Picking a favourite Connor McDavid goal from last night would be difficult. The goal with half a tick on the clock before the end of the period was fantastic, but the super nova nuclear snipe working against Edler was breathtaking. What. a. player.
THE ATHLETIC!
I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.
New Lowetide: First impressions of Oilers after opener against the Canucks
Lowetide:Seattle Kraken expansion mock draft 5.0: Who could the Oilers lose?
Lowetide: Why McDavid and Nuge together could be key to Oilers’ playoff success
OILERS IN MONTH NO. 1
Oilers in October 2015: 0-2-0, goal differential -4
Oilers in October 2016: 2-0-0, goal differential +5
Oilers in October 2017: 1-1-0, goal differential +2
Oilers in October 2018: 0-2-0, goal differential -6
Oilers in October 2019: 2-0-0, goal differential +2
Oilers in Month 1 2021: 1-1-0, goal differential +1
Oilers are clear of the 2015 and 2018 teams, and tied with the 2017 club. The two games played so far offer such dissimilar clues. Edmonton won the shot share and had the more dangerous chances on Thursday night. The club also won the five on five goal share, 3-2.
WHAT TO EXPECT FROM MONTH NO. 1
Athome to: Vancouver, Vancouver (Expected: 1-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
At home to: Montreal, Montreal (Expected: 1-1-0)
On the road to: Toronto, Toronto, Winnipeg, Winnipeg (Expected 1-2-1)
At home to: Toronto, Toronto, Ottawa (Expected 2-1-0)
Overall expected result: 5-5-1, 11 points in 11 games
Current results: 1-1-0, 2 points after 2 games
This edition of the Oilers has just one pairing intact from a year ago, so it might take a couple of weeks to get things optimal. The team is currently on track with the predicted results.
LINES FROM LAST NIGHT
Nuge-McDavid-Kassian played 9:28 at five on five, 10-6 shots, no goals, 5-2 HDSC and 15-6 Corsi for five on five. This trio didn’t score but won the possession battle and had several 10-bell chances. 20 shots in total for these three men, all five goals between McDavid (3) and Nuge (2). The five on five goals (two) on-ice for McDavid came with Draisaitl (2), Nuge (1), Yamamoto (1).
Kahun-Draisaitl-Yamamoto played 8:07, and got fed! Shots 3-7, no goals, 0-2 HDSC and 5-16 Corsi for (all at five on five). Draisaitl played just over 7 minutes against the Horvat line (9-8 shots), he was 4-1 the rest of the way. At some point, Tippett ran four men for a short period (faceoff at the end of the period on the 97 goal=97, 29, 56; five minutes to go in the second, Nuge to 97 backdoor play, 29 also got an assist) of line shuffling and found two five on five goals. Impressive all around.
Archibald-Turris-Puljujarvi played 5:34, 4-3 shots, 0-1 goals (dammit!), 1-3 HDSC and 6-9 Corsi. Puljujarvi had a great night, he’s really showing up in good spots. Seven shots, takeaway, skated miles, got in the way, it’s wonderful! People are talking new attitude, forgetting he was a teenager last time we saw him and that he had hip issues as well. I love him on the forecheck, he’s a difficult player to avoid for opponents (wingspan and speed). The goal against for this line (Motte) involved mostly good work, JP engaged the winger, Canucks got the puck, sent it to the blue line and Motte got position on Tyson Barrie. No grievous errors, Vancouver made a couple of good plays. This line is 0-2 five on five goal differential, but I’d keep with them. A goal is coming.
Shore-Khaira-Chiasson played 2:51, 0-2 shots, 0-1 goals (dammit again!) and 0-1 HDSC. 1-8 Corsi for five on five. The goal against wasn’t much (again) Schmidt from the point but Koskinen was blocked by Sutter (who seems healthy again) and Jones trying to move him. This line isn’t working.
LAST NIGHT’S PAIRINGS, GOALIE
Nurse-Bear played 14:10, going 17-11 shots, 3-0 goals, 9-2 HDSC and 23-14 Corsi for five on five. Outstanding game by the top pair. Spent 11:22 with 97, 4:28 with 29 and there was overlap.
Koekkoek-Barrie played 8:37, going 6-8 shots, 0-1 goals, 1-2 HDSC and 9-17 Corsi for on the night. Koekkoek blocked five shots, Barrie picked up an assist and had four shots. This pairing is coming along nicely.
Jones-Larsson played 8:36, going 5-5 shots, 0-1 goals, 1-4 HDSC, 6-16 Corsi for five on five. They were on for the Schmidt goal, Jones couldn’t move Sutter. I thought this pairing played much better, they played mostly with the third and fourth lines and against the third and fourth Canucks lines.
Mikko Koskinen was rock solid, 33 of 35, .943. He played well, although he was also fine in the first game.
At five on five after two games, Edmonton’s shot share is 50 percent (61-61).
Goal share five on five (6-7) is minus 1.
Centers are enjoying different results, and of course not all stats are while these men play center. The current five on five goal differentials: Draisaitl 5-1; McDavid 3-2; Turris 0-2; Khaira 0-2. Room to grow in the bottom six.
Center five on five minutes: McDavid 16:49; Draisaitl 14:13; Turris 10:04; Khaira 5:42.
Pairings five on five goal differentials: Nurse and Bear 5-1; Jones and Larsson 1-4; Koekkoek-Barrie 0-2.
Defensive five on five minutes: Nurse 19:59; Bear 19:11; Jones 13:40, Larsson 13:35; Barrie 13:05; Koekkoek 12:46.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we kick into weekend mode. Steve Lansky from Inside the Truck podcast will talk about the Oilers start to the season and about the broadcasting tweaks we’ve seen at the start of the year. Matthew Iwanyk will drop by, he was at Rogers last night, I’ll ask if McDavid is in fact faster this year. We’ll also talk NFL weekend. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
Too bad that Garret Sparks already went down to Florida after being released by the Flames. He’d be a decent pickup. Better than Rodrigue and Skinner at least.
Forsberg reclaimed and now Smith out long term. I was wondering how long our present moment of joy would last… till the Hockey Gords started terrorizing us again.
We hoped for the best… but it turned out like always.
Fortunate for the Oilers that this season the NHL is split up into 4 separate original 6 style divisions. No need to worry about any other teams except the ones in the division; the Flames, the Canucks, the Jets, The Leafs, The Canadiens and the Senators in that order.
OriginalPouzar
January 15, 2021 9:12 pm
Since Nuge became a full-time winger on January 1, 2020, he is 3rd in the NHL in 5 on 5 points (one point behind Drai and Kucherov). Of note, Yamamoto is tied for 4th, 2 points behind
Nuge is 4th in the NHL in overall points in that time (Drai has a 9 point lead over 2nd place……).
Most that post in the name of engaging in conversation and discussion would understand the use of the date when the player changed from a center to a winger and acknowledge that over 30 games is no longer a nominal sample size but, of course, but you do you and post to incite.
A sample size of just one post trying to equate 2 games to 30 in sample size would indicate you are either bad at trolling or bad at stats. The larger sample size of any quantity of your posts would lead most to conclude both those hypothesis are likely true.
It’s free! It’s fun! Prizes! Fame! Leave angry messages about the Toronto Maple Leafs!
Last edited 3 years ago by hunter1909
Kinger_Oil.redux
January 15, 2021 7:30 pm
– Man poor Koski: the org hasn’t ever played him properly: disrespect him and give the 1st playoff game to Smith. Try in off-season to drop crazy town money for Mark who is no better. Keep playing Smith when he was sh$t, and never giving Koski the support or starts that starting goalies get in the NHL
– All they do is tell Koski : “your not a trustworthy starter” Now he’s going to get over played like he was 2 years ago, fullfilling the organizations view of him.
– I attribute this mostly to the fact that he isn’t this management or coachings guy: happens all the time in professional sport.
– Koski is a good legit NHL starting goalie, no better or worse than the team in front of him over a season. Not a stud: He didn’t lose the first game, nor did he win the 2nd. The team played better and he won. Thats goaltending non-elite, non-suck division that virtually all starters occupy in today’s NHL
– In the absence of a back-up who can play games in relief, but doesn’t get better treatment or more rope that him, its not going to end well for Koski (or the Oilers)
– Perhaps despite the poor job the organization has done, it will work out, as they surely can’t find a goalie they view as “better” than Koski this season.
– Did you read my posts? I get your sore about Koski. I shouldn’t get baited into conversing with you on Koski, or goalies in general: you have no clue… That’s ok. I like a lot of your other posts
‘- So abusive you were with blinders about koski. Like every game 10 posts about how he’s not an NHL goalie. No analysis. Just faulty logic. Nonesense about his weak glove and stuff. The revision to say he got way better because he he worked on his weaknesses. No understanding still about the relationship between goalie and team. The contract he signed with the old regime is part of my thesis for why he doesn’t get respect. Not only don’t you get the role of goalies you don’t get my post. That’s ok you have other good attributes for this blog and are a solid contributor.
‘- Nah thats just a narrative: a by-product of guys in easy positions teeing it up. Ever since I was in peewee, it was the same story: goalie is weak top shelf. Of course that’s the hardest part of the net for a goalie to protect. And unobstructed shooters will generally shoot high glove side. I never got why this wasn’t understood. Now with less guys teeing it up, his glove is fine. You don’t develop in an off season better motor skills to improve glove in your 30s. I love how that became the rationalization for why he’s better: yeah he worked on it.
‘- Here’s what happened: he had a year of experience, would have known how to better prepare, and was more familiar with his opponents tendancies, and the requirements of him. Most goalies in their 2nd season, in any league, get better the next year, all else being equal. He got to play more games in front of a better D, comprised of more legit D. The team was also a lot better, and he didnt play like 35 games in a row or whatever it was at the end of that first season. All of these things were predictable. HIs technique improvement in off-season is far down the list of reasons why he went from ‘not an NHL goalie” to a NHL starting goalie.
A vast over-exaggeration and I never once complained specifically about “his glove hand” – not once, ever. I’ve always thought the specific complaints about “on his knees beat high” and “terrible glove hand” were over-stated. So, please, don’t tell me I know nothing when you put things on me that I never typed, said or opined. Geez.
Sunnyboy
January 15, 2021 7:22 pm
Oooops, 5-3
N64
January 15, 2021 7:21 pm
OP: Rodrigue is in Austria so that’s not really an option
At least a week for games in Alberta and another week on the road, but for now he is the option
Well, there are no flights from Vienna to YYC tomorrow but there are on Sunday – if he can get the test and the rest results he needs before then to even get on the plane under the new Canadian government rules for flying in to Canada.
Daryl, time to pull that Ledger Nano out of your pocket, and send a few B’s over to Russia. And maybe Konovalev can be on a plane in the morning. Gary and Vlad wouldn’t know.
WTF, Smith.
Last edited 3 years ago by godot10
GordieHoweHatTrick
January 15, 2021 7:03 pm
KH is in a bit of a pickle
it will be interesting to see if he doubles
down on the risk of MK getting injured and we have a sub AHL goalie with no back up OR
he makes a trade. There aren’t a lot of options that would fit the oilers current cap space. The trade(s) would therefore likely cost an asset and probably more valuable than losing Forsberg or Lags on waivers.
The KHL has refused to sign a transfer (or similar) agreement with the NHL, I don’t think they are going to be changing their tune in the immediate future.
Harpers Hair
January 15, 2021 6:12 pm
What is the over/under at opponents running Koskinen?
On a one to ten scale of ignorant statements that is off the charts. It shows a complete disregard for basic decency a complete lack of humanity. You should be real proud of yourself as this is a new low even for you!
Totally. This explains why in the playoffs teams take runs at eachothers goalies constantly until both teams have no choice but to pull some fans out of the crowd to play in net. I mean, why wouldn’t they?
I bet this has never happened before where a team has played against another team where their backup was injured.
Once teams start taking runs against Koskinen I bet it’s going to revolutionize the game. Teams will be taking note and taking runs at all other teams to get to their #3 goalie.
Just like teams are going to take runs at Boeser just because he has an injury history and will likely re-injure and they know Quinn Hughes will snap all of his sticks and take as many penalties as possible to stick up for him.
So you have just stated that playing more to the side of a rookie D is the same as more running a goalie in hopes that you can injure him. Ie. Both are morally equivalent strategies. Wow, you are a seriously depraved troll.
I guess if he flys into Calgary and goes through the YYC pilot project. He’d still need to stay in Alberta for two weeks and the Oilers would be in Winnipeg for games on the 24th and 26th.
The #Oilers have placed goaltender Mike Smith on Long Term Injured Reserve & have reassigned Olivier Rodrigue (currently in the Austrian National League) to the club’s taxi squad, pending quarantine protocols.
OriginalPouzar
January 15, 2021 5:46 pm
Lots and lots of talk about the 4th line and it getting caved and how it needs to be fixed.
Totally fair, 100%, that’s true.
At the same time, lets not forget that the Oilers had 3 regulars (well if you include Haas as a regular) not available last night for forwards.
They got caved last night (and in game 1) but the 4th line had real NHL players and there were real NHL players such as Nygard waiting to get in and that was with 3 NHL players out with injury/illness
That fourth line could easily be Nygard/Ennis/Haas/Neal in the future.
Given Waddell gave Old Dutch a courtesy call as a head’s up and Kenny passed, I’d wager he’s got a plan in mind. Or, hope so.
Woogie63
January 15, 2021 5:17 pm
What is David Ayres upto???
BornInAGretzkyJersey
January 15, 2021 5:13 pm
Richard Bachman looks to be available.
Just sayin’.
Sunnyboy
January 15, 2021 5:11 pm
Others have posted and now I will also on how I wish the season to
unfold.
1 toronto misses the playoffs, slows their overbearing media lightly.
2 Oilers and phlegms go to OT every game, adversity at the max, all will
see how that challenge plays out. Emotion and passion for all Alberta
fans, I like our chances and the opportunity to prevail.
3 West beats East.
4 All visitors to Alberta lose, days of a Death Valley welcome return.
I hadn’t noticed that. Some other sources confirm that Domingue was placed on waivers and cleared. A little surprising since he’s sort of in the same category as Forsberg. Also a little confusing for me since he’s not listed on their taxi squad at cap friendly?
Obviously, Calgary was in better shape to take the risk given that they have Rittich instead of Smith as their backup. Not to mention they also have Zagidulin on their taxi squad instead of Skinner. Certainly, far less exposure in this area than we had…
If the Jets claimed Forsberg to cause problems for the Oilers in the same division, that would certainly be a reasonable motivation for them.
He is a reliable source but the tweet you posted was not actually from him. The name on the tweet was the same but the twitter handle was not his. The fake accounts typically do that – same name and maybe photo too but the twitter handle will be slightly off.
Yeah, that’s an old tactic for sure. Hazard of not being on that platform, then quoting from it.
OriginalPouzar
January 15, 2021 3:29 pm
I’m fully comfortable with running with Mikko for the next little while. No back to backs until the end of the month. They play every second day for the next few weeks and, I believe, there are only three travel days.
Maybe they have to play Skinner in one of the games after they make the long trip out east…..
The one thing to note is that the issue of keeping a claimed goalie on the roster (or risk losing him to waivers) is kind of gone for the next few weeks as they could put Smith on IR and keep the new goalie on the roster.
One issue there though is cap space – they may not have the cap room to add a goalie to roster and have 3 players on IR.
Speaking of injuries, what if Mikko tweaks something?
Skinner has a sub .900 AHL history.
Ken Holland, get on the phone.
Last edited 3 years ago by Ryan
BornInAGretzkyJersey
January 15, 2021 3:11 pm
In light of the news with Smith likely to be out for weeks not days, thought I’d post the non-roster goalies of the Canadian teams to see if there’s any intel from the group.
VAN – Jake Kelly, Arturs Silvos, Matthew Thiessen
CGY – Artyom Zagidulin, Dustin Wolf, Tyler Parsons (injured), Daniil Chechelev
WPG – Mikhail Berdin (likely to be replaced on the taxi squad by Forsberg), Arvid Holm, Logan Neaton, Jared Moe
TOR – Michael Hutchinson, Joseph Woll, Ian Scott, Artur Akhtiamov
OTT – Kevin Mandolese, Filip Gustavsson
MTL – Cayden Primeau, Michael McNiven, Vasili Demchenko
Out of this list one thing comes to mind: the names worth taking either aren’t available or worth the cost of acquisition (Wolf, Parsons, Hutchinson, Primeau, McNiven), and the rest aren’t worth the time.
So intra-division acquisition of a goalie is extraordinarily unlikely. At least, I don’t see CGY, TOR or MTL doing us any favours. Shame, as that will require much longer quarantine if a goalie is acquired.
Which begs the question, how long does Smith have to be out for to make it worth adding a goalie from outside the division?
Winnipeg has to waive Forsberg to get him onto the taxi squad. Or they can waive Brossoit to get him on the taxi squad. Or they can keep 3 goalies on the 23 man roster.
They may keep three on the roster as they know the Oilers would claim either goalie if waived.
I believe I read that Forsberg is in Covid-Protocol – that may just be quarantine.
If he went to Winnipeg, he’ll need to quarantine upon return to Edmonton – although the Oilers are in Winnipeg on the 24th…..
OriginalPouzar
January 15, 2021 2:52 pm
Gregor advising that he’s been told Smith is out a few weeks.
I don’t think there will be an NHL replacement signed – given quarantine, etc. a new goalie probably couldn’t join the team for a good week, if not two, in any event.
There are no back to backs until the end of the month – they play every second day. Maybe Skinner gets a start but I think they will run with Mikko and I have confidence in him.
Understanding the quarantine rules…. and I apologize if this is a ridiculous question…. is there any legality or ability or possibility that the Oilers could pull some major strings and bring over Ilya Konovalov?
Looked like an embarrassed team working their asses off last night, was nice to see. 2/3rds of the 4th line should be placed on the dog sled team, Shore can have another at bat.
Kenny needs to find some back up for Miko, and it would be a brilliant move to find a LW that drops Archi to the 4th.
BornInAGretzkyJersey
January 15, 2021 2:32 pm
Gregor on TSN1260 with Tom Gazolla just now: “Just got a text Tommy, guy telling me: Mike Smith — probably expect a few weeks.”
Not sure I hold the same level of confidence in Skinner.
Although he’s been an absolute beast in the playoffs up to this point in his career. Maybe he does rise to the challenge, though odds aren’t in his favour.
I bet we see an acquisition sooner than later.
Fits Holland’s modus operandi.
VanIsleOil
January 15, 2021 2:10 pm
McDavid was pure magic last night. We are so lucky to have him on our team. Barrie’s reaction on Connors super goal is priceless.
Taking aside the LW, I’m not sure if Coach will choose to take Khaira out for a game or not. Listening to his post-game last night, he was commended for his play on the PK.
I would like to see the Ennis/Archie switch.
Well, actually, I would like to see Chiasson scratched, Archie at 4RW and Nygard at 4LW.
They would need to waive someone down to the taxi squad for that though (and assign someone else to the AHL from the taxi squad – that’s not a big deal as they don’t need to physically go anywhere and can be “called back up to the taxi squad” at any time).
BornInAGretzkyJersey
January 15, 2021 12:29 pm
Twice now I’ve heard Tippett refer to Barrie as a PP option with “more of a shooter’s mentality” when comparing him to Klefbom.
Was it JP who recently posted the career PP shots/60 of both and showed that Barrie shoots considerably less? I’d be interested to see if that’s accurate, because Tip’s statement rung untrue in that light.
For me it is more about Barrie having a shot that is a greater threat. Oilers PP strat encourages the opposing PK to cheat even more to the forwards than they already do. Need to have the threat of an effective blue line shot to help nullify that defense.
I just find it interesting that Tip talked about more of a shooter’s mentality when (if I recall correctly) the numbers do not validate his statement as accurate.
Also as you can see from the demo link, the downside is that it can slow the comment thread load times quite a bit.
I didn’t know this till you said it (because the demo loaded fine for me), although it’s just common sense. It was the deciding factor for me. It would be nice to have, but performance is more important in my opinion.
– I find the format now too “busy” I get advertising, and clicking on things, engaging the reader, and all that. The elegant simplicity appealed to me more. No noise. This is what for instance the NYT does: it’s just content, in a simple font. Do that. That said, Ryan has done an awesome job: I appreciate everything he does, out of his love to this great community, for free. Thanks Ryan
OriginalPouzar
January 15, 2021 12:27 pm
Haas out there skating with the group at today’s optional.
That’s great news.
I anticipate he’s probably a few weeks away as I’m presuming he was pretty sick and missed all of training camp. Going to take him a while to get his game shape back I would think.
Given the 4th line has been an issue through two games, having Haas as an option will be great – health up Gaetan – you are needed!
Elgin R
January 15, 2021 12:23 pm
Good points put forth on how Tippet has to balance 4th line 5v5 vs the PK. Another consideration is that a coach would like to be able to play the 4th-line center more than 5.7 min/g at 5v5 which he is doing this year to limit the negative impact from the player.
Last season the much celebrated Oilers PK was 84.42% compared to the league mean of 81.90%.
Using mean values for kill percentage (81.90%) and opportunities (215) from last season: 0.55 GA/g on the PK.
Using Oiler’s kill percentage (84.42%) and mean opportunities (215) from last season: 0.47 GA/g.
Does removing one outstanding-regular PK player (JJ) lessen the effectiveness of the PK? Probably. Making the assumption that it would not fall to below the league mean, the difference would be 0.08 GA/g. Compare that to JJ’s current -1 GF/GA per game at 5v5 or his numbers from last year of -0.28 GF/GA per game at 5v5.
Removing JJ from the lineup is a net benefit in the GF/GA department assuming the replacement player has a 5v5 number of better than -0.20 GF/GA per game (which extrapolates to -16.4 in an 82-game season). Example: Gaten Hass: -0.05 GF/GA game at 5v5 last season.
The math is clear. Removing JJ makes the team better.
I checked how bad Khaira has been at evens (GF%) over his career. It’s real ugly:
17-18 – 41%
18-19 – 38%
19-20 – 30% (!)
As ugly as the numbers are, your analysis used an outlier for him. If he is even a 40% GF guy (~-0.13 GF/game), assuming he is an elite PK guy we are getting close to even.
Here are the numbers for Shore:
16-17 – 50%
17-18 – 34% (!)
18-19 (Stars) – 48% (fifth best mark amongst forwards with 400+ minutes)
18-19 (Ducks) – 40%
19-20 (Ducks) – 39%
And Haas:
19-20 – 48%
Shore has had a couple of great seasons and two lousy ones. Unfortunately, the two lousy ones are the most recent ones. His pedigree, scoring-wise, is great (1+ PPG in the AHL at 21).
Haas’ number is gold amongst a collection of truly horrendous performances in the bottom six last season, but he’s coming off of COVID and who knows how he will perform when he gets back to speed.
I suspect Shore is the best bet.
That being said, if you get Shore at 40% again, Khaira is probably the better option with PK ability factored in (assuming regression to the meat for Khaira’s EV game).
OriginalPouzar
January 15, 2021 12:00 pm
I’m not sure Drai is getting enough love for last night’s game.
Even the drop pass on the McDavid rush goal was a plus play – a backhand sauce – but the pass on McDavid’s Hatty – the spin around, backhand lazer – my goodness,
Yes, taking offense at nothing burgers and choosing to react is a sure indication of defensiveness.
Last edited 3 years ago by Munny
Munny
January 15, 2021 11:44 am
I’d like to see the on-the-fly stats for the 4th line before making any judgments.
Some coaches like to throw their 4th line over the boards when the puck has been dumped deep for a fore-checking opportunity… something crash and bang lines tend to be pretty good at.
Last night it seemed like the 4th was coming over the boards when the other team had possession and was coming right back down our throats. That’s a much tougher row to hoe, so I can’t write them off as quickly as LT. (Except I’d like to see someone in for Khaira, lol, but that goes back to last Feb).
Now from one game it’s nearly impossible to determine if this is from poor work from the line preceding L4’s shift, or if it’s intentional by the coach. Gonna need more data than what we have right now to make that determination.
Last edited 3 years ago by Munny
Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR
January 15, 2021 11:38 am
I would think Holland might feel a bit more pressure to make a move between the pipes with Smith situation and Forsberg getting claimed. Not sure how to fit anyone under the cap, or what the acquisition cost would be, but we’re one pancake incident from having a tandem of Skinner and Starrett on Saturday night. And with quarantine rules, a quick fix might not be possible in an emergency. With all the division-only games, this situation could cost a team their season. I think it might be wise to have 3 goalies on the roster anyways.
Yes, three goalies on the active roster may become common this year. Are there any decent 3rd goalies he could trade for that have already cleared waivers so they don’t have to go on the active roster?
The Oilers have to have 3 goalies on the active roster/taxi squad.
A PTO doesn’t help (although they could keep Mike Smith “active” and on the roster and have a tender ready to sign).
With that said, I would presume that Howard is nowhere near Edmonton and likely 7 days, minimum, if not 14 days, away from being able to join the team – that will be an issue with almost any tender.
Yes, three goalies on the active roster may become common this year. Are there any decent 3rd goalies he could trade for that have already cleared waivers so they don’t have to go on the active roster?
At this point, a waiver claim would be fine as they would be staying on the active roster until Smith is back (at which time its fine if they get claimed went he Oilers waive) – won’t solve the ultimate problem of a real 3G so Skinner can play in the AHL but, in the interim.
Well, Starrett signed an AHL deal with Wilkes-Barre/Scranton…..
I don’t believe they have the cap room to add another player to the roster and have 3 guys on IR (essentially running a 26 player roster for cap purposes).
With that said, they could likely put Haas on LTIR retro to the beginning of the season.
He just started skating with the team today so is likely a couple of weeks away still.
They could also assign someone to the taxi squad (Khaira or someone would need to be waived) and assign Quine/Russell/McLeod to the AHL and have a 22 player active roster.
knighttown
January 15, 2021 11:32 am
I used to laugh at the narrative that Leon was the best “back handed passer” in the league. Just kind of chuckled at the group think; someone said it and everyone parroted it. But man, those two passes last night were among the best I’ve seen in the past decade. Do you know how flat that 60 foot saucer has to land for Connor to not even slow down? If that bobbles at all, he overskates it and the Canucks have a breakaway. Astounding touch.
One of my favorite assists ever was the one Sharks fans call “The Pass”. Joe Thornton holding the puck and slowly moving up the wall on his forehand. A 10th of a second glance and spins to rifle a backhand pass to Marleau back-door for the game winner. That spinning backhand pass to Connor last night was the baby brother to that pass. Slowly creeping up the wall. Everyone’s skates and Drai’s eyes looking up ice and BOOM…rocket on the tape.
I don’t get all the fuss about the PP drop back pass. Pretty routine play, and it’s a lot easier to saucer a pass on your backhand than on your forehand.
Having said that, Leon has been the best passer off his backend in the league since 2015. I compared him to Joe Thornton in his first year, and was derided on this board, but it was pretty obvious he was special.
Part of it is vision, seeing the entire ice and recognizing who is about to come open. But it’s also having the strength and skill in your hands to maneuver the puck. It’s easy to make a backhand saucer pass. It’s a lot tougher to manipulate the puck to a position to make the pass with accuracy and crispness. McDavids 3rd goal was a much better example of Leons skill.
Interesting that you doubted Drai’s backhand passing. He’s demonstrated it countless times over the last few years, passes that you just don’t see in other games. IMO he’s the best passer in the game, forehand and backhand. No that it’s worth much, but he did win the passing comp at the all star game a couple years ago. In fact, him
and Aho were the only players even mildly competent at it because it was a very difficult competition. That’s probably why we didn’t see that drill the following year.
Nothing beats Getzlaf (*spits) dominating that competition without misplacing a puck, then being asked about his skill. His nonchalant answer, “No big deal, really, it’s what I do.”
Some on this board have speculated that Leon might be the best backhand passer they have ever seen. A little nostalgia here, but among Gretzky’s 1,963 assists, there were more than a few unbelievable backhand saucers. He was the best ever at the “no look” backhand pass. I say “no look”, but the man seemed to have eyes in the back of his head. While there were many, my favorite was him crossing the blue line, cutting slightly to his left but and then around the hash marks, without spinning, backhanding a pass through his own legs 20 feet over 3 defenders sticks and landing flat on a charging (I believe) Kurri’s stick who went in and scored. I haven’t been able to find a replay of that one, but can easily find the ones where he did something similar with Coffey and when he turns at center to backhand to Kurri streaking between the defenders. Leon might be able to get more on a lengthy pass, like that 60 footer last year, and he could even get better, but no-one yet has come close to being as creative, accurate or dynamic at passing a puck forehand or backhand than 99.
That gorgeous no-look sauce by Drai on Connor’s third…
Clarkenstein
January 15, 2021 11:10 am
Don’t plan the Parade yet. After Connor and Leon Oil get caved. I think we forget about how obvious it is. Maybe you have to move Nuge or Nurse and picks to find balance. I don’t know anymore. Frustrating.
Of course, two likely every day 4th liners are on IR – both skating with the team now – one likely back sooner than the other.
Also, the coach will soon realize that the 3LW should be the 4RW and the 4RW likely an extra forward – this will happen soon.
OriginalPouzar
January 15, 2021 11:09 am
Encouraging signs early:
1) McDavid and Drai continuing to just be elite producers
2) Nuge and Yamamoto continuing their 2020 production – Yamamoto with three more even strength points in two games, perhaps a regression from last year is not in the cards (hopefully his body can sustain the rigors)
3) Nurse (and Bear) – Doesn’t look like the sophomore slump is coming for Bear and Nurse has been very good to my eye through two – he was one of the few that was reasonable in game 1 and was very good last night – making good decisions with he puck.
4) Mikko – Looks to be similar to last year which was pretty good. He let in 5 in game 1 but, really, wasn’t “bad” and he was full value last night. Some solid stops when the game was still in doubt.
Bear had a couple wobbles in game 1, but looked calm, cool and collected last night. Don’t think I noticed a single mistake.
Shore demonstrated immediate commitment to the cause last night. No lollygag in his game, same as it was when we used to play him. I thought that was pretty encouraging last night. If we see him on the PK in the near future, Khaira might be missing games.
Kookoo surprised me with a couple of deft plays in the *OZone*. There might be more player there than we realize.
Yamamoto and Draisaitl appear to communicate telepathically. Somebody should call Dr. Venkman.
Oh, ya, one other highly encouraging sign, for me – Turris looks good on the PK.
OriginalPouzar
January 15, 2021 11:03 am
The glowing report from Tip on Jesse during the post-game last night was great to hear.
Hopefully Tip is able to express his pleasure to Jesse over the next bit if Jesse doesn’t hit the scoresheet as I am concerned about Jesse losing confidence if that happens – I think this is where Tip excels as a coach
JimmyV1965
January 15, 2021 10:57 am
I don’t want to complain too much about a win, but geez our dmen struggle so much moving the puck out of the dzone. Nurse gave away the puck repeatedly down low. We managed to recover the puck so it didn’t hurt us, but this is our best dman. The bottom six is barely treading water, with the exception of JP, who looked good. I wonder if our poor transition game makes the bottom six look worse than they are. Without a magician like McDavid or Drai moving the puck north, it’s hard to make anything happen.
That has been somewhat of a problem both games, though less so last night and not just because they won. While I take Naturalstattrick’s scoring chance metrics with a grain of salt, (the location for the shot origin is a somewhat weak indicator of a scoring chance), their numbers from last night are consistent with my sense of the game. It was very wide open the first two periods, with Edmonton getting 13 HDCF and Vancouver 15 in all situations (Vancouver’s slight edge was due to having more PP time that they didn’t capitalize on). But I was encouraged how well the Oilers controlled the 3rd period to hold onto the lead. Vancouver had only 1 high danger chance in the 3rd. Yes, the Canucks won the Corsi, Fenwick battle in the third, but the Oilers didn’t break down and kept them to the almost exclusively to the outside.
I have watched a few of the other games, and early season defensive sloppiness is not unique to the Oilers and Canucks, although they are 2nd and 3rd in shots per game right now. So far the league wide save % is .900 in 15 games vs. .910 last year and that has more to do with defensive lapses than bad goaltending. Koskinen didn’t play bad in game 1, and Demko played reasonably well in game 2, but both gave up 5 goals due to being on an island a little too often.
But you are right that the Oilers need to get up the curve at least as fast if not faster than their competitors if they want to compete for a playoff spot.
Does this mean Winnipeg put in a claim when we put him on waivers too and got first crack? I had understood that we’d get first crack but maybe that’s only to reclaim for the purpose of putting him in the minors, so he’d need to go unclaimed first. Anyone understand the minutiae?
No, the Oilers did not have first claim rights – the waiver order for Forsberg was still based on last-year’s standings.
If the Oilers were the only team to put in a claim they would have been able to send him to the taxi squad without further waivers though (although, at this point, he’d be staying on the active roster until Smith is ready).
Redbird62
January 15, 2021 10:31 am
Obviously can’t wait forever for the 3rd and 4th lines to gel, but the top 2 lines, besides having at least 4 stars+, also have familiarity with Kahun being the only newcomer to that group. I think Jesse and Kyle have the potential to become good strong third line though I don’t believe think Archibald is a good fit there. He’s got speed, but he doesn’t seem to have that quality that can help the line sustain puck possession in the offensive zone which will reduce their defensive zone time. I think Shore or Nygard could be better fits with that group or maybe Neal. Tippett will likely tinker on the left side of that line, but I expect he will give Turris/Jesse quite a while to work things out, barring injuries or the Oilers going into a lengthy dive.
We may see a healthy Haas get a shot to replace Khaira on the 4th line. If Neal is ready to play first, maybe Tippett tests whether Neal, Khaira and Chaisson can replicate what they did late last year. Tippett needs to balance his PK needs with his bottom 6 5 on 5 needs. Archibald and Khaira contribute to the PK, but maybe others can fill in there and help beef up the bottom 6 performance. Tippett could wait a little bit first though to see if Turris will continue to effectively replace Sheahan before making a few more changes.
I think McLeod with his size and skating would make an excellent player for that spot. His speed and defensive awareness would make the third line very dangerous.
Good point on how Tippet has to balance 4th line 5v5 vs the PK. Another consideration is that a coach would like to be able to play the 4th-line center more than 5.7 min/g at 5v5 which he is doing this year to limit the negative impact from the player.
Last season the much celebrated Oilers PK was 84.42% compared to the league mean of 81.90%.
Using mean values for kill percentage (81.90%) and opportunities (215) from last season: 0.55 GA/g on the PK.
Using Oiler’s kill percentage (84.42%) and mean opportunities (215) from last season: 0.47 GA/g.
Does removing one outstanding-regular PK player (JJ) lessen the effectiveness of the PK. Probably. Making the assumption that it would not fall to below the league mean, the difference would be 0.08 GA/g. Compare that to JJ’s current -1 GA/g at 5v5 or his numbers from last year of -0.28 GA/g at 5v5.
Removing JJ from the lineup is a net benefit in the GF/GA department assuming the replacement player has a 5v5 number of better than -0.20 GA/g (which extrapolates to -16.4 in an 82-game season). Example: Gaten Hass: -0.05 GA/g at 5v5 last season.
The math is clear. Removing JJ makes the team better.
Archie does seem mis-cast in that role on a “skilled 3rd line” – as many suggested prior to the season.
Sounds like Ennis is likely back for tomorrow and I would think he should hit the 3LD spot and Archie can drop down to the fourth line.
In fact, I wouldn’t mind Archie to replace Chiasson as 4RW and Nygard inserted as 4LW – either Shore or Khaira to the taxi squad to get Nygard on the roster – the other plays center.
Yup, McLeod’s skill-set would likely be a good fit but, of course, being an NHL-ready player is more important and Nygard gets the call over McLeod, in my opinion.
Oz
January 15, 2021 10:20 am
Can anyone explain if McDavid was sending another “message” with his pointing celebration after he scored last night?
With the addition of the Bettman point, the league averages right around 1.107 pts/g per 82 game season. By all accounts, the Canadian-division teams are fairly equal with no runaway winner or loser (well maybe the Sens but we shall see). Could we see an even greater # of OT games? Probably. There have already been 2 OTs in the 4 games played so far which equates to 1.25 pts/g!
To make the playoffs in the Canadian division this year a team will need to be ‘just below average’.
Average at 1.107 = 62 pts
Average at 1.25 = 70 pts
So, just to make the playoffs (4th out of 7) a team will probably need at least somewhere around 65 points.
LT’s ‘What to Expect’ projections have proven fairly accurate over the years and that is a concern. If the Oilers only pickup 1.000 pts/g they will not even be close to the playoffs (and Button would be right). Got to find at least another point every third game to make it.
The other 3 divisions have 2-3 heavyweights, a soft middle and 2-3 teams clearly at the bottom. Canadian division has Ottawa at the bottom and then 6 teams that each have a good case to make the playoffs. That is parity or ‘fairly equal’ to me.
Too bad that Garret Sparks already went down to Florida after being released by the Flames. He’d be a decent pickup. Better than Rodrigue and Skinner at least.
Where’s Hayden Hawkey hiding? How long until he gets a call?
We have Dylan Wells. 2018/19 he had better SV% than Skinner.
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Forsberg reclaimed and now Smith out long term. I was wondering how long our present moment of joy would last… till the Hockey Gords started terrorizing us again.
We hoped for the best… but it turned out like always.
Maybe the Gords are just saving Tippett from himself this time..
So the Avalanche wake up and beat the Blues 8-0.
Their PP goes 7 out of 8.
Oh my.
Fortunate for the Oilers that this season the NHL is split up into 4 separate original 6 style divisions. No need to worry about any other teams except the ones in the division; the Flames, the Canucks, the Jets, The Leafs, The Canadiens and the Senators in that order.
Since Nuge became a full-time winger on January 1, 2020, he is 3rd in the NHL in 5 on 5 points (one point behind Drai and Kucherov). Of note, Yamamoto is tied for 4th, 2 points behind
Nuge is 4th in the NHL in overall points in that time (Drai has a 9 point lead over 2nd place……).
Since you seem to like small sample sizes, he’s currently tied with 35 others for 5V5 points, many of whom have only played one game.
Most that post in the name of engaging in conversation and discussion would understand the use of the date when the player changed from a center to a winger and acknowledge that over 30 games is no longer a nominal sample size but, of course, but you do you and post to incite.
30 games is a small sample size no matter how you slice it.
A sample size of just one post trying to equate 2 games to 30 in sample size would indicate you are either bad at trolling or bad at stats. The larger sample size of any quantity of your posts would lead most to conclude both those hypothesis are likely true.
Cough, cough, Thatcher Demko
Where’s Hayden Hawkey hiding? How long until he gets a call?
https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/190163/hayden-hawkey
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– Man poor Koski: the org hasn’t ever played him properly: disrespect him and give the 1st playoff game to Smith. Try in off-season to drop crazy town money for Mark who is no better. Keep playing Smith when he was sh$t, and never giving Koski the support or starts that starting goalies get in the NHL
– All they do is tell Koski : “your not a trustworthy starter” Now he’s going to get over played like he was 2 years ago, fullfilling the organizations view of him.
– I attribute this mostly to the fact that he isn’t this management or coachings guy: happens all the time in professional sport.
– Koski is a good legit NHL starting goalie, no better or worse than the team in front of him over a season. Not a stud: He didn’t lose the first game, nor did he win the 2nd. The team played better and he won. Thats goaltending non-elite, non-suck division that virtually all starters occupy in today’s NHL
– In the absence of a back-up who can play games in relief, but doesn’t get better treatment or more rope that him, its not going to end well for Koski (or the Oilers)
– Perhaps despite the poor job the organization has done, it will work out, as they surely can’t find a goalie they view as “better” than Koski this season.
‘ – Well maybe not virtually all starters Kinger. Be like: ” he’s in the division of 15-20 goalies who are proxies for team 5×5 play: a legit starter”
I’m not sure that 3 X $4.5M was a sign of disrespect
– Did you read my posts? I get your sore about Koski. I shouldn’t get baited into conversing with you on Koski, or goalies in general: you have no clue… That’s ok. I like a lot of your other posts
I’m sore about Koski? News to me.
‘- So abusive you were with blinders about koski. Like every game 10 posts about how he’s not an NHL goalie. No analysis. Just faulty logic. Nonesense about his weak glove and stuff. The revision to say he got way better because he he worked on his weaknesses. No understanding still about the relationship between goalie and team. The contract he signed with the old regime is part of my thesis for why he doesn’t get respect. Not only don’t you get the role of goalies you don’t get my post. That’s ok you have other good attributes for this blog and are a solid contributor.
Koskinen did have a terrible glove hand his first year with EDM.
That is not a controversial statement.
‘- Nah thats just a narrative: a by-product of guys in easy positions teeing it up. Ever since I was in peewee, it was the same story: goalie is weak top shelf. Of course that’s the hardest part of the net for a goalie to protect. And unobstructed shooters will generally shoot high glove side. I never got why this wasn’t understood. Now with less guys teeing it up, his glove is fine. You don’t develop in an off season better motor skills to improve glove in your 30s. I love how that became the rationalization for why he’s better: yeah he worked on it.
‘- Here’s what happened: he had a year of experience, would have known how to better prepare, and was more familiar with his opponents tendancies, and the requirements of him. Most goalies in their 2nd season, in any league, get better the next year, all else being equal. He got to play more games in front of a better D, comprised of more legit D. The team was also a lot better, and he didnt play like 35 games in a row or whatever it was at the end of that first season. All of these things were predictable. HIs technique improvement in off-season is far down the list of reasons why he went from ‘not an NHL goalie” to a NHL starting goalie.
Kevin Woodly has spoken directly to technique changes in his game over the last few years.
A vast over-exaggeration and I never once complained specifically about “his glove hand” – not once, ever. I’ve always thought the specific complaints about “on his knees beat high” and “terrible glove hand” were over-stated. So, please, don’t tell me I know nothing when you put things on me that I never typed, said or opined. Geez.
Oooops, 5-3
OP: Rodrigue is in Austria so that’s not really an option
At least a week for games in Alberta and another week on the road, but for now he is the option
Well, there are no flights from Vienna to YYC tomorrow but there are on Sunday – if he can get the test and the rest results he needs before then to even get on the plane under the new Canadian government rules for flying in to Canada.
A lot to arrange in a day but at least Vienna has lots of approved sites:
https://travel.gc.ca/destinations/austria#health
If Rodrigue is the answer…what was the question?
Ottawa “Capitals” 5-2 over the leaves, score 4 straight in the 3rd.
Mikko. whoa, oh-oh-oh
He’s for the money, he’s for the show
Mikko’s a-waitin’ for the go
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HQZBaJAngH8
I get a red -1 faster than McDavid gets rebound goals off the faceoff.
Daryl, time to pull that Ledger Nano out of your pocket, and send a few B’s over to Russia. And maybe Konovalev can be on a plane in the morning. Gary and Vlad wouldn’t know.
WTF, Smith.
KH is in a bit of a pickle
it will be interesting to see if he doubles
down on the risk of MK getting injured and we have a sub AHL goalie with no back up OR
he makes a trade. There aren’t a lot of options that would fit the oilers current cap space. The trade(s) would therefore likely cost an asset and probably more valuable than losing Forsberg or Lags on waivers.
Sooo… can we help Ilya Konovalov to defect?
Seriously though…is there precedent for contracts being bought out? He seems as good a bet as any to be the backup aside from big swings…
Katz?? Are you there?? Can someone put out the signal??
The KHL has refused to sign a transfer (or similar) agreement with the NHL, I don’t think they are going to be changing their tune in the immediate future.
What is the over/under at opponents running Koskinen?
Over one stupid troll/ under a bridge
Yea because the opponents will be thinking shit that fella Mike Smith is out I midst well dive at Koskinen.
What the over/under on you seeking therapy for your toxicity? I imagine the answers will mirror each other.
On a one to ten scale of ignorant statements that is off the charts. It shows a complete disregard for basic decency a complete lack of humanity. You should be real proud of yourself as this is a new low even for you!
It’s a valid question.
If you’re a team with a 2 game set against the Oilers, getting Koskinen off his game could be a priority that has two wins as a reward.
Luckily, there are no games against Calgary in the next little while.
Chucky would be all over this.
This is quite the little fantasy world you have constructed for yourself. You have such an active imagination.
Like that time you thought Broberg was responsible for 2 goals against when he wasn’t even on the ice for either of them.
Where Joe Colbornes and Leon Draisaitls are one in the same.
Where Brogan Rafferty is a 2nd line D.
Where Shea Weber is a RD.
Where you make bets that you don’t have to pay when you lose.
And now teams are just going to take runs at Koskinen just because.
What a happy safe space you made for yourself.
You’re right about all the other stuff, but Weber is a RD.
You are right – HH was saying Weber is a better LD than Nurse even though Weber is RD.
The NHL is a unforgiving league any sign of weakness the opponents will try to exploit.
Why wouldn’t they?
Knowing the opposition doesn’t have a credible backup option is an opportunity.
No different than playing to the side of a rookie D man.
Totally. This explains why in the playoffs teams take runs at eachothers goalies constantly until both teams have no choice but to pull some fans out of the crowd to play in net. I mean, why wouldn’t they?
Yeah…it’s very common that NHL teams don’t have a credible backup for game 3 of the regular season.
Happens all the time.
Good grief.
Yeah it’s very common for an NHL team to have their NHL backup go on LTIR for game 3 of a shortened regular season during a pandemic.
Happens all the time.
Good grief.
Yep.
An exceptional opportunity.
I bet this has never happened before where a team has played against another team where their backup was injured.
Once teams start taking runs against Koskinen I bet it’s going to revolutionize the game. Teams will be taking note and taking runs at all other teams to get to their #3 goalie.
Just like teams are going to take runs at Boeser just because he has an injury history and will likely re-injure and they know Quinn Hughes will snap all of his sticks and take as many penalties as possible to stick up for him.
Yep.
This is how these things work.
So you have just stated that playing more to the side of a rookie D is the same as more running a goalie in hopes that you can injure him. Ie. Both are morally equivalent strategies. Wow, you are a seriously depraved troll.
This will get you impeached for inciting an insurrection.
I wonder if this will make it past LT’s censors..
about the same as you taking out your man bun….and actually contributing something
I could see Koski getting the paddle out and pulling a tripple wack (like last night) and beat you stupid with that comment
Per Gregor:
Smith on LTIR
Rodrigue recalled, avail able by the 24th if he arrives tomorrow.
Available by the 24th? Coming from Europe?
I guess if he flys into Calgary and goes through the YYC pilot project. He’d still need to stay in Alberta for two weeks and the Oilers would be in Winnipeg for games on the 24th and 26th.
Edmonton Oilers
@EdmontonOilers
·
4m
The #Oilers have placed goaltender Mike Smith on Long Term Injured Reserve & have reassigned Olivier Rodrigue (currently in the Austrian National League) to the club’s taxi squad, pending quarantine protocols.
Lots and lots of talk about the 4th line and it getting caved and how it needs to be fixed.
Totally fair, 100%, that’s true.
At the same time, lets not forget that the Oilers had 3 regulars (well if you include Haas as a regular) not available last night for forwards.
They got caved last night (and in game 1) but the 4th line had real NHL players and there were real NHL players such as Nygard waiting to get in and that was with 3 NHL players out with injury/illness
That fourth line could easily be Nygard/Ennis/Haas/Neal in the future.
They really should have picked up Ned on waivers
I posted the other day he’s listed as a top (15?) goalie outside the NHL.
https://thehockeywriters.com/who-is-the-nhls-top-goaltending-prospect/
Given Waddell gave Old Dutch a courtesy call as a head’s up and Kenny passed, I’d wager he’s got a plan in mind. Or, hope so.
What is David Ayres upto???
Richard Bachman looks to be available.
Just sayin’.
Others have posted and now I will also on how I wish the season to
unfold.
1 toronto misses the playoffs, slows their overbearing media lightly.
2 Oilers and phlegms go to OT every game, adversity at the max, all will
see how that challenge plays out. Emotion and passion for all Alberta
fans, I like our chances and the opportunity to prevail.
3 West beats East.
4 All visitors to Alberta lose, days of a Death Valley welcome return.
OT? Blast – beat those guys in regulation, every time.
Is Skinner really a downgrade from Smith? Smith rocking a .900 the last two years plus he is good for 7-12 own goals.
With either Skinner or Smith in the net, the strategy is the same: McD hattrick + food poisoning for the opposing team.
Okay, admittedly, Skinner’s .894 in the ECHL looks particularly bad.
Technically, the .900 SV% includes the 7-12 own goals 🙂
Well, that .900 would include those 7-12 own goals.
Of note, in 2020 regular season, in 19 games, Mike Smith had a 2.78/.911
Am I wrong on not liking Holland trying to sneak Forsberg through waivers?
Was that a blunder?
Calgary kept Louis Domingue on their active roster.
Calgary put Domingue on waivers but he went through unclaimed.
Renaud Lavoie
@renlavoietva
·
Jan 10
Waivers: Joseph Cramarossa (MIN), Louis Belpedio (MIN), Mathew Bartokowsi (MIN), Louis Domingue (CAL), Alex Petrovic (CGY), Justin Kirkland (CGY), Charles Robinson (CGY), Byron Froese (CGY), Mason Jobst (NYI), Joshua Ho-Sang (NYI), Josh Currie (PIT), Frederick Gaudreau (PIT)…
I posted a tweet of his the other day that turned out to be false, not sure how reliable he is as a source.
I hadn’t noticed that. Some other sources confirm that Domingue was placed on waivers and cleared. A little surprising since he’s sort of in the same category as Forsberg. Also a little confusing for me since he’s not listed on their taxi squad at cap friendly?
Obviously, Calgary was in better shape to take the risk given that they have Rittich instead of Smith as their backup. Not to mention they also have Zagidulin on their taxi squad instead of Skinner. Certainly, far less exposure in this area than we had…
If the Jets claimed Forsberg to cause problems for the Oilers in the same division, that would certainly be a reasonable motivation for them.
CF has Domingue listed as an emergency loan for CGY.
He is a reliable source but the tweet you posted was not actually from him. The name on the tweet was the same but the twitter handle was not his. The fake accounts typically do that – same name and maybe photo too but the twitter handle will be slightly off.
Yeah, that’s an old tactic for sure. Hazard of not being on that platform, then quoting from it.
I’m fully comfortable with running with Mikko for the next little while. No back to backs until the end of the month. They play every second day for the next few weeks and, I believe, there are only three travel days.
Maybe they have to play Skinner in one of the games after they make the long trip out east…..
The one thing to note is that the issue of keeping a claimed goalie on the roster (or risk losing him to waivers) is kind of gone for the next few weeks as they could put Smith on IR and keep the new goalie on the roster.
One issue there though is cap space – they may not have the cap room to add a goalie to roster and have 3 players on IR.
They may need to put Haas on LTIR, retroactive.
Speaking of injuries, what if Mikko tweaks something?
Skinner has a sub .900 AHL history.
Ken Holland, get on the phone.
In light of the news with Smith likely to be out for weeks not days, thought I’d post the non-roster goalies of the Canadian teams to see if there’s any intel from the group.
VAN – Jake Kelly, Arturs Silvos, Matthew Thiessen
CGY – Artyom Zagidulin, Dustin Wolf, Tyler Parsons (injured), Daniil Chechelev
WPG – Mikhail Berdin (likely to be replaced on the taxi squad by Forsberg), Arvid Holm, Logan Neaton, Jared Moe
TOR – Michael Hutchinson, Joseph Woll, Ian Scott, Artur Akhtiamov
OTT – Kevin Mandolese, Filip Gustavsson
MTL – Cayden Primeau, Michael McNiven, Vasili Demchenko
Out of this list one thing comes to mind: the names worth taking either aren’t available or worth the cost of acquisition (Wolf, Parsons, Hutchinson, Primeau, McNiven), and the rest aren’t worth the time.
So intra-division acquisition of a goalie is extraordinarily unlikely. At least, I don’t see CGY, TOR or MTL doing us any favours. Shame, as that will require much longer quarantine if a goalie is acquired.
Which begs the question, how long does Smith have to be out for to make it worth adding a goalie from outside the division?
The problem with not making a deal is, if Koskinen gets hurt in this window, you are completely screwed.
Holland should look to make a deal. You still need some insurance for Smith.
There’s absolutely no point in waiting on this. They needed someone even before Smith went out.
Winnipeg has to waive Forsberg to get him onto the taxi squad. Or they can waive Brossoit to get him on the taxi squad. Or they can keep 3 goalies on the 23 man roster.
They may keep three on the roster as they know the Oilers would claim either goalie if waived.
I believe I read that Forsberg is in Covid-Protocol – that may just be quarantine.
If he went to Winnipeg, he’ll need to quarantine upon return to Edmonton – although the Oilers are in Winnipeg on the 24th…..
Gregor advising that he’s been told Smith is out a few weeks.
I don’t think there will be an NHL replacement signed – given quarantine, etc. a new goalie probably couldn’t join the team for a good week, if not two, in any event.
There are no back to backs until the end of the month – they play every second day. Maybe Skinner gets a start but I think they will run with Mikko and I have confidence in him.
Only 3 travel days in that period.
If Smith goes on IR, I assume they need someone for the taxi squad goalie spot. Who’s first up for that?
Within the system it would be Wells or Rodrigue.
So if that were to happen I’d guess they’d pick the guy they’re most comfortable with not playing games. Development is crucial.
Rodrigue is in Austria so that’s not really an option.
Understanding the quarantine rules…. and I apologize if this is a ridiculous question…. is there any legality or ability or possibility that the Oilers could pull some major strings and bring over Ilya Konovalov?
Konovalov can’t sign an NHL contract until his KHL deal is done end of day April 31, 2021.
Well damn, there goes that idea.
Hey Daryl..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LBYZoc9lnvE
..
Gotta make a deal.
There’s no way Skinner can see the ice this season.
Time to get Koskinen in playoff form 🙂
Looked like an embarrassed team working their asses off last night, was nice to see. 2/3rds of the 4th line should be placed on the dog sled team, Shore can have another at bat.
Kenny needs to find some back up for Miko, and it would be a brilliant move to find a LW that drops Archi to the 4th.
Gregor on TSN1260 with Tom Gazolla just now: “Just got a text Tommy, guy telling me: Mike Smith — probably expect a few weeks.”
Stuart Skinner’s “Jordan Binnington” opportunity a-cometh.
Not sure I hold the same level of confidence in Skinner.
Although he’s been an absolute beast in the playoffs up to this point in his career. Maybe he does rise to the challenge, though odds aren’t in his favour.
I bet we see an acquisition sooner than later.
Fits Holland’s modus operandi.
McDavid was pure magic last night. We are so lucky to have him on our team. Barrie’s reaction on Connors super goal is priceless.
https://twitter.com/zjlaing/status/1349919970797338625
He can’t believe what just happened, but he will get used to it.
Smith remains unavailable – pretty hush hush on what’s going on with him.
Ennis skated today and is likely available for tomorrow.
All I’ve heard about Smith was something family related.
Hope everything’s okay. Hockey is a distant second when it comes to real life.
I’ve read the family thing as well but I believe its somewhat speculation as there have been conflicting reports re: injury vs. illness
Yeah hoping things are alright with the family.
With this in mind do you see JJ coming out and Shore replacing him as 4C, Ennis back to 4LW?
Taking aside the LW, I’m not sure if Coach will choose to take Khaira out for a game or not. Listening to his post-game last night, he was commended for his play on the PK.
I would like to see the Ennis/Archie switch.
Well, actually, I would like to see Chiasson scratched, Archie at 4RW and Nygard at 4LW.
They would need to waive someone down to the taxi squad for that though (and assign someone else to the AHL from the taxi squad – that’s not a big deal as they don’t need to physically go anywhere and can be “called back up to the taxi squad” at any time).
Twice now I’ve heard Tippett refer to Barrie as a PP option with “more of a shooter’s mentality” when comparing him to Klefbom.
Was it JP who recently posted the career PP shots/60 of both and showed that Barrie shoots considerably less? I’d be interested to see if that’s accurate, because Tip’s statement rung untrue in that light.
Last thing I want is Barrie taking more shots
goal of pp is to put puck on Mcdavids or Drais stick
Need to shoot once and awhile keep the opponents PK honest opens up both sides.
For me it is more about Barrie having a shot that is a greater threat. Oilers PP strat encourages the opposing PK to cheat even more to the forwards than they already do. Need to have the threat of an effective blue line shot to help nullify that defense.
Agreed.
I just find it interesting that Tip talked about more of a shooter’s mentality when (if I recall correctly) the numbers do not validate his statement as accurate.
Yeah… reputation is a thing in the NHL and that’s for sure.
I’m hoping he shoots less because the first one usually goes in! Hehe.
Unfortunately not, was hoping the same but Barrie hasn’t actually scored a lot of PP goals recently (or ever really).
It was me.
Barrie has shot less than Klefbom (PP) in each of the past 3 years.
There’s a good reason for that. It’s not enabled yet.
The next question is whether or not we want YouTube embeds in the comments?
We’ve been pretty democratic about this process.
Vote + if you want YouTube embeds
Vote – if you don’t want YouTube embeds
If you don’t know what we’re talking about. See the demo here (link)
We’ll see where this goes, then I can check with LT for the final answer.
Pretty rare that I click links.
I think a trial run could be beneficial.
That way if people get carried away posting keyboard cat montages or non-topical videos the capability gets removed.
Vote!
Also as you can see from the demo link, the downside is that it can slow the comment thread load times quite a bit.
Also, I worry about what it will do to Lead farmer. He had a hard enough time with the gifs.
It’s a little presumptuous for me to even collect this data, because I haven’t discussed it with LT yet. He might say “no chance.”
I didn’t know this till you said it (because the demo loaded fine for me), although it’s just common sense. It was the deciding factor for me. It would be nice to have, but performance is more important in my opinion.
100% – if it would slow down page loads, I vote no.
A scroll bar on the right would be magic! I need to know what my commitment level is on reading the thread ?
This is minor, and only an issue on mobile, but I agree it would be nice.
Dont
– I find the format now too “busy” I get advertising, and clicking on things, engaging the reader, and all that. The elegant simplicity appealed to me more. No noise. This is what for instance the NYT does: it’s just content, in a simple font. Do that. That said, Ryan has done an awesome job: I appreciate everything he does, out of his love to this great community, for free. Thanks Ryan
Haas out there skating with the group at today’s optional.
That’s great news.
I anticipate he’s probably a few weeks away as I’m presuming he was pretty sick and missed all of training camp. Going to take him a while to get his game shape back I would think.
Given the 4th line has been an issue through two games, having Haas as an option will be great – health up Gaetan – you are needed!
Good points put forth on how Tippet has to balance 4th line 5v5 vs the PK. Another consideration is that a coach would like to be able to play the 4th-line center more than 5.7 min/g at 5v5 which he is doing this year to limit the negative impact from the player.
Does removing one outstanding-regular PK player (JJ) lessen the effectiveness of the PK? Probably. Making the assumption that it would not fall to below the league mean, the difference would be 0.08 GA/g. Compare that to JJ’s current -1 GF/GA per game at 5v5 or his numbers from last year of -0.28 GF/GA per game at 5v5.
Removing JJ from the lineup is a net benefit in the GF/GA department assuming the replacement player has a 5v5 number of better than -0.20 GF/GA per game (which extrapolates to -16.4 in an 82-game season). Example: Gaten Hass: -0.05 GF/GA game at 5v5 last season.
The math is clear. Removing JJ makes the team better.
I checked how bad Khaira has been at evens (GF%) over his career. It’s real ugly:
17-18 – 41%
18-19 – 38%
19-20 – 30% (!)
As ugly as the numbers are, your analysis used an outlier for him. If he is even a 40% GF guy (~-0.13 GF/game), assuming he is an elite PK guy we are getting close to even.
Here are the numbers for Shore:
16-17 – 50%
17-18 – 34% (!)
18-19 (Stars) – 48% (fifth best mark amongst forwards with 400+ minutes)
18-19 (Ducks) – 40%
19-20 (Ducks) – 39%
And Haas:
19-20 – 48%
Shore has had a couple of great seasons and two lousy ones. Unfortunately, the two lousy ones are the most recent ones. His pedigree, scoring-wise, is great (1+ PPG in the AHL at 21).
Haas’ number is gold amongst a collection of truly horrendous performances in the bottom six last season, but he’s coming off of COVID and who knows how he will perform when he gets back to speed.
I suspect Shore is the best bet.
That being said, if you get Shore at 40% again, Khaira is probably the better option with PK ability factored in (assuming regression to the meat for Khaira’s EV game).
I’m not sure Drai is getting enough love for last night’s game.
Even the drop pass on the McDavid rush goal was a plus play – a backhand sauce – but the pass on McDavid’s Hatty – the spin around, backhand lazer – my goodness,
He gets all the accolades that a stoic German requires. Crosby got all the love – Malkin did the work!
Maybe read the comment thread first lol
Yes, sir, Constable Forum Police!
Of course, what one feels is “enough love” is quite subjective and not necessarily in reference to opinions on one social media platfrom.
Wow, you’ve been pretty defensive lately. Carry on.
I believe that post was more about noting one being offensive than in itself defensive.
Yes, taking offense at nothing burgers and choosing to react is a sure indication of defensiveness.
I’d like to see the on-the-fly stats for the 4th line before making any judgments.
Some coaches like to throw their 4th line over the boards when the puck has been dumped deep for a fore-checking opportunity… something crash and bang lines tend to be pretty good at.
Last night it seemed like the 4th was coming over the boards when the other team had possession and was coming right back down our throats. That’s a much tougher row to hoe, so I can’t write them off as quickly as LT. (Except I’d like to see someone in for Khaira, lol, but that goes back to last Feb).
Now from one game it’s nearly impossible to determine if this is from poor work from the line preceding L4’s shift, or if it’s intentional by the coach. Gonna need more data than what we have right now to make that determination.
I would think Holland might feel a bit more pressure to make a move between the pipes with Smith situation and Forsberg getting claimed. Not sure how to fit anyone under the cap, or what the acquisition cost would be, but we’re one pancake incident from having a tandem of Skinner and Starrett on Saturday night. And with quarantine rules, a quick fix might not be possible in an emergency. With all the division-only games, this situation could cost a team their season. I think it might be wise to have 3 goalies on the roster anyways.
Yes, three goalies on the active roster may become common this year. Are there any decent 3rd goalies he could trade for that have already cleared waivers so they don’t have to go on the active roster?
I think if we’re going to spend assets on a goalie we should aim higher than the ilk who will clear waivers.
Otherwise we could sign a Bachman or a Howard (*shudder) type to fill in for taxi squad duty.
You do realize now that you mentioned his name, Howard will probably be signed before the weekend’s over.
My bad.
I’ll get me coat!
Can the Oilers PTO Howard or anyone else as a back-up plan?
It takes two to tango, but yes, so long as they can find a dance partner.
The Oilers have to have 3 goalies on the active roster/taxi squad.
A PTO doesn’t help (although they could keep Mike Smith “active” and on the roster and have a tender ready to sign).
With that said, I would presume that Howard is nowhere near Edmonton and likely 7 days, minimum, if not 14 days, away from being able to join the team – that will be an issue with almost any tender.
At this point, a waiver claim would be fine as they would be staying on the active roster until Smith is back (at which time its fine if they get claimed went he Oilers waive) – won’t solve the ultimate problem of a real 3G so Skinner can play in the AHL but, in the interim.
Well, Starrett signed an AHL deal with Wilkes-Barre/Scranton…..
I don’t believe they have the cap room to add another player to the roster and have 3 guys on IR (essentially running a 26 player roster for cap purposes).
With that said, they could likely put Haas on LTIR retro to the beginning of the season.
He just started skating with the team today so is likely a couple of weeks away still.
They could also assign someone to the taxi squad (Khaira or someone would need to be waived) and assign Quine/Russell/McLeod to the AHL and have a 22 player active roster.
I used to laugh at the narrative that Leon was the best “back handed passer” in the league. Just kind of chuckled at the group think; someone said it and everyone parroted it. But man, those two passes last night were among the best I’ve seen in the past decade. Do you know how flat that 60 foot saucer has to land for Connor to not even slow down? If that bobbles at all, he overskates it and the Canucks have a breakaway. Astounding touch.
One of my favorite assists ever was the one Sharks fans call “The Pass”. Joe Thornton holding the puck and slowly moving up the wall on his forehand. A 10th of a second glance and spins to rifle a backhand pass to Marleau back-door for the game winner. That spinning backhand pass to Connor last night was the baby brother to that pass. Slowly creeping up the wall. Everyone’s skates and Drai’s eyes looking up ice and BOOM…rocket on the tape.
I don’t get all the fuss about the PP drop back pass. Pretty routine play, and it’s a lot easier to saucer a pass on your backhand than on your forehand.
Having said that, Leon has been the best passer off his backend in the league since 2015. I compared him to Joe Thornton in his first year, and was derided on this board, but it was pretty obvious he was special.
Part of it is vision, seeing the entire ice and recognizing who is about to come open. But it’s also having the strength and skill in your hands to maneuver the puck. It’s easy to make a backhand saucer pass. It’s a lot tougher to manipulate the puck to a position to make the pass with accuracy and crispness. McDavids 3rd goal was a much better example of Leons skill.
Don’t forget the canoe paddle.
I personally thought the pass on the 3rd goal was far more skilled than the one on the second.
Interesting that you doubted Drai’s backhand passing. He’s demonstrated it countless times over the last few years, passes that you just don’t see in other games. IMO he’s the best passer in the game, forehand and backhand. No that it’s worth much, but he did win the passing comp at the all star game a couple years ago. In fact, him
and Aho were the only players even mildly competent at it because it was a very difficult competition. That’s probably why we didn’t see that drill the following year.
Nothing beats Getzlaf (*spits) dominating that competition without misplacing a puck, then being asked about his skill. His nonchalant answer, “No big deal, really, it’s what I do.”
Some on this board have speculated that Leon might be the best backhand passer they have ever seen. A little nostalgia here, but among Gretzky’s 1,963 assists, there were more than a few unbelievable backhand saucers. He was the best ever at the “no look” backhand pass. I say “no look”, but the man seemed to have eyes in the back of his head. While there were many, my favorite was him crossing the blue line, cutting slightly to his left but and then around the hash marks, without spinning, backhanding a pass through his own legs 20 feet over 3 defenders sticks and landing flat on a charging (I believe) Kurri’s stick who went in and scored. I haven’t been able to find a replay of that one, but can easily find the ones where he did something similar with Coffey and when he turns at center to backhand to Kurri streaking between the defenders. Leon might be able to get more on a lengthy pass, like that 60 footer last year, and he could even get better, but no-one yet has come close to being as creative, accurate or dynamic at passing a puck forehand or backhand than 99.
Agreed.
Gretz was simply a marvel in so many facets of the game. Truly set the bar incomprehensibly high for all who follow in his gigantic shadow.
Although I may be a little biased 😉
#2, 1:25 in, is one of the best passes of the last number of years:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lHkxvALhiU
That gorgeous no-look sauce by Drai on Connor’s third…
Don’t plan the Parade yet. After Connor and Leon Oil get caved. I think we forget about how obvious it is. Maybe you have to move Nuge or Nurse and picks to find balance. I don’t know anymore. Frustrating.
Yeah what we need to be doing is getting more lesser players
if you want to compete the goal very clearly is to play Jones as a #1 LHD
Could you clarify what you mean by that comment? Thx
Of course, two likely every day 4th liners are on IR – both skating with the team now – one likely back sooner than the other.
Also, the coach will soon realize that the 3LW should be the 4RW and the 4RW likely an extra forward – this will happen soon.
Encouraging signs early:
1) McDavid and Drai continuing to just be elite producers
2) Nuge and Yamamoto continuing their 2020 production – Yamamoto with three more even strength points in two games, perhaps a regression from last year is not in the cards (hopefully his body can sustain the rigors)
3) Nurse (and Bear) – Doesn’t look like the sophomore slump is coming for Bear and Nurse has been very good to my eye through two – he was one of the few that was reasonable in game 1 and was very good last night – making good decisions with he puck.
4) Mikko – Looks to be similar to last year which was pretty good. He let in 5 in game 1 but, really, wasn’t “bad” and he was full value last night. Some solid stops when the game was still in doubt.
5) Jesse
Bear had a couple wobbles in game 1, but looked calm, cool and collected last night. Don’t think I noticed a single mistake.
Shore demonstrated immediate commitment to the cause last night. No lollygag in his game, same as it was when we used to play him. I thought that was pretty encouraging last night. If we see him on the PK in the near future, Khaira might be missing games.
Kookoo surprised me with a couple of deft plays in the *OZone*. There might be more player there than we realize.
Yamamoto and Draisaitl appear to communicate telepathically. Somebody should call Dr. Venkman.
Oh, ya, one other highly encouraging sign, for me – Turris looks good on the PK.
The glowing report from Tip on Jesse during the post-game last night was great to hear.
Hopefully Tip is able to express his pleasure to Jesse over the next bit if Jesse doesn’t hit the scoresheet as I am concerned about Jesse losing confidence if that happens – I think this is where Tip excels as a coach
I don’t want to complain too much about a win, but geez our dmen struggle so much moving the puck out of the dzone. Nurse gave away the puck repeatedly down low. We managed to recover the puck so it didn’t hurt us, but this is our best dman. The bottom six is barely treading water, with the exception of JP, who looked good. I wonder if our poor transition game makes the bottom six look worse than they are. Without a magician like McDavid or Drai moving the puck north, it’s hard to make anything happen.
That has been somewhat of a problem both games, though less so last night and not just because they won. While I take Naturalstattrick’s scoring chance metrics with a grain of salt, (the location for the shot origin is a somewhat weak indicator of a scoring chance), their numbers from last night are consistent with my sense of the game. It was very wide open the first two periods, with Edmonton getting 13 HDCF and Vancouver 15 in all situations (Vancouver’s slight edge was due to having more PP time that they didn’t capitalize on). But I was encouraged how well the Oilers controlled the 3rd period to hold onto the lead. Vancouver had only 1 high danger chance in the 3rd. Yes, the Canucks won the Corsi, Fenwick battle in the third, but the Oilers didn’t break down and kept them to the almost exclusively to the outside.
I have watched a few of the other games, and early season defensive sloppiness is not unique to the Oilers and Canucks, although they are 2nd and 3rd in shots per game right now. So far the league wide save % is .900 in 15 games vs. .910 last year and that has more to do with defensive lapses than bad goaltending. Koskinen didn’t play bad in game 1, and Demko played reasonably well in game 2, but both gave up 5 goals due to being on an island a little too often.
But you are right that the Oilers need to get up the curve at least as fast if not faster than their competitors if they want to compete for a playoff spot.
Time to get your eyes checked. They don’t remotely agree with the advanced stats for Nurse.
He had three or four boneheaded turnovers in the dzone. Yet we recovered the puck. Where does this fit in with advanced stats?
In general, I have liked the look of the D so far.
The bottom 6 numbers are still bad.
Jess has looked good for sure…but the rest?
Archibald is no 3rd liner.
Elliotte Friedman (@FriedgeHNIC) “It isn’t much of a surprise that Winnipeg went ahead and grabbed Forsberg.”
Thanks Waddell… dick!
Does this mean Winnipeg put in a claim when we put him on waivers too and got first crack? I had understood that we’d get first crack but maybe that’s only to reclaim for the purpose of putting him in the minors, so he’d need to go unclaimed first. Anyone understand the minutiae?
I’d also like to know the details with this, as I thought we had first right of refusal to reclaim Forsberg once CAR waived him.
No, the Oilers did not have first claim rights – the waiver order for Forsberg was still based on last-year’s standings.
If the Oilers were the only team to put in a claim they would have been able to send him to the taxi squad without further waivers though (although, at this point, he’d be staying on the active roster until Smith is ready).
Obviously can’t wait forever for the 3rd and 4th lines to gel, but the top 2 lines, besides having at least 4 stars+, also have familiarity with Kahun being the only newcomer to that group. I think Jesse and Kyle have the potential to become good strong third line though I don’t believe think Archibald is a good fit there. He’s got speed, but he doesn’t seem to have that quality that can help the line sustain puck possession in the offensive zone which will reduce their defensive zone time. I think Shore or Nygard could be better fits with that group or maybe Neal. Tippett will likely tinker on the left side of that line, but I expect he will give Turris/Jesse quite a while to work things out, barring injuries or the Oilers going into a lengthy dive.
We may see a healthy Haas get a shot to replace Khaira on the 4th line. If Neal is ready to play first, maybe Tippett tests whether Neal, Khaira and Chaisson can replicate what they did late last year. Tippett needs to balance his PK needs with his bottom 6 5 on 5 needs. Archibald and Khaira contribute to the PK, but maybe others can fill in there and help beef up the bottom 6 performance. Tippett could wait a little bit first though to see if Turris will continue to effectively replace Sheahan before making a few more changes.
Archibald really is a right handed Caggiula who PKs. He’s a decent fourth liner, if overpaid a bit.
That third line will look eminently better with Neal on the LW and, by extension, Archi will look better on the 4th line.
Otherwise I agree, Nygard as 3LW and get the RTP 4th line back together before tinkering too much.
I think McLeod with his size and skating would make an excellent player for that spot. His speed and defensive awareness would make the third line very dangerous.
Neal would have been a lot better bet to cash that sweet pass from Puljujarvi last night.
Good point on how Tippet has to balance 4th line 5v5 vs the PK. Another consideration is that a coach would like to be able to play the 4th-line center more than 5.7 min/g at 5v5 which he is doing this year to limit the negative impact from the player.
Last season the much celebrated Oilers PK was 84.42% compared to the league mean of 81.90%.
Using mean values for kill percentage (81.90%) and opportunities (215) from last season: 0.55 GA/g on the PK.
Using Oiler’s kill percentage (84.42%) and mean opportunities (215) from last season: 0.47 GA/g.
Does removing one outstanding-regular PK player (JJ) lessen the effectiveness of the PK. Probably. Making the assumption that it would not fall to below the league mean, the difference would be 0.08 GA/g. Compare that to JJ’s current -1 GA/g at 5v5 or his numbers from last year of -0.28 GA/g at 5v5.
Removing JJ from the lineup is a net benefit in the GF/GA department assuming the replacement player has a 5v5 number of better than -0.20 GA/g (which extrapolates to -16.4 in an 82-game season). Example: Gaten Hass: -0.05 GA/g at 5v5 last season.
The math is clear. Removing JJ makes the team better.
Archie does seem mis-cast in that role on a “skilled 3rd line” – as many suggested prior to the season.
Sounds like Ennis is likely back for tomorrow and I would think he should hit the 3LD spot and Archie can drop down to the fourth line.
In fact, I wouldn’t mind Archie to replace Chiasson as 4RW and Nygard inserted as 4LW – either Shore or Khaira to the taxi squad to get Nygard on the roster – the other plays center.
Yup, McLeod’s skill-set would likely be a good fit but, of course, being an NHL-ready player is more important and Nygard gets the call over McLeod, in my opinion.
Can anyone explain if McDavid was sending another “message” with his pointing celebration after he scored last night?
He was fired up because he’s a competitive guy.
I wouldn’t read too much into it.
With the addition of the Bettman point, the league averages right around 1.107 pts/g per 82 game season. By all accounts, the Canadian-division teams are fairly equal with no runaway winner or loser (well maybe the Sens but we shall see). Could we see an even greater # of OT games? Probably. There have already been 2 OTs in the 4 games played so far which equates to 1.25 pts/g!
To make the playoffs in the Canadian division this year a team will need to be ‘just below average’.
So, just to make the playoffs (4th out of 7) a team will probably need at least somewhere around 65 points.
LT’s ‘What to Expect’ projections have proven fairly accurate over the years and that is a concern. If the Oilers only pickup 1.000 pts/g they will not even be close to the playoffs (and Button would be right). Got to find at least another point every third game to make it.
You’re working from the assumption that “by all accounts the Canadian Division teams are fairly equal”.
From all accounts I’ve seen, Toronto has been identified as a clear favorite to win the division.
What leads you to think the opposite?
The other 3 divisions have 2-3 heavyweights, a soft middle and 2-3 teams clearly at the bottom. Canadian division has Ottawa at the bottom and then 6 teams that each have a good case to make the playoffs. That is parity or ‘fairly equal’ to me.
The Canadian division has one clear favourite and one clear bottom feeder.
That leaves 5 teams competing for 3 spots.
That changes the dynamic considering the unbalanced schedule.
53 years of hearing some version of this with the same futile results!
You should be able to just post the youtube link.
I posted the link below but it doesn’t embed?
.