If this is goodbye, I’m going to miss Adam Larsson playing for the Oilers a long, long time. He represented a throwback player-type, tough as nails and all about coverage and defending. I’m not certain Larsson convinced all of the fan base of his quality, he came here under difficult circumstances. For me, whatever disappointment felt at first blush gave way to a five-year appreciation for his rugged play and sacrifice.
Adam Larsson bled for the Oilers and you. If this is goodbye, I wish him well. If this is goodbye.
THE ATHLETIC!
I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here’s the latest!
- New Lowetide: Why Dominik Kahun is the best Oilers expansion option for the Kraken
- Lowetide: 5 players outside the NHL who could help the Oilers
- New DNB: Adam Larsson and free agency? Who’s on the expansion list?
- New DNB: Oilers talking to Zach Hyman’s camp
- Lowetide: Lessons learned from Oilers’ previous drafts
- Lowetide: What did the Oilers sacrifice in sending Caleb Jones to Chicago in the Duncan Keith trade?
- Jonathan Willis: Duncan Keith, by the numbers
- DNB: How Ken Holland’s overpay for Duncan Keith limits the Oilers’ offseason options
- Lowetide: 10 free agents for the Oilers to target this offseason
- Jonathan Willis: Yes or no? Have your say on 10 hypothetical Oilers trades
- Lowetide: Is this the year the Oilers find a world-class agitator in the draft?
- Lowetide: Which draft prospects will be available when the Oilers pick at No. 19?
- Lowetide: Oilers 2021-22 roster projection, including trade and free agent targets
- DNB: How do Oilers fans feel about their team’s 2020-21 season?
- Lowetide: What is a reasonable trade price for Oilers to pay for Duncan Keith?
- Lowetide: Will the Oilers draft from the OHL after a season that never happened?
- Lowetide: Finding the ideal No. 3 centre for the Edmonton Oilers
- New DNB: What I’m hearing about the Oilers offseason
- Lowetide: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins’ future value to the Oilers will be defined by his adaptability
- DNB: How re-signing Ryan Nugent-Hopkins for eight years could help and hurt the Oilers
- DNB: Five offseason scenarios that could upend the Oilers’ best-laid plans
- Lowetide: Why Oilers defenceman Evan Bouchard is poised to exceed expectations
- Jonathan Willis: How the Oilers could make a Jack Eichel-level trade happen this offseason
- Lowetide: The 7 Oilers roster spots GM Ken Holland must improve this offseason
- DNB: Ten teams the Oilers should be targeting for trades ahead of the Kraken expansion draft
- Lowetide: Why huge Oil Kings goalie Sebastian Cossa could be the perfect first-round fit for the Oilers
MY KRAKEN DRAFT
I wanted to draft a good team with plenty of tradeable assets, and to contend for the playoffs. I have 22 contracts, the cap is $61,705,000 and there’s just shy of $20 million to sign various UFA and RFA. More later.
I was going to draft Dougie Hamilton and Gabriel Landeskog, sign them, and then fill in but the money runs out really fast and for our purposes I wanted to see how many good players were possible. The Kraken should absolutely sign Hamilton and Landeskog. My “keepers who aren’t getting traded” are Gourde, Bean, Driedger and one of Vanecek or Kahkonen. If I can sign McCabe or Oleksiak, then Giordano is dealt. I’m keeping DeMolo, Kukan and Bean for at least one season, maybe the deadline if the offer is gold. I like this team.
OILERS POSSIBLE ROSTER WITH NEW INFO
Frank Seravalli was on the DFO podcast last night (and Dusty this morning) with some news. Looks like Zack Kassian may be dealt (I’m thinking for a pick, with Edmonton signing Alex Chiasson), Jujhar Khaira is the expansion loss. Daniel Nugent-Bowman reported on Friday at The Athletic, and Frank also said last night he’s hearing Adam Larsson is closer to leaving. Frank says Tyson Barrie is edging closer to staying. Wow. What might that look like?
There’s about $3 million left with Klefbom on LTIR, Kassian is with the Rangers in exchange for their third-round selection, Borocop came over from Nashville in the Koskinen trade.
Edmonton doesn’t have a RH shutdown blue, so the goalies are going to see tougher chances. I don’t see a way around it, Larsson’s don’t grow on trees. Robert Bortuzzo has already been mentioned, but Puck IQ tells us he’s never faced the kind of load Larsson did every year.
This should bring security to Ethan Bear, who I believe is a good candidate for Duncan Keith’s partner. The Oilers future on RHD should be Ethan Bear and Evan Bouchard. The two men will cost less than $3 million this coming season and probably less than $5 million next year.
If I’m Ron Francis, I’m on the phone today offering Radko Gudas, Ian Cole, Nick Jensen and any other available RHD in the expansion draft for Ethan Bear. If I’m Ken Holland, I don’t pick up the phone.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, we hit the ground running on a massive week, TSN1260. Kaitlyn McGrath from The Athletic joins us at 10:40 to discuss how far the Blue Jays bats can carry the pitching staff through August and September. Jason Gregor from TSN1260 will join us at 11 and we’ll break down what losing Adam Larsson to free agency might mean to the Oilers. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
Doug Weight?
Than any non-Oiler had points. Weight did out-assist his teammates points I’m sure.
Oh, sorry, I mis-read.
Gretzky did it 4 times where his assists were more than the points on any non-Oilers. Three times he had more assists than any player, including any Oilers, had points. The 4th time, Gretzky’s assists were equal to Kurri’s points. However, if Gretzky scored no goals, Kurri wins the Ross since goals are the tie-breaker. His one season of 163 assists is higher than any single season point total achieved by any player except himself many times, and Lemieux twice. Connor is in rare company.
Has anyone seen any info regarding development camp or a rookie tournament this year? I noticed that 5 central-ish teams, including TML have a tournament scheduled in Traverse City, Michigan in September and a prospects showcase tournament in Tampa (unsure of teams).
Training camps start on 22 September.
The Penticton tournament was cancelled.
Parking this here (THANKS Cap Friendly!)
McCann / Gourde / Tanev
Johnsson / Domi / Compher
Lemieux / Tierney / Lind
Comeau / Sissons / Gauthier
Bellows / Gambrell
Benson
Giordano / DeMelo
Dunn / Jensen
Zadorov / Braun
Fleury / Borgen
Kulak
Cholowski
Bean
Zboril
Driedger
Kahkonen
Korenar
Available Cap should be in the range of $15m or more. Have not walked my way through all the RFA contracts and probably could have spent more time tweaking the picks. Have a LOT of flex re: contracts as very few are longer than 1 year. Those contracts that are longer than 1 year are generally there to lead the team (Gourde, Tanev, etc.)
Enough space to pick up the odd UFA, would absolutely press hard for Landeskog.
Tried not to do any teams any favours. If teams want to dump Cap space then come talk to me. I want picks and/or high value prospects. Pretty much an open book.
Giordano should be worth a 1st from Calgary (if sent back with some Cap retention) or even more at the trade deadline (to whomever). Some other pieces will also be very attractive at the trade deadline (Domi, Braun, et al).
Should be a tough team to play given all the ‘grit’; the hope will be that Driedger comes through. I actually like that defense quite a bit so I would not offload pieces cheap.
Would be drafting Beniers or Powers (if Buffalo takes Beniers). With luck, one of Fleury, Bean, Zboril flourishes and provides a steady defensive foundation.
Focus will be on being a Grade A, class-act team – which is to say, if I want to bring Domi back in year two (after he is traded at the deadline), then he will view Seattle as a desirable place to play and thus, at the least, we would be in the mix in regards to receiving consideration in his decision.
Just checking in on the salty crew! What a great deal by Holland to get Keith! Looking forward to Thursday.
Lots of interesting discussions about Adam Larsson including with Leadfarmer.
Larsson is mostly played with lines three and four and you can sort of see why.
Look at the wowy data with players like Archibald or Khaira.
With Larsson, they give up 2 goals per hour and score 1.8.
Larsson’s always on for 1.8 gf/60 no matter what… also 2ga/60.
Without Larsson, they score 2.2 goals per hour, but the ga/60 blows up over 3.
Larsson is the glue that holds the bottom six together.
But don’t we want the bottom six to score more?
Sure, but that ain’t going to happen with the players and money available for our bottom six. After Nuge, none of our forwards were on the ice for more than 2 GF/60 though Khaira was close.
McDavid was on for 4 gf/60 last season… except with Larsson, it dropped to 2.
Despite Subban, Keith was actually on the ice for about a league median SV% last season, .9168. (Median .9167)
He’s had an above average on ice SV% the two seasons before that (92.79, and 92.48) then 91.28 four years ago.
Despite that, his GA/60 has been 3.1, 2.56, 2.51, and 2.98.
Those are some pretty lofty numbers for our bottom six to outscore. Presumably those numbers could improve with lesser comp.
Keith seems like a player you wouldn’t hide from 97 unlike Larsson.
I find the Keith Larsson pairing perplexing.
I am looking for help understanding that pairing idea.
It’s born out of the idea that Keith can’t defend. Also that he’s been brought in to play 2LD, and Larsson is the Oilers 2RD (that seemed more sure a week ago than today). Without Larsson though, I think many/most believe Keith will get slaughtered in the Dzone.
I agree that Keith doesn’t seem like a player you’d keep away from McDavid (or Draisaitl). In that sense, Keith-Bear could make more sense as a pairing. Maybe Nurse-Barrie/Keith-Bear does actually make sense for the Oilers today…
(McDavid and Draisaitl just had 82-48-106-154 and 82-45-78-123 seasons after all, FFS)
(and I’d already forgotten that McDavid had more assists than any non-Oiler had points this year, has anyone other than Gretzky ever done that?)
Anyway, in terms of Keith’s GA numbers and ability to play defense. First, Chicago has been really damn bad defensively as a team. Keith’s numbers this past season were bad even relative to team, but as I posted earlier to OP (somewhere buried in the thread), his numbers the previous 2 seasons were a bit better than team. Combining 18-19 and 19-20 he was even relative to team in xGA/60 and better than team in GA/60, GF% and xGF%.
I think Keith as a defensive liability (and liability generally) has been greatly overstated. So I don’t think he’ll need someone like Larsson to ‘hold his hand’ to manage 2LD. You’ve pointed out that he did well with Boqvist this year. Small sample size there, but Bear does look a lot closer to Boqvist than Larsson does. He can defend better too, pretty sure.
In terms of understanding Keith-Larsson as a thing I guess I can’t help much. I can say that Larsson hasn’t been near as much of a drag on McDavid’s offense in previous years (still a drag though). Last season for instance McDavid-Larsson scored 3.17 GF/60 and McDavid without Larsson scored 3.58 GF/60. I guess some of that can be attributed be Larsson’s partner(s), but I agree that Tippett has correctly played Nurse with McDavid, and Larsson with whoever else.
Nurse-Barrie
Keith-Bear
I’m curious/optimistic about how that would go, at least.
Nice post btw.
Just so you know Keith’s EV GF % the previous year with Crawford was 55%
This is going to be fun to follow this week. My Cap friendly expansion draft:
LW / C / RW
Van Riemsdyk / Domi / Tarasenko
Connolly / Tierney / Johnson
Virtanen / Kerfoot / Compher
Khaira / Appleton / Gauthier
Derek Ryan
LD / RD
Hickey / Subban
Sekera / C Miller
Fleury / Gudas
Zboril / Jensen
Clague / Benning
Bean / Meloche
Cholowski
G
Price
DeSmith
Kahkonen
Projected Cap Hit $82.15M, so there’d have to be a small trade to bring it under.
It re-unites buddies Price and Subban, and who better to sell the game in Seattle than those two. Along with a decent top line of JVR/Domi/Taresnko and solid forwards throughout. I think it would be a good grind ’em down hockey team.
The D isn’t great, but it is okay, with some good youngsters. Kahkonen is a good young goalie who is waiver exempt. Price/Smith duo is pretty good.
There’s a chance they make the playoffs.
I think they draft Beniers at #2, who might even make the team out of camp as a 2-way center, especially since the expansion draft is a bit short on C.
The attempt before this one had goalies Connor Ingram, and Vanecek to trade for picks.
If the young D do well in training camp and pre-season, then you keep them on the club and trade one of the vets to someone for picks/prospects.
Probably won’t be among Seattle’s criteria, but I did favour some players who were born near Seattle or played junior near Seattle.
I don’t think they touch Subban and I think Gio is there in person on Wed and in a Kraken jersey with a C on it.
Probably right. Gio is a bit cheaper. Although, Subban didn’t have a terrible season on a terrible team. He scored at a 35 pt pace over 82. A new team and reunion with Price might re-ignite him. Giordano scored at a 38 pt pace over 82 on a slightly better team. Not a lot of daylight between them, but the cap hit could be a dealbreaker. Making their new goalie happy might be a consideration. They can also trade Subban at the deadline and retain half to get a decent return if things aren’t working out. Or they can re-sign him this season at a much cheaper rate.
Not sure if you looked at Subban’s advanced analytics from last year. Across the board terrible. Even at 50% retained, he has a negative value contract.
Thing is…the game doesn’t have to be sold in Seattle.
They have a waiting list of 63 thousand for season’s tickets.
So while I can see them acquiring Price due to his connections to the region, I seriously doubt they would have any interest in Subban.
They will find much better ways to spend that $9 million.
Hell, that would get you Dougie Hamilton.
I realize they have no trouble selling season tickets, but that doesn’t mean they don’t want some hype and some recognizable faces to market with. And you don’t get much better than Subban at that. They have merch to sell and a TV audience to build. They want fans from everywhere, not just fans in the arena.
Seattle has a very long history of supporting it sports team from the Seahawks, Sounders, SuperSonics, U of W etc.
While I don’t disagree they would like to have a marquee player to help with marketing, I doubt they would tap a $9 million Subban to do that.
The SuperSonics averaged 13,000 fans a game in a 17,000 seat stadium in their last season before bolting to Oklahoma due to the stadium dispute. They had rookie Kevin Durant and still didn’t attract a big crowd.
HH only sees negative in things pertaining to Edmonton.
You don’t know what Seattle is thinking.
Would you want subban for the oil, certainly not at his current contract. It would be the same for Seattle, folks are just excited to have a team and they would prefer winning over a few big names. Been there done that with the Mariners for a long time.
But wait.. They’re going to rescue the Canucks from Braden Holtby?
Wouldn’t Francis have better ways to spend half of Hamilton’s salary?
Probably a lot of them from Vancouver that want to see what a real NHL team looks like!?
Zucker/Gourde/Tarasenko
Voracek/Kerfoot/Donskoi
Johnsson/Blackwell/Sissons
Comeau/Gambrell/Pitlick
Bellows/Khaira/Lind
Giordano/Stecher
Bean/DeMelo
H.Fleury/Kukan
Clifton/Borgen
Kulak/Zadorov
Clague
Driedger (Only UFA, since they are projecting a signing)
Vanecek
Kahkonen
Daccord
PROJECTED CAP HIT https://capfriendly-wlb8ng5.stackpathdns.com/assets/images/icons/general/q.svg : $64,090,476PROJECTED CAP SPACE https://capfriendly-wlb8ng5.stackpathdns.com/assets/images/icons/general/q.svg : $17,409,524
https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/486026
https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/485736
And they are about to sign Driedger in net. Sounds like 3 years, $10M.
Also, you have mistakenly picked Virtanen. He is on the NHL All-Pariah Team.
Driedger (no Gudas) will be signed to 3 yrs x $3.5 million. Zucker for DeSmith. Kole Lind for Virtanen. Svechnikov for Cholowski Zadorov over Connolly. Bastian over Subban, Otto Koivula over Hickey.
The flames should take the $6.75M coming off the books for Gio and give most of it to Hyman for the next 6-7 years.
https://twitter.com/domluszczyszyn/status/1417187712398938113?s=21
i like this post by Dom. UFA signed to 6 year contracts have 70% chance of not playing in the NHL their last year.
meaning you give long term UFA contracts to only elite players
Theres a huge drop off between 5 and 6 years. 57-31% are still playing at that time
so the rumored Goodrow contract looks to need a buyout at about year 4.
So really any Saad Hyman Larsson contracts need to be kept to 4 years max
I think this kind of analysis is where Dom’s model has a chance to shine.
Thing is, what’s the AAV that will entice Saad or Hall or Hyman (et al) to sign for 4 years with their late 20s UFA contract? Is that number palatable?
Except UFA signings are never set by what is reasonable – they are set by greed and/or desperation.
Often called “the market”.
Yup. Fear & greed are very reliable parameters in matters of commerce.
If the Oil strike out on the bigger LW’s (Saad, Hyman, Landeskog) would anyone be ok with similar money for Danault? then get Tatar to add to the line, let Archie play the RW spot. Solid third line. Shelters our 4th line.
I Guess how much do we earmark for 2LW, 3C, and 3/4LW (assuming Benson and Neal are gone) and 2RD. and 2 goalies
Koskinen gone with 50% retained.
Neal traded with 1st or bought out (for this exercise bought out)
gives us approx. $18 million
Klef on LTIR = $22 mill
Tatar = $2.5 mill
Larsson or equivalent = $4 mill
Goalies = $6 mill
Danault = $5 mill
Schwartz = $4 mill
Bury Turris leaves us $1.0 mill to play with. Move Kassian and free up even more money and sign Chiasson at $1 million and save $2 mill on cap, allowing you to upgrade Russell at 3LD if you wanted.
Schwartz-McDavid-Puljujarvi
Nuge-Draisatl-Yamamoto
Tatar-Danault-Archibald
Khaira/Benson-McLeod-Chiasson
Shore-Marody
Nurse-Bear
Keith-Larsson
Upgrade-Bouchard
Russell
Ullmark
Smith
Didn’t Danault balk at playing 3C in MTL and then turn down their fairly rich offer (considering his production vs Nuge), only to soil the sheets in the regular season before playing well in the playoffs?
Why would he sign here for a 3C contract that’s basically the same (5x$6M) as what he turned down in MTL? Is that even fair value for a 3C when guys like Granlund or Haula are available for less term and dollars to keep a seat warm until, say, McLeod or Holloway steps up?
I went through the mock draft exercise. I would attempt to extract 1st round draft picks from St. Louis, Philly to take Tarasenko and one of Voracek/vanRiemsdyk, and a 2nd to take Giordano from Calgary, because one could pick a cheaper option from any of those teams.
I would take Bellows from the Islanders, or make Lou surrender a 1st to take Bailey or Eberle.
I took Sissons from Nashville, but I wonder what Poile would pay the Kraken to take Duchene or Johansen.
I take Gourde.
I think the risk of Benson being picked is fairly high having gone through the exercise.
I think the probability of a playoff team out of the gate is 50/50.
I’d ask for Fabbro plus Johansen. No freaking way I would touch Duchene. Selfish player.
Post your team. Would like to see what you settled on.
https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/485736
It was a relatively quick once through. I just wanted to get a feel for what was out there. Consider it a quick rough “draft”, and not a polished effort. I chose Khaira, but with the roster selected it really should have been Benson, as the roster doesn’t need Khaira.
Where I chose big contracts, I would expect draft pick compensation as I suggested above. Giordano, I might take anyway. But Philly and St. Louis would have to pay for Voracek and Tarasenko or I would go cheaper.
Larson strikes me as a very loyal team first player. No ego to feed. If he is honestly looking around it’s because the Oilers did something to piss him off.
I think he signs here.
if not the target should be Josh Manson.
I don’t see any evidence that the team has done anything to irk Larsson – almost the contrary.
Smoke and mirrors.
I must say, the forum has been working wonderfully today, 100% – well done all involved!
Almost everybody worked wonderfully today. Buit the residrnt troll was just mailing it in. As usual.
If Holland can offload Kassian Neal Khaira Koskinen this offseason how big of a statue does he get?
What’s wrong with Khaira?!
Hope we aim higher
If Holland can do all those other things then we definitely can.
Not sure why Khaira is included in there.
If Neal and Mikko are via salary retained and no contract back or buyout then I give points – no points for buyouts.
mcleod Khaira are both fighting for same spot 4 line c
This is true but I don’t understand why moving on from Khaira is an indicator of success – I think the indicator of success is getting Khaira signed to a lower cap hit than his $1.3 (which, from accounts, is something Holland is interested in doing).
Those two can compete for a 4C job and the one that doesn’t win it can be re-assigned with zero cap implication (if Khaira signs for a tiny bit less).
Many are enthralled with McLeod – that speed with that size and some skill (and 2-way acumen) will do that. At the same time, as of now, McLeod should not be assured a roster spot – in fact, the main attribute he is missing is something Khaira has in spades – willingness to engage and battle and, until McLeod is able to do that, Khaira may be more effective (not saying he is or would be but just citing that McLeod has a lot of developing to do still).
My ideal scenario is McLeod/Khaira as 4C/5C (or 4/5LW).
Having neither on the 3rd line opening night would be an indicator of success for sure though.
I think you’ve described why McLeod is a potential 3C and JJ is a 4C.
But we have yet to see much of a worthwhile sample size for the Highlander to make any firm conclusions at the NHL level. Next year may see him pop, or may see him meander. Too much risk to anoint him as 3C in ink at this time. I’d rather see him have to pass the likes of a Haula or Granlund type (and certainly JJ as 4C) to make that call.
Yes, I agree that McLeod has the potential to be a 3C and Khaira nothing above 4C but, at this point, McLeod isn’t a 3C and, for me, isn’t quite yet proven to be a 4C.
There is an important part of his game that is missing – that seemingly unwillingness to engage physically and battle – he shys away from it completely and a bottom 6 center in the NHL just can’t do that (for the most past). Its got to be mental and I sure hope he is able to get past it as he grows in a man.
Its a small sample but I’ve watched 85% of his AHL games and all his NHL gams – this is not something new (and was as issue back in junior as well).
I agree, and McLeod has also still not scored much at the NHL level. Khaira has some proven ability to produce in the NHL (12pts in 44 GP this season). He was a solid producer this year. McLeod did well in Bakersfield, but we still don’t know if he can bring even a small portion of that to the next level. He’s -3, 1 assist in 14 games so far. I don’t even mind Khaira’s cap hit that much. Sure I’d like it lower, but I don’t think he was necessarily getting overpaid at a $1.2M cap hit.
A few nuggets from John Shannon…FWIW.
He’s convinced Montreal has a side deal in place with Seattle not to take Carey Price.
He quoted a Tweet from Angela Price to Montreal fans telling them not to worry.
Also thinks Seattle will take Braden Holtby from Vancouver.
Says he won’t be surprised if Larssen stays in Edmonton.
I believe the side deal you refer to is his contract
I believe it isn’t.
The first 2 years of the contract are bad but may be palatable if you don’t think much about it
the last 3 years including his 37 and 38 yo season are atrocious
That’s money ?
As good as Price has been in the playoffs, Montreal (not Seattle) is paying $10.5M x 5 for a soon to be 34 year old who’s sandwiched right between Mike Smith and Mikko Koskinen in regular season SV% over the past 4 seasons.
Smith .910
Price .909
Koskinen .908
There is no way Francis takes that contract. If he does, well that’s the best news I’ve heard all damn day.
John Shannon doesn’t know what Carey Price or Montreal is thinking.
I strongly suspect that Larsson will be back.
1 – The acquisition of Keith furthers the need for Larsson and necessitates his return. Whether you like the Keith deal or not, bottom line is he needs to play with a shut down D.
2 – I imagine that Larsson wants to win, and that eliminates a lot of teams from contention.
3 – Spector generally doesn’t stick his neck out with specific numbers on a contract. I can’t recall a scenario in which that has happened.
4 – There are probably multiple sources leaking conflicting information to different parties. My thinking is that this is all a smoke screen.
I dearly hope this is true. Wonderllama will llikely be llivid if Llarsson lleaves.
I’d be hhappy with Hhamilton, though.
Keith/Bear
Keith/Bouchard
Both pairings will have positive puck effects, be wise for the coach to deploy a consistent good partner with Keith. Doesn’t need to be shut down, just good, and consistent.
Perhaps you are right. Earlier this off-season I was fine walking away from Larsson if the price was too dear. I am a bit nervous about Bear/Bouchard with Keith because I’m not convinced Keith is legit top 4 any more. Before I get my head blown off, hey maybe he is. We’ll see.
Larsson definitely is.
From a complementary skill set point of view, Keith – Larsson makes a lot of sense. Keith has also traditionally excelled with an elite defender.
We’ll see!
What basis do you have for 1 other than your intuition?
Intuitively, it would make sense that a smaller puck mover like Keith would benefit from a puck optional partner, but the results don’t necessarily fit that.
Last season, he played mostly with
Boqvist (45% GF), Connor Murphy (36%), and Ian Mitchell (47% GF).
His worst GF% results were with Connor Murphy.
Connor Muphy was 52% away from Keith, so he did not appear to be the drag on the pairing.
The season prior, Keith was 55.8% GF with Boqvist and 58% with Erik Gustaffson.
The problem with the Larsson minutes is that Larsson suppresses offense for both teams which is why Tippett doesn’t plan Larsson much with 97.
The Larsson minutes are the 3/4 line minutes (who he plays most with).
Keith doesn’t appear to be elite at defending. His main attribute is potentially contributing to offense. Our 3/4 lines don’t have anyone who can score.
I don’t understand why he would be a good fit with Larsson to play these 3/4 line minutes.
If Murphy was away from Keith did his QoC drop?
Purely intuition.
Second pairing minutes are still “tough” minutes and someone has to defend well. I don’t think that person is Keith, I think it would/should be Larsson.
I agree that Larsson is a bit of a hole offensively, but hopefully Keith helps with that.
The problem with your analysis is Keith had 49.5% GF with one rookie goalie and 37% GF with another goalie who is an Ahl caliber goalie
So you pretty much can throw away that goals for analysis unless you sort out the real variable which was shit goalering
Then go back two years. Subban played one game with Chicago the season prior.
That year, Keith had great results with Boqvist and Gustafson as I had mentioned, Neither of those two are ‘hair on the ass’ defensemen.
Either Tippett or 97 doesn’t like 97 playing with Larsson.
If you play Keith with Larsson, you’ll drag Larsson into the McDavid minutes which I don’t believe is optimal.
Also the real goal of this year should be getting some kind of offense from the bottom 6 (while not increasing GA of course)
If I’m the Kraken, I take Driedger and Price.
Then give Price lots of rest, or “Kucherov” him.
Price doesn’t have $52.5 M worth of hockey left in him.
Or even the $44 M in actual cash for that matter.
You’re right. I wouldn’t actually do it.
But, as Francis builds out his roster, if it starts looking like they could actually contend,
Price is one of the best goalies of his generation, proved he still has it in the playoffs.
And is a marketing goldmine for Seattle.
Vegas has done very well with Fleury who is 3 years older than Price
Rumored Oilers out over the last 24 hours:
Khaira – expansion draft fodder
Larsson – testing the market
Kassian – post-expansion draft trade
Now, I’m not one overly concerned about having a “heavy team” or guys to ensure liberties aren’t taken or “playoff hockey” but that is pretty much all the “truculence” give or take a Nurse and a slight Archie.
Tough to play against is a thing – Larsson is tough to play against (moreso than the two forwards but they do bang).
Montreal lost. 🙂
IMO, ‘tough to play against’ are players that forecheck aggressively and take away time/space to make plays. A player who anticipates the play and is there to put a stick in the way is much more difficult to play against than a guy who is running around looking to throw a big hit (or in Kassian’s case a missed hit that catches the boards or glass)
Don’t disagree and I indicated that Larsson was more in the “tough to play against” category than the forwards….
This is why I am suspect of most of the Oilers bottom 6 except Archie. Invisible for most of every game. Every NHL player makes a play, even a great one, now and again. It’s consistency in what you are supposed to bring that matters.
Kassian doesn’t, but by far has the highest ceiling of anyone outside of the top 4-5 forwards. And can play effectively enough anywhere, when he wants to.
I may be in the minority but I think Khaira may be a tougher guy to replace than some think. Bigger guy who skates well, makes plays, can score a little, hits, fights, and elite on the PK. Sounds like an ideal bottom six guy to me.
I guess they’ll try to bring him back on a cheaper deal, but a bit of a head scratcher that they value Archi at 1.5 and Khaira at less than 1.
And re: Kassian. I’ll believe it when I see it.
The upside to Larsson potentially going to the market is making a real pitch for Hamilton.
Yup, I agree on Khaira and it does sound like they are hoping to bring him back for less than $1.3M – the Kraken could claim him and not qualify him – the Knights did that with a bunch of players.
Archibald was a UFA signing who was coming off a season where he’d scored about as many 5×5 goals as JJ had in his career. Easy to see why he got paid more.
He also scores a lot of empty net goals. Archi is also a good PK option and I can see the rationale for keeping him.
I’m not sure what percentage of his goals in ARI were from EN goals but yes, that’s something I’ve noticed too.
Still, JJ is an admirable player who leaves a lot on the table compared to Archie from a simple stats perspective. And the eye test — if we call their PK work a wash for the sake of argument, Archibald is much more engaged in the play with or without the puck on a consistent basis.
Anyone read or have any time for DobberProspects / Dobber Hockey ?
Yeah it’s alright
Here’s his view of Seattle’s pick from Edmonton
Edmonton
Key Names – James Neal, Tyler Benson, Oscar Klefbom
My Pick – Oscar Klefbom
Seattle’s Pick – James Neal. Edmonton gives Seattle Tyler Benson plus a third-round pick to take Neal over Klefbom.
Isn’t Seattle taking Klefbom the best case scenario? His LTIR cap hit is quite annoying. Unless Kenny has astonishingly glowing medical reports, having Seattle gamble on Klefbom would be a nice amount of cap space freed up.
If Klefbom is not playing for the next two seasons, then, yes, it would be fantastic to get rid of the cap hit – LTIR reserves is a terrible way to manage the cap and inhibits in-season acquisitions and even day to day roster management.
Of course, if Klef was ready to play for 2022/23 (or even later this coming season/playoffs), its no longer best case scenario.
no way!!
getting rid of neal is best case scenario
Klef LTIR and who knows maybe he plays in 9 months
Id rather they just take klefbom. Free up the LTIR and not have the cloud over head.
Contract is not insured
I couldn’t imagine him being taken
You keep saying that and never, ever prove it. Put up or…..
We would build a statue to Holland if that was the case
The Oilers don’t have a 3rd round pick until 2023.
One of the most memorable Holland trades in recent history was Lucic for Neal.
How surprising would it be if Holland can actually execute the second half of that trade by moving James Neal to the Kraken.
More likely the Flames can retain half and move Lucic.
That is highly unlikely (Neal or Looch).
You don’t know what the Flames are thinking.
Someone is going to have to pry Lucic from Sutters cold dead hands before Calgary moves Milan out.
Have things changed that drastically in cowtown after King’s passing that they’re no longer notoriously stingy with money? And in a COVID/flat-cap environment, to boot?
Really?
Depending on price, it would be massive.
Is Lagesson done in Edmonton?
Dude is 25 yrs old. Is this not a make it or break year for him?
If you can kill penalties, you’ll always be welcome in Edmonton
Also if you play the cowbell. Without Larsson, Lagesson’s our only candidate for the Jason Smith role. I generally approve of winning with skill, but every D corp needs one (better two) guys who are good hockey players and can also clear the front of the net, let the goalie see the shot, and throw big hits to keep forwards honest.
You have to be able to play first, always.
However Tampa the best team over the last few years has consistently brought in more size and has (had) a huge D corp.
The Oilers last season were overall one of the smaller teams in the league and to me seemed to have difficulty handling the Jests trying to be physical with them.
You see more smaller forwards than D. Lighter and shorter, I think because they can still be effective, more than the same for a defenseman.
Again there are no cut and dried rules, Ryan Ellis is fantastic. He is also a very rare type of player. Or Makar. But they are outliers, most D are better being taller and over 200. Taller, heavier, and with more reach than the forwards essentially.
Skating is always the best weapon physically, the other things make it easier for them to box out and break up plays.
Which is why forwards like Ovechkin, Backstrom, Crosby (the tank), Tarasenko (bigger tank), even Josh Anderson and of course Leon are so hard to defend. Hopefully JP gets his inner Paul Bunyan going strong too.
Jason Smith was a full time NHL’er at age 22
Would be nice if we could recover a pick for Kassian
If he’s traded, I believe we will get a lot more for him than people here expect.
Maybe the Oilers finally win a trade!
I do too
Buchnevich
Kassian and?
Kassian is cost-controlled. Buchnevich would be headed ot arbiration and a big number. I don’t think the Oilers would have to add.
Chiarelli bobble head.
thanks for jinxing it lol 😉
Absolutely. And a third sounds about right. I mean Im cool if they keep him but he has always had some value.
To expose him over Benson off all players would have been some serious mismanagement. Kassian has value Benson has none.
No 3rd for this draft or next draft (tied up via “conditions”).
Rangers 3rd.
David Savard had the follwoing GF/GA at evens this past season:
CBJ – 15/41
TB – 2/10
Adam Larsson >>>>>>>> David Savard
People think that Larsson is going to regress in his early 30s – maybe this has already happened to David Savard?
Yuck. That is really bad. We’re probably better off acquiring a big bodied LHD. Plenty of teams don’t have three RHD.
Perhaps a placeholder RD until Samorukov is ready. Sammy played RD for Moscow this past season.
Vatanen on a one-year deal? Samorukov and Berglund can fight for first call up in the event of injury.
Whoa, I would caution greatly re: equating a defender playing his off-side in any non-NHL league (in particular overseas) with the ability to do so as efficiently in the NHL.
Massive difference in the amount of time a defender has to get the puck and move the puck – bigger players, faster players, smaller ice – there is substantially less time.
Maybe Sammy provides to be one of the rare that can play the off-side with very little drop off but I’m not going to slot the guy in to the right side in the NHL quite so soon.
PDO.
PDF or the cliff everyone is scared Larsson will fall off at the exact same age Savard was this past season, no?
He is an older crappier version of Larsson
this is a guy you sign for one year or maybe two
David Savard has been making $4.25m for the past 5 years.
But you didn’t/don’t want to pay Larsson $4m+?
When did I ever say that?
I’ve been one of Larsson’s biggest supporters over the years, including recently, cited him as a must re-sign back when the Oilers were still playing hockey.
I agree you’ve been consistent in your support of Larsson.
I thought you had some max terms on him like $4m and 4 yrs
I did have some thoughts on terms – was hoping for 3 years but willing to give the 4th if it got the AAV under $4M – I’m still “hopeful” on that (see Spector’s contract terms) but am willing to me a little bit on them given the market seems to be a bit more “spendy” than once thought (rumored).
Funny thing… The last 3 years of that Savard contract have been worth about a dollar. 1 buck.
Over 4 million for Larsson and you’re gonna have a bad time.
Great Speckled Bird
“get to some lean times momma
watch a fat friend go….if the good lord’s willing
live a long long time to get old”
Or Linda,
“Cause I’ve done everything I know to try and change your mind
And I think I’m gonna miss you for a long long time”
With the goalers 12 and 15 on the consensus Bobfather list don’t see them being around at the Oil spot. I think the limited exposures this year made for more volatility with the skaters and both goalers look safer than usual in the storm.
I think the Larsson drama is just that – got to make it look good as the NHL has shown zero hesitation in nailing the Oilers to the cross at any opportunity.
If the goalies and Svechkov are gone – trade down for a couple of 2nd round dice rolls or a forward. Svechkov would probably arrive early and solve 3C for many years.
I know many of you have been waiting for an update on Vasili Podkolzin.
It seems the young man has grown a bit and is now listed at 6’4” 205.
Oh my…should be quite a load.
https://theprovince.com/sports/hockey/nhl/vancouver-canucks/canucks-top-10-prospects-vasily-podkolzin-reaches-the-top
They’re gonna need a big guy to dig those pucks burried deep in their net
What is the Russian word for Banzai!!!
I’m glad you’re excited about your prospect, but we really don’t need to hear about the size of the load.
Oh my god is this ever inappropriate. I immediately felt slightly ashamed after laughing for five minutes.
You weren’t in the room when they measured his height and weight.
So now his skating is going to be even more awkward … Oh my!
As Michael Bluth once said to Tobias Funke, “You know what you do? You go buy yourself a tape recorder and record yourself for a whole day. You might be surprised at some of your phrasing.”
Huh. NHL.com Staff Writers are picking Devin Shore to be Seattle’s pick from the Oilers.
Maybe they’re secretly Oilers fans trying to sway Seattle from picking Benson or Khaira. Picking Devin Shore would be the equivalent of Vegas choosing Griffin Rein…
Err.. I mean PLEASE DONT CHOOSE DEVIN SHORE SEATTLE! WE LOVE THAT GUY!!!
Greg Wyshynski (@wyshynski) Tweeted:
Steve Mayer of the NHL tells me that the @SeattleKraken expansion draft broadcast will involve Pike Place Market. And you know what that means:
“We’re going to throw a fish and reveal a pick,” he said.
https://twitter.com/wyshynski/status/1417188780130328580?s=20
the first comment is great
better than having a barista put the names on a Starbucks cup
https://twitter.com/ddayan15/status/1417192109367611393
Hear they’re working on a cameo appearance from Liam Neeson.
https://youtu.be/38AYeNGjqg0
Starbucks cup for Oilers: “Jar-Jar Cara”
David Pagnotta (@TheFourthPeriod) Tweeted:
Some teams interested in Vladimir Tarasenko have reached out to Seattle about selecting him in the Expansion Draft and flipping him to their club. If the right offer presents itself, Kraken may be willing to retain a portion of his contract.
https://twitter.com/TheFourthPeriod/status/1417160803669581835?s=20
Well he’s got no value without retention
I expect he will prove you wrong.
Athletic polled GMs about Tarasenko
they knew he was available and weren’t interested
but hey you know better
You must missed the TEAMS that have reached out to Seattle in the original tweet.
You don’t know what the teams are actually thinking.
Sure If they retain cap hit hes worth something
Seravelli said there were many teams interested in acquiring Tarasenko for his full cap hit and he’s shocked a deal wasn’t done and he’s been exposed. I think it is likely that there are “deals in place” regarding Seattle taking and flipping Tarasenko.
Think Philly.
I still think Larsson will be an Oiler and Barrie will sail on but, if it does go the other way, we’ll likely see:
Nurse/Barrie
Keith/Bear
XXX/Bouchard
I would like to see Bear with Nurse and Larsson with Keith, however, going by last year, the Nurse/Barrie with the McDavid line did “work”. I know there are numbers about Barrie dragging down the actual offence, etc. but, at the end of the day, that pairing got us to 2nd in the division playing lots of minutes. Its a pairing that can get us to the playoffs and, of course, there is a trade deadline……
Keith/Bear – well, that could be a nice 2nd pairing. Larsson is more “stable” than Bear but Bear brings attributes that Larsson does not including better puck moving etc.
Russell or a potential signing of Koekkoek or Kulikov (or similar external signing) for 3LD – not terrible, not great.
I would LOVE to see some Sammy there if he has a good camp but Sammy/Bouch, well, I don’t see Tip/Playfair going that route.
PK is an issue with the above deployment – another reason why a Russell/Koekkoe/Kulikiov is probably required over a Sammy at 3LD.
I was watching Samorukov’s KHL highlights this morning, this young man will be in the NHL sooner rather than later.
Yup. Before Christmas at the latest. Possibly out of camp. His season ending injury being the only unknown imo.
I was thinking this as well. Then I saw he’s still listed at 6’3″ 188lbs on the Oiler’s site.
I wouldn’t be surprised (barring injuries) that they let him fill out a bit in the A, he just turned 22. Especially given his style. That’s a pretty slender young fella still.
Just have him step on Podkolzins scale and he will be 7’1 295 lbs
He’s listed at 197 on hockeydb and I think that was his listed weight coming out of junior. He’s not a Poti or Marincin out there so I doubt he’s anywhere near 187.
That’s good, I would just be worried he’d get hurt playing a rough style against the strongest guys he’s ever played against.
He needs to eat what Podko eats.
How much of Barrie’s numbers are affected by joining a new team / transitioning?
What is the probability that his numbers improve this year if he’s back?
Barrie’s underlying numbers were the main concern.
On the year he was 49.2% shots, 52.4% goals, 48.5% xGoals (and better after the first 10 games or so I think).
(and 58.5, 66.7, 67.7 in the 1st round)
In minutes with Nurse they had 50.3% shots, 58.3% goals, 48.4% xGoals.
Tippett used Lagesson there as a (older) rookie. A assume that’s a part of Samorukov’s game too, so if the rest is ready I don’t think PK will hold him out of the lineup.
I would like to see Dave Manson get a month or two with him. Get him up to speed on systems and such.
Well he was with Manson in Bakersfield in 19-20, so I guess he should have some idea already. But for sure, some time to get familiar again (also coming off his injury) would be best.
An issue with bringing Barrie back next season is that, for me, it means he has to play with Nurse, its like a must at evens. He got caved away from Nurse last season (also away from McDavid, I get it) but I’m not so sure he can play with Keith or Russell/Koekkoek/Kulikov/Samorukov/Lagesson/other 3LD acquisition.
No, I don’t think so.
In the 3 years before he joined the Oilers he played >200 minutes with 8 different defensemen on 2 teams (in order): Zadarov, Cole, Nemeth, Girard, Muzzin, Rielly, Dermott, Johnson.
Not many of those guys are world beaters, but Barrie was +11 at 5v5 those 3 seasons. I guess most of those guys were better than Russell/Koekkoek though (and keep in mind also that his total time with Russell/Koekkoek totals just 167 minutes).
That’s fair but I look at the LD depth chart and I don’t see him playing with Keith or a raw rookie like Sammy and it didn’t work here last year with “the dregs” – of course, sample size on that.
On top of the small sample size with Russell and Koekkoek those games came at the beginning of the season. Barrie seems like a guy who needs to be comfortable with the system, his teammates, his partner to play ‘his game’.
And Samorukov, if he’s playing at an NHL level his game seems like a decent compliment to Barrie’s. You never know. Barrie has had success with lots of different partners before Nurse, and few/none of them were at Nurse’ level.
In terms of Keith, I don’t think we have a clue what he is at this point. He had bad GA and GF% rates/numbers last season. Those have been used to conclude he’s can’t defend anymore, and may not be able to handle 2nd pair at all.
Yet scouts and people who’ve watched him (via Leavins and others) still think he can play. His coach still used him more than Murphy or any other Chicago defenseman last year. And his relative GA/60 and xGA/60 were right around team average the two seasons before last. Combining 18-19 and 19-20, he was exactly average in relative xGA/60, and better than team in GA/60, GF%, xGF%.
I dunno, I don’t have a hard time seeing Barrie playing with Keith at all actually (though I still expect it will be mainly Nurse, at least for this coming year).
Saturday: Spec with fairly detailed contract details for Larsson – saying its not done but very speculative on it getting done.
Sunday Night: Saravelli stating that its unlikely Larsson re-signs and becoming likely that Barrie is re-signed
Monday morning – Rishaug stating that he knows “for a fact” that Larsson hasn’t made up his mind and is still thinking about his options and how we wants to proceed.
Conclusion: Who the eff knows!
Larsson & maybe Holland. Everybody else is selling their product.
I guess we should let him decide, not like we have a choice. Who knows, maybe Larsson has women trouble in the mix. I can just hear his mother “Adam you’re getting older now, and you’re not married… I know this nice Swedish girl, very… why don’t you…”
He has a Swedish girlfriend already and she is extremely attractive.
This was from last year, so not up to date. I am not sure if this was on my plane or Daryl’s.
https://twitter.com/ArchivistSports/status/1260191840864616450
ask HH, he knows everything ;)…
@frank_seravalli
Hearing #NY
have made significant progress with newly acquired forward Barclay Goodrow.
Not finalized. Expectation is Goodrow will be a Blueshirt once the signing moratorium is lifted with a 6-year deal in $3.6m AAV range. @DFOHockey
__________________________________________
Wow. Goodrow was a nice bottom 6 option here, but $21M is silly.
The giant NYR crest was very unintentional!
Closet fan!
Seattle could be very good team even without any trades.
Ritchie- Gourde- Eberle
McCann- Danault- Domi
Khaira- Sissons- Compher
Caamano- Tierney- Pitlick
Gadjovich- Gambrell- Bastian
Twarynski- Geekie- Gauthier
Giordano- DeMelo
Soucy- Dunn
Pettersson- Stecher
Clague- Borgen
Mahura
Driedger
Vanecek
Subban
I’d also seriously entertain taking Price, but Danault is just too tempting.
You think that roster would be a very good team?
That roster is ooooogly
Not Vancouver Canucks bad but still bad
Ah, I intended to type just “good team”. Exclude the “very” and yes, I do think so. A strong group of two-way Cs, solid scoring talent mixed in, and a deep D corps. Excluding the goalies, I’d say that looks notably better than Vegas’ initial roster (w/o trades).
Interesting. There’s a few good players for sure but a lot of guys playing too high up in the lineup. We’ve seen how that movie ends (2010-2014 Oilers). The defense is passable but Gio’s wheels are about to fall off.
Fair points, but I think that’s 3 lines with two players each proven in such a role (Gourde, Eberle, Danault, and Domi are all safe top-6 players; Sissons and Compher are both effective shutdown players) and then a 3rd member of each unit that brings a dimension the others are lacking. Ritchie has size and has shown to be a pretty effective defensive player (last I checked), McCann is a good 5-on-5 scorer and playdriver, and Khaira adds size to his line. I like the 4th line but can’t really say much about it is proven to work.
As for the D, I think Gio has at least one more quality top-4 season in him and behind him are at least 4 guys that I’d rank higher than Bear currently.
That’s without UFA signings pushing players down the lineup.
Or trades to add other quality players for cheaper than they would be currently (Neiderreitter, Johansen, Voracek/JVR, etc).
I’m pretty sure Nashville would retain on Johansen to move him.
I think that’d be my ideal scenario. Johansen at closer to 6mil would be a solid security blanket for guys like Gourde and whichever C the Kraken drafts this year. I’m not convinced that his ‘decline’ isn’t at least partially a mirage resulting from Nashville being, well, Nashville.
You don’t know what Nashville is thinking.
Other than Yzerman no one has been retaining so far
Francis explicitly stated that cap flexibility is his most important criteria. I don’t think he’s going to take on as many shitty contracts as some are suggesting.
Yes, to get out of that contract. They’ve had conversations with a couple of teams re: Johansen and Duchene.
I think that is far far far from a very good team.
Your opinion is noted, but I’ll have to disagree.
Not very far at all.
A couple of top 6 forwards in free agency and they will be the most balanced team in the Pacific Division save VGK.
I wonder if the absence of Klefbom, and his likelihood of retirement, has had any bearing on Larsson’s decision making?
I don’t think Klefbom is retiring prior to collecting his $8M over the next two years.
From accounts, Klef and Larsson are very tight and talk often – I’m sure the news that Klef likely won’t play at all this season (per Holland’s recent verbal) was no surprise to Larsson. I would think that Larsson has known this and knew it when he publically stated he wants to continue playing in Edmonton, etc.
Fine, we’ll make Berglund the 8D and keep him on the roster.
Of note, Jesse P. was actually born in Sweden……
other than the respected sports insiders that you really trust and consider their input on the up and up I wouldn’t put a lot of faith in the seravalli’s of the world who are scrambling to let their new bossman know they are legit and relevant…too many stories to float during silly season that boost your profile…I will wait until bobby mac tells me where adam larsson is headed before giving in to these frivolous stories…I think I would trust my schnauzer more at this point!….jmho
Yup. I actually put more weight in Spector’s 3.9 story. That was pretty specific for speculation.
And just through sheet volume and the law of averages, Spector has to be right sometime, right?
That too. I think he is more reliable with gossip than with insight though so there is that. 😉
Seravelli is one of the best – he is already legit and relevant – he’s the McKenzie replacement of insiders (give or take Friedman).
The only way I support losing Kassian and signing Chiasson is if that salary if for a good 3C, preferably right shot.
Chiasson isn’t as good a player. He also doesn’t help with the game within the game. These playoffs show that intimidation is still a go to playoff strategy.
Tampa even does it, the ‘small’ smart analytics team. Anyone else see Maroon chicken flapping away and all the hitting?
The Oilers seem to still really like bland nice guy players. Sometimes even skilled.
Unfortunately they play NHL teams that embrace the agro.
If Kassian is traded, it allows for a legit upgrade in top 6 right wing and Yamamoto moved down to 3RW which is fantastic depth – championship level depth.
I would trade Kass for Riley Smith.
True, hopefully they can muster up enough push back when somebody inevitably tries the old ‘run the Oilers and they’ll quit’ schtick.
Hopefully but removing Kassian from the lineup over the last while doesn’t change what they have to muster up because Kassian hasn’t been involved in any such mustering.
Well, he did push back when he was protecting himself (see Tkachuk incident) – while costing the team the game.
To me it is far more about the other team looking from the bench across the ice, and deciding if there is anyone that they have to worry about.
This tactic has been used always. It’s an easy way to gain an edge. Tampa was pounded year after year and eventually gave in.
The Oilers also faced this. In the reg season they were so unable to respond.
Yes there is Nurse and maybe Khaira. But Nurse should at this point be a last resort (there is a reason top players stop fighting much) and Khaira gest his bell rung more than he provides any threat other ruffians would take seriously.
I think the NHL’s uneven handling of certain players has lead to Kassian being not sure what to do. He has been penalized more harshly than far more egregious players in the last 3-4 seasons say.
The Gagner thing was much longer ago, he has not done anything close since (many others have done dangerous things, like Gio).
He dealt with TkaPunk, got his anti Oiler league punishment (no problem with years of Ovi’s obvious head hunting, now Wilson, Gio taking knees out no problem, etc etc) but that is on the NHL IMO.
It is what it is. Still, I believe every NHL player has a healthy respect for Kassian when they are on the ice with him.
The reason being the same as Messier. You never know. Now or later. He may never do much again, or he may bring it harder than you want. Take a gamble.
While I love the hardnosed play of Larsson, I’m not seeing the value that many here seem to see. All his “Rel” metrics show decline for the past two or three years:
http://naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20182019&thruseason=20202021&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=oi&rate=r&v=p&playerid=8476457
Most of the decline seems to be on the offensive side, which is scary because he wasn’t strong in that area in the first place. His QoC is in decline too:
17-18: 35.3% (1st)
18-19: 35.3% (1st)
19-20: 34.0 (3rd)
20-21: 32.8 (5th)
I don’t see how a $3.9M x 4 offer could be considered “insulting” to a 28-year-old defenseman who brings zero offense and is falling down the depth chart defensively.
Would I re-sign him to a fair deal? Yes. Do I think he’s irreplaceable? Not even close.
Yeah that’s an offer that you are worth a lot too us. Especially a 4 year offer. Really is a 3×3 mil player and that’s generous
but don’t get me wrong we absolutely need him for next two years
I don’t think so at all. Guys like Hamonic, Ceci and Savard could produce much the same results as Larsson next year, while Parayko may be available next summer.
Save some cap and term by replacing Larsson with Hamonic, invest it in the bottom-6 while marinating the likes of Holloway, Lavoie and Tullio.
Hamonic is fine, if he’s playing.
Parayko is awesome, but he’ll need a contract the Oilers don’t.
I am not convinced Ceci is a defensive type which they need.
Savard doesn’t look inspiring either, Tampa sheltered him going by Puck IQ. He seems to have been hammered in Columbus on a D minded team. I didn’t watch him closely in the final, but he was never a mobile type and he’s a really heavy player coming 31. It’s probably boots.
Hamonic would fit the bill, if they had a RD in the Bake that could be called up. They don’t, so if he gets hurt it’s probably Bear Bouch Cowboy right side. Eeeewwwwww.
There aren’t a lot of lower cap lower term free agent options at RD. Maybe a trade could work. Kenny will be scrambling if Larsson goes.
Savard got absolutely lit up in goals against this past season – not only just with Columbus (like a 23% goal share IIRC) but he went 2-10 in goal for Tampa (regular season).
He may already be part of the way down that 30s cliff that so many project with the 28 year old Larsson.
As I mentioned he’s linebacker sized, and was never an agile player. Also not a skill player. A combo you expect a very vertical cliff for.
Based on Holland’s predilections, this is definitely more like the roster I envisioned from the get go.
Makes sense on a lot of levels.
Either you believe in the young d corpse or you don’t.
Keith at 2 years and Barrie at 3 years leaves the door wide open for Bear, Bouchard, Samorukov, Broberg and others to lay claim to the future.
It an evolution, not a revolution. This roster makes it further than the rosters of the last 3 years
Kassian for a 3rd is a cap bonus.
Not sure if Tippett is the right guy to manage this crew.
If this team is going to emulate the Miami Dolphins teams of the early 70’s, with McDavid playing the role of Dan Marino, they’re going to have to find themselves a Don Shula.
Love Brandon Saad. Love Erik Haula. Well done LT.
Barrie, Bear, Bouchard
The Better Business Bureau.
or a Breeze-By Bonanza?
If I’m the opposing coach, I’m telling my forwards to drive left all game long.
yeah….and you think a right side of Bear, Larsson, Bouchard changes that???
To quote Rob Parker, no way no how.
The Oilers strongest right side defender….Mike Smith 🙂
Did you watch any games this season? Larsson got taken wide more than any other Oilers defender. He’s not able to defend the rush against faster forwards.
To be clear, my personal preference is still Larsson over Barrie
Killer Bees!
I have enjoyed the progress and stability that Tippett has brought to the team following the ugly last year of Todd and the Hitchcock experiment, but I would be lying if I said I do not eagerly anticipate Jay Woodcroft behind the bench.
OP and LT have watched a fair amount of Condors action over the past few seasons.
Would love to hear from OP his feeling about Woodcroft as a coach. His tendencies or attributes.
Would also make a great blog post /article from LT.
It may be more consequential than any single roster move.
I like Woody as a coach, he is extremely positive in public regarding his players, they seem to want to play for him and his coaching staff and they have team success.
I will note a few thing (as it relates to him developing the youngsters and style of play):
1) Yes, the kids did play and did get prominent roles but Woddy 100% relies on the veterans – the guys like Griffith and Cracknell and Joe G. and Stanton and Esposito, etc. These guys get prime PP time, even over the likes of guys like Lavoie, etc.
2) The team does seem to “dump and chase” ALOT more than most would prefer given the high importance placed on puck possession. Yes, the likes of McLeod and Marody were very good at clean zone entries but, among the others, it was quite a bit of dumping and chasing.
McLellan protege.
Yup – he also relied on vets and they get leash over younger players – and that’s in the development league. Don’t get me wrong, I like Jay W. as a coach but I don’t think he’s what many seem to think he is.
Yeah, the grass is always greener I guess. Though he did lead them to the championship this year 😛
Thanks for the report.
99% this will be Tippett’s last season if they don’t win a round or two.
So where is Kassian headed? And for what? If it is a draft pick as suggested who does Holland spend the money on?
Saad AND Hall.
Pittsburgh for Jared McCann… never mind…
Seattle for Jared McCann.
Hope it’s all smoke and mirrors concerning Larsson, be nice to get him under contract for $3.6-$3.9 x 3-4 years.
As for the Kassian potential move, Strome from NYR for Kassian? Would that work? Maybe a lower end prospect with ZK?
Would solve the 3C problem.
Have a better chance at landing Eberle than Strome
Is Panarin coming with Strome?
In a perfect, uncapped world that would be nice.
Strome was very good without Panarin.
https://lastwordonsports.com/hockey/2021/04/12/ryan-strome-underappreciated-part-new-york-rangers/
Without Panarin over the 2 seasons:
47% shots, 50% goals, 47% xgoals, 1.62P/60.
Not terrible.
Buchnevich? Would fill a top 6 wing.
Seems that I’ve heard Strome and Buchnevich’s name out there and hell if the Rangers want Kassian, it’d be better than a kick in the ass.
I’ve been trying to tell folks Kassian is a Ranger and Buchnevich is coming back. We will see.
I wonder if the Rangers would trade Barclay G. to the Oilers with half-retained in order to diminish the negative value of that Goodrow contract?
My goodness Drury!
No to Tyson Barrie.
He’s a fine player, but blocks the major skill set of Evan Bouchard. EB will be a key powerplay weapon, and neutralizing him in favour of Barrie is a waste of talent.
Should keep Bouchard’s 2nd contact reasonable, while he learns to play NHL defense (thinking long term). Agree Barrie isn’t ideal though.
Part of me supports this thought. However, I think it would require a change in D deployment strategies with Barrie, Keith, and Bouchard all potentially on different pairings.
Potentially, not necessarily.
That’s the last concern I have.
Bouchard has to take the PP minutes from Barrie which is fine.
Bouchard soaking up PP minutes with 29 and 97 isn’t going to end well when it’s time to extend his ELC.
Barrie could start the PP and sub out halfway for Bouchard. Would give our PP different looks with Bouchard being more of a shooting threat.
That’s a viable thought. It doesn’t have to be strictly one or the other. Something like the following could work to give them different looks:
Nuge-Puljujarvi-Draisaitl
Barrie-McDavid
Tatar-Yamamoto-Draisaitl
Bouchard-McDavid
True talent typically outruns it’s blocking.
Well that’s exactly my point. Bouchard will outplay Barrie and you’re left with a $4.5M ticket for a 3rd pairing matador who plays PP2.
I’d rather spend the money on Savard or Danault to replace Larsson’s defensive value.
I would be fine with signing Barrie, but he’s not a good fit here. We have one small RHD already and Barrie would be the second small guy. And although Bouchard is big, he doesn’t play a particularly physical game yet and likely won’t for a couple more years.
Hopefully Keith can dish the secret sauce for getting dirty.
#intangibles
I understand if Holland thinks Larsson won’t bring value at the cap hit he is requesting. I do wonder how Holland can think Keith will play better hockey over the next two years than Larsson will. Sure hope Holland knows what he’s doing. Question for the room – what’s the most recent trade or signing that was justified by “intangibles” that worked out for the Oilers?
Mike Smith
I would add Lucic. Although the trade had him going the other way.
Lucic’s on ice play was not good but imo the reason he needed to be traded was what was going on in the locker room. That trade was all about the intangibles of a room divided.
Smith, Lucic & and now Keith are Holland’s ‘intangible’ trades – and I am still pissed about the terms of the Keith trade.
Interesting. It feels like when people talk about Lucic’s character they’re usually praising him. FWIW I think Lucic was a superweapon in the playoffs in his prime partly because of his hockey skill and size, but also because of his character. Specifically, a willingness to colour outside the lines, a casual enjoyment of inflicting pain and the willingness to take every inch refs would give him. For me, the best hockey players win by being the best at hockey. For me, the players with character are able to play in the NHL while also following the rules and the spirit of hockey. JMO
Haha I am legit embarrassed to have forgotten him. In my defense, I think the justification at the time was less “good signing because intangibles” and more “best signing available after whiffing on Markstrom then getting exceptional value on remaining cap space.”
Stan Weir
My earliest memories are 83 🙁 I hear he once played 18 holes of golf using a rusty piece of rebar and a sundried tomato and shot a 54. From what I gather, he’s a cross between Chuck Norris and Ryan Smyth.
Perron.
Bob’s list is out.
https://www.tsn.ca/owen-power-pulls-away-from-crowded-nhl-draft-field-1.1669730?tsn-amp&__twitter_impression=true
Five Americans in the top 10. One Canadian. 2nd Canadian at 15 – both played for the Oil Kings last season.
Hmm,
Probably a lot of talented OHL kids that are being docked for having missed a key season of development.
There could be a strategy to trade down and grab a litter of OHL kids in the 2nd round.
Isn’t there 5 Canadians in his top ten? Owen Power, Mason McTavish, Dylan Guenther, Brandt Clarke, Kent Johnson? Or are you just talking about where they played last season because of the restrictions?
I’ll take Sillinger Coronado Cossa or wallstedt please
They will all be gone by the time the Oilers pick according to the list.
The draft never follows the list perfectly. One of those guys will likely be available if history is any indication.
You don’t know what the GMs and scouts are thinking.
I normally wouldn’t care about the number of Americans vs. Canadians, however, with the recent info about US born players rarely signing in Canada as free agents, it’s definitely notable.
Thank you to Gregor for digging in to that.
but always presents his so-called opinions as facts… never change HH
are you new to this lol ?
I’d say Nurse-Barrie/Keith-Bear is a better balanced top 4 than Nurse – Bear/Keith – Larsson.
Larsson would likely end up on the third pair pretty quickly if resigned. Bouchard is a better fit up with Keith than Larsson is.
I’m fine with it either way. But – this is the Oilers – so good chance they don’t sign either guy!
My guess is they will come to terms shortly after the expansion draft.
This appears to me to be a classic feint, intended to legitimize a handshake deal.
Larsson will sign until proven otherwise.
Exactly what it is?
I could absolutely see this being the case.
The ‘silly rumour’ season is meant for entertainment only. 😉
Interesting that Barrie’s name still keeps popping up.
Misdirection.
Probably. Pretty sure Barrie does want to come back though.
Wouldn’t it be fantastic if it turns out Holland actually has a plan and the press conference was him engaging in psychological warfare with other GMs? “Oh no, I’ve fallen and can’t reach my common sense. I sure hope nobody takes advantage of me while I’m momentarily confused.”
Or, in LT parlance, a “counter-trey”.
I’m really interested to see what Barrie’s contract would look like resigning with the Oilers. I get the impression Holland is very wary of giving term, aside from Nuge, which I can understand as making him a “one-club player”. I think a big factor in him zeroing in on Keith was that it was a 2 year deal rather than having to give Martinez or Oleksiak 5 years.
So does Barrie come back at 3 x $5M or something similar? I thought some GM would make a ludicrous summer overpay for Barrie, but it doesn’t seem like that’s going to be the case. I’m a fan of Barrie, but there’s not a lot of defence-first mentality on that blueline.
I know, right? Hard to see a contract that makes sense for both. Barrie put up great numbers last year, but I don’t think it added to his reputation as much as I expected it to. I’m sure his agent will be trying to get him a nice fat 8×8, but what if all he’s being offered is 3×6-5×5? Would he leave cap and/or term on the table to stay in Edmonton? How much can we still afford to spend on our D?
I would never have guessed Larsson would walk and Barrie would sign.
You aren’t wrong yet. Tomorrow’s ‘rumour of the day’ could flip the switch again.
Nurse – Barrie
Keith – Bear
Forbort – Bouchard
I like the idea of Forbort. He can log a ton of boring minutes ala Larsson.
He provides a little Keith insurance as well since Forbort is capable of playing a lot of minutes/PK’ing.
Keith Bear is good. My cursory look at Keith’s last season suggested he did better with a guy who can make outlet passes than a puck optional d.
Definitely no objection to this from a hockey standpoint (well, maybe too much of a block for Samorukov/Broberg). But FWIW Evolving Hockey has Forbort getting $4.0M x 4 vs Larsson getting $4.1M x 5. Not sure he’ll be paid as a 3rd pairing D, or that his $1M x1 deal from this season means anything.
What’s the error margin with their model? Fairly broad, no?
Could be, I’m not really sure.
I don’t think anyone should expect he’ll cost similar to last year though.
Left and Right Balance is a “thing” that many would like to see happen and I believe it is critical to successful team building. It is less relevant on the wings, but more relevant for D.
Kenny currently has 4 RWs that can play in the NHL and 1LW.
Meanwhile, the leftorium continues and there are precious few options at RD on the roster right now and in the market generally.
Bear & Bouchard are RD that are on the roster. Barrie & Larsson aren’t gone anywhere yet.
I agree that LW is looking fairly dismal but one signing of a top six guy and that looks better.
Two weeks from now we should see Holland’s version of balance.
But will we see LTs in the fall?
We wait. (though I will admit it seems unlikely).
I think it depends on what Holland decides to do with Koskinen & Neal.
Yeah. One thing I know for certain, we will not be seeing any balance photos with Smith/Koskinen as the tandem in goal.