Ten Years After

by Lowetide
Photo by Rob Ferguson

I was beyond convinced that the Oilers top-20 prospect list in December 2010 was bound for glory. In the summary for the top-20 review, I wrote “this is the strongest group of Oiler prospects I can recall. The 79-81 Oilers top 20 would have been better but after that this group must be the best.”

Although it didn’t work out as hoped, the best in the group (Devan Dubnyk, Jeff Petry, Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle) enjoyed strong careers and most are still contributing to NHL teams. Edmonton didn’t get as much use from these men as you would think, owing to constant changes in coaching and management.

The 2020 Oilers top-20 has played 1.5 seasons since I ranked them, I wonder they compare to the 2010 group 29 games into the 2011-12 season? Let’s have a look.

THE ATHLETIC!

OILERS TOP-20 FOR 2010 AFTER 29 GAMES IN 2011-12

To repeat, this is the 2010 list (top 20, although 12 played in the NHL) including the 2010-11 season in full and the first 29 games of 2011-12. It’s amazing how many players on this list were trending downward, and how many would be traded with many miles of value left.

Magnus Paajarvi had 15-19-34 as a rookie in 2010-11, but in the first half of 2011-12 he was playing with Eric Belanger a lot and the points (0.68 points-per-60 at five-on-five) weren’t flowing as they had in the year previous. He played in 25 of 29 games, going 0-3-3.

In the first 29 games, he scored zero goals, trailing wingers Ryan Smyth (12), Eberle (11), Ryan Jones (9), Hall (7), Ales Hemsky (3) plus Lennart Petrell and Ben Eager (two each). Coach Tom Renney would later admit he lost him trying to find a slot for No. 1 overall selection Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Paajarvi never had a season close to his rookie campaign.

Theo Peckham was having a blessed season, his five-on-five on ice goal differential (20-13 through 29 games) ran counter to his shot differential (44.8 percent) for the season. No one knew, but Peckham’s NHL career was almost over 29 games into the 2011-12 season. In the final months, his fading five-on-five goal count (10-19) would severely damage his final (30-32) tally for the year.

Meanwhile, Hall, Eberle, Petry and Dubnyk could have formed part of the nucleus of a contender, if all hadn’t been sent away so soon. The original line about ‘strongest group of prospects I can recall’ remains true. I think the Oilers could have pulled far more value from those names with stable management and coaching. Credit to Craig MacTavish for getting David Perron in trade for Paajarvi.

OILERS TOP-20 FOR 2020 AFTER 29 GAMES IN 2021-22

The Oilers don’t push the kids like they used to but there’s also less talent on the 2020 list. I will say Bouchard should have a strong career and Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway and others will make their mark.

If the Oilers are able to retain the Bouchards, Brobergs and Holloways for a long period, and we’ll include Jesse Puljujarvi and Kailer Yamamoto in the group, then replacing a large portion of the roster every summer will eventually become a thing of the past.

Imagine a building team dealing Devan Dubnyk (2014), Jeff Petry (2015), Taylor Hall (2016) and Jordan Eberle (2017) while also building for the playoffs. Kind of nuts.

CHL DRAFT-YEAR POINTS PER GAME (OILERS FORWARDS PICKS)

  1. Connor McDavid (OHL) age 17: 47 games, 44-76-120 (2.55)
  2. Leon Draisaitl (WHL) age 17: 64 games, 38-67-105 (1.64)
  3. Kailer Yamamoto (WHL) age 17: 65 games, 42-57-99 (1.52)
  4. Xavier Bourgault (QMJHL) age 17: 29 games, 20-20-40 (1.38)
  5. Raphael Lavoie (QMJHL) age 17: 62 games, 32-41-73 (1.18)
  6. Tyler Tullio (OHL) age 17: 62 games, 27-39-66 (1.06)
  7. Ryan McLeod (OHL) age 17: 68 games, 26-44-70 (1.03)
  8. Tyler Benson (WHL) age 17: 30 games, 9-19-28 (0.93)
  9. Jake Chiasson (WHL) age 17: 23 games, 9-11-20 (.870)
  10. Kirill Maksimov (OHL) age 17: 66 games, 21-17-38 (0.58)

Bourgault will be the major player to watch at this year’s World Juniors, defenseman Luca Munzenberger will also line up for Germany at the tournament. Important to remember this young man played on a feature line in the warmup game but is not a feature player for Canada at this tournament. Please align your expectations accordingly, I saw several “he can’t even stay on the top line for an entire game” tweets, an extreme viewpoint and one that fails to understand the nature of this tournament. The WJ’s is the ultimate small sample tournament, and these kids are tossed around by the whim of the coach and circumstance. Observe the player, make mental notes, but sweeping conclusions from this tournament are unwise.

PAAJARVI-YAMAMOTO

I hesitate to bring it up, because the connection is tenuous at best, but I’m fascinated by the similarities and differences between the NHL entries of Magnus Paajarvi and Kailer Yamamoto.

Paajarvi didn’t have a great shot and he didn’t drive to the net like McDavid, so scoring goals became an issue after his first season. He had a poor shooting percentage as a rookie (8.3) but that was better than his career number (7.9) and he shot the puck 180 times in year one.

Yamamoto has a nice release and a high shooting percentage (career 14 percent) but doesn’t shoot often. He had an enormous 25 percent shooting percentage in his 2019-20 campaign, scoring 11 goals on 44 shots. Since then, he has scored 13 goals on 99 shots and that’s a good shooting percentage. The problem is that it took him 81 games to get those 99 shots. KY won’t survive in the NHL on a skill line with those totals.

Renney had Magnum PS with Sam Gagner and Linus Omark in year one, I can hear sphincters tightening all over the world when thinking of that trio of wily two-way types on one line. MP was a sound positional player on the line, but the other two were Mr. Magoo (Sam Gagner was NOT a center) and the line was outscored 9-15 in 215 minutes. The next year, they put him with Eric Belanger and the line went 3-3 in 164 minutes, basically killing the offense. The Oilers ran Shawn Horcoff, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Sam Gagner and Belanger at center that season, but there were in fact at least six wingers who were more productive. I would have moved Ryan Jones down, but it was not to be and Paajarvi’s die was cast.

I mention this because Dave Tippett is often mentioned as a coach who has little patience with youth. I would argue that his patience with Yamamoto may well be unprecedented in Oilers history.

I think the reason that people are down on Tippett’s development of youth is the Ethan Bear outcome. I expect the coach (and possibly GM) felt that Bear and Evan Bouchard on the same defense would be too much youth and not enough size/truculence.

This is not something I agree with, the best plan is to play your six best options no matter the style. Bear had a couple of poor moments in that playoff game, but is destined to have a fine career.

However, the Bear situation, no matter how badly handled, doesn’t inform the Yamamoto experience. I think the Oilers made a mistake on Bear, and time will answer.

Yamamoto might be a different mistake, a mistake of inaction, if the current trend continues. I’m always onside with giving lots of leeway for young offensive talent, but the Oilers may be costing themselves by running KY for this many games and so few shots on goal. Time will tell.

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Munny 2.0

Colby’s Birthday today. May you RIP, young soul.

SKOilerFan

Most are too quick to slot players line 1 to 4 before every game.
How about just getting players more ice time if they are having a good game? Maybe Some incentive to perform each game?
Player agents seem to have way too much input in who is playing where and with who. Too many promises, especially in Edmonton , not a prime destination. There’s plenty of evidence of this which contradicts the priority of winning hockey games.

jp

Too bad about Bourgault. I don’t think he was even out there for the final anthem (not certain though). Hopefully it’s not serious and he’s alright for next game.

London Jon

Bourgault down the tunnel after a big hit. Holding shoulder or a elbow

flea

A rite of passage for an Oiler – shoulder surgery. Silver lining being in Edmonton is maybe the Oilers training staff can look at him if it’s serious.

jp

I wondered if it could be collar bone? It didn’t look like a play that would injure a shoulder.

flea

Either way, shame if his tourney is done.

jp

Yup, we’ll see..

OriginalPouzar

Nuge mentioned that he was a bit sick but like a head cold and that he’s played through worse illnesses.

OriginalPouzar

Tip says he had no symptoms – would have never known he had it.

OriginalPouzar

Tip says noone was really sick.

Says that Nurse/Lagesson/Jesse would be eligible for the 31 is tests goes properly.

If Smith gets through these three skates, he should be ready for Wed.

Munny 2.0

I’m cheering for Smith, but I don’t really want to see the Skinner audition end.

OriginalPouzar

McTavish and Power – wow!

who

Power looks great with the puck on his stick, but he played that 1st Czech goal like a Pee Wee.
2 on 1 and he never came close to stopping EITHER cross ice pass. He really never even attempted to block either pass.

who

Yep. They both look dominant.
Momentary brain fart for Power I guess.

OriginalPouzar

That play by Bedard, with Perfetti, doesn’t bode well for Bourgault’s ice time on that line….

OriginalPouzar

Condors’ game tomorrow postponed due to Covid issues with SJ.

Next game scheduled for Wed.

OriginalPouzar

Maybe the Russians should have taken their best players, like the Czeck’s who have three goals from players playing in the CHL.

Tarkus

The Bourg should get the primary assist on Power’s goal from the point after a wild scramble in front.

OriginalPouzar

Bourgault back to even as Power sifts one in from the point.

Bourgault made a strong play to the net but lost the puck….. it scrambled before getting back to Power so likely no assist.

Tarkus

Neighbours is one of two players in this tournament who shares a name with a Rolling Stones song.

The other is Russia’s Nikita Guslistov, or “N.G.”

OriginalPouzar

Bourgault picks up his first minus of the tournament.

Tarkus

And first penalty, upon which the Czechs capitalize to take a 2-1 lead.

OriginalPouzar

Bourgault does start the tournament with Wright and Perffeti – that bodes well is the game isn’t dominated by special teams.

OriginalPouzar

OK, so, Owen Power IS good with the puck on his stick….

OriginalPouzar

As I alluded to earlier:

Daniel Nugent-Bowman
@DNBsports
·
13m
Oilers coach Dave Tippett said there’s a possibility defenceman Duncan Keith (COVID protocol) will be able to play Wednesday in St. Louis (if that game is a go, of course.) Lots up in the air right now.

Sierra

Goaltending really letting the Russians down.

Fun game to watch. Good entertainment value.

OriginalPouzar

If I recall, didn’t Askarov start out poor at last year’s tournament as well?

It might be tough for Askarov, being the only right shot on the team.

Last edited 2 years ago by OriginalPouzar
Tarkus
Yukon Jerk
OriginalPouzar

Smith was also a full participant at practice today.

OriginalPouzar

So it doesn’t get lost within a thread below – Kass in protocol.

Its a win if there is only one new guy!

Yukon Jerk

That’s the sound of Godot raising his Festivus pole

OriginalPouzar

This is per Stauffer which I think means no new positives:

Foegele-McDavid-Hyman
RNH-Draisaitl-Yamamoto 
Shore-Ryan-Sceviour
Benson-McLeod-Turris
Perlini 

Koekkoek-Barrie
Broberg-Bouchard
Samorukov-Ceci

Smith
Koskinen 
Skinner

OriginalPouzar

Puljujarvi was added to protocol on the 18th which means he could/should be out on Tuesday so maybe able to play Wed.

Keith was added on the 17th so, same, he should be available for Wed.

Lagesson and Nurse were added on the 20th so would need to wait for the NYE game (again, subject to heading right back in to a game with maybe not even a skate depending on timing).

OriginalPouzar

Kass is in protocol – missed him.

godot10

Why does Stauffer list the 3rd pairing first? ! -).

Broberg and Bouchard. I am kind of excited for that.

Last edited 2 years ago by godot10
OriginalPouzar

I think it may be Keith/Ceci in any event with Sammy sent back down.

DevilsLettuce

Specs saying Yams is too small for bottom 6 so he must be top 6 is absolutely what you would expect to read from a out to lunch no effort reporter. His math is dumb + no effort = success, he must get along great with Uncle HaHa.

Why Specs small brain takes are given any light of day is beyond me.

Leave Yams in the top 6 and drop Hyman to the 3rd line..

How is the rest of the squad feeling watching Yams babysat and awarded cupcakes while they got to just make things happen with limited or next to no opportunity..

Hyman has more assists then Yamamoto has points in 3 less games played.. Please Specs, improve or find a hockey market like Arizona to apply your craft.

When this team comes back to play, Yams should be stapled to the bottom 6 and either plays his way up or he is what he is.

Trading Yams will not be like a Ebs or Hall move, he’s closer to Ryan Spooner then either or those players. So please save the bs about it being a step back if he’s included in a hockey trade, there’s alot of players that can put up 7 points in 29 games playing along side Leon.

Yukon Jerk

Not in disagreement with your main premise,
Spooner & Strome were about as tough as whipped cream cheese compared to Yammo’s grit & forechecking.
The only pucks I remember Spooner turning over were to the other team

OriginalPouzar

I don’t agree at all with Spec on Yamamoto not being able to play in the bottom six.

I also see some validity to his proposed lineup.

This isn’t a suggestion that Yamamoto > Hyman, its a proposition for more balance through the lines.

Munny 2.0

Spec is, and always has been, awful.

I doubt the squad is harboring resentment against Yams though.

Tarkus

Munzenberger named Germany’s player of the game.

OriginalPouzar

> 1 goal
> 3 shots
> 22:47 TOI

VanIsleOil

He likes playing on home ice…:)

leadfarmer

FFS!!! if you play 17 min a night YOU ARE NOT a top pairing or top 4 defenseman.

Bling

Right, and because Barrie and Keith play 20 min with 40 something goal shares they are top 4 D?

Is there any set of facts that will convince you the off season is botched? I don’t think so.

Give me players who can win their minutes, not a bunch of guys Tipp feels better about losing with.

leadfarmer

Barrie is a forward playing D and Keith is a Broberg stop gap
doesn’t mean having another teams 6th in Kulikov d or guy that’s attached at the hip to a master turd polisher is a great player
happy for them having pretty good season
but would not spend a top prospect on either one

Bling

Kulikov was good last year and is better than a 6th D this year, a lot better.

Agree PB is the future, but Holland acquired Keith with the idea that he could help win. That is not the case.

Bling

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/3-bold-oilers-predictions-2022-nugent-hopkins-hyman-move-depth-roles/

The skids are being greased for Yamamoto. Holland’s solution, again, is to trade away cost controlled talent at its nadir. You could see Yamo and Samorukov gone this deadline. Woof.

This management troupe is grossly incompetent. Would be refreshing if Holland or Tipp took responsibility, instead they will burn the ship down.

I’m finding it harder and harder to cheer for them.

leadfarmer

It all depends who they acquire with those assets, No??

DevilsLettuce

Nah it’s easier to proclaim the sky is falling if Yams was included in a hockey trade.

Bling

The article suggests Mason Appleton or Soucy for Yamo. Not my idea of a win, but Holland is a terrible GM who doesn’t want to grind guys.

Sierra

Why be stressed by any article predicting that RNH and Hyman will be the 3rd line and the top 2 lines will be staffed with a combination of JP, Foegele, Yamo, Benson and Perlini?

OriginalPouzar

So we are continuing to asses Holland based on media predictions and speculation?

Sierra

Seems that way doesn’t it.

Bling

Not judging him on media speculation, I can judge him on his record and still give him a well deserved F.

OriginalPouzar

Sure you can but, in this thread, you posted an article from Sportsnet predicting what Holland will do and then started talking about his incompetence with respect thereto.

Bling

Soucy is a name mentioned by Bob and Spec. The whole leaking of names thing has happened before.

IIRC, you were offering the same defence of Keith before the trade was made.

The Oilers are constantly sniffing in the wrong places. That’s my opinion and it’s reflected in playoff series won, goal differential, etc.

OriginalPouzar

OK, so you are assessing Holland based off of the SN piece.

Harpers Hair
Bling

Every mention of Ethan Bear on this blog seems to go off like a stick of dynamite.

Some numbers at EV (TOI, FF%, GF%):

Caleb Jones. 136, 47, 67.
Ethan Bear. 315, 55, 64.
Duncan Keith. 349, 49, 42.
Tyson Barrie. 447, 44, 48.

That everyone had an opinion about the moves on defence in the summer is wonderful, fine, and dandy.

Now, time has elapsed, the range of possibilities has flattened, and Schroedinger’s equation has collapsed. Before proceeding I want to pledge my undying and unflailing respect for Duncan Keith. I want to remind everyone that he made the ultimate sacrifice in moving to Edmonton to see his son, and even got vaccinated against the plague.

I was wrong about Keith being completely done, but he has not been a substantive top 4 upgrade. Agreed?Barrie is Barrie. Both are better suited to bottom pair duties, agreed?

A massive amount of cap has been added, the D is worse. The bottom six, despite having added a quality player in Foegele, is hot garbage because, as WG stated, the D is not helping.

To all those who whispered sweet little lies about Bear and Jones, you ought to now replace those with sweet little lies about Keith and Barrie. Because in this moment, as was the case in past moments, the numbers are against you.

Holland and Tippett completely destroyed the D last off season, and by the grace of Evan Bouchard it hasn’t been Katrina. But a lesser storm still wreaks havoc, and this team is sinking.

As old fictions die — Bear can’t skate, certain corners are targeted, etc — new ones emerge — Yamamoto is a problem, Niemelainen renders Samorukov trade bait, etc. And on we go.

LT, as per usual, has nailed it above. Play your best D. Always. If they had done that, if they had believed that, this current mess doesn’t exist.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

I agree with the sentiment but I am not sure what those numbers really tell us? Obviously, Bear will have great raw FF% and GF% as he plays on a great team.

Here is an assortment of D stats from the last two seasons. Nothing really stands out.

Last season, w/o McD or Drai:

Bear: toi 176:25 FF% 43.72 GF% 36.36 (4-7)

Barrie: toi 219:28 FF% 48.39 GF% 31.82 (7-15)

Jones: toi 90:37 FF% 45.79 GF% 40 (2-3)

This season w/o McD or Drai:

Ceci (w/o Keith): toi 74:27 FF% 53.61 GF% 40 (2-3)

Keith & Ceci: toi 148:21 FF% 43.89. GF% 40 (6-9)

Barrie toi 160:10 FF% 41.95 GF% 38.46 (5-8)

Note: Keith has only played 20 minutes without Ceci so I did not include those numbers.

Bling

I agree. Yet why is it Keith is hailed as a top 4 solution, Barrie rewarded/considered a core player, and Bear/Jones labelled as struggling young players?

Narrative, laziness, and bias.

It’s one thing for Spector and Leavins to make up campfire stories; quite another for Holland and Tippett to fall for them.

For all the extra cap hit Keith+Barrie accrue, shouldn’t they move the needle more? Why do the Oilers make so many bad decisions?

Spec is a coward: he’ll go after Jones/Yamo/Bear but will he ever say ill about Keith? Nope.

It’s a huge double standard. The only guys poking through the BS are LT, JW, and DNB.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

For the record, I agree that the Bear and Jones trades were putrid.

Last edited 2 years ago by Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve
jp

To add TOI/game, and last years numbers for context.

20-21 TOI/game, 5v5 FF% and GF%
Caleb Jones. 13:36, 49, 38
Ethan Bear. 17:57, 51, 46
Duncan Keith. 23:21 45, 44
Tyson Barrie. 21:23, 50, 52

21-22 TOI/game, 5v5 FF% and GF%
Caleb Jones. 14:51, 49, 67
Ethan Bear. 16:59, 56, 64
Duncan Keith. 20:08, 50, 42
Tyson Barrie. 19:31, 47, 48

There’s clearly an argument here, but I strongly disagree that the answers are clear cut.

Bling

I agree there’s more to this, but when you start factoring in cap hit Keith/Barrie just don’t move the needle enough to justify the cash.

Keith was a 44 goal share last year playing top pair and is 42 goal share this year playing with Ceci. It’s a pattern with him now.

If he doesn’t retire, how is he going to look next season? Will he be any better than Broberg?

I’m not saying Jones is perfect, but he is cheap. Bear is a substantial player who is cost-controlled.

TOI means something if the coaches have a clue, but Tippett’s opinion means not much.

What does it say about Tippett that Keith has a 42 goal share and he plays 20 minutes a game?

I’ll give Tippett this: he made his bed, and he is happily sleeping in it, results be damned.

jp

We’ve been through this more than once before.

You know that Keith’s GF% last year was basically team average (+0.81 rel). Bear’s this year is the same (-1.52 rel). Massive difference in team context though, which you’ve consistently ignored.

Bear, Jones and Barrie played on the same team last season with GF%s of 46, 38 and 52 respectively, but Bear >> Barrie apparently.

I posted last years numbers because much of what you’re using to show players good/bad this season shows quite a different result last season.

Anyway, we disagree on an awful lot. I don’t expect we’ll reach common ground any time soon.

Last edited 2 years ago by jp
Bling

Keith struggled on the first pair last season and is struggling on the second pair this season with Ceci. He can move the puck nicely but he’s not the defender he once was. He’s 38. I think the book is written on him. He is a third pair guy, not more than that. Is two seasons not enough of a sample size?

I’m not sure what you mean by performance relative to team. If 97 plays on a team with a 65 goal share and he’s at 64, to me that means nothing.

I’m clear and always have been: DK is not top 4 caliber. Do you think he is?

With respect to Barrie/Bear/Jones, let’s not forget that Bear and Jones were excellent two years ago. Tipp wouldn’t match lines but he would sub in Bear on the top pair when they needed a stop. Barrie’s D sucks and it turns out playing with Nurse and 29/97 helps.

In any case, the guys you are defending cost more, haven’t made the team better, by eye are worse, and have poor goal shares. The guys out the door, btw, still have some upside to them.

I respect your take and agree that D are not always easy to asses on stats alone.

However, math said Keith was a bad bet and he has been. Math said Bear and Jones could be better and they are. My eyes said keep Bear and Jones, and so far I have been vindicated.

I respect your takes. I don’t think there is a common ground here, if you are defending Keith and Barrie.

jp

I’m not sure what you mean by performance relative to team. If 97 plays on a team with a 65 goal share and he’s at 64, to me that means nothing.

Petry and Klefbom are two closer examples of this. Both players played lots for poor Oilers teams and both had multiple seasons worse than Keith last year.

I’m clear and always have been: DK is not top 4 caliber. Do you think he is?

I still do, yes.

With respect to Barrie/Bear/Jones, let’s not forget that Bear and Jones were excellent two years ago. 

I think Bear is a good defenseman. He isn’t a 1st pair D as you’ve called him but I’m comfortable calling him a top 4.

Jones for me is a tweener with potential to become more. But he couldn’t stay in the lineup when given the chance with the Oilers and hasn’t been a clear top 6 so far with a poor Hawks team.

Barrie has and continues to play more minutes than Bear. This is across multiple teams and coaches, and he’s most often on the right side of the goal differential (even last season he had better GF% results than Bear and better results with Nurse).

Barrie is more expensive (for now) and is a poor defender so I’d have been fine keeping Bear over Barrie. I also don’t hate the Bear out, Barrie and Foegele in transaction. Objectively though, I don’t see how anyone can claim Bear >> Barrie as an NHLer today.

Ryan

Hey I agree with most of this and I’m on your side here Bing, but man that TOI/g for Bear is interesting. He’s currently a distant sixth.

My issue with Holland is that much of what he does is just plain inefficient. He’s not a modern thinker either. He believes more in the alchemy of making a team rather than simply stacking as many good players on a roster as efficiently as possible.

In an era where the smart teams (Colorado, Carolina, Toronto) cluster their players between 25 and 30, Holland hands out multi-year contracts to players over 30 like Ryan, Smith, and Turris.

For readers like Munny, there’s been a body of online published work on player aging curves for years (here, here, here, here, here, and here.) Others too.

Holland basically stated this summer what the Oilers needed were more “greybeards” and all of the over 30 players he went out and acquired are ineffective and generally poor use of the cap.

After years of wholly inept management, fans of the Oilers want to see some Tulsky or Sprigings like decision making (winning a trade by identifying talent on another team, signing competent bottom six players, etc).

Holland mixes too many bad moves (Keith trade, AA trade, signing Kassian/Ryan/Turris) with not enough decent moves (signing Ceci). The net effect is sort of having the team tread water without getting any better.

We see this in WG’s analysis of the bottom six which is worse than during the Tambellini era. That’s something.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

I think there needs to be some balance of experience and prime years in the cluster at value. We need more Charas, Cullens and Recchis and fewer of the Kassians, Turris’ and Ryans of the league (or, as you essentially say, at least not on multi-year retirement contracts that don’t come at a discount).

That the leadership core asked for more experience in last season’s exit interviews has to carry some weight. Thing is, pro scouting has to be able to identify the talent, and Old Dutch needs to be able to seal the deal with the right guys.

Looking back at the year that COL loaded up for a Cup run and were crowned as victors in the preseason when they added Kariya and Selanne, then flopped spectacularly goes to show how difficult is the balance in building a winning team. Luck plays a big role too.

YYCOil

What is a modern thinker? Should we include NJD? NYR? Arizona? Doesn’t Seattle have the biggest analytic staff? TML have been a disappointment.

Ryan

I don’t really know what’s going on in Arizona other than a rebuild and an epic stockpile of draft picks.

I liked the Rags when Gorton was running them, but haven’t been paying attention lately. I also don’t follow the New Jersey Dellows.

I don’t think Seattle has the biggest analytics staff. I thought it was smaller. It really also depends on how much the GM listens to them. They did a lot of seemingly non-analytics moves like stockpile Rickibox defensemen.

Last year I chronicled Joe Sprigins-Sakic. Obviously they’ve made so many astute trades that it’s hard for them because other GMs see them coming from a mile away now… The running joke is for GMs not to pick up the phone if Sakic is calling.

Tampa with Al Murray’s scouting has done an amazing job at the draft board.

Vegas is a smart org.

Tulsky’s ridiculously smart and the Canes are really well run.

I love what Bill Zito did running around creating value by buying low in the disappointment aisle.

US? The Oilers are the perpetual Pakleds.

https://theathletic.com/2789554/2021/08/25/2021-nhl-front-office-rankings-fans-weigh-in-on-every-team/

jp

It really also depends on how much the GM listens to them.

This is the thing I hate most in all this.

If you get to just explain away poor results from teams with analytics departments by saying “the GM must not have listened”, it totally neuters a real conversation.

Ryan

I am not giving them a pass by suggesting that the GM must not have listened. I’ll agree with that.

However, not many analytics models place heavy value on defensive d men, none in fact, so it would be interesting if their new analytics team came up with a model that did. In contrast, we do know that hockey men value these player types.

We also know that the Oilers had some smart analytics staff during the MacT and Chiarelli eras. Chiarelli let everyone go which presumably is indicative of both much he valued and listened to his analytics staff.

I don’t think anyone remotely competent at data science would be clamouring to sign Nikitin to a $9m contract over two years nor trading Hall for Larson.

We’ll never be privy to the degree to which a GM listens to his analytics team.

Holland doesn’t value analytics which is why he prefers the guide and record book, has one guy to print off canned analytics reports and presumably goes by gut instincts and likes to talk to people to get intel.

I’d imagine like anything it’s on a spectrum with some listening to larger degrees than others.

jp

I am not giving them a pass by suggesting that the GM must not have listened.

Alright. I have seen that pass used, on this site, to absolve questionable decisions by teams with known analytics people/departments.

It’s also been impossible (for me, on this site/comments section, at least) to get even a semblance of a list of teams that do use/trust analytics to have some clue what it’s really worth.

I think it’s probably useful, and will probably become more useful/important going forward, but we’re operating on belief at this point as far as I can tell. The real world examples we have include success as well as spectacular failures. In general it’s an oddly un-analytical way of promoting analytics as something important.

Munny 2.0

COL: Kadri, Helm, J. Johnson and both goalies all over 30. Sakic signed Landeskog on the cliff of your aging curves at 29 to an EIGHT year deal.
TOR: Simmons, Tavares, Spezza, Muzzin, Brodie, all over 30 and both goalies staring at your aging cliff at 29. Bet ya Campbell gets a deal with term, if the Leafs can afford him in the off-season.
CAR: Stepan, Staal, Cole, Smith and both goalies all 31+

So n = 5, 5 and 6 respectively. For the Oilers its 7, so all of one more than CAR, but two players, Turris and Sceviour hardly see the ice and are platooned. Don’t think anyone is complaining about Sceviour’s play. Most of those contracts are easily buried. Smith’s isn’t but if he’s not playing he’s on LTIR anyways and was a useful player last season. As were most of those players.

Why aren’t CAR, COL and TOR also following the guidance of these aging curves?

Last edited 2 years ago by Munny 2.0
Ryan

Helm is an inexpensive fourth liner and Jack Johnson, famously terrible, is a league minimum extra d. Everyone you mentioned save for Landeskog are UFAs at the end of the year. I wasn’t sure what Sakic was going to do with Landeskog, but they’re in their window and they had to push their chips in at some point.

Goalies and d both have better aging curves than forwards.

The only forwards the Leafs have over 30 besides Tavares are Spezza and Simmons. They’re both still effective and their contracts can be completely buried in the minors. Muzin and Brodie could age out at some point during their contracts. Tavares is still good, but yeah that contract has the potential to turn very ugly at some point.

Nice job by the Leafs signing a cluster of 26-rear-olds in Kampf, Kase, and Bunting though, right? I also like Ritchie though he’s had a rough start.

Staal is on the tail end of a forever contract signed before Tulsky was hired. Smith and Stepan have 1-year burriable contracts.Coles contract ends this year.

Other teams are generally more careful to keep their Ryan’s and Turris contracts to 1-year or ensure the cap hit is completely buriable.

Teams are forced to go all in on forever contracts like Tavares, Staal, Landeskog etc. Though only the Oilers actually traded for the last two years of one of these contracts in acquiring Keith. We also have our own soon-to-be millstones in the Nuge and Hyman contracts.

Still, none of these other teams went out in free agency to sign a 34 y/o journeyman center to a 2-years contract that can’t be buried, signed a 39 y/o goalie to a 2-year contract,or traded actual assets for a 38 year old defenseman with a $5.5m cap hit x2 years.

jp

Still, none of these other teams went out in free agency to sign a 34 y/o journeyman center to a 2-years contract that can’t be buried, signed a 39 y/o goalie to a 2-year contract,or traded actual assets for a 38 year old defenseman with a $5.5m cap hit x2 years.

Well Sakic/Springings did sign a 34 year old journeyman center for 2x$1.8M. And traded a 1st, a 3rd and a young defenseman for 1 year of a 31 year old goalie.

IMO there’s a legitimate argument that Ryan at 2x$1.25M and Smith at 2x$2.2M (who had much better numbers than Kuemper last year) are better bets than Bellemare at 2x$1.8M and Kuemper at 1x$3.5M with major assets out.

Fair enough that Keith isn’t something Sakic/Springings have done.

Ryan

Goalies are on a different aging curve. Also, there’s a big gap between a 31-year-old and a 39-year-old goalie.

Sakic paid in full for Kuemper, but I thought he was bidding against Kenny for him? He certainly dodged a bullet by walking away from Grubauer. There weren’t many goalies available.

Bellmare’s data is historical. He was old, but he was very effective those two years.

How you know when to bet against Father Time is a question that I don’t have an answer to. Generally, though, you either find former elite-aged players or guys that are plus skaters I’d imagine. Ryan is neither.

Bellmare’s quite a good skater and athletic player though. He’s now 36 and still playing better than Ryan.

It’s been long established that once 30, you certainly don’t expect any improvement in goalies. Hockey Graphs has 35 as the age goalies are predicted to fall off the cliff.

We’re dealing with outliers with forward skaters like Bellemare, Ryan, and even guys Nate Thompson who’re journeymen forwards who’re still playing in the NHL

jp

Goalies are on a different aging curve. Also, there’s a big gap between a 31-year-old and a 39-year-old goalie.

Absolutely, but also a big gap in cost between Kuemper and Smith. And yes, Holland was also in the bidding, but Sakic clearly outbid him, so we don’t know what was offered from the Oilers side.

Overly simplistic, but eyeballing the numbers it looks like Kuemper was expected to lose about .001 off his .907 SV% while Smith was expected to lose .008 off his .923 (so .915, then .906 in year 2). That’s not fair to Kuemper (though he is at .907 again), and it’s likely a bit harsh on Smith.

Still, I believe Smith’s deal was a good bet.

Bellmare’s quite a good skater and athletic player though. He’s now 36 and still playing better than Ryan.

If you’re arguing that the Bellemare deal at age 34 was a better bet when signed than the Ryan deal at the same age, well you’ve lost me.

Bling

Great post.

Ethan Bear is a bellwether for Holland’s thinking, Tipp’s as well, and it’s not good.

JOFA

Excellent post Bling

OriginalPouzar

PuckPedia
@PuckPedia

NHL Revised Emergency Exception Rules:

-Emergency Exception ($0 Cap Hit) now eligible for Cap hits <= $1M (up from $850K).
-If short 12F/6D due to COVID, can recall w/out playing short 1 game
-If short 2 G’s for any reason, can recall w/out playing short

Taxi Squad:

-Now thru All Star
-Max 6
-Max 20 days on Taxi
-Treated as in AHL for Cap Purposes & injuries
-Ineligible: On NHL Roster Dec 22, waivers exempt, on NHL Roster 54 days, played 16 of last 20 NHL Games

BornInAGretzkyJersey

So does that mean Skinner would qualify with both Smith and Stalock out?

OriginalPouzar

Munzenburger scores…….

OriginalPouzar
jp

That sure beats him being in the box for 2 GA (as in the exhibition game)!

Tarkus

Munzenberger gets Germany on the board as he gets out of the box (interference call) and eventually corrals a loose puck and beats the Finnish goalie with a hard wrister from distance.

Tarkus

He had a hard wrister from the point on a first-period PP as well. Seems to be on PP1/PK2.

Always seems to cheat for D. Doesn’t rush the puck a lot. Doesn’t get beat wide. Zero hesitation to play physical.

Todd Macallan

Yeah has good reach and mobility despite not the prettiest skating stride. Very much in the mold of Niemo, and that’s not a bad thing.

Todd Macallan

Munzenberger!

OriginalPouzar

OriginalPouzar

 December 26, 2021 9:29 am

From accounts a few days ago, it doesn’t seem like Holland’s Covid-LTIR hope will come true but an ability to call up < $1M players without cap implications.

Looks like we may be going this route:

Elliotte Friedman
@FriedgeHNIC
NHL/NHLPA working on COVID roster protection, including: Optional use of taxi-squad through All-Star; emergency call-ups as long as player is making no more than $1M; and freedom to add a goalie if a club has less than 2 healthy due to the virus.

Elliotte Friedman
@FriedgeHNIC
·
1h
Replying to 
@FriedgeHNIC
There are some rules on who is eligible for a taxi squad, including clearing of waivers and time spent on an NHL roster.

Last edited 2 years ago by OriginalPouzar
OriginalPouzar

Looks like the above is indeed in place:

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/nhl-nhlpa-working-covid-19-roster-protection/

I don’t expect the Oilers to use the taxi squad (well at least not fully) as Holland alluded to it earlier in the week and was clear he’d rather have players playing in Bakersfield then on a taxi squad.

Unless the border becomes an issue, its not required like last year where they didn’t have access to their AHL affiliate.

OriginalPouzar

Samorukov recalled!

Oil2Oilers

I am trying to temper my excitement and expectations, and not doing a great job.

Reja

Yamo has been playing with zero confidence all year could the lowball 1 year deal have anything to do with it, who knows. The lack of scoring and physicality from the second line is killing us and costing us games. 10 games into the year I would of dropped Yamo down in the batting order to regain and stir a 3rd or 4th line. There’s 1 poster on this blog that feels Yamo’s entitled and deserves to be on the 2nd line because he does so many other things well besides scoring. The main reason he thinks Yamo should be on the 2nd line is because Leon likes him, which I find is a very silly comment to make, but hey that’s just my opinion.

jp

Who are you talking about?

It almost sounds like me except I don’t think he should be there because Leon ‘likes’ him.

OriginalPouzar

There’s 1 poster on this blog that feels Yamo’s entitled and deserves to be on the 2nd line because he does so many other things well besides scoring. 

Nope – I’ve never said this and have expressed, since before this season even started, that he’d be an elite 3rd liner today and that, one more legit top 6 winger would bump him down and that would be championship level depth.

You have a penchant for “misinterpreting” my opinions and, much of the time, it seems more intentionally twisting than misinterpreting.

Reja

Whatever you say Nav Bhatia. You never answered my question awhile back of who scored the last goal for the Oilers in the WHA?

OriginalPouzar

I couldn’t care less about what Oilers scored the last goal in the WHL and why would I go searching at your request when your defence to intentionally falsifying my position and words to fit your narrative is some apparent attempt at a personal derogatory insult?

Reja

Oiler history means nothing to you but it does for a lot of older folks that got to see it and live it firsthand what was the greatest hockey team ever. You seem to have a problem with some older folks on this forum. Do you actually think us older folks are intimated by a bean counting lawyer.

OriginalPouzar

Problem with older folks?

Intimidated?

I don’t have a problem with you but I will certainly call you out when you are intentionally….. eff it, lets just call it what it is, lying about my prior opinions.

Oh, I almost missed it “bean counting lawyer” – the third attempt at a personal insult tonight.

Cool stuff.

Anyways, I’m done with this bickering, our host is none too impressed I’m sure.

Reja

You nailed me with every label that you could think of a few months ago when you butted your nose in to a conversation I was having with another poster. I know your not the sharpest bulb on the tree but if your going to throw slanderous nasty labels on people your getting it right back counsellor.

Reja

Yes you better go run and hide behind Mr.Lowetide’s shirttails because someone disagrees with the line placement of a certain player.

Sierra

Reja has lost the plot.

Reja

You’re Out OF ORDER!
YOU’RE OUT OF ORDER!
The whole trial is out of order!

Reja

Also it was called the WHA not WHL you should read up on it. The WHA had quite the handful of characters who could forget the Goldy Shuffle.

godot10

A one year deal was to Yamamoto’s benefit, not the Oilers, because it makes him arbitration eligible. i.e. if he puts up just average numbers for a middle six winger, he would cash in far more than he would have with a two year deal.

Last edited 2 years ago by godot10
Reja

Maybe Holland is getting tired of Yamo spinning his tires on the 2nd line but Tippett refuses to replace him so the only way to fix that problem is to trade him while he still has a bit of value. I can see Yamo and another player or pick going for a Goaltender at the deadline. I get a kick out of the Cult following that a 25 Goalscorer has in a 134 Games. I know he’s a professional at the art of drawing penalties because he’s so weak on the puck but Come on Man!!

OriginalPouzar

Intentionally falsifying the opinion of the majority of the forum now.

Of course you know that large majority like Kailer and appreciate the ways he helps the team on the ice but also think he’s best suited to 3RW at this point.

You know who has the best GA/60 on the team for the forwards over the last two seasons? Kailer Yamamoto. That high-end ability to help prevent goals against is very valuable. As is the ability to draw penalties (in various ways), to turnover pucks, to kill penalties, etc.

He’s tradeable, of course, but I would argue his next contract is going to be $1.75MM – $2MM and Yamamoto will provide big value on that contract if they can find another forward to knock him down to the 3rd line.

Reja

Aren’t you the cult figure rock star speaking for most of the folks on this forum. You don’t happened to have lived at one time on the Spahn Ranch?

OriginalPouzar

Let me know when you are ready to not intentionally misstate positions and then resort personal insult attempts as a defence mechanics – then we can chat substance.

Sierra

Weren’t you one of the biggest yeller that Tippett was an idiot for not putting RNH-Drai-Yamo back together?

jp

And subsequently that Brendan Perlini (he of the 55 2-4-6 boxcars since Yamamoto was called up) should play top 6 in place of stone hands Yamamoto.

Last edited 2 years ago by jp
Bumblebpete

Imagine a building team dealing Devan Dubnyk (2014), Jeff Petry (2015), Taylor Hall (2016) and Jordan Eberle (2017) while also building for the playoffs. Kind of nuts.

This says it all.

Oil2Oilers

It wasn’t so much death by a thousand cuts as it was mauling by machete blows.

innercitysmytty

Maybe, but team building, especially in a cap environment isn’t about collecting and keeping every single decent player drafted. You have to factor in the return on those assets, cap cost, relative value of players, etc. There is a lot of black and white in terms of how we all assess this team (I’m certainly guilty of it like everyone else). But I think our host and others have taught over the years that there needs to be room for the grey in between when assessing things. I’m more discouraged about the poor return (Hall and Petry primarily) on most of those players and how they were handled (Dubnyk and Petry) by various coaches over the years than the fact that they were traded.

tileguy

I wasn’t to thrilled with the return we got on Caleb Jones.

Munny 2.0

LT said…

However, the Bear situation, no matter how badly handled..

What happened? Being involved in a hockey trade for an area of need isn’t being “badly handled,” so I’m guessing there’s something else? I can’t recall anything but my brain isn’t what it used to be.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Guessing it was the mistakes against WPG that led to him being benched in OT.

Last edited 2 years ago by BornInAGretzkyJersey
Munny 2.0

I think conflating the GM’s trade months later with the coach’s decision in the heat of battle–a coach who has proven over and over again to have patience–is a serious mis-read of the situation.

We seem to love pilloring our executives for things we imagine in our head. Such is the danger of narratives. People get run out of town because fans pull shit like this.

Which RH Dman would the mob have preferred Holland trade for Foegele?

innercitysmytty

He did blow it from a coaching perspective. But why is his coaching in that series tied to the trade? Just because the trade happened in the summer following? I have the same read as Munny here, it was a hockey trade driven by a lot of factors, of which the outcome of Bear’s play in that series was likely low on the list. Many people see that differently and that’s fair, but either way it’s far from clear that the coaching in that series was the primary factor.

Munny 2.0

Yes. And certainly we have no verbal from any of the parties indicating the reason for the trade was poor play. This is an invented bugaboo, IMO.

Munny 2.0

Apologies if I have, but I was responding more there to the replies to my post. As you can see in that initial post, I’m actually asking for clarification because that’s what it sounds like you were talking about, but I couldn’t be sure.

Looks like others felt the same confusion. Your discussion of the handling of Bear was framed at the beginning by:

I think the reason that people are down on Tippett’s development of youth is the Ethan Bear outcome.

And at the end by your quote above. Kind of seems like an automatic assumption. But “outcome” is a bit ambiguous to my eye, so I asked if I was missing something. Looks like asking for clarification was a good idea. 😛

I’m glad that you consider the trade an unrelated issue. It isn’t with many fans.

YYCOil

In that play-off series Bear was only shoulder checking over his right shoulder in his corner. The Jets clearly saw this and I am certain Playfair saw this as well. If a RHD doesn’t shoulder check off his left shoulder he has to play the puck out the weak side too often.

Last edited 2 years ago by YYCOil
Reja

The Hawks did this as well the previous year.

YYCOil

Nurse didn’t take a minute from Bear. Bear lost minutes to Barrie who player 49 minutes and Larsson who played 39 minutes.

Defensively you put your numbers on to the strong side to support the puck. When the puck goes out the weak side you are putting the puck to places where there is no designed support. The hard news is Bear lost his ice time to veterans who were playing better in the structure.

YYCOil

I am not sure how this works, but it feels like this would be Playfair’s call on who is playing on the defense. Why do you think Tippett would make this decision?

Bling

LT is not stating an opinion; he is stating a fact.

All of Bear, Kulikov, and Bouchard are top 4 or top pairing D this season. Jones has been a net positive at EV on a terrible Hawks team.

That this is being debated is hilarious.

Material Elvis

You state opinions like they are facts. None of those guys are top pairing; maybe Bouchard is a true top 4 if you squint hard. The other guys have played a few minutes on the top pairings only due to injury/sickness.

Ryan

Speaking of Petry, he must be the best player the Oilers ever drafted out of the USHL.

What is the NHLe for the USHL?

I was wondering that the other day looking at Ross Colton’s hockey card.

jp

0.27 according to this site: http://nhlecalculator.blogspot.com/2017/05/the-nhle-calculator-updated-24052017.html?m=1

Colton’s 19 year old USHL season is pretty similar to Blumel’s (both of their draft years).

Colton’s hockey card doesn’t predict an NHL player as far as I can tell.

Last edited 2 years ago by jp
Sierra

Are there studies comparing the quality of competition between 2nd and 3rd lines?

Does a 3rd line really face the “soft parade” that many claim?

Harpers Hair

Depends to some degree how teams deploy their lines.

Some us their 3rd lines as shut down lines and try get them out against top competition.

kelvjn

Don’t get the down votes.

What would one call the Jets Adam Lowry line, who is a fully capable match against either the McDavid or Draisatl lines but playing behind Statsny and Luc-Dubois?

Ryan

Theo Peckham was having a blessed season

You spelled “Teddy Peckman” wrong 🙂

innercitysmytty

LT you’re right that Kailer has been given a lot of rope (maybe too much) on a skill line vis-a-vis his production. This team needs to get better at pro-scouting externally but also internally, to properly judge which players to hold and which players to cut bait on (and when). We’ve seen too much of both sides of the coin end poorly over the last 15 years. I believe Kailer can be a valuable piece to this team moving forward, but he’s not trending to be a core piece. He could be a very productive 3rd line W with the right 3C (maybe that’s McLeod long term). Overall roster turnover on an annual basis is fine if you identify and keep the correct core pieces and identify the correct pieces to turnover and find value in their replacements.

OriginalPouzar

Teams can start skating today at 2pm. I know the Oilers planned on skating today but, given the postponement of tomorrow’s game, I wonder if they’ll wait until PCR tests are back and not skate until tomorrow.

Eh Team

As teams come back off the break and get tested, I’d expect a whole bunch more positive tests. Look at the NBA and NFL where there are lots of ‘replacement’ players on rosters right now. And look how prevalent COVID is in the general population.

Last edited 2 years ago by Eh Team
Oil2Oilers

Yamamoto settling in as a fan favorite 3d line player who doesn’t quite have the offense to stick in the top 6 is an OK result.

OriginalPouzar

A fan favourite except for those that thing he is terrible and needs to be traded (not necessarily on this platform but definitely a view that’s out there).

Munny 2.0

There’s plenty of people in-between those two extreme viewpoints too.

OriginalPouzar

I’d add Caleb Jones to Ethan Bear as part of the narrative re: Tippett and youth. Of course, as we are seeing, Caleb Jones remains a tweener even in another organization with a, well, no deep depth chart.

Yamamoto was moved to the top 6 after one game under Tippett…… he’s remained in the top 6 even with production issues for a large sample now. Part of that is lack of other options but that youngster has been provided rope.

Jesse Puljujarvi was placed on McDavid’s wing apx 8-9 games after returning to North America – I believe he’s played apx 85% of his minutes with McDavid since.

Evan Bouchard, sure, he was brought along slowly last season but this season, as still a very young D, he was bumped to 1st pariing early in the season and has seen a mix of RD1 and RD3. He’s also been PK1 since game 1 – that is a major show of trust.

Ryan McLeod was given legit minutes by Tip immediately upon call-up and in the playoffs – even playing centre to Nuge in a few games.

Tippett will use young player in important roles if they show they might be ready and then earn trust when slotted in such roles.

Harpers Hair

Breaking down the remaining schedule.

Toronto, Colorado and Calgary among those on easy street…the Oilers not so much.

https://thewincolumn.ca/2021/12/25/nhl-fantasy-evaluating-each-teams-strength-of-schedule-for-the-rest-of-the-2021-22-season/

innercitysmytty

The article acknowledges at the end that rescheduling of the postponed games has yet to be taken into account. Calgary needs to jam in at least 7 games to the remaining schedule. I’m sure that won’t impact their strength of schedule at all.

Harpers Hair

Impossible to predict or analyze that since there could be more games postponed.

Not sure where you’re getting the 7 extra Flames games since the Oilers have played only 1 more game than Calgary.

Also worth noting that Calgary has played a very road heavy schedule thus far and should benefit from having many more home games down the stretch with far less travel.

leadfarmer

You just Ty Dellandread your own post

OriginalPouzar

Yes, that is worth noting and I was just about to do that.

You analysis of the facts have come to a made-up conclusion to fit your narrative considering the flames have been quite poor at home and road-demons. The “should benefit” is made up based on facts.

leadfarmer

except Calgary has not had a single injury of note this entire season which is not likely to continue

leadfarmer

But strength of schedule will ultimately be determined by own arena availability

Harpers Hair

Depends how you’re defining injury.

Calgary had the worst Covid outbreak by far and even that would provide an eventual advantage since almost their entire team will be exempt from testing and quarantine.

innercitysmytty

The Flames didn’t have to play one game without that extensive list of players out due to Covid. Whereas the Oilers and a lot of other teams played multiple games with a number of key players out. RE: the 7 games, the Flames had 7 games postponed due to Covid, of which all 7 still need to be rescheduled. Overall games played has nothing to do with that. The bottom of the article you linked noted that when postponed games are rescheduled it will impact the strength of schedule for the teams involved. Just pointing out that your original post does not factor this in to your assertion that the Flames have an easy schedule moving forward.

Harpers Hair

Yep…the Flames got “lucky” by having so many simultaneous covid cases.

And, yes, fitting those re-scheduled games in will be an issue to some degree but it is hardly a huge issue for the Flames since they had played more games before they were shut down.

Here are the number of games remaining for the Pacific Division:

Vegas 50

Anaheim 50

Vancouver 51

Seattle 52

Los Angeles 52

San Jose 52

Edmonton 53

Calgary 54

So, in reality the Flames need to fit in 4 extra games more than Vegas and Anaheim and only 1 more than the Oilers.

Over the course of the next 3 months that is not onerous and, as I mentioned, they will play 30 of those games at home and only 24 on the road.

OriginalPouzar

Considering the flames suck at home….

leadfarmer

But they didn’t have to play through the covid outbreak like most teams and got shut down through the covid outbreak without any man games lost. And still do not have a significant injury that will cost them man games which is unheard of

jp

Calgary had the worst Covid outbreak by far and even that would provide an eventual advantage since almost their entire team will be exempt from testing and quarantine.

This is AMAZING 🤩

Now even team wide Covid outbreaks are a good thing, unless they happen to the Oilers.

Harpers Hair

But that’s not what happened.

Often a curse turns into a blessing as time passes.

OriginalPouzar

I remember the flames being primed to shoot up the standings last season based on strength of schedule. I also remember no such up shooting.

Material Elvis

You do this every year, and every year you end up with egg on your face. Slow learner?

jp

Being right isn’t the end game in this case.

OriginalPouzar

I anticipate that Bourgault will have a similar tournament to the recent Oilers prospects on Team Canada, Holloway and Lavoie, a depth role for the most part. That is my expectation.

OriginalPouzar

Also, supposed to be an update from the NHL itself today with respect to “return to play”.

As far protocols and procedures, I don’t think they can go to not testing asymptomatic players – I can understand the premise and, not only are there risks but it doesn’t work practically with border crossing where testing is mandatory (well, unless a recent positive test but that’s 1/8 of the league at this point).

From accounts a few days ago, it doesn’t seem like Holland’s Covid-LTIR hope will come true but an ability to call up < $1M players without cap implications.

Anyways, first things first, no more positives when testing resumes today and a hope they can play on Wed. Monday wasn’t practical but hopefully Wed is.

jp

If the Oilers are able to retain the Bouchards, Brobergs and Holloways for a long period, and we’ll include Jesse Puljujarvi and Kailer Yamamoto in the group, then replacing a large portion of the roster every summer will eventually become a thing of the past.

Along these lines, I was looking at next year’s (22-23) cap and potential roster.

The following roster is compliant (about $300k to spare) with an $82.5M cap according to Cap Friendly:
(There will surely be more changes than this. Also, shuffle lines and pairings to taste)

Hyman-McDavid-Puljujarvi
Nuge-Draisaitl-Yamamoto
Holloway-McLeod-Foegele
Benson-Ryan-Kassian
Shore-Sceviour
/
Nurse-Barrie
Keith-Bouchard
Broberg-Ceci
Samorukov
/
Smith-Skinner

The only new contracts over $1M were Yamamoto at $1.25M and Puljujarvi at $5.5M (I think those numbers are reasonable, or at least plausible, not sure how long Puljujarvi signs for at that number).

Next seasons roster won’t be ALL incumbents, but there should be less than we’ve been accustomed to even in recent years.

Good to see things can work even without salary being sent out.

Ryan

Derek has rebounded the past few games a bit. Still I hope he’s not on the roster next year.

Mark Letestu who’s an ‘85 (compared to Ryan who’s an ‘86), hasn’t played in the NHL for the past two seasons. Prior to that, he had trivial and ineffective seasons of 7, 2, and 20 games.

In Letstu’s last season with the Oilers in 2017, he was 32 turning 33.

Derek Ryan turns 35 on the 29th.

Man that Ken Holland guy.

Last edited 2 years ago by Ryan
jp

Fair enough to expect age related regression. It is inevitable in the big picture.

It isn’t inevitable in the short term though, and it doesn’t work in a straight line.

Two counter examples to Letestu are Ovechkin having an actual career year at 36 and Mike Smith having a Vezina vote season last year at 38 (folks can argue Smith was a bad bet last year, but he ended up being a great value signing by Holland).

I’d be cool with Ryan on the roster/3rd/4th line next year if he’s playing well enough. I’d give him the chance and don’t see it as particularly unlikely.

Munny 2.0

An analogy of a specific to another specific.

This is a pretty weak argument.

Ryan

Using a recent player comp, in a situation where there isn’t enough data to inform an opinion, is a weak argument?

Munny 2.0

Yes. Always.

OriginalPouzar

I think that’s about right for Jesse but I think Kailer will be closer to $2MM.

Also, does this take in to account Klef (and presumably it takes in to account the Neal and Lucic dead money)?

Also, cap will probably be $83.5MM.

jp

Yeah with arbitration rights Yamamoto likely ends up higher than I have him.

The numbers include the dead money and assume Klefbom still on LTIR. If the cap is $83.5M that’s great obviously.

OriginalPouzar

Per Holland the other day, the plan was for the team to practice today – they were going to take rapid tests prior to practice as well as PCR tests – won’t fly anywhere until the PCR test results were back (plan was to fly to Calgary on game-day, Monday).

With no Monday game, I wonder if they’ll wait for the PCR tests to hit the ice.

Either way, here is hoping no positives come out today.

Woodguy v2.0

I expect the coach (and possibly GM) felt that Bear and Evan Bouchard on the same defense would be too much youth and not enough size/truculence.

Since they signed Barrie in conjunction with trading Bear, I don’t think size/truculence played a part. The “too much youth” part is reasonable with the Barrie signing.

Last edited 2 years ago by Woodguy v2.0
OriginalPouzar

I believe the manager was trying to make a hockey trade.

Maybe he leaked some value, quite possibly, but he was trying to acquire a player to fill a need.

As an aside, last I checked:

1) Foegele was on the 1st line and Bear was on the 3rd pair

2) Bear is an RFA with arbitration rights this off-season and Foegele is cost-controlled, 30 games in to a 3 year contract for his prime years.

Of course, the above is posted with a bit of jest, I’m well aware of where each normally play but its somewhat clear that the narrative of “trading a 3rd line for a cost-controlled top 4 d-man” is, well, mostly that, a narrative as that undervalues Foegele and speaks to Bear’s high end and a position he still hasn’t solidified. The “cost-controlled” is highly misleading given the two contract status.

I wish the Oilers had Bear over Barrie.

I like Foegele.

John Chambers

The Bear trade had a lot to do with freeing him to go be a hockey player. In Edmonton he bore the weight of being a social icon.
It’s really too bad. It was a great story until it became too much of a story. For young Ethan I’m pleased that Holland gave him a life in a new market where he doesn’t own responsibilities as a public figure.

Numenius

You nailed it, John. This is the key to understanding the Bear trade. Bear didn’t ‘ask’ for a trade, but for his own well-being he needed the trade and Holland was astute enough to see that.

jp

Tough to disagree with this.

Along, I think, with an assessment that Bear and Barrie bring something in range of equivalent value as players.

Last edited 2 years ago by jp
YYCOil

I can see many here think Bear is equal to or greater than Barrie. I personally don’t see they are equal today.

Barrie was the leading scoring defenseman and lead the best powerplay in NHL history last year. He has played 639 NHL games

Bear has been a 3rd paring defenseman with potential to be a 2nd pair (on a good team). Last year the Jets targeted his speed and skating and highlighted that Bear is still growing as a player. He has 154 NHL games.

Eh Team

Bear >>>> Barrie by a lot. There’s a reason Barrie never PKs and is rarely out there in the last few minutes defending a lead.

YYCOil

Bear is never on the PP and rarely out there in when the team needs a goal.

I am not saying Bear is bad, he is clearly a useful NHL player. At this point in time Barrie is a better NHL player, imo

Eh Team

Unfortunately as Bling shows above the underlying stats show just the opposite

OriginalPouzar

Bear is 4th among Carolina regular D-men in TOI/G when trailing and 6th when trailing by 1.

Material Elvis

In the last month, Barrie>>>>Bear. Bear was out of the lineup injured/sick for awhile and when he returned looked terrible (and had his average TOI reduced by about 6 minutes per game). Barrie has been steadily improving defensively (he’ll never be great) since the season started and is clearly superior to Bear offensively.

DevilsLettuce

Wait wasn’t Barrie signed in conjunction with Larsson taking his reasonings to Seattle.

jp

Yes, but the choice to move Bear was made after that. Holland et al clearly decided on Barrie over Bear (presumably also factoring Bear’s trade value, and potentially other factors in the greater transaction).

Munny 2.0

Carolina was willing to accept Barrie in trade?

If Barrie’s agent had gotten a whiff of a signing and trade, would he have signed?

Likely the negotiations were between Boosh and Bear. Personally, I think the org decided which of the two to trade correctly.

I think Larsson’s decision created a very difficult problem for the org to solve in a short priod of time. If it had been a problem in 2010, maybe even 2015, likely it would have messed the team up for years.

Bruce McCurdy

Bear was traded in the hour before free agency opened, then Barrie re-signed that same day, then Ceci signed as well. All on Jul 28, I believe in that order even as Barrie & Ceci were strongly rumoured the night before.

jp

Agree Larsson’s decision made things difficult and necessitated some quick shuffling.

I’m not sure what you mean about Barrie/Carolina. I wasn’t suggesting that, just that the choice to trade Bear and to sign Barrie/Ceci involved the Bear trade return as part of the + in what actually transpired.

Whatever Oilers D the decisions/discussions were between (i tend to think Bouch on the roster was a given, with Bear, Barrie, Ceci, other, as the discussions) the final choice was to move forward with Barrie, Ceci, Bouchard and trade Bear. So on some level all of those players (and that ‘mix’) were chosen over Bear (but with caveats of cap hit, value returned in trade, and change of scenery also involved to some degree or other).