Marquee Moon

by Lowetide
Raphael Lavoie photo by Mark Williams

The Edmonton Oilers said goodbye this month to a bunch of players who had graduated to the NHL after spending time with the Bakersfield Condors. Ethan Bear and Caleb Jones got the most attention, but Jujhar Khaira is now with the Chicago Blackhawks and Joe Gambardella signed with the New Jersey Devils organization.

It’s the hockey version of the circle of life, and that means there are new players who will arrive in Bakersfield and in Edmonton this fall. Let’s have a look at both teams, and the 50-man list.

THE ATHLETIC!

I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here’s the latest!

POSSIBLE OILERS ROSTER (24)

This is 23 men, Oscar Klefbom on LTIR (so, 24) and there’s $828,000 in unspent do-re-mi. Kassian waivers to get things going as the season begins (Klefbom to LTIR). I do think we’ll see a LH defenseman added before the season, and a goalie at the deadline. Tomas Tatar is just out there with no contract, just saying. The forward group is looking damned dangerous, one more veteran hammer and we have liftoff.

BAKERSFIELD CONDORS (17)

The Condors will have 17 (give or take) Oilers contracts in Bakersfield, that makes our current 50-man total (41) insanely manageable between now and training camp. I honestly don’t recall an Oilers team being at 41 once through free agency.

THE 50-MAN, EARLY JULY 2016

There are many players on this list who are productive and on other NHL rosters, it’s kind of incredible how many players have exited since this list was put together five years ago. Remaining players: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Darnell Nurae, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Oscar Klefbom (injured), Zack Kassian. That’s six of 46, really five, and a lot of turnover.

CONDORS WHO HAVE PLAYED IN THE NHL

  1. Jujhar Khaira 258
  2. Jordan Oesterle 252
  3. Jesse Puljujarvi 194
  4. Brad Hunt 191
  5. Ethan Bear 132
  6. Iiro Pakarinen 134
  7. Kailer Yamamoto 105
  8. Anton Slepyshev 102
  9. Caleb Jones 93
  10. Laurent Brossoit 82
  11. Patrick Russell 59
  12. William Lagesson 27
  13. Josh Currie 22
  14. Evan Bouchard 21
  15. Joe Gambardella 15
  16. Ryan McLeod 10
  17. Tyler Benson 7
  18. Cooper Marody 6
  19. Dillon Simpson 3

I didn’t include names like Tyler Pitlick and Anton Lander, who played much of their minor-league games with the Oklahoma City Barons, because they were established by 2015 summer. There’s good work here, by the scouting staff and by the men who worked hard to find their way to the NHL.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

We kickstart the long weekend at 10, TSN1260. Steve Lansky from Inside the Truck podcast will pop in to tell us about how he spent his summer vacation and I’ll ask him if the Oilers are better after all the summer’s activity nears an end? plus NHL and MLB guests to guide us through massive weeks in those leagues. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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rickithebear

Looked at top 30 PK goal diff Fwds last 2 years:
1.5M worth of pK ability.
#1 Khaira 1:43/gm
#8 Foegele 1:03/gm
#28 Archibald 2:14
#29 RNH 1:48
#30 Ryan 1:42

rickithebear

Ryan:
using General zs based CF numbers is a fools gm.
A. does not differentiate for NZ def or No NZ def.

completely different proper Dman blue line technique for each.
B. their are 4 types of ZS:
a. high% OFF FO ZS
b. high% Def FO ZS
c. bench Change with pocession
d. Bench change without pocession.
No one is dumb enough to believe they are the same challenge!

C. Plus analytic teams do not even adjust for different per 60 shift volume of each player. (Sheltering)

My (07/08) Player situation graphing of xAverages for given data columns based on (Team, Comp, ZS) was rejected by academic minds on this site.
Sitting low resolution (Regression)methodology that does not apply to 3+ variable science.
Sample size, etc.

The data is the data.
you end up with 96 clear groups of expected performance.
You try to exclude Coach driven system & decision affects.

Go Oilers!

rickithebear

My DAD, “ Opinions are for people who do not have to worry about killing Someone.”

Opinion: Definition: Point of view not based on facts or Knowledge.

Classic Resoluttion joke:
Nasa Manager comes in to Astronaut, “We have determined that Gemini programming has the highest probability of getting to the moon.
Asronaut, “you going to argue for that”
Manager, “That is the goal.”
Astronaut, pulls out his gun and shots him in the head.
Stands over the dead body.
I want to:
-Get to the moon
-& get back
-Alive.
Security guard looks at Astronaut, “ we will throw the dumb fuck in with the gators like the other ones.

Goal differential evidence says Nurse is a bottom 20 def dman.
Many people’s opinion on here is sign him to 9M.

good thing it not life or death situation with astronauts with guns around.
you would be gator feed.

Tarkus

If only their timelines would have overlapped, we could have had our very own Academy Award-winning D-pairing of Ceci-Spacek.

John Chambers

im a big fan of your posts and have been for some time

VanIsleOil
Harpers Hair
Reja

Sheldon Souray.

Sierra

Yup

leadfarmer

I like Nurse but 9 mil per seems ridiculous

PokeCheck

The problem is someone will pay it and, looking over our roster, it better be us.

Harpers Hair
leadfarmer

That’s a very cheap deal for an LTIR spot

Harpers Hair

Zero risk bet…already working with Barb Underhill.

ColtsFan

Both Rishaug and Gazzola talked today about Holland wanting to save some cap space to use during the season. Am I missing something, or does that not work with Klefbom on LTIR?

dulock

LTIR is a bit weird but with the right maneuvering it is essentially the same as regular cap space

OriginalPouzar

No its not.

OriginalPouzar

A team will not accrue cap space while using LTIR reserves (in normal course, if a team is under their accrual threshold (normally the cap limit), the pro-rated daily portion they are under accrues and can be banked for later use – that is why a team with, say, $2M of cap space at the deadline may be able to acquire a $6M player – they’ve banked unused cap space.

This won’t happen when using LTIR and over the cap.

At the same time, some space under the artificially inflated cap space is important.

Lets say the Oilers get $3.5M of LTIR reserves with Klef – they were apx $600K under the cap on day 1 and then place him on LTIR. They could basically have a cap of $84M

If they were at $83.5M on deadline day, they wouldn’t be able to acquire even a league min player without cap going out.

Also, if they were at $83.5M and a player got hurt – for a couple days or a couple weeks, they could not call up a player to replace them as they wouldn’t have the cap room unless the injured player was put on LTIR (out for min 10 games or 3 weeks).

Oiler need to be able to make normal course roster adjustments during the season.

ColtsFan

Thanks OP. Much clearer now

defmn

I seem to be getting a lot of ‘waiting for approval’ messages today for some reason.

Harpers Hair

It is usually multiple links in one post.

defmn

Yeah, thanks, but I am getting them with no links.

Harpers Hair

Maybe OP wrote a letter to the Pope. 😀

Rebuildwhatrebuild

This place is such a bad place of bad takes now. Have fun trying to run Keith out of town. The rest of us will enjoy the winning they will do.

Ryan

I thought this might be worth re-posting since it is buried in the thread.

One of the most neglected and difficult to account for factors in analytics is the “team effect.”

A given player on a good team will generally have far better results than the same player on a poor team. In part due to better teammates, but also usually being slotted correctly in the lineup.

The only true glimpses we get into this effect are when a player changes teams like Nikita Zadarov. Zadarov was a #5 on Colorado and #3 on Chicago.

If you look at Zadarov, He played 302 against elites in Colorado.

CF 47.7%; DFF 47.5%; GF 52.2%

For Chicago: 232 min

CF 39.9%; DFF 35.8%; GF 38.5%

While this proves nothing, it offers a glimmer of hope that Keith will have better results on a far superior team, being correctly slotted in TOI on the Oilers than he did on Chicago.

Or if you like the overall stats (not adjusted for QOC)

Last edited 1 month ago by Ryan
Bling

Very cool, nice find Ryan.

One thing WG mentioned in his blog post today is that third pairing elite minutes sometimes have to be taken with a grain of salt, because they get on the fly shifts with the puck headed in the right direction.

Also, WG was showing that Keith was more “top 4” than “top 2.” Zadarov’s numbers look better as a third pairing guy on a good team than on the second pair with a bad team. Keith’s transition is more top 4 to top 4, with better QualTeam here. So not quite apples to apples (as far as these things go). I’ve said Keith would be fine for the third pair, the question is whether second pair is realistic. I looked at WG’s stuff as being more like, you may not be able to back off Keith’s usage as much as you think, because he wasn’t used like a true #1 D (EV) last season.

Interesting discussion for sure.

finn_fann

Re: 3rd pair minutes and qualcomp, I recall this being an important consideration for Benning. Looked like he was killing his time against elites, but almost never started a shift against them, iirc. Can definitely see how it could skew results

Ryan

Thanks.

I haven’t had time to read Woodguy’s article yet.I’ll do that tonight.

I think one of the last public contributions Dellow made was about on the fly shifts. I think that’s where Woodguy got that from, possibly.

You see that a lot with the classic example being Matt Benning. His advanced stats on the Oilers and rels all shone line a diamond, but he had the highest on the fly starts/60 on the team by a mile under multiple coaches.

Interestingly, Keith was second lowest in on the fly starts/60 which is a good indication that his coach trusted him, correctly or incorrectly.

Keith did play the most overall minutes, the second most minutes at 5v5, 1st unit PK (second most minutes), and second most PP minutes.

I’ll have a look at WG’s article.

Bling

You and finn_fann made the same point within 2 minutes of one another! Benning is a good example — I was actually a big fan of his because I thought his outlet passing was underrated and the guy, while not big, fought like a dog in the tough areas. One of my favourites.

The TOI is a good indicator the coach trusted him out there, Georges has brought that up.

The DYN line was a possession monster two seasons ago. I wonder if putting the Keith pair with them makes sense — less defending for Keith, take advantage of his strength on the transition and o-zone.

LoDog

Isnt that basically what georges has been telling everyone for years?

Ryan

I don’t recall.

Georgisms.

  1. points/game is the holy grail of predicting future offensive production
  2. “not much sticks to defensemen other than TOI and points/game”
Last edited 1 month ago by Ryan
LoDog

Cant speak for him

But your advanced stats are not all that when projecting up. Or sideways or whatever.

TheGreatBigMac

Here’s what the oilers look like in 2022-23 with 8 x $9 for Nurse and resigning other RFAs to conservative contracts. There isn’t much cap room to make adjustments until 23-24. https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/2672880

Reja

The cap has to be going up next year or else Bowman and the Finn are bat shit crazy.

Lewis Grant

I don’t think the cap is going up.

Consider that the same Bowman who was dumb enough to throw $76M at Seth Jones was also smart enough to smoke out Holland on Keith. That doesn’t reflect well on Kenny’s ability.

leadfarmer

Well the league wide cap went up 80 million this year

Reja

Kenny was doing his old buddy a solid as much as Messier Gretzky Anderson etc… will always be a Oiler even while there lying on there deathbed, Kenny on the other side will have a tattoo of a Red Wing on his ass.

OriginalPouzar

The cap is most definitely not going up next season (except for potentially $1M).

Even if HRR recovers to the needed $4.8B, cap doesn’t go over $82.5M until the escrow balance is paid off – that’s a few years away at the earliest.

leadfarmer

I’ll be willing to bet they start raising cap before the balance is paid off

OriginalPouzar

Not without the consent of all parties and an amendment to the CBA – its documented in contract.

OriginalPouzar

Friedman, on Oilers Now today, said they are looking to get the Nurse deal done this off-season and, with the recent signings, it may have pivoted from a 4-year term to a max term deal at big money (approaching $9M).

Oilers were close on Kuemper.

JOFA

His contract needs to come in lower than Draisaitl’s IMO. 8 X 8 is the max I would feel comfortable with. He’s had one amazing year.

godot10

Swiftian wisdom “Haters are gonna hate.”

leadfarmer

Wonder what close means.
im guessing they liked the Avs player better then Sammy and probably didn’t Koskinen but the first rounder would sway me

leadfarmer

Although happy to see we are targeting the right goalies with Markstrom and now Kuemper

Harpers Hair

The equivalent would have been a first and Bouchard with no Koskinen in the transaction.

OriginalPouzar

More like a 1st and Samorukov.

Bouchard > Timmons value wise and Sammy is closer to Timmons’ value

Oilers first likely > Avs 1st.

Harpers Hair

Timmins has more NHL games played than Bouchard…more value.

jp

Following this absurd logic Timmins > Bouchard > Byram > Power

Is that what you were going for?

Harpers Hair

Byram and Power are teenagers.

Despite missing an entire season due to injury, Timmins was able to play significant games on one of the most stacked defensive teams in the league.

Samorukov has nowhere near that value no matter how much OP would like that to be true.

OriginalPouzar

Good grief.

JOFA

Would anyone be interested in a Paul Coffey rookie card?

I hope this is ok to put this here Al

Brantford Boy

Uh yes please… my favorite player ever!

JOFA

Not sure how we would make a connection. Are you in the Edmonton area?

Brantford Boy

Unfortunately no… but I have a good buddy who can probably meet you and I can get it when I visit hopefully for the Pens game if need be? If it doesn’t work out, it’s all good.

leadfarmer

im Guessing that Sammy and 1st and Koskinen is what we offered for Kuemper but if that’s what we offer for Korpisalo that’s gonna be Chia offering a 1st and 2nd for Hamilton and then just offering the same thing for Reinhart

leadfarmer

It’s like you’ve mentally accepted the price you are going to pay without knowing what you are buying

Randle McMurphy

Edit

Last edited 1 month ago by Randle McMurphy
Scungilli Slushy

I deeply hope Holland isn’t so dense

Two years of low games played

Not young. One year left under contract

If they like Bro better, Samu and Koski and fini, or walk.

defmn

Hey, we won something. 😉

@ThePHWA
is pleased to announce #Canes, #Oilers, #Pens and #mnwildhttps as winners of the 2021 Dick Dillman Award for PR excellence. This was the most difficult season to cover the NHL in our organization’s 54-year history and we’re thankful for the support.

jp

I wonder if birthday wishes to unsigned Blumel and Barrie got the PR team over the hump?

Reja

The minute they signed Barrie there was a good chance he would knock it out of the park and he did and was rewarded with a nice 3 year deal. I don’t get all the hate for Barrie who really jived with Nurse I myself enjoyed watching that 5 man unit dominate on most occasions.

jp

Yeah I think it’s pretty overblown too.

The guy does battle hard. He doesn’t win them all, but it’s not like he’s floating out there.

Randle McMurphy

Awesome. Now give us the All-Star game and the Entry Draft.

Lewis Grant

Are we really sure we want to sign Nurse *right now*? Will he ever have higher value than finishing seventh in Norris voting? After being stapled to McDavid? After shooting 10.4%? (Almost triple his previous career average of 3.8%.)

10.4%?! That is higher than the career averages for a lot of star forwards, including Nathan MacKinnon and Taylor Hall.

I agree that we want to lock up Nurse. But maybe his value comes down a little when he has 15 points in the first 40 games of next season, and he realizes that this past season was a statistical outlier.

Elgin R

Get it done before the trade deadline or trade him. Letting a player walk (see Larsson, Adam) is poor asset management. I am confident Nurse will stay and that Holland will overpay a little. $8.5m x 8 to match Draisaitl.

pts2pndr

If the Oilers do as well as I expect, given our off season additions it is probable that Nurses success will mirror the teams. If so, the smart money says get him signed now. Letting him go to UFA is idiocy at its finest. Top pairing D are not going to get cheaper and with the cap expecting to start rising in 2-3 years and possibly sooner the risk far out out weighs the getting it done as soon as possible is the prudent way to proceed.

Lewis Grant

If the Oilers do as well as I expect

Hasn’t Katz heard a lot of sales pitches that begin with this phrase? Maybe from Kevin Lowe? And from Steve Tambellini? And Craig MacTavish? And Peter Chiarelli?

pts2pndr

I understand why Oiler fans might be skeptical but from my point of view for the first time in a very long time the team has two bonafide scoring lines. The teams power play should stay the same with only one question mark and that is the D. Goal tending the same as last year. Given that the team is playing in a relatively easy division it is reasonable to expect reasonably the same results as last year and we do have young players on the farm available for injury cover. The roster while not perfect is I believe improved over last year!

Lewis Grant

….and once everyone realizes that Nurse is scoring at a rate far below Dougie Hamilton? And once it becomes crystal-clear that Zach Werenski and Seth Jones were *massive* overpays?

godot10

The Nurse haters are back with the same nonsense. If we wait a little longer we’ll get him for cheaper. Except now, if you don’t sign him now, he is gone next summer.

Somebody said to sign him for 8 x $5.5 after his ELC. We would have four more years right now at that number. But the haters said that was ridiculous.

After his transition deal, somebody said sign him for 8 x $6.5. But the haters said that was ridiculous.

So now we are here again a year from UFA, with Nurse holding all the cards after proving the Nurse haters were full of it.

The OIlers are damn lucky that Nurse is not likely to ask for more than Draisaitl, but it might well take the Hamilton deal and a 9 as the first number of the AAV.

Lewis Grant

The Nurse haters are back with the same nonsense.

Uh, Nurse hater?

Am I a Seth Jones hater for saying that he’s not worth $9.5M? A Zach Werenski hater for saying that he’s not worth $9.6M?

All three of these are good players whom I’d love to have on the Oilers. But in the cap era, you don’t sign players, you sign contracts. Everyone’s value is relative to their cap hit.

I think there’s a way to get Nurse’s cap hit down.

leadfarmer

And now we get Nurse for the rest of his prime

pts2pndr

The market price is the market price. I would love for you to enlighten us as to how you get the Nurse cost down.

Lewis Grant

How to get the Nurse cost down? Maybe consider waiting until his season shooting percentage is lower than Taylor Hall and Nathan MacKinnon’s career average shooting percentage. In other words, wait 2-3 months into the coming season.

The market price was also the market price for Nikolai Khabibulin and Ethan Moreau and Milan Lucic.

Sometimes the market price goes down.

godot10

So your plan is to challenge Darnell Nurse like MacT challenged Jeff Petry.

#NurseHaterBS never ends.

The Nurse haters and doubters (insiders and outsiders) have had their day. Nurse challenged your BS narratives, bet on himself, and won.

Time for the losers to pay up.

Lewis Grant

Ah, it’s always a pleasure when somebody reads my writing so accurately! A fine day to you too, sir.

pts2pndr

What you say could happen however Nurse could dig in and let all teams bid on his service when he becomes a UFA. This is similar to the way Larsson was dealt with and the results are self evident. His quality of player is quite frankly not readily available!

leadfarmer

Something something Rfa years something something UFA years

OriginalPouzar

Lewis Grant

 Reply to pts2pndr

 July 30, 2021 5:00 pm

How to get the Nurse cost down? Maybe consider waiting until his season shooting percentage is lower than Taylor Hall and Nathan MacKinnon’s career average shooting percentage. In other words, wait 2-3 months into the coming season.

I don’t consider Nurse’s uptick if 5 on 5 goals to be that major of a factor in his value. He is worth the $8M plus based on his overall game – he is probably just as important to team success as Drai.

Nurse’s offence is just one small part of his overall game and his overall game has improved, yes over year, since his draft day.

Take away his goal scoring spike, he has still been a top 10 (or so) offensive producer at evens for a number of years now.

Lewis Grant

Yeah, all good points. Nurse has definitely improved, and I want to see him around. I’d think about signing him at $8M per.

I just think that his *perceived* value will go down over the next 40 games, which would give us plenty of time to re-sign him. Defensemen can vary a lot from season to season.

OriginalPouzar

You very well could be right – I don’t expect him to score at a 20 goal pace (pretty much all at evens) to start next season but I also believe that Darnell’s representative will be able to present a fairly solid picture of his overall value based on his career that his value won’t really go down much.

Also, his selection to the Canadian Olympic team will be another feather and there is also the fact that players are rarely negotiating contracts in the first few months of the season – concentrate on hockey.

jeetz

I’ll just put this out there.

As far as I am concerned the forwards are set. No more acquisitions needed. We have some level of balance and we have rookies pushing for jobs. PLUS there are always training camp surprises and waivers.

in regards to goaltending, I believe the defense make the goalie, not including elite goal tenders. Keep our 2 (smith and kosk) keep an eye on waivers plus use the trade deadline as needed.

On defense though, we need 8 competent defenders. Currently our top 4 is Nurse, Barrie Keith Ceci. Our bottom 4 is Bouchard Russell Lagesson. That is it.

My target would be Ryan Murray. Perfect partner for Bouchard. Those 2 could push for second pairing minutes.

if we got him, I would stop and go into training camp with this roster of players. I would not push for a goalie. That ship has sailed for now

TheGreatBigMac

How would you target Murray we have almost no money. If we waive Laggeson and take the $800k from LT’s team above, that’s $1.5M. Doubt Murray is signing for that. What other moves do you make to get cap?

Messier11

What if we trade Kassian for a pick?

OriginalPouzar

If they retained some cap hit……

Bling

WG, nice post.

Interesting how different people are reading different things into what you found. My reading of this is that those (i.e. Spec) saying that Keith will thrive in a lesser role are in the wrong, but that Keith may benefit from better teammates. I’m not sure what you’ve put together is any solace to the Keith advocates, although they may take it that way.

I want to key in on something, which is, can Keith thrive with elite teammates? Kane is no river pusher, but my limited watching of him is that he is a complete nuclear threat with his passing game. Goal line to goal line, he is tremendous at moving the puck. And he scores. So while he isn’t a McDavid, if Keith is good he should perform well with Kane, right?

I used your (and G. Money’s) site.

Keith WOWY Kane (TOI, CF%, DFF%, GF%)

Keith w Kane elite: 62, 38, 39, 22.
Keith w Kane mid: 173, 44, 36, 40.
Keith w Kane grit: 101, 50, 49, 73.

So Kane + Keith was basically a nightmare against elite and mid comp.

Here are the without numbers:

Kane wo Keith elite: 126, 43, 40, 30
Kane wo Keith mid: 249, 45, 47, 48
Kane wo Keith grit: 195, 48, 49, 78.

Keith wo Kane elite: 143, 49, 48, 43.
Keith wo Kane middle: 274, 42, 41, 45.
Keith wo Kane: 176, 47, 50, 44.

My comments here are as follows, and I am trying desperately not to appeal to authority:

1 – Keith + Kane was HORRIBLE against elites. Kane was better off without Keith and Keith was better off without Kane. Both were bad. But opposing coaches target Kane (i.e. he gets killed no matter who is out there with him). But when Keith is out there…he actually made the problem worse. Not good (IMO).

2 – Why is Keith struggling with and without Kane against middle opponents? This is purportedly the role he will play in EDM — middle opp with elite linemates. Kane gets to almost 50% GF against middle opponents with underlying numbers approaching respectability. Keith’s underlying numbers go into the toilet (CF, DFF).

3 – Keith struggled against weak opposition without Kane. Kane killed them regardless of whether Keith was on the ice, and he actually killed them a little bit more with Keith on the bench. Now forwards drive GF for sure, but why can’t Keith play grits to a stand still?

I don’t see a lot to be optimistic about here. In fact, I am extremely concerned, and dare I say it, bearish. I see a player that will need to be babysat as much or more than Barrie was last season.

The positive: Keith without Kane against elites had good underlying numbers. So maybe that’s something you can hold onto. Results (GF%) still bad.

Guess we’ll see.

Ryan

I’ve chatted with GMoney in the past. He advised that toi buckets < 150 min are unreliable and that’s for Corsi data.

Over 150 minutes is okay. Over 300 minutes is better. – for Corsi data

For goal data, you need 3-4 x that.

leadfarmer

I’ve always found minutes under 200 almost worthless

Bling

In this instance, the larger sample sizes aren’t kind to Keith for elite and middle opponents:

http://www.puckiq.com/woodmoney?team=chi

The other question to ask is what is the error bar or confidence interval. We are unsure in smaller sample sizes, but Keith having a 22% goal share against elites with Kane is damn concerning. How big does that error bar have to be for us to say we’re drawing the wrong conclusion, that Keith is actually good against elites? It’s a big error bar. We’re getting into type 1 and type 2 error stuff — not a stats person — but what strikes me is the magnitude of these numbers. Truly awful.

To discount these numbers, you are saying Keith was extraordinarily unlucky. Maybe so. But he’s an aging player who has clearly already declined from his peak.

I think Keith advocates would have a stronger argument for better performance in a reduced role if:

1 – Keith played well against middle and low comp.
2 – He had a positive effect on the team’s top offensive player.
3 – The new role was third pairing D and not second pairing D.

As it stands, this is a pure guess.

The other issue I have is the end will come for Duncan Keith as it comes for all players. Is that this year, the year after, the year after that? No one knows. But the cliff is coming. Or…was this past season the cliff?

Ryan

Agreed, there’s no other way to slice it or dice it, the numbers for Keith last year are very bad. Keith could absolutely be finished. It was a gord awful trade to boot. I think that there were a lot of other better options. I stated, I would not have traded for Duncan Keith unless it was maybe 1:1 for James Neal or something.

The ‘hope’ is that the bad numbers are ‘possibly’ due to a “team effect,” in part at least.

If you look at Zadarov

He played 302 against elites in Colorado.

CF 47.7%; DFF 47.5%; GF 52.2%

For Chicago: 232 min

CF 39.9%; DFF 35.8%; GF 38.5%

JimmyV1965

Geez, it looks to me that the coach did everything he could to keep Keith and Kane separated.

My reading of the WW post was we don’t know. His performance could go either way.

Redbird62

Keith 5 on 5 played more with Kane than with any other Chicago forward, and Kane played more with Keith than any other defender. So no, the coach was definitely not trying to keep them separated.

OriginalPouzar

The cost for Korpisalo is Mikko, a 1st and Samorukov (per Seravelli) – I know Mikko has extreme negative value with his contract but that is absurd.

Mikko is better than Korpisalo.

leadfarmer

yikes.
definitely pass
try Georgiev or just go with the same tandem

cowboy bill

Korpisalo gets paid $2.8M this season then becomes UFA . So there’s savings there . And I wonder if he has better puck handling skills ?

leadfarmer

If Holland does that he’s an idiot

JimmyV1965

What would the reaction be if he actually did that? Wow. That’s an almost delusional ask.

jp

That’s an almost delusional ask.

I think you’re being very kind here.

It’s so out there it’s a bit difficult to believe.

pts2pndr

Holland set the bar low with the Keith deal!😉

DevilsLettuce

Are there any goalies skating with the McDavid stable?

Darth Tu

Hard LOL. Vasilevsky please?

Darth Tu

Re: Korpisalo, see comments from Armchair and myself below.

It’s a hard no at any cost for me. I’d be more confident with Stalock as the confirmed backup than Korpisalo. Which, heck could happen anyways if we were to trade for Korpisalo and he looks abysmal in camp. Then we’ve given up more assets to end up right where we are now.

Agree with Leadfarmer, sound out Georgiev and see what’s cooking there or just stand pat. It’s not ideal, but it wasn’t terrible last year. Maybe a deal for another goaltender can be done mid season if things aren’t looking terribly good.

Reja

I keep thinking get a Goalie Holland maybe we have him in Stalock he does play a steady eddy game and that may be all we need. If Stalock can make the saves he’s suppose to and with our improved offence we should be able to challenge anyone. I wished they would of gave him a test run last year but anyhow could Stalock be the unsung hero were looking for between the pipes.

TheGreatBigMac

If the trade is not for an upgrade in goal, i.e Merzlikins, then either keep Koski or go with Stalock and trade a pick for Koski’s cap – not more than a 2023 2nd.

YKOil

Would pass on that trade with prejudice.

That is a Chiarelli trade all the way. Holland, Do not do this.

Pay the price for Koskinen another year, it sucks but it is what it is. Do not compound the mistake.

Moonlight Overthrow

This.

At this point, just wait it out. Not what I has hoping for prior to free agency, but only pay the price for the right piece. Korpisalo isn’t it.

Move forward with the current tandem and waive Kassian prior to the start of the season to get cap compliant with Klefbom on the roster. LTIR Klef on day 1, accrue cap space and get a goalie at the deadline.

TheGreatBigMac

You don’t accrue cap on LTIR, it will be money in/out, but we can still trade Koski for Merzlikins or Greiss now or at the deadline. Prices will be high though, remember 2 2nds for AA and the goalie will be a one year rental if we can’t get more cap. The whole Koski upgrade seems pretty unlikely to me this season.

Last edited 1 month ago by TheGreatBigMac
OriginalPouzar

I don’t see them putting Kassian on waivers with the view of sending him down for cap compliance. They value him enough to protect him and, while I don’t see any team picking him up at full freight on the eve of the season, you never know and I don’t see Holland risking him.

I think a combo of McLeod and Bouchard being assigned or waiving Devon Shore will get er done.

leadfarmer

He fits the mold of the forwards they want. They see him as an asset

Randle McMurphy

Bob Stauffer put it out there today (or yesterday?) to expect to see Kassian start the season in the top 6.

I fully expect the same, and look forward to it.

Last edited 1 month ago by Randle McMurphy
OriginalPouzar

If he earns it by playing like he did from October – December 2019 then, 100%, that would be the best case scenario with Yamamoto on an elite 3rd line

leadfarmer

Wonder what some of these guys think of their new contracts
Hall without Krejci
Driedger though he was starter and now backup

leadfarmer

Krejci returning to Czech rep

Revolved

LT, I implore you to stop placing Archibald on the third line. It burns!

OriginalPouzar

I agree that Archibald is a 4th line RW/PK guy – when he’s asked to play up the lineup, he can do a serviceable job but a “contending team” has Archie on line 4. Tampa had Coleman and Goodrow as 3rd line wingers.

flyfish1168

Would you like it better if he is placed on the 2nd line?

Reja

With the additions Hollaway Foegele and Hyman we should have our best forecheck since the lunch pail gang of the mid Nineties.

PennersPancakes

The Lunch Pail Gang made some noise and Weight/Arnott are no slouches but Mcdavid/Drai are a whole other level. This forward group is going to turn some heads.

Last edited 1 month ago by PennersPancakes
Redbird62

The forwards from the ’06 playoff run was a pretty good group for forechecking (Smythe, Pisani, Peca, Stoll, Torres, Moreau and Horcoff), just not quite at the same level of finishing as what the Oilers have now. They rank 3rd in goals per game of Oiler teams since 05/06 (just behind the last 2 seasons), but they had the benefit of the post lockout penalty calling spree.

I do think this new group is going to be harder to play against than the past 2 seasons and create more chaos in the opposition zone.

maxwellmischief

I love Ethan Bear and I know lots of people are thinking it’s Petry 2.0 .. but I will throw this out there .. what if Ceci is our Petry? Both big (6’2 210), right shot, fluid skating, puck moving, engaged offensively, capable shooters. Their boxcars to age 27 are surprisingly similar. Both promising players, banished from their draft team and sent off to learn the other side of the puck from other organizations. I can’t provide a WAR chart or analytics grid or whatever the number lovers are using these days, maybe someone can crush me with their data. But the ol eye test reveals pretty similar players.
I know this fan base has collective PTSD from failures past. But if you take a step back from the anger, there is a lot to look forward to.
Probably Ceci isn’t Petry.. And Duncan Keith, I understand, isn’t the Duncan Keith from 2016.. but the Oilers will ice a legitimate defence next year. Legit top 4 (and Bouch could play a factor in that by years end). Add to them an improved forward group and I think team defending will be much improved. Starting in the other end on the forecheck, added pressure on the backcheck, and better retrieval in the dzone. Hyman, Ryan, and Foegele are the types of players that help fancy stats for a whole team.
anyway… I’m excited about this group. Front and back. And I think fans will be excited when they see the new brand of hockey the team plays.

Fuge Udvar

I had the same thought recently. Lots of Dmen take until 26-27-28 to put all the pieces together. I wouldn’t say it is likely but it’s a possibility.

JimmyV1965

Holland should have traded for a RHD, but he got the best RHD in free agency.

godot10

Ceci is Cody Franson.

OriginalPouzar

Or he’s Oleksiak…..

godot10

Oleksiak isn’t very good either.

OriginalPouzar

I believe that Oleksiak is over-rated but I don’t believe he is simply a product of Miro H. and that he shows to be a legit top 4 d-man without him.

He is an example of a fairly high pedigree d-man that found his NHL top 4 game in to his later 20s.

Ryan

From last thread, I just wanted to leave this here for those who missed it.

Lt’s possible lines from a comment he made at the Athletic.

Hyman-97-Puljujarvi
Foegele-29-Yamamoto
Holloway-93-Archibald//Kassian

Maybe we can extrapolate that to:

Hyman-97-Puljuvarji
Foegele-29-Yamamoto
Holloway-93-Kassian
Mcleod-Ryan-Archibald

If Holloway can make the grade this year, that forward group, if not goaltending and defense, would be balance photo worthy.

DevilsLettuce

93 is Leon’s winger, stapling him as 3C is a misuse of assets.

93 will not post offense and be buried by the commentators if Holloway and Kassian are his wings on a 3rd line.

leadfarmer

Nuge mentoring Holloway is the best use of assets IMO. Unfortunately Kassian is a bit of a square peg

DevilsLettuce

Is it? It’s better to have Nuge as a mentoring 3C when he could be Leon’s wing and the Oilers could run 2 #1 lines? While Ryan and McLeod take care of the bottom 2? But let’s run Nuge as a 3C mentor? Is Nuge 33? Has his wheels fallen off? Pencil Nuge in for a 30pt mentor role, trade him for a mentor 3C and probably get some other assets back if that’s how it’s going to play out.

You can trade Nuge for a mentor 3C and get probably some prospects or picks. That would be better asset management then running a top 6 LW as 3C because people won’t stop believing we live in Narnia and 3 scoring lines is a thing.

Wouldn’t Derek Ryan as 3c or 4c with him Mentoring McLeod as the other 3C or 4C make more sense? Or are the Oilers now going to slap McLeod on Ryan’s wing and stop his C development.

If the Oilers are going to trot Nuge out as 3c, trade him and get a 3C and some more pieces. That would be proper asset management.

Fuge Udvar

I know you are arguing against playing Nuge at 3C more than arguing for trading Nuge. But he has a NMC

cowboy bill

Nuge has a NMC . The Oilers would be fortunate to be able to use him at 3c , And it’s a solid option that is certainly available to them especially if they are able to sign another LW , i.e. ( Nick Ritchie or Tomas Tartar ) Holland isn’t done yet . But yeah, Derrek Ryan would be a fine mentor for Ryan MacLeod on the fourth line , good thinking .

Ryan

True, but if the choice is between Archibald and Kassian…

Kassian has had success at 5v5. He tends to fall into the abyss when not playing with skill.

Archibald can’t produce at all at 5v5 except in brief stints with 97. Archibald peaked at 1.43 points/60 at 5v5 in 2017.

Both were under 1 point/60 last year which is below the Mendoza line.

Ideally, we’d find an upgrade, but I am not sure that’s likely.

Ryan

Haven’t you heard of unicorns?

Nuge struggled mightily in a top six role at 5v5 last year. (1.16 points/60)

I’d love to see Foegele with 29. That line could use a bit of size on the wings. I used to cringe when 29 was flanked by Yamamoto and Ennis.

Foegele produced at a higher rate than Nuge last year at 5v5.

Nuge will still be on the powerplay where he produces most of his points.

defmn

And on the PK as well perhaps.

I have long argued against Nuge as the 3C for various reasons but now that he has signed long term the only real issue is face offs.

The game is changing and 3 scoring lines is not the unicorn it once was.

Ryan

How has the game changed? Depth scoring is more important than ever particularly having 3/4 lines that don’t bleed goals.

The Oilers have long had a 3rd line that gets taken behind the woodshed. Ask Woodguy.

I watch a lot of Colorado too. They load up the big line and rely on that a fair amount, but they have depth scoring on the third line. They had Donskoi–I can’t stop calling him ‘donkey’ after I read that in a thread at the Athletic even though it was presumably a typo from autocorrect. Anyway, Donskoi was on their 4rth line for a bunch of the year. That’s a guy who scored 17 goals.

Vegas has some low event 3/4 lines that have a nice hard forecheck, don’t score a ton, but saw off pretty well.

jp

How has the game changed? 

I believe he means it’s changing such that having a 3rd scoring line isn’t as rare as it was. Agreeing with you.

I have no issue with Nuge at 3C either, though I think it would be even better if Foegele-Ryan-Kassian/Archibald can break even/outscore so Nuge can remain in the top 6.

OriginalPouzar

If Hyman can continue for a few years and Holloway can prove to be a legit top 6 winger in the next little while, 100%, Nuge at 3C should be explored.

The champs just had Yanni Gourde playing 3C. Imagine a more developed McLeod at 4C (if he continues to develop up).

Nuge at 3C is the type of depth that wins cups – they aren’t quite there yet (I don’t think) but could be soon.

jp

Yeah I thought of Gourde regarding Nuge at 3C.

It’s true they could get to a similar place depth wise if Holloway and maybe one other develops/rebounds (Kassian). Goodrow was part of TBay’s top 9 after all.

cowboy bill

I’d like to see them add Nick Ritchie & Ryan Murray . Of course that would mean there would be no need for Benson , Marody or Lagesson on the roster . But this would be a serious group to deal with . I don’t know how they would all line up but they would have Hyman , Foegele , Ritchie , MacLeod & Shore on the left side , McDavid , Draisaitl , Nuge ,Ryan as centers and a right side with Jesse , Yamo , Kassian & Archibald plus possibly Holloway .

Defensively there’s Nurse & Barrie , Keith & Ceci , Murray & Bouchard with Russell and a stable of youngsters chomping at the bit .

I really like that group , then there’s the goaltenders .

Last edited 1 month ago by cowboy bill
Ryan

Ritchie would be a great add. I’ve been banging on that drum for a while. I am not sure how his salary would fit though.

jp

There’d probably have to be some money out. Though using LTs posted contracts Holland can spend a bit more than $1.5M even without other shoes dropping (LTs 800k remaining plus whoever is replaced on the roster – likely Marody at 950k).

Ritchie’s most recent deal was 3 x $1.5, so maybe..

It would be kinda funny if Holland is able to move Koskinen with salary retained, but then used the money on a forward leaving Smith/Stalock as the tandem in net.

Last edited 1 month ago by jp
Harpers Hair

Friedman saying Oilers now shifting to negotiating an 8 year deal for Nurse.

Dac189

Nice

I’d be happy with 8.5*8

Harpers Hair

Given the contracts signed in the last few days, I suspect it could start with a 9.

Dac189

Team friendly discount maybe?
Give him 8,500,001 so he’s making more than Draisaitl

Darth Tu

Good old Blackhawks overpaying Seth Jones.

leadfarmer

its only UFA years so if we can get him at Drai contract it would be a steal

Side

If Nurse played for the Canucks and someone said to you:

Given the contracts signed in the last few days, I suspect it could start with a 9″

You would reply with:

“Nurse is committed to the Oilers. He’ll take a cut to remain with the core”

Similarly to how you have been proclaiming that Grubauer, Makar, Landeskog, etc. Would all take cuts to keep playing for the Avalanche.

Some days you seem engage in genuine discussions. Most days though.. it’s stuff like this. What a shame.

Harpers Hair

Landeskog took a huge discount.

Ryan

Remember when Holland had to bridge Nurse after he bought out Sekera, because he paid Chiasson over $2m?

jp

Maybe I’m misremembering, but I feel like 95% of the consternation over giving Chiasson $2M+ was it blocking a top 6 F add (Dzingel being the main candidate after Connolly chose Florida).

There were a few voices lamenting it blocking a Nurse extension, but many also thought Nurse was a meh 2nd pair D 24 months ago.

Redbird62

You may be mixing up Nurse signings. Nurse signed his current contract extension in February 2020 to come into effect for the 2020-21 season. That was 8 months after the Sekera and Chiasson contracts. And that 2 year extension was Nurse’s choice as well, as Holland was pitching 5, but Nurse wanted a bigger $$ amount than Holland was offering at 5 years. Chiasson may not have been full value for his $ 2 million, but he was pretty close. And if Holland hadn’t bought out Sekera, instead of $1.5 million in cap, the Oilers would have had $5.5 million in cap so could have had less cap money when negotiating with Nurse. Also in February of 2020, Holland wouldn’t have known he was going to lose his then number 1 left D, for probably at least 2 seasons.

Chiarelli was the one who gave Nurse his first real bridge in 2018, because he was up against the cap and couldn’t go more than about $4.5 million per season for a long term deal at the time, and Nurse’s camp was looking for the 5.5 million per plus at the time. The Nurse deal wasn’t signed till late September so the rest of the roster was filled out and anything over about $4.75 million would have put the Oilers over the cap, so they settled on the 2 year $3.2 bridge.

Bobcaygeon

Ya, It’s easy to blame Holland for that one specific contract , specifically when Chiarelli bloated the roster with bad contracts but ya, that one contract to Chassion was the burner…..

Last edited 1 month ago by Bobcaygeon
leadfarmer

That would be best
lock him up through his prime

Reja

I can see him signing a 4-5 year deal to line up with his buddies Leon and Connor contracts. If they do lock him up for 8 this could be good news for resigning Connor and Leon when their contracts run out.

jp

I’d love for it to be 8 years, much more for the team/core commitment than the hockey side (not discounting that either, but Nurse, Nuge, Hyman all signed beyond McDavid and Draisaitl would bode well for them sticking around too).

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair

 Reply to Side

 July 30, 2021 3:27 pm

Landeskog took a huge discount.

If that’s true then Nuge took a massive discount – I take Landeskog over Nuge but he is certainly not $2M more per season – not based off of their careers (which encompass much more than just last season)

dustrock

I’d love to add Tatar, think he’d be almost a perfect fit for opportunity and cost.

Problem is they have to get Foegele and Yamamotor signed and are looking at maybe extending Nurse as well.

Unless they can move out salary or get a 2nd buyout for Koskinen through arbitration, not sure it happens.

Elgin R

Yes, KY does have a Yama-motor that does just not quit!

OriginalPouzar

Would love Tatar – have been beating that drum all off-season, although, unless Kassian is moving, that ship has sailed.

The Nurse extension only is a factor of Tatar gets term and my premise for a Tatar signing would be a one year value replenish type deal.

Without a Kass disposition we don’t have the cash and, of course, Friedman is reporting Tatar wants term and there is interest around the league.

Harpers Hair

JFresh (@JFreshHockey) Tweeted:
Here is how the WAR roster builder projects the 2022 NHL standings after two days of free agency. https://t.co/2EdHra8aRN

https://twitter.com/JFreshHockey/status/1421130916974432261?s=20

Ryan

I haven’t looked at the breakdown on WAR for the individual players, but I would imagine the Oilers get faded heavily for goaltending and Keith’s poor metrics.

leadfarmer

Jfresh model is pretty poor
Like he admits Seattle has the best defensive defense and the worst offensive defense
that tends to not work well.

but the Oilers team has some question marks especially in 2nd pair d and goal

OriginalPouzar

The JFresh WAR model has almost zero value to me – when Seth Jones is among the worst D in the league based on a model, the model does not reflect reality.

Elgin R

I really thought that Wright would draft Wallstedt at 20. However, Holland has set the path and the Borg (and other drafted forwards) will be required in the future (say 3-4 years) to come in on ELC (or cheap RFA) contracts to keep this team below the cap.

Off in the distance through the smoke, one can just make out a 3rd line forming. Foegele – McLeod – Kassian may work and I hope that Tippet gives it a chance. All are 6-2 / 200 or larger and are plus skaters. Not much ‘finish’ with this group but all they have to do is not get caved at 5v5. A positive goal share and wearing down the opposing D should be their goal.

The 4th line could then be Shore – Ryan – Archie. All are PK / shutdown types and will need time to get familiar with each other.

Training camp is going to be fun to see who really dedicated themselves this summer and steps up.

Last edited 1 month ago by Elgin R
Woodguy v2.0

*****WARNING SPAM*****

New Because Oilers:

“Duncan Keith played some 1st pair, but mostly 2nd pair on Chicago last year. Here’s a break down of how he did and who he did it with.”

https://becauseoilers.blogspot.com/2021/07/duncan-keith-played-some-1st-pair-but.html

*****END SPAM*****

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Awesome. Great breakdown. I do find it difficult to assess players and their numbers (especially dmen) who played on bad teams.

Here is hoping Keith can turn back the clock to 2010 for 200 games.

Also, A+++ on the article picture. I had a little laugh.

leadfarmer

Keith and Larsson would have been really nice IMO. Le SIgh

Rich M

Great work, thank you for going thru this exercise. Keith will bring value. He’ll benefit from playing with a stronger overall team. Would have been great if Larsson stayed, but that ship has sailed.

pts2pndr

Value possibly but at a high cost both in cap and acquisition.

YKOil

Thanks Woodguy, excellent breakdown.

Will be interesting to see what kind of difference the teams forward depth (with Hyman, Foegele, Ryan) will make to the non-McDavid d-pairings.

We haven’t had three solid lines in so long I am almost unsure of what that looks like anymore! I imagine some of our d-men will be just as shocked by the change as I am.

JimmyV1965

Excellent, excellent post. Just following the numbers, rather than building a narrative and using numbers to support it.

jp

Nice post.

I’d guess that Keith-Ceci/(Bouchard) will get a more McDavid minutes than X-Larsson did last season, in addition to the overall F quality being improved.

misfit

The “non-McDavid” minutes should be a bit more forgiving this year given the depth at forward being better than it’s been since ‘06.

In fact, I’m not so sure we even need to worry as much about splitting up Connor and Leon for the same reason.

There is so much versatility in the forward group that we can really see some unique combinations that might work better than what we’ve already seen up front. Hyman and Puljujarvi play much the same kind of role on their lines that I wouldn’t be so sure we’ll see them both with Connor.

jp

Yeah, agreed there’s a ton more depth and lots of versatility. Lots of combinations that could work, and that should benefit the D vs previous years.

Hopefully we can look back and say that Holland ‘fixed’ the Oilers bottom 6 (finally).

misfit

“Not palying with rookies may help as well”

I wouldn’t be so sure this won’t be the case (ok, Bouchard isn’t technically a rookie, but I think we can all agree he essentially is).

If we break camp with the current group on D, how confident are we that Broberg/Samorukov won’t beat out Russell/Lagesson for a job? These are pretty high end prospects with pro experience and were close to NHL ready last season.

If one of the young LDs make the team, it seems highly unlikely that Tippett plays them with another rookie in Bouchard as a pairing. Also unlikely, though possible, would be for Bouchard to play the top pairing with Nurse. This would leave Kieth and Bouchard as the 2nd pairing.

Redbird62

Victor Hedman played only 20% of his time against elites, less than Keith and fifth among Tampa Bay Lightning. Is he a 3rd pair defenseman based on deployment?

The fact that Duncan Keith was the preferred LD option to play with Patrick Kane (and vice versa) tells me the coach may have made his deployment decisions based on things other than having his top players against the other teams top players (and at least half the time, he has little control over match ups any way).

The fact that Chicago left Zadarov and de Haan unprotected is another piece of evidence about their value to the Chicago team (and subsequently traded Zadarov for a 3rd).

Redbird62

Oh and add in the fact that Zadarov was brought in to be a shut down defender yet Chicago still thought Duncan Keith was more useful on the PK 2:36 per game vs. 1:46) tells me whose skills they valued more. Keith/Murphy were usually against the other teams top PP, and as a unit the team did not fair well. Zadarov’s GA/60 were much lower, but that wasn’t enough by itself that they switched their roles on the PK.

OriginalPouzar

pts2pndr

 Reply to  Rich M

 July 30, 2021 11:11 am

Value possibly but at a high cost both in cap and acquisition.

The cap hit cost is too high, for sure – very unlikely to be value for that cap hit even if he does play well in the 2nd pairing.

The acquisition cost, on the other hand, if he does play well as a 2LD, is fine – Jones and a 3rd rounder for 2-years of a legit 2LD and “leader” – that’s just fine.

Of course, even if the acquisition cost does turn out to be worth it, it still should have cost less given the cap hit.

OriginalPouzar

misfit

 

The “non-McDavid” minutes should be a bit more forgiving this year given the depth at forward being better than it’s been since ‘06.

In fact, I’m not so sure we even need to worry as much about splitting up Connor and Leon for the same reason.

With respect, I disagree with this very much.

Yes, I know, Connor and Leon are very dynamic together but, in my opinion, they need to start each and every game apart and generally be on separate lines.

For one, I do believe they get a “bit stale” after playing together for games on end and they also start to becoming a bit predictable and make more turnovers trying to “keep the chemistry” going and forcing plays.

Also, more importantly, the coach needs the option to put them together. Putting them together here or there for shifts or short periods of time creates an added dynamic. If they are together all the time, then the coach loses the momentum switch of putting them together after a PK or a TV TO or any random shift and, of course, putting them together when a goal is really needed.

If they are together, and the game isn’t going well, there isn’t the option to put them together to get a boost – that is very important.

Randle McMurphy

Wow. Just outstanding as usual. Including the one response to the post, which voiced the exact points I was thinking.

Thank You.

Price/Cost aside. I think Keith was/is a good bet especially with his unique two year term.

ArmchairGM

The Condors will have 17 (give or take) Oilers contracts in Bakersfield, that makes our current 50-man total (41) insanely manageable between now and training camp. I honestly don’t recall an Oilers team being at 41 once through free agency.

Quality > Quantity

MrEd

It’s pretty much dollar-in dollar-out now. I hope Yamamoto has an excellent year this year.

Is Russell’s spot a place that can be upgraded?

I think the Goalies are set.

Elgin R

I am expecting, not hoping, that KY has a decent year. Somewhere between the heater from spring 2020 and the results from the 2021 season.

My observations of KRusty last season were positive – less Stary McStarfish. He can cover both 3LD and 3RD in case of injuries so is very good value at $1.25m to be carried as #7D.

Does Holland want to spend his ‘walking around’ money before the season starts? And if he does, who is available that is a significant upgrade at what cost?

I would stand pat and see if one of Sammy or Broberg can take the job by Jan 2022. If not, then Holland will spend more picks from the dwindling supply to get a LD at the deadline. I hope he does not need to – this team needs every available draft pick as #4 (Kulikov) next year is gone and one of #2 or #3 (Keith) next year is also gone.

OriginalPouzar

If they can get a legit upgrade like Ryan Murray, that would be great but, of course, he’s likely to cost too much to make it work (without moving Kass).

Russell would be great at 4LD as that player is likely to play over half the games as is. 3LD is pushing it a bit but, at the same time, if they are simply going to get a replacement level 4LD, like Stone or something, I’d prefer to keep that spot open and see if Russell/Lagesson/Sammy can make it happen.

For all we know, Sammy is legit (and better than Russell) right now or in-season.

Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR

I’m on board with a show-me deal for Tatar, but what would the lineup look like? Nuge at 3C? It would definitely give Tippett more options.

ArmchairGM

Where are you getting the money for Tatar though?

OriginalPouzar

Friedman on Oilers Now today said he’s looking for term.

As ACGM points out, the money is gone – even if he was willing to do the one-year show me, it would be for $3M plus – there is interest in him from a bunch of teams (per Friedman). Tatar can only really happen if Kass is moved.

PokeCheck

Looks like there’ll be quite the knife fight for the net in Bakersfield.

GordieHoweHatTrick

Seriously. I think something has to give here probably sooner than later. Probably once KH figures out if he is running MK/MS or if he keeps Stalock up. But to have Stalock, Skinner, Konovalov and Rodrigue teed up for the Bake makes no sense.

I would hope Skinner and Konovalov get the most playing time in Bakersfield to start the season.

ArmchairGM

I would think Stalock gets traded this summer.

jp

Sending Rodrigue to the ECHL is easy. Adding an NHL goalie to the mix is definitely problematic.

I’d guess Stalock is lost on waivers (cheap contract), moved for a late pick or loaned to another org if he isn’t backing up in Edmonton.

Last edited 1 month ago by jp
OriginalPouzar

Sending Rodrigue to the ECHL is easy and 100% a fine move. Lots of good NHL tenders spent time in the ECHL.

The plan has to be for Konovalov and Skinner to split the duties in Bakersfield – it can’t really be any other way. One of them likely “pulls ahead” and becomes the leader for NHL call-up and/or a legit NHL full time job in 2022/23.

Stalock/Koskinen is an issue. From accounts, the team does want to keep Stalock around and he will battle at camp. Its unlikely he beats out Mikko but you never know.

Nugent-Bowman wrote today that they will not keep 3 tenders on the roster (again, 100% right move) – will Stalock clear waivers? Maybe but maybe not.

Mikko would clear waivers.

One issue is, whichever tender is in the AHL can’t really play – Skinner/Konovalov need the playing time.

Thing about “not playing” is if they need to call up that 3G due to injury.

jp

Didn’t know it had been reported they particularly wanted Stalock in camp. Makes some sense they’d prefer him to Koskinen (cap hit and Koskinen’s recent play).

Stalock on the team and Koskinen waived would even save ~350k, and every bit counts at this point.

Agree though the youngsters need to play. I’d expect whichever of Koskinen/Stalock don’t make the roster (and if they pass through waivers) would be loaned somewhere. Stalock shouldn’t be difficult to unload in any case if Koskinen remains with the Oilers.

Bulging Twine

“The Condors will have 17 (give or take) Oilers contracts in Bakersfield, that makes our current 50-man total (41) insanely manageable between now and training camp. I honestly don’t recall an Oilers team being at 41 once through free agency.”

Having good AHL players like Cracknell and Malone on AHL only deals helps. Don’t have to use a ’50-man’ contract spot to fill AHL depth.

buck yoakam

Is it possible that koskinen has one of those “contract year” seasons and tears it up?…

JimmyV1965

Guys playing well in contract years really isn’t a thing. See Ryan Nugent Hopkins.

Elgin R

Zack Kassian: ‘Hold my non-alcoholic beer ……’

DevilsLettuce

Adam Larsson?

ArmchairGM

It’s possible, but not necessary. From the time that Smith returned and the end of April, Koskinen posted a .929 sv%, good for 5th in the league. His last 4 games sewered his ‘post-Feb 8th’ sv% all the way down to .910, but that was still above median for the league:

http://www.nhl.com/stats/goalies?reportType=game&dateFrom=2021-02-07&dateTo=2021-05-15&gameType=2&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,5&sort=savePct&page=0&pageSize=50

It’s not really fair to hold the first 12 games against him, no goalie in the league can handle that kind of workload. Removing those 12 gives him a 2 season record of 26-19-3 with a 2.76 GAA and a .916 sv%. That’s decent.

I’m not expecting him to tear the cover off the ball due to being a contract year, but if he can give us the same level of play from the past 2 seasons I’ll be happy.

Last edited 1 month ago by ArmchairGM
DBO

Find a way to add Ryan Murray and move out Koskinen for Korpisalo and I’m happy. Maybe adding in decent pick it prospect for Columbus to retain salary but take full hit of Koskinen.

Korpisalo hasn’t had better numbers, but change of scenery and all that.

chrisco stu

I thought the same thing yesterday, I’ve heard lots about Korpisalo as a good target. So I wondered about trading koskinen plus a first for him.

Then I looked at the numbers on cap friendly and saw that all down the line Koskinen is the better goalie not accounting for things like team trust, big moments, momentum or anything else that’s impossible to quantify. Disregarding contracts to enable other additions at forward or defence during free agency, I think the right move is to hold onto Koskinen as a backup. if he rebounds, sweet. If he doesn’t outplay Stalock or one of the prospects, bury him and wait until his contact is done.

I think it’s better to wait and if need be make a move at the deadline for a better target.

ArmchairGM

Korpisalo is worse than Koskinen and its not particularly close. And I’m not sure a change of scenery would help – CBJ is a better much defensively than the Oilers. For instance, over the past 2 years Koskinen has faced 32.34 shots per 60 and 8.50 high danger shots, whereas Korpisalo has only faced 29.28 SA/60 and 7.24 HDSA/60.

Oh, and taking a quick look at Evolving Hockey’s GSAx shows just how bad Korpisalo has been: his -15.51 is one of the worst marks in the league (52 of 59), while Koskinen’s -6.84 is 38th – and would be much better if he wasn’t run into the ground at the start of this past season.

https://evolving-hockey.com/stats/goalie_standard/?_inputs_&std_gl_str=%225v5%22&std_gl_adj=%22No%20Adjustment%22&std_gl_fa=%221000%22&std_gl_info=%22No%22&std_gl_range=%22Seasons%22&std_gl_table=%22On-Ice%22&std_gl_span=%22Regular%22&std_gl_group=%22All%22&std_gl_dft_yr=%22All%22&std_gl_players=null&std_gl_team=%22All%22&std_gl_season=%5B%2220202021%22%2C%2220192020%22%5D&std_gl_age1=%2217%22&std_gl_age2=%2250%22

Darth Tu

Ha. We came to do exactly the same thing.

Darth Tu

I said it yesterday, I’ll say it again. No to Korpisalo. He’s had 2 years in his career where he was > 0.900 save percentage wise. Merzlikins is who you’d want from Columbus, doubtful they’d move him. I think another year of Koskinen is preferable to Korpisalo.

https://thewincolumn.ca/2021/06/20/evaluating-2021-nhl-goaltender-performances-with-goals-saved-above-expected/

I get it’s not perfect, but one thing I look for when trying to compare goalies across teams (different defences, yada yada) is goals saved above expectation (GSAx).

Koskinen was bad last year = -10.37 GSAx.

Korpisalo was horrific = -18.72 GSAx

Only Hart and Elliot in Philly were worse overall in that stat metric last year.

If you don’t like that, save percentage for Koskinen was 0.899 in 26 games this year, pretty abysmal. Korpisalo’s was 0.894% in 33 – even worse.

Anyhoo, it’s a hard no on Korpisalo for me.

godot10

Koskinen on the roster means the Oilers can afford Nurse next year. Anything the OIlers do with Koskinen cannot spend the $4.5 million (really $3 million when one accounts for a replacement backup goaltender) in cap space he frees up next year to sign Nurse, Puljujarvi, and Yamamoto.

jp

But they’re going to have to spend Koskinen’s salary on a goalie sometime between now and puck drop 2022 regardless.

Something else on the roster will have to give between now and then whether they repurpose Koskinen’s salary this season or not.

pts2pndr

Hope Keith retires! Ducks and leaves room.😉

Hairbag

Bit of a premature comment, considering that Keith could (I think will) come in and light it up – full value for his contract – makes me laugh how people have written him off without him ever having played a game yet. Same people wrote Smith off last year too……can’t wait to bring this point back up in about 6mos. A lot of people on here are like old farmers – not happy unless their mad – always need something to bitch about. Lol

Realize you are saying this in jest but a lot of people on here are serious……

Drai by Shooting

Just Nurse and Puljujarvi. Yams will be done this summer with Foegele

OriginalPouzar

Even if Keith does light it up this season and is full value for his contract him retiring after this season would still be a massive massive win for the Oilers – that’s $9.5MM in cap space for 2022/23.

That’s Jeff Skinner right there.

jp

I’d rather have Keith 😉