2021-22 Game Six: Flyers at Oilers

The hockey history involving the Philadelphia Flyers and Edmonton Oilers began in the 1980 playoffs. Philly swept the Oilers, who took two games to OT, the final one double overtime before Ken Linseman sent the Oilers to their summer. Behn Wilson scored a big goal in that game.

In 1985, Edmonton beat the Flyers 4-1 in the Stanley Cup Final, with Wayne Gretzky and Paul Coffey scoring 11 points in the five games, and Grant Fuhr (.902) outdueling Pelle Lindbergh (.885) and Bob Froese (.845).

The best Oilers team of my lifetime, and the best SCF involving the Oilers in my lifetime, was 1987. Seven games, 4-3 Edmonton, I didn’t breathe until Glenn Anderson’s goal in G7. Fuhr (.917) was brilliant, Ron Hextall (.903) was out of his mind and damn near robbed Edmonton of Stanley. Gretzky, Coffey, Kurri, Messier, Lowe, Huddy, Gregg, Nilsson, MacTavish, Pouzar, Ruotsalinen, Smith, Hunter, this was the pinnacle.

In life, true greatness arrives only by overcoming giant obstacles. Lore arrives only after difficult and memorable battles. Hextall, Mark Howe, Brian Propp, Brad McCrimmon, Pelle Eklund, Murray Craven, Doug Crossman, Brad Marsh, Peter Zezel, Scott Mellanby.

Of all my cherished memories of the 1980’s Oilers, at the very top is the 1987 team. A big reason for it was the formidable Flyers, champions in their own right, victors without a title.

Respect the Flyers. Always.

THE ATHLETIC!

• New Jonathan Willis: Evan Bouchard’s evolution, in context
• Lowetide: Zach Hyman’s buzzsaw style makes him an instant Oilers fan favourite
• DNB: Comparing the Oilers’ 5-0-0 start this season to their 5-0-0 start in 2019-20
• Lowetide: Oilers prospect Philip Broberg showing his potential
• Lowetide: Should Jesse Puljujarvi drive his own line for the Oilers in 2021-22?
• New DNB: He’s a one-shot scorer’: Oilers prospect Carter Savoie thriving at DU
• Lowetide: The Oilers finally have an effective third line — so how should they deploy it?
• Jonathan Willis: Success or failure for the Oilers could depend on their Duncan Keith-Cody Ceci tandem
• DNB: Evan Bouchard subscriber Q&A
• Lowetide: First impressions of 2021-22 Oilers — is this strong start sustainable?
• Lowetide: Which Oilers AHL players are most likely to be called up in 2021-22?
• DNB: The Battle of Alberta gets heated
• Lowetide: Evan Bouchard is going to be the Oilers’ secret weapon in 2021-22 — and he’s already showing why
• DNB: How the Oilers’ new-look second line wears down opponents and makes a difference.
• Lowetide: Amazing opening night facts on players, past and present, from Oilers opening night rosters
• DNB: New Oilers forward Zach Hyman may have a higher pay grade, but his style isn’t changing
• Jonathan Willis: Oilers final roster cuts
• Lowetide: How Ken Holland is increasing the Oilers’ talent pool, and why fans are nervous about it
• Lowetide: When will the Edmonton Oilers fully embrace analytics?
• Jonathan Willis: How the 2021-22 Oilers mirror their coach’s best teams from the past
• Lowetide: What might Oilers do if Kailer Yamamoto’s goal scoring slump continues?

WHAT TO EXPECT IN OCTOBER

• At home to: VCR, CAL, ANA (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 3-0-0)
• On the road to: ARI, VEG (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
• At home to: PHI (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• On the road to: VCR (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• Overall expected result: 5-2-0, 10 points in seven games
• Actual results: 5-0-0, 10 points in five games

The Flyers play in the Metro division, eight teams who have all done well enough in the season’s early days to post more points than games played. By winning percentage, Philadelphia is sixth in the Metro and by goal differential fourth in the division. Flyers are 12-7 five on five goals (Edmonton 11-10) and 5-4 special teams (9-2 Edmonton). In all disciplines, Philly is 18-12 (+6) and Edmonton is 23-13 (+10). The Flyers will score tonight, based on their first four games. They’ll also take penalties, 16 minutes a night so far this year.

At the end of training camp and preseason, we spent a little time reviewing the priorities for the season. Edmonton needed three outscoring lines and a fourth one that didn’t give up too much. All of this at five on five. Well, a 5-0-0 record obscures a lot of things, but the five on five numbers are on the good side of the ledger. The expected goals, something we’ll get into today, are also solid.

OILERS POSSIBLE LINEUP TONIGHT, EXPECTED GOALS PCT FIVE ON FIVE

• Zack Hyman [53.2]-Connor McDavid [52.5]-Jesse Puljujarvi [53.9]
• Nuge [53.0]-Leon Draisaitl [50.6]-Kailer Yamamoto [50.2]
• Warren Foegele [57.7]-Derek Ryan [59.8]-Zack Kassian [55.0]
• Brendan Perlini [41.5]-Devin Shore [45.0]-Kyle Turris [36.5]
• Tyler Benson [54.2]-Ryan McLeod [21.8]-Colton Sceviour [61.9]

Expected goals is a newer innovation that uses ‘sequences’ to award specific positive contributions to chances, and then gives those chances a certain weight or quality (ala Puck IQ) to reward the truly majestic. You can read about it here. Edmonton’s first five games give the team a very good look, especially among the top nine forwards. Look at the Finn! Now the defense.

• Darnell Nurse [54.4]-Evan Bouchard [65.1]
• Duncan Keith [56.1]-Cody Ceci [55.1]
• Slater Koekkoek [45.0]-Tyson Barrie [40.9]
• Kris Russell [45.4]

These are Natural Stat Trick expected goals, and it shows the top-four as listed (and as we’ll see tonight) in a positive light. That isn’t the same as saying this is a Stanley Cup defense, but the top two pairs have been on the good side of events through five games.

Notable items are Tyson Barrie’s early struggles, and his move down the depth chart. I’d suggest he will improve his number as the days go down, the third pairing is going to be the reason Edmonton makes a trade for a defenseman at the deadline (barring injury).

One area I wanted to mention surrounds Kris Russell. Although the veteran is criticized heavily, his five on five goals-against 60 is often the best on the team. Here are his numbers through the years:

• 2016-17: 1.68 (Best)
• 2017-18: 2.67 (Fourth among regulars)
• 2018-19: 2.30 (Second among regulars)
• 2019-20: 1.62 (Best)
• 2020-21: 1.83 (Best)
• 2021-22: 2.60 (Fourth among regulars)

Duncan Keith and Tyson Barrie are both over 3.00 on the current Oilers, but Russell’s competition (Slater Koekkoek) for that third pairing left-side job is running at 1.99-60 goals against five on five. We’re looking at extremely small samples, and I believe Russell will get back into the lineup, but that’s a stat to watch. If Koekkoek, who was a team worst 3.66 GA-60 five on five a year ago, can sustain a strong number it could force Russell to the sidelines when men like Markus Niemelainen and Dmitri Samorukov earn recall.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN 1260, we have a big show with great guests and some major issues to discuss. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal will get the ball rolling at 10:20, we’ll drill down on the Oilers-Flyers rivalry over the years and tonight’s game. At 10:40, Tab Bamford from Line Drive Radio will help us sort through the last 24 hours of Chicago Blackhawks controversy. At 11, Joe Osborne from OddsShark will explain the World Series and I’ll ask if the Toronto Maple Leafs are a good investment in the coming days. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!