I find myself conflicted this morning. I want to put the boots to running McDavid-Draisaitl on the same line on a night when Larry from accounting made the pre-game skate because he plays center in beer league. That’s a damn ridiculous decision. Come on.
On the other hand, the Oilers five-on-five GA-60 (2.16) and expected GA-60 (2.26) are both inside the top 10 in the NHL. Last year, the GA-60 (2.76) was No. 26 and the expected GA-60 (2.63) was No. 13. This is a small sample (seven games), but it’s better than a year ago. Work to do, but Babcock has some positive stories to tell.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN OCTOBER
- At home to: Vancouver (Expected 1-0) Actual 0-0-1
- On the road: Vancouver (Expected 1-0) Actual 1-0-0
- At home to: Seattle (Expected 1-0) Actual 1-0-0
- On the road to: Anaheim, San Jose, Los Angeles (1-1-1) Actual 3-0-0
- At home to: Mammoth (1-0) Actual 0-1-0
- On the road to: Mammoth (0-0-1)
- At home to: Minnesota, Carolina, Toronto, Detroit, Calgary (3-2)
- On the road to: New York Islanders (1-0)
- Expected Record: 9-3-2, 20 points in 14 games
- Actual Record: 5-1-1, 11 points in seven games
THE NUMBERS
- Podkolzin-McDavid-Draisaitl 16:36, 12-4 shots, 1-0 goals, 69X
- Formenton-Michaels-Joseph 8:37, 4-2 shots, 0-1 goals, 54X
- Hallander-Frederic-Kapanen 4:40, 2-2 shots, 12X
- Jones-Frederic-Kapanen 3:52, 0-1 shots, 62X
- Howard-Samanski-Hallander 2:25, 1-1 shots, 23X
The top unit rolled again, The two coaches ran power v power (McDavid versus Schmaltz, with Sergachev-Weegar pairing) and the Oilers came out on top. Mammoth are tight checkers, not as much time and space, plus it was a rough game with too many minutes for the stars. Those heavy minutes impact this game and the next one. Always do.
The Michaels line sruprised me. The trio played 4:34 versus the Trochek line, and went 2-1 shots, 0-1 goals and 65X. That’s solid. The line scored an even strength goals as well, impressed with this young player.
The top line had six HDSC’s, the other lines three HDSC (Joseph, Frederic and Kapanen). There are good complementary players here, but Draisaitl needs to go into the middle. Playing Frederic at center was a choice, but why not run him with one of McDavid or Draisaitl for a couple games? Better yet, Ike Howard!!
If the regular season doesn’t matter, and playing 97-29 together last night indicates a belief this is an extended exhibition season, why not Frederic or Howard in the top six?
- Ekholm-Bouchard 17:27, 12-5 shots 1-0 goals 67X
- Shea-Murphy 12:45, 2-3 shots, 53X
- Mukhamadullin-Emberson 10:12, 3-7 shots, 0-1 goals 32X
- Shea-Bouchard 3:33, 1-0 shots 25X
- Devon Levi 20 of 23, .870
The top pairing was effective, the second pair did well considering the level of competition and the forwards in front of them (mostly Samanski line). I like Shea but he really has to be the creative one on the pairing and I think he defers to Murphy (a mistake).
Third pair is a problem, but early results suggest it isn’t Ty Emberson’s fault. Here are the GA-60 through seven games for blue:
- Evan Bouchard 0.92
- Mattias Ekholm 0.98
- Ty Emberson 1.05
- Ryan Shea 1.43
- Connor Murphy 2.33
- Jake Walman 5.25
- Shakir Mukhamadullin 7.31
Walman and Mukhamadullin have to be better. Way better. The Dickinson injury is just a continuation of veteran acquisitions not being able to answer the bell physically after being acquired at great expense.
On the Lowdown today, we will be joined by Steve Lansky from Inside the Truck podcast to talk about the Oilers-Mammoth. We’ll also help tee up the Elks game at Commonwealth. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube.
It’s a 10-hour drive from Bakersfield to Salt Lake. Hopefully, Clattenburg got an early start this morning and arrives in time to work on faceoffs.
I do hope they spit them up. Hyman back means Mcdavid has his security blanket. So maybe they can put it together, assuming Michaels line stays together.
Howard-McDavid-Hyman
Podz-Draisatl-Kapanen
Formenton-Michaels-Joseph
Hallander-Samanski-Frederic
this can work
Again, last night’s result is a testament to the incompetence of Bowman.
The Oilers more genuine offensive quality. Stop the delusions that any exists on what was dressed last night on the bottom three lines.
It is not about playing Draisatl and McDavid apart. It is about finding actual quality on the second and thrid lines in terms of offence at the NHL level. Not the AHL level or the NCAA>
Another point – how can Walman and Dickinson be injured incessantly? Or even Hyman and RNH?
Is that all part of some perverse intention to play the “challenged” to see how “challeged” they really are?
Utterly ridiculous.
But expect inaction and decline.
Words to live by: “what would Vegas do”? Inaction and auditions not.
This team is going nowhere unless they get healthy.
Last night was a great game considering the injury issues.
This team is in survival mode until it get healthy. So far Babcock has done a great job scraping together points without a second line.
Spec asked coach last night if Dickinson’s ankle was becoming a concern and coach said not because its not his ankle that kept him out last night.
Not sure if it being a different/new injury is a good or bad thing – I think its “good”?
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Coach said he played the big guys too much last night but said “I’m trying to survive” which I interpreted as meaning getting through the injuries.
He keeps talking about getting people back soon and being deeper – here is hoping it actually happens at some point.
Wasn’t the Dickinson injury from blocking a slapper versus LA or did I imagine that? You’d think it’s bruising (and not a broken bone).
Older players get injured more often. We shouldn’t count on Nuge, Hyman, Walman, Dickinson and others over 30 because the miles on them and inability to recover quickly is a thing. Oilers haven’t been adding youth, which makes it doubly difficult. Look at the team they lost last to last night. Young young young.
Team quality of comp has to be factored into the first 6 games. The quality is high bar from last night and the next 5 games. This sample size will probably give us more answers about this team than the first 6 games.
See what Babcock comes up with.
But all of us as fans for many years, know the ONE TRICK PONY (ONE LINE PONY) will not hold up against the Top Teams with depth throughout their lineups.
Ryan Nugent Hopkins may have been the difference between a win and a loss tonight.
His special teams play, in particular on the PP and the 6 on 5 is sorely missed.
Last night did seem like a nice opportunity to split McDavid and Drai but, at the end of the day, the Oilers outscored 2-1 at 5 on 5. They lost this game on special teams. clearly
We don’t talk enough about Walman being out. Yes, I know he struggled early but he was better in his time with Emberson (as opposed to Shakir on his right side) and is simply a better and more valuable player than Shakir right now – he also could have helped the PP2 time – I mean, with Ekholm in the box, they had Shea and Shakir out there.
They could have outscored by a wider margin, and unlocked some complementary offense. That was a poor decision by Babcock, and he could easily have reduced wear on both 97 and 29 by splitting them up. Theres no way to sugarcoat stubborn, believe e. I watched MacT do the same blasted things 20 years ago. WHY did MacT put Scott Ferguson on the other wing? Because he didn’t want Jani Rita on his team. Why does Babcock play Howard on the fourth line when the team needs skill forwards for the top six? This isn’t a difficult answer.
Its been commented on already that Shakir is an incomplete player. Frankly, as a throw in for dumping the 9.25M contract, he is better than could be expected, but he is still incomplete. The second goal against (I believe, I was listening as I was driving) was on him not playing NHL defence.
If he is a developing bottom pair D, then we have to live with the warts while he improves. The real question to consider is if he is continuing the make the same mistakes 30 games down the road, or if there is a measured improvement. Meanwhile, if the other 6 D (Bouch, Ek, Walman, Shea, Emberson, Murphy) play at their expected level, he is not a bad 7D to have on hand.
That goal was brutal and could be about miscommunication between Shaky and the forward running backtrack, but imo that’s on the D.
I can’t remember which player said this first – I’ve heard it a few times from NHL coaches and defensemen: “Never trust forwards.” (i.e. make certain yourself)
Paying first round picks for declining 3rd line centers has really hurt this team. First of all you should only trade first round pick for top 6 F or Top 4 D. We really could have used those assets to bring in a good forward.
hope Babcock can dump Walman on someone in the offseason. Can’t stay healthy enough to contribute and Shea seems like will steal his lunch
even though Levi is small he looks bigger than skinner in net
Prospectimation!
Another busy day means little preamble.
Everyone is in action but Berry.
Games start at 5 p.m. Maleb time
For a 24 year old player if you look at his hockey DB Makhamudullin hasn’t played alot of hockey. He’s played almost 90 NHL games and 80 some odd AHL games and he had one full KHL season before that. I suspect he needs to play another 160 games to get it and may be a servicable defenseman after that. But the Oilers aren’t really in develop young defenseman mode.
Agreed, it’s the old “at bats” thing again. We’ll know a lot more by the end of this season me thinks, but as you say we’re not really a development team.
All teams that want to stay competitive need to develop players as they go. The change in the salary landscape is going to affect what teams do as well. A lot of the league doesn’t have the revenue to spend to the upper limit with it rising so quickly. We are lucky that as it stands the Oilers can, and the owner is on board
The counter to my point is that perhaps the Oilers can start getting better experienced players from teams that can’t afford to pay them, so the need to develop players lessens
Definitely a costly poor play on the goal against but as the game went on I thought he actually had a lot of good events.
Last year the oil had to survive those poor play goals against by vet defenders. So many lack of awareness/ poor stick tie ups / poor box outs/ lost battle net front goals against.
I wasn’t a fan of John Mayer until I saw him live at New Orleans Jazz Fest all the way back in 19 dickety-doo (2013). I kind of found his recordings to be a bit meh (I’m usually on the rockier/edgier/weirder side of the ledger with what I listen to). Then, under duress from my good friend he insisted that we check out John Mayer’s set, and man was I surprised. Live John Mayer is a completely different beast from the recordings. All I’ll say is the tone, that guitar tone. Slow Dancing in a Burning Room was an absolute standout from the show.
Now speaking of tone, I did see BB King earlier that day and despite being in his latter days man could he still perform. The voice, the aura, Lucille.
Fantastic festival in a fantastic city. One day I’ll return.
My ex was a big fan of Mayer, about 15 years ago we watched his show in Vegas, he was great. I knew a couple of his tunes and we enjoyed his show.
The next night we went to the Keith Urban show, as a rock guy, I didn’t know his music at all. His show was incredible. Not only is he a great song writer and solid vocalist, he is also an excellent guitarist.
An up and coming group called Lady Antebellum opened the show, later the 3 of them, plus Urban sang “Seven Bridge Road”, it gave me chills.
That dude really knows how to put on a show.
Why aren’t the goalie numbers presented as 5 on 5?
This feels like a situation of how long will Babcock be stubborn and run the Glimmer Twins with three 3rd lines until the losses pile up. If we start winning again with this formula, the coach will stick to his guns.
Watching the Mammoth limit Mc-Drai to one goal is the tactic all teams will attempt to replicate but so far they’re the only team to execute it successfully.
An elite coach will recognize that the current lines won’t work long term within a few games. Is Babcock still an elite coach?
I think you are overly kind to the three 4th lines.
— yeah I’m with you and LT on this.
— I could literally do a search and cut and paste from previous years my same comment :” while it’s great to see McDrai light it up together and have impressive stats and do incredible things in regular season they will be shut down by strong teams when it matters in long playoff rounds making the team easy to beat: limit McDrai and the Oil can’t beat you”
— it’s rinse and repeat no matter the coach
— is it because Conner and Drai aren’t really as elite as C if they don’t have each other and can’t coach up two wingers each?
— Is Nuge just not good enough to be a plus C on a third line and coach up two wingers?
— Mayne this year will be different and I get the push back : “yeah we are missing wingers” and “yeah Babs says on road we split them up”.
— Babs : he observes “I played McD too much”
— I don’t know they are just going to be easy to game strategy to beat again in playoffs unless it changes.
— Conner isn’t going to shoot 25% all year and way less in the playoffs.
— 10 games after the last of the injured players come back we should have an idea of what it looks like.
So what’s up with Walman?
When Babcock got hired, one of the narratives was that he gets stubborn on players. Once you’re in his dog house, you stay in his dog house.
7 games in and it appears to me that Walman will be there soon enough, unless he gets his shat together and quick.
I guess its a blessing that the Oilers biggest ? on defense is 3LHD. Which is definitely the easiest problem to solve.
Shakir is a problem. He needs to play big minutes down in the AHL. He’s not an NHL defenseman. Although I still believe he has the potential to be.
I’m not sure he would make it through waivers. Tough spot for the managers because I agree he needs more AHL and lots of TOI
Robertson with NYR was on waivers last week, great size and skating, $850 K salary.
I was shocked he went unclaimed. He is a budding future solid NHL dman, he is further ahead than SM (and he isn’t a shrub) and is a local kid, not sure why no one snagged him, but that is a swing and a miss by every NHL GM.