Is That All There Is?

by Lowetide

The Oilers tacked an extra year on Kris Russell’s contract yesterday, some people went a half bubble off plumb but most saw the big picture. For the record, no one complained about Kris Russell per se, it was Kris Russell’s no movement, four-year deal paying $4 million a year that caused the crazy.

Those $4 million dollars were the only thing left between Peter Chiarellia and a paralyzed roster, and he signed the deal anyway. That’s not on Russell, but it is a conversation piece when the contract is being discussed.

THE ATHLETIC!

I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.

LAND MINES

This offseason has been a series of rumours, followed by an action, and then more rumours. The period leading up to Jacob Markstrom’s signing in Calgary saw the Oilers rumour mill moving like a weather vane in a hurricane.

At that point, I was preparing to write an article called “Markstorm in, Koskinen out?” but it never came to pass. The $6 million that would have gone to Markstrom landed with Tyson Barrie, Kyle Turris and Tyler Ennis.

I believe this is a far better route, due to my new policy on free agent contracts: If the deal looks nothing like the Lucic deal Chiarelli signed, then two thumb’s up!

My question is “will Holland do anything else?” and by that I mean add a player with a chance to make a difference. So that would be Anthony Duclair, Dominik Kahun, Slater Koekkoek or Jacques Plante. Is there a move like that out there?

There’s still $2 million plus left over after signing Kahun and moving Oscar Klefbom to LTIR. That means another move could be made if a player wanted to sign in Edmonton during training camp or preseason. There are going to be some astounding names coming in on PTO’s heading into the 2020-21 campaign.

PTO’S

I wonder if there’s a goalie the club could invite. I don’t know about Craig Anderson, Jimmy Howard or Ryan Miller (all remain on TSN’s free-agent board) but maybe Zane McIntyre is worth a look. I’m on record as believing Edmonton will have three or more goalies playing during 2020-21, might as well look at everyone.

I think the playoff showed no one really knows who has been working out like a bugger and who is drinking beer, smoking cigarettes and watching Captain Kangaroo. It’s a crapshoot.

I also think there’s a chance some of these late 30’s goalies are going to contemplate retirement. One wonders if a mid-season call to one of them will be among Holland’s options in case of injury/inconsistent play.

Hell, invite a bunch of guys on a PTO, something similar to Buck Rodgers and he did with the Expos pitching staff spring 1987 when Pascual Perez, Dennis Martinez, Bob McClure, Joaquin Andujar, Lary Sorensen and others were invited to see if they could make it all the way back to the big leagues. Martinez became the ace of the staff, Pascual Perez was brilliant down the stretch and McClure found a home in the bullpen. The rejects went 27-10 and the Expos won 91 games. PTO’s could be a big damned deal.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A packed show this morning, we begin at 10, TSN1260. Aaron Bronsteter from TSN will join us at 10:20 to discuss Khabib-Gaethje at UFC 254. Daniel Gallen from Penn Live pops in at 10:40 to talk about NFL Thursday Night Football. At 11, Frank Seravalli from TSN has the latest on free agency and NHL’s upcoming meetings that will decide the start of the 2020-21 season. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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freeconnor

Loved Pascual Perez’s strikeout celebrations, even if he was an accused sodomite in the end (whoops!).

https://www.nytimes.com/1995/09/25/sports/sports-people-baseball-perez-jailed-after-arrest-on-rape-charge.html

Youppi, bad boy!

PennersPancakes

flyfish1168: It makes no sense to pay 5.0 million when you can wait and then pay less. CAP is the most important on a flat CAPyear.

You are ignoring the original point and context of the comment. In none of my posts am I advocating for a team taking on Johnson at 5 million per year. Cap is a commodity. We are agreeing without you realizing it.

It was in respects to posters suggesting moving Kris Russell at his 4 mill cap hit should be easy. Johnson is a much better player (also with more years on contract which is a negative) who was unable to be given away. Nate Schmidt BECAUSE OF HIS 6X6 was traded for a 3rd round pick because of the cap and a flat cap. And hes a first pairing D.

PennersPancakes

who: No one wants to pay him 5.5 million for another 4 years.
Not that hard to understand.

Dont try to tell me I dont understand the point I am literally trying to make.

Johnson is a player that could play on any team, he was offered to the league for zero acquisition cost, and no one took Tampa up on that.

He and Schmidt have more years to their contracts than Russell so its not a perfect comparison but they have both been solid players on Stanley cup finals teams and they were tough to move because of their cap hit.

The context of the comments before posters went hur durr theres no such thing as free lunch was that Schmidt (1st d pairing) and Johnson (weak 2c/strong3c?) were moved for a 3rd round pick and not moved at all.

These are much better players than Kris Russell who some posters are saying should be super easy to move. Yes they have more years on their contracts before someone feels the need to point that out despite me mentioning it multiple times. Its not a perfect comparison but helps show the market.

Its not that hard to understand.

OriginalPouzar

Broberg and a few other higher end Swedish players not participating in their World Junior Camp.

Sounds like they’ll be on the team but coaches/management want to look at some others in case they aren’t available due to NHL camps, etc.

Warning: Google Translate:

BACK STARS ARE PUT OUTSIDE

The squad lacks some well-known players, especially on the back side where Montén chose to put the star trio Victor Söderström , Philip Broberg and Tobias Björnfot out of the team.

– The three had of course contributed a lot in a squad like this. They are very hot candidates if the NHL does not start, but that is precisely why I did not choose to take them in this squad. I do not know what is happening over there, Montén explains and continues:

– I know that it is said that both Björnfot and Broberg are on loan all season and Söderström will be in AIK until further notice, but I do not know… There is a fear in me that the NHL will start its camps around the time when JVM will be played and then I can not be a hundred that these players can be free.

– Then I feel that it is more important to look at eight other slopes, so that we are ready no matter how the squad is formed later on.

https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=sv&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fhockeysverige.se%2F2020%2F10%2F23%2Fdarfor-stalls-backstjarnorna-utanfor

Wilde

Georgexs: You get weird stuff like Nurse/Bear were matched hard against elites and had great results, hell yeah, but, oh wait, they were down overall for the year, which means they were losing to the hoi polloi. Well, that’s a head scratcher. Are they awesome or aren’t they? How is this helping?

I know you weren’t talking to me, but-

This is just a thing that could have happened. Same result set, and we find out that the minutes they played that ended up in the “vs Elite” bin were with either the best player in the league or another of its top top forward lines, and in the minutes vs ‘the hoi polloi’ they weren’t. No essential ‘awesome’ quality need be assigned and everything still checks out.

rickithebear

It is funny.
My 2 oldest have shown a gun safety and storage progression form Nerf then pellet gun safe storage and operation.
To a time to get having my PAL Course passing documented so I can take them from Rimfire to small Cal. Centerfire, to large caliber centerfite usage.

My rifle selections are being based on:
Ammo availability.
Performance per dollar vs old tech/new tech affect.

It is clear that Smooth bore technology To launch projectiles to space taught to me by Gerald Bull is still leading public tech.
Their is a YouTubeR called USOG that just presented a video identifying smooth bore pricipals discovered using smooth bore barrels projectile parth tracking using sheets of paper.
To establish the understanding of 50+% Increases in energy and velocity thru Slow burn propellant high pressures Increases created From case sealment with projectiles rather than barrel path resistance.
What he discovered is the need for induced gyro rotation Affect.
Hevwas able get velocities to go from 300 ft/sec to 5000/6000 feet per second.

It confirmed my belief that Purchase if the older Mauser based caliber rifkes Have the same 3 to 400 yd flat duistances of the latest abnd greatest cartridge.

USOG realized common man does not have the ability to create Micro gyros internal to Bullets but nano tech may be able to.

What is interesting is Rail guns that are being built without gyros internal to the projectile.
The projectile and rail failures Are a huge indicator.
Area 25 was trying to figure out Nuckear power Rockets with magnetic based guidance of Nuckear energy release.
They understood the material Science was not their.

They must do what Elon musk did fispace X.
Building a program off the 100% Success technology of 50’s and 60’s
Not doing anything new.
Just fine tuning.
Launch is the same.
Hover return tech concept is the same.
Reusing equipment was allways desired and understood.
Their was no material science available to do the job.

Looking at bio receptors in early 80’s
I understood material based equipment technology was not their.
The Prof I had Coffee with was in the final stages of thin Column GC development.
Identifying organic compound in minutes rather 30 min to 2 hrs.
Bio receptor work?

OriginalPouzar

Lennstrom scored a late 3rd period goal today – an insurance marker that ended up the winner.

I was going to post that he’s one disappointing over in Europe – his first point in 6 games and he only played just over 12 minutes.

flyfish1168

OriginalPouzar: I don’t think any Lightning RFA filed for arb so no second buyout window for the Lightning.

With that said, the Canucks will have a short second buy out window opening in a few days now that they settled with Virtanen – I don’t think they’ll use it but we’ll see.

Thanks, OP for clearing this up.

innercitysmytty

Redbird62: You have lobbed a lot of criticism here about how you think Holland has gone about it all wrong, but I haven’t seen your tangible solutions that Holland should employ a) given that he has virtually no cap space, ($732,000) with a 22 man roster b) still needs to sign Bear (and Lagesson but if he is on the roster someone else will come off (like Klefbom on LTIR),c) may not be sure exactly how the LTIR will play out for Klefbom. Who would you have tried to sign instead of Haas and Nygard for less than $1 million and then let them go to free agency. (I am already on the record saying I probably wouldn’t have signed Patrick Russell)?And how do you think signing any of those 3 has any impact on Holland trying to get any bigger fish (besides Barrie and Turris) since he still has 8 contracts he can add, and those two can already go to the minors assuming they clear waivers (like Russell is already assumed to do). Holland offered Kahun and was turned down. Unless he can trade someone like Chiasson (which he may still do) or Russell which he also still can do, he can still only looking at players in that $1 million range right now.

A buyout of Russell provides virtually no savings ($3 million cap hit, plus you have to replace him on the roster).It has been discussed on here that Holland had offers on Russell, but again, none of has any idea what was offered, but clearly not enough that Holland would take it. Maybe if we find out he passed on what most would consider a no-brainer deal that would have freed up an extra $2 million without having to give away any of the key prospects then fine he will be subject to criticism then (especially if Russell plays most of the season and not very well – which would also be a sad indictment of the Oilers other D prospects).

Signing players and making trades is hard work because there is someone on the other side of that transaction making their own decisions in their own best interest (unless you can trade with Chiarelli who didn’t know his own best interest).Overall in his two off seasons and one season, Holland has had more hits than misses and the team outperformed everyone’s expectations up till the play in and that’s not bad considering the cap and roster situation he walked into.

The Oilers currently have $732k in available cap space. One thing I still see people missing on here is that this is for a current roster of 22 players. When Bear and Lagesson are signed, that would make a roster of 24. The team is allowed to carry 20 players to start the season and be compliant, but I think it would be reasonable to assume a roster of 21. Should they choose to run 21, they actually have $732k plus the available space freed up by demoting 3 players after Bear and Lagesson are signed to reach the appropriate roster size. Looking at who may be sent down, it will likely total in the $2.7 million range for the 3 players. Taking that into account the Oilers effectively have $3.4 million total to sign Bear and Lagesson or any other combination of two players and still remain under the cap to start the season. The LTIR is still not touched in this scenario. Any further signing beyond these two results in an additional player of approximately $900k-$1 million going down, etc. They could sign Bear to a bridge for $1.75-2 million, sign Lagesson for $900k, demote another F and sign Kahun for $1.5 million. This scenario doesn’t leave Holland his walking around money but is doable.

innercitysmytty

The Oilers currently have $732k in available cap space. One thing I still see people missing on here is that this is for a current roster of 22 players. When Bear and Lagesson are signed, that would make a roster of 24. The team is allowed to carry 20 players to start the season and be compliant, but I think it would be reasonable to assume a roster of 21. Should they choose to run 21, they actually have $732k plus the available space freed up by demoting 3 players after Bear and Lagesson are signed to reach the appropriate roster size. Looking at who may be sent down, it will likely total in the $2.7 million range for the 3 players. Taking that into account the Oilers effectively have $3.4 million total to sign Bear and Lagesson or any other combination of two players and still remain under the cap to start the season. The LTIR is still not touched in this scenario. Any further signing beyond these two results in an additional player of approximately $900k-$1 million going down, etc. They could sign Bear to a bridge for $1.75-2 million, sign Lagesson for $900k, demote another F and sign Kahun for $1.5 million. This scenario doesn’t leave Holland his walking around money but is doable.

digger50

Redbird&#n54;2: You have lobbed a lot of criticism here about how you think Holland has gone about it all wrong, but I haven’t seen your tangible solutions that Holland should employ a) given that he has virtually no cap space, ($732,000) with a 22 man roster b) still needs to sign Bear (and Lagesson but if he is on the roster someone else will come off (like Klefbom on LTIR),c) may not be sure exactly how the LTIR will play out for Klefbom. Who would you have tried to sign instead of Haas and Nygard for less than $1 million and then let them go to free agency. (I am already on the record saying I probably wouldn’t have signed Patrick Russell)?And how do you think signing any of those 3 has any impact on Holland trying to get any bigger fish (besides Barrie and Turris) since he still has 8 contracts he can add, and those two can already go to the minors assuming they clear waivers (like Russell is already assumed to do). Holland offered Kahun and was turned down. Unless he can trade someone like Chiasson (which he may still do) or Russell which he also still can do, he can still only looking at players in that $1 million range right now.

A buyout of Russell provides virtually no savings ($3 million cap hit, plus you have to replace him on the roster).It has been discussed on here that Holland had offers on Russell, but again, none of has any idea what was offered, but clearly not enough that Holland would take it. Maybe if we find out he passed on what most would consider a no-brainer deal that would have freed up an extra $2 million without having to give away any of the key prospects then fine he will be subject to criticism then (especially if Russell plays most of the season and not very well – which would also be a sad indictment of the Oilers other D prospects).

Signing players and making trades is hard work because there is someone on the other side of that transaction making their own decisions in their own best interest (unless you can trade with Chiarelli who didn’t know his own best interest).Overall in his two off seasons and one season, Holland has had more hits than misses and the team outperformed everyone’s expectations up till the play in and that’s not bad considering the cap and roster situation he walked into.

And I am on record stating that I like the Oilers adds to date.

Please see Wilde’s posts and I’m sure he will bring us more clarity in future posts. It’s late and I’m signing off. Have a good evening.

Dac189

Redbird62:
Signing players and making trades is hard work because there is someone on the other side of that transaction making their own decisions in their own best interest (unless you can trade with Chiarelli who didn’t know his own best interest).Overall in his two off seasons and one season, Holland has had more hits than misses and the team outperformed everyone’s expectations up till the play in and that’s not bad considering the cap and roster situation he walked into.

Yep.
Most here weren’t predicting the Oilers to make the playoffs this year and yet they did.
Holland made improvements to the bottom 6 while being extremely cap constrained last offseason. Similarly he had very little cap this offseason and yet brought in a good haul with Barrie, Turris and Puljujarvi for 6 Mill.
It’d be nice if he could bring in 3 more 3rd line players for 1 million each but that’s hard to do since every team is looking for those contracts.

Hollands only BAD move up to this point is Athanasiou but we can also blame covid for that. Plus, most of the people here reacted positively to that signing.

rickithebear

GeorgeXS:
I tried posting critical assumptions that makes all current hockeynanalytuvs wrong.
But server issue.

//Grew up ( taught by) with analytic people who hated assumptions.
They knew they had to look at 100% of risk potential.
My father and others were the bug checkers and fixers of Aerospace industry.
Tony Heller was a modern fixer for intel.
One of the worlds leading data analyzers and crap Science detectors.
He is currently microfilm based ( cannot edit film based image) newspaper Data changes in modern Science models.
He catches Scientific scum who change data to get the huge amount of grants and lobbyist ( business money.

Current academia has become portioned micro analytics with low resolution taught by many departments.

Their are 3 critical poor assumptions that make most/all portions of current Hockey analytics false ( incorrect) data.

A. Only NHLE Is useful for draft math to identify prospect potential during pre and post prosoect analysis.
I have from day one believed In a partnership Of age based production math partnered with Scouting of player mechanics.
It does not matter weather a player is 16 or 20 when they get 1.00 Ppg in CHL. They will both get the same point production at 22 in the NHL.
Desjardins Created draft, draft +1 and draft +2 performance ranges based on 22 yr old NHL performance.

I was able to visit 22 yr HHL player production and look at 16 to 20: yr outcomes.
The results lined up ( partnered with ) Desjardins 17, 18, $ 19 yr ranges.
Player in draft age based performance translations of Desjardins CHL Are critical.
Draft -1 (16): 75 to 100% of CHL PPG rates. Range of .25 + .75
Draft (17): 50 to 75% of CHL PPG rates.Range of .25 + .50
Draft +1 (18): 40 to 50% range of .10 + .40
Draft +2 (19): (35 to 40%) range of .05 + .35
Draft +2 (20): (32 to 35%j) range of .03 + .32
It matters weather a player is 1day past sept 15 (1/365) x range or 365 days (365/365) x range in a SOE ific yr.

1.00 Ppg CHL player sept 16 birth
draft -1 is (1/365) x .25 + .75 = .751 x 1.00 = .751 x 82gm = 61.5 age xP
Draft +1 is (1/365) x .10 + .40 = .400 x 1.00 = .400 x 8wgm = 32.8 age xP
Draft +3 is (1/365) x .03 + .32= .32 x 82gm = 26,2 age xP

Another classic assumption mistake:
B. all shots have the same chance of going in and are of equal data value weather it hits the wall that is a goalie or open space.
I Allways say as a Coach:
– Start a scrimage
– cover one net with plywood
– leave The other completely open.
– then tell the kids both teams have the same chance of scoring a goal.
– Do that in front of the kids Parents.
Oh The Shit Storm.
Exclusion of all closed shots is critical to proper shot mapping ( goal density Science.)

C. Corsi F and A is a great measure of all players cause of the equal chance everyone has at generating like data.
Yep they believe that:
-Dmen/fwds with on the fly change of 75% of the time without pocession and 75% in of DZ FO
Should have the same xCA and xCF as
Dmen/fwds withn on the fly change of 75% with pocession and 75% in OZ FO.
No rational Scientific human would believe this!

Just listed why almost 100% of current hockey analytics is completely false!

defmn

I am surprised that the criticisms of Holland’s off season moves have not revisited his first choices of re-signing Benning, AA and going big on Markstrom.

Personally I prefer the Turris, Ennis, Barrie & Smith alternative that he ended up with even taking the risk that Smith represents into account.

But let’s not forget that his first choices were AA, Benning & Markstrom.

To me that is more concerning than the Russell extension or Nygard or Haas’s role on the team.

OriginalPouzar

rickithebear:
My now 26 yr look at final 4 teams is now the only Championship PROOF (thanks Vegas) in NA pro sports.

Someone does not lack any arrog, ummmm, confidence.

I’m curious, out of all active players in the NHL in 2019/20, what 18 skaters would be the optimal lineup?

Redbird62

Redbird62,

And it was also discussed that Holland also talked with Taylor Hall, but he had no chance to get anywhere close to what Buffalo got him for. His flexibility to go after forwards like Hall (or even a guy like Hoffman or Duclair, coming down the ladder) became much more limited when he found out that Klefbom was likely to be out for most of 2020/21 and he ending up using a big chunk of his available funds to get Barrie (after falling short on Markstrom).

Material Elvis

Yeti: Seriously, grow the hell up. No-one else needs to read you continuously baiting a guy just so you can dick fence on the internet.

Last time I checked we are still allowed free speech. I’m not forcing you to read my comments so go police another corner of the internet.

Redbird62

digger50: Way to go Holland.Same old.

You have lobbed a lot of criticism here about how you think Holland has gone about it all wrong, but I haven’t seen your tangible solutions that Holland should employ a) given that he has virtually no cap space, ($732,000) with a 22 man roster b) still needs to sign Bear (and Lagesson but if he is on the roster someone else will come off (like Klefbom on LTIR), c) may not be sure exactly how the LTIR will play out for Klefbom. Who would you have tried to sign instead of Haas and Nygard for less than $1 million and then let them go to free agency. (I am already on the record saying I probably wouldn’t have signed Patrick Russell)? And how do you think signing any of those 3 has any impact on Holland trying to get any bigger fish (besides Barrie and Turris) since he still has 8 contracts he can add, and those two can already go to the minors assuming they clear waivers (like Russell is already assumed to do). Holland offered Kahun and was turned down. Unless he can trade someone like Chiasson (which he may still do) or Russell which he also still can do, he can still only looking at players in that $1 million range right now.

A buyout of Russell provides virtually no savings ($3 million cap hit, plus you have to replace him on the roster). It has been discussed on here that Holland had offers on Russell, but again, none of has any idea what was offered, but clearly not enough that Holland would take it. Maybe if we find out he passed on what most would consider a no-brainer deal that would have freed up an extra $2 million without having to give away any of the key prospects then fine he will be subject to criticism then (especially if Russell plays most of the season and not very well – which would also be a sad indictment of the Oilers other D prospects).

Signing players and making trades is hard work because there is someone on the other side of that transaction making their own decisions in their own best interest (unless you can trade with Chiarelli who didn’t know his own best interest). Overall in his two off seasons and one season, Holland has had more hits than misses and the team outperformed everyone’s expectations up till the play in and that’s not bad considering the cap and roster situation he walked into.

Material Elvis

Sierra: If you looked it up you would know it’s a federal program as no province can overrule a Federal mandatory quarantine period for inbound travellers. The Feds control our borders, not the provinces.

It’s a pilot program run by the province. Federal approval of course. You think that makes it safe?

flyfish1168

PennersPancakes: Its basic knowledge that when you acquire a player through free agency, waivers, trade, any means that you take on his contract. Get this gotcha stuff about its not free he is still owed money out of here. You’re walking into the point and hitting your head on it without realizing it.

The context of that post was to say teams could have acquired Tyler Johnson for nothing but all 30 other teams said no BECAUSE of his contract to show how difficult it would be to get rid of Russell who is a lesser player BECAUSE of Russels own contract.

It makes no sense to pay 5.0 million when you can wait and then pay less. CAP is the most important on a flat CAP year.

OriginalPouzar

digger50: Sigh

I’m not sure why the sigh is coming from this end.

Yes, the “roster is full” but I think we can all be sure that, if an opportunity to improve on the current bottom 5-6 players can be done with nominal cap implications, Holland will make the move – he has shown no issue with assigning players on one-way contracts to the AHL if it improves the roster.

OriginalPouzar

digger50: Add depth by signing better players and bumping down. Holland is working backwards.

Signing Puljujarvi and Turris have knocked Haas and Nygard out of the opening night roster to start camp and P. Russell off the team.

OriginalPouzar

digger50: You hit the nail on the head. Same old, same oldleads to worst in the league bottom six and posters justifying it.

I also like the moves to date . I was advocate of putting together a third line.

Keep going Holland, you get 5M a year to find solutions.

Turris and Puljujarvi aren’t the same old though

OriginalPouzar

Georgexs:
Here’s a comparison of how our 16-17 defensemen did in the first 3 years of Russell’s 4-year contract:

Player, GP, TOI/GP, 5v5 GF-GA

Nurse, 235, 23:10, 196-200
Larsson, 194, 21:16, 122-162
Klefbom, 189, 24:03, 118-156
Russell, 205, 18:56, 116-127
Sekera, 60, 16:24, 24-42
Benning, 186, 15:28, 116-97

Prior to Tippett, Russell played a top 4 role for the Oilers, playing 19:43 a night. His 5v5 results were -10, putting him behind Nurse and (the enigmatic) Benning and ahead of Klef, Larsson, and Sekera.

Under Tippett, he’s dropped to the bottom pair. Tippett made a bet on Bear in the top 4 and he favored giving the top 4 big minutes and limiting TOI for the bottom pair.I’m not sure that bet paid off at 5v5. Russell was -1 at 5v5 GF-GA, behind Jones (+2) and (the enigmatic) Benning (+7), the other bottom pairing guys. The top 4 is where the team got beat at 5v5 in 19-20.

If Russell hurts the team as much as some believe, you’d see it in the GF-GA numbers.

The Oilers have a 5v5 GF% of 46.8 from 17-18 to 19-20. Russell’s 5v5 GF% is 47.7.

As far as %TOI vs. elites in those three season, his rank among Oilers d-men was:

– 4th
– 5th (4th if you exclude Jones and his 17 games)
-6th

rickithebear

Chiarelli left Holland.
Larson #2 (14/15 -q15/16) open xSave% dman who can do it against (1st comp
Sekera current Ssn #1 open X Save% dman (2nd comp)
Russell current #6 open xSave% dman (2nd comp) only valid option fir a MacT irbOC roster
Benning current #11 open xSave% dman (2nd/ 3rd comp), MacT/Bucky UFA signing
Talbot a clear top 10 open xsave% goalie in NY, EDM, CGY MacT arranged signing.
4 top 60 d and top 10 Goalue.

Sadly Nurse could be a. Elite open xSAve% dman if he would stay in a 2D -1G structure.
Asshole!

Holland has sent away.
Talbot, Sekera, Benning.
We are not a final 4 team like 16/17.
We’re Edm became on of the top 5 championship roster structure teams to be kept from Final 4 due to Refs poor decisions.
Edm 2 non Goalie interference calls.
VGK 4 goals on a phantom major.

digger50

Dac189:
digger50,

Edmonton bottom 6 improved from 1.27 to 1.46 goals per 60 in the two previous seasons – According to the data wilde posted above.
Still awful but some improvement year over year and I’m *guessing* they got better on defense and special teams as well.
Chiarelli really didn’t leave Holland a lot to work with in bottom 6.

Way to go Holland. Same old.

geowal

Cassandra: The corner in which Russell is on your team instead of someone else.

Chiarelli painted that corner. He IS on the team, and has the leverage on his current contract, so it will be difficult to remove him from the team. How best to utilize him being on the team? Eat minutes vacated by Klefbom, and provide expansion optionality.

Sierra

Material Elvis: I’ve looked it up.You sound angry — time for a vacation?

If you looked it up you would know it’s a federal program as no province can overrule a Federal mandatory quarantine period for inbound travellers. The Feds control our borders, not the provinces.

rickithebear

My now 26 yr look at final 4 teams is now the only Championship PROOF (thanks Vegas) in NA pro sports.
The knowledge that a Final 4 team must only give up 4 (1.00 GAA) to 8 goals (2.00gaa) in the 4 wins in The last 3 playoffs Series is critical.

Final 4 is about having superior baseline (mistake free) system and roster structure.
Def is superior In final 4 Than reg ssn.
So OFF production is inferior in the final 4 than reg. Season.

By the first 2 round over 90% of the teams dependent on 3-1-1-1 play to achieve Playoff appearance.
Final 4 is a product of strong 3-2-1 def.
This yr and past results that being one of the worst reg ssn off teams is not an issue.
LAK win a cup as the #28 reg ssn goal team.
DAL won a Conf pennat being the #29 reg ssn goal team.
The data and results are clear.
As I stated On HFboards, before expansion list creation, the potential Goalue and Dmenavailable made them a GA cup finalist.

GA is championship play.
The entire hockey analytics Community sees xG (off) as the winning hockey!
Huge Fail!

Emanualle Perry covered his ears ( Metaphor) and said stop (actually did post that) when I pointed out the compound error affects from the multitude of mistakes that carried thru all his analysis
You do not win Championships with worse than regular season average GF.
You win it with better than regular season average GA.

I told Perry that Open shot xSave% Was the driver of championship play.

A. Strong Open SH xSave% system coaches directing:
B. 4+ Top 60 dmens open xSave% baseline they establish to their side And
C. goalies top 10 +ve Open Save% Rekative to each dmans sides xSave%
are what drives Championship (3-2-1 GAA) play.
It exists on EmmanuellevOerrysvTwitterb HFboards Numbers, and Oilers Forum for all to see

LT: Taught me anything other than winning The 3 championships ( Pennats, Cup) is a loser mentality.
But not valuing the Conf championships is brutal as well.

In less than 16;months Holland has:
A. Bought out the #1 baseline open xSave% Dman Sekera, June 30, 2019
B. Does not Qualify the #11 baseline open xSave% dman Benning, Oct 6 2020
At this point I am thinking it was Jim Nill that drove Detroits cups (DAL Conf champ) and Yzerman teachings.
C. Then signs the #6 open xSave% dman To a team Cap friendly extra yr.
It is either a fluke or ruins the not knowing how to build the 100% important Ha.
3-2-1 def sys Coach,
4 + Top 60 Dmen, 1 top 10 G.
Smith has been a #2 + ve Save% goalie.

digger50

who: Any player whose salary is fully burieable in the minors does not prevent Holland from signing someone else.
The only limiting factor is open spots on the 50 man roster.

Sigh

Dac189

digger50,

Edmonton bottom 6 improved from 1.27 to 1.46 goals per 60 in the two previous seasons – According to the data wilde posted above.
Still awful but some improvement year over year and I’m *guessing* they got better on defense and special teams as well.
Chiarelli really didn’t leave Holland a lot to work with in bottom 6.

digger50

OriginalPouzar: Holland speaks often about competition and depth – I don’t anticipate P. Russell on the opening night roster if its healthy. Haas was sent to the minors (briefly) last season

Add depth by signing better players and bumping down. Holland is working backwards.

digger50

Cassandra: I couldn’t agree more.This is the same-old-same-old building a roster by filling roles instead of having the ambition to make your team better.

And I say this liking most of the moves.Turris, Puljujarvi, Barrie, are all good moves.The issue is the accidental nature of it all.And since those boxes are checked the lack of ambition to do more.

Now, if he gets Granlund I will admit I was wrong.

If he signs Kahun, I will be pleasantly surprised (but not wrong yet).

You hit the nail on the head. Same old, same old leads to worst in the league bottom six and posters justifying it.

I also like the moves to date . I was advocate of putting together a third line.

Keep going Holland, you get 5M a year to find solutions.

digger50

godot10: Anybody earning less than $1 million does not impact the ability to make other signings, unless one runs short of contracts (you only have 50), as long as long as you have an owner willing to pay.

Of course I recognize this. My point goes back to compacency. He could get more players but why should he? The spot is already filled. He should continue to look for upgrades. Even with all his bottom of the roster competition, they were still second worst in the league.

Yeti

Material Elvis: I’ve looked it up.You sound angry — time for a vacation?

Seriously, grow the hell up. No-one else needs to read you continuously baiting a guy just so you can dick fence on the internet.

Wilde

Kinger_Oil.redux,

You’re welcome – the reason that I think it’s bad vibes is because of the outcomes in this area by previous Holland signings over a track record that is long in years and broad in project type. It’d be great news if Washington’s management and scouting walked into this, for example.

Material Elvis

OriginalPouzar: No, I’m “triggered” by you thinking you are holier than me and calling me entitled based off of lack of information and incorrect inferences.

The federal government has approved the program along with the provincial government.

Clearly you know nothing about it so, instead or educating you about the nuances of the program including how short the quarantine might be, what additional testing (and when) is required, etc., I will let you do your own research.

A Canadian and Alberta government approved program provides the required safety.It has nothing to do with entitlement – it has to do with our G8 First World Nation has deemed safe.

I’ve looked it up. You sound angry — time for a vacation?

OriginalPouzar

Material Elvis: I see that you are triggered and upset by being questioned about your entitlement vacation.

This is a pilot program run by the Alberta government (not federal) in order to prop up the travel/airline industry.Hopefully it is as safe as you think it is.

No, I’m “triggered” by you thinking you are holier than me and calling me entitled based off of lack of information and incorrect inferences.

The federal government has approved the program along with the provincial government.

Clearly you know nothing about it so, instead or educating you about the nuances of the program including how short the quarantine might be, what additional testing (and when) is required, etc., I will let you do your own research.

A Canadian and Alberta government approved program provides the required safety. It has nothing to do with entitlement – it has to do with our G8 First World Nation has deemed safe.

OriginalPouzar

SwedishPoster: He couldn’t sign in the SHL if he wanted a short term contract because his SHL contract ran out this spring thus unlike Broberg or Nygård who are still have existing contracts he’d have to sign for the full year, so nothing to do with quality just about Arizona wanting him to come over once the NHL season kicks off.

Thanks for this – I figured that “locals” with history in the league would be treated differently than North Americans with no history in the league (i.e. Bouchard, etc.).

OriginalPouzar

commonfan29:
PennersPancakes,

Stauffer said today that he knows for a fact that Holland turned down trade offers for Russell.

I guess it was possible after all.

(I will grant, however that it’s possible Katz is done paying higher actual dollars than cap hits for a while.)

Did Stauff mention any of the parameters? There could have been offers that required material sweeteners and/or retention for the Oilers.

OriginalPouzar

flyfish1168: 5 Million $ contract per yr isn’t free. Wait for the buyout and possibly get him for 1.5 million that is closer to free. lol

I don’t think any Lightning RFA filed for arb so no second buyout window for the Lightning.

With that said, the Canucks will have a short second buy out window opening in a few days now that they settled with Virtanen – I don’t think they’ll use it but we’ll see.

leadfarmer

Eh Team: Somehow, Quinn Hughes is ranked 11, Makar 13, and Heiskanen 14.Really? These guys are game changes somehow Kappo and Jack Hughes are rated higher (among others)

If you don’t have Heiskanen top 5 you aren’t paying attention

OriginalPouzar

digger50: Apparently it does.

Holland signs players to play them not bury them.They can be sent down but they won’t be. Guarantee the fact they are signed accepts this substandard performance of bottom six and yes it inhibits signed better players. Nobody signs players to throw away money.

Holland speaks often about competition and depth – I don’t anticipate P. Russell on the opening night roster if its healthy. Haas was sent to the minors (briefly) last season

godot10

Eh Team: Somehow, Quinn Hughes is ranked 11, Makar 13, and Heiskanen 14.Really? These guys are game changes somehow Kappo and Jack Hughes are rated higher (among others)

Anybody who has Heiskanen behined Hughes is wrong. I’d take Heiskanen over Makar. Klingberg takes away some of the offensive opportunities for Heiskanen, since Heiskanen is better defensively. Dallas doesn’t have an Erik Johnson to let Heiskanen focus on offense.

godot10

Georgexs:
Here’s a comparison of how our 16-17 defensemen did in the first 3 years of Russell’s 4-year contract:

Player, GP, TOI/GP, 5v5 GF-GA

Nurse, 235, 23:10, 196-200
Larsson, 194, 21:16, 122-162
Klefbom, 189, 24:03, 118-156
Russell, 205, 18:56, 116-127
Sekera, 60, 16:24, 24-42
Benning, 186, 15:28, 116-97

Oh Oh…the Nurse-haters eyes are apparently wrong AGAIN.

who

digger50: Here is the question then. If Holland did not make those early forward signings of Haas, P Russel, Nygard for example, would he now be signing better players from free agency?

Right now it seems to me they are prohibiting other moves.

Any player whose salary is fully burieable in the minors does not prevent Holland from signing someone else.
The only limiting factor is open spots on the 50 man roster.

godot10

leadfarmer: A lot and hes a great player.But physical player he is not.Tkachuk should be a 70 in that rating and Pettersson a 40.Lots of other great players with a physicality of 30 -40 on that list.Hughes is a 30 for example and he can play the position and take a beating.Doesnt mean I would rate him as physical
But ever since Pronman had Pettersson and Heiskanen rated 9 and 17 respectively 2 seasons ago his ratings are almost meaningless.

Being a cheap shot artist and sneaky intentionally on purpose dirty does not make Tkachuk a physical player. He really isn’t, because the above isn’t the definition of physical…it is the definitioin of human scum