I love talking about the draft picks I get right. I had Ethan Bear ranked No. 38 in 2015, when he made his NHL debut I bragged so much my wife stopped going for walks with me for a time. “I’ll go later, the dog will get two walks,” she’d say. Andrew Mangiapane, Alex DeBrincat, you can bet your bottom dollar that when Arthur Kaliyev makes it there will be 40 posts about him, too.
But it’s also true I had Sam Bennett ahead of Leon Draisaitl, Eeli Tolvanen ahead of Kailer Yamamoto, I had Dylan Holloway No. 25. So, the complete record isn’t all sunshine, lollipops and rainbows.
That said, I own it. All of my good and bad bets are public.
I keep reading online brags about Cole Caufield being the one true choice for Edmonton and man I have to tell you I don’t recall a bunch of people screaming his name in 2019. I do remember people talking about Trevor Zegras, that I buy.
I bet you some had Caufield higher than me (No. 9), but my guess is a lot of people who are mad about the Broberg pick would have selected someone else. I will accept any brags Blue Bullet cares to throw, he ranked Caufield No. 6, but the rest of you are going to need to send me a link. Please and thanks. Otherwise you’re pissing in the wind and frankly ruining your credibility.
THE ATHLETIC
I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here’s the latest!
- New DNB and Dom: How the Oilers should value pending UFAs
- New Jonathan Willis: How the Oilers could make a Jack Eichel-level trade happen this offseason
- Lowetide: The 7 Oilers roster spots GM Ken Holland must improve this offseason
- Lowetide: Caleb Jones, Oilers reach crossroads that could land Jones in Seattle
- Lowetide: What will Oilers do if they must replace Oscar Klefbom?
- Jonathan Willis: What comes next for the Oilers’ Jesse Puljujarvi?
- Lowetide: Why Evan Bouchard, Ryan McLeod and more prospects are options for Oilers in 2021-22
- DNB: Ten teams the Oilers should be targeting for trades ahead of the Kraken expansion draft
- Lowetide: How Ken Holland’s transaction history could foreshadow the Oilers summer to come
- Lowetide: How close to NHL-ready is Oilers prospect Dmitri Samorukov?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ reasonable expectations eat dust during Connor McDavid’s dream season
- Jonathan Willis: Why some of the most popular moves Ken Holland could make would be mistakes
- Lowetide: Why huge Oil Kings goalie Sebastian Cossa could be the perfect first-round fit for the Oilers
- DNB: What I’m hearing about the Oilers’ plans for the Kraken draft
- Lowetide: The Oilers must decide now what to do about the Connor McDavid-Leon Draisaitl dilemma
- Lowetide: What is Kailer Yamamoto’s future fit on the Oilers’ depth chart?
- DNB: What a perfect offseason could look like for the Edmonton Oilers
- Lowetide: What now for Ryan Nugent-Hopkins?
DRAFT MEMORIES
The 2014 draft was memorable because Edmonton was drafting No. 3 and there were four great players. Craig MacTavish and Stu MacGregor got it right, in what was the last big moment for each man in their positions with Edmonton. I was pleased for Draisaitl’s name being announced, but had no idea the impact he would have on the organization.
The 2015 draft will be remembered both for Connor McDavid and good work done by Edmonton’s amateur scouts after millions of dollars in value picks had been sent away. The trades carved that Oilers list like a hog at the slaughter, and those scouts delivered Caleb Jones, Ethan Bear and John Marino in the depths of the draft. That was an amazing weekend.
The 2016 draft we’ve talked about quite a bit recently, I was thrilled with the Jesse Puljujarvi selection and it looks like it’s going to work out despite a short delay. I also liked the Filip Berglund pick but do wonder if he waited too long to come over. There’s a weird current with this draft, guys like Tyler Benson and Markus Niemelainen have some solid bullet points on their resumes but it’s playing out like Tyler Pitlick and Martin Marincin from the 2010 draft. It’s good, they’re going to have careers and some of it will be in the NHL, but I’m not sure they’re destined to be long-term Oilers. We’ll see.
The 2017 draft has always struck me as the most promising of the post-McDavid drafts. I genuinely loved the Kailer Yamamoto selection, remember being on the air with Dean Millard (draft coverage) and Guy Flaming, it was the right choice but Edmonton had never chosen a small player that soon. Dmitri Samorukov had a strong reputation as a tough defender with size and speed and he has the skill set to play effectively on he defensive side of the puck. That style is more in vogue in this year’s playoffs than they have been in years. He could be arriving right on time. Stuart Skinner was a coveted goalie on draft day, drifted due to performance, and then closed with a strong season with the Bakersfield Condors.
The 2018 draft probably houses the next substantial offensive player for the roster, as Evan Bouchard will have a major part in Edmonton’s success beginning this fall. Even if he’s third pair and second power play next season (I don’t expect that to be a job description for long) the numbers will be solid to excellent. He is an impact passer, and will be sending pucks to some of the best forwards in the game. Music! Ryan McLeod has a chance to fill an important role eventually (No. 3 center) and will be an inexpensive roster player for the next few years. Olivier Rodrigue is another solid goalie bet.
The 2019 draft is easily the most controversial in recent years, owing to the Philip Broberg selection inside the top-10 overall. The young man looks like a modern Oscar Klefbom to me, but we’ll see as time goes by and he is easily the least popular first-round selection among Oilers fans since Alex Plante. I had Broberg No. 16, and the team’s second-round selection (Raphael Lavoie) at No. 26, so have always viewed them as more of a pair than a first and a second. There’s a chance Lavoie emerges as the best player in this draft, a real rarity for an Oilers draft (last time: 2002, Jarret Stoll over Jesse Niinimaki). Ilya Konovalov is an emerging story, he has an open shot at the starter’s job in Bakersfield for 2021-22 and could push for NHL time this coming season. Matej Blumel had a big season in the Czech league, no announcement but the league rules suggest Edmonton lost his rights June 1.
The 2020 draft has that winning look one year after the fact. Dylan Holloway romped through his season (NHLE: 41.6) and has a clear path to the NHL as early as this season. He could be a significant addition to the Oilers roster. Carter Savoie followed up the most productive AJHL season since Dany Heatley in 1999 (source: Red Line Report) with an impressive debut for the Denver Pioneers of the NCHC (NHLE: 30.0). Tyler Tullio didn’t play a lot and that’s a concern, but his skill set and skill quality make him a genuine NHL prospect. It’s early days, but all of Maxim Berezkin, Filip Engaras and Jeremias Lindewall are pushing one year later. This draft has no right to look as good as it does considering where the Oilers were picking.
If the Oilers big problem last year was 5v5 play of the bottom 6, then am I crazy to suggest that the top signing/trading priority should be a 3rd line centre? First two lines with 97 & 29 seem to do okay, and some reasonable hopes that Pulju and Yamo will continue to get better…
That assumes that Nuge re-signs but, yes, I think the 3C is key along with a multi year solution in goal.
Do you think the multi-year solution in goal is on the UFA market, or is it a trade?
I ask because I only see Grubauer, Ullmark and Dreidger on the UFA market that potentially fit that bill (34 year old Rask?). And if it has to be a trade for someone you’re decently sure about, well that’s a trade that might be tough to get good value on if you’re dead set on making it in the next 3 months.
Ullmark or Driedger would be my choices. Both are 27 and should come in at a rasonable cap hit. This team really doesn’t have any trade assets other than their 1st overall and I am not inclined to trade that for a goalie.
Yeah, one of those two would be ideal, agreed on that. Hopefully the bidding don’t go too high though (I’m concerned).
Others have disagreed with me, but I see resource scarcity at the position in terms of worthy solutions who:
a) don’t break the bank
b) are reasonably likely to be better than Koskinen
c) are likely able to maintain that level for 3+ seasons
The Oilers need a player or two on each line that push the river.
But how can they afford that?
It depends on what you mean by push the river.
A team like a body depends on different parts to do different things.
Obviously the brain and heart are the most important.
On a hockey line you need a balance of skill and tenacity. You don’t play in the highest league in the world and not expect pushback.
River pusher can be scoring or pushing flow of play.
Players that lack aggressiveness in how they play, and I don’t mean face washes dirty things and stick work, are passengers.
The Oilers have too many passengers.
It takes a lot of energy and spirit to be a contender. Every day, every game. Push the system, push the play, support the best players so that they can push the river.
I will also mention that it is imperative to support the goaler.
You can be sure that teams that go deep know what their goaler’s soft spots are and do everything to protect that and support them.
In saying that and reading about Blumel, I think walking him is a mistake if he wasn’t wanting out.
Heavy enough, tenacious, shooter, worth investment compared to many kept limping along that they won’t use.
I read few accounts that Blumel has a 4-yer deal with Pardubice without an out clause.
EliteProspects verifies the length of the contract.
I don’t think the Oilers had the ability to sign him. I gather the player is happy playing where he is given the contract he is under.
Too bad Edm didnt have players like Beauviller and Barzal ….& Dobson…
?
Man, giving Peter Chiarelli the first star for that game just rubs salt in the wound.
Coleman will fit in well with the Oilers with plays like that.
Did he just become more affordable? 😉
Was just about to post the same thing.
Lesson learn
That was a quick OT.
Love game 7s!
I didn’t remember this from 2016 draft before Day 2
“Debrincat if still there at #32. Please!!!
If not Adam Fox. 5’10”, 185 lbs RHD going to Harvard next season 59pts in 64 games in USDP. 22 pts in 25 GP in USHL.
McKeen’s #27
Future Considerations #36
Draft Buzz #30
TSN #55
Craig Button #38
“He set the program’s single-season record for points by a defenceman, with 59. Fox was dominant at every level he played this year. He led all USHL defenders in primary points per game, points per game, and even-strength primary points per game. At the U18s, Fox led all blue-liners in scoring with nine points and was named the tournament’s best defenceman.” – Habs Eye on the Prize
“Fox projects as a top-four blueliner and likely a power-play quarterback. He compares a bit to John Klingberg stylistically.” – from THW Next Ones profile.”
Debrincat or Adam Fox would have been nice.
Always bet on the Harvard defenseman.
It’s a factory.
Dirty Cross check knocks Kutcherov out of the game
why doesn’t this league protect its stars?
Lou had a conversation with Gary before the playoffs started, and told him how the playoffs had to be refereed for the Islanders to win.
And the Habs were eavesdropping
That was filthy.
Right in front of the ref
Karma
Listed below is the complete list of infractions that I can adequately describe as penalties in the NHL:
Delay of Game
Some fans say calling too many penalties can dictate the outcome of the game. LOL
Cross-checking is permitted…just ask Shea Weber.
To what extent is do owners influence the league? And why are they not protecting their investments?
Apropos of nothing in particular. FU…Peter Chiarelli.
Had he done nothing else but draft from Bob MacKenzie’s list, the Oilers would be a powerhouse.
You mean like passing on a top 5 player in the league for Sam Bennett?
that would have fixed everything
Draisatl was a MacTavish pick.
MacTavish would still be around if he didn’t hire the goofball Eakins.
I’m seeing a lot of comments about having to choose between Nuge, Hyman, Coleman, Landeskog, Hall etc.
You’ve got to be very careful with this line of thinking. Holland has to play this exactly like he did the goalies last year even if he’s left without a chair when the music stops.
There are worse things than starting August with 25 million in cap space and all the top UFAs off the board. In fact, that might even be my strategy.
What were Cap Space’s stats last season?
Being cap cautious and having cap space is preferable to overspending on a UFA retirement contract on the wrong player. Almost all teams have at least one contract that is less than value that they would like to unload.
It’s not a binary choice.
Says a Canucks fan
How did Colorada get Toews?
Joe caught Lou napping.
Cap space
What transaction from last year do you prefer?
Torey Krug- UFA 7 years x 6.5 M
Devon Toews- 2nd round pick the RFA 4 x 4M
We know who the Torey Krugs are already…RNH, Hyman, Hamilton
We don’t yet know who the Devon Toews are but that’s where I’d prefer to shop
Great post.
While I think its important not to overpay (including with respect to term) – see Hyman, I’m not so sure that the org can be quite that risk adverse given the holes on the team (some of which will be filled with internal re-signs).
The only UFA agents that are worth it are top of roster players that you can’t get any other way.
Like Hamilton.
otherwise you are very likely to regret a 2nd 3rd line or pairing long term contract
Excellent point.
I consider Hall to be an elite talent and would welcome him here at the right price, same with Hamilton. Those guys are hard to trade for.
The others? You are bang on.
Every year there are teams unexpectedly fell off contention and sometimes they undergoes management change firesale.
The best time to get UFA is near mid season with the original team floundering and agree to pick up 25% salary retain.
Bye Bye Blumel.
https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/edmonton-oilers-move-on-from-prospect-matej-blumel-but-why
For a Canucks fan, you follow the Oilers closer than I do. 🙂
Actually not a Canucks fan but I am exposed a lot to them because of geography.
After having been totally turned off by the Oilers long term incompetence, I began to follow the Western Conference teams with much interest with an eye toward how the teams are constructed.
Speaking of which, is it possible the Oilers just forgot about Blumel?
Would not surprise me in the least.
So you put in all of that effort to be a homer for the Canucks and you are not even a fan of them?
Wow. The Oilers sure did a number on you.
What excites me most going into next season is how Seattle builds its team.
There are some really big brains working on it.
The effort being put in is to take every transaction, non-transaction, piece of information, etc. and finding a negative Oilers spin to it, making up false facts if necessary.
Everybody’s Talking.
Jeff Chapman (@NewWaveOil) Tweeted:
blümel just turned 20, and had an impressive season in the czech league. did the oilers mean to cut him loose? https://t.co/45VdNaz1Yr
https://twitter.com/NewWaveOil/status/1407875315846811652?s=20
You’re late troll
this was already discussed
So why you bringing it up again?
I still think a number of people are severely under rating Broberg.
Just because you would have chose other players better does not mean you don’t like Broberg
hes gonna have a long career and I’m glad Holland understands you need big defensemen
where did all those 5’10 5’11 defensemen go
3 of them played for the Oilers this past season and 2 are under contract for 21/22.
My theory is with the D the Oilers will have in two to three years and assuming the Oilers use their first round draft pick on one of the two highly rated goalies ( assuming one is available ) they will only need a small amount of luck with forward development to be a playoff team for a decade.
That Nick Leddy is still one heck of a hockey player! His puck skills must be rubbing off on the younger guys like Pelech. Confidence and creativity from the back end. I suspect it is why people like Barrie, warts and all.
I have to confess that I don’t know enough about the juniors to come up with any reasonable list of draft preferences. I have had peasant view TV and NHL subs for the past decade or so, limiting my exposure to hockey. Instead I rely on the ‘suggested serving’ offered by our gracious host and I enjoy reading the passionate views of others.
I like watching junior hockey and do take credit for Vasilevsky being such a great pick for the Bolts after seeing him (at least I think it was him) during some hotel room watching of the WJC.
I did like Drai, it seemed he was just too damn skilled, big and strong to ignore. I would have chosen Tyler over Taylor but was so happy to watch Hall wheel and careen around with abandon.
I realize now that my NHL draft choice strategy have mirrored a techique honed during my university days in Saskatoon many years ago. I would skip classes and take 10 bucks down to Marquis Downs and watch the thoroughbreds run. I would place a 2 dollar bet on a horse – based on the name of the horse, my colour preference (colour of silks) and the opposite view of the most obnoxious poster ( I mean person in the stands) within earshot. Not much has changed and I am still at least $4 up.
What is the list of forward free agents that can be signed in replacement of Nuge that will make the team better?
Landeskog
Danault (maybe)
Hall (maybe)
I don’t think swapping Nuge for Hyman, Saad, Tatar, Coleman, etc. makes the team better.
I don’t think there is any chance Landskog signs with the Oiler so, unless they are signing acquiring one of the other two and another legit forward, I think they need to find a way to make it work with Nuge – and I think they will.
This past season should not sully the important piece Nuge has been over the years (and I don’t think he’s near regression years and will bounce back to historical norms).
This player touches so many parts of the game.
There may not be a UFA that we can legitimately sign that is as good or better than Nuge, but there may be a number of trade candidates that are.
The problem being that there are more holes than there are trade assets. Not sure who we would want to trade that would return a top six LW.
If Broberg, Bouchard and Samorukov are the top prospects, I’m not sure any of them would bring back a good top LW unless a cap strapped team has to pull the chute (which is a possibility)
have you seen my teeth anywhere?
Check OP’s drawers.
Exactly. As I have mentioned to you before I tend to agree with you when you point out that there are many other teams with more trade capital available to go after upgrades in that market.
Where we tend to disagree is when you then also complain that Holland isn’t doing much.
I will be joining you after this summer but up until now I think he has been conservative out of necessity – this team needed some stability and less chaos imo as well as time to clean up Chiarelli’s crap.
That cleanup is not completely finished but it is time to fix the 3C and 1G positions at least this summer. Those two moves should be doable at a minimum.
Yeah who would ever want a big defenseman on a ELC?those guys have absolutely no value, especially in a flat cap world.
Oh and which ones are getting traded?
For sure there are. The only point I was making is that UFA is not the only way to fill holes. A competent management group should be looking at UFA, trade, offer sheets, internal development, etc. as avenues to fill gaps on the team. They should also be willing to change on the fly based on market conditions, internal development, injuries, team balance and a number of other factors when making these decisions. We’ve seen a number of good management groups remake a team or fill a large number of holes in one off season by taking this approach. Media and fans (and unfortunately often our management group) sometimes only look at one path to team building. If Holland has a 3 year plan or whatever it is and he’s competent, this should be revised and updated on an ongoing basis based on the fact that the variables the plan is predicated on are constantly shifting.
Yes, of course, there may be trade candidates that are better – Sam Reinhart for example. Of course, to trade for a forward that will improve the team more than Nuge, that will take considerable assets.
It all depends on what you think they’re lacking and who can help better that.
I think it’s pretty clear the current roster es no bueno in the heart of the game.
And in games that take space and rushes away.
Which is playoff games especially the deeper you go.
If Nuge played every game like he did the elimination game, I’d be all in. But he doesn’t.
His strengths don’t coincide with what they need for me. He once was the best player, now he’s probably 4th.
If he would fit as a Danault style hard match 3C, awesome. Except he still isn’t strong on faceoffs.
And probably wants too much salary based on his current one, which was a mistake at least two times made around that time.
It’s a conundrum.
Have not seen enough of Cossa to be sure, but taking a G in the first round is not crazy if the guy is clearly elite. Lots of G drafted high work out, but you have to be picking a guy who is clearly and unusually skilled. The question is whether Cossa is really that good. I’m pretty sure Wallstedt is the goods, but not convinced about Cossa.
The Oilers have picked 2 G in their history. One guy (Fuhr) played over 800 games and is in the HoF, while the other (Dubnyk) has played 542 games and has had an outstanding career. Too bad the GM trash talked for no reason him all summer and then traded him after he was sub-par for less than 1/2 season. MacT doing that was almost as bad as the Petry gaff. The dummy threw away a 1RD and 1G in their mid-twenties for almost nothing.
Is Wallstedt the real goods or the HH goods though?
I believe I was all in on Cozens, with Zegras, Krebs… and Tomasino? For a d-man I liked Soderstrom more than Broberg methinks. I especially liked Tomasino on a trade down if I recall correctly.
Will say straight out – would be okay with losing RNH if we got Danault. Danault is a saw-off and that is a hell of a thing (though Price helps of course). I still remember Mike Peca.
Will also note, in referring to Cozens, that I did not see the Detroit pick (Seider) coming AT ALL and it is only in hind-sight that I see there was a trade-up option available there (pending cost of course).
I’m allowing comments on the Raiders player (Nassib) but we are not a group that can handle these subjects well. So, if you see nine of your posts deleted, this is why. Nothing too crazy so far, but I’ve been reading you bunch for 16 years and it’s a very difficult subject for a hockey blog.
Agreed, but if you think it’s difficult talking football on a hockey blog, you should see how difficult it is talking hockey on a football blog. Most of those ignorant fools don’t know jack about hockey.
Haha.
I’m totes cool with letting it go. Just thought it was neat that Al Davis’ legacy continues after his death.
Slats was never the Commissioner of a league like Davis was with the AFL, but I always thought the two had a lot in common. Both had success quick, excelled at the dual role of HC & GM, revolutionized their sports with offensive systems, and were known for giving castoffs a second chance. They also chafed under the financial realities of a small market team. And they’re both absolutely beloved by their respective organizations.
I wish I still remembered the majority of the prospects/picks I wanted at the time of each draft. I could go back through the old posts and search but it’s not worth the effort.
The only thing I know for certain is that I was very anti-Bennett that draft year having watched many games in Kingston and seeing Bennett bad (also getting totally owned by Ekblad who was definitely a man amongst boys in that draft class), which made me pro-Leon kind of by default. I’m clearly thrilled with how that worked out.
I believe I was also against one of the goalers, Wells, who I saw bad in Peterborough. But at the end of the day I’m a sociologist not a scout, so what the hell do I know?!
In other recent years I think I liked Newhook and Turcotte, was not sold at all on Broberg and Wheeler’s video series on Bouchard made me a believer in him ahead of Dobson. But that’s about all my goldfish brain can really remember. Once we get into lower rounds I’m worthless.
I was yelling for Caufield at laptop screen, not sure if I posted it here, but if I posted it anywhere it’d be here.
Does anyone know how to search one’s old comments? I’d love to be able to brag about this! Just don’t search far enough back to see my Bennett over Draisailt posts.
You did indeed want Caufield?
Type the draft date into the search function.
dessert1111
“hoping for Caufield. how do you score that many goals and not go top 10”?
Thanks Jofa! Good tip 🙂
Now I’m curious how many Benson/Schremp comments Jofa has posted..
I tried to look it up but you have over 1,000 comments since 2012 and I couldn’t narrow the field. I might try later but don’t have time rn.
Over 1000?! What will my employers think!
That’s a lot of good dessert!
I don’t want to toot my own horn, but I had Bennett over Draisaitl. Just think how better off the organization would be if they would have made the far superior pick in Bennett. Moving forward I would appreciate it if you guys would give me more credit for spotting talent?
Props to Carl Nassib and the Las Vegas Raiders on yesterday’s announcement.
Continues the Raiders’ legacy as one of the most progressive orgs in sport.
First Latin American HC
First African American HC
First female front office exec
First active roster gay player
The maverick Al Davis would be proud.
As Goodell said yesterday, hopefully we’ll reach a point someday where announcements like this are no longer necessary.
The difference with Carl is that the Raiders likely didn’t know he was gay when they acquired him. They do get props for the other hires, but with this, it’s a start and a good example.
Props to Carl. And for the rest of us who played team sports, if you think you have never played with or against a gay player, then you are wrong.
Why is sexual orientation in sports again?
I don’t see Nassib coming out without the team’s full support. I’m not sure why they had to know he was gay prior to acquiring the player to get credit for their support now.
Nassib also donated $100k to charity which makes this more newsworthy and less spotlight seeking imo. This seems much less about virtue signalling and much more about breaking ground. Would not surprise me to see a handful of players quickly follow suit.
That’s not what I’m saying, nor was it an accusation of virtue signaling. The point is that it’s all about perception. Players are scared ( and quite rightly, judging from the past) that they will be discriminated against should it be publicly known that they do not conform to what the team perceive as societal norms.
Where you don’t see a problem, other people, particularly those who ARE discriminated against, do. I really hope Carl has started a trickle that will lead to a waterfall.
Anyways, we’d better let this one lie, and agree that this can only be a good thing for the world in general.
You ask the same question posed in Book Five of Plato’s Republic – written as a comedy.
This is true lol. Not another PhD in philosophy? “They” are everywhere ?
Quite frankly, they’re not. Next!
Big step for Nassib. props and best wishes to him.
In line with what JT said earlier, also expect a lot of bi-sexual players out there (no puns intended in any of that) and, most probably, even a few queers.
And some Pans?
20017 – I was on the Logan Couture train when we took Gagner. I’m sorry I don’t have screen shots to back it up, but I posted on it here.
2008 – I liked Eberle.
2009 – I liked MPS, but he was definitely a cautionary tale for low-scoring forwards.
2010 – I wanted Seguin – I miss Hall.
2011 – I wanted to trade down and get Landeskog. I was Okay with Nuge
2012 – I was wrong about Yakupov, but suspect we’d have been wrong about Ryan Murray too. The good news about failing on Yakupov is no one else got to succeed on yakupov while we failed on someone else. Bad for the player, better for the ego.
2013 – I wanted Nichushkin or to trade down for Lazar – so glad we have Nurse instead. 2014 – I wanted Leon – I think Jaxon or one of the other posters was talking about him and I got on board that February or March.
2015 – After we won the lottery, I didn’t care anymore. After I found out 2 days after the draft that Chiarelli scuttled big parts of the rest of the draft by making those trades I almost threw up on my keyboard. An impressive performance still, but what could have been…
2016 – I wanted Dubois. JP is a great consolation prize.
2017 – I was worried about Yamamoto being small and having Eberle being a smaller RW too. Good thing they fixed that after the draft! *Faceplam*
2018 – I wanted Whalstrom of Dobson. Islanders got both. Bastards.
2019 – ANY forward. Broberg was not the pick I wanted. Decent pick, but not right for this team and its needs IMO.
2020 – I liked Perrault. Hope Holloway is the better pick.
2012 – I was sold on Galchenyuk.
2013 – Had almost the exact same preference. Very happy to be wrong there.
2014 – Also wanted Leon. I believe it was Romulus Apotheosis with the Nostradamus like scouting reports.
2015 – I wanted Marner before the lottery. “Don’t think! Just take Barzal” I screamed as pick 16 approached.
2016 – Very much the same.
2017 – I wanted Tolvanen, but Yamamoto was my second choice. Actually, I really wanted Suzuki but it became clear in the week leading up that he wouldn’t fall to us.
2018 – One of the few drafts since I started following prospects that I paid literally zero attention to.
2019 – already posted elsewhere: At the time of our pick I wanted Zegras > Newhook > Krebs > Caufield
2020 – I wanted Lapierre or Grieg. Holloway is looking better than both but there’s a lot of road left.
2021 – You guys are doing a good job selling me on Cossa, but my mind isn’t made up.
Man, (Bruins picks aside haha) the entire 2015 first round was Incredible.
One of the things I like best about Ken Holland is that he sounds and acts like a guy who is going to do his best to build this team whether or not he is around for a Stanley Cup party.
Ill bet a buck he has cap room left at the end of the summer.
I caught a number of 67’s games (including one live) in his draft year, and in each and every one, Ryan Martindale shone like a diamond. I thought we got the steal of the draft when we got him.
I also thought Johan Motin was going to be our Nik Hjalmarsson.
I thought Yakupov was the right pick, but I got VERY worried about what we had in him when I watched him internationally. He just didn’t look like the kid his numbers suggested, and since I didn’t see a single Sarnia game with him, it did make me wonder.
I really wanted us to land Scott Glennie too and was disappointed when Dallas took him. That went away 1 pick later when MPS wasn’t taken and would be available for us.
But Eberle was an early target for me and I couldn’t have been happier we were able to get him. I knew he was going to be one of the better players to come out of that draft.
I also hated the Plante pick straight away, but I was hardly alone in that.
If I said, “Man, if the Habs win the Stanley Cup, Carey Price is going to end up stealing the Conn Smythe away from Corey Perry”
What year would you think it was?
There’s a range there but substituting ‘Stamkos’ for Perry works too
Leavins had an interesting take on Nuge in his most recent “9 things” piece. The wording is interesting, so I’ll quote the entire passage. Please read the entire piece if you haven’t done so already.
https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/in-a-league-where-death-is-the-status-quo-the-edmonton-oilers-need-to-get-the-better-players-9-things
“And look…all 3 of Nugent-Hopkins, Hyman and Hall are “good” players. But who has the resume as the more impact performer? Who drives the game 5v5? Whose team made it to the 2nd round of the playoffs this past season? Zach Hyman’s career year is 21 goals and 41 points. Nuge is arguably coming off his worst.
I believe the Oilers are in the driver’s seat with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, just as Hall likely is in Boston and Hyman with the Maple Leafs.
But if Edmonton doesn’t get the better player(s), they risk landing on the status quo. And I don’t know anyone who’ll be o.k. with that.”
The answer to all three of Leavins’ questions is Taylor Hall.
Leavins is well-connected and I’m trying to parse exactly what he’s saying here.
He seems to be saying all three players are good but that Taylor Hall is the best of the three. If the Oilers are cognizant of that, does that mean they wait for Hall to set the market before signing Nuge? Does it mean they make a play for Hall before Nuge?
I may be reading too much into it, but he also says the Oilers are in the driver’s seat with Nuge. Then he says Hall is in the driver’s seat with Boston and Hyman with Toronto, which is different. Maybe that’s a typo, but I actually think his wording matches reality.
Sounds almost like Holland thinks he can sign one of the three, the order of preference is Hall>Nuge>Hyman, and that Nuge’s position is a bit weaker than we think.
I think everyone including Holland wants Nuge back (on the right contract). But, imo, Holland’s leverage exists in the fact that Nuge’s $6m could be spent effectively elsewhere.
And although I dont think Leavins is implying any inside information regarding the Nuge negotiations, if I’m Holland, I definitely want to have a firm understanding of the availibilty/price of both Hall and Landeskog.
Sometimes we get fooled thinking the grass is greener on the other side of the fence.?
He has made several innuendos.
One that I caught at the end was the pluralization in “get the better player(s)” which could be construed to mean that he’s implying that the Oilers might get two of the three.
It was also somewhat confusing phrasing implying that the Oilers, Hall, and Hymen are the ones in the driver’s seat.
Wouldn’t that be odd if we replaced 93 with Hall and Hymen?
Hall is obviously the one who’s has the most impactful career at 5v5.
Is there a way to run Hall – Nuge – Yamamoto as a second line without screwing up the money situation for every other position on the team? Because that would make me a very happy Oilers fan. I’d also enjoy watching the Bruins get shafted in their trade after the saddled us with Chiarelli.
I haven’t done the work on Capfriendly or Puckpedia to build the team but, yes, I would think there would be a way to get both Hall and Nuge and make the money work.
Would $12M-$13M between them do it? I think that would be more than enough at the high end. I don’t think Hall is in the $7M plus range for term any longer. He simply hasn’t produced enough recently to warrant that in the current financial environment.
This probably means that Benson/Holloway are competing for 3LW (maybe with Kahun) and either a Wenberg in the $3.5M range for 3C OR a similar paid 2LD as a stop-gap (if needed).
Of course Nuge has the ultimate leverage in free agency as do the others.
Hell, Seattle could easily sign all three.
I read it that way as well. He seems to be signalling the Oilers would take Hall first if that option is on the table.
In my opinion, the correct answer is Brandon Saad. I think he’s the best fit as McDavid’s LW. Bigger than Nuge. As good offensively as Nuge. Also a good skater. Unlike Hyman has a consistent history of production. Younger than Hyman and without the injury history. Will be cheaper than Hall.
And is fearless going to the net.
Would be an upgrade.
One thing to note on Klefbom, the “exempt” due to career-threatening list was put out the other day and Klef is not on it.
I am not surprised by this but some thought he would be exempt. He either needs to be protected or he is available to Seattle.
Does this imply the existence of new information about Klef’s prognosis, or is the determination based on what was known at the time of his surgery?
Not to me – I never felt that, unless something changed, he’d be exempt.
He had surgery with the view to playing NHL hockey in the future. Last we heard, surgery went well, he was starting rehab and training and would get together with management in July for updates and process.
It may be futile, he may never play again, but that doesn’t seem the course all involved are working towards.
Does Seattle get access to his medical info??
im curious how this works
Probably doesn’t matter as I doubt they would select him in any event. Too much risk and they will have lots of options.
What risk? The upside of Klef is huge (as a free player) and what’s the risk? Missing out on the upside of Jones or Benson or Kahun? We know what you think of these players so, really, no risk given your assessment of these players, right?.
It’s entirely likely Klefbom will never be the same player ever again.
As someone who has had major shoulder surgery, I can tell you the strength and range of motion of the shoulder can be impaired.
That arthritis is also involved complicates issues even further.
None of that is either here or there – what is there so much risk for Seattle? The risk is losing the upside of players you don’t think have any. You are even positing Seattle will take an RFA from the Oilers and walk from the player.
So, what is the big risk for Seattle?
Drafting a player who plays poorly and using more than $4 million in cap space to find out.
If that’s what happens he would have little to no trade value so they would be stuck with him
There will be better and safer options.
Good GMs can weaponize an LTIR contract.
Have you all heard that apparently Matt Blumel is no longer an Oilers prospect?
https://twitter.com/PuckPedia/status/1407585700191473666
My guess is that this is arising from a quirk where Blumel went to University of Connecticut for a few weeks before signing with Pardubice but never played a NCAA game. It’s unclear whether Puckpedia has this right or not though.
Can’t delete the comment now, but I only just noticed who tweeted the original question and apparently this was discussed yesterday.
Are you talking about my tweet to PuckPedia last night?
The Habs have got Vegas on the ropes. This series is as good as over.
I always used to like to remark that in my opinion that Jeff Petry would eventually play on a cup winner.
I’ll be cheering for him / them but Tampa is going to be a tough out – player for player, they match or exceed Habs (including G) … but hey, maybe it’s the North’s turn
Trading Petry was MacT’s worst move as GM. It’s right up there with the Reinhart trade for Chiarelli. Both major blunders that didn’t need to happen.
My most memorable hits and misses in recent history were desperatley wanting Draisaitl ( I could not understand how anyone could have watched the Memorial Cup and not wanted this beast of a man).
As for misses ( and there have been dozens) For different reasons, I was just as emotionally driven in wanting Yakupov. Well we all know how that turned out.
Finally, I can remember hoping hard that goalie Zachery Fucale would fall to us at pick #37 in the second round of the 2013 draft. And those @#$%$#@ Habs swooped in and stole him out from under us with pick 36.
Of course Mactavish went on to parlay pick 37 in cascading fashion into 3 extra picks (or some such thing).
I’ll never know if MacT would have picked Fucale if he was still there at 37.
Draisaitl went to the Memorial Cup after the Oilers drafted him. But he was a beast in his final junior year. They don’t keep track of Corsi in the WHL, but if they did, Draisaitl was probably running 80-90% CF after he was traded to Kelowna.
Oops Old man memory.
Reminds me of when the Oilers won the cup in 2006 and I was there.
I attended a game that Draisaitl played with the Rockets here in Victoria, and I swear he had the puck all night long. He was a man playing with children.
Frank Seravalli (@frank_seravalli) Tweeted:
Personal news: I’m baaack. I’m joining https://t.co/Xh8SqeOZ6w. Let’s Go https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/13.0.1/svg/2b07.svg https://t.co/nQhyDUu0fq
https://twitter.com/frank_seravalli/status/1407730303532158982?s=20
There are two guys that Frank listed who would be nice targets: Conor Garland and Warren Foegele. Garland is small but highly skilled and would be perfect on Draisaitl’s RW. Foegele plays a tough game and is more skilled than his numbers show (he’s blocked in Carolina). Neither guy would break the bank.
Foegele-McDavid-Puljujarvi
xxx-Draisaitl-Garland
Benson-xxx-Yamamoto
xxx-McLeod-Archibald
VOR was pimping Foegele before he popped (Necas too), he’d be a great addition.
Foegele has popped? He scored 0.38 P/GP this year – just a hair ahead of Chiasson (0.36) and Neal (0.34). If the cost is a 2nd, I’m shopping elsewhere.
That’s mostly even strength scoring. Chiasson and Neal were scoring on the PP. And Foegele can skate while the two vets’ wheels have fallen off. I think Foegele could put up way more offense (0.6-0.7 ppg) with a guy like McDavid or Draisaitl. And you don’t have to commit to an overpriced UFA contract.
So you’d rather give up a pick and then commit to an overpriced RFA contract?
Just to point out, LT’s title ‘Where Is Your List’ should be sung to the tune of Pixies’ ‘Where Is My Mind’.
While I understand this is late and somewhat blasphemous re yesterday’s thread and a discussion of value McDavid vs Draisaitl. Contract notwithstanding which player makes the players around him better?
The numbers say McDavid but it’s interesting how their styles contrast.
Through the sheer volume of chances he creates, Cheatcode McDavid creates rebounds and second shot chances constantly. With his long reach and box out style, Draisaitl has the better half court game once zone possession is established.
For those reasons, I like McDavid’s game better off the rush but give Leon a slight edge on the cycle.
The one thing I’d absolutely like to see Connor evolve into his game is more curls inside the blueline to feed a trailing W or D ala Gretzky. There’s a few too many 1 on 2 or 1 on 3 rush attempts for my liking. As exciting as those are when he pulls them off, if he threatened the trailer pass more often, than the D would really be in a quandary. They have to back off to respect his speed, but if they back off too far, it creates the perfect opportunity for the dish to the breaking trailer.
Nailed it, agree wholeheartedly.
Maybe he could learn to set up shop behind the net and feed the open option when the opposition tries to double team him, too.
That’s a brave and accurate observation – the ‘Gretzky curl’ would get D thinking twice about collapsing going ‘Gio’ on #97. McD’s line mates (or Darnell) should arrive just in time for a feed to the high slot or back door.
Good post PoB.
Now only if McDavid had some scorers he could pass to when he curls up (excl Drai of course).
Well we have very capable D that’s smart enough to join the rush sneak in at the opportune time and make a tape to tape pass on a dime but instead he’s a snap chat cheerleader which is costing us games.
Is ‘snap chat cheerleader’ a compliment?
Yes, Tyson Barrie is indeed elite at joining the rush and making plays on the rush (and starting the rush) – better than his PP or puck moving game.
I think he helped Darnell in that area this season as well.
Probably helped Bouch as well – by practicing and watching – we’ll see Bouch involved offensively ALOT in 2021/22 (and the future).
I had McDavid right out of the gate. Nailed It!
Who is this McDavid??
Young kid in the pipeline. Tracking well. Fair to middling NHLE.
Like Godot, I watched Broberg a lot at the Hlinka. Liked the player very much in that tourney and remain high on him as a prospect.
Very rare to see such a fluid skating stride in a player this tall. Jay Bouwmeester is the best comp for me based on that viewing. Alongside Nurse, the Oil will have a couple gazelles.
If Philip develops better gap coverage and a plus shot, I believe this player projects as a true elite 1D. Like Hedman however, he may take some time to hit his ceiling.
Can’t wait to see Broberg and McDavid through the neutral zone together. #SpeedKills
I’m surprised people turned on him so quickly. I mean, I understand disappointment, I wanted Arthur Kaliyev at No. 8, but once a player is drafted people usually wait to see how things turn out.
I’ve watched his progress, and he’s ahead of Klefbom all down the line. Why would people be disappointed in another Oscar Klefbom? And what if he’s better? Unusual reaction by many fans.
Yeah, if he turns out to be Bouwmeester, that has to be considered a great draft pick.
LT, I think a couple of reasons:
(1) new GM, what’s he going to pick, oh a Swedish d-man and was a reach at where he was picked according to all of the lists (worry over “Smartest Man in the Room”);
(2) the forward prospect cupboard has been bare for some time. Getting Lavoie was a major victory in the 2nd round, but at the time, we didn’t know about Klefbom’s injury and it looked like LHD was probably going to be set for years at a time, whereas getting a potential gamebreaker in Zegras or Caufield (or Kaliyev) had appeal.
We live in an immediate gratification world now and the fans wanted a plug & play W. The longer Ken seems unable to fill the need, the more the dissent grows. This despite him salvaging the Puljujarvi situation.
I suspect the analytics lads that specialize in positional cap value assessment love the Broberg pick. You simply can’t acquire or trade for this player in his prime. You can only draft him or pay a fortune in free agency like the Knights did with Pietrangelo.
Building down the middle is what smart GMs do. I’m amazed at fans that still want to build from the outside in. We’ve seen that movie before. It doesn’t end well.
Immediate gratification may arrive by opening night in October.
Broberg and Samorukov are the future and Tipp already likes Broberg.
I suspect both play NHL games this season and that one of them makes the team out of camp. Both possess ingredients that are in short supply (size and skating ability).
Both are already battle-tested as pros playing in defensive roles.
Samorukov’s KHL season is not too different from Romanov’s final KHL season, and the latter did fine in a bottom pairing role this season.
Great post. I’ve been thinking about the Jets lately, they have centers at center and centers on the wing. It’s not a bad idea.
The Oil have the toughest pieces to get. Outscoring C.
That’s the most astonishing thing about the VGK build for me. They’ve found gold with Karlsson first and now Stephenson, but their success has largely come from their superior Ws and active D.
Their Top 6 scoring has really dried up vs the Habs. Fans booing last night. Seriously Vegas, how spoiled are you? If they can’t get over the hump, I think it fuels the fire that you need elite Cs to win it all.
Broberg is tracking well for sure, particularly given the injuries he has endured.
Let’s not forget that while Zegras was lighting up the WJC, Broberg was playing through an AC injury and a quadriceps contusion. His skating was clearly hampered.
Broberg could rise very quickly. I suspect he will play a half season in the AHL max and be up for good after that.
Yup. Samorukov being the complication. If Sammy breaks camp with the team – I think about a 50-50 chance – can Tippett deal with a second rookie LD while Bouchard is playing his first real season on the right side?
Million dollar question.
As per Leavins, Tipp and Holland disagreed on player development/usage. He can only be talking about Jones and Bouchard.
Tipp’s record on young D is getting spotty.
He was too quick to punish Bear this season for the latter’s mistakes. Benched in game 4 of overtime, but even before that he was yanking Bear out of the lineup and cutting his minutes. Jones had bad results but good underlying numbers early with Larsson and was yanked. Around that time, Larsson was having issues.
What helps is that Samorukov has also proven himself as a shutdown KHL D. Broberg is already loved by coaches and management, so for him it’s just a matter of time.
What gets paid/rewarded?
Consistency and Accountability.
It is really the same reaction as over Smith in reverse.
Smith went from a ‘washed up old geezer’ to a ‘I would re-sign him’ in the same time period that Broberg went from a #1 dman in the making to a bust.
The long view is often in short supply. 😉
I think once Broberg is healthy and plays in Edmonton minds will change quickly.
The “problem” with Broberg is that he is such an unusual prospect with an extremely rare skill set.
Godot aptly riffed on this below, when he said coaches don’t know what to do with him.
The Oilers have never had a D prospect with Broberg’s skill set. The only guy who comes close with skating ability is Nurse, but Broberg is already a better skater than him.
I will go as far to say as no Oiler D or prospect in the almost 20 years I’ve spent following the team have Broberg’s aptitude on the zone entry.
Broberg’s zone entries are Makar-like (not saying he will be that good but it’s the name that comes to mind). He is lightening fast and is built like the Burj Khalifa. It’s hard to compare that with the gaudy boxcars of Zegras and Caufield.
I have no idea how good he’ll be, but he will play. He is certainly the most interesting prospect we’ve ever had.
If he goes to the AHL it will be with a backpack, not a suitcase.
Or possibly an IKEA tote bag.
Impatience – legitimate or not. Many feel the clock is ticking on the McDrai window and there remains many holes to fill.
The only thing worse than building methodically is panic trading, we all saw that in 2015 with Chiarelli. Holland has free-agent dollars to spend this summer, but expecting bam! Stanley would be a mistake imo.
Did that many people really turn on him? Admittedly with your gigs and this site you’re hearing and reading comments from more people than I talk hockey with, but I don’t know too many that have soured on him at all.
Holland? Oh yeah, lots of Oilers fans are very unhappy with Holland. Ironically, the Devin Shore signing set people off. 12-14F signing. I don’t understand it, but it’s out there for sure.
My bad, I thought you were referring to Broberg. Holland, different story for sure.
Gah. You may be right. I forgot that conversation. God. This is a new low.
Me on Lowetide re: draft 2019:
Pre draft:
“This is my, “Holy shit! What if it turns out like this for the 5 year re-draft?!?!” list:
1. Bowen Byram
2. Kaapo Kakko
3. Alex Turcotte
4. Dylan Cozens
5. Philip Tomasino
6. Arthur Kaliyev
7. Jack Hughes
8. Raphael Lavoie
9. Cole Caufield
10. Spencer Knight”
Draft day after Cozens got picked:
“Fuck!”
“Kaliyev? Caufield?”
“Tomasino? Haha, I know, I know.”
Draft day after they picked Broberg:
“sigh”
“4 D in the top 11. That’s not going according to Hoyle.”
After Day 1:
“My Ranking Next 8:
1. Arthur Kaliyev
2. Raphael Lavoie
3. Bobby Brink
4. Ethan Keppen
D:
5. Domenick Fensore
6. Jordan Spence
Speed issues but they can score:
7. Nathan Legare
8. Alex Beaucage”
Draft day 2 after Lavoie picked:
“Woohoo!!!!!! I’m getting drunk today. Suddenly, it’s a great draft!”
Post draft Summary:
“Best haul:
NYR Kakko, Trouba (cheating?)
AVS Byram, Newhook
NJD Hughes
LAK Turcotte, Bjornfot
BUF Cozens, Johnson
ANA Zegras, Tracey
I’m tempted to move LAK and BUF ahead of Hughes, but most people have way more faith in Hughes than I do.
Best Haul in Comparison to draft Position:
NSH #24 Tomasino (I think he’s a top 8, maybe better)
NYI #23 Holmstrom (this year’s Tyler Benson)
Biggest Surprise Riser:
DET #6 Seider
Biggest Bad Reach:
TBL #27 Nolan Foote”
My little rant on the Broberg pick:
“So many things to hate about this and Broberg isn’t one of them. 1) The leaks. WTF. Plug that shit. 2) The Leftorium… geezus… we’re good there. Stop it. 3) A defencemen when our biggest need is forwards, and forwards can probably have an impact a full two years sooner than most D. We don’t need to add 2 years to the picture. If he is Nurse 2.0 (see point #6), and he develops in a similar fashion he, and we agree that Nurse began to have an impact in ’17-18, then we might expect Borberg to have an impact in ’23-24, maybe a year later like, ’24-25 as he has to adjust to North American ice. That’s way too long! 4) There were players on the board who produced way more, he had 9 points in 41GP! 5) He was drafted higher than he needed to be and they probably could have traded down. That said, there was some hype and two lists had him higher than 9 (TSN’s Button, and THW’s Fischer). 6) They seem to have a near carbon copy of his size, shot, skating, and playing style already on the team in Nurse, albeit not quite as physical.
Just to repeat. I love the player, hate the pick.”
My draft would have been:
#8. Philip Tomasino
#38. Raphael Lavoie
#85. Ethan Keppen
I remember being shocked at how far Keppen fell. I would have picked Zegras at 8 but my other picks would have mirrored yours.
I can remember following that draft on this blog.
And your description:
Draft day 2 after Lavoie picked:
“Woohoo!!!!!! I’m getting drunk today. Suddenly, it’s a great draft!”
was pretty universaly shared.
we started conjecturing about Holland being smart enough to know Lavoie might be there in round 2 and so could afford to take a Dman in round 1. etc
Funny, I totally remember this thread…
I’ve been “fairly” successful in the drafts (2010+), although those first overall picks sure made it easy… I did have Draisaitl and was thrilled, and after that the only player I got right was Bouchard. For the 2019 I was hyper-focused on Kirby Dach.
CapFriendly (@CapFriendly) Tweeted:
Feature Update:
Today we released the first major team page update in years!
New features include:
-How each player was acquired
-Tool-tip for contracts that expire in a year not displayed on screen
-Updated statistics section
-Acquired method summary plot https://t.co/WVXoMpd30q
https://twitter.com/CapFriendly/status/1407722266583093253?s=20
The ‘buyout calculator’ on the main page shows the 8 players most often accessed by visitors to the site. Three are Canucks (Eriksson, Virtanen & Roussel) & two are Oilers (Neal & Koskinen).
What does that say about the state of both teams. 😉
Echoes of bad management.
Benning wears all 3 Canucks although Virtanen and his legal issues are a bit of a special case. However, as I’ve said before, they should have let him walk and signed Toffoli.
Yup. No argument from me.
I don’t know if a buyout would have been consummated but Jake has 5 points in 38 games so, even without his off-ice matters, a buyout of his $2.25M is worthy of discussion.
He’s making Kassian look value for his cap hit – well, not quite, but damn, 5 points?
Part of Caufield ability to succeed is he’s surrounded by big players that win battles and can get him the puck
Put him on an all rookie line and the size issues would become more apparent
Caufield has a very special, unique release. The Canadiens hit a real home run there. The legend of Bergevin grows. Yes he has made some mistakes, but the Danault, Petry, Subban, Suzuki, Anderson, and Caufield deals shine like diamonds.
On Broberg:
Let’s not forget that just one season ago Broberg was being given very high praise from his coach in Sweden, who said he was one of the best talents he had ever played or coached.
He had an uneven year partially attributable to injury. With that, he improved upon his scoring line from the prior season (13 points in 44 games from 8 points in 45 games).
Klef scored 2 goals in 33 games and then 3 assists in 11 games before coming to NA.
Karlsson had 10 points in 45 games in his draft+1 before going to Ottawa and never seeing the minors again.
Adam Larsson had 9 points in 37 games in his draft year.
Broberg is tracking to be an NHL D-man, I think. Starting next year, we’ll see what type.
I will agree with your assessment of Bergevin with the exception of Petry. You are golfing and you see a player in the foursome in front of you hit a ball out of bounds that is too lazy and or stupid to walk to the other side of the fairway to retrieve it. You hit yours down the middle and walk over tap the ball that was OB under the fence and find it’s a slightly used titleist Pro V1 and you put it in your bag. My question does that make you smart or just aware of what’s going on around you??
It’s a fair point but it didn’t seem as though there was exactly a bidding war for Petry at the time. That may say more about MacT than it does about Bergevin.
It was very well-known that Caufield had an elite-level shot, elite even for NHL players. The question was whether he’d be able to get to space to use it, as neither his size nor his speed were elite.
If the hardest thing in the world of hockey is scoring goals and guys like Caufield and Kaliyev are really, really good at that, maybe we should be focusing on that and not the fact that they aren’t built like Nathan MacKinnon.
I do agree the more Caufield plays, the more the video coaches will find ways to shut him down.
It’s like rookie goalies – how many times have we seen some unheralded guy come in and put up some great stats for half a season, then he gets videoed to death and the career is over? ha ha ha
I had Zegras Caufield then Broberg draft day
I wouldn’t change it
Last year I was way higher than everyone about Holloway
The Bouchard draft I had Wahlstrom above Bouch though
I did love the Yamamoto pick as his pets per 60 was top 5 level
Pets per 60 is an underrated stat. 🙂
ha!! Yes!
Pet shelter mvp
I have been high on Halloway since it was said he would be a likely pick for the Oilers. At that time I did my research and was shocked that his MVP season in the Alberta junior hockey league was so disregarded. His first year in the U.S.A was used to evaluate the player which is why he was available to the Oilers. Once again not the numbers but the interpretation of said numbers was wrong. Analytics is only as good as the people that interpret the data. The data is valid and an amazing tool but still needs smart people to interpret it correctly.
So the same as visual scouting in that regard? 😉
Just joking.
Understanding what the information is saying has always been the part requiring more skill & talent than collecting the information does.
Understanding the information is usually a function of knowing what questions are most important.
I had
Zegras, Newhook, Krebs, Caufield as my preference when our pick came up.
Honestly I don’t think I’d change it either.
Yeah Turcotte has been surprisingly disappointing to date.
Turcotte had a knee injury and a bout of mono after being drafted.
Well, that IS still disappointing.
Hopefully he’s not following the Juolevi path.
If anyone is reading this and confused, I had Turcotte on the list as my #1 “in our range” pick before the draft, but I edited after I remembered he was already gone.
LT, when a victorious Roman general was awarded a triumphal parade, on his chariot there stood behind him a slave. The slave’s job was to whisper in the general’s ear “remember thou art mortal.”
Lol, just kidding, good job on the good calls. You seem to hit more than you miss and I believe you would quit before you allowed Pete to make those trades….
Lol. It’s math that deserves the credit, me taking it is an example of vanity. However, I’m doing it anyway!! 🙂
Your success may be math but your willingness to use it as the valuable tool it is is all to your credit!
Broberg always plays better in North America than in Sweden. He plays a North American game. Swedish coaches want the next Nik Lidstrom. They want their defensemen to play like Nik Lidstrom. Broberg is Larry Robinson. They don’t know what to do with him. They keep coaching him to play like Nik Lidstrom.
It appears that the SweHL is becoming more like the KHL. Teams maybe actually hurting development of players that are going on to the NHL by not playing them in advantageous situations – the teams are interested in developing their own guys. Can’t fault them for this. Is it time for NHL teams to burn year of ELC and have some foreign prospects over in the AHL a year earlier?
As far as burning a year of that ELC, Broberg’s ELC would have slid over the last two seasons playing in the AHL just like the SHL.
The trigger for slide, if eligible, is less than 10 games in the NHL – AHL is slide-eligible.
The one difference would be for a “lesser prospect” that is in Europe with 4-year to sign before the rights are lost – this could force an earlier sign to get the player over to the AHL.
I know the Oilers loved him in the bubble, the buzz around at that time is that he would have played regular season games if they were available. I expect we’ll see him at some point during the 2021-22 season, although Samorukov’s presence complicates matters.
It’s a nice complication, though. Better than the one where we HAVE to play him because there’s literally no-one else.
They loved him and snubbed Bouchard who should of gotten into games in the Chi-Town series after Larsson went down.
Why do you think Holland drafted him?
Klefbom’s shoulder. And Holland probably as good contacts as anyone in Sweden.
In that draft, my horses were Cozens, Krebs, and Dach. I dissed the Americans. Turcotte and Boldy are taking their sweet time. Zegras is sort of on track. Caufield is doing better than I expected, but NHL coaches don’t have enough tape to figure him out yet. They may or they may not.
I saw a fair bit of the Hlinka in Edmonton when Broberg played. He was the most watchable player in the tournament. Then he went back to Sweden, never to be heard of again.
I believe my comments on Broberg in the pre-draft period was that he had as much upside potential as anyone in the draft, but probably with more risk (because of what happens when he goes back to Sweden).
So I was sort of fine with the pick when Cozens went off the board. Krebs had the knee injury pre-draft, so I was not banging the table for him anymore. So Dach went early, and when Buffalo took Cozens, the guys on my list were injured or gone.
Broberg, like Klefbom, tends to be used in a defensive role by Swedish coaches when he is playing in his peer group. He was captain of their world junior team.
And when he came to the bubble he was Hlinka Broberg again, stealing everyone’s eyes away from Bouchard.
I am really high on both Broberg and Bouchard. Big D with skill can impact the playoffs more than small D with skill, if the whistles are put away.
Great answer, but I was angling more towards Holland having Lidstrom as his lynch pin for years.
I immediately thought that too.
Yeah, I was really hoping for Cozens to fall to us. When he was taken at 7, it seemed destined that the Oil would take Broberg. Lots of track for him to go yet
I would agree with this premise and have been suggesting the same. I can’t say it with as much certainty (as we haven’t seen it other than at a teenage level) but I do think that Borberg’s game will translate better to the smaller ice and the “North American Game” and he will be more impactful playing with “better players”.
I got my comeuppance last night from some friends who are die-hard Hab fans – damn the internet sometimes. I have been bashing the Caulfield pick since the 2019 draft – you know the verbal ‘hobbit, will not make it in the NHL, etc. Looking back to 1979 it sounds similar to what people were saying about one Wayne Greztky. Anyways, it looks like I was wrong again!
I wanted one of Seider or Cozens to fall to the Oilers but alas that did not happen. Broberg over Zegras was a tough one to accept as I did not know about Klefbom’s shoulder issue and we needed high end forwards (and still do). Time will tell, but with D patience is always the key. Both Nurse and Klefbom were sent back twice and then played less than a full season in the AHL before making the big club. Broberg is fairly young for his draft class (20 on June 25th – Happy Birthday Philip) and as we have seen with other big-young men needs time to grow into his body and get some man strength. Holland is probably long gone before we can determine if the pick was a good one or not.
Are you expecting an early departure from Holland (3 more years on his deal)?
I expect we’ll see a decent amount of Broberg in that time, and if he isn’t a quality NHLer 3 years from today than it’s pretty easy to make the call.
I’m looking forward to it. I didn’t mind the pick at all and think he’s tracking well. We’ll see where it goes.
Say 1/2 – 1 year in the AHL for Broberg, leaves 2 – 2 1/2 years max in the NHL before Old Dutch is gone. I expect Holland to be the GM through the entirety of his contract and then not renewed as he will be 66 years old by then.
Neither Nurse nor Klefbom were game-changers during their ELCs and I do not expect Broberg will be either.
Lou is 78 and just won GM of the year.
Yeah, barring health problems I don’t see Holland leaving in 3 years voluntarily. He already semi-retired once and regretted it.
So if Broberg isn’t a ‘game changer’ on his ELC the pick was not a good one?
Keeping expectations reasonable and putting players in a position to succeed does not diminish the player or where they were picked. The issue I have with the pick is timing. McDrai has 4 more years to run and a high-end forward will factor in sooner than a D.
Note: I like the pick because big, smooth-skating dman are what wins in the playoffs. Just hope he can help us get that cup!
Yeah the timing of a D over F was/is among the biggest issues folks have with the Broberg pick.
In terms of timeline for an impact, you mentioned in your last post that Klefbom and Nurse weren’t game changers on ELC. I don’t really agree. Klefbom played essentially 22 minutes a night (21:58 and 21:52) in his last 2 ELC years. Nurse played 22+ in his 3rd ELC season. And both players had positive 5v5 goal differential (Klefbom +4, Nurse +13) on their ELC years 2 +3).
If Broberg is playing (and winning) top 4 minutes on his ELC you can count me as happy with the pick.
Theres so much pissing in the wind.
Way to call it out LT!
Laughed pretty hard at that.
For sure Zegras was my hope for #9, if Cozens was taken. Boldy would have been my 2nd choice, over Caufield, at the time. Broberg maybe if they picked 25th.
This is the first I’m hearing of the potential loss of Blumel’s rights. Even though he was an overager when picked it still would seem really early to lose them.
I’m sure OP and others will chime in on this, hopefully with good news.
This was discussed at length in yesterday’s thread.
Ah, thanks for the heads up
So what was the collective decision. Do the Oilers still have his rights?
After reading yesterday’s dialogue it still seems unclear. I was left feeling a bit concerned but then elite prospects, which is usually very up to date, as well as his personal Twitter bio stating “Edmonton Oilers Prospect”, both seem to indicate no change in his rights.
I agree, I read yesterdays thread and could not decide.
The deadline for signing may have changed due to the season running later but haven’t been able to find any info about it.
You may be onto the answer here, as on June 1 the Oilers actually published a future watch article on Blumel haha. The only way any of this makes sense is that the deadline was pushed fwd from June 1st due to covid, as other dates have been.
CapFriendly is pretty good with these things and doesn’t have him on the Oilers reserve list, implying he’s a FA.
That makes sense considering he was drafted from a NA league rather than Europe, which would have bought him a couple more years.
https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/reserve-list/oilers
Puckpedia tweeted “They had until June 1 to sign him and they didn’t so he’s no longer their player anymore. He was drafted out of the USHL but is not a major junior player, college player, or a player drafted from Europe so they only had 2 years.”, which is in line with what HH was saying.
OK. Thanks
I think the clause that Pouzar shared is accurate though. If he was in junior (USHL is a junior league) and then didn’t play junior in his draft +1 then he his rights are owned for four years. I think it’s a little known/used clause so it would be hard to verify without just asking the NHL about it
It seems to me that the clauses relied upon yesterday for both sides of the discussion are prefaced with “drafted as an 18 year old. Blumel I believe was 19 when drafted.
That might make it more complicated. There seem to be a number of rules that reference 18 or 19 but not in that specific section so it could go either way.
So just seeing this conversation now, but the thing that everyone seems to be missing is that Blumel appears to have attended UConn even if he didn’t actually play a game for the Huskies.
The CBA language uses “bonafide college student” and makes no distinction about games played or even playing NCAA hockey.
It’s difficult to get concrete info about Matt’s time at UConn, but my interpretation is that if he was a registered student (which it appears he was) then we have four years.
Also, as a note that many here won’t want to hear: HH is right. The CBA clearly defines “Major Juniors” and “Juniors” as equivalent terms referring exclusively to the WHL, OHL, QMJHL in Article I.
I reached out to PuckPedia last night and Hart believes they lost his rights.
The provision relating to being drafted out of major junior but leaving as an 18 or 19 year old (which extends rights) is for “Major Junior” a defined term that is essentially the CHL.
One would think the same rules would apply on being drafted out of the USHL and heading to Europe as the CHL but it may not be true.
I may have be wrong in the thread last night (and its trending that way) and, for that, I apologize to those I was discussing with and stating they were wrong and I was right.
I am still not 100% convinced the Oilers don’t maintain his rights given he left the USHL for Europe but I could be wrong on that.
Thanks OP.
For the sake of argument, let’s say the Oilers did not sign him by June 1st. I wonder if this was an oversight by the Oilers, they didn’t have interest or they did have interest and couldn’t reach a deal. I didn’t read yesterday’s thread so maybe this was discussed.
That part wasn’t discussed (i.e. if his rights were lost, what is the organiztion’s reasons).
For me, he is a prospect with up arrows and I’ve been posting for a few months now about him maybe getting an ELC this spring (even when I though they had a few more years of rights).
Maybe they still do have rights (as per Oddspell’s note), maybe the org wasn’t interested (seems unlikely), maybe the player isn’t interested in the org, maybe they will still sign him, maybe they are looking for an AHL deal (seems unlikely).