Oilers at 22: Xavier Bourgault

by Lowetide

I had him No. 14. This is the kind of selection Edmonton badly needed, and continues the run of six skill forwards we saw one year ago. His goal-scoring ability (20-20-40 in 29 games) is clear and he is a volume shooter (3.7 shots per game). He posted 1.38 points-per-game and has an NHLE of 32.1 points-per-82 games.

Red Line Report: Smooth, fluid skater is very deceptive with the puck on his stick. Excellent speed and puckhandling ability. Soft hands for both givingand receiving passes. He’s a finisher from the circles in – accurate shot and doesn’t need much time or space. Can beat defenders off the rush with slick moves that he makes at top gear. Thinking man’s attacker.

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Ryan

I wish I could sent Lowetide a box of Tim Horton’s coffee today.

Faustkarz

a bit late, hoping it’s answered before the next article, thank you LT for continued insight, be it oilers or life experience; a real gem.

I am curious; past three years we have seen broberg, holloway, and now the bourg. Visually from a pretty big oilers fan but not truly locked in w the league or hockey as whole, the first two seem to have very turned into real prospects not just wasted picks; real 1st round talent; specially outside top 3 picks.

Lowetide is, and I’d say used to be more (to no fault of LT), a math & analytics (Id argue qualitiative analytics have overrun the community here). It’s certainly the best Oilers, to my knowledge best NHL; and almost the best community on the internet (even DSF I mean I dunno a douche and pompous but right once or twice every month or two lol)

anyhow, amateur scouting seems good yet Oilers don’t use analytics ( though like all good corporations they keep knowledge of academic advantage to themselves, is carolina of all teams really that special).

with amateur league statistical tracking being very lacking, being a spectrum league to league, is analytics different from amateur to pro. of course it is, rhetorical I suppose. But with the limited statistics, what does amateur analytics look like? what metrics (besides NHLE) can a team truly look for? what metrics are more important in amateur vs pro analytics?

Organizationally, if people believe carolina and colorado are these vaunted analytic heavyweights; what are they looking at in amateur statistics?

If there is something in amateur statistics, across all leagues, that leads to some strategic advantage I’d propose an NHL team should spend most of their data and statistic assets to focus on amateur assets.

Reason for doing so is the importance of building through the draft; it’s a cap less way and an asset free (besides a pick of course) of obtaining a player at a needed position that can play. 5th pick or 16th pick who cares if you can strongly guarantee a cost controlled player who can play.

secondly, pro analytics are easily accessible and well researched, even the most archaic and old-minded GM/pro scout can see say RORs analytics and state “yes he’s a good player’. I also don’t believe too much that a video game style element of analytics deciding coaching decisions is really all that “hockey”; coaching is largely psychological, intuition, and human nature based for statistics to affect real time decisions that people champion for.

End of rant; I think Tyler Wright has been optimizing the limited statistical information in amateur leagues to identify underwritten amateur players, without reaching mind you imo. I am curious in people’s opinions what exactly they could be doing; also very curious in people’s knowledge in amateur vs pro scouting & analytics specially regarding the differential in level/quantity of information between the two.

Last edited 2 months ago by Faustkarz
Ryan

The Avs took Oscar Olausson at 28. He was 29th on Lowetide’s list and 34rth on McKenzie’s.

Last edited 2 months ago by Ryan
Redbird62

Almost certainly not a lot of detailed public info on the non NHL leagues outside of basic stats. But there are companies that do analytics for these. Sportslogiq for is one firm that does work in this area and they are hired by a lot of NHL teams so it is possible in some cases they provide their NHL clients analytics that are used in developing their draft lists.

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual

I wonder if Bourg’s linemate Nadeau might be on the Oilers’ radar at 90. Has plenty of skill himself and plays a heavy game; haven’t seen much of him but he seems to possess some Maroon-like elements to his game.

Diablo

When Cossa went off the board, I was hoping they would shift to picking a high skill forward. Really like this pick. Really like that they got an extra 3rd rounder to move back and pick the player they had targeted all along.

Harpers Hair

Ken Holland (@FakeOilersGM) Tweeted:
I’ve asked Marc Bergevin to not trade Nick Suzuki to the Edmonton Oilers for Kyle Turris.

https://twitter.com/FakeOilersGM/status/1418799872610811913?s=20

Diablo

That’s the best you got?

CMcD4PM

Your copying and pasting has become scattershot. Feeling OK? You’ve got us worried. Is there somebody checking on you from time to time?

Harpers Hair

John Shannon (@JShannonhl) Tweeted:
As @FriedgeHNIC broke on the draft coverage, source confirms Sam Reinhart has indeed been moved to Florida.

https://twitter.com/JShannonhl/status/1418794170869747712?s=20

Harpers Hair

Elliotte Friedman (@FriedgeHNIC) Tweeted:
When this is done, believe G Devon Levi will be part of the return for BUF

https://twitter.com/FriedgeHNIC/status/1418794482695294982?s=20

Diablo

So Buffalo is going to trade away all of their good players and start over again with magic beans.

Going scorched earth doesn’t guarantee success … it’s more likely to lead to an endless cycle of disappointment when the magic beans fail to develop.

tsunami

been there, done that lol 😉

DevilsLettuce

This is a quality move, a real good asset in a position of weakness where the strengths of the team may speed up this skill draft picks arrival.

Plus an additional pick that isn’t hopefully shipped off for signing rights.

I memba the days of picking goalies in the 1st round around here as a sin.

Besides Stevie is just keeping Cossa warm so Holland can over pay for him later.

dangilitis

Can someone explain to me why everyone is upset we didn’t take a goaltender in the late first round? What are the odds that a) a #16-30 drafted goalie makes nhl impact, and develops quickly? Everything this blog has ever taught me is that predicting goalies is voodoo, and can often be bought without wasting high end draft picks or prospects.

Spartacus

And how is that strategy working out for us?

You don’t get an elite goaltender unless you draft one.

Goaltenders aren’t magical, they’re a lottery ticket just the same as the skaters are, but there are fewer of them in the system, thus fewer chances for the lottery ticket to cash in.

Draft a goalie every year, develop them, hope they work out and you have the most important component of the game covered.

Or just keep doing it the Oilers way.

Keep signing the oldest goalie in the world to term contracts.

Rich M

With all due respect, there was nothing in his scouting report that said he was an ‘elite’ goaltender. We have 3 potentially good goaltenders in the pipeline now. We don’t have a lot of scoring depth in the system. I’m perfectly fine with this pick.

tsunami

obviously you didn’t read Swedishposter’s comments about him

TheGreatBigMac

“Draft a goalie every year, develop them, hope they work out and you have the most important component of the game covered.”

That is what the Oilers have been doing.
2016 – Dylan Wells, 5th round, pick 123
2017 – Stuart Skinner, 3rd round , pick 78
2018 – Oliver Rodrigue, 2nd round, pick 62
2019 – Ilya Konovalov, 3rd round, pick 85

IMO, you don’t need to draft to get an elite goalie and while a great goalie is required to win they don’t have to be elite. The Vezina winner hasn’t won the cup since the Devils and Brodeur in 2003.

I am fine with either Bourgault or Waldsted, as long as the pick hits but the Oilers have spent plenty of their draft capital on goalies.

Last edited 2 months ago by TheGreatBigMac
Rondo

Jack Peart at #90 using LT’s rankings

Last edited 2 months ago by Rondo
Tarkus

Watching some YT clips of “The Bourg”.

His stature, his puck skills and his shot / release remind me of another player the Oilers drafted at #22 once upon a time:

Jordan Eberle.

theDjdj

His stick handling and puck skills are terrific. Very silky.

meanashell11

He’s bigger and more solid on the puck than Jordan. Seems to have some defensive chops as well.

Harpers Hair

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Canadiens Montréal

@CanadiensMTL

Canadiens statement on selecting Logan Mailloux.

https://goha.bs/3ruxvga

Randle McMurphy

Florida closing in on Sam Reinhart

They would then have Ekblad, Reinhart, and Bennett.

All they need is Draisaitl to complete the set.

Pescador

Florida can eat shit

Delen

All they need is the player easily worth more than those 3 combined

Tarkus

So The Athletic put together their own Top 100 Big Board, a consensus of both public and private rankings of 20+ rankings.

The top players left from that list available for Day 2:

17 – Aatu Raty
21 – Nikita Chibrikov
22 – Francesco Pinelli
24 – Logan Stankoven
29 – Simon Robertsson
30 – Samu Tuomaala

Would imagine the Oilers have a shot at a few of those players with their next two picks (assuming they don’t trade them away or add more).

Rondo

Matt Knies also

Harpers Hair

The Oilers don’t have a second round pick.

Tarkus

Never said they did.

I suppose I ought to clarify: by “those players”, I meant the players on the top 100, not necessarily the ones I listed.

Tarkus

For general interest’s sake?

Kinda like a certain someone who copies and pastes half of Twitter on here.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Then why cut your fingernails?

It’s kind of like posting about Canucks prospects on an Oilers blog…

Spartacus

Brilliant insight.

Nobody knew that.

This is what DSF brings to this blog.

Lowetide, the Canucks blogspot.

Dys fans are the worst.

Harpers Hair

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John Matisz

@MatiszJohn
·
15m

Canadiens release a statement after picking Logan Mallioux 31st overall

OriginalPouzar

In addition to the last 3 3rd rounders being legit prospects and one trending to be a top 4 NHL d-man very soon, last year’s 3rd rounder was turned in to Savoie and Tullio.

Todd Macallan

The Bourg is joining Tullio at the WJC dev camp for Canada coming up as well.

Randle McMurphy

Surprise Surprise.

Carey Price miraculously recovers.

Will be ready to start the season.

innercitysmytty

Yeah exactly, and Weber is done for good. NHL is total bush league when it comes to allowing teams to get away with this stuff.

Reja

I got worked over for suggestion funny stuff happens when millions are involved. Lots of naive people believe everything their fed.

Strapping Jocks

Didn’t our triathlete Andrew Ference get injured Longterm for a couple seasons, which benefited our cap?

YKOil

Okay pick, in the range at least. Will support the player but remain skeptical of Holland’s off-season. Would rather Wallstedt.

Great day for Detroit: Edvinsson and Cossa

Great day for Columbus: Johnson, Sillinger, Ceulemans, BOQVIST, BEAN, 2022 1st rounder

Great day for Buffalo: Power, Rosen, HAGG, 2023 2nd rounder

Liked what Minnesota did: Wallstedt and Lambos; but Wallstedt is the win there imo.

Tarkus

A humble suggestion of a nickname for the newest Oilers prospect:

“The Bourg”.

Todd Macallan

Resistance to this pick is futile.

Bling

Supercalifragilistic-XB-alidocious.

Randle McMurphy

And his Bro “The Berg”

Mr.Snrub

This is hockey so more like The Bourgsy

judgedrude

Bourgaultti (pronounced like Bugatti)

LoDog

Well Yzerman is a real dick and stole our
goalie. More than a few scouts think Cossa has the bigger upside.

I like the trade and pick and the next few years will show if Old Kenny or Young Gun (middle gun?) Yzerman made the better moves.

The Trade Guy

As soon as Steve moved up and took him it validated my belief that Cossa has got it. I love that smug confidence he has. A bit of P.Roy in him.

slurve

BTW, to secure a third rounder is not a promising move since it does not translate into guarantee success. I rather kept the 20th spot for Wallstedt instead. We lost our two second rounders in 2020 & 2021 due to a poor move to get Anthanosiou. Wow…I am more than disappointed.

OriginalPouzar

WOuld drafting the goalie have constituted guaranteed success?

slurve

No, but neither will Xavier B. At least Wallstedt was ranked higher by scouts and was both the BPA and a need. Can’t go wrong when Wallstedt fills both criteria. When Smith retires at 50, then perhaps Holland will contemplate on drafting a top tier goalie.

Last edited 2 months ago by slurve
Reja

Half the Oiler fan base has their head 3/4 of the way up Holland’s ass.

Randle McMurphy

Which half?

Reja

The ones that find 1W 7L playoff record acceptable under Holland’s reign Get a goalie that wins in OT and that allusive 3C. It’s not rocket science.

The Trade Guy

Well I don’t think either goalie in this draft was going to help with that the next few years anyways.

pts2pndr

No Oiler fan thinks the playoff record of 1-7 is acceptable but railing against the team is absolutely useless because it changes nothing! Analyzing what went wrong and trying to fix areas found lacking is far more productive. Your solution is an over simplification. But you do you and try not to tear at the character of the community. I find the posters here quite genuine in their posts on how to make the team better with the exception of HH.

pts2pndr

Most of the posters choose to judge the merits of the trade and or draft pick and not take a personal affront to the GM. Doing what some posters do and attack the character of the GM is non productive!

Redbird62

Carter Hart is the only goalie starter in the NHL drafted since 2016. He didn’t become a starter till the 4th season after being drafted, then was terrible in the 5th season. The next youngest starter was drafted in 2015. Chances of finding goalies like Price, Fleury and Luongo (taken in the top 5 not 20th and they still took 3 years post draft to become starters) being an NHL starter before Draisaitl’s contract is done or even McDavid’s is close to zero). If Holland is in win now mode or at least before those contracts come up for renewal, drafting a goalie at 20th is not particularly helpful.

Ice Sage

Spencer Knight, Thatcher Demko?
I think that’s the range of these 2 prospects this year and that coulda worked out with the timeline.
Maybe Skinner will yet turn out, he is 1-0 so far…

Reja

Bring back Moog are Fuhr. Every move Sather made turned to gold under Holland it feels like the man is scrambling.

Redbird62

Demko was drafted in 2014 and didn’t become a starter till 2020. Knight was drafted in 2019 and has played 4 NHL games so far. I am still doubtful he takes over from the $10 million man in his draft plus 3 season.

Harpers Hair

Elliotte Friedman (@FriedgeHNIC) Tweeted:
BUF and FLA are working hard on a Sam Reinhart deal

https://twitter.com/FriedgeHNIC/status/1418779099938627584?s=20

defmn

Boo.

Harpers Hair

I would guess the Sabres would have been interested in the Oilers first round pick.

tsunami

you have no idea what the Sabres want

N64

GMs departed a bit from the Bobfather list after 22. Six between 23 and 31 on board after 31 actual picks.

Last edited 2 months ago by N64
Brewha Ha

Who did Toronto get? Oh…right…

Pescador

Foligno

slurve

Well, Lowetide, the scouts have Jesper Wallstedt in the top 10. Oh yeah, Tippett wants to offer his prized Coyote goalie of yester- year a 6×6 contract after the 2024 term is up…What we need more than another scoring forward is a top goalie…yikes!

McSorley33

Love it.

One if the worst forward rosters in the NHL is getting help.

Plus, getting an extra pick is very well played.

Kenny deserves credit here.

Funny Bissonness

Columbus had a great day. Unfortunately, Johnson, Sillinger, and ceulemans have all announced their intention to test unrestricted free agency.

Lucinius

The Canadians drafting Logan Mailloux is.. odd. The guy dropped out of the draft and was on a lot of do not draft lists for a reason.

Harpers Hair

Waaaay off the board.

The player had requested that he not be picked at all.

Seems Montreal has a soft spot for redemption.

Bling

Button had some high praise for Bourgault. Patrice Bergeron lite with the tenacity of Jean Gabriel Pageau.

There’s an interesting parallel with this pick and Holloway, in that Bourgault would have been expected to score even a bit more than he did this year in the Q, same as Holloway in his draft year as a freshmen in the NCAA.

Will be interesting to see if Bourgault goes off as a 19 year old in the same manner as Holloway.

Last edited 2 months ago by Bling
OriginalPouzar

Holland clearly didn’t want the Swedish goalie over a forward.

Getting a 3rd round pick to move down two spots in the last 1/3 of the first round is great value.

The org’s last 3 3rd round picks are Konovalov, Samorukov and Skinner.

Both Skinner and Konovalov had a shot at being a legit NHL goalie as early as 2022/23 (maybe with some games this season). If not, Rodrigue may have the highest ceiling of them all.

Bling

Yes that’s a tidy piece of work by Holland.

I don’t mind not going for the goalie, looks like Holland trusted his scouts and got them their guy whilst adding a pick.

Harpers Hair

The organizations last third round picks are not playing in the NHL at this time.

Samorukov looks like a potential 2nd pairing D but that is far from certain.

That is far from great value…it’s the definition of crap shoot.

OriginalPouzar

The Oilers last 3 3rd rounders are trending to be NHL players – one almost assuredly will make it and that’s likely this year – legit shot at top 4 d-man.

The other two are goalies, who take longer, but are both looking like they may arrive in the next year or so – no sure thing.

Adding a 3rd round to move down two spots in the back third of the round is great value.

Harpers Hair

No it isn’t.

It’s a crap shoot.

OriginalPouzar

You keep saying that doesn’t make it true.

What’s an actual crap shoot is the difference between 20 and 22.

OriginalPouzar

Firstly, do you really want to play the “incorrect predictions game”, you?

Secondly, never ever ever said that.

Lastly, what does that have to do with anything?

Last edited 2 months ago by OriginalPouzar
oilersjo

when it comes to shooting crap you are the master

Rich M

In a draft that’s an even bigger crap shoot than normal – these guys have not had normal development curves because of COVID, doing things to increase your odds – adding picks is not bad.

It’s not a guarantee, but then again, it’s no guarantee that these 1st rounders are going to make it and we may not know until even further down the road because their development has been disrupted.

The only thing certain is hindsight.

Last edited 2 months ago by Rich M
Pescador

I think Arizona got terrific value from the 9th over spot in the draft today.
What do you think of Dylan Guenther?

Redbird62

You pretty much criticize every Oiler transaction generally without thinking don’t you. What a complete tool. Since 2005, looking at all players drafted between 20 and 22 overall, the 3 most successful were taken at 22, (Giroux, Eberle and Pacioretty) and its not even close. And since then only 2 more picks at 20 have played 100 games in the NHL versus picks at 22. The value of 20 over 22 is generally not much. So to get a 3rd (valued at about half of late first round pick), when you don’t want the player that the other team trading you that pick does want, is a decent move.

If Edmonton wanted Bourgault more than they wanted Wallstedt, better to get the third and Bourgault at 22 than pick Bourgault at 20 and get nothing.

Harpers Hair
Redbird62

That’s cute – you pick Dom’s model like he is some kind of expert and then leave it as if that is the 100% truth and nothing else matters.

There are many opinions out there how about this one:

https://myslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/sports/Schuckers_NHL_Draft.pdf

A little dated, but here is a more recent one:

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks/

Better yet, lets even look at the math in Dom’s model using his GSVA the one you cited. The 20th pick has a GSVA of 4.0 while 22 is 3.7 a difference of 0.3 (take your time, I know math is hard for you, as I have pointed out before). Meanwhile, pick 86 (Minnesota’s 3rd rounder sent to Edmonton) has a GSVA of 0.6 or twice what they gave up to get it, and if they wanted Bourgault more than Wallstadt they gave up nothing to get Dom’s 0.6 GVSA. You wouldn’t take a 10 percent raise or 20% raise no strings attached? And that is using Dom’s math, which is pretty suspect (xGF from any public source is of very limited value for assessing individual players)

Between 2005 and 2014 (enough time to make the NHL and play 100 games – players drafted after 2014 still have a decent chance) there were 299 players taken in the 3rd round. Of those, 81 have played more than 100 games, (27% or 1 in ~4) and 54 have played 200 games (17% or 1/6). Maybe you don’t draft Brad Marchand, Kris Letang or
Brayden Point, but you have a shot to get something that is a lot better than almost no value especially if you give up something you don’t want.

Last edited 2 months ago by Redbird62
jp

A third round pick is close to zero in value.

https://theathletic.com/1798463/2020/06/12/by-the-numbers-revisiting-the-true-value-of-a-draft-pick/?source=user_shared_article

If one were to read that article, it would tell them that pick #90 has greater value than the difference between #20 and #22. But why bother reading what you post, right?

dangilitis

The entire draft is a crapshoot, captain obvious

SpotTheLoon

That projection on Samorukov could also fit OEL. 😉

slurve

I disagree. The scouts rated Wallstedt in the top 10. Pick the best player available as well as need. Guess what we need a top goalie and was there for the Oilers. Disappointed and perplexed. I guess we must have the goalies in the farm system as guarantee to succeed after Smith reaches 50 yrs of age then break Howes’s record to boot.

Redbird62

Yet he was still available at 20th (19 really since Arizona’s pick was scratched) so at least 9 other actual NHL scouting staffs (as opposed to scouts not actually being paid by NHL teams) didn’t have him any where near their top 10 either.

The Trade Guy

Including Steve Yzerman who moved up and took a DIFFERENT goalie. So… yeah.

flyfish1168

Holland himself was a previous goalie for the Medicine Hat Tigers. I watched him play. I always thought he was going to make it

Bling

This seems like a good pick.

Bourgault ranks #15 in NHL e amongst forwards (#17 overall). Interestingly, his draft year – 1 season ranked #7 amongst forwards (#8 overall).

His numbers didn’t pop as much as other guys in his draft year, but they were still very good.

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/topdownhockey/viz/NHLEquivalencyandProspectProjections/ProspectProjections

McSorley33

Agreed.

Solid.

Randle McMurphy

Bourgault has the makings to become a top-six winger in the NHL. As mentioned previously, there are some concerns about his skating, but he has plenty of speed and agility and it has not hampered his offensive production nor his ability to transition seamlessly between zones. He can pick out open ice and always has his head up, looking for that opportunity. He’s drawn some comparisons to Brendan Gallagher, who also was scrutinized for his skating when he was drafted back in 2010. He’s also been compared to a more offensive, less defensive Blake Coleman in terms of his transition game, which is one of the best in the NHL.

Randle McMurphy

LT scrambling to update his board with a pick at 90. 🙂

Oil2Oilers

Solid double, no chance.of getting out the yard but will likely will make it to base. The home run swing was sitting there and Old Dutch chose to take the base on balls.

Randle McMurphy

Xavier Bourgault and a 3rd.

I’d call it an off the wall triple.

Last edited 2 months ago by Randle McMurphy
N64

~ I’m confused why we picked the Red Sox shortstop ~

Last edited 2 months ago by N64
McSorley33

Agreed.

Solid

judgedrude

Umm…you don’t get a double if you take a base on balls.

TruthHurts98

Can’t figure out what Holland is doing. I really don’t like the pick, not a great skater or very big. Lavoie has a better shot at the NHL. What is Kenny thinking? Wallstedt is sitting there! Possible franchise goalie, so the Oilers pass. The Oilers have below league average D with Larsson gone and are counting on 40 year old Smitty to hold down the fort??? They aren’t building a contender, they’re replicating the Leafs without the goaltending. What am I missing?!?

Crazy Pedestrian

im confident* that Holland is planning on signing or trading for a new #1 Goalie in the next coming days/weeks. And tbh, we do have a few decent goalie prospects bubbling under ready to pop. Gotta remember that goalies are voodoo.

*not really that confident

lenko

Then he shuda picked Lavoie—– oh wait, he already did.

PokeCheck

Columbus is having a good day.

leadfarmer

How did he get 6 PIM

Klam

I like getting the additional pick. That definitely helps our prospect pool out!

N64

This place will melt like Margaret Hamilton on a rainy day if Dubas gets the 3rd

Last edited 2 months ago by N64
jp

As it should!

doritogrande

Is it weird to say that he debuts at #4 on our prospect depth chart? I don’t know these Oilers anymore, slow-playing prospects and stuff.

leadfarmer

Well you are definitely a Holland type
Hyman Holloway and now you

Kert

It’s a pretty good type.