I spoke too soon. Yesterday’s post surrounded the 50-man list being stalled at 41, and 21 forwards this year (26 one year ago). Edmonton signed Brendan Perlini yesterday, he’s a big winger (6.03, 211) who was viewed by scouts as a power forward with speed and a plus shot on his draft day.
Perlini has been inconsistent since turning pro, but has averaged 16 goals per 82 games in the NHL. Perlini spent 21 games in the Swiss-A league last season scoring 9-7-16 (0.76 pts-game). Linus Omark led the league in scoring, 22-39-61 in 49 games. My guess is he pushes for an NHL job but is sent to Bakersfield, and he could get a recall during the year. I believe his competition will be Tyler Benson and Devin Shore (fourth-line winger) with his rugged style and speed his big advantage, his play without the puck his weakness. It should be an interesting battle.
THE ATHLETIC!
I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here’s the latest!
- New Jonathan Willis: A resurgent Zack Kassian could be an important part of the Oilers’ scoring
- Lowetide: Oilers sign Darnell Nurse to a massive 8-year contract extension
- Lowetide: How many goals will Jesse Puljujarvi score for the Oilers next season?
- Lowetide: 8 unsigned free agents who could help the Oilers
- DNB: Rating the Oilers’ offseason
- Lowetide: What are Oilers’ ideal defence pairings for 2021-22?
- Lowetide: The future may come early for three Oilers prospect defencemen
- DNB: What I’m hearing about the Oilers offseason, 4.0
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers 2021-22 depth chart
- Lowetide: Warren Foegele acquisition possible key to improving the Oilers third line
- DNB: Ethan Bear on being traded, his time with the Oilers
- DNB: Ethan Bear out, Cody Ceci in, Tyson Barrie stays
- DNB: ‘Ultimate competitor’ Zach Hyman signs with Oilers
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, summer 2021
- DNB: Oilers draft day notebook
- DNB: Oilers come under the microscope after passing on Jesper Wallstedt
- Jonathan Willis: Zach Hyman, by the numbers
- Lowetide: 5 players outside the NHL who could help the Oilers
- Lowetide: Why Oilers defenceman Evan Bouchard is poised to exceed expectations
50-MAN LIST (42)
This sets up a fantastic battle for the final five spots at forward, hopefully the Oilers add more to the group. Here’s how I see the battle royale going during training camp. The top 9 forwards as above, and then:
- Josh Archibald will return as a utility forward, he fills the same role Jimmy Roberts filled for those old Habs teams in the 1970’s (except he doesn’t play defense). He could land on any line, will PK like a demon, and be out there late in games when the team is up by one goal. I could see him getting another contract during the year or shortly after the season.
- Ryan McLeod played 10 games at the end of the year and looked fast and good, but he needs to post some offense. Edmonton doesn’t have 10 miles of centers so odds favour him making the grade. His speed is such a weapon on what has been a slow boat fourth line.
- Devin Shore has penalty killing on his side but his five on five results were so poor he’s vulnerable. Shore can play center and that increases his value to the coach, and I expect he’ll begin the season in Edmonton.
- Tyler Benson is out of options and can help the fourth line with his passing and offensive creativity. He isn’t guaranteed a job, but will get a look in training camp and Edmonton hasn’t played him enough in the NHL to know what he is going to be as a mature player. I expect he’ll make the club.
- Kyle Turris is in a tough spot and fighting for his NHL career right now, all kinds of reports that he’s stayed in Edmonton this summer to train. If training was the issue, that’s great, but in my opinion the problem is he’s far better on the wing and the Oilers didn’t have enough skill to give him a strong set of linemates. We’ll see.
- Cooper Marody was qualified, that must mean the organization has plans for him. Marody is the most offensively talented forward coming in from Bakersfield and could help populate a talented fourth line who are familiar with each other (Benson-McLeod-Marody). He is on the wrong side of the bubble but has real talent and could surprise.
- Brendan Perlini is the new man, and has good speed and size on his resume. I think he starts in the minors.
- Dylan Holloway is likely headed to Bakersfield, but could be back soon. Like Shore, he can play wing or center, and like Perlini his size/speed combination will be compelling.
POSSIBLE 2021-22 OILERS ROSTER
Edmonton can get Klefbom on the roster by waiving Zack Kassian OR Mikko Koskinen. Management could also do it by sending Evan Bouchard plus Ryan McLeod to the minors (a paper transaction). That would mean signing Kailer Yamamoto after the season starts, though. Chances are the club simply puts Klefbom on LTIR.
Well, this Perlini’s all right I guess but why settle for a middling Swiss league player – the Oiler should go hard after that Omark guy
Perlinis #7-9 FWD evg potential is needed & worth the risk.
16/17 we had
Talbot a top 5 open shot save% goalie
Larsson #1 1St comp def dman when traded for
Russell/Sekera #2 Def pair in league that yr.
Benning
Nurse playing like top 60 def dman in playoffs like he showed at WJC & WHC.
Now we have bottom 40 Barrie, Klefbom.
Bottom 40 Nurse who can be top 60 if he does not abandon.
Can be a OFF influence if he continues to just scores his 4th option goals coming from the point while not abandoning def.
Bottom 15 Keith.
Russell top 15 def dman last 6 yrs.
Ceci who is top 10 in a def role or bottom 40 when chasing offence.
After reading your posts about top 15 or bottom 40 players, it would make more sense if you also listed the 5v5 minutes of that player.
A. Open shot reduction Def sys coach
B. Top 10 open shot (not shot into goalie) Save% goalie
C. 4+ top 60 open shot density reduction def dmen
D. Strong top 125 Fwd depth team
E. Strong top 9 evg scoring
F. Best PKGA Fwds & Dmen
A, B, C, F leads to the needed .50 to 2.00 in 4 wins in a final 4 series.
D & E are shutdown in final 4 series.
with the bottom portion of top 9 often being the difference in equally deep def teams series.
OP:
You are saying nurse abandoning high density shot area to allow high volume of undefended open shots to his defensive side that yeilds greater than 3 evg per 60 is good.
that is 1 evg every gm based his EVTOI.
Even though you need to only allow 2G (.50 GAA) to 8G (2.00 GAA) in final 4 series 4 wins. He averages 1.00 EGA every gm.
Meaning we need all other EVTOI & PK to only yeild 0.00 to 1.00 GAA in 4 of the games.
Talk about impossible ask for the rest of the team.
Champ teams shut down elite forwards every year.
These are yr to yr facts!
when you do not exclude closed shots we a shot density map range of 2% to 27%.
Count the number of open shots in a gm.
You exclude close shots ( shot into goal) we see the Shot density map numbers of 50 to 90% not 2 to 27%.
That is why Abandoning Their def side to get bottom 6 evp/60 to allow high expected GA (= expected baseline save% for goalies to perform around), has not got it done for decades.
you seem to thinking Nurse giving up 50-90% success shots to chase below the expected average 2-27% by x,y location shot density (due to facing deep def Dmen teams) is going win a cup.
That is not logical science.
What I am saying is that I cannot agree with any model that provides that Darnell Nurse is not a massively important part of the Oilers and that he does not make the team much better.
I cannot agree with any model that provides that replacing Darnell Nurse with Matt Benning makes the team better.
Victor Hedman was 2.65 GA/60 this season, i cannot agree with a model that provides he doesn’t make the Lightning better.
When he’s not on the ice with McDavid over the past 3 season Nurse has an EV GA/60 of 2.58, which is a bit better than average for the league.
With McDavid, Nurse’s GA/60 is 3.69. But their GF/60 together is 4.55, so they score 55.2% of the goals when together.
Everyone seems to get scored on when playing with McDavid (Matt Benning has a 3.50 EV GA/60 with McDavid over the same years, for instance).
Without Nurse, McDavid has been on the ice for 3.55 GF/60 and 3.48 GA/60 (50.2%). So Nurse seems to help McDavid score an extra 1.0 GF/60, without affecting GA much.
Without McDavid on the ice the Oilers have scored 2.33 GF/60 and allowed 2.58 GA/60 (47.4%) with Nurse, vs 1.78 GF/60 and 2.46 GA/60 (42.0%) without either of Nurse.
Nurse seems to help the team score an extra 0.5 GF/60, without much effect on GA/60, even when McDavid is off the ice.
Many of the things Nurse is doing are good.
Sorry this is a few days late, but given that Berglund is number four on our RHD depth chart, I thought it was worth a bit of a closer look at his SHL stats. Year – Team – Berglund+/- – Club +/- – PPG – Total TOI
20/21 Linköping -14 club -34 0.25 19:37 – 2:27 PP – 0:51 PK
19/20 Skellefteå +4 club +27 0.38 18:20
18/19 Skellefteå +1 club +18 0.21 19:02
17/18 Skellefteå +12 club +27 0.30 17:03
16/17 Skellefteå +2 club +6 0.19 9:30
Steady D, played in the SHL his draft and draft +1 years, then full time draft +2. His TOI went up last year on a much weaker team, but how do we compare him to other SHLers coming to the NHL? I think most of us saw Joel Persson struggle and go home a couple years ago. He was 25 at the time and Berglund is 24 this year. Here are the same stats for Persson:
20/21 Växjö +12 club +41 0.69 19:47 – 3:06 PP – 0:04 PK
19/20 Oilers -1 club +2 0.15 15:18
18/19 Växjö +6 club +3 0.62 19:11
17/18 Växjö +17 club +65 0.67 17:06
Persson didn’t make the SHL until he was 23, but he played a big role in two Växjö league championships since then. Now, Berglund is bigger, but I’m a little concerned about the reviews of his skating. This exercise has given me a little pause about the idea of Berglund playing NHL games this year, but I guess there’s only one way to find out. An established RHD might be a good idea.
Thank you for this work.
If I’m not mistaken (and I may be), Berglund’s skating is known to be better than Persson’s – the main issue with Berglund’s skating is his first step isn’t quick – I could be wrong on this.
Persson showed an issue with the ability to retrieve pucks quick enough and make a positive play with the puck.
Lets not forget, Persson came pretty much out of nowhere and sky-rocketed quickly as an offensive producer, mainly on the PP (I believe).
Berglund has legit draft pedgiree, a long history of development and plus 2-way play in the SHL and, frankly, a game with much less chaos.
I’m clearly being Oiler-positive-biased right now but I think Berglund’s size, skating and overall skill-set provide a more reasonable chance at the NHL level.
You are right about the RD depth chart – as of now, we are looking at Russell on his off-side in case of an injury.
Thank you for this work.
If I’m not mistaken (and I may be), Berglund’s skating is known to be better than Persson’s – the main issue with Berglund’s skating is his first step isn’t quick – I could be wrong on this.
Persson showed an issue with the ability to retrieve pucks quick enough and make a positive play with the puck.
Lets not forget, Persson came pretty much out of nowhere and sky-rocketed quickly as an offensive producer, mainly on the PP (I believe).
Berglund has legit draft pedgiree, a long history of development and plus 2-way play in the SHL and, frankly, a game with much less chaos.
I’m clearly being Oiler-positive-biased right now but I think Berglund’s size, skating and overall skill-set provide a more reasonable chance at the NHL level.
You are right about the RD depth chart – as of now, we are looking at Russell on his off-side in case of an injury – although, I would hope that, if Berglund is acclimating well in North America and playing well in the Bake, he’d get the first shot.
Persson is 5ft 11 inches approx 170 lbs which is small for an NHL D. Berglund is 6ft 2 inches and over 200 lbs which is NHL size. If he skates well enough for the Swedish hockey league on the big ice the only question is gap control. It will be fun to see how he does.
The games that Persson played the opposition targeted his corner and pounded the piss out of him the NHL is a very unforgiving league.
Leavins gave us an insight into his twisted logic when he said you have to pay the price to sign guys like Nurse because the price of acquiring guys like Bear is high.
Head spinning, like that scene in the Exorcist.
I immediately questioned my own support of that contract 🙂
I think he was saying that the price of acquiring pieces you need by trade is high – and used the Bear trade as an example.
07/08 on HF boards:
I argued the true Flin Flon (hockey) tough was penetrating the area in front of the net. ( my Homeplate observation age 4-5 52yrs ago)
I also argued their was a relationship between penetration and SH%.
Ie: Each player has their own expected career SH%.
During that time I would manual calculate WOWY.
You can see a players Symbiosis with types of players.
thou sometimes what should work based on history does not with an individual.
Perlini even SH% history is clear:
stepan 721:12; 10.81%
Rieder 403:49; 10.00%
Fisher 217:52; 0%
Panik 149:09; 9.52%
Ehr 121:16; 0%
Vrbata 120:12; 9.09%
Neilson 109:41; 0%
Fillpulla 94:34; 9.69%
Holland 88:13; 20.00%
Hrore 74:48; 0%
Kruger 73:58; 0%
Abdelkader 55:54 0%
Dvorak 508:51; 15.22%
Doan 367:39; 14.29%
Strome 323:51; 20.00%
Keller 268:04; 8.33%
Debrincit 174:22; 18.75%
Domi 100:54; 22.22%
Saad 78:58; 16.67%
Anisimov 61:55; 14.29%
Toews 61:06; 66.67%
One of the best open shot (high density) targeting forwards in the gm when he is feed the puck by good passers.
Give him minutes with one of MCD, Drai, or Nug please.
He needs 55%+ FO off ZS and low bench change volume but with pocession.
20+ even goals
I argue that this is Flim Flam Fuckery?
I would posit that, if the model/theory, provides the conclusion that Brendan Perlini, straight off a “meh” offensive season in the Swiss league, is a perfect compliment, right now, to McDavid or Drai, that the model is flawed.
Similar to the model that concludes that the likes of roaming Darnell Nurse have material less value that Matt Benning.
I like the Perlini bet – there is zero risk and some upside – I’ll stop short of pencilling him in to the top 6 in October.
He had a 13.3 shooting percentage ARI/CHI combined, and he’s 25. He’s a bet. This is his fourth NHL team. He’s kind of on the Patrick Maroon career plan. I don’t know Ricki’s thinking, but if your going to scream from the rooftops on a guy who looks like a journeyman, Ricki’s choice of target is good if nothing else.
That’s fair but I believe Rikki was telling us that Perlini is the best option right now for 1W based off his shooting percentage theory and related data.
High risk for the price paid but we wait!
I remember Ricki pushing Couturier over RNH as the correct 1st overall pick due to goal scoring in junior. He was right about that. Lets hope he’s right about Perlini.
If Holloway pushes up, who can play any position, who is the one going out?
I believe it will be Yama. I hope he gets his scoring back so they will at least get value for him.
Forward position, no help in nets.
Trade Yamo to Seattle before this time next year while he still has value.
Why do you think he’ll never score again? I don’t get it.
The Holland hobbit experiment era is over Hollaway, Foegele,Shore Hyman and perlini are all 6 foot plus 200 plus. We got beat by Crawford who was so out of game shape that we figured it was a one off because of the strange season. The following year we get manhandled again by half a Jet team with the same common theme.
While Yamamoto is small he plays like the guys Holland acquired
He just doesn’t score enough to be a top 6 forward especially playing with Leon. Quick name how many teams Yamo would be a top 6 on, then pass along the phone numbers of the above GM’s to Holland.
1) He doesn’t necessarily have to be a top 6 forward – he’s has discernible 3RW skills if the organization’s depth chart permits.
2) Why won’t you provide any room for the 22 year old player to continue to develop like, well, pretty much all players do? He has shown one 3-month stretch of elite production – its clearly in him and that is being totally discounted because of a tough sophomore season – not to mention his scoring pedigree in junior.
The worst whining of a contract on this blog was Chiasson at 2,1 million who managed to outscore Yamo in less games last year. Yamo better find another gear by game 20 or sooner because there’s some hungry wolves ready to take his job.
Yamamoto scored my goals and had more points than Chiasson at 5 on 5 last season – Chiasson is far far beneath Yamamoto offensively, even in Yamamoto’s awful season that, in your opinion, seems to define his career going forwards.
Chiasson’s only offensive help is on the PP – at 5 on 5, his only skill is to help play a non-event game so that his line doesn’t get caved by more than a bit.
Its interesting that you are so done with a 22 year old developing forward due to lack of production and then cite another forward who was considerably inferior.
I opine that the roster can handle a forward or two that is under 6’1 205 – in particular if that hobbit has some clear NHL level skills.
We’re in the nest Reja. It’s ok. We’re here for you ?
I think it will be Kassian, but more because they need his $$ for other things (goalie) than for his play.
I presume that Yamamoto is going to be a pretty big value deal over the term of his next contract (likely 2 years).
I think, if he’s slotted in to 3RW, and doesn’t have the fan expectation to produce as a 2RW, he will have an exceptional season as a high skill 3rd liners, great forechecker and improving PK guy.
This could happen with a Hyman or Foegele move to the right side (which could be in conjunction with Holloway impressing) or a Kassian rejuvenation, for example.
If Kailer is slotted in to 2RW, I presume we’ll see a more productive player than we did in 2021 but, of course, not quite as productive as we during the 3-month heater when he produced among the best in the world.
I am not sure why some are seemingly giving up completely on a player that hasn’t even turned 23 and had a tough time as a sophomore in the NHL.
I suspect is size-bias.
One of the best players ever was listed at a generous 5 foot 9 and a sturdy 168 pounds.
Ken Holland?
I agree with you. Let’s not forget Yamamoto’s overall body of work, which is still quite strong even with a substandard second half of last season.
Even without crooked boxcars, I like that Yamamoto continues to win battles and cause issues on the forecheck. Like Jesse, I suspect Yamamoto shows well in the “unofficial” assist department.
A guy like Kassian IMO is (finally) very vulnerable.
I haven’t given up on Yamamoto and I was suspect of him early for a number of reasons including size! I believe he is a bonafide part of a
championship roster but it is imperative to assure he plays with larger line mates. His puck handling and on ice awareness make him an asset. He is a very goof forechecker and has the requisite quickness to be very effective with the right players.
Fair enough and, just to be clear, I wasn’t implying that you were giving up on Yamamoto – my comments were in respect of Reja’s opinion on the player.
He’s 23 to start the year he has 20 career goals he’s not some raw talent that needs years to develop he is what he is.
I disagree hole-heatedly that “he is what he is” – there is significant development runway left with Yamamoto – my goodness.
He’s going to be 23 is his ceiling Sheary who takes less of a beating to get his 20 or does he have some Fluery in him who had legs that were like tree trunks and feared no one.
Perlini can score. I like this bet.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FAaIQ8MIO6k
Same. No surprise if he makes the team out of camp this year.
Yeah he’s got stick skills and a shot.
Looks like he plays more RW than LW too, FWIW.
Is there room on the bottom 6th for a potential 4th line player who can’t defend and or produce offensively?
This seems to be Benson’s position to lose, assuming the organization isn’t biased towards older players (Tippett/Shore) or against Chiarelli-era players (potentially Holland/Perlini). I’m not saying Holland will have a preference. I’m also not not saying Tippett won’t/doesn’t have his.
Both Shore and Perlini have NHL seasons of double digit goals and 30 points on their resumes.
Ideally Benson beats them out, but characterizing his competition as players ‘who can’t defend and or produce offensively’ is being a bit unfair to them IMO.
Schremp has one assist on his record. But it was a beauty?
You need five wingers and or centres. Those bottom positions are usefull when there are injuries but also typically a 4th liner will play a few decent games then fade. You put in someone who has been sitting who comes in with energy and something to prove. Then you rinse and repeat.
Remember when Tampa traded first round picks for Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow – known to be 3rd line utility players?
Maybe Foegele is never more than a “3rd line utility player” but, at the same time, it seems like that is his absolute floor and his ceiling is much much higher. He “analytics” in Carolina are fantastic – sure, they were a deep team and most player’s had nice analytics, but hasn’t much of the fanbase been looking for “analytically based transactions”?
It seems Foegele is a massive upgrade to the Oilers 3rd line from recent years, has the clear ability to play up the lineup a bit (and, perhaps even become a “legit 2nd liner”, can play both sides of the ice, can play that playoff style or hard/heavy hockey on the forecheck that helps wear teams down, is just entering his prime years and signed for his prime years, etc.
Oilers fans have been asking for the GM to (a) acquire players based on good analytics, (b) acquire players that will help the Oilers 3rd line at least saw off but not outscore, (c) acquire big/fast players with some skill that can play that playoff style hockey, (d) acquire players with upside and that aren’t reclamation projects or late 20s Europeans with little upside, etc., (e) acquire the “next Coleman or next Hyman” before they pop and get paid.
Doesn’t Foegele check so many of those boxes?
Yes, Bear was a big price to pay but, at the same time, Bear hasn’t proven anything more than Foegele has at this time. He hasn’t proven to be more than a “utility middle d-man” – he’s not a legit proven top 4 but he could get there.
Me, you and many for years have been saying don’t sigh the overpriced UFA version of a player, find the next.
Finally it seems they have in Foegele instead of Coleman. So good!
Maybe Ceci for a while. But I think unless he knocks it out of the park someone will take his job. Like he Czech D Kubicek they are courting.
I agree with the list of those battling for roster spots and its a fantastic list – better than the likes of Nygard, Haas, etc., as late 20s distant bells, being part of the battle.
A few things that come to mind:
1) with respect to Archie and a new contract during the year – yes, this very well could happen but, I was thinking about this at the gym today when the podcast I was listening to brought up the cap for 2022/23. To me, this is where some cap savings can be found. Guys like Archie that are in the $1.5M range could/should be replaced in the lineup with guys like Lavoie being ready for the NHL or Holloway being ready for a full-time material role in the NHL. This is the type of switch (i.e Archie to Lavoie) that will save $750K on the cap (give or take) and allow a player like Lavoie to start on the 3rd line or middle six and continue to develop in the NHL.
2) Yes, i see Benson battling the likes of Perlini and Shore for a bottom 6 left wing spot. I think the coach will default to Shore as the “leader” in the battle given PK and the ability to play center but Benson should have a real shot and, hopefully, he gets some at bats during camp and exhibition with some actual legit NHL player and NHL skill. His ability to play in the top 6 or middle six is not a closed book.
At the end of the day, if Benson can’t beat out shore for a roster or lineup spot, then maybe Benson just isn’t an NHL player (or Tip is defaulting to “responsible veteran”).
As for Perlini, this is a great pick-up. Of course, zero risk and this player is still very young, I believe 24, and has produced in the NHL as a young player – He’s big, fast and skilled. There is definite upside here if he has “matured” at all. Zero risk and the potential to be a legit NHL option.
3) I’ve said over the last while, I think Turris will be a legit candidate for a roster/lineup spot when camp opens. Of course, he has to be much better than last year in order to win a battle but I can’t discount completely the effect of pre-season Covid on this player and, for all veterans that struggled, the effect of Covid-protocols in general.
Turris very well may just be done – that is a legit outcome. Of course, on the other end, maybe he just never got his NHL game shape back after dealing with Covid and struggling in a new org early. Similar to Neal. We just don’t know but we’ll find out soon enough.
I’m on board w every point but Turris. Wish him the best, hope he pulls a Smith, but I’m convinced he’s done.
He may be done but I am not convinced – we will find out in the fall fairly quickly I think.
Speaking of goaltending, when thinking about Koskinen vs. Stalock as the back-up or 1B this coming season, one thing that pops in to my head is “style of play”.
I think most would agree that there is risk with either of these goalies being the 1B to an older Mike Smith in a full 82 game season with travel.
At the same time, both Koskinen and Stalock as legit NHL tenders and both have shown to be able to give good to plus tending for stretches of time. Koskinen seems to provide solid tending when not overworked and given practice time and games off. Stalock ran with the starting role late in 2019/20 and played well for a material portion of time including in the bubble.
While it may not be true, lets just say that the two goalies are “equal” as far as stopping pucks, a goalie’s primary role.
The one thing that Stalcok has is plus puck-handling. From accounts he is quite good, not a Smith’s level but quite good at the same time.
Does that give Stalock a “leg up”? I mean, the Oilers clearly “play better” in front of Smith – its borne out in the numbers, both shot attempts against as well as wins. Smith’s puck handling really does make a difference, a material positive difference when he’s not aggressive and just making smart plays like he did most of last year.
Would it not be helpful to the skaters in front to be going between Smith and Stalock, who also plays and moves the puck well, then between Smith and MIkko who is average at best at moving the puck and plays a “different style”?
Either way, I don’t think three goalies on the roster is a good idea so, whichever loses out, is likely assigned to the AHL – I’m not sure how that would work as neither should be taking any starts away from Konovalov and Skinner who should be getting all the work.
I’m not sure if Gretz/Holland can work out a loan to another AHL team in that scenario.
If I could trade Koski I would go with Stalock as backup in a second. If he’s healthy now.
Similar style to Smith and a proven back up.
If they need more help, time for the two nearly ready G to show what they have and step up.
If it’s a serious long term thing go get a goalie. If you need to.
Yes goalering is everything, the problem is you can’t predict it. Nobody saw coming the mid season additions that won cups or went deep coming.
Its become very clear that Koskinen is not tradeable without the Oilers paying a big price. Yes, he may be tradeable at the deadline for a non-playoff team willing to eat the end of his contract to get a deal done but probably not before.
At this point, I assume both Koskinen and Stalock are in the org and at camp September.
It will be an interesting story to see who “wins the day” and starts on the roster and what happens with the 3G.
Very nice to see the 2 year contract for Skinner. Couldn’t get much better from an org’s perspective than both years being 2-way with the NHL salary in each year being league minimum – I anticipate Skinner will play NHL games for the Oilers during the term of this contract, perhaps in 2021/22.
Skinner will be waiver exempt for this coming season but will be subject to waivers in 2022/23 – his contract being a 2-way deal does not have any effect on waiver exemption status, it simply goes to compensation when in the AHL.
Will be really interesting to see which one of Konovalov or Skinner pull ahead during the course of this coming season.
Principal Skinner gets a 2-year, 2-way contract extension:
https://www.nhl.com/oilers/news/release-oilers-sign-skinner-to-two-year-extension/c-325927728
Side note: with Bear’s departure, perhaps Skinner gets to don the #74 that he wore in junior.
Steamed hams!
Skinner!
My hope is that the new and improved offence increases the time that the Oil play in their opponents end of the rink. The new hires are proficient with forechecking and pressuring the other team and this should (hopefully) have a domino effect in regards to the defense.
If the team can spend 10% more time in the opponents end of the rink that is 10% less time spent in their own end relieving pressure on the defense. Offense play is controlled and Defensive play is chaos, and less chaos is better.
Smith is very good at forwarding the play and he has more outlets now. Nurse, Barrie, Keith and Bouchard are good with the puck. I have no idea about Ceci, not having watched him much, but hopefully he can cover the penalty kill along with Russel and Nurse.
Play out Koskinen’s contract and use his salary to bring in a better #1 for next year letting Smith assume more of a backup role. I’m not averse to taking risk and if I was the GM I’d be tempted to sign Henrik Lundqvist and Tampa Bay Lightning him (LTIR) on the chance he could play by the playoffs.
I’ve been watching some Ceci highlights. Its hard to find much useful on YouTube, other than compilations of his goals and his most egregious mistakes. Also I’m just a guy, not a scout.
He’s certainly got more offensive instincts than Larsson did. But his puck moving gaffes are absolute comedy. I think that’s what led Leafs fans to think he’s a bad puck mover. He’s not. It’s just that when he makes mistakes they are often so bad it becomes funny.
There’s one clip of ceci walking the line and then turning to pass it to Morgan Rielly. There’s almost no pressure, but Ceci turns and, with confident authority, whips the puck about 10 ft behind Reilly. Hilarious.
Another with Ottawa where he has 2 or 3 options to pass to near his own blue line, but instead he looks up ice and passes the puck straight to an opponent about 12 ft in front of him. He passed it to him like they were teammates. The guy even receives the pass like he can’t believe Ceci just did that.
I found it potentially reassuring that most of the worst mistakes I saw we’re pre-pittsburgh. I hope he really works out in Edmonton and we’re able to judge him based on the overall body if his work. If we just focus on individual mistakes Ceci could get chewed up by Olier fans.
The Oilers cap issues are over blown IMO. Kenny definitely isn’t efficient but it’s not hard to see how space can be made for everybody. Even in the best case scenario that Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, Bouchard, Broberg and Holloway become impact players (unlikely they all get there)
This year the roster is effectively set.
Next year Koskinen, Archibald, Turris and Russell coming of the books (8.9M). That leaves plenty of space to sign Puljujarvi to even a 5M deal (which means he has a HUGE year, I highly doubt he gets anymore than a 2M raise).
23-24 Keith, Lucic, Sekera, Smith, Ryan come off the books (12.5M). Giving plenty of space to pay Bouchard whatever is worth. Yamamoto probably gets a raise this year (if deserving). Holloway and Broberg are still on ELCs.
24-25 Foegele, Barrie and Kassian come off the books (10.5M). But we will see who is worth resigning at this point. Plenty of space for Holloway and Broberg if needed.
And none of this is taking into account using prospects and picks to dump cap. Don’t expect the Oilers to be keeping their 1st round pick the next couple years. Most likely Kassian gets sent with a 1st to clear some space at some point. Ceci, Barrie and Foegele could be made redundant at some point allowing them to be moved for space (and maybe a decent pick in return depending on performance). Maybe Puljujarvi and Yamamoto never establish themselves as top6 wingers and never get the big raise. Or Holloway makes one of them redundant and either one gets shipped out.
Obviously the elephant in the room is goaltending. For now it looks like they are taking it year by year. Either they get lucky on a cheap one or someone is getting sent out to make space for one. This is by far Kenny’s biggest gamble.
Kenny has made some very questionable moves but he has also giving himself many different paths. It really hinges on Hyman, Nuge and Nurse living up to their contracts.
Yes, $8.9 million is coming off the books, but we will need $3.65 million for Darnell’s raise. Highly doubt we can afford $5 million for Jesse, especially if we need to go out and sign a goaltender.
Yeah Oilers are essentially out of cap space already for next year. If Keith and Smith under perform relative to expectations, the Oilers will be in a terrible spot going into next season.
Yup.
Agreed except Kassian. If you have to add an asset to move one of 2-3 players in the league that can skate, have skill(Kassian has skill) and is mean, to me you suck as a GM. At the deadline you should be looking for a first if Goodrow pulled one. Goodrow doesn’t have Kassian’s range or rage.
The issue is, Kassian hasn’t shown the skill or any “meaness” (unless he was protecting himself) in quite a while. It wasn’t just the 2021 season but it was the back-end of the 2019/20 season and in the play-in as well.
Of course, “peak Kassian”, with only 2-years left on his deal, can likely be moved clean, maybe even for an asset, but we haven’t seen “peak Kassian” for a while.
If we do see 2019 calendar year Kass, in particular October-December 2019 Kass, that is a different story – I am hopeful.
I would hope that our days of sending players away at the TD for picks is in the past.
Wow, this forward group is shaping up, love it. Now about that defense:
First, Holland has the last laugh on me. My choice on draft day was Zegras. I argued that the new GM was not fully aware of all the defense prospects the team had in the pipeline. Suddenly, Larson takes off, Klefbom is out, no more Bear, no more Jones. I thought the d positions were locked down – but how quickly things can change.
It is a truth that Edmonton is not a favorite player destination. So when Tyson Barrie wants to be here he gets the attention of the GM. He also feels like hes getting in tight to becoming a core player. Could his skills and points be replicated by someone else? Maybe. But remember Patrick Maroon? His 27 goals and grinding game was going to be so easy to replace. Oiler missed him and Maroon goes on to 3 Stanleys. Point being in regards to Barrie “a bird in the hand…”
Similar with Ceci. When he called the Oilers and asked to come join the team, that must have been very refreshing to Holland. And likely pushed him to the front of the line.
Dom Luszczyszyn on LT show this week “Chicago should have paid Edmonton for Keiths contract, the fact that Edmonton paid Chicago TWO assets was MIND BOGGLING”
This was too funny.
I believe Keith will be fire in the playoffs. But 82 games may prove tiring for the veteran, hopefully he can split some time with someone else and that will allow him to stay at 100%
I think the defense will be alright, and its still a work in progress. Opposing teams and NHL analysts will be picking on the D and picking on the goalies, and while some make fair points, this Oilers roster will be having a lot of teams looking over their shoulders.
I would like to see the Oilers add another center for the battle for spots in the bottom six. Maybe McLeod is here to stay but he only played 10 games and is far from a sure thing.
If guys like Bozak, Cizikas, Anisimov, or Zajac are sitting around in September without a contract lets see some one year, one million dollar offers made.
Similarly the Oilers can use some kind of replacement level defenceman. They only have 5 defenceman with any kind of experience. Bouchard will be fine I imagine, but Lagesson could be hit or miss and no one in the minors is known to be able to provide replacement level play at the NHL level. Get some plug with 100+ NHL games onto the roster that will be able to give you at least third pairing cover in the event of injuries.
Always liked Anisimov, if he has any gas left in the tank I think he could add to the bottom six. Though he only played 19 games last season for the Sens and spent most of the time on the taxi squad. Also, Oilers with a poor recent history with players with the initials “AA”. But might be worth a PTO?
I was hoping to see Riley Nash pop up on that kind of contract. Had him zeroed in as a decent low cost bet on additional C competition.
Outside last year where he looked like he was just buried in defensive zone playing with likely garbage in Columbus he seems worth a burials contract. Think it was a good free RHC get for jets.
McLeod needs to be more engaged and more involved in the play. He was far too timid in his 10 games. This needs to change or he will have a hard time being successful at the NHL level.
Agreed – McLeod needs to learn to engage physically and in battle – I think his ability to play 3C in the NHL depends on it and, if he can’t do it, he’ll be a 4C/PK guys.
No, he doesn’t need to become a bruiser but, from what I’ve seen, he avoids contact and battle at pretty much all costs and that simply doesn’t work.
He is a big guy and, hopefully, as he gets stronger and “turns in to a man”, he’ll be able to trust his body and not avoid contact and maybe even initiate at times.
The issue is, this has been a problem for McLeod dating back to his junior days and it didn’t improve in two full AHL seasons (his pop in offence last year was due to his line being so dominant, they just had the puck the entire time – there was no “need” to engage physically, they always had the puck).
I’m liking the rooster changes. Been adding players with size, speed, tenacity and goal scoring. Had fair number of puck handlers but not enough scorers. D may not be quite as good on paper but if jell as a unit, and hopefully better 2-way from some of added forwards, could be a surprise, especially if Sammy is able to make the team at camp. I am okay with goalies for this year, not going to win cup anyways, give holland until next year to improve it and hopefully see just what he has in his goalie prospects.
I think they need a bigger cock.
we could all use one
took me a minute
I wouldnt crow about it too much 🙂
Interesting also that Holland has punted all the Euro replacement-level players. As per the current roster from Cap Friendly, there are 17 x Canucks, 4 x Euros and 3 x Americans (Ryan listed here but really he played for the Golden Bears so that makes him more of an Edmontonian than anyone else on the roster – unless Benson makes the team). Bigger, faster and use to tough hockey – could be a great year.
Woah, why throw in the defeatist comment! Would you have looked at Montreal last summer and picked them as a Stanley Cup finalist?
I feel for Koskinen by the way, he has taken a beating in regards to trade talk and receives zero votes of confidence. I don’t think he has that unshakable, Ill prove you b*stards wrong type attitude.
i may be too much of realist, but the point its unrealistic to be able to make all the necessary changes in one year. i also feel for kosk. i think he gets a bad rap, he is a serviceable netkeeper. that being said the position needs to get younger and upgraded.
Mikko shit the bed last year was barely 500 in the Bettman era without Smith saving the the day 2 years in a row this franchise would be in big trouble. Put yourself in Tippett’s are Holland’s shoes if the Oilers don’t make the playoffs either year they would of been fired. The team gave up on Mikko last year he let in way to many soft goals at bad times. Holland had the perfect opportunity to dump Mikko at least half on the Blackhawks. Mikko is in contract a year if the hockey Gods shine on him and he plays lights out I do think a team will sign him at backup money I just don’t think it’ll be the Oilers.
The HairPiece 1: Defence.
Having had to leave the Philippines to attend a funeral I am now “enjoying” a 10 day Covid quarantine and catching up on a few LoweTide posts. Yesterday’s discussion of the Nurse contract included contributions from our good friend HH (which included a reference to Hughes’ struggles this last season) which may have given new readers the impression he knows what he is talking about. H has a high opinion of himself – but based on the random selection of comments below a Hair more humility might be appropriate.
“Worth noting, the Oilers don’t have even one D who would be considered a top pairing D on a good team.”
“(Is) Nurse as good as Giordano…I don’t think so.”
“Nate Schmidt … is a better defenseman than Nurse” / “He’s a legit #1D who plays and wins against elites. With Hughes, he will be part of an elite top pairing (note: but probably not much longer.)”
“Hughes is the best defenseman in the Canadian Division.”
Bad Hair Days.
I look forward to seeing Vancouver pay 25 million a year to keep Elias and Quinn.
Frankly I have had my fill of HH and will skip over comment threads were he is active. Obviously a knowledgeable guy but his constant anti Oiler bias is tiring. I do not understand what motivates some one to behave like that. If that is what makes you happy I feel sorry for you.
If everyone quits arguing with him on extended threads and just ignores his posts, then maybe (grabs rosary) he goes away.
The short periods of time when this has occurred HH’s post quality went up…but some just can’t help themselves are revert back to arguing with him, or worse, troll HH.
The collective effort it would take for everyone who visits this blog to actively ignore him and not engage in conversation is pretty much impossible.
The amount of effort it would take for HH to actually contribute to the conversation in a positive way is minimal.
Maybe one day HH will mature or seek help from a medical expert. One can only dream..
Old saying “ To not condemn is to condone “
The “obviously a knowledgeable guy” part seems off. He is wrong too often for knowledgeable to be in the top ten ways I’d describe him. He is right sometimes right though, but if you’re wrong a lot and right a lot, you might just be loud.
HH lives in a fake place as a fake guy making fake comments. It’s all just fakery.
You’re saying it’s a toupee?
Comb-over.
I believe Halloway is blocked for this year unless he really knocks it out of the park.
That’s the hope.
I don’t think there is enough talent on the roster to block Dylan if he is playing the way he can. Very likely to be with the big club before Christmas. Sooner if injuries happen.
The idea is to win and with that thinking Holloway will earn a spot on the big club out of training cap. His nickname is golden retriever Hyman, Foegele and Hollaway are all puck hounds add in a fresh Kassian and we go from being soft to one of the tougher teams up front. Watch our possession numbers shoot up this year like Sutter told Rickibear possession is nine-tenths of the law.
like Sutter told Rickibear possession is nine-tenths of the law.
You spelled pocession wrong 😉
The Oilers finally have an established-legit group of top-9 NHL players. Using the roster list LT provided above, there appear to be 7 players for sure to be slotted in on the top 3 lines. Would be nice to see Ryan at 4C. WRT Kassian, who knows what player shows up?
Many of the players can play multiple positions and Tippet now has so many options his head might explode. Anyways, Holloway may be able to push one of these guys out of the top 9 by the new year. And being realistic, there are most certainly going to be injuries that will have to be covered.
Other than size, speed, contract, hands, solid without the puck, I don’t know why we even signed the kid…..His competition will be Benson on LW…Perlini will be in the Bake until he learns to play without the puck.
Holloway should be given every opportunity at camp but, of course, he will be 20 years old with zero professional games on his resume.
I think he starts his pro career with a very mature game to go with his mature physical stature so, for sure, he’s get a shot.
The great thing is, if he blows the doors off and earns that spot, that’s great, however, if he show that he could use a bit of development time, getting used to the pro game and bigger/stronger players, etc., the org does not have to rush him to the NHL – they have the top 9 depth to give the give the development path that is best suited for him (and for the team).
Lets not forget, Kenny prefer to call-players up when they are ready and never send them down again, than to either (a) start them up and then need to assign them down or (b) yo-yo them.
I think Kenny will be sure he’s “NHL ready” before he plays in the NHL, he doesn’t want him up and down, etc.
OP …..how foolish to suggest that I, or most on this board, would suggest in any way that Holland might “gift ” Holloway a roster position……he either makes the team or he doesn’t…..my opinion stated was either he or Benson make the team….
I was responding to the long thread in general, not just to the content of your post.
I never “suggested” that anyone “suggested” he’d be gifted a roster spot.
It’s okay to have this type of player on an NHL contract, as the 5th or 6th LW on a league minimum deal. It is not okay to have this player as the 1st, 2nd or 3rd LW.
This is a win. And who knows, he has potted 14 goals in one season, perhaps he recaptures that, but he is very low risk.
This is exactly what winger depth looks like.
So great to finally see after years like having JF Jacques or Ty Rattie as a 1st line winger.
A couple of Twitter gems
@The_Camper_Dave
“Do the Atlanta Flames of Calgary actually think they’ll be better than the Edmonton Oilers of Edmonton next season?”
Petroleros
@Bdiddy18
#oilers Twitter will blame the #elks offence on Holland
I think Katz should change the name back to the original name of Alberta Oilers.
Interesting article on Codi Ceci over at The Hockey Writers,
https://thehockeywriters.com/oilers-cody-ceci-get-to-know/
“Ceci was a member of Canada’s team that won gold at the 2016 IIHF World Championship in Russia. He had one goal and five assists, zero penalty minutes, and a plus-eight rating in 10 games. His Canadian teammates included Oilers superstar Connor McDavid.”
“Ceci was one of Pittsburgh’s most effective defenders in scoring chances allowed, expected goals, and actual goals produced, and was the Penguins’ most-used player on the penalty-kill, logging an average of 2:32 of short-handed ice time per game. He was second on the team with a plus-18 rating, just behind Kris Letang’s plus-19.”
Shhhh…. He’s a bum remember. Will be bought out in two years.
Really hoping Oilers bought ‘low’ (got value) on a prime of career player who’s finally figured out the game. That’s appears to be Ken’s take based on comments.
We are due for a win. If this deal pans out it could easily end up being the best value deal of this off season. Fingers crossed and will be cheering for his success.
That’s why I am not too concerned about Ceci, some players take a lot longer to “get it”. See: Darnell Nurse
He’s in that range 26-30 where a lot of D figure it out. He played well last year in a most important year to rejuvenate his career and get sleeping easier money. He could be a side-bar player who’s game really gets elevated playing with talent.
I think Ceci will be fine. It is Barrie back and Bear out that has me very perplexed. Unless Ethan wanted a change of scenery it makes no sense.
3-4 x 7 is the rumour.
While I expect Bear to thrive, doesn’t sound like he wanted out.
Deangelo needs to be sheltered heavily. Gonna be heavy hauling for Pesce and Bear
The rumor for what? The next Bear deal?
He’s a year out from being an RFA, why would the Oilers or Canes be/have been discussing an extension this early?
Isn’t that kind of the GM’s job – to know what will happen a couple of seasons down the road?
In fact, I believe I mentioned several times over the summer that thinking Bear’s cap hit was something in his favour was unlikely to be more than a one year situation.
Isn’t that kind of the GM’s job – to know what will happen a couple of seasons down the road?
In fact, I believe I mentioned several times over the summer that thinking Bear’s cap hit was something in his favour was unlikely to be more than a one year situation.
EDIT: I am surprised that in all of the Ceci signing posts I haven’t seen anybody mention the fact that Holland said that Ceci’s agent phoned him the day before free agency opened. A slip of the tongue, I’m sure. 😉
I see that I was so fond of what I wrote that it duplicated itself. 😉
Not sure what happened.
Yes, certainly it’s the GMs job to look forward.
Though I’m still unclear where the rumor originated/circulated. Oilers? Bear’s camp? Carolina?
You seem to be suggesting that’s what it would have taken to keep Bear an Oiler going forward…
It just seems really early to even hope to have a clear picture of that. He’s 3 years out from UFA I believe. He’s got a year to run on his current RFA deal.
His play/role this season will have a huge impact on his next deal. If he’d played 1st pair with Nurse then certainly it would bump him up to the $4M long term range. But if he ends up on the 3rd pair in Carolina he’s likely not due a raise.
Those unknowns aside, do RFAs ever sign a year before their deals safe up if they’re not nearing UFA? I can’t think of any examples, though there probably are some.
It just seems unlikely to me there would be serious discussions at this stage about a long-term extension with either the Oilers or the Canes.
I agree though that Bear was only going to be a ‘value contract’ for this season if he remained an Oiler.
I did notice that on Ceci too. It’s clear Holland chose Ceci over Bear (well, Ceci plus the asset for Bear).
And yeah, if there’s any truth to the vague rumor above, then Ceci appears on a cheaper, shorter, deal than Bear would be 12 months from now.
I think it is complicated.
From where I was watching it was pretty clear that Nurse, McDavid & Draisaitl all wanted Barrie back because they like the way he plays the game – defensive hiccups notwithstanding. That isn’t a reason for the GM to sign somebody but I wouldn’t be surprised if it didn’t play into it.
So until Larsson decided he preferred the rain to the cold I always figured – and said more often than I like to repeat myself – that I figured it would be Barrie, Larsson & Bouchard with Bear cashed in for forward help because Bear was the logical guy to move given trade value – which Barrie had none of.
I also said that I figured Bear would be in the $4 M range if he spent the season with Nurse which was the most likely configuration so the argument forwarded by many that Bear was a value contract was a very short term saving since I felt that Barrie would come back for $4.5.
I have no idea where the rumour of what Bear wants comes from but I think GM’s check in with agents all the time concerning their clients as they approach a window where they can be signed. To me it would be natural for Holland to have spoken to Bear’s agent this summer in preparation for re-shaping his roster.
When Larsson walked I believe my immediate reaction here on the board was to indicate that Bear was gone for sure since a rookie and two smaller dmen on the right side was never going to work.
I don’t get to be right about these things very often but I believe I nailed this one months ago other than Larsson wanting to be soggy rather than cold. 😉
Yes, you were certainly right on Bear, and the scenario generally. No argument with any of that.
I just feel like 7 years and $3-4M is awfully specific for a situation with so many unknowns and no pressure points related to the deal expiring or pending UFA. Specific enough to raise flags about the validity IMO.
Yeah, I agree. No idea where that came from.
Getting to know Ceci as a player will be a fun ride. Didn’t really watch the Send when they sucked and in their one good year still did not watch much. Toronto – never watch unless playing the Oilers. Did not watch a single Penguin’s game last year.
Review some data from Natural Stat Trick shows a young player that played OK on a crappy team, some time with Babcock the narscisist (and then Keefe) where his most common 5v5 partner was Rielly indicating he was placed high in the lineup and finally a good year as a 2nd paring guy on a decent team.
Ceci will be playing 2nd pairing on a decent Oilers team so the placement seems right and I expect him to exceed his good play of last year.
I actually like Ceci over Larsson. I think he’s a better all round player. Not a fan of Larsson offensively. That said, I think Bear is the best of the three and if he was willing to sign long term for a low price this off-season, that loss stings.
Bear has talent and heart
To me he’s an NHL tweener
Smaller players have to compensate with something. Top end skill like Makar. Top end skating like Rafalski. Top end defensive awareness like say Stralman in prime or Weeger. Top end jam like Gallagher ( I can’t think of a smaller D that fits that bill).
Bear sits in the middle of all that, and he’ll sit in the middle in his career. Never top, never awful. A useful player and good team guy. But he’ll get paid more than his replacement does.
I will always go for a bigger faster version, so Ceci suits me, for now.