2021-22 Game Four: Oilers at Coyotes

There are five teams in this year’s NHL who are 3-0 at this time, and the list isn’t close to what anyone would have guessed a week ago. Edmonton, St. Louis, Minnesota, Buffalo and Florida are quite possibly the oddest collection of 3-0 starts this century.

No matter, the key for these teams is to keep on winning hockey games. Running the streak to five or more can give a club significant clearance for those low points that inevitably arrive. Even the 1976-77 Montreal Canadiens lost two of three (vs. the Blues and Bruins) in the middle of that season.

Edmonton should win tonight, tomorrow night less certain. Heading into the first break of the season, 5-0-0 would be an attention getter.

THE ATHLETIC!

• New Lowetide: The Oilers finally have an effective third line — so how should they deploy it?
• Jonathan Willis: Success or failure for the Oilers could depend on their Duncan Keith-Cody Ceci tandem
• DNB: Evan Bouchard subscriber Q&A
• Lowetide: First impressions of 2021-22 Oilers — is this strong start sustainable?
• Lowetide: Which Oilers AHL players are most likely to be called up in 2021-22?
• DNB: The Battle of Alberta gets heated
• Lowetide: Evan Bouchard is going to be the Oilers’ secret weapon in 2021-22 — and he’s already showing why
• DNB: How the Oilers’ new-look second line wears down opponents and makes a difference.
• Lowetide: Amazing opening night facts on players, past and present, from Oilers opening night rosters
• DNB: New Oilers forward Zach Hyman may have a higher pay grade, but his style isn’t changing
• Jonathan Willis: Oilers final roster cuts
• Lowetide: How Ken Holland is increasing the Oilers’ talent pool, and why fans are nervous about it
• Lowetide: When will the Edmonton Oilers fully embrace analytics?
• Jonathan Willis: How the 2021-22 Oilers mirror their coach’s best teams from the past
• Lowetide: What might Oilers do if Kailer Yamamoto’s goal scoring slump continues?

WHAT TO EXPECT IN OCTOBER

• At home to: VCR, CAL, ANA (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 3-0-0)
• On the road to: ARI, VEG (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• At home to: PHI (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• On the road to: VCR (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• Overall expected result: 5-2-0, 10 points in seven games
• Actual results: 3-0-0, six points in three games

My prediction still seems reasonable, it’s unlikely the team sweeps October. The NHL is a league that strives for competitive play, right down to referees calling the score. Can Edmonton go 5-2-0? Yes. 6-1-0? Unlikely but yes. 7-0? The dice have no memory, the Flyers kicked the Bruins to the curb last night. Chances are none of the 3-0 teams get to 7-0, but Edmonton would be one of the favourites in that group.

AFTER FIVE GAMES

• Oilers in October 2015: 1-4-0, goal differential -5
• Oilers in October 2016: 4-1-0, goal differential +4
• Oilers in October 2017: 1-4-0, goal differential -8
• Oilers in October 2018: 3-2-0, goal differential -3
• Oilers in October 2019: 5-0-0, goal differential +8
• Oilers in Month 1 2021: 2-3-0, goal differential -4

The first Tippett Oilers team turned the trick and with a handsome +8 goal differential to boot. Edmonton’s current goal differential after three wins (+2) is lower than you’d expect due to a couple of EN goals. Can the Oilers go 5-0?

MIKE SMITH

The Mike Smith injury sounds like something got tweaked and rest will be enough, so the timing of it (just two games in the next week) is good. It’s uncertain to me that there’s a major drop off from Smith to Mikko Koskinen, and one suspects the Finn will ably perform his duties. Stuart Skinner looks ready, several auditions this year, and as many as 10 games, would seem to be a natural progression.

BILL JAMES 10 GAMES

I’ve been watching plenty of baseball lately, and things trickle back to me from a time when that wonderful game was my top obsession. One thing that hit me yesterday was an article James wrote about the 1984 Tigers, who began the season 35-5, which is beyond wicked.

James looked at fast starts, and I believe he used 10 games into the season as the marker, and found a correlation between winning more than five games of the first 10 and strong seasons. I can’t tell you chapter and verse, do own the books but they’re in the crawl space somewhere and haven’t been accessed since 1998.

So, a baseball season is 162 games, and an NHL season 82 games. Does a fast start in the first five indicate success? Oilers two best seasons above, 2016-17 and 2019-20, saw the club make the postseason. Edmonton did it last year too, but you’ll recall goaltending issues impacted the first month of the year.

For the record, I have Edmonton finishing 45-27-10, 100 points and in second place Pacific division. When I said second place, the Golden Knights were healthy, so maybe the Oilers win the division. Edmonton was two points away from winning it in 2016-17. The last time Edmonton won the division was 1986-87, the last of six division crowns in a row. What a story that would be for fans! That 1986-87 team was the best hockey team I’ve ever seen.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

It’s a special day on the Lowdown, as we welcome hockey insider Chris Johnston to the show. He’s @ReporterChris on twitter and is a famous reporter who gets the real stories. It’s a tough job, Johnston is the best in a very competitive business. We’ll talk Mike Smith injury, how Edmonton might solve the goalie issue later in the year, and why a fast start can make later slumps survivable. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!