The Edmonton Oilers got healthy in some important areas last night, with Kailer Yamamoto scoring a lovely goal and the fourth line delivering a big moment in the third period. The star of the night was Leon Draisaitl, who scored 2-2-4 and was a factor every shift. For the Oilers, first place has been reclaimed in the Pacific Division and early November looks a lot like October. That’s a good thing.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Did Oilers general manager Ken Holland win the offseason?
- New DNB: The Duncan Keith-Cody Ceci pair have helped to overcome a notable loss
- New Jonathan Willis: Seven Oilers surprises so far in 2021-22
- Lowetide: Will Xavier Bourgault be the best Oilers’ QMJHL pick this century?
- Lowetide: What Evan Bouchard’s move up the depth chart means for the Oilers’ defensive pairings
- Lowetide: How hot streaks, shuffles and slumps will determine the fate of the Oilers’ second line in 2021-22
- Jonathan Willis: Evan Bouchard’s evolution, in context
- Lowetide: Zach Hyman’s buzzsaw style makes him an instant Oilers fan favourite
- DNB: Comparing the Oilers’ 5-0-0 start this season to their 5-0-0 start in 2019-20
- Lowetide: Oilers prospect Philip Broberg showing his potential
- Lowetide: Should Jesse Puljujarvi drive his own line for the Oilers in 2021-22?
- New DNB: He’s a one-shot scorer’: Oilers prospect Carter Savoie thriving at DU
- Lowetide: The Oilers finally have an effective third line — so how should they deploy it?
- Jonathan Willis: Success or failure for the Oilers could depend on their Duncan Keith-Cody Ceci tandem
- DNB: Evan Bouchard subscriber Q&A
WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER
- At home to: SEA, NAS, NYR (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- On the road to: DET, BOS, BUF, STL, WPG (Expected 3-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: WPG, CHI (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: DAL, ARI, VEG (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 8-5-0, 16 points in 13 games
- Actual November results: 1-0-0, two points in one game
- Oilers in 2021-22: 7-1-0, 14 points in eight games
I have Nashville as a win and the Rangers game, with Kevin Lowe ceremony, as a loss. I could be wrong, but the NYR have been good when I’ve seen them and have some strong indicators. Edmonton has some things too, including a positive differential (17-16) and a ghastly shot differential (47.2), both at five on five. Miles to go, despite the terrific won-loss total.
GOALTENDING
Mikko Koskinen had another good night, stopping 27 of 29, .931 on the evening with eight of nine stops on the high-danger chances. That’s a lot of high danger by the way. Koskinen has a .933 save percentage for the season and is building a foundation for a career year in his walk season. Imagine Oilers fans online if Ken Holland signs him long term!
DEFENSE
Duncan Keith-Cody Ceci played 13:24, going 3-7 shots and 2-0 goals. Keith scored a goal, had two takeaways and one giveaway and made some nice passes. Ceci had a takeaway and played a sound defensive game. Tippett playing them more than the Nurse-Bouchard pairing is indicative of a tough night for the top pair, but one hopes this isn’t a trend.
Darnell Nurse-Evan Bouchard played 12:52, going 5-9 shots and 1-0 goals. Nurse was on the ice with Barrie on the first Oilers goal of the game. Nurse had three hits, three shots and played the Jaden Schwartz goal poorly. He’s a veteran and needs to place Schwartz on his ass. This is the second goal of its type recently allowed with Nurse puck watching (the previous one just beating the buzzer last week). Bouchard was also in photo, he was also passive on the play. Bouchard also had two giveaways for a tough night on the top pair (reflected in the ice-time total).
Slater Koekkoek-Tyson Barrie played 12:33, going 4-4 shots and 1-1 goals. Barrie had an assist, passed well and seems to be settling in for his season. There’s going to be chaos, but there were times in the first month of the season where the confusion was too much. Koekkoek took a penalty, had three hits and two blocks. I have no idea what Koekkoek was doing on the Soucy goal, but that’s not defense.
LINES
Zach Hyman-Connor McDavid-Jesse Puljujarvi played 9:52 going 4-3 shots and no goals. Trio were also 4-3 HDSC and I’m noticing some nice chem between the two wingers. Puljujarvi passed from a prime scoring position to McDavid who had no real look, and the young Finn hit the post a few times recently. I wonder if his confidence is at a low point, that can happen with young players. Hyman and McDavid had assists, for me 97 was electric as always but things weren’t rhyming on the evening. I expect he’ll be pushing again on Wednesday, JP needs to shoot when he gets those slot chances. He set up Hyman point blank, unfortunate not to score there. Hyman’s pass to Leon was high high skill, ditto Nuge’s pass to Hyman.
Nuge-Leon Draisaitl-Kailer Yamamoto played 9:36, going 3-3 shots and 2-0 goals. The line is 4-0 at five on five for the season, that’s a nice run through eight games. Nuge picked up another assist and had a takeaway, he appears headed for Tommy Herr boxcars. Draisaitl was incredible, just Paul Bunyan out there all night long. Five shots, but my favourite play was a nifty pass to Yamamoto for his goal. Talk about throwing a man a life line. Yamamoto drew a penalty and disrupted Kraken often, his goal was gorgeous and he’s on his way. If he picks up a couple more in the next five games we’ll all be talking about a possible 20-goal season.
Warren Foegele-Derek Ryan-Zack Kassian played 8:04, going 1-1 shots and no goals. The line was scored on, but not as a complete unit. It was Foegele-Ryan-Turris who were on for the Schwartz goal. I like this line, but it’s 3-6 five on five goals after eight games. The rest of the roster is 14-10 in the discipline.
Tyler Benson-Devin Shore-Kyle Turris were 6:19 ice time, 3-6 shots and 1-1 goals. That’s high event for the fourth line. I thought Benson blocked the shot and should have had the second assist but maybe it was Shore. Either way, great goal. Benson had a shot on goal and another dangerous giveaway. Shore had an assist and two blocks, Turris scored a fine goal and had two takeaways. I liked his game. He had two HDSC’s.
Draisaitl, Yamamoto, Kassian and Puljujarvi drew penalties, McDavid should have drawn four. Shame on the NHL.
FIVE ON FIVE OUTSCORING
Using centers for proxy, here are the on-ice goal differentials:
- McDavid 8-6, +2
- Drai/Nuge 5-2, +3
- Ryan 3-6, -3
- Shore/McLeod, 1-2, -1
17-16, third line (I like it) is the bleeder. Six GA in eight games is poor. Now, the defense shows more of the puzzle, and I think we’re without an obvious culprit among the regular pairings:
- Keith-Ceci: 6-4, +2
- Barrie-Bouchard: 1-0, +1
- Nurse-Bouchard: 3-3, even
- Koekkoek-Barrie: 2-2, even
- Koekkoek-Bouchard: 1-1, even
- Russell-Barrie: 1-1, even
- Nurse-Barrie: 3-4, minus 1
- Nurse-Ceci: 0-1, minus 1
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A busy morning on the Lowdown, we get started at 10, TSN1260. The first segment will be a complete look at the Oilers after eight games, with emphasis on what needs to be tweaked after a 7-1-0 start. Tyler Yaremchuk from Oilers Nation pops in at 10:40 with his special brand of opinions and memes, and we’ll be talking NBA and NFL in hour two. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
Give it a rest Hrudey you had 6 PP and 2 for the Preds and the Goof Hrudey wants another call.
phlegms get another loser point
How does Garrett and Hrudey manage to last this long on T.V
That is a good question!!!!! Those two are brutal.
Neither have no Shame they’ll both drop to their knees on command for teams with a total of 1 cup in almost a 100 years. I grew up with Dick Irvin who was honest and neutral not like these 2 parasites Hrudey and Garrett.
In fairness, it’s a home broadcast. Not really intended to be “neutral”.
Where is our homer broadcasters putting together tape of McDavid getting mauled all game and embarrassing the Refs. How does a Flame’s team get 6PP. We get 3PP a game that’s it because our PP is to good and the Refs must be told subtly to not influence the game by giving us 6 PP.
One would expect much more neutrality on national broadcasts (which Irvin did) as opposed to the regional broadcasts that Garrett and Hrudey do (Hrudey also does some national stuff, of course), no?.
i actually like Cassie when she’s not doing Flames games. I’m sure she’ll do fine with American national exposure and she’s not going to dis the Oilers when’s she’s sitting next to Gretzky making 4 times the green she made in Cowtown.
It’s nice to see the Flames making the Predators work so hard. I have a feeling Leon is going to feast on the Preds tomorrow.
Braves with the powerhouse pitching of Smoltz Glavine and Maddox win only 1 World Series and here they are with a unknown pitching staff ready to cash in.
They ran smack into one of the greatest dynasties in history and a team that didn’t give a damn who they were facing.
Saros is in net for the Preds tonight so the Oilers should get the benefit of the back-up, on the 2nd night of back to backs, again, tomorrow.
Flames get the Rangers on Saturday after they play in Edmonton on Friday – this stuff evens up, for the most part.
Of note, Ingram has only played one game this year 2.02 GAA and a .943 save percentage.
So we get the big sieve rittich
I think it may be Connor Ingram – BSD was put on Covid Protocol a few weeks ago, I think he’s still deactivated.
Sutter Hockey is stifling can the Flames play this style for 82 games plus.
20 SOG in the 1st period for the Flames…looks pretty high flying to me.
I don’t mind this style of play in the playoffs but for 82 games it’s so mythological. I can easily see a second round match-up with the Flames.
and Detroit shot from anywhere in 2006. What did that get them. Fuck off someplace else.
Goaltending is voodoo make the save at the right time and your a hero for life. I bet Jim Craig never has to pay a bill for drinks or food at any establishment in Massachusetts
I tend to be process oriented, so no complaints until we hit the 25 game mark. After all, we could be paying someone like Marner over 11 mil to Not score goals over his last 20 or so.
Don’t feed the troll. He only goes away if you ignore him.
– so we got this goalie that is over .930 since the starter went down. I can’t remember his history.
– when make the move to get a goalie to take us to the next level, he will cost a lot and that guy will hopefully put up .930 with 80% quality starts and GA below 2.30 We will then finally be able to say “we solved the goalie crisis”.
Nice to see Yamamoto get back on track last night. But I wondered, why is the kid still wearing a training camp number?
Then I remembered something about his namesake, Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto, who led Japan’s Pearl Harbor attack. The Admiral was born 高野 五十六, or Isoroku Takano, and the Yamamoto (山本) family adopted him when he was 32-a Japanese tradition enabling patriarchal succession.
Upon adoption he assumed the Yamamoto family name, but kept his given name Isoroku, which is an old fashioned way of saying his birth father’s age when he was born: 56.
You certainly have a creative mind!
I want to see Yamo kill it but he needs to cash in more needs to go to the net. Leon will find you keep your stick on the ice we need a 2nd line that takes the heat off of Connor.
I think you may have it backwards:
Hyman/McDavid/Jesse is scoring 1.98 G/60 whereas Nuge/Drai/Yamamoto is scoring 3.92 G/60.
I should also note that the McDavid line has been outscored on the year whereas the second line hasn’t give up a goal against as a trio.
The Drai line (with Yamamoto) has been leaps and bounds better than the McDavid trio.
Great bit of research.
Cheers!
I know Tipp is a ‘good coach’. But at some point the weaknesses have to be overcome. The team has to come out firing for starters.
The lack of effective cycling, varying degrees of neutral and D zone pressure. The sloppy play. Constant coverage issues.
Certain teams year in and out play solid, almost regardless of the roster. How do the Pens stay competitive even without 3-4 top players? With a rotation of defensmen year in and out, and some that aren’t even that good? At least on paper.
I see it as coaching. They all can do X’s and O’s. Who has a system that fits the team and changes in the state of the NHL game?
Who can get the players to play well? To buy in and work as a team? That’s the difference.
Flat Top was a Babcock guy. Almost all of those types are gone. Overly grindy systems.
Yes there are a lot of roster changes. It takes time. But we need to see progress, game to game.
I hope Woody has ditched all that Flat Top Babcock junk in his thinking.
If you take off the blinders Tippett was out Coached in the Hawks and Jets series if we don’t score on the PP we’re screwed. This is Tippett’s last season either win a playoff series are join the unemployment line. Holland went out and got hard on the puck playoff players Hyman and Foegele. The goaltending scares me either get Skinner going are pick up Fluery at the deadline.
well Tippett until this season has been handcuffed with only 3 top 6 forwards and Ahl level bottom 6, (and some Ahl level top 6 as well)
Holland has given Tippett 5 top 6 Forwards with a mobile D that can transition the puck up the ice quickly. Hopefully Holloway can be our secret weapon for the playoffs.
I’m hoping that Holloway’s thump heals fully this time and he can get a healthy 2-3 months as a Condor to start his pro career.
He was tracking beautifully then boom. If this surgery is unsuccessful then what? I want to see this kid bury the Flames and him being from lovely Bragg Creek will make it more special for him his family and Oiler Diehards.
He was tracking great, with a solid draft plus 1 as a 19 year old in college hockey.
Often those tracks become a bit of an up and down after the player turns pro, not often, almost always (of course, with exceptions).
In any event, once he hits the ice for a game (if he does come back “on schedule”, it’ll be the better part of a year since he played a game and he will have had the benefit of zero training camp sessions…. in his entire career.
I would love if he blew the doors off of Bakersfield, got called up and never looked back but, given the circumstances (and all other factors, like history and precedent), it seems a bit of a stretch at this point.
I too want him to bury the flames – he likely will, in due time.
He absolutely has not – from my view of the Condors.
I posted before the season started – Derek Ryan is about to turn 35.
Not sure if it was a good bet to expect him to outscore anyone.
Ryan has 1 point in 8 games. And while I realize some people get twitchy on this – playing
Vancouver twice, Anaheim, Arizona and now Seattle does not bode well for him
to score 15 goals this year. ( kidding)
3rd line is bleeding goals and that has to stop.
The odd thing is – I have liked the look of the 3rd line in general.
When Ryan was signed, I believe the intent if management (or the thought of much of the fanbase at least) was for him to be the 4C or at least transition to 4C during the course of the year.
The hope was (maybe still is) was that McLeod or even Holloway could be the 3C, or become the 3C during the course of the season.
Of course, as of a few weeks ago, McLeod wasn’t even a legit 4C and he has been assigned to work on areas of his game.
The above doesn’t have anything to do with McLeod perhaps being “better” than Shore at 4C right now – even if that is the case, that doesn’t mean that McLeod is ready for that job, he wasn’t two weeks ago.
I think Ryan (and the 3rd line) has done a serviceable job and their goal share under-represents their effectiveness – in particular as it relates to goals again.
Two of those goals against were a direct result of Mikko being bad against Philly, for example, with little culpability by the forwards.
Small samples are always dangerous to draw conclusions for. If they’re still under water to this degree once we have say 25 games in then we can take a closer look.
Sure would be nice to see a couple players emerge from Bakersfield and drop into the middle of the lineup.
I don’t see any reinforcements coming from Bakersfield as far as forwards – not for the middle of the lineup.
Holloway would be the only one that fits there at this point but his arrival is well in to the new year, if it comes this year (which I think is unlikely).
Of course, McLeod is a recall option but he would need to establish himself as a real 4C before he’s a middle of the lineup option – he’s a ways away from that.
Lavoie is non an option this season based on lack of progression and his play.
Marody is doing his AHL thing but, really, its Seth Griffith that’s the more material offensive player and driver on the farm.
I guess the one real long shot but maybe with a chance is Carter Savoie at the end of the Denver season but I think its premature to even start thinking about him being a straight from college to NHL option.
I think most people have the roster issues surrounded.
Whether here, or in the comments at the Athletic, the roster issues are clear and identified by most people. Now, I think the team is very good, but if we’re looking at getting even better.
It’s too bad about the Holloway injury for sure.
Obviously, there’s a limit to how many changes you can make with buying at the deadline.
I wonder what Fleury will cost, but I don’t think it will be a first.
3LD are easy to trade for at the deadline.
If you trade the 1st, hopefully it’s not a pure rental.
Ideally Samorukov and Holloway end up playing mid season or so and fill a few holes.
We’ll see.
How many of these holes can be filled is the question.
ha ha ha of course Benson gets the bench, called that a mile away.
As Lowetide said Benson had a shot on goal and another dangerous giveaway
I cannot understand the blinders people have on for Benson.
I hope he does well but come on guys he has not moved the needle. When the highlight is a muffin shot on goal from the slot we really are stretching looking for positives.
If Shore/Turris had committed his giveaway the world would be ending.
I’d have liked to see Benson get more rope to settle in, but neither he nor Perlini have moved the needle at all.
They have 3 SOG between them and both are under 40% SF, xGF etc.
They’ll rotate back and forth for the time being until/unless one of them begins to make some kind of impact.
Benson & Perlini both to succeed needs to play on a skill line. Neither really have the tools to play bottom 6. Unfortunately, their level of skill is below anyone of our top 9 skill line players. I don’t see Benson succeeding at this point. Perlini has a chance, since he can skate and has a pretty good shot. Perlini needs a set-up man and him finding the soft areas to shoot.
I think I like Perlini as the better of the two to my eye so far. I agree that it’s the loss aversion over DeBrincat which garners support for Benson.
I didn’t like that play leading to the goal against last night. He failed to get the puck deep at the opposition blue line, then he completely lollygagged on the back check and Soucy was left with all of the time in the world.
I hate those plays where the defending team collapse on the rush to near their goalie and there’s no support at all to pressure the d who are left wide open to score.
Yeah, I don’t really agree with that. They both just need to be ‘better’ at what they do and they can be effective in the bottom 6.
What tools have either developed so they can play the bottom 6 or 4th line? I don’t see either being aggressive fore or back checkers, strong at cycling or breaking cycles. You can’t have too many players playing a saw-off game and expect your team to be an SC contender. Need to move the needle against the other team’s bottom 6.
I can agree to an extent that there are bottom 6 player types and skill sets, but the most important one is being decent at hockey, no?
If either guy can be a little bit better at hockey they can help the Oilers 4th line IMO, even if they are a bit vanilla.
My point exactly…neither have moved the needle but yet you and other posters would have liked Benson to get more rope.
Is that because he is a “better skater, bigger body, has more NHL experience, or has played better”…no it is because posters like Benson and that is great.
But let’s call a spade a spade…people like him and want him to play…but he is not the game changer people make him out to be.
Your original post was about the ‘blinders people have on for Benson’. I was just including Perlini in the same category as neither has done anything to warrant a top 6 spot in the lineup, and there are folks with blinders on for both players.
Perlini is the “better skater, bigger body, has more NHL experience”. Benson is the better passer, younger, seems to be grittier. Both guys can do things. Neither has moved the needle yet. Agreed on that generally but for me they’re in the exact same category.
Totally agree with you that each have their strengths but neither has turned those strengths into production.
My point was that posters show one of them (Benson) an irrational amount of love, which they try to justify by how he has played.
Fair enough, there is more love for Benson than Perlini here, based on things other than their play on the ice.
I think that Benson has been more noticeable than Perlini over the course of the season – yes, for mistakes as well as good plays but Perlini has been a complete non-factor on almost all of his shifts.
I suppose; any difference since the start of the regular season is marginal though.
Clearly everyone’s opinion of Benson is based far more on his history than on his 3 games this season.
Of course but, to the direct point that I was making, i can’t think of a single play Perlini has made that was legit “plus play” and can think of a few for Benson.
I disagree with this. I don’t believe either players are going to be in the league long but I would run with Benson for a stretch of games for the following reasons.
1) In the regular season so far neither has shown much, but Benson has shown some physical play and Perlini has been invisible IMO.
2) Perlini has a track record of scoring some goals (like Shore) but still wasn’t signed last season. There is a history and I would argue we know who he is, and that isn’t an NHL player.
3) This is Benson’s first legitimate chance and there is a small chance he develops into a useful player. We at least need to see what he is in the NHL before he’s sent packing.
I don’t think it is because people like Benson more, he has just shown slightly more and we don’t know what he could be in the NHL , where with Perlini we already know.
The blinders are a grief mechanism, because DeBrincat.
I don’t think it is blinders as much as it “hope this works out” since the team has invested in the player.
8 games in. both Perlini and Benson will get more reps to determine who is likely to get more games later in the season.
Other than Perlini/Benson battling for 4LW, what are the other options you would suggest for this position anyway?
You have missed my point.
I am not saying that Benson>Perlini or Perlini>Benson or that there even is a better option.
What I am saying is that if someone was reading this blog and had not seen any of the games the narrative being portrayed is that Perlini is a station wagon while Benson is a Sports car that isn’t being driven properly.
The reality is we have 2 station wagons.
I think you could have chosen a better analogy just because Perlini sounds like a slick Italian race car, and Benson sounds more like a dependable American made family sedan
Shore, with Mcleod playing 4C…If Mcleod wasn’t waiver exempt they likely would have waived one of Turris, Benson, or Perlini 2 weeks ago.
What I’m saying is that I think McLeod is already better than all 3 of those players today (and Shore)…but only marginally better. Hopefully after another 20-30 AHL games he’ll come back and be markedly better.
Hometown Benson needs to find his niche he’s playing scared and he needs to relax. Benson needs to use the gifts that made him a star when he was a youngster. It seems like Tippett and Holland are giving him a honest chance and I hope he can slow down the game and stick in this league for the next decade.
I don’t think that Benson is playing scared at all – he’s made a couple of passes in the last few games that were semi high risk and that went for bad turnovers. I’ve been pleasantly surprised that the coaches have put him back out there.
I would like to see him get the odd shift with some skill – have McDavid take a shift in place of Shore, here or throw him with Drai and Kailer if Nuge has just killed a PIM (although that is “load up” time).
I expect a lot of two games in two games out with Benson and Perlini until someone gains separation and seizes it.
Perlini got the edge out of camp. Lost it. Benson got in. Did comparatively, but didn’t seize it. So Perlini gets another shot. This will repeat until someone gains separation.
This makes sense. Important to understand (for me) that bias skews the view. The two men will decide and that’s as it should be.
Bill Guerin’s tenure as an NHL GM appears to be on the same path of Stan Bowman.
“Jarrod said that seven months later, when the incident was brought to the attention of Guerin, who was the Penguins’ assistant general manager at the time, Guerin told him to keep quiet about the alleged assault.”
The old way of professional sports teams sweeping ghastly behavior by their employees needs to come to an end. I’m sure there are other perpetrators changing their underwear after a second major allegation.
Per Gregor: Perlini skaing with Shore and Turris so we can presume that is the 4th line next game.
The gang on twitter will no doubt be calling for Tippett to be fired (#tippetisaproblem) and likely Holland as well (not calling up McLeod to replace shore).
————
Per Gazzola: Smith working in his own net and Mikko/Skinner sharing the other which is likely a sign Smith is close to a return.
With that said, Gregor is advising differently – that “Koskinen is in “starter” net. Smith at the other end splitting reps with Skinner. Unless something changes it likes it will be “Another game for Mikko.:
Update on goalies from Gazzola:
Quick update – Koskinen and Smith took all the reps at each end for the rest of the practice. Skinner watched from the bench then joined Smith to do a little extra work at the end of the skate. Koskinen in starter’s net.
LT… How were Nurse and Bouch 1-0 on the night in light of the first Vegas goal?
Vegas?
Bouch wasn’t on the ice for that goal.
I think he meant to put 0-1. That is Bouchard’s 5 on 5 GF/GA for the game according the Naturalstattrick. Nurse was 1-1, but the +1 as LT mentioned was with Barrie.
I thought that was Benson’s best game (north of Centre Ice) as an Oiler. Well, there was at least one shift that was very good. More of that please. Won’t be surprised though if he and Perlini pop in and out of the line-up for the next few weeks…I would also not be surprised after that, if he has not shat the bed, gets some shifts with one of McD / Drai
I will be happy if the team can win and the top 2 D pairings are getting similar TOI at 5v5. This will be good in the long run for the team (rest for Nurse, not WAY too much on Bouch getting adjusted to his new role) and would also indicate that there is a legit Top4.
I agree that Benson looks ok. Not a world beater and not so good that he can’t be taken out of the lineup, but I have to say that I at least noticed him out there. He was trying to stir things up and get involved. To my eye, Perlini was invisible for the games he played, which is crazy given his speed, size and overall skill level. I think there is a reason he has bounced around. To me, Benson is solely focused on hustling. If he stays in the lineup, I think the game will slow down a bit and his natural skill sets will kick in, such as his passing.
Not the greatest game in the world, but we won and that’s the bottom line. IMO the top two lines play the game like they’re always on the PP. It looks to me like they’re making too many cute plays, over passing the puck in the ozone, and making extra passes when they should shoot the puck.
Maybe I’m wrong, but it feels like they will spend an extended period of time in the ozone and not actually get a shot on net.
Agreed that sometimes it looked like doing two much. Couple times with what felt like a 1-2 minute cycle in the zone of crazy passes but no shots/chances.
Which has been a problem since the 90s maybe except the 06ers
They should study tape of the Perfection Line
They have it to an art form
I think they need a structure/strategy as a base for creativity
If you aren’t getting pucks to the scoring area to a guy with a lane to shoot it’s hard to score
Structure and creativity are mutually exclusive. You can allow creativity within parameters. As soon as you add structure you also add predictability!
I get what you’re saying. If you think of it this way, Mozart had to know notes and learn to play the piano formally before he could create anything.
Too many options (not enough base strategy) only works for Connor and Leon. It’s too much for the rest – nothing much happens. Too many options or can’t see any options or think a few steps ahead.
That is what Bergeron’s line is so good at. Everyone knows what they are trying to do, same thing for years, can’t stop them.
To me they should know what they are trying to do, and after that their talent allows them to beat the bad guys in the play. Connor will still riff if anyone gives him a milimitre.
I thought the NHL was supposed to have all those fancy tracking chips installed on players now?
I would say that the Oilers time with possession would trend higher than their corsi this season, and I feel like quality chances are leaning towards the Oilers in most games.
They rarely ever shoot it for the sake of shooting.
Avs, Knights, Kings, Nucks, Kraken.. All teams Dallas Eakins Ducks are ahead of currently.
“McDavid should have drawn four. Shame on the NHL.”
While not surprising, it continues to be mind boggling to me that this is the case. Are the officials really following a game management directive? Is McDavid just too fast and the officials don’t see what is actually happening? If the penalties aren’t being called now, is there any hope of them being called in the playoffs? Are we doomed to season after season of regular season excellence and playoff mediocrity because officials won’t call the rule book?
I recall one particular play in the Winnipeg series last year. McDavid was the target of a fairly obvious kneeing infraction that went uncalled. He saw it coming and at the last possible instant tried to jump out of the way. There was still contact, McDavid went flying head over heals, but was able to avoid serious injury because his skate wasn’t planted on the ice when contact was made.
McDavid is such a fabulous player and asset not just to the Oilers, but to the league as well. It would be a shame if we didn’t get to enjoy his marvelous play for a long career because the NHL isn’t able to have it’s officials call the rule book as it is written.
The NHL should be ashamed. However, not calling penalties seems like small potatoes at the moment…
You’re right though. The non-calls are infuriating.
The zebras hate us because we are beautiful.
So true.
So when you set a consequence too high, you are less likely to follow through. “If you two keep fighting, I’m gonna turn this car around”. Well if it’s a road trip to Disneyland, then my kids could probably call my bluff.
With the Oilers, and with hockey, a power play, and the power play goal really has a huge impact on the result. Refs dont want to be a factor, so they shy away from calling it.
In basketball 1 individual foul has less consequence. Sometimes players dont even go to the line, and it’s a throw in. So things get called more.
If we were rebuilding the rule book, would you ever co sider having penalties that were weighted different in the o zone vs d zone? O zone penalty is 1 minute, defensive zone and transition = 2 minutes?
I’ve long wanted the more “stupid” penalties, such as puck over glass, to be 1 minute penalties
Why not eh?
Random musings with 10 percent of the schedule completed.
1. Koskinen. Are we still talking about trading him? And who is available that’s better? And what would they cost in salary and assets? Seems to me the Oilers should run with what they have. It will be interesting to see what they do at the trade deadline if both of our goalies are playing well. Has Holland already committed to upgrading?
2. Is Evan Bouchard as good as his fancies? Can he handle 1st pairing minutes for 82 games? Definitely saw some wobble last night. I’m watching for 2 things. He needs to engage quicker and harder in the dzone, that’s number 1 by a wide margin. I’m also watching how many shots of his have been blocked. I thought sifting pucks through was supposed to be a strength of his. I think he’ll be fine, but the Oilers are piling a lot on his plate right now.
3. I’m hearing all kinds of chatter about changing the 4th line. It’s the 4th line people, and I don’t really think it matters who slots in, none of the choices are game changers. I would have Turris playing every game on right wing. Cause he seems like the only guy in the bunch that can consistently make a play.
Really felt like Benson has done quite a bit with limited time the last couple of games.
Bouchard is going to be like Bear – he’s going to have wobble and, as LT says, single mistakes that resonate with the fanbase. Some people thought Bear’s fancies showed him better than he actually was…..and yet he’s now having the same effect in Carolina.
He, like Bear, got thrust into the first pairing role probably more quickly than anyone anticipated.
If he can’t handle top pair duty for the entire season, not sure that would be his fault.
Not sure what to think of Benson. Maybe they give him a run of 10 or 15 games to let him get comfortable. For me he’s looked like a good, not great, player at every level since he’s been drafted. But I haven’t seen anything from him at this level yet. Still boggles my mind that some people want to see him in the top 6.
I like Bouchard, but its asking a lot for him to play 1st pairing minutes on a cup contender in his first full year. And I don’t see much of a safety net below him.
I’m curious to see how the entire defense holds up when we’re playing against cup contenders. The schedule has been pretty soft so far.
We were pretty sure the forwards were the deepest we’ve had in years. The D and G were the big question marks. So far, so good, but I agree, the quality of competition in the schedule hasn’t been super high.
Wait until we play Avs, Bolts, Bruins, Panthers, Jets etc.
Are you suggesting Nurse was “wobbling”? So… Bouchard wasn’t the only one.
The “Larry-Murphy” naysayers came early like the gales of November.
VGK lose another forward.
William Karlsson out 6 weeks with a broken foot.
https://nhl.nbcsports.com/2021/11/01/golden-knights-injury-list-gets-more-ridiculous-with-karlsson-out/
Looks like a lost season for the Knights. No team can overcome injuries like that.
$24 million in cap space now injured.
Have to wonder when they wave the white flag and make moves for next season.
Trading for Eichel may be just such a move if it involves anyone off the roster.
Yep.
Latest I’ve heard is Reilly Smith(expiring contract) Shea Theodore and two picks.
In that case Buffalo will have Dahlin, Power, and Theodore on the back end. Now all they need is a #1 C who can put up a PPG+.
In any case, Shea Theodore at $5.2m for this year and then 3 more is worth significantly more than 10 million questions on LTIR. If Vegas is hellbent on cutting off one piece of anatomy to make another look bigger, they can land a much better return. Too much risk here, even for sin city.
Assuming full health for Eichel (likely a conditional trade on the picks) he is an elite #1C on of the toughest positions to fill on an NHL roster.
While Theodore is obviously a great talent, the recent extension given to Zach Whitecloud could signal Vegas thinks it can survive without him.
You mean the Zach Whitecloud, the third pairing D who signed a deal at $2.75m for eternity? Theodore straight up for Eichel is a horrible move by Vegas, and it’s not like Buffalo can just return Theodore if Jack never plays again. Either way, saying that Vegas does not need Theodore because of Whitecloud is akin to saying the Canucks can make Hughes expendable because of the emergence of Jack Rathbone.
Not in this division
It’s like someone tapped the Oilers on the shoulder and said ‘knock, knock’.
I would be sooooo happy if the Knights traded away Shea Theodore.
Regarding the 3rd line goal share, they really had no culpability on last night’s goal (Nurse, Bouchard, Koskinen), or the two against the Flyers (Koskinen). The stat makes them appear less effective than they have been overall.
EDM Goal Share after 8 games (7-1-0)
Even strength(5v5,4v4,3v3)
97 w/o 29 (2-4) 33%
29 w/o 97 (4-0) 100%
97&29 On (6-2) 75%
93 w/o either(1-2) 33%
Ryan (3-6) 33%
Other(1-2)33%
Net EV +1
Special Teams:13-2
Net ST +11
Empty Net:3-3
Net EN 0
SO/PS 1-0
Net SO/PS +1
Goal Diff +13
In 8 games EDM is +8 (83%) in EV goal share with Draisaitl on the ice and -7 (33%) when he’s not.
What a monster.
Others best be picking up the slack soon…..
Agreed… although we’re not talking Messier caliber here, Draisaitl is taking over games by himself… couple backhand passes resulting in turnovers you’d like cleaned up, but with 4 points on the night this is a minor complaint.
Careful. I’ve noticed that when you point stuff out like this, you have “7 and 1” screamed in your ear.
Things I like:
7-1 start.
Power Play
Forward Depth
PK
Things I don’t:
Nurse being walked on the reg.
Relying on hot tending.
Slow starts to games.
Being regularly out shot in games.
Even strength, or lack of it.
Things that are “Meh”.
Tipp’s coaching.
Agreed with most of this list.
I would say the forward depth has been medium. After the hot start, the third line is starting to get caved. The fourth line is a dog’s breakfast. Even McD/his line w/o Drai has been meh by McD standards.
Kassian gets satisfied easily. Trade him while he has respectable boxcars.
Please forgive me for not looking this up, but what is Drai’s QoC when not with McDavid? This isn’t meant to take anything away from him but I has always felt like Drai gets the slightly easier assignments when the pair are split up.
http://www.puckiq.com/woodwowy?player=8477934&teammate=8478402
This is from last year, but it would appear that McDavid alone played less than 4 more minutes than Drai against elites, 14 more minutes than Drai against middling competition and 7 more minutes than Drai against the Gritensity lines.
So throughout the whole season, McDavid and Draisaitl played very similiar levels of competition without one another.
Also interesting to note, against the elites, both Drai and McD were around 46 GF% when separated, but 73 GF% against elite competition when together. Matter of fact, in 460 minutes apart against the elites, they didn’t score as much as they did in the 108 minutes they played together against elite competition
460 minutes (combined) apart- 13 goals, 15 against.
108 minutes together- 14 goals for, 5 against
Nurse has been walked a couple of times (as has Bouchard). I don’t know if teams are just testing them by skating hard at them or what but it’s been noticeable.
Bouchard could have been more aggressive on the first Seattle goal, Nurse looked like a rookie who doesn’t have his man strength, and Koskinen had his only poor play of the night.
Not the top pair’s strongest night but some nice moments.
Bouchard had the puck cleared off the line, I thought for sure it was going in.
And people talking about Bouch’s value not necessarily showing up on the scoreboard, take a look at this chart
from this Athletic article.
https://theathletic.com/2929736/2021/11/02/fantasy-hockey-trends-and-hidden-gems-lucas-raymond-evan-bouchard-and-more-top-line-talents/
Bouchard’s not only the best D on the team with zone exits with possession, he’s one of the best in the entire league. Can’t see the names but judging by the logos I am assuming only Josi and Makar are ahead of him.
Couple that with one of the best in the league at zone entries…
I think Nurse’s poor game last night largely due to his other commitments yesterday. He was on a 3 plus hour NHLPA executive call and then in discussions and voting, etc. – that is a mentally draining day and, of course, not part of his normal game day routine.
I think his 21 minutes of overall ice time is reflective of his mental fatigue more than his poor night.
I do have a bit of concern that Nurse is going walkabout and puck-chasing more this year than last year. A key to the huge step he took last year was getting that out of his game but he has regressed (by my eye) a bit in that regard this year.
I think it might be part of “trying to hard” and potentially related to the giant contract he signed (which isn’t in effect yet).
In any event, here is hoping Nurse and Playfair are able to recognize and reign that in a bit….. well, unless I’m completely off base, which I may be.
Just a thought but if you were an opposing coach would not an appropriate strategy to employ be to have your puck carrier go at the stronger D knowing that if he takes his man which Nurse should have done he is likely to also take himself out of the play. Given he generally plays with Barrie who struggles defensively it would seem a reasonable strategy. Nurse has got caught at least twice in the last few games fishing for the puck instead of taking the man!
I am afraid the Shore/Turris goal (why didn’t Benson get the 2nd apple?) is going to keep them in the lineup. Up until that point, I thought they had been poor, and having them on the ice with Koekoek leads to chaos.
It’s funny that it’s the 3rd line getting punched out because I find the 4th is usually scrambly and underwater.
They need to improve on Shore and Koekkoek.
Agreed. I think the real goal here is to have McLeod and/or Holloway show that they can jump into the #3 hole and push Ryan down to the 4th line.
18-97-13
93-29-56
37-McLeod/Holloway-44
16-10-Archibald
I think I’ve fixed this issue. 🙂
Our team played down to the competition. They often do I feel. If they want to play down to the competition they should deploy a strong defensive game to limit the shots the opposition takes. Force the other team to go 200 feet. Work on cycling the puck down low and breaking out of your own end. It was a difficult game to watch when you feel the level of competing was low in the 1st 2 periods. JMHO
The competition dragged the Oilers down to a level they weren’t prepared for.
One would hope that they wouldn’t “play down to the comp” but, really, I don’t think its realistic to hope for the team to play 82 games with the intensity they did on Saturday in Vancouver or against Philly.
Its a tough grind, 82 games – not just physically, but mentally as well.
Every year elite teams will lose to some bottom feeders and, at some point, the Oilers will as well.
The thing is, elite teams are generally able to grind out wins in these types of games more often than not.
So far, so good.
I think it is important to mention, in reference to the 5v5 shot differential and the corsis, at 7-1 the Oilers have been leading often. In fact, the team has been either leading or tied for 342:49, and trailed for just 47(!) minutes. So taking the score into consideration, the team is as follows:
5v5 score tied
GF% – 53.3
CF% – 53.9
SH% – 52.9
When trailing, 4 GF, 1 GA and similar other fancies. When leading, these numbers go to the low 40% which is skewing the overall picture.
Thank you for this. I think this is a big nuance to the numbers that isn’t getting quite enough attention.
Ideally, their shot share wouldn’t sink as much with a lead, but I think this is something that can be worked on. As LT says, “miles to go”.
For sure – last night they led early and I thought it affected the game. The team wasn’t worried about the Kraken being able to mount a comeback, because they are an overall unskilled team IMO. Not a perfect approach but score effects are at play in a game like that.
Yeah with elite teams I would assume it’s not poor even when leading.
I think we can all agree that Tampa Bay is an elite team. Their corsi when leading? I’m glad you asked. 44.0% Just below the Oilers.
The only two teams in the league who have held a lead longer than Edmonton this year are the Flames (spits) and the Panthers (1 more game played).
Calgary 45.8%, a shade over Edmonton, and Florida is over 57%. I’d say that regresses but FL is an unbelievable team. Hurricanes also within 1% CF of Edmonton and Tampa.
So the short answer is, corsi drops significantly when a team is leading. CF%, SH%, and GF% are more accurately measured when teams are tied, especially in smaller samples like 8 games. The Oilers are top 10 in each category.
This is a very good point and LT and Tyler talked about it on the show today.
Good point.
Technically speaking the worst player last night was McDavid.
The Kraken were able to drag even him down a notch or more. Maybe he needs to stop tucking in his jersey.
Maybe someone needs to show McDavid pics of Orr and Howe then ask “Are their jerseys tucked in?” lol
Seattle decided to exclusively concentrate on McDavid. It appears to have cost them.
lol yeah at one point 4 Kraken literally swarmed him as he went to the boards
He would just point to pictures of Gretzky with his jersey tucked in.
Okay so how many think it looks “cool”?
press +
My money is on it being tucked for a superstitious or comfort reason.
(hands up)
That post could have been a lot better thought out.
its been a long day
Kraken are a wack team. Last night they essentially played like the old California Seals playing the Montreal Canadiens, when it might be 8-1 or 3-3 depending on the weather.
Bad teams can do that to good ones.
That said, it was about as entertaining a game of river hockey I’ve ever seen.
So glad to see the team winning, and getting along, and 1/10 of the season in they’re leading the Conference.
Even HH is forced to make outlandishly mentally challenged statements (instead of his usually measured ones) to even hope of getting a rise out of anyone when it’s a 7-1 team.
I am convinced that Draisaitls first goal was a deliberate and precise turn of the skate blade.
I watched the replay a few times, it was 100% deliberate.
Yeah my joke was that Bayern Munich might want to take a closer look.
100% certain it was intentional.
I agree. That looked intentional to me.
Originally read this as “That looked irrational to me.” which also works surprisingly well.
But…. He didn’t make any kind of a kicking motion, simply changed the angle a bit. Good for him.
Drai himself said post-game that it wasn’t intentional…… I do take him at his word on that one but you never know….
Does Kris Russell move at the deadline? or, do they view him as insurance coverage in case of injury?
I doubt Holland trades away a cheap veteran dman. Unless he flips Russell for assets and then acquires a different dman.
Cheap insurance.
I still feel like he’s better than KoekKoek.
Russell’s value at the deadline is cheap depth for a playoff team gearing up for a run.
That’s kind of what the Oilers will likely be (and looking for a boost at 3LD).
I guess I could see Russell moved in a seperate move if 3LD is upgraded (either via Samorukov or an external acquisition) and we still have Koekkoek as 3LD.
I do think its unlikely that Holland moves any roster d-men out as the season goes on.
I have enjoyed Kassian’s hot start offensively, but if there is a trade available Holland needs to jump on it. Kass is so bad in the D zone. I do not think I have ever seen him win a battle on the boards in his own zone, absolutely clueless. Kassian has been instrumental in the bleed out of line three.
Kassian + real assets for decent c/rw would be neat.
Kassian probably isn’t going anywhere. Last night he flattened Giordano as payback for hitting McDavid several years ago.
Kassian provides crazy unpredictability to the opposition who hate his guts. Now that he’s playing real hockey finally, he’s basically a power forward. His skill level reminds me of Georges Laraque, but instead of endlessly cycling the puck in the corners and politely refusing to fight Kassian actually will go out of his way to cause mayhem.
That’s probably what is keeping him on the team.
As for tweaks, salvation lies within.
Samorukov at 3LD
A stronger 4th line including Holloway and Archibald and McLeod
And a consistent progression in our commitment to play tighter defensively (it’s not something you can just turn on in the playoffs)
A goalie in the offseason.
As much as Archie would help, his condition may end his career.
We are getting away with a bunch of stuff early that will kill us in the payoffs. Need more size in a few places.
McD JP and Hyman are great – let them play
Would like a bigger puckhound and shooter for 2LW. Might try Perlini here for a bit even if his checking is sketchy. It would be a big knock knock moment for him. RNH is playing great but playoff sucess will require some moves
I think we still need a 3C as Ryan is better suited to 4C at this stage of his career. RNH is an elite 2LW but I would love him in between Kass and Fog on the 3rd line for the playoffs.
The 4th line is a mishmash. We have 3 LW (Shore, Benson, Perlini) and 2 RW (Turris, Scevior). Ryan between Shore and Scevior would be my pick for a low event, reliable checking line. Benson is coming along, his skating is not an issue at all, and he just needs to play (somewhere).
Waiting for Samarukov to get fully healthy and paired with Barrie. That will be nice.
Start Skinner tomorrow if Smith is still not ready.
Agree on Samorukov at 3LD. We don’t know if he’ll be able to be that guy this year (although he very well could be and could be exceptional in the role) but we know that Koekkoek/Russell are not good enough at 3LD with Barrie.
We should know more about Sammy in the next 1-3 months and, if Holland/Tippett aren’t there yet on him, this could be a deadline upgrade spot.
Holloways could be an angel appearing for a bottom 6 center but, for me, at this point, I just want him to get that scaphoid healthy and play for a few months as a Condor – I can’t count on him (although there is a non-zero chance he does appear).
The hope at that spot is McLeod develops as needed in the AHL although, to my eye, he remains the exact same player he was in the AHL last year (and not growing the parts of his game that got him re-assigned a few weeks ago).
Both Koekkoek and Russel might be just fine with Bergland by the trade deadline. More size good shot and can play defence. It seems counterproductive to have to look for a top pairing skill set D to play third pairing to cover for Barrie’s defensive shortcomings. Bottom line is if Barrie’s offence can be provided by Nurse or Bouchard on the power play Barrie becomes redundant!
I think there may be a better chance that Samorukov will be 3LD paired with Barrie this season than Berglund will be 3RD paired with Koekkoek/Russell this season.
Berglund is older and more experienced by Samorukov is the higher ceiling player and he’s charging hard.
Also, whether there are merits to it or not, I just don’t see Holland trading Barrie during this season at all – like a zero chance.
Nugent-Hopkins and Draisaitl are just beginning to wind it up again, and get the “party started” in here.
Draisaitl needs Nugent-Hopkins if he is going to hit 50 goals. McDavid and Draisaitl are the goal-scorers you are looking for.
Draisaitl’s top end will be truncated without an elite passer like Nugent-Hopkins on his line. Draisaitl’s shot is the best weapon on the team. It is extremely foolish to keep it holstered by NOT playing him with an elite passer.
Mikko at 2X$2M might be a steal of a contract
For who?
.
.
kidding 🙂
Mike Smith as a $2.2m Backup could be part of a winning tandem / strategy.. imo
“with emphasis on what needs to be tweaked after a 7-1-0 start.”
Cap space. We need more cap space. 🙂
Random Thoughts:
Tip nailed it: 2nd line, 2nd pairing and Mikko were good – that’s about it
Nurse had a poor game but I’ll give him a bit of a pass considering he was working in his NHLPA rep duties all day – draining and out of pre-game schedule. It was nice to see Playfair actually cut his minutes to 21 acknowledging the situation.
Atta boy Mikko.
Nuge’s pass to Hyman on the second Drai goal was the play of the game.
Cody Ceci is solid to plus 2nd pairing right shot D – he’s been good, and getting better, pretty much all season.
The Oilers played down to their comp last night – they had about a quarter of the intensity as they did against Philly or Vancouver. Not great that they did that but all teams do it through 82 games and they got the win. That’s what good teams do.
Its a good think that the league doesn’t assign points based on schedule and comp, really the Oilers only deserve maybe 8 or 9 points, certainly not 14.
If you were standing next to Miko, you would not be calling him “boy”.
Somebody had a sense of humour to pair Mikko with Yammo in the post-game press conference.
That Nuge pass to Hyman was fabulous. That whole goal was fabulous, starting with Barrie’s stretch pass to Nuge while Seattle was distracted by McDavid circling behind his own net. Barrie to Nuge to Hyman to Drai, three great passes & Leon was able to chip it upstairs for the finish. Glorious.
Oh, Bruce, Barrie cannot be praised for “3rd assists”, we know that his first assists barely count and his 2nd assists surely should not…
False narrative. 2nd assists have not been an argument of Barrie’s critics.
Point parisitism has nothing to do with 2nd assists, and everything to do with excessive risk-taking for offense, production that would have occured anyways from forwards without the excessive risk-taking.
You have a short memory.
2nd assists were used with extreme prejudice by Barrie critics last season and over the summer.
100% factually incorrect.
Not by me.
Why is it about you?
I’m not sure what this team looks like with adequate goal tending. We’ve seen exceptional and poor and we know what they look like.
“Imagine Oilers fans online if Ken Holland signs him long term!”
#ShitDisturber 🙂
Some bloggers just want to watch the world burn.
LT is trolling his own blog.
World Series: The sports data pioneer who spotted baseball’s big fix of 1919 – BBC Sport
Interesting read.
enjoyable read, thanks