Dylan Holloway is either a complementary winger on a scoring line, an effective checking center, or the Oilers missed the mark in the first round of the 2020 draft.
It looked to me as though all of the obvious names came off the board right in front of Edmonton, leaving three names on my list (Dawson Mercer, Mavrik Bourque, Connor Zary) in the range. Oilers chose a better athlete and a faster skater.
Is he a better hockey player?
THE ATHLETIC!
I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.
- New Lowetide: Oilers extend Kris Russell, solve expansion issue
- Lowetide: Can Kyle Turris centre an outscoring No. 3 line in Edmonton?
- Lowetide: Tyson Barrie’s skills and how Oilers coach Dave Tippett will deploy him
- Jonathan Willis: Can Oilers unlock James Neal’s scoring potential at five on five?
- Lowetide: Why is Ilya Konovalov no longer starting in the KHL?
- Lowetide: Oilers Top 20 prospects, post-draft edition.
- Lowetide: Finding Connor McDavid’s optimal linemates among 2020-21 Oilers
- Jonathan Willis: A cautious free agent period boosts an Oilers team still on the upswing
- Lowetide: Oilers bring back Mike Smith for another year.
- Lowetide: Oilers sign Tyson Barrie to a team-friendly deal.
- Lowetide: Oilers sign Kyle Turris, Tyler Ennis in early hours of free agency.
- Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi signing overshadows a strong day for Oilers at draft
- Lowetide: Oilers draft Dylan Holloway on Day 1, with trades possible Wednesday
I rated Holloway No. 25 overall, saying “Big power forward. Strong skater, nice range of skills” in my “Here Comes the Sun” final ranking on June 1. Months went by, the draft did not come. Finally, we got a date for the 2020 selection. I thought about tweaking my list in the weeks before the draft, but decided against it.
Why? I believed that since the math didn’t move over the summer, it would be a reach, beyond what my list tries to do. My list is a math list, more of a “hey Mr. Scout, why do you hate Seth Jarvis?” than pointing out some non-statistical progression made by a player. My work was done. As the great Clint Eastwood said, a man’s got to know his limitations.
So, I left my list where it is and stand by it. My list says the Calgary Flames got a better player despite drafting later in the first round of the 2020 draft, and we’ll see how the story unfolds.
There are people who drill down and look for answers in the video, and one of best is Scott Wheeler at The Athletic. Wheeler went deep, and I mean deep, on Holloway as a prospect (here) and finds a player who brings a unique skill set to every game.
I didn’t use that piece in my evaluation, and did not refer to it in my recent ranking, but absolutely believe you should read it. Wheeler’s evaluation could match the opinion of Edmonton’s scouts. I guarantee you will walk away from that article with a better knowledge of Holloway the player. I will be referring to it in future when discussing Holloway.
One final note: Wheeler did the same thing last season with Raphael Lavoie, who finds myriad ways to get his shot on net (and scores often). Wheeler’s work is original. It is worth your time.
MOST LIKELY OILERS ROSTER
As much fun as it is to add one or two late pieces to this roster, it’s possible Ken Holland will run with this unit. Oscar Klefbom’s LTIR means there is $2.57 million in room and that seems reasonable based on the high degree of unknown re: The defenseman’s injury status. The most likely move remains a right-wing dealt for a left wing or a pick, meaning the club would be free to sign Dominik Kahun or other. Maybe Josh Leivo arrives at a bargain price.
I’ve mentioned this before, but the Oilers had a good middle of the 2020 draft. Tullio and Savoie (imo) were second-round talents plucked in later rounds, similar to the Jones-Bear 2015 run.
I had Holloway No. 25, Tullio No. 53, Savoie No. 56 and Berezkin No. 122. Math liked the draft based on where Edmonton picked and what was procured. The one exception is Holloway, and Wheeler’s words are a fascinating counterpoint.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, we kickstart the weekend on TSN1260. NHL GM meetings start at the same time, if there’s any news on the start of the 2020-21 NHL season we’ll have it live. Steve Lansky from Inside the Truck podcast will chat World Series, and what are we going to watch between the World Series and the World Juniors? At 11, Matthew Iwanyk will pop in and chat World Series, NFL and Covid-19 worries in regard to Edmonton hosting the WJ’s. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
Yep, got a bottle in my cabinet. Really smooth and a great contrast to the peaty stuff I generally prefer.
Hmmm. Might have to grab one later tonight.
Yes, Barrie still played lots vs elites even with the smaller %TOI, and he’s been heavily used at 5v5 through his career. Good to see the actual minutes gap that represents.
I generally use %TOI vs elites numbers to get a sense of how coaches have used a player and and whether they were asked/trusted in defensive roles, then add that as context to their overall results.
For sure. They do have a lot of nice pieces if things click.
“I hesitate because Barrie has played easier minutes than Klefbom. Barrie’s coaches have consistently sheltered him to some degree every year. It’s not extreme (generally not like Benning was sheltered this year) but he has not been asked to face top line opposition with regularity.”
Here are some numbers I pulled from PuckIQ:
Klef
Season, GP, % TOI vs Elites, TOI/GP vs Elites
19-20, 62, 33.3, 5:56
18-19, 61, 35.1, 6:32
17-18, 66, 32.3, 5:28
16-17, 82, 34.8, 5:59
Barrie
Season, GP, % TOI vs Elites, TOI/GP vs Elites
19-20, 70, 24.2, 4:23
18-19, 78, 31.8, 5:22
17-18, 68, 32.0, 5:42
16-17, 74, 27.8, 5:12
Overall, I have Klef playing 271 games and 5:58 a night against elites and Barrie playing 290 games and 5:10 a night against elites. A 48 second difference, which is what, 1 shift? Klefbom has played 6 shifts a night against elites and Barrie has played 5 shifts a night against elites.
Last season may have had more to do with the Leafs being an analytics org. and deciding it’s better to have their defensive defensemen defend and their offensive defensemen attack. Play to strengths as it were. Even then, the difference between Klef and Barrie was 1:33 ice time a night against elites as PuckIQ defines it. That’s 1.5 shifts. 6 shifts a night for Klef, 4.5 shifts a night for Barrie.
Barrie played 1269 5v5 minutes for the Leafs last season. That was almost 200 more minutes than the second place guy, Justin Holl. When you play a lot of minutes, a small looking percentage may still result in a reasonable amount of ice time.
Just some things to keep in mind when interpreting the PuckIQ % TOI numbers.
Yeah, agreed, but I was just commenting on the coming season. More to the point, I guess, would be if the young centres are ready.
I’m mystified why many want to pay assets AND $2.8M for a goalie (Korpisalo) who’s SV% has been .905, .897, .897, .911 over the past 4 seasons.
He had a great playoffs, yes. But of 51 goalies to play 90 games over the past 4 years (Korpisalo played 96) he’s 48th of 51 in regular season SV%. Massive red flags IMO.
Not really relevant for the upcoming season but those players are locked up for a lot of money and for a long time…
Petry is the youngest/cheapest/shortest deal and he’s due $6M+ through age 37.
Age is just a number until it’s not.
That’s one of the issues with PuckIQ (maybe not an issue, but a nuance you need to be aware of); teams vary a fair bit in how many elite players they have/face. I assume it’s related to the strength of division teams are play in (I recall seeing some teams some years where 4 D hit 40%TOIvElites, which no Oiler of any position has done since Nuge in 16-17).
I looked tonight before posting, Barrie was 5th in %TOI vs elites on the Avs most/all years, despite those raw numbers looking like they mean 2nd pair comp (if you’re used to looking at the Oilers). I assume the Central has more ‘elite’ players than the Pacific does.
Paying essentially $10M for a guy who’s only scored 50 points once (5 seasons ago) and another guy who’s never scored 50 (and actually has only 1 season over 30 points) is definitely far from a certainty.
His last four years in Colorado, Barrie played 32, 32, 29, 28 percent of time against elites – while that may not be top comp minutes, its not really sheltered and legit top 4, no?
Low resolution analysis, I’m sure, but when looking at the win-loss record of the Oilers with Klefbom in-out of the lineup, what does that say in contrast to his fancy stats that appear lacking?
I hesitate because Barrie has played easier minutes than Klefbom. Barrie’s coaches have consistently sheltered him to some degree every year. It’s not extreme (generally not like Benning was sheltered this year) but he has not been asked to face top line opposition with regularity.
Barrie also essentially hasn’t PKed in his career (the guy has played just shy of 150 4v5 minutes in 8 seasons, though his numbers in those minutes are exceptional FWIW).
And Klefbom has much stronger underlying numbers than his GF/GA results. I’d generally argue harder for those but he’s been underperforming them so long I’m no longer sure.
I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Barrie is an improvement on Klefbom (also wouldn’t be surprised if he plays wth Nurse all year). But I’m not certain of it. Maybe Barrie is exactly what the team needed, that would be cool. The team might also miss Klefbom eating those minutes more than we realize.
I’m very optimistic about Barrie but remain concerned about the Oilers D corp, if that makes sense.
I thought the same thing.
And I wondered that. Makes a lot of sense in that case!!
Sam Gagner
Has anyone here tried Green Spot Irish whisky?
I might be biased because I just finished about four fingers, but I think it is delicious.
Sounds like you have a Hairy Harpy problem
You know your figures are inflated as only elite first pairing D on their retirement contracts get that kind of money you quote for Nurse and Bear. Yamamoto and Bear will also be well under your figures as well in that they will be rfa signings. You are pretty much 1 to 2 million high on each of the players you mentioned. The one exception is Nuge who may get 7 depending on length of contract. These kind of posts are intended to irritate which is why you get your troll reputation. Given you above the Oilers Vancouver having to sign Hughes and Peterson must have you in a cold sweat.
They spam the site. It usually happens overnight, so I wake up to it. The new system Go Daddy put in, which is a real pain in the ass for everyone, does seem to work.
I’m surprised they will even bother to play the games!
If Holland or whomever is doing his job those excelling players become future assets as they lose their position to cheaper players that can do the job.
Fails in this regard are letting players that have value (in normal circumstances) walk for cap space without acquiring assets for them, to feed the system which can offset the effect of sustained success dropping the odds on drafted players being impact players because of draft position, or to fill holes.
Another fail is creating cap space and burning too much on bloated UFA contracts that rarely deliver value.
We’ll see how Holland manages the leftorium and coming cap space.
Time doesn’t stand still, there will be new players drafted and trades made.
It is up to the competency of the management team in the end.
The difference between Barrie’s 5on5 plus minus and his NHL calculated plus minus is striking.
The comparison with Klefbom is also striking.
This could be the ace in the hole.
Agreed that Barrie’s value is much more than on the PP – he is an elite driver of offence from the back-end at 5 on 5.
I can’t say that he’s “better than Klefbom” as their games so different. Playing 33-35 percent of his TOI against elites is not Barrie’s game but he also can play some tough minutes and doesn’t need to be sheltered. He isn’t a great defender but he’s not a total black hole and, once the puck is retrieved in the defensive zone, good things happen.
If Brogan Rafferty records a cover of Gerry Rafferty’s Baker Street, which Canucks player performs the Sax Solo?
I gotta go with Q Hughes The dude just looks musical. Pretty much everything Pettersson touches turns to gold as well. JT Miller looks like a fiery guy and like could prob lay down a great sax Solo. Louis Erickson could be good but you know he’d want a huge cut on the financials and prob royalties and he might only show up for 50 percent of the recordings.
LoL
I must have missed the thread that day
All signings carry a risk.
Remember when the Oilers signed Lucic?
As for your lineup…
If Nuge is still around he’ll be making more than $7 million.
If JP is a top line winger, he’ll be making $5 million +
If Yamamoto is a legit top six winger he’ll be making $5 million.
If Nurse is a legit top pairing D he’ll be making $8 million.
If Bear is a legit top pairing D he’ll be making $7 million.
Jones should easily come in at $3 million.
Of course you still have Kassian in the lineup at $3.2 million
That’s more than $38 million with McDavid and Draisaitl taking up another $21 million for a total of about $60 million for only 9 players.
You still need to add 14 players for $21 million including a fourth line and none of Benson, Berglund or Samorukov are likely to hang around into their mid twenties waiting for a chance to play.
Even if your feverish dream were come to pass, it would all crater the following season when most of your cheap deals come to an end.
Oh, and counting on two goaltenders who haven’t established themselves in the NHL is a recipe for disaster.
It’s not that Klef isn’t a good defensemen. He just isn’t a 25 minutes a night defenseman like Tippett tried to make him out to be this year. I think he’d be fine as a 20-21 minute defenseman. Unfortunately, he’s played for a team that’s forced him into a role he’s not suited for. To be fair, the team has a habit of doing that though. Klef isn’t being singled out.
Very few players can play the minutes that the team has asked Klef to play in the past two seasons. It’s hard to play 24 minutes or more a night effectively. That’s not Klef’s fault. That’s on coaching and management.
Barrie has played 23 minutes a night on that historically bad COL team. He’s played less than 22 minutes in the past two seasons. Now Barrie has much better puck skills and the offensive numbers to match. But he doesn’t play 24 minutes a night. It is really, really hard to play monster minutes in the NHL.
The night is young. 😉
I looked at these numbers as well.
It’s hard to pin numbers to defensemen. Most defensemen don’t seem to make an on-ice difference in results. Results follow forwards. Defensemen act like a background. At least by the numbers.
Klef is dangerously close to having bad enough numbers that they stand out statistically. They suggest the team does worse with Klef on the ice than without him. The dodgy company he keeps at the bottom of the GF% Rel barrel doesn’t help his case.
If you watch Klef play, you can see things he does and doesn’t do to earn those results. He makes bad reads, he lets pucks go through him, he’s too polite, his stick and skating skills are just OK. Nurse can skate to catch up to some of his mistakes, Klef can’t. Nurse can play nasty to discourage certain plays from opposing forwards. Klef can’t. And Klef doesn’t do enough with the puck on his stick to make up for his defensive warts.
You made a very good case for Barrie but stopped short of calling it.
Being healthy and staying healthy are not the same.
Back to back seasons with missed games – he may not be the same player he was 3-4 years ago.
That’s speculation but I simply said its a risk – he may not be a legit top 6 forward.
Good players produce on bad teams – Toffoli had a couple really poor years. Again, simply said its a risk, he’s likely not the revitalized player we saw in Vancouver but likely better than the middling guy in LA for a few years
Holloway will be on his ELC in 3 years.
Bouchard will be on his ELC in 3 years.
Lavoie will be on his ELC in 3 years
Broberg will be on his ELC in 3 years
Benson will be on a cheap contract and, if he’s expensive, well, then there is your top line 1LW allowing Holloway to play 3C and McLeod at 4C
That team will have no cap issues, even with a likely $82.5M cap.
There are no posters in moderation at this time.
These are the words I flag in all posts:
Trump
Trudeau
bitcoin
Bitcoin
Viagra
military
cialis
Is post length something that triggers moderation? Or keywords?
No.
Or did I use some words that are getting caught by your spam filter?
Although I consider Klef more of a 2-way guy (and he’s better when he doesn’t try and drive offence at evens), Benning’s results with Klef over the years provide some evidence for your belief.
Are you screening my comments, LT?
I was one of Benning’s bigger fans on here, and I still think he had more to give, but given amount of minutes and usage, I don’t think there is any value in comparing his plus/minus with Klef’s.
Ha, good point on the original six.
Don’t get me wrong, I’ll take the Canadian Division over no hockey, 100%, but I seem to one of the few Oiler fans that aren’t enthused about the proposition – it’ll get old fast (but, again, I’ll still be excited to watch every game, just like now).
Barrie is a different class of defenseman from Klef. If you replace Klef with Barrie, your defense is better. Probably a lot better.
Who’s the last D the team had that had puck skills like Barrie? Visnovsky? Schultz, if you stretch. No one close since Schultz. The CMD years have been played in front of a D corps that can’t make plays with the puck. Bear played with some flair but not enough to consistently impact the game.
Barrie isn’t a third pairing PP specialist. That’s crazy. On this team?
He’s playing with Nurse, soaking up maximum CMD minutes. He might fix the need for winger help for CMD.
Hopefully, that lets Tip reunite Nuge with Drai and KY. The organization has to invest in KY. It’s dangerous not to. Where KY goes, so go the Oilers.
I was going to quote some GF/GA numbers as well, but this misses the mark by some margin IMO.
+/- penalizes offensive types like Barrie disproportionately. Klefbom plays some of those situations too (empty net, PP) but not close to as many as Barrie.
For their careers at 5on5 (which removes SH goals against and EN goals against) Barrie is +2 while Klefbom is -61. That’s not a typo, the gap is massive.
AND that includes Barrie being -28 in 16-17 on an Avs team that was the 2nd worst team in the last decade (the Oilers have been chronically bad but never close to THAT bad).
Barrie has consistently outscored the opposition. Klefbom has only done it once in his career.
To correct for strength of team we can use Relative GF% and SF%. In the past 3 seasons (among the 189 defensemen to play 1700 minutes) Klefbom was 97th in SF%Relative to his teammates and 178th in GF%Rel. Barrie was 61st in SF%Rel and 53rd in GF%Rel. Barrie performed notably better than his teammates in shots for % and goals for % when he was on the ice. Klefbom was average in shots for % and terrible in GF%.
Klefbom did face more difficult minutes and competition by not by a massive margin. And Barrie also brings top 10 in the league even strength offense among defensemen while Klefbom was 136th of the 189 most used defensemen.
Klefbom and Barrie are very different players, and Klefbom does some things Barrie doesn’t do well. I’m not sure Klefbom is the “better player” overall though (you didn’t say that but a number of others have in this thread).
You can’t quantify it. Math is a language that allows for precision in describing quantitative relationships between different objects where the discrete comparatives essential ontological characteristic is one of sameness. As that sameness decreases its precision erodes, lessening its precision. Humans are the least ‘same discrete comparatives’ in nature so math is useless in this regard.
I made a comment about Ralph Krueger the other day and I think it was Godot that got all miffed because I really don’t like Ralph’s personality.
That is as much on me as it is on Ralph, of course. I just don’t like ‘cheerleader, pom pom waving, the world is wonderful & things couldn’t be better’ personalities all that much. They get on my nerves. Ralph gets on my nerves.
I think he is a very good coach for tournaments – short term interactions – but I could never be around him for a whole season without it affecting me. Maybe he is good with really young, immature players.
So it isn’t always the coach either. Players have personalities. But I do know that if you respect, like, love, despise, dislike, or hate your boss it shows up in your work. That’s the part that you can’t quantify.
Synoptics versus analytics.
The Flames are quietly exploiting the flat cap.
https://theathletic.com/2157699/2020/10/23/flames-depth-chart-2020-21/?amp#click=https://t.co/oY8F3UedSA
Yeah… there are an awful lot of variables.
For example, John Tortorella was an absolute disaster in Vancouver but has rated very high in his time in Columbus.
He admits he had to change his approach in the modern game but was able to adapt.
Another example is a team like Vancouver where Travis Green seems to be very good at bringing young players like Pettersson and Hughes into the system but has had challenges with Jake Virtanen.
I guess much of that depends on the player rather than the coach but how do you quantify that?
Agreed. I have tried to do that in the past but my knowledge of the bottom pairings and bottom 6 forwards around the league always fails me.
I think the importance of the coaching staffs has a lot to do with the maturity of the team (younger teams need a different type personality than an older group.
The technical side really needs a series to show up in wins and losses as you said but I think we sometimes forget that 20 year olds still need somebody that knows when to pat them on the back and when to give them a kick in the butt.
That is where I see the most difference.
I will note, that Montreal would not have acquired Anderson if he was not fully healthy.
I will also note that Toffoli surged as soon as he left the Kings who have been amongst the lowest scoring team in the league for years and found himself on a team that emphasizes attack.
In order to cut down multi post clutter, I also note the lineup in three years you posted a while back is totally unrealistic.
If the players you slotted at the top of the lineup deserve those spots, the Oilers won’t be able to afford them under a flat cap, even if Bouchard still has three years remaining on his ELC at that time.
I think it is up to 30%. 😉
Klef’s career is a question mark, Larsson’s contract ends in one season. Russell is near the end.
Nurse (25), Jones (23), Bear (23 ), Bouchard (21), Broberg (19) Samorukov (21).
I agree with you on long UFA contracts for 30 year olds which is why I mentioned 3-5 years. You need some experience back there and 33 is not bad for a dman while the agent will want more years.
It depends how many more imo. As Holland said, “more money or more term than you want” is the rule but sometimes you can’t get exactly what you want and you have to take what you can get.
We’ll see how he meshes with McDavid. I think that is the key.
The post was somewhat facetious but quoted Brian Burke.
It would be fascinating if some one assigned numerical values (say McDavid at 100) to all the players on each team, then assigning a numerical value to each roster before the season starts, adjust for man games lost to injury during the season, and seeing which coach got the most out of his roster by the time the Stanley Cup was awarded.
Michael Russo, after a conversation with Bill Daly has a deep dove on what next season would look like.
https://theathletic.com/2157280/2020/10/23/inside-nhls-plan-for-2020-21-season-its-more-challenging-than-summer-return/?source=user_shared_article