Crazy 210 revisited

by Lowetide

The 2014 draft was the first one I made a “Here Comes the Sun” style list with rankings. I was truly shocked by how many players I’d ranked that didn’t get chosen. There were 11 undrafted from my top 100 overall! That seemed like a lot, but I wasn’t trying to get all the picks, merely trying to find the prospects that math liked most. Looking back on those 11 undrafted from my top 100 overall, maybe math was on to something.

THE ATHLETIC!

I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here’s the latest!

2014 DRAFT MEMORIES

The Oilers hit a majestic home run in the 2014 draft, and selected two other ranked names:

  • (3) C Leon Draisaitl—This is a fine hockey player. No one should be surprised if he goes No. 3 overall.
  • (77) D William Lagesson—Two-way defender, interesting bio.
  • (91) G Zachary Nagelvoort—College goalie with good to very good numbers.

The Oilers didn’t go walkabout until selection No. 130 overall. That was progress back in 2014, and Oilers fans were on cloud nine with the selection of the big German center. Here’s what I wrote about my list and the 11 names that weren’t drafted from my top 100 (next words from 2014):

It WAS a weird draft, no doubt. I sat on my couch and waited for my favorites (no harm in saying them out loud now: Dexter Dancs, Chase De Leo, Andrew Mangiapane, Ilya Sorokin, Aaron Irving, Oscar Podanski). None arrived. Le sigh. I made a list of 137 players for this entry draft, and assumed there would be 10 or so left over. Final number? 17, including 11 in my top 100! That’s almost 10%!

  • (43) L Dexter Dancs—Sleeper power forward. (Note: 0 NHL games)
  • (49) L Vladimir Tkachev—Small, skilled Russian. (Note: 0 NHL games, just signed with LAK)
  • (52) C Andrew Mangiapane—EV/60 is 3.4 and that’s outstanding. (Note: 178 NHL games and counting).
  • (62) L Kris Schmidli—Swiss winger an emerging star in Kelowna. (Note: 0 NHL games)
  • (73) C Luke Philp—Skill center can play a complementary role. (Note: 0 NHL games)
  • (78) D Gavin Bayreuther—A college man, he has nice boxcars. (Note: 28 NHL games)
  • (80) D Riley Stadel—Crazy good puck handling defender. (Note: 0 NHL games)
  • (81) C Colby Cave—Undersized checker. (Note: 67 NHL games)
  • (82) C Reid Gardner—Two-way center, improving. (Note: 0 NHL games)
  • (90) L Blake Clark—Big power forward with some skill. (Note: 0 NHL games)
  • (98) D Sebastian Aho—Undersized puck moving defender. (Note: 25 NHL games)

Recently, several people have given me credit for identifying Andrew Mangiapane the year before Calgary drafted him. I love when people do, but the real credit goes to math, and specifically Extra Skater. The site no longer exists (at least publicly), as the Toronto Maple Leafs hired Darryl Metcalf in August of 2014. He was the brains behind Extra Skater, and provided brilliant math to all who cared (I cared) in 2014 spring. As much as I’d love to take credit, it belongs to Mr. Metcalf.

THE ONES THAT GOT AWAY

Now we’re back to 2014:

If you follow the draft, there’s a favorite or two in there somewhere. If you like scorers or big defensemen or possession players, then your list probably elevates those kids and pushes others down. For years now I’ve punished stay at home defensemen and goaltenders, and elevated wide range of skill fellows. There were several players I thought would go quite high who were available at No. 91 and No. 111. There were MANY available at No. 130!

  • (37) L Spencer Watson—(No. 209 to LAK) (Note: 0 NHL games)
  • (42) D Dysin Mayo—(No. 133 to ARI) (Note: 0 NHL games)
  • (46) C Chase De Leo—(No. 99 to WPG) (Note: 5 NHL games)
  • (59)  D Jacob Middleton— (No. 210 to LAK) (Note: 14 NHL games)
  • (60) R Ondrej Kase—(No. 205 to ANA) (Note: 207 NHL games)

My 2014 list was fun to do, but even identifying names like Mangiapane and Kase doesn’t mean identifying them is easy. If I’d run Edmonton’s draft, I would have chosen Bennett over Draisaitl, and these names would have followed: Spencer Watson, Dysin Mayo, Dexter Dancs, Vladimir Tkachev and Andrew Mangiapane.

The Oilers were better off with MacT and Stu MacGregor.

What the Leafs now have (the club has been roaring at the draft since about 2018) appears to have taken a few years (perhaps it took until Kyle Dubas became the de facto general manager) in order for Metcalf and others in the analytics department to believe enough in the process.

Now, all of that said, I’ve been impressed with Edmonton’s drafting since 2011, and it took another uptick in 2015. I don’t know if Dellow helped at the draft (he would have been in a position to do it for the 2015 and 2016 drafts), but the time line matches.

Either way, lots of putdowns online about the current analytics department (I’ve never understood why it’s okay for “smart people” to crap on others, but there are miles of people who claim to be analytics adopters who can’t wait to spit out vile things about Justin Mahé and his brother) and there’s zero doubt the Oilers need to add in this area.

Here’s the thing: You can state that without being cruel. An example is here. Anyway, just my opinion and no one will listen, but hammering on the two guys in the analytics department is kind of like laughing at the Swiss Guard because they don’t have killer helicopters.

Perhaps aim a little higher, as opposed to mocking someone in what appears to be an impossible position.

POSSIBLE OILERS ROSTER

Based on Daniel Nugent-Bowman’s fine reporting (I’ll never tell you to do anything, but highly recommend reading his latest at The Athletic), safe to assume a very conservative summer and we are free to speculate about a Caleb Jones trade before the expansion draft. Prepare to be underwhelmed:

Before I forget: Free agents are Nemeth (two years), Larsson (four years), Smith (one year), Coleman (three years), Nuge (six years).

One trade: Caleb Jones and Cooper Marody to the Tampa Bay Lightning for wingers Ondrej Palat and Mathieu Joseph, plus a 2022 fourth-round selection. Before you go crazy, Edmonton takes on $4.26 million and gives up a fine young defenseman in the deal (but gains a pick).

Klefbom on LTIR, team begins the season with $1,040,000 in cap room.

I do not like this roster, it’s not the way forward in my opinion. However, if the organization isn’t protecting Caleb Jones, then trading him is the only logical solution. We wait.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we’ll hit the ground running with two hours of fun and informative radio. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal with talk about Adam Larsson’s value, and why the Habs got past the Jets while Edmonton wasn’t equal to the task. Joe Osborne from OddsShark will talk NBA and NHL playoffs at 11. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk to you in 90 minutes!

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Jaxon

With Montreal drafting at #29 (28th player picked), and Islanders (New Jersey got their pick in a trade) now drafting at #30 (29th player picked), Edmonton moves up another spot to pick at #20 (19th player picked)!!! Way to go Islanders (sorry about your Bruins, Lowetide)!

JimmyV1965

I’m thinking the Caps made a mistake not resigning Trotz.

Oilerguy

I was damn sure of that the second it happened but I think he wanted another mission and to work with one of the all time better GMs

stephenw24

Anyone think Columbus might rebuild their team moving on from tortorella and trading a few players. Is there any way Seth Jones would want to play with Drai, Mcdavid et al and perhaps His younger brother depending on expansion draft? He played in Portland so would be familiar with western Canada. Any other players on their roster to target? Some have mentioned his game has slipped, what is the consensus.
In the player

Bling

I am taking some flak (“drinking silly juice”) for suggesting younger players should be given the opportunity to play a greater role. That includes Benson, Bouchard, Kahun, Jones, and others.

My response to that is:

Two seasons ago, the best Oilers forward addition was Kailer Yamamoto.
This past season, the best Oilers forward addition was Jesse Puljujarvi.
Two seasons ago, the best Oilers defensive addition was Ethan Bear (honorary mention to Caleb Jones)

These were homegrown, Oiler drafted players with professional experience (and AHL success) in their early 20s whose time had come for a legitimate opportunity.

Despite the recent run of prospect success, the consensus on this blog is, the best forward addition next year must be Blake Coleman or Tatar or some other mercenary for hire of that ilk.

I completely disagree.

The big winner in the Tyson Barrie one year deal was Tyson Barrie, not the Edmonton Oilers. Repeat that move over and over and you’ll never find out about any of your young players.

Benson and Kahun are tracking to be superior players to Coleman. That may not come to fruition, but it’s not nothing, either.

The idea of a Coleman type player is absolutely correct; the idea that the player must be Coleman himself is wrong.

LMHF#1

Benson and Kahun aren’t tracking to be difference makers.

And the players you mention as success examples were pleasant surprises who benefitted from being in lower-pressure situations. You never, ever want to go into a season relying on players who are at that point in their career. To say it is foolhardy is a massive understatement.

The only player on your list likely to move the needle is Bouchard – who will likely be a #6 Dman next year. Again – low expectations and low pressure. No throwing to the wolves.

Bling

JP broke out playing with McDavid, not playing with Turris.

KY broke out playing with Drai and Nuge, not in the bottom six.

Bear broke out playing with Nurse after Tipp said, “Knock knock.”

How are any of those three “low pressure” situations?

None of those players were “ready” by your definition of ready. They were pleasant surprises, yes, but they were not chopping wood, carrying water, and waxing on and off before Tipp gave them some real linemates.

We’re not talking about 18 or 19 year olds being thrown to the wolves, either. We’re talking about a 23 year old in Benson who has three years of pro experience.

Tatar played his first full season at 22 and scored 39 points in 73 games. He turned 23 that December, btw. His PPG in the AHL was inferior to that of Benson.

Coleman, as I said below, scored 1 goal and 1 assist in 23 games as a 24 year old in his first exposure to NHL action. Kahun scored 12 goals and 19 assists in 56 games in his age 24 season. Benson was a better scorer than Coleman in the A and drafted earlier.

Kahun and Benson are entering what should be the most productive years of their careers, while Coleman and especially Tatar are exiting those years.

There is absolutely a false sense of comfort that comes from signing these types of players.

I am bullish on Kahun and Benson.

Dac189

Puljujarvi was playing fantastic from the start. The issues in those 7 games were more his linemates fault than his own. Tippet noticed his great play and quickly promoted him.

Top notch coaching in this case.

Kahun got his chance mostly with Draisaitl and didn’t show much for it. I’d give him another chance but I don’t expect him to turn into a great 2LW.

LMHF#1

I see we’re just flat out revising history now. Brutal.

JimmyV1965

Are there any successful teams that don’t add players from outside the organization? The Islanders maybe. Ideally, you don’t want to do it through free agency, but this is a very unique, temporary period in the NHL where it makes sense to sign UFAs. Still think Holland needs to make a trade to bring in a real top six forward. 

OriginalPouzar

Isles have brought in Eberle, Pageau, Clutterbuck, Palmeri, etc. from outside the org.

JimmyV1965

There you go.

Sierra

The Islanders most certainly have brought in players from outside. Just off the top of my head – Varlamov, Palmieri, Zajac, Eberle

koskidaddy

When your best additions are just graduating players, there’s something wrong. We got swept in the 1st round and lost in 4 to the 23rd seed before that. Something needs to change.

Sierra

Benson would have been a difference maker!

Scungilli Slushy

Hall is the last thing the Oilers need, if playoff success is the goal.

They already have two far better players doing what he does.

godot10

The Oilers have zero left wings if Nugent-Hopkins signs somewhere else.

knighttown

The Trotzification of hockey is just about complete. The Islanders are in competition with Tampa as the team of the early 20’s and with Montréal using the same template to incredible effect the die is cast. The Canadiens had one less loss than the Canucks and The Sens and the same as the Coyotes. The Isles needed a Rangers implosion in the last week of the season to secure their spot. 12th and 18th in the NHL land into the final 4.

The pundits will call it an amazing Cinderella story but is it special if it happens every damn year?

McDavid, Drai, Nurse (~29 M) vs Danault, Pageau, Lowry, Appleton, Chiarot, Pelech, Petry, Mayfield (est. similar) get swept every year guaranteed.

Bling

Montreal went through Toronto minus Tavares and Winnipeg minus Scheifele.

Winnipeg’s goalie had a .950+ save percentage in the first round versus the Oilers. The Oilers were always going to be susceptible to an upset given the lack of scoring depth.

No home ice advantage (no fans) for the top seeds in the North was also a factor.

The Islanders are a Trotz team but they have Barzal and 6 other guys who were scoring at a 20+ goal pace. That doesn’t include Josh Bailey, so that’s actually 8 pretty good forwards. The Bruins are an aging team.

Dac189

You’re just comparing Edmonton’s most expensive contracts to other teams value contracts.

You could do the same with Edmonton.

Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, Bear, Smith. 6 million

Shea Weber 7 million
Carey Price 10.5 million
Lee Anders 7 million
Blake Wheeler 8 million

Gerta Rauss

You wanted some content for your show LT – ladies and gentleman, Devin Shore…!

Glovjuice

The new Deafheaven single released today. Amazing track. Sorry, OP. About the music content.

But, yeah. Caleb Jones is not Seth Jones (or Theodore). LOL. That’s funny. Caleb doesn’t even play every game. Hilarious.

Rebuildwhatrebuild

Devin Shore!!!!

Reja

Sure looks like Rask last game in a Bruins uniform is a stinker.

fishman

Yep!

leadfarmer

Wonder what Hall does?

OriginalPouzar

I’ll take him at 1 year, $5M

jtblack

He doesnt seem to score they paying him as checking winger?

Gerta Rauss

7 days ago I was certain Hall was going to sign with BOS

Now, not so much

Interesting

Glovjuice

Doesn’t Rask do this EVERY year ?

leadfarmer

Doesn’t help when Bruins can’t hit open nets

fishman

Bruins look done….

jtblack

Hallsy put up 1G 1A in last 7 games

He is not really considered great defensive? Not overly physical? So whats he paid for?

I know. I know. He saws off the corsi and doesnt hurt the team. But wasn’t BOS hoping for more than a neutral player?

Last edited 4 months ago by jtblack
defmn

I didn’t see every game of this series but I watched a fair amount. Still haven’t seen Hall win a board battle. That doesn’t scream Boston material to me.

Reg Dunlop

Things are slowly improving with Hallsey. First a coach killer and locker room cancer, now a non-factor. Could be a Kyle Turris type acquisition on a PTO in a few years. Of course, all the Hall fetishists here will Taylorgasm at the prospect.

TheGreatBigMac

The goal was an empty net too, maybe Hall really has slowed down.

Reja

Dobson who is nowhere near as good of a puck handler as Bouchard is on PP1. Meanwhile Evan got to play lots of video games while watching his team lose from the bleachers.

OriginalPouzar

Which is what Dobson did last season.

Bouch will be fine with his development and will play every day next season

Harpers Hair

Except Dobson was drafted after Bouchard and has 80 games of EXPERIENCE in the NHL with a good team.

OriginalPouzar

“Drafted after” – nice spin. Their draft pedigree is identical.

In Dobson’s rookie season and first year of his ELC, he watched and played video games as much as he played. Seems to be doing fine in his second year of his ELC, as Bouchard will do next season.

Imagine, citing Tyler Madden and Lias Andersson as blue chips while tearing down Evan Bouchard. Its wild stuff.

jp

Bouchard was wandering the dusty streets of Bakersfield.

Ah, the AHL.

What are all those Kings blue chippers doing playing there then?

Scungilli Slushy

You must have been a joy to work for or with.

I enjoy reading the info you pull off your feeds and post, I think your hockey opinions are crap, and I think you’re online persona is at best described as asshole.

Have a good evening HH

Reja

Bouchard should of been playing all year but apparently there was no room for him. Instead we got to see the Jets target Barrie’s and especially Bear’s corner which resulted in turnovers for devastating goals.

DevilsLettuce

If the refs called a skilled game of hockey the Jets would of had to play off body instead of horse collar hockey.

Everything would of been different, doesn’t matter which skilled defender is dressed. They would have definitely targeted a rookie D in the corner, Bouch would of had his cough ups.

Reja

At least we got to see Scheifele sniffle about his suspension tonight.

greenshifter

Give it a rest

jtblack

I think Barzal, Beauvillier and Eberle are on PP1 too 🤓

DevilsLettuce

What I’m reading from this is that the Islanders will sign Barrie.

If Bouchard isn’t 1st in points by a defender, he will be a failure.

Whatever Harper is shitting out of his mouth is nonsense.

Trotz is a hell of a coach, the Islanders should consider changing their name to the Saints.

Bling

Here’s a question: do you really need to add two top 6 LW?

I vote no.

Holloway is coming, and at most I feel the wait is going to be one season. You have to see if Benson can give you something, so let’s not give him the Lander treatment. Kahun is going to give you ~15 goals / 82 GP for peanuts with no PP time. Suspect Nuge’s EV scoring will come back.

By the way, Blake Coleman wasn’t Blake Coleman until his age 25 season.

Benson – Age 23
Kahun – Age 25

Coleman scored 1+1 (NHL, 23 GP) in his age 24 season and was a lesser scorer than Benson as an AHLer. Kahun’s trajectory is much higher than Coleman’s.

I would rather bet on Benson and Kahun — and the impending addition of Holloway, who will be better than all three — than sign Coleman to a deal that may be regrettable as early as year 2.

When Holloway arrives, you can think about shifting Nuge to 3C and adding some real length to the lineup. If Nuge makes 6 mil and can anchor a dominant third line while developing the young guys, that’s money well spent.

OriginalPouzar

There is value in targeting Tatar – his production has been all over the place in his career but its clear he’s coming off a down year. I would kick the tires on him being this year’s “Barrie” – one year deal at reasonable money to try and establish value playing with McDavid/Drai.

jtblack

1000%.

Edm has been waiting for prospects for 15 years. And some have Landed ; but not all will. NEED NHL help today. And Tatar can provode that while we find out what Holloway and Benson might be

Sierra

Yup…the next prospect is always the saviour.

JOFA

Benson is the missing piece for many😉

Bling

Not all prospects cash, but chasing UFAs does not always work out either.

Psychologically, a manager can feel better (fans too) about signing a big name free agent, but you are trading one type of risk for another. Tatar is not on the front 9 of his career. Coleman is a good player who will be looking to get paid but, pedigree wise, was a lesser player than both Kahun and Benson at the same age.

Giving Benson a real shot at age 23 after three years in the AHL is a very different scenario than asking Sam Gagner to be a top two line C at age 18.

Bling

My concern is this: you signed Barrie for one year and for sure that limited Bouchard’s development. Bouchard was ready to be a full-time regular this season, no question about it.

You say, well, it’s only one year and Bouchard will be fine.

How about the second order effects of what could have been an good-to-excellent Bouchard rookie season? Suddenly, Holland has greater leverage with Larsson (perhaps not needing to sign him, or being less desperate to do so). Even if he decided, in this hypothetical scenario, to bring Larsson back, there is greater clarity in having the idea that Bouchard is on track to be a top 4 or top pairing D. Undoubtedly the team is in a better position heading into the off-season and next year.

The Barrie example at forward could have similar stagnating effects on Benson and others.

This is the general organizational equivalent of refusing to give your junior employees real opportunities, and opting instead for a rotating cast of “experienced” mercenary types. For sure those people have a role! But it cannot be at the expense of developing talent.

You need some of these second round and later picks to cash. Part of that is giving the guys who are ready the opportunity. Benson’s time is now, IMO. Bouchard’s time was yesterday.

4th line is no place for Benson, unless we want to run the Anton Lander experiment again.

OriginalPouzar

It was a 100% requirement to sign/acquire a legit established right shot D this off-season. I was fine with Bouchard being penciled in as 3RD to start the season but there needed to be some competition, depth and cover with Benning gone.

There was no way they could go in to the season one injury away from Bouchard in the top 4 and Kris Russell as 3RD – they needed depth.

I anticipated it to be more of a depth acquisition but the opportunity arose for legit high end offensive guy at a value price so Holland signed it – he would have been silly not to.

It wasn’t reasonable to project the 3 established right shot D would miss an aggregate total of 11 games due to injury. The signing ended up blocking Bouchard but really only due to the “good” fortune of the right side D depth being so healthy.

Bling

Benning (whom I loved while here) played on the third pairing. Benning out and Bouchard in made perfect sense. Barrie was not brought in to shore up the right side; Barrie was brought in to replace Klefbom, despite playing on the other side.

Your nightmare scenario of Russell playing many games did come to fruition, it’s just that he played most of those games on the left side. I would argue that a better option would have been a legit top 4 LHD to slot in behind Nurse, ie a “true” replacement for Klefbom.

That would have allowed for Jones to play on the third pairing, Bear on the first (where he played well last season and was entrusted in key defensive situations this season), and Bouchard on the third pairing. Barrie had a wonderful year by the boxcars and was a significant contributor to the powerplay. By WAR, he was a lesser contributor than both Nurse and Larsson, and it wasn’t close.

Jones struggled and may not be protected, and Bear was a healthy scratch at times (and benched during the playoffs) despite having a year not too far off of Larsson’s, by the underlying numbers.

Looking at Barrie in isolation of the cascade of events that followed isn’t a true representation of the totality of what actually transpired.

Last edited 4 months ago by Bling
OriginalPouzar

I stand by my opinion that a 4th right shot D was imperative (and I stated it prior to the Barrie signing many many times).

Yes, as I said, Bouchard in for Benning at 3RD would have been just fine but there needed to be depth and injury cover (and poor play cover). The team would have been one injury away from the following right side:

Larsson
Bouchard
Russell

No, my nightmare didn’t come true – it wasn’t Russell playing, it was Russell playing on the right side.

As I said, the right side acquisition didn’t need to be as material as Barrie, I was looking for more of a depth guy. At the same time, given the Barrie on a value contract presented itself, that was something Holland had to jump at.

Yes, a more legit 2LD replacement and a “Ron Hainsey” type 4RD would have worked but the Barrie-opportunity couldn’t be walked away from, in my opinion.

JOFA

Yes..Benson deserves to be in the top six😉

Scungilli Slushy

He gets scratched in the playoffs.

He doesn’t like the physical game that is needed when the scoring and moving areas are clogged.

That is exactly the opposite of what the Oilers need.

OriginalPouzar

Sounds like a description of Ryan McLeod, should he be moved?

Sierra

Who are you referring to? Hainsey? Russell? Barrie? Bouchard?

JOFA

Someone is drinking the silly juice 😄

JimmyV1965

Relying on young guys to fill scoring roles IMO does not put them in a position to succeed. Benson will get a shot in the bottom six and then he can work himself up the lineup.

OriginalPouzar

I don’t know if I agree with this as a blanket statement – lots of offensive minded prospects get put in to offensive positions and flourish. Many don’t need to start in the bottom six and work their way up and, frankly, many don’t have the skill-sets to play bottom six type minutes.

I would love Benson to get a real shot with talent in camp and exhibition but he does have a skill set that could work in the “middle six” – I don’t want him on the 4th line necessarily but on a 3rd line with some other skill to start wouldn’t be awful.

Scungilli Slushy

The difference is who got the plot and put on the muscle needed for the NHL?

Benson is skinny, as is Nuge.

Board battle all you want against players who if average weight for forwards are 15 lbs heavier at Benson’s 190, if that is true. Nuge is still that at best.

I said after Connor’s first year if he developed a shot he’d be unstoppable, he did that. He now is, reg season.

This summer I say he needs 10 pounds. He knows he can’t rush at will, especially playoffs.

The strength will give him the confidence for the next step, even if it slows him a bit.

He can’t dominate rushing anyways. The teams as they do have a plan to stop that.

He may get faster with more strength, and he has another summer to train fully. But he has to have low play in his arsenal now, I think he gets that, I know he’s disappointed enough to think widely about it.

Nuge said he would work on his skating and shot. Nice. After nine years or whatever of not having an explosive gear, and muffin shot. Proved over years by weak 5v5 scoring.

If you are smaller, you have to be fast and have above average ability to score, or an effective mini pit bull, the rarest of all ,or you are being carried, not a strong contributor. When it counts.

McSorley33

Well, we have gone from cornering the market on 7th Dmen to cornering the market on 12th / 13th forwards.

Progress?

Bling

I would like to hold onto Jones.

He has played a total of 93 regular season NHL games and is 24. Even highly touted guys like Klef and Nurse struggled their first three seasons, only to break out at around the same age that Jones is now.

Yes Jones had some trying moments this season, but there were also glimmers of promise. His underlying numbers have been fine for over a full calendar year now, though the error rate crept up (subjectively) this past season.

To address DNB’s article: it’s fine that there is an organizational surplus of LHD on the way, but Samorukov is coming off a major injury and Broberg, should he follow the exact same development path as Klefbom, will play more than half his season in the AHL. Again, Klef was not effective until around age 23. The other guys, let’s face it, are long shots.

There is no Bouchard equivalent amongst LHD prospects for this coming season. Klef is a giant question mark and even if you are counting on him, you can’t reasonably count on him to be an effective top 4 D coming back.

So if you lose Jones, you need somebody. A lot of those somebodies (UFA-wise) have question marks in their games without the upside of Jones.

It’s hard to fathom that someone like Archibald (who is a good player and good PK guy) is more important to protect than a guy who played top 4 minutes two seasons ago and could very well do so next season. Or someone like Kassian, who scored as many points as Turris in the same number of regular season games played.

The worst possible thing that could happen in keeping Jones is what? He gets passed by Klefbom or Samorukov? Fine. If he struggles again next year, I think you have your answer on him.

Right now his story as a prospect is incomplete. 

Wonder Llama

Not a word out of place, imo.

It’s easy to get impatient with Jones (and Bear) but let’s not.

I agree to only a slightly lesser extent with your similar thoughts on LW youth. I think Oilers need one top six and one middle-range LW.

If the UFA market were a Wal-Mart Zellers, I’d put Saad and Armia in my cart.

pts2pndr

The reality is it would be foolish to protect Jones as the fourth D and go four and four. This is particularly true when Jones was not able to lock down a top four D when given the opportunity to do so. The playoffs have shown that you need big defensively sound players. Jones doesn’t have the requisite size to play physical nor the defensive awareness. While he may become more defensively aware he isn’t going to grow or play a more physical game. After you get to watch one year of Samorukov it will become more clear why Holland is doing what he is doing.

defmn

Agreed. And I have been a big Jones supporter for years now.

Wilde

Anyone mention the Palat NTC? He’s on my list of players that I love who won’t love us back, with Killorn and Labanc. =[

leadfarmer

Drew Shore had a 5.31 Short handed GA per 60
in case you are wondering why he was signed.

OriginalPouzar

He was also somewhat dangerous offensively on the PK – moreso than at evens – Devon Shore that is.

Scungilli Slushy

Nuge and Danault strike me as similar.

To me Nuge’s role that helps the Oilers is as a Danault type shut down C, PK’r, or teaching and backing up emerging wingers like Holloway for a bit.

That means appropriate cap unfortunately.

LMHF#1

I like the player – I hate prioritizing bottom 6 players this early. Even at that low cost.

godot10

The contract has no effect on the available cap space. All it does is use one of 50 contracts.

It is not prioritization. It does not impact any consequential move. Getting the busy work out of the way that can be gotten out of the way is smart time management by Holland.

LMHF#1

There is no reason to decide on your bottom of the roster players before the season starts.

Every single year there are better players than this available right up until the last minute. Sign *them*. Not random preferred guy #2.

Again – I say this as a fan of Shore.

OriginalPouzar

And they can still sign those players and have them come to camp and compete with Shore for a roster spot. Shore is not guaranteed a roster spot. All this does is guarantee Katz pays some money, Shore makes some money and has a training camp spot.

OriginalPouzar

$75K over league minimum and fully buryable.

He can compete with the likes of Benson, Kahun (hopefully), Holloway, Khaira for a 4LW spot.

People will bitch given his “mainstream analytics” but its a no-risk move.

Harpers Hair

You can never have enough 4LW players now that they’ve done away with waivers.

Harpers Hair

Weebo (@OilersPain) Tweeted:
Why complain about an $850k contract?

Because EDM doesn’t sign Shore unless they’re ignoring data entirely in favour of gut feeling 

Occasionally that will work, and hopefully it does with Shore, but it’s a losing strategy and a stupid process

https://twitter.com/OilersPain/status/1402778750824026114?s=20

OriginalPouzar

Random tweets from Oilers fans – why are those posted?

That account does nothing but post negative opinions on the Oilers – its insufferable – likely an HH burner account

buck yoakam

who are going to the prom with archie?

Bling

I don’t mind Shore and it sounds like he is being seen as a candidate for an extra-forward spot. Fine by me.

I’d rather see Holloway light up the AHL and take the Tippett express to a top 6 spot, the way JP and KY did.

Benson and Kahun I want as bottom six guys. I think both are solid bets for 10ish goals.

defmn

Agreed. Perfect 13th/14th forward or down to the farm to mentor.

JOFA

Or a top 6 forward in an elimination game. Such an unnecessary signing. Two years? Kenny is a tough negotiator haha.

#kennysagrinder😉

jp

Benson and Kahun I want as bottom six guys. I think both are solid bets for 10ish goals.

Devin Shore is a 10 goal guy. Did it 3 of 3 seasons he played a full slate.

Was on pace for 10 this year too.

I don’t mind him either.

Last edited 4 months ago by jp
dunterpunter

I’m not sure you can call this a no risk move, due to the inherit risk of a better player being available for the same price, without a 2 year contract.

The upcoming years are where league min contracts are going to be in excess due to cap restrictions.

Why didn’t the Oilers do 1 year, and see if there’s availability the year after if they really like him?

This is a red wine room move. God damnit I hope they drank 18yr, even if it is Kirkland (no hate on Kirkland 18yr).

OriginalPouzar

This signing does no limit the Oilers ability to acquire a better player if available.

The contract can be buried at a cap hit of $0.

The only risk is it takes up one of 50 contract spots, a nominal risk.

koskidaddy

Devin Shore was one of the worst forwards in the entire NHL this year. He got outscored 17-9 when he was on the ice at 5v5, and had just a 39 CF% and 41 xGF%. There is no reason he should be getting a two year extension. He’s simply not an NHL caliber player.

McSorley33

Tipp loves him, though.

Harpers Hair

Gotta lock in your Sea Of Granlunds early.

It’s not like this is the offseason where some talented players are going to be available at bargain prices.

leadfarmer

I would love to get Mikael Granlund

OriginalPouzar

and signing Devon Shore doesn’t limit the ability to sing any talented players at bargain prices a single iota.

Harpers Hair

No as long as Katz wants to keep paying slugs who don’t help at all.

But it does speak to how the GM values players and the absolute disregard for evidence-based decision making.

I think the Summer Of Kenny is going to be a doozy.

JOFA

Agreed! Get your popcorn😅

OriginalPouzar

Katz is a great owner as far as spending money goes and I thank him for his willingness to spend for depth – happy to have Shore as a 12th-15th forward next season.

You think a lot of things are going to happen – almost always wrong – evidence based statement.

buck yoakam

you have really nice sandals…

pts2pndr

He believes he walks on water and cure us poor sick Oiler fans. He can not understand why we are so ungrateful and refuse to worship at his altar!😇

jp

Gotta lock in your Sea Of Granlunds early.

At least they’re not locked in for $3M x 3 like your boy Jim Benning has done.

flyfish1168

How does this signing affect the Kraken draft?

OriginalPouzar

It doesn’t unless the Kraken decide to take the exposed Shore.

JOFA

No chance. Kenny will be protecting Shore and Benson😉

JimmyV1965

Oiler fans are very passionate. I believe Holland specifically mentioned that Shore was a team guy, willing to do whatever is needed. If that means sitting that means sitting.

Leroy Draisdale

Shore, 2 yr extension 850K AAV

OriginalPouzar

$75K over league minimum and fully buryable.

He can compete with the likes of Benson, Kahun (hopefully), Holloway, Khaira for a 4LW spot.

People will bitch given his “mainstream analytics” but its a no-risk move.

leadfarmer

If Klef unlikely to be healthy and we are protecting Bear and Nurse I sure hope we trade for a decent defensemen someone doesn’t want to lose for free.
Seattle can have their pick of Lagesson Jones Kassian Klef (if shoulder still iffy)

Wonder Llama

I would do a little llama happy dance if Seattle actually took Kassian without conditions.

OriginalPouzar

Yup, I think the organization does value what he can bring but I would anticipate that Tippett (and Holland) is/are frustrated that he rarely brings what he can (in the last 14 months).

I’ve got to think that management knows how much of an overpay the contract is and, notwithstanding they could use what he “can bring”, the contract is a partial anchor and, if there is a free path out, they need to make it happen.

I know Nugent-Bomman suggested he’s a protection candidate and I truly hope that info is incorrect.

Scungilli Slushy

Kassian has his flaws, but in the last two games was one of the best Oiler forwards to my eye.

Ue actually makes an impact on the game in the playoffs. He isn’t ideal but can play up the lineup, he’s done it.

He had an off reg season but still has his skating. He might rebound to a more consistent player. He also means Nurse isn’t the only heavy. I don’t want Nurse fighting unless absolutely necessary.

It’s more than scoring. The Oilers roster is littered with players that do nothing at all in many games, especially playoffs.

They float around the perimeter, the opponent pays no attention to them because they aren’t a physical worry and don’t go to the scoring area.

They can’t shoot and many are average skaters.

His contract is too high, but it’s not a killer.

Neal is a killer. Koski because he’s not trusted by the coach and team.

The plethora of perimeter small non shooting guys. I so hope none are back.

Bigger fish to fry.

OriginalPouzar

Kass was quite good in game 3 of the playoffs but just Ok in game 4 – to my eye. Of course he was not good at all in the first two games or really in any game in the regular season, the play-in last season or down the stretch last regular season.

He can be an impactful player in a positive way but hasn’t been for a long time now (one playoff game does not alter the 14 months that pre-dated it) and for those 14 months, he was one of those players that did nothing – floated around the perimeter, wasn’t physical, couldn’t shoot, etc.

Given he doesn’t PK and isn’t. a good 2-way player, he often hurt the team when in the lineup.

He had like 2 shot attempts over a 10 plus game stretch last year – attempts, not shots.

pts2pndr

I think Holland is planning on signing Larsson ahead of the expansion draft.

JOFA

Of course he will. An overpay is just around the corner.

Last edited 4 months ago by JOFA
jp

Holland really should do this (if he’s not signing Larsson and Nuge early).

No idea about Nuge, but I got the impression Larsson felt pretty comfortable about things. I feel like he and Holland would trust each other enough to do a handshake deal till after the draft if there was a good reason.

SwedishPoster

Never been a fan of Nemeth, got the size and strength, knows how to defend and PK. But puckhandling, passing and lateral mobility are issues. He’s a more polished more veteran Lagesson really, depth D-man, you know what you get most nights. Can look reasonable statistically with the right partner in the right matchups but no ability to elevate his game. Hope he’s not who they target.

gregsaint

Thought: the NHLPA should push to get income-tax on salaries cap exempt. At the very least state income tax should be exempt and possibly federal/national as well.

The NHL currently claims to desire parity but the teams from states with no income tax have a significant cap advantage over other teams. I believe Edmonton falls into the ‘disadvantaged’ category as well.

leadfarmer

But that’s the places the league is trying to grow the game. Doubt they do this

godot10
gregsaint

Impossible is a silly word to use. How about “kinda hard”
I’m sure some creative accountants could figure out a way to make it work. But sure, dismiss the idea out of hand, smartest guy in the room.

Dac189

Kind of curious what the opinion is regarding the Tampa Bay Lightning.
If they do end up winning the Stanley Cup, is that not a bit of a black mark on the league?
Does mention of the win always get followed by a “yeah, but…”
Or is it not a big deal at all?
Do we see a playoff cap limit introduced in the future?

Oddspell

I don’t see how it would be a black mark.

The Lightning played within the rules. I don’t see how this is any different than Toronto’s LTIR acrobatics or using intermediary teams to retain salary. It’s creative problem solving within the constraints of the rules. A bit like taking a hooking penalty to prevent a breakaway. The Lightning paid the price (not having their two stars for the regular season) and it worked out for them.

Unless you think it’s a black mark on a Stanley Cup to violate the spirit of the salary cap… but I don’t think any team does.

Genjutsu

Did they play within the system? We’re their players unfit to play until the playoffs started?

I suppose it’s possible, but from here it looks like they deliberately circumvented the cap.

Will the NHL punish a successful team in a critical Florida market? Probably not.

Redbird62

The only issue in doubt was whether Kucherov was healthy enough to play before the end of the regular season (or Stamkos for that matter). Technically if a player is deemed fit to play, they have to be returned to the active roster immediately. If he could have played in late April, but Tampa and he agreed that he would continue to “need” rehab all the way till the regular season was over before he could play again, that would actually be against the rules and not just the spirit of the CBA thus allowing them to stay under the cap for the regular season and get to ice a $98 million roster for the playoffs. Some would consider it suspicious that a player going for surgery in late December returns to full health exactly when the first game of the playoffs started 5 months later especially when he started skating in early March. I doubt the NHL bothers to investigate this either way though.

leadfarmer

I don’t see why teams don’t have to submit a cap compliant roster for the playoffs the day before playoffs start. Not cap compliant can’t play

godot10

Chicago did the same thing one season with Kane, when they put him on LTIR before the trade deadline, and loaded up.

Toronto has used the accumulation of injured players and LTIR to become cap compliant.

Dac189

Where I currently stand on this.

The GM planned his roster around Kucherov not being available during the regular season. This meant that it was pretty much impossible to take Kuch off of LTIR halfway through the season.

At this point we can only speculate but:
If the playoffs had started a month earlier or a month later.
I still think his first game back is game 1 of the playoffs.
They had no choice but to start him in the playoffs.

Just seems like they got away with it. They’re favorites for the cup in large part due to it.

OriginalPouzar

He planned his roster around Kucherov being on LTIR for the entire season because that was the way he was able to keep the team together and not gut it. They were so far over the cap they were going to have to give up legit good players and pay legit prices to dispose of others.

jtblack

Smart team that circumvented a League rule? Wish KH could get over the NHL on something like that.

JEALOUS fans will wag their finger, but Tampa simply played by the NHL’s silly rule and won (is winning). $17 mil over Cap and cruisin’

flyfish1168

Adam Fox is good but Darnell I feel would a more worthy candidate for the Norris. I want to believe between the 2 players most GM would take Nurse over Fox. I don’t believe more Oilre glasses are on too tight here.

leadfarmer

I don’t think anyone outside of Edmonton would take Nurse over Fox and that’s no slight to Nurse

Sierra

Agreed

Glovjuice

If in back to back expansion drafts we only lose Reinhart and only lose Jones (yes, only. Jones is overrated by most here) we should be counting our lucky stars.

Harpers Hair

Seattle will likely agree with you.

They will be drafting some free agents and simply walking away to preserve cap space for more significant signings.

Jones may well be one of those.

koskidaddy

When Jones becomes the next Shea Theodore, people will regret losing him for nothing.

OriginalPouzar

Caleb is better than Seth, right?

leadfarmer

Jones is a 3rd pairing left D that we have a ton of. The likelihood that he becomes Theodore is almost none

Material Elvis

Why stop there? Why not Bobby Orr or Nik Lidstrom?

McSorley33

Prior to this season – heard that all the time about Darnell Nurse.

The nurse fan club was Godot, myself and a couple of other guys and we met in a phone booth.

Nobody is curious at all what Caleb would look like after 250 NHL games played?

Took Darnell 350 games to get to this level we saw.

It took time for the game to slow down for Darnell. There is a strong chance the same happens for Caleb.

Side

Nurse is also bigger though with a longer reach, can skate like the wind and has always had a pretty good gas tank from what I can recall.

I am curious to see what Caleb will become but I don’t think he can be another Nurse.

McSorley33

Agreed.

Only meant to compare them in it takes some players -more so D – longer to develop.

It would hav been silly to make a call on Nurse after only 80 games or so…..not sure why so many are eager to make a call, right now, on Jones.

Not saying Jones is going to be elite …..just saying I want him to get way more at bats in an Oilers uniform before we decide anything.

kelvjn

Nurse played a ton this past season but that is not as much because he dominanted (a la CFP) than the lack of alternatives in the fabled mediocre leftorium.

Like the other mere mortal defensemen Nurse is still susceptible to the odd brain cramp once in every few games.

Expect a major down turn (from 0.64p/g or 53point/82 games pace) in production(to 40~45p/82 games) next year having to play with Bear or Bouchard instead of the 0.86p/g (70p/82 games pace) Barrie.

It is just as well though because that might keep Nurse’s next contract down.

godot10

Holland will almost certainly sign Nurse this summer. It would be foolish to let him play as a pending UFA.

Redbird62

I too have been a big Nurse fan since he was drafted. Caleb Jones is not in the same category as Nurse (or Theodore for that matter). Caleb Jones just celebrated his 24th birthday and still isn’t an NHL regular on a team with openings on the left side and a coach willing to play inexperienced D who play responsibly. Nurse became an NHL regular at 20. In the season leading up to Nurse’s 24th birthday (18/19) (ie. comparable to the one Jones just completed) Nurse was playing his 4th season, played 24 minutes a night and scored 41 points filling in a lot for Klefbom who missed 21 games. Opportunity knocked for Jones this past season, just like it did last season for Bear, but Jones did not seize the day. Right now, Jones is still fighting to have a decent career as a 5/6 defenseman, with a 3/4 pairing being a distant upside, but the clock is ticking.

McSorley33

Yes, Nurse was picked the top of the first round and Caleb was a 4th round pick,

My comparison to Nurse was about development time.

Caleb Jones has only played 90 games. That’s 1 season in the NHL.

Nurse was a very different player at game 70 vs game 300 was/is my point.

It’s not just Hitchcock that saw some elite skills in Jones.

Again, to be clear, I am not presenting Jones as a sure fire thing.

i want more time to see him.

Both Bouchard and Jones have made passes this year that Nurse, Klefbom or Larsson would even attempt.

OriginalPouzar

I too would like to see more of Jones. He is indeed still developing and likely improving.

At the same time, comparisons to Nurse can be useful in that they prove that d-men can and do improve well in to their mid-20s, however, on the other hand, the Nurse comparison isn’t great. Nurse was a higher pedigree player that arrived years earlier than Jones. Nurse’s 70 game mark was at, what, 21? Not 24.

Jones should improve for a few years yet but his ceiling is nowhere near that of Nure – in my opinion.

Glovjuice

Check out the multiple comment thread started by the Glovjuice.

irule.

koskidaddy

To be honest, I’m not a fan of signing Larsson for that much term. 2 years would be the most I would go, maybe even 3.

He has a history of back issues and had poor results for the last 2 seasons prior to this one.

Also that goaltending…bringing back 40 year old Mike Smith and Mikko Koskinen does not seem like a good idea. If Smith falters, the season will be pretty much overall because we all know how much Holland loves staying in his cabin and doing almost nothing to improve the team.

Sierra

Betting on a repeat performance from Smith is dangerous.

ArmchairGM

Yup. I have no problem bringing Smith back (if the price is right) if the other goalie is Ullmark or Kuemper, but not if Koskinen is still the 1B. And I think Koskinen is a decent 1B.

Sierra

Holland should be goalie shopping this offseason. Otherwise he is forced to do something next offseason when Mikko’s and, presumably, Smith’s contracts both expire.

if he”s keeping Smith then I want to see his partner goalie to be someone who is here beyond next season, which is not Mikko.

Last edited 4 months ago by Sierra
godot10

After next year, the Oilers will have three options for the backup, Skinner, Konovalev, and Rodrique. I’m fine with Koskinen as the backup this year. I am not opposed to trading him (with salary retained if necessary) I am opposed to a buyout.

I don’t really want to sign a new backup for two years. I want Skinner and Konovalev seeing the opportunity for next year, and slugging it out in Bakersfield.

Sierra

Nobody said anything about signing a backup, but since you went there, Holland should not be trying to obtain a backup per se; he should be upgrading his goaltending and ideally finding a true No.1 goalie.

OriginalPouzar

We are generally agreed – as i’ve posted recently, we will know a lot more about our 3 goalie prospects in one year, in particular Skinner and Konovalov.

I am fine pushing that can down the road by one year (while acknowledging the risk).

I would prefer Stalock as the back-up to Mikko based on:

1) better career numbers (marginally)
2) better puck-handler which will help the team play the same game as with Smith
3) the relationship is not toxic (like Mikko is with the fans and maybe with the coach, that I don’t know).

Of course, Mikko’s contract is a thing.

McSorley33

Agreed.

Yet we all know the bet will be placed….

godot10

Smith is less risky this year than last year. One year deal only though. He modified his regime to try to stay in the league and it was successful.

McSorley33

Half a season though

meanashell11

This is not correct. Larsson does not have a history of back trouble and was only really under performing after his father died.

OriginalPouzar

meanashell11

 Reply to koskidaddy

 June 9, 2021 2:07 pm

This is not correct. Larsson does not have a history of back trouble and was only really under performing after his father died.

100% and thank you – I thought I was the only one that thinks this verbal re: chronic back injuries highly over-stated. He missed 2-3 weeks a few years back and then 2 games in the play-in. His only other injury was a broken bone from blocking a shot – he’s been durable generally.

He was awesome his first year in Edmonton and struggled for a while after his dad died (same year as the back injury) but he is back to 2017 Larsson and should be that player for 2-4 more years prior to regression – he’s 28, that’s it, 28. He’s priming for the next few years.

godot10

I am willing to make the bet that Adam Larsson is the next James Patrick…#3RD for a long time on Ruff’s Buffalo team. James Patrick ran a finishing school for rookie D in Buffalo for years on the third pair. Patrick could play up the roster in a pinch, and could PK, while bringing physicality.

Last edited 4 months ago by godot10
meanashell11

Agree with this.

jtblack

KH will lock him up for 4 or 5

Sir_McJesus

Is there any chance we’re better off without a 6 mill Nuge in our top 6 next season? Offer Nuge 3rd line center money and a chance to stay with the boys and play for a contender. If he bails for the Kraken we have 6 mill to pay an elite goalie and another top 6 forward.

Last edited 4 months ago by Sir_McJesus
koskidaddy

Yes, let’s not re-sign one of our best wingers simply because his oiSh% has been low this season. That sounds like a terrific idea.

Sir_McJesus

You might be over rating Nuge. His EV point production is a sign.

koskidaddy

Due to his lowest oiSh% in almost 4 years. His xGF/60, CF/60, and SF/60 all improved this season from 19-20. He was generating more changes and just got unlucky.

McSorley33

Rotten luck for poor Ryan.

McSorley33

Talk to Kenny.

It sure looks like both RNH and Adam are going to hit the free agency market.

You never know if a crazy GM is trying to stave off being fired.

Material Elvis

Which elite goalie is available?

Ryan

Either way, lots of putdowns online about the current analytics department (I’ve never understood why it’s okay for “smart people” to crap on others, but there are miles of people who claim to be analytics adopters who can’t wait to spit out vile things about Justin Mahé and his brother) and there’s zero doubt the Oilers need to add in this area.

I had shared a few things that I had heard about the Mahe brothers in relation to the Oilers analytics department. I don’t think that anything I wrote could be construed in that category?

Side

Full disclosure. I drove by the Mahe brothers on the street the other day and shouted “NICE SPREADSHEETS, NERDS! VLOOKUP THIS!” and may or may not have given them the middle finger.

Greatness

I don’t know Justin, but I know his parents – two of the nicest people you will ever meet.

YKOil

Picked up from elsewhere, but do not have an attribution (so, apologies), anyways, interesting idea:

What would it take to get Detroit to agree to a trade of:

Neal: $5.75m /year for 2 years, buy-out cost is $1.917m /year for 4 years
… Cap hits of $1.917m /year for 4 years

for

Nielsen: $5.25m on 1 year, buy-out cost is (with signing bonus*) $2.0m year 1 and $500k year 2
… Cap hits of $4.25m in year 1 and $500k in year 2

*signing bonus is $1.5m

Difference in total buy-out cost: Neal = $7.668m and Nielsen = $3.0 million. What would Yzerman want for $4.668m? Is one way to look at it.

Detroit is deep in full-rebuild mode (unlike the Kings who are close to exiting that mode) so this is something Yzerman might look at.

A lot of interesting scenarios open up here, but here are two:

Keeping Nielsen for 1 year and burying him in the minors means a Cap hit of ~ $4.0m
… Cap savings of $1.75m compared to Neal (w/out buy-out) and clean balance sheet in after just one year

Buying out Nielsen means Cap:
… in year 1 w/out buy-out: savings of $1.5m
… in year 2 w/out buy-out: savings of $5.25m

… in year 1 w/ compared to buy-out of Neal: net loss of $2.33m (i.e. not as much saved)
… in year 2 w/ compared to buy-out of Neal: further savings of $1.417m
… in year 3 and 4: further savings of $1.917m

——-

This is a hell of a thing really. Nielsen does have a m-NTC (10 teams) but what would you pay to make this happen (if you wanted)?

I find myself liking both options.

Jones?

2nd round pick?

OriginalPouzar

I don’t think Blake Coleman comes to the Oilers for 3 years at under $4MM per season (although that is the max cap hit I would be comfortable with, and its not fully comfortable).

I would like Blake Coleman on the Oilers roster. I do not think he should be slotted in as a top line winger and, if acquired, I do believe he will be slotted in above his abilities and that is a problem.

I think he will be overpaid and “overplayed”.

I would love Coleman at $3MM to play 2/3 LW but I don’t see that happening.

jtblack

ESA TIKKANEN 2.0

YKOil

I would be fine with Coleman at $4m /year for 3 years.

Would also be fine with $3.25m /year for 5 years.

Even strength production with a physical game and a defensive conscience… all day long.

JimmyV1965

My only concern is Coleman is American. Is he even willing to come to Edmonton? Does it require and overpay? Not at all worried about on-ice production. He’s averaged 20 goals playing with much much worse centres.

Sierra

And not just American, but an American playing in a State with zero personal income tax.

Harpers Hair

Washington State also has no state income tax.

OriginalPouzar

I am far from an “analytics guru” but I appreciate and value the information provided – and the deep dives done by many, in this community and externally.

At the same time I note that “analytics” suggest both Nurse and Seth Jones are poor d-men so I will always stop short of writing off a player completely because of “analytic” if it deviates materially from the eye test.

OriginalPouzar

Those JFresh player cards (or whatever they are) and anything posted by C&B as it relates to Nurse – all his McDavid off numbers, etc.

godot10

The OIlers bottom six sucks. If one looks at data out of context, it becomes nonsense.

koskidaddy

Analytics does not say Nurse is a poor d-man. A little overrated perhaps, but definitely a top 4 defenseman.

On the other hand, Seth Jones has had mediocre to bad results for a while now. Even if you don’t use analytics you can see it. He had a 46.6% goal share this season, far from the elite defenseman that many paint him. He was good in 2017 but has fallen off since then.

godot10

The stuff Gregor posts from SportLogic disagrees with you. Nurse’s consistent even strength scoring over three years disagree’s with you. And with pretty much a different partner every year.

OriginalPouzar

No, its not disagreeing with me.

Its disagreeing with some of the metrics valued by other. I have no idea how to read those “player cards” and the WAR ratings and all that crap but I see lots of posts that rate Nurse and Jones bad in those areas.

That’s not my opinion, i rate both the players very high.

This is kind of the point – different metrics show different things, sometimes that don’t reconcile with each other and almost always that lack context.

jtblack

NURSE on Tampa is the ……. 4th best D man

On VGS??? 3rd or 4th

CAR ? 4th or 5th.

Darnell is Good but he is not near elite. He needs help.

Edm will be competing for a Cup whem Darnell is their 3rd best D man. WE WAIT

godot10

I would say Nurse would be the 2nd best D on Tampa. I’d take Nurse over McDonagh and Sergachev.

OriginalPouzar

I know that Nurse gets plenty of McDavid time but lets not forget that:

1) this year he played with Barrie – noted defensive deficiencies for Nurse to shine and help parlay to the leading point getting in the league

2) last year played top minutes with a raw NHL rookie with good results for both.

Nurse is shiner – he polishes up his partners.

Jaxon

Not top 4 in Tampa? I’d say he’s nearly top 4 in the NHL. I’d have him solidly in the top 8 in the NHL. Nurse’s 5-on-5 stats going back to March of 2017, 304 game sample size:

5-on-5 Pts:
0 Player Total Points
1 John Carlson 126
2 Roman Josi 118
3 Brent Burns 114
4 Darnell Nurse 106

5-on-5 Goals:
0 Player Goals
1 Dougie Hamilton 41
2 Zach Werenski 36
3 John Carlson 35
4 Victor Hedman 34
5 Darnell Nurse 31

5-on-5 shots:
0 Player Shots
1 Brent Burns 741
2 Dougie Hamilton 680
3 Roman Josi 655
4 Darnell Nurse 638

Individual High Danger corsi For:
0 Player iHDCF
1 Zach Werenski 70
2 Brent Burns 68
3 Roman Josi 68
4 Darnell Nurse 66

5-on-5 Rush Attempts:
0 Player Rush Attempts
1 Dougie Hamilton 39
2 Darnell Nurse 28

5-on-5 Hits:
0 Player Hits
1 Radko Gudas 812
2 Nikita Zadorov 802
3 Adam Larsson 746
4 Rasmus Ristolainen 745
5 Mark Borowiecki 718
6 Brenden Dillon 702
7 Robert Hagg 668
8 Brayden McNabb 665
9 Michael Del Zotto 594
10 Darnell Nurse 584

5-on-5 Shots Blocked:
0 Player Shots Blocked
1 Kris Russell 522
2 Alexander Edler 490
3 Alec Martinez 483
4 Andy Greene 476
5 David Savard 466
6 Alex Goligoski 427
7 Darnell Nurse 421
8 Adam Larsson 421

Note that he’s the only player in the top in the offensive categories who is also in the top in hits and blocked shots. We dream of a Pronger-like player returning to the Oilers. I think we have him, and he’s only 26. Personally, I’d sign him for $8.5M x8 to his 34-year-old season if I had to. Hopefully, he signs for less. Again, looking to McDavid and Draisaitl’s next contract, it would be helpful to have Nurse signed for 4 seasons beyond McDavid and 5 beyond Draisaitl to try to convince them to come back for another 4 or 5 seasons minimum. 

Because McDavid/Draisaitl? Well, then you have to say because Stamkos/Kucherov/Point/Killorn/Cirelli/Palat for Hedman and because Ovechkin/Backstrom/Kuznetsov/Oshie/Vrana/Wilson for Carlson, etc.

5-on-5 Goals For by teams in that period (304 games):
Tampa 703 (Hedman had substantially more scoring around him)
Washington 679 (Carlson had substantially more scoring around him)
Nashville 616 (Josi had more scoring around him)
Calgary 603 (Hamilton had about the same when in Calgary)
Edmonton 603
San Jose 602 (Burns had about the same)
Columbus 601 (Werenski had about the same)
Carolina 597 (Hamilton had slightly less scoring in Carolina)

koskidaddy

These are just offensive stats…is offense all that matters for you in a defenseman? Nurse is a great defenseman offensively but the issue lies in his defense.

buck yoakam

Kinda off topic, I have a better feeling about attracting UFA talent to big E now ( ex.Tyson Barrie) as we are not looking like the decade of darkness team we were…even just making the playoffs the last two seasons can help. That is slightly more comforting and might allow us the opportunity to offer less than we used to for UFA’s. This really is Kenny’s summer to show us his plan and support his star players that he really has a plan. Really looking forward to the draft and trade deadline for different reasons than I used to. As always, thanks LT for a quality place for us to go!. Can’t thank you enough for that.

LMHF#1

The player I’d be looking for to play with McDavid is whoever the modern equivalent of 96-97 Andrei Kovalenko would be.

A shooter. Sturdy player. Gets to scoring position and is ready. Doesn’t get knocked off the puck.

The Oilers don’t have this player currently.

Would also be looking for a playmaker for Leon’s LW so he can focus even more on being triggerman. Prime Hemsky would’ve meant a 60-goal Leon.

Reja

I betcha Slepyshev would pot 20 on Connors wing.

Last edited 4 months ago by Reja
LMHF#1

Accurate. Hope they’re still in touch.

Reja

Slepy was never really given any rope compared to some other players. He does have a nice shot and he plays heavy on the puck which is exactly what you need come playoff time.

pts2pndr

Is that an HH bet where you don’t have to pay if you lose?😉

YKOil

I like Coleman, Saad, and Palmieri – in that order – as the top of my list.

Fine with Tatar if other targets gone (especially Saad). Really like Armia cause I am a fan of buzzsaws.

Of course Landeskog, but yeah, not going to happen.

Fearful of the price for Hyman given I am not expecting great production.

Hoffman is fine on a one-year deal if other targets gone.

Galchenyuk. No.

JimmyV1965

A magnificent summer would be somehow landing Coleman and Saad, and retaining RNH. Would be the best forward group since the dynasty days.

OriginalPouzar

They tried to get Slepy to sign this past off-season when his KHL deal expired – he was (and still is) Oilers property. He didn’t sign with the Oilers and then signed for 2-year in Russia.

Slepy cannot sign in the NHL for this season and next off-season he will be a UFA.

I think his Oiler days are over.

leadfarmer

Now Lightning are favorites to win the cup.
As they should have been all along.

Side

I think Lightning winning may be the best outcome at this point.

Maybe it will put their cap situation under more scrutiny by the league.

As long as it’s not Colorado that’ll be fine with me.

If Colorado, with 4 Norris candidates, a Vezina candidate goalie, Mackinnon and Landeskog gets eliminated in the 2nd round, many lols will be had by me.

Sir_McJesus

Don’t forget DSF loses his bet if the Avalanche lose.. lols all around.

leadfarmer

DSF will by typing with a straw in his mouth by the time the bookies get done with him.

Harpers Hair

Meh…I’m playing with house money.

Lets remember Tampa lost in the 1st round the season before they won the cup.

Side

And lets remember that Tampa and Colorado’s situations are not the same so comparing them isn’t relevant at all.

OriginalPouzar

Lets remember that Joe Sakic has been making player decisions for almost a decade and never made it past the 2nd round – his tenure includes some awful seasons, including a generationally bad season, even after multiple top 5 picks int the draft.

meanashell11

Only because you never pay your losses.

Woogie63

Bets I will make, and bets that I will not.

Bets I will make-

Pay more term to RFA/UFA to build a broader more consistent team for the next four Nurse/Driasaitl/McDavid years.

Benson on to 97-13’s line- Very high Hockey IQ, speed is less of an issue as he will win board/cycle battles and get the puck to McDavid to transport. This type of pass first player will help JP grow to a 30 goal scorer.

Kassian on the third line – big, tough, fast, that can score a bit wingers are really hard to find. This guy has to embrace being a 3rd line guy with a role to play.

Trading our 1st round pick for a JT Miller type trade – I vote Kadri if his NTC allows it.

Bets I will not make –

No to a Smith extension- we paid for and got a great year from the AAV. This has nothing to do with his performance next year. I am completely ok if some other team takes that gamble on Smith next year and wins.

No to Nuge above $5×4 – on this team in 2 years he is a 3C or 2LW. I see Ryan Johansen and Matt Duschene, others might see him differently.

Kelfbom completely back to health -Oilers must invest in a QUALITY defenseman that can put up points.

Elgin R

I am with you on the Benson deployment. However, get ready to be slammed by the masses. I put that out on Lowetide last month and was highly criticized.

Or maybe our fellow bloggers have come to recognize their error with respect to this matter!

Last edited 4 months ago by Elgin R
pts2pndr

Keeping Smith for one more year is in my opinion the prudent way to go. I don’t believe last year was a fluke. Smith played smarter. He was also more familiar with many of the Oiler D. His chemistry with the team has value! I also would like to see him stay on with the team to coach our young goalies in the many things he does that helps out the D and changes how aggressive the opponent is able to forecheck.

JimmyV1965

I would give this a + if I knew how to do it.

Harpers Hair

Craig Morgan (@CraigSMorgan) Tweeted:
Per source, more additions to the national broadcast lineup:
ESPN is bringing aboard AJ Mleczko Griswold & Ryan Callahan. 
Turner is bringing aboard Anson Carter.
Also hearing that Kevin Weekes is deep in talks with ESPN.

https://twitter.com/CraigSMorgan/status/1402664097070555144?s=20

Lutefisk

You’re an ex-broadcaster with plenty of opinions. Go for it.

Last edited 4 months ago by Lutefisk
Harpers Hair

Anson Carter and Kevin Weekes are among the best in the game…both very knowledgeable and engaging.

I am not familiar with the others but I fear with the loss of Ferraro, Carter and Weekes that the Canadian talent pool is being hollowed out to a very large degree.

Not too surprising I guess since the US outlets have tremendous resources available to them.

pts2pndr

The reality is that fewer people than ever even watch the intermission. The see no evil speak no evil and toe the company line is at best boring! There has been a decrease and or total elimination of showing controversial calls with the exception of when the call is correct. Truth in broadcasting has been sacrificed at the alter of the NHL company line!

Harpers Hair

These broadcasters will not be limited to intermissions.

pts2pndr

And that is when I use the mute button!

JimmyV1965

I very rarely watch the intermission. They do nothing that’s interesting and their comments are forever predictable. No one ever rocks the boat.

I also think the Gretzky hire is puzzling. Unless he’s done a complete 360, he will be understated and meh. The greatest player in the history of the game does not make the greatest broadcaster. He seems like a very grounded, humble and reasonable person. None of this makes for a good broadcaster.

Last edited 4 months ago by JimmyV1965
Harpers Hair

Not sure how you can critique what you don’t watch.

Kevin Bieksa is providing admirable commentary and Friedman’s segments are always informative.

meanashell11

When I agree with you I acknowledge it. I agree.

Harpers Hair

Andrew Marchand

@AndrewMarchand
·
7m

NEWS: P.K. Subban to ESPN as an NHL analyst, according to a source. He will debut tonight on SportsCenter tonight.

JOFA

Subban is extremely good. Disagree on Carter.

Jordan

Working with big data is a really challenging job. Trying to work with it independently or with one or two people is incredibly time Intensive. Even moreso if your source data isn’t as clean as you need it to be to run your analyses, you then need to create a cleaning and validation process before you run the data through your computations.

Small team analytics and analyses are at a great risk of groupthink and internal biases, because of the lack of possible dissenting voices. This can compound issues on the data outputs if it hasn’t been cleaned properly.

I hope this isn’t an issue for any organization, let alone my beloved Oilers. However, hope won’t address these issues. And when we’re dealing with a black box of analytics for any organization, all we get to judge on are the resultant actions by the organization.

Based on the results and decisions made by this organization and the analysis by members of this community and others in the Oilogosphere, either Analytics are not a priority or they’re pointing in different directions for the Oilers. And I am dissapointed by this. Not because they’re different, but because the perceived results are that the analyses here in our community seem to be panning out better than those of the organization.

I hope results improve, how very that happens.

Go Oilers!

P.S.
Hard to believe that after 6+ years without him, I can’t help but wonder what this team might look like today if they had stuck with a MacT/Nelson combination after the balls dropped in 2015. After clamoring to get away from the BOTB and the DoD, feels very odd to think our last leader in that time might have been the one we needed to go forwards successfully.

Elgin R

Good point on the analytics. We DON’T know what info the guys are passing on to Holland. As you say, what we DO know are the results, and some are questionable (see Turris, Kyle). No sense beating on the Oiler analytics guys without inside knowledge. But we can, and should, question everything Holland does – that is our right as dedicated fans.

Yeti

Dexter Dancs sounds like the lead character in a trashy 80s crime thriller: the flawed detective with no morals who drinks his bourbon straight, chain smokes Havanas, and has a bad habit of sleeping with witnesses. Chase De Leo is the one elusive mastermind criminal who cunningly keeps eluding our hero (while also occasionally sleeping with witnesses). To think we could have drafted them both and put them on the same line.

Last edited 4 months ago by Yeti
Elgin R

Slow clap!

Elgin R

Many pundits and bloggers write about teams ‘weaponizing’ their cap space. Well it is time for Holland to do just that. The Oilers get a good winger and Palat is only a 1-year rental then UFA which is a good thing.

There will be a plethora of really good young UFAs after next season. The back-loaded contracts, combined with the flat cap, have created the perfect storm. Examples of potential (probable) UFAs? after 2021-2022 season.
Brayden Point – $9m QO
Anthony Cirelli – $7.2m QO
Jake Debrusk – $4.85m QO

Holland should spend to the cap this year – but only with 1-year contracts so that he has the money to take advantage next summer.

Last edited 4 months ago by Elgin R
ArmchairGM

Point will get re-signed, I don’t see him going to free agency. What about Barkov though? Think he’ll test the market?

Your overall point is very valid: the 2022 UFA market is deep a strong.

C: Malkin, Pavelski, Bergeron, Barkov, Zibanejad, Domi, Trocheck, Kadri, Couterier
W: Giroux, Gaudreau, Kessel, Radulov, Forsberg, Hertl, Palat, Niedderreitter, Burakovsky, Rust
D: Letang, Giordano, Nurse, Parayko, Leddy, Lindholm, Pulock, Rielly, Klingberg, Manson, Schultz, Ekholm
G: Fleury, Kuemper, Merzlikins, Campbell

https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/free-agents/2023/caphit/all/all/ufa

Tarkus

I haven’t been keeping real close tabs on this site / Oilogosphere in general lately, so I have to ask:

Is this Cossa chatter being telegraphed like the Broberg / Holloway picks from the org and / or industry insiders, or is this just simply posters and writers–here and elsewhere–putting two (Oilers need a bona-fide goalie prospect) and two (because Oil Kings) together?

BornInAGretzkyJersey

JP pointed out yesterday that the last EOK draftee was Moroz back in 2012, so it’s safe to say that love affair is long since past and a bit overplayed by the fanbase at this point.

That said, Cossa would be a fine pick to make if he’s available. Our keeper prospects are much higher quality than they’ve been in ages, but having a blue chipper would be a no brainer.

Elgin R

Need one badly. Watching Vaseleski, MAF, Price etc put up the wall during these playoffs has really driven home the point.

meanashell11

MAF was the only reason Vegas won last night. He kept them in it until they could mount the comeback. Some absolutely unbelievable saves.

Oilman99

With the limited number of draft picks they have, using a first on a goalie doesn’t make a lot of sense. The goalie pipeline is already pretty clogged.

ArmchairGM

Not a ton of high end skill though.

OriginalPouzar

ArmchairGM

 Reply to Oilman99

 June 9, 2021 11:45 am

Not a ton of high end skill though.

You might be right but I would say that we just don’t know – its too early to tell.

We have a general idea on Skinner as he’s been a pro for a few years and been close to home. He had a very solid season in the AHL and his development isn’t out of line with many serviceable NHL starers over the years – probably not looking like a high end starter though but he has a chace.

We just don’t know with Konovalov – he could be lights out in North America –

Rodrigue may have the highest potential of them all – he was likely the best goalie in the Q in his last season – he’s got great talent. Size may be an issue but you never know. He is raw though and likely the farthest away.

There is a chance that none of them make the NHL, let alone as solid starters, however, at the same time, each of them still has some amount of a chance.

Jaxon

Not really, lots of goalies does not equate clogged. If you search for top goalies prospects in the NHL, Edmonton’s goalie prospects are rarely mentioned in the top 60, let alone the top 8 to 16. What you want in your pipeline is a prospect who is continually mentioned in the top 8 goalies prospects. Those guys turn into your Vasilevskiy, Hart, Nedjelckovic, Price, Fleury type goalies. And most of those guys are drafted high.

leadfarmer

Hedman Fox and Makar Vezina finalists.
Hedman will undeservedly win.

Elgin R

Uhm do you mean Norris?

leadfarmer

Tarasenko reportedly available
i can’t imagine spending much on those shoulders but a healthy Tarasenko would be nice

JimmyV1965

Geez, he was a beast for many years. Would love to get him, but the shoulder stuff is way too risky. Hope his career isn’t derailed.

dustrock

Yeah, I just can’t see it at this point. Would be a huge mistake.

Elgin R

The Blues are spiraling down to a full rebuild and would love to get rid of a $7.5m x 2 player with a potential career ending injury. The guy has played 34 games in the last two seasons. Hard pass.

However, would like to see if we can sign Parayko when he is UFA after next season.

ArmchairGM

Parayko is my hard target too. Wonder what it would cost – do you think he’d go home for $7M or so? I’d love to see Nurse signed for a similar amount.

Elgin R

Don’t know if there is any ‘home-town-discount’ as he has lived in the USA since 2012. But he has grossed over $23m in his career, so maybe who knows.

Dac189

What about Neal+pick for Tarasenko.
Blues get some value out of their injured elite player and we don’t risk very much.
Even if he misses most of the season and just shows up in the playoffs, that’s still better than Neal, right?

OriginalPouzar

What is the value the Blues get, the pick? Does that pick negative the massive negative value of the Neal contract?

leadfarmer

I’m sure desperate Benning will offer his first for Palat

Elgin R

That would be a fireable offense in any other market. Not in Vancouver though.

who

Your trade with Tampa seems like a big reach. Surely Tampa can get more than that for Palat and Joseph?
What’s the value of Jones right now? A 3rd round pick?
Don’t see why Tampa makes that trade, even as a salary dump.
And if Palats in my lineup , he’s playing in the top 6. Don’t see Coleman and Nuge pushing him to the 3rd line.
Nemeth for 2 years at 2.5 million looks like a decent bet to cover for Klefbom until Samorukov or Broberg are ready for top 4 minutes. I’d prefer Murray or Oleksiak, but they probably want more money and term.

Last edited 4 months ago by who
ArmchairGM

Alex Martinez is a much better player than any you named. Vegas may not be able to sign him and he’s 34 this summer so likely won’t be expecting term. Seems like a good bridge to Klefbom’s return and Broberg / Samorukov completing their AHL duty.

who

Yep, that works for me.