On March 15, 1997, the Edmonton Oilers defeated the Hartford Whalers 4-2. At that time, Edmonton had a strong group of forwards, led by Doug Weight, Jason Arnott, Ryan Smyth and Andrei Kovalenko. In fact, Edmonton had so many good forwards it was difficult to get all the skill players proper skill minutes. On that night, Glen Sather must have been close to a trade that would live in infamy for the rest of his days.
THE ATHLETIC!
I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.
- New Lowetide: Oilers Top 20 prospects, post-draft edition.
- New Lowetide: Finding Connor McDavid’s optimal linemates among 2020-21 Oilers
- New Jonathan Willis: A cautious free agent period boosts an Oilers team still on the upswing
- New Lowetide: Oilers prospects poised to benefit after offseason news.
- New Lowetide: Oilers bring back Mike Smith for another year.
- New Lowetide: Oilers sign Tyson Barrie to a team-friendly deal.
- New Lowetide: Oilers sign Kyle Turris, Tyler Ennis in early hours of free agency.
- Lowetide: Ken Holland will need to be creative in free agency
- Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi signing overshadows a strong day for Oilers at draft
- Lowetide: Oilers draft Dylan Holloway on Day 1, with trades possible Wednesday
- Lisa Dillman: Dylan Holloway could be a ‘difference-maker’ for the Oilers
- Eric Duhatschek: Connor McDavid’s positive COVID-19 test stirs debate about the next NHL season
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers could benefit both now and in the future by adding a right-shot defender
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s work week: Get good players, keep good players
- Lowetide: Oilers’ defence prospects are pushing, and changes are coming
- Lowetide: Potential trades and partners for the Oilers’ offseason
- Lowetide: Dealing a defenceman? Taking stock of Oilers’ blueline assets
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Oilers GM Ken Holland on improving internally, the flat cap and goaltending
- Lowetide: Oilers Top 20 Prospects, Summer 2020
WINGS OVER HARTFORD
It’s been a long time and we don’t have the modern tools, but here are my guesses for wingers that night against Hartford: Ryan Smyth (39), Andrei Kovalenko (32), Mike Grier (15), Marius Czerkawski (26), Miro Satan (17), Joe Hulbig (0), Kelly Buchberger (8), Petr Klima (2). That would have meant (if I’m correct) Dean McAmmond (12) and Todd Marchant (14) were out (one possibly hurt) and Louie DeBrusk (2) was a healthy scratch.
I’m counting Doug Weight (21), Jason Arnott (19), Mats Lindgren (11) and Rem Murray (11) as centers.
Steve Kelly was a week from being recalled, Ralph Intranuovo two weeks from being recalled.
From here, it’s easy to tell Slats to release Klima, pick DeBrusk over Hulbig and that Steve Kelly wasn’t going to be all that. It doesn’t work that way.
The legend goes that Ron Low couldn’t find a spot for all of the skill wingers, and if you look at those names, well maybe it isn’t obvious how good these players were. Here, let me go back and post their goal totals for the 1996-97 season. I’ll be back in a sec.
Okay. This morning I wrote a post-draft ranking at The Athletic and it’s becoming clear that, if things continue, there won’t be room for all of the talent that is coming down the pipeline.
I don’t think the prospects are in danger, they represent value deals. No, I think it behooves us to contemplate a defensive six that includes Philip Broberg, Evan Bouchard, Dmitri Samorukov being added to Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones and the veterans who the club decides to keep.
Meaning the endangered ones are the defenseman who are making the big dollars. Not just Adam Larsson and Kris Russell, either. I think this is going to get interesting.
William Lagesson and Martin Marincin
I wrote the following about Martin Marincin about seven weeks before he was traded.
What do the numbers tell us? Martin Marincin is going to have a career. Tough zone starts, second-pairing minutes, his Corsi for % at 5×5 isn’t far from even. He isn’t going to score a lot but really he’s well priced for a third pairing blue—and he can play either side.
He’ll never be top 4D with that offense. In about one full season, we’re looking at 11 points, so no, not a lot of offense. He should be able to help at evens and on the PK, and is already facing the tough ZS’s. Just a kid too, very useful player who is under contract and miles from big money. More please.
You think they’ll trade him, don’t you? Yes.
Why? I think there was some kind of disconnect. Conditioning? Something along those lines. And then maybe he didn’t respond well to the wakeup call? Don’t know. Something. Either way, he’s in the jailhouse now.
Can he recover? Yes. I hope he plans to work out in Edmonton this summer, similar to the work Bogdan Yakimov did last summer. I think the Oilers will eventually require their prospects to attend a summer camp, maybe with the new draft picks.
They already do that, though. Not with guys like Marincin. They bring in guys from the current draft, some college men, and maybe a few guys who are still in junior or just starting pro. Marincin has been in pro hockey since 2012 fall.
Who did he play well with? Everyone. Pretty much everyone.
Right. Haha. No, seriously. Here’s the Corsi for 5×5%’s: Mark Fayne 46.3; Justin Schultz 56.9; Niki Nikitin 54.9; Jeff Petry 58.7. He did have some downward numbers but none among his primary partners.
Is there any good reason to trade Marincin? I think you could make the argument Marincin is the least likely of the good kids to be able to help in a big way at maturation.
Good kids? Klefbom, Nurse, Marincin.
Why would they trade him? As Edmonton turns north, inexperienced defensemen will become less plentiful. The Oilers will bring Nurse up at some point this coming season, suspect Klefbom will be the only youngster in the top six when that happens.
Does Marincin have value? Oh yes. If you put Marincin with the No. 16 pick, I think you could expect a quality return. An NHL defenseman with experience and term.
Do you have any recent examples? Something like the Jay Bouwmeester to St. Louis trade. Calgary received goalie Reto Berra, defensemen Mark Cundari and the No. 22 overall selection in the 2013 draft. The Flames chose Emile Poirier.
So, Marincin and the No. 16 pick represents similar value? Yes. I think so.
Will a new coach see him good? I don’t know if a new coach sees him at all. Chiarelli will have an opinion on him, but we already know MacT’s decision and his usually remain final. MM is in a tough spot as an Oiler, because the spot he’ll occupy on the team next season is easily duplicated.
Who can play his spot? Most of the NHL defensemen are best-suited for 5-6D. Niki Nikitin, Andrew Ference, Justin Schultz, it would have been nice to have Klefbom there for a year and of course Nurse would be best served by a season there. Brandon Davidson, David Musil…
I get it. Lots of them. Yes.
What about as the partner for Mark Fayne on the severe ZS pairing? That’s a good fit in my opinion, based on what is currently on the roster. Suspect Chiarelli may want to aim higher.
What would you like to see? I would move heaven and earth to acquire three defensemen, including a complete top pairing, like Sekera—Seabrook. The second pairing would be Klefbom—Petry and the third pairing Marincin—Fayne.
What about Ference, Nikitin and Schultz? What ABOUT Ference, Nikitin and Schultz?
So you’d turn over pretty much the entire defense as it stands? Yes. Easy decision really. I’d keep Klefbom and Marincin, plus Fayne for the tough ZS’s.
A GM can’t turn over that much of the roster in one summer. In the year before he arrived as GM, Boston’s top 7D: Hal Gill (1489 minutes); Brian Leetch (1434); Brad Stuart (1412); Nick Boynton (1115); David Tanabe (1087); Andrew Alberts (936) and Milan Jurcina (839).
And the following year? Zdeno Chara (2237 minutes); Andrew Alberts (1495); Paul Mara (1290); Brad Stuart (1100); Jason York (640); Andrew Ference (581) and Aaron Ward (432).
So he turned over a lot of the roster that first summer? Well, during the year, too. Lots of trades, including acquiring Andrew Ference and Aaron Ward. He would pick up Dennis Wideman in Feb. 2007 too, and turned over pretty much the entire rig in quick order. In a cap world.
Lots of names flying out? That is my guess, although Klefbom and Nurse are extremely likely to be a big part of the future in Edmonton.
William Lagesson
Lagesson could easily get passed by Philip Broberg and Dmitri Samorukov, hell Ethan Bear and Caleb Jones were drafted after the Swedish blue and they’re already in the NHL. Maybe Lagesson’s eight NHL career games may be the extent of his career, but I don’t think so. I believe the Oilers are curious to see Lagesson play, and further see him as a possible solution to the shutdown blue position when Adam Larsson leaves (possibly a year from now). I think he may take some playing time from Kris Russell in the year ahead. We wait.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A busy morning, TSN 1260 starting at 10. Steve Lansky from Inside the Truck podcast will join me to talk World Series, Joe Morgan and Ken Holland’s fixes. Matt Iwanyk pops in at 10, we’ll chat NFL, and the idea of a Canadian division for the NHL in 2020-21. Any news that breaks we’ll have it, and there’s some money to give away, too. See you there!
Nate Schmidt had a modified no-trade clause.
That limited Mccrimmon’s options and essentially lowered the price.
Winnipeg inquired about Schmidt, but unsurprisingly was on the no-trade list.
The Canucks benefited from Vancouver being a desirable destination city.
Happy/sad to have seemingly started a Nurse discussion, but the fact is he’s not yet considered the defensive monster he projected to be in his rookie + seasons.
He’s a good player, a developing player, but the NHL goes out and arbitrates salaries while at the same time demanding a freaking cap!?
In case anyone wants to know what a seriously good team would probably do with Nurse and his greedy agent – a good/great team would weigh up the pros and cons, and unless Nurse + his agent caved they would be headed out of town; NOT at their convenience like Kevin “Yhe Hit Man” Lowe would do.
Instead, when, no matter how long it takes, the team can arrange a trade with any team who wants to get in on a chance to grab a potentially top young NHL defender. And therefore makes a big overpay.
The alternative which sucks on a scale of infinity, is letting Nurse walk and watching him explode into a top defenceman.
If the Canucks had agreed to the asking prices of Markstrom and Tanev they would not have been in a position to land Schmidt.
That Vegas immediately turned to the Canucks, literally within a couple hours after signing Pietrangelo, you have to know that the Schmidt deal was already a done deal. Several league sources indicated they had no idea Schmidt was even available.
Call it dumb luck if you like, but it was a tidy piece of work.
I never said differently. I said that a lot of the ideas behind sending Nurse to Seattle in order to dump the last two years of Neal involved a lot of conjecture and hypotheticals.
Which I think it does.
If there is a move to make you make it. I don’t cheer for or get attached to individual players. But a year from now is a long ways to be projecting entry draft moves.
The Canucks bled openly in free agency, with several terrific and expensive players exiting. They bled SO much money and were unable to sign suitable replacements that the Vegas offer was manna from heaven
If falling ass over tea kettle into blind luck was a skill, Benning would be Gretzky.
In a flat cap world, there will be many, opportunities that don’t involve signing UFAs.
Vancouver just got Nate Schmidt, who is a better defenseman that Nurse, for a third round pick two years from now.
Schmidt is signed for another 4 seasons at $5.95 million.
As many dumb moves as Benning has made, he has been able to pick up Schmidt and a PPG top line forward for drafts picks.
In the next few weeks, some GM with cap space is going to rape the TBL and there will be many teams in cap hell for a few seasons to come.
Not signing players to over market value will be a key to success.
🙂
They can’t all be value contracts though. That’s not a reasonable ask of any team or GM.
That is a lot of supposition, of course.
That Nurse will want more than he is worth.
That a better value dman capable of replacing his skill will be let go by another team.
That that free agent will choose to sign in Edmonton for less money.
That Nurse cannot be traded for greater value than letting him walk and using the FA market.
I think that many hypotheticals is a bit premature to speculate on.
Maybe they will buy out Lucic….oh wait…hehehe
The key here, IMHO, is whether or not Nurse is a value (non-replaceable) contract. If we weren’t in a flat-cap world, I would agree that we would have to overpay for his (and Neal’s for that matter) replacement. But as we’ve seen this year (and I believe next year as well), there hasn’t been much overpaying except for a few players like Matt Murray (salary), Markstrom (term) and Josh Anderson (both).
As I see it, the Oilers have value contracts in McDavid, Draisaitl, Jones, Yammamoto, Barrie and 1-2 others if you squint hard enough. At $5.6 mln plus whatever he asks for in 2022, I don’t see Darnell in that category as much as I appreciate his skill set.
Get good value contracts, keep good value contracts and spend to the cap.
LT, I think you should adopt the Q&A format for your articles at the You practically surrounded Marincin in that one.
That is debatable.
You have to replace Neal as well as Nurse.
If he is a 4th liner with PP ability I think you need to pencil in about $1.5 M to replace that. The 4th liner isn’t much but the PP ability bumps it.
Then you have to replace Nurse in FA. You always have to overpay for UFA’s.
I think that if the decision is made that Nurse has priced himself out of his value to this team I would rather see if there is a top 6 winger available in trade.
Maybe that is just me.
Yes it does. The NHL is a salary cap efficiency contest (paraphrasing something Woodguy said a few years ago). Oilers will be able to get equivalent value for Nurse’s $5.6 mln ticket next year in this environment. The pick plus the extra $1.9 mln will be gravy.
One can call Petry a #3D but would be hard pressed to find 60 plus better d-men in the league (and he signed at a cap hit almost a million under that threshold).
Many legit top pairing d-men make less and are signing for less than $7.3M.
rickithebear,
Okay, I’ll bite.
Russell-Benning
and who else makes your team if you’re Oilers GM for a season?
You repeat yourself often about top open d-men to their side being preferable to rickibox abandoning rovers, but you rarely spell out options/alternatives.
I did appreciate your calling Archibald a value player before Holland signed him.
I wonder who else is on your radar.
Wasn’t Mike Smith the top Ricki goaler a year ago?
Nothing more interesting than people who suggest that the #6 def dman in the league needs to be traded so we can get more offence By asking more Dmen to abandon defence of High danger area.
Which will give us more worse than 3.00 evga/60 dman depth.
Especially in playoffs that teams do not give up more than 2Ga in each of the 4 wins in final 4 series.
26 yrs of 4+ top,60:def Dmen.
But the solution is 3+ bottom 30 def Dmen for oilers 1980’s ( boysvon the Bus) hockey Analytics.
To top it off they all believe you can shoot Thru a goalie as easily as open space.
Go away you 80’s Oiler hippies.
6 third pairing D
Now that’s the way championships are built
Perhaps Lagesson is that better bigger player that can pass and deal with the boards and net front better?
Most on here rate a player by the tough situation they are asked to play and the high minute count they are. Asked to play.
If a play has bottom 30 results of 217 Dmen.
That is not a valueable player.
That is a player in over their heds.
Nurse and Bear and Klefbom.
Cannot perform the defence needed to be a successful Final 4 team.
A 1.00 to 2.00 GAA in 4 games in every final 4 series (Elite HD open sh reduction) from a 4-6/dman (2 or 3 Dpairs) deep 2D – 1G HD area Defence system.
You have no chance of winning in last 2 rd1 of playoffs otherwise.
Has been like that for 26 yrs.
LAK proved you can win a cup with the #28:goal scoring team.
Dallas won a Conf Championship with the 29 th best goal total in reg season.
All everyone talks about offence.
Even from Dmen.
Completely out of touch with what wins championships.
Backwards looking contracts signed years ago. I gave four contracts signed this year and last for #3D or #4Dplusplus from $6.25 to $6.5 million.
One can add Brodin’s new contract at $6 million Spurgeon’s at over $7.5 million.
You have to look at where the market is, not where it was.
As it turns out, the bump doesn’t occur until 2021/22:
CBA §11.12(a) amended to provide:
Season Minimum Salary
2019-20 $700,000
2020-21 $700,000
2021-22 $750,000
2022-23 $750,000
2023-24 $775,000
2024-25 $775,000
2025-26 $775,000
Well…Vasilevsky won the cup & Koski had the same stat numbers posted by Georges. I’m ok with that for the next couple of years. Great job Georges…
Or bees. He hates bees!!!
I don’t know if you are missing anything but to me that doesn’t make sense.
I would rather eat the 4 year buyout for Neal than trade Nurse to get rid of him and either keep Nurse or trade him for a top 6 winger if his cap hit becomes too high to justify.
I just don’t see how using him to dump two years of Neal’s contract is a move that can improve the team.
I just read all of it again. That’s a long second…this waiting socks…?
What am I missing?
The 62nd highest cap hit (including newly signed deals) is $4.8M.
There are only 14 d-man with cap hits of $7.3M or greater.
Also
The cap has changed what players need to be able to do
Because it has created parity every player needs to have NHL skills
That starts with enough skating. Followed by the ability to handle the biscuit including the ability to pass at a reasonable level
The difference should be in the ability to get points. Less points, less pay. Some could be opportunities, some could be vision or ability, but carrying players that can’t skate and pass is a net drag as I see it
I think people are discounting the idea of teams running with 21 or 22 players on the roster when looking at cap hits right now. I mentioned this the other day as well. Why would you pay people to sit in the PB if they are playing for your farm team in the same city when money is tight everywhere?
As to Treliving being finished I think that applies to every GM in the league. Some are sitting back and watching right now because of cap issues but the need to trade rather than sign has increased dramatically with the flat cap and there could be two months of inactivity before we even have an idea if there will be a season this year.
Lots of road before anybody gets to TC.
I think KH is doing what he has because of the expansion draft
And of course Klef and luckily losing out on Markstrom
Although I wonder if he has become over decades a master strategist as he should have become
I would like a trade of Russell and a better bigger player that can pass and deal with the boards and net front better
But I think we’ll see what we have and Lagesson getting enough games to qualify for the expansion draft
With D injuries it isn’t a stretch
Broberg
https://youtu.be/S0M5r0E_AEs
Yeah, but if the AHL teams move to Canada, it’ll be pretty easy to run with a 21-22 man roster since call ups will be just down the hall.
In any event, Treleving is saying after the Mangiapane signing that he may not be done.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/will-flames-still-consider-altering-core-early-off-season-moves/
Interesting and positive take on Bouchard by a Canucks fan. Must be related to HH
https://youtu.be/OkzLgMalNnk
This amounts to trading Nurse for a 2nd and an extra $1.9 M in cap space for 4 years.
You sure that makes sense?
I’m not sure who gets credit for that signing but I think it has to be Playfair or Tippett telling Holland “the sooner the better”.
You might be on to something, can you email this to Ken.
That would be the max I would think given Jones was simply more established when he signed that contract (although he didn’t really “pop” to that next step until, well, right after he signed).
Man, that Jones contract was a shocker value deal the second he signed it and looking like ridiculous value 20 games later.
$850k for two years on Jones – shit, I can’t fathom him not being a must-protect
I really hope that selling at the deadline is not what Holland is doing in the 2021/22 season…….
If you substituted the word “Petry” for “Nurse”, (and “Weber” for “Klefbom”) it reads pretty much the same. Nurse is vitally important and has played monster minutes (approaching 30 minutes in the regular season).
Nurse
The Jet’s ask would start with RNH and go up from there.
My After the Gold Rush defenseman play next;
Trade Nurse to the Kraken for a 2022 2nd round pick and them taking Neal’s contract. This puts the Oilers in Cap Nirvana for the flat cap/prime Mcdavid years.
Put Klefbom on a load management program allowing him to weeks off at a time while blooding the young troops.
With Nurse, Neal, Russell and Chiason’s contacts exiting next summer the possibilities would be incredible.
Defensive zone awareness and holding his ground (i.e. not going walkabout and puck chasing while leaving the RickiBox unprotected).
Wait a second, Barrie Moore was parlayed in to Brad Church and, well, the line ends there.
Craig Millar, though, was traded for a 3rd round pick where the Oilers chose future 1C, Mike Comrie.
Without obtaining Mike Comrie, we couldn’t have flipped him for, among others, years of talk about Rob Schremp but, more importantly, Danny Syvret turning into 70 games of Ryan Potulny, and, of course, Jeff Woywikta who was likely integral in the Pronger acquisition……
Rodrigue now with two wins in two pro games – stops 28 of the 30 in a 3-2 OTW.
Tnx
Neil…….man….thanks LT
5 spots to fill after Kylington contract is signed. It’s going to be tight.
Calgary currently has $4 million in cap space with only Kylington who should come in around $1 million left to sign.
They have a bunch of promising players like Phillips, Gawden, Philip on cheap deals they can use to fill out the roster.