There once was a time in this fair land when the railroad did not run. Then Pierre Berton wrote a short story (that’s a joke, Berton clocked 2,000 pages before lunch) about the railroad and the whole damn thing came together with some hard work and several hundred suicides (that’s not a joke or to be trifled with, Canada came at a high cost).
Many people believe the Toronto Maple Leafs are going to be the class of the Canadian Division. Are they the best bet?
THE ATHLETIC!
I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.
- New Lowetide: Which late-value or tryout players should the Oilers invite to camp?
- Lowetide: Why McDavid and Nuge together could be key to Oilers’ playoff success
- Lowetide: Projected training camp roster for the 2020-21 Oilers.
- Jonathan Willis: Will the Oilers repeat their power play magic in 2021?
- Lowetide: Why Dmitri Samorukov is an Oilers prospect with a big future
- Lowetide: Why hasn’t Ken Holland pursued college free agents for the Oilers?
- Lowetide: Increase in skill wingers adds mystery to Oilers preseason
- Lowetide: How many ‘peak seasons’ can Oilers fans expect from Connor McDavid?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ increased focus on drafting skill is key to future success
- Lowetide: A short history of Oilers’ impact prospects at the world juniors
- Lowetide: Why Dave Tippett’s training camp with Oilers will be so compelling
- Lowetide: Oilers first-round pick Dylan Holloway’s fast start has fans buzzing
- Jonathan Willis: A brief history of Oilers teams with goalie problems, and how they overcame them
- Jonathan Willis: The Oilers are better with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl apart at 5-on-5
- Lowetide: Oilers’ reasonable expectations for 2020-21: The results
- Lowetide: Oilers’ reasonable expectations for 2020-21: Goals against
- Lowetide: Oilers’ reasonable expectations for 2020-21: The Goals
- Lowetide: Oilers Top 20 prospects, post-draft edition.
WHAT’S GOING ON?
Pierre Lebrun is both a helluva writer and very connected, so his article about the Canadian division and how the hockey industry sees the division is more than credible. Also, I’m fully aware that the industry has information we don’t have access to and that’s going to impact these predictions. I just don’t see the Toronto Maple Leafs as being a strong choice to win the division, certainly not an overwhelming one.
So, let’s run some numbers. Here are the 2019-20 five on five goal differentials, showing four teams between +5 and -4, and then three teams who are trailing the pack:
- Montreal Canadiens 147-142 (+5)
- Toronto Maple Leafs: 158-157 (+1)
- Vancouver Canucks: 142-145 (-3)
- Winnipeg Jets: 138-142 (-4)
- Calgary Flames 133-146 (-13)
- Edmonton Oilers: 141-157 (-16)
- Ottawa Senators 129-155 (-26)
The Oilers flattened the competition on special teams last season and they’ll be good again. However, the club will have to do something about these five on five numbers. That brings us to goaltending. Here is the five on five save percentage for each team in 2019-20:
- Winnipeg Jets .9242
- Vancouver Canucks .9190
- Calgary Flames .9189
- Montreal Canadiens .9170
- Ottawa Senators .9166
- Edmonton Oilers .9123
- Toronto Maple Leafs .9115
This is an area that the Oilers could have (and tried to) improve but did not, and I do believe we’ll see a transaction during the season should the position become an issue. I do find it funny that Frederik Andersen had a save percentage of .909 and Mikko Koskinen delivered at .917, but the Oilers are the ones most often mentioned as having holes. Finally, let’s run the goalie totals using five on five save percentage:
- Jake Allen (STL now MTL) .934
- Connor Hellebuyck (WPG) .929
- Jacob Markstrom (VAN now CGY) .925
- Mikko Koskinen (EDM) .924
- Carey Price (MTL) .919
- Jack Campbell (TOR) .918
- David Rittich (CGY) .916
- Anders Nilsson (OTT) .915
- Fredrik Andersen (TOR) .915
- Laurent Brossoit (WPG) .909
- Thatcher Demko (VAN) .908
- Braden Holtby (WSH now VAN) .905
- Matt Murray (PIT now OTT) .904
- Mike Smith (EDM) .900
I think Winnipeg has the best goaltending in the division and by some margin. After that, Montreal because I believe in Carey Price and then there’s a pileup with Calgary, Edmonton, Toronto in my opinion. A half day’s drive to Vancouver and then Ottawa and I’m not really sure what they’re doing.
Bottom line: Edmonton could finish anywhere from first to fifth in my opinion. If Ken Holland is aggressive in addressing any goaltending issues, I think this team is a lock for the playoffs. There’s just too much going on with the skill forwards: Two scoring lines, a drop dead gorgeous power play and yes the penalty kill should be good to great again.
Thoughts?
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A loaded show as always and we’ll be monitoring the NHL-NHLPA situation closely all morning. Jason Gregor from TSN1260 will join us at 11 to talk about the Oilers and we’ll also chat about Carter Savoie’s weekend. NFL talk too, confirming guest as we speak. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Back on the radio, baby!
Damn, the World Juniors are struggling to get in to Edmonton safely and healthy for next weekend, US, German and Swedish players tested positive and are out, Swedish coaches tested positive, even Rene Fasel and a few other execs have tested positive.
Speaking of cash, and walking around money… Holland has a bit of it, given that Klefbom seemingly really isn’t returning.
$2.1M has been my guesstimate. That’s leaving $1.5M to sign Bear and $1.5M+ for in season injuries and so on.
There’s a lot of players still out there. My semi-plausible wish-list would include Granlund, Haula, Soderberg, Brassard, Vatanen, Hainsey, Chara.
I truly do believe Holland is going to sign at least one more player before the season begins.
What is with the breakout of parity in the Premier League?
With the anticipated big influx of players returning from Europe this week, it will be interesting to see if there is any word on a Kelfbom sighting unexpectedly!
I’m not sure why this is getting minuses, Klefbom returning would be the single biggest move the Oilers could make at this point.
But yeah, it sounds like Holland has all but ruled out Klefbom returning (what did he say, 99.8% or something?). Guess that means he has a little cash though.
Pierre LeBrun
@PierreVLeBrun
·
1m
Both sides targeting Jan. 13 start to season in order to get 56-game sked but even with financials no longer an issue as @DarrenDreger
first reported, still some work to be done on protocols, schedule, critical date, etc, plus subject to NHL BOG and NHLPA executive board approval
Per Dreger:
Sources say there will be no more discussions on proposed financial changes to the MOU outlining the terms of the CBA. Sunday the NHLPA proposed more deferred money, but didn’t include an increase in escrow percentage at any point. Focus now on a mid Jan start to season.
January 13 is the current target date to start the season.
We get, thanks to you in part, that deferrals now will be paid by the players in the future.
Do you know if those claw backs to achieve the 50 / 50 profit sharing ratio would be retroactive to the players that earned it, or put upon the players earning salary at that time?
Because if that was the case, it would seem the ‘brotherhood’ is not as much, and ’employees’ are pillaging future ’employees’ for their own gain.
Maybe it’s just me, but it seems counter intuitive.
The deferred money doesn’t even help get back to the 50/50 split as its not a hold-back (i.e. escrow) that will eventually get scooped by the owners due to knowing the players “owe the owners money” – its literally just deferred income that provides the owners with some additional working capital in the future.
That money remains guaranteed to the players – just not for a few years.
With respect to “employees pillaging future employees”, you are 100% right – any refusal by the existing union to “give back more now” (i.e. via escrow) is negotiating against those under future contract (and looking for contracts in the future).
The players owe a growing debt to the owners – its simply a matter of how much gets paid now and how much gets paid later – there will be a different group of payors. Not to mention, paying more later keeps the cap at $81.5M for a longer period, again, hurting those players looking for contracts in the future.
TSN going all in on broadcasting the WJHC…including televising very pre-tournament game.
https://www.tsn.ca/2021-iihf-wjc-broadcast-schedule-1.1221193
Nothing like an Austria-Slovakia exhibition game to get the blood boiling. 🙂
I’m sure a Canadian division of the AHL could strike a TV deal. If Toronto and Montreal would move their farm teams to Saskatoon and Regina, Vancouver to Red Deer, It would lower operating costs.
Per McKenzie, Team Canada still waiting for AHS to confirm they can leave quarantine but this the optimal plan:
“That would include practices Tuesday, a pair of Red-White intra-squad games sometime between Wednesday and Friday with the 25-man roster being named Friday or Saturday. Team would then check into the EDM bubble on Sunday
Bill Foley says the season likely to slide past January 15th.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/?sn-article=golden-knights-owner-says-season-start-may-slide-week-two-past-jan-15&template=basic
Benson has returned to Edmonton – atta boy – get quarantined and skating with the boys and ready for camp.
I anticipate a big influx from Europe over the next week.
Let’s just get this HOCKEY thing going!
Per McKenzie – a bunch of info on the World Juniors and the protocols for the teams arriving in to Edmonton next weekend (and some info on Team Canada getting out of their quarantine today):
https://twitter.com/TSNBobMcKenzie/status/1336045675121872897
We know that Sweden and the US have lost players due to Covid over the last few days – the Canadians being in full quarantine for two weeks in hotel rooms actually likely benefits them in this regard I would think.
Hellebyuck is definitely the class of the Canadian division.
Price would be next
Markstrom
Anderson
Koskinen
Demko Holtby tandem
Murray
Murray is closer to broken than a legit starter at this point.
Where are you seeing a gap between Holtby and Murray?
Murray’s gone .907, .919, .899 over 3 seasons.
Holtby has been .907, .911 and .897 and is 5 years older.
Or are you on the Demko train?
I would definitely like the idea of a Canadian division and each of the three American divisions just playing divisional games. I would much rather see ~8 games against each opponent in the division than 1-2 games against each team in the league and top 4 teams make the playoffs. This way you can put one division in a bubble if things get rough with a virus breakout, and if one division cant play all their games in time they can have a mini play-in to determine who their best 4 team are if needed.
The level of intensity playing one team that many times would be high making for good hockey
The biggest advantage for the fan is that the teams would develop a genuine dislike for one another which would lead to far more intense rivalries. Playing teams once or twice a year with a fairly long time between games is not conducive to building rivalries. Every game is a four point game.
I would MUCH rather see every team in the league (and all the talent and skill across the league – more crazy skill then ever) than play the same teams 8 times – even the flames, etc.
Of course, the Canadian division is a must for this season and it is what it is but I would prefer to see all the teams play the Oilers.
I’m looking forward to it for 1 year. Though I think it would get monotonous if it were permanent (of course it won’t be).
What was the date when we get to go back to the old site format?
I believe we landed on material changes once every 15 years… 😉
I think, for the most part, people miss the old comment system.
It was based upon a WordPress plugin called “Quote Comments.”
It hadn’t been updated in something like 4 years and is no longer compatible with the current version of WordPress.
Sadly, the plugin creator, Alex, apparently died following a battle with Leukemia in early 2019 (link).
Ryan, I apologize for the insensitive, disrespectful and ungrateful post from the community member above.
As you know, I was one of the members most expressly against the changes – largely due to my “I don’t like change” (I am the most routined person I know).
While there are some minor “nuances” regarding missing posts/replies that get hidden in the comments section, overall the changes are outstanding and I fully commend you and your efforts!
Thanks for that.
I love the new system, want to compliment all of the brilliant people involved.
I think it is great too. Just use it and you get used to it. Some people are just change resistant even if it’s an improvement.
The old site format was broken and beyond repair
Updates to WordPress required change
Yeah, because the old format where every post was derailed by the resident troll was so much better
I liked the old format better, but things pass away. Sometimes they fall apart. With the new format, I will probably post less, Because I only scroll forwards, not backwards, and I am too old to want to change. But this may be a good thing. OP and HH inevitably repeat themselves.** So I’m not likely to miss much.
**I have been known to beat a dead horse too.
Ha, note the Kassian contract reference out of the blue just above!
Really? I hadn’t noticed….much! 🙂
LT, you always refer to 5v5 as “God’s Flashlight” and under the glare of that flashlight…well I get where the critics are coming from.
That said, I am encouraged by every tweak and move this off-season save and except Smith – and even then I understood it.
Coming out of the 16-17 playoff run this team was met with some inflated expectations and they failed to meet them. Let’s see how they fare with a chip on their shoulders from being slighted by the Powers That Be.
By contrast, I wonder how the Buds will fare with 6 other teams all squarely out to take out the “Center of the Universe” every night. I could see them getting caved early if they aren’t ready and I am here for that schadenfreude.
The Kassian contract blunder obviated real significant improvement though
It’s like Kassian is the center of the universe.
The black hole at the centre of the universe.
Given the most likely outcome is a 48 game season, I expect goaltending performance to have an elevated significance.
This likely works in favour of teams that have a goalie with a track record of being able to steal games with stellar win streaks.
Carey Price would certainly be at the top of that list and Montreal now has likely the best backup in Jake Allen who has been superb with a reduced work load posting .927 in 24 regular season games and .935 in 4 playoff games last season.
Connor Hellebyuck has established himself as elite but Brossiot does not inspire confidence at all.
When looking at Markstrom just by the numbers, it’s easy to forget he was playing behind a team that gave up massive amounts of rush plays and was not good at defending them. I expect he will post much more significant numbers playing with a team that plays a tighter defensive system with better defenders.
The remaining teams all have major questions in goal so their potential success or failure will likely be determined by other factors.
It’s been 3 years since Price’s regular season Sv% says ‘elite’. .900, .918, .909. I agree that Allen is the strongest of the backups in the division. $15 million doesn’t buy what it used to though. 😉
Markstrom’s last 3 years are .912, .912, .918. Who knows what Rittich is. I’m sure you watch the Canucks more than I do so I will take your word on the rush plays.
Hellebuyuck’s .924, .913, .922 looks particularly impressive in front of a dcorp that has ‘suspect’ written all over it although it looked to me like Maurice was able to get his forwards to buy in to a more responsible defensive game last season. I share your sentiments on Broissoit.
I repeat that I find goalies difficult to measure by their numbers due to how much those depend on what is going on in front of them.
And then there is style which I alluded to in an earlier post today.
You know how there are guys who always have great counting numbers at the end of the year because they go to the net and know what to do when they get there? I think of Perron as an example.
And then there are guys who skate like the wind, dipsy doodle through half the team and nothing much ever ends up in the net. Hemsky was a bit like that off the top of my head. Wonderful player but the counting numbers never really lined up with the visual.
I think there are goalies like that who whip that glove out to snag the corner shot or lift their leg when they are down on the ice and the puck hits it as it is going in and those are things we remember more than the wrist shot from the slot that went in because the goalie didn’t move out far enough to cut off the net. Or didn’t quite control the rebound.
So I don’t know whether to trust the numbers or the visual when I think about goalies. I guess I have always been a fan of Holland’s take that the middle of the pack goalie is good enough to win with.
With the amount of cap money Holland had available he made the Oilers better with the additions of Barrie, Turris etc than by signing at goalie for big money. Mikko’s numbers last year were mid-pack and the expectation is that he will continue to improve as he has done year-over-year in the NHL for the Oilers. Holland has shown that he will do what is required, and so I for one expect a trade if Smith does not work out.
Given a much shorter season, it might be more instructive than ever to look at how goaltenders performed in the playoffs.
In some cases these are very small sample sizes but while the numbers certainly don’t tell us everything, they are not nothing.
Demko 4GP .985
Holtby 8GP .906
Price 10GP .936
Allen 5GP .935
Anderson 5GP .936
Campbell 0GP
Markstrom 14GP .919
Rittich 1GP .667
Hellebyuk 4GP .904
Brossoit 0GP
Koskinen 4GP .889
Smith 1GP .783
Ottawa DNP
The Montreal duo stands out here and of course a huge dose of salt is required but I believe the goaltenders who can elevate their games in shortened opportunities will have a much greater impact than in a normal season.
I don’t think we have a true take on Demko yet and I expect Holtby will benefit from working with Ian Clark and is not of the age when we should expect him to fall off a cliff.
Anderson is steady in Toronto but Campbell only has 64 GP so is pretty much an unknown as a backup although he did post a .928 in 38 GP in LA a couple of seasons ago.
As mentioned earlier, I expect Markstrom will greatly benefit from playing behind a better, more structured D in Calgary but would have very little confidence in Rittich.
Winnipeg as in previous seasons will live or die with Hellebyuk…God forbid he falters. or gets injured.
Koskinen is certainly much better than his playoff performance but I think he certainly has intermittent periods of poor play and I shudder to think what might happen if one of those periods coincides with Smith cratering.
Having Forsberg in the bull pen doesn’t inspire much confidence since he’s only played 48 NHL games over the past 5 seasons with .897, .908, .851, .907 and .866 save percentages in those seasons. Doesn’t look like an NHL goalie to me.
Your intuition that Holland likely has a backup (pun intended) plan in place has real merit because in a 48 game schedule, a 5 or 6 game losing streak can crater the season.
One of the advantages of having an old school experienced GM is that you have seen enough that things going to shit doesn’t surprise you as much as it does youngsters who tend to think things should turn out the way they are supposed to turn out. 😉
Of important note when referencing Forsberg’s save percentage – 35 of those 48 games were in one season where he had the .908. The other seasons ranged between 1 and 5 games.
NHL career .901 SV%No screaming Hell, but not quite the impression the pasted numbers gave.
All the sub .900 performances were of the 1-5 game variety. Sample sizes which mean little unless you’re Thatcher Demko.
“Given a much shorter season, it might be more instructive than ever to look at how goaltenders performed in the playoffs.”
Hahahaha
I literally shot water out my nose. FML did eeyore seriously try to make a point based on 3 game sample size because it favoured his narrative? Could you imagine if someone put this in front of him from a oiler positive angle?
This is low bar even for him….but i guess what’s the downside. Set up a bet on over under of Demko having a 0.985 sv percentage? Not worth it, even if he commited, as there is a better chance of him welching than Demko not hitting that number given
sample size
On the goaltending, I saw this tweet from our old friend Mr Tierney today. He’s using it as a vehicle to highlight King Henrik’s abilities more than anything, but you can sort of guesstimate where other goalies are landing.
Toronto and Winnipeg – their expected goals against is pretty high. Now, if they’ve gotten materially better on the back end that number might come down a bit this year. Both of the Jets goalies actually look like they performed well in terms of saving expected goals. Toronto as well, has one goalie marginally in the OK part of the graph, and one that cratered (not sure who is who but let’s assume the decent one is Freddie) – despite the crappy save percentage he’s likely still a good net minder.
Vancouver goalie – Markstrom seems to have crept into the hard work – poorly performing category. I’m not convinced Calgary has gotten better in goal. Demko also is suspect. Holtby hasn’t been Holtby for 3 years or so.
Montreal – Carey looks to be right around the league average in terms of quality faced, who knows if he’ll start stepping back or not (I’m still a believer like LT), but Allen has decent stats from St Louis, so even if he does they have their solution in house.
Ottawa – who the heck knows.
Edmonton – Koskinen as expected is in the good facing hard work category. Smith was slightly poor facing slightly easier work. I don’t feel bad about Koskinen as the number one at all. We could do better than Smith, but the fact we’re not tied into a long term deal like Calgary is with Markstrom, or betting on Holtby becoming Holtby again we should be alright.
https://twitter.com/ChartingHockey/status/1335590242938736642?s=20
that being the aforementioned tweet/chart.
I do believe that Markstrom is “the real deal” and in a tier higher than Koskinen despite similar numbers this past season. Markstrom has a bit of a longer track record and performed with a higher start rate than Mikko. At the same time, tending wasn’t the flames major issue last year and, while he didn’t start as many games, Talbot had better numbers than Markstom and was good in the 2nd half after, essentially, taking over for “Big Save Dave” – did the flames spend their cap space at the right position?
Demko is a legit plus prospect and I think he’s going to be a very solid to plus NHL starting tender but he hasn’t proven than yet. He had a sparkling play-off but all NHL pedgiree tenders can get hot for a series of games – see Brian Boucher. Demko hasn’t been great in the regular season in his NHL career – up and down as one would expect a developing tender. He could pop this year and prove to be a legit starter or he could prove to be not quite there. Holtby, well, that was awful last season and not good the year before.
Demko went something like 3-4-1 with a .906 sp% when thrust into the starting role last year after Markstrom got injured. Do you trust that or the short 3 and a bit game heater in the playoffs?
Why would i correspond with you on this site? You and you gang got your wish and chased me away from a site I’ve been posting on for over 15 years – congrats.
The week I stop posting on that site, you start to post on this site and respond to my posts.
In any event, read my post again and you’ll get the answer to your question.
I will also not respond to you any longer – that is what you wanted dude.
That question wasn’t towards you specifically. It actually was supporting your point. Just adding info, not looking for a response from you. Dug into his stats after the Markstrom injury, and added to the conversation.
Ive had this account on this site for many years. Didn’t just start it a few weeks ago. Been dormant for awhile, so don’t flatter yourself thinking im posting for you. Have a little more time to converse here now.
While the numbers posted don’t rally paint the Oilers as “the class” of an all-Canadian division, at the same time, the Oilers had the most points and best points percentage in that season.
Special teams count and clearly the Oilers were the class of the pack on special teams.
Expect regression on both special teams but the PP should remain elite.
At the same time, while the 5 on 5 goal differential was poor on the season, it was top 10 in the NHL in 2020 after some structural changes to the lineup were made.
Also, the additions of Kahun, Turris and Puljujarvi should provide a material bump to the 5 on 5 goal differentia. GA may not come down but the bottom six should no longer be devoid of offence.
The Oilers improved this off-season (assuming they can mitigate the Klefbom loss like we anticipate). Other teams did as well but I can see the Oilers keeping their spot at the top of the division. I could see them in the middle as well.
It really may come down to Caleb Jones. If he’s for real / ready, we’re good. Otherwise we’re stretched w/o further additions.
As we’ve discussed, I agree on Jones – his ability to handle 2LD at 5 on 5 is a major key to the coming season (and a big factor in to potential off-season transactions).
He killed his deployment last year – both at 3LD and 2LD – small sample size and killing 2LD for 3 weeks is not the same as doing it over the grind of an NHL season but the bet on him is not unreasonable.
Those extra three weeks could be a killer!?
# shortened season
#devil made me do it
I’m wondering where this 3 week stretch is? I see a Feb 19-Mar 5 stretch, he played over 16 mins a game. But, other than that 2 week stretch, where is this 3 week stretch that I keep reading about?
Holland has does a nice job addressing the 5v5 differential and the secondary scoring issues. Addition of Kahun should help solidify the top 6 and improve the 5v5 numbers. A 3rd line of Ennis-Turris-JP should absolutely outscore the competition at 5v5. Moving on from Sheahan (-20) and having 4C options (Hass or JJ whoever plays better) will move the needle compared to last year.
Oilers had the lowest 5v5 next to the Senators but also had the highest differential on special teams next to the Senators.
PK + PP Scoring Differential
Ottawa: +26
Edmonton: +24
Winnipeg: +17
Van / Mon: +14
Toronto: +10
Calgary: +8
No reason to believe this situation will change. Therefore, the Oilers having done the most to improve their greatest problem area should finish 1st in the Canadian division.
No reason? Gonna have to disagree. Special teams are pretty volatile year-to-year, our PP just produced a (near) historically good season, and our PK lost Sheahan, Klefbom, and could very well be missing at least one of Khaira or Archibald on any given night. Not going to say it’s impossible that they sustain their level, but there are plenty of reasons as to why.
As for the 5-on-5 play, I wouldn’t be so certain of the 3rd line outscoring. They should definitely be less of a burden than Sheahan’s iteration but, unless they get butter soft minutes (which necessitates another line take a greater share of the defensive burden), outscoring strikes me as unlikely.
Personally, I’d be confident marking them down for ~45% GF at 5-on-5. Assuming the same # of goals (54) are scored while they’re on the ice as were scored while Sheahan was out there (17-37), a 45% GF would mean 25-29. That’s a +16 in goal share year-over-year and constitutes MORE than enough improvement for me.
I’m not certain a line of Ennis/Turris/Puljujarvi will outscore the opposition but i do think that will MUCH closer to 50% than we’ve seen in the past. I believe the bottom 6 will score more goals than last season, quite a few more, but I’m not positive the GA will reduce.
My plus/minus is getting hammered today for some fairly benign posts.
I love it!
Okay, here’s another comment ready for the – hammer.
My gut instincts alone inform me that Tippett is going to have hard time keeping Turris out of the RHS top six despite how pretty the alignment of him as 3c looks.
Who do you think he is replacing?
The Oilers likely already have a legit NHL RW as a healthy scratch with the depth chart including:
Yamamoto
Kassian
Puljujarvi
Archibald
Chiasson
That’s not even taking in to account Neal (who does like the right side but is likely lining up on the left).
I’m not sure moving Turris to the right side, knocking a second one of those guys out of the lineup or over to the left which would knock Neal or Kassian out of the lineup as well given both Haas and Khaira are needed to play center.
Are you anticipating:
Nuge/McDavid/Turris
Kahun/Drai/Yamamoto
Ennis/Haas/Puljujarvi
Neal/Khaira/Archie
Chiasson, Kassian
I’m not sure who will falter, but Turris is good money to beat out many of the right shot candidates based on his past scoring.
Sure but that still doesn’t mean it makes sense for the team given the depth at RW and the lack of depth at center (if both Nuge and Turris are on the wing).
Look. Some famed poster here taught us the value of PPG as a reliable predictive tool.
Turris has been a near lock for 0.5 ppg or more for the past ten seasons.
That’s a fact.
Kassian has managed that feat once (last year with 97) and nearly twice in his career.
JP is an unknown commodity.
Yamamoto is a sophomore.
Coaches like reliable vets and scoring.
If doing the utmost to win is the priority, as it should be, Turris should certainly be in the running for a top six role.
Kassian, at his cap hit, should be fired into the sun.
Yamamoto will NOT shoot 25% next season..
As you say, JP is an unknown commodity and the Rogers’ bees are just waiting for him.
Oilers can and have won games playing Kassian with McDavid. They have lost games because they had no 3rd line. There are 12 and a half million reasons why McDavid has to play with less than optimal line mates.
And, yes, I know Turris makes less than Kassian. Turris is needed as the 3C until such time as there is an alternative.
Yamamoto won’t shoot 25%, that is very likely true but, at the same time, he also won’t have only 2 power play points………
Of note, his G/60 on the PP are the highest on the team.
Of further note, playing wing with one of the elite players in the league as his center, a player he has chemistry with, will lead to an above average shooting percentage – not 25% but sustainably higher.
This is nonsense.
Kassian plays primarily with “one of the elite players in the league” and his shooting percentage was 15.2%
His career best was in Vancouver 6 years ago at 18.18%
As Yamamoto plays more games his scoring rates will decline…the only questions is…how much?
Kassian does not have the offensive skill-set nor the offensive intelligence of Yamamoto nor does he have the chemistry with McDavid that Yamamoto has with Drai.
The only thing that is nonesense is trying to compare offensive abilities of Kassian and Yamamoto.
So who plays 3rd line centre in your scenario because it won’t be Nuge by the reasoning you gave for moving Nuge up. And so with no legitimate 3rd line centre (as of today you have Yamomoto, Kassian, Puljujarvi, Chiasson, Archibald and Neal sharing the other 3 RW spots?
I won’t discount the possibility of a trade but as the roster is currently sits I don’t see it.
Balance. If you move Turris up I think you lose it.
EDIT: I see OP already said the same thing more or less.
I had already acknowledged that it throws the roster out of alignment.
I also said that Tippett will have a hard time keeping Turris out of the top six. That’s not me making a guarantee that he’ll play there.
Really, there are a lot of scenarios.
If Kassian plays effectively in his role on 97’s wing, even though he doesn’t help out much with defence on that line, then Turris should slot in at 3c.
However,If Kassian struggles, then someone will have to replace him.
Based on his past scoring and history, I don’t think that’s going to be JP, at least right away.
I also don’t see Chiasson, Neal, or Archibald as viable alternatives.
If they did have to play Turris at RW, while creating a hole at 3c, it also further contributes to the logjam at RW.
That would probably require a trade or so to balance the roster.
I’d agree with you aside from the lack of other C options.
Everyone wants JP to prove to be a player so bad. But, I’ve thought of Turris on the RW in the top 6 myself. That will force a bottom 6 RW out, and JP has shown less than any other RW. I would bet on him being first odd man on RW out.
I’ve written this here before without any response so not sure if it is people think I am out to lunch and too polite to say so but here goes again.
Koskinen does not inspire confidence visually because he is not particularly athletic compared to some of the acrobatics you see from other goalies.
His game is size and positioning. To me the reason his performance improved from his first year to his second is that he became more comfortable with the angles of the typical NHL size rink.
The man is huge and he gets in the way and blocks out the sun. If you can pick that top corner you can score on him. If you can get him moving you can score on him. But when his defence is doing its job and he can get set you mostly just hit him or miss the net.
This is not a criticism. Just look at the numbers. But Koskinen is not a ‘highlight’ goalie. Just reasonably effective.
Smith, on the other hand, is very athletic for a big man but leaves holes and wanders and makes highlight saves and lets in goals that leave you wondering how he still has a job in the NHL – and wins more games than seems reasonable given his S% for reasons that are not entirely clear.
And, yes, time will catch up to Smith. It might be this year. To some extent it already has but his decline so far is more of a slope than a cliff. If the cliff cometh for him this year Holland will have to lose a trade to rescue the season.
Smith may also have had a positive influence on Mikko as his puck handling has improved greatly during the year with Mike Smith. Forsberg is a decent 3rd option if either of the two get hurt, or Smith does in fact fall off the cliff.
Good summary. 🙂
I think, and I may be wrong here, but Koskinen seems to go through funks where he struggles to track the puck.
When he’s tracking the puck at decent levels, his size and positioning allows him to be a middle of the road starter–if his workload is carefully managed. That’s where his numbers were last season, which is a positive.
Smith, on the other hand, is our primary area of concern. His play was absolutely atrocious during the playoffs (play-in round). I’m not a fan of his never-ending puck-handling gaffes either.
At least, we already have Anton Forsberg to fill the ‘replacement level’ goaltending slot for a backup.
I didn’t see Smith in the play in so for better or worse my opinion of him is not coloured by that performance.
I don’t think either of us would be surprised if Holland has a name in his back pocket of a guy that is available for more than he wants to pay but who can be had for an over pay.
That would be prudent GM’ing.
Hopefully that name doesn’t rhyme with “Jimmy Howard.” 🙂
Yeah, it would be useful to look at the better goalies on shorter contracts on subpar teams…. eventually these types could be available.
Also, there’s often a few decent bets that go through the waiver wire when teams with three goalies try to sneak one thru. I wonder if Holland would consider a claim to upgrade Smith.
I hate to admit it, but Calgary occasionally makes some smart decisions.
I think Domingue looks like a little better bet for a 3rd string goalie than Forsberg though the gap might be smaller than I think.
The fact that Holland was in on Markstrom tells me that Koskinen is not only available but that he had a trade partner for him.
I don’t believe he intended to go into the season with $11 M invested in that position when there were so many other holes that needed attention and money.
Pretty sure Koskinen’s agent would draw the same conclusion.
Koskinen’s 5 on 5 save % was .921 over his 38 appearances. That put him at 12th out of the 31 goalies who started more than 35 games. That’s at the upper end of middle of the road “starters” taking into account all the games he played this season not just the good games. His overall save percentage was 6th among goalies starting 35 games. Lower the bar to 25 games started (well under half the games of any team last year, but some starters may have had injuries) the list jumps to 49 goalies, and Koskinen is 13th and 18th in 5 on 5 and overall save % respectively, again still in the upper half. In 2019/20 he fully covered the bet on being a legitimate at least middle of the pack NHL starter on average not just when he played well.
And in terms of goalie usage, over the 3 seasons between 2011-2014, with the 48 game strike year in the middle, the starters on average played the highest percentage of their teams’ games in the strike season despite games every 2.06 days instead of every 2.20 days. 13 starters played at least 3/4 that season compared to 11 the year before and only 7 the year after. Like then, everyone has had a long off season to get healthy and rested. Philosophies are different now than then, but I see true starters playing at least as high a percentage of their teams games as they did last year. Seems like Koskinen should be able to play at least 2/3 of the Oilers games, in either a shortened or full season if it is roughly evenly spread over the season (and not almost all the games in the last 30). The number one job should be his to lose.
I don’t have a problem with Koskinen for next season, per say.
Obviously, I’d rather the name on his jersey read “Hellebuyck,” but that’s not an option.
Koskinen was in the top 12 of GSAx (from Evolving Wild, min 500 FA) which was also encouraging.
I worry about Koskinen’s ability to play more than 50% of the games. The season prior, he played more and his results waned.
Mike Smith’s results, were not good, to put it mildly. Tippett’s a very savvy coach and there’s a pretty good reason he split the workload last season.
Again, my concern is with doubling down on Smith. Obviously, there were contract factors (Holland looking for a 1-year term) and cap considerations that led us down this road.
We have Forsberg, at least, to step in if necessary to provide some replacement level goaltending.
Holland might have some options to upgrade Smith. It may or may not be necessary.
I’m not defending Smith’s play during the play-in, during the season or positing on his play this coming year but I’m not sure so much stock can be put in to his play in the play-in. He was absolutely atrocious, I agree, but the sample size is less than 27 minutes.
I think we need to disregard his play in that period and a half and analyze his play during the regular season which isn’t favorable either mind you.
Although his numbers were quite bad at first look, the one number that really counts was good (win %). I wonder if his puck moving and/or communication with his defenders materially contributed to the higher goals the oil scored per game when he started? Does anyone know if he had similar results in past seasons? Smith is kind of the Kris russel of goaltending, the stats look awful but somehow the good guys score more then the other guys when they’re on the ice.
That argument is out there and it is a valid argument – I can’t say one way or the other but, from my viewings, I don’t put too much stock in Smith’s puck-handling having that material of an effect on goals for – purely by eye test.
While I think that Smith’s ability to stop the puck and allowing the d-man to release to the corner or half wall for a short pass (as oppossed to picking the puck up below the goal line and taking a bang) is helpful, frankly, other than that, I don’t find his “puck handling” to be a plus. He is not great on the stretch pass and, given he thinks he is, he tries it quote a bit and it generally simply loses possession.
I find Smith is aggressive to a fault as he’s trying to impact the game with his puck-handling.
Communication with defenders? Well, I don’t find that to be a strong point to tell you the truth – lots of miscommunications to my eye.
Smith definitely is the Kris Russell of goaltending. His puck moving helps in real time, but stats can’t quantify it. Having a goalie that can move the puck so opponents forwards don’t hit and wear down his defensemen isn’t tracked. The “by eye test” of some doesn’t show itself in stats, so he gets a negative reaction. As a dman, having a goalie that keeps you from getting hit on the forecheck because he can move the puck with a short or medium pass, helps more than what any stat can show. Sometimes, you’ve got to live it to understand, and some don’t get that part of the game because there isn’t a stat to back it up.
Per Pronman:
Russia announces a national team roster for an upcoming international tournament. Marchenko-CBJ, Morozov-VGK, Voronkov-CBJ and Samorukov-EDM among those called.
Here is the Russian roster for the Channel One Cup that included Sammy:
https://twitter.com/khl_eng/status/1335989785777860608
I predicted Brossiot would likely end up with 100+ games before he’s done.. I’m happy everytime I still see his name out there. While I don’t think he’s going to make it to starter level at this point…just hate the amount of develop time then drop that has plagued the Oilers in the goalie department as well. Is there any other team that has gotten so little from it’s goalie prospects over the last 25 years?
The organization got spoiled early and thought it was easy. Goalies and their progress are hard to predict. I think it has to do with a very special skill set of athleticism and hockey IQ. Management level results required as the puck stops here for better or worse!
Dubnyk’s bullet was the worst of all. They changed the rules that off season and because he was like just an inch taller he lost more padding than a lot of the bigger named goalies that were on large end….I’m so glad he ended up wandering into the desert and spent the smallest amount of time with Burke sufficent enought to get him back sorted out.
That was a petry grade shot in face style loss. Couldn’t believe when he served as scapegoat for a lot of what ailed the oilers at that point.
We;ve been hoping to trade into cujo or rollie, over properly placing enough faith in homegrown options, at first blip of team sagging, for basically the whole cap era past first couple years.
We gots em right where we wants em
Nothing to see here in Edmonton, move along now
Talbot played 73 games for us a few seasons ago. Hopefully Koski is up for a similar workload.
Won’t have to play a multitude of games due shortened season. Barring injury it is going to be a good year for older veterans.
That would mean a substantial playoff run – lets do it.
I anticipate a 65/35 type split as the plan going in to the season.
We know that Coach T. won’t be shy to go to Smith if he’s running hot or Koski is struggling but, after not seeing the ice again after being pulled in game 1, I think he have some sort of “proof” that Coach T. has the ability to move on from “his guy”.
Koski certainly wasn’t “killing it” in games 2-4 but Smith never got the net back.
I’m sold on the PP being a winner, and on Koskinen being at least an NHL goaler. Will wait and see how PK comes together. Think part of an article by Young Willis mentioned PK less predictable year over year, even with little change in personnel, coaching.
From quite a few accounts, the systems/structure change to the PK for this past season was material – Playfair changed quite a bit and but in new systems related to when to puck pursuit, etc.
Of course, the additions of Archie and Sheahan helped but I think a big part of the uptick in the PK last year was coaching and systems.
I agree, there is more team variance in PK year over year than there is on the PK but I have confidence in Playfair to get the likes of Yamamoto, Haas, Turris up to speed with what made the PK successful this past season.
With that said, there is little doubt that both the PP and PK are likely to regress from last season – at the same time, the GF for the bottom six should spike materially.