I think we have things surrounded in front of the draft and free agency, clues are arriving daily. If I had to put money on things today, the bet would be Nuge and Adam Larsson returning, Tyson Barrie and Oscar Klefbom not attending Oilers camp.
So the shopping list is as expected. Two LW’s, No. 3 center, No. 2 LHD and No. 2 RHD. Likely fewer than three rookies, maybe room for six free-agent additions if we include Nuge, Larsson and Mike Smith.
Question: Where are the bargains?
THE ATHLETIC!
I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here’s the latest!
- New Lowetide: Will the Oilers return to the WHL prospect pool in the 2021 draft?
- Lowetide: Why Oilers defenceman Evan Bouchard is poised to exceed expectations
- Lowetide: Oilers’ prospect pipeline could be at stake as AHL coach Jay Woodcroft outgrows his minor-league role
- DNB and Dom: How the Oilers should value pending UFAs
- Jonathan Willis: How the Oilers could make a Jack Eichel-level trade happen this offseason
- Lowetide: The 7 Oilers roster spots GM Ken Holland must improve this offseason
- Lowetide: Caleb Jones, Oilers reach crossroads that could land Jones in Seattle
- Lowetide: What will Oilers do if they must replace Oscar Klefbom?
- Jonathan Willis: What comes next for the Oilers’ Jesse Puljujarvi?
- Lowetide: Why Evan Bouchard, Ryan McLeod and more prospects are options for Oilers in 2021-22
- DNB: Ten teams the Oilers should be targeting for trades ahead of the Kraken expansion draft
- Lowetide: How Ken Holland’s transaction history could foreshadow the Oilers summer to come
- Lowetide: How close to NHL-ready is Oilers prospect Dmitri Samorukov?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ reasonable expectations eat dust during Connor McDavid’s dream season
- Jonathan Willis: Why some of the most popular moves Ken Holland could make would be mistakes
- Lowetide: Why huge Oil Kings goalie Sebastian Cossa could be the perfect first-round fit for the Oilers
- DNB: What I’m hearing about the Oilers’ plans for the Kraken draft
- DNB: What a perfect offseason could look like for the Edmonton Oilers
- Lowetide: What now for Ryan Nugent-Hopkins?
POSSIBLE OILERS ROSTER
This is five on five points-per-60 for forwards; Corsi five on five for defensemen, and five on five save percentage for goalies. Re-signed are Nuge, Larsson and Smith. New free-agent additions are Tatar, Helm, Goodrow, Kulikov. I think this is representative of what Holland might do this summer.
It is not my ideal lineup but there are some nice additions and the big bets are where they need to be. For instance, big money spent on LW, because Edmonton needs an overhaul. Tatar and Nuge represent $10.4 million in added cap dollars per year, as we’ll see in a moment.
I also added a third-line LW to roadblock Benson and Dylan Holloway. This is not an impossible hurdle to clear for either player btw. Helm is 34 and can still skate like the wind, but the offense has completely left him now. He’s basically current Andrew Cogliano three years later, maybe Holland will sign him instead.
I like the top two lines, am fine with Kulikov until Jones, Dmitri Samorukov or Philip Broberg are ready and would suggest to you (as I did yesterday) running Koskinen for his final season makes more sense than a buyout or some crazy retention trade.
The way goalies work, this time next season everyone will be mad Holland didn’t extend Koskinen. Goaltending is voodoo.
CAP FOR 2021-22 OILERS
This roster has James Neal bought out, Kyle Turris in Bakersfield and approaching $4 million in cap room in case Oscar Klefbom returns. Holland will have room to make a late summer addition if there’s a team with cap issues, and would have several hundred miles of room to add at the deadline.
FREE AGENCY
There’s only so much a team can do in free agency, but for Edmonton dealing assets has real danger to it. The prospects who might have high value (Philip Broberg, Dmitri Samorukov, Dylan Holloway) are going to be needed as soon as NHL-ready. You could make a case for a LH defender opening night if he won the job in training camp.
I’ve seen some hopped up rosters online and Godspeed to all of them. I don’t think Gabriel Landeskog is coming to Edmonton, don’t believe Tuukka Rask is headed north, am doubtful the Bruins let Taylor Hall loose after he played so well for them.
Expect free-agent additions, I’m less certain about trades this summer. Holland doesn’t make many, perhaps there’s a center out there that requires just cap room and not much in the way of assets out.
Holland has enormous room to maneuvre this summer. Daniel Nugent-Bowman wrote an excellent trade piece for The Athletic recently, focused on teams the Oilers could target. The CBJ, Nashville and Tampa Bay are all attractive options.
COPYCAT LEAGUE
NHL teams copy successful clubs every summer, and I expect the theme this year will be rugged defenders with size and outstanding goalies. Edmonton has some large defensemen pushing (Broberg, Samorukov, Niemelainen are all large fellows) and Evan Bouchard is 6.03, too.
Goaltending? I have said that there’s every chance Smith-Koskinen return for a final season all down the line, and I still believe it to be true. Unless there’s a side deal that allows the team to offload Koskinen at a reasonable number, or Smith decides to retire, I expect this is the most likely path.
How much better is Tatar over Kahun?
There is math and there is warning signs. Triple the price will not get triple the production. I think just wave to Tatar and keep on going.
How much better was Caufield than Holloway when playing 1st and 2nd line in college?
I think Holloway will arrive quickly. Put him up on the big board.
Just because Canfield has enjoyed a strong playoff doesn’t mean Holloway will be ready for a feature role next year. Hell, it doesn’t mean Caufield will be ready for a feature role next year. Plenty of kids have a spectacular run in the playoffs as rookies and fail to meet expectations the following year.
Seeing Dougie Hamilton in numerous acquisition scenarios all day here.
Can anyone explain exactly why he would sign in Edmonton given the 31 alternatives?
I don’t believe he’ll sign here, which was one of the reasons I wrote the post today. Word is getting out about players who are likely to stay put and the pool is getting smaller. One of the few names we can call 50-50 is Nuge, and I believe Tatar is also there. Landeskog, Hall, Saad, even Coleman seem less likely.
I suspect we’ll be seeing more names no longer in play. Teams and players are making their decisions on who to target and those will be informed ones. I have Smith, Nuge, Larsson (obviously) and then Tatar, and as Saad, etc are no longer possible names like Schwartz and Mike Hoffman will come into view.
The one who may pop free is Saad since it seems unlikely Colorado will be able to keep both he and Landeskog.
No, I cannot.
Because not all 31 teams will go after him.
And I very much doubt he would go back to Calgary.
But you already know this and are playing the fool.
There will be plenty of suitors, though. Including Carolina imo.
There will be. But this is just another HH post where he exaggerates the situation being worse for the Oilers than it actually is.
The Oilers have landed the top UFA in free agency before (Sekera/Lucic) in years where they weren’t as good as they are now. They are also a good team with the cap space to pay him market value and still make other improvements to the team. Their best players are also young and entering the prime of their careers. There’s 2 reasons right there.
The doesn’t mean we’ll sign him (even if we were 2nd on his list, we still miss out if his top choice wants him and can pay him), but to suggest that every other team in the league would be preferable is nothing more than trolling at this point.
But if that’s what makes you happy…
Of course, Hamilton should absolutely be a target for Holland in free agency. He has both the need for him and the cap space to make it happen.
So, my understanding is that Katz is all in. So to me that means Dougie Hamilton, it also means that Holland has to be careful with the money so that moving forward he can keep the train on rollin. However, the stars have to align in order for this all to happen, but I am sayin there’s a chance….
In this scenario James Neal is not bought out or traded, he is placed on IR due to the Covid and all the issues it brings. I have an acquaintance who may have been one of the first infected in Alberta, but he was not diagnosed as he was ineligible for testing since he hadn’t left the province. He has had nothing but problems since, and his 30 year old formerly active daughter is having even more difficulty, so it is possible….
I had been playing around for the past few months acquiring contracts like Seabrook and Kessler, but I decided that this isn’t realistic due to potential cost, so I jumped on the suggestion from DieHard to build this roster.
1st line: Zucker-McDavid-JP
Zucker traded for Kassian + Archibald + 2022 3rd
2nd line: Hall-Draisaitl-Reinhart
Hall signed at $5.5 million x 2 years – He once again said that he might be willing to forego salary for a shot at the Cup. It’s time for him to come back and finally reap the rewards that we were dreaming of in June 2015…..
Reinhart traded for Yamamoto + Khaira + 2022 1st
Signed at $6 million x 2 years
3rd line: Zacha-Danault-Bjugstad
Zacha + Michael McLeod + 2021 5th traded for Bear + Kyle Turris + Rodrigue + 2022 2nd
Unlikely NJ would go for this, but if they did, the Oilers would be getting their 2 best FO men from the past season. And I have always liked McLeod’s potential and he is finally coming into view.
The Oilers can’t afford to pay Danault in this scenario, but he is signed for a bit more than his current salary at $3.85 million x 3 years with the attraction being 3 more shots at the cup.
Bjugstad is a possession driver, but he cannot find the net, which drops his salary way down from the current $4+ million. Paired with Danault and a finisher like Zacha might be a recipe for success. He is signed for $2.25 million x 2 years.
4th line: Benson-Ryan McLeod-Michael McLeod
Michael McLeod is signed for $925 K x 2 years.
1st Pair
Nurse-Hamilton
Hamilton is signed for $8.5 million x 7 years.
2nd Pair
Murray – Hakanpaa
The money is getting tight, but Ryan Murray also wants a shot at the Cup, possibly would like to play closer to home and much like Barrie did, in this scenario he takes a chance on himself and signs for $1.75 million for 1 year. I really like Mike Reilly, but I think he will command between $2.5 and $4 million, so he would be out of reach in this scenario. Plus I was looking for a short-term, low-cost contract for the 2LD slot in case Klef comes back or one of the yutes breaks through (don’t count out another giant Finn in Marcus Niemelainen}.
Jani Hakanpaa might be playing too high in the line-up here, but he sure looked good with Carolina to my eyes. Murray would be a great partner for him and Jesse get another giant Finn to chat with on road trips. Hakanpaa signs for $900 K x 2 years.
3rd Pair
Lagesson (Russell) – Bouchard
Goal
Smith – Koskinen – Stalock (does anyone know anything about the 3rd goalie teams are supposed to be carrying next season? Or did I misunderstand this?).
Spares
Shore – Marody
I was thinking of trading Marody to NJ in the Zacha deal, but did not. I think Bear, Yamamoto and Marody are all very probably trade casaulties. I would love to have Derek Ryan in the Marody spot here.
This is an improvement, but can Holland put together something like this?
No one can put together something like this.
You’ve turned over 2/3 of the roster in one off season.
What real life GM does this?
It’s not a fantasy league.
Was gonna say this isn’t EA NHL trade and sign league
Do you think 10 new additions to the roster (plus Marody and Benson) is enough change?
Depends on your goals.
If they are trying to win, then yes.
Improvement? Geezus thats a dann bloody sweet overhaul In the 9th degree. However far far from realistic.
This is excessive sure, but this is also the time to do such a thing.
So you can make a couple of moves and hope for the best, or you can build a roster with depth on it, but for this team that will take a lot of work.
This team should be targeting a top 5 finish and the Conference Finals next year, simply making the playoffs is not enough.
We’ve got this thing surrounded like a circular firing squad.
#ThereWillBeBlood
Here is a plain view of Ken Holland’s negotiation style: “If you have a milkshake, and I have a milkshake. And I have a straw. This is a straw see it (pointing at his index finger)? And my straw reaches ACROOOOOOOSS the room. I drink your milkshake! (Slurp). I drink it up!”
Gitter Done Kenny!
If Darren Helm is our 3LW, that line will be in a lot of trouble. Helm scored just 8 points in 47 games this season, with a 41.38 GF% and 45.67 xGF%.
If we don’t land Coleman, I would simply play Tyler Benson as the 3LW. He’s proven himself in the AHL, and has better AHL numbers than players like Coleman. If there’s anything the Oilers should learn from Montreal’s finals run, it’s to give young players a bigger chance. Players like Suzuki, Romanov, Caufield, and Kotkaniemi are a huge reason why the Habs have made it that far.
Tomas Tatar would be a great 1LW and a good fit with McDavid and Puljujarvi. Among forwards that have played at least 1000 minutes in the last 3 season, Tatar ranks 19th in 5v5 P/60. He’s ahead of names like Barkov, Tavares, Rantanen, and Ovechkin. And he’s quite good defensively as well (2.3 GA/60 and 2.13 xGA/60)
Yeo whoever is mentioning Helm is off they’re rockers
Probably some old dude that writes a blog, and thinks Kenny may just do that?
Saad McDavid Puljujarvi
Nugent-Hopkins Draisaitl Yamamoto
Goodrow McLeod Sutter
Benson Khaira Archibald
Kahun Shore
Nurse Bear
Ekman-Larsson Bouchard
Russell Larsson
Lagesson
Smith
Koskinen
Klefbom LTIR
Kraken–Jones
23 $81,500,000 $80,263,826 $341,326$ 907,500 $1,236,174
Benson, Tyler2$900,000
Khaira, Jujhar2$1,500,000
Yamamoto, Kailer2$2,000,000
Kahun, Dominik1$1,200,000
Larsson, Adam4$4,000,000
Smith, Mike1$3,000,000
Saad, Brandon4$6,000,000
Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan4$6,000,000
Sutter, Brandon2$2,000,000
Goodrow, Barclay3$2,000,000
EDM
ARI
I would probably make one change. I would try signing a right shot $1.2 million dollar winger instead of Kahun, but I haven’t done a hard target search for the player. So Kahun is sort of a place holder for that guy.
Couldn’t fit Getzlaf in, so I had to settle for Sutter for a right shot faceoff man.
One could also sign a Koekkook type for a million to be the #7D instead of Lagesson, but I sort of figure the trud #7 would be Broberg in Bakersfield.
They way OEL is trending, Samorukov may be better than his in 2 years.
Yeah no thanks to OEL as well unless he’s free
OEL is definitely not free at his cap hit.
Title of this roster: “How to make friends and take on all the bad contracts.”
Not a big fan of OEL at that price right now. I’d aim for Hamilton instead and not bring back Larsson. Maybe even Alec Martinez on a high but short contract.
My biggest worry though is signing Nurse, Puljujarvi and Bear the following year. You won’t have any cap coming off so it might be difficult to give them all a raise. Thinking 5-6 million raise for the three combined.
You are probably right. CapFriendly isn’t set up to out year planning. In the OEL-Saad-Nugent-Hopkins model, I probably have to forget about Sutter and Goodrow too to make sure I have that $4 million for the following year. Use one year stop gaps instead.
A reason to not buyout Mikko and create a dead cap hit in 2022/23.
Turris comes off.
Archie as well – he could be replaceable on the roster with Lavoie or Holloway.
OEL now way in hell and Saad Maybe
OEL is an interesting case. Seems a little early for a dman to fall off the cliff. If he’s healthy he may be a buy low candidate, with a chance to bounce back.
It’s a bad contract, so it probably depends on how bad Arizona wants to dump it.
Would something like Klefbom, Neal and Turris with 1 million retained on OEL work?
The other option is for the Oilers to trade an actual prospect. Something like Broberg/Samarukov and Neal for OEL with 4 million retained.
People are concerned with Adam Larsson regressing over a 3-4 year contract and he is a year and a half younger than OEL, been healthier recently and being playing much closer to the top of his game than OEL has….. yes, different types of skill-sets but OEL would be a massive risk. I’m not certain Sammy won’t be better in 2 years.
OELs 5v5 GF% has been negative each of the last 5 seasons. His GF% relative to team has been negative the past 4. This past season was easily the worst of them all.
He’s now a 2nd pairing defender at 5v5 by TOI/game and %TOI vs elites.
He’s no longer his coaches first choice on the PP or PK either.
All that aside, the issue with trading bad contracts to even out OELs deal is that all of them end well before his does. He’ll still be owed $8Mx3 3 years from now when Neal, Kassian, Klefbom et al are off the books.
It’s not worth it.
My thinking is that a Neal buyout costs 2 million a year for 4 more years.
My 1st trade idea essentially makes OEL (with 1 million retained) a 5 million dollar dman for the next 4 years. If you include Klefbom and Turris, OEL is basically cap neutral for the first 2 years.
There definitely is some risk, particularly the last 2 years, but it makes the Oilers a better team today.
I guess it all depends on when you think it’s time to push the chips in.
Why is it not time? How many thought Montreal was positioned to be in the Finals?
You’re asking the wrong guy.
My trade suggestion made the team better next year.
Yeah it would (almost) definitely make the team better today. It’s just that this deal is pretty likely to look bad in a couple of years, and will almost certainly look very very bad in 4, 5, 6 years.
When you total it up, with $1M retained, I think you subtract $23.65M from the remaining $49.5M of his contract. It’s a bigger chunk of the total than I realized, and overall means the Oilers would pay OEL $4.3M per season. A ton of teams would sign OEL to a 6 X $4.3M deal as UFA (though his season this year really was terrible, 39%GF, under 45% in SF and xGF).
The bigger issue is it isn’t 6 X $4.3M, all the cap cost is a few years down the road. You’d like to push the chips in sooner than later, but not at the direct expense of teams a few years out.
Depending on the summer moves I think the Oilers could/should take another step forward and maybe win a couple of rounds. At the same time, I feel like the natural window of this team will be most open once Bouchard, Broberg and Holloway have got 40-80 games under their belt. Adding OEL takes away from that team (probably a lot).
What are the chances Neal retires or goes on LTIR due to COVID complications? I’ve got a relative who got COVID and had (is having) it bad. His doctor now says he has COVID lung. And they don’t know where it goes from here.
I don’t think he’s going to give up over $11M and retire.
As far as LTIR for the season, that’s only an option if he’s really actually dealing with long term symptoms and unable to play – he played in the playoffs so I don’t think that’s the case. I guess it could be an option if he’s willing to “play that game” but it sounds like he worked his ass of in the 2nd half of last year trying to get back in shape and I think he wants to continue to play hockey.
Why is nobody talking about MAF or Lehner? Is there something I am missing? Won’t one of the two be available for Seattle at their draft? Could the Oilers not get one of them on the cheap? ie. Vegas retaining if the Oilers threw them a bone?
https://www.nhl.com/news/marc-andre-fleury-wants-to-stay-with-vegas-golden-knights/c-325488540
Mike Smith and Dave Tippett will do for one more year. Their last dance. Run the clock out on Koskinen.
The Oilers will have a clear runway for a goaltender after next season.
Lehner is too risky. Is he going to eat all off-season again, and be unable to play for the first 40 games.
If what you say is true then lane duck coach with lame duck goalie. Ya, this should play out well.
Agree Lehner would be worth a call.
Even with the off-season eating he posted .913.
He’s been consistently very good, near the top of the league at .919 over the past 6 seasons and never below .908 in that span.
Lehner and Smith would be quite the personality duo.
8 team NTC.
Worth a call.
75% chance the Oilers aren’t on his NT list.
Vegas is exempt from the expansion draft. They won’t be losing anyone.
The last thing the Oilers need are smaller skill players that get scratched on a team lacking veteran skill.
They need players that can help Connor and Leon play a successful O zone possession game. For the playoffs.
That doesn’t mean goon squad, it means players that have that as their style, as opposed to players that have to change to that when the whistles go away, and common sense.
They don’t have to be big, but there just aren’t a lot that aren’t at least standard size and good at it.
Holland loaded up on ‘top 6 scoring players’. We all thought awesome, better.
To me the issue is style. And players in that role that can finish. They may not have the creativity to do it on their own, but if someone gets them the puck in a good spot they have the hunger to get it in. That typically means they have an NHL shot.
80 million playmakers as we’ve always had doesn’t work when making a play isn’t there.
Drive the net, stick on ice, find a gap, put it away. Like Mr. Maroon did. Connor and Leon will get it to you if they have an option to actually do that.
Okay. Let’s get Maroon then!
If it has to be an older Wing I’d get Glendenning. Better numbers than Helm, wins RS faceoffs and apparently has a physical game. I don’t know if he can still skate but he could at one time.
Played third most games on the team, bottom 6, 60% on faceoffs, +3 on that team which few others were, SH% 9 compared to Helm’s SH% 3. 10th on the team in scoring at 21st in TOI. All at 5v5, 6G 9A.
If Holland gives Helm 2.5 mill the off season will be a failure
The only offseason Helm move id be ok is PTO
Even that is too rich as the per diem itself would just be a waste of money.
Bringing back Mikko and Mike is a disaster waiting to happen. We could easily miss the playoffs. You need to build from the goal out, hopefully Dutch understands this and solving this problem is his top priority,
We can survive without a LW, but without goaltendering ….
Looks like more options this year than last, hopefully he can pull the trigger on a solid option.
There will be more options for goaltenders next year when Kuemper and Merlikins and Campbell are UFA’s.
Tippett and Smith has a longstanding relationship. The odd couple tandem of Smith and Koskinen has been fine for two years. Play better in front of them, and it should be even finer.
Prioritize fixing the things that are broken, and let the clock run out on Koskinen’s contract.
Could always miss the playoffs but the team has made the playoffs very comfortably 2 years in a row with that tandem and the team is getting better (incrementally) and should be even better next season.
If the goalies are absolutely cratering the season early (which seems unlikely given the last two seasons), tending can be acquired during the season – it always can.
I think we have discovered that Tatar is the passenger and Danault and Gallagher are the drivers. Both Vegas and Montreal came to this conclusion.
If one is willing to spend $5 million on Tatar, just spend more and get Hall or Saad, or spend less and get Granlund.
You can read that from the coaches decisions if you wish. That’s fair on some level.
In terms of what actually happened on the ice when these players were together or apart, that shows Tatar as more driver than passenger.
Last 3 seasons at 5v5:
Tatar-Danault-Gallagher
Min 1500
SF% 61
GF% 66
xGF% 62
Tatar-Danault
Min 431
SF% 57
GF% 52
xGF% 54
Tatar-Gallagher
Min 159
SF% 57
GF% 35
xGF% 63
Danault-Gallagher
Min 462
SF% 58
GF% 56
xGF% 53
Danault only
Min 443
SF% 47
GF% 34
xGF% 48
Gallagher only
Min 225
SF% 49
GF% 47
xGF% 49
Tatar only
Min 514
SF% 54
GF% 52
xGF% 55
All off
Min 6462
SF% 52
GF% 50
xGF% 52
As a trio they’re clearly better.
If you value SF/xGF equally to actual GF in smaller samples all 3 pairs are close to a wash.
When without either of the other 2, Tatar has the best results of the 3.
I still wouldn’t sign Tatar for $4.9M, but Tatar was not the passenger. Simply not true.
For buy-outs I only do Turris. His cap hit would only be $183,333 next season and $733,333 the year after. I try trade Kos with as much retention as possible and make Neal useful for another year (4th line and PP1 time with speedy line-mates like McLeod and Archibald). We are 24 months away from being totally free of all buy-outs and need to just suck it up. All that cap space will be awfully useful in a period when we should be truly competitive. No buy-outs on the budget past 22-23.
It makes no sense to buyout Turris. If one sends him to Bakersfield, he counts only $600K against the cap, and is off the books next year.
He also might retire and go play in Europe. Completely off the books.
If he’s bought out and elects to play in Europe he still gets paid the portion of his NHL salary. Why would he retire and forego that money?
He may not want to ride buses. It seems that’s his year coming up. But maybe not.
But owner might enjoy keeping about $750,000 of his cash.
im almost never in favor of buying out expiring contracts
he can get his act together and win a job
or he can almost painlessly be buried
Me too but it depend on whether we want the cap space this year or next. Buy him out and his cap hit is only $183,333 this season and $733,333 the year after. Sent to minors this season his cap hit will be about $650,000 and $0 next year. Buy-out is a bit of a negative in terms of cap hit next year, but salary savings for Kat would be about $700,000.
Saving about $300,000 in cap space spread over two years would cost about $700,000 in real dollars. Turris will be the one bought out. His contract is structured to be bought out and save real dollars at little extra cost in cap space. Unless people think Katz doesn’t care about money at all.
I can deal with a Koskinen or Turris buy-out as these would expire when the Lucic and Sekara hits also expire. I’d eat Neal’s hit for two more years as stretching it out past 2023 pus the hurt into a period when we should be real contenders. Same with Klef’s contract which also expires in 2023
What would be the cost for Palat and/or Couturier?
Palat wouldn’t cost much given that Tampa needs to move 3 of Johnson Palat Cirelli Gourde Killorn at the very least
and if I’m Seattle I’m picking Cernak knowing that I can have the other guys later on
I think Tampa protects 4D. Hedman, McDonagh, Segachev, Cernak, Kucherov, Point, Cirelli, and Stamkos. Tampa will then try to induce the Kraken to take Johnson.
I think they would trade Stamkos if they could. Stamkos might want to play with McDavid. I would make the phone call. Edmonton might be one of the only places Stamkos might waive for, especially if he gets the 2nd Cup ring. The Oilers could probably get him at a reasonable price in terms of assets out.
That’s a very interesting idea.
Moving out of tax free Florida would cost him significant dollars.
Plus Miami beaches for frozen river valley. Never say never, but….
Yeah, but apparently many are lined up to play for California teams according to you.
LT that lineup is woeful with worn out UFA like Tatar and Helm. Holland has to make some trades to upgrade because the roster you outline is running in place (or worse) and would get flattened in the playoffs.
I walk away from RNH unless he’s willing to take $5 million as he is not a physical complimentary playoff winger who can thrive in the playoffs. Might walk away even at that as he cannot drive a line or thrive when the going gets rough, dirty and full of interference. Wanted Bennett who would have been a nice add at a good price. That’s the player type we need to be looking at. The forward group with guys like Nygard, Haas, Ennis, Kahun was way too small and soft. Schwarz, Hyman, M Foligno is the isle you need to be shopping in. We also need to be integrating the young guys who are now mature into the bottom 6 (Benson, McLeod) plus the young dman (Sammy, Bouchard).
Next season should be the year of hairy assed vets and our own young guys like Benson, McLeod, Sammy and Bouchard. That would be progress.
I don’t think anyone would argue the above lineup is optimal for winning next year. It is low risk, low reward but it is an incremental improvement over last year.
Tatar is not my first pick but would certainly be a big improvement. If we get to try the DRY line for any significant time that alone would be awesome.
Helm doesn’t sound like the right guy. Not sure they need another LW, current RFAs and maybe Holloway should be good.
The biggest issue is risking another season of Smith. I really like him but if he had a mediocre season, Oil probably don’t make the playoffs. Having said that, I might be fine running the same goalies and trying out Konovalov, Stalock, Skinner and risk this being a growth year.
“So the shopping list is as expected. Two LW’s, No. 3 center, No. 2 LHD and No. 2 RHD.”
Is there a move in Hollands future that is at least a little counter-intuitive?
He surprised us with his first ever pick as Oiler GM by taking Broberg at 8.
The stated goal of GM and Coach has been and is, to reduce goals against, and in this copy cat league, that sentiment can only have been reinforced by the Habs and the Islanders performances.
Yes, they will almost certainly add a LW’er and a 3C to bring some balance to the roster
But it would not surprise me (especially if Klefbom is not available) if Holland spends a significant portion of his purse on signing Adam Larsson and Dougie Hamilton (in our dreams) or, Adam Larsson PLUS two of the defensemen from (or similar to) the following list:
David Savard (30) RD
Alec Martinez(33) LD
Vince Dunn (24) LD/RD
Brandon Montour (27) LD/RD
Derek Forbort (29 ) LD
CapFriendly.com Armchair-GM User-Generated Roster
FORWARDS (14)
Right wing: Jesse Puljujärvi ($1,175,000) – Kailer Yamamoto ($1,250,000) – Dominik Kahun ($1,000,000) – Raphael Lavoie ($870,000) – Zack Kassian ($3,200,000)
Centre: Connor McDavid ($12,500,000) – Leon Draisaitl ($8,500,000) – Alexander Wennberg ($3,000,000) – Ryan McLeod ($834,167) – Jujhar Khaira ($1,250,000)
Left wing: Taylor Hall ($7,500,000) – Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ($5,500,000) – Dylan Holloway ($925,000) – Tyler Benson ($925,000)
DEFENSE (7)
Right: Ethan Bear ($2,000,000) – Dougie Hamilton ($7,500,000) – Evan Bouchard ($863,333)
Left: Darnell Nurse ($5,600,000) – Derek Forbort ($1,250,000) – Kris Russell ($1,250,000) – Dmitri Samorukov ($825,000)
GOALTENDER (2)
Mike Smith ($1,750,000) – Mikko Koskinen ($4,500,000)
AHL BURIED (2)
Kyle Turris ($525,000) – Josh Archibald ($375,000)
BUYOUTS (2)
Andrej Sekera ($1,500,000) – James Neal ($1,916,667)
RETAINED SALARY TRANSACTIONS (1)
Milan Lucic ($750,000)
DETAILS
Roster Size: 23
Salary Cap: $81,500,000
Bonus Overages: $341,326
Cap Hit: $79,375,493
Cap Space: $2,124,507
I bought out Neal. I’d rather retain 50% in a trade to Seattle , along with a 3rd or 4th round pick, to promise they pick Caleb Jones, but I’m not sure that’s enough for them to bite.
Hall and Hamilton at $7.5M each is wishful thinking, but, hey, crazier things have happened? Wennberg might be too cheap at $3M too. Does anyone have a handle on how much Forbort will get? He’d be a great fit on the left side. Big, fast, good passer. Pipe dreams.
Wennberg: 1.50 pts/60 5v5 last season had him tied for 69th among centers – so really decent 3rd liner. However, left shot with a career 5v5 FO% of 46.6 is not a great fit. His stats also show he is a passer not a shooter so would have to have ‘shoot first’ wingers. That being said he is 6-2 / 197, only 26 years old and a UFA. If he would sign for $3.5m x 2 that would be a win for the Oilers.
I like the basic mechanics of the proposed roster.
But what about Klefbom?
I think I’d move forward as if he’s retiring. If he comes back then I’d have to make a decision on if he’s 100% of his former self and how to make cap space for him. If you don’t sign anyone to salaries that are too high, you shouldn’t have trouble getting fair market value for them to make room.
I don’t think retirement is an option – that means he forgoes close to $10M dollars.
LTIR for two seasons is a definite possibility but that doesn’t get rid of his cap hit and, while the team will be able to spend over the cap, it is also highly limiting for in-season improvements.
If Klef is on LTIR for two seasons, get used to “money in/money out” as the deadline approaches.
Sorry, I know how that works. I wasn’t implying that his cap disappears or anything, rather just saying I’d manage as if he will not be playing again.
Darren Helm is not an acceptable 3rd line player. Old, slowing down and scores at replacement-level pace. Holland has already signed Shore to the role of trusted vet. Players like this have no upside – the best that be expected is the same level of poor production or most probably worse. 7 pts 5v5 this year puts Helm tied with such luminaries as Tobias Reider, James Neal and Max Jones who all had higher 5v5 pts/60 rates. Just for reference Neal had a 1.43 pts/60 5v5 this year!
Both Benson and Holloway are better than Helm right now (NHLe comparison)! With some ‘at bats’ they should improve. Do not do the death by a thousand cuts – and giving $2.5 to replacement-level players is exactly that. Play the value contracts and get the absolute best UFA #1LW you can.
It should be easy for them to overcome Helm, that’s something that will occur during the year. I see Helm as being a possible addition to the Oilers for sure.
Then why spend the $2.5m? Give the rookies their ‘at-bats’ early in the season and use the money elsewhere (Dougie Hamilton?). There is such a low probability that they don’t make the playoffs in the Pacific that the first half of the season is the time to get the team up to speed.
Because the coach doesn’t want that as a starting position and the general manager wants it as a backup position. And Dougie Hamilton isn’t coming here.
That’s my thought process anyway.
Bring back Kahun at $1 million and don’t waste the extra $1.5 million. There should be lots of one million dollar obstacles for Holloway and Benson available. Don’t need $2.5 million dollar ones.
Definitely agree Helm could be added. I don’t believe Holland will pay him $2.5M.
Helm is a PTO/league min type of signing, is he not?
No, I can see signing him for $1M+, for the reasons LT lists.
Maybe. However, in his end of season avail he talked at length about needing veterans. Helm can PK, and his possession numbers five on five are solid relative to other Red Wings. Holland gave Kassian a four-year deal for $3.2 million a year, imo that brings this kind of deal into the realm of possibility.
1.04
1.05
0.73
Those are Helm’s P/60 the last three years.
I’m not sure multiple millions of dollars is the right play here.
Holland may. He has Shore already, and can move Khaira over, but a veteran trio like Helm-Goodrow-Archibald (all of whom can PK) could be opening night No. 3 line in 2021-22. Holland’s past makes it possible.
Sure, I guess Holland may but I don’t see it.
That listed 3rd line has two 4th liners on it, arguably 3 4th liners.
I think that line potentially makes the team worse unless its a 4th line and, frankly, I’m not sure it makes the 4th line better.
We’ll see. Maybe Holland surprises us and brings in Kadri for the third line. I don’t think so, though.
Dare to dream. 😉
Yeah, I agree with all of those reasons to add him.
Kassian, IMO was signed to that deal with the expectation of 1-3 years more as a top 6 winger (which he had been for a year, with a considerable degree of success, at the time of the signing).
He didn’t give Chiasson $2.5M coming off a 22 goal season, for instance.
I don’t think any other team is going to offer Helm a deal approaching $2.5M, and I feel like Holland has had a pretty good read on market value for players (at least since joining the Oilers).
How I would do D
Nurse Bear
Klef. Hamilton (7.5 per)
Kulikov Bouchard
1 stud on each top pair.
Don’t know if Klef comes back but if he does that’s a great corp
Hamilton is only double price of Larsson and significant upgrade
but I would bet Hamilton goes to LA
I have said it before and will say it again – Klefbom will be ready and in camp for the coming season.
Dougie Hamilton at $7.5 x 7 I would do all day long.
Assuming Jones is lost to the Kraken and with KRusty already signed, keep the Kullikov $2.5m to add to the pool to spend on a #1LW. Go with 6d until injuries require one of Lagesson, Sammy, or Brogerg to come up.
Well we have breaking news! Do you have a link? Or is this something you believe? That runs counter to what many are hearing.
No one knows
my estimate is Christmas, 9 months which is definitely on the long side for shoulder surgery but have no idea without knowing what surgery how he feels how rehab is going
Oct 12 is just over 6 months which would be in range for most shoulder surgeries but who knows
LT
Just my thoughts on the matter. Neither Klefbom nor the team has said anything public that I have found with respect to the matter other than Kelfbom saying he would like to play again.
I have had the same type of surgery for arthritis (shoutout to Dr. Chan at the Sturgeon) and it was a life changer. Some minor loss of mobility / rotation but no more pain when just doing simple tasks. Please note that my office job though does not include 200+ lbs men trying to run my through a wall. However, I am much, much older that Klef (damn near your age LT), had very few resources available and it has worked out great. I was fully recovered and back in the gym within 8-weeks.
So in summary: I am hoping and praying he will return and I think he will.
Regards,
I like this D but no way Hamilton signs for less than Pietrangelo.
Death, taxes and this ^^^
I would think he does
Ehhhh, he’s not the same calibre of character as Petro either.
GMs value that, and absolutely factor it into salary negotiations.
GMs value overpaying in free agency. Also, Hamilton will be younger than Pietrangelo when entering free agency.
I will eat my heatwave shorts (I am wearing the same pair for the duration of the heatwave) if Hamilton gets less than Pietrangelo.
there is a reason why he may be heading to his 4th team in his short career. I would take Pietangelo over Hamilton every time.
?
GMs do indeed overpay in free agency.
But these are totally different players.
One comes with a Cup ring and a C labeled on his jersey. The other comes with a Proposition 65 label.
The recipe for success is a big strong experienced top four defence.
I think it’s reasonable to count on one of our young forwards to occupy one of the bottom 2 LW spots on the roster. With Shore and Khaira (who I like better on the wing anyway) on board, I think Nuge plus another like Tatar gives us both security and flexibility going forward at the position.
I’m hoping that all those years with Franzen in Detroit playing with the skill of Zetterberg and Datsyuk that Holland has his eye out for a rugged winger who knows the value of camping out in front of the net, screening goalies, and getting to rebounds. That’s the kind of winger I’d like to see added to the top 6.
I think Puljujarvi was great at creating havoc and generally being a handful, and I think it’s why he worked so well. Draisaitl, though big and great at protecting the puck, doesn’t spend any real time in front of the net. So if JP is on one line, we need someone similar for the other. Yamamoto is willing to go into the boards and fight for pucks, what separates him from a guy like Gallagher is that he usually keeps to the outside and doesn’t attack the net the same way (he also doesn’t seem to come away with the puck as often, but I’m sure that will improve).
Tatar – really? This hobbit cannot even make the lineup of a playoff team and some people think Holland will bring him to the Oilers? He PREVIOUSLY scored at a solid rate but has fallen off the cliff and does not help in other areas. Hard pass on this guy.
All I can tell you is that he played in the NHL and delivered his third quality season in a row this year. Maybe it’s injury, maybe it’s the coach. Tatar checks off all the boxes and I expect (unless he really is hurt) Edmonton will pursue. I have no issue with it. He’s a fine player.
Pretty sure the drivers are Danault and Gallagher.
Tatar seems like a perfect fit. Should come at a decent price (barrie type contract) he doesn’t need to be the driver on either line, he just needs to compliment one of the two centers
I agree on this. I think the main issue is LT’s proposal (or projected Holland proposal) is $4.9M for term.
He is also a great place holder for Holloway. Your roster or prediction of what Holland might do is by my way of thinking logical and leaves room for in season and or trade deadline acquisition. I prefer this to the shoot the moon rosters that if they don’t work will leave the teams hands tied for the next 3 to 5 years.
That’s exactly right, and I think the chances of making a mistake is higher if he tries to do 12 things at once. Definitely pursue help on LW and defense, and No. 3C, but he can make a couple of moves at the deadline, too.
Lots of pushback today for LT’s proposed roster that includes $4.9 mln for a healthy scratched forward, a doubling of Kulikov’s salary and $3 mln and $2.5 mln for low scoring bottom sixers Goodrow and Helm.
Is this our esteemed host playing with us or preparing us for what Holland could posdibly do this summer?
unfortunately LT’s proposed roster looks quite plausible to me.
Well we do know that LT does not troll the blog – so if his vast experience is telling him this is the direction Holland may go, then the team is doomed to languish in the mushy middle of the pack. Also, Helm would be better characterized as replacement-level.
Here’s the thing. ALL of the free-agent contracts are short term save Tatar, Nuge and Larsson on my list. I don’t think Holland goes over three years with Goodrow or the 2LHD, unless something falls in his lap.
People keep looking for the long-term addition to the No. 3 center job, to the No. 2 RH defense job. Well those answers were Joel Eriksson Ek and Brandon Carlo, and now those answers are Dylan Holloway/Ryan McLeod and or Evan Bouchard, Philip Broberg and Dmitri Samorukov.
People are mad today for two reasons: first, Holland can’t produce Eriksson Ek/Carlo for next season, so he has to paste in more short-term options.
Second, the Montreal Canadiens are in the final and Oilers fans can’t get past thinking it should have been McDavid and company.
Well, I don’t get the first part and totally get the second part. But Holland has money and can spend it to make the team better. That doesn’t mean he can pull a miracle and as we get closer to free agency there are signs of players being available to Edmonton/not being available to Edmonton.
I would sign Dougie Hamilton, and run a RH side of Hamilton, Bear and Bouchard. The LH side would be Nurse, Jones and Kulikov, and if the team needed more help they could add at the deadline.
I’d add Chris Driedger. I wouldn’t sign Mike Smith but wouldn’t buy out Mikko Koskinen either. Again, make the call at the deadline.
Up front, I would sign Goodrow or similar, Nuge (he fills the center spot if required) and Blake Coleman for the McDavid line. People bitched so much about Coleman that I changed it to Tatar and now you’re all made.
So, we’re back to Coleman on the next roster post. And we’re not stopping to pee, either.
All good points. I don’t have an issue with the players you’ve listed, I just don’t think any of the four represent decent value at those salaries.
Tatar’s market value has to come down after being a healthy scratch. I don’t think Kulikov needs to double his salary from last year, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets a bit of a raise. Helm is 34 and scored 8 points in 47 games. He is coming off a hefty 5 year deal. Can’t see him commanding more than $1.5 million. Goodrow is younger and has never had a big payday. I can see him getting $2-2.5 million. But I’m guessing with all four.
Wait, the Tatar contract is $4.9M for term?
There is a lot of luck needed to go the the final.
I applaud Bergeron for what he did. I felt he had gone stale or was off the mark until playoffs.
He identified the right type of players to build his team, better than Dubas did.
He brought together a really cohesive gritty hard playing group. He had Price in his back pocket.
He also changed his coach.
I caught Cooper at the end of the game. I haven’t seen him talk much. He came across to me as a grade A flake. I was surprised.
Then it occurred to me that I got the flake vibes because he was ‘pitching’. What he is good at is controlling but more importantly motivating his group, repeatedly.
There are the rumours of things behind the scenes again in Oilerland. I have been down on Tippet and the coaches for a while bcs I’m not seeing a group that is working well together and can’t get past dumb mistakes or play the system well and consistently.
The success they’ve been having is largely due to having 3 of the best players inthe league driving the bus. Dynamic Duo and terrifying Nurse.
Two consecutive flat playoff wipeouts. Mystifying excessive minutes for a few players. It’s not how you build up a team. Holland should let them know their jobs are safe while they do that.
Tippet is a good coach. I just don’t see him as the motivational type, more your old school stubborn type.
I think they need someone to direct the emotional narrative of the team, to build the mindset and cohesiveness of the group. Regardless of who is on the team.
It will never be all perfect players. You need to bring the imperfect up to the task at hand. Like most managers have to do in any job.
And to get Connor and Leon playing more relaxed. Not slack, but have fun while your battling your brains out.
Connor was way too uptight. Having outbursts isn’t something that should happen much. Intensity is needed, but it has to be directed the right way or it can be a negative.
Again I’ll mention Sather’s genius at this.
Lot of luck is required
yet somehow both Lightning and Isles fought each other yet again
looks like you can cheat at luck
One gives good fortune a chance when one eliminates 90% of stupid plays and all the unreliable players. Most series are lost, not won.
I agree with what Godot said.
All teams need a few bounces. But yes, some teams are better at the playoffs than others.
I see it as a coach that can get everyone on board and motivate them properly, the right system populated with the right players, goaler playing well, and enough health.
When Hedman was hurt in the playoffs a while back Tampa and Vas looked mortal.
Yet the Isles are out again. Vegas and the Avs.
OT luck is not a bad thing to keep a run going.
It sounds like the ideal coach you’re describing could very well be Jay Woodcroft. From his interviews, he seems to excel at motivation without being a hardass, and he seems to excel at getting the most out of bottom of the roster players. Everything I’ve read about the Condors talks about how closely knit they are. I think that would be great for the Oilers.
Woody, or Nelson.
Yup.
I think they should make that move now. Two flat series with Connor and Leon in prime is not a good look. The roster has holes, most do. But they have the two best forwards and their dominant first pair D in Nurse. They also had Barrie, who is not for me, but was getting points. Tippet couldn’t make that work with good goaltending.
A great coach gets them too far. They may not win a Cup, but they over achieve, not under achieve.
Also bring Manson who has coached all these young D up. Maybe leave Houle as HC and find some folks that can keep the pipeline going.
I believe they will keep the current NHL coaching staff for one more year. The current coaching brain trust has not had the right plan for two playoff series in a row. Both times they went into these series as prohibited favourites. One of the major contributions to team solidarity and motivation is success when following the plan. The current group of coaches does not seem to be able to adapt to game and series situations. They stick to their plan regardless of the results. They are to be quite frank very predictable which makes it much easier for their opposition!
Oh my goodness, Tatar at $4.9M? I’m thinking $3M giving he’s coming off a poor season, is 31 (I believe) and would be signing the “2021 Barrie contract” – one year, low comp to play with elite skill to re-establish value.
If we are spending $4.9M on an external LW, I’d be looking at Saad, not Tatar – way too much for Tatar, in my opinon.
Yeah and like one year at 3 mil
Tatar is 30, scored 2.03-60 last season five on five and has delivered three straight seasons of good-to-great offense. Great possession rates, great rates relative to teammates. The team changed coaches and had success using other pieces. Great! Maybe they get him at a discount. Either way, unless he’s hurt Tatar is an excellent bet based on his own past.
http://naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20202021&thruseason=20202021&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=std&rate=y&v=p&playerid=8475193
Yes, I love his possession numbers and believe he should help an outscoring line but, notwithstanding his scoring rates, he had 30 points in 50 games – that’s a down year for a player turning 31 before the end of the year.
If Tatar is worth, essentially $5M, what is Nuge worth (3 years his junior)?
It was on track to be a 50-point season. I mean, we can argue this all you want, but Tatar had his third season in a row that is quality. I think his not playing in the post season (I think he played in five or six games) has people drawing grand conclusions when injury is more probably the reason (followed by new coach having a preference for another player).
Granlund and Saad are better players.
I don’t think Saad comes here, maybe he will. Granlund would be a fine option.
Perhaps Danault and Gallagher deserve the credit for those numbers.
Both Vegas and Montreal have decided to pressbox him in the playoffs.
Well he’s scoring points, they’re not responsible for that, godot. He’s hurt, is my guess.
OK, quality season for Tatar.
Does that mean it was a quality season for Nuge as well? I mean, Nuge outproduced Tatar.
Nuge had some linemantes, that’s for sure but Tatar’s linemates are being discounted in this post.
I like Tatar on a short-term deal but can’t see how he can be within $1M of Nuge on a term deal.
No, he didn’t outproduce Tatar, who was delivering over 2.00 pts-60 at five on five. Nuge produced 1.15 pts-60 while playing with McDavid. That isn’t the same, OP.
Nuge has 35 points in 52 games.
Tatar had 30 points in 50 games.
Rates are great but, as far as actual production goes……
Lets not forget, JJ Khaira was 3rd on the team in P/60.
Jujhar Khaira posted those numbers in Edmonton’s bottom six forwards. They are fantastic, but not likely to be repeated. Nuge produced his season playing with McDavid and not delivering scoring in the biggest game state.
Tatar is on a three-year run of quality scoring five on five.
We don’t forget, OP. We do put things in context.
I think the Smith potential comp will come in at $3M but his cap hit for the season will be $2M as he’ll get a base raise from $1.5M to $2M plus a potential $1M in performance bonuses.
If he vests all bonuses (yay) then there may be a cap penalty next season if they are right at the cap this year (or over via LTIR) but the contract will only decrease cap space by $2M this year, not $3M.
If Smith signs for a $3M base, that will not please me.
Hall for 3-4 years at apx $6M or Tatar for one year at apx $3M
Nuge for 5-6 years at $5.75M-$6M
Wenberg for 3 years at $3.25M
Riley at 3 years for $3M
Larsson at 4 years for $3.75M
Gregor was stating yesterday that he thinks its like 99.9% that Klef is NOT coming back – he never stated if he has any additional information (i.e anything new since Klef’s presser and Holland’s presser stating surgery went well, he’s rehabbing and hoping to be able to play this year and we’ll have an update in July) or if he’s just spitballing his thoughts off the same info we all have but that’s his thoughts.
If that does become a certainty and its known at the draft and before free agency, they (a) Klef’s entire $4.1M of LTIR reserves can be spent and (b) a real 2LD stop gap is required.
Its tough on that 2LD as a mix of Samorukov, Broberg, Jones could be legit ready for that spot in the next 0-2 years so spending $4M plus, for term, when Nurse is going to be $7.5M to $8M starting in 2022/23 is tough.
If Oscar is finished I wonder what it would take to trade Kelfbom’s contract say to the Coyotes.
I thought I read somewhere that his contract is not insured. If that is correct then Arizona would not be interested.
I have read the same, I believe.
In any event, even if it is insured, I don’t see why the Yotes would take it on without getting an asset for it – they won’t be anywhere near the cap floor, even if they are able to get rid of OEL. I don’t see the benefit (unless the Oilers are giving them an asset to take the contract).
unless there is a high % Klef is coming back for Oct. – which seems doubtful – maybe the play is to find a 1 year stop gap like they did with Barrie and overpay if necessary. Eg. give Nemeth or Ryan Murray 1x4ish (more if necessary) they pick up an extra million or so that normally wouldn’t be in their earning cycle and they’re still young enough to sign their UFA contract next summer. Put Klef on LTIR and if he does heal, pull a Kucherov, let him practice for 6 weeks and he’s your deadline D acquisition starting the playoffs as 3D. Worst case it buys another year for Broberg and Sammy, plus they have Russell as their 7thD (who I thought had a surprisingly good season last year).
The only thing keeping the Oilers from being as legit a contender as any of the final 8 is 4-5 players upgrades.
They have the core already in place. There are good prospects bubbling up to sustain things.
If they want to sit on their hands, 2-3 years, yes.
If they can correctly identify the issues and the needed pieces to improve it starts next season.
The core is still missing a 3C and 1G imo. All the other spots are filled or have internal options bubbling. This is assuming Holloway arrives as a top 6 winger rather than 3C.
McLeod has definite potential to be a 3C in my opinion – he’ll need to learn to (and be willing to) engage physically and battle but, if he can, I think he can get there.
McLeod as a 3C is a hope – not a plan. For me 3C is at least as important a position as 2W. More important really but I will leave it as just as important.
Maybe McLeod gets there but I am tired of waiting for that spot to be fixed and if we are going to put a rookie in the middle then you need even more support from the wings.
Sure, fair enough, if you are tired of waiting, that’s one thing but, for me, he’s as much an internal options bubbling for 3C as we have at various other positions.
He’s no lock to become a 3C but he was drafted with that position in mind and is clearly being groomed for that position in his development.
He’s every bit as likely to hit that position than Lavoie is a top 6 winger or Sammy is at top 4 D.
Agreed they need a 3C. Smith played well enough last season to win in the playoffs. HE may not next season, but when he was in net he wasn’t why they were losing.
Imagine how good he would have been with stable defensive play in front of him. The Oilers have still not got there. They have good games, but when pressured make a ton of critical errors IMO. That few goalies can help in overall.
Price is playing out if his mind, but Montreal is making it easier for him. Vas in Tampa isn’t Vas when Hedman isn’t playing well, or the team has an off night.
If we can sign Dougie Hamilton I would most certainly do it.
If I can sign Saad in a Maroon role at a good price I do it
If I can sign Granlund I do it. Can play him anywhere
If I can sign Ullmark I do it
otherwise I see a bunch of land mines in this free agent pool
Future buyouts galore
Have we moved into The acceptance phase of the off-season already?
Every off-season starts with optimism and hope. This is the fun phase where ideas and fantasy players get thrown out there. The construction of beautiful rosters.
Sooner or later, reality sets in and hope gets dashed. At some point we hear phrases like keep your powder dry. And let’s wait till next year, let’s build long-term, there was nothing really available.
Horrible ideas emerge like when the Oilers think they are smarter than other teams. They throw offers at players who could not play for another team, scratched or bought out. Or can’t make the NHL sitting in Europe unsigned but Oil figure they will turn them into something.
God, I hope we are not here yet. I want to live in the optimism phase so much longer.
Its starts out with Dreams of shopping on Rodeo Drive. Then we are told Edm is looking at Marshal’s. And by October the signing’s from the Dollar Store arrive ?
For those in fear of giving Benson a real chance:
Benson has put up better numbers in the AHL than all of Coleman, Goodrow, Tatar, Saad, and Helm. I’m reaching a bit with Saad because he only played 31 AHL games (20 points), but still.
The logic of those advocating signing any of those guys to block Benson is the following:
I (they) would rather have ~ 30 year old Coleman/Goodrow/Tatar/Saad/Helm than ~ 23 year old Coleman/Goodrow/Tatar/Saad/Helm. Think about that before you fill your boots paying those guys anywhere from 2.5 – 6 million or whatever it is they will cost.
Look, maybe Benson flops. So what? He likely won’t be worse than the 35% goal share we are accustomed to in these parts. If he hits? It’s another JP/KY/Bear feel good story. He had better numbers than KY!
This is an exceptional status WHL player who overcame injury, who plyed his trade in the AHL, and even started scoring more goals when Godot asked him to 🙂
If you can’t get behind a real shot for Tyler Benson, I don’t know what to say. Your tolerance for risk must be low, like wearing a helmet to go grocery shopping or something of that ilk.
I don’t think people fear giving Benson a chance. I think most people wonder if he will GET a chance.
Benson will play in the NHL this year just not sure if it will be with the Oilers. If Holland tries to sneak him through waivers I believe he will have misread the market and Benson will be lost for nothing.
Dylan Holloway has probably already surpassed Tyler Benson on the depth chart .
Coleman Tatar Saad Helm all PLUS skaters.
BENSON not.
Benson may be an effective NHL player and certainly deserves a chance. BUT his path has a much smaller % chance due to his poor skating; hence why he is still on the bubble at this point.
But many smart, creative players with vision overcome that aspect of their game, and Benson isn’t a bad skater. I wouldn’t call him fast but I wouldn’t call him slow either. I actually see him as quick and agile without great top-end speed. Players who come to mind: John Tavares, Mark Stone, Joe Thornton, Anze Kopitar, Corey Perry. Stone is one of the best players in the NHL right now (barring the last 7 games).
Benson is one point of contention, but what about the AHL’s leading goal-scorer? We have potential bottom 6 solutions that no one is acknowledging.
Saad-Mcdavid-Puljujarvi
Nuge-Draisatl-Yamamoto
Tatar-Johnson-Kassian
Benson-Mcleod-Archibald
Nurse-Larsson
Oleksiak-Bear
Lagesson-Bouchard
Ullmark
Smith
Someone smarter then me can probably make this work money wise.
Saad $5.5
Nuge – $5.5
Tatar – $3
Johnson – $3.5
Olesiak – $4
Larsson – $4
Ullmark – $3
Smith – $2.5
Neal trade retention = $2.75
Koskinen salary retention/buyout = $2.25
total salary cap = $79.919 (may be missing other buyouts, but it becomes darn close if you have Russell, Shore and Khaira as the extra’s). Holland can be creative and aggressive and not kill us financially. replace tatar with someone else like coleman at $3 million, and it still works.
I have a few issues.
1 – You have blocked Holloway and Benson.
2 – RW is weak. Archibald can’t score, neither can Kassian, and we don’t know which way Puljujarvi and KY will go, though I’m optimistic on both. I support what OP suggests, namely shoring up the second line RW position so that you have three good RW. A guy like Lavoie won’t be ready for at least another year, so you’re not blocking anyone.
3 – Larsson is miscast as a top pairing D. He does not move the puck well enough and suppresses 97’s offence. Larsson may be miscast as a second pairing D as early as next season.
4 – LHD looks terrible behind Nurse.
Definitely not perfect, but no way it will be.
Tatar is on a one year, so Holloway can outplay him. And I am very OK rolling with Holoway and Benson instead of Tatar. But relying on Holloway and Benson means we are out in first round again. All these teams in the final 4 had depth, and depth is not a kid on each line hoping they work out. Tatar was benched in playoffs. Happy to see that happen if someone passes him.
And if Saad is passed over next few years then great. He becomes a great third liner. But both him and Nuge can play in all disciplines and bring more then one dimension (ala Neal or Lucic), so will still have value in 3 or 4 years if they get passed. The cap will be up then, so their contracts won’t hurt near as much. And this lineup goes for it next year. No more waiting.
Why do we care so much about “blocking” so and so?
If Holloway, Benson, Bouchard are good enough they will force their way into the line up and the GM will have to trade away someone. Why is that so awful.
Or maybe it’s the young player who gets traded away to fill a different hole and again, why would that be so terrible?
Looks like an okay team, you don’t have to calculate the dollars manually, cap friendly.com/armchair-gm makes it easy.
Helm!?! Is this so Shore is guaranteed a roster spot?? Do the Oilers have to touch every Belanger triangle that exists in the league?
We have to (keep) remind ourselves… this isn’t what LT would himself do… He’s predicting what Holland would do.
But yeah, Helm was finished more than a couple years ago.
I am excited to discuss future Oiler’s GM Ryan Smyth’s decision to buy out the Tatar and Hyman contracts.
I am excited to see if he trades Holloway to save 500g in 2028.
Reads the intro: “I think we have things surrounded in front of the draft and free agency”
Reads posters responses.
Yeah. “Surrounded” …… with torches and pitchforks! 🙂
I have a paintball gun loaded with frozen pest deterrent balls. Triple element pain.
LT brings up a good point regarding the Goaltending situation, I had been struggling with what to do with Mikko. Trade options are limited to non-existent without retention, so it is an unrealistic expectation. Buying him out is flat-out dumb, because future Cap Space will be very important moving forward.
I think MK will be absolutely prepared coming into next season and the team will be better prepared not to over-play him, which is his Achilles heel.
I’ve created about 10 or 12 CapFriendly rosters to run multiple scenarios, and I have been obsessed with signing Driedger as UFA since probably October, but I think it is the incorrect approach.
So the correct approach and I think it may be what Ken decides to do is:
1. Draft Cossa (I am pretty certain I was the first to advocate for this on this site). To me this is a no-brainer. The only player that would give me pause, if available, is Fyodor Svechkov, who I think is NHL-ready (but likely 2 yrs away) and will become what Ryan O’Reilly is. Here is an ROR scouting report:
https://www.matchsticksandgasoline.com/2009/6/18/913777/scouting-the-09-draft-ryan-oreilly
and a Svechkov scouting report for comparison:
https://lastwordonsports.com/hockey/2021/06/07/fyodor-svechkov-scouting-report/
2. Continue to develop and deploy all of Skinner and Konovalov in the AHL and move Rodriguez to ECHL.
3. Sign Smith, retain MK and keep Stalock as 3rd G insurance.
4. Next season, sign UFA Keumper* or similar, sign 2nd vet 3G and give Skinner or Konovalov the opportunity to win 2G slot.
5. Continue to develop internal Goaltending options/competition.
*I do not like targeting aging injury-prone Goaltenders (Ulmark, Raanta), which is another reason why Driedger is such an appealing target IMO.
Further this would enable the player acquisition focus and cost to be on top 4 D and Forward upgrades.
I’d rather have Kahun at 1.3M or around there than Helm tbh.
Naked, Stoned and Stabbed. Guess which two :p
https://theathletic.com/2666168/2021/06/23/how-the-oilers-should-value-pending-ufas-ryan-nugent-hopkins-adam-larsson-and-tyson-barrie/
Required reading for anyone with an Athletic membership. Great article by DNB.
In short, the Evolving Hockey model doesn’t like Larsson that much. Now, maybe it weighs offensive production too much, as DNB said (other models like him). It projects Larsson being bottom pairing for the next two years and replacement level after that.
You better really like Larsson if he’s making 4 million and performing at a level of ~800k cap hit.
Spending 4 x 4 on these types of guys is crazy. Larsson is a fine hockey player, but he will be passed by Bouchard and Bear before long. Bear passed him two seasons ago at 22, Bouchard will likely do the same. Samorukov will fill the Larsson niche perhaps as early as next season.
Killer line from this article:
“Over the last three seasons, McDavid’s on-ice goals rate dropped from 4.04 to 2.43 with Larsson on the ice, a seriously difficult thing to do to the game’s most dynamic offensive force.”
If you want to bring back Larsson as a bottom pairing D or stop gap second pairing guy for one year, pay him that way.
I see the upside of this player being quite limited. This is not a Jeff Petry situation.
Define passed?
if you mean penalty killing and heavy defensive zone starts then no
but 3 x 3 is the most i would go
Even strength.
Bear passed Larsson two seasons ago as a rookie and played equal or higher quality opp than Larsson. Bouchard is a better prospect and Larsson is now an older player. Larsson may have been passed by Bouchard this season had the latter received the opportunity.
Your point on PK is a good one.
Larsson is very good on the PK. 16/74 in the league by GA/60 amongst D who played over 100 min on the PK this past season. 37/142 among players who played 50 minutes. Russell was 29/142, incidentally.
Going back 3 seasons, Larsson is 36/94 among D playing 300 minutes on the PK. For a 200 minute threshold, Larsson is 49/136.
Ethan Bear is 21/136, btw.
Ethan Bear is a very good hockey player. Signing Larsson to be more than a third pairing D is a mistake.
Are you Ethan Bears mommy ?
Larsson’s ice time with McDavid is heavily skewed to defensive situations rather than offensive situations. Do/should the stats reflect that. Yes apparently they do. Data is useless, perhaps worse than useless, if not put in the proper context.
Data must be interpreted in the context of situational deployment.
And the ability to ask the questions that allow proper context seems to be related to the ability to understand the game by watching it played.
Weird the way that works, eh? 😉
Larsson played 16% of his TOI with McDavid this past season, had massive defensive zone starts, faced top comp and did this with a revolving door of Jones, Russell, Lagesson, Koekkoek and Kulikov as his partner and had a very good season.
The minutes don’t get much tougher than he had.
He very well could get passed by Bouchard and Bear on the 5 on 5 depth chart over the next few years but I don’t think it will be due to regression. Larsson is 28, he’s in his prime now for a defensive d-man and I think he will be in his prime for the next 2-3 years.
If passed on the depth chart, he will play a huge role as 3RD/PK1 and mentor to the young developing D.
I see Larsson as an important part of the the Oilers Stanly Cup contendinship for the next few years.
I think there is an overlooked 3C in Tampa. Tyler Johnson has great numbers, analytics and could fill the 3C role. He plays 4 C, but that is the depth of Tampa that we lack. Of course the money part is the issue, but Tampa is in Cap and Expansion hell. So no reason they wouldn’t eat at least $1.5 mill, and it would only cost a late pick or middle prospect.
And no way Tatar costs that much. One year $3 mill show me deal. And ideally he is a 3LW (actual depth), but he could start top 6.
Resign Nuge for sure
Go get a better goalie, I like Ullmark best as a middle cost option to fill our crease for a few years.
I would rather buyout Koskinen (shorter time on books then Neal) and move Neal with salary retained along with a decent prospect or pick for Ullmark’s rights.
The issues with Johnson are that he is a hobbit (5-8 / 185), getting older (31 start of next season), $5 x 3 left and a M-NTC. Tampa is in a world of hurt cap wise and probably will not be allowed to circumvent the spirit of the cap like they did this year again. They would love (need?) to get rig of Johnson (passed through waivers last year with no takers).
So, assuming the Oilers want him, what would Tampa have to include to make the trade work? Asking for a friend.
LT, I vehemently disagree with that type of lineup.
Darren Helm and Archibald anchoring the wings on a third line? You have two guys who are sub 1 EVP/60. What’s the point of signing Goodrow — who will certainly be looking to et paid — he won’t post his career norms in that type of situation. Archibald on the third line is a failure if you want 50% GF from the bottom six.
You still have Kassian in there, who is another sub 1.0 EP/60 type guy. Yeah maybe he’ll regress but he’s now in the brilliant lazy artist phase of his career in which he only plays when he feels like it.
My take:
If you don’t have time for Benson on 3LW this season, you wouldn’t have given a Coleman or Goodrow type the chance when they broke into the league. Both players were inferior in the AHL to Benson.
Benson has really done all he can and now he needs to play.
Tipp needs to come off his stance that the bottom six is for role player types that get killed at evens. If he is dead set on that, bring in Woodcroft because this season will be critical for incorporating young players. The third and fourth lines should be filled with good even strength players.
McLeod stepped in and didn’t produce but he was better at zone entries than anyone in the bottom six and probably better than Nuge in that area of the game.
Whatever the fear is, it is unfounded. Could we have gotten a better RHD in UFA than what Bear provided in his rookie year?
Nobody is good until they’re good. Let them be good.
Signing a bunch of mediocre guys aging out of their primes is a recipe for disaster.
Darren Helm. 34 year old forward.
Coming off seasons of 7,9 & 3 Goals.
Abomination on CF%rel & FF%rel.
What am I missing?
New free-agent additions are Tatar, Helm, Goodrow, Kulikov. I think this is “representative ” of what Holland might do this summer.
Ken Holland may value this player. I’m creating the roster I think he might create based on his verbal and tendency to re-acquire former players.
He missed the mark bigtime last time he went shopping for Wings …
AA – 9 games cost 2 – 2nds.
Mike Green – 2 games cost a 4th.
Scares me when Holland goes shopping for ex wings
Janmark , Goodrow & Ryan Murray would be reasonable bets .
Mrazek or Halak might also be good bets .
Janmark’s hatty in game 7 against the Wild made him famous and will earn him excess term on his free agency contract…..
Goodrow.
28 yr old power forward.
Never scored more than 8 goals.
Never had a positive CF% or FF% in 5 NHL seasons; And has played on Good Teams (SJ & TB)
What am I missing?
Someone is trying to turn us into the Canucks.
let’s sign Goodrow and Tatar so we can buy them out
“representative”
Hockey isn’t all about scoring goals . That’s not the Oilers problem. It’s keeping the puck out of their own net .
It would be nice to have another player that can win a faceoff besides Leon .
So winning faceoffs but always beimg under 50% CF & FF is OK.
Got it. Bring back Mark Letestu
Seems to me the problem with the Oilers is if the few guys that do score go cold the Oilers are cake walked due to everyone else not being able to score at any point and the coach absolutely having zero grasp of drawing up offense.
Tipps makes zero adjustments, not that NBA and NHL are alike. Yet the Clippers have a coach in Ty Lue that shows everyone what a great coach does. Makes significant in game and in series adjustments that has his team coming back when they have no business doing so. Oilers could win all the face offs and it isn’t going to matter if Tipps can’t create an offense that doesn’t just pray for goals on the rush.
Exactly. 7th overall in scoring last season. 11th in goals against with the bottom six getting caved in differential. Cheaper and easier to fix the bottom six than improve the top six imo.
I’d love to see a little help for the top and bottom (and D and G, lol).
Wouldn’t we all. 😉
Goal & 3C is my hope. Anything more is gravy.
Pretty sure the Oilers had trouble scoring scores in 4 straight games against the Jets.
Huh?
Are you using all situations or something (including PK minutes)?
He’s been a positive 5v5 CF%, FF%, SF% in 4 of the last 4 seasons. GF% only positive 2 of them, xGF% positive 3/4.
He was #2 among Lightning forwards this year in all of CF%, FF%, SF%, GF%.
I’m not on the Goodrow train or anything, but there are some things to recommend him.
LT,
Tomas Tatar and Mike Hoffman are VERY similar players stats wise, with Hoffman the better goal scorer and Tatar the better two way player (of the two) (neither is a shining diamond)
You ( and others ) were fairly high on Hoffman a few years back. At the time, you described him as a probable very good fit for a McDavid wing man.
I get that things have changed in a few years, but are you really higher on Tatar then you are on Hoffman? Or are you leaning Tatar based on his history with Holland?
If Holland is on a track of maximum cap efficiency for one more year, (ie stop gaps/placeholders) It would be very interesting to me to see him make both short term bets.
Hoffman McDavid JP
Tatar Draisaitl Yamamoto
Even more so if Nuge does not resign.
I’d be thrilled with Hoffman, depending on price. My roster today reflects what I think Holland might do, not what I would do. I’ve mentioned this before, but I would sign Dougie Hamilton as the first move of summer.
Rumblings online that Hamilton may come in at 7.5. If true, and he wants to come here, you gotta make it happen. That gives you a little bit of leverage with Nurse as well, in terms of an outer marker.
Hoffman is a liability and another guy like Barrie you have to plan your lineup around. No thanks.
I just don’t see him being good enough defensively to keep pace with a line pushing 60% GF, which is what a McDavid or Draisaitl line should be putting up.
For me, the scenario on Hoffman or Tatar is shopping in the second week of free agency or later in the summer, “IF”, Holland is looking to get through one more year of cap management without any buyouts or retained salary transactions.
On one or two year contracts on vets, both forwards and D.
Hamilton has been my #1 UFA target, but I expect him to come in around $8.25 million.
I think Holland also wants to go bigger on D and F which is why I anticipate a Bear and possibly a Yamamoto trade (gotta make room for Hyman dontchya know, lol).
Maybe this is how we get our RHC in Mike McLeod….
I really hope Holland’s steers clear of Glendening (and Helm).
Dougie Hamilton!?!?
I’d call that a bargain
The best I ever had.
THANK YOU! I wondered if anyone would recognize the title. Well done!
🙂
Now who we gonna drown?
The most innocuous post was just caught in moderation – weird.
Saw that, approved. Words currently flagged:
Trump
bitcoin
Bitcoin
Viagra
military
cialis
Thanks – none of those words were used – weird.
No worries.
Is Hoffman not a PP specialist (for the most part) with an awful 2-way game at 5 on 5.
I think he makes the team worse.
why So many want Tatar?
hes scratched at a time coaches love veterans
1 year reclamation is the most i would go
I chose him because he can deliver offense, Holland knows him and he might be willing to sign in Edmonton. I don’t know if Saad would leave Colorado with the team so close and he may get strong offers from teams closer to winning. Tatar, partly for the reasons you mention, would likely be open to Edmonton. He scored well this past season and there’s every reason to believe he would do the same playing LW with 97.
Please comment on why a LW who cannot make the Montreal roster in the playoffs will assist the Oilers? 5th best LW on Montreal our 1st line?
McDavid.
I definitely have cold feet on Tatar as well.
As LT says he scores well, and his on ice numbers have been spectacular (with no indication anyone is pulling him along). But man, if the coach doesn’t even want you in the lineup, that may not be the player you want to spend $5M on.
Being the GM in Edmonton is hard.
Fans expect every UFA to take a discount to play with Connor and Leon, but every player agent wants a premium to play in Canada and a little more of a premium to play in Calgary, Winnipeg, Ottawa and Edmonton.
We have been chasing analytic and management/coaches with draft picks and it has not been good.
Every year or so we have to root through the over the hill gang to find the just right +29 year old center that has an interesting story but never solves the gaping hole at 3 RC.
Finally if we sign a player for more than $3M – good gord he better bring it every night or the little club of MSM will begin to wonder if you need a change of scenery. Until we are trading a perfectly good player for a couple of picks.
I think players want a premium to play in Toronto as well. Nylander, Matthews, Tavares and Marner’s contracts aren’t exactly team friendly.
Every UFA except Tyson Barrie (who was offered more to play in Vancouver).
I go after Saad in a Maroon role
4-4.5 per and play with mcdavid (Neal bought out cap near even)
Saad Mcdavid JP
Nuge really doesn’t deserve more than 5 per
Nuge (5) Drai. Yamo (2.0 per)
Palat Kadri Archie (Kassian out with a small add)
Sea of Granlunds
hey a guy can dream
but probably more likely one of Saad Palat and random 3C
What a player ‘deserves’ doesn’t really have anything to do with how much a UFA will make, of course.
I know you know this but I think it needs to be said a few times as we get closer to the signing frenzy. This is even more true during an expansion year but even in more normal times a team that wants to keep a player has to bid to some extent against what the most desperate GM in another city would offer while the player has to weigh his desire to maximize his earnings against the depressing idea of losing night after night for a franchise that has no chance to win.
Pretty sure that only chance to sign him for less than $6 M is to go long and Holland is probably fighting for 6 years while the agent will want 8. UFA contracts for high profile players are rarely value contracts.
Count me in if Saad will sign for that.
The other stuff too, if there’s a way to make it happen…
I don’t agree that Nuge doesn’t deserve more than $5M.
Nuge has a career history that is longer than last year. This isn’t a 31 year old player where its reasonable to suggest that his bad year was the start of the cliff.
I find it much more likely that Nuge bounces back to historical norms (for a number of years) than a repeat of last season’s production.
Last season takes his cap future AAV down from around $7M to around $6M and he’ll likely be close to value for that – anything below $6M is a win for me.
I didn’t say any of the things you’re responding to here.
The other moves/deals are unlikely good IMO, hence ‘if there’s a way to make it happen…’
I was responding to other posts in the thread, just clicked on “reply” to the last post.
?
I’d be happy to see Wennberg signed to 3C
Yup, 3 years X $3.25M – is that the right ballpark?
Hi LT, latest post held up for approval. Nothing remotely controversial in it, so it does appear that posts over a certain length trigger this additional moderation protection. No worries if that’s your wish. Makes perfect sense. Don’t need anyone publishing their Unabomber manifesto. ?
Bitcoin is in the filter. 🙂 It is now published.
Ha ha. I realized that after the fact. I can’t say you didn’t warn me! ?
lol. Well, now we know it works!!
El Salvador now has two currencies that are legal tender. 20% of GDP is remittances, Where the middlemen typically take 10-25% of the remittance. With their 2nd new legal tender currency, with mass adoption of the proper wallets, they remittances can be executed with essentially zero cost (fractions of pennies on even small dollar tranactions) It can be US dollars in,and US dollars out if one so chooses, without ever seeing the monetary network of the second currency in action.
So the second currency, once adopted, without doing anything other then eliminating the middleman on remittances, will raise the GDP of El Salvador by 5-10%.
One of the poorest countries in the world.
In many Latin American countries, one can now send dollars and receive more dollars in the poor country because the price of the currency that cannot be named is higher in the poor country than in developed countries, because of the price difference of the currency that cannot be named. So a remittance actually becomes a negative cost transaction.
The monetary network plus the Lightning network overlay is fast becoming the cheapest money transfer service in the world. And the end users, never have to touch said unnamed currency. It can be established fiat to the establshed or local fiat currency at the destination. And basically instantly compared to traditional wire services.
Mintchip.