Brendan Perlini scored another nice goal last night, and his five-on-five goals-per-60 (0.84) and points-per-60 (1.26) are solid numbers for a depth forward. Why doesn’t he play more? Edmonton has Zach Hyman (1.68 points-per-60), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (1.44) and Warren Foegele (1.28) ahead of him, but Perlini is closing the gap and winning the battle with Tyler Benson (0.42).
The Oilers were outmanned last night and the line who got them on the board (Perlini, Colton Sceviour, Kyle Turris) did themselves an enormous favour. Toronto won the game, but it was a good effort and all three showed well. That’s going to be important for all of the players not considered foundation pieces on this roster.
Edmonton is not in a playoff position at this time. That changes things. Everyone is still pushing for the postseason, but there are also next season’s jobs to push for in these last 48 games.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Will this be another lost season?
- New Jonathan Willis: Mikko Koskinen isn’t the Oilers’ biggest summer mistake
- Lowetide: Hard-target search for the Oilers’ next starting goaltender
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers forward lineup isn’t deep or good enough
- DNB: Time for the Oilers to move on from Mikko Koskinen
- Lowetide: If Oilers plan a coaching change, why stop there?
- New DNB: Exploring how the Oilers can get back on track
- Lowetide: Long December has Oilers fans looking for reasons to believe
- Lowetide: Can the Oilers fix their defence with the current personnel?
- DNB: Why getting Mike Smith back now is important to the Oilers’ present and future plans
- Lowetide: The five most effective Oilers mid-season recalls since 1979-80
- Lowetide: A complete review of the Bakersfield Condors’ 2021-22 season to date
- DNB: For Oilers’ Kailer Yamamoto, the goal has always been to belong with the best
- DNB: Jesse Puljujarvi’s next contract? Expectations for Dylan Holloway? Oilers mailbag
- Lowetide: If the Oilers add a big deadline asset, Philip Broberg will be the ask
- Lowetide: 7 AHL trade targets that could immediately improve Oilers’ NHL forward depth
- DNB: How Stuart Skinner became Oilers’ ‘young goalie on the rise’
- Lowetide: If the losing continues will the Oilers make a coaching change?
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2021
WHAT TO EXPECT IN JANUARY
- On the road to: NYI, NYR, TOR (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 0-2-1)
- At home to: OTT, FLA, CGY (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: VAN (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: NAS (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: MTL, OTT (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 4-5-1, 9 points in 10 games
- Actual January results: 0-2-1, 1 point in 3 games
- Oilers in 2021-22: 18-14-2, 38 points in 34 games
After a 15-5-0 start, the team is 3-9-2 and about to get passed by several teams in the Pacific Division and Western Conference. The last time this team had any swagger came in the Rangers game at Rogers Place, and the team had to storm the gates to win that one. There’s a game coming up Monday against Ottawa, with the next one after that slated for January 20 against Florida.
If there’s a goalie coming, a center arriving via airplane or a new coaching plan, the time is now. It should be an interesting two weeks for Oilers fans. Oilers on pace for 92 points, that’s shy of the playoffs. Talk of trading the first-round pick is unwise unless you use “lottery protected” in the sentence. Winnipeg is a point behind with two games in hand, LAK are a point behind with a game in hand, San Jose three points behind (no games in hand) and Dallas, yes Dallas, has five games in hand and trails by six points. Edmonton is in a lot of trouble this morning.
Mike Smith stopped 29 of 32, .906. The first goal went in off Smith, that’s a save you need your goalie make (or at least cover without having it go in the net). He played well over the rest of the game to my eye, but his season now features an .898 SP and a 3.76 GAA. These are not strong numbers, in fact his .910 SP at five-on-five ranked him No. 55 among 77 goaltenders with 100 or more minutes in the discipline via Natural Stat Trick. Mikko Koskinen is No. 60 (.906) and Stuart Skinner is No. 51 (.913).
FORWARDS
Leon Draisaitl, man. He was amazing. Scored the 2-1 goal, made Sweet Jesus passes and had two chances (left and right wing) on the same shift and I swear that second one turned left mid-flight. Leon did get intercepted by Alex Kerfoot to begin the sequence that ended in the Tavares 1-0 goal. Leafs have great sticks. Kailer Yamamoto was also the author of several fine passes and grabbed an assist. He is 2-4-6 in his last six games and so the early-season patience appears to be paying off. Foegele also grabbed an assist (now 5-7-12 in 34 games, on pace for 29 points) on what was the Oilers feature line. Draisaitl went 10 minutes against the Matthews line, 1-1 goals and 3-5 shots. I thought they played well.
Ryan McLeod missed a sure goal somehow, perhaps hesitating too long while Jack Campbell did a reverse Wallenda to stop the shot. A big moment in the game and the type of break Edmonton hasn’t been getting lately. Both Hyman and Puljujarvi had great looks and skated miles (3TK for JP), Hyman played in extreme bad luck, going 0-2 goals at five-on-five. Some pressure starting to rise on Puljujarvi’s offense, he has scored 3-2-5 in the last 10 games but hasn’t posted a point in four games.
Devin Shore made a tremendous defensive interception in the third period that saved a sure goal. He also forechecked well and had a clean slate while losing the shot differential and most of his faceoffs. Benson did some good passing, drew a penalty, had a good desperation moment in the neutral zone, and Zack Kassian had three shots on goal (one a reasonable look flying down RW) and some hits.
Colton Sceviour is putting people out of work with his impressive play currently. His pass to Perlini on the goal was impressive, and he worked hard on the forecheck and kept his legs moving on the backcheck. Perlini knows what to do with the puck, my guess is that he gets more playing time in the last 45 games of the season. Turris passed well, got some power-play time and picked up an assist. Dave Tippett might be out the door soon but I don’t think his team quit on him.
DEFENSE
Darnell Nurse iced the puck before the 2-2 goal and the 1-0 goal went in off his leg. Evan Bouchard’s penalty came after a high-risk pass attempt for no real reason and he was plodding when passing with Draisaitl at the end of the game. Firing it on net or sending it to the left is an option. Bouchard is a brilliant player who touches the puck and they can’t all be perfect but you can see there’s room to grow for this fine young player. They’ve been bleeding of late, and Bouchard has had issues, but I’d keep them together. Bouchard can do this.
Duncan Keith is playing his best hockey of the season. Solid decisions, he’s aggressive and filthy and recovers well. He’s 23-22 goal differential at five-on-five after starting 14-19 (-5) in the first 20. That means he’s 9-3 GF-GA in his last five games. It hasn’t resulted in wins, but Keith is bringing it. Cody Ceci is 5-2 goals in his last four, a good indicator for this pairing.
William Lagesson had a good game, blocked a shot that clearly hurt, found himself in the offensive zone with the puck nearby and did not handle it with great skill. That’s okay, not his job. Slater Koekkoek looks far better when playing with a shutdown blue like Lagesson, he moved the puck well enough and played a simple game. He also chopped the puck perfectly to Mikheyev on the winner, bad luck sure but if he made a better play there Edmonton is still tied.
THE WAY FORWARD
Ken Holland’s team has some things figured out (17-17 in five on five goals over the last seven games) but the goaltending is not strong and that has to be fixed. Here are the numbers in those most recent seven games.
In the last seven games, the third and fourth lines have been productive. It’s such a small sample, and like Keith’s progress it’s coming during a time of downbeat in the win-loss column, but this club has shown some progress in areas of weakness over the last seven games.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning we’re wall to wall Oilers on TSN 1260. Chris Johnston, TSN Insider, will give us the latest on Ken Holland’s search for help and we’ll chat about the disappearing schedule for Canadian teams. We are also lining up an Oilers guest for 11 and will have your texts and pass along the best of them. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
Kambietz with a clean open ice hit at center but the Abbotsford thug takes a retalitory penalty.
On the PP, Safin passes to the net front on the PP from the half-boards and I think it went off the d-man and in (may have hit Schaller).
5-1.
Safin corrals the puck off an offensive zone draw, moves the middle and rips one home (off a defender…).
This game has been fairly rough/dirty – a few big hits and some fights.
Esposito with a massive open up hit – likely a bit late.
This is the first of four games between the two clubs.
Condors kill off the major – 2 shots against.
That was a massive hit. They wouldn’t replay it on the scoreboard. Refs debated awhile before assessing major. PP by Canucks was a tragedy.
Raining here now so roads were fine getting home! Yay.
I’ll be at game tomorrow too if anyone wants me to note on anything.
Yes please, please note good/bad impressions of Broberg, Samorukov and Lavoie. Thank you!
Today Lavoie seemed decent. Broberg was hesitant to my eye and didn’t use his speed to his advantage. Odd he wasn’t on pp1 for the first few. Was later on. Sam seemed a bit clumsy.
I will compare tomorrow
Thanks for these, much appreciated.
Griffth cross ice up top to Marody who whips one in from distance on the PP…… a fairly weak goal.
Marody ties Benson for 2nd all-time in Condors scoring (Currie leads).
Cancuks try and get cute exiting the zone and Marody picks off a pass and goes in on a 2 on 0 with Griffith, feeds him and the Condors with a LATE 2nd period goal.
3-1 at the break.
Colorado, as expected, rocketing up the standings now that they’re healthy.
A 7-1 win over the Jets…Nate MacKinnon with 5 points…Bowen Byram with 1G 1A.
Dallas with a 6-5 win over Florida..move ahead of the Oilers in points percentage.
AA Peewee Hyper Harriers 2
Crusty Coastal Renegers 1
#3 had a great game and looks like his skating improves every week. He might be ready for more ice time, like 1st pairing minutes after starting out as the clear #6, he is gaining the coaches trust every game, after starting the first 2 weeks very badly. Amazing to see.
Only 5 parents in the stands tonight. It’s very strange though, this one old fella keeps coming to the rink, not sure why. He has no grandchildren on the team, but keeps heckling the kids. He should be kicked out, it’s as creepy as it is annoying, but it’s amazing how kind, patient and tolerant many of the parents are. They think he has a mental illness and feel sorry for him, so they haven’t asked him to leave.
“If Tippett’s going, I want Playfair gone, too. Nurse desperately needs a new teacher and the Oilers could use Manson and some new ideas and pairings.”
https://twitter.com/dkingbh/status/1479290606870577154?s=21
“And, of course, as @ThomsonCam has said, the minute Tippett is fired, Ken Holland is on the clock, too.”
https://twitter.com/dkingbh/status/1479297989046943748?s=21
Honest question, are you Dennis King?
Why do you keep re-posting Dennis King’s Twitter posts? I come here to avoid Twatter.
A beauty move in the neutral zone by Esposito to turn a shorthanded 2 on 2 in to a 2 on 1 and then a great sauce pass to Kemp who squeaks one in.
Wow – maybe Esposito’s best sequence of his pro career (and he had a beauty SH rush in the 1st).
Here is the goal:
https://twitter.com/Condors/status/1479308481748357121
First period of the Abbotsford/Bakers game. Condors look a lot quicker than the Canucks. Canucks really good at getting sticks in the way. Condors need to release quicker.Nice to be at a live game again. Been a long time for me here.
Seeing 3 of the 4 games over the weekend as long as weather doesn’t get worse!!
That was a VERY low event 1st period.
Best scoring chance was Esposito shorthanded.
Have fun!
Yes. It was indeed. A few comedic defending moments by the Canucks. It’s a nice stadium. Glad ahl is back here. I used to enjoy the heat games regardless of the Calgary connections. I miss the dollar hot dog and two dollar beer nights.
I heard the NHL is giving Cdn Teams the choice to play their homes with no Fans or Postpone. So if true it is the TEAMS that are choosing to postpone to hopefully play the make up game down the road and earn $2 -$3 Million ….
These are not small #’s.
If Edm has to play 8 homes games with no Fans; total lost Revenue would be close to $20 Million
Love seeing the phlegms lose. Looking for them to hang another lose tomorrow. Love to see them get their confidence shaken.
That was a well-earned loss – dominated all game – Vlader was good.
Tough to lose these road games given they are 4 wins/7 losses at home.
Nice spin.
4-3-4 is very different than 4-7.
4 wins and 7 losses on home ice.
We all know the flames’ record is highly inflated via loser points.
We all know the Oilers record is inflated by actual losses.
14L to 9L
Which would you prefer?
The point is the flames have been a poor team at home and the amount of losses the Oilers have does not change this.
Why are you changing the topic? I love watching flames LOSE. that is what this is about.
I do feel the Eastern conference is the stronger conference. Toss up for the better division in the east.
It is.
That road trip through Florida, Tampa and Carolina is brutal.
The good news fore the Flames is that they are burning off their eastern road trips early.
Is it a stronger conference or do they have more crappy teams? This is how I’d characterize the conferences: West has 6 really good teams, 7 okay teams, and just 3 crappy teams. The east has 8 really good teams and 8 crappy teams. So for the top 8 teams in the east, they have more chances to play against crappy teams. The west has 13 teams that have a chance to win every night and only 3 crappy teams to beat up on.
Skinner starts for the Condors, duh.
Malone and Berglund remain out (Soderlund also scratched).
Curious why we’re not getting score updates from Calgary game tonight?
4-0 Tampa.
Nazem Kadri with a goal as Colorado ties Winnipeg 1-1.
Kadri has 10 points in his last 5 games.
PTS/GP
McDavid 1.61
Kadri 1.58
Draisatil 1.56
TOI
Draisaitl 22:55
McDavid 22:30
Kadri 18:26
Hart who?
Alex Ovechkin
Ovechkin 1.47 22:08
Kadri 1.58 18:26
While I would vote for Ovechkin based on his historic accomplishments, Kadri would be second on my ballot.
That level of production from a second line centre is unbelievable.
What Kadri is doing is amazing and he deserves to be in the conversation, but Kadri plays lesser competition. He’s playing awesome this year, but MacKinnon, Landeskog, Rantanen face the opposition’s best all night long.
Hope Sakic pays him 10 mil a year for 8 years
Again, pure baiting. Changes the topic to bash the Oilers. Why this is acceptable is beyond the pale. LT should be ashamed that this is constantly allowed.
Yeah, we tried banning it doesn’t work. There are people who enjoy the back and forth. There are also people who simply change their nick and post under a different name. I understand your frustration, I feel it too, and welcome suggestions.
San Jose beat Buffalo 3-2.
The Sharks now only 1 point behind the Oilers as the noose tightens.
You are highly entertaining, if anything.
You really needed to wake him up?
Busy watching games.
Elliotte Friedman
@FriedgeHNIC
Earlier tonight, the Winnipeg Jets sent out a survey asking season-seat holders their opinion on the possibility of home games in another jurisdiction. It is believed the Jets are exploring playing some games at Saskatoon’s SaskTel Centre while there are (1/2)…
@FriedgeHNIC
attendance restrictions in Manitoba. That arena seats 15,000. At this point, Saskatchewan does not have restrictions. Obviously, there is work that needs to be done, and approvals to be secured. But the Jets are doing their legwork.
A coaching change coming.
https://oilersnation.com/2022/01/06/report-edmonton-oilers-coaching-change-could-come-next-week/
I read that article earlier tonight and it references an Emily Kaplan quote.
I respect Emily Kaplan who provides solid info and analysis but, from my read, the quote was purely opinion and not based on any sort of actual information received.
Matt Boldy scores in his 1st NHL game.
who?
Fialas replacement
I’m pretty fascinated with how the Wild will do while carrying the huge buyouts. A great looking team with a couple of anchors tied to them.
Guess they’re smart and are getting their 2 new forwards ready
Going-to have to play someone
Are Kassian and Barrie movable? they seem like luxury pieces for a club that needs value.
I guess Holland values what Kassian brings cause he signed the contract:)
Rick Dhaliwal
@DhaliwalSports
·
3h
Hearing #Canuck
prospect F Aidan Mcdonough is under consideration for the US Olympic team.
Speaks volumes about his development and growth at Northeastern University.
13 goals in 18 games this season.
Wow.. yawn
who?
A 6’2″ 205 power forward who leads Northeastern University in goals and points.
Hockey East is a tough gig.
While he is a fine mid-range prospect, for context, this is his 22 year old season and he has 4 assists to go with those goals for 17 points in 18 games.
Cooper Marody had 51 points in 40 games in his 21 year old season (a year younger) and, in his 22 year old season, he had turned pro and was over a PPG in the AHL a fairly major step up from Hockey East.
How did he do at the Olympics?
I have it on good authority that Aidan McDunna has hired Brogan “legitimate prospect” Rafferty as a skills coach and anti-ageing necromancer.
He’s 22. Old for a prospect. Marody is 22.
Same draft as Raphael Lavoie although 155 spots lower.
I’d put my money on the college boy.
For additional context, Lavoie is almost a full year younger that the college kid.
Quinn Hughes is almost a full year younger than Evan Bouchard.
We all have bias. I wish the young man well, and have been guilty many times of overrating prospects.
Yeah but LT, let’s be honest, you’ve never thrown out a whopper like Brogan Rafferty before. Your overrating has a certain ‘based on reality’ feel to it, comparatively speaking.
Then reneg when you are proved wrong, of course….
Any forward prospect in NCAA after sophomore year their numbers are very very suspect.
Talk about meandering.
Staying in college when you have a slim chance making it is probably wise.
Petrov has an assist so far as North Bay leads 2-1 in the second.
While it won’t count in the stats dept., Petrov scored in the shootout as North Bay wins 4-3.
In his last 7 periods, Bryan Rust has 7 goals and 3 assists.
This should come as no surprise, since Rust never sleeps.
BOO! Actually, that’s very good. But BOO!
Also on a recent tear for the Pens is Evan Rodrigues, who has 5+2 in his last three games.
No word on whether he’s related to legendary golfer Chai-Chai Rah-dri-gweez 😀
Astonishing Hard Times Return to This team.
October/November 15 – 5
December/January 3 – 9 – 2
1st: Lost starter and Holland had no adequate replacement aside from known liability Mister K.
2nd: Lose top defencemen Keith and Nurse. Suddenly throwing rookies back into the furnace like the good old days of Lowe+MacT.
3rd: Not sure at all about this one, but the coach seems to have lost the room.
“Can’t anyone here play the game?”
Does anyone know why the game yesterday wasn’t postponed
I thought the league was making a big deal about limited fans and The game had none
Wednesday Night Hockey.
Some marquee games going ahead to satisfy broadcasters.
Follow the dollars
Matt Boldy and Marco Rossi making their debuts tonight with the Wild.
Boldy was a Gregor favourite as was Rossi in their draft class.
Be interesting to see how they fare.
Looks like Boldy got his moneys worth from buying all his family tix
Rossi is electrifying. Also received a nice batch of myocarditis after he got vaxxed. Hopefully fully recovered and puts up a crooked number.
Lights out in the AHL.
23 points in 21 games.
If that’s lights out, what do you call Jack Quinn?
Looking great.
He got myocarditis before vaccines were available …
https://theathletic.com/news/wilds-marco-rossi-opens-up-about-heart-condition-that-forced-him-off-the-ice/oYYjA2KvEaol/
He got Myocarditis from COVID, not from the vaccine.
Anti vax stance spreading misinformation . . .
Shocking.
I did some research and I think Rossi took the Archibald vaccine….and got myocarditis. Either way, I know the government is involved.
I feel like it is only a matter of time now before Kassian is traded. Days, maybe hours. Every loss brings the moment closer.
…And there was great rejoicing (right?!)
Can’t see much of a market for Kass at his price tag???
Selling him by the lb?😉
And it will be painfully underwhelming. The only way a Kassian trade is useful is if he is jettisoned with Koskinen and a 1st for someone like Ullmark/Swayman (hello Tukka) or someone of that ilk
All it takes is for one nutty GM to over-value his intangibles. Someone once payed a first round pick for Ryan Reeves … oh wait … Rutherford is the GM in Vancouver now.
Dont see them wanting more goalers
My deepest condolences, LT.
What do you mean?
Now LT gets to be flown into NYC for meetings and staff parties!
I have an “all access” NYT account, I wonder if this means The Athletic will be part of the package or if it will still be extra?
If you have to ask the question . . .
😉
The official release on the NYT acquisition of the the Athletic.
https://investors.nytco.com/news-and-events/press-releases/#data-item=The-New-York-Times-Company-to-Acquire-The-Athletic
One note from the reals”
“The Times Company expects the acquisition will be dilutive to The New York Times Company’s operating profit for approximately three years, as it scales subscriptions and builds an advertising business, and accretive thereafter.”
It appears they plan to have ads on the Athletic.
Boo (not to you posting, but to ads on The Athletic).
Might be a deal breaker for me.
Ads are a deal-breaker?
LT, ads on here have become in demand all of a sudden…..
I am 100% kidding – that was 100% in jest. I have promised to try and lay off the bickering but that was too easy!
It’s like cable TV.
If you pay a couple hundred a month to get channels and then STILL have to watch commercials, you’re being taken advantage of. See ya later.
If you pay Netflix $20/month they don’t subject you to ads because you’re already paying for the service.
If LT charged $20/ month to access the site and still inundated us with ads, I would expect his audience would erode.
And still you’re bickering.
I’m not bickering at all.
I was making a very lighthearted joke.
My goodness.
Just got this email from the Athletic.
“Today marks an incredible milestone for The Athletic. We are thrilled to announce that we have entered into an agreement to be acquired by The New York Times Company, a transaction that is expected to close in the first quarter of 2022.
The New York Times Company has set the standard for excellence in journalism, and as we look towards the future, their support will enable us to continue producing the best sports coverage on earth for an even wider audience.
Nothing about your The Athletic subscription is changing at this time. We will continue to invest in our world-class newsroom and the local and national coverage you can’t get anywhere else.
We cannot mark this important moment without offering our profound gratitude to you, our subscribers. When we founded the company in 2016, we hoped to become the sports page for every city worldwide. Your readership and unwavering support have allowed us to hire the best people in the business who in turn create the best sports content in the world.
Here’s to the future of The Athletic with The New York Times Company behind us. Thank you for believing in the power of great sports journalism and for supporting us as we embark on this new chapter. Onward!”
Adam & Alex
Co-Founders of The Athletic
Just noticing… “Does the 1st round pick need to be lottery protected”
HAhahahahaaaa. I know you weren’t kidding, but it still struck me as humorous.
If only MAF was priced like a rental. A 2023 2nd and a 2024 3rd.
Alas, not gonna happen….wouldn’t be prudent.
It’s funny, I was looking at the Kuemper trade yesterday and noticed that Colorado top 10 protected the 1st they sent to Arizona.
That stuff is just good business, and it’s plain overconfidence for any GM to believe they know how the season is going to go before the games are decided.
I feel like LT mentioning it carries more weight than a GM actually doing it.
On MAF, we’ll see what the price is once the deadline gets closer. How he’s playing and how Smith/Koskinen/Skinner are playing. It’s far from certain that MAF costs a 1st, wherever he ends up in the spring.
In other news, Nikita Kucherov is expected to return to the lineup for the Tampa Bay Lightning against the Calgary Flames at Amalie Arena on Thursday .
🙂
I can’t phantom giving up a the 1st round pick to rent a 37 year old goalie having an up and down season in general let alone without giving Stuart Skinner a run of starts (i.e. 6-7 out of 10) once the schedule gets back up and running.
I can get behind giving Skinner the net. I mentioned yesterday that a Skinner / Smith tandem also gives you a window into that possibility for next season.
But if Skinner isn’t the answer this year, I think you have to pay the price for Fleury. We only have Drai for 3 more seasons FFS – the die is cast and we need to be all in.
Price’s contract isn’t pretty but if they’re going for MAF they should really see what Montreal is doing, Kosk, Barrie, picks, Bourg, picks.. Price, Petry, Gallaghers are all sitting there for a team to add.
A goalie isn’t going to change their fate
Maybe win them a round, but the on Holland is depleted again for when there is a real chance
I would let them run. Use what you have and if they can push great and I think it is actually better development for the team as a whole
Nobody is going to win it for them, no white knights riding in can do it. A goalie and a D doesn’t change the team play enough to win a cup so why do it?
Maple Leafs place Nick Ritchie on waivers.
Dud for three teams. The OIlers keep te-signing their Nick Ritchie…i.e. Kassian.
https://theathletic.com/2863292/2021/10/06/edmonton-oilers-2021-22-season-preview-playoff-chances-projected-points-roster-rankings/
From Dom’s season preview way back on October 6th. His model had the Oilers at 6th overall but thought this was worth noting [I’ve edited for clarity at the end]:
The team’s goaltending is also expected to be strong though that comes with a massive but. Mike Smith was sensational last season against all odds and the model expects him to deliver another strong season as an above average starter.
But the model isn’t age adjusted for goalies and Smith is 39 now. It’s very difficult to expect a repeat of last season because of that. He ranked seven in the league with 8.9 goals saved above expected thanks to a .923 save percentage and that’s the season that holds the most precedent for future projections. Considering he was largely negative in the two prior seasons, it’s hard to have too much faith in Smith and definitely not as much as the model currently has.
One would’ve hoped that the team had a solid backup plan in case of disaster rather than roll the dice again on Mikko Koskinen, yet here we are. Koskinen has been very up and down in his career so far posting a .917 save percentage in 2019-20 and a .900 last season.
Which goalie shows up is hard to tell, but he’s hardly a safe bet and that adds even more risk to the team’s bottom line. Edmonton looks like a group that can easily outscore its problems, but it shouldn’t be in that predicament to begin with.
What hurts most, though, is the defence in front of those goalies and that’s the major difference between Edmonton and the top five teams in the league.
The remaining five teams ranked ahead of them in the model rank first, second, third, fourth and 10th in value from their defencemen having star power, depth and a good mix of two-way talent. Edmonton is low on all three and it’s why the team’s D group ranks 25th overall.
Dom’s model now has the Oilers ranked 15th at 94 points with ANA, WPG, DAL and LAK all within easy striking distance.
It would seem he identified the issues with his pre-season caveats.
On Stauffer today Laraque calling out Oilers goaltending as really bad. Advocating for a deal to trade for Price. 35 yrs old with 4 yrs left at over $10 mil a year???? That would be a ballsy move!
It’s okay to call a stupid idea a stupid idea!
That’s because it’s not possible to do so for any specific goalie or even any specific team.
I no longer care to add at the deadline. Not a scoring winger; Not a 2LD; Not even a goalie.
We’re going to make the playoffs but not the conference finals. So,
The answer lies within. Play the young guns.
Keep your 1st round picks. Keep your powder dry. Wait for the summer attrition ( Koskinen, Kass, Barrie, Ryan, Turris, Russell, all gone )
Nuge and Kassian on the 3rd line with a special guest.
Hyman McLeod JP
Foegele Draisaitl Yamamoto
Nuge McDavid Kassian
Perlini Shore(OZdraws)/Ryan(DZdraws) Sceviour
Benson
Nurse Bouchard
Keith Ceci
Niemelainen Barrie
Broberg Russell
Lagesson
(Nuge and Foegele are interchangeable)
Skinner 50% of starts.
Smith 50% of starts
Move Kassian & Barrie at the deadline or in the summer.
Replaced by Holloway and Broberg (on the right side) or a legit 2nd pair 2RD
In Dana Carvey’s George Bush Sr. voice “Not gonna happen!” “Wouldn’t be prudent!”
You are going to have to attach significant assets to Kassian in order to dump that contract. Maybe they buyout Kassian.
I imagine Barrie is still tradeable as many teams will want to improve their special teams. But, I would not be surprised if it still required a sweetener. Especially with Ken “can’t get’em for free” Holland.
I would go one step further … this stretch has really hurt their chance to even be a playoff team. I’m not at all ready to assume that they will make the playoffs now … in absence of a serious win streak to end the month of January, I would advocate that the Oilers go in to full seller mode.
Vets always look shinier at the trade deadline … other GMs will be more easily convinced to take bad deals on if they feels they are just one more veteran player from being a contender.
Move out Kassian, Keith, Barrie, Shore, Ryan, Koekoek, Smith. The picks you get back are less important than the cap space you liquidate.
Let the kids play and see what you have in them. Move on from Tippet, give Gulatzan the reigns for the rest of the season … if he’s not the answer, then hire a new coaching staff in the off season.
I’m with you on this Diablo – the early start was a mirage and this is the real team. Continued sub-mediocrity and no playoffs. Clean house as much as possible, don’t give up draft picks and get some fricking executives who know it’s 2022!
I don’t think any of these players would move at the deadline.
No one is going to do us any favours and take over the term on Smith, Kassian, or Keith.
I can’t imagine any serious playoff team wanting Ryan or Shore.
Koekoek might be worth a sixth rounder for an extra d man, but he has an extra year on the ticket too. That would be a deterrent for other teams.
Each of those players referenced have term and those aren’t the type of players/contracts generally moved in-season at the deadline.
Each of Ryan, Shore and Koekkoek can be buryable in the minors so I guess that a buying team could take them on but, of course, they aren’t very good. Maybe Ryan can fetch a C prospect if his game recovers. Maybe Koekkoek, seems unlikely though.
Kassian and Keith have negative value – maybe a team like Arizona would take Keith on given he’s only paid $1.5MM for next season but (a) the Oilers would have to pay and (b) Keith has a NMC and certainly would not agree.
I am just as happy to see the Oilers struggling and being forced to play the bottom 9 forwards with an amount of ice time that gives them a true shot to reveal to us just what they are or are becoming, as I would be getting heroic performances from McDrai and Smith to defeat the Leafs 4 to 3 in OT.
I don’t think this type of reveal would have happened under Tippett if his hand were not forced. I wonder if it opens his eyes to a new way forward? He’s a smart guy; Can he overcome some things that his experience has burnt into his psyche (vets limit mistakes)? Can he see that it’s possible that assuming/embracing the risk posed by inexperienced players, ( Bouchard, McLeod, Broberg, Neimelien, Skinner, Yamo) could yield above average returns on the investment.
I mean, what exactly has he got to lose? He’s in the twilight of his career, and he’s got a GM who is preaching the gospel to anyone who will listen, “Salvation needs to come from within”.
The Perlini’s. Sceviour’s, Kassian’s, Shore’s of the world need to play regular minutes in order to get into the flow of the game.
Would anyone trade Yamamoto right now? I would not. Is anyone not praying that what we’ve seen in the last 4 games is what Duncan Keith is capable of?
A balanced roster means balancing time on ice. Let them play through their mistakes instead of playing in fear of making a mistake.
Reward strong efforts like we’re seeing from Yamo, JP, McLeod ,Bouchard, with real PP time. Not just the last 20 seconds of the 2 minute power play. BUILD THEM UP.
GET SKINNER MORE STARTS!
Something like Hyman McLeod JP as the 3 rd line (call it the second line if it makes you feel better) and go from there.
This would have the added benefit of having a fresher, stronger, more aggressive McDavid or Draisaitl playing 22 or 23 minutes a night. And hitting the turbo button in overtime.
Please Baby Jesus. Let something click inside of Tippetts gray matter. Never stop learning.
Last night’s opposition is a good example of a team that’s gone from strength to strength in goal with Andersen and Campbell. In both cases, they identified solid talent that was road blocked in another org and they were willing to part with valuable picks or prospects to properly address the most important position of the hockey club.
Right now Spencer Knight is backup to Bobrovsky, he of the lux contract. Vanecek is backup to Samsonov despite doing well as a starter last season. Same for Georgiev, Vladar and Driedger. These are all cost controlled tenders that are likely ready to thrive in the right situation with a starters role.
Just like the GM and HC hires, we don’t need yesterday’s guy with the famous reputation. We need tomorrow’s guy that’s on the cusp of emerging. Ranford is the poster boy for this approach.
He’s anointed as Florida’s goalie of the future but with Bobrovsky hogging the starts now, would Florida pull the trigger on Knight if you dangled Puljujarvi? Being in win now mode, I think they might. If not, move to the next guy on the list and try again.
This problem has lingered forever because this team has been unwilling to pay the price to go and get a guy who’s emerging in real-time. Enough already.
The issue is that knight won’t come cheap and in fact none of them will. The Keith trade continues to bite us since we can’t trade our 2nd or 3rd pick in this draft, when those are prime currency to acquire those prospects.
Another issue is that you trade from a position of “meh” not strength. Who’s our top line RW when you trade Puljujarvi? Kassian? Yamamoto? Sceviour? Turris?
The list is pretty short, pretty fast.
You mean Talbot, and Scrivens…
Random question:
Is there an easy way to see faceoff win percent with winger on ice?
I might honestly factor that into making choices on who rnh’s wingers are.
My gut says foegle, puj, Hyman and yam likely boost
Benson plays a great game, gets Shore and Kassian as linemates the next night and now Perlini is being pushed ahead of him again for another random inconsistent show up.
When does Bensons eye for goal mouth passes get a look with the available skilled talent.. Or are we going to have to watch another team give him an honest chance to succeed?
It won’t happen. Benson’s career looks to be Edmonton not qualifying him and he lands somewhere like Jersey and blows the doors off ala Jesper Bratt.
Or he could end up like the other 80% …. IN Europe by 27
THIS!
I think, for now, with McDavid and Drai both in the lineup, we’ll see McLeod/Benson as a 3rd line duo – wasn’t really available last night with McLeod as the 2C (although I was hoping for Benson to be 2LW and Foegele 3LW)
Perlini has scored 48 goals in the bigs. Benson? I’ll let you take a guess. But one of them is not like the other.
Has Benson ever been given the opportunity that Perlini has even by the club that drafted him!?!
Perlini scores a goal every 10 games and absolutely nothing else. Yes scoring goals is great but has anyone ever seen him make a pass to set up someone else.. Benson is doing it all the time, imagine what the skilled guys could do with a fella that loves to pass to scoring areas…or Perlini muffin shots from far out..
Benson like McDavid did needs to develop a decent shot
That is a learnable skill and would open the game up for him like it did for Connor
Im not comparing them, but first year Connor tried to stick handle it into the net
If the opp knows you won’t shoot it’s much easier to defend
The existing roster was highly effective against good competition through 20 games. Can we expect them to resume this level of success at some point?
Why do we HAVE to do something? Why is the current performance assumed to persist indefinitely?
This isn’t a Ronco Rotisserie. You don’t set it and forget it.
They shouldn’t have even stood still during those first 20 games…they should have added after 10.
I believe it is less the roster than the coaching staff being unable to adjust the game plan after the opposition shuts down their current plan. Sport somewhat like war dictates that if you continue using the same plan you are doomed to fail!
Were they highly effective or just fortunate on the PP and 29 and 97 going supernova? This team has zero depth. The only way this team succeeds is with enough players that RNH and Hyman can play on the 3rd line.
They weren’t as good as their record in the 1st 20 and prob aren’t as bad as the last 15. Somewhere in the middle.
But if you do Nothing??? KH was gonna add before the deadline anyway … so now he just has to do 4 weeks sooner
Remember. 1st 20 gms.
McD & Leon on pace for 170 pts.
PP – 45%
Not sustainable
The PP was actually above 50% for a long stretch.
That masked a whole lot of pain.
The league had the officials stop calling penalties when the Oilers were playing, with the exception of those against the Oilers!
This is true but also:
McDavid and Leon each producing at an 80-90 point pace
PP – 18%
That is also not sustainable.
In the first 20 games, the team rode unsustainable special teams to an unsustainable record. A 50% pp will cover up many sins.
The team has not had consistent secondary scoring all season.
All three goalies have posted mediocre to poor 5v5 sv% all season.
The teams underlying 5v5 numbers have been mediocre to poor all season. Especially with McD and Drai off the ice.
The team had no significant injuries for the first 20 games.
I do not think the current performance will persist indefinitely. The team is likely somewhere in the middle of the first 20 and the last 20. I.e. a toss-up to make the playoffs.
Also, Tip overplaying McD and Drai is going to hurt their performance as the season progresses (it is already happening).
When you look at TOI for the top 15 forwards. McDavid, Driasaitl and Ovi stand out.
a reasonable adjustment right now would be to get 97 and 29 below 20 minutes a night.
1.Right now it is not working
2.Both player better off the rush and above the goal line.
3.Insert players that will cycle below the dots into those extra minutes and we will be harder to play against and more structure as the puck exits the offensive zone.
4.Play-off hockey will need more of the line up contributing.
One non-directly-Oilers thing to note to provide a bit of a ray of sunshine is the Johnny Gaudreau resurgence in a contract year.
He’s looking at a Drai-level contract which will be in addition to the Matt Tkachuk contract and lets not forget he needs to be qualified at $9MM for the flames to keep his rights.
Treliving has some big re-ups to manage this off-season (or before).
Good thing he isn’t carrying millions in dead cap on his roster.
He’ll move Monahan and clear up $6 million.
Yeah, their cap situation is good overall. 32 + million next year to resign Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Mangipane and Kylington. They’ll need a few more dmen too. Probably doable, especially if they move contract or two.
Bottom pairing D men are cheap and easy to find in the offseason..
They also have Valimaki and Connor Mackey playing well in the AHL.
They would have to give up assets to move monahan at 6 million.
Yeah…I expect so.
They have a bunch of forward and defensive prospects they could dangle..shouldn’t be a problem.
It’s weird, but I was kinda surprised to see Tipp call the timeout last night. Not sure why, but I think I’ve watched games where I’m expecting one and don’t see him call one. Also, Tipp was drawing up the play on the board for the players. Usually assistants are the ones that communicate this play during a timeout. Probably nothing, but it struck me as odd.
Gully wasn’t on the bench last night, usually that is his role that Tipp took over in his absence.
LT and crew – Question re: analytics
Why do these guys need a numbers guru rather than a computer program and someone who can interpret + has the ear of management? Those aren’t necessarily the same thing and the idea of needing one of the dozen or so people that everyone talks about sounds a lot like “the eye test”.
Those in this debate need to pick a lane.
Kenny has his APPLE-1 running all day and night.
No need for an Analytics team.
It probably says more about their commitment to analytics. The more you invest, the more committed you are.
You think you’d want 2-3 guys at least so it’s not totally siloed. Get the data, get a few analysts to look at it, see how hot the girlfriend is.
I thought despite the ‘troubles’ the team played a full game with good energy
In games that I criticize there are constant breakdowns in coverage and a lot of odd mans given up
Every team makes mistakes and blows coverage. The key is it can’t be chronic, and when it’s crunch time you tighten up as much as possible- game management
For me if the whole team plays like that, far better fundamentals and making basic plays NHLers are supposed to make, when the cavalry arrives they will climb to their real level, chasing a playoff spot they do have the ability to take
Assuming goalers can get to average
The puck luck thing is random, but I do believe that part of the reason you play a certain way is to help mitigate that
Good technique betters your odds in any sport, or endeavour really
They have not played with good fundamentals and have tried to cheat, pushing too much in the wrong way often
Lets hope they are all fully sick of this and stick to the good things, play their butts off, and trust the talent and details will get the (and us) what they want
I also thought the line changes were tidier and I think that reduces the D chaos we see a lot of
LT, you should include a game analysis of the coach along with all of the players . . .
Would like to see the CoH do it as well but it would just turn in to an exercise of questioning and pointing out bad decisions. You would rarely see a positive comment. We read enough about coaches mistakes here.
Back me up here, but I am noticing that the guys on the cusp of making careers vs the guys that are considered NHL guys have one difference.
The NHL guys continue to skate and stick handle, pass, check. They are consistently skating and doing something else. The tweeners do not do things at speed.
What I am noticing about Perlini and Benson is that they have a set of skills but they are not constantly moving their feet. They pause to read the play, or glide to pass. It is one key area of the bottom six that shows up when I watch that we have at least two spots where we do not have the depth. Benson is getting more dangerous and might learn the skill. He has the best guy to watch ever in McDavid as he is able to do unreal things at speed. Perlini seems to be understanding he has to shoot from everywhere, but doesnt seem to bring anything else. Scoring goals goes a long way as it is the hardest thing to do.
The Oil are fragile right now and need some puck luck to break out the funk. They have been playing good hockey with some bad moments, or bad luck.
You’re seeing a symptom – not a cause.
What separates tweeners and NHLers is often knowing where to be, how to get there and what’s coming next in all likelihood. Hockey is not nearly as chaotic as people seem to think it is. It is something you can read and react to. The ones that climb to the top league in the world and stay there come in various forms – but almost all can do this better than those you’d watch in an AHL game.
Remember this guy: https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=43741 ?
Want to know why he could score 60 goals in nearly the best league in the world but couldn’t cut it in the top one? A bunch of people will say it was his skating or something like that – they’re wrong. All kinds of NHL scorers haven’t been able to skate worth a damn…but were efficient as hell and smarter than the defenders trying to stop them.
Lastly – no, the Edmonton Oilers are not playing good hockey and haven’t for 15+ games now. Compared to themselves when playing well they absolutely stink. They are not playing to their strengths or dictating the play. They are chasing. They are behind. And it’s not because they aren’t moving their feet. This is how many observers get tricked into the “they tried hard but lost” narrative when it is almost always wrong. They’re playing hideously inefficient hockey and not executing at near the level they were early. In short – it ain’t “luck” and almost never is.
Look at Leon’s trademark goals. The low shot. Examine those plays. Look at what is going on and when they work versus when they don’t. It’s an incredibly simple play and yet he’s about the only guy on the planet that does it with regularity. Try to understand why. It’s an interesting exercise. Shame we can’t do video sessions right here. That would make things really interesting.
Great post.
I miss when Wilde would post gif with markups to make his point on particular plays.
Kinger did videos for a while too which were always really interesting.
They don’t protect their own net, and they are soft as butter at opponents net. Perimeter hockey. Both ends.
I see what you are saying. To add to my point. Perlini and Benson are not playing at NHL speed or thought. Both have great attributes and necessary tools but both are not quite there in terms of true keepers. If you watch them though you will see they are not in a flow of the game and do play that catchup.
DEEP DIVE: Quick version
Very few teams can win with the Goalering LT has shown (rank 51,55,60 out of 77).
That’s on Kenny and needs to be addressed.
KEITH is decent (good?) As per LT.
I think they have enough quality D to play an effective Top 6. Playfair and Tippett need to figure it out.
As for the F’s; the Load up approach isnt working. Coach NEEDS to get more out of more players but to do that he needs to play more guys MORE OFTEN & with better players.
It is time for the 3C’s much discussed. Not in stone but as an example.
HYMAN-MCD-YAMAMOTO
FOEGELE-LEON-JP
MCLEOD-RNH-SCEVIOR
PERLINI-RYAN-KASSIAN
Give some balance so the Team has a chance to only give up 2 or 3 goals.
Since NOV.1 EDM has 2 wins when scoring less than 5!!!
My VOTE is bring in MAF and / or a new coach. Gives you a bump in SV% and a fresh set of eyes to balance out the F’s.
Fleury has been hot and cold this season and probably costs you a 1st. That’s not a price I would pay for a 37 year old rental goalie who hasn’t been consistent.
Do do keep running with what we have?
Honestly I think Holland waits. The reasoning will be that Smith came back before he was 100%, now he has 2 weeks to rest and get healthy before the stretch run. I don’t think we see another goalie until closer to the deadline, and then it’ll more likely be a veteran who is having a bit of a bounce back year: Holtby, Craig Anderson, Reimer or Halak – a small bet, in other words.
Skinner.
And to clarify I Am not excited about using the 1st (if thats the ask) … or MAF.
But I think they need to bring in a Goalie
I either leave McLeod at center or move him up. Something like:
Foegle drai yam
Mcleod McDavid Hyman
Benson rnh jp
Perlini Ryan sceviour
Mcdavid has two guys who have wheels and are defensively responsible.
Since RNH is out yam/drai seem to be kicking out jams a bit better.
I might consider perlini on drai’s, if he understood he needs to keep moving and also use his size to also screen and crash net on plays (if he wants to stay in the league he needs to at least be hungrier and muck harder – he does find soft ice and gave a great shot but his game needs to use his size more…hes often open and drai could probably find him often – slide benson down to 4th line in that case).
Puj and RNH are both defensively responsible and I think it makes sense to give puj honest run at driving a line and shooting more often. Benson and rnh are both decent at cycle and rnh use to have a snap shot that I haven’t seen much since he stopped being a center. Both he and puj could excel if they weren’t deferring to look for pass to drai or McDavid.
Spread ice time out more evenly and actually try something different instead of overload. Actually really try something different and give it a few games without blender.
Kassian is night in night out a non factor foe long enough, if something stagnated then you can debate tinkering with shore and him but I don’t think either of them bring enough potential positives to worry about them needing to play presently.
McLeod is a centre only. He is a puck transporter, and defensively aware in his own zone in space.
Don’t make a solid 3rd line centre prospect and make him into a lousy winger. McLeod is not and will never be an NHL calibre NHL winger. He just won’t.
This is why he slid to the 2nd round. He is a centre only with limited offensive upside, and without the skill set to be a winger.
But he should develop into a capable 3rd line centre, because he can skate, is defensively sound, and can transport the puck.
I didn’t notice it last night but went back to watch the replay after I listened to McCurdy mention it but Kyle Turris made a nice “skilled hands” play on the Perlini goal last night – a tough stretch pass up the boards by Koekkoek and Turris got a nice touch on in to allow the play to continue and Sceviour to make the play on the puck.
A couple games in a row where Turris has made a nice play on a goal for. He’s not doing much, shift to shift, but he’s not leaking goals like in the past and he’s making some subtle plays here and there.
As far as Perlini playing more, well, for me, if he plays like last night, he earns more ice. Problem is, he seems to have trouble stringing games together. Last night, he was moving his legs – using his speed to drive with the puck and aggressively forecheck. When he does that, he’s a good player but its not always (usually) there.
My post above speaks to a few bottom six/depth players and, as LT alluded to this morning, the bottom six have generally been doing their job over the last while – they are scoring some goals and generally sawing off on the goal share (or even winning goal share).
For the most part, its the top 6 that has been under water during the slump.
So weird.
So many players play well recently – both by eye and number – Perlini, Sceviour, Yamamoto, McLeod, Keith, Benson, etc., etc. – yet the Oilers are losing.
Being sewered by special teams – PP not rolling and not getting enough opportunities and the PK struggling wildly for a month.
Some tending issues as well.
Wild stuff.
Benson-Shore-Kassian
CF 32.49%
SF% 45.45%
xG 42.75%
Sure, Perlini-Sceviour-Turris had a decent night sawing off the dregs in possession and scoring a goal but, as Woodguy’s summary below shows, the bottom 6 remains a sinkhole.
The bottom six has not been a “sinkhole” over the last stretch and posting the on-ice metics for one line, for one game, provides no substance in the context of the last stretch of games.
Turris is still good for the occasional skill play, he’s got the hands and vision for it.
His skating is gone baby gone, it seems like he’s lost some power to his shot and he was never a great player defensively but my big issue with him is that he loses the puck as soon as he’s under the slightest pressure. Doesn’t even have to be a physical battle, he’s losing all of those, but even a guy closing in on him has him losing possession.
When he finds a little time and space he can still make plays but I just don’t think he adds enough to be in an NHL lineup. Even for a game here and there. And once the intensity goes up he’s a major liability.
But but but the shootouts.
Turris is second on the Oilers in P//60 at 5 on 5 over the last two games…….
“A reverse Wallenda”, beauty Lowetide.
The problem with the PP is they don’t get enough opportunities. When you get two PPs every three games, guys will get rusty. And unfortunately I don’t see the refs making a lot of blatantly missed calls lately.
I’m scared that Kenny is going to take the fall from grace of the team as validation of his incremental approach. Misevaluation of this team by Chiarrelli after his playoff run killed us then. Kenny’s misevaluation could kill it now. I get that GMs do things their way, but I wish they were more fluid and could realize what this team is in real time.
If Kenny isn’t careful, the DoD won’t be when we didn’t make the play-offs for ten years. It will be how we pissed having the world’s two best players up against the wall for ten years.
It’s still early and things can change, but this has the potential of making the DoD look like the good old days.
Bro, the damage is already done. The good ship Holland’s Oilers have set sail and there’s no fixing this mess.
The Oilers are in cap hell yet still don’t have a starting goalie nor a playable bottom six,or even a respectable blue line.
Next year we have a $9m cap hit for Darnell Nurse, we’ll be paying $11m for Nuge and Hyman, and $7.7m for Keith and Smyth.
Hyman is breaking down in real time.
Nurse isn’t a $9m defender.
Nuge can’t score goals and can only rack up power play assists.
Next season though, we have $2.75 m in dead cap between Neal and Lucic. $2.2m for Smyth, $1.25m for Ryan, $4.5 m for Barrie, and $5.5m for Keith.
Let’s call that mess $16m in cap for A 41 year old Mike Smith, 39 year old Keith, and 31 year old Barrie.
That’s just a disaster in cap management right there.
I do believe that cap management was a strange sail on the horizon for Kenny at Detroit. Now he’s the captain of a nuclear sub after being in charge of an all wooden galleon.
You forgot 2 more seasons of 31/32 year old Zack Kassian @ $3.2 million.
Players of his ilk generally are in the $1 million range.
Yeah, when you line all of those contracts up, it’s absolutely appalling cap management.
$24.9 m in cap for
Edit. There’s your forensic audit right there.
36 y/o Derek Ryan $1,25 m.
Death by paper cut.
I do not know if Holland is worse than Chia but the current state of the cap/contracts is the worst it has ever been.
Except he produces points per 60
He’s a bizarre player but rare, can play top 6, will fight, and is fast
After playoffs he’s tradeable, every summer some GM thinks his team got punked and looks for a heavy – see Ryan Reeves who is not nearly as good as Kassian at 1.75M
The only way is to connect on inexperience wingers in the draft and Hollands gives draft picks away like Christmas presents. Nuge Hyman Leon Connor these are their peak years and there being sewered
This is a middle of the pack team that should make the playoffs, but the team isn’t built for playoff success.
The team needs a change in structure with the number one focus being team defence. This will help with the lack of depth in the bottom 6 and poor goaltending.
I don’t care if it’s boring. Just win!
Those teams don’t win championships.
Structured teams that play team defence don’t win championships? OK then😄
Go look at the list of Stanley Cup Champions and tell me which teams were the Lou L Minnesota Wild reincarnate. It’s not about defence in the NHL. It’s about scoring depth. And a goalie.
Structured hockey = Minnesota. Gotcha 😉
Tampa Bay doesn’t play with structure?
I completely disagree. The problem this team has is that the entire focus of the non-McDavid and Draisatl lines is to avoid getting scored on. That doesn’t work, it is impossible to avoid getting scored upon all the time, it shortens the time you have to score, and makes you overly reliant on the power play. You need players who can score up and down the lineup, and you need a coach who will give them leeway.
If anything, this team is too focused on defense.
What?
This teams problem is they don’t score enough goals. And the reason they don’t score enough goals is that they select too much on defensive ability on the third and fourth lines, which doesn’t pay off. You need offense up and down the lineup to win.
Goaltending would help, but in terms of how the team plays the issue is they are too defensive.
I agree and if anything, last night highlighted this. There is a difference between “don’t get scored on” and “you have to score”. One of these will never win you games.
This is spot on. Tippett’s concern has always been to limit defensive mistakes — to him, they’re an unforgettable sin. Bear gave to pick away, and Tippett benched him. Same with Samurokov. The cost of this has been a bottom 6 so focused on not making defensive mistakes (which they make anyway), they don’t play to score.
And if you go back to near the end of the 15-5 times…I’m pretty sure you’ll find Tippett talking about how they were going to tighten up.
And tighten up they have indeed…
This team when functioning well does 2 things every game – generate penalties and score on the resultant powerplays. The rest can be medium and they will win. If either of these balls gets dropped – they are toast. They can even outscore a dogshit goaltending effort most games. It’s not ideal – but also means that plugging in one extra piece makes you rather special in a hurry.
this them doesn’t score enough 5v5 goals.
Structure matters. Who knew?
Apparently they’re playing too defensively 😄
We’re playing too defensively when we don’t have the defensive dogs to play that game. The point is that the bottom six is trying to stop all goals whilst scoring none themselves. Sacrificing offense for defense is as bad as the other way around.
It’s hubris to assume that our bottom six is anywhere near good enough to saw off defensively against the league’s best, especially on the road without last change.
I can’t remember the last time the Oilers were accused of playing “too defensively”. Maybe Detroit 2006? That didn’t work out well now did it😉
If I’m not mistaken, the bottom six 5 on 5 goal share has been quite solid to good over the last while.
The main issue recently has been the top six getting outscored (mainly the Drai line) and the PK being awful.
The team doesn’t score enough 5v5