Cover Me

by Lowetide

Based on reports Adam Larsson is heading to free agency and that’s a concern. We can argue about the pricetag for Duncan Keith, but the premise of the deal (as I see it) would be running a veteran (and probably effective) second pairing of Keith-Larsson behind Darnell Nurse-Ethan Bear and ahead of Kris Russell-Evan Bouchard.

Is this Larsson thing real? If it is, what can Edmonton do about it?

THE ATHLETIC!

I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here’s the latest!

LARSSON

Many on this blog were not in favour of signing Larsson, and many balked at my assertion that $4 million times four years would be required. Now? That may not be enough to get him. Larsson will be a unique free agent, a RH shutdown defender on the good side of 30.

It’s difficult to know if this is a blessing or a travesty, as Larsson’s injuries (including back) make a long-term deal risky. I’d sign him to 4×4 this instant and figure out the protected list (you’d have to trade Kailer Yamamoto) before 3pm this afternoon and the final list deadline.

The list of possible replacements isn’t promising. A quick glance at the free-agent pile gives up Mike Stone and dozens of other candidates who boil down to six levels of Dylan McIlrath. Not going to be easy. No sir.

Edmonton will be in a spot of bother. I’ll miss Larsson, but am pleased Ethan Bear’s job security went through the roof. How will the Oilers depth chart look on defense opening night? Stay tuned.

PROTECTED LIST (LIKELY)

  • Goal: Stuart Skinner
  • Defense: Darnell Nurse, Ethan Bear, Duncan Keith
  • Forwards: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jesse Puljujarvi, Kailer Yamamoto, Josh Archibald, Zack Kassian

I would protect Benson over Kassian and Stalock over Skinner but the die is cast. If I was Seattle, Dominik Kahun would be the choice and signing him to a reasonable contract would be the priority. He’s going to be the best plug and play forward available and the expansion draft isn’t giving the Kraken many.

POSSIBLE OILERS ROSTER

There’s $1.2 million remaining, Koskinen to Nashville for Borocop, Kyle Turris and William Lagesson are in Bakersfield. Tyler Benson is checking out Pike’s Place Market, Adam Larsson is in Philadelphia, Cooper Marody was the last cut.

What can Ken Holland do today before the trade deadline (1 this afternoon, Edmonton time). He could add a goalie (Jake Allen has been mentioned several times as being dealt to various NHL cities) or he could deal for a forward (Zack Kassian and Josh Archibald could be exposed).

TYLER BENSON

Let’s not get ahead of ourselves here, Tyler Benson isn’t the next Ryan Smyth. However, the Oilers don’t know what he is yet, having deployed him in just seven NHL games.

Josh Archibald can be replaced in free agency, Zack Kassian’s contract means he won’t be chosen and even if he was those dollars could be used elsewhere.

Benson is a value contract, offers Edmonton a player at a position of weakness, and can make plays with depth linemates (shown with a lovely pass to Archibald for his only NHL point.

If Benson doesn’t get protected today, it’s still possible the Kraken choose another (Kahun would be my choice). The pipeline is producing talent now, not all of it easily placed into the lineup. Benson has proven everything he can in the AHL, it’s now time for an NHL opportunity.

Seattle or Edmonton, that is the question.

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jimboil

Get good players, keep good players.

How do Oilers not match or do better than 4×4 for Larson?

OriginalPouzar

Matt Duchene and Ryan Johansen, Justin Shultz, Appelton and DeMelo, Giordano, Kerfoot.

OriginalPouzar

McCann, Kerfoot and Dermott left unprotected by the Leafs.

OriginalPouzar

Avs protected Grubauer but not Landeskog.

Compher, Donskoi, Johnson all exposed.

OriginalPouzar

PuckPedia Retweeted
Ryan S. Clark
@ryan_s_clark
·
41s
BREAKING: Carey Price, Vladimir Tarasenko, Gabriel Landeskog, Ryan Johansen, Mark Giordano, Jonathan Drouin, Yanni Gourde, Tyler Johnson, Jason Zucker, Jared McCann and Kaapo Kahkonen are among those players who have been exposed ahead of the expansion draft. #SeaKraken

OriginalPouzar

Available: Voracek, van Riemsdyk, Braun, Gostisbehere, Hagg.

OriginalPouzar

Frank Seravalli
@frank_seravalli
·
3m
#GoBolts players exposed: Palat, Gourde, Johnson, Killorn, Maroon, Joseph, Rutta.

OriginalPouzar

Chris Johnston
@reporterchris
·
35s
Official #NYI protection list (7-3-1)

Protected: Barzal, Beauvillier, Clutterbuck, Lee, Martin, Nelson, Pageau, Mayfield, Pelech, Pulock, Varlamov.
Available: Bailey, Dal Colle, Eberle, Komarov, Panik, Greene.

jimdewger

They really like Martin and Clutterbuck…

leadfarmer

Why protect UFA you are lowballing

leadfarmer

Kahkoknen driedger is a great tandem
i Would love either

TheGreatBigMac

There are lots of good players but there is still a cap. I took a first pass on capfriendly and ended up with a 95M cap hit. Kraken will definitely have to be looking at value and not just talent.

maudite

Yup

Jaxon

I hope they protect Khaira and Benson over Archibald and Kassian.

OriginalPouzar

Many hope but the chances are all but zero – Oilers management value Kassian,even at his current contract.

Jaxon

Yup. Agree. I’m not holding my breath, but I am hoping. Makes me shake my head. Maybe we’ll all be pleasantly surprised.

Last edited 1 month ago by Jaxon
Jaxon

I wonder if Seattle speaks to Slepyshev this week? I’d sign Slepyshev as my Edmonton pick.

OriginalPouzar

Slep is signed in the KHL this season.

THey can claim his rights but can’t sign him and, when he’s able to sign, he’ll be an NHL UFA.

Jaxon

DOH! I thought 2021-22 was his UFA season. Should have checked before posting.

rickithebear

Top 186 evmin def dman +ve goal differential affect rank last 3 seasons
Sekera #1
Demers #8
Mete #9
Russell #11
Benning #20
Dunn #22
J Marino #31
Kulikov #51
Larsson #60
Leddy #79
Klefbom #144
Nutse #164
Bear #167
Keith #172
Greene #174
Hughes #184
Karlson #186

Questions are:
-Do the Kraken take top 10 open shot save% goalie Price.
-How many Top 60 def dman will they take.
-How many Fwds w/top 125 fwd history or prospect w/rates that will be top 125 with increased TaoI role are taken.
-How many of the best PK fwd & Dmen are available.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

The top of your list is littered with bottom pairing players. That they will be exposed due to the rules of the draft basically suggests that Francis will be proclaimed a genius for choosing your favourite type of players.

Run that list again with TOI and I bet you’ll see who coaches trust most.

Price, like VGK picking Fleury, could anchor that team for years.

Redbird62

Based on Ricki’s theory, even John Cooper doesn’t know what he is doing playing Hedman more minutes than Cernak, Schenn and Rita. A good defenseman probably doesn’t even need to cross his own blue line since he isn’t required to make meaningful contributions at the other end😉.

Redbird62

Rutta not Rita – stupid autocorrect.

Harpers Hair

Brian King
@Kinger999
·
4m

Oilers had a massive need at LW all year long.

Tyler Benson was top 5 in AHL scoring but wasn’t called up because you gotta “Over Ripen” and “Over Percolate” – note that both of these things ruin the food – and now he’s going to be lost for nothing.

Good job good effort.

Dac189

I’m thinking they’d sooner choose Kahun but we’ll see. Not sure who will have the better career between the two.

A lot has been made recently about Oilers incompetence in choosing not to protect Benson. It will be interesting to see how this all plays out.

Jaxon

I think they might sign Slepyshev.

Harpers Hair

@JasonGregor
· 7m
Was told “no surprises” on Oilers protected list… which for me means they likely protect:
Archibald, Draisaitl, Kassian, McDavid, Puljujarvi, RNH and Yamamoto.

Bear, Keith and Nurse.

Skinner.

Kert

No surprises means nothing, because protecting Kassian would absolutely surprise me.

OriginalPouzar

It will disappoint but me but surely wouldn’t surprise me – would surprise me if they left him unprotected.

defmn

Not sure if this has been posted here yet.

Nick Alberga
@thegoldenmuzzy
As forecasted, I’m hearing #FlyTogethecomment image has left F Adam Henrique unprotected for the Expansion Draft.

OriginalPouzar

No surprise there – good player, awful contract.

kelvjn

Considering every 3rd or 4th line forwards were waived (and unclaimed) last year, the reasonable thing to do would be to protect Benson instead.

There is clear consensus around the league that whoever played on the Oilers bottom two lines last year were replacement level. Not saying Benson is any better, but he is at least an unscratch lottery ticket (with very long odds roughly equal to Oilers winninga cup next year).

Keeper_13

I thought our bottom 6 was better than last year. liked Archibald, Khaira, and Ennis. McLeod too. Liked Haas and Nygaard too, but in the end I don’t think their games are well rounded enough for the bottom 6 and I don’t think they have enough offense for the top 6.

Did not like Kassian, except for a few games. Don’t care what the numbers say, I care what my eyes saw and my eyes saw a passenger. Maybe Kassian played really well in the games I missed, maybe I’m just wrong, but there’s no point in watching 80% of the season and then letting statistics override what my eyes showed me.

Last edited 1 month ago by Keeper_13
OriginalPouzar

I watched 100% of the games and your eyes did not deceive you.

kelvjn

They were bad.

None of the 30 teams thought Oilers 7th to 14th forwards would have been an improvement over what they had for 14h forward.

Honest don’t see the need to protect Archibald or Kassian, if the team didn’t mind losing them off waiver just a few months ago.

Even from a league will get water down next year (so player in shorter supply than spot) perspective, there are 30 teams x 1~3 (13~15th forward from last year)per team = 30~90 forward at a similar level looking for a starting job.

Sigh.

Redbird62

Neither Archibald nor Kassian were placed on waivers by the Oilers at any point last season.

leadfarmer

I’m still admiring this epic troll job by Tampa and Rangers.
So Francis claimed that he was going to put the screws to teams for helping them with cap issues. So what happened today. The Rangers acquired Goodrows rights for a 7th round draft pick not this year but next. Now why trade for someone’s rights for almost nothing from Tampa’s point of view and a player you probably can’t afford from Rags point of view (need to sign Zibanejad Fox buchnevich Kakko Shesterkin Laferniere strome or replacement in the very near future I mean that’s a lot of cap)
simple. Kraken are trying to sign Goodrow so now if they do they just used up their choice from the Rangers. And now the opposite applies to Bolts. They have to shed a lot of cap so signing Goodrow from Tampa they could put the screws to Tampa as picking Goodrow didn’t help them shed any cap. Now they have to pick someone that will shed cap. Most have Yanni Gourde as their pick so that will help them shed 5.2 mi and not be stuck negotiating with Francis. Because so far it appears no one wants to negotiate with Francis

Fiveinatrailer

Outstanding post. 3D chess

Keeper_13

Interesting how GMs are so much more savvy dealing with Seattle after Vegas fleeced them like rubes. With Vegas the mindset was, “oh boy, an expansion team to take advantage of! They’ll be hapless losers for a decade for sure.” With Seattle the mindset is, “oh crap, an expansion team to defend against. I’ll be damned if I’m going to help them create one of the best teams in the league.”

MADOIL

Great analysis! Wish we had smart GMs like these. We may be losing a potentially good 3rd / 4th line left winger for nothing.

Coiler

Excellent analysis.

I have often thought that Vegas and now Seattle have had some advantages that they essentially paid for with their expansion fee.

It boggles my mind that Vegas isn’t subject to this expansion draft 4-5 years in. I call BS on that one.

leadfarmer

They were supposed to suck. And they were worried about making a sucky team suck more
and of course didn’t want to share money

Harpers Hair

Bob Stauffer (@Bob_Stauffer) Tweeted:
Re: Miro Heiskanen deal.

Darnell Nurse through sheer will and determination has grown to be an indisputable top-2 NHL D.
He is also completely committed to the organization and the city.
After taking 2 straight bridge deals, he deservedly will get paid in his next one! https://t.co/9ES3X0VUsj

https://twitter.com/Bob_Stauffer/status/1416579274769780738?s=20

leadfarmer

Yeah we all knew this other than you
penciled in for 8-8.5 mil a year

Harpers Hair

Nurse will soon turn 27.

Heiskanen is 21.

I wonder how that will turn out.

leadfarmer

Pretty well actually
he’s got the legs to handle the 30s

Keeper_13

My guess is 7-9 depending on how much he likes it here and how much he’s willing to leave on the table to use to build a team around himself.

defmn

I got busy after the roster freeze came into effect.

Have we decided if we are pissed because Holland didn’t do anything or happy because he didn’t do anything silly? 😉

godot10

The OIlers don’t have excess draft picks or enough prospects to trade to have done anything useful today.

Harpers Hair

Could have easily picked up #3C Mason Appleton for a song.

Didn’t.

LoDog

Yes the elusive 3c that doesnt play centre.

Harpers Hair

Yeah that elusive #3 centre who didn’t play centre because the Jets had too many.

Good grief.

OriginalPouzar

He’s been a winger for his entire NHL career.

He’s never even been moved to the middle when actual centers were out of the lineup.

He’s not a center.

Harpers Hair
OriginalPouzar

What is the point of posting that? He hasn’t played center in the NHL.

DevilsLettuce

Mason Appleton, 138 NHL games played, 27 face offs taken, 15 tastes of defeat.

Future 3C written all over him.

jp

Yes the elusive 3c that doesnt play centre.

Well, that IS pretty elusive.

defmn

What song was that?

I didn’t hear an asking price, did you?

Harpers Hair

You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.

Appleton is a big miss.

defmn

That is nonsense HH. I am more than happy to criticize what this team does but you might want to wait until TC to talk about what is or isn’t a big miss. You have no idea what the ask was from Chevy – a GM known for just giving players away.

jp

You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.

Appleton is a big miss.

Got it.

All of the trades that never happened: the Oilers should have won them. 👍

jp

Could have easily picked up #3C Mason Appleton for a song.

Didn’t.

That zero other teams in the league picked up for a song?

Perhaps the song isn’t the one you think it is?

Harpers Hair

How many teams need a #3C?

jp

Or winger, if he really was available for a ‘song’.

Also, guy has taken exactly 27 face offs in his 138 game career. It doesn’t look like he was even the 2nd FO option on his lines. That’s absolutely not a plug and play 3C.

OriginalPouzar

but capfriendly lists him as a winger/center……

jp

but capfriendly lists him as a winger/center……

Yes. It seems that was the level of analysis that was done here.

buck yoakam

which is your song?…really

rickithebear

How many of our 16/17 Reg ssn top 60 def Dmen
Larsson, Russell, Sekera, Benning will we have after Expansion & Free agency.
We still have Our best “drafted” def dman prospect in 2 decades.

Holland traded our 2nd best Def dman prospect Jones.
Potential top 60 Broberg & Berglund are signed.

Cause I hear we are going to protect Career:
Bottom 40 def dman Nurse
Bottom 20 def dman Bear
bottom 15 def dman Keith (NMC)
Exposing Bottom 40 def dman Klefbom.

At age 4-5 I observed The violence of Flin Flon bombers was about getting closer to the net. scoring goals
It was the observation launched my High density shot success area.
My Homeplate theory. Originally called “ Rickisbox” on this site more than a decade ago.

The Start of my hockey Physics formula.
Volume x density = Mass
Shot volume * xSH% (x,y success density) = xG (expected goals)
“thanks to who ever created the short form for my work.”

As a young kid playing road hockey with a younger “Ron Gunville” I observed him moving with the ball like a Table Hockey Goalie.
The ball hit him at a higher rate and the ball went in less.
Balks that hit him had zero chance of going in.
itbwas the observation that launched 3 theories.
A. Table hockey goalie movement (Phase 1 of Goal diff tracking)
B. open/ closed Shots: Their were shots that had zero% chance of going in.
C. Closed ( Non scoreable) Corsi = (Blocks + Misses + closed shots)

these collection of theories lead to the creation the others of my 50+ NHL related theories. Some specific to NHL, Some also related to other penetration based sports.

Realizing that Open shots (greater than 0% density shots based on x,y release & y,z net location) had strong/poor players.
A. Forwards could have diffrent Career xSH%
B. Dmen could have different xGA Total density = xSave% baseline to their def side.
C. Goalies have a collection individual +/-ve Save% relative to each set of Dpairs 2 different dmens xSave% on their def side.

It allowed more to identify the Elite players that reoccur in final 4 teams.
my (now 30 year) look at those rosters allowed me to create The only Pro sports Championship proof..
VGK copied that theory, selecting 100% of players in Expansion that matched my theory.

On 16/17 we had on our roster:
#1 goal diff Def dman ( when traded for) Larsson ( Who faced 1St Comp)
Top 15 goal diff def dman Russel who was capable of 1st/2nd comp.
Top 15 goal diff def dman Sekera who was capable of 2 nd comp.
Top 40 goal diff def dman Benning who was capable of 3rd comp.
Career bottom 40 def dman Nurse who chose to stop his Reg ssn abandoning of Homeplate, to play like at top 60 goal diff def dman.

07/08 I presented my 3D non zone start Coach decision differentiated (Team, comp, ZS) graph of 96 groups of xAverages for any data column.
But everyone told me their was not a large enough sample size for the work.

What I did not realize was they came from a binary variable academic world.
my Autistic Brain (caused by High grey matter mass Neanderthal DNA brain: My White Paper) did not work like that.
IQ is not a true measure of intellect ( White Paper)
Lower IQ people can have Complex variable Triarch intelligence.

Once you apply 3+ variables those binary restrictions are gone.
In research you map the number of variables required to get to the correct variable resolution for your work.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Your explanations of your base theories has improved with time, especially that you’re now noting who you believe is top-4 and bottom pairing.

Who you play with and against matters a lot.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

I’m interested in who you think Seattle will select. If you’re up for it, please make a post before the draft.

Harpers Hair

HUGE.

Pierre LeBrun (@PierreVLeBrun) Tweeted:
Hearing that Carey Price has waived his no-move for purpose of exposure in the expansion draft so that the Habs could protect Jake Allen in the expansion draft. The thought is that Seattle wouldn’t want to pick up the rest of Price’s hefty contract. But I guess we will see.

https://twitter.com/PierreVLeBrun/status/1416551031807385600?s=20

Fiveinatrailer

Trade Koski plus? For price. Either directly to mtl (prospect) or to Kraken (higher level prospect/ pick). What’s prices cap and term left?

I remember earlier in the year when Price was struggling, there were rumours that he was available.

this is another high risk/ reward scenario depending on age and acquisition cost.

Harpers Hair

5X$10.5M

Harpers Hair

Worth noting, Price is 5 years younger than Duncan Keith.

C’mon on down Ken Holland.

leadfarmer

given some of these prices being discussed in free agency 2 years of Keith stopgap doesn’t sound too bad

OriginalPouzar

I think the must have been one of Holland’s reasons – a two year overpay for Keith as opposed to overpaying another 2LD for 4-6 years. I’m sure he thinks that one (if not both) of Sammy and Broberg get there.

jp

4.

I liked how Keith didn’t correct Spector when he called him 38 (he turned 38 yesterday).

Harpers Hair

Seattle might consider picking Price, retaining half and flipping him for a haul.

Would all have to be in place before the expansion draft but Seattle can still make trades ahead of the draft.

Primetime

Chris Johnston just tweeted that he waived for expansion draft only. Could not be flipped to another team without his consent

leadfarmer

Ummm NMC
They can pick him up but can’t trade him without him signing off.
so not gonna happen

OriginalPouzar

Of course, there is the little matter of Price’s continuing NMC….. I’d be just fine if a division rival wanted to start their team building with 5 years of $5M of dead cap – the Bill Guerin way!

leadfarmer

Isn’t the entire Canucks team dead cap space?

Harpers Hair

Childish.

leadfarmer

Funny coming from you

pts2pndr

He still didn’t get down to your gutter level!🙈

Harpers Hair

Kerby (@kerbjack) Tweeted:
@PierreVLeBrun Met his wife while playing in Tri Cities in Washington state, and spends part of his summer there every year. 
Thinking he wouldn’t mind landing there if the Kracken want him & his hefty contract

https://twitter.com/kerbjack/status/1416555200228171779?s=20

Fiveinatrailer

That makes sense and is fair.

but Koski HAS to be part of the package or bought out- is his cap that much higher than Allen as a backup…?

price won’t be part of any winning core if he pulls chute to the Kraken.

leadfarmer

at that point you might as well start a rebuild and trade Petry

Harpers Hair

If Francis is feeling devilish, he could pick Price and trade him back to Montreal.

leadfarmer

Yeah he does that and no one will really trade with him.

leadfarmer

And literally can’t do that without Price signing off which he wouldn’t do

Harpers Hair

You have no idea what Price is thinking.

leadfarmer

Because I’m sure he wants to get jerked around by Francis

leadfarmer

Man your Kraken team is getting taken behind the woodshed here

Harpers Hair

Nonsense.

For every player not available in the expansion draft, another one becomes available.

leadfarmer

Yeah a worse one
gonna Be a team of Granlunds

leadfarmer

Also Price is owed 11 mil bonus in September

Harpers Hair

And?

Seattle ownership is awash in billionaires.

Side

You have no idea what those billionaires are thinking.

buck yoakam

A Three Hour Tour…

Harpers Hair

A bottom 6 of Granlunds, a solid D and $40 million of cap space.

leadfarmer

Two decent goalies and a team of granlunds

Sierra

The Kraken should take Price.

leadfarmer
Ozoil

I still have a hard time seeing bear penciled in on the top pair. Have we already forgotten how game 4 against Winnipeg went? How did Tippet use bear in OT. You think he’s told Holland he’s comfortable with Bear as his number 1 right d?

godot10

Nurse is like Pronger. It doesn’t matter who is on the right side anymore, as long as the defenseman is a legit NHL defensemen with reasonable skating and passing ability.

Ozoil

I half agree with this. I do believe Nurse can make a competent d look a lot better, but hate him or love him Barrie brought out the best in nurse, I do give credit to Nurse for stepping his game up last year but I do believe that Barrie had some to do with it. If Nurse can make Bear a top pair defense Nurse will be every bit of his next raise and more

OriginalPouzar

Nurse did have his best season so I can’t totally discount Barrie’s effect on that.

At the same time, I would suggest that Nurse had a much more materially positive effect on Barrie than the other way around. Barrie had a GF% below 30% without Nurse and Nurse while Nurse’s actual GF% dropped a bit without Barrie, it was still over 50% and his xGF% went up almost 10% to 57%.

Of course, McDavid is a factor in ALL of this but Bear had a great season playing with Nurse in 2019/20 and Barrie had a great season playing with Nurse in 2021 (as did Bear).

Ozoil

I agree that nurse helped barrie, no doubt. I don’t care what the numbers say though, Barrie brings more than bear, full stop. Nurse will make all his partners better at this stage.

OriginalPouzar

Fair enough but I will disagree as far as their overall games.

OriginalPouzar

I’m not sure too much stock should be put in to a 4-game series let alone a single game or portion of a single game.

Tippett (and Playfair) seemed very comfortable with Bear as 1RD in 2019/20.

Fiveinatrailer

People forget so easily how Bear was concussed in the season. I know he wasn’t as good as the year before, but remember the context.

he went from healthy and playing with Nurse, to post concussion playing with Krusty.

Im not saying he’s a lock to replace Barrie or a 1RD. “Im not confident. But I’m not NOT confident…”

OriginalPouzar

I actually think Bear played better after he came back from his concussion – down the stretch vs. earlier in the year. Lets not forget he signed on the even of camp and, from accounts, wasn’t in the same type of shape as the year before.

At the end of the day, Bear’s most common partners were Nurse, then Jones, then Rusty.

Harpers Hair

Chris Johnston

@reporterchris

#SeaKrakecomment image GM Ron Francis: “The one thing we think is extremely, extremely valuable in this environment is cap space.”
2:37 PM · Jul 17, 2021·Twitter Web App

leadfarmer

Meaning
”I completely read the market wrong and was completely ignored by every GM due to my excessive demands”

Harpers Hair

If it comes down to right or wrong, I’ll go with Francis.

As I expected, he’s going to go cheap in the expansion draft and use his voluminous cap space to build a winner.

Ozoil

Wrong. It’s Intangibles, cups, olympic golds

Keeper_13

You can tell we’re talking about the NHL. Possible candidates for What Matters Most: cap space, intangibles, cups, golds. Not at all a candidate for What Matters Most: being good at hockey.

Harpers Hair

Elliotte Friedman (@FriedgeHNIC) Tweeted:
As expected, sounds like NYI re-signed Andy Greene to a one-year deal. $750K, plus $250K in bonuses.

https://twitter.com/FriedgeHNIC/status/1416513624449982465?s=20

winchester

Just signed in to see what was happening.

so how did the Oilers make out taking advantage of protection spots or hunting up players that needed to be moved?

Harpers Hair

See below.

Ozoil

Same. As. It. Ever. Was.

Keeper_13

Last year was great. 5.5m in cap space became the NHLs points leader for defensemen, a starter who got vezina votes, and a plug and play top 6 winger who could adequately fill a roster spot for under a mil. All this and about 600k change.
This year 5.5m in cap space + Caleb Jones + 3rd rounder became the aging shadow of Duncan Keith and about 800k in change.
I suppose Holland must have thought, “I can has Duncan Keith????!?!?!” and reacted like a teenager offered a bed full of supermodels. I’ve seen no evidence to support the idea that the Keith acquisition is part of a larger strategic plan.

Material Elvis

The Keith acquisition gives the Oilers LD prospects a two year window to become better than Keith. Hopefully it goes according to plan.

jp

I’ve seen no evidence to support the idea that the Keith acquisition is part of a larger strategic plan.

You may not agree it’s a good plan (apparently you don’t see it at all), but Keith is very clearly intended to help the Oilers best players take the next step.

To help the team start winning those close battle games like the ones they lost against the Jets and the Hawks.

leadfarmer

Lou just did the impossible. Dumped a contract and didnt take any salary back
The Kraken are just getting ignored!!!

RonnieB

Not impossible. Bowman did even better quite recently.

OriginalPouzar

The difference being that Keith is to provide material benefits to the team – both on and off the ice.

Of course, most don’t foresee what Holland does – time will tell.

pts2pndr

Did you get a retainer?😉

Keeper_13

Every time someone starts talking about “intangibles” and “leadership” and a “veteran presence in the room” and “teaching us what it takes to win” I think of Lucic and Ference. If I had the ear of the Oilers management I would tell them that if they think the lads need a sports psychologist, they should hire ten of them and let them have whichever one they have the best personal relationship with. They don’t count against the cap and they don’t take a spot on the 50 man roster. I don’t think this franchise uses its relative wealth, or the depth and expertise of its fanbase, to its advantage often enough.

OriginalPouzar

I’m not sure that the “intangibles” that Keith brings will make the difference that Holland thinks they will or will be worth the cap price being paid for them. I lean towards everyone else and think they won’t but what the hell do I know? Holland is the one that has helped build Stanley Cup winners, not me, or anyone else in here.

WIth that said, with respect to the noted “intangibles”, Keith is in another stratosphere than Lucic and, certainly, Ference.

Keeper_13

For sure. I think, as we create narratives about the playoffs, we struggle with our desire to believe that the games are decided by the skill and dedication of the players involved, like it was when we played hockey, while seeing plenty of evidence that in the playoffs, the clearly better team is defeated much more often than we expect. So we create the idea of “intangibles” as a way to make sense of this, and it fits perfectly into our very concept of storytelling. Somebody’s gotta make that dramatic speech in the locker room before we take the ice, right? How much is that speech worth?

If we need to invent the idea of “intangibles” and speculate about the “character” of players involved in order to explain which teams succeed in the playoffs, it is a tacit admission that we believe skill and determination are not the deciding factors.

Material Elvis

Tampa Bay had the most skilled team and won the last two Cups. Seems like a pretty good template to me.

OriginalPouzar

Lou paid handsomely to do so.

Fuhrious

Yikes, would hate to lose all those picks for a bad contract.

Last edited 1 month ago by Fuhrious
Harpers Hair

Depends what you spend the cleared cap space on.

Material Elvis

It might be worth it. Three good picks (still only 20% chance or less of becoming an NHLer for each pick) for a Neal contract. The Islanders are contenders and now have the chance to add another good player with the cap space. Lou is shrewd. It’s so frustrating to watch other GM’s make smart, incremental moves on a consistent basis. Holland has made some good moves during his Oilers tenure but his latest work has shaken my confidence. He needs to go back to focusing on value deals and emotionally detach from his possible acquisitions.

leadfarmer

Not too bad for a lot of cap flexibility
watch him get Landeskog now

Bulging Twine

He still needs to sign Pelech and Beauvilier (sp?)

Material Elvis

Lou will low ball them on bridge deals and they’ll submit.

David

Tyler Benson’s AHL production is in an entirely different stratosphere than prospects who never made it Curtis Hamilton and Ryan Martindale, or even the one who has carve red out a career Tyler Pitlick. He brought substantial AHL offence a couple years earlier in his career than Anton Lander, and even had a better 20 year old AHL season than the legend himself: Rob Schremp.

When you’ve got massive contracts already on the roster, and another big one on the way with Nurse (and a potential overpay for Larsson), AND your LW depth chart is Nuge and Shore and Neal, why would you throw away a LW prospect whose production at age 20 identified him as a potential NHL producer, and who will also be cheap for at least a couple years?

The mind boggles.

JOFA

Throw away?

Keeper_13

My guess is that the Oilers see the player for what he isn’t and are unable to value what he is enough to really assess whether he can add value to an NHL roster.

Harpers Hair

James Nichols (@JamesNicholsNYI) Tweeted:
Andrew Ladd is going to Arizona with picks attached, waiting to hear full details #isles

https://twitter.com/JamesNicholsNYI/status/1416490978110738437?s=20

Harpers Hair

James Nichols (@JamesNicholsNYI) Tweeted:
Once finalized, and if no salary retained, the #isles will have about $20M in spending money with Boychuk on LTIR.

https://twitter.com/JamesNicholsNYI/status/1416492128432271361?s=20

Randle McMurphy

Islanders have traded Andrew Ladd, a second round selection in 2021 NHL Draft (#60 originally the Colorado Avalanche selection), a second round selection in the 2022 NHL Draft and a conditional third round selection in the 2023 NHL Draft to the Arizona Coyotes.

Harpers Hair

Arthur Staple (@StapeAthletic) Tweeted:
The #Isles have moved Andrew Ladd to the Coyotes.

According to Pierre LeBrun and several others, the cost is a 2021 2nd, a conditional 2022 2nd and a conditional 2023 3rd.

A lot of futures, but #Isles need the cap space now.

https://twitter.com/StapeAthletic/status/1416495370562011139?s=20

leadfarmer

Some reports that Goodrow will get 6 year offers in Free agency. Gulp

Harpers Hair

One would think the Rangers had some intel on signing him before the trade.

leadfarmer

How would they? You have to trade for rights before negotiating except for the Kraken

Harpers Hair

Yeah right.

Thats why UFA signings are announced minutes after the window opens.

Speed dating on steroids.

OriginalPouzar

Of course some discussions happen but I don’t think its a ton for full-on negotiations.

Up and till very recently there was a negotiating window, the “legal tampering” – this was abolished last season and, as we saw, not many big signings early in the day and some big ones didn’t even happen until a few days in.

Harpers Hair

UFA signings minutes after the window opens have been going on for decades whether there was a negotiating window or not.

Last season was in the middle of a pandemic lockdown…hardly typical.

And, no one suggested “full on negotiations” but there are many ways to find out what a player and his agent are thinking without tampering….happens all the time.

How do you think the 5X5 offer for Larsson became public?

Did someone just make that up?

OriginalPouzar

I didn’t realize the pandemic changed the ability of agents and GMs to communicate – didn’t realize all the tampering was going on in person, presumably in dark allys.

What 5X5 offer? A GM telling an insider about an offer he may be willing to make is not an actual offer.

I have no doubt there have been some conversations but I don’t think JP Barry is having contract detail conversations with any GMs other than Ken Holland – well maybe Ron Francis now.

Keeper_13

That’s one of many rules the NHL often, but not always, ignores.

flyfish1168

Heiskanen signed for 67.6 Million over 8 yrs. AAV 8.45 hit. Does Nurse do something similar

godot10

Nurse is capped by Draisaitl’s $8.5.

I think Nurse signs 8 x $8 million.

Sierra

Why would Nurse’s contract be capped by a contract signed 4 years ago by a player who is not a defenseman?

Last edited 1 month ago by Sierra
leadfarmer

WOWW Mind blown
Blues will protect Barbashev and expose Tarasenko!!

Randle McMurphy

and replace Tarasenko with Landeskog.

Randle McMurphy

Poile got Cody Glass

Rich M

Poile is blowing up his core. He’s also talked to the Phelgms about Monahan and/or Gaudreau.

Randle McMurphy

I’m still getting over the fact that the Seattle franchise didn’t choose the name:

The Seattle Grunge.

Bohologo

I too had high hopes, but well whatever nevermind…

BornInAGretzkyJersey

I’m still disappointed they didn’t opt for the obvious choice: the Seattle Seamen.

The branding and marketing potential would be incredible.

Keeper_13

I think Grunge as a whole kind of got Stairwayed. I might hear Nirvana once a year, maybe. Weird how big that whole scene was, and how abruptly and completely it vanished. Maybe it’s just where I live and the stations I hear?

Randle McMurphy

2 Canadians in the top 7 for the closing round of The Open.

Conners in 4th place at -8 just 4 strokes off the lead

Hughes in a tie for 6th place at -7

Last edited 1 month ago by Randle McMurphy
Harpers Hair

Brennan Klak (@nhlupdate) Tweeted:
#TBLightning trade the UFA rights to Barclay Goodrow to #NYR for a 2022 7th round pick.

https://twitter.com/nhlupdate/status/1416484306872983552?s=20

leadfarmer

David Poile has squandered a defensive Corp that could compare to team Canada
that is impressive

russ99

Benson is draft +5, has slow boots and his 5×5 goals/game in the AHL aren’t very enticing.

Oilers fans overrate prospects and skill, Benson looks to me at best third line replacement value – while cheap. Not a huge loss, especially if we can move Kassian for a better fit.

Ryan

Except our left wing depth chart is Nugent-Hopkins then basically that’s it.

Dac189

Don’t worry, we’re about to give Hyman 6.5*7

BornInAGretzkyJersey

His speed doesn’t seem to prohibit him from getting to the play.

Clearly he’s not elite but I think his ‘slow boots’ are overstated.

Not every player in the league is a burner.

Sierra

his speed gets him to the play at an AHL level or an NHL level?

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Wow. Ellis to Philly. Patrick to Nashville and then Vegas.

Patrick will thrive in Vegas.

Last edited 1 month ago by Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve
Rich M

Poile is getting advice from Chiarelli. Maybe we can trade Koski straight up with no money retained for Boro Cop.

maudite

I was waiting for Patrick to shake loose and land somewhere…

My brain had me trying to figure out if I could structure a reasonable package around Yamamoto and jones for Patrick and maybe ghost (2 years left at 4.5 mil and Philly sounded like they could be looking to increase cap space)…Philly has pretty solid RW depth so likely no deal that way.

But RHC with promising FO% or potentially higher skill RW with more size. I would have been hard in hunt as upside could be pretty huge and cheap through next bridge contract.

Last edited 1 month ago by maudite
Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Serious question:
Does Katz have any real interest in winning?

Ben

In <pedigreed hockey man who knows about winning> we trust!

tcho

I would presume so… What prompts the question?

Rich M

Hearing Ryan Ellis to Philly for Nolan Patrick.

maudite

Except they end with….Cody glass? Wtf?

Harpers Hair

JJFresh (@JFreshHockey) Tweeted:
Jason Dickinson, traded to VAN, is an all-defence middle six forward who had some of the best scoring chance suppression numbers in the league this year. #Canucks https://t.co/CBPISwtuAt

https://twitter.com/JFreshHockey/status/1416475139890417665?s=2

Harpers Hair

Thomas Drance (@ThomasDrance) Tweeted:
Jason Dickinson to the #Canucks for a third-round pick, as first reported by @FriedgeHNIC.

https://twitter.com/ThomasDrance/status/1416475263202775040?s=20

JOFA

Nice pick-up.

Harpers Hair

26 year old 6’2” 200 3C.

leadfarmer

That Canucks team will knock that right out of him.

maudite

May not have had the right currency given how many picks we’ve bled out but a lot of solid cap efficient pieces moved right here that would have been pretty decent bets.

Even that bonus 3rd rounder Holland kicked in might have gotten a potential solution right here.

Harpers Hair

It’s a very significant move for the Canucks since there was speculation they might have to play JT Miller at 3C unless they could come up with a big 3C.

Getting one who has stellar defensive metrics for a 3rd round pick and a likely cap hit around $2 million is a huge win since it allows room to address another top 6 winger and help on D.

Ben

Say it out loud with me everyone:

Ron Francis, it’s time to Fill My Kraken! #fillmykraken

DBO

Jared McCann to TOR

From Friedman. Hate Dubas.

Ryan

Return is Filip Hallander and a 7th

wow.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Did you want Dubas to get him for free?

Harpers Hair

That. Is. A. Steal.

Ryan

Absolutely, wow.

Harpers Hair

Yep.

Evolving-Hockey (@EvolvingHockey) Tweeted:
Jared McCann is very good https://t.co/gXgZc7u0N7

https://twitter.com/EvolvingHockey/status/1416483576007249922?s=20

Primetime

Spector being very specific about 4x$3.9 for Larson when (not if) he signs. That would be great work by Holland, and true team commitment from Larson

tcho

I wish it was “when” too, but if OP posted accurately, Spec’s tweet was: “if/when.”

Primetime

yep, my mistake…

Dee Dee

“When” is collusion. “if/when” is not. One doesn’t want to be accused of collusion, right?

OriginalPouzar

I thought the specific nature of the AAV was notable.

maudite

-Sign Larsson and protect or fleece someone for decent defenseman they can’t justify protecting
-avoid albatross hunting season of UFA market, outside of maybe a 1 year overpay for a white whale LW or 3C
– make a solid bet on goalie that might be a decent 1A/1B type solution for next few years or sign UFA one
– dig through bargain bin after cap destroyed on most teams and upgrade strategically from their as best you can – see what level of solutions holloway/mcleod/Benson/Bouchard/maybe bro/sam provide you with up to maybe mid year.
-have flexibility after locking up nurse and improve next year another step

Preparing for a too much for too many Hyman signing at present.

Randle McMurphy

OK …. let’s count it down….

10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1….

That’s it fella’s hang up the phone.

OriginalPouzar

Mark Spector
@SportsnetSpec
Though deal is not done, Adam Larsson should come in at 4 x $3.9 M if/when he signs w/EDM. 
If he went to market, could probably push near Chris Tanev numbers ($4.5 M AAV).
Suspect he’ll stay as a leader and core player in EDM tho.

defmn

He’s written similar in several columns the last few weeks.

leadfarmer

Ha!! Everyone is playing keep away from Seattle.

jimdewger

Their team has got quite a lot worse during the last 24 hours

maudite

Even the fact that this isn’t the moment where a deal for Keith is finalized pisses me off.

Not crucial enough deal that it was worth not waiting until as little time possible before bowman had to submit his protection list and you are also having talks with other teams who are looking at leaving their 4th best defenseman exposed (all of them left side basically). No one else would be in running to snatch him up prior to deadline (compound that with fact he likely wouldn’t waive to a trade basically anywhere else anyway)

Sorry LT. That deal just crushed a lot of positive hope for this fan. I’ll try to stop stewing on it in writing.

Last edited 1 month ago by maudite
Ryan

You think he could just sit on the sidelines and smoke out Stan Bowman?

maudite

Either that or let bowman see the obvious smoke signals hitting the air about the glut market on LD being up for sake given market glut prior to draft deadline.

Hell maybe Holland might even go check out some of those signal fires and maybe find a different option that is as good or better fit – factoring cap efficiency and upside.

The closer to deadline it gets the closer bowman is to losing another defenseman he was preferring to keep.

Last edited 1 month ago by maudite
Ryan

I was just quoting Holland, lol. 🙂

maudite

I wish someone would’ve answered his question with “quite likely yes”

OriginalPouzar

Holland wanted Duncan Keith, end stop.

Holland didn’t want the likes of Graves, Leddy, Sutter, Ellis, etc. instead of Duncan Keith.

Those players don’t have the “attributes” that Holland was putting material value on – he wanted the 3 Stanley Cups and Conn Smyth trophy – those “attributes” were an important part of the Keith-package for Holland.

Now, of course, almost no one agrees with Holland on the value he’s placed on these attributes but that is the player he wanted and waiting or checking the other d-men available wasn’t part of getting that player.

pts2pndr

This was not a hill to die on. I have no problem with the acquisition! Unless Keith proves to be the saviour Holland’s proves to be the dupe and it’s just that simple!

fistycuff

^100%

pts2pndr

There is a marked difference between wants and needs! Explained the same to my teenagers! While I understand that logic and basic common sense are getting more rare they are both basic qualities required in a competent manager!

Keeper_13

My pet theory – “common sense” was a term coined by the nobility back in feudalistic days and was used derisively, as in, “even a commoner would know that,” or maybe “you know it’s weird how those peasants can be so stupid while also sometimes being clever… do you think they have some kind of commoner sense?”
Why have I come up with this theory, and why do I maintain it with no evidence? Because based on what I know about humanity, there has never been a point in time where “common sense” was actually “common.”

maudite

Wait and see? Wait for what? The deal is not a strong one nor, I propose, negotiated to max of strategic advantage.

“Holland wanted Keith full stop” is exactly what is so brutal about this.

Your following prose is useless after that.

pts2pndr

Yes he held all the cards! Anyone that thinks different hasn’t played hardball in the real world. Worse case scenario has Holland walking away with what was a predictively a surplus of left shot D becoming available. There is no defence for Holland’s overpay!

fistycuff

I’m guessing Ryan was not getting his sarcasm through?

pts2pndr

Like many, just frustrated at the overpay and lack of foresight! Experienced GM should not make these kind of mistakes. Caveat is Holland pressured due real dollars and not cap!

Keeper_13

There should be a sarcasm font.

Material Elvis

I prefer a siege where you would starve him out.

OriginalPouzar

Larsson missed a few months with a broken bone blocking a shot and, what, a total of 10 games with in his Oiler career with a bad back.

In my opinion, injuries are not a real concern for Larsson – there doesn’t seem to be any real evidence of chronic back issues.

Now, Zack Hyman, coming of ACL surgery and then missing time with another knee injury (and not playing well upon his return)…….

—————

Let’s not get ahead of ourselves here, Tyler Benson isn’t the next Ryan Smyth. However, the Oilers don’t know what he is yet, having deployed him in just seven NHL games.

Josh Archibald can be replaced in free agency, Zack Kassian’s contract means he won’t be chosen and even if he was those dollars could be used elsewhere.

$3.2M X 3 can buy so much more than what Kass has brought since 2019. I don’t think the Kraken will take him but they should be give then chance – they won’t.

I like me some Josh Archibald – he was GF% positive with Khaira last season – I still expose him over Benson.

Sail on Tyler Benson – potentially saved only by a Khaun reach!

JOFA

Benson is not going anywhere unfortunately. Khaira is the pick.

Keeper_13

I like Archibald a lot, but I’d protect Khaira ahead of him and Benson ahead of Khaira, while realizing that Benson still might not work out.

Keeper_13

I think that some of the games last season where Larson was not posting great results were games he was playing through back pain.

OriginalPouzar

Maybe but maybe he was just getting back up to speed after missing the first few months with a broken foot.

Of note, Larsson was excellent down the stretch in 2019/20 – for the last two months of the season – his great 2021 season was a continuation of 2020.

It doesn’t appear to me that the 28 year old has any sort of chronic back issues.

defmn

Kevin Kurz
@KKurzNHL
· 12m
I’m told Sharks are getting close to acquiring another goalie. Sounds like it’s going to happen before the 12 noon PT deadline

Rich M

Aiden Hill from AZ

defmn

Kevin Kurz
@KKurzNHL
· 8m
The Sharks have acquired goalie Adin Hill from Arizona. Don’t have full details yet but return is believed to be a draft pick next year and a prospect

Harpers Hair

CapFriendly (@CapFriendly) Tweeted:
Arizona had 2 goalies who meet the minimum exposure requirements, and the club must expose at least one. Adin Hill was one of those goalies and Darcy Keumper was the other. Korenar, who also meets the min req, coming back the other way was necessary in order to protect Keumper.

https://twitter.com/CapFriendly/status/1416466752444243973?s=20

Harpers Hair

Bruce Garrioch (@SunGarrioch) Tweeted:
Told the Winnipeg Jets are trying to move forward Mason Appleton #nhljets

https://twitter.com/SunGarrioch/status/1416454906161029125?s=20

Harpers Hair

There is your #3C right there.

maudite

Definitely worth a flyer

Harpers Hair

6’2” right shot centre.

Whats not to like?

maudite

He isn’t over 35
He will definitely outplay his caphit
He hasn’t won any Stanley cups

?

Last edited 1 month ago by maudite
Randle McMurphy

Winnipeg never played him as a center.

Scungilli Slushy

I’ve been pondering LW with Nuge being signed.

Defensmen and goalies take time to get established as solid players. Yes Makar is a savant, but still that doesn’t mean he’s rock solid defensively.

D is hard. Quinn is struggling, he’s still a wildly talented player, but he’s young and small.

It is different for skill forwards. Especially ones that come with a defensive game already. Therefore locking up a swell LW long term could be a very bad decision, unless Holloway is penciled in as a C.

I have thought about that, and I doubt it. They will want him in the top 6 because if his tool bag. Big, fast, skilled, driven.

Its a risk to slot him in this year. But next year I almost guarantee it.

So no playoffs Tatar, on a good for him one year, and look at things next off season.

After listening to Gregor and that US players stay south, there will likely be no Coleman, no Saab.

Landeskog is a bad cap management idea, you can’t pay the 4th forward more than Nuge and you can’t have too many high cap F when you are paying Connor and Leon.

Good but cheaper LW and spend on the 3C and get a better goalie. And don’t overpay or over term Smitty. He had a good season but let’s get real.

Last edited 1 month ago by Scungilli Slushy
Harpers Hair

Jonathan Willis (@JonathanWillis) Tweeted:
Just playing with the numbers here, if the Oilers:
– bury Neal and Turris
– keep Koskinen as No. 2 G
– run McLeod as No. 3 C
– LTIR Klefbom
– lose Benson to Seattle
They can probably sign Yamamoto, Kahun & Khaira and still have ~$13.5MM for a LW, G & Larsson.

https://twitter.com/JonathanWillis/status/1416458894361063427?s=20

BornInAGretzkyJersey

I’d rather an established 3C than rush McLeod.

Not sure burying Neal makes much sense when we could buy him out to pay for the 3C. And I’m averse to buyouts.

pts2pndr

With the brilliance, what is the plan for re-signing Nurse, Yamamoto and JP all requiring a raise?