Dylan Holloway is either a complementary winger on a scoring line, an effective checking center, or the Oilers missed the mark in the first round of the 2020 draft.
It looked to me as though all of the obvious names came off the board right in front of Edmonton, leaving three names on my list (Dawson Mercer, Mavrik Bourque, Connor Zary) in the range. Oilers chose a better athlete and a faster skater.
Is he a better hockey player?
THE ATHLETIC!
I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.
- New Lowetide: Oilers extend Kris Russell, solve expansion issue
- Lowetide: Can Kyle Turris centre an outscoring No. 3 line in Edmonton?
- Lowetide: Tyson Barrie’s skills and how Oilers coach Dave Tippett will deploy him
- Jonathan Willis: Can Oilers unlock James Neal’s scoring potential at five on five?
- Lowetide: Why is Ilya Konovalov no longer starting in the KHL?
- Lowetide: Oilers Top 20 prospects, post-draft edition.
- Lowetide: Finding Connor McDavid’s optimal linemates among 2020-21 Oilers
- Jonathan Willis: A cautious free agent period boosts an Oilers team still on the upswing
- Lowetide: Oilers bring back Mike Smith for another year.
- Lowetide: Oilers sign Tyson Barrie to a team-friendly deal.
- Lowetide: Oilers sign Kyle Turris, Tyler Ennis in early hours of free agency.
- Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi signing overshadows a strong day for Oilers at draft
- Lowetide: Oilers draft Dylan Holloway on Day 1, with trades possible Wednesday
I rated Holloway No. 25 overall, saying “Big power forward. Strong skater, nice range of skills” in my “Here Comes the Sun” final ranking on June 1. Months went by, the draft did not come. Finally, we got a date for the 2020 selection. I thought about tweaking my list in the weeks before the draft, but decided against it.
Why? I believed that since the math didn’t move over the summer, it would be a reach, beyond what my list tries to do. My list is a math list, more of a “hey Mr. Scout, why do you hate Seth Jarvis?” than pointing out some non-statistical progression made by a player. My work was done. As the great Clint Eastwood said, a man’s got to know his limitations.
So, I left my list where it is and stand by it. My list says the Calgary Flames got a better player despite drafting later in the first round of the 2020 draft, and we’ll see how the story unfolds.
There are people who drill down and look for answers in the video, and one of best is Scott Wheeler at The Athletic. Wheeler went deep, and I mean deep, on Holloway as a prospect (here) and finds a player who brings a unique skill set to every game.
I didn’t use that piece in my evaluation, and did not refer to it in my recent ranking, but absolutely believe you should read it. Wheeler’s evaluation could match the opinion of Edmonton’s scouts. I guarantee you will walk away from that article with a better knowledge of Holloway the player. I will be referring to it in future when discussing Holloway.
One final note: Wheeler did the same thing last season with Raphael Lavoie, who finds myriad ways to get his shot on net (and scores often). Wheeler’s work is original. It is worth your time.
MOST LIKELY OILERS ROSTER
As much fun as it is to add one or two late pieces to this roster, it’s possible Ken Holland will run with this unit. Oscar Klefbom’s LTIR means there is $2.57 million in room and that seems reasonable based on the high degree of unknown re: The defenseman’s injury status. The most likely move remains a right-wing dealt for a left wing or a pick, meaning the club would be free to sign Dominik Kahun or other. Maybe Josh Leivo arrives at a bargain price.
I’ve mentioned this before, but the Oilers had a good middle of the 2020 draft. Tullio and Savoie (imo) were second-round talents plucked in later rounds, similar to the Jones-Bear 2015 run.
I had Holloway No. 25, Tullio No. 53, Savoie No. 56 and Berezkin No. 122. Math liked the draft based on where Edmonton picked and what was procured. The one exception is Holloway, and Wheeler’s words are a fascinating counterpoint.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, we kickstart the weekend on TSN1260. NHL GM meetings start at the same time, if there’s any news on the start of the 2020-21 NHL season we’ll have it live. Steve Lansky from Inside the Truck podcast will chat World Series, and what are we going to watch between the World Series and the World Juniors? At 11, Matthew Iwanyk will pop in and chat World Series, NFL and Covid-19 worries in regard to Edmonton hosting the WJ’s. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
Maxim B. on the U20 Russian roster for the Karjala Cup.
Lt: “leaving three names on my list (Dawson Mercer, Mavrik Bourque, Connor Zary)”… about the same for me…
With that said, the reason I was so pumped up with Mercer is his non stop work ethic and I believe we need more players like that (without going for the actual Lucic). After reading many prospect summaries on Holloway, I can say most articles suggest the same thing in his game. We’ll have to see in a few years…
I saw Tom Petty play in Toronto, probably 1994 when Wildflowers was released. He came out with a black lab, waived and said a few words to the 20K fans and sat down on his stool to begin the set. That dog sat down on the stage floor beside him, and didn’t move the whole show, which I felt was pretty cool, and wow, what a show.
Is seem a right winger for a pick – we need those and then go UFA shopping for a left wing is the best option.
I wanted to second LTs recommendation of the Wheeler articles. The Holloway and Lavoie articles were both well worth the read (and watch, Wheeler includes lots of video clips to illustrate his talking points).
Holloway is a project, a rookie, 100% as yet untested therefore we must wait and see which Dylan Holloway shows at Training Camp.
That 2X Cup winning winger currently helping Tampa comes to mind.
Oilers defence prospects are fantastic at this point.
Almost too many to mention.
No more having to live and die on the MRI of some banged up AHL player.
I’m just here for the music references.
Also I was at this particular show:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0y2PFz2B-g
Holloway is the type of player Teams chase for decades “how do you get this type of player”
He should take a big step forward this year
Have you heard the recent release of the expanded Wildflowers? Incredible. He wanted to do a triple album and the label said no, so most of the unreleased stuff is pretty great.
The Badgers do plan to play a 24 game schedule and a weekend Big 10 tournament this year. I hope they can pull it off, it sounds like coaches and players moving on will provide Holloway with a big opportunity.
God speed young man, God speed
I was not high on Holloway but I tend to like 2nd half risers. I think it was 9 points in his last 10 games playing against men.
Dylan Halloway is the perfect winger for Connor moving forward. He has the same physical attributes as Leon and is an excellent skater. I think we will find that forwards such as Halloway will negate the smaller offensive D. While small with skill has shown to be valuable Big men with excellent skating and skill are still the good standard. If Holloway goes to the net against Quinn Hughes he won’t even feel the bump as he goes over him.
Badger was my favorite comic book superhero on the 80s. I have a lot of time for the State of Wisconsin and any Oiler prospect who can call himself a “Badger”.
Hopefully Holloway exceeds expectations…
Scoring in the NHL is much, much harder than in any other hockey league, but especially compared to junior hockey. NHL players are bigger and faster (though more smaller players are making the grade every year), making finding space all the more challenging. Though skating, work ethic and tenacity (or truculence as per Burke) continue to be the foundation that successful players have; size matters, especially in the playoffs.
Holland’s three high picks with the Oilers (1st and 2nd rounders) have had three things in common; good-to-great skating, size and being perceived reach picks (Broberg, Holloway) or in Lavoie’s case passed over by multiple teams twice. Good arrows now for all three of these players so time will tell.
Wheeler’s articles on Holloway and Lavoie show that there is something there with these two. The only Broberg reference I could find from Wheeler was cautionary at best. Good reads but would like to see year-over-year updates from the same author.
Old Dutch showing his Boss tendencies by covering his bet with Two potential power forwards.
Everyone knows power forwards have a terrible attrition rate. Might be due to large bodies banging around in a Newtonian Universe.
I’m very pleased to see all the Tom Petty chatter here, he was really underrated, inasmuch as that is possible for such a popular figure. If you have the time, I highly recommend this interview Wild Flowers producer Rick Rubin just conducted with Petty’s daughter about the release of the Wild Flowers box set:
https://brokenrecordpodcast.com/all#/episode-65-tom-pettys-wildflowers-ii-with-adria-petty-2/
https://open.spotify.com/album/2s7jw1QyMFXe1fsSzla8cv
Wildflowers & All The Rest
dustrock,
I have not, thanks for the heads up, I will look to download it it today… 1994, probably the most I went to concerts in a single year… Pearl Jam, Tom Petty, The Tea Party on New Years, and the annual Tragically Hip Molson Park trip to name a few… good, but blurry times!
Bohologo,
Or, I’ll just use Spotify… thanks man!
I saw a picture of Holloway’s youth team in a sponsored uniform from Cinnamon Spoon – if you are in Bragg Creek it is a must stop to get a pastry and coffee.
I am Woogie63 and I endorse this message
I apologize in advance for the spam, but here at LT’s place I think we all love Finns and we all love good drink, so here is something to enjoy (although it’s not really something you want to be caught watching at work, given the sauna angle and more relaxed Finnish attitudes about a lack of clothes):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Q35akNanEs
– Big guy that is a plus skater
– Can make it as a center or winger and as a top 6 player or a 3rd liner
– Good athlete
– Good head on his shoulders
– College route giving the team a longer rope to sign and also the potential to go to the AHL if they want to sign early
I like the bet.
I’m wondering where the Oilers stand with their off season compared to other teams. Would love to hear people’s thoughts on how teams stack up in the Pacific – which teams improved and regressed, and where do they likely finish in the standings. And with the seeming inevitability of a Canadian division, how do these teams compare to each other.
The lineup as shown looks good, though improvement would always be welcomed (get Kahun please Mr. Holland). Looking at the team from the start of the 2019 season to today is promising.
At forward, replacing Russell, Jurco, Sheahan and Granlund with Yamamoto, JP, Turris and Ennis is a huge upgrade. Also, the elephant in the room – a McDavid that has trained not just done rehab may prove even more dynamic. In the last 50-years, no team has had different players win the Hart in consecutive years. Does that streak end next season? Yes, yes it does.
The defense question will be answered in time, but appears to be at least equal. How much did his injury reduce Klefbom’s efficiency at 5v5 during the year? Klef’s PP work was great, but not a lot of contact involved in those situations. Can Barrie cover the PP bet? I believe he does. The right-side is much better as Larsson was out from Game 2 and missed 22 games last year. The left-side is not better on paper, but how much poorer is it? I think not much.
Oilers finish first in the Canadian (Gretzky) Division – book it.
Yes. I will third that notion. I think Holloway is a good example where the current numbers are hard to gauge the player. I think it is good to consult both models (the maths and the eyes, when possible). The maths provide a quick and insightful analysis. The eye test and context of his performance at this age, and previous performance (AJHL) provides some comfort in the fact that pesky NC grabbed Jarvis out of our hands..(my hope). It is not too far out of reach to see how Holloway could be a great complementary winger next to McDrai in the not too distant future. I see this potential role on the roster more so than 3C at the moment, but there are a few years to go…
Canadian (Gretzky) Division will be exciting-hard hockey and I cannot wait.
Regular season finishing order:
Oilers – improved significantly at forward
Jets – got a 2nd line center, just need to sign Roslovic
Leafs – got older and slower but have good regular season weapons
Canucks – got worse at forward, defence and in goal but still have good young players
Flames – did not address their need for a #1C though may have gotten better in goal
Sens – got much better but will still get a great 2021 draft pick
Quebec separated? 😉
Elgin R,
Oops: forgot the Habs. Put them just below the Flames.
JimmyV1965,
I just looked up where the season halted, I can’t see any big surprises from where we left off in Pacific except in California and the desert:
1 Vegas
2 Edmonton
3 Vancouver
4 Calgary
5 Anaheim
6 San Jose
7 Arizona
8 Los Angeles
1 Oilers
2 Toronto
3 Vancouver
4 Montreal
5 Calgary
6 Winnipeg
7 Ottawa
Calgary and Winnipeg are tough, I don’t believe either team is done adding, but as it stands now.
JimmyV1965,
In fact, if Vancouver’s goalies crap the bed it could go anywhere in the 3 to 6 spot. I think the Flames have added and lost enough to secure 4th or 5th which I assume is a Canadian Division playoff team?
1 Oilers
2 Toronto
3 Winnipeg
4 Calgary
5 Montreal
6 Vancouver
7 Ottawa
Skelefteea with two confirmed cases.
Don’t anticipate we’ll see Broberg in game action for a bit….
————
Sammy back in the lineup for Moscow today.
Vasby got a goal in the first period and, no surprise, it was scored by Lavoie. Tied at 1 after the first period.
Canadian division is not a positive for Edm
LAK, SJS, and ANA will be basement teams next season
I remember seeing that piece on Holloway from Wheeler in the spring but really just skimmed it at the time and didn’t watch the videos.
LT was right, my “understanding of the player” is much higher now than it was a half an hour ago (at least I think).
I totally get why some/many think high end 3C type player is his likely landing place (while acknowledging some upside).
That could very well be the case but, at the same time, to be that physically competent (if not dominant) as a teenager in college is very impressive. The kid knows how to use that size, speed and strength and he’s just going to get bigger and stronger – with the head he seems to have on him, that skill-set COULD lead to a material top 6 role.
His ability to win battles and willingness to battle in all zones is exactly what McDavid needs on his wing. Get the puck and be the defensive presence – do that with speed and skill – momma……
We are a long ways from there but I see legit upside.
Beauty low shot by Lavoie for his first period goal.
McLeod has a 1st period goal for Zug as they are up 2-0 early.
Bouchard with the primary assist on a 2nd period goal tying the game at 2.
Good day in Europe so far…..
1. Montreal.
Added two top six forwards, a second pairing D and most importantly, a credible back up goaltender.
2. Toronto.
Added veteran leadership, the best D partner Morgan Reilly has ever had and Nick Robertson is about to exploded.
3. Calgary.
Flames have been looking for solid goaltending since Kiprusoff left and landed Markstrom.
The emergence and further development of Mangiapane and Dube provide scoring up and down the lineup.
4. Edmonton.
Some nice forward additions but even weaker at D. Expect significant regression of special teams and in the production of Yamamoto who had a 25% shooting percentage last season.
And, of course, they are employing the worst back up goaltender in the league.
5. Vancouver.
The addition of a legit top pairing puck moving D cannot be understated but is balanced by the apparent plan to rely on an inexperienced third pairing.
If Holtby rebounds (a decent bet with Ian Clark) they could move up.
6. Winnipeg
They got the second line centre they needed but are still shy on D. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a trade before the season begins. If that happens, they could well move up because their forward group and goaltending are among the best in the league.
7. Ottawa
This team could be sneaky good.
The addition of Dadanov is huge and they also have some high end prospects ready to step in.
Also worth noting, they still have $17 million in free cap space that they can use to scoop up some of the remaining UFAs on extreme value deals if Melnyk decides to spend the money
I think the Habs are a huge wildcard this year. I think their defence is better, but they are paying Chairot and Edmundson $3.5 mill to play too high in the lineup. And they’re relying on two 21 year old centres to play a huge role on the team. Oiler fans know how this story ends. And while I don’t like the Domi trade, they have a really strong group of wingers. Will be fascinating to see how they do this year.
It doesn’t seem like many people are concerned with having one of Jones or Russell playing top 4 minutes if Klefbom is out all season like it seems.
Is this because of faith in Jones taking a huge step forward like Bear did?
I’m seeing the defence as much worse from last year without Klefbom, even with Barrie.
I’d agree with you to a point.
I think the defense is slightly worse. Basically we are losing Klefbom and gaining Barrie. I think Klefbom is a better overall player.
Other than that, the defense remains the same, and there is plenty of room for in house improvement through the year with the young NHL dmen and prospects pushing up.
The first thing I thought when I heard the draft day descriptives was Bob Gainey with maybe a little more offensive potential. Does that sound anywhere in the ball park from your viewing?
Since comparing Canadian division line ups seems to be a thing today anybody want to offer an opinion on how that would shake out for the coaching staffs?
I think there is a tendency to underestimate their influence when ranking the guys on the ice.
Thanks.
Just found where Allen got the name “lowetide” from
https://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=video&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwidvZKCr8vsAhWyHjQIHZ6ODPcQtwIwAnoECAMQAg&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3D6MHg1-mpcUY&usg=AOvVaw1LBz63G4UE9TDSRcFRv_PS
Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) Tweeted:
The NBA is targeting Dec. 22 for the start of the 2020-21 season and a 72-game campaign that finishes before the ‘21 Olympics, sources tell @TheAthleticNBA @Stadium.
The best coach is the one who gets off the bus with the best players…unless he’s Barry Trotz.
To play devil’s advocate:
They also traded away a top 6 forward. Toffoli may or may not be a fit, and I’m not sure Edmundson is a top 4 D. Allen was probably a good add, but whether or not it is a good idea to have $15m for an aging Price and an Allen who has been very inconsistent will only show in season.
While Brodie was a very positive addition, Thornton and Spezza will battle for 4th line playing time, and they lost Kapanen and Johnsson. Vesey is a nice value signing, but Robertson has played 4 games… I’m not sure that meets the criteria for “about to exploded”. This team has suspect D and Andersen will be relied upon to just get them into the playoffs. This team did not improve.
Markstrom is a very slight upgrade on Talbot statistically, Lucic still exists, and their star players, save for Tkachuk, were awful last season. And their D got worse.
Goaltending will be a problem, defense will be a problem. Mike Commodore said it best, “If your team is relying on Oscar Klefbom to be the guy playing 25 minutes a night, you’re fucked”. Oilers desperately need Caleb Jones to have an Ethan Bear type season, and for Broberg to turn out better than Klefbom. Forward group is exponentially better this season.
You also lost Tanev so your second pairing is a mess. Weak D + Holtby is a recipe for disaster that even Brogan can’t save the Canucks.
Jets need Hellebuyck to win another Vezina to get into the playoffs. If they trade Laine for a D it will make them even worse.
Sens are going to be bad again, but it would be an exciting time for fans to watch their team rebuild. Despite their quantity of draft picks, I don’t think they got a ton of quality. Regardless, they will be a good team in a few years.
Check out Miley Cyrus’s version of Wildflowers…she has been doing some excellent old school covers lately. I had no idea just how good her voice is….amazing! She was born a generation too late.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qs3ZKj47zEw
Pierre LeBrun (@PierreVLeBrun) Tweeted:
GMs didn’t get any hard answers from the league on the call today regarding the 20-21 season. So many different factors still at play. And the joint committee with NHLPA hasn’t met yet.
What seems to be the general consensus on what Montreal has done and thoughts on Bergevin as a GM. The Anderson contract seems insane though I am not too familiar with the player.. Edmundson seems like an overpay too. In general the media seems positive but I don’t see it, just wondered what posters think.
After their bit of playoff success, both Julien and Bergevin mentioned getting bigger for playoff hockey. (See Josh Anderson) . I know Chiasson is mentioned a lot as Montreal is home but I do hope the oilers keep him, I wonder if Montreal would be interested in Kassian at all? He is big and can skate though I believe they moved him out while he was battling addiction issues so there may be some negative history there.
Lowetide has mentioned Tomas Tatar several times and we know Ken likes to play it again Sam. I think he’s on an expiring contract, you wonder if they might pursue him before the trade deadline though I guess a fairly big ticket or combination would head the other way.
Elliotte Friedman (@FriedgeHNIC) Tweeted:
There was an in-depth conversation about draft lottery. There are teams that would like to see a change in the format. NHL asked for specific proposals, and we will see where that goes…(2/x)