Between the Buttons

by Lowetide

Things are happening fast so I’m going to get the draft stuff out when we have quiet moments over the next few days. This is the McDavid cluster, the center being Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse and one hopes Jesse Puljujarvi, Ethan Bear and others. Over the next several years, adding players who deliver more than surrendered at an efficient cost is vital.

On the other end of the roster, the organization has to keep finding talent to feed into the system. A player drafted this summer won’t be turning pro until 2023 and might not contribute until 2025. Edmonton will need players of value pushing through the system, and that first round pick this year is going to be important. Trading it remains an option and an understandable possibility, but if the club uses it, getting max value will be a must.

THE ATHLETIC!

I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here’s the latest!

CRAIG BUTTON’S FINAL LIST (LT)

I’ve been curious all year about what my final list would look like against the experts. I’m no scout, all I have is math, and the formulas from Gabe Desjardins, Rob Vollman and Christian Roatis.

So a season without the normal math made things difficult. I have Button’s list surrounded, four names in his top 30 are ranked outside the first round on my list. Button is a respected scout and I think an NHL team should value what he brings. Pleased to see he likes Zachary L’Heureux as much as me.

LOWETIDE OILERS MOCK

I like to do this with the public lists (basically the Button and McKenzie) and then will rank those two plus Pronman, Wheeler and Red Line after the draft. Here is my list placed against the Button list, with my highest pick not on Button’s list being the Oilers selection at the designated number. Button’s list is only 75 deep, but we usually get a full deck and this year is such a wild draft one suspects a full boat again. My list is here.

  • No. 19 overall: LC Nikita Chibrikov, St. Petersburg. Small skill forward can stickhandle in a phone booth. Massive U18’s in Texas. He’s 5.10, 161 and a February 2003, he plays center and wing suspect he’ll land as a winger. Fast as lightning, one dimensional, will have to improve play without the puck.
  • No. 116 overall: RW Olivier Nadeau, Shawinigan Cataractes More bull than beauty, he is effective. Big power winger with plus skills, he works hard and has two-way acumen. Foot speed is just average, but he has great balance. I’m not sure if the Oilers will draft him but the QMJHL is loaded with good prospects and it’s possible we see Edmonton add someone from that league this year.
  • No. 180 overall: LW Eric Alarie, Moose Jaw Warriors 6.01, 196. Big PF with plus skill. Reports on his skating are good and no one is ranking him. What does that mean? He’s either going to be a draft steal or there’s something I’m missing about this player. I have him No. 24, I’ll be interested to see where he lands.
  • No. 186 overall: RC Ryder Korczak, Moose Jaw Warriors A top play-making center in the WHL. Good speed, elusive. This wasn’t a plan, drafting Moose Jaw Warriors, and he’s the opposite of Alarie (Korczak is small and plays with high energy. His scouting report is vaguely similar to Tyler Tullio.
  • No. 212 overall: LW Conner Roulette, Seattle Thunderbirds He has good hands/speed, has a sixth sense for offense. Aggressive and is dogged on the puck. I have him No. 32, this draft is nuts.

HOLLAND’S FREE-AGENT SIGNINGS WITH THE OILERS

Since arriving in Edmonton, the best moves made by Ken Holland have come via free agency. The best move was getting restricted free agent Jesse Puljujarvi to sign a two-year value deal. After that, unrestricted signings of Tyson Barrie, Mike Smith and Dominik Kahun rank with the drafting of Dylan Holloway and trade for James Neal.

Holland has plenty of cash to spend and some attractive options out there. He could deliver a solid veteran team with the moves still available.

This sends Mikko Koskinen to Nashville for Mark Borowiecki, who is off to the minors. James Neal bought out, Kyle Turris in the AHL. The more I stare at free agency, the more Nuge is the best option for No. 3 center. I’d love to see a more skilled third-line right winger, but there’s too much month at the end of the money.

Larsson gets signed, I added Koekkoek because some of you are picking away at poor William Lagesson. Goaltending costs $6 million all in. There’s $1.3 million in cap room, Klefbom on LTIR and Holland will be looking for Dmitri Samorukov by mid-season. There are 22 names on the roster.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN 1260, we kickstart the weekend with a great lineup. Tyler Wright, Edmonton Oilers Director of Amateur Scouting, will join us at 10:20 to talk about the 2021 draft and what the organization sees in this year’s pool of talent. Steve Lansky from Inside the Truck podcast will chime in from Waterton about the British Open, the Blue Jays and Edmonton’s possible acquisition of Zach Hyman. Matthew Iwanyk from TSN1260 will talk Edmonton Elks, Oilers and TSN1260’s coverage of the 2021 draft. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!!

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PerryK

Great article on the Athletic today. The 5 finds out side NHL. I hope you shared with Mr. Wright yesterday. Great picks.

jp

OP and Keeper_13.

A little more on how impressive Kassian’s 19-20 season was.

5v5 points in the last 2 seasons for Kassian and the main UFAs that have been discussed for the Oilers (I may be forgetting some). GP and PTS for all of them over the last 2 seasons.

Kassian
19-20 59 32
20-21 27 5
Total 86 37 0.43/GP

Tatar
19-20 68 39
20-21 50 21
Total 118 60 0.51/GP

Landeskog
19-20 54 22
20-21 54 32
Total 108 54 0.50/GP

Hyman
19-20 51 24
20-21 43 23
Total 94 47 0.50/GP

Saad
19-20 58 27
20-21 44 20
Total 102 47 0.46/GP

Hall
19-20 65 30
20-21 53 22
Total 118 52 0.44/GP

Schwartz
19-20 71 32
20-21 40 15
Total 111 47 0.42/GP

Coleman
19-20 66 24
20-21 55 23
Total 121 47 0.39/GP

Granlund
19-20 63 20
20-21 51 18
Total 114 38 0.33/GP

I’ll spare the commentary. It’s an interesting list to look at even aside from Kassian.

Keeper_13

Off topic question: in your opinion, how does the practice of paying out a fired GMs contract in full change the game theory for NHL GMs?

I surprised myself with a big rant about how “if GMs had to sink or swim on their own merits, like working people do, they would make better choices and manage their teams’ assets more wisely.”

Then the rant was so disjointed and such a mess that I realized I have not thought about this enough and figured I’d just ask.

David

Speaking as someone who almost always sides with the owner/team vs the players (if that means anything here), I like that the NHL has guaranteed contracts for the players, but I wish that GM’s and Coaches that got fired had the contract terminated. Not trying to be a grinch, I just don’t really understand the reason why they keep getting paid, and yes I think it would change the incentives. Would help with struggling owners as well. But maybe I haven’t thought it through well enough.

Victoria Oil

I actually think that GM’s contracts should be structured so that some of their compensation is deferred and there is a bonus for the next few years after they leave based on how the team performs in the future.This might mitigate a GM’s tendency to adopt a ‘win now at all costs’ mentality leaving the team with a steaming pile of poop after they leave.

Last edited 8 days ago by Victoria Oil
Keeper_13

I like this idea and want to see it happen. When I start my own hockey league you can be Commissioner 🙂

Victoria Oil

Done deal. I come cheap. As long as I can have a department of player safety that has some teeth and nobody calls me Buttman. 🙂

jtblack

Workers might sink or swim But all executives in Public and Private sector always get paid upon exit. If the gurantee wasn’t there, the talent migrates elsewhere (diff teams, diff industry, etc)

Keeper_13

Only if there is another place for that talent to go. Where will NHL GMs go? Haha the KHL will be poaching our GMs and our teams will get so much better!

MushedPeas

Exactly.

jp

in your opinion, how does the practice of paying out a fired GMs contract in full change the game theory for NHL GMs?

I don’t think it changes it a ton because I imagine these guys generally want to keep working in their profession more than getting paid the last 2-3 years of a failed contract.

Fans, owners, managers and players (see LA and Chicago where players are pushing to speed up re-builds ahead of schedule) all want to ‘win now’. There’s pressure from everywhere to ice a competitive team, I think that’s the bigger factor in GMs willing to take risks on the UFA market.

As an aside, there are very few successful teams who get there without using the ‘UFA overpay’ as part of their team building. There are exceptions, but I don’t think successful teams avoiding ‘silly season’ is at all the rule.

jtblack

YZERMAN is just starting to put the pieces together in Det. He sat on his hands for 2 years.

Vrana
Leddy
I am sure he will add a few more pieces to surround his younger guys.

They are nowhere near the same stage as Edm. DET is just getting started guessing Yzerman has a 2 -3 yr plan to be very competitive

Last edited 8 days ago by jtblack
innercitysmytty

Is Leddy still serviceable?

leadfarmer

A poor mans version of Barrie

jp

He’ll also likely walk at the end of the year.

leadfarmer

Probably gets flipped at the deadline for a pick. So probably ends up breaking even. But should have done better

jp

Yes, good point about being flipped for a pick. And the market, well it doesn’t seem like it’s what it was supposed to be.

OriginalPouzar

Hyman – $6M plus for term – market seems to be there

Landeskog – Apparantly seeking $9M-$10M on the market

Larsson – Accounts of a team ready to offer $5M X 5

What is happening?

Keeper_13

Free agency is silly season, and GMs are strangely incentivized. They are praised when their moves work and if they don’t work they aren’t allowed to come to work anymore but they still get paid. If I knew that if I made at mess at work someone else would have to clean it up and I’d get paid time off, I would behave differently at work.
I know people say the word “fired” when describing a GM being let go, but I can’t view it as firing when they still get paid in full for the duration of their contract. That’s not how being “fired” works in the real world.

OriginalPouzar

Last year it seemed managers were a bit more reserved with the flat cap and as much as cap space is a currency this season, it looks like its almost normal times.

Last year the top d-man (Pieterangelo) got a legit contract but it was reasonable and the top forward got $8M but only 1 year. Very few players got more than 4 years.

We aren’t there yet this year but it looks like top end is going to get paid for term. The middle and bottom are going to get squeezed – there isn’t that much cap space in the league.

jtblack

It’s a good observation. Called stars and scrubs.

TEAMS pay their core and then fill in the blanks with ELC; CHEAP vets and replacement level players …

GOOD players still get paid; jist squeezes the bottom guys even more

Harpers Hair

Hearing Hyman is interested in signing in Calgary and the team that is ready to offer Larsson 5X5 is Winnipeg.

OriginalPouzar

I’d be enthused if the flams signed Hyman to anything near the reported contract.

Would suck to lose Larsson but that contract is silly so better the Jets than the Oilers – I still think Larsson re-signs (for the prior speculated amount) but, if he’s gone, well, Holland will have more work to do (but another apx $4M to work with).

flyfish1168

KH circles back to Barrie if Larsson is gone

Keeper_13

Larsson would fit in Winnipeg like a finger in a glove.

misfit

Protecting Kassian over Benson would be a bad move, but I get it. NHL GMs value what he brings, and even though he is overpaid, there aren’t many players like him who have shown they can play in an NHL top 9 (whether or not he actually can is another thing completely).

But protecting Archibald over Benson? That one doesn’t make any sense at all. And I love Archie!

But I would protect both Khaira and Benson leaving both Kass and Archbald exposed, so what do I know?

OriginalPouzar

GMs value what Kassian once brought, from time to time. Hasn’t brought it in quite a while.

Keeper_13

I would leave Kassian unprotected and dance a jig if they took him. Has he given us 20 quality games in the last 2 seasons, including playoffs? Imagine if you gave an employee a big raise, and he just stopped coming to work ready for work.

OriginalPouzar

and most of those games were in the 2019 portion of 2019/20.

Last season, and playoffs, how many quality games, 3?

I don’t think I’m being overly harsh with that number either.

innercitysmytty

I haven’t looked at the splits precisely, but a very high percentage of his poor stretch of games have been played with no fans in the building. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think that’s impacted him more than most players given his style of play. I still don’t think his contract is great, but I think he provides more value than he has when there are fans in the building. He still has the wheels and enough skill to think it’s reasonable he’s in the 15-15-30 range on the third line.

OriginalPouzar

I absolutely hate that excuse that he needs fans in the stands – maybe its true but, even if it is, that’s a terrible excuse – you are a pro athlete making $3M plus per season – find a way – the rest of the league has.

flyfish1168

He has a problem between the ears

JimmyV1965

I agree. Such a poor excuse

Dac189

The season before this one was actually his career high.
59gp 15g-19a-34p
That’s about the same as Blake Coleman’s 55 14-17-31 that is about to get him paid

This season he spent either on the 4th line or injured so his numbers dropped.
I think he will do well if given a shot in Seattle

Last edited 8 days ago by Dac189
OriginalPouzar

He spent the year on the 4th line after:

  • losing his top 6 spot down the stretch in 2020
  • being gifted the top 6 spot to start the 2020 play-in and losing it
  • being fitted the tip 6 spot to start 2021 and losing it

Kass’ most common linemate in 2021 was McDavid (then Haas, Turris, Nuge) – all over the place.

In any event, there was a stretch where he had two shot attempts in like a dozen games – shot attemps.

Dac189

His play dropped immediately after signing that contract. In my mind there’s three possible reasons.
1. Coincidence
2. Stopped once he got his paycheck
3. Pressure/stress from going from fan favorite to problem contract that needs to be rid of.

We saw somewhat of a resurgence from Lucic when he moved to Calgary. While he went from enemy #1 to appreciated by the fanbase.

Of course, I could be 100% wrong

Genjutsu

Injuries and covid probably big factors in his decline in play.

I’m not sure how wise it is to read too much into dips in performance during the pandemic.

Harpers Hair

@andystrickland

Told Gabriel Landeskog could be asking for a salary that pays in the range of $9-$10M in the open market. He’s willing to give Colorado a hometown discount but the Avs will need to up from their last offer which came in in the $5-$6 range on a 8 yr term.

Harpers Hair

Just looking at Detroit’s cap situation after they acquired Leddy.

Yzerman is taking it right down to the studs…of their current roster players, only ONE is signed for 2021-22…Dylan Larkin.

The Wings currently have $44 million in cap space rising to $71 million next offseason.

Since their roster currently is only 10 players, they will have to sign free agents or promote some of their recent draft picks but they are in a prime position to put the screws to anyone who needs to offload a short term bad contract.

Also of note, after trading the 2nd round pick acquired from the Oilers, the Wings still have 2 picks in each of the first 5 rounds and another in the 6th round for a total of 11.

Randle McMurphy

To understand this little rhyme
You must tap your foot in time
Then the buttons come much nearer
And the stones you see more clearer.

Harpers Hair

Jim Matheson
@jimmathesonnhl

Connor McDavid would remember how good Hyman was defensively and offensively against Oilers in three-game Leaf romp over Edm this season. Most noticeable Leaf. If term he wants is too long, Schwartz and Saad fall-backs. Saad U.S. born. They often don’t like to play in Canada

Harpers Hair

comment image
Jim Matheson
@jimmathesonnhl
·
56m

Connor McDavid would remember how good Hyman was defensively and offensively against Oilers in three-game Leaf romp over Edm this season. Most noticeable Leaf. If term he wants is too long, Schwartz and Saad fall-backs. Saad U.S. born. They often don’t like to play in Canada

OriginalPouzar

Justin Holl also had good games defending McDavid……

Matty should give credit to Gregor on the US players rarely signing in Canada – he’s been banging the drum all week.

jp

Justin Holl also had good games defending McDavid……

Holl would be a really nice add actually. Not that they’re interested in moving him.

Minister D-

Is McDavid the GM now? Good grief.

leadfarmer

Holy crap overpayment for Leddy

leadfarmer

Panik and our 2nd round pick that they got?
Yzerman what was your first offer?

Ryan

They used our former second-round pick.

Last edited 8 days ago by Ryan
leadfarmer

50% retention by Yzerman too. Wowzers

Harpers Hair

Likely more to the story.

Harpers Hair

@PuckPedia
·
31m

After trading Leddy for Panik & 2nd (saving $4.125M Cap Hit), #Islecomment image have $8.5M Cap Space w/ 17 players on Proj Roster (12F/4D/1G) w/ Ladd/Hickey buried.
Boychuk to LTIR allows #Islecomment image to pot. exceed cap by $6M

RFA: Beauvillier, Dal Colle, Pelech, Sorokin

Harpers Hair

@JonathanWillis
·
41m

That Leddy deal is tough to compare straight to Keith – it really depends if you think Panik at 50% is an asset (I’d say -ish, like Koskinen at 50%) – but it does highlight how hard it is to move a $5.5MM defenceman, even for one year, without taking cap hit back.

GordieHoweHatTrick

Lou teaching Kenny’s boy how to lick boot??

YKOil

Like McCann.

Don’t mind Smith at 2 years if the AAV is below 1.5m and there is no NMC. Sure there will be bonuses but being able to sit him in the minors in year 2, with minimal Cap consequence, is fine with me. Once the Cap hit gets above $200k or so I have some issues.

Hyman at $6m a year over 7 years as a ‘thing’… that’s a Chia move right there. Horrible move.

Would be sad to lose Larsson. But, if I’m Larsson and they are trying to grind me down after overpaying for Keith in both trade assets and salary and Cap… then why would I try to help the Oilers out? Let’s hope Larsson LOVES it here.

OriginalPouzar

Smith will be on a 35 plus contract – I don’t think there is cap relief if a player on a multi-year plus 35 contract is assigned to the AHL (or if he retires). I believe the MOU for the new CBA changed some of the nuances for 35 plus contracts so I would need to check to confirm.

DevilsLettuce

Booooo Larsson

leadfarmer

I’m sure he is intrigued like “Sakic why the hell you want me”

Harpers Hair

He would be a fabulous #3 D at the right price.

leadfarmer

What happened to all those prospects you keep yapping about?

godot10

Toews, Girard, Byram.

Looks like Suter is targetting the AHL (unless Girard is going for Jones).

Harpers Hair
godot10

For those who don’t remember, Gillis was one of the guys who fought a lonely fight against Alan Eagleson, who stole the proceeds of Gillis’s disability insurance.

Harpers Hair

Among many other larcenies.

David

Set to the tune of the 12 days of Christmas, here is the 7 days of free agency. I only felt like doing 7 days for a nice round week (had to really crunch some words together):

On the seventh day of free agency our GM gave to us
Seven boat anchor contracts
Six future buyouts
MILAN LUCIC
Four suspiciousLTIRdiagnoses
Three has beens
Two problemsforthenextGM
And no more money to sign our RFAs

What a horrible way to build a team.

OriginalPouzar

Looks like Nugent-Bowman spoke with Holland today:

https://theathletic.com/2711637/2021/07/16/what-im-hearing-on-the-oilers-offseason-2-0-adam-larsson-and-free-agency-whos-on-the-expansion-list/

Lots of great info but, of course, just a couple of nuggets for now:

1) Things gloomier on the Larsson re-sign – may very well be testing free agency.
2) Marody will be qualified (article provides info on all of the RFAs in that regard).

Keeper_13

Good to see the organization values Marody, would have liked to see him get some at-bats last season.

wood99

Just at spitballing,is there a trade to be made with Pittsburg. I know McCann has been mentioned but I thing we should add Jarry on their end we add Benson on ours. I know Jarry had a tough playoff but he is still young. I think we have to look at him like Carter Hart in Philly. I don’t think they are going to give up on him yet. I think Jarry is a risk worth taking…thoughts

wood99

Kassian as well for the Oilers 🙂

Revolved

I’ve been tracking line stability at 5×5 across the NHL for a few years now. To do this, I just look at the percentage of time each team’s top two centres play with their top two line mates. For example, McDavid played 938 minutes – 553 with Puljujarvi and 391 with RNH, while Draisaitl played 910 – 578 with Yamamoto and 343 with McDavid. This gives an average of 50.5% of their time with their top two line mates. Here are the results from this year:

Vegas Golden Knights 80.3
Pittsburgh Penguins 70.0
Boston Bruins 66.4
Colorado Avalanche 61.9
Minnesota Wild 60.7
New York Rangers 58.5
San Jose Sharks 57.8
New York Islanders 57.3
Florida Panthers 57.0
Calgary Flames 54.7
Toronto Maple Leafs 54.3
Los Angeles Kings 53.6
Carolina Hurricanes 53.5
Tampa Bay Lightning 53.5
Dallas Stars 53.1
Vancouver Canucks 52.9
Nashville Predators 52.6
St Louis Blues 52.2
New Jersey Devils 51.7
Montreal Canadiens 50.6
Edmonton Oilers 50.5
Buffalo Sabres 50.0
Anaheim Ducks 50.0
Ottawa Senators 49.0
Chicago Blackhawks 45.4
Winnipeg Jets 44.8
Philadelphia Flyers 44.0
Columbus Blue Jackets41.7
Washington Capitals 40.0
Detroit Red Wings 37.9
Arizona Coyotes 32.4

You will notice that there are lots of good teams at the top and lots of bad teams at the bottom. In 17-18 and 18-19 I found a correlation between line stability and rank in the standings of 0.554 and 0.524, respectively, and this year it works out to 0.559. So this metric continues to be a strong predictor of winning, even though there is no direct connection between them since this is not a results based metric like CF% or GF%.

What this says to me is that coaches need to have the courage of their convictions and not try to juggle their lines to get better results. I was furious when Tippett went away from his original line up after losing game 1 to the Jets. They owned that game and I expect things would have turned out better in the series if he had stuck with them.

dustrock

Agreed. I thought we had seen the last of the MacBlender, but alas.

Gollum

Typical of many statistics, this doesn’t show causation. It could just as likely be that because these line combos work well for their teams that the coach chooses not to mess with success. I would assume that the more winning a team does the less line scrambling they do.

Revolved

I agree, it’s a chicken and egg situation. Coaches clearly mix things up to try and find a winning combination when they’re losing. But the question remains – should they do this? I don’t think so, and the data supports this.

David

Completely agree. This has been an issue on the Oilers for years, lasting multiple coaching staffs. Give players more consistent linemates in order to build chemistry.

On a related note, one of the items Gregor noted about Keith last season was not playing major minutes with the same partner.

I’ve paid attention for years to what players say about consistency and chemistry with linemates and the message is as simple as it is obvious. It really helps.

JOFA

Expansion draft :

-Schremp stays
-Khaira picked

Randle McMurphy

I’m just praying Holland will stay cool, calm and collected.

Last edited 9 days ago by Randle McMurphy
Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Free agency should be “interesting” (read: terrifying). The reported asks by top free agents are egregious. Hyman wants 6 million per season. Are you kidding? Landeskog wants 9-10 million. WTAF.

I hope Holland plans a nice vacation for the first few days of free agency. Maybe he can attend a short webinar on small ball trades and leverage.

LMHF#1

Random UFA moonshot – The last 2 shortened seasons have made it a lot less likely that Ovechkin will catch 99’s goal scoring record. His best shot would be on 97’s wing though.

If he makes it to UFA, you make that call and that pitch.

4 years on Connor’s wing would probably do it.

Last edited 9 days ago by LMHF#1
OriginalPouzar

I have no doubt the Ovechkin signs with the Cap after the expansion draft and before July 28.

With that said, I have near “speculation” about 3-years and $9M plus……

Material Elvis

Ovechkin has stated that he will only play for two teams: Washington Capitals and Moscow Dynamo. Maybe McDavid would change his mind but he sounded firm on that idea.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

LT, yesterday you said something to the effect of the Sportlogiq data you’ve seen paints Keith in a positive light.

This post got no attention and I have so many questions. That said, I’ll do my best to be brief.

– Do you have access or is this coming from publicly available sources like Sportsnet article, TV, and so on?

– What did the Oracle say about Keith?

– From the data you’ve seen, or from having talked to folks in the loop, what strikes you about their data that is particularly advanced compared to open source analytics?

Fuhrious

There was a link to an article written by their staff in (I think) yesterday’s thread. The author stated Keith could still help a team, but the article notably did not support the claim—it just listed a bunch of things without weighting them.

Paddy Morans Jockstrap

LW is similar to LD for us, and the solution is the same, get a guy with a year or two on his contract. This will boost the top 6 and the right guy can mentor the kids but not block them. All well and good to sign Hall or Hyman, but what happens in 2 years when Holloway is better and needs a contract? Koskinen for JVR? Something like that. Just better not protect Archie over Benson or I might break something.

David

With you 100%. That is why I would like to see someone like Hoffman or Tatar because I think (or hope) that they would accept a short deal, possible only a 1 year show me, but that is preferable to these 5-7 year deals that are >95% likely to be regretted.

OriginalPouzar

The one “top 6 LW” that may sign for less term is……. Thomas Tatar.

He makes so much sense to me as a stop gap to Holloway, Lavoie, etc.

Eh Team

100% with you on Tatar. But he’s going to be undervalued. That opposite of Holland’s tendencies.

dustrock

Stauffer thinks the Oilers list is: McDavid, Draisaitl, RNH, Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, Kassian, Archibald, Nurse, Keith, Bear, and Skinner.

Can someone explain to me why we would protect Kassian? In what world does that make sense?

JOFA

Duncan Keith approved😉

Victoria Oil

I heard that as well. I understand the need for team toughness, but if Holland protects Kassian over Benson, I will lose my shit. If there is even a tiny chance you can unload that 3 × $3.2 million contract without a sweetener, you have to grab it.

I’m not sure Holland understands that the NHL is a spending efficiency contest.

David

There is no justification for not protecting Benson.

JOFA

Not even Europe knocking at the door?

pts2pndr

I think they will rely heavily on what the coaching staff in Bakersfield says about the young man!

pts2pndr

Love the spending efficiency contest! Well stated!

Victoria Oil

The ‘spending efficiency contest’ (or something similar) was a quote I read from Woodguy a few years ago. It was a simple and elegant way to describe the NHL with the salary cap in place.

godot10

Protecting Kassian only makes sense if they have a pre-arranged trade in place to send him away.

Otherwise it is a mistake to protect him.

OriginalPouzar

I agree that it will be a mistake to protect him. Holland almost assuredly values Kassian at his current contract terms – its disappointing.

Keeper_13

Strange, too. Most people would look at Kassian’s spot on the depth chart, his stats over the past couple of years, and then look at his contract and say “losing him would be addition by subtraction.”

OriginalPouzar

I have zero doubt that is the list.

Have been saying for days now that both Archie and Kassian will be protected over Benson and expressed how much I disagree with it but I very confident it will be so.

I think Holland values Kassian including on his current contract.

I know that some think that Kassian is tradeable and Eastern teams will acquire him and his contract because of Tom Wilson.

Some do think that Kassian can be traded straight up for value.

I do think that Kassian could be traded but not straight up – I think Holland would need to retain $750K – $1M in order to trade Kassian. I could be wrong but, if other teams have done their diligence, they will see that Kassian hasn’t been protected anyone but himself in since 2019.

I would love to trade Kassian, even for no return – I love 2019 Kassian but, its 2021/22 coming up, 2019 was a long time ago and $3.2M X 3 buys quite a bit these days.

I’m not even sure Francis would take Kass in the expansion draft for free but I would like him to have the opportunity – I don’t think Holland gives him one (i.e. Holland values Kassian differently than I do).

Magnus

Kassian for McCann. Kassian only makes under $300,000 more.

Ryan

What about the Rangers?

OriginalPouzar

I think the verbal that the Rangers want Kassian because of Tom Wilson is massively over-blown. Sure, with $1M retained, they would probably be happy to bring in Kass for a nominal return.

jp

We watch him all the time and know he probably shouldn’t be making $3.2M. But maybe we should step back and look at Kassian here. (What other teams might see)

He had a GREAT 1st 2/3 of 19-20. So much so that he was still in the top 60 5v5 scorers at the end of the year. He truly wasn’t bad (P/60) after signing his deal either, considering the games missed and who he played with.

Then he had a bad play-in and a brutal year this year. Missed more than half the season with injury, never got traction when he did play.

But lots of players have tough years where injury, plus whatever, means nothing goes right. It would be easy to make excuses and shrug this season off if one wanted to. But 19-20, that was a hell of a season..

Sure, it was as 2nd (3rd?) wheel to McDavid, but at least you know the guy can play with skill.

Looking at Kassian’s most recent 2 seasons impartiality:
-He’s scored 1.88 5v5 P/60 (109th of the most used 400 forwards).
-He was over 50%GF at 5v5
-He was a positive rel to team in GF% and almost all the other metrics.

I dunno, I think I just convinced myself that Kassian should be tradable.

And we’d probably be wanting to sign him if we didn’t already have him, seriously.

OriginalPouzar

I know that the last few months of the 2019/20 season weren’t as bad as I recollect (numbers wise) but his game had already taken a down-turn from where it was in the first 2/3 of the season.

He then, after the “pause”, was a complete non-factor in the play-in, granted, only 4 games. Subsequently, an awful 2021 season – yes, he was hurt for much of it but he wasn’t good before the injuries or in between them. He then had one good game in the playoffs, a very good game.

I remember positing, at the time of the contract, pre-Covid, that it was an overpay in my opinion. 100% best case scenario is that he could provide value for it, there was zero chance (essentially) that’s he’d out-perform it and almost certainly would under-perform it.

We know what’s happened to the financial landscape plus his game since then.

You might be right, maybe he is tradeable based on the numbers you have posted. – I’ve been wrong many many times on hockey opinions.

At the some time, teams have scouts so, presumably any team taking on almost $10M (over 3) will have watched most of the tape on Kass from the last while.

Lets not forget, its not just his production that has dried up, he’s not even bringing the other attributes that teams would be trying to acquire – he was a non-factor in almost every game this season – not engaging physically, not “protecting”, not even getting shot attempts. He doesn’t PK. He isn’t good on the boards or defensively.

Scouts will have watched, no?

Last edited 9 days ago by OriginalPouzar
DevilsLettuce

Kassian is going to the Rangers 😁

jp

Yeah the stuff you’re saying is true. And the scouts will have seen it, though they aren’t watching quite as closely as we are.

Giving Kassian a (partial?) pass on this season due to injury isn’t hard to do either. Both legitimately and also if you’re a team considering trading for him. Recall Josh Anderson had an injury marred season worse than Kassian’s immediately before Montreal paid assets to get him, then sign him for $5.5M x 7. If you like what a player brings you tend to gloss over problematic details.

And I hear what you’re saying about his not engaging/protecting a lot lately. But it seems he’s still hitting at least (this season was his career high in hits/60, who’d have thought). And even if he’s not bringing the ‘truculence’ consistently, and/or we don’t value it highly, he still has a significant reputation.

You may place no value in Keith’s mention of him… I’m not sure quite what to make of it either, but I heard it and I took it to mean something. IIRC opposing players have mentioned on a few occasions how hard he is to play against (I can’t remember who/the context unfortunately). But he does have size/speed/physicality/some skill. He can and does get in on defensemen quickly, and then punish them, with some regularity.

Anyway, whether (some) other teams would take Kassian at his full salary is almost certainly a moot point. It seems we agree that our teams GM seems fine with the player and has given zero indication that he wants to be rid of his contract.

Keeper_13

Are you sure Kassian scored 1.88 p/60 over the last 2 seasons? I tried googling to verify but couldn’t find that stat.

Keeper_13

Ah, thanks, I’ll remember that site. I stared dumbfounded at that number for several minutes. I would have bet my next paycheque that that number was wrong. How did I not see him get those points? He’s a player I’ve been keeping an eye on, and I watch almost all the games. *shakes head in a perturbed fashion*

Keeper_13

Frustrating, disgusting and predictable to think that Tom Wilson makes Zack Kassian valuable. That hadn’t occurred to me. I really, really wish the Oilers played in a league that wasn’t the NHL.

flyfish1168

What Wilson did was disgusting. If I was Parros, wilson would be gone for the 2021/22 season. That was intent to injury a skill player.

Last edited 8 days ago by flyfish1168
Keeper_13

Totally agree. Ever have another member of a group you’re in do something that makes you question why you hang out with that group? That is me when hockey fans defend Wilson’s actions.

David

In what universe should Hyman get a better deal than the Nuge? If the answer is that it is because teams will bid each other up, that doesn’t address the issue.

Hyman is probably worth 4 something. If the bidding war pushes his value into the 5s or even the 6s, you can live with that if you don’t have many other overpaid players on your roster AND if the term is only 1-3 years. You can’t knowingly overpay a player for 6-7 years. Walk away from the table. There are other options to improve your team.

You could start by not throwing away a young, cheap, homegrown player who has multiple strong AHL seasons under his belt in Benson.

OriginalPouzar

I asked the exact same question yesterday (or the day before).

TheGreatBigMac

Agree the minimum requirement should be a proven top6 LW for Conner and Drai each. I don’t want to see the coach forced to play Leon and Conner together because we don’t have enough depth on the wings to run two good lines. That should be possible without a huge overpay in cap or term. A small overpay for either is acceptable to me if it gets us a better fit or higher quality player.

DevilsLettuce

Remember before the Nuge draft they asked Hall who he wants the Oilers to take.

Landeskog.

Holland, please bring Landeskog and Hall in. Anything less you should retire.

pts2pndr

I’m sure if he moved McDavid there would be no problem!

godot10

Saad will be cheaper and is a year younger.

DevilsLettuce

He would also be penciled in below either of them.

jp

Saad is 3.5 months younger (June vs Oct 1992), and are you sure he’s going to be cheaper?

Randle McMurphy

Toronto Media

Kyle Cantlon , on Zach Hyman

“There’s legitimate arguments to be made against using $5 to 6-million of cap space over the next 6-7 years on a 29-year-old winger who plays a wreckless style, is already battling some chronic injury issues over the past few campaigns, and who has only put up 20 goals and 40 points twice over five-and-a-half NHL seasons while under-producing like the rest of the squad has in each the past few postseasons.”

Last edited 9 days ago by Randle McMurphy
David

Someone mail this to Holland.

Keeper_13

Holland seemed surprised at the reaction to the Keith trade. Somehow. I’m guessing he doesn’t pay attention to the fan base, which would normally be a good thing, but let’s be real, how much better would the Oilers be if they could undo every trade, draft pick and signings that were hated in real time by 70% of the fan base or more?

defmn

Frank Seravalli
@frank_seravalli
·
28m
News: Multiple teams plan to steer clear from #NHLDraft prospect Logan Mailloux after he was charged in Sweden with taking and distributing a photo from a consensual sexual encounter. Other teams see him as a first-round talent.

JOFA

Because teenagers never make questionable choices

Last edited 9 days ago by JOFA
defmn

We are not as forgiving a society as we once were.

Keeper_13

I think it’s more that society’s values are changing more in a decade than they used to in a century, it’s hard to keep abreast of while also juggling the demands of adulthood, and the public education system wasn’t designed with the problem of accelerating complexity in mind so lots of us aren’t really well equipped to grapple with it. If you don’t pay taxes, or you go on the news and tell lies, or you find a way to use your rights to flout your responsibilities, you will find people more forgiving than they used to be.

JOFA

I don’t believe that to be true. I think people want to appear less forgiving out of fear of being cancelled. I hear what you’re saying, but most of us are forgiving by nature, because we know how truly flawed we all are.

Last edited 8 days ago by JOFA
tcho

So I used capfriendly to try and build an expansion roster for the Kraken. Holy crap did I build a bad looking team. I mean my D and G were decent looking, but my F group… woof! If the NHL GMs have learned from the Vegas expansion I think Seattle is going to have a tough time. I guess they might have an edge in free agency. Am I missing something?

Harpers Hair

They will have a ton of cap space to sign free agents.

And like VGK will parlay some of the D they pick into forwards.

pts2pndr

Only if the teams learned nothing from the Vegas debacle!

TheGreatBigMac

This team from the Seattle Times looked realistic to me and has a reasonable top6 and 3C, doesn’t look like a championship team but not basement dwellers either. This is without making a deal with Tampa for an additional forward which I think has a good chance of happening.

https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/kraken/2021-mock-nhl-expansion-draft-geoff-baker-predicts-how-the-krakens-picks-could-play-out/

Forwards:
James van Riemsdyk Chris Tierney Ryan Johansen
Jason Zucker Tyson Jost Tyler Johnson
Alexander Kerfoot

Anthony Duclair (likely protected now that he’s signed)
Nick Merkley
Brett Howden
Jason Dickinson
Tyler Benson
Brendan Lemieux
Dylan Gambrell

Last edited 9 days ago by TheGreatBigMac
Harpers Hair

That’s just the expansion draft picks.

They will be able to top up that roster with free agents.

tcho

Free agency and trades of Dmen seem to be the potential secret sauce for this franchise. If they can’t do well on those areas, I think they’ll be quite weak.

leadfarmer

Yeah anyone throwing bets at them like Vegas is gonna be very dissappointed. They are gonna be closer to Columbus Minnesota expansion drafts than the Vegas expasion draft

Eh Team

I wouldn’t be so sure. Depends on if their plan is to geared more to the long run. Conditions haven’t changed too much since Vegas. Or they have, but in both directions. The other teams may have learned. But NHL team management is still comprised of the same group who collectively have placed themselves into cap hell. And now there is a flat cap environment making them more desperate.

Harpers Hair

This is nonsense.

There was no salary cap in 2000.

Darth Tu

I just gave it a go, went with the auto protect mode, then fixed the teams that seem to end up with 6 or 8 forwards by roughing in who I would protect, or miss out guys that are UFAs.

Ended up with a team with a cap hit of 77.1 mill – however, I do have some UFAs in there that will no doubt get a bit of a raise and therefore screw this up completely, but this is the team that I selected:

Forwards:
Johnson (Tampa Bay)
Rask (Wild)
Lowry (Jets)
Laughton (Philly)
McCann (Penguins)
Sundqvist (Blues) – how bad is his injury?
Nichuskin (Avs)
Fast (Hurricanes)
Pitlick (Arizona)
Hathaway (Caps)
Nieto (Sharks)
Dzingel (Sens)
Hall (Boston)
Danault (Montreal)
Gauthier (NYR)
Sharangovich (Devils)
Bennett (Panthers) – Is he really going to be left unprotected? Capfriendly thinks so
Granlund (Preds)

D
DeKyser (Wings)
Maata (Kings)
Holl (Leafs)
Kukan (CBJ)
Mayfield (NYI)
Fleury (Ducks)
Jones (Blackhawks) – lol
Barrie (Oilers)
Kylington (Flames)

G
Holtby (Canucks)
Khudobin (Stars)
Ullmark (Buffalo)

I didn’t spend too long on this, and basically did it to hit the 10 UFA thing, and 20 2021-21 Contracts. minimum 9/9 D, 3/3 Goalies and went heavy on forwards. I understand the argument for grab more D in real life and use them + picks to get forwards in trades.

Still, this team looks OK – but one, I don’t think they’d be able to do all 10 UFA players and fit under the cap once some of them get the raises they’re likely to see. Two – I’ve given exactly zero thought to team makeup in terms of who’s penalty killing and all that jazz, I’m sure Seattle’s going to grab who they can that they might be able to use in trades to get the pieces they can’t in the expansion, but also have an eye on making a cohesive team – the same way Vegas did.

Darth Tu

and it’s immediately screwed as I never knew that Bishop waived his NMC so that Kudobin could be protected. In that case I’d probably dump Danault, take Allen as the other goalie, Dickinson from Dallas.

This is why I’m not a GM.

tcho

Darth – you definitely built a better roster than I did. I just found that after I ran the stock protection for each team there were usually pretty slim pickings left over. My team didn’t have Hall, for example, because he showed up on Boston’s protected list

Darth Tu

Yeah, I did a very quick fly through to try and unprotect the obvious free agent guys that will be available to talk to Seattle.

Of course, like I say, there’s zero chance you’d get that roster done under the cap – some of those free agents are going to want a bit of a pay bump.

Harpers Hair

Donnie & Dhali (@DonnieandDhali) Tweeted:
Agent for Alex Edler Mark Stowe on the latest with Edler and the #Canucks 

“Alex has decided to pursue Free Agency. he will test the market pretty soon.”

Harpers Hair

Jonathan Willis (@JonathanWillis) Tweeted:
Edler, 35, played 21 minutes per game for Vancouver last season. He’s an interesting addition to an increasingly veteran-heavy group of left-shot defencemen in UFA.

https://twitter.com/JonathanWillis/status/1416086070043693056?s=20

Harpers Hair

JFresh (@JFreshHockey) Tweeted:
Alex Edler, headed to free agency, is a strong two-way veteran left-handed defenceman who had a nice bounceback year in real difficult minutes. Age is obviously an issue but I doubt he breaks the bank or gets much term. #Canucks https://t.co/DjVZGu7LLI

https://twitter.com/JFreshHockey/status/1416087159203827717?s=20

JOFA

Thank God the Oilers got Keith when they did.

Harpers Hair

Yeah…often you have to outbid a host of other teams to get your man.

pts2pndr

By running up the price bidding against themselves. Not a hill to die on!

Keeper_13

I hope he gets his 100th goal. Dunno what snake bit him, but it best stay the F out of Edmonton.

Randle McMurphy

I’d forgotten about this, the reveal…

NHL tweeting out

The @GoldenKnights roster was revealed during the #NHLAwards Show.

Don’t miss the #SeattleDraft on July 21 at 8p ET on ESPN2 and @Sportsnet

Last edited 9 days ago by Randle McMurphy
Ryan
pts2pndr

Is it a whale?😉

Brantford Boy

These draft lists this year are fascinating to me (probably nowhere near LT’s levels) in regards to the orders of some of these players. I’m happy for LT’s benchmark with some of the greats, excellent job LT! I am concerned about my hyper-focused QMJHL players getting scooped up prior to #19, and I strongly doubt Cossa’s available either, just too much hype.

Also interesting to see LT have RNH at center for 2 days in a row. I mentioned this last year prior to the playoffs and was shown the door pretty quick. Although LT is probably doing this for discussion points way down here in the comments, I feel after 2 years of his contract… This Is The Way.

pts2pndr

Smart money says Nuge is a lock at top six left wing until there becomes a better option. Assuming that Holloway and Lavoie both matriculate ( with honours ) the Nuge with his versatility and team first mentality will check down to third line centre. It should be every good GM’s dream to have a player of his skill, versatility and team first attitude!

Harpers Hair

Agent Kurt Overhardt on Vancouver radio saying the lack of state tax in Washington State will be a big factor in attracting free agents to the Kraken.

Harpers Hair

Overhardt, Mike Smith’s agent says talks continue but not close.

defmn

Hopefully the Oilers decide to move on. I have serious doubts that Smith can repeat last year’s performance.

Harpers Hair

Overhardt sounded very much like the deal will get done.

defmn

I know. I just don’t think it is a good idea unless they replace Koskinen with a real goalie.

Harpers Hair

But he’s a warrior. 🙂

leadfarmer

Magically they will get closer after the expansion draft

leadfarmer

Now do property taxes
I mean Seattle is a great place to live having lived there myself but thats definitely not a cheap place to live

Harpers Hair

If you have a contract that pays you, say, $5 million a year, keeping even 5% of it in your pocket rather than pay taxes on it, handles a lot of property taxes.

pts2pndr

Come on you’re smarter than that! He trolls to cast doubt in Oiler fans minds. He as an ex broadcaster gets a certain leeway! We had a broadcaster on the farm but we called it a manure spreader!😉

TheGreatBigMac

Property taxes are based on the cost of your home not your income and would be peanuts compared to income tax ($10-$20k/year). Cost of living is not that much of a factor compared to income tax.

If Smith moved his family to Seattle for example and wants similar accomodations, it would cost $1M – $2M more. He would get it back if/when he sells, it’s mostly a cash flow issue. But something to consider.

I doubt Smith wants to move for another one year contract. Kenny you have all the cards. We all appreciate Smith’s season but be prudent and don’t overpay.

Last edited 9 days ago by TheGreatBigMac
The Trade Guy

eh the tax thing is an annoying peeve of mine to discuss around Free Agency. Its not as big an impact as some people let on as where you claim residency also matters, and you pay taxes on road games as well. Basically, players are wage workers and they pay a lot of taxes because of that. There was a recent article on how much taxes the LA clipper players paid in taxes compared to owner Steve Ballmer.

I honestly don’t know how heavily players consider it. LeBron chose California (lots of players do) and the taxes are sky high compared to a lot of other places. Players go to New York and Toronto. High tax places.

Winning is a big part of the decision first and foremost. Maybe then they consider the tax implications when all else is equal.

Not really criticizing you sharing this. I just find the tax talk annoying, often lazy, and think a lot of people get the details wrong.

Harpers Hair

Overhardt mentioned right off the top of the interview that Seattle will be a prime destination for free agents because it’s a great place to live and there is no state income tax.

He is an employment lawyer so I’m pretty sure he won’t get the details wrong.

Ben

Prognostication: Koskinen, half-retained, is the other shoe to drop in the Wells/Canes deal. He’ll split time with Ned and both Reimer and Mrazek will go to market.

leadfarmer

Curious question LT
How in the world do you have Sillinger in the 2nd round.
I have him starred underlined and circled as first round target
>1ppg in WHL in D-2 season. Moved to sioux falls stampede over whl season worries and score 0.8 gpg and 1.5 ppg in d-1 season
Skating needs work. But probably best shot in the draft. Complete swing for the fences in a draft made for fence swinging

Ben

Seems surreal that Landeskog could hit the market (I bet he ends up signing 7×8 with the Avs), but I’d rather give him a stupid contract than any of the other UFA candidates. He durable, creates tons of space and is incredibly consistent.

The money that Bowman didn’t retain on Keith might be the difference in Holland’s ability to put that offer together. Glad to hear Rishaugh transporting some Evian for the idea, though.

Chelios is a Dinosaur

Get me Landeskog in the Oilers top 6 my mouth is watering.

Reports of Avs first offer seem extremely low, offensive play from Joe Sakic to the Captain, imo.

godot10

Saad will be better value for money than Landeskog, Hyman, and Hall.

TheGreatBigMac

What would your offer for Saad be and what is your walk away price?

Randle McMurphy

Anything at or below 5 x $5m

Value at 4 x $4.5m or 3 x $5m

Last edited 9 days ago by Randle McMurphy
JimmyV1965

He should get the Toffoli contract 4 x $4.25

godot10

(5 x $5.5 million) or (4 x $6 million) or (3 x $6.5 million) or (2 x $7 million)

Todd Macallan

Rossi stating the McCann will be left exposed to Seattle. We need to be all over that. Played LW with Carter later in the yr but could be a great 3C option for us.

Maybe offering something around Kassian +, as Burke is a vocal fan of his truculence and their salaries are a wash this yr.

dustrock

Saw a tweet showing McCann vs. Pettersson and it’s closer than you might expect.

I’d be all over McCann, how can Pittsburgh not want to protect him? Someone is going to get a great 3C.

OriginalPouzar

The thing is, they aren’t going to give McCann away for free. If they trade him in order to not lose him for free in the expansion draft then they lost Pettersson in the expansion draft so that needs to be factored in to the acquisition cost if they are trading him.

TheGreatBigMac

Seems strange to expose McCann, who are they protecting instead Zucker?

Todd Macallan

Brandon Tanev according to Rossi, seems like the choice was down to those two from what I can reckon.

TheGreatBigMac

If this is true, go Kenny get us our new LW/C!!

dustrock

Friedman said near the end of his radio hit he doesn’t think Hall to Boston is a sure thing, sounds like Boston might be looking at another forward (Landeskog? Hyman?)

Is Hyman so much better than Tatar that it would be worth spending the extra money and term?

What if we landed Hall and Tatar and resigned Larsson? Would that be a successful offseason?

Lists have to be submitted end of today I think, so we’ll see what happens.

Darth Tu

I’d say so. Hall and Tatar, or Saad and Tatar means we can run Nuge at 3C.

leadfarmer

There was a rumor that Holland wanted to bring in 3 wingers that could play in top 9

David

He could start by protecting Benson.

Keeper_13

I would think that would salvage a poor off season quite nicely, but I doubt it would leave us much, if any, cap space to address our goaltending. I am uneasy with our current goaltending situation and have no idea what the franchise thinks it’s goalie depth chart looks like.

Harpers Hair

NHL Watcher (@NHL_Watcher) Tweeted:
Jeff Marek on 31TP talking Zach Hyman: “I’m of the mind that this is probably going to be a 6×6 deal.”

Friedman agrees, says there is also potentially 7×6 deal out there for him.

https://twitter.com/NHL_Watcher/status/1416028196324139020?s=20

JOFA

Run for your lives!😊

buck yoakam

yikes!

DevilsLettuce

Larsson had a good year when he arrived, and his playing for a new contract year. Everything in the middle was leaving much to be desired, does he become that again when he gets his new contract?

Larsson will be a 3rd pairing defender the second half of his next contract imo. I’d like to see the Oilers aim higher and watch McDavid walk Larsson 6 games a year as he hangs out with his Swedes in Swedcouver.

godot10

James Patrick spent his thirties grooming every new young D on the 3rd pair in the Ruff era when Buffalo was competitive and contending.

It is okay if Larsson is 3rd pairing on the back half of the contract. 3rd pairing D, physical, and PK, and mentor to young D will be worth the money.

Darth Tu

If in 2022-23 season the D pairings are something like (2nd LD subject to change obviously):

Nurse-Bouchard
Klefbom-Bear
Samorukov/Broberg-Larsson

I’ll be over the moon. That’s also downplaying potential development of Broberg and or Samo. Also Keith retired after his Cup win in the Spring and Klefbom’s shoulder came back within 20% of what it was previously.

DevilsLettuce

I agree, it’s just do the Oilers want to be paying him 4 million or more for a 3rd pairing defender.

Lots of future talk about contracts coming due, does it help if Larsson is a 4million defender on the bottom pair?

I do Larsson 3×3, or walk imo.

Bruce McCurdy

Oilers have been paying guys like Andrew Ference, Nick Schultz, Mark Fayne & Kris Russell 4x$4 type deals for a similar role forever.
Not saying it’s necessarily worked out, but there is plenty of precedent.

JOFA

The challenge is the cost.

DevilsLettuce

I completely agree it’s ok for Larsson being a 3rd pairing defender. Completely over the moon about it.

But are we happy to pay 4 million a year or more for it?

Sierra

3rd pairing of Keith – Larsson in 22/23. That’s a lot of coin.

pts2pndr

Would you also like to watch him inflict pain on Connor the way he does opposing forwards now. Careful how you judge Larsson as he is if you were to take a vote the Oiler D opponents least like to play against!

DevilsLettuce

Did you the see amount of pain he inflicted on Winnipeg in the 4 game sweep. I mean I’ll lose days, weeks, months, years even of sleep thinking about it.

DevilsLettuce

Watching Larsson play, I’d love watching McDavid absolutely light his slow reaction boots on fire.

Larsson is nothing to be feared imo, not a single Jets forward had a moment of hesitation against him.

OriginalPouzar

You think he has slow reaction boots but he was one of the best in the league this past season at defending goals……. moreso when you take in to account usage (high defensive zone starts, tough comp, 84% TOI away from McDavid, revolving door of non-established partners).

OriginalPouzar

Larsson should be in his prime for 2, if not 3, more seasons.

Lets not forget the impact of Larsson’s dad suddenly dying in front of him – that took a while to recover from.

I’d like to keep the contract to 3 years but that seems unlikely – unfortunately, it looks like it will indeed be a bit too long (5 will be tough to take but if it gets the AAV down well below $4M, that would work).

Last edited 9 days ago by OriginalPouzar
Randle McMurphy

Can’t wait to see what changes McDavid makes to his game. He has evolved every year. What will his focus be this year??? … and JP too.

Ryan

Maybe he can spend time training with a good NFL running back and learn how to duck tackles.

Last edited 9 days ago by Ryan
jp

Was it Eakins or Kruger who went and took in an NFL training camp?

defmn

Eakins, I think. Krueger went home so he could be close to his computer in case there were Skype calls for him.

Halfwise

He’s been working on his Finnish.

Harpers Hair

Ryan Rishaug (@TSNRyanRishaug) Tweeted:
Landeskog has to be a consideration for the Oilers. Checks a lot of boxes from style of play to leadership, playoff performer. Wonder if they could do north of 7m for him over 6 or 7 years. Would take some juggling. He’d get either 97 or 29 as a centre which would be enticing

https://twitter.com/TSNRyanRishaug/status/1416061564407275521?s=20

dustrock

Andy Strickland said Landeskog might be looking at $9-10 million in the open market. Avs offering around $5-6m.

Harpers Hair

Sakic has to be looking at the long term.

Only 2 more seasons of Makinnon’s sweetheart deal.

OriginalPouzar

Sakic seems on the verge of wasting MacKinnon’s prime….. tsk, tsk.

dustrock

Also, man I don’t know about Hyman. I see some Leafs fans asking not to re-sign him.

29 and multiple knee injuries.

He’s a great player but can’t afford another Looch UFA contract.

godot10

The Hyman is broken.

McNuge93

He reminds me of Van Riemsdyk, a big body who did some decent scoring on the Leafs. While JVR hasnt been a total fail he hasnt lived up to his contract either. With all the interest from other teams in Hyman I think we should back away.

godot10

Kassian for Van Riemsdyk would be a good deal.

dustrock

I know you’ll chuckle and skip past the post, but for any who used to post on HFB, there’s someone claiming to be speedyturtle (who definitely called a couple of trades/signings in the past) who says the Oilers are going hard after Hall AND Hyman.

I don’t really see how that’s possible, and it might be they’re trying to get one, but wow would that ever improve the wing situation.

It would also mean they couldn’t sign Larsson without other moves being made.

Anyway just throwing it out there.

JOFA

Interesting. That definitely sounds like the Oilers. That would be great to help screw the team long term.

dustrock

2 guys past their prime with knee injuries? Where do I sign?

ArmchairGM

Hamonic can basically do what Larsson did for millions less. Hall + Hyman is doable but doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. Holland did say he wants to land a top-6 player prior to free agency, does that mean he’s after (say) Palat?

DevilsLettuce

Definitely would go for Hamonic over Larsson.

Mesmer

Hamonic has stated that he is once again willing to play anywhere in the league and will be looking for maximum dollars on his next contract. What makes you think he will be available for less than Larsson?

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual

If people are gonna question Lagesson, they’d better damn well question Koekkoek.

Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR

I’d prefer Kulikov over either on the 3rd pair at $1M.

fistycuff

I’m not a fan of Kulikov at all on the 2nd pair as I believe he is way way way over his head there. But, Kulikov can be a number 6/7 dman on a championship team. Not sure he signs for 1m …but these are weird times… so I say go for it.

GordieHoweHatTrick

Lag paired well with Bouch in Bake
3LD should also be good on PK. Keep Keith focussed on 5v5

Fiveinatrailer

What would it take for you to give Holland a passing grade on this years signings?

1 star player (Hamilton, Gibson etc)
1 starting goalie (grubauer?)
solid second cast (Killorn Palat etc?)

me, I’d say Hamilton over Larson gives him a pass.

or Larson and Gribauer

or a combo of Larson/ Grubauer/ second cast.

ArmchairGM

Gibson? He’s a replacement level goalie with a massive contract.

Keeper_13

For me, Holland needed a top 6 winger, Nuge and Larsson (or someone to replace them), a second pairing defender, and a goalie depth chart that isn’t just a bong hits and wishful thinking.
He started out with more cap flexibility than any Oilers GM has had since Lucic and more legit D prospects than the organization could hope to develop at once. He has now expended his most fungible asset, Caleb Jones, and a bunch of cap space AND a 3rd rounder and has procured a second pairing defender. He cannot afford to offer anyone else full market value in free agency who can fill one of our holes unless he offloads salary.
If Holland manages to come out of this off season having done a good job, he’ll have stolen home base with two outs.

Dac189

Would be nice to see Holland trade the 19th for a late first and a 2nd.

He has a history of this type of trade. 2011, 2013, 2014, 2016 and even last year when he traded #76 for Tullio and Savoie.

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