During his first trip to Bakersfield to meet the media and the Condors organization in 2018, Jay Woodcroft said his AHL team would be based on pace, puck possession and playing a connected brand of hockey in all three zones. How the hell were we to know he was telling the truth?
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: The Oilers won often in November, but is their roster built to keep winning this way?
- Lowetide: The Oilers’ prospect pipeline has produced 2 call-ups on defence this season. Who’s next?
- DNB: What I think and what I know about the Oilers through their first 20 games
- Lowetide: How promising is the Oilers’ Russian prospect pool?
- DNB: Could Leon Draisaitl score 50 goals in 50 games?
- Lowetide: How the Oilers most pressing needs have changed since the offseason
- DNB: Tales from the days Kailer Yamamoto, Ryan McLeod, Evan Bouchard and Tyler Benson were minor league roommates
- DNB: For Emily Cave, Colby’s widow, a trip back to Boston is about memories, love and legacy
- Lowetide: Is the Oilers’ Leon Draisaitl even better than we think? A look at his stunning historic comparables
- DNB: Philip Broberg’s first NHL game was as special as he’d hoped
- Lowetide: Philip Broberg is ready for his NHL audition
- Lowetide: Why Kailer Yamamoto is still on the Oilers’ No. 2 line
- Lowetide: Three auditioning Oilers who are finding their groove and hope to find their place
- Lowetide: Should the Oilers move Ryan Nugent-Hopkins to the 3rd line?
In early 2017, Clarence Paller delivered the following for PHPA.com: The AHL is a critical factor for an NHL team’s success. More young players are stepping into key roles with NHL teams and are being heavily relied on. This is made possible by the development model of the AHL. It is no surprise that the Canucks are full of Utica Comets players from last season’s Calder Cup final run team and this season the Maple Leafs heavily relying on players from the Toronto Marlies, who are also poised to make a deep playoff run. Ultimately, the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Vancouver Canucks are re-structuring around young talents and this season offers us a glimpse of an exciting future to come.
I wrote about it at the time, and sometimes look back on those 2017 teams (Marlies and Comets) and compare their success to Edmonton’s minor league teams during the same period. If Mr. Paller’s words are true, then the Canucks and Maple Leafs should have a large number of these men on their roster currently. Right? Here are the players from that roster (and Woodcroft’s Condors), with the ones who are on the parent team’s roster in yellow:
- LW Adam Gaudette 168 games (Van)
- RD Ethan Bear 148 games
- LC Trevor Moore 143 games (Tor)
- RW Kailer Yamamoto 125 games
- LC Tanner Kero 118 (Van)
- LW Pierre Engvall 113 games (Tor)
- LD Caleb Jones 97 games
- G Thatcher Demko 89 games (Van)
- LW Carl Grundstrom 88 games (Tor)
- RC Zack MacEwen 73 games Van)
- LD Rasmus Sandin 59 games (Tor)
- RW Patrick Russell 59 games
- LW Mason Marchmant 47 games (Tor)
- LW Dmytro Timashov 45 games (Tor)
- LD William Lagesson 29 games
- RW Timothy Liljegren 27 games (Tor)
- LD Calle Rosen 25 games (Tor)
- LC Adam Brooks 25 games (Tor)
- LD Olli Juolevi 23 games (Van)
- LD Ashton Sautner 23 games (Van)
- RC Josh Currie 22 games
- RD Jalen Chatfield 18 games (Van)
- LC Jonathan Dahlen 17 games (Van)
- LW Tyler Benson 16 games
- LW Joe Gambardella 15 games
- LW Jonah Gadjovich 12 games (Van)
- LD Guillaume Brisebois 9 games (Van)
- RW Kole Lind 8 games (Van)
- G Stuart Skinner 7 games
- RW Cooper Marody 6 games
If Mr. Paller’s words are correct, then the men in yellow are the ones still standing. I count four for Edmonton three for Toronto, and one for Vancouver.
That’s not really the right way to look at this of course, because (as an example) Ethan Bear is one of the truly valuable players on this list, and Edmonton traded him for a player of value in an area they needed to address.
So, let’s try this another way. Let’s say it’s an expansion draft, and we get to select five men from this list, no pullbacks from any organization so it’s five from the pool of 30 above. What is the order? That’s going to take all day to discuss, so better pack a lunch, but here’s my list.
- Ethan Bear
- Thatcher Demko
- Kailer Yamamoto
- Rasmus Sandin
- Jonathan Dahlen
That’s my list, your mileage may vary. If we went 10 deep, I think two more Woodcroft men (Caleb Jones and Stuart Skinner) would make the list. The bottom line is that Edmonton’s farm team, long a vast wasteland best described as the Dead Sea for hockey prospects, is now producing quality and quantity.
Jay Woodcroft. Dave Manson. J-F Houle. These men have fundamentally changed the course of Oilers hockey and you can see it every night. That brings me to the point of today’s post.
JAY WOODCROFT, NHL HEAD COACH
The point of today’s post is to prepare you for the loss of Jay Woodcroft to another organization. Now, I know some of you think that if you yell about Dave Tippett long enough, Woodcroft will be hired in Edmonton, but history is an excellent forecast for the future and Ken Holland likes to hire a coach once every decade and that’s a long, long time.
Holland’s first coach in Detroit was Scotty Bowman, who left after winning the 2002 Stanley Cup. It was his ninth, incredibly. Poor Buffalo.
His next hire was Dave Lewis, who lasted just two seasons and won just a single playoff round.
Mike Babcock was more successful, he spent a decade in Motown and won a Stanley there. Jeff Blashill was chosen by Holland in 2015, never won a round of playoffs and remains the coach for the winged wheel.
I don’t see Tippett as being similar to Lewis. Perhaps I’m wrong. I see the Holland-Tippett relationship as running together through 2025 summer, when Leon Draisaitl’s contract is done. That’s four more years.
Any change in direction now will involve reassessing, retooling and a period of transition. This train is headed for glory. It doesn’t mean it will get there, ask Emile Francis how the 1972 New York Rangers busted rails and didn’t finish the job.
That said, the train is populated and the die is cast. Whether it’s headed for Stanleytown or over a cliff, we don’t know. The train does have Dave Tippett at the controls and I don’t see that changing.
Godspeed, Jay Woodcroft. My God you have done a stunning job in a previously impossible situation. Pick a good team and a GM who believes in you.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A busy morning on the Lowdown, TSN 1260. We’ll talk Oilers and their big road trip, plus Condors and their Leftorium. We’ll spend extended time discussing the MLB free-agent frenzy currently spiraling out of control, and Jason Gregor from TSN 1260 will talk about the Oil and CFL playoffs. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
Winnipeg outshoots Arizona 46-15 but lose 1-0 as Vejemelka gets the shutout.
Hockey can be such a strange and infuriating game.
LT
would a retool actually be necessary if the reins were turned over to Woodcroft? The man is completely familiar with all the players for the most part as he was assistant coach before Tippett was hired and has worked with all the drafted players since that have come through the Condors. It would seem to be almost advantageous to hire him over an outsider coming because of his knowledge of the Oiler players. He would assuming an in season coaching change be the ideal candidate. There is know way that Holland changes the coach this season in my opinion. It would send the wrong message to the entire hockey community players and coaches alike! He has pieced together a workable D even with the current injuries and the players seem to want to play for him. The overall record speaks for itself. Assuming McDavid was getting the calls he should be getting the 5 on 5 scoring would look much better because the opponents would have to quit mugging and interfering with him on a constant basis to so call manage the game!
I don’t know if the Oilers problems 5 on 5 are because the systems/structures they use are not working or are the players not executing those systems consistently for a full game. They clearly execute the PP structure well and the team has also figured out a way to play the Power Play that takes advantage of the talent they have. Is their success a double edged sword in that the special teams overcome their weaker 5 on 5 play so they rack up the wins, but aren’t motivated enough to fully work on the weakness. Every press availability all the players do talk about needing to fix it.
While McDavid (and to a lesser extend Draisaitl) not being hooked, held or interfered with as much would likely lead to an improvement in the top 6 5 on 5 goal share, they are still already positive. No one is the bottom 6 is getting this treatment, so they don’t have that excuse for why they are so far underwater on goal share. Granted a rising tide can lift all boats, and if McDavid were allowed to play with the same rules as everyone else, that might result in Edmonton having more leads, forcing the other team to open up more and changing the environment that the 3rd and 4th lines get to play in. More leads also would probably get the 3rd a 4th lines more ice time, allowing them to get into the flow more.
Glad to see the league chose to hold Marchand accountable for his very dangerous and obvious (except to the refs calling the game) slew foot and suspended him for 3 games.
https://www.nhl.com/news/bruins-marchand-suspended-three-games/c-328457290
Sometimes the DOPS gets it right. Other times an added E is appropriate.
Personally, I would have been OK with 5 games, given Marchand’s prior history of douchebaggery. That’s a “gotta have it” call if you’re a ref on the ice, and just perfectly encapsulates all that is wrong with NHL officiating these days.
Yeah no question Marchand plays like a douchebag. While this is his seventh suspension and the NHL made mention of it in their video, I understand because he was last disciplined was more than 18 months ago, per the CBA prior suspensions can’t be factored into the length of suspension.
I hate defending the refs because they miss some very blatant shit (ie. calls that neophyte hockey fans would recognize as a penalty), but I can see how they might have missed that one. Marchand caught OEL shoulder-to-shoulder and knocked him off-balance; then threw the slew foot on his follow through. Very sneaky dirty. The play happens very fast in real time and if the refs’ views were even mildly obstructed, they might have thought Marchand knocked OEL over with the body contact. That play makes my blood boil because it is intent to injure and it’s such a disrespectful play. He’ll miss the next three games (DRW, Preds, TBL) and hurt his team. Ironically, he’ll return against the Canucks and will have to answer directly to them.
Too bad the league didn’t punish Matt Tkachuk in his first career game when he slew-footed Brandon Davidson. I know it was a few years ago, but a little bit of consistency would be nice.
I’m still pissed about that.
Garbage hockey, gutless filth.
I guess the world needs villains, or at least the NHL seems to think so, considering how they condone this behaviour.
My initial though was to post something along the lines of:
“does DeBrusk help prevent goals any more than Kassian?”
My thinking is that DeBrusk is an equally poor defensive player. Looking at his GA/60 (which, of course, is a flawed stat for individuals, and it was below 2.0 for three years in a row as a Bruin). That could have alot to do with his team and deployment – I haven’t looked at his PuckIQ metrics.
Maybe he isn’t as poor a defensive player as I initially thought – maybe he doesn’t make the identification mistakes that Kass makes, consistently.
At the same time, I do know that he really is a one-dimensional player that adds very little if not producing – he is poor in battle, poor on the boards, etc.
Would he be “better” in our top 6 permitting Kailer to play 3RW (and Kass 4RW)? I don’t know.
There isn’t speed there.
There isn’t aggression there.
There isn’t battle there.
Remember, this is a one-year rental given his high QO that he clearly won’t warrant.
There is the argument that the Oilers would be better by just removing Kass and his $3.2M for two more seasons.
There is an argument that the Oilers “require” his truculence, etc.
I don’t think DeBrusk makes the current team better over Kass.
I’m not sure management wants Kass and his $3.2M gone like many (not all) fans.
Well said. I agree.
Debrusk is $4.8 mil real money this year.
He had 1 good year
Jake is 25 years old now.
Once again, his coach is calling out his effort level.
Offensive instincts are there, but not much else.
It will be interesting to see the Return Boston gets for him.
Very highly Doubt Holland or Tippett want Kassian gone
but if they decide to, the goal should be cap flexibility and not bringing a Debrusk back
That would be cap flexibiity going forward (as Jake would be gone next season or, if brought back, at a vastly reduced cap hit).
Debrusk is a LW. The Bruins tried moving him to RW when they acquired Taylor Hall
last season and the experiment was a complete bust. I don’t believe Jake could push any of our RW down the lineup, and there is certainly no space on LW ahead of Hyman, RNH, or Foegele.
I just don’t see what some fans desire in him. As for toughness, he has 57 penalty minutes in 261 career games, so…
I don’t disagree but, of course, Hyman could play the right wing pushing others down.
With that said, I’ve been pretty clear against this player and I’m not sure he makes the team better if he’s replacing Kassian in the lineup.
Would be interesting to see Hyman on right wing and Benson given a shot at the left. If Benson could gain traction there, it would solve a lot of problems.
If I could trade Kassisn for Debrusk I do it in a heartbeat. Clearly there is a disconnect between the player and the coach, and there has been for awhile. With a new team and a new coach, he could very well rediscover his game. Getting rid of Kassian is worth the trade alone. Who cares if he walks next year.
After watching DeBrusk get walked by Cody Ceci, I can’t believe this is even a topic of conversation anymore.
If Tippett has another disappointing post season…I think Playfair get the HC job
Before I get too many downvotes, allow me to qualify the statement: I’m not saying Playfair is the right candidate…I’m saying given Ken Holland’s track record I think Playfair is the most likely candidate if Tippett fails.
LT – I see the Holland-Tippett relationship as running together through 2025 summer, when Leon Draisaitl’s contract is done. That’s four more years.
So no SCF appearances in the foreseeable future.
Tipps has to perform this post season, there’s zero chance Holland will tie all 5 years of his reign to Tipps crashing out in the playoffs.
Tipps needs a competitive conference finals appearance in order to keep Ken from looking for another coach.
If Tippett loses to Calgary he’s gonzo.
Tip is a weak tactician. Plain and simple. His in-game decision making is often poor, sometimes bordering on ridiculous. Why tie yourself to a guy who is outcoached on a nightly basis more often than not. He is owed nothing more than his current contract allows. Just move on.
I would posit that most fans likely have only a superficial understanding of what an NHL head coach “does” and the impact they have on the game nightly. I’m pretty sure I do.
Personally, I don’t think the team is 15-5 despite their coaching and I don’t think they’d be better, or winning in a way that would please the fanbase more, with Sutter or Trotz or Cooper or Woodcroft behind the bench.
“I would posit that most fans likely have only a superficial understanding of what an NHL head coach “does” and the impact they have on the game nightly. I’m pretty sure I do.”
This is spectacular
To be clear, I was including myself as a person that is far from qualified to opine on the true scope of an NHL head coach’s job and ability.
I believe most fans have a similar level of knowledge about coaches, the difference is what we value in assessing their success.
For instance, Craig MacTavish was an outstanding five-on-five coach and had holes in power play success and nurturing high-end offensive potential.
Those are the things that matter to me. I don’t feel another fan’s insight is more or less qualified than mine, certainly no one on this site who posts regularly would be addled in hockey knowledge.
HOW we look at the game is different. There are no Hunt brothers among Oilers observers.
Spot on positing, OP. I don’t know what he does either, superficially or otherwise. I can see that he doesn’t line match worth a shit. He seems reluctant to use his time outs. He can’t keep his top goaler fresh because he won’t play the backup unless he is forced by injury to do so. He has difficulty finding the off button on the top 6 blender. He can’t help but overplay his top two forwards and his number one defenseman into exhaustion. He couldn’t find time to play Bouch last year in meaningless games to get him valuable NHL experience. He finds it difficult to make in-game adjustments. He is outcoached on a nightly basis more often than not, at least from my superficial understanding.
And 15-5 this year, I don’t really care. It means very little. The Dave Tippett playoff coaching debacles the last few years I very much care about. And I expect we will see a repeat performance this year at the hands of a Sutter, a Maurice or the like.
“Jesse is a real good player, he’s an upper echelon player. He’s not a young player any more. He can drive. We talk about McDavid and Drai driving their own line. Jesse can drive his own line…….Jesse just isn’t a compliment player, he’s a driver and all the stats we look at backs that up”
Tip
For Tip’s tracking, scoring chances (for and against) don’t matter vis-a-vis a particular player unless they are involved with them.
Where the chances are coming from is a big part of it – for example “inside chances” – there may be outside scoring chances with Russell but not much gets inside on him.
Somewhat of an update on Holloway from Tip – starting to do a bit with his hand. He’s got a bit of motion in in. Saw the doctor today and got cleared to do a little more so that’s a good sign. Don’t think he’ll play before Christmas still but he’s starting to use his hand which is a bit better.
Excellent- thanks
Coach confirmed that Broberg is playing so much “out of necessity” and when the other guys get back, they’ll play ahead of him:
“those guys come back, they’ll play ahead of him. He’s a good young player but lets be realistic.”.
What about Russell and Koekkoek though?
Tip didn’t go in to detail of all the left shot d-man and who might play 3LD if full healthy.
I think Koekkoek is a little ways away so there is likely an opportunity to see Broberg with real 3LD minutes behind Nurse and Keith.
Russell is no longer an every day guy in any event (in my opinion).
I presume the plan would be for Broberg to go back down if every d-man was healthy but his performance in a true 3LD spot could change plans and should prove very informative.
Based on play in the last 3 to 4 games, I think Tippett plays Russell in front of Broberg once Nurse and Keith are back. In discussing Broberg’s last game, Tippet mentioned the several occasions where Broberg made the wrong decision resulting in continued chaos in the Oilers end while the the same presser as you pointed out elsewhere, he discussed how rarely Russell concedes an inside scoring chance. Tippett was clear, he is discussing a very young defenseman who is learning so he wasn’t being critical, he was just tempering expectations of the press that Broberg is ready to thrive. I am sure Playfair and Tippett have discussed all this with Broberg.
What a great learning experience for Broberg to get this stint, though. Broberg in his talk today even mentioned how much faster the play is and how quick you have to make decisions. He is realizing that you make a mistake in the AHL and the opponents still have some hesitation in taking advantage so you have time to recover. In the NHL, the players capitalize on mistakes in a flash. Getting this fortunate opportunity now, will likely have accelerated his development since he has an even better idea of what to work on when he goes back. He has a real shot to be called back up in the Spring based on merit if he doesn’t get recalled due to injury.
There is no doubt that Tippett has a trust level in Russell way higher than Broberg at this point in time – as he should.
I also think that Tippett understands that watching Broberg play 23 minutes with Lagesson and Russell as the other LD, and watching him play a 3LD role with Nurse and Keith in the lineup, are two vastly different things and there is much information to gain from at few at bats for Broberg with that deployment.
I presume that Broberg will be re-assigned once both Keith and Koekkeok are back but I also think the org will want to see him play some games as described above prior to Koekkoek coming back (and also in the name of load management for Rusty).
The main piece of the Caleb Jones disposition:
https://twitter.com/goalieguy87/status/1465154587627765771
My trade/waiver want is still a bigger aggressive low end 3C / high end 4C. The bottom line is getting better with Scevior and Benson settling in, but Ryan is not helping. I see him as an extra forward at this point with Turris. When Shore comes back somebody has to be waived and IMHO it’s obviously Perlini. Hopefully somebody takes another chance on him for both his sake and ours.
Veteran coaches have their bag of tricks, strengths and weaknesses. I think we have maximized Tip’s positive contributions and need to move on since the team’s issues (poor starts, poor 5×5 play, poor bottom lines, goalie management) are not getting better or likely to get better under this coach. He’s done a lot for the org but another guy is needed to get the team over the top.
Old posts are fun – hey that Paddy Moran guy pegged Skinner quite nicely over 3 years ago 🙂
Has Perlini played his last ever NHL game?
There are teams that could use him, give him another shot.
If you need skill and speed, giving him a shot is worth it. I’m thinking Kraken for example. Lots of two ways, lots of role players, lacking enough skill. Maybe they can shelter him.
The Oilers are deeper but still lack enough good role players that can score a bit. They don’t need more skill, especially limited skill.
I read that Holloway has been skating with the team for at least several weeks if not longer….what I want to know is ….Is he Shooting the puck ????
This is the biggest issue this season for me. Poor kid, I really hope he is healing well and can avoid any issues with this.
His health is of course most important, but as a player he seems like just what the doctor ordered. Another big fast skilled two way C/W that was close to ready.
If he heals up well this time, he may not be long in the A. It will be a good problem for the coaches trying to fit him in.
We need to drop Yamo in the batting order and Holloway will make the second line a force to reckon with come Playoff time.
Ya I’m thinking Yamo would be the spot.
I’m going to guess that would be a “no”.
Holland mentioned a week or two ago that Holloway would be having “pictures taken” around December 1 and the hope is that he’ll start to be able to “do more” after than in December.
Highly doubt it
xrays are supposedly in a week or so to see how it’s healing
but I’m sure his cardio is great as you don’t need a scaphoid to skate
Tippett said today that Holloway has made progress and was cleared by the doctor this morning to start using his hand (didn’t say what that means but it is a step forward). Tippett finished with he still doesn’t expect Holloway to be playing before Christmas.
Not fast enough for some, but that sounds like really good news!
Do you know which wrist it was right are left.
Apparently the left wrist He shoots left, which likely means he is right handed, since more Canadians are taught to have their dominant hand at the top of the stick. Either way, his repaired hand will be lower hand on the stick. That is was his left hand he injured also makes sense as that was his free hand that got jammed into the boards in the playoff game.
No breaking news here but its very clear that Tippett never “demoted” Jesse, its just a lineup balance thing and confidence in Jesse to be able to drive/lead:
Jason Gregor
@JasonGregor
·
9m
“I think he can drive a line. I spoke to him about taking a leadership role on the line with Mac (McLeod). I loved how he played against Vegas. I see him as more than a complementary player and we want to get a third line going.” Tippett on moving Puljujarvi with McLeod. #Oilers
Frickin love this. Thrilled the coach had a discussion with him beforehand.
I’d say man management is one of Tippett’s greatest strengths
So, if Shore is about a week away and Nurse/Keith are the closest, perhaps we see Nurse Wed or Friday.
Jason Gregor
@JasonGregor
·
14m
Smith, Keith, Nurse, Shore, Holloway all skated as a group before practice. Tippett says Keith and Nurse are the closest. Smith has been on the ice for four days, and today was first day he stopped pucks. Shore is still one week away. Via Tippett. #Oilers
I never thought I would say this but I look forward to Shore returning to the line up to replace the constant rotation of Perlini & Benson .( Shore – Ryan – Seviour / Turris ) should suffice for now as a fourth line .
They only need 13 forwards , so they can go with 8 Dmen , or even 3 goaltenders when Smiddy returns .
Imo I prefer Benson over Shore, Perlini or Turris.
From Oilers blog:
Lines at practice appeared to be:
Forwards
Hyman – McDavid – Kassian
RNH – Draisaitl – Yamamoto
Foegele – McLeod – Puljujärvi
Perlini/Benson – Ryan – Sceviour
Defence
Russell – Barrie
Broberg – Ceci
Lagesson – Bouchard
Goalies
Koskinen
Skinner
Blog mentioned no Keith, Nurse or Koekkoek. Did not mention Turris, but he is also not listed in the lines.
Turris has played himself into the press box just like last year. I could see him getting waived once they need the roster spot
Scored 2 shootout goals to win us games that we probably lose. How much money is 2 points worth in the standings?
They may have lost them but who is to say that Jesse or Nuge or any number of players would’t have scored?
Who’s to say if we play Bouchard in the playoffs last year we beat half a Jet team.
It was mentioned that Ryan is centring the group of 4th line wingers – all four of them getting reps with Ryan.
Oilers spending New Years Eve in NYC. Taking family? Three games, no flying. Win baby win.
For as long as I can remember we always had some sort of home stand around Christmas and New Years. I say this works out for us better the gang has no distractions with family and visitors wanting their time. I always thought is was a benefit to be on the road during holiday season this includes all sports Football, B-Ball etc.
I think my sons and I will be there for all three games. Maybe not the Rags as the prices are insane, but the other two are usually cheap.
based on trade rumours
Who would trade Dylan Holloway for Carey Price 50% retained. So $5.25 AVV ?
I am insulted that you would even ask this question.
I just threw up in my mouth.
Koski for 50% Price if he wins Canada gold
No. Anyone who would make such a trade would deserve to be fired on the spot for cause.
No chance you make that trade using Holloway. Maybe for Koski, a 2nd/3rd and a B prospect.
It is very difficult to establish Price’s true value. He comes with a lot of risk (including the fact that he needed to take an in-season leave of absence). But he did almost single-handedly bring a mediocre Habs team to the Cup Final. (Obviously Weber was huge too.)
The year before, 12th-place Montreal knocked off 5th-place Pittsburgh in the play-ins. Pittsburgh was very displeased at having play in the play-ins, because they (like everyone else in the league) feared Carey Price.
Over the past 4 years, Price has been league average in the regular season, but .930 in the playoffs.
Honest question. Suppose Price were a free agent. What would you sign him to? Grubauer, Binnington, and Markstrom are all around $6M for another 5 years. Would that be unreasonable for Price? Maybe it would, given Price’s age. But which one of those four would I want for the playoffs this year? I’d probably take Price over any of them.
I heard Gregor talk about that on the show this morning but I just want to clarify something, that isn’t based on “rumours”, its based on “speculation”.
Jeff Gorton would.
Some good points LT and all
I’m on the side that if the Oilers can’t get the 5v5 sorted, that’s on the coaches. They can’t go far if they can’t play a disciplined structure, nobody can.
If it’s because the players won’t listen, that’s a coaching and GM problem. The biggest part of the job is reigning in the stars. They can do very well for stretches and then it tanks
Holland brought in two big fast excellent cycle types, and JP has emerged, that gave the coaches a lot more to work with.
The D is the most mobile puck moving group it has been in years
40 games and if it’s not stable, more tears
I like Woody, but does he have the interpersonal and motivational chops? Because IMO that is what needs to be better
Everybody on board and working every game. And actually showing up when the game starts
I think Tipp is a great guy, but may be too mellow for this group. A lot of the most successful coaches are pretty firey.
There is a lot of talk from the team about how things should be, but it doesn’t get done. Who can convince the players, and get them to do it, about how they have to play to reach their goals? They have the two learning fails under their belts, what more does it take?
I think he could also get a little more heated toward the refs. Not Torts Mass bonkers but there have been a lot of games that warranted some freak out
I’m not sure where people are getting the “fire Tippett” from. I’ve seen a lot of “he’d better win a playoff round”, but that’s understandable. I can only think it’s coming from less reputable blogs than LT’s fine place. If so, it is to be discounted, not to be brought in here to get angry over.
It’s weird, I’m listening to the show this morning and the guy who just did a pretty good character assassination on Marc Bergevin. “He’s a defenseman who surrounded himself with other defensmen and he loves himself”, I believe was said.
Let’s get some context here – is firing Tippett with his record this year beyond the realm of possibilty, given that a GM that just took his team to the Cup final, then started the season losing two of his best players was fired? Are we forgetting how we got Eakins? Are we forgetting Bergevin fired his coach earlier last season?
As much as I would like to give Woodcroft his chance with us, Tippett is doing well this year. I find him to be stolid and lacking inspiration when the chips are down, yet he was brought in to bring stability to a beleaguered team. Well, he’s done that now.
I guess the question we should ask ourselves is: Do we think we will win a Cup with Tippett? If the answer is “No”, then why wait?
I would give Tippett one more playoff series. I think you have to. I do feel it’s the Last Chance Saloon though.
It comes from here and from stats
The Oilers are losing the Corsi battle. Or more sophisticated losing the HDSC battle
They are winning, but have the two hottest players in the league. But stats and Vic Ferrari tell us that despite how it looks this will lead nowhere good as the sample size grows, and especially when the rules change all of the sudden in April or whenever.
It would be a shock if a change happened. I feel preemptive about the coming failure (if this isn’t sorted) and don’t have faith it will be fixed. 2.25 years in and it’s the same old in the most important game state.
A bigger problem is that other than Woody who can Holland bring in?
We wait.
No way Tippett isn’t given one more crack at the playoffs. I think a lot of the angst on Tippett is because of the way Calgary’s playing. Calgary is in full mode playoff hockey and as of today would probably have the smart money on them to beat us.
I don’t have the chops to say this, so take it as standard fare for the comment section:
Tip is good at managing players and systems, but not at managing games. Seems he gets outcoached every time a contest requires in-game adjustments. He’s like the anti- Mac T.
That’s just my sense of things.
I do like Tippett, but I feel that an early exit from the postseason will equal his departure. I think there is a reason why he hasn’t signed an extension yet, and honestly, it may be mutual when the time comes. Just seems strange that they wouldn’t have inked even a year or two extension if the die was already cast.
I did a quick walkabout of some of the ex-Oilers this morning and their numbers.
Did you know that Adam Larsson has close to 30 more 5v5 minutes of ice time than any other Kraken player? His possession numbers are all south of 50%, which is what you sort of expect, but the actual goal numbers are staggering. 14-26! An absolutely abysmal on-ice save % of 88.57 will do that to you.
Ethan Bear has been excellent, as expected. I totally missed that he tested positive for Covid last week. Now TDA and Pesce have it. Canes could go into a dip here.
In Chicago, where no one is good, Khaira and Jones are both struggling. Khaira always had poor possession numbers here. That’s the case in Chicago too. His 5v5 GF-GA is a quiet 3-4 though, which isn’t horrible, especially compared to his teammates.
Jones is really struggling though. I noticed he got healthy scratched the other night for Wyatt Kalynuk. With an xGF% of 32.06, it may be hard for him to stay in the lineup. I think that injury he suffered late in camp really derailed him.
James Neal is averaging close to 12 minutes a night, and has only 2 goals in 17 GP, buuuut, his possession numbers are surprisingly pretty good. Unfortunately, I think he is set to hit the LTIR today.
Overall, seems like a pretty mixed bag. Bear is excelling, Larsson is getting stabbed in the back by goaltending, Jones is really struggling, and Khaira/Neal look identical to their Oiler’ forms.
Question. If we buy out a player and still owe him for years to come and he goes on LTIR, do we gat any relief from that?
That would be a nice loophole wouldn’t it? However, that Neal was able to get another contract is independent of the buyout. Any player bought out may never sign another contract and the buyout team carries the $$. So nothing that happens to the player after a buyout impacts the buyout dollars.
Darn!
if I remember correctly, Tippet’s contract is up at the end of this year. If that is the case, all options are on the table including Tip retiring.
If we lose to Calgary and they go on to win the cup does anyone actually believe that Tippett will not be asked to walk away in a dignified manner.
Speak no evil lest it appear!
There is a reasonable chance that Tippett may indeed not want to come back to coach again.
From various accounts, he is quite a busy guy with business ventures, etc.
That’s just pure speculation though – who knows where his mind is at – we just know that he doesn’t need the money nor something to take up his time.
At the same time, I presume the allure of the Stanley Cup is strong.
Lets say the Oilers make it to the conference finals and lose to Minny or Colorado in 6 games – I presume he would want to come back and “see it through)” but who knows.
Rasmus Sandin is better than Bear.
Pierre Engvall is pretty good. 7th round pick, that is a development success story.
Trevor Moore was undrafted, traded for Campbell, and played 143 NHL games. That’s a success story.
The Canucks get no credit for Dahlen, he went home to Sweden and became a player. The Canucks are the team that looks bad here.
Yamamoto didn’t play that much in the AHL, hard to say he was developed there.
Bear and Jones are the development success stories for the Oilers, and they gave away Jones for nothing.
Benson should also be a success story, but will he get a chance.
Keith >>> Caleb Jones
That doesn’t mean the trade was good, in particular given cap ramifications, but Keith over Jones makes the Oilers are better team right now, end stop.
That’s an opinion, of course, not a fact – but I don’t think it should be controversial, even with Keith being up and down.
Caleb Jones, while hurt most of the season, in his four games has not been good – not at all. Those four games also came after the coaching change (i believe) and the Hawks on an upswing with a much “better” defensive structure.
Although I do like to yell, I also don’t think Holland is the type to fire Tippett during a successful season, nor one to hire an inexperienced head coach. I would just note it’s worked three times before in the last 10 years (St.Louis and Pittsburg x2, while hiring their AHL coach no less).
If Tippett can stick with the balanced lines, I think we could see better 5×5 results soon. However, Holland knows the expectations, so I don’t think Tippett survives another first round exit. In that case, I’m expecting Babcock.
How many teams in the last 10 years fired their coach then didn’t win the cup?
I ask that while agreeing the 5v5 game needs to improve to sustain a long playoff run.
Maybe they could make Woodcroft assistant to the head coach?
He’s been there, done that. He is probably looking for an NHL head coaching opportunity first.
He’s already been that before, he was Mclellan’s Associate coach for a long time.
Tippett has the Oilers with a sensational .750 record but it’s time to replace him as soon as possible? What a waste of time these fans are.
Like Morlocks from the 1960 Time Machine movie lol
Every team that wins the cup is a top 5×5 team. The Oilers have not managed this since MacT was coach. With the horses Tippett is running with, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect better in the most important game state.
Not always, Pittsburgh’s second cup and the Capitals cup winning season had pretty bad 5V5 Corsi numbers.
Ah, but the Capitals had an elite PP player in Ovechkin. The Oilers can’t hope to have anyone as good as him as part of their powerplay.
Oh wait.
I’m going to use Corsi For % for this exercise and go back an arbitrary 10 years of cup winners.
2011-12 = LA Kings (second in reg season CF% – Detroit were top)
2013 = Chicago (fourth in reg season CF% – LA top)
2013-14 = LA Kings (first in reg season CF%)
2014-15 = Chicago (second in reg season CF% – LA top)
2015-16 = Pittsburgh (second in reg season CF% – LA top)
2016-17 = Pittsburgh (sixteenth in reg season CF% – LA top)
2017-18 = Washington (twenty-fourth in reg season CF% – Carolina top ((LA 16th)))
2018-19 = St Louis (tenth in reg season CF% – San Jose top)
2019-20 = Tampa Bay (fifth in reg season CF% – Vegas top)
2020-21 = Tampa Bay (ninth in reg season CF% – Colorado top, by miles)
My main take away from this is that the LA Kings were as monstrous as I remember them being.
And secondly, small sample size of only 1/4 of a season and all that, but here’s the current top 10 teams, which I guess is where your likely Stanley Cup winner will come from:
Florida
Carolina
Calgary
Boston
Toronto
Pittsburgh
Colorado
Minnesota
Winnipeg
Tampa Bay
BONUS NUMBER 11 – It’s LA.
The Oilers are at 15 – so, within the 16th and 24th place spots that 2016-17 Pittsburgh and 2017-18 Washington won from. So there’s a chance 😀 Crucially we’re at 50.56%, which I guess is good as it’s above 50%. And to reiterate, we’re at 15, which is above the half way mark in the league, which if you’re a glass half full type makes us a top 5×5 team. Go us. STANLEY CUP!
Really LA should have won 6 Cups in a row is the main takeaway from that.
hey LT….not one word about “Them Riders “…..whatsup Man ?
Maybe check back if they win the Grey Cup
I`ll bet Mrs. Lowetide is still happy dancing and LT is pissed.
I’d have Mason marchment close to that top 5 group.
Jay Woodcroft Associate Coach?
I was thinking that too – I don’t think Woodcroft has had that position before, so he may view that as a stepping stone to an NHL head coaching job.
The thing is, I think people are pretty happy with the coaches under Tippett – they run things like the special teams – it’s the things that are typically the head coach’s job, like EV play and line matching, that I think folks have a problem with.
Great remember of Holland’s commitment to stability LT.
I do think there would be on opening for reassessment if the Oilers fail to make it out of the first round again this year, but agree it’s unlikely.
I don’t know, LT. If Tippett can’t get this team past the 1st round this spring I think his job is in jeopardy.
Absolutely.
Agreed. Also, Tip’s contract is over after this year. Holland could simply not re-sign, no firing necessary. Thank Tip for all he has done for the team and move on.
Good point, I had forgotten that.
The thing about the coaching is all the coaches are on the same page. It makes for moe prepared players when they all play the same structure
Which will hurt more.
Jay Woodcroft not coaching the Edmonton Oilers.
Or Jay Woodcroft not coaching the Bakersfield Condors.
All aboard Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
Ay, ay, ay, ay, ay, ay, ay
Could Holland really justify keeping Tippett if they don’t win in the playoffs? I’d argue one series win is the bare minimum required for Tippett to stay on.
He got schooled by the Hawks and the Jets in consecutive years.
“Any change in direction now will involve reassessing, retooling and a period of transition. “
Fully loaded diesel locomotives don’t stop on a dime.
Though Holland is a very experienced GM, I don’t think he’ll have the final say as to whether Tippett stays in that type of scenario. If there was a 1st round exit, and McDavid or Draisaitl made it clear they felt the team couldn’t win with him at the helm, then Holland’s hand would be forced in my opinion.
Did he really get schooled? It seemed to me that the Oilers (especially the goaltenders) failed to show up against Chicago. Against Winnipeg, he just came up against refs who wouldnt make a call plus all-world goaltending
The goalie juggling in Chicago series didn’t look good.
The knee jerk blender of lines in Winnipeg where they outplayed but got goalied also poor tactically imo.
I’d say any success mikko ends up having this year is more in spite of tippet than because of him.
Smith can do no wrong if there is any falter in mikko’s game straight to the gulag.
If Smith could do no wrong in Tippett’s eyes, how, do you explain Tippett pulling Smith
after 26 minutes in the Chicago series and running the rest it with Koskinen despite the fact that Koskinen had a .840 save percentage in the game 3 loss?
I am not defending Tippett’s actual goalie choices, but I believe he attempts to make rational decisions. His rationale may end up being wrong at times, but its not based on idiotic biases.
So, just to be clear, we lost those two series because of the coach?
I respectfully disagree and feel it was more to do with the supporting cast, our big guns not playing 200ft hockey, and certainly the referees did nothing to favour Edmonton. Having the opportunity to display the coaches power play that led the league surely would have helped.
I suppose the only thing the “coach did” was play 2 lines for 2OT’s in the Jets series. Win, and you rest and move on, lose and you get 4 months of rest. It was surprising at the time, think his hands were tied. We now have 3 lines the coach can trust and I suspect we get a different outcome with the current roster in double OT, but the referees will also have a say.
Poor Buffalo indeed.
Seriously, stop equivocating and tell us how you really feel about Ethan Bear 🙂
Bear over Demko is a bold take indeed
Yeah that’s not even close even with Demko struggles this year
I believe you are correct. Opportunity abounds for Jay Woodcroft; And, history, timing, and money would suggest that he will leave the streets of Bakersfield for the bright lights of some big city.
If proper succession planning was a part of the NHL paradigm, some compromise would be found to keep Jay in the fold. A commitment to him after some combination of 2 years. 1 more in Bako and 1 getting his feet wet as an assistant to Tippett.
But as you indicate it’s almost certainly not going to happen.
Here’s the post introducing Tippett on the blog, and some interesting comments. https://lowetide.ca/2018/08/01/jay-versus-the-volcano/
The comments about Woodcroft are interesting.
But this one stood out to me.
“Ethan Bear did some nice things but the club drafts Evan Bouchard and now things change a little. You never know. Best to wait and see how things turn out.”
#Carnac the Magnificent
I remember that thread well. The question still remains though…
Does Woodcroft have enough AHL bus rides to become an NHL head coach??
He does and he will.
“Maybe everything will be fine. Some people are prodigies and don’t need 10000 hours of experience.”
Turns out Jay really is #BoyWondercroft.
As much as I don’t want to agree with you LT, I’m afraid you’re probably right regarding Woodcroft. That one is going to sting when it does finally happen but the organization can’t stand in the way of someone who has paid their dues as much as Woodcroft has.
My worry at that point would lean toward the rest of his coaching staff as I would hope the Oilers could retain Manson and Houle, perhaps promote from within.
This league has become awfully funny in the way certain teams are intent on making wholesale changes lately. I would imagine that trend will continue in the future so I guess there are always possibilities that someone like Playfair might get poached or pick your scenario.
A subdivision of Oilers fans opines about various coaches that the team can consider. So here is my choice for the one that got away:
Peter Laviolette easily defeated MacT in game 7 of THAT final.
Today Laviolette’s latest new team leads the NHL.
Tippett is fine. Tippett’s not to blame for Covid. Nor is Tippett to blame for B.C. flooding.
Tippet is a decent if not inspired NHL hockey coach, as in bona fide.
FFS look at Boston in 1971 they barely had a coach in Tom Johnson.
Provided the Oilers can ice a competent team, Tippett is going to get the job done.
Easily??? Really
Oilers were down 2-1 if I recall and showed little creativity, in the 3rd period, so yes.
Pisani did hit the post with 4 minutes left.
I liked the Woodcroft hire when it happened
this was not a guy that was going to sacrifice development for wins to move into a nhl job
Truth be told, Woody does have alot of Todd McLellan in him and he definitely relies on his veterans.
Griffith, Cracknell, Malone, Esposito, etc. are heavily relied upon and get prime 5 on 5 and special team minutes over the likes of Lavoie, etc (and, previously, over the likes of Maksimov, etc.)
Vinny Deharnais, as an AHL veteran, is relied upon over the likes of Kesselring and Kemp.
Don’t get me wrong, I like Jay W., but much of the “team success” comes from his reliance on veterans in key situations, etc.