2020-21 Game 28: Senators at Oilers

by Lowetide

The most successful Connor McDavid line (goal differential five on five, 200+ minutes) was the trio who outscored opponents 10-3 in 2016-17 over 213 minutes: Lucic-McDavid-Eberle. I know you’ll want proof, it is here.

That may change, depending on the “New Originals” line’s ability to stay together for 200+ minutes. So far, in 44 minutes together, the Draisaitl-McDavid-Yamamoto line is 6-0 goals. 100 percent. Not bad.

THE ATHLETIC!

I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.

OILERS AFTER 28 GAMES

  • Oilers in 2015-16: 11-15-2, 24 points; goal differential -11
  • Oilers in 2016-17: 14-10-4, 32 points; goal differential +6
  • Oilers in 2017-18: 11-15-2, 24 points; goal differential -14
  • Oilers in 2018-19: 14-12-2, 30 points; goal differential -6
  • Oilers in 2019-20: 16-9-3, 35 points; goal differential +7
  • Oilers in 2020-21: 16-11-0, 32 points; goal differential +3

Interesting that 28 games into each season, these six sets have separated so completely. I have an impression of each season in my mind and the three good campaigns all had a ring of hope the others lost along the way. I’d say 2018-19 was the last of the ‘poor’ seasons to step into the elevator shaft, but by game 28 the goal differential and the points-per-game total (1.07) suggested full season point total (88) that would land shy of the playoffs. The current team has a point-per-game total of 1.19, giving a 56-game projection of 66.7 points. A win tonight pushes it to 68 points. I believe both are playoff totals.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM MARCH

  • At home to: Toronto, Toronto, Calgary (Expected: 1-1-1) (Actual 1-2-0)
  • At home to: Ottawa, Ottawa, Ottawa (Expected: 2-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • On the road to: Vancouver, Calgary, Calgary (Expected: 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to Winnipeg, Winnipeg (Expected: 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: Montreal, Montreal, Montreal (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: Toronto, Toronto (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 9-6-1, 19 points in 16 games
  • Current results: 2-2-0, 4 points in four games

I had the Oilers finishing at 3-2-1 for the month after the Ottawa series, right now the team is at 2-2-0. Mike Smith will start tonight, to be honest I’m not certain this Oilers will be 7-0-0 against Ottawa by the end of the week. That has more to do with the Senators than the Oilers. We’ll see.

GAME 28 STATS

The great thing about the halfway point in the season is that you can just double everything. We’re one game away from that point (tonight) but the if you check hockeydb after the game, it’s the one game a year you can just double all the totals. It’s Nerd-vana.

Oilers fans hammered Shawn Horcoff like Dick Pound at a drug-testing convention when he finished 0.89 points-60 in 2011-12. I’m glad no one is ripping Nuge for the 1.25-60, but that number needs to be better. Chances are it will dive as long as he is playing on a line without someone who can push the river (97, 29).

Defense is Corsi five on five and coach Tippett may want to increase the minutes given to Jones-Bear in the coming days. Even with issues and injuries, the two young blue are the most effective at their respective positions using this metric.

Mike Smith remains the class of the group (five on five SP) and will start tonight.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN 1260, we’ll spend two hours talking sports. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal will talk about the new McDavid line, Walter Gretzky and the brier. Joe Osborne from OddsShark will talk NBA lines and how to make the most of your NHL units. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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hungoverman

Testint 1, 2, 3 Cannot log in for today’s posts.

Munny

Grosenick wins 5-1. First start since 2014. Good for him. Been a good year for tweener goalies.

€√¥£€^$

Unless you are Anton Forsberg ?

Munny

McLeod’s shorthanded penalty shot and Hamblin’s first ever AHL goal can be found here:

https://twitter.com/Condors

wolf8888

Sweet! thanks for sharing

Munny

I might put toghether a clip that includes the penalty on the shorthanded breakaway. We’ll see.

wolf8888

Cool. That was a nice move on the penalty shot.

kgo

What the Fack did I just watch!? The first clip, Skinner gets absolutely destroyed by #25, Gulls Captain Sam Carrick. The guy barely gets pushed and he does a diving two handed cross check into Skinner’s head…I can’t believe Skinner got up from that. No response that I saw…going to check hockeyfights.com now.

Then at the end of the highlight package, that same asshole drives a Condor’s dman into Skinner, hard contact right in the blue paint….wtf is going on in the AHL?

tsunami

Had exactly the same reaction…

Sierra

I love paying for 6, or whatever it is, Sportsnet channels as part of my cable package only to have programming blacked out “due to regional restrictions”. Seems to me the only the time there is programming on most of these channels is when it is the exact same programming that is on SportsnetWest. Time to look at alternatives.

flea

Sports net sells a streaming package (SN Now+) that includes NHL Live which would let you get around regional blackouts. If you pay annually it’s around $20 a month.

I used game center with a VPN for years- still tough if you want PVR capabilities – then you’re stuck at looking at Center Ice which costs a lot.

Sierra

Thanks

BornInAGretzkyJersey

I cut the cord in 2015.

$75+ a month to watch 33% commercials adds up.

Some network issues aside (rural) I don’t regret making the switch one bit.

wolf8888

What did you switch to?

OriginalPouzar

Oilers have pulled ahead of MTL in points percentage.

On the other hand, a VAN loss puts a 5th nail in their coffin.

Hmmm.

treevojo

Oh don’t worry.

a long post regarding points percentage against teams other then Ottawa in the North will be up coming.

That is obviously how one decides whose really in contention for the last half of the season.

Last edited 3 years ago by treevojo
Reja

I’m definitely cheering for the Habs tomorrow night.

Dac189

Crazy that a team that is 17-11 (0.607 win %) has the same points percentage as a team that is 11-13 (0.458 win %).

OriginalPouzar

Condors win their 6th straight.

Top line remains dominant.

Skinner stops 32 of 33.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

I like that Woody and Co. are being rewarded for sticking to the process.

They started the season behind the 8-ball compared to many other teams and have turned a corner. Old Dutch and Kretz did a great job finding spots abroad for the guys to keep fresh.

OriginalPouzar

Tyson Barrie was 4-1 goals and 19-4 shots at 5 on 5 (5-1 goals overall).

godot10

Barrie ruined both Mike Smith’s shutout, and the perfection of the Draisaitl-McDavid-Yamamoto line.

Statistics without context lie. Barrie had little to do with those goals.

Last edited 3 years ago by godot10
OriginalPouzar

Barrie was instrumental in creating an early lead and leading to the ability to keep Drai and McDavid under 20 minutes and Nurse under 21 – something actually important.

Munny

False narratives lie even more. Do you have anything more than bald and biased assertion?

flea

The Sens execute a perfect double touch pass and it’s Barrie’s fault. Ok…

Sierra

Yes, don’t forget he is selfish and purposefully takes points away from the wingers, who by the way are hobbits.

Pretendergast

The bumper forward was not at all trying to touch it to Dadanov, lucky break, good on Dadonov for being in the right place.

Sierra

I knew this post was coming from you the moment I read OP’s comments.

delooper

Hey, running good young defensemen out of town is a long-standing Edmonton tradition. Jeff Petrys grow on trees, dont you know.

jp

Barrie ruined both Mike Smith’s shutout, and the perfection of the Draisaitl-McDavid-Yamamoto line.

Statistics without context lie. Barrie had little to do with those goals.

Haha, but Kassian was ‘responsible’ for multiple GA due to not blocking the point shot?

Reja

We both thought there was a good chance Barrie would hit it out of the park and rack up the points. If he keeps it up a GM is going to pay thick and long is it going to be Holland.

Munny

Nope.

OriginalPouzar

Ken Holland sung the praises of Bouchard today and expressed, about 3 times, in 2 minutes, that he’s going to be a good player for the Oilers for a long time.

hunter1909

That dreaded vote of confidence from the GM.

Reja

Could the Oilers Barrie be what Detroit’s Mike Green was for Holland. They are kinda similar in parts of their game. Maybe it’s Bear being traded he’s one of our few trading chips that a handful of teams would be very interested in.

jp

Huh. That’s not a bad point. And the Green comparison isn’t without merit.

Oilerguy

That doesn’t mean that’s the right idea though.

OriginalPouzar

Both McDavid and Drai under 20 minutes (both in the 19s with 5:19 of PP time) – money.

Nurse and Barrie just barely over 20 minutes (and Larsson just 1 second less than Nurse) – money.

jp

You called it earlier.

It reminded me for some reason to give you kudos for calling Yamamoto and Lagesson as real quality players while still in Bakersfield, when their boxcars didn’t tell their story at all.

OriginalPouzar

Thanks – those two stuck out in Bakersfield for me:

1) Kailer – he was truly dominant in the fall 2019 – he was a scoring chance creator, on a 2nd/3rd line (playing with the likes of Esposito and Joe G., etc.) shift after shift. If one wasn’t watching the games (I wouldn’t expect more to actually watch), his development would look underwhelming

2) Lagesson – I noticed Lagesson at the Penticton tournament a while ago and saw him as a decent skater with some puck skills. The general verbal on his as a pure defensive d-man who couldn’t really skate or move the puck didn’t match his actual game. He’s got good offensive instincts. I’m not sure we’ll ever really see them at the NHL level but he’s not devoid of “skill”.

OriginalPouzar

Talk today about the increase in revenues due to the new US TV deal. Yes, this is true but, I retorted that it won’t help the cap any time soon as it doesn’t go above $82.5M until the escrow balance is paid off.

Bettman indicated the same today:

“As part of that the salary cap is basically going to be flat until we recover the overpayments through the escrow that we have build up in both the Return to Play and this season where obviously there is a major escrow building up because of the fact that there’s no attendance and attendance directly and indirectly accounts for roughly half our revenues,” said Bettman during the press conference via Zoom.

https://eprinkside.com/2021/03/10/nhl-salary-cap-to-be-flat-cap-or-near-flat-cap-for-the-immediate-future

Munny

Post one from the NHLPA if you want a balanced view. Not the guy paid to cheerlead for the owners.

One season’s TV revenue is looking to be more than double prior TV revenue. In other words, more than the total gate receipts for one year, if they truly are half of existing TV.

We all already know we have to wait till escrow going to be paid off. We can also clearly see it’s not going to take long.

OriginalPouzar

Apx 4 seasons.

Redbird62

This deal is $400 million per year for the NHL, versus $200 million from the prior deal. In total, to move the cap above $82.5 million per team,the NHL needs to pull in just over $5 billion per season after paying off escrow. Half that $5 billion would come from gate receipts and concessions, while the other half comes from a whole long list of other revenue. In addition to the ESPN deal, the Rogers Sportsnet deal is a similar amount per season to the new ESPN deal. Plus the NHL revenue also include all the local broadcast rights in 31 (soon to be 32) markets, advertising revenue, merchandise sales etc. To put it in perspective, the players are entitled to half of all revenue, so after escrow is repaid, the players get credit for $200 million of this contract versus $100 million from the prior contract, divided by 32 teams (the Kraken will be in the denominator) resulting in an incremental $3 million per team for the salary cap. It all helps, but if starting in 2021/22 the stadiums aren’t packed with ticket buyers paying pre pandemic prices, it is going to take a few years to pay back the escrow and be able to meaningfully raise the cap.

treevojo

Well that didn’t work.

never mind.

was just trying to repost this comment.

I will settle for a save on the first shot tonight and a convincing win by at least 5 goals please and thanks. 
SHOW NO MERCY

Gerta Rauss

You can delete a comment by clicking on the “my content and settings” icon, below the comment box, just to the right of the total comment counter

Munny

Not sure if you can re-post. I think it just gives a link… like what you got.

OriginalPouzar

Hamlin with an absolute beauty with 8 minutes left to put the Condors up 3-1. Griffith will get the apple with a nice neutral zone battle.

OriginalPouzar

If JJ Khaira continues this play for the rest of the season – what’s his next contract look like?

Does he get a $1.6M X 2?

fishman

Consistency obviously the big question. The JJ we have seen for past 10 games worth $1.5.. JJ from last year and early season this year not so much. Cheering for the guy and hope he has gained the confidence to keep playing at his current level.

Munny

50/50 at $1.75M for Walter and the Food Bank. Sales close at 11pm MST

hunter1909

Update: from Hunter1909’s Death March Regular Season 2021™(since 2014)

With Oilers on pace for a 68 point finish, here are the current leaders in the Death March game which might pay out to all winners at the end of the season. 

dcsj-57; Slocanoil; SOS; JAMCON; Hot Eire; Enigma

Will replace previous leaders:

Jaxon; Tips; Oil Clog; thegreatbigmac; Sam Elliot; JP2.0; Wolf8888; unca miltie

Want to enjoy the Death March™ experience first hand? Follow the link:  http://www.oilersdeathmarch.com

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Hey, Hunter1908… you’re missing a contestant from that list of current leaders.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

 23 days ago

Hey Hunter, still don’t see my entry included. I’ve tried submitting on this site with the entry form, and twice on the blog in the comments section.

Please put me down for:

68 points

55 goals

Thanks.

jp

Glad the Death March Team got my handle right for 1 day of glory.. As I now fade off into the anonymous sea of non-believers.

kgo

Oiler domination to follow?

Munny

Easy wins like this one usually aren’t particularly helpful to a team, other than the points in then win column. Gives the coach a bit more space to be critical though, so I’m sure Tipp will take and use that space.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Don’t look a gift horse in the mouth. Good teams capture points they have to and as many of the ones they need to where they’re able.

I also enjoy the Double Stat Padding for the Dynamic Duo.

Last edited 3 years ago by BornInAGretzkyJersey
OriginalPouzar

Probably would have been 9-0 if Barrie wasn’t playing….

Munny

more of the dry one-liners please.

Gerta Rauss

Well, that’ll fatten up the goal differential in a quick hurry

Munny

it needed to get off the diet.

hunter1909

Draisaitl/McDavid superstars. Awesome to have them but…

Puljujarvi meanwhile, is developing in front of our eyes. What a power prospect!

Klima's_Bucket

Barrie had 3 assists tonight.

Without watching highlights, does anyone remember any of them?

Crazy Pedestrian

Yup. The short pass to Drai before he went end to end and split the D to score his first of the night.

… I don’t remember the others though..

GMB3

Secondary assist heaven $$$$$$$ smart career move coming to Edmonton.

OriginalPouzar

Barrie was a massive part of the apx minute long possession in the offensive zone and the chaos creation that led to the game’s first goal.

Tyson Barrie has absolutely outperformed his $3.75M cap hit this season.

Klima's_Bucket

How much dollars and term would you allocate to him if you were Holland?

OriginalPouzar

Nothing – I don’t want to re-sign him next season.

I want to re-sign Adam Larsson.

That doesn’t take away the benefit he makes to the current team.

fishman

Agreed. As good as Barrie has been this year you don’t bring him back and pay him $5-6 mil. Top six of

Nurse/ Bear
Jones/ Larsson
Lagesson-Russel/Bouchard

would be fine. Ideally Klef comes in and knocks Jones, Lag’s down.
Not sure if they bring Kookoo back and you still have guys pushing up from below. Of course assuming Larsson re signs. Pretty sure I read some where he likes it here and wants to come back. Nice problem to have!

TheGreatBigMac

Are we just assuming klef is done now?

Sierra

Agreed, milk Barrie for all he’s worth this year and then don’t bring him back next year.

fishman

Oilers could have easily scored 10 tonight.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

After the last decade of watching this team, I’m used to drinking for totally different reasons.

Well done men.

SK Oiler Fan

I’ve never seen an nhl team lose so many battles in a row once in their own zone. I know they’re low on talent, but it’s like they have their sticks upside down

Bank Shot

You must be too young to remember the fabled Chorney-Strudwick pairing. Still gives me nightmares. haha

SK Oiler Fan

Recall that one. This seems worse.

Sierra

Sadly I remember too many such games

Munny

We really could’ve used some empty net practice tonight…

hunter1909

7-1 reflects the game and the Senators know they’ve been whipped by a better team.

8-1 and they will be thirsting for blood next time lol

BornInAGretzkyJersey

What’s that guy Haasta do to score a goal?

Munny

Did Chiasser or Neal make that deft pass?

fishman

I hear bells ringing!

OriginalPouzar

Another post, Haas this time….

N64

Post Haaste.

They write themselves

Munny

Thou haast nailed it.

N64

Haasta la vistaa

OriginalPouzar

Oh, come on guy, you are up 6 goals with two minutes left…. someone go after Tkachuk

fishman

Yea he needs to be reigned in by some one. Maybe next game.

Darth Tu

Nah. I have to say ignoring him is the best option tonight. We play again on Friday don’t we? Let’s give them zero reason for any extra motivation heading into the weekend.

oilsnc79

Say Bruce M. The backhand pass from McDavid ti Drai was very similar to the Mess to Andy play from the day. Are they watching the 80s oil games? Hmmm

jzed

McD /Drai/Yammo look like a cat toying with a ball of yarn

Oil2Oilers

Imagine how many Richard trophies Draisaitl would win if he could score empty net goals

OriginalPouzar

Damn, Nuge to Jesse for a goal would have been aces…. stupid post.

Munny

Nobody wanted to score

Klima's_Bucket

I hate to ask again but,
who or what was Barrie covering on that goal against?

godot10

$7 million per year for 5 years. Retirement contracts for small D career cliff diving are so Edmonton OIlers.

OriginalPouzar

I have zero desire to re-sign him but will defiintely appreciate the materially positive benefit he provides for the current team on the ice, outperfoming his cap hit.

Klima's_Bucket

How much is he outperforming his cap hit by?

OriginalPouzar

I don’t know and I don’t really care – take him off this hockey team and its a much worse team.

Its noteworthy to me, though, that, as a 7-1 victory is finished off, the post-above is what you decide to post on a night where the player was 4-1 goals at 5 on 5, 19-4 shots at 5 on 5 and had three points – a player that has been playing 23-25 minutes most nights. It does stick with the theme of the majority of your posts being negative posts about this player.

Klima's_Bucket

I rarely comment, but tonight made one comment about Barrie’s defensive lapse so I’m not sure where you figure I post several negative posts about the player.
Unless you’re getting me confused with someone else.

I was genuinely curious about your valuation of the player but you don’t know or care to answer so I’ll move along.

OriginalPouzar

Nicklaus Good
@NicklausGood
 · 1h
Leon Draisaitl now ties with Jochen Hecht as the second-highest scoring German player of all-time with 463 points… in 383 less games; 26 points away from passing Marco Sturm #LetsGoOilers

jp

In 383 less games, haha.

Hecht was alright though.

Tarkus

Dadonov with the tap-in to crack the goose egg.

OriginalPouzar

Not positive Watson meant to pass that….

OK, now Tip won’t be compelled to start Smith on Friday so Mikko can start Friday and Smith on Sat.

delooper

What do people find so aggravating about Haas? He seems to get the opposition worked up. But whatever he’s doing it’s not totally obvious to me.

N64

Haassled.

delooper

I could imagine him talking about fondue and skiiing the Swiss Alps. If someone did that enough with me, I’d probably get annoyed as well.

Munny

He prefers Haasenpfeffer to fondue. Pretty sure.

Last edited 3 years ago by Munny
jp

Hmmm, are you sure?

He’s listed in some places as being born in Bonfol, which is apparently ~85% french speaking.

And I felt like I heard some of both accents when I went to look for him speaking (not that he’s asked to often).

Of course it matters not at all, just curious at this point.

OriginalPouzar

Not a great finish-attempt there by Kailer.

N64

ok now that we’ve pumped drai’s tires we can rest that line

delooper

I feel bad for Ottawa. It wasn’t long ago the Oilers looked like this.

hunter1909

And Senators had a great regular season team that always got throttled in the playoff grind.

hunter1909

Check out the wailing and knashing of teeth over on Calgary Puck. Always good for a lol

jzed

People are going to realize that getting entwined with Jesse is a bad idea

OriginalPouzar

Geezus, important Sens players keep hurting themselves, and they look like term injuries – we need the Sens to win some games against other teama……

DevilsLettuce

Jesse the Puppy just crushed a man

N64

it’s like Clifford the big Red dog bouncing into you

hunter1909

Great “back-check”.

treevojo

What a fuckin pass

duplicate comment I’m told

lol

BornInAGretzkyJersey

WE WANT TEN!

Way to go Leon.

OriginalPouzar

Geezus, what a play by McDavid (and Drai) for the Drai hatty.

Tarkus

Einz, zwei, Draiiiiiiiiii

SK Oiler Fan

Smith looks like he’s having fun back there. Trying some crazy plays like no look backhand breakout pass through the slot.

delooper

Mike Smith breakaway. Book it!

jp

Gary Smith?

delooper

It seems like the debate about Nurse is over now. He’s everything I hoped he’d turn out to be.

OriginalPouzar

We now know, with certainty, that he can be among the top d-men in the league – he has that level of play in him and he can do it for a solid period of time.

The question is, if he can do it for, not only a full season (so far so good) but season after season.

If he continues this play in to next season, I will have no problem with putting the finishing touches on his $7.5M contract, for term, when he arrives back from the Olympics.

jp

What if it’s more than $7.5, by the time he returns from the Olympics?

OriginalPouzar

I will have pause but, if its THIS Nurse for the next 7-8 years, he’ll provide value for the contract over its term – the cap will probably start going up as well in 3-4 years.

Lets not forget, Nurse isn’t even in the beginning of his prime yet and I also don’t see him as a d-man that’s going to cliff-fall at 31. I think he’ll be a beast for the term of his contract.

Caveat: We still don’t know if THIS Nurse is the one we’ll see nightly for 8 years. Arrows are up on that possibility though.

The man doesn’t get enough credit for his “rush defence” – he may be the best in the league.

OriginalPouzar

Great forecheck shift by the 2nd line – Jesse is a bull.

OriginalPouzar

Anisimov seems elite at missing the net high from the slot.