The business of the offseason officially got underway yesterday, as Oilers general manager Ken Holland signed forward Devin Shore to a two-year deal. That transaction, added to the note by Daniel Nugent-Bowman in a recent article in The Athletic that suggests Tyler Benson may be protected, gives us an idea about how left wing will work in 2021-22.
THE ATHLETIC!
I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here’s the latest!
- New Jonathan Willis: Why some of the most popular moves Ken Holland could make would be mistakes
- New Lowetide: Why huge Oil Kings goalie Sebastian Cossa could be the perfect first-round fit for the Oilers
- DNB: What I’m hearing about the Oilers’ plans for the Kraken draft
- Lowetide: The Oilers must decide now what to do about the Connor McDavid-Leon Draisaitl dilemma
- DNB: Oilers mailbag, part 2
- Lowetide: What is Kailer Yamamoto’s future fit on the Oilers’ depth chart?
- DNB: Oilers mailbag, part 1
- DNB: What a perfect offseason could look like for the Edmonton Oilers
- Lowetide: The Oilers need to add four wingers to their top nine this summer
- Lowetide: Oilers enter free agency as a major buyer. Is third time the charm?
- DNB: Oilers could look quite different next season after departure of several players
- Lowetide: It won’t be easy, but the Oilers need to re-sign Darnell Nurse soon
- DNB: Ideal Oilers free-agent targets
- New Lowetide: An early look at the Oilers’ options for the 2021 draft
- New DNB: The pressure is on Oilers GM Ken Holland
- New Lowetide: What now for Ryan Nugent-Hopkins?
- New DNB: Connor McDavid shows his frustration as another year of his prime is lost: ‘We’re a group that expects more’
- New Jonathan Willis: The NHL gifted the Oilers Connor McDavid; six years later, they have yet to adequately support him
PROJECTED LW DEPTH CHART 2021-22
- Blake Coleman. He would be my choice, sturdy winger with speed and skill. Coleman scored 9-14-23 five on five in 55 games with Tampa Bay this season (12:16 a night, scoring 2.04 pts-60) and should be able to handle the one or two extra minutes a night he’d be asked to play in Edmonton. His goal and shot share at five on five were over 55 percent, that could slide a little and remain brilliant. He also played 2:15 a night on the PK, allowing 6.41 GA/60. I’d run him on the McDavid line.
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. He had a difficult season at five on five (7-7-14 in 52 games, 14:06 a night, 1.15 pts-60) but should recover next season. He plays a lot on the power play (4:22 a night, 5.48 pts-60) and is productive. His PK time (1:54 per game, 7.86 GA/60) was less effective year over year, and I think cutting some TOI is probably a good idea. Coleman’s PK minutes might mean Nuge can skip those minutes.
- Tyler Benson. This would be the Dominik Kahun role, and it should be mentioned the club might just rehire Kahun for the job. If we go back to the turn of the century, there have been so many examples players who received a full shot at becoming NHL wingers and didn’t make the grade. There’s only one way to find out and that’s 500-at bats. Below are the EV-points per 60 for Oilers rookie forwards since 2000, where do you think Benson would/will land?
- Devin Shore. His PK work got him the contract in my opinion, the five on five possession numbers are ghastly. Even as a 40-game 13th forward who plays center and wing this is a poor bet, and I do believe the pretzel logic used to justify the special teams emphasis for fourth lines will result in a repeat of last season’s stunning five on five bleeding. However, the die is cast.
- It might be James Neal or other. I think Edmonton would need a rock solid two-way winger like Gaetan Duchesne. The bottom six needs a strong five on five player here.
EV PTS-60 OILERS ROOKIE FWDS SINCE 2000
- Connor McDavid 2015-16: 3.00
- Mike Comrie 2000-01: 2.52
- Andrew Cogliano 2007-08: 2.37
- Ales Hemsky 2002-03: 2.26
- Shawn Horcoff 2000-01: 2.24
- Nail Yakupov 2012-13: 2.18
- Fernando Pisani 2002-03: 2.13
- Sam Gagner 2007-08: 1.97
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 2011-12: 1.93
- Jason Chimera 2002-03: 1.90
- Taylor Hall 2010-11: 1.85
- Jordan Eberle 2010-11: 1.81
- Mark Arcobello 2013-14: 1.79
- Linus Omark 2010-11: 1.76
- Josh Currie 2018-19: 1.65
- Liam Reddox 2008-09: 1.56
- Jesse Puljujarvi 2016-17: 1.44
- Dan Lacouture 2000-01: 1.41
- Magnus Paajarvi 2010-11: 1.39
- Jarrett Stoll 2003-04: 1.39
- Jani Rita 2005-06: 1.36
- Teemu Hartikainen 2011-12: 1.36
- Anton Slepyshev 2016-17: 1.33
- Brad Winchester 2006-07: 1.19
- Marc Pouliot 2006-07: 1.17
- Patrick Thoresen 2006-07: 1.15
- Iiro Pakarinen 2015-16: 1.14
- Drake Caggiula 2016-17: 1.10
- Leon Draisaitl 2014-15: 1.05
50-MAN LIST (31)
| Goalie (4) | Left Defense (8) | Right Defense (5) |
| Mikko Koskinen | Darnell Nurse | Ethan Bear |
| Alex Stalock | Kris Russell | Evan Bouchard |
| Ilya Konovalov | Caleb Jones | Filip Berglund |
| Olivier Rodrigue | William Lagesson | Phil Kemp |
| (Stuart Skinner) | Philip Broberg | Mike Kesselring |
| (Dylan Wells) | Dmitri Samorukov | |
| Markus Niemelainen | ||
| Oscar Klefbom LTIR | ||
| (Theodor Lennstrom) | ||
| Left Wing (5) | Center (4) | Right Wing (5) |
| James Neal | Connor McDavid | Jesse Puljujarvi |
| Devin Shore | Leon Draisaitl | Zack Kassian |
| Raphael Lavoie | Kyle Turris | Josh Archibald |
| Dylan Holloway | Ryan McLeod | Kirill Maksimov |
| Ostap Safin | (Juhar Khaira) | Seth Griffith |
| (Tyler Benson) | (Kailer Yamamoto) | |
| (Dominik Kahun) | (Cooper Marody) |
There’s plenty of room to sign all the RFA’s and UFA’s, so from that point of view the Shore addition isn’t a difference maker. However, Shore’s addition does mean the five on five outscoring gap will continue next season. McDavid-Draisaitl will once again represent the only outscoring lines unless Ken Holland can put together a third line with ability.
Shore’s signing signals the fourth line will (for probably half the season or more) be represented by a trio of penalty killers like Shore, Jujhar Khaira and Josh Archibald. It also pushes up Ryan McLeod and Zack Kassian to that third line, with (possibly) rookie Benson. Viewed through this lens, it’s understandable that many fans are frustrated by what is in fact a small deal. The coach is satisfied with the five on five deficit of the bottom-six if the penalty kill delivers. That’s what the Shore signing tells me.
MACT’S LINES IN 2008-09
- Dustin Penner-Shawn Horcoff-Alex Hemsky: 302 minutes, 61 percent shots, 81 percent goals (21-5)
- Erik Cole-Sam Gagner-Robert Nilsson: 172 minutes, 48.7 percent shots, 60 percent goals (9-6)
- Ethan Moreau-Andrew Cogliano-Marc Pouliot: 132 minutes, 45.8 percent shots, 61.5 percent goals (8-5)
- Liam Reddox-Kyle Brodziak-Zack Stortini: 48 minutes, 39 percent shots, 80 percent goals (4-1)
Craig MacTavish was an even strength monster as a coach, the 2008-09 team wasn’t his best (NST only goes back to 2007-08) but his fantastic EV teams always posted strong totals. Overall the 2008-09 team was 228-244 (-16), but with a positive differential at even strength (165-159, +6). The power play (60-8) and penalty kill (3-76) had the 2008-09 Oilers running a -21 deficit.
TIPPETT’S LINES IN 2020-21
- Nuge-Connor McDavid-Jesse Puljujarvi: 258 minutes, 54 percent shots, 48 percent goals (13-14)
- Dominik Kahun-Leon-Kailer Yamamoto: 293 minutes, 48 percent shots, 60 percent goals (12-8)
- Tyler Ennis-Jujhar Khaira-Josh Archibald: 89 minutes, 46 percent shots, 71 percent goals (5-2)
- James Neal-Gaetan Haas-Alex Chiasson: 83 minutes, 48 percent shots, 66 percent goals (2-1)
Ken Holland did in fact provide Dave Tippett with the tools for an outscoring depth line, and there was some promise in the group. Shore wasn’t part of the promise, as his five on five on-ice goal differential (9-17) was a drag on results.
Tippett’s team finished 183-154 goals (+29) but went about it in an opposite MacT fashion. EV strength (133-123, +10) was a positive total, but the special teams were key. Tippett’s power play (48-4, +44) and PK (2-27, -25) lifted the Oilers time and again during the year.
A fan could say “Oilers did well at even strength a year ago, what’s the problem?” but the retort is surely “why wouldn’t the Oiler try to get better?” and that is what we’re waiting to see as the summer rolls out.
I don’t believe the sky is falling. The sky does look curious this morning, though.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, we hit the air with a full force gale, TSN1260. Kaitlyn McGrath from The Athletic will talk Toronto Blue Jays at 10:20 and Ken Boehlke from SinBin Vegas will talk Golden Knights-Avalanche at 11. Plenty of Shore talk, too! 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
Can we agree that loading up the top line doesn’t work? Colorado, Boston, Edmonton, Toronto (ok, that was due to injury), etc. Everyone knows you need goaltending for playoff success, but you also need at least 2 lines producing offence at even strength.
I think it’s a fair tactic in certain situations. But to rely on it unbalances the rest of your roster.
Makes me shudder when I see roster projections for next season with 29+97 together as a default.
Colorado Nate has not won shit going into his 9th season. Why is Joe Sakic wasting this man?
When does he demand to be traded?
So after two rounds we’re left with a 2 seed, a 3 seed and two 4th seeds…just like everyone expected! I guess the Lightning win wasn’t a huge surprise and maybe to a lesser extent VGK either.
I’m not particularly attached to any of the remaining teams, so it will be interesting to watch how it all pans out without having to get too worked up about it.
There are only four teams remaining, but they’re all only half way there. Still lots of potential for injuries, suspensions, questionable officiating, and just plain luck to come into play to say who’s going to be holding the cup when this is all over.
what is the chances it is an American team that takes it home though?
Can’t we still cheer for Ebs?
…and Barzal was drafted with an Oller’s pick…
This HH curse is fucking incredible.
It really is. The DOD laughs at him
I’m always laughing at him, he’s the class clown.
Karma at it’s finest!
Your four semi finalists all sport large aggressive D groups.
Only Tampa has an elite defenseman.
And have gritty two way forwards in varying ways.
Three teams have bigger forward groups overall than the Oilers.
Only Tampa has an elite skill forward.
All four can play with tempo and skate well overall.
All four have tall goalies.
There’s your template Kenny.
Also DEPTH of quality forwards.
If Edmonton losing in the first round with McDavid is a “calamity”.
What does that make the Avalanche losing in the 2nd round (again) with 4 Norris candidates, a Vezina candidate, Landeskog and Mackinnon?
A Saktastrophe?
I think COL is a really good team – upgrade at G, maybe coach (Gallant?) and some more grit than skill on D and they’ll get ‘er done.
Their goalie is nominated for the Vezina…..
Yeah, I know but he wasn’t very good once Vegas pressed and HD scoring chances abounded. A good regular season D corps has created many a Vezina nomination. I think the cruder stats put him in Mike Smith and Dreidger territory for these playoffs.
They do have to sign him, too
I still think the Oilers can get a good forward, a couple of better cheaper forwards, a Koski upgrade, sign Hamilton, and not block Bouchard.
But that’s just me.
Sure, if they let Larsson go (in addition to Barrie), they could sign Hamilton, cap wise, but what happens if he doesn’t agree to play in Edmonton?
You can have it all according to Capfriendly. But not Nuge, has to be a cheaper forward.
What happens if (when), Hamilton doesn’t sign and Larsson has signed with another org?
Bear
Bouchard
Berglund
Kemp
Unpopular solution….
The Oilers should be looking to off load Kassian for Tony DeAngelo
DeAngelo becomes your top pairing RHD
Regardless of what Larsson does this trade should be made.
It’s risky but I would do it.
It will also limit the ability to re-sign Nurse. Short term gain for long term pain. All that glitters is not gold!
Somebody needs to explain why so many think Hamilton would come to Edmonton when he was previously unhappy in Calgary?
It is universallly accepted truth (in this, or other Oilers sites) that Calgary stink..
You had me until ‘sign Hamilton’.
All the rest I agree with for sure. ‘Reasonable Expectations’ say Holland will improve the Oilers over the summer.
Can’t even cherry pick a team right. hahaha
I hope the Oilers never win the evil PT
I’m surprised no one has mentioned Patrick Russell today.
IIRC, the reaction to re-signing Russell was identical to what folks are going through now with Devin Shore.
How did that turn out? Russell played 8 games for the Oilers this season and spent most of the year on the taxi squad.
He didn’t impede further signings through the off season to improve the team. ?
Oh, DSF…
You eat it so much I have no choice but to believe that you love the taste of crow.
Lol poor Avs HH with the kiss of death again. Thank Christ this guy doesn’t cheer for the oilers. I’d rather have Button as a fan
Yuck
Avalanche with the DSF kiss of death.
it’s like a failure guarantee
Except now he just switches to one of the remaining team and tries to gaslight everyone that it was thus.
MacKinnon isn’t going to stand for this much longer….
Its almost criminal that Sakic is wasting this player’s prime.
I don’t think the hoi polloi are getting the joke
It’s really too bad Sakic is letting Mackinnons contract waste away.
times a ticking on that contract
It’s too bad we won’t get to witness Sakic’s masterpiece of acquiring Dubnyk knock them out of the playoffs
who needs two competent goalies anyways
Shoulda put Doobie in tonight after 1st goal, still might not have won it for them but Grubauer really faded this series (or credit to Vegas for getting the book on him)
Everyone check under your nearest bridge for a troll!!
Bookies are gonna be looking for him soon
Well, that’s likely it for the Avs.
Girard’s been ‘in the picture’ a lot this series.
He sure has
Strange for a ‘top 7 in the league’ guy… oh my
(looks under bridge 😉
Girard outmuscled in front of the net again
Joe Yerdon (@JoeYerdon) Tweeted:
Vegas-Colorado needs to be a best-of-15
https://twitter.com/JoeYerdon/status/1401036072524648449?s=20
Colorado would get murdered
physically they are already hanging on for fear life
Vegas – TB will be better
Absolutely.
Tampa has skill of Avs but play dirty like Boston
And a better G
The game is already
1 2 3 Av fall down
That’s legit the only way Col could win… surely they’d easily go down 2-7 before Vegas gets tired of beating the dead horse.
Fun game – sloppy but skilled
Perhaps Sakic should trade one of his young stud D for John Gibson.
If they team can’t get past the 2nd round, again, does ownership allow Sakic to make more moves? We’re coming up on close to a decade of Sakic built teams – never with a 2nd round win.
What a ridiculous take.
Sakic has built one of the best 4 teams in the league and it often takes several tries to win a cup.
The early Oilers, Capitals, Blues and Lightning are just a few examples.
Lightning don’t have a single defensemen under 6’1 200 lbs
avs are getting absolutely manhandled as was predicted
Avs are built for regular season
Should we be concerned with the size of the Oilers’ D group?
Broberg, Samorukov, Bouchard all big guys (in addition to Nurse and Larsson).
If they happen to make it, Kemp, Kesselring, Niemelainen, Berglund – all big.
The pipeline isn’t relevant in the context of this discussion on Leadfarmer’s original statement on the size of Tampa’s D vs Colorado’s D. And EB is listed below Leadfarmer’s 6’1 200 lbs.
Your statement I was responding to was in respect of the Oilers d-group which is currently evolving – the prospects are on the verge – Sammy, Broberg, Bouchard – arriving. They are relevant in my opinion.
Absolutely.
Especially smaller ones that aren’t top end skill players and lack plus skating.
A series like Avs Knights , Bruins Isles would seriously expose them.
The Avs young D will get better with experience, but we see even with the top end skill, lacking size in heavy playoff games be a tough road.
Especially if you’re running 3 on one team.
The Oilers can’t be so small up front. If they like Yama, there isn’t room for many more.
Archie gets a wildcard because he can handle the rodeo.
Who?
Bear and Jones? Barrie if they re-sign him, but that doesn’t sound likely.
Everyone else on the team and in the pipeline has size (well, save Russell, but he should be grandfathered out gradually).
I don’t see much reason for concern.
Bear, Jones, Russell and Koekoek, and even Bouchard are listed as under 6’1 200lbs – that’s the context of the discussion from Leadfarmer’s statement.
Koekkoek isn’t likely to be on the team.
Russell is likely 7D and, in any event, has 1 year left.
Bouchard is 6’3 and was 194 in junior – I anticipate he’s over 200 now.
Nurse, Larsson, Klef, Bouchard – of size – and pretty much every prospect of note is of size.
The Oilers site lists Koekkoek as 6’2″, 193 and Bouchard as 6’3″, 194 (and probably still growing). I thought they were both 200-ish, but regardless, watching them I wouldn’t consider them small. If you want to that’s fine, but no I’m not concerned about those two (that’s if Koekkoek is even part of the team going forward).
The other 3, yes there’s some concern for sure. But between expansion draft and usage, it’s not clear Jones will be part of the plans. And as I said already, Russell should be seeing less and less minutes going forward, so not a concern.
That leaves Bear, and if he’s the smallest D on the team (pretty likely by playoff time next season) then I’m not worried about it. I guess you are?
Edit: I missed OPs post saying much the same.
FWIW, the Lightning are the anomaly in terms of Dman size.
The Islanders have 2 of their top 6 who aren’t 6’1″ and 200.
4 of the 8 defensemen the Canadians have dressed aren’t 6’1″ and 200 (though all of their top 4 are).
Vegas has 1 of 7 D who aren’t 6’1″ and 200.
San Jose?
Didn’t the Oilers win the cup in their 4th year?
The house money is back to the house. With your predictive powers you probably had your winnings spent. There goes your new voodoo doll. Easy sleazy go!?
Team’s a bust. Burn it down.
A period away from 3 playoff series wins in 8 years under Sakic.
Some generationally bad seasons in there as well.
dang these avs D are getting beat on the boards and now off the rush
Vegas is the Borg. Seriously. Also, all shot out of a cannon as LT would say.
At least Haas saved Holland from himself.
You mean he left, so Holland couldn’t sign him?
I don’t get how a center with only 8 5v5 goals gets nominated for the Hart
McKinnon is a streaky player (currently on a downbeat) so he heated up at the right time?
Kane or Marchand would have been more ‘MVP to one’s team’
Crosby Barkov Fleury Hellebyuck Marchand
Wondering a bit about the mechanics of free agency. Is it a bit like buying a house. The GM sends a contract offer to the player with a deadline for them to sign (and they can potentially negotiate/counter offer). So for a specific position, a GM is forced to make one offer at a time and can’t put out offers to two players for the same position in case they both sign?
I assume there could be all manner of phone discussion but that isn’t serious until there is a contract written up and sent.
Not at all. GM’s will be on the phone speaking to agents, and probably having dialogue with many agents with respect to many player. Potential deal terms will be discussed/negotiated, etc. and the GM will likely be negotiating terms with many agents on many players.
“Formal” documented paper offers won’t really be submitted – once a GM and a player (through his agent) come to terms, they have a deal and then the paper work will be drawn up and submitted.
I presume that no contract is written up until a deal is verbally consummated.
Re: shot share analysis
We all know about score effects and game-state impact on statistics, and I’ll suggest shot-share %’s would be highly impacted for a forward whose job it was to defend a lead.
Dave Tippett’s defensive strategy is to play low-event hockey on the bottom lines, often in a prevent-defense formation when protecting a lead, limiting high-danger chances but allowing low-percentage shots from range.
Shore was Tippett’s trusted man on the left side to execute the strategy, and the Oilers played a fine-tuned game over the second half of the regular season where the bottom lines largely succeeded in suppressing high danger chances.
The team was good at protecting leads and won.
They forced the opposition to put pucks in on Smith, who would handle and efficiently distribute back to his teammates who would chip the puck into the other teams end where Shore, Archibald and Khaira would badger and cycle and kill clock.
They played countless shifts where the Oilers would be down 1-0 on the shot clock, and a minute of play will have elapsed with no significant game events.
They were beautifully boring. Thats what i observed anyway.
I agree with this with the exception of the playoffs. Watching the other teams in the playoffs it seems to me that the most successful teams have their D getting the puck to the forwards really fast. Not much cross ice stuff or russell reset’s.
Watching the oilers at times during the playoff’s when the D had the puck in our zone I could often go have a shit, grab a beer, order a pizza come back only to see the D still haven’t transitioned the puck to the forwards.
Shore looked better as a winger than as a center. Not sure the results match but I did like him better there. I don’t mind the move if the idea is to keep him as one of the extra forwards. And as a winger. The negativity wouldn’t been as bad if this wasn’t the first move of the off season I think but my guess is that had more to do with this being an easy negotiation rather than a major priority or that he has an inside track as the 4LW. Holland wanted him back as a depth forward and Shore wanted some stability, cheap contract with an extra year, done.
With the team dropping Haas, Nygård, Ennis, Chiasson(likely), Neal(maybe/probably), Kahun(maybe) plus Khaira not being an absolute certainty depending on what he wants and at least in part replace them from within with the boys from Bakersfield I think they want at least a couple of returning guys with experience and Tippett/Holland seem to value guys who can PK at the bottom of the forward lineup.
If this ends up being the biggest forward signing of the off season then yeah this is disappointing. But I doubt it will be.
I agree with you that he looked better as a winger. Shore isn’t going to block anyone and is a good guy to have in the press box. He has had some reasonable EV scoring years early on in his career in Dallas. I can’t be bothered one way or another.
Agreed.
Do you know that or just guessing?
He was born in Texas, played hockey in Miami, and then played for New Jersey and then the Lightening.
Yeah, I don’t think he’d consider Edmonton, unless it’s a substantial overpay.
And Texas, Florida and Washington State have no state income tax.
This is my biggest concern. I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t want to play here.
Man to me it looked like Pageau ate Bergeron’s lunch in that series. He is the exact type of player we need.Bugs the shit out of me that he was acquired for a 2020 1st and 2nd rounder when we traded two 2nd’s for AA ..one last year, and one this year.
I guess we will never know where we would have ended up with Pageau instead of AA but me thinks we would have beaten the hawks. A signed Pageau would have been a huge difference to this team in this year’s playoff’s as well.
If KH can find that type of player.. the one who is a RT shot center gets 55% on the faceoffs and can score like Pageu is doing in the playoffs this year he has to do it. Enough with the drafting shit already .. trade futures for the right player.. But it HAS to be the next Pageau.. This is the year to do it as he has the cap space.. Ownership must start to pressure on KH to make this happen.
Looks like the best comparable for Pageau is Pageau!
All of these guys look like they are not as strong bets or have contracts that are not good value. Reinhart is good but he hasn’t played center recently.
https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/active/2021/caphit/all/center/all/desc/right?limits=age-25-29,gp-20-90,pointspergame-0.4-0.8
Phillip Danault might be better. He is LH, but who cares as long as he performs at the level he’s been for the past few years. I’d take him over RNH all day long, even at longer term and money.
The cost for AA was higher because he wasn’t acquired as a rental. He was an RFA at the end of the season. The financial landscape changes after acquiring him making qualifying him a non-starter but, at the time of acquisition, the cost made sense. If he was a pending UFA like Pageau, he wouldn’t cost a 3rd round pick to acquire (maybe a single second rounder).
I can’t get on board with a premise of “enough of this drafting shit” – trading picks may be the right move but drafting is and will always remain important.
I also can’t get on board with ownership pressuring GMs – hire your GM, let him work – hands off hockey ops in any regard.
Philip Danault scratches that itch, I think.
I’d love to raid him and Armia from Montreal’s re-signing plans.
Sure Pageau is the kind of player we need to compliment the big guys. So is Danault, but if we sign him, all EDM fans would do it b*tch about the contract. Look at the fuss over Shore’s meaningless cap hit. The guy makes league minimum and people complain. Remarkable.
Screw all of you guys saying the Shore signing is bad. Now I can keep wearing my Devin Shore jersey!
Lol?
Wow the level of pearl clutching and hyper-ventilating on a #12-13 forward is amazing. We are going to make changes to the bottom 6, but you can’t gut the whole thing in one off-season. It would take all year for guys to learn the system and settle into their roles. Not all the new guys will succeed. Shore looks like a guy who was improving as he settled in and the year went on. This reminds me of the Smith signing last year which all the genius’ on this site said was going to be a disaster.
Shore was a lot better in the 2nd half than the first and I’m fine with Shore-JJ-Archie on the 4th line energy/PK unit. All of them fit the bill and they are are built for the playoffs. McLeod can get some time down there as well. I see him on the roster next year but not full-time and certainly not centering L3. The problem last year was that all these guys were L3.
So who should be on the 3rd line? Well moving Yamo down here makes some sense as he can provide some moxie and offense. Same with Benson on 3LW and you need to add a new 3C like Haula. You also need a top 6 LW like Coleman-Hyman-Palat
Drai McDavid Kass
Coleman-Palat-Hyman RNH JP
Benson Haula Yamo
Shore McLeod JJ Archie
Doesn’t take much to make a nice balanced set of forwards and Shore can play a small role.
Can a team slotting Zac Kassian on the first line be considered “balanced”?
With Drai and McDavid on the top line, all you need is muscle so Drai doesn’t need to be the heavy. You are not creating an all-star team. Kass has a role on that line and the skills necessary to carry it out.
Calendar year 2019 Kass, in particular, fall 2019, yes.
Calendar year 2020 and, so far, 2021 has not shown the ability (skill) to carry out that role.
At the very least the signing represents cooperation between coach and GM. Tippet very obviously trusted Shore and would probably have been frustrated had he not been brought back. Especially since there is no risk or consequence to his signing.
I think Tippet has enough on his plate this coming season and Shore brings stability.
Multiple rookies to break in. New UFAs and possibly the loss of Nuge.
Bouchard, Benson, McLeod, Jones, Lagesson. Possibly Broberg and Holloway.
Shore is a vet happy to be the 12/13th forward. Plus, he’s cheap.
I guess I’m one of the “angry” people, but it’s more frustration with Holland and the direction of the organization.
Talking about getting bottom 6 signings “out of the way”. I seriously don’t understand this organization. This team is the walking dead when 97 and 29 aren’t on the ice.
We’ve had a terribad bottom 6 for years and years. We had a good one briefly with Strome and Jesse, and screwed that up.
We signed Turris for 2(!!!) years after being healthy scratched on Nashville, who isn’t the deepest forward team.
Now signing Shore for 2(!!!) more years. Yeah, $875,000.00. But why now? Can we not aim our sights a little higher for our bottom 6?
Let him go for UFA Bonanza, and if he lucks out with a better deal (he won’t), and you can’t replace Shore, that’s a huge tell on your organization.
This GM is getting $5million per year.
Don’t sign Shore now. Don’t spend in UFA at all. Wait and see what happens with the expansion draft. See what happens with the flat cap.
Shore is going to be available September 30th, and again, if he’s not, and you can’t find a replacement, that’s a huge tell.
I have absolutely nothing against Shore, who seems like a real hard-working guy who obviously puts out a ton of effort. He’s 26 years old. Good for him for finding the right organization.
https://www.nhl.com/player/devin-shore-8476913
His second year with Dallas he had 32 points and was -30.
He shot 18% last year and still got absolutely caved at 5v5.
Someone give me some confidence in the pro scouting.
Also, I know it’s only $875,000.00, but we have players to sign. And Ryan Smyth was traded for less than that.
2017 Dal 82 13-20-33 -4
2018 Dal 82 11-21-32 -30
2019 Dal 42 5-12-17 +-0
2019&2020 Ana 73 9-13-22 -20
Outside of goal differential in the 2nd year, he put up pretty good numbers in Dallas.
His production in Anaheim wasn’t too bad and his plus minus there is influenced by them being a really bad team.
2019 Anaheim -52GD Shore -12…. 34 games
2020 Anaheim -39GD Shore -8…. 39 games
Even this season he was only -4
He could actually be pretty good for us if he produces like in his 1st and 3rd seasons
Shore is a useful PK,4th line man with size and physicality that is required come post season at a decent price. If somebody better comes along, he is insurance that can be sent to Bakersfield.
Re: even strength scoring, Oilers may be +133/-123, but at 5v5 they were just +115/-116. The big difference was goalie out scenarios where they went +14/-3, the rest would be OT (+4/-2) & 4v4 (presumably +0/-2). Oilers outscored their opp 3-2 when they had their goalie pulled, & 11-1 when the other guys’ net was empty.
EV goal differential looks better when you remove some of the sinkholes:
Jones (-7)
Chiasson (-7)
Shore (-8)
Koekkoek (-8)
Turris (-10)
Haas (-5)
Archibald (-6)
A lot those guys will be gone.
More than 50% are on the roster
Calling Turris ‘on the roster’ is a stretch I believe.
Elliotte Friedman (@FriedgeHNIC) Tweeted:
Hearing CAL is adding Kirk Muller to its coaching staff.
https://twitter.com/FriedgeHNIC/status/1403068529063125002?s=20
Of note… VCR yesterday signed goalie whisperer Ian Clark to a 5 year deal yesterday as well as adding 2 new assistants.
Benning with the 180? I guess Demko got what he wanted but I am surprised Clark agreed after all that went before.
Don’t think it was Benning but ownership wouldn’t spend a dime until the expansion windfall landed in the bank.
Worth noting the Canucks also added Brad Shaw as an assistant.
He’s widely known as a great teacher of defensive structure.
Worth noting the Canucks are trash, Brad Shaw is teaching defense to trash.
So they’ll continue to get caved in every metric except goalie?
It is difficult the current incarnation of Oilers to its improve 5v5 scoring for their 3rd and 4th line, because any semi-competent-looking forward will get audition to one of the first two lines.
In the old days, a checking line is called 3rd line and the 4th line is the energy line where kids and face punchers play 6~8min a night. The old Oilers nemesis Stars went the other way and play aging skill players in their grumpy old men line 4th line.
Chaisson-Kassian-X probably belong in such a grumpy oldmen 4th line against soft parade.
No where to go but up, right?
Now that we pick 20th (really 19th with ARZ debt) there is a better chance to grab Cossa if that’s the best move.
Nashville right before us at 19th pick grabbed Askarov last year so probably not looking at another goalie. So that leaves WPG, STL, NYR, & DAL in the range to consider the Oil King goalie.
I have a feeling Wallstedt goes in 7-11 range.
If the Habs don’t resign Perry, I would. A perfect mentor for younger players and wingers on how to play right when it gets hard. I like winning more than grudges.
A better net front presence than Neal or Chiasson. Bottom six through the reg season and see what is needed of him come playoffs.
Someone said to me that Bergevin did better than Dubas bcs he brought in vets with Cups. My take is that he brought in vets that are gritty and can score when it’s tough. Dubas brought in higher skill, but not types that muck it up, and more importantly like it that way.
I would also get Coleman bcs he will be a far better value contract compared to Saad or Hyman, which also means if he ends up bottom 6 it’s not a killer.
I also have time for Killorn if that were to happen.
The kicker is that I think there is a very high probability that Holloway pushes his way on the roster by mid season. He has everything he needs for the NHL now.
I think he’s quality and if he struggles to jump it’s a bit of a down arrow, I think he’s going to excel in the A.
The bottom line is the Oilers need hard nosed wingers. LTs lines from the past to me show that. Big tough wingers that can score are essential. Cole, Pancakes, Maroon. If you don’t have elite skill like Hemsky, you need the other.
They also really need a faceoff winning RC. I want 2, in case one gets hurt. Bozak, Glendenning, or Ryan. Have them play wing if you need to.
I think up front they only need to save for the future 2 spots, because there are only two strong prospects in Holloway and Lavoie.
I support a big shakeup in the bottom 6. I think the PK success was largely driven by coaching. Players other than who they had are also able to do it.
PP is all about the elite skill, that remains and Bouchard will fill in for Barrie nicely or even be better, I think he’s sneakier.
Yah Dubas went with numbers and then thought that skill and some leadership qualities were more important than work ethic and tanasity and leadership qualities. Things that look good on paper don’t always compute in the playoffs .. should have looked maybe at analytically how many times some of those players failed in the playoffs.. and don’t get me wrong .. I look at the numbers .
Sorry. I’m not trying to be a jerk here, but if the Shore signing is truly upsetting you, maybe take a deep breath and step back. The team obviously appreciates the player and it’s almost assuredly for off ice reasons. Maybe they think he would be a great mentor for kids on the farm and place high value on that. I will be stunned if Shore isn’t one of an assortment of players pegged as the 13th forward and won’t give it a second thought until we know otherwise.
Agreed.
Not sure if it’s just Oiler fans, or general human nature, but it seems like a large percent of the population aren’t happy unless they have something to bitch about.
The sky is not falling because the Oilers signed Devon Shore. Why don’t we wait until Holland really screws up before we start foaming at the mouth.
“Start as you mean to go” comes to mind.
You won’t have to wait long?
The issue with this team isnt that we had a 4th line that couldnt provide offense but could kill penalties its we had 2 of those lines.
Holy hell….
I don’t think I can agree with this as a blanket statement.
Sure, if Shore ends up playing 65 games and a material amount of them on the 3rd line, yes, that statement is likely correct.
If Shore starts the season as the 13th/14th forward, or even the 12th forward as 4LW, I don’t think that statement is necessarily true.
This move does not shut the door on any “fixing” of the 3rd and 4th lines.
Haas and Nygard are already gone – I would think the GM is looking for upgrades.
The Shore addition is a tell. Shore-Khaira-Archibald are extremely likely to be a trio. They played 80 minutes together and had a 38.57 percent shot share. I’d bet on that line being well under 50 percent again last season. https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20202021&thruseason=20202021&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=EDM&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2021-05-15&td=2021-06-10&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8476326&p2=8476915&p3=8476913&p4=0&p5=0
Shore-Khaira-Archilbald as a 4th line is one thing. But the third line needs to be quality and not more of the same.
Even then all of Shore-Kharia-Archibald are essentially replacement players. On a good team they are 13-14th forwards.
i don’t agree that it’s a tell at all. They like the guy for some reason. Meh. What I do know is if that line has a 38% goal share, it won’t be a line for long.
Ha. I didn’t refresh the comments when I posted. This is what happens. (I wrote what you had already written.)
It could be a tell, or it could be a depth signing that turns out to be a player that can sit and wait until the other players signed do their magic, but then get injured, Shore will fill the void. At the same time he may get used to the systems and improve at 26 years old given some stability and people believing in him.. it can happen .. it happened to Zachary Kasian. Devon is someone who will work hard and that is a trait that is difficult to measure but of the most importance once the playoffs start .. we need to build a team to get into the playoffs but we need to turn into a playoff team once we get there .. and every person who actually acts like a soldier will be needed .. we can tell the team they need a strong GF percentage and Corsie and Fenwick, but we need to play the way we need to play to win in the playoffs .. and the element that is missing is always a mystical unexplainable intangible that can’t be built simply from evidence of the numbers, but from the perseverance, character, skill and drive that makes the numbers happen.. then we compute.. and come up with our expectations.
LT, as always, says it best.
It’s not the signing in isolation that’s the issue, it’s the ripple effect of it as well a signal to what the plan is for next year.
Benson / x – McLeod – Kassian – Doesn’t exactly have the look of an outscoring 3rd line unless it’s centred by Danault. Even then.
Shore – JJ — Archibald – That’s a line that played 80 minutes last season going 38.5 SF% and 40% GF.
That’s a bottom six that’s going to give a lot of goals back at 5v5.
Exactly! It’s like Holland is setting the floor of the roster first. The ceiling is a very safe bet to be high, but there’s gonna be a huge gap between the 2 ends of the spectrum. Build from the top first, then pick up depth players later. They should be a dime a dozen this summer, and probably an upgrade on what we had last year. If that means we end up turning over most of the bottom 6 than it’s actually a good thing, because we got caved there anyways at 5V5. Valuing “Good in the room”, and “Not making waves”’ was the narrative that landed us Ference and Belanger types.
Sincerely,
Chicken Little
I think Holland closed the Shore signing so that LT would cease starting every show with a line about the Oilers making no moves in the off-season and what is taking so long. Ha ha!
Holland should target two Tampa Bay forwards in free agency , Blake Coleman & Barclay Goodrow . If he can re-sign Nuge that would be great the left side would be solid with those three . If not Coleman would be a suitable choice to replace Nuge in the top six & Goodrow would solidify the bottom six , he may even be capable of playing in the top six .
We have the cap space to sign Nuge, Coleman and another forward.
The only thing I don’t get is:
why bother with adding second year?
This isn’t a player you need to offer any term to, at present.
You’re going to love Kenny by the end of the summer?
Holland’s modus operandi (from Detroit to Kassian to Shore) is to overpay and over-term the ‘loyal’ vet who is ‘good in the room’. Would Shore have taken a 1-year / 1-way contract? I would think so as he had to get a job on a PTO last season!
Not trying to be a jerk, but why do you care if he’s signed for two years? The entire contract can be buried.
Shore’s contract doesn’t impact the cap. The 2nd year is spending a rich owner’s money to make him waiver proof.
“Drew Shores signing flies in the face of analytics”
Analytics show he kills penalties at a high level rate
“NOT THOSE ANALYTICS!!!, different analytics”
I recall this wonderful gal I met In prague her name was anna littitks…she really knew her numbers!
Where’s the “+ infinity button” on this thing?
sorry that should be licktits….she was something else!
Shore had a 105 PDO at 4v5 last year.
His on ice SV% was .909 (38th/190 forwards who played 30 min or more).
Put Shore in some goalie equipment!
What could possibly go wrong?
I think it’s worth noting Shore was only 3rd of 7 Oiler forwards in on ice SV%.
The team was 6th in the league in on ice SV% last season, 1st the year before (9th and 2nd in GA rates).
His on ice SV% isn’t sticking out compared to his teammates.
Over the 2 seasons combined the Oilers ranks at 4v5:
GA/60 3rd
on ice SV% 1st
SA/60 24th
xGA/60 23rd
SCA/60 25th
HDCA/60 19th
Whatever the Oilers are doing to have PK success, it’s not reflected in the underlying numbers.
It’s tempting to say the team is just riding a heater and that the GA rates will come crashing down, but the sample is almost 600 minutes and it’s happened across 2 seasons.
That was my headline, so maybe I should respond.
Shore’s PK outcomes were good, just 5.3 GA/60, second best behind the departed Gaetan Haas (3.9), but he was a culprit on a higher rate of Grade A chances against on the PK than any other forward. Small sample size, goalie had his back.
That actually was in the article if you read past the headline.
The article also pointed out that of 389 NHL forwards with 300+ minutes at 5v5, Shore was the ONLY ONE with a SF% below 40%. 389th out of 389. Suggesting that maybe there will be superior options out there on the market.
And all that said, there are things to like about the player. I don’t hate him, I’m just wary of his results. But history suggests that somebody like Benson or Holloway might have to cool their heels for a while waiting for a chance to play.
The Oilers used something like 16 or 17 forwards this year.
Shore got signed to 1) play competently on the pk, 2) provide an NHL-seasoned option in the event of injury, 3) provide a challenge to Benson, etc
If you’re going to flush Haas, Nygard, Ennis, Neal, and maybe Chiasson from the bottom-6, perhaps it’s good to get a few bottom-of-the-roster signings out of the way to have cost-certainty for more important moves.
Shore outperformed Neal, Ennis and Nygard at LW this past year. If Holland were to keep one of the four he picked the right one and got him for near league-minimum.
Shore outperformed Ennis? By what metrics?
TOI in an elimination game?
If that’s how you judge performance fill your boots
Benson was so challenged he couldn’t get a look. Maybe that’s a good thing, I’m not so sure.
Marcobello, of 130+ games of NHL fame, raised to stardom from the unknowns of the ECHL Stockton Thunder. He beat out defense stewards Lennart Petrell and Eric Belanger for ice time enroute.
There got to be a happy medium somewhere.
BENSON is a Substantial Prospect 🙂