Back in September 2008 this blog was contemplating life with Dustin Penner at center. Coach Craig MacTavish was always turning wingers into centers (and the NHL games would turn them back into wingers again). The experiment wouldn’t last long, but does recall a time when the Oilers had a plethora of forwards who the coach had a tough time finding optimal deployment.
THE ATHLETIC!
I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.
- New Lowetide: The 2020-21 Oilers finally deploying elite talent in the right places
- New Jonathan Willis: Team Draft vs. Team Trade: Which collection of all-time Oilers is better?
- Lowetide: Seattle Kraken expansion mock draft 5.0: Who could the Oilers lose?
- Lowetide: Oilers prospects off to impressive starts worldwide
- Lowetide: Which late-value or tryout players should the Oilers invite to camp?
- Lowetide: Why McDavid and Nuge together could be key to Oilers’ playoff success
- Lowetide: Projected training camp roster for the 2020-21 Oilers.
- Jonathan Willis: Will the Oilers repeat their power play magic in 2021?
- Lowetide: Why Dmitri Samorukov is an Oilers prospect with a big future
- Lowetide: Why hasn’t Ken Holland pursued college free agents for the Oilers?
- Lowetide: Increase in skill wingers adds mystery to Oilers preseason
- Lowetide: How many ‘peak seasons’ can Oilers fans expect from Connor McDavid?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ increased focus on drafting skill is key to future success
- Lowetide: A short history of Oilers’ impact prospects at the world juniors
- Lowetide: Why Dave Tippett’s training camp with Oilers will be so compelling
- Lowetide: Oilers first-round pick Dylan Holloway’s fast start has fans buzzing
- Jonathan Willis: A brief history of Oilers teams with goalie problems, and how they overcame them
- Jonathan Willis: The Oilers are better with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl apart at 5-on-5
- Lowetide: Oilers’ reasonable expectations for 2020-21: The results
- Lowetide: Oilers’ reasonable expectations for 2020-21: Goals against
- Lowetide: Oilers’ reasonable expectations for 2020-21: The Goals
- Lowetide: Oilers Top 20 prospects, post-draft edition.
TRAINING CAMP 2008
Pierre Lebrun inspired the conversation back in preseason 2008, writing “For now, MacTavish sees Cole on the first line with Shawn Horcoff and Ales Hemsky. Cogliano, Gagner and Robert Nilsson were a hit last season, so MacTavish will probably leave the kids together to start the season. A solid third line right now would see Fernando Pisani, Dustin Penner and captain Ethan Moreau.”
It took MacT some time to suss out the lines but when he did there were some good trios on the roster. Here are some five on five stats:
- Penner-Horcoff-Hemsky: 302 minutes, 61 percent shot differential, 21-5 goals
- Cole-Gagner-Nilsson: 172 minutes, 49 percent shot differential, 9-6 goals
- Cogliano-Gagner-Nilsson: 169 minutes, 46 percent shot differential, 5-7 goals
- Moreau-Pouliot-Cogliano: 132 minutes, 46 percent shot differential, 8-5 goals
MacT’s top line was fire and he was able to use Eric Cole with two kids and win the goal share. Cogliano landed on a makeshift line and Ales Kotalik helped after he was added last in the season. Last season, Dave Tippett found a solution beginning in January but the McDavid lines were a concern:
- Draisaitl-McDavid-Kassian: 443 minutes, 46 percent shot differential, 28-25 goals
- Nuge-Draisaitl-Yamamoto: 317 minutes, 53 percent shot differential, 28-8 goals
McDavid didn’t play on a consistent line for the rest of the season, so the numbers arrive in dollops and are uneven. Here are the “pairs” for McDavid last season, sorted by minutes. I think you’ll agree on the wisdom of bringing in three wingers (Ennis, Dominik Kahun, Jesse Puljujarvi) in an effort to increase the odds of success:
- Zack Kassian: 663 minutes, 49 percent shot differential, 42-35 goals
- Leon Draisaitl: 553 minutes, 46 percent shot differential, 34-36 goals
- James Neal: 226 minutes, 50 percent shot differential, 8-11 goals
- Josh Archibald: 145 minutes, 41 percent shot differential, 8-5 goals
- Alex Chiasson: 87 minutes, 42 percent shot differential, 6-6 goals
- Sam Gagner: 75 minutes, 49 percent shot differential, 5-6 goals
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: 66 minutes, 47 percent shot differential, 4-2 goals
- Tyler Ennis: 59 minutes, 41 percent shot differential, 5-5 goals
- Joakim Nygard: 54 minutes, 59 percent shot differential, 6-2 goals
- Andreas Athanasiou: 44 minutes, 41 percent shot differential, 2-1 goals
- Patrick Russell: 42 minutes, 59 percent shot differential, 1-3 goals
- Jujhar Khaira: 30 minutes, 52 percent shot differential, 1-1 goals
- Kailer Yamamoto: 26 minutes, 65 percent shot differential, 1-1 goals
- Markus Granlund: 16 minutes, 67 percent shot differential, 0-1 goals
- Riley Sheahan: 8 minutes, 75 percent shot differential, 2-0 goals
- Tyler Benson: 3 minutes, 25 percent shot differential, 0-1 goals
- Tomas Jurco: 2 minutes, 0-3 shots, no goals
Nuge-McDavid-Kassian; Kahun-Draisaitl-Yamamoto. Holland and Tippett will begin year two with two dynamic centers and four wingers worthy of skating beside them. Perfect? No. Progress? I believe so.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we have a substantial show with impressive guests at at every turn. Hart Levine from PuckPedia will join us and talk about Ethan Bear’s next contract and why Philippe Myers is an important comparable. Jeff Krushell from Krush Performance will chime in at 10:40 about the mlb offseason and the massive changes in the minor leagues. At 11, Frank Seravalli from TSN will talk to us about the NHL’s return to play, possible trades, free agency and January 13 as a start date (is it reasonable). 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
As if the early arrows for Holloway and Savoie, among others, isn’t positive enough, word from TSN yesterday the Kenny Holland is part of Doug Armstrong’s mgmt team for the 2022 Olympics.
Holloway scored today in the 4-0 intra-squad game win.
Final cuts tomorrow.
Can’t imagine Holloway’s place on the team is in jeopardy.
Matty with some quotes from Holland today.
On the Bear contract:
“I don’t know if w e can have all three right defencemen playing 20 minutes. If Barrie is on the power play, which stays out for 1:30, and Larsson is our No. 1 penalty-killer, maybe Ethan’s minutes are reduced,” said Holland. “You can say the Myers contract is a comparable, and I can look at Ryan Graves (Colorado), who led the league in plus-minus at plus-40 and had arbitration rights and negotiated a three-year deal, giving up a UFA (unrestricted free-agent) year with an average of $3.1 million. Graves had nine goals and 26 points. Bear had five goals and 21 points,” said Holland.
“This past year, (Tony) DeAngelo was coming off a 25-point season and he signed in New York for one year at $925,000. Travis Dermott just signed for one year at $874,000 in Toronto
———
When talking about expanded rosters, he said its all media right now, GMs haven’t been advised and he’ll need to know the transitional provisions but did reference the following with respect to Bouchard being on that roster “at some point we have to see what he can do!”.
————
On Klef, shoulder has seen some relief but still contemplating surgery and targeting September. Shane was indeed right!
That Holland is now negotiating in public likely means things are not going well with the Bear extension.
Given your thoughts on the contract negotiations with each of Berglund, Lagesson and Kemp, mere days before each signed, we can expect the Bear extension soon.
I don’t recall Holland discussing the contracts for those poor buggers in public.
If Bear signs for, say, $1 million, he immediately loses 30% of his contract value to withholding and escrow meaning he does not get a raise while performing #2RD duties.
From what Holland said, he appears to be thinking in the $1M ranges he obviously doesn’t value Bear all that much.
Since Bear has no leverage he either has to rely on Holland offering a contract commensurate with his role or hold out.
Should be interesting.
Interesting parsing of the ~$1M, $2.5M and $3.2M deals that Holland discussed.
So, do you figure he’ll hold out?
Hehe. You know HH doesn’t like to answer questions that commit him to a specific position. 😉
Honestly at this point I’d be ok if they just vaccinated the professional athletes and coaches and trainers first. Obviously the optics aren’t great and there’s probably not a lower risk group than professional athletes. But it’s not like there’s a huge number of professional athletes and if they can resume their games without having to shut down every week. I’m gonna continue wearing my N95 mask around covid patients whether I’m vaccinated or not
@JShannonhl
For clarification… The NHL is interested in securing vaccine when and if it’s available for private purchase. Is it at this point? — no. The league also is adamant they would not jump the line to do so.
That means white market private purchase and every approved vaccine manufacturer accepted cash up front from govt’s to defer private sales until specific commitments were delivered. They’re gonna wait a while no matter.
Yes. What, 2,500 total for the NHL? Small amount really. jmo. And if we’re going to be self righteous then the poor countries should get it first. Not a bad idea.
Vaccine or not, the next three months at work are gonna suck.
The only variable is do I get a hockey season to unwind to when I get home or not.
Since I am retired this pandemic has affected me far less than most. It has sucked a lot of the fun out of life but compared to those of you who work in the medical field it has been nothing really.
Hoping you can see light at the end of the tunnel with the vaccine roll out & that the worst is soon over for you and all others here who have been most affected.
That’s tough.
Trying to be optimistic, new cases in Wisconsin peaked 2-3 weeks ago (I believe you said you’re in Wisconsin). So hopefully the very worst for hospitals there will be past soon. I’m sure it doesn’t feel like that now.
And yeah, some distraction with hockey would be really nice.
Yes. But Shannon says the NHL will wait for private sales to start and there’s almost no chance we see that until the public buyers complete their first round of high priority with their pre-paid buys. That’s the reality whatever we all think. Not happening before March.
Pointed out yesterday that the status quo (subject to future events and decisions) is that some NHL teams might be able to host games outside bubbles and some might not. The positive is that some Canadian teams already have permission for training camp and the playoff bubbles are a great precedent for at least opening training camps.
Today Seravalli reported that many teams are concerned that they might not be able to host the first 20 games and that hybrid bubbles are still on the table. Also pods where displaced teams temporarily play in NHL arenas that can host visitors.
Doubtful it would be the Pfizer-BioNTech one, because of the deep cold handling restrictions,
J&J/Janssen is completing its phase 3 trial. That would be my bet on the one that the NHL would be purchasing. I think it is a single dose, and probably have massive quantities pre-produced because of Operation Warp Speed.
https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-initiates-pivotal-global-phase-3-clinical-trial-of-janssens-covid-19-vaccine-candidate
J&J will also have early runs tied up for the same reason. They’re going to be limited to approved vaccines and as OP points out the NHL is going to wait until the one of those companies opens up to private sales. That’s behind all of those the pre-paid commitments to public health purchasers. Good to plan, but doubt they’ll get anything Q1.
I haven’t yet seen if their product is using the same RNA technology as Moderna and Pfizer or if it is based upon the older prototype for vaccines.
Do you know?
It is not mRNA. It is the same older process used by AZ/Oxford, the Russian one, the Chinese one.
J&J has a single dose phase 3 near completion and a 2nd one with two doses underway .
Different.
EDIT: Drat, beaten to it! Such is life.
Viral vector. Single dose and two dose trials. Huge deal if 1st dose is highly effective. Less concern then if viral vector from dose 1 primes against the viral vector in dose 2. J&J ebola vaccine sidestepped that risk with 2 different vectors. Russian covid vaccine followed the 2 vector approach.
Thanks for all 3 answers.
Yeah thanks to all for the answers.
One point about the ‘deep cold handling’. It’s not a big issue if the vaccine is going to a specific place at a specific time (like a hockey team on Tuesday, March 22nd, say).
The Pfizer/Moderna vaccines are fine on dry ice. So they can be shipped by courier in styrofoam containers packed with dry ice (my workplace receives shipments like this from various parts of NA pretty much every day).
The very cold storage is an issue for the average pharmacy mostly because they’ll need to be able to store the vaccine for days or weeks until it’s given to people.
I don’t see any reason why NHL teams would have difficulty being able to coordinate and administer the Pfizer/Moderna vaccines to their teams.
Per John Shannon:
Source confirms that the NHL is planning the private purchase of a COVID vaccine for all constituents involved in the potential upcoming season.
OOOOOOOFT. I’m assuming that’s States only? I know we’re having a moratorium on vaccine chat, but that is not a good look if sports stars are getting access early….
If there were no advantages to having money very few people would go to the trouble of making it. 😉
Pretty sure you told me a week or so ago that that would never happen when I suggested it was likely. 😉
To be clear – they will be looking to purchase the vaccine when it is available for private purchase and will NOT be jumping the line.
Uh huh.
Suppose the entire league were to purchase the vaccine.
Let’s say 50 per team to keep the math simple.
So 1550 doses times two for a total of 3,100 doses.
Pfizer manufactures that – through licencing in various countries around the world – in about, what, 5 minutes? 3 minutes? of production time? How long before they sell the right to manufacture it to private manufacturers?
The amount it would take to get a $4 B industry back up and running is insignificant compared to the billions of doses needed worldwide.
As I said when I first mentioned this I would expect there to be an outcry that it isn’t fair because we good democrats think everything should be fair as judged by some abstract concept of equality. Good for us.
Doesn’t change my point. The NHL and the NBA and MLB and Hollywood etc. will all be looking for a way to source this product as quickly as possible and I have little doubt that the pharmaceutical industry – long known for its high standards of ethical conduct – will find a way to accommodate them.
For a small additional charge.
I would guess late January/early February at the latest.
From reports, the NHL won’t be jumping the queue so won’t be receiving the product until it is generally available to the public in Canada and the US – until you and I are able to go the lineup at Shoppers Drug Mart (or wherever) for our shot.
It won’t be permitted for private sale until its available for the general public.
Given what I’ve read/heard, in Canada, that won’t be for a number of months
What would be the purpose of purchasing the vaccine once it’s available for the general public?
If they mean Pfizer or Moderna in January or February, then not a chance this will happen in Canada or the US. No team is that tone deaf.
These aren’t test kits with hundreds of free market sources. These early vaccine runs were pre-funded by govts on pure speculation they would even work and the first few months are allocated to the most at risk and the people who look after them.
If any players are interested I’ll be the guy selling Sputnik V out of the back of the Taber Corn truck parked outside Rogers.
One thing I’m noticing abouve Savoie, he’s got a little Gaetan Haas in his game, in that he does end up on his butt more than you’d like to see – going to have to get “stronger on his skates” as he grows and develops!
Savoie picks up an assist.
Out there with Guttman as the forward pair on the 4 on 4 – a rush against is stopped and Savoie outlets to Guttman from the defensive zone setting up a 2-0 – Guttman over to Benning and he gets his first!
No official assist given as of now I don’t think but it should be awarded.
It’s been credited now.
Denver wins 5-1 and Savoie finishes 1+1.
That’s 6+2 in 5 GP for him.
I’m no college hockey expert but isn’t that fairly unusual for a rookie?
He was the first Denver rookie ever to score in his first 4 games as a freshman and is not the first to score in his first 5 games as a freshman.
Storied franchise as well….
I’m used to reading here on the blog from our host that freshmen rarely get PP time or even a lot of 5 on 5 ice time when the season starts so very impressive start for him.
He was on PP1 from the very first PP in game 1.
Good on David Carle for giving him that opportunity.
Yup. And it looks like he earned it from early returns. Nice to have a prospect exceed expectations so dramatically to start a season.
Since you have been watching the games what is his most glaring weakness?
EDIT: And immediately after asking the question I see your post on him having to get stronger on his skates. Thanks again for your updates.
Strength in general I would say.
He actually engages more physically than I expected but he isn’t strong in battle and, as I mentioned and you noted, does end up on his butt easily.
Then again, he is still not even 19 and hasn’t really had a chance to “dedicate to fitness” like we hope the coaching staff will require.
Thanks, OP. As I mentioned the other day it is difficult to get too excited this early on but that boy can shoot the puck. Hard not to see that in the highlights.
And that buys a guy a lot of rope to improve in any other area he needs.
He seems to be able to get off shots that give the goalie trouble from all angles and with little room – he took 3 separate bad angle shots tonight – rang the bar once and almost snuck one in with like a sweeping motion from a bad angle. He seems to be one of those guys that has a knack for creating something out of nothing with his shot.
I can’t remember if it was Wheeler or Pronman who mentioned on The Athletic that Savoie’s shot was the 2nd best in the most recent draft class.
The best belonged to Alexander Holtz.
Found it…it was from a Scott Wheeler article. It’s near the bottom the page. (Also mentions Holloway as 2nd most athletic prospect for the draft. And there’s a blurb about Tullio too.)
Thanks very much for all the updates. Love reading the Cole’s notes since I can’t actually watch.
Nice catch. But yeah, nothing other than up arrows so far for Savoie.
I agree with what LT said the other day though, about almost hoping for some struggles that might force the player to face and address weaknesses.
That said, there’s no way to paint Savoie’s start in a negative light. Very impressive.
I think that was OriginalPouzar that mentioned that potential negative – hope he doesn’t just think “its too easy” and commits to get better and develop the thing he needs to.
Some more Sean Tierney fun times simulations.
https://twitter.com/ChartingHockey/status/1337153859265892360?s=20
He’s had to come up with his own schedule so take this with a pinch of salt. Some interesting placings when you base things off xGF and a lot of 5×5 stats.
Canadian Division ends up being
Toronto
Montreal
Calgary
Edmonton
Ottawa
Vancouver
Winnipeg
That seems to be a function of the schedule being wonky and Ottawa beating the prediction odds from what he’s saying. It’s clearly not factoring in Maximum Brogan.
The Pierre Le Brun reported divisions are bonkers btw. I never noticed this until after I posted this, was completely focused on Ottawa finishing above Vancouver.
So here are the quotes from an interview with ex-NHLer now Södertälje staff member, in some sort of development coach role I think, Niklas Grossman on Evan Bouchard which was published today:
“What I knew about him before? Nothing. Once his name came up(as a possible signing) I started to look him up but as I said I hadn’t heard of him. He’s pretty young so I guess it’s only natural.
He was drafted not long ago and an important prospect in their eyes, which is what I found out(when asking around). I didn’t know at all what type of player he was so it was fun to see when he arrived. You saw some qualities straight away. First impression was that he was an interesting player.”
How would you describe Bouchard as a player?
“A very mature player for his age. He’s already good at the things it takes years to become good at. The way he sees the ice. He reads the game at a level I feel usually takes time to learn, something that normally comes with experience and some players never gain.
He has the sense to almost control the game in his own pace. Those are qualities you rarely find. We saw he had that ability right away even if it took some time for him to adjust to the skating, pace and all that, which Micke(Samuelsson, ex-Red Wing and Södertälje GM) and himself(Bouchard) knew when he signed.
Somewhere we saw that eye for the game and especially with the puck. It was pretty cool to see that he had that automatically.”
“It took him a bit of time to get going, which he said himself. ‘I need to work hard to get into it’ There’s a lot of skating in Hockeyallsvenskan and he looked a little slow to start, which isn’t strange if you haven’t played for ten months. Of course it takes some time before you get into gear.
He’d had a break and that’s why he came here, to play hockey. I think it’s very helpful for him to come here, play a lot of games and be in a good training enviroment.
Obviously it’s great for us yo have a player with such qualities here.”
“The charming thing with him is that he has all these qualities as a player, everyone talks about talent and so on, but his greatest talent imo is his personality, his attitude and his humility.
He’s very professional but at the same time very laid back and humble. He always has a smile on his lips and is often in the gym working extra after games.
You can tell he’s going places and isn’t happy just doing what you tell him to. He does more. It’s awesome to see and I’m getting back at him being a very mature and driven individual who has a clear goal despite being so young. Very few young players have these qualities. He’s already decided where he wants to end up which is cool to see. I think it’s a talent in itself to have the endurance and will power to train hard while recognizing the hard work and time you need to get to the level you want.”
“The other guys(both young and old) learn daily from him things he does with the puck and so on. Then he himself is well aware, which we’ve seen as well, that he has some work to defensively. There he has some work to do if he’s to play in the best league in the world. But he’s very far along with the puck on his stick.”
“It’s especially useful for our young players to see him as it sometimes feels like he’s aware of all ten skaters on the ice all at once.”
He then went on to talk about if he’d worked anything extra with Bouchard specifically(not really, he’s part of the process and structure for the whole team wrt individual training “I give him some pointers here and there”).
And also some talk of the plusses and minuses of bringing in the NHL loans into the league but not much more on Bouchard specifically.
Grossman has a pretty odd way to express himself, at least in this interview, so not overly easy to translate properly but I hope I was able to convey the gist of it. If I’d had more time I would have re-written some quotes more but it’ll have to do. If something’s unclear just ask and I’ll try to clarify later.
Love the bolded in the last quote btw.
This is great stuff. Thank you for your service again SP.
That’s a pretty glowing report, my main takeaways are that he’s working on the things he’s not good at, doing extra in the gym etc. The bolded part you mention about the awareness of where everyone is on the ice is absolute music.
Yup, this is amazing intel – we are blessed in this community.
All Bouchard has done is excell and exceed expectations at every level since drafted. He’s right on schedule and I anticipate that, after a small adjustment period, he will start to excel at the NHL level as well.
The question isn’t really if he’ll play in the NHL this season but when will he get that call to the lineup? Probably not opening night if everyone is healthy but it may not be long. If he was 4RD coming in to camp on last year’s depth chart, he’d be in the opening night lineup.
Thank you so much for passing this on to us all!
Savoie take the puck at the top of the circles, fully covered by a d-man, is able to take him wide and shovel a nifty quick shot on net from the bottom of the circles – it was stopped but the tender looked behind him.
That shot, really, that release – seems to be able to get difficult shots on net out of nothing.
Savoie with a bang early in the 2nd period and then finishes up the shift with a dangerous shot on net. He is FLYING this afternoon.
Announcers are raving about him but mention that they think he’s playing banged up – have seen him with “some medical stuff” – whatever that means.
He did take that bang to the knee in, I believe, the 2nd game.
The Savoie first period goal:
https://twitter.com/HeresYourReplay/status/1337156820184522753
Savoie with yet another goal – this one at 5 on 5 near the end of the first as he buries a rebound off a beautiful rush passing play by Denver!
Wow, Denver win the PP faceoff to the right point, it goes over to Savoie on the left point and he makes a wonderful pass to the back-door for a big high-danger chance – just a splendid play that shows he can do more than just shoot the puck.
He then fans on a cycle pass below the net and there is a clear.
Then with some good battle work on the boards later in the PP.
Just the one plus play from the PP but Savoie is looking damn good early.
Savoie get the puck off the half-wall near the circles off a turnover (after ANOTHER 1st line cycle shift), spins and fires a perfect cross-ice pass the d-man coming in from the point for a high danger chance – no goal though.
Savoie takes the puck on the offensive half boards just off the corner and puts a bad-angle shot off the point – this kid can shoot the busicuit.
2 straight shifts of zone time for the Savoie line and he looks more involved and tenacious at 5 on 5 that h has early in the other games (where he get better as the games went on) – a slick cycle pass, a tenacious forecheck below the goal line.
Good start.
Savoie lining up at 1LW again:
https://twitter.com/DU_Hockey/status/1337125956914278402/photo/1
Game starts in about 10 min.
Nygard with another goal today (I believe his fourth straight game with a goal) and Lennstrom with an assist (coming off a 1G/1A performance) – these guys are rolling now and should be heading to Canada soon.
The expanded roster/taxi squad likely keeps Nygard “in the NHL” and maybe Lenny as well as he’s probably 9D heading in to camp.
I guess those guys could spend Christmas with their families, then head to Edmonton and get their quarantine done in time for camp.
If camps are starting on January 3, is that enough time?
There immediate families may be coming with them, wouldn’t they? I mean, they are planning to be gone for months.
My bad, I thought camps (rather than the season) were starting on Jan 13th.
So no, there definitely isn’t enough time to get them to NA and quarantined before Jan 3rd.
And I was thinking parents and stuff. Significant others and kids are probably coming with, but probably not guaranteed depending on availability of schooling and so on.
Thoughts on the Canadian Division.
https://torontosun.com/sports/hockey/nhl/simmons-hello-all-canadian-division-of-nhl-goodbye-netflix
An update on selling ads on helmets and a few other items from Eliotte Friedman.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/nhl-investigating-possibility-selling-ads-players-helmets/?template=basic
No talk of the U20 cuts today in Red Deer? Notable players include Shane Wright, Hendrix Lapierre, Tyson Foerster. I think Holloway is a lock at this point to make the team.
I think Holloway has been a lock since the beginning – I thought he was a bubble guy until I started hearing the likes of Button calling him a lock. After the words from the coach last night, I think he is a legit lock. Will be very curious to see how he’s deployed as the tournament rolls on.
Per Gazzola:
Add Connor McDavid, Kyle Turris and Dylan Wells to the group taking part in voluntary workouts in
@defmn
Re: Vancouver
Ferland is highly likely to be on LTIR.
Baertshi assigned to AHL (he may not report as there is an opt out in the new MOU)
Yeah, there are a few like that around the league but are not on it at the moment.
Yeah him just walking away from 2.4 mil is a pipe dream
$3.35M, no?
But no, he’s not walking away.
With a normal 23 man roster limit, I would think that Bouchard starts the season off the active roster with Lagesson as 7D (and two extra forwards).
Now that there will be a 27 player expanded roster (likely), Buchard, as 4RD will assuredly be on the active roster. He is likely out of the lineup on opening night if everyone is healthy but will play many NHL games once injuries come.
The additional benefit to the expanded roster is the potential for some “load management” with a guy like Larsson to give him a night off here and there and insert Bouchard – in particular if there are lots of 3 games/4 nights type scenarios.
I thought the rosters were expanded to 26 players plus a 4 man taxi squad for a total of 30 players . Is that not correct ?
This is correct.
Yes, I made a drafting nit but it doesn’t change the premise I don’t think.
Lowetide, a bit off the current thread but just a memory jog for me. I am old enough to remember comments made regarding Brett Hall, and i seem to remember him being described as not being engaged in the play without the puck, you don’t notice him during the game but then he scores and lastly, that he has a deadly shot. Reminds me of the early reports I’ve read about Carter Savoy. Your thoughts?
I think most pure shooters can be accused of it at an early age, but some overcome that issue while others score so often no one complains. No idea about Savoie, sometimes the light turns on as players mature. I think the last Oilers forward who arrived fully formed at 20 was Jari Kurri, so they’re rare.
Just a peak at where the league is at today. I figure signings and trade talk will start to heat up once the final details are worked out between the PA and the league. All info from CapFriendly and there are undoubtedly guys that will move in both directions from the NHL roster and AHL roster during TC but I doubt those moves affect the cap significantly in most cases.
Where it says a team is set I mean they will use internal means to fill out the roster.
This is just a snapshot, of course, but I found it convenient to be able to look at all the teams with LTIR and unsigned RFA’s taken into account.
Arizona – 22 players signed. No RFA’s. $2,770,284 over cap with a LTIR of $5,275,000 (Hossa). Probably over what the owner wants to spend so no acquisition likely.
Tampa Bay – 19 players signed. Two RFA’s to sign (Cirelli, Cernak). $1,904,166 over cap with no LTIR as of today. They have to move somebody; maybe more than one.
Vancouver – 23 players signed. No RFA’s. $1,501,878 over the cap with no LTIR as of today. Without a trade they cannot acquire.
St. Louis – 21 players signed. One RFA to sign (Dunn). $1,175,515 over the cap with $13,250,000 in LTIR (Tarasenko & Steen). They moved Allen for cap space so doubtful they are looking to add. I think both Tarasenko & Steen are expected back at some point this season.
Toronto – 23 players signed. No RFA’s to sign. $1,049,325 over the cap with no LTIR as of today. Toronto is always in the trade market but nobody is coming in without somebody leaving.
Washington – 21 players signed. No RFA’s to sign. $1,024,877 over the cap with no LTIR as of today. They need to shed somebody.
Vegas – 21 players signed. No RFA’s to sign. $974,104 over the cap with no LTIR. They need to move somebody.
Anaheim – 22 players signed. No RFA’s to sign. $929,999 over the cap with $6,875,00 in LTIR (Kesler). They could add but I doubt they do since they are not known for deep pockets and not expected to be contenders this year.
Winnipeg – 22 players signed. One RFA to sign (Roslovic). $697,856 over the cap with $5,291,667 in LTIR (Little). They could add if they get the right value deal from a UFA but Chevy is pretty tight with the money so I doubt he is looking over $2 M.
Edmonton – 23 players signed. One RFA to sign (Bear). $242,491 over the cap with nobody on LTIR at the moment but $4,167,000 (Klefbom) going on once the season starts. If Bear comes in at $1.4 M Holland has wiggle room to add.
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Dallas – 23 players signed. No RFA’s to sign. $257,969 under the cap with nobody on LTIR at the moment. They are probably set.
Montreal – 21 players signed. One RFA to sign (Hudon). $383,691 under the cap with nobody on LTIR at the moment. They are probably set.
Carolina – 22 players signed. No RFA’s to sign. $932,261 under the cap with nobody on LTIR at the moment. They are probably set.
Calgary – 21 players signed. One RFA to sign (Kylington). $1,010,834 under the cap with nobody on LTIR at the moment. They are probably set.
Pittsburgh – 23 players signed. No RFA’s to sign. $1,318,158 under the cap with $1,000,000 on LTIR (Aston-Reese). I wouldn’t be surprised if Rutherford is still looking for a forward.
Colorado – 20 players signed. One RFA to sign (Kamanev). $1,823,614 under the cap with nobody on LTIR at the moment. They are probably set.
Philadelphia – 20 players signed. No RFA’s to sign. $2,261,148 under the cap with $1,574,125 on LTIR (Patrick, Morin). They are probably shopping for forwards.
San Jose – 23 players signed. No RFA’s to sign. $2,353,333 under the cap with nobody on LTIR at the moment. Not expected to compete this year Wilson may be done or he might be looking for a dman.
Minnesota – 22 players signed. No RFA’s to sign. $2,700,579 under the cap with nobody on LTIR. I think Guerin is set for this season. I think he is looking down the road rather than this year.
Boston – 21 players signed. No RFA’s to sign. $2,982,686 under the cap with $14,041,667 on LTIR (Pastrnak, Marchand, Miller). No idea how soon they will be ready to play but I would think they will all be ready at some point this season. Chara still sitting there unsigned. I think Boston may be set.
Buffalo – 21 players signed. One RFA to sign (Mittelstadt). $3,495,833 under the cap with nobody on LTIR at the moment. I think they are probably set.
NYI – 20 players signed. One expensive RFA to sign in Barzal. $3,905,833 under the cap with a very convenient recently announced LTIR of $6,000,000 (Boychuk) available. Probably set but has money for one more guy.
NYR – 23 players signed. No RFA’s to sign. $4,829,367 under the cap with nobody on LTIR at the moment. Has to be the weirdest structure in the league with $12,994,444 in cap in buyouts and something I have never seen before – $3,950,000 in Bonus Cushion Penalty potential. I think Gorton is done for this year.
Chicago – 20 players signed. One RFA to sign (Strome). $5,213,687 under the cap with $10,775,000 in LTIR (Seabrook, Shaw) who I think are both expected back at some point. Bowman could easily be looking for help up front or in goal.
Florida – 19 players signed. One RFA to sign (Saarela). $8,313,712 under the cap with nobody on LTIR at the moment. Zito could offer more than one year deals if he can find a guy he wants but I am not convinced this is the year he will want to do that. Will bargain hunt for forwards imo.
Columbus – 22 players signed. One expensive RFA to sign (Dubois). $9,225,875 under the cap with nobody on LTIR at this time. I think Kekalainen would like to get his 1st line centre signed long term this off season. No idea exactly what that is going to cost but the majority of his cap space will disappear when it happens and he is probably set for the season at that point.
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Detroit – 22 players signed. One RFA (Timashov) to sign. $9,538,611 under the cap is a lot of walking around money when added to the $6,083,333 on LTIR (Zetterburg). I think Yzerman’s problem is finding good players that want to sign for what looks like either a losing season or a bit of a long rebuild. I don’t think he is looking to spend on UFA’s so much as to “help out” his former team in Tampa in any way he can.
Ottawa – 22 players signed. No RFA’s to sign. $12,502, 501 under the cap with LTIR of $4,875,000 (Gaborik) still on the books. That is some serious buying power in this market but Melnyk is not known for spending his money foolishly and Dorion has done an amazing job of assembling high end prospects that are close to prime time. I wouldn’t be surprised if he bites on another forward but only if the right one comes loose from a team that needs to shed. I don’t think he thinks this is their year so why rock the boat.
Nashville – 19 players signed. One RFA (Kunin) to sign. $12,942,190 under the cap. Nobody on LTIR at the moment. The problem for Poile imo is that the best forward left on the UFA market is the guy he let go to market in Granlund when it didn’t work out. I think a ‘distress sale’ trade is what he is waiting for from one of the teams over the cap. Maybe two of the teams over the cap. I doubt ownership wants to spend to the cap this season but who knows if the deal is too good to say no to.
Los Angeles – 19 players signed. No RFA’s to sign. Nobody on LTIR at the moment. Rebuilding year in LA. I think he wants to give his kids looks but like the other four teams loaded with cap space I am sure he is taking calls from GM’s looking for a way out of their cap problems.
New Jersey – 16 players signed. Two RFA’s to sign (Blackwood, Bratt). $17,195,001 under the cap with no LTIR at the moment. Fitzgerald must be sitting there licking his chops just waiting for the phone to ring.
Excellent summary, well done. A note on Florida – they lost $29M last year and are currently carrying a $165M debt load. They aren’t spending a penny more than they have to this year.
Nashville lost $13M last year and likely won’t be spending to the cap any time soon. That leaves very few options for UFA’s and teams in cap trouble.
Didn’t know things were that bad in Florida. It seems to me that a lot of their revenue comes from concerts in their arena which are not happening these days so that only makes it worse. Nashville lines up pretty much with what I thought.
More players than seats at the moment. I wonder if that is pushing the ‘expanded roster’ idea as much as the logistics of call ups in the current situation. I just can’t see a lot of owners wanting to effectively increase the cap when they are all going to be playing in empty arenas.
LA (+$45M), Detroit (+$31M) and NJ (+$4.1M) were all profitable last year and are all rebuilding. They are well positioned to scoop up picks & prospects for cap dumps around the league.
Thanks for this.
Denver with another afternoon game today, 2:30 mountain. These afternoon games during the week are killing me…..
Its funny – With a normal 23 man roster, I think I have Nygard as 15F and off the roster but, yet, I always come back to the goal differential with McDavid (6-2 and, I believe, 6-1 when you remove Drai from the equation).
The Kahun signing essentially took that option off the table for opening night (not that it was a realistic option but I did (and still do) wonder if the McDavid/Nygard duo is something to explore.
The 2008 Oilers were turning wingers in to centers.
The 2020 Oilers are turning centers in to wingers.
I like the odds of the latter better!
Which centers are the Oilers turning into wingers considering Nuge was a winger last season?
Turris possibly, Haas maybe if his faceoffs don’t improve. I think OP made a good point there.
And Nuge played Centre up until the end of 2019 when he was put on Draisaitl’s wing so he was a 2020 conversion. Of course Draisaitl went the other way. 😉
Last year these current Oiler players had 300+ faceoffs
Nuge
McDavid
Draisaitl
Haas
Turris
Also players who have had 300+ faceoffs in past years
Khaira
Ennis
If these 7 players are all playing in the same game (which is reasonable) than 3 would be players who were centres in the past who are now playing wing in 2020.
Do you figure this is the year the Canucks try turning Pettersson and Gaudette into centers? Or too soon?
Rumour has it Brogan Rafferty was playing centre for his flag football team all summer.
Oof. More competition for Pettersson and Gaudette in the middle.
At least it improves the Canucks chances of having the best 3C in the Canadian division.
Having two centres on the first line is a nice problem to have.
Can Kassian play centre?
Nuge sure can.
What are you talking about now?
The Oilers look to have McDavid and Nuge, two career centers, on their first line. That line will likely also include Kassian. It is a nice problem.
The Canucks have JT Miller and a guy who took 141 face-offs this past season. The guy who took 141 face-offs also has the 3rd worst FO% in the league over his 2 year career. Seems that Adam Gaudette is one of the 2 NHLers with a worse FO% than the 141 face-off guy.
You can’t make this stuff up.
Sounds like Brogan Rafferty can’t arrive soon enough.
That photo above got me thinking.
Does anyone remember Hemsky flying down the right wing side driving in toward the net and firing a hard wrister short side, or did he always pull it to the backhand and try and tuck it in?
When we breakdown the lines according to 5v5 Pts/60, I think we should be looking a bit higher than whether they are 1st Line level or 2nd line level. We should be looking at whether they are winning 1st line level, winning 2nd line level, etc.
That means top 48 for Line 1, top 144 for line 2, top 240 for line 3, and top 336 for line 4.
Last year, of players with 330 minutes or more at 5v5, this is how the Oilers stack.
1st Line, Top 48
#3, Yamamoto @ 3.16 pts/60 at 5v5
#9, Draisaitl @ 2.89
#10, McDavid @ 2.84
2nd Line, Top 144
#36, Kahun @ 2.43
#57, Nugent-Hopkins @ 2.23
#59, Kassian @ 2.20
3rd Line, Top 240
#117, Ennis @ 1.90
#179, Turris @ 1.64
#240-ish?, Puljujarvi @ 1.45? (I used his rookie season, hopefully, that’s his floor this year)
4th Line, Top 336
#283, Nygard @ 1.27
#297, Archibald @ 1.20
#345, Neal @ 0.94
#358, Chiasson @ 0.87
#370, Haas @ 0.81
#373, Khaira @ 0.80
I feel like they’re in pretty good shape at forward.
Neal is the only one to fall out of the top half of his line. He needs to score at about 1.08 to outscore half the NHL. I think he might surprise us if he ends up in the top 9 as even Ennis-Turris-Neal gives him a pretty good chance to score. RW is very interesting. We’ll be waiting to see if Kassian falls, and Puljujarvi moves up. ONLY 34 DAYS TO THE START!!!!!
Most everyone is saying that this division is super close (besides Ottawa). I don’t know, I think Edmonton, if healthy, could emerge as a clear leader. I think we’ve established that the Oilers forward group is among the best in the league, but they also have as much offense from the blueline as anyone in the division too. Not to mention Bouchard waiting in the wings.
2019-20 5v5 scoring:
Nurse: 26 *
Barrie: 25 *
Chabot: 25
Hughes: 24
Weber: 21
Edler: 21
Petry: 21
Muzzin: 20
Bear: 19 *
Top-11 defensemen (5v5) over the past 3 years:
Carlson: 100
Josi: 99
Burns: 95
Karlsson: 83
Rielly: 83
Barrie: 78 *
Hedman: 77
Nurse: 77 *
Giordano: 76
Chabot: 75
Pietrangelo: 75
I don’t think offense is going to be a problem for this group. Defense? That remains to be seen.
Yup, that’s a lot of 5v5 points from the back end. I’m really looking forward to this year’s team and to the Canadian division.
Sorting out the remaining issues before the season starts.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/five-pressing-issues-nhl-nhlpa-resolve-ahead-new-season/sn-amp/?__twitter_impression=true
LT: “Perfect? No. Progress? I believe so.”
Hear, hear.
Things are rarely perfect. Oiler forwards are much improved and represent real quality.
Hemsky. What a beauty
Staples gushing about our new drafts in the EJ today
Keeping finding stop gaps Kenny – wingers are on-route!!
I suspect “Wingers” was a major discussion topic in McDavid’s exit interview. Holland has obliged.
LT and others have discussed running Nygard with McDavid and the sample numbers are good. The player that surprised me on the list a little was Patrick Russel. If only the shot angle turned those posts into twine. A run of Truly Bad Luck (TBL), TBL/60 = 100.
Just for fun I decided to do a projection based on last year’s G/60 numbers with TOI adjusted to the new roster. Because of the quality of players added pretty much everyone gets a slight cut in TOI. I also left Puljujarvi off as I wanted to avoid making up numbers where there is no established level, and included Archibald instead. Obviously not everyone is going to play to the level they did last year (Yamamoto likely), but then others are going to get opportunities with the world’s #1 and #2 offensive centers that they haven’t before (Kahun, Nuge, Barrie), so hopefully it all evens out.
Ice time is allocated based on 51.5 even strength + 5.00 PP + 5.00 PK per game. Edmonton averaged 61.56 minutes per game last year, so that should be close.
EVEN STRENGTH
Player TOI/GP G/60 Goals
Kailer Yamamoto 15.50 x 1.22 = 18
Leon Draisaitl 17.00 x 1.29 = 20
Connor McDavid 17.00 x 1.22 = 19
Dominik Kahun 15.00 x 0.97 = 14
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 15.00 x 0.93 = 13
Zack Kassian 15.00 x 1.01 = 14
Tyler Ennis 12.00 x 0.76 = 9
Kyle Turris 12.00 x 0.55 = 6
Josh Archibald 12.00 x 0.9 = 10
Tyson Barrie 18.00 x 0.18 = 3
Darnell Nurse 19.00 x 0.21 = 4
James Neal 8.00 x 0.58 = 4
Alex Chiasson 8.00 x 0.43 = 3
Ethan Bear 18.00 x 0.18 = 3
Caleb Jones 17.00 x 0.4 = 6
Gaetan Haas 8.00 x 0.45 = 3
Kris Russell 15.00 x 0 = 0
Adam Larsson 16.00 x 0.07 = 1
151 total goals at ES
POWERPLAY
Player TOI/GP G/60 Goals
Kailer Yamamoto 2.00 x 2.51 = 5
Leon Draisaitl 4.00 x 3.53 = 13
Connor McDavid 4.00 x 2.65 = 10
Dominik Kahun 1.00 x 1.01 = 1
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 3.00 x 1.77 = 5
Zack Kassian 0.00 x 0 = 0
Tyler Ennis 1.00 x 1.99 = 2
Kyle Turris 1.00 x 0.83 = 1
Josh Archibald 0.00 x 0 = 0
Tyson Barrie 3.00 x 0.32 = 1
Darnell Nurse 0.00 x 0 = 0
James Neal 2.00 x 4.55 = 8
Alex Chiasson 2.00 x 2.51 = 5
Ethan Bear 1.00 x 1.13 = 1
Caleb Jones 1.00 x 0.8 = 1
Gaetan Haas 0.00 x 0 = 0
Kris Russell 0.00 x 0 = 0
Adam Larsson 0.00 x 0 = 0
52 total goals on the power play
I made two adjustments to the PP list: I dropped Yamamoto’s G/60 by 50% to be more realistic, and I put 0.8 G/60 in for Jones (double his ES rate), who had zero goals on the PP last year. Bottom line is that this PP is going to be great again, top-3 in the league easily. Fifty-two goals in 56 games seems overly optimistic, but a 2-year look at McDavid and Draisaitl’s PP scoring rates don’t change much (Draisaitl would still get 13 goals, McDavid 9), and while Neal is unlikely to repeat his 4.55, his established ability is between 2.90-3.50, so this isn’t far off. A 2.90 rate would result in 5 goals and a 3.50 rate in 7 goals, so 8 isn’t ridiculous. Nuge’s G/60 was the lowest in 4 years, so that could actually come up a bit.
PENALTY KILL /60
Player TOI/GP G/60 Goals
Kailer Yamamoto 0.00 x 0 = 0
Leon Draisaitl 0.00 x 0 = 0
Connor McDavid 0.00 x 0 = 0
Dominik Kahun 0.00 x 0 = 0
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 2.00 x 0 = 0
Zack Kassian 0.00 x 0 = 0
Tyler Ennis 0.00 x 0 = 0
Kyle Turris 2.00 x 0 = 0
Josh Archibald 3.00 x 0.85 = 2
Tyson Barrie 0.00 x 0 = 0
Darnell Nurse 2.00 x 0 = 0
James Neal 0.00 x 0 = 0
Alex Chiasson 1.00 x 0 = 0
Ethan Bear 2.00 x 0 = 0
Caleb Jones 0.00 x 0 = 0
Gaetan Haas 2.00 x 0 = 0
Kris Russell 3.00 x 0 = 0
Adam Larsson 3.00 x 0 = 0
2 total goals on the penalty kill
That’s 205 total goals based on established ability, or 3.67 per game. That’s likely league-leading offense – the top teams last year were Tampa (3.47), Washington (3.42), Toronto (3.39), Colorado (3.37) and Rangers (3.33).
In working through this I found it difficult to apportion the PK minutes, this team has lost its top-2 PK minute munchers, Klefbom and Sheahan. I don’t see any way to leave Archibald off the roster unless a bunch of other bottom six types suddenly learn how to PK. GA is going to rise in this area – I’ll be happy if the Oilers PK is league-average next year.
Is there a center out there who has some PK bona-fides who can outscore at evens? Haula? Soderberg? Or someone on a team desperate to shed cap?
In the 30 regular season games since December 31st, 2019, when Tippett split McDavid and Draisaitl, the Oilers scored 3.53 G/GP. Only the Flyers (3.54) scored more down the home stretch. That makes 3.67 seem low when you consider the offensive additions Holland has made recently.
Good stuff Armchair, I like it.