Oscar from Karlstad

by Lowetide

Oscar Klefbom photo by Rob Ferguson

Oscar Klefbom was drafted in the first round of the 2011 draft. It was Season 2 for the hit series Oil Change! and the club finally dedicated a first-round selection to a defenseman who could skate. After that, we got reports from Sweden about skills, shoulders, concussions and infections. I wrote about 12 posts on this blog with the title Dammit Oscar! as injuries and maladies impacted his possible future.

The photo you see is from October 5, 2013, as the Oklahoma City Barons played the Charlotte Checkers in a game at the Cox Convention Center in Oklahoma City. The boxscore is here.

I loved watching him play. Klefbom was Edmonton’s best defenseman for much of his time with the team, a two-way defender who played big minutes and scored some memorable goals. If this is it, sail on Färjestad BK Klefbom, we’ll never forget you and we are hurting because we didn’t get more time to watch you play this beautiful game. Be well.

THE ATHLETIC!

I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here’s the latest!

NHLE’S FROM 2015

Ever wonder if NHL equivalencies predict future NHL success? The answer is yes! And no. For top end talent, graduating juniors chosen in the top-5 overall, it works like a damn. For the future checking center who peaks at 11 goals and 21 points in an NHL season, it’s not tracking the future at all. Here are the 2015 numbers:

FORWARDS

  1. Connor McDavid 82GP, 23-40-63 (407 NHL games)
  2. Leon Draisaitl 82GP, 15-26-41 (478)
  3. Andrew Miller 82GP, 15-20-35 (15)
  4. Kyle Platzer 82GP, 12-17-29
  5. Anton Slepyshev 82GP, 17-11-28 (102)
  6. Iiro Pakarinen 82GP, 16-10-26 (134)
  7. Greg Chase 82GP, 8-16-24
  8. Bogdan Yakimov 82GP, 10-13-23 (1)
  9. L Kale Kessy 82GP, 8-8-16
  10. Jujhar Khaira 82GP, 4-5-9 (258)
  11. Mitch Moroz 82GP, 3-3-6
  12. Travis Ewanyk 82GP, 2-3-5

NHLE predicted McDavid and Draisaitl were going to play a lot of games and score many points, but I think the hockey world had that surrounded in the summer of 2015. It did tell us there were no skill forwards beyond those two men, though, and that there’s a certain randomness about the bottom-six forwards who make it. Slepyshev is a tweener by this measure and Khaira succeeded for reasons other than his offense. What does that mean for the current group? Well, I’d say we’re all underrating Ostap Safin.

DEFENSE

  1. Joey Laleggia 82GP, 14-23-37
  2. Brad Hunt 82GP, 11-19-30 (191 NHL games)
  3. Darnell Nurse 82GP, 7-16-23 (406)
  4. Jordan Oesterle 82GP, 5-9-14 (252)
  5. Ben Betker 82GP, 2-10-12
  6. Dillon Simpson 82GP, 2-9-11 (3)
  7. David Musil 82GP, 1-7-8 (4)
  8. Brandon Davidson 82GP, 3-4-7 (180)

What does NHLE tell us about the future of defensemen? Not as much as one would hope, although three of the top four names on this list landed NHL careers. I can’t tell you that NHLE predicted Nurse’s offense (in his most recent 82 NHL games, Nurse has posted 17-31-48) but he did pass the 20-points threshold NHLE and that’s a line in the sand I use as a measure of possible future success. I think size and skating ability are things to look for in defensemen, suggesting Dmitri Samorukov and Philip Broberg are the players to watch in the modern group.

2020-21 NHL EQUVALENCIES (F)

  1. Dylan Holloway (Big-10) 41.6
  2. Ryan McLeod (AHL) 39.9
  3. Tyler Benson (AHL) 39.9
  4. Cooper Marody (AHL) 37.8
  5. Kirill Maksimov (VHL) 31.2
  6. Carter Savoie (NCHC) 30.0
  7. Tyler Tullio (OHL 2019-20) 28.2
  8. Raphael Lavoie (Allsvenskan) 26.0
  9. Maxim Denezhkin (VHL) 21.2
  10. Joe Gambardella (AHL) 19.2
  11. Maxim Berezkin (MHL) 16.5
  12. Filip Engaras (Hockey East) 16.1
  13. Ostap Safin (AHL) 10.9
  14. Skyler Brind’Amour (ECAC) 8.8
  15. Patrik Siikanen (Liiga) 7.2
  16. Jeremias Lindewall (Allsvenskan) 4.1

Don’t expect McDavid or Draisaitl level talent, but Holloway and Savoie are young and deliver offense. Benson is on par with Miller and three years younger, that’s a positive. Anyone above 30 NHLE is worth tracking and I’ll include Tullio because we’re using his 2019-20 number here. Lavoie is a little low but his 2019-20 number (35) was solid so I’ll suggest he’s on track as a possible top-six solution.

2020-21 NHL EQUVALENCIES (D)

  1. William Lagesson (Allsvenskan) 25.3
  2. Evan Bouchard (Allsvenskan) 21.8
  3. Theodor Lennstrom (AHL) 14.7
  4. Philip Broberg (SHL) 13.7
  5. Filip Berglund (SHL) 12.2
  6. Markus Niemelainen (AHL) 11.4
  7. Dmitri Samorukov (KHL) 11.0
  8. Matt Cairns (NCHC) 8.0
  9. Mike Kesselring (AHL) 5.7
  10. Phil Kemp (AHL) 3.3

You may recall Lagesson was on fire in the Allsvenskan during the year, he landed in the NHL and was hot news for a time. I’m not exactly sure where he is as an Oilers player at this point in time. Bouchard’s numbers in the Allsvenskan were good if unspectacular, Broberg got some power play time so his numbers were stronger this year. I see him as a match for Klefbom, whose NHLE (same age, same league) was 13.0 back in the 2012-13 season. Samorukov may eat everyone’s lunch, this is an interesting group.

OILERS EXPANSION LIST

Klefbom’s news means Holland and the Oilers have a decision to make. If the big defender can’t play in 2021-22, and based on Jason Gregor’s intel things are heading that way, the protected list might look like this:

  • Goalie: Alex Stalock
  • Defensemen: Darnell Nurse, Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones
  • Forwards: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Jesse Puljujarvi, Kailer Yamamoto, Tyler Benson, Josh Archibald, Jujhar Khaira

That would mean G Mikko Koskinen, G Stuart Skinner, D William Lagesson, D Kris Russell, D Oscar Klefbom, LW James Neal, RW Zack Kassian, RW Kyle Turris, LW Devin Shore, RW Cooper Marody and LW Dominik Kahun are available.

If I’m Seattle, it’s Kahun.

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Bling

That is a really, really solid piece of work by Holland. I criticized him yesterday but he came through on this signing. The NMC is the price to pay, but at that cap hit I think it’s fine.

I listed Bergeron and Krejci as older guys who still have a ton of game. TJ Oshie and David Perron came up on my list of guys who are very effective in their 30s, despite having had an off year even strength scoring wise in their late 20s.

This is a big win, good day to be an Oilers fan.

DevilsLettuce

It’s matches the no Nuge move clause in my heart. Nuge is a forever Oiler wooooooooo and at a very nice price. Holland you glorious bastard

OriginalPouzar

Rishaug says its done, 8 years, $41M with a NMC.

I’m 100% fine with the AAV, of course. Term is long but I don’t think this player regresses off a cliff in his early 30s – I’ve said for a while, I think he’ll age gracefully.

GordieHoweHatTrick

Mixed feelings about this
love Nuge. I thought KH was playing with $30k on this, not 40
Performance numbers need to be much better than this past year for the next several years, otherwise this contract is a problem. He does not jive with McD @ 5v5.
Now find an “ideal” LW for McD for about 2 years and we can wait and see if Holloway it Lavoie can jive with him in due development time course…

when the dust settles this summer Kenny should complete the Nurse contract extension to keep the band together for as long as possible (meaning eyeballing keeping MCDrai around for 2nds as well …

jp

He’d be 35 in the final season. That’s a nice AAV though.

Wonder who it’ll bump off the protected list. Would be 2 spots for Archibald, Khaira, Kassian, Benson at this point.

Would be really cool if the speculation about adding a 3C pre-draft also comes true.

Bling

I love the deal.

The NMC is a risk you take. Nuge at ~ 5 million cap hit means he can play the role of elder statesmen the last 2-3 years of the deal as 3C or 3LW helping to break young guys into the lineup.

Although not on their level, the upside is he ages like a Bergeron or Krejci.

jp

The NMC is a risk you take.

So you’re saying he really didn’t want to go be with his horses?

BornInAGretzkyJersey

What a great way to start the day.

Fantastic AAV and I’m more than happy to see The Nuge (potentially) retire as an Oiler.

OriginalPouzar

Looks like Nuge may be close to signing, 8 years, $5M – per Friedman.

Reja

Habs have a lot of game in them this series is going 7.

Foege Foegele Torpe

cities in Canada?
Definitely, we are truly blessed even if we’re talking about Calgary.
Our cities are clean, beautiful and comparatively low in crime.

Harpers Hair

So you think hockey math is challenging.

Try this.

https://quillette.com/2021/06/28/mate-selection-for-modernity/

Prairie_Sentinel

I’ll see your mate selection math, and raise you…..Steiner math.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=msDuNZyYAIQ

Harpers Hair

WOOT!!!!

Harpers Hair

You must be happy to be free of Calgary.

The Purple Prince has extended mask mandates indefinitely.

OriginalPouzar

It was City Council that voted on the mask repeal, vote was 7-7 so it didn’t pass. Nenshi had one vote.

Council will meet again July 5 on the mask mandate.

godot10

So one could say that Nenshi was the deciding vote.

Harpers Hair

Like I said…extended indefinitely.

OriginalPouzar

Extended by city council, not by Nenshi with the next note to take place within a few weeks and four days after the provincial mandate is lifted. No definite date, that is correct but the implication of the statement that there is no end in sight seems a bit dishonest.

Harpers Hair

Like I said…extended indefinitely.

defmn

I loved a lot of things about Calgary. It was my wife who wanted to move.

We had a penthouse condo on the 25th floor a block off of the river valley just west of Prince’s Island downtown surrounded by excellent restaurants and walking distance to Chinatown.

I am a man of simple needs. I was happy there. Nenshi is an idiot.

Harpers Hair

Grew up just across the river from there in Sunnyside.

defmn

Beautiful neighbourhood. We walked there quite often.

Harpers Hair

Attending the Calgary Folk Festival on Prince’s Island was always a special experience.

defmn

Prince’s Island is just beautiful. The Calgary river valley in general was a pleasant surprise when we got there.

Harpers Hair

Having lived in Calgary, Edmonton, Vancouver and Toronto (briefly) Calgary easily tops my list as tops in major Canadian cities for quality of life.
Shame about that city council.

Randle McMurphy

I wonder what McDavid thinks when he watches the semi’s and the final.

The tight checking, the non calls, the team defense, the great goal-tending.

Does he see things that he could use to his advantage. Does he think of ways he might adapt his game to suit the playoffs.
.
.
.

Does he dream of scoring the game winner in game 7 on a stretch pass from Tyson Barrie.

Should I have stopped after the first three lines?

Last edited 3 months ago by Randle McMurphy
Ice Sage

Cinderella Habs approaching midnight… (I said this last round, mind)

defmn

I really didn’t want the cheaters to win but Montreal has no chance imo.

Last edited 3 months ago by defmn
Ice Sage

Worked for them a few times!
TB looks about 10 million $ better right now

defmn

Yup. Maybe 20.

Groggie

Oofh. 17 mil better. And they were physical. Montreal’s small forwards looked … well small … and scared. They stood tall against Vegas but man , TB looks so elite right now.

Reja

The Habs will steal game 2. Book it!

Reja

That was a old school save by Price he gave him the top corner and snatched it away what a save.

Reja

Maroon still does his job when it counts.

Reja

Man l love me some Josh Anderson why can’t Kassian play this way maybe he has no anger left in him.

Bobcaygeon

I smell a trade for Dunn coming up.

Randle McMurphy

Spray some scented freshner.

GordieHoweHatTrick

Come on Carey
4W = Cup + Conn
for your Country 😜

GordieHoweHatTrick

I think some of the moves of the past few years are coming into view.
broberg was a decent pick but also significant Klef LTIR insurance.

Harpers Hair

Friedman with some thoughts about Seattle flipping D taken in the expansion draft.

There are definitely teams concerned that the Kraken will draft exposed players and flip them elsewhere. For example, would Seattle draft a Matt Dumba or a Mark Giordano, potentially eat some salary and take bids? Either player makes sense for someone like Edmonton.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/31-thoughts-blackhawks-must-publicly-address-sexual-assault-allegations/

defmn

I’ve been wondering about Dumba as a trade target for the Oilers.

I guess it depends on whether or not Suter agrees to waive his NMC as to whether or not they can protect him. I think Suter does that now that Minny has competent management. I doubt Seattle would take him at age 36 with 4 more years at $7.5 M.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Dumba has been a target of mine since the ’12 draft. I really wanted to trade down and pick him plus another asset.

What I like about trading for him now is that he’s a known quantity who’s been well developed and his contract isn’t toxic. He’d have a year to gel with the team and for Old Dutch to negotiate an extension if warranted/desired.

His style is a fit for the team and I’d LOVE to see him paired alongside Nurse.

Scungilli Slushy

Dumba is too expensive and developing an injury history being a physical 185 lb D.

Getting Gio is like getting Manning. What type of asshat does that? And twice to Connor? Not too mention the it’s the ghost of Gio, he’s done.

Hard pass twice.

Harpers Hair

Holy over-reaction.

Giordano would be a great replacement for Klefbom with one year left on his contract allowing Broberg and Samorukov one more season to develop.

I would imagine Seattle will want to keep Dumba if they don’t sign Hamilton.

DevilsLettuce

This is hilarious. Gio is done, he’s not a great replacement for anyone. He’d be an absolute train wreck in Oiler silks which is why you pump the tires for it.

Reja

Sather or Lowe would never take any Flame retreads they had pride in the jersey.

OriginalPouzar

I would have no problem with former Flame Dougie Hamilton on the Oilers.

Reja

If the deal with Boston happened wow things sure would have been different.

unca miltie

that is so true. I had Jamie Mccoun sign my Oilers jacket at an alumni game. He said a few years earlier and it would never have happened. the hate was real

Bad Seed

Why would you ever have a dirty flame sign an Oilers jacket?

Material Elvis

Especially Macoun. He’s not a nice guy off the ice either. I regularly play in the yearly spring ProAm tournament in Edmonton and have had the displeasure of meeting him several times. Only Bernie Nichols rivals him in Prick/60.

defmn

Yeah, I have nothing good to say about Nichols either. Horrible person.

Reja

How could you not love the pumpernickel celebration it’s up there with Tiger Williams.

Scungilli Slushy

I calls them like I sees them. I was at no time emotional. About that.

Reja

You could get away with wearing a Islander jersey but if you wore a Flames jersey playing shinny you were targeted for pain and if were stupid enough to go into a drinking establishment the fight was on and it was real no candy ass shit.

McNuge93

How about the Canucks or Avs trade for Gio. They need him more.

Reja

I just had a vision that Yamo plus is headed to Seattle.

Elgin R

The owners may value a ‘local’ (Spokane isn’t that far away) player and instruct Francis to make it so. It would have to be a very good player, with term, coming back as KY is really good and will have a very nice career.

OriginalPouzar

1) This issue with Gio, for me, isn’t the “McDavid incident”, its that he’s already a third of the way down the other side of the cliff and I don’t think he’s coming to Edmonton on a one-year value deal.

2) I would be very happy if ownership of the Oilers’ new division rival was meddling in to hockey ops and player procurement. I don’t imagine Ron Francis is taking these types of instructions from ownership (nor does he care what part of North America a player grew up in).

Scungilli Slushy

You should not discount that Gio had another go at his knee post doc, and Connor was so pissed, after taking the higher road, and letting the knee butcher (established track record) on his doc, that he broke his stick after.

Reja

Sneaky Gio found Connors weakness and he will not allow Connor to beat him to the outside without taking his knees out.

Bobcaygeon

We’ve all seen McDavid use Gio as a Pylon, that’s why Gio is forever lying on his stomach swinging his stick in a vain attempt to tip the puck away.
McDavid actually targets Gio on the ice.

OriginalPouzar

The Oiler have to aim way higher. And they really shouldn’t qualify him because of arbitration risk. An arbitrator might double his salary. The Oilers cannot afford that. Let him become a UFA, and sign him for $1 million again if Seattle doesn’t pick him.

I don’t know if there is a real risk of a big arbitration award and I’ve previously suggested that an arbitration filing has big benefits as it would open up a second buyout window which would buy Holland much more time to determine if a buyout of Neal (or Koskinen) is needed.

It would be great if they came to a contract agreement with Kahun but told him to file for arb to open up the 2nd window, and then sign the deal prior to the arb hearding.

That’s some Lou L. level managing…..

Bling

That’s a cool idea.

I am not sure where this idea of a huge arbitration award for Kahun is coming from (not saying it is you).

I still think Kahun is a fine value even with a slight bump in pay. There is upside to the player beyond what he has shown, IMO.

godot10

The arbitrators do not factor in the collapse in revenues or the cap constraints of teams because of the pandemic. Or the supply of players on the market.

Based on his history. Kahun could easily double his salary in arbitration from $1 million to $2 million. The Oilers cannot afford that.

OriginalPouzar

Arbitrators are limited in how far back they can go with comparables and will need to use contracts that were signed last off-season and this off-season (prior to the arbitration hearing).

The premise here though, is a deal is agreed to, just signed later in the summer in order to buy Holland more time to ascertain how much cap space he will need once the real procurement season is happening.

N64

Unless someone shows otherwise I’d assume OP is right. That arbitrators are looking at current/recent market rates and slotting players in. Doubt going to arb gets growth not available in the market.

OriginalPouzar

I think its 3 years they are limited to so they will be able to use pre-Covid comparables but last year’s would 100% be included.

godot10

Kahun is a 10-15 goal 30-35 point guy. Pretty sure that can get him close to $2 million.

OriginalPouzar

Couldn’t last off-season and arbitrators will need to take last season’s contracts in to account.

jp

I agree with Godot, he very well could get $2M.

Didn’t he say he had better offers last summer anyway?

At 15G, 35PTS, maybe Kassian and Chiasson will even be comparables 😉

Scungilli Slushy

I think that they can afford a 2M contract, just not for a player of that type. Or any amount at all for that type.

We see it year after year in the playoffs. Solid two way types (meaning not puck averse if not a consistent scoring threat) suddenly becoming far more effective when the league changes the game being played to something that suits them much better.

The league will get pushed to be better, but that will be like what glacial melting used to be.

Reja

I was pissed when Holland reached on the Broberg pick instead of choosing one of the hot shot yankee players. If Kelfbom is finished and Holland obviously knew it was headed in this direction then the pick makes more than perfect sense.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Look at you finally coming around.

It’s almost like Holland, who had ample time to view the USNDTP kids playing in his very back yard, had an idea of how overrated they were in the MSM/blogosphere. Or the degree to which they were zooming one another.

Maybe he actually does know how to run a draft, after all…

Harpers Hair

Yeah…Caulfield and Zegras look like stiffs so far.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Too soon to tell, generally speaking.

But from a 30,000 ft point of view, sizeable top pairing defensemen who can skate like the wind are rarely acquired via trade.

Godot was on the Klefbom replacement angle very early.

Scungilli Slushy

This is what Holland said after the draft in essence. If you want one you draft one, like a top tier goalie. With goalies you are relying on developmental luck otherwise.

Luck is involved with every draft pick past half way in the first round, for skaters for sure, and goalies also. The success numbers which are well studied show that.

A chump like me had a look at the goalies that stay dominant over time and a lot were first rounders, especially the best, which to me is not surprising – the best at their position in the world in their cohort.

Some fail to hit the mark, but so do a lot of ‘skaters’.

It’s just that there are two goalies on a roster and a few more in a system, the misses are like a big red zit on your nose. Lots of other high picks don’t live up to draft day expectations, but there are so many more skaters it washes out.

Last edited 3 months ago by Scungilli Slushy
Harpers Hair

They are available quite frequently actually.

Do you want me to make a list?

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Please do.

Harpers Hair

The fallacy of that strategy is already apparent since Broberg is not ready to replace Klefbom and may not be be for a season or two.

Holland could have, and should have, drafted the top 6 winger he so desperately needs
and replaced Klefbom by other means.

LH second pairing D are not all that hard to find.

Reja

I know golden boy Broberg will not get the same bush league treatment benchwarmer Bouchard has had to endure. OP are whoever else can spin it any way they want but it ain’t right you ice the best possible team. Tippett needs to be held accountable for losing 7 out of 8 playoff games with 2 MVP’s down the middle.

OriginalPouzar

Bouchard played 7 NHL games in his draft plus 1 and 14 in his draft plus 3 and sent his entire draft plus 3 in the NHL.

Broberg has played zero NHL games in his draft plus 1 or his draft plus 2 – we’ll see what happens in draft plus 3 but it seems likely he starts in the AHL, potentially spends the entire year in the AHL.

Reja

Because unlike Bouchard he’s not ready.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Lol obviously.

Broberg was drafted a year after Bouchard.

Not to mention they’re not identical players whom you can just assume will bring an equivalent impact, all else equal. That’s like saying Larsson and Klefbom are the same (who were actually drafted in the same year). It’s just a bad position to put forward, let alone constantly try to defend.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Except there was no clear option within the pipeline, leftorium be damned.

He picked in his mind the BPA, and I’m not going to quibble about it.

History will show that acquiring top two defensemen and quality starting goalies is much harder than other players.

Unless you can prove otherwise… Holland likely made the right choice drafting Broberg. Strategically speaking.

Reja

He’s to busy under Holland’s desk to notice any other moves good are bad that are happening.

Bling

Broberg is such a fascinating player. His development will be incredible to watch.

If Klefbom’s career is indeed over, I wonder if he would be open to coming aboard as a skills/development coach, certainly plenty that he could impart upon the young D coming in.

€√¥£€^$

I 1000% don’t understand protecting Stalock over Skinner…

MushedPeas

RITE?

Bling

Stauffer, a team insider, not having Benson/Kahun/Jones on the protected list whilst including Archibald/Kassian/Khaira epitomizes what it is now to be an Oilers fan: there is nothing to cheer for, only the next stupid roster move to anticipate/dread.

LT — and I don’t mean this as an insult to him — tries to predict what Holland would do, i.e. sign Darren Helm, and it’s positively dripping with, “you know, I know a guy from my days in Detroit.” It’s a waste of LT’s time, why does he have to guess at the dumbest possible move? Because that’s what being an Oiler fan now is.

Did you know Bob Nicholson has now hired two general managers without conducting an interview? Imagine being Bob, collecting a salary, and being able to sleep at night. The no-interview hiring process is great for Chiarelli and Holland, neither of whom I have ever witnessed expressing a clear, succinct, cogent idea in a press conference.

The Oilers have become good at exposing morons masquerading as managers by hiring them on a whim, but next time can we hire the smart person with a plan?

Reja

if Holland is inducted into the hall of fame he certainly won’t be wearing a Oiler jersey.

MushedPeas

If he is I don’t mind if it’s for the wrong reasons (i.e. spectacular dumb luck).

BornInAGretzkyJersey
Reja

After losing 7 out of 8 playoff games my memory has been blocked.

defmn

Daniel Nugent-Bowman
@DNBsports
·
1h
The Oilers have hired Joel Jackson as assistant strength and conditioning coach. He’d been a performance coach at the University of Alberta since 2015, working with athletes in hockey, wrestling, golf, swimming, and volleyball.

defmn

Seattle Kraken
@SeattleKraken
·
2h
In partnership with the Florida Panthers, we’re excited to announce the Charlotte Checkers as our AHL affiliate, until we open our doors in Palm Desert.

leadfarmer

If we are keeping the Kahun’s the Shores how are we going to improve this roster?

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Improve? Je ne comprends pas.

OriginalPouzar

Because none of them are guaranteed roster spots.

Kahun can compete with the likes of Benson and Holloway for a middle six LW spot, for example. If Kahun doesn’t show well, he can be the 13/14F or even waived and assigned to the AHL.

Same thing with Shore, he’s competing with the likes of Khaira for a 4th line/PK spot.

Confused

Who knows why they like Shore.
But are we really going to improve upon Kahun at 3LW?

Reja

Because he’s a good ole boy

Scungilli Slushy

Can’t happen.

winchester

Thoughts on these players?

Josh Manson – despite a rightie, he is the type of d man I think the Oil are looking for. Costs relatively low, Ducks want to move him

Tyler Jost – blocked talent?

Braden Holtby – does he have high caliber games left in him? Vancouver would pay to move him.

OriginalPouzar

Jost is a “expansion draft” target of mine but I can’t think of a deal that works for the Avs – they have protection issues at both forward and defence so won’t be looking for players that are exempt back, presumably.

Scungilli Slushy

Donskoi was that only third liner that produced. Jost is another small C that can’t win faceoffs, gets hurt a lot, and is getting zoomed on a strong team. Also a leftie.

They need someone clearly better than McLeod (preferably a RC that can win a faceoff when it counts most) who walked in and didn’t get lit up, is far bigger and extremely fast.

OriginalPouzar

Lots of good stuff from Gregor in his OilersNation article this morning including tidbits on Kahun and Khaira and with respect to agreeing to deals with internal free agents and waiting until after the expansion draft to sign (and if that’s a potential).

I won’t post what he’s hearing on these things…….. but they are in here:

https://oilersnation.com/2021/06/28/monday-musings-oscar-klefbom-and-more/

Reja

Teachers pet.

Reja

Lighten up it’s a joke you obviously are a very stiff human being Captain Obvious.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Or I find your jokes on par with your ability to evaluate talent and make predictions.

Predictably bad.

SpotTheLoon

None of us know about the exact nature of Klefbom’s surgery but I can speak generally as I have had three shoulder surgeries in the past two years. All of mine were for torn rotator cuff repairs as well removal of scar tissue and cleaning out the joint due to arthritis. Obviously, I am not a professional athlete. One shoulder was done twice as the anchor pulled out of the bone and the surgery had to be done again to repair the failed original surgery.

At three months, you are getting close to generally having range of motion restored. However, it is only then that you can start to work on strengthening and lifting much in the way of weight to fully restore the strength of the shoulder. They say you can regain most activities after six months but you still need to be reasonably careful at that point. Things like swimming and golf are okay but you also need to be careful and not push it too hard. It really took about a year for my shoulders to feel ‘normal’ again after the surgeries.

Again, we don’t know the specific nature of the surgery, whether there was a shoulder replacement or whether it was simply tissue damage repair. But from what they told me, tendons take quite some time to fully repair and for the reattachment to grow in to the bone and properly reattach and strengthen.

The point that Klefbom raised about not being able to sleep at night with pain is apparently one of the most common things that people experience where there is a torn rotator cuff. It aches and can be very painful. That is ultimately why I had my shoulders done.

I’m not a professional athlete and the most physical thing I may do is occasionally bump someone out of the way in the queue for lunch but it is a slow healing process. Based on my experience, I can see why they are optimistic at the three month mark but to know if things heal to a point where you can perform the physical tasks that an NHL defenseman would will not be known for quite some time.

Moonlight Overthrow

I was trying to remain optimistic about Klef, but this article killed it.

Hope he can return to a happy, normal private life. He’ll be missed on the Oilers if he can no longer play.

OriginalPouzar

Klefbom’s news means Holland and the Oilers have a decision to make. If the big defender can’t play in 2021-22, and based on Jason Gregor’s intel things are heading that way, the protected list might look like this:

I can’t deny that the overall “mood” on Klef isn’t overly positive but I would like to note, again, that:

1) Gregor went in to the weekend with the opinion that 99.9% Klef was not returning….. he stated that on his show (I believe when LT was on); and

2) Gregor ended the weekend stating that the odds of Klef starting the season were low.

To me, that is a softening of the stance and an “improvement” in Klef’s potential of playing this season vis-a-vis Gregor.

I’ve always been hopeful that Klef would be activated as some point during the 2021/22 season – never really thought he’d be there for opening night. I remain of the same position.

I fully admit and acknowledge that he may not be activated at all this season but, again, that is something that we simply do not know and Gregor’s tweet yesterday spoke about a low chance of starting the season – not “no chance of playing at all” which was his prior position.

Harpers Hair

From the article you just linked to.

One source said, “I think it is 95% that he won’t play again.” And I would agree with that. 

defmn

95% is probably Gregor being respectful to Klefbom.

I am in complete agreement with the part below. I hope it is alright to quote this snippet.

Klef always struck me as thoughtful and self-reflective. I wish him well and also hope having to walk away from his passion for hockey is not too painful.

Klefbom has always struck me as someone who was more than a hockey player. He loved hockey, but in our conversations over the past decade, he didn’t view himself solely as an NHL player. He spoke excitedly about other interests. If he is unable to play again, I hope he is able to accept it without much pain and suffering.

Reja

There is no way Francis is gambling that Kelfbom and Holland are pulling a sting on him by not protecting Kelfbom. I’ll eat my left shoe if Francis chooses Kelfbom if he’s left unprotected.

Reja

You never hear players talk about chronic pain and Quality of life like being able to shampoo hair put dishes in upper cupboard etc this was the big tell that’s he’s not returning. The being paid for 2 more years eases the pain a bit but unless he’s getting heavily pilled up like so many football players are forced to with no guarantee salary I can’t see him returning.

Bling

I don’t share your optimism at all.

Klef has bad arthritis and presumably exposed bone (disclaimer: I don’t know any specifics of his injury other than what is already out there, this is a guess). I base that on his reporting he could not sleep at night. That’s a typical thing for a rotator cuff tear or bad arthritis. That means he’s one hard hit away from getting a subchondral fracture. He has probably had multiple in the past. A cortisone shot is not going to do anything for that.

Whether Klef wants to or is capable of returning doesn’t matter. He will either get hit and get knocked out of the lineup, or get hit and play through pain and be much less effective for it.

Either way, you can’t count on him to be a consistent presence in the lineup.

OriginalPouzar

Lots and lots and lots of consternation regarding Stauff’s protected list and the inclusion of Kassian. I totally get it, I would 100% not have Kassian on the protected list.

First things first, while Stauff clearly is “an insider” with numerous connections, including within the org, Stauffer does tweet out lots of his opinion and lots of stuff that is not “info from the org”.

I would stop short of equating Stauff’s list with that of Oilers’ management.

At the same time, I have posted wonderance regarding Holland and Oilers management and the potential protection of Kassian. I am of the opinion that, while teams likely value Kassian as a player (mostly on the player than he has been and on the premise that he may be again, with more consistency), his contract is still so bloated that he doesn’t have straight up trade value.

My thoughts are similar for the Oilers’ organization – the team and management 100% values Kassian and the player that he can be. The see the need for a “Kassian type player”, the player we saw for much of calendar year 2019. I would think they realize that contract is bloated and their decision is if the potential for what Kassian can potentially bring is worth keeping the bloated contract and, in connection therewith, if they believe the contract is tradeable without retention?

I truly hope the org, while valuing the potential player, realizes that the contract is simply too bloated and, while losing Kassian off the roster could hurt (i.e. he could potentially be 2019 Kassian), $3.1M can buy more than what Kass has brought in a LONG time.

The org should be ecstatic if Seattle took Kass – taking his contract and allowing the team to keep the likes of Jones or Benson or whoever else would have been chosen.

Yes, the team could use a 2019-Kassian type player but recent Kassian is nowhere close and he’s aging.

I’m not sure what’s better for the org, Seattle taking Kass or Seattle signing Barrie…… either way, Kass should be made available.

I hope the org doesn’t over-value what once was but has not been seen for a year and a half.

winchester

Kassian is/was my guess going to Seattle.

A player like Benson or Laggeson may help the new team but value is low.

Kracken can retain dollars on Kassian and flip him instantly for a roster player or draft picks, maybe a second.

Moonlight Overthrow

Kassian to Seattle is the dream.

Benson and Lagesson are unestablished players and likely don’t have a ton of value to opposing teams. Seattle is likely looking for more proven commodities.

Although he hasn’t played well in ages, Kassian still offers what some GM’s covet: speed, size, truculence (at least the perception of it). Hopefully one of them takes a chance.

Elgin R

So Kassian has $3.2m x 3 left. Assume the Kraken retain the max (50%). Is Kassian @ $1.6 x 3 worth a low first round pick or high second. I would think he would be. I think Francis is going to take the long-road here and trades like that are what will make this team really good in 5 years.

Bling

The one thing with Kassian is if he does have value around the league — even if it’s just picks — it does make some sense to protect him and flip him for those picks instead of allowing Seattle to do it.

I really don’t see the point of protecting Khaira and Archibald. Seems like an ideal time for Holland to make a trade for a 3C and use a spot on that player.

Moonlight Overthrow

Agreed. Protecting players like Khaira and Archibald really highlight the lack of depth on the team. These are replaceable players.

Hopefully Holland has some moves up his sleeve to take advantage of teams in a less than desirable position and protect players that have more value.

OriginalPouzar

Bling

 Reply to OriginalPouzar

 June 28, 2021 12:40 pm

The one thing with Kassian is if he does have value around the league — even if it’s just picks — it does make some sense to protect him and flip him for those picks instead of allowing Seattle to do it.

Does he have value though, at $3.2M X 3?

I don’t think he can be traded straight up for “no return”.

I mean, is Archie Henderson leading the pro scouts of the other teams?

At $1M retained, I think they can trade him for a middling pick but I’d prefer to give Seattle the chance to make the mistake.

Randle McMurphy

I believe he intends to trade for a 3C prior to the expansion draft.

Darth Tu

Yeah, I didn’t go that far with my point below, but I do agree that exposing Kassian might be a good idea if we do indeed want/need to lose the player. The Kraken aren’t going to have much available to them in terms of forwards so may jump at taking Kassian if he’s available.

At the same time if it means we can protect Benson (who does have value) and then Kassian isn’t taken then we still have the “potential” of Kassian.

I’m not in the run Kassian out of town camp at all, I still think he has value even if the contract is a little bloated. However I think exposing him and protecting Benson is an acceptable risk.

OriginalPouzar

I hear you and don’t disagree.

With respect to Kassian’s contract though, I think it was “a little bloated” the day he was signed, in the pre-Covid era when he was only a month or so removed from playing well.

I think, currently, in the Covid era, 18 months removed from any pulse (save one game in the play-in), that’s a anchor contract. His play over in 2020 and 2021 was pretty much healthy scratch worthy, on the Oilers.

Bling

I suspect Kassian could be rid of one way or another — expansion draft or through trade.

If there is a trade on the table, we could use the picks and I would prefer to keep Kassian for that. The cap savings alone could pay for Nurse’s next raise, for example, or for Bear’s next contract.

Seattle signing Barrie would be the real boon. I think it has a real chance of happening. If that happens, we keep Jones. Maybe Jones is not the long term answer at LHD (Samorukov, Broberg etc), but what if he has a strong year as a second pairing D?

A cheap young guy who excels at the transition game and can put up offence without seeing a sniff of PP time could command a solid return.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Stauffer was talking today about execs from the East inquiring about Kassian.

There’s hope yet, unless he’s doing PR work on that front.

defmn

I would be very surprised if there wasn’t interest in Kassian. The return would not be that high imo. I have floated Boston as a destination to some skepticism from our host here but I would add Buffalo & Philly as potential landing spots should they choose to move him.

Of course moving him means Holland has to immediately find a superior replacement for his role. I keep thinking of how Sutter in Calgary prefers to win through physicality rather than skill.

OriginalPouzar

Of course moving him means Holland has to immediately find a superior replacement for his role. I keep thinking of how Sutter in Calgary prefers to win through physicality rather than skill.

I don’t disagree – of course, the Oilers didn’t find a replacement for that role for the 2021 season – Kassian sure wasn’t playing it.

Disposing of Kass takes away nothing from the team they iced in 2021 as Kassian didn’t provide any positive value – like none, for the entire year.

2019 calendar year Kassian makes the team better but he wasn’t on the team last season.

Paddy Morans Jockstrap

Look I know you don’t know Kass, but overlooking the little issue of him being injured for almost the entire season is a bit much. You make it sound like he was completely healthy and just useless. I remember his first game back after the hand injury (think it was WPG) he rocked a guy and an opposition tough (probably Lowry) invited him to dance. You could see him say “no can do bro, broken hand”.

You trade or lose Kass and you are looking for someone just like him 10 minutes later. This team is already full of lightweights like Kahun, Ennis, Hass, Nygard, Turris, RNH, Archie, Yamo, Barrie, Bear. Only guys off that list I really want back are Archie, Yamo and one of Bear/Barrie. Bigger teams like CGY are already pushing the Oilers around, and getting rid of Kass, Neal, Chaser and JJ leaves us with exactly what in response?

It’s also pretty hard to be loving daddy, then go to work and punch guys in the face for a couple of hours, then go back home and be loving daddy again. It’s easier to stay in that character as a young single guy. These guys aren’t robots. Kass is going to have to sort out how to conjure the crazy on the ice and then put it back in its box after the game. He’s got enough on his plate staying clean and I’ll always cheer for him to make it. Hope he figures it out but I’d be happier if he was a failed tough than a psychotic dad.

OriginalPouzar

With respect, I’m not over-looking the injury – Kass’ game was terrible this season prior to the injury, it was terrible in the play-in last year and it was terrible that last 3 months of last season.

If Kass is traded the team isn’t looking for a Kassian type player, not in the current form, they are looking for a 2019 Kassian type player. The player they’d be looking for hasn’t played for the Oilers since 2019.

I don’t need or want “crazy Kass” – he wasn’t that guy in 2019 when he was generally playing well. I want the Kassian that is an aggressive forechecker, that uses his speed and size to get in and get bangs in and then competes in all areas of the ice, on the defensive boards, getting in shooting lanes, etc.

I have not seen that player for a year and a half save one game.

Paddy Morans Jockstrap

Man you’re better than this. Kass was good in 2018 as you admit. I admit he had a lousy January (1 point in 7 games) but from Feb 1 until the COVID pause in March he had 6 points and was 2.02 P/60. So your argument that he “wasn’t that guy” in 2019 is false. You expect more than 2.02 P/60 during Feb and March?

Seems far more like you just dislike the player and are looking for an excuse, but all you have from the 2019-20 season is one poor stretch of 6 games that season which which you use to characterize an entire calendar year. It’s cherry picking to suit your narrative.

He was junk in the play-in (that was all of 4 games and he had plenty of company) and went through an injury riddled 2021 season. Again this does not prove anything. Do you call Klef garbage because he was poor in the play-in or do you cut him some slack because of injury? Do you shyte on Yamamoto for not scoring at all the last 2 months of the season, not scoring at all in the play-in, only scoring 1 point in this season’s playoffs. Pretty silent on that one too.

Certain people hate Kass, fine, but it doesn’t help your credibility when you make exaggerated claims about performance to fit your narrative, ignore injuries, or treat similar performance by other players differently.

Last edited 3 months ago by Paddy Morans Jockstrap
jp

from Feb 1 until the COVID pause in March he had 6 points and was 2.02 P/60. So your argument that he “wasn’t that guy” in 2019 is false. You expect more than 2.02 P/60 during Feb and March?

I almost posted about this, but didn’t bother.

OP is making progress actually, he used to just give Kassian credit for Oct-Dec 2019. He now acknowledges the entirety of 2019 was good.

Anyway, yes, Kassian wasn’t actually bad from when he signed his extension until Covid hit. He did lose his spot next to McDavid, but he produced well regardless, considering his minutes and linemates (6 points in 15 games, 1.80 P/60 from the extension to lockdown). I was looking earlier, he played mostly in the bottom 6, but he actually had better on ice shot and xGF rates than McDavid himself did (both were -2 at 5v5 in that span).

He was bad in the play-in, and he didn’t do much of anything this regular season. It really wasn’t good, even if you give him a bunch of slack for the injuries. But it’s not a stretch that he could actually be a helpful player going forward. An awful lot of people have written him off, but we’ll see. I’m not *expecting* big things, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets back to being 2019 Kassian either.

OriginalPouzar

I have nothing against Kass and gave him massive props in the first 3 months of 2019/20 stating that he wasn’t just riding McDavid’s coattails but provide an impact on the line and helping the line.

Your summary of my time line is not right.

I don’t say he was terrible in 2019/20. I’ve been saying that he was very good in calendar year 2019 but has been terrible since 2020 – that is down the stretch in 2019/20, in the play-in, in the 2021 regular season and the first two games of the playoffs this year.

The player we saw for the entirety of this past season, and since a bit before he signed his contract, not good, not valuable, not worth anywhere near his contract.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

I think the cap efficiency to be gained elsewhere is too much to ignore.

He merely has to be replaced by a bottom six energy guy who can pot some timely goals here and there on a regularly consistent basis to be an upgrade.

What does that look like? 82-10-10-20 with a positive GF, and some quality minutes on the PK? I’d take that in a heartbeat.

Someone like that should probably cost half as much.

OriginalPouzar

Stauffer was talking today about execs from the East inquiring about Kassian.

There’s hope yet, unless he’s doing PR work on that front.

Stauffer has been talking about eastern teams being interested in Kass for a while now.

Personally, I think there is a difference in (a) interested in the player and (b) interested in the player and his current contract.

If Holland was willing to retain $750K or $1M, I think teams would take on that contract – I don’t think the return would be much though.

godot10

Retaining is not a good idea. Bad contract for bad contract or bad fit should be the plan.

Like Kassian (bad contract) for Zucker (bad fit).

The Oilers gain nothing retaining 50% on Kassian It is better to just let him be the fourtheenth forward.

One should be working the phones day and night to unlock the dead cap space in Kassian and Neal for at least marginally useful players.

It is too easy to just say retain or buyout.

Sierra

Would sure be nice if Kassian was marginally useful.

OriginalPouzar

I wasn’t suggesting they do a retained salary transaction with Kass, just noting my thoughts on what it would take to make the player moveable in a trade.

OriginalPouzar

Bling

I suspect Kassian could be rid of one way or another — expansion draft or through trade.

If there is a trade on the table, we could use the picks and I would prefer to keep Kassian for that. The cap savings alone could pay for Nurse’s next raise, for example, or for Bear’s next contract.

Seattle signing Barrie would be the real boon. I think it has a real chance of happening. If that happens, we keep Jones. Maybe Jones is not the long term answer at LHD (Samorukov, Broberg etc), but what if he has a strong year as a second pairing D?

A cheap young guy who excels at the transition game and can put up offence without seeing a sniff of PP time could command a solid return.

I guess I disagree with you on Kassian and being able to move him without retaining. I can’t see Seattle taking him at 3 X $3.2M nor any team trading for that contract (let alone giving up anything valuable).

That’s why I think he needs to be exposed – I doubt he’s selected straight up but, if he is, fantastic.

I hope I’m wrong on his value (or negative value) and I hope if Holland does protect him it’s because he has a trade worked out (without retaining any cap hit).

jm363561

In case anyone was .. ahem .. wondering:
Wonderance – The process of wondering about something; wonderment.

Darth Tu

The more I look at who’s going to be floating around for the Seattle to pick from, they’re likely to have good goalies and a good-great D corps. Forwards are likely to be quite slim pickings. There is definitely a world where I see Seattle taking Kahun over Caleb Jones – which truth be told would be best case for the Oilers if Oscar is indeed gone.

Harpers Hair

They will likely parlay some of the D they pick into forwards and fill out the top 6 forwards in free agency.

Potential centres:

Ryan Johansen (Nashville retains half and adds a sweetener.)

Nazem Kadri (camp dump for Colorado)

RNH (UFA signing)

Mikael Granlund (UFA signing)

Philip Danault (UFA signing)

Alexander Wennberg (UFA signing)

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Jack Eichel…

Harpers Hair

They won’t have the trade assets Buffalo is looking for and I can’t see Seattle giving up the #2 overall pick.

Darth Tu

Is Eichel worth more than the number 2 pick? I’d say probably yes seeing as it’s meant to be a d heavy top end this year… If I’m Seattle I’d at least make an offer and see if Buffalo accepts.

defmn

If Nashville is willing to retain half on Johansen ( I am dubious) plus a ‘sweetener’ then Holland should be on the phone to Poile imo.

Last edited 3 months ago by defmn
Harpers Hair

Nashville pretty much has to move either Johansen or Duchene if they’re going to improve.

Confused

Qualifying and protecting Kahun over Archie is the way to go. Kahun has some skill set, Archie is useless except on the PK. Buy low on Kahun!

DevilsLettuce

Definitely agree you protect the skill, if Seattle takes Archi just one less grinder Tipps will feel the need to run alongside McDavid. It’s like when Weight had to try and turn Kelly Bucky into a scorer, just make it stop.

OriginalPouzar

How much time did Archie spend with McDavid last season which wasn’t in the last minutes of a game they were protecting the lead?

Woogie63

Nuge to 3C should be a option in 2021

New Scoring winner – McDavid – Kassian
Holloway- Drisaital – Yamamoto
Benson- Nuge – Puljajarvi
JJK-Mcleod- Archibald

Quickly we become a legit 4 line team

winchester

Love it. Maybe Garland as new winger.

dont stop there. Add another versatile two way player to fill in wherever needed. Coleman

defmn

$6 M for a 3C seems difficult to me.

I assume you would notify Nuge of his demotion after he signs for 6-8 years?

Moonlight Overthrow

Pains me to say it, but I’ve realized that moving on from RNH may be the best path forward for the team.

Much has been stated about RNH as a core player, but a flat cap world creates an opportunity to find 2 LW’s on value contracts. It opens up space to add elsewhere.

Holland can potentially replace RNH’s production for less money through UFA signings (Tatar, Granlund, Wennberg, Hoffman), which is unusual. It’s an avenue that needs to be explored.

defmn

I agree with the assessment that Nuge is no longer a core piece but UFA signings are not predictable and it being an expansion year I would say even less predictable than others.

‘A bird in hand’ may not be the best path but is the least risky. We’ll know soon enough I guess. I disagree with Gregor on his assessment of handshake deals though. I think there will be some. Not sure if Nuge would be one of them though.

Moonlight Overthrow

Signing RNH offers the least risk in terms of roster construction for this season, but it’s a much higher risk to sign him long-term that isn’t a value contract.

Perhaps this is one of the few years that offers value contracts via UFA, similar to Barrie last year.

defmn

That would be the gamble. That free agency allows for an upgrade. I see names that are appealing but if you travel the internet to see what bloggers and media guys who cover other teams I see the same names.

I repeat my usual mantra when it comes to this topic.

UFA signings are almost always overpays in money or term or both.

At the top end you can comfortably remove the word ‘almost’.

The one you know then becomes more attractive for a lot of GM’s.

Last edited 3 months ago by defmn
godot10

I don’t think Nugent-Hopkins is signing to be a #3C, when there are many teams where he can be a #1 or #2.

N64

Anyone know if Kraken are entitled to medical reports?

If Oil really believe Klef is not going to come back as Klef or at all, then the protected list is certainly easier. First I’d assume handshake deals and top 6/4 players re-upping after free agency is pretty rare. If Larsson and Nuge re-ups before then Jones gets exposed and while nice for the Kraken even better for the Oil to retain both. 

(The extreme scenario is Klef returns strong after being claimed and Kraken sign Larsson and Nuge after free agency opens.)

defmn

If I’m Seattle, it’s Kahun.

If I’m Seattle I think I have been ripped off for my expansion fee.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Try to differ the pick for a few years.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Quite an upgrade on Griffin Reinhart…

defmn

Unless you include provenance as part of the equation. 😉

BornInAGretzkyJersey

I don’t follow, how does the origin of the equation factor in?

That he was a 4th overall pick?

He was still a failure, and VGK wasted their pick on him. They would have done much better taking another 4th overall pick — Benoit Poulliot — or even JJ than they were taking Reinhart.

defmn

Ah, I was referring to how much Edmonton paid to get him from the Islanders.

Randle McMurphy

Assuming Klefbom is not ready to start 2021-22 opening day.
and
Assuming Klefbom wants to keep his options wide open
and
Assuming Klefbom intends on returning to play sometime between Christmas and the All-Star Break,

Does this mean his $4m Cap space is all but lost to us for 2021-22?

BornInAGretzkyJersey

If he comes back midseason his cap space has to be accounted for.

If Holland uses the LTIR cushion he will have to move out that salary (player) when Klefbom comes back.

It’s not an ideal situation to have to account for midseason.

https://www.capfriendly.com/ltir-faq

OriginalPouzar

Yup, pretty much.

The Oilers can only really use Klef’s LTIR reserves if they know that he’s not being activated at all during the season (like this past season).

If the Oilers use the LTIR reserves and have a cap hit of, say, $85M with Klef on LTIR, if Klef is activated at any point during the season, be it November or April, they need to get up $81.5M for compliance. They are also mandated to activate the player off LTIR if deemed ready (although that is a bit subjective, of course).

DevilsLettuce

Does Bob cover himself in essential oils before he tweets out that the Oilers should put Kassian on the protection list while leaving Benson on the outside?

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

This made me laugh.

Randle McMurphy

How about those Blue Jays. Leading the Majors in Home Runs as a team.

It’s not just Vlady Jr.

Its quickly becoming must see tv.

Elgin R

A true contender if they can get the bullpen fixed. Great to watch and hope they can keep all the good-young guys for a long time.

Randle McMurphy

hit Plus if you’re cheering for Tampa Bay

Randle McMurphy

Hit Minus if you’re cheering for Montreal

Randle McMurphy

Who you cheering for tonight LT?

meanashell11

If Klef is done I will be so sad. One of my all time favorite players.

John Chambers

It’s hard to understand why some folks have all of a sudden become Dominik Kahun supporters.
The area that required the greatest improvement at the trade deadline was #2 LW, a spot Kahun occupied and failed to deliver in throughout the season.
He’s not a speed demon and is the opposite of a physical player, so Tippett can’t use him as part of his bottom-6 deployment.
When I consider next season’s ideal LW depth it would include RNH & someone with a scoring resume for the top-2lines, followed by Benson, Shore, and at some point Holloway.
Kahun has a place on the roster as a change-up or replacement in the event of injury, similar to Ennis’ last season.
In any regard, I would choose Kahun over Jones, Benson, or Archibald as who I’d prefer to surrender to the Kraken.

jp

He’s getting squeezed from above and below.

I like the player alright, but he’s not the ideal solution anywhere on the left side (though he could play any of the slots semi-reasonably IMO).

His arbitration right are a risk too, he’d almost certainly get a raise there based on his scoring over 3 seasons.

I’d be happy to have him back on a deal in the same range as his current one, but I’d guess being picked by the Kraken or traded for a pick are the most likely outcomes.

Randle McMurphy

It often takes players a season to acclimate to their new environment.

Kahun has only played 48 gms as an Oiler.

Given his age (25), his previous NHL record, his cost, and the Oilers current lack of roster depth, he is worth betting on for another season imo.

Last edited 3 months ago by Randle McMurphy
godot10

Arbitration risk is to great to qualify him. The Oilers cannot afford an arbitrator doubling his salary. Leave him unprotected. Don’t give him a QO. If he is still available as a UFA sign him back for one million again.

Randle McMurphy

Valid point.

The qualifying offer itself isn’t a problem. (approx. $1m )

I don’t know the details of arbitration. Is it within the teams rights to negotiate the tender of a qualifying offer that excludes arbitration?

If a qualifying offer is 105 percent of Kahun’s pervious salary ( 975k) so about $1.025m, can the team and player simply negotiate a bigger raise, say to $1.25m and in doing so avoid arbitration?

jp

Agree the arbitration risk is real.

If he were willing to sign around $1M in advance of the draft I wouldn’t mind having him back though.

OriginalPouzar

Filing for arbitration would open up a second buyout window for the Oilers which I think would be fantastic as it would give Holland much more time to determine if a Neal (or Mikko) buyout is needed.

I don’t think the risk of a high award is that great but, the optimal, would be to actually have a deal with Kahun but get the arbitration filing to open up the window and then settle prior to the hearing.

I don’t imagine Holland will be able to pull that off though.

godot10

Protect Skinner over Stalock. Skinner still has a chance to be an NHL starter. The Oilers have invested time in him already. It would be a mistake.to leave him unprotected.

He has a starter’s skillset and attributes. All he has to figure out is mental consistancy and reliability.

Darth Tu

Stauffer suggesting that Skinner is the one to be protected.

Paddy Morans Jockstrap

Of course Skinner will be the one protected (draft +5 this year, making good progress, and got first taste of NHL this season). Why in heaven’s would you risk losing that to protect a 33 year old tweener who hasn’t played in over a year? Pass it on LT – that’s some good stuff you are indulging in 🙂 555

koskidaddy

Some good LD options to target if Klefbom is unavailable:

  • Alec Martinez (UFA): Great two-way defenseman that had a 59.39 GF% and 54.32 xGF% this season. His 2.4 5v5 P/60 would rank 2nd among Oilers defensemen, behind Barrie and ahead of Nurse. Per PuckIQ, Martinez played 17.9% of his TOI against elite competition, which would rank 4th among Vegas defensemen. A downside is that he’s 33 years old, and I imagine the Oilers would prefer someone younger.
  • Jamie Oleksiak (UFA): I would consider him more of a shutdown defensemen, although he shows some flashes of offensive potential. Sported a 54.32 xGF% but only 49.32 GF% due to a 6.06 oiSH% (Dallas’ forwards weren’t the greatest finishers this season). Played 29.3% of his TOI against elites this season, which is 2nd among Dallas defensemen. Oleksiak had a 53.10 CF% against elite competition.
  • Mike Reilly (UFA): Reilly came from nowhere this season, but his results did not change much even when he got traded to the Bruins. He scored 13 5v5 points in 40 games with the Senators, and scored 7 5v5 points in 15 games with the Bruins. Reilly had a 51.25 GF% and a 53.74 xGF% this season. He played a whopping 48% of his TOI against elites when he was on Ottawa, and only 10.6% when he was with Boston.
  • Hampus Lindholm (Trade): Lindholm’s contract is set to expire next summer, and I find it hard that he would re-sign in the dumpster fire that is Anaheim. As a result, the Ducks probably trade him to get some value instead of losing him for nothing. This season, he had a goal share of just 42.6%, but that was on a 96.34 PDO. I think he will bounce back, based on his shot share, Corsi share, and expected goal share all over 50%. Played 28.7% of his TOI against elites
Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

I like this list.

How do the Oilers pry Lindholm and Gibson out of Anaheim?

koskidaddy

Anaheim being a rebuilder, is probably looking for picks and prospects. I’m not sure about the exact details, but I imagine it would take multiple 1sts and maybe Broberg.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Agreed. 2021 1st + 2022 1st + Broberg + Neal + Koski for Gibson + Lindhom.

Oilers probably still have to add value to make it work. I know Gibson has been meh for the past few seasons but he is still young. I imagine he rebounds on a better team.

ArmchairGM

No thanks. It’ll cost an arm and a leg and Gibson hasn’t been elite since 2018.

OriginalPouzar

No thanks. It’ll cost an arm and a leg and Gibson hasn’t been elite since 2018.

Agreed – there is every chance he’ll bounce back on a better team but there is no certainty on that and cap hit alone for a tender that he regressed the last few years is risk enough, let alone material acquisition cost.

Elgin R

Maybe Lindholm really likes playing the ‘Swarm’ and the California high taxes!

godot10

According to you Martinez doe NOT play against elites anymore 17.9% is nothing. It means he was heavily protected against the elites. Unless you posted a typo.

Oleksiak is a 3rd pairing D being zoomed by Heiskanen. A hard NO.

Lindholm would be a fantastic choice, but pricing him in a trade is difficult because he is a UFA next summer. I would try to see if Anaheim and LIndholm were amenable to a sign and trade, and then I would be willing to pay a lot.

Reilly, I haven’t seen enough.

jp

According to you Martinez doe NOT play against elites anymore 17.9% is nothing.

He played in the West Div. According to puckiq there are almost no elite forwards in the West (especially when you exclude his teammates on Vegas).

Likewise Reilly saw 48% elites in the North, which is loaded with’elite’ forwards.

Have a look.

Beyond that, I agree Lindholm would be a fantastic choice.

Last edited 3 months ago by jp
koskidaddy

Yes, Martinez was quite sheltered.

Oleksiak performed better when away from Heiskanen. I don’t think he’s getting carried.

OriginalPouzar

Oleksiak is a 3rd pairing D being zoomed by Heiskanen. A hard NO.

You keep saying this, and I keeping thinking its likely true, but the numbers don’t suggest that is the case at all.

godot10

Oleksiak has a (non) career before Heiskanen. Could barely crack the Dallas lineup. Pittsburgh threw him back to Dallas after a couple of months.

On his own merit, he is a 3rd pairing D. Heiskanen should 25% cut of whatever salary Oleksiak signs for.

OriginalPouzar

I understand that Oleksiak took time to develop, arrive and then pop but that indeed does happen with d-man. Big d-men also often take longer to develop as they grow in to their bodies.

Oleksiak has 1st round pedigree.

I understand why you have your theory but the numbers, this season and last, don’t bear it out.

Scungilli Slushy

I commented a few weeks ago about Martinez. He can score but I’ve seen him make a lot of weak plays his cache and experience says he shouldn’t do.

The Oilers have that covered and really don’t need more offense. They need D that can skate so that they can have a lane to pass and keep up to forwards, and can play the system for 60 minutes every game.

Every players makes an error or gets burned, I’m talking about throwing pucks up the gut to the opponent and others gems. Or those that are glass and out specialists.

Randle McMurphy

Good list.

Whose the best RHD available in Free Agency?

koskidaddy

Dougie Hamilton quite easily

defmn

Easily the best.

Availability is a question.

Randle McMurphy

right. apologies, I meant to say besides Hamilton, whose your top RHD UFA target(s)

koskidaddy

Not too much other than Hamilton. David Savard and Montour would be my top RHD targets

ArmchairGM

Martinez’s age works to his advantage IMO – management will be looking for a veteran top-4 guy who can bridge them to Broberg / Samorukov rather than a long-term solution. Signing Martinez for one or two years at something close to what he’s making now would dovetail perfectly with the prospect development plan.

OriginalPouzar

A week or two ago, Friedman was suggesting he’s going to get term even as his age. He was talking like 4 years X $5M plus.

ArmchairGM

He’s 34 in a month. A 4 year contract would be crazy.

OriginalPouzar

I agree – just noting what Friedman was suggesting.

godot10

Martinez only looks good because of the weak division Vegas was playing in.

fistycuff

I was so excited that the Oilers got Klefbom at #19 in 2011. I wanted this player a lot. Many said he was the steal of the draft at the time. We waited 2 years to see him in North America, and I drove from Edmonton to the young guns tourney in Penticton with a brand new Klefbom jersey in hand hoping to have it autographed. Unfortunately, after my arrival, it was announced that Klefbom wouldn’t play due to a shoulder injury. I was so disappointed that I turned around and drove back home. Klefbom never got over the injury bug. The player was injury plagued since day 1 and as LT said, we are hurting that we never were able to see him reach full potential. I still have that Jersey I bought back then and I never was able to get it autographed. I still hope it is not the end, but if it is, then sail on young man and we wish you well.

Elgin R

I am not completely buying the negative from the ‘unnamed’ sources that Gregor uses. Is this Holland playing the sly-old dog and blowing smoke? Maybe, none of us know for sure. Until Klefbom speaks about this, then I will assume he will be at camp.

Now if this works out and Holland protects Jones, the Kraken take Kahun and Kelfbom returns in good form, then Old Dutch has hit not just a home run but a grand slam.

OriginalPouzar

Don’t disagree….. just switch Kahun for Kassian as the Kraken pick and I’ll be happy.

Come on Holland, don’t over-value what that player once was (and was inconsistent) who, at his peak, may have provided value for $3.2M (in a pre-Covid era).

Unless you KNOW you can trade that contract straight up for an actual return (which I can’t imagine), do not protect Kassian.

Bling

Protect Kahun. Maybe he doesn’t fit into the top 6 next season, but you always need cover for injury and he can be part of the solution with respect to getting the bottom six to a 50% goal share.

Kahun is heading into what should be the most productive seasons of his NHL career. As is, fifteen-ish even strength goals over 82 games is not easily replaceable, particularly at his cap hit. Our own collective view of the player’s offence is warped by his low assist numbers this season. All of Nuge, Kahun, Yamamoto, and Puljujarvi had low EV assist numbers relative to goals this season, so it was a disease that afflicted all top 6 wingers.

Archibald brings little at evens. He is a favourite of Tipp’s, PKs well, hits, and scores a lot of empty net goals. If you need someone to PK, that player can be found via unrestricted free agency or trade.

Empty net dominance:

This past season, Archibald had 13 points in 52 games. 5 (3+2) of those points came against an empty net (38% of his offence).

The season prior, Archibald had 21 points in 62 games. 5 (3+2) of those points came against an empty net (24% of his offence).

5v5, Archibald was a woeful 43% GF this year and 35% (!) last year.

This player type does not need to be protected. In fact, I would argue strongly that it is exactly this player type that needs to be purged from the bottom six if improvement is to be made.

Woogie63

Kahun looked invisible most of last year, and played with a great center. If he is back next year he will be paid a salary low enough to be buried in the minors. He is the exact player the team needs to upgrade to go further in the play offs.

winchester

Archibald has some game to him. He is the only Oiler to take on big Logan Stanley. Kahun would go near Stanley.

Both have value of a sort, but when the going gets tough Archie shows up and that was the missing element on the roster.

Woogie63

I think we are seeing the final moments of the analytics movement as we know it in the NHL. The metrics that we see, as students of the game, have mixed results. If billionaires just had to hire smart people to break the code it would be done by now, do we see any evidence to the contrary…no.

I think the next analytics movement will focus on predicting the outcome of the next shift. Teams have been measuring players heart rates, blood oxygen and many other predictors of the body’s readiness to perform for many years now. Getting that information to coaches in real time so 6 players are ready to play at peak performance is a thing.

Watch for coaches to begin to wear headsets similar to the NFL to get real time information from the press box computer to the coaches. Watch for oxygen to used on the bench. Watch for back up goalies to continue to stretch underneath the stands to better prepare if they need to coming to the game.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

The list of protected forwards really highlights how much work Holland has this offseason.

Archibald and Khaira are not the type of players you need to protect if you are an elite NHL team.

Clarkenstein

You are 100% correct… in fact after the Big Two there isn’t a helluva lot left is there?

OriginalPouzar

This is true but lets not forget, the protected list and the expansion draft comes before the entry draft and free agency when most player procurement and team-building will happen.

Yes, there may be opportunities to buy low on existing contracted players (or existing RFAs) prior to the expansion draft but the real spending is likely to occur post-expansion draft.

I would think (hope) that, if we put together an expansion draft protection list in August, it would look much different.

leeinvan

It would be so oiler’s to protect Klefbom and he doesn’t play another game and lose Jones. I’m assuming that Seattle wants to have at least a half decent team so all these bloggers that think Seattle will take all the horrible contracts and underperforming players is fantasy.

Klefbom is a player who is injury prone and you cannot count on him for a full season, he is another year older and has missed at the very least 1 full season, what kind of player if he does return someday are the Oiler’s getting.

Jordan

Why take Kahun when its a lot clearer that he’s a streaky undersized forward, when you could take Lagesson who could still be cheap top 6 defenseman who could be a top 4 shutdown D?

IMO there’s more upside in the Lagesson selection because of low cost and potential improvement.

Bling

Your description of Kahun is exactly why he should be protected.

godot10

The Oiler have to aim way higher. And they really shouldn’t qualify him because of arbitration risk. An arbitrator might double his salary. The Oilers cannot afford that. Let him become a UFA, and sign him for $1 million again if Seattle doesn’t pick him.

Harpers Hair

Yep.
Seattle will likely follow the Vegas model and accumulate D to use as trade assets.
Far easier to pick up bottom 6 forwards on waivers or as cheap free agent signings,

jp

Lagesson is only 7 months younger than Kahun, and as LT says Kahun has been able to deliver offense at the NHL level.

rocket

Or Seattle may take RNH or Larsson…

Elgin R

They may TRY to sign them, but hope that Holland has a hand shake deal with both to announce the signing 1-minute after the Kraken take someone (?) from the Oilers bottom 6.

Last edited 3 months ago by Elgin R
OriginalPouzar

For what its worth, Gregor says there is almost no chance the Oilers are doing that – if they come to an agreement with either Larsson or Nuge, they will sign it at the time.

They don’t want to risk Seattle scooping.

OriginalPouzar

rocket

 Reply to Jordan

 June 28, 2021 9:02 am

Or Seattle may take RNH or Larsson…

Tyson Barrie – please and thank.

Sign him Ron, just do it.

Randle McMurphy

You spelled Ken wrong.

OriginalPouzar

Ugh, sure didn’t.

The team will lose an element without Barrie but I think the money can be best spent elsewhere and the issue with Barrie is the need to play with Nurse or else he gets caved – that’s a problem.

defmn

Barrie does not need to play with Nurse or he gets caved. He needs to play with a physical defensive partner who can handle at least 2nd pair minutes so Barrie can optimize his offensive talents.

The fact that the Oilers didn’t have such a player last season is what made Nurse the the only reasonable answer.

There is a distinction in there that makes a difference going forward should Barrie be signed in Edmonton.

OriginalPouzar

OK, fine, on the Oilers next season, Barrie needs to play with Nurse or else he will get caved (based on 2021 results).

Maybe an Oleksiak (as you describe) is what he needs or maybe it is a legit elite skating 1D that he needs (as he had this year).

Either way his deployment needs to be managed to too great an extent for $5MM of cap hit, in my opinion.

Randle McMurphy

$4.75m ?

Randle McMurphy

The problem I see with Barrie is that if he takes the McDavid discount, he’s going to want an NMC.

defmn

And I understand that. Of course Larsson has to be managed in the same way in that he kills offence for top 6 forwards. Maybe $4 M makes that more palatable.

I am not trying to be difficult. I just think that in making these judgement calls it is important to have all the data that is available clearly stated.

If Larsson and Barrie did not play the same side would they make a good pair? I think they might while individually they both have unbalanced skill sets.

As I mentioned in a response to HH the other day I think coaches tend to view dmen in terms of pairs in addition to assessing them individually. When you find a dman that is as good as Barrie is offensively and Larsson is defensively you are usually talking about the $8M range for a UFA while you can pair them for similar money.

I think all of these considerations are worth clarifying.

It is not that Barrie has to play with Nurse. It is that if the Oilers are keeping Barrie they have to find a defensively oriented LD that can handle 2nd pairing.

Last edited 3 months ago by defmn
Randle McMurphy

Yes!

Martinez Barrie

jp

Barrie does not need to play with Nurse or he gets caved. He needs to play with a physical defensive partner who can handle at least 2nd pair minutes so Barrie can optimize his offensive talents.

I’ve posted before about Barrie’s generally good on ice results over his career.

He’s been a positive GF% in 6 of his 8 full seasons (Avs last overall 14-15 and -2 in Toronto 19-20 being the exceptions). He’s also been a positive GF% relative to team in 7 of 8 years (Toronto being the only exception)

Before playing with Nurse last season, his most common partners in Toronto were Muzzin, Reilly and Dermott (pretty similar TOI with each).

His last season in Colorado it was Ian Cole, and the 3 years previous his partners (in order) were Holden, Zadarov, Tyutin and Beauchemin.

You’re totally right he doesn’t need Nurse as a partner, just someone solid.

If he does re-sign, hopefully the Oilers can add or develop that player over the summer.

defmn

There is going to be a lot of turnover on defence the next two years imo.

Samorukov, Broberg & Bouchard will all be regular dmen. Nurse & Larsson as the vets. I think Jones & Bear end up as place holders who get traded as Holland prepares this team for contender status.

Last edited 3 months ago by defmn
jp

Yeah there will definitely be a lot of turnover.

They’re looking good, but we’ll see if all 3 young guys make it, and at what level. I wouldn’t be shocked to see one of them moved in the name of a more veteran lineup (not that I’m expecting it at all).

You could well be right about Bear and Jones, I don’t have a hard time seeing Bear stick around though.

Should (hopefully!) be fun to see it all play out.

Last edited 3 months ago by jp
Randle McMurphy

and we know all this from 48 gms in a new enviroment. Thats a fairly small sample size.

Randle McMurphy

And performing below average with the likes of Kulikov, Koekkoek, Jones, Lagesson, Russell, is somewhat to be expected.