One day many years ago I was in a big book store in Calgary. I love books, specifically about sports, and there were a few I would check out whenever there was a chance. One day, I bought a book called “Dollar Sign on the Muscle (it is here) based on the cover and it was love at first sight. You rarely found, in those days, something that spoke directly to you. The Hockey News July issue, Baseball America’s Top Expos Prospects issue, the Gare Joyce book, there aren’t many.
I’ve always been fascinated by scouting and identifying talent and the magic of projecting hockey and baseball players miles into the future. I’ve spent far too much time attempting to create a model for evaluating scouting staffs, epic failures all. That brings us here.
THE ATHLETIC!
I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here’s the latest!
- New Lowetide: What is a reasonable trade price for Oilers to pay for Duncan Keith?
- Lowetide: Will the Oilers draft from the OHL after a season that never happened?
- DNB: Oilers are interested in trading for Blackhawks defenceman Duncan Keith — at a price
- Lowetide: Finding the ideal No. 3 centre for the Edmonton Oilers
- New DNB: What I’m hearing about the Oilers offseason
- Lowetide: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins’ future value to the Oilers will be defined by his adaptability
- DNB: Oilers’ Connor McDavid wants ‘more consistency’ with NHL playoff officiating
- DNB: How re-signing Ryan Nugent-Hopkins for eight years could help and hurt the Oilers
- Lowetide: Can the Oilers’ next wave of prospects help them win a playoff series in 2022?
- DNB: Five offseason scenarios that could upend the Oilers’ best-laid plans
- onathan Willis: How underappreciated Oilers defenceman Jeff Petry became a Canadiens mainstay
- Lowetide: Will the Oilers return to the WHL prospect pool in the 2021 draft?
- Lowetide: Why Oilers defenceman Evan Bouchard is poised to exceed expectations
- Lowetide: Oilers’ prospect pipeline could be at stake as AHL coach Jay Woodcroft outgrows his minor-league role
- DNB and Dom: How the Oilers should value pending UFAs
- Jonathan Willis: How the Oilers could make a Jack Eichel-level trade happen this offseason
- Lowetide: The 7 Oilers roster spots GM Ken Holland must improve this offseason
- Lowetide: Caleb Jones, Oilers reach crossroads that could land Jones in Seattle
- Lowetide: What will Oilers do if they must replace Oscar Klefbom?
- Jonathan Willis: What comes next for the Oilers’ Jesse Puljujarvi?
- Lowetide: Why Evan Bouchard, Ryan McLeod and more prospects are options for Oilers in 2021-22
- DNB: Ten teams the Oilers should be targeting for trades ahead of the Kraken expansion draft
- Lowetide: How Ken Holland’s transaction history could foreshadow the Oilers summer to come
- Lowetide: How close to NHL-ready is Oilers prospect Dmitri Samorukov?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ reasonable expectations eat dust during Connor McDavid’s dream season
- Jonathan Willis: Why some of the most popular moves Ken Holland could make would be mistakes
- Lowetide: Why huge Oil Kings goalie Sebastian Cossa could be the perfect first-round fit for the Oilers
EVALUATING A SCOUTING STAFF
I think you have to evaluate a team’s scouting staff by year, taking into account the strength of the individual drafts and a team’s specific picks. An early selection should have more expectations than a later one, and anything after No. 96 (now that there are 32 teams) that emerges is pure gold.
So, the 2015 draft is six years gone and we have it surrounded. If your team picked inside the top-4 overall and didn’t get an impact player, you cheer for the Arizona Coyotes. That kind of thing.
So, using the Pacific Division, can we weight the picks based on the quality of the draft, set individual team expectations, and give a grade? Without bias? Well let’s see.
ANAHEIM DUCKS
The Ducks picked Nos. 27, 59, 80, 84, 148, 178 and 179. The 2015 draft was enormous, so it’s reasonable to expect the first pick to cash, and I think one of the next three to also deliver. That’s two NHL players, and I think one of them should be filling a feature (top two lines, No. 3 center, top four blue or starting goalie) role.
The NHL players are: Jacob Larsson (top-six NHL defender); Troy Terry (top-nine NHL forward).
I’d say the Ducks covered the ‘two NHL players’ bet but are shy on where they slot in the lineup. Things change, as we’ll see throughout this look at the Pacific Division, but as of now Anaheim’s scouts are down. Not a failure, but the dealer is winning.
ARIZONA COYOTES
The Coyotes are hockey’s wayward wind, and the 2015 draft’s dullards. Arizona picked Nos. 3, 30, 32, 63, 76, 81, 83, 123, 183. Expectations should be one impact player, two additional NHL players (there are seven top-100 selections here). Two of the three men (including the impact player) need to be in a feature role.
The NHL players are: Conor Garland (top-six NHL forward); Dylan Strome (top-six NHL forward); Christian Fischer (top-nine NHL forward); Adin Hill (backup goalie) and fringe players Nick Merkley and Kyle Capobianco.
It’s fair to write FAIL in big red letters across any draft that sees team draft No. 3 overall in the deepest pool in a generation and gets it wrong. So that’s what we’ll do. Now that the grade is established, I like the work later on, specifically Garland. Arizona did deliver three NHL players (four if we include Hill), but they needed Strome to be Marner, didn’t happen.
CALGARY FLAMES
The Flames traded much of the 2015 draft, and chose Nos. 53, 60, 136, 166 and 196. In a normal year, Scott Cullen would tell you 53 and 60 would be a success with between 50 and 200 NHL games, but with 2015 being a stronger year, let’s say two NHL players (200+ games), one of whom spends some time in a feature role.
The NHL players are: Andrew Mangiapane (top-six NHL forward); Rasmus Andersson (top-four NHL defenseman) and fringe NHL player Oliver Kylington.
Two feature role players and both Mangiapane and Andersson have at times looked like more than that during their early NHL careers. Kylington didn’t play much this season so gets a lower grade but he looks like he’ll have a career.
EDMONTON OILERS
Like Calgary, the Oilers dealt most of its draft. However, the club held on to Nos. 1, 117, 124, 154, 208 and 209 overall. The expectation is simple: An impact player at No. 1 overall. Anything after the first three rounds is golden.
The NHL players are: Connor McDavid (best NHL player); Ethan Bear (top-four NHL defenseman); Caleb Jones (top-six NHL defenseman); John Marino (top-six NHL defenseman).
The great fortune to win the lottery is an epic, one in a lifetime thing. Three NHL defensemen followed beginning in the fourth round. The Oilers’ scouts had a giant piece of that historic weekend carved away and still delivered gems.
LOS ANGELES KINGS
The LAK dealt its first round pick, giving a different feel to the draft. Selections 43, 74, 99, 134, 187 and 194 belongs to the Kings in 2015. Expectations? It’s kind of a middle ground area, but I’ll say one NHL player, playing a feature role, plus an additional fringe player.
The picks are: Erik Cernak (top-four NHL defenseman); Matt Roy (top-four NHL defenseman); Austin Wagner (NHL regular).
Kings did well. Management dealt Cernak, but the scouts get a strong grade for delivering a top flight player. Roy has emerged as a useful NHL defenseman who can play some big minutes. A good draft.
SAN JOSE SHARKS
The Sharks did opposite Edmonton and loaded up on selections, landing with nine in total. However, only three came in the first three rounds. San Jose picked Nos. 9, 31, 86, 106, 130, 142, 160, 190 and 193 overall. That should mean two NHL players, including one in a feature role.
The picks are: Timo Meier (top line NHL player in feature role); Rudolfs Balcers (top-nine NHL player).
The Sharks covered the bet, bringing in one major piece and then another who will have a career (I like Balcers game). Although nine picks sounds like a lot, the club had just three in the first three rounds.
VANCOUVER CANUCKS
The Canucks have had a tough time since 1970 stringing strong draft crops together. The three SC finals teams featured some drafted players and plenty of trades and free agency. Vancouver’s picks were Nos. 23, 66, 114, 144, 149, 174 and 210. Expectations should be two NHL players, including a top-six regular.
The NHL players are: Brock Boeser (top line NHL player); Adam Gaudette (NHL regular); Guillaume Brisebois (fringe NHL player).
Canucks get a strong grade because the club drafted a top-10 overall (or close) talent at No. 23 overall. Gaudette is also an NHL player, so Vancouver gets one of the best grades in the division for the 2015 draft.
FINAL GRADES
- Edmonton Oilers: A
- Calgary Flames: A
- Vancouver Canucks: A
- San Jose Sharks: B
- Los Angeles Kings: B
- Anahem Ducks: D
- Arizona Coyotes: F
THE DAYS AHEAD
The signings of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Devin Shore represent about nine percent of Edmonton’s 2021-22 roster. It’s important to remember that many of the players who are signed and under contract (James Neal, Caleb Jones, Mikko Koskinen, Zack Kassian, Kyle Turris) could be leaving town in the coming weeks. There are 32 signed players, and another eight RFA’s Ken Holland will have to make the call in.
These are big numbers: Five possible exits from the NHL roster (above), eight RFA’s (below), some of whom (Skinner, Yamamoto, Khaira, Benson) seem likely to return.
The Keith rumours tell me that Holland will use free agency for the more important spots on the roster (No. 3 center, McDavid’s LW, No. 1 goalie). We appear to be on the verge of a significant trade, one that will use the Klefbom cap dollars to replace him.
After that? It’s some combination of Zach Hyman, Tomas Tatar, Mike Hoffman, Blake Coleman, Mike Smith, Chris Driedger, Travis Zajac, Derek Ryan, Barclay Goodrow, Ryan Getzlaf.
Curios? Why hasn’t Adam Larsson signed yet?
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
We’re back, baby! At 10 this morning, TSN1260. We’ll hit the ground running with SCF, Oilers news and CFL training camp buzz. At 10:20, Daniel Nugent-Bowman from The Athletic will join me to discuss the Oilers moves to come, and where he thinks this roster is headed. If you have specific questions, please leave them in the comments section. At 11, Jason Gregor from TSN1260 will pop in and talk about the Jays, the Oilers and what we can learn from the Stanley Cup Final. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
Anybody else notice Price when the game ended? After Anderson scores, his teammates and the fans go crazy while he nonchalantly grabs his water bottle and skates off like nothing happened. Man, goalies can be a different breed sometimes. Fuhrsie had a similar attitude.
Anderson just made his owners a few extra bucks.
Actually, probably cost them a few bucks – flight to TB, accommodations, etc.
Sport is funny sometimes – i don’t think he played very well through this game but, of course, scored 2 goals so he ended up having a good game without playing well.
Likely more than a few.
Additional merchandise sales, additional Molson products consumed and a cut of increased TV revenue all go in the pot for the owner.
What a rush and goal by Josh Anderson (well, the goal on its own was just a bang in but the rush)…..
Part of me wants this over tonight – sets get on with the clock running on the QO deadline, etc.
On the other hand, part of me wants Tampa to win at home – I know they are an evil villain with the bloated cap, etc. but they did get screwed last year with no fans there and no family on the ice, etc.
Something that I just love, seeing a tying goal by the Big Rig in a game with the Cup on the line.
Tyler Toffoli unable to get the puck deep and it ends up in his net – not sure why I that heartens me, but for some reason it does.
How about that Patty Maroon and the Bolts 4th line!
I talk about sticks
Coleman knocks the airborne puck out of the air down to ice in front of him and passes quickly, goal
The Oilers need way more of that
As opposed to lumbering skaters that handle pucks like AHL long timers
Successful NHL skating isn’t about top speed, it’s first step and start stops
Mr Bear take note of pivits and the above
Long list unless Holland gets his mojo, desire to maximize, and pitch going
Re the Keith situation, I haven’t seen a solution along the following lines…
Chicago wants 2 things from a Keith disposition; in order of importance, Cap space and Caleb Jones.
Edmonton would like to have Keith at a reasonable price without damage to their own Cap space.
Keith wants to join a club in Seattle, B.C., or Alberta.
Chicago trades their 2021 2nd + Keith’s entire contract to an intermediary (e.g. Arizona, Detroit) which buys out his contract (4 x $600,000).
Keith signs a new reasonable contract with Edmonton for, say, 2 x $2 million.
For consideration, Edmonton sends Jones to Chicago and (only if necessary) a secondary asset like Marody or a late round 2022 pick to the intermediary. Either Chicago or the intermediary takes on the remainder of the Turris contract (approx. $550,000 not buryable).
Keith benefits financially because he is owed only $3.6 million on his current deal whereas he would receive $2.4 from the buyout plus $4 from the Oilers.
i think the biggest hurdle is finding a team to take on 4 years of a Keith buyout
The actual dollars you quote is accurate($600k) but the cap hit in the first 2 years is a real bear
-$4M
-$4.6M
-$600k
-$600k
The cap hit on a Keith buyout is:
$4M
$4.8M
$600K
$600K
Yes, I know. Thus the need for a team with underutilized Cap space willing to take on the Cap with low dollar cost buyout. Arizona, for instance, has no 1st or 3rd round pick this year, has 2 early 2nd rounders, and might be willing to jump at a 3rd early 2nd as appropriate compensation. It might take more than a 2nd, but you have to start somewhere. Surely better than the Oilers taking on 75% of Keith’s Cap, as has been floated by Stauffer.
Fair enough but, in reality, I don’t think there are many teams with a ton of space to do this. ARI could use the picks but they’ve got $50M committed to 12 signed players – they don’t have oodles of cap space.
Detroit would be one of the few teams that could be interested – $48M in cap space (but with only 10 players signed).
You made me dig a little bit for this Ronnie…LoL
Chicago would be subject to cap recapture penalties if he is bought out. We’ve discussed this scenario if Keith retires, but it also applies if he is bought out
I doubt Chicago agrees to this scenario
3.The only early termination of a contract that will not trigger the CARP is by death of the player.
scroll to the bottom under ‘closing notes’
https://slappersandstats.com/2016/02/09/the-cap-advantage-recapture-penalty-what-it-is-and-why-it-matters/
*edit-I think the CARP penalty applies to only the last year
Well, damn it. So much for that idea.
Thank you for the effort of digging that up. Much appreciated despite it being bad news.
Holland says”what?”
Hey LT,
Were you at the Chapters in Spectrum Shopping Centre (wasn’t always named that)?
When? 🙂 I bought the book on the Boardwalk somewhere, my wife liked the export store there and there were some books sold there. I think my first Bill James book was also purchased there.
It has become crystal clear that the Oilers management feel the reason they have been an easy out in playoffs is due to the lack of an experienced, talented veteran leader.
There is some truth here. This goes way back to expecting Hall to be “the guy” when the young man did not have anyone to watch and emulate.
They brought Lucic in – he mentioned “young captain” as in young leadership upon his exit. Did he not even realize his supposed role?
multiple references (years back) about youngsters doing what they wanted.
Pursuit of OEL last year and leadership
The importance of keeping Mike Smith this year is all about leadership
They honestly believe they need this particular player and here we are at Kieth. Yes he can play but even cost aside, what is his motivation?
He is leaving his first love Chicago to play closer to his kids. Where is the highly motivated player on a team he has no loyalty to? Kieth has shifted down a gear to family, hockey is coming to a close. He will be paid very little in the big scheme.
I think he would do great in the playoffs but 82 games would be a grind mentally.
Also, most great leaders emerge when they go through trials with their mates. Jumping to another team changes everything, the relationships, the dynamics.
The respect you built by being the best is only there for a while when you switch mates and are playing third pair. It quickly erodes.
So yes, the Oil could use some leadership. But it can’t be bought. It has to grow.
The best thing they could do is bring in more core talent to surround the present leaders. Help them, give them confidence, grow them.
If we could turn Wasted cap (Neal) into Kieth I’m all for it.
Im just pointing out another risk. Besides actual play and motivation, there is no gaurentee that the leadership comes over with Kieth.
In addition, I’m not really buying the “Kieth asked out” as if this was out of the blue.
This is asset management. I’m sure there were talks. Kieth can see the way the wind is blowing, they need to rebuild. They want a new number one dman and you are in the way.
So sure, based on the environmental developing he asks out. Do what’s best for the team. Chicago sails on with a new number one dman on board.
Again, maybe he can help, but “all the things he brings to Edmonton” may not be as much as they hoped.
He just recently went through a divorce and wants to be close to his son in Penticton.
Nothing out of the blue involved.
It’s obvious some people have never heard of Tammy Wynette greatest hits.
That’s the story, simple as that.
Why not retire then and move to Kelowna? Need more millions?
Its never as as simple as that.
We didn’t pursue OEL last year though
I before E except after K
Weird!
See, I disagree with your take about him switching teams and having no leadership impact or motivation.
I know for a fact having been switched from one crew or jobsite to another that it’s actually sometimes easier to just get down to brass tacks and do what you do best. There are no distractions and you are well aware that people are paying close attention. So there is acute internal motivation to be seen in the best possible light by those with whom you’re trying to forge a strong relationship. Your teammates and supervision.
As a hockey related example, you mention that Smith is a strong voice in the room. So is Chiasson, and I believe I have heard the same about Neal (although likely to a lesser extent). They didn’t take a long time to get into the room and start speaking up, that’s not what veteran leadership does. They see something, they own it, just comes with the territory.
As for his motivation, as an elite player of his era I’m sure you don’t have to convince him too much to get up for work in the morning. He’s an alpha for a reason.
This is true…..but not always true.
There are just as many examples of people floating from one crew to the next. Riding their previous reputation.
End of career, minimal dollars to earn, not hungry, retirement secured, worried about my kid, do I really need to prove myself?
Now I say this unrelated to Keith. I’m generalizing
You bring up Chiasson, Neil, I do believe they would speak up as good vets, but I also believe as their skills diminish so does their presence in the room.
I don’t know Keith, this leadership he will bring is really speculation isn’t it? We assume. At times I like to present some opposing speculation. I was suggesting a different type of risk. We are focused on skills transferring, and I suggested perhaps his leadership , if that’s what they are paying for, also may not transfer as hoped.
Ad far as getting up in the morning, there comes a day for everybody.?
Some of Keith’s defensive Rel stats from this year – all at 5v5 among CHI’s top-7 defensemen by TOI (“+” is bad, “-” is good):
CA/60: +8.10 (7th)
FA/60: +9.02 (7th)
SA/60: +6.98 (6th)
GA/60: +0.53 (5th)
xGA/60: +0.66 (6th)
SCA/60: +3.44 (7th)
HDCA/60: +3.06 (6th)
On-Ice SV%: .9168 (4th)
O-Z faceoffs/60: 19.23 (2nd)
D-Z faceoffs/60: 18.59 (4th)
So he’s not getting hung out to dry by poor goaltending and he’s not getting buried in defensive zone starts. He must be facing the toughs a lot then, right? Well, the Central was really weak and Murphy-Zadorov took most of the Elite comp (via puckiq.com) and D-zone faceoffs (via NST) and both guys ended with better defensive numbers than Keith, so that isn’t it either. Keith faced Elite’s just 22% of his TOI and during those minutes his CA/60 and DFA/60 ranked 6th among seven regulars.
This guy is 38 years old next week and has two years left on his $5.54M deal. I can’t believe “smart hockey men” are advocating acquiring this player at all, let alone sending assets out to get him!
Three things:
1) Keith’s ‘for’ metrics are much better than this. As are his % for/against numbers, which were all middle of the pack on the Hawks this year.
2) His partners have been mentioned a bit.
Here are Keith’s 5v5 minutes, GF%, xGF% and %TOI vs elites from PuckIQ:
Keith 929min 43.5%GF 41.9%xGF 22.0%vElites
Here are the same numbers for his partners (their TOI with him, and overall results in the other categories)
Mitchell 275min 39.0%GF 41.4%xGF 21.1%vElites
Boqvist 221min 47.5%GF 46.8%xGF 15.1%vElites
Murphy 178min 47.2%GF 47.1%xGF 25.6%vElites
Kalynuk 85min 38.2%GF 36.1%xGF 19.4%vElites
Zadarov-Murphy took more of the elite comp, but not by a lot. And 3 of Keith’s 4 partners saw weaker comp then he did. Presumably all of them were playing 2nd pair with him and 3rd pair without. 2 of the 4 also had worse results than Keith overall, despite less time vs stronger competition.
3) Probably none of these numbers mean anything anyway. Georgexs has told us (shown us) that these results aren’t predictive and don’t carry over year to year. Witness Keith’s GF%rel year over year: +2.8, -12.4, +11.0. -7.6, -0.2.
Anyway, I don’t know what Keith has left, but I also have a tough time with how strong the conclusions are on Keith, and how strong the condemnation is of the ‘smart hockey men’ who are contemplating this move.
I thought Georgexs had said corsi was the most predictive year-over-year?
Regardless, the stats still tell a story of this year’s results. He graded out poorly on a number of defensive metrics.
The picture they paint of Keith… If he’s the answer, what question are you asking?
Can a failed #1d in decline play for two more years on your second pairing?
The challenge with year-over-year correlations as Georgexs noted is that coaches and manager can think.
Really poor outliers disappear from the NHL. Players leave their prime and decline in ability…
Coaches and managers try to identify and fix problems by bringing in new players and correctly slotting players to their ability.
Second pair on the Oilers are challenging minutes.
They don’t get the McDavid lift.
If the Oilers sign Adam Larsson, he has to play on your second pair–both out of necessity and his future contract cost.
Now, Larsson suppresses offense while bolstering defense, so you don’t want him on the ice with 97.
This is what we see.
In fact, the Larsson minutes are very interesting.
They are mostly without 29 and 97.
They are even mostly without Nuge.
So the Larsson minutes are playing with lines 3 and 4. These are what you want to be quiet minutes.
Given Keith’s suboptimal defensive metrics, he doesn’t appear to be the ideal candidate to play the Larsson minutes with Larsson.
He seems to do better with puck mover d rather than people mover d.
So you would rather have Kulikov or Oleksiak?
Who are the better left D assuming a Keith overpay?
Easier said than done despite what media (Willis) have stated.
2 X $1.8M vs. 4 X $4.25M, give or take, right?
Sammy likely ready for the 3LD at some point this year – how fast until he’s ready for 2LD (if ever).
Broberg likely ready for 3LD next season – how fast until he’s ready for 2LD?
We know Nurse will be locking into term, does it makes sense to lock in an external acquisition behind him for term?
Not to mention, a possible Klefbom return at some point – possible.
Yes, I believe you’re right that Georgexs said corsi was the most predictive (is that relevant to this discussion, since you mentioned it?).
In terms of role changes being the issue with year over year correlations, well I agree they’re part of the story. I don’t think they’re the main part, personally. It’s a neat explanation, but it never really sat well with me. I’d assumed most of the (lack of) correlation was randomness. Also, TOI should correlate with role changes, shouldn’t it? Yet TOI is the most consistent measure of a defenseman that Georgexs has found.
I hadn’t thought of it before now, but is that aspect of the argument fundamentally flawed? Getting moved to a reduced role due to poor performance almost has to result in reduced TOI (as Georgexs has argued happened with Bear). The fact TOI generally remains consistent while the other stuff jumps around is likely an argument that randomness is the main cause of the lack of correlation rather than coach/manager changing roles and mitigating damage.
Anyway, to the question: Can a failed #1d in decline play for two more years on your second pairing?
First, as I said to ArmchairGM, I really think how badly Keith has failed in that role is being exaggerated. Clearly he’s in decline, but he wasn’t that bad relative to team.
The Larsson minutes are interesting. It’s only since Tippett took over that they’ve been anything close to that skewed away from McDavid. Maybe that’s a good observation by the coach? Clearly this year Nurse-Barrie were involved in team offense in a way that hasn’t been seen in Edmonton in decades (I’ve never seen it, I assume something similar was going on in the 80s).
FWIW, Larsson also hasn’t suppressed offense for McDavid nearly to this extent before this season. I do wonder whether the cast of failed 2nd pair defensemen he partnered with played some role.
I’m looking at Larsson’s minutes with and without McDavid/Draisaitl/Nuge, so I might as well post them.
20-21 8:11 with, 8:30 without (definitely still a slant to 3/4th line)
19-20 9:45 with, 7:38 without
Above is Tippett, below is Hitch/TMac
18-19 13:04 with, 5:39 without
17-18 12:26 with, 6:27 without
A definite drop with Tippett, and also a change year over year. I’d guess with a better partner Larsson should see some more of those ‘top 6’ minutes again.
That said, I can see where you’re coming from in wondering if Keith can play the 2LD role next to Larsson. I would argue it’s a bit of a reduced role from what he was seeing in Chicago (reduced minutes at the very least). Plus he (and Larsson) would both have a steadier partner that either had this past season (at least in theory).
In terms of puck/people mover, potentially Keith would benefit from the former, not sure what his WOWYs with these player types look like over more years. Maybe the pairings switch to Keith-Bouchard (as others have suggested) if Keith-Larsson doesn’t work.
I think it’s clear though that Larsson should benefit from a puck mover. I haven’t had a chance to read the Sportlogic article yet, but it sounds like Keith still has some abilities there. I was a bit surprised to also see that despite his boxcars dropping off badly this season, his 5v5 primary point rates, as well as his shot and iCF rates really haven’t moved at all.
So, can a failed #1d in decline play for two more years on your second pairing? Well nobody knows for sure. But yes, I do think so.
Though I sure hope he’s not being paid a full $5.5M to do it (I don’t think he will be).
What the numbers show is that Keith, at 37, played 2nd pairing this year in a very weak division and still got fed. If you’re betting on him to anchor a 2nd pairing next year and the year after you’re in for a world of hurt.
He could rebound, but it’s a poor bet. From where I sit it looks like he’s an offensive (sheltered) 3rd pairing guy and at $5.4M, that’s untenable. Even if the deal was Neal-for-Keith straight up, the Oilers would very likely be better off buying Neal out and spending the $3.8M savings on a better defenseman than Keith.
Assuming Klefbom isn’t ready until the turn of the calendar (best case scenario), for me, I take Keith for Neal straight up. Of course, he is far from the ideal stop-gap but he would provide more value in the line that Neal (well, i think he would).
Avoiding the buyout would be aces.
I could dream of Keith retiring after 2021/22, not only relieving the Oilers of the $5.5M cap hit but creating an additional cap benefit of $3.8M on the recapture.
This is *exactly* what I meant about making overly strong conclusions using some of the data.
I know you’re not Ricki, but you seem to be basing your assessment entirely on ‘against’ metrics (at least the numbers you’re providing to back it up are that). It’s what you create minus what you give up, right?
As I mentioned, Keith was at or near the top of all the ‘for’ metrics for Chicago, and he ranks 4th on the team (ie – average of 7 D) in 5 of the 7 % metrics (he’s also 5th in a couple).
He also played 40% (39%) of his minutes with one of two rookies, who both ranked below him in every single % metric. If you remove his minutes with those two, he becomes positive relative to team in CF%, FF%, SF% and SCF% (remaining negative, but less so, in GF%, xGF% and HDCF%).
I don’t know what you mean by anchor, but expecting to hold his own on an Oilers 2nd pair with an NHL defenseman as his partner doesn’t seem at all unlikely to me. Like not even a bit, IMO.
By the way, I don’t know what evidence there is that the Central was a weak division. Based on last season’s performance the teams that make up the Central were almost identical to the North Division. That is, average for the league. The East was strong, the West was weak. Central and North were ‘normal’.
Try puckiq.com for divisional strength of forwards.
Keith was bumped down the depth chart by Nikita Zadorov this year. I rest my case.
According to puckiq, Kane played only 19% of his time against elites. I guess Kane, who spent more of his time on ice at 5 on 5 with Keith than any other defenseman, was also just a 3rd line forward. Puckiq has some use but being definitive on who is top line and who is not one of them. Woodmoney can state his opinion on what his data tells him about players, but I’ll rely on how the coach uses the player to determine who he thinks are his first pair D.
Keith played more ice time at evens, power play and penalty kill than any other D on the team last year and more per game in all 3 disciplines than any left D and was generally on the ice with the Hawks best forwards. He didn’t have a good season, but he was the coaches number one left D and what the coach’s opinion on that is not debatable.
Redbird seems to have your two zingers covered.
If you go off PuckIQ numbers only, the North is the strongest division. I don’t think anyone has ever argued that.
And yeah, Keith played more TOI than Zadarov at EV, and on the PK and PP.
You seem rather happy with your cas though, so carry on.
The stats said last year we had 9 top 6 scoring forwards. What happened?
Are you expecting me to solve all of Edmonton’s problems in one post?
This is bullshit on the premise that (+) should mean good and (-) should mean bad.
Is it illegal for Brad Treliving to buy luxury condos in downtown Calgary for Duncan Keith’s kids?
Can we start a go-fund-me ?
But seriously, if Chicago LOVES Duncan Keith so much, and they’re only considering moving him as a favour to the player,
Then why not a trade with someone like Calgary for Giordano?
Apples for Apples sort of thing?
The fancies favor GIordano quite heavily.
I’m not one that usually brings up non-hockey things on this platform but, wow, what a day for Canadian Tennis – Felix and Dennis – congrats to both.
Just wonderful. Both great young talents. Felix knocking off Zverev was impressive.
Yes, they both look mentally stronger, more mature. Hope one of them can pull it off.
Indeed. Canadian tennis has never been in better shape.
Andreescu (Pre-Wimbledon Rank 7, Age 21)
Shapovalov (12,22)
Auger-Aliassime (19,20)
Raonic (22,30)
https://youtu.be/wUaMzsNKR7Q
Bob Stauffer really pumping the tires on Duncan Keith today.
Even to the point of Edmonton actually giving up assets ( Jones an/or + a prospect) to get Keith
Ouch!
That’s not how you do it
Chicago aren’t exactly flush in goal. Surely Koskinen does it? Maybe an exchange of picks in the later rounds?
Why are all the talking heads pumping for Keith? Bob’s guests are all salivating at Oilers getting him….why???
Stockholm Syndrome
To the extent there is any actual value going back (Jones alone, let alone Jones plus another player/prosect), there needs to be equal value coming back to the Oilers (we are talking Strome, etc.) in addition to equalling the cap out in the deal (i.e. Neal or Kassian and/or retention).
There is no way that legit assets can be going on for Keith – he has negative trade value with his contract.
“he has negative trade value with his contract”
Not according to Bpb Stauffer.
I missed Oilers Now today – were they seriously talking it up as Jones going back as part of the trade? I get trying to move him if we think Seattle will take him for free (heck I took him in the expansion draft sim last time I ran it), but if it’s Jones plus another player/prospect for Keith that’s rough. I’d have hoped we could get another prospect for Jones if we were dealing him.
On the Keith trade in general – I’d like to set my sights higher, however, for injury cover till the playoffs when Klefbom returns in a Kucherov like fashion I could get on board. My original thought when I heard the potential move was Koskinen plus a pick for Keith plus a pick (probably 6th rounders or something to “even” out cash). Chicago is currently looking at Lankinen, Subban and Delia for goalie depth. All above 3.00 GAA and none better than a 0.909 (Lankinen) save percentage. If I’m them I’m looking for a new tender to run with Lankinen. Another Finn could be the way to go in the Windy City.
Just my thoughts on it.
Ice District propaganda.
Same as it ever was.
#shadesofKingsway
This has been an astonishing hour of radio today.
Agreed. Very strange indeed.
Tho par.
If they want Jones they pony up a pick which we could use.
Neal for Keith – one for one
or
Neal + Jones for Keith + 3rd rounder
Cheap compared to what SEA will want. There are no other buyers. Neal for Keith one for one is ideal and meets Holland’s need to match salary in with salary out for both years. This is our chance to get rid of Neal for something modestly useful. Grind em Kenny.
If the Larsson camp is pushing back on 4x $3.5m (wanting to see what free agency has to offer)
And,
Barrie talks this week, lead Ken to believe he might get Barrie at 3 x $4.5.
Nurse Barrie
Keith Bouchard
Oleksiak/Forbort Bear
Samorukov
Starts to come in to view as a possibility
That’s quite a jump for Bouch.
Id rather sign Larsson than Barrie.
If they get Keith and keep Larsson a big change would be that Keith knows how to join the play.
So Larsson’s pair would then go from no offensive help to also supporting a five man unit that they talk about.
Not to mention it would be one of the meanest pairings in the league, no fun to play against.
3 meanies in the top four. Bear will have to come in prepared better again this camp and move a little closer in style to his name.
You’d rather pay Larsson 4x $4.5m ?
No but he won’t get that
I will say again, the Oilers don’t need offensive
They need more defense from players that have some ability offensively
Barrie is really good, but not in the way the Oilers need.
For a team that lacks a puck moving PP D he’s great. None of the above apply to us.
Barrie needs to be carried defensively. That’s Bouchard’s role now at far less cap. I also think in 40 games he’ll have passed Barrie with whatever term they give Barrie.
Holland also being old school will give movement protection. Nobody should except Connor and Leon. Maybe Nurse. Maybe Nuge bcs of his tenure and pain suffered.
Oleksiak and Barrie would be a disaster of epic proportions.
As would Ole and Larsson. Nobody is mobile.
A piece at the enemy’s site by Sportslogiq staff says Keith in the right role still has it. Solid zone exits and a great stick disrupting entries. I’ve mentioned sticks in the past a few times, it is a very beneficial skill the Oilers could use a lot more of as a team.
Saves so much hard work and is deflating to the bad guys across the redline.
Of course the price has to be right. But he’s not washed up if not what he was.
It’s interesting.
I always think of d in pairs: puck mover / people mover
When I think of Keith, I think of a guy who pairs better with a people mover
Though he is 6’1 and 192, so he might be a guy who can do both.
Sometimes you can have regular season success with a Toews Makar or puck mover / puck mover pairing.
With Connor Murphy last year
45% fenwick. 35% gf (177 min)
With Ian MItchell. (small rookie)
40.4% fenwick and 47% GF (275 min)
With Boqvist (small skilled rookie)
FF 48%; GF 45% (220 min)
Not necessarily a clear pattern here though his GF% was better with small skilled d last year.
I don’t think Keith is a people mover, but I do think he knows how to play with what he has.
Noone knows but I would think Keith Larsson would compliment each other well. Both good at suppressing entries, Larsson is really good getting the puck back physically.
I see skating as a big reason some D are not good with breakout passing. Larsson can pass, but is not mobile. Creating a lane is a big part of having a pass to make. Larsson (and Russell, same reason) are a lot of glass and out. Offense killing play.
Of course more forward support floats all D boats and the forwards own offense. Hopefully they also get better at this.
Keith I’ve been reading has excellent lateral movement. He can carry out but that also means he can create lanes in the forecheck to pass through. Bouchard as LT has mentioned already knows how to do this, using timing and a shift in position and his accuracy.
So you give Larsson a good puck mover again that he doesn’t have to babysit, which is what Klef did. Klef is also big and can skate and when healthy could handle the forecheck. Keith is way meaner than Klef and also a good skater, so maybe it washes that way.
Which site, I checked Flames Nation and Canucks Army and didn’t see anything using Sportlogiq data?
Sportsnet has pieces from them time to time.
LT’s enemy being a TSN guy.
I like that Lavoie is listed on the LW depth chart as I believe that’s where his best shot at an NHL career is (and where he played much of his time in Bakersfield).
Now, lets get Buchnevich (and, either knock Kailer down to 3RW or shift Jesse over to LW if Hall isn’t signed), Oscar Klefbom, Adam Larsson an ROLL!
He played LW, because Bakersfield had all those right shots. And they wanted to get him on a skill line.
I’ll be shocked if he does not play RW in Bakersfield this year.
I got to give props to Holland for signing Nuge. Cap hit that even his haters are ok with
only GM to have signed a UFA of more than depth value
and he was negotiating against Nuges horses
More than depth value?
Nuge was one of the top free agent forwards on the market.
Because Simmonds was re-signed but he would be under depth value
I’ve come to the opinion that there is no way we should take Keith without Neal going the other way. Period. Full-stop. They can then buy Neal out and get almost $4 million of cap savings. We get Keith on the 2nd/3rd pair and save the owner a bit of cash for a change.
Yes it’s far from optimal for CHI but what other option do they have? SEA will want at least a first round pick and probably more if recent history is a guide (Marleau). All of the options facing CHI are bad including pissing off Keith by doing nothing. Grind em Kenny. Grind em hard.
If, and it is a big “if”, the Oilers trade for Keith Duncan before the expansion draft then who does Edmonton protect on defense? Scenario 1 – Oilers also sign Larsson before the expansion draft – then protect Nurse, Larsson and Duncan (they will be forced to protect Duncan). Do they also protect Bear? if yes, this means they go 1-8 vs 7-3-1. Scenario 2 – they trade for Duncan after the expansion draft. Will they be required to protect Jones if he is part of the trade?
Perhaps these scenarios are one reason why the Larsson signing is not done yet? Do you have an opinion Allan? thx
Since Duncan’s two desired locations are Edmonton and Seattle, I don’t know if he’d mind being unprotected. Make him agree to waiving his NMC before trading for him. Doubt Seattle picks him anyway
I would suggest that no deal gets done unless either (a) the parties agree the NMC will not run with deal and fall away or (b) Keith agrees to waive for the purpose of the expansion draft (which he should be fine with given Seattle would be one of his agreeable destinations).
If the Oilers do trade for Duncan prior to the expansion draft it would shock me that they would leave him unprotected (why trade for him if you are willing to lose him?). IMHO if they acquire Keith prior to the draft they would protect him. Then do they go 7-3 or 4-4 or 1 goalies and 8 skaters. Makes one wonder re the timing of the Larsson signing…
Agreed. If Keith is acquired before expansion, they’ll protect him. Especially considered the amount of gold and silver reportedly being sent to Chicago.
The problem here is that Bowman seems to have convinced Holland that Keith has real value even at a big cap hit cost.
I am all for a Keith for Neal type deal as its cap neutral (essentially) and a player out with no value on the ice for a player in with some value on the ice.
At the same time, the player in with value (via-a-vis the player/cap out), in isolation, does not have value unless the cap is reduced to less than 50% (which is do-able but unlikely).
Neal for Keith and then Keith taken in the expansion draft would be an absolute boon.
Of course, Holland probably would value Keith on the roster and protect him even with a big cap hit – just like Kassian.
Sigh.
I think the die is cast. I love Neil Young’s singing. My wife has spent most of 40 years trying to tell me he’s not a good singer, and it never took. Matter of fact, she’s come around to my way of thinking on songs like Helpless and Harvest Moon.
The lesson here? Stay stubborn!
Please pass my condolences to Mrs. Lowetide.
Even Leonard Cohen was a better singer and that ain’t saying much.
Leonard Cohen and singer shouldn’t be used in the same paragraph. Songwriting genius without question. Neil Young however, can actually sing. The proof is in harmony.
Can you imagine Mr. Cohen coming close to harmonizing, not even (vomit) autotune could help him….
I like Neil as a musician but his anti-Alberta oil sands rhetoric is too much. That hypocrite flies around in private jets and he lives in huge mansions. Jane Fonda is no different. Do as I say, not as I do.
Gregor also believes Duncan Keith is “elite”. Hooo boy. Someone is drinking the silly juice again.
Gregor’s never known anything about hockey and makes constant factual errors on basics. Don’t bother listening to him.
I listen to Gregor. Smart hockey man.
Word. I’m partial to anonymous know-it-all’s on hockey fan boards myself…
I believe he said he was elite, and is no longer a top pairing D-man as of today. Unless the issue is with him ever having been elite in the first place?
Makes perfect sense. Elite but no longer top pairing?
Apparently you’re a buyer?
“He was elite”, meaning in the past tense. Not “he is elite”.
Thanks for clarifying. Past and present tense has always been an issue for me.
My bad, I should have said that he used to be which would have been a lot clearer.
Gregor said he used to be elite. No offence, but this is exactly how bad narratives start.
No offence taken. Rewind Selector!
“Keith has elite NHL skill, even if it has eroded a bit”
-Gregor
Gregor needs to give his head a shake. Larsson is not even close to being worth 4×4. Larsson is not the player he thinks he is. Overpay coming.
#kennysnotagrinder
#gregorsnotagrinder
If it were 4×4 I feel the deal would have been done already.
Larsson said he wants to stay and he is getting older but his results aren’t getting better.
I can’t imagine Larsson and his agent are that out to lunch and feel Larsson is entitled to more…
The difference between what Larsson’s worth to us, and what he’s worth to other franchises might be significant.
Free Agency is Crazy Season. Larsson might get 4 x $4.5 (or more) in free agency.
Or 3 X $2.75 (or less) in free agency
If I was Larsson, I’d go to Free Agency just to see what it looks like.
Agreed. He would come back begging for Kenny’s last offer?
Not just Gregor – various others (not just bloggers, but posters in this community, and elsewhere) think that’s in the realm of reasonableness.
I think that fourth year should get the AAV down closer to $3.5M but that’s not an egregious contract. Larsson is an important player.
Yup, he’s getting older, as we all are, but he’s not “old” – he’s 28 (I believe turns 29 a few months in to next season) and, in my opinion, for his style of defender, will be in his prime for the next few years. He may start regressing in years 3-4 but no surety on that – its not like a 4 year contract takes him to 35 or even 34. He’d be 32 entering in to its last season.
All through the changing of the guards of the past 10-13 years, the pro scouting department of this team remains the weakest link. Even though there has been turnover in that department.
Until we start to see a series of net neutral or positive results from trades and FA signings I will remain extremely paranoid and sceptical of the outcomes of moves that involve the pro scouting department of the Oilers.
it would be great to see the organization turn the corner in this area which has been their Achilles heel for so long.
here is hoping things go better this summer
Kassian for the ghost of Scrivens was a win.
Perron.
Maroon.
PTO to Krusty, Chiasson.
Jussi for Cammalleri.
Letestu was a good signing.
Talbot was a fine acquisition.
Sekera.
It’s not ALL bad, but I agree. Plenty of room for improvement.
True. These are the small ball low risk moves.
the bigger ones are the big problem
Jesse Puljujarvi (vis-a-vis his play for Karpat).
I don’t think Keith to Edmonton happens without the involvement of a 3rd team who is willing to eat cap for both teams in return for some form of compensation (picks and/or prospects)
This would certainly be better but at what price and who’s paying. What does $1M x 2 of cap cost, the ask would probably be a third. I could see us giving a 2022 5th and Chicago a 2021 4th (they have 2).
Seattle could easily do this.
What would you be prepared to send them if they did?
You mean what would Chicago be prepared to send Seattle to be the 3rd party cutout. They are the ones dumping cap in this deal, not the Oilers. The team dumping cap pays.
Seattle holds all the cards in this scenario.
They can ask whatever they want from either Chicago or Edmonton or both.
Edmonton holds as many cards as Seattle.
There is zero pressure on Edmonton to acquire Keith.
Not really as Edmonton has other options than Keith. Chicago doesn’t want to protect him and is trying to do him a solid. They will as judicious people try to secure a asset to move Keith but in all likelihood willing to leave him unprotected for the expansion draft.
Does anyone find it weird that Hall hasn’t signed with Boston yet? After Hall’s comments post-trade, I’ll be honest, I expected a signing right away.
I think a couple of people on here had suspected that maybe Boston was doing the whole, let’s agree to wait to announce the signing until after the expansion draft. But then I heard a very compelling argument from Gregor about why it is dumb for teams to do this.
So what is it? Is it weird that Hall hasn’t signed yet? Is he really going to test the market, after talking about how much he loved Boston?
I think its likely Boston is slow cooking this in order to see what’s possible in Free Agency.
Boston is in win now mode, Hamilton, Hyman, Hall etc
I would wait until the playoffs are done. I’m sure some teams are waiting until then – not saying that’s what the Bruins are doing though.
I’ve heard the league itself prefers no big announcements during the finals.
That has always been Bettman’s preference but this is a particularly short season & the league also has a rule about registering signings within 24 hours of them being signed, I believe, so not sure how those two things jive.
Pretty sure you could have a gentleman’s agreement (can we still say that?) and sign off on it shortly after the end of the season.
Yup. And in the case of long term employees older players I expect to see quite a bit of that. With younger guys a bit less but where the negotiantion wasn’t difficult I think you see it as well.
Not sure we will see it with guys like Hall, for example, where his tenure is measured in months.
On the Lowedown at 10:30ish….
If I heard it right,
Daniel Nugent Bowman says.. “I have Holland on the record that he is not interested in signing both Larsson and Barrie; It will be one or the other”
DNB believes Larsson is the preferred target.
I never knew until now that Holland was on the record with this.
Yes, I believe Daniel first reported that in his article at The Athletic last week (or the week before).
I will cautiously support a reasonably priced Duncan Keith acquisition, but I admit I’m mostly in favour for non-empirical reasons.
My lukewarm support is grounded in the opitimism that Hall of Fame defensemen don’t just grind into dust all of sudden even at the age of 37. I have to think a player like that has something left to give, even if the optimal outcome is just average second pairing results at best. Keith was formerly a very special player and I don’t think all of that “special” is gone.
But Keith’s defensive stats are very bad in a role that he probably can’t handle anymore. If he’s on the second pairing in Edmonton, then his usage will still involve very tough matchups as that is what Adam Larsson deals with regularly. Larsson himself had some of the best defensive metrics in the league last season with a smorgasbord of partners. I have no idea how him and Keith would work together but the latter can still skate and handle the puck so conventionally, you would think they could work. But conventional wisdom can get teams into trouble when they ignore a players on-ice evidence and use playing style tropes to justify their usage.
With regards to Keith’s metrics, I think we have to reconcile that Darnell Nurse scores poorly in the same measures. So that’s either a sign of poor things to come or a sign that a team or player can ‘succeed’ in spite of the player’s high volume of chances/shots against.
We really just need to Keith to be fine. And to come here with a cap hit that’s not too cost-prohibitive for the bottom pairing because it’s a real possibility that he ends up there. I’ve always really liked this player and I would love to see us benefit from him turning back the clock. I don’t know much about the other LD options we could get but I think a lot of them will be of a similar “hit and hope” possibility of success.
I think Keith will be playing with Bouchard, if the trade happens.
I agree with this. Would be thrilled to get Keith on a cap neutral deal. I would be stunned if his advanced metrics don’t improve on a better team with a better partner and being used in a more limited role. Having said that, I won’t be happy at all if we’re taking on $3 mill of his cap hit.
Chicago is moving Duncan to get cap space otherwise why move him. So we will be taking on cap to get him.
We need a serviceable 2LD for one or two years. Anything under $3.5M shouldn’t compromise spending on other needs. There aren’t many options in that range.
Interesting conversation with Avs fans on the price for Graves. https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/2422173
i’m not sure this is why the hawks are moving him. They are trying to grant the wish of a player who has helped them tremendously. And even trading Neil for Keith brings value to the Hawks, who can buy out Neil.
The Hawks and Keith would like nothing more than to finish his career in Chicago. Sometimes life gets in the way and he wants to be closer to the Okanagan for personal reasons. The Oilers hold all the cards but I can’t see Kenny being overly vicious and Chicago will make out all right but it’ll still be a win win for the Oilers.
I think they are trying to move him because he’s been asked to be moved and are trying to do him a solid.
Of course, if they are moving him, their management would love to move as much cap out as possible but that isn’t the driving factor of the move – its to be amenable to the player’s request.
The issue seems to be that Bowman believes the player, at his current contract, has value (or at least is trying to position it that way). Here is hoping that Ken Holland does not agree.
Im not really buying that distance from the Okanogan to Chicago is the real reason for Keith wanting to chsnge teams…… So I looked it up….it’s a 3 hour flight from Chicago to Calgary. The flight from Van, Cal, Edmonton to the Okanogan is nearly the same…all around one hour. I need to understand why Keith needs to move…. to save a 3 hour flight? Is this really the reason he wants to move teams? Seems weird to me. What? Is long distance phone calls too expensive for a millionaire? I mean this is 2021, no? Doesn’t everyone have a long distance package anymore? Anyway, I don’t buy that a 3 hour flight is the reason Keith wants out. Just saying…
The Canadian/US border is a factor, in particular in recent times.
The having to protect him for the expansion draft ways heavily in this. Cap dump is only a part of the reason!
I think it was Kurt’s article yesterday that mentioned the Oilers were going to circle back to the Barrie camp this week.
The stories went from “the Oilers are close with Larsson, expect a deal to be announced this week” to, “it’s in Larsson’s court, he’s thinking about what he wants post-vacation and by the way, we are going to circle back to the other RD who we previously thought had no chance of coming back.”
Who knows. It could all be games. But a RD of Bear, Barrie, and Bouchard is… something. If Bouchard truly is the stud we think he can be, it might be a non-issue.
Not mentioned enough, but I do love the little hints and nods to Driedger as an option. These hints date back to mid-season on Stauff’s show. I think he is the best of what’s available.
His 41 games over the past 7 seasons has you convinced, huh?
It’s not a large sample size, but I really like his advanced numbers this season, and the last. His AHL numbers in the 2 previous seasons weren’t too shabby either.
I think Grubauer has better numbers, but he will definitely cost more and so I prefer Driedger for the lesser price. I think I like Ullmark too, but that seems risky as well coming off of a horrible Buffalo teamand he will likely also cost more than Driedger.
So of the free agents, I like Driedger. I think he could be had for a shorter term than most, a lesser AAV than most, and his numbers are pretty. A 1A/1B tandem of him and Smith would be a nice little pairing, I think.
If we are talking potential trades, then I am sure there are better options than Driedger.
My bad, I didn’t realize Mrazek is a UFA. I think he would be a nice addition as well, but probably still prefer Driedger for the cost.
From both Gregor and Nugent-Bowman, seems like the Larsson deal is very very close to done (notwithstanding what Kurt is advising).
Nugent-Bowman also re-iterated with LT today that Holland straight up told him that both Larsson and Barrie won’t be back and there will indeed to a clear path for Bouchard.
Nugent-Bowman also said this morning to LT that, if Larsson isn’t re-signed before the draft (and another d-man isn’t brought in), Jones would indeed be protected.
I think the most difficult task faced by NHL GM’s is constructing a roster that can compete/beat several different styles of teams.
I mean, Colorado had a strong team but couldn’t get past the Golden Knights tenacious forwards and stellar goaltending.
Vegas had tenacious forwards and strong goaltending but couldn’t get past Montreal’s stellar goaltending, defense, and systems play.
Montreal had stellar goaltending, solid defense and strong systems play and are currently down 3-0 with a cumulative goal total of 14-5 in favor of Tampa.
I am going to bang on this drum all day.
Vegas is onto something.
They acquire big, fast, young forwards for their bottom two lines who can forecheck like mad, rarely have defensive miscues, but mostly don’t post gaudy offensive numbers (while still batting above the Mendoza line).
They acquired many of these players through trade. Roy, Janmark, and Kolesar (also Carrier in expansion draft).
These players are like the anti-Sam Gagner or Athanasious. They don’t post enough offense to cost you very much, but they keep the ship above water. Low event guys.
These are the players the Oilers should be looking for for their bottom six. Then you need one guy who can score on your third line like Tuch, then music.
The Oilers had way too many players with a gf/60 of under 2 last season.
So what you’re saying is a $100M payroll is a key to building a well rounded team.
I wonder if Ken is up to the task.
Elliotte Friedman (@FriedgeHNIC) Tweeted:
Interesting hire by BUF: Sam Ventura from PIT as its VP of Hockey Strategy and Research. Jason Nightingale will be Assistant Director of Amateur Scouting, moving forward.
https://twitter.com/FriedgeHNIC/status/1412073662543536130?s=20
For those that don’t know…Ventura founded the War On Ice analytics website.
Thanks for the update… interesting move for Buffalo. Their decisions might begin to make sense
War on Ice.. That was a beautiful website. Loved it.
Not good to see one of the only teams with a lighter analytics department than us hire someone like that…
Well, the Oilers still have a VP of Remembering the 80’s.
So there’s that. 🙂
I dunno…do you consider Lowetide.ca a light analytical department?
Lowetide.ca has a larger analytics department than nhl.com/oilers
Scott Cullen (@ByScottCullen) Tweeted:
Ooh, smart hire by the Sabres. Sam is a sharp guy and teams will make better decisions if they value his input.
https://t.co/raYc6ZzHoZ
https://twitter.com/ByScottCullen/status/1412095072766763011?s=20
More about Ventura when he was hired by the Penguins.
https://www.nhl.com/penguins/news/penguins-hire-sam-ventura-as-director-of-hockey-research/c-289961770
Maybe I’m reading the numbers wrong, but it looks to me like Hamonic had a better season than Larsson last year. He’s likely to be about 1/3 the AAV and may require just 1 year of term.
Is it crazy to think that re-signing Larsson shouldn’t be a huge priority? I noticed a significant amount of hesitancy in Holland’s response to Dusty (I think) asking about the Larsson negotiations… maybe I’m reading too much into it, but it seems like a Larsson deal might wait until free agency opens.
Maybe Kenny sees all this and is grinding Larsson?
4 x 3m
My issue with that is that Hamonic should come in around $1.5M x 1… and then Holland has the freedom to pursue Colton Parayko next summer.
The guy has had plenty of chances to play for the Oilers and preferred Calgary so F him. No place for him on the Oil.
Preferred Vancouver too.
He probably has learned his lesson by now.
This years “Sail On” has the potential to set new records.
It could like New York City Harbour on the 4th of July.
Possible exits:
Koskinen
Stalock
Skinner
Wells
Neal
Kahun
Jones
Lagesson
Klefbom
Turris
Chaisson
Ennis
Russell
Larsson?
Nuge?
Oh wait..
Landeskog?
An amazing month of speculation and consternation ahead, regarding the Oilers.
It’s like the media knows that older players on big contracts emotionally triggers the entire fanbase. Hmmm.
Those D-pairings for the Fall should be:
Nurse – Bear (?)
Player X – Larsson (fingers-crossed)
Lagesson/Russell – Bouchard
Need a solid 2-way LHD for the 3/4 hole. Larsson will play up at times with Nurse. So, a LHD who can adapt to Bear (in addition to playing with Larsson) is a consideration. My preference is for a physical player in that 2-way role.
This will be the month to really learn about Holland’s ability to build a roster in current times.
Alec Martinez
Leavins intimated that he’s not available to the Oilers (presumably not interested in coming to Edmonton?).
How would Leavins know that? Sounds like a boilerplate reaction to every suggestion of signing every American player ever.
No idea what his source(s) might be. But he mentioned it in the twitter thread responses to his latest 9 things article (that defmn pointed out last night).
I didn’t get that impression. He also mentioned Oleksiak and McCabe as likely not available to the Oilers (so 2 Americans, 1 Canadian). Whether it’s true or not we can’t know, but it wasn’t just a blanket statement about US players.
I believe it was Friedman who was speculating that he was going to get real term to go with a big AAV, even at his age – like 5 plus years at $5M plus.
Yes, even at his age – speculated.
“After that? It’s some combination of Zach Hyman, Tomas Tatar, Mike Hoffman, Blake Coleman, Mike Smith, Chris Driedger, Travis Zajac, Derek Ryan, Barclay Goodrow, Ryan Getzlaf.”
We have McDavid, Draisaitl, Nuge and Nurse.
We have a good crop of maturing prospects
We have 20millionish of cap space
We’re in an above average position in the expansion draft.
If we can’t nail this thing down, we don’t deserve to have nice things.
I woke up this morning from a dream in which I had the chance to go back in time to convince the Oilers to do something differently. The difficulty was figuring out how to convince Chiarelli not to trade for Reinhart!
Next time can you go a little further back and convince Nichoslon not to hire Chiarelli.
Or…go back further to fifteen summers ago and convince MAB not to pitchfork Andrew Ladd onto Roli.
Yeah… the 2003 draft could have been a good spot to return to also!
If you can go back even further, tune the DeLorean onto the morning of August 9, 1988.
Location: Edmonton Molson House
My question for Daniel is:
Ken Holland seems to be a pretty straightforward guy in terms of telling us both where things are at and what he is thinking.
My two questions are
Klefbom?
and
Koskinen?
Maybe Ken Holland is who everybody has been telling us he is, and Klefbom news is hot air. He’s shoulder pressing 3 plates.
(shhhhhhh…. Ron Francis is listening…..)
Maybe Ken Holland is who everybody has been telling us he is, — ——- —- — — — He’s shoulder pressing 3 plates.
.
.
“Three plates? Really? … Kenny doesn’t look that strong”
Likewise, the delay in signing Larsson.
From Gregor (and I believe Nugent-Bowman), the Larsson deal is very close to done – they are pretty much there on AAV and term and Larsson is just taking his time for a bit to ensure he’s making the move he wants – this is his first (and last) time at being coveted as an unrestricted player.
12 days until expansion draft lists are submitted.
I don’t doubt Larsson signs with the Oilers at some point. I would not be surprised if it happens after the draft (in particular if a Keith trade materializes).
You could be right.
For me, I can’t in any way get on board with Keith being protected in the expansion draft. If there is an acquisition, it has to, among other things, include an agreement of Keith to waive it for the expansion draft (in my opinion). Presumably he’d be fine with that given Seattle is a destination he’s willing to go.
Caleb Jones would get protected if Larsson hasn’t signed yet.
In my opinion.
I’d assume there’s salary retained if Keith is acquired, and he’ll be protected (he’d be more attractive to Seattle with salary retained be Chicago).
If Keith and Larsson aren’t added then for sure Jones will be protected.
Hi LT, I am a regular and appreciative reader, but not a poster. Just a question about Tomas Tatar, whom you have frequently been mentioning as potential Oiler and showed yesterday potentially playing with McDavid and Puljujarvi. I have always liked Tatar, but am wondering if he is still the same Tatar we have seen in the past? Can someone who is a healthy scratch for Montreal in this year’s playoffs help Oilers go deeper in next year’s playoffs?
For me, if you look at his season, the numbers are there. I’m not sure why he isn’t playing (although some believe he’s hurt), but he remains a quality offensive winger at five on five (the biggest game state). I think his downturn and HS’s in Montreal may aid Edmonton in signing him to a reasonable deal. I would pursue him.
That line is fire.
Tatar – Danault – Gallagher
65 % goal share in 825 minutes during the past two regular seasons.
And yet which of three would you take, including contract risk, if you had a choice?
If you factor in presumed next contracts, Tatar is very likely the best ‘bet’.
I’m still not sure I’d pursue him though, his usage during 2 deep playoff runs is too much for me to ignore (depends how low it drives the price though I guess, and what other options are available).
Should they acquire Tatar I don’t expect a deep playoff run with him in 1LW. The deep playoff runs start 22-23 at which point he would not be 1LW. If acquired he should be signed to 1 y deal
Wouldn’t be 1LW because Holloway? Or because you think they’ll only sign him for 1 year?
IMO, you don’t limit your acquisition of a top 6 forward because Holloway. There’s no guarantee he’s a top 6 player in the next couple of years. And if he is, he or the top 6 acquisition playing on the 3rd line is both affordable and gives the team excellent depth.
On the 1 year thing for Tatar. I agree that would be ideal, I just don’t think it’s realistic. Based on his regular seasons over multiple years he’s probably the actual top UFA forward on the market this summer (by 5v5 on ice results and point rates). He’s not going to get paid in full for those results, but I also don’t see any way the offers are so bad that he’ll be motivated to take a 1 year deal from the Oilers or anyone else.
Of course Danault and Gallagher would be “better players” but the premise of Tatar, at least for me, would be a short (one year) value contract ($3M) to re-establish value playing with McDavid/Drai – this year’s Tyson Barrie.
Of course I’d rather have Saad, Danault, etc. added to the Oilers but those are entirely different contract situations.
I don’t disagree but, at the same time, with Nuge locked in for term and likely top 6 LW for the foreseeable future (mainly), I do think the team needs to be careful if they are planning on adding another $5M plus LW for term that will be approaching 30.
I think the likes of Holloway and where he may end up in the next 1-3-5 years do need to be taken in to account. The great thing is, both Holloway and Nuge can play center. If there is another “expensive” top 6LW, one of those guys can be a 3C……
Yeah, I dunno.
I hear you on planning out the years ahead, but Holloway is on ELC for the next 3 years.
If Saad, say, is willing to sign for $5Mx6, I don’t think you avoid it because Holloway might be a top 6 winger. If Holloway pops, you’re paying 3 top 6 wingers $11M. If he doesn’t, or if he ends up at C, we’ll you still have your 2 top 6 wingers.
There’s zero issues for 3 years while he’s still cheap. There’s only so far you can reasonably plan ahead, and you severely limit the quality of FA you can bring in if you’re only willing to give 3 years term.
Speaking of scouting the 2015 draft, NHL Central Scouting had Lawson Crouse above Mitch Marner for North American skaters (https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-central-scoutings-2015-final-rankings/c-761663).
I’ve often wondered which scout(s) made that call and whether they are still working in hockey.
I had Marner No. 3, Crouse No. 18. I think most observers would have had Marner higher than Crouse.
https://lowetide.ca/2015/06/26/here-comes-the-sun-2/
I remember you had Marner higher than many/most on this board. You were pretty effusive in your praise of the young man.
In terms of ranking scouts, you get a AAA+ on that one.
Small sample size though… haha….
I recall that before we won the lottery there was a fair amount of talk on this site that we should draft Crowse because he was a huge winger and was NHL ready.
NHL Central Scouting is about identifying all the players. They do not do complete deep dives that NHL teams should be doing on all the players.
It is a “rough draft” of the draft order. It has never claimed to be anything more. Which is why they have seperate lists for North America and Europe.
I agree with GEORGEXS, Montreal does not have a particularly strong roster. But, the do have a particularly balanced roster which can often go far in the playoffs.
Hot goalies can take you a long way.
I concur. Expensive 1st round pick goalies can take you a long way…
In a heavy Italian accent….. “Of cossa they can!”
Montreal is interesting.
They don’t have the star power up front, but they have a few interesting things
Sad news but future stud goalie Kivlieniks has passed away at age 24. Was gonna be CBJ starter in near future
Absolutely tragic.
What a damn shame, far too young. Condolences to his family, friends and the CBJ.
Per athletic
some fireworks malfunction in hot tub sent everyone scrambling and he slipped and hit his head
What a tragedy
Just awful news. Is Latvia cursed when it comes to talented young hockey players taken far too soon? This news makes me think of Pelss.