Positively 4th Street

by Lowetide

What is it that you’re looking for from the Edmonton Oilers? If the team won a Stanley Cup in the next four years would that be enough? Two? What if the Oilers won enough to earn another contract from Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl without winning the Stanley Cup?

THE ATHLETIC!

I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here’s the latest!

KEN HOLLAND’S SUMMER

I count the Ryan Nugent-Hopkins signing as a win, the Devin Shore signing has many people concerned and the trade for Duncan Keith was an overpay of significant proportions. No one is denying Keith’s ability, although where he’ll play in the lineup is open for discussion, it’s the cost that got the reaction.

That will become an important conversation piece if Keith has a good season (and that’s possible). On a larger level, I’m not sure Oilers fans are going to enjoy the next few weeks based on what we’re hearing.

Reading the tea leaves, a Mikko Koskinen trade (for either little return or a surprising return) is possible. Zach Hyman seems to have the lead in the ‘scoring winger’ sweepstakes (TML now allowing Hyman’s agent to reach out to other teams) and Adam Larsson is more than less likely to return. The roster might look like this:

POSSIBLE OILERS ROSTER

This roster has about $850,000 in cap room. Oscar Klefbom is on LTIR, Kyle Turris sent to Bakersfield and Mikko Koskinen traded to Nashville for Mark Borowiecki (no money retained, Borowiecki sent to the minors). James Neal is bought out.

I think this is what you’re going to get, and every time I show it to you, you hate it. I have kids, and have seen the expression your words create many times on little faces. You can’t hide your disappointment.

You want the smart, modern people employed by the Tampa Bay Lightning or Colorado Avalanche to run the team. You didn’t get that, and it’s clear the trade route is pain for Edmonton. Will the free agent route give the team cover?

I TAKE ISSUE

Last night in the comments section, someone said “Ken Holland was handed a perfect scenario” and I think that’s a little too far. He was awarded a substantial opportunity, but there was a lot of work to be done and very little wiggle room.

Holland has delivered two playoff berths, while trading more picks than I (or anyone) is comfortable with during the first three offseasons. The truth is he doesn’t have much else to send away, although the scouts have done a fantastic job in 2019 and 2020 making picks count. That should give the team some suitable replacements for expiring contracts in the coming years. It’s reasonable to project Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway and Carter Savoie on an NHL trajectory, with Raphael Lavoie, Ilya Konovalov and Maxim Berezkin showing good-to-great progress.

HOLLAND’S INHERITED ROSTER (37)

  • Goalies (4): Mikko Koskinen, Dylan Wells, Stuart Skinner, Olivier Rodrigue
  • Left Defense (8): Oscar Klefbom, Darnell Nurse, Andrej Sekera, Brandon Manning, Caleb Jones, William Lagesson, Dmitri Samorukov, Keegan Lowe
  • Right Defense (8): Adam Larsson, Kris Russell, Matt Benning, Joel Persson, Ethan Bear, Logan Day, Evan Bouchard, Ryan Mantha
  • Center (6): Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Kyle Brodziak, Colby Cave, Cooper Marody, Ryan McLeod
  • Left Wing (5): Leon Draisaitl, Milan Lucic, Tyler Benson, Nolan Vesey, Ostap Safin
  • Right Wing (6):  Zack Kassian, Sam Gagner, Kailer Yamamoto, Josh Currie, Cam Hebig, Kirill Maksimov
  • RFA: Tobias Rieder, Jujhar Khaira, Tyler Vesel, Colin Larkin, Jesse Puljujarvi, Ty Rattie, Robin Norell, Shane Starrett

HOLLAND’S CURRENT ROSTER (33)

  • Goalies (4): Mikko Koskinen, Alex Stalock, Ilya Konovalov, Olivier Rodrigue
  • Left Defense (8): Darnell Nurse, Duncan Keith, Kris Russell, William Lagesson, Philip Broberg, Dmitri Samorukov, Markus Niemelainen, Oscar Klefbom (inj)
  • Right Defense (5): Ethan Bear, Evan Bouchard, Filip Berglund, Phil Kemp, Mike Kesselring
  • Center (5): Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan McLeod, Tim Soderlund, Seth Griffith
  • Left Wing (6): Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, James Neal, Devin Shore, Dylan Holloway, Raphael Lavoie, Ostap Safin
  • Right Wing (5): Jesse Puljujarvi, Zack Kassian, Kyle Turris, Josh Archibald, Kirill Maksimov
  • RFA: Kailer Yamamoto, Dominik Kahun, Jujhar Khaira, Tyler Benson, Cooper Marody, Stuart Skinner, Dylan Wells, Theodor Lennstrom

Much of the improvement comes from graduating prospects, much of the downbeat is injury (Klefbom) or free agency (Adam Larsson). I count Holland’s clear positives as bringing back Jesse Puljujarvi at a fantastic cap hit, and (along with the coaching staff) transitioning JP, Yamamoto, Bear, Jones and others successfully to the NHL.

The biggest concern is Holland at the trade table. He has not been effective. The drafting and development (wrote about it today at The Athletic) is as good as it’s been since Claude Julien was coaching in Hamilton. Free agency (Tyson Barrie, Mike Smith, Dominik Kahun) has been an effective tool.

I don’t think you’re going to enjoy the next two weeks. The real questions are: Can this roster make the playoffs for the third year in a row? Can this team win a playoff round? We have to wait to see the final product.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we have a great lineup and trades in the air and ready to spark any instant. We’ll be joined by Frank Seravalli from Daily Faceoff, who will have the latest Oilers trade rumours. Reid Fowler from Draft Kings will talk British Open and your comments are welcome. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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Jaxon

CapFriendly Armchair-GM User-Generated Roster
 
FORWARDS (14)
Right wing: Jesse Puljujärvi – Kailer Yamamoto ($1.25M) – Josh Archibald – Raphael Lavoie – Devin Shore
Centre: Connor McDavid – Leon Draisaitl – Ryan McLeod – Erik Haula ($1.5M)
Left wing: Dylan Holloway – Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – Jujhar Khaira – Tyler Benson ($925K) – Dominik Kahun ($1.0M)
 
DEFENSE (7)
Right: Dougie Hamilton ($8.34M) – Ethan Bear – Evan Bouchard
Left: Darnell Nurse – Duncan Keith – Kris Russell – Dmitri Samorukov
 
GOALTENDER (2)
Linus Ullmark ($3.84M) – Mike Smith ($2.84M)
 
BUYOUTS (1)
Andrej Sekera
 
RETAINED SALARY TRANSACTIONS (5)
James Neal ($1.4375M) – Zack Kassian ($800K) – Kyle Turris ($400K) – Mikko Koskinen ($1.125M) – Milan Lucic ()

hags9k

“Bridge deal” for Nurse and not going long term at say 5M per when they had the chance will go down as one of my biggest regrets/frustrations if this group doesn’t win the cup.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Not to mention signing Koskinen beforehand, when ChiaPete could have locked up Darnell long term.

Redbird62

I believe Hags9k is referring to when Nurse was signed to his first bridge deal at $3.2 MM in 2018, the year before Koskinen was given the big contract, not Nurse’s current $5.6 MM deal. It was reported at the time that Nurse was looking for between 5 and maybe 5.5 million for a longer term deal, but the Oilers only had about 4.5 million of cap room left at the time so had to go to a bridge. Koskinen did not affect that deal. Koskinen’s deal was part of the Oiler’s cap though when the current contract was negotiated by Holland.

Harpers Hair

Tej Sahota

@boatical

#Oilers fans, some highlights and surprising tidbits from Ken Holland’s appearance from the Bob McCown Podcast:

-Hitchcock still seems to be heavily relied upon by the GM, and helped on the Keith trade

-Larsson money doesn’t seem to be an issue, rather player may seek to move

Harpers Hair

Hitchcock???

Seriously?

Side

It’s funny that you rag on Hitchcock, but fully support the Sedins and their zero experience as “special advisors” to the GM.

Sierra

We know what Hitchcock is. We don’t know what the Sundins are

Harpers Hair

Dennis King
@DKingBH
·
6h

One interesting current part of Oilers Now are all the businessmen texting into the show to support a Ken Holland trade? So guys at their computers can’t evaluate players but tire salesmen can evaluate NHL general managers? OK Bob, good work

YYCOil

Honest question – who is Denis King and what has he done to be quoted?

Psyche

Dennis King is Fabulous!

OriginalPouzar

I follow him but he’s just another Oiler fan – his opinion is akin to mine and yours.

If there is a negative view found on social media, this poster will share it with us as his life seems to revolve around finding negative opinions, spins and narratives to share in this forum.

godot10

Dennis King is an OG Lowetider.

jp

LT and/or Ryan. Any idea why the site is struggling at 1AM ET?

It’s been pretty good for me all day whenever I’ve tried but now it’s having major difficulty. There can’t be to much traffic now, can there?

Ryan

There is something significantly wrong with the website.

I don’t have access to the Cpanel or Godaddy side of things.

it could be a malware issue.

it could be the shared hosting and Godaddy throttling his website.

if you go over the resource limit in a day, you get throttled continuously.

It could be a plugin that’s using too many resources.

Or the website may just need a new web host.

If it’s something other than needing a new web hosting plan, I don’t know how to fix the issue.

Last edited 3 months ago by Ryan
Revolved

It feels like there are a lot of posts since the Keith deal, but is traffic really higher now than during the playoffs?

YKOil

Hyman at 6 years is a massive mistake. Hyman at $6 million /year is a massive mistake. But I would rather, on a pick-your-poison basis, $6 million by 4 years than $4 million by 6 years. I expect it will be $5.5m /year for 6 years and the Oilers will act as if this will put them over the edge.

Coleman, Saad, Garland… there are better moves out there.

Went from looking forward to this off-season (Nuge!) to dreading it in (Keith!) one single move.

Hell, even if that trade had just:

– had a 5th instead of a 3rd, and
– and included Turris

it would have moved the marker to something less than total over-pay.

Kinger_Oil.redux

– The discussion on Keith has been interesting. I was under the impression he was done/buy-out/Kraken for free. At best some team would accept him with salary retained

– 2nd pairing with Larsson, if that is then end result, we could live with that

– Its just such an egregious lack of understanding of the market

– To use an analogy from my business: managing money where performance matters, its generally about only a few “trades” a year that make the difference between outperformance and being way below. For the most part, most managers are status-quo, closet indexers that trade around the consensus. Its the deviations from these norms that make or break. i.e. not having at least market weight exposure to Big Tech hurt. Ignoring, or rotating quickly out of the “pandemis stocks” like Peleton, Zoom, etc

– It could work out: and Keith in a different situation might surprise a lot. But Holland isn’t one of those money managers who did this by thinking out of the box: doing a bunch of research to find an un-loved gem that he got at a discount. It was based on old-school dogma, and he allocated a lot of resources to do so.

– He bought IBM, when he was looking for an allocation to cloud-computing, because IBM used to be good 20 years, and they do Cloud computing. That’s what he knows. “You don’t get fired choosing IBM” so went the saying. That’s Holland: a safe, out of touch guy in charge of computers because he moved up the ranks, but the world has changed

– He didn’t look at any of the pure-plays, or newer cloud-computing companies with more upside. On top of that, the bid for IBM was $110, and he went off-market and did a swap of assets that were worth $140

godot10

IBM is a bit harsh.

Intel.

No longer the tops at semiconductor design, so making a pivot into fabrication. A new lease on life based on reshoring semiconductor fabrication for national securitiy purposes. Instead of battling AMD and Nvidea and Apple directly, Lining up from big dollars from the US government to speed the reshoring of semiconductor fabrication. From the tip of the spear to a cog in the machine.

IBM is a already amongst the walking dead. Intel still has a chance with its pivot to gain a steady national security subsidy revenue stream to halt the decline and give it a second chance to compete again in semiconductor design.

Ryan

This.

You’ve articulated this far better than I ever could.

prefonmich

All of this is unfortunately true but it is also at the heels of Bobby Nicholson hiring who he knows. The organization has gone from hiring all the old boys on the bus to just all the old boys. They are getting left behind again…

leadfarmer

True but then again if you only did analytics and modeling you would not draft Dylan Holloway last year

Harpers Hair

No one need analytics to pick Holloway at 14.

The Bob Father’s consensus list had him at 16.

A potato could have made that pick.

OriginalPouzar

No, Bob’s list had Lappiere, Ghule and Mercer all before Holloway so, no, a potato would not have made that pick.

Harpers Hair

That’s just spectacular.

We’ll see if Holland or the potato got it right.

OriginalPouzar

Yes, time will tell.

Of course, that wasn’t your point.

Your original point is that Holloway was a no-brainer pick – a potato would have made it. Now that its been shown that it was a small reach by Holland it appears you’ve changed to opine that the worth of the pick is up in the air.

leadfarmer

Like those years a potato outdrafted the Canucks?

YYCOil

You start with Keith was done/buy-out/Kraken for free.

what if that assumption was wrong – do you have a legit link to support that? It makes your sales pitch consistent with many others but is it true?

OriginalPouzar

Yes, the thing that’s missing in this analysis is the value that Holland put on this asset. We can all disagree (and almost all do) but Holland put a high value on the asset including at its full price and, importantly, the things the player brings – elements that none of the “new age offerings” with higher potential bring.

Any particular person can disagree with that valuation and the importance placed on the referenced element but it is what it is!

Harpers Hair

You’ve identified the problem exactly.

OriginalPouzar

Maybe – time will tell.

defmn

In the interview he did today with Shannon Holland put the value of a UFA 2nd pairing dman at between 4 and 4.5 M so by his own math he paid 1 to 1.5 M more for Keith’s intangibles while also giving up a player and a draft pick.

OriginalPouzar

That $4M to $4.5M would come with more than 2 years of term.

YYCOil

I was looking for a statement from a from a representative from the club, that they were moving on from Mr Keith. A couple of posts on Twitter using some formula is not anything a reasonable person would or wouldn’t make a $5.3 investment on …would you?

Redbird62

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/analyzing-impactful-duncan-keith-new-team/

Probably do better math with better data than your two.

Redbird62

Warren Buffet is the most successful stock investor in US market history and he’s pretty old school about how he built and maintains his wealth.

Harpers Hair

How much IBM or Intel stock does he hold?

godot10

Warren Buffett was suckered by IBM as few years ago and had a fair sized holding. I believe he sold it after a few years, after finally realizing it was cheap for a reason.

I don’t think he holds Intel. According to google, he had a position for awhile a decade ago, but I don’t recall it ever making the news. Buffett’s IBM position did make the news,

One of Buffett new guys did buy the Snowflake IPO (it might have been a SPAC), but I think they have divested from it already. Snowflake is one of those new fangled cloud computing/data companies that Kinger was talking about.

Redbird62

Wasn’t about what he owns, it about how he decides what to buy and sell

Harpers Hair

I bought 10K shares of Apple 11 years ago and I still own it.

Am I a genius?

Psyche

Good evening folks! I came across this beauty interview from today with Ken Holland. It’s a good watch. Enjoy!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpKupntQTE0

OriginalPouzar

Thank you for posting.

Listened to this earlier today and the main takeaway, for me is the importance placed on Evan Bouchard and Barrie not even really being contemplated due to what they thing Bouch will do in short order.

Psyche

I enjoyed the early discussion on penalties called (or not) in the play-offs. Bob’s questions were solid. It would be great for similar questions to be asked publicly to Stephen Walkom. As an Oiler fan, I’d appreciate Walkom being asked for his perspective on McDavid not drawing penalties in the play-offs.

defmn

I liked Shannon’s “Edmonton fans are always apoplectic so never mind that” comment to Holland regarding the reaction to the Keith trade. 😉

Randle McMurphy

Really entertaining. Thank you for posting it.

jp

Yeah that was good, thanks for posting.

leadfarmer

Dom at the athletic has something for the people that think Seth Jones is gonna rescue some team. Maybe free them off a bunch of assets and money.
https://twitter.com/domluszczyszyn/status/1415679919745605632?s=21
next year projected to be a 3.5 mil player value

OriginalPouzar

Haven’t you seen his “chart”? He’s a bad d-man apparently.

Prime example of not being able to fully trust most of these models – in particular for d-men.

leadfarmer

While true and sometimes teams style or lack of overall skill depth or goalie can destroy the models as well as advanced stats, Jones has sucked at both last two seasons while his D partner has done very well.
If Werenskis sucked as well I’d blame the fancies and the models but they are actually dont

jp

I don’t get it.

How does he go 2.2, 1.9, 1.7 GSVA, then the model predicts a drop to 0.6 for a 26 year old?

leadfarmer

Dom at the athletic has something for the people that think Seth Jones is gonna rescue some team. Maybe free them off a bunch of assets and money.
https://twitter.com/domluszczyszyn/status/1415679919745605632?s=21
next year projected to be a 3.5 mil player

leadfarmer

Graves went for the Isles 2nd round pick so very late 2nd
gonna go from a super soft landing in Colorado to a hard landing in NJ

Ryan

I’m just glad Kenny grabbed Keith before Dellow.

Poor Dellow had to settle for Ryan Graves.

Since we’re going off the guide and record book instead of analytics maybe we can pick up Subban for our bottom pairing.

Harpers Hair

I’m pretty sure Holland wouldn’t want to insult a good old boy by suggesting Lou retain any of Subban’s $9 million cap hit.

Maybe send Ethan Bear along in the deal just to be fair. 🙂

N64

Holland said today he’s going 7-3-1. Most likely scenario is Larson is unprotected and then Seattle gets a few days to talk to Larsson and if they don’t sign himt hen Oil get almost a week to close with Larsson

leadfarmer

He talked to Larsson about picking up Keith and now offered him a new contract for being a good sport for waiting until after expansion draft

OriginalPouzar

I’d be very surprised if Larsson doesn’t re-sign with the Oilers prior to free agency.

N64

Had to make an offer blind not seeing what Kraken might offer. So Larsson’s probably happy either way. Tend to think this will not go to UFA

leadfarmer

Forsling another name off the list. Low price contract for Florida and 3 year security for him if he fall back to earth
Also another feather in Bennings cap

Harpers Hair

Caleb Jones a low priced contract for Chicago.

Another feather in Holland’s cap.

leadfarmer

Replacement level player

Harpers Hair

And the Oilers have about 15 of them.

How can you pick just one?

McSorley33

Travis Yost with another great article out on the Oilers…..’curious’ trade.

https://www.tsn.ca/travis-yost-duncan-keith-trade-a-reminder-that-timing-is-everything-1.1668231

leadfarmer

I’ll be curious how Suter looks when he’s not being carried by Spurgeon. He’s definitely lost a couple steps

McSorley33

Don’t disagree….but under the right circumstances (and salary) might be a fair bet. Buyout Might motivate him for a season ….

Harpers Hair

The Oilers should have done this instead of being laser focused on Keith for 3 weeks.

Graves cap hit is only $3.75 million for another 2 seasons.

Sierra

Do the Oilers have a Maltsev to offer? JP?

Last edited 3 months ago by Sierra
Harpers Hair

Maltsev doesn’t appear to be on that level but Colorado must see something in him.

Harpers Hair

Colorado might have found Lavoie or Savoie to be of interest.
Since the Oilers don’t have a second round pick they might have had to up the player ante a bit.

godot10

The Oilers don’t have a 2nd round pick to offer either.

Harpers Hair

Check that…Graves cap hit is actually $3.2 million.

leadfarmer

Pretty fair trade.
Will see how he does being surrounded by much poorer help

leadfarmer

I find him pretty overrated actually
next year he will be a what happened to this guy footnote

OriginalPouzar

Bah – how many Cups and Norris’ has Graves won?

I’m being facetious but only partially – Holland probably preferred/prefers Keith over Graves as he’s assigning considerable value to those Cups and Norris’ and the experience Keith will bring.

Of course most of us (me included) would prefer Graves, in particular at their cap hits. I’m not so sure Holland does.

I do think Graves has become highly over-rated but, like most, I would prefer him to the 38 year old Keith – don’t think Holland would though…

Harpers Hair

Colorado now with $26 million in cap space.

Bowen Byram on an ELC replaces Graves on the second pairing with Connor Timmons and Justin Barron ready to step in.

Erik Johnson has waived his NMC so Sakic might send an asset to Seattle to select him freeing up another $6 million in cap space.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Curious trade. Avs could lose their two big-bodied dmen (Johnson to be left unprotected).

Last edited 3 months ago by Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve
Harpers Hair

Byram 6’1”

Timmins 6’2”

Barron 6’2”

All young and adding muscle.

leadfarmer

Something something elite D arrive early something something except when on other teams

Harpers Hair

Byram turned 20 a few days ago…something something.

leadfarmer

And sat in the press box doesn’t sound very early
Timmins is 23

leadfarmer

Almost 23

Harpers Hair

He was injured.

He’s already 3 seasons ahead of Bouchard and counting.

Harpers Hair

Timmins doesn’t project as an elite D.

He was a second round pick who lost an entire season to injury.

But got in the lineup in both the regular season and playoffs.

You seem to have a real problem grasping what an elite defenseman looks like.

I’m not surprised.

leadfarmer

Says the guy who was calling graves a top 10 D in the league

YYCOil

No retained salary? Pisssssh

Ryan

I wonder if Kenny even spoke with Sakic.

Harpers Hair

Of course he didn’t…he spent 3 weeks talking to Bowman.

leadfarmer

Why would he do that?
we have trouble moving the puck, especially if we are walking from Barrie. We don’t need a defensive defenseman who is a shinslayer in the offensive zone.

Ryan

Ha.

Name one shinslayer who’s put up over a point per hour at 5v5 for three seasons in a row.

I wouldn’t consider Graves quite in that category.

jp
Harpers Hair

Ryan Graves traded from Colorado to New Jersey for Maltsev and a 2nd round pick.

Harpers Hair

Mikael Maltsev is a 23 year old 6’3” 200 LW who scored 9 points in 33 games last season.

leadfarmer

Looks like a Podkolzin type

jp

Looks like Jersey paid pretty much exactly the same for Graves what the Oilers paid for Keith.

Bling

Hyman may be getting 7 or 8 years. I’m definitely out, and I can see why the Leafs are as well.

You want to win but this is a dangerous contract.

Material Elvis

All the UFA contracts with too much term come back to haunt the team who offered the deal. There are few exceptions. Holland has shown that he isn’t afraid to offer maximum term, which I find troubling. I wouldn’t be surprised if they are the team rumored to be offering Hyman 7years x $6M (if you believe these insiders/agents feeding the insiders).

Harpers Hair

Another fly in the ointment is that Vegas is exempt from the expansion draft so are in a position to “park” players that other teams don’t want to lose…for a price.

Since Vegas can go over the cap by 10% in the offseason, they could conceivably take on some significant contracts and deal them before the season starts.

Something to watch.

Harpers Hair

Be careful what you wish for.

Vegas has this expansion thing figured out.

OriginalPouzar

Its an odd comment to me given their cap hell situation and the reports today (LeBrun) that the Knights are looking at ways to open up cap space (including trading one of their goalies).

Harpers Hair

You’re underestimating the intelligence of Vegas management.

This is just an example of how they could do this…the actual player involved is irrelevant.

Let’s say Philadelphia doesn’t want to lose Voracek in the expansion draft for nothing so they trade him to Vegas for a pick or prospect.

Vegas can do this because they can be 10% over the cap in the offseason.

Vegas can have a deal in place to flip Voracek to another team after the draft and gets a better player, pick or prospect in return.

It costs them nothing except a parking space for a few days.

Identical to a 3 team trade.

OriginalPouzar

I understand the premise.

I don’t think they are going to do this.

Harpers Hair

Why not?

Harpers Hair

Some preliminary intel from Seattle broadcaster Ian Furness who is pretty plugged in to the Kraken.

He expects Seattle will take Jakob Voracek from Philadelphia.
Voracek has his best season ever when playing for Hakstol in Philadelphia.

He mentions that Voracek, a winger, is much more a set up guy who plays like a centre.

He also sees the Kraken taking RHD Troy Stetcher who played for Hakstol at UND.

jp

Targeting former players. Roundly criticized when Holland or Tippett do it.

lynn

Jujhar Khaira will probably be playing for a differnet NHL team for $800,000.

Reja

After he got his Noggin bounced for the 2nd time so quickly I figured the Oilers wouldn’t bring him back. This leaves a hole in the bottom 6 for toughness.

lynn

I’m sure Khaira will get multiple offers for a one-way contract for just above the league minimum. A change in scenery is probably the best option for Khaira.

Material Elvis

Not much of a hole; the guy shouldn’t be fighting anymore no matter who he plays for.

lynn

For a guy that has to fight at times, that is a signal for retirement. I hope Khaira makes some good choices for himself over the next couple of weeks.

OriginalPouzar

lynn

 Reply to Material Elvis

 July 15, 2021 5:18 pm

For a guy that has to fight at times, that is a signal for retirement. I hope Khaira makes some good choices for himself over the next couple of weeks.

I disagree with this narrative and speculative life advice. I presume that you have no more information than the rest of us? Assuming that’s true, we have no idea what Khaira’s medical records show and the risk of his continuing to play. From team accounts, the results of the incidents were not nearly as bad as they looked, Khaira was cleared after a multitude of tests by professionals and a stringent concussion protocol.

Khaira feels comfortable based on the advise, recommendations and reports of those that are actually in the know and experts.

Sidney Crosby was told to retire years ago and, from all info, his injuries were much much much more severe.

OriginalPouzar

He showed no ill-effects and was just as physical and engaged after he came back and in the playoffs.

OriginalPouzar

From accounts, the Oilers want him back but are looking for a lower AAV than the $1.3M – he’s unlikely to be qualified but I hope they can get him re-signed.

If he isn’t qualified (or re-signed prior to the expansion draft), its another nail in the Benson coffin.

Reja

I would rather Benson get a opportunity elsewhere then see his dream die wasting away in the minors like Marody.

YYCOil

Why is playing in the minors wasting away? Does the Electrican working at your home have his ticket?

OriginalPouzar

I’d rather keep the player that the org has drafted and developed over the last five years in the organization. He should have every opportunity to make the team and have an impact this fall. I think he can but its up to him.

Last year’s circumstances were what they were even if you refuse to acknowledge them.

Bling

I’m going to put this out there:

Landeskog and Hyman are likely to get paid their full freight, but for Hall the market appears somewhat muted. The model over at the Athletic has him coming in around 6.5 a year. Dom’s model has Hyman aging better than Hall, but Hall has been the more valuable player in 3 of the past 4 seasons.

https://theathletic.com/2705164/2021/07/14/nhl-free-agency-ranking-the-top-50-available-ufas/

This is a phenomenal chance to buy low on a legit star player. This happens very, very rarely. Yes Hall has declined (a bit), but all of the skills are there and he showed what he is capable of on a good team in a secondary role during his time in Boston.

Holloway can do what Hyman does within 1-2 years.

Bling

We know that Leavins is super-connected, in fact every time I bring it up he’s gotten yet another thing correct. He had Hyman as 1 and Hall as option 2 in one of his recent “9 things” columns. He also had Killorn at 3…oddly specific. I would link but I can’t find the article.

Agree with you that the wind is blowing the other way, but I suspect there are some real Hall boosters within the org and I hope they win the day.

Harpers Hair

Landeskog stands head and shoulders above with his stellar defensive work.

Bling

Landeskog could get 8 million per year and that’s starting to get a little pricey for my liking.

Material Elvis

Not too pricey for the Leafs media. They were speculating about possibly signing Landeskog, which seems far-fetched. $50M tied up in 5 forwards and $30M to fill out the rest of the roster? Was likely another TO clickbait article.

Harpers Hair

With Colorado clearing cap space today, I’d wager he will sign in Colorado for less.

OriginalPouzar

I have said exactly that – Holloway’s skill-set covers most of what Hyman’s does and Holloway will pass him within a couple of years (and likely surpass Hyman’s ceiling).

godot10

#TeamSaad Best chance for value for the money we are talking about.

defmn

Can’t find the link now but there was a sports reporter from the Boston area today posting on Twitter that Hall has stayed in Boston since the end of the season and is busy with a realtor looking for a place to buy.

Harpers Hair

Yeah…I saw that too.

Likely signs shortly after the expansion draft.

Dac189

Prediction:

Oilers make it to the Stanley Cup finals.
Keith makes an outlet pass to McDavid in game 7 triple OT scoring the GWG.

Holland gets interviewed right after the game, plastered with his shirt off.
“You expected me to get him for free?.
That’s the #1 bull”.
Chuggs a bud light Molson Canadian

Harpers Hair

If you believe that to be true you should slap down $100 on the Oilers right now.

https://www.oddsshark.com/nhl/stanley-cup-futures

Last edited 3 months ago by Harpers Hair
Scungilli Slushy

Landeskog es bueno, but he’s 29 this season. The term is the issue as Joe S is obviously seeing it. He isn’t likely a player that hits his mid 30s in top form still.

I’d happily go 7.5 x 5 dangling Connor at him. Move H E double hockey sticks and high water to clear cap and for the 3C and a back up.

They really should have dealt Marody for a pick a year or two ago, could use it now, they never liked him.

Redbird62

Landeskog is a really really good player, but the idea he is worth much more that Ryan Nugent Hopkins is difficult to support. His career points per game is .75 versus Nuge’s .73. Nuge has scored more on the PP, Landeskog more at 5 on 5. Landeskog is strictly a LW, but takes faceoffs (he is good at that), but he does not kill penalties at all. He is bigger and more rugged than Nuge, but he’s played only 8 more games than Nuge since 2015.

More importantly, since Nate MacKinnon has joined the league, a staggering almost 80% of Landeskog’s ice time 5 on 5 has been with Nate. And while together they do very well, but apart, MacKinnon still does well, but Landeskog has had a goal share of ~35-40% in most of those season without Mackinnon and it was only 33% this past season with Nate off the ice. Yes, if he plays with the OIlers, he would likely be with McDavid or Draisaitl depending on who he with better. Prior to the last 2 seasons, Hopkins got very little time with either Leon or Connor (and Hall and Eberle were long gone) and even in the last 2 seasons ), 5 on 5 he has spent 27% of his time with Connor, 35% with Leon, 1% with both and 37% without either (and his goal share in that last category is about the same as Landeskog’s without MacKinnon over 2 seasons despite Colorado having more depth beyond their big 3 than Edmonton).

On balance I think Landeskog is worth a little more than Nuge right now, but not much. I think Sakic knows all this and that’s why his 8 year offer is alleged to be only slightly higher than for Nuge. The cap number goes up as the term gets shorter, but this Board would have freaked if Nuge was given 5 x $7.5 million so it should also consider that contact to Landeskog to be a fairly big overpayment as well.

Who knows though how much of these public negotiations are all just theater to throw off Seattle and the NHL on the true availability (or lack thereof) for all these pending UFA’s.

Redbird62

First off, I already conceded he should be paid more. Second, right now, Landeskog’s bargaining position relative to Sakic is identical to Nuge’s relative to Holland 2 weeks ago up to when Seattle has the 3 days to talk to him, and then for the few days after that when free agency opens on July 28. Joe is competing against the same possibility that Holland was that the player will want to test the market and get that UFA bump and seems to be offering only slightly more than what Holland and Nuge agreed to for 8 years. The only difference between Landeskog, if he gets to July 28, and Nuge, is he will actually get to see what teams are willing to pay as opposed to speculating as he considers Sakic’s offer. Holland had no leverage on Nuge, just a brief exclusivity period. Maybe there is a bidding war for Landeskog because someone else may value him more than Sakic, or has more cap room than Sakic, but if Landeskog gets $7.5 million x 5, my bet is there will be significant buyer’s remorse. I don’t believe the spread between UFA’s signing after the deadline vs re-upping just prior to becoming UFA is that great (with the exception of hometown discounts – though Tavares took less to go Toronto than what the Islanders offered him) There can be a wider spread in value if you get the player to sign the extension earlier like they might do with Nurse in the prior summer, or even by the trade deadline How much do you think Nuge could have gotten in a 5 year deal if he’d gone to UFA?

Last edited 3 months ago by Redbird62
Redbird62

Oh I definitely agree that if he signs for 4 he will get more than $5.5 million. At 4 years, I’d even go $6.5 million maybe approaching $7 million. But I’d have also paid Nuge over $6 million if he had wanted a just 4 year deal as well. At 5 years, the price comes down, maybe $6 million at most for Nuge and a little more ($6.25 million) for Landeskog, but not $7.5 million. I think at their ages, knocking off $375,000 to $500,000 of AAV for each additional year is reasonable versus the having to add $$ to more term from young RFA’s. I’d do 6 X 6 for Landeskog, but not for Hyman. Be interesting to see where the UFA market is actually at this year. Post pandemic, flat cap, and Seattle. More complexities than a typical year.

OriginalPouzar

Yes, Landeskog will be paid more but that is quite the eye-opening post by Redbird vis-av-is their relative values and I think him.

Paddy Morans Jockstrap

One of the positives of the Keith trade is that it delays, but does not block Sammy and Broburg. Signing Hyman longterm right after signing RNH most certainly does block Holloway, Lavoie and Benson. Another 2 year deal would be pretty much perfect to give the kids time to grow into the role. A guy like JVR would be perfect if highly unlikely.

Reja

It’s not the player Holland had Bowman by the balls but it was Holland who ended up with the reach around.

TheGreatBigMac

That’s one of the positives of Hyman, he can effectively play RW. He does not block Holloway, Benson or Lavoie. If by some crazy good fortune we have too many top6 wingers, we’ve finally unlocked RNH 3C mode! This is also true for Coleman. According to capfriendly Saad is a LW/RW but I don’t know how much RW Saad has played and how it’s gone. Hall is LW only.

Last edited 3 months ago by TheGreatBigMac
OriginalPouzar

Yes, I have expressed concern about a potential longer term deal for big money to a LW with Nuge now signed for term. I almost think a Tatar for one year (or two) may be beneficial of if Coleman could come in cheap enough that, when past by Holloway, he can play 3LW and his cap hit isn’t unreasonable.

Turning Tikkanese

Let’s look at this again…

If Keith performs to expectations, we ride out the two years with adequate cover as our promising young LD develop properly. Good outcome.

If Keith is subpar or being passed by our promising young LD, we encourage him to retire, offering a job in player development, scouting, coaching or even with the business side, as his post playing goals dictates. We give him a sweetener in salary on his new role to make him whole on the money side, except this is now not a player salary nor is it cap impacting.

He gets to transition to life after playing hockey, we get the Cap recapture credit… everybody happy except Chicago. Key is making it preferable for him to retire if he can no longer contribute at a level that is appropriate.

flyfish1168

I wish KH had a little more patience. Waiting for the buyout season to begin would have given us leverage along with making the hawks nervous. Suter or Yandle would have been good bargaining chips. All the CAP space we can save is important. I really wish he values CAP space more instead of throwing it around like that

Reja

Treliving should thank Holland because he has managed to have driven up the prize for meatball Gio.

Harpers Hair

Most likely Seattle gets him for free.

Reja

If it’s Lucic wouldn’t that be a kick in the nuts. I would never hear the end of it from my Flames fan buddies.

YYCOil

Is this the same Holland that waited 12 months for JP to sign a 2 year value contract?

Reja

How about the crazy Canucks after day 1 of the British open Connors only 4 off and Hughes 2 back of the lead by Louie.

flyfish1168

How about Phil. Showing his age?

Sierra

LT writes: “No one is denying Keith’s ability

Is this true?

I have heard and read a lot about the analytical measures showing Keith as barely a replacement level player, or worse.

What are the measures supporting that Keith still has the ability to successfully play quality minutes?

OriginalPouzar

Yes, I think some agree that Keith likely still has game but there are many, many, many, on this platform and others, that question his ability to be even a plus 3LD let alone a 2LD.

Redbird62

Staples has an interesting piece at the Cult of Hockey today. He reviewed various Chicago and area’s media post season assessments of Keith’s 2021 season conducted prior to any trade talk. Overall, they are fairly positive.

Bling

The goalie splits are definitely encouraging.

Keith-Larsson could be a good pairing because Keith needs help defensively and Larsson has to play with someone who can move the puck.

OriginalPouzar

LT, you don’t have to convince me – I don’t disagree with you that he will be a useful player and I hope he is a legit 2LD.

I’m only speaking to your original statement that “no one is denying Keith’s ability” – I’m not denying it (I really don’t know at this point) but many many many are. There is a big discrepancy with respect to opinions on how much he can, or will, help the team, if any.

Sierra

Just one example LT courtesy of J Willis:
By several analytic measures, he was also a sub-replacement level player.

https://mobile.twitter.com/AlCimaglia/status/1415120309225725954

and there were many such similar posts on your site here leading up to the trade.

Last edited 3 months ago by Sierra
Sierra

I didn’t say anything about angry; you did when I’m trying to discuss your morning comment that “no one is denying Keith’s ability.”

Last edited 3 months ago by Sierra
YYCOil

Keith had NO leverage he attached to the CBH and is signed to a legal contract – he plays or retires if Bowman decides to keeps him.

Holland had a little leverage – Keith wanted to come to Edmonton. But the story that a player says I want a trade and either GM is completely handcuffed to make a deal is crazy talk. All through the JP negotiations- Holland consistently said he was only going to meet the players request -if it worked for the Oilers.

Bowman had all the leverage – he had a legal contract with Keith. To test that who can take Keith name off the market?

Material Elvis

This doesn’t strike me as correct.

Keith asked for a trade to a specific, limited number of teams. That severely limits Bowman’s leverage. If the list of 4 teams all had their left defense filled, how many assets would Bowman have had to add to move Keith’s cap hit? Alternatively, he would have had to deny Keith the trade. Bowman’s only leverage was with Keith; he had little to no leverage on Holland. I think that Holland and Tippett wanted the veteran so badly that Bowman walked into a perfect scenario.

pts2pndr

Keith had the option to retire leaving Chicago with about 8 million in cap recovery and nothing to show for it. Bowman would have lost a D wanted to protect. There was leverage that was not used.

OriginalPouzar

I don’t think Keith is looking to retire now – its clear he wants to keep on playing. sure, that option was there but I don’t think it was real leverage.

Also, I’m not sure how much overall leverage there was there in general – I don’t think this is like the Tarasenko situation where the relationship is broken. I presume that Keith and the Hawks are very amicable its just that, for logistics reasons, Keith wants to be elsewhere.

Do we know that Keith wouldn’t have come back to play in Chicago if they weren’t able to move him?

Don’t get me wrong, Holland overpaid because he over-valued the player (I believe) but I’m not positive that Bowman couldn’t have backed away (as Holland should have, clearly, it seems).

pts2pndr

It was a pressure that Keith could use to assure he was traded to where he wanted to go. Did Holland ever speak with Keith’s agent with a remark that he would really like to have his client but due to cap there had to be some compromise on Chicago’s ask!

OriginalPouzar

Fair enough – I have read (and heard) plenty of the same about the player himself – replacement level, or below, etc.

Material Elvis

Also, Keith had a brutal PDO in the second half of the season, which can really sewer goal share numbers.

Redbird62

Here is a piece provided on Sportsnet written by sportslogiq, that was published on the 5th before they knew where Keith would end up.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/analyzing-impactful-duncan-keith-new-team/

Sportlogiq is a professional analytics firm, paid large sums of money by a large number of the teams in the NHL (and other sports), to do comprehensive data gathering and analysis on every player in the NHL. They go way beyond the data on Naturalstattrick or the NHL website to assess players. They have several trained people gathering comprehensive data on every play in every game. Still not perfect, but it is leaps and bounds ahead of the analysis done by most of the amateur analytics folks that right opinion pieces on blogs or even paid media sites. They are not the only professional analytics company but they have a very good reputation. Gregor has used them a few times, particularly to shatter the Oiler fan narrative that Nurse can’t pass or generate offense.

In their assessment, Keith could help Edmonton as a 2nd pair defenseman in Klefbom’s absence. Their opening tagline in the article “Can Duncan Keith still play? Yes, Yes, he can.”

Sierra

Thanks for that.

And from J. Willis at The Athletic:

The key number there is the red “1” at the top of the page. According to Evolving-Hockey’s expected goals model, Keith was in the bottom one percent both defensively and overall among NHL defencemen last year. By these charts, he’s a riverboat gambler who gives up way more than he creates and a liability in shorthanded situations.

https://theathletic.com/2704006/2021/07/13/duncan-keith-by-the-numbers-what-are-the-chances-the-former-norris-winner-bounces-back-with-the-oilers/?amp#click=https://t.co/CpjOZKudHW

Eh Team

I wonder if the play with Keith is to match him with McDavid at 5×5, much like Barrie was. That played Barrie to his strengths.

Now that was Nurse-Barrie which obviously can’t be done with Keith. So maybe Keith-Larsson playing with McDavid.

Nurse is better support for lessor forward lines.

OriginalPouzar

Larsson is the team’s key “McDavid-off” player. At least he was last season when he spent a whopping 16% of his time with Connor (that’s at 5 on 5 – it would be less overall as they played separate special teams).

Sierra

But that would then put Keith out with elites and have him at high ice time. The analytical measures don’t show well for him in that role.

Redbird62

I put far more stock in the assessment that Sportslogiq puts together (when someone else makes it available – they are not cheap) than what evolving hockey puts out. I have said before xGF/xGA is a pretty crude metric for evaluating individual players especially using the data that they and Naturalstattrick use. Their analyses misses so much detail on what contributes to a goal, that it can’t be relied upon for assessing individuals. It seems to rely over 50% on shot distant which is fine when assessing over all NHL scoring and probably somewhat useful on a team wide basis, but the narrower you make the assessment the worse it gets.

Some of these folks also claim Keith played sheltered minutes getting less time against elite players. First off, the criteria for who is considered an elite player is somewhat problematic which puckiq even concedes. A few seasons back, based on their criteria, Kucherov didn’t qualify as elite and there are other examples as well. Second, they make the assumption the coach is sheltering Keith (can’t play the tough minutes), but his most common forward line mates, were Kane, Debrincat and Kubalik (unquestionably the Blackhawks number one line.. Do they think the coach was sheltering them too? At least half the time, the coach doesn’t get to decide who he gets to line up against, and he may have other reasons for how he lines them up anyway.

Sierra

What’s positive in the Article you linked? They say in it that Keith can still play, but they don’t say at what ability level and against what competition. They do post some analytics, but I don’t see any that are streaming success, and certainly not “undeniable success.”

Sierra

Which numbers would those be? In your reply above you link to 3 SportLogiq pages and summarize them as “Productive against the soft parade” and “caved against mid-level competition” and the numbers gain at elites are no better.

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual

Consider me among the #GarlandOrRiot crowd. Down with democracy; burn the heretics!

jtblack

Next 8 Years.

1 CUP.

2-3 PENNANTS

Die a Happy man 😇

Harpers Hair

CapFriendly Depth Charts (@CF_DepthCharts) Tweeted:
2021 Unrestricted Free Agents ranked by points last season:

Gabriel Landeskog – 52
Tyson Barrie – 48
David Krejci – 44
Alex Ovechkin – 42
Dougie Hamilton – 42
Mike Hoffman – 36
Taylor Hall – 33
Zach Hyman – 33
Alec Martinez – 32
Blake Coleman – 31
Tomas Tatar – 30

https://twitter.com/CF_DepthCharts/status/1412852518330064896?s=20

chrisco stu

I for one think that Barrie would make a fantastic left wing.

Sierra

What about Barrie makes you think he could be a forward, especially at this stage?

DieHard

I’ve accepted the Keith trade, wish the 3rd was going the other way. I think Larsson get 6 years at 20M. Defense set for years. Need our forwards to pop. Don’t trust free agents.

Ryan

Gord help us if Holland signs that contract.

Funny side note. On the day of the Keith trade, Lowetide had a post on Twitter, “Dear NHL. Do Something.”

I hadn’t realized that he posted that before the trade.

For a split second, I thought he wanted the league to intervene on the Oilers behalf for the Keith trade.

Last edited 3 months ago by Ryan
Litke 94

The Star reporting that the Oilers, Flames, and Canucks are the front-runners for Hyman. So that’s great, we will be trying to outbid our direct competition.

Check down Kenny, this is going to be an u-g-l-y contract. Love Hyman, but a max term contract is going to be a disaster. I am way more concerned with this possibility than the Keith trade, by a lot.

If the rumours are true that the latest contract tabled to Landeskog is juts a bit higher than what RNH got, you do everything in your power to best that and go get him.

PokeCheck

Hopefully, we pull a Markstrom and help raise the bids before shopping elsewhere.

GordieHoweHatTrick

If Kenny can do that, I may forgive him for caving on Keith

Harpers Hair

The danger is the only way you can drive up the price is to actually make an offer…and it might be accepted.

Darth Tu

Good old eBay syndrome, eh?

PokeCheck

No “takebacksies”?

jtblack

That exact Roster above I like.

Conner has a winger, which should.mean better 1st line.

Line 2 is Good.

Line 3 is better.

Holloway prob comes up by X mas.

D is fine. And added a useful back up for Smith.

If KH can pull that off, i think the season looks promising

jtblack

The Roster youl aid out is Def better and more complete than years past. And with the 3 + blue chips bubbling under in the Bake, by Jan the team could habe 3 out scoring lines for the 1st time in forever..

Harpers Hair

Andy Strickland (@andystrickland) Tweeted:
Told the #GoAvsGo have made three formal offers to Gabriel Landeskog since the end of last season (19-20). 4, 5, and 8 year offers with the last offer coming in just above the 8 yr. $41 ($5.125) contract given to Oilers Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. The 4 and 5 yr offers came in higher.

https://twitter.com/andystrickland/status/1415731164300693505?s=20

Harpers Hair

J (@Account4hockey) Tweeted:
Dave Pagnotta reporting that they Leafs are trying to move Kerfoot’s 3.5M via SEA or another team and will pursue Landeskog if they do. Landeskog spends part of his off-season in the GTA. Also reports COL are currently offering him an AAV of $5-5.5M.

https://twitter.com/Account4hockey/status/1415504845683953664?s=20

Ben

How good of an under-control goalie could Holland get for the 1st rounder vs. drafting Cossa and praying for 5 years?

Would Georgiev be worth it (via Seravalli)?

godot10

If you want Draisaitl and McDavid to sign another contract with the organization, you draft Cossa. You need an elite cost controlled goaltender on the verge and in the bag when they are due their extensions.

The Oilers are bringing back Smith. There are loads of backups to 1B’s in the market as UFA’s Draft the potential elite goaltender, don’t use the pick to trade for a meh one.

ArmchairGM

Fully agree with your 1st paragraph, but I’m going to push back a bit on the 2nd. Bringing back Smith could be a solution for 1 year and 1 year only. What happens after that? Well a quick look at the UFA goalies available in 2022 tells me that THIS summer is the time to get a 4-5 year solution. Next summer’s list is very weak, and many of the guys listed will be re-signed prior to July 1st anyhow.

The time is now.

godot10

The option for Smith’s partner is 1) Koskinen or 2) Buyout Koskinen after signing a UFA like Driedger

ArmchairGM

Or run Ullmark – Koskinen.

Bling

I agree with drafting Cossa but there’s no way he’s available when the Oilers pick.

leadfarmer

Hell no!!!
Georgiev is not worth a first rounder you kidding
I would ask about Kahkonen though if Wild are indeed protecting Talbot

pts2pndr

Drafting a quality goalie prospect ensures that we will have a very strong back end for the foreseeable future at a cost effective cap. There should always be an eye to the future if the team expects to stay credible. The roller coaster has to stop!

Harpers Hair

Fun fact:

If Shea Weber retires, Nashville will have a cap recapture penalty of $25 million in 2025-26

https://www.tsn.ca/shea-weber-montreal-canadiens-nashville-predators-1.1668140?tsn-amp

leadfarmer

Why would he retire now?
He gets to collect a pay check to hang out on LTIR
Poile is breathing a sigh of relief
also that cap number is not correct.
they got rid of that

leadfarmer

Cap recapture penalties max out at players cap hit

Ryan

That’s correct.

Darth Tu

It depends on whether the League/NHLPA rule that he is LTIR eligible doesn’t it? If he’s not then the option is retire, which would result in the Preds getting dinged by a close to $5 mill per year cap hit.

OriginalPouzar

He’ll be “eligible for LTIR” – if he’s hurt, that’s a non issue.

The issue of concern is if MTL will get approved for him to be exempt from the expansion draft…… better not.

Darth Tu

Surely it’s moot at this point? I can’t see Seattle taking him from Montreal even if he wasn’t injured going by who else would be exposed from their team. Without looking at the roster, surely Allen is a likely option? Or talk to Tatar/Armia in free agency and that becomes your Montreal selection (I think that’s how it works). Forward is where the pickings are going to be slim for Seattle.

OriginalPouzar

Its probably moot.

I would think they will lose Jake Allen.

Darth Tu

I think the Kraken are going to have 3 decent-good goal tenders and a decent-good defence. It’s all down to what they can do forward wise, is there a Marchessault out there this year?

OriginalPouzar

I agree with you (and its a primary reason why I think Benson is going to be selected).

Reja

I’ll take all the dissing I’ve done to you Holland if you can land Saad. Phone Keith than He’ll invite Saab onto houseboat on the Shuswap for 3 days of nonstop fun in the sun. On day 3 while Saab is feeling no pain I’ll phone him and give him the pitch. Mr. Saab you’ll have the chance of a lifetime playing along side Connor and Leon and scoring 30 plus will be your new norm.

Durag

Saab’s got a great motor and lots of tread left on the tires.

Reja

This is peak year for Connor and Leon if we can add Saab and the golden retriever Hollaway to our top 6 Connor and Leon are going to explode and Oiler fans will be the envy of the league.

OriginalPouzar

Didn’t Keith have to sell the houseboat in order to finance his child support payments?

Reja

He’s using Weber’s who owns the town of Sicamous the houseboat capital of the World.

MADOIL

Anybody listening to the Stauffer show? How many days is he going to keep banging the “Keith is a good trade” story. He keeps asking the same questions (slightly paraphrased) to every one of his guests and all of them provide the same answer – Keith is still good. I think the majority of the posters here and fans of the oil don’t have a big beef on the player himself – it is the fact that Holland got schooled on the transaction (Cap hit / 3rd round pick going the other way) that has them all worked up.
Wish big Bob would move on from this now – we get it, you’re being a good employee but please there are many other things happening throughout the league. The trade is done and nothing is going to change till we start playing. Lets talk about other things, please.

JimmyV1965

Even more disturbing is his non-stop talk of Hyman at $6 x 6.

GordieHoweHatTrick

OhOh

Reja

He’s been sucking on Holland so hard it’s embarrassing. The bottom line is Keith wanted or needed to be in Canada close to the Okanagan. Was Holland bidding with himself if so then we are hooped.

Randle McMurphy

COME ON! ….where’s all the pre-expansion draft list moves???

OriginalPouzar

Arvidson and the Parise, Suter, Yandle buyouts so far.

Scungilli Slushy

Pro sports is the arena of dreams.

No team should have a fatalist’s logic or dream.

Yes it’s hard to win it all. But it is essential that you believe you can.

Even if the team is not good, the first step toward the dream is believing you can win it all and start winning more now to get there.

It’s a main difference between teams that underperform their rosters (Buffalo) and over perform (Montreal).

Yes it’s hard to win, but having several league top players that are younger weights the dice as Godot said.

For me the low bar is three Cups. Connor matching the Hawks and Sid. I want more.

Its more on Holland than the players now. It’s the support that will make that happen, it is the difference maker in getting over the top.

Top players often saw off. But you hope having the best players means that they can get a little edge there, an put the knife in when it counts most. Keith actually mentioned this.

I hope he’s tight with Saad!

Reja

Go team Saad. Go team Saad. He Scores 30 playing with Leon and Connor. Book it!

misfit

Trading Jones for Keith doesn’t really change the expansion draft list as both would need to be protected. Signing Larsson beforehand changes them in a big way.

We go from a pretty straightforward 7-3-1 to a scenario where we’re looking at exposing one of Yamamoto or Bear. I’d honestly rather risk Larsson signing elsewhere.

wchay

Of course I want us to win Stanley. Multiple. But if we simply accept the law of averages (lotta teams in the NHL. Not the 21 when I was watching the boys on the bus), then we must realize that it is improbable. So, after 15 years of (mostly) hell, then if we can create an environment of sustained excellence, be a top contender and go on a few decent runs such that Connor and Leon re-up, and others see Edmonton as a positive destination… that’s acceptable. While I’d be a bit disappointed to not win a Cup, developing sustained excellence during Connor’s current contract would be acceptable. There are worse fates than being the next SJ Sharks.

Last edited 3 months ago by wchay
OriginalPouzar

This roster has about $850,000 in cap room. Oscar Klefbom is on LTIR, Kyle Turris sent to Bakersfield and Mikko Koskinen traded to Nashville for Mark Borowiecki (no money retained, Borowiecki sent to the minors). James Neal is bought out.

Unless they are able to get cap compliant on day 1 (by sending up to 3 players to the AHL) and then placing Klef on LTIR then, no, they won’t have any cap space.

If they need to use off-season LTIR to get cap compliant then their LTIR reserves vis-a-vis Klefbom are capped at the amount they are over the cap on day one – they won’t have that $850k

godot10

There are several games that can be played.

Swap Turris with McLeod Day -1 roster.

Waive Turris and Shore Day -1, Send Turris, Shore, Bouchard, and Lagesson to the minors Day 0, and have Klefbom on the declared roster.

Once roster declared, Klefbom to LTIR, call up McLeod Shore Bouchard and Lagesson.

I think that is pretty close.

No Bouchard or Kassian on the declared roster also works. Turris instead of McLeod on Day 0. Klefbom and Turris on the declared roster. Klef to LTIR, waive Turris, call up Kassian Bouchard and McLeod.

OriginalPouzar

There are indeed several ways to do it but it may or may not be do-able – they weren’t able to do it last year and had to use off-season LTIR with Klef to get compliant (IIRC).

With respect to your suggestions:

1) LT’s roster (with the $850K in potential cap space) already has Turris in the minors so the Turris-McLeod swap isn’t available.

2) From what I remember from last season, if Bouchard is not on the opening night roster but is called up, there are cap implications re: his performance bonuses. I don’t know exactly how it works but it was an issue/point last season.

3) Don’t see them waiving Kass. They are going to protect him and lose Benson because of it. They (over) value him and don’t think they will waive him.

OriginalPouzar

As I said, they would need to get cap compliant for day 1 (with Klefbom) which may or may not be do-able depending on where they are with the cap. Waiving Kass would reduce the cap by $1.125M for day one – doing that with 3 player may or may not be enough.

Of course, I don’t think they’ll waive Kassian – they should, but they won’t. They are going to protect him in expansion and lose Benson because of it. Will they then offer him to the entire league for free? I think they value the player, at his current cap hit (which they shouldn’t but they do).

OriginalPouzar

I think that opening night roster may have to include Holloway (or other) in place of Benson – at this point, I can’t see Benson surviving expansion. I think he should be protected over Kassian and Archibald but I don’t see it happening.

I’m not so sure we don’t see Samorukov at 3LD, Russell as 7D and Lagesson in the AHL (he won’t get claimed I don’t think). Very well could be wrong and they may want Sammy starting on the farm.

TheGreatBigMac

Agree 100%! Sami has spent a good amount of time in the minors he should be close to ready and it would be helpful to see what Broberg and Sami can do sooner than later. I want to find out what Benson is as an Oiler, protect him over Kassian and Archibald both good players but replaceable.

Sierra

It would be wonderful if Samorukov makes it’s as 3LD, but it will be very risky to have an all-rookie 3rd pairing. Perhaps we see Keith with Bouchard and Sami with Bear, Larsson or a yet to be acquired DMan

ArmchairGM

I don’t think for a second that Samorukov or Holloway will be penciled into a starting role by the organization, but I’m not confident that Holland will be able to build a roster strong enough to effectively block either guy. I think it’ll come down to training camp battles and both players (as well as Broberg) could start with the team given a strong camp.

OriginalPouzar

My Holloway comment was mainly a secondary point – the main point was that I don’t think Benson escapes expansion.

1) I think he’ll be left unprotected in favor of Kass and Archie

2) There will be tons of goalies and d-men available to the Kraken so I don’t think they’ll take Lagesson or Russell (or Skinner if Holland is silly and signs Smith prior to the expansion draft)

Benson seems like the logical pick and I will be disappointed.

I also don’t pencil Holloway in to the lineup – I won’t preclude him from “making the team” but, if we know anything, performance by higher end rookies in camp and early exhibition (in particular big guys that can skate) does not equate to NHL readiness.

OriginalPouzar

Many seem to be against a Tatar signing due to his non-usage in the playoffs in recent years. It seems many are also fully on-board with a sizeable contract to Zack Hyman and there are overlap between these two groups.

Is everyone aware that Zack Hyman has been unproductive in the playoffs through his entire career including 1 point in 7 games this past season?

Hyman’s career playoff performance make Nuge look like a playoff savant.

Don’t get me wrong, I’d like Hyman (although not at the likely price) but I feel like, if Tatar isn’t “an option” due to playoffs, Hyman shouldn’t be either….. no?

winchester

No, the comparison is not valid. It’s not about production, it’s different. Some quality or lack of quality that coaches see is holding out Tatar from even playing. Who knows, he could out score Hyman, but he does not even play.

If you knew the why behind these decisions to bench him, and thought you could fix them, then take a chance.

For me, two other orgs seen something. What was it. Just like if a player was bought out like Turris.

Do i I think my org is smarter than the other two and figure the player out? I’m not confident in my org. I am confident in Connor and Leon skills and a cagey vet might re-blossom.

But again, like so many players, if he can help the team at a palatable cost then sure, give it a try on a short and sweet deal.

OriginalPouzar

Fair enough but if the premise is that Tatar can help you in the regular season but not in the playoffs so he shouldn’t be signed, I think there should be extreme buyer beware on Hyman who hasn’t helped in the playoffs in his career.

OriginalPouzar

No one is denying Keith’s ability, although where he’ll play in the lineup is open for discussion, it’s the cost that got the reaction.

I think that, clearly, the loss of the entire $5.5M of cap space is the primary issue among Oilers fans but, to the above, I think there is a sizeable portion that do indeed doubt Keith’s ability to contribute in the lineup. Most of this seems based off numbers, and numbers only (which can only tell us so much – see Seth Jones and poor “numbers”) but many seem to be denying Keith’s current ability.

Dac189

The numbers also told us that Draisaitl was the worst defensive player in the league and that Matt Benning was the Oilers best defenseman.

Analytics are great but they often lack context or can lead to incorrect conclusions.
Not to mention the absolute chaos that is hockey. Probably the hardest sport in the world for analytics.

Last edited 3 months ago by Dac189
The Trade Guy

I didn’t see the last few days discussions, but I do agree with LT that Ken Holland inherited a team in tough straights.

However, Chiarelli inherited an almost perfect slate. Cap was in a good place, lots of picks, the key players signed and he immediately face planted and just did a HORRIBLE job over his term. Really sewered Connor’s ELC and set us back years.

My frustration is that Ken is now making his own baggage. I didn’t see many people want to sign Kassian (I didn’t), and nobody wanted this Keith deal. This is more and more his team and his management of the draft picks and caps seems to be putting a ceiling on what this team can accomplish.

To LT’s first question. I want to see this team win at least one cup. For a long time we wanted Aces and Kings to go with our Jacks and 10s lineup, and now we have a couple of Aces (including the ultimate one) and to not win a cup with McDavid is such a massive failure to Katz and his management team. Even if McDavid re-signed I don’t think I could bear to watch him not win it all. All the greats have won it all.

Really no excuse.

Hairbag

I hope Jones develops well and turns into a top 4 defenseman but he is nowhere near that now. 300 games for a defenseman seems to be the consensus for finding out what you have – Jones is at 95 – seems like he is going to need 2 more seasons to figure things out on a normal development curve. The Oilers don’t have time for that, they need to start winning now. Also the Oilers have young studs coming behind (Broberg and Samorukov) that have a way higher ceiling than Jones. Jones was never destined to be an Oiler long term. He is also never going to be even 75% of Duncan Keith – which I would gladly accept right now considering all the intangibles he brings.

As for the salary retention – serious question – what do people think would have been acceptable? $1million? $2million??

The tough guys that incinuate that they would have gotten a better deal can stop anytime (including Nugent-Bowmen) – I get that it makes for good entertainment but it’s time to step into reality. Ken Holland has been doing this for more than a quarter century, has an excellent track record and maybe, just maybe he knows a few details behind the scene that the rest of the world doesn’t know – Ya think! Criticism is fine but this has gone above and beyond – $1-2million retained on Duncan Keith isn’t going to affect what the Oilers are planning to do this summer, they have many other bullets in the chamber.

I don’t post often but couldn’t stand the one sided narrative any longer…..

Coiler

A well thought out statement.

Sierra

Do you not agree that Holland should have much leverage in the Keith trade? If so, do you agree that taking on Keith’s full salary while also giving up assets is tough to reconcile with having said leverage?

Coiler

I think Holland definately had the leverage and didn’t use it. When your organization goes old school, as they did with Holland, you have to accept that his mentality and approach would be different.
Maybe with someone like an Yzerman, Sakic, or boy blunder out of Toronto, they would have pounded Bowman. That’s not Holland. He went for the known commodity and cost certainty. For better or for worse.

Eh Team

I think DNB and Willis and a lot of main stream media were totally right. Only media people on board with the trade are Spector, Stauffer and the like.

50% retention and then you can play Keith with Bouchard on the 3rd pair. That’s where he slots based on performance.

winchester

Listen Hairbag, boy that just doesn’t sound right does it? Haha

I think we are at a critical tipping point. Each move critical.

Its fair to critique a trade. Just like a car or similar asset I might acquire, when I ask myself if I felt I got a good deal I think “could I get back what I paid for this?”

You should do the same. Could you move Keith today to only one team in the NHL and get similar value back?

Anyway, post more and share.

Material Elvis

Bowman should have retained at least $2M. In a flat cap world, contract value is extremely important. Overspending creates too many weak links in the lineup.

buck yoakam

I keep expecting to hear/see the larsson signing…please!…for sure by friday sometime?