In pretty much every category, the Edmonton Oilers were superior on Wednesday night. Goals: 5-2. Shots: 50-36. High-danger scoring chances: 19-6. Takeaways: 16-5. If you’ve watched this team over the last decade, the things that look different are everywhere. Organized breakouts, dogged puck pursuit, aggressive routes to the net on jailbreaks, it’s the best five-on-five version of the Oilers since Craig MacTavish, maybe before. Music! Maybe this impressive run to the playoffs will be followed by an impressive playoff run. If Jay Woodcroft is opposite-Oilers, and he surely is, this is possible.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Connor McDavid’s outscoring reaches peak with Jay Woodcroft as Oilers coach
- Lowetide: Is Ken Holland’s unusual approach to team building close to success for Oilers?
- Lowetide: Recent rash of injuries to Oilers prospects a familiar story
- Lowetide: Ryan McLeod’s comparables are encouraging for young Oilers centre
- DNB & Lowetide: Why the Jesse Puljujarvi criticism in Edmonton misses the mark
- Lowetide: Evan Bouchard’s deployment is working, despite play in Wild loss
- Lowetide: Evander Kane’s scoring prowess and what he brings the Oilers
- DNB: Connor McDavid’s Hart case
- DNB: Dylan Holloway call-up? Jay Woodcroft extension? Zack Kassian trade? Oilers mailbag
- Lowetide: Stock up or down for every prospect in the Oilers system
- Lowetide: Making the final call on the Oilers 2017 draft
- Lowetide: Early look at Oilers free-agent targets for 2022 offseason
- DNB: Should Oilers budget for Evander Kane beyond this season?
- Lowetide: 7 Condors who could impact Oilers’ fortunes in the playoffs
- DNB: How Jesse Puljujarvi, as a player and person, became perfect fit for Oilers
- Lowetide: Revisiting the Oilers’ choice of Evan Bouchard in the 2018 draft
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2021
WHAT TO EXPECT FROM APRIL
- At home to: STL (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 1-0-0)
- On the road to: ANA, SJS, LAK (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 3-0-0)
- At home to: COL (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-0-1)
- On the road to: MIN, NAS (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
- At home to: VEG, DAL, COL (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
- On the road to: CBJ, PIT (Expected 1-1-0) Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: SJS, VAN (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
- Actual April results: 7-1-1, 15 points in 9 games
- Oilers in 2021-22: 45-26-6, 96 points in 77 games
The Oilers won’t catch Calgary for first in the division, but could finish with 100+ points. It would be the eighth time for the century mark, the most recent in 2016-17 and the rest during the glory 1980’s. Jay Woodcroft is 22-8-3. Amazing.
GOALTENDER
Mike Smith stopped 34 of 36, .944. He is in a zone and because of it the Guide & Record Book will adore him with numbers again this year. Long past injury and playing like there’s an injury, Smith’s .925SP at five-on-five ranks No. 11 among goalies with at least 750 minutes. What an unusual season.
DEFENSE
Darnell Nurse sent Jamie Benn into the Oilers bench, that doesn’t count as a stat but Oilers fans loved it. Maybe Nurse can do it more often, start a collection. Six shots, four more attempts, five hits, GV-TK and two blocked shots. He was flying last night, running down pucks and getting into good spots. He was on for the Hintz goal against, I’m going to suggest Mike Smith should have frozen the puck before the bad thing happened. Cody Ceci was on for the same play, he was unable to suppress the sortie during what was a broken play gone bad. Two takeaways and a giveaway, he is most noticeable (for me) when standing up at the blue line and denying entry. Ceci is good at it. This pairing took on the big line (Robertson-Pavelski-Hintz) most often, Nurse-Ceci 12:28 Hintz five-on-five, no other defensemen more than 70 seconds against the Dallas trio. Manson was hard matching and that gives us a clue about what may come in home playoff games, although the LAK have more than one line to worry over.
Duncan Keith had an amazing game, finishing 4-0 in five-on-five goals and 5-0 goals overall. He picked up a late assist, had a GV-TK, hustled for pucks, blocked a couple of shots. He was on the ice for goals by several different lines, one of those nights. Evan Bouchard was more involved in the success, posting two assists, four shots, two takeaways, couple of hits and blocked shots, he was impressive on this night. He is now 76, 10-30-40 on the season and leads Edmonton defensemen in points despite limited power-play time.
Tyson Barrie played just 12:29, but did pick up an assist, blocked a shot, had two shots on net and two more at net. The top pair took most of the playing time on the night, although Barrie did get 1:22 on the power play to lead all defenders. Brett Kulak played just 12 minutes, was on the ice for the Robertson goal. Kulak arrived before the shot, might have tipped it, for me the primary issue was in the neutral zone with Kassian’s clear miss of the puck. Kris Russell played less than 11 minutes, picked up an assist, and like Kulak played a role in the first goal but wasn’t exposed on the play.
FORWARDS
Zach Hyman scored a goal, eight shots, took a penalty, GV-TK, blocked three shots, one HDSC and won a faceoff draw. He does many things every night. I know there’s a growing sense that he doesn’t pass the puck enough, and I get it, but overall Hyman is such a splendid player. Leon Draisaitl picked up an assist, three shots, one GV and three TV, HDSC, he was strong on the puck and made good plays. Probably should have been rewarded with a goal if life was fair. Kailer Yamamoto had two shots, GV-TK, two HDSC and made some nice passes to move the play forward.
Evander Kane scored the first goal of the game on a great feed from 97, four shots, two HDSC and a giveaway. He’s 17-15-32 in 38 games, Ken Holland probably looking at those numbers and thinking a 35-goal scorer on McDavid’s wing would be a nice addition over the summer. Connor McDavid posted 1-2-3, he’s 43-70-113 in 76 games. Two HDSC, two TK (five-on-five) and he was brilliant all over the ice. I don’t think he’ll win the Hart, several players having career years and this is McDavid excpected, so it’s likely he posts the best season without winning the award. Jesse Puljujarvi scored, now 14-21-35 in 63 games. I think Holland will sign him to a one-year deal this summer. Four shots, two HDSC, he’s a fine two-way forward.
Warren Foegele had FIVE shots on goal, five hits, GV-TK and skated the puck out of danger a couple of times or more. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had a giveaway, a blocked shot, one shot on goal, saw the Raffl-Faksa-Glendening line most often and you’d like to see a little more offense but the job of his line is outscoring or a draw and mission accomplished. Derek Ryan scored a goal, takeaway, two blocked shots and one HDSC. A handy player. Ryan McLeod picked up an assist on the Ryan goal, two shots, two HDSC and drew a penalty. That’s a useful player, he took some playing time away from the Nuge at five-on-five. Zack Kassian was involved, one shot, one HDSC, three hits. His most memorable moment came when he was unable to negotiate contact with the puck in the neutral zone, leading to an easy entry by Dallas, some scrambling by Edmonton’s defense and eventually a goal. How much blame you wish to lay at Kassian’s feet is entirely up to you.
WOODCROFT
Pierre Lebrun has a column up today about NHL coaches in need of a contract. His take on the Jay Woodcroft Matter is solid and reasonable. It is here.
THE CONDORS
I watched last night’s game with a specific question in mind: Who should be the first recall based on performance. In goal, Stuart Skinner is the easy choice despite some wobble in April. His .917 SP for the season is just outside the league’s top 10. Tyler Benson and Seth Griffith were the most prominent forwards to my eye. Defense? Welll, the best options didn’t play, although Philip Broberg is close. Dmitri Samorukov being out for the year and Markus Niemelainen also unavailable for the forseeable future. If I had to pick one player for recall, without knowing what type of defenseman is unavailable in Edmonton, I’d go with Mike Kesselring. He isn’t ready for the NHL, but he is playing well, has good speed and a lot of battle.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, we have a very busy show on TSN1260. Chris Johnston, TSN Insider, will guide us through the playoff seeding and possible matchups. We’ll also talk Oil Kings, Raptors and Blue Jays. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
Hockey has lost another icon. Guy Lafleur has passed away. I guess it was expected, but still sad just the same.
https://www.cbc.ca/news
This is TOI under Manwood with On-Ice Save %age.
KRusty—–89.26—94.12
D Keith—379.16—3.51
C Ceci—-565.38—93.29
Nurse—–602.08—92.96
Barrie—–426.15—92.34
Kulak—–189.23—91.21
Boosh—-467.17—90.78
Laggy—–158.18—90.14
Niemo—-142.08—89.33
Brobrg—-147.15—88.71
To me the save percentage looks driven by the defensive prowess of the defenceman in question. Not absolutely or in full, I’m not making that claim. But that ranking looks pretty true (KRusty will have some regression likely, that’s simply sample size). I mean maybe you move a name up or down one or point out QoC, but in general, Save Percentage looks like it is correlated to the ability of the defense in front of it. At least from this particular sample.
This weekend, I will look at the Dark Ages of December and January and see if the porous fragile D looks anything like Manwood’s.
I deleted a few hundred posts because they were boring.
LT why no give us the choice???
Choice of what?
And… BAM! There goes several hours of research.
Thanks.
You are most welcome.
It’s really not safe to post thoughts here when you-know-who is rolling.
All your stuff can be disappeared at any moment for nothing you, yourself did.
I basically posted right before LT removed the comments that I was going to post some stats but it was pointless as the board was being spammed by He Who Shall Not Be Named again.
Ironically though, LT didn’t remove HH’s (incorrect) response to my post, only my civil, factual replies. Dink move.
Little wonder a lot of the good posters over the years have chosen to move on.
Looks like I missed an interesting evening!
Not really
Interesting, a couple of posts just disappeared a minute ago; one saying something like “hello pot, meet kettle”, in relation to Harpers Hair.
I agree, the constant negging of Oilers and Oilers fans that he puts on here discredits the tolerant and welcoming community that has grown on this blog. It’s too bad it’s allowed.
I wish there was a way to completely hide his posts to me, but given that’s not possible (as far as I know), I choose to just never interact with him and try to avoid reading what he posts.
Okay, as I typed that, the post I was replying to disappeared and the post count dropped from 305 to 149…
McDavid Nurse Draisaitl Keith Smith
Kane, RNH, Kassian, and more…
All with a first class results head coach who literally is the first innovative/intelligent/counts the minutes and down to seconds of games regularly/ never throws shade at the team or individual players coach Oilers have had since before 9-11
It’s going to be a great first shot to try to make the finals.
Holland proves one thing: Holland knows how to built a team.
Colorado are likely cheering for Dallas to keep ahead of Vegas, hard.
Vegas are coming in hard from out of the the final corner. They might not even have to run the table.
LT said two months ago that 97 points was the magic number. The man is a genius.
Summarizing!
The Bourg assisted twice and was named 2nd star in a 4-1 victory.
A quiet night for Petrov–no points, 1 SOG–as North Bay won 4-1 to take Game 1.
Kevin Fiala breaks the tie in the third. 4-3 Wild over Vancity Dynastys.
Fiala is ppg this season and the Wild have zero money to sign him.
This offseason is going to be crazy. I suspect teams with lots of cap space like Detroit and Anaheim will be able to improve dramatically.
They’ll just trade some of their buyout dead cap hit in a genius move……
That would seem logical. Arizona would be at the head of the line for that.
A good writeup by the “Other Nuge” about Matvey Petrov and his (Petrov’s) acclimation to North America:
https://theathletic.com/3262878/2022/04/21/oilers-matvey-petrov?source=user-shared-article
I’m just not sure why an org would do this – like is he that great a coach that they need to bring him in?
Rod Pedersen
@rodpedersen
· 2h
Hearing former #Flames coach Bill Peters is joining the AJHL’s Grand Prairie Storm @TheAJHL #HockeyTwitter
Have you been to Grande Prairie before?
One day, when I’m certain I will never have to drive to GP and beyond ever again in my life for work (going to Yukon is completely different and likely done on nice dry roads not winter death race)
-> I made a promise to myself that I’m going to drive to the first roadside turnoff on 43, after getting off 16, setup an impromptu camp there and drink royal reserve until I pass out in the back of my truck.
A fitting way to celebrate being retired from that part of life.
Oddly enough:
Hythe could have been named my last name if my great grandmother who ran the post service would have went with the postal official’s suggestion but she suggested hythe.
You name a middle of nowhere destination north of red deer -> I’ve probably spent some time in or near….
As a broke ass hill Billy youth I had far too many of those flag stickers on my old beat up truck. I’m glad I’m not that kid anymore but I see that kid all over Alberta’s green earth and their drink is definitely still R&R. Just seemed fitting to send off patch living in poor taste…if I ever get there.
In 2014 I was flying first class to Australia and running projects that had national media on hand the whole time….how the hell I ended up cruising again up the 43, white knuckles from all the instances I clearly am skating on black ice. Past that point 20 km out of white Court where all radio stations just instantly die and road goes to a blizzardy hell…sometimes I wonder.
I don’t know who wants Hyman to pass more but count me as decidedly not one of them. This team has always lacked shooters and shooting mentality.
I think Leon’s a little banged up right now and I’m sure he appreciates Hyman doing some heavy lifting for the second line. Also some teams practically double team Leon which leaves the lanes open for Hyman to drive to the paint.
Hyman seems like the kind of guy that prides himself on knowing how to take a punch. Boy does he lean into the gritty stuff. I love it. Leon sorely needed that kind of line mate.
Haha indeed. “Shooter’s Mentality (TM)” is an unofficial drinking game by some watching him for how often he uses it
Perhaps said player needs to up his “battle level”/”get into the battle” more.
If there’s one thing Hyman has, it’s “battle level”!
Gregor saying he’s hearing playoffs will start Monday May 2.
I’m excited about this Kuzmenko fellow in Russia. If he comes over he could help with some cap issues as those first contracts are generally cheaper even for top KHL players.
I compared his numbers to Radulov, Dadonov, Panarin, and Kaprizov. Panarin (23) and Kaprizov (22) started younger and Dadonov (27) and Radulov (29) started older than Kuzmenko (26). Maybe his progression lies somewhere in between and so did his numbers in the KHL. Those 4 players had similar numbers in their last KHL season.
Last KHL Season
Kaprizov 1.09 pts/gp
Panarin 1.15 pts/gp
Kuzmenko 1.18 pts/gp
Radulov 1.23 pts/gp
Dadonov 1.25 pts/gp
I think Radulov and Dadonov had already seen most of their progression and kept less of their production. Kaprizov and Panarin, however, were still young enough to improve their numbers when they made the switch. Maybe Kuzmenko lies somewhere in the middle? So I simply averaged all their transitions. They kept 75% of their pt production and 81.25% of their goal production, which is similar to what Equivalency experts tell us.
By this very rudimentary calculation, here is Kuzmenko’s estimates for next year in the NHL:
76GP – 25G – 48A – 73PTS
1st Contract Cap Hits:
Panarin $812,500 x 2
Kaprizov $925,000 x 2
Radulov $885,000 x 3
Dadonov $654,167 x 3
Kaprizov’s is the worst, and Dadonov’s is the best, but they both make sense base don age. The Oilers would be lucky to get any player of this calibre at this price. Fingers crossed. And the fact that Holland has made Kuzmenko’s agent very happy this spring by signing his players Evander Kane and Matvei Petrov bodes well.
Not expecting much from Kuzmenko if the Oilers land him, but always hope for exceeded expectations.
Holland has good luck with CCCP players.
Zero issues if Ryan gets pushed down to the 4th line on merit. He only makes $1.25M.
A few things here:
1) all of the contracts listed were subject to the ELC parameters – couldn’t have cap hits much higher. Kuzmenko is 26 and won’t be subject thereto. Doesn’t mean he’ll get a big AAV but he’s free to negotiate without parameters
2) You cite their “last KHL season” – Kuzmenko is 26 whereas I think those guys were all MUCH younger when they had their last KHL season.
I don’t see any of those guys as a real comparable – they are all many tiers above Kuzmenko.
I think the range here is from Dopita to a reasonable ceiling of a Gusev.
I mentioned their ages: 22, 23, 27, and 29, so he’s younger than 2 and older than 2, but closer to the older players.
Fair enough on Dadanov but Radulov was putting up those high end elite numbers in his early 20s.
Caught a segment of ON today and Bob had a Russian guest (agent, I think) who said his best “scout” in the KHL said based on a preseason game seven years ago he said then TBY GM Stevie Y should draft him. Said scout reported that Kuzmenko could play in the NHL on merit at that time. Any GM could have drafted the guy with a seventh round pick.
That guy’s scout: Nikita Kucherov.
Another tidbit from that segment was that basically every GM in the league has expressed interest, and that Old Dutch has been to Russia several times. He said Holland is very much in on this player.
Peaking, Peaking, Peaking!
Nice to see a few posters joint the “best team since XX” today. Welcome to all.
Man o Man – given the stats from the last month of play down the stretch it would be fun to blog search July 2021 posts than combined – Holland, Idiot, Ceci, Keith, Smith, analytics. Hahaha.
This is why they play the games though and this is why we’re all fans of such a maddening but glorious sport.
Dom’s article the other day about Heavy Hockey, was interesting but also a bit soft. I know you need to pick identifiable variables and ones that are counted to make these things work but I think it’s missing a “something” especially in regards to our “little” team.
I think Oiler fans at times discount the number of crazy eyes that exist on the roster. Yamamoto is a small fella but pound for pound Id take him over washed up Benn every day of the week. He’ll throw himself into a forecheck with reckless abandon on every shift, every day. I call it the Krusty effect and it’s why you have Krusty still on the team.
Rewind to the 16/17 and first it was a stick between the legs (and a game misconduct) for Draisaitl after the Sharks got too uppity. A game later it was a big open ice hit by McDavid that sparked the comeback.
Its not volume but quality that matters in heavy hockey. It’s laying it on the line when you need to lay it on the line that matters. Tough to capture that with a model.
But I’ll tell you something. Toronto doesn’t have that. Neither do the Avs (aside from Landy maybe), neither does Florida actually. And Calgary… yea enough said. I bet Sutter wears out his welcome when they get swept this year.
Oechids the lot of em. Orchids are beautiful, tough as hell to grow and immensely satisfying at times. But mess with their temperature, water them too much or too little and my god they’ll react harder and faster than a jilted lover after you’ve missed a crucial text message.
This isn’t even peak Oilers yet. Not even close. I think the odds are increasing by the day that Kane re-signs and I actually think Matthews can be talked into a team friendly deal when he’s tired of losing with analytics.
A Decade or Dominance is rounding into view. It’s going to be Pats-esque, but nobody will mistake it for coaching. Players win Championships, players break and bleed not coaches. Coaches bring out the best but they should never be the star of the show.
Thats what I like about hockey more than every other sport. In hockey Gary tells the players to come grab the Cup, everyone else hands the trophy to the Owner or GM first. It’s disgusting and ass backwards frankly.
Our team is learning to win one step at a time. Last spring was maddening, but they are all better for it. And the Jets will be playing golf.
Man this is Fun!
Totally agree re: players lifting the cup. It’s a great moment. And who can forget the great hand-off, Sakic to Bourque? Man that was sweet!
That McDavid hit is burned in my mind forever. Not required of him, but fun to watch. Unless he gets hurt.
Jack Michaels
@EdmontonJack
NHL teams with three defensemen at 35+ points….
1) Florida
2) Edmonton
That’s the list.
9:53 AM · Apr 21, 2022
No no no, we just don’t understand, it’s Cale with 43 points and Maker with 44 so Colorado makas the list no problem. Just a matter of goalposts.
This Oilers team is really lining up beautifully at the right time, everyone is contributing.
Thanks for all your numbers!
COL
Makar 13
Toews 11
E Johnson 6
Manson 5
Byram 4
MacDermind 2
Girard 0
FLA
Forsling 12
Montour 9
Weegar 7
Chiarot 6
Gudas 4
Linbohm 1
Hagg 1
(Ekblad hasn’t played in this stretch, yikes!)
CGY
Hanifin 16
Andersson 7
Stone 5
Zadorov 4
Tanev 3
Kylington 3
Gudbranson 2
So, all a bit top heavy with more falloff than EDM. I like EDM’s top 4 virtually tied and their 5-6 tied with 4 each. Russell hasn’t played many games and has 2.
Evan Bouchard + Tyson barrie PP
5G 23A in 293 min
Cake makar
8G 25A In 275 min
EB 5×5 8G 26A in 1222 min
CM 5×5 19G 25 A in 1395 min
Rough if someone was genuinely trying to corelate a reasonable facsimile comparison using 2 oilers defenseman to compare makar’s points against:
Evan bouchard hybrid 13G 49A – 52 P in 1515 min all game states (2.06 P/60)
Cake Makar 27G 50A – 77 P in 1665 min all game states (2.77 P/60)
So, hypothetically, likely not bad for the guy 1 year younger drafted a solid tier below who is going to cost less than half as much for quite awhile…hopefully they don’t sedin sister his ozone starts, like Cake, anytime soon as jump in points might not be full value.
Since Feb.11, when Woodcroft took over:
Smith is 4th in SV% with a .924
Koskinen is 21st in SV% with a .905
1 Darcy Kuemper
2 Igor Shesterkin
3 Ilya Sorokin
4 Mike Smith
5 Logan Thompson
6 Scott Wedgewood
(of 40 goalies who played 787minutes ~12GP)
AND
The Oilers are 22-8-3 over 33GP, which is a 117pts pace over 82.
1 Florida Panthers
2 Calgary Flames
3 Colorado Avalanche
4 St Louis Blues
5 Edmonton Oilers
6 Boston Bruins
_______________________________________________________
Since Mar.22, the day after the trade deadline:
Smith is 1st in SV% with a .942!!!
Koskinen is 34th in SV% with a .888
(of 44 goalies who played 333minutes to include Koskinen)
1 Mike Smith
2 Linus Ullmark
3 Ilya Sorokin
4 Darcy Kuemper
5 Chris Driedger
6 Igor Shesterkin
AND
The Oilers are 10-3-1 over 14GP, which is a 124pts pace over 82.
1 Florida Panthers
2 Toronto Maple Leafs
3 Minnesota Wild
4 St Louis Blues
5 Edmonton Oilers
6 New York Rangers
_______________________________________________________
I like the Oilers’ chances going into the playoffs.
Possible Western opponents italicized.
I hope VGK doesn’t make it because they could really turn around and be conference spoilers. They now have a hot goalie in Logan Thompson and are probably getting healthier every game and way over cap in the playoffs.
The playoffs are a bit of a different animal than regular season, of course, but I thought it would be fun to look at the head-to-head matchups to see if they tell us anything. Sometimes a team just has your number, despite what the overall record shows.
WESTERN CONFERENCE QUARTERFINALS
COL v DAL – the Stars are 2-1-0 this year and 6-1-0 going back 3 years. W: DAL
STL v MIN – the Blues are 3-0-0 this year and 12-1-1 going back 3 years. W: STL.
CGY v NAS – the Preds are 2-0-0 this season and 4-0-1 going back to 19-20. W: NAS
EDM v LAK – the Oilers are 3-1-0 this year and 6-2-0 over the past 3. W: EDM
WESTERN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS
STL v DAL – the Blues are 3-1-0 this year and 7-1-1 in the past 3. W: STL
EDM v NAS – the Oilers are 3-0-0 this year and 6-0-0 since 19-20. W: EDM
WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS
STL v EDM – the Oilers are 2-1-0 this year and 3-3-0 over the past 3. The Blues are 1-1-1 vs Edmonton this year and 3-2-1 since 19-20. It could go either way, but the Blues haven’t been very good defensively this year and the Oilers have really tightened up under Woodcroft, so I’ll give Edmonton the edge. W: EDM
EASTERN CONFERENCE QUARTERFINALS
FLA v WAS – the Panthers are 2-1-0 this year and 2-2-1 over the past 3. W: FLA
TOR v TBL – the Leafs are 2-1-0 this year and 4-2-0 in the past 3. W: TOR
CAR v BOS – Carolina is 3-0-0 this year, 3-1-0 in the past 3. W: CAR
NYR v PIT – Rangers are 3-1-0 this year and 6-5-2 over the past 3. W: NYR
EASTERN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS
FLA v TOR – the Panthers are 1-1-0 this year and 3-2-0 since 19-20. W: FLA
CAR v NYR – the Canes are 2-1-0 this year but 2-5-0 over the past 3. W: NYR
EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALS
FLA v NYR – the Rangers are 2-1-0 this year and 2-2-1 in the past 3. W: NYR
STANLEY CUP FINALS
NYR v EDM – the Rangers hold a 1-0-1 record this year and 1-2-1 over the past 3. The Oilers are 1-1-0 this year and 3-1-0 in the past 3. The records are too close to call, so we’ll look at 5v5 underlying numbers from the 2 games this year:
CF%: 65.79 EDM
SF%: 59.80 EDM
GF-A: 7-4 NYR
xGF%: 60.73 EDM
SCF%: 66.67 EDM
HDCF%: 60.53 EDM
I’ll call it in favor of the Edmonton Oilers!!
LOL. Honestly I didn’t have any idea where this would end up when I started it – I just noticed yesterday that Dallas seems to have Colorado’s number and Nashville has Calgary’s. We all know what happens when Draisaitl plays Nashville, and the way MIN cold-cocks the Oilers every damn time. And then I looked up St. Louis’ 12-1-1 record v MIN and decided that I should put it all together… turns out these matchups (should they hold over the next 5 games) are pretty close to ideal for many reasons.
Edmonton has a good record against LAK, and with Doughty out should be the favorites to win that series. Nashville stand a good chance at upsetting CGY based on history, and likewise the Oilers seem to score at will against Nashville. Edmonton struggles against MIN and DAL, fortunately STL has an overwhelming record against both, so they should clean up the ‘hard’ Central teams. Beating the Blues won’t be easy but the Oilers have at least as much chance of winning that series as the Blues do.
As I said, I didn’t plan this out, I just followed the path.
It seems wide open this year, hard to predict. It could be the favorites in the final in FLA & COL, or it could even be an all-Canadian final with EDM-TOR? Could a CGY-EDM conference final be possible and then a TOR-EDM Cup? With an Original six conference final in the East with NYR-TOR. That would be a dream come true (as long as Edmonton wins, otherwise it would be a nightmare)! I like the idea of EDM-NYR final. Although it will suck that Jeff Gorton has built another Cup contender before being let go to give someone else all the credit just like in BOS where Chiarelli got all the credit.
Would be nice if it broke that way… but that would have seen us not getting bounced in four straight to the Jets last year, and to CHI the year prior.
Playoffs, as you rightly say, are a different animal.
Big Money Jay Evens is a Godzilla.
Not sure why you think the Blues haven’t been very good defensively.
WC GA/GP
CAL 2.48
COL 2.74
VAN 2.77
STL 2.84
LAK 2.86
NSH 2.92
VGK 2.96
DAL 2.99
MIN 3.04
EDM 3.06
You mentioned accurately that the Oilers seem to have tightened up but so have the Blues going 2.40 GA/GP in their last 10 games.
Also worth noting that STL is the second highest scoring team in the WC with 290 goals behind only the Avalanche at 298.
Their goal differential is 3rd at +68
Worth Noting you picked Vegas to finish 1st and Vancouver to finish 2nd in the Pacific division.
I feel it’s best to just leave them on and let the skin grow around them..
The refs will put the whistles away in the playoffs, negating the Blues hot PP. And as for Goals, I included those in my list of things the Blues were in the bottom half of the league at – 17th overall.
Since Woodcroft took over the Oilers are 9th in the league for 5v5 GA/60 while the Blues are 16th in the same timeframe. Underlying numbers also suggest that the Oilers are the better defensive team.
If we look at all strengths GA/60 since Feb 10, Edmonton (6th) is again far ahead of St. Louis (14th).
Also:
Husso’s first 14 games: 1.81 GAA, .945 sv%
But in 23 games since: 2.81 GAA, .909 sv%
Meh.
Good or Great; Tough or Tougher; Old or Older;
We have two HIGHLY COMPETETIVE Goalies.
Really enjoying Hyman and Kane trying the wraparound move on many occasions this causes all kinds of chaos in front of the net. I’m also loving both players shoot mentality instead of overthinking and passing it to much with McDavid and Leon. Kane and Hyman are built for the playoffs add in Foegele, Kassian and Archie makes us no longer soft up front.
The Oilers have one of the largest and fastest first lines in the NHL. Physical too.
They have been having some very extended shifts in the O-zone since that line has been assembled.
Kane changes our whole top 9 dynamic. I’m hoping Kane wins the lawsuit then signs for a bargain. Kane looks like he’s having fun especially when it comes to him mentoring J.P, who would of thought that these two would bond. If Holland can resign Kane as well as J.P and then Keith out of the blue retires I’ll never say a bad word about Holland again.
Never is a long long time!😉
Archie is basically only available at home and vs CGY, and Kassian is more random than Russian roulette.
Otherwise I agree. Going to be a fun playoffs this year.
I think, at this point, Archie is the 3rd extra forward after both Brassard and Shore. The playoffs are a 2-month grind so, we may need 14 forwards but, he’s a ways from the lineup I think – even in a physical series.
Don’t see Keith retiring, even if owed only $1.5MM next season. Absolutely I’ll take the $9MM plus in cap space but would be surprised. For now, I’m sure happy he’s on this team heading in to the playoffs.
I would presume that Kane receives a settlement through the NHLPA field grievance process. I also think he will continue to look for high-end market value in his NHL contract negotiations notwithstanding potential other sources of income. If that is below $5M for a term of 3 years or less (mainly due to his age more than anything else), that’s do-able – not sure if that’s a realistic projection.
Biggest surprises for next year…
The Russians are coming!, The Russians are coming!
So who is leaving?
Lucky Russians.
Alan Arkin.
He’s such a great character actor Glengarry Glen Ross is in my top10 movies of all time.
Obviously Oilers are a dark horse at best in the grand scheme of things…
but…
I as a gambler with a pristine w/L record in various scenarios would happily bet @ 20 to 1 on an Oiler Stanley Cup.
Personally I see Oilers losing in the WC finals
To St. Louis, in 6 games. If you’re going to gamble, do it right! 🙂
FLA plays Detroit (tonight) and the Habs later in the season – the two leakiest teams in the league.
McDavid is going to need multiple multiple point nights to get that Art Ross.
I have no doubt he can do it.
I want the fourth Art Ross mainly to keep Gretz’s 10 Art Ross record in sight.
4 at the age of 25 would be a start.
I also really want McD to hit 50 this year.
I would rather see CMD and LD scale back the minutes to save gas and wear & tear for the playoffs.
They both had indivdual trophies from before, and it’s not like they need another one to proof they are the best around. It time to load manage for the best shot at the big prize.
15:45 at 5 on 5 last night and a shade under 20 minutes overall for Connor last night. Tidy 3 points in there.
I agree with you about limiting his minutes wherever possible – I do think he “wants” his ice time though and we won’t see many games where he’s at 15-17 overall, even if there are some laughers down the stretch.
No doubt they want the minutes and a shot to out score everybody else. That drive for success is what made them the best. At the same time I hope they have the maturity to prioritize what is important.
Last year theybwent hard to get CMD 100+ points in a shorten season. It was a great feat. In a way it feel like they were gassed along the way.
Agreed
But it’s not enough games left to cause a problem because Woody dialed it back when he came on
Other than Leon who is banged up Connor and Darnell look really refreshed and more energetic in their shifts because they aren’t gassed
I think Connor hitting 50 would energize him even more. He could relax getting that off his bucket list and focus on crushing the playoffs
Hey all, great win
I was curious about how the Oilers compare over the last 20 games to the current playoff teams. I got the numbers I was interested in, and thought I might as well put it here for anyone else that might be curious
I chose the time period for the Oiler’s last 20 games as I couldn’t suss out by every team’s last 20
MAR 9 – APR 20
5V5
……………….PTS…GF…GA..XGF%.SV%.PDO
METRO
CAROLINA…23P-45G-38G-58.33–.914-.989
NYR………….29P-43G-34G-50.70–.920-1.00
PITTS……….29P-44G-43G-54.00–.912-1.00
ATLANTIC
FLORIDA…..33P-47G-33G-60.21–.918-.995
TORONTO..30P-57G-45G-56.39–.902-1.01
TAMPA………20P-35G-41G-51.83–.914-.985
WILD
BOSTON…..26P-45G-34G-61.22–.909-.986
WASH……….26P-45G-46G-49.91–.893-.990
CENTRAL
COLORADO.29P-44G-33G-51.12–.937-1.02
MINNESOTA.34P-50G-27G-57.25–.944-1.04
ST LOUIS…..32P-59G-49G-45.88–.915-1.04
PACIFIC
CALGARY……29P-55G-36G-55.12–.924-1.02
EDMONTON..32P-53G-42G-53.61–.918-1.01
LA……………..21P-32G-47G-53.27–.895-.956
WC
NASHVILLE…25P-43G-45G-49.91–.914-.996
DALLAS……..24P-38G-47G-51.32–.911-.984
My thoughts. I look for average or better SV% and at GA. Goalies and D win playoff series.
Eastern – I have had my doubts about the Panthers in the playoffs because a lot of O and not enough D rarely works past the first round, barring Tretiak in the nets. I felt Tampa lost too many horses, it seems to be panning out, it’s not goalies. I felt Boston was a playoff threat as always, and if they’re healthy and the goalies are a little better they’ll be a handful based on xGF% and GA.
The Panthers seem to have tightened up GA the last 20 and it looks like their’s for the taking at this point. Normal SV% and smokin’ xGF%.
Western – After playing the AVs they didn’t seem that defensively solid to me. It looks like the GA is goalie driven, and the xGF% is pretty meh, the GF the worst of the good teams, they seem vulnerable to me.
St Louis’ GA is way too high. Minnie and Calgary with their xGF%, GA and SV% look like the hardest outs. They are also riding hot goalies, but their xGF%’s are stronger than the Avs, I think it will be key as the rounds progress, and all teams are playing solid team D, goals getting more scarce.
However we know who’s coming out of the West.
Based on your work…it appears Calgary will be coming out of the West.
However, adjusting for key players being out of the lineup with injury in those games skews things.
For example, Aaron Ekblad has been out for a month but is expect to be back for the playoffs so, in theory, they should be even better. Colorado without Landeskog and Kadrri too.
I also wonder if the goal scoring boom will continue into the playoffs this season since more than a few teams are built around a high octane offence.
https://theathletic.com/3259933/2022/04/21/nhl-scoring-boom/
Debatable if officiating will continue to be somewhat consistent with the regular season in the playoffs but, if so, we could see a lot of goals.
Based on this rudimentary look Minnesota looks like the team
xGF% is an indicator of creating quality chances. The Wild are doing that, and not getting scored on a lot. The ‘wild’ SV% certainly is driving the GA, but with Talbot and Fleury they have a good chance of keeping a strong SV% in the playoffs
The Frames look strong as well. They have a high SV% and are giving up a fair amount of GA which isn’t good. The wildcard is the GF.
If Johnny gets perimetered again their offence will drop off and they’ll be in trouble IMO. The two teams they struggle with are both physical teams and they’ll be facing one of them it seems
I see the Oilers as having a legit chance against any team with how there is no clearly dominant team. They will need health and everyone playing well, but every team needs that in playoffs.
The Panthers are smoking but for me they’re beatable. They are the type of team that can be disrupted by a stingy playoff team, like most high octane run and gunners
I agree that, if the Oilers goaltending holds, they have a punchers’ chance against any team and a very good chance against many.
That’s a big if though…..
Holy Hell – Gotta love the rubber road!
After being warned about the rubber road for years now, this is pretty much how I feel about it whenever it comes up:
Fun fact: Georges St-Pierre grew up as an Oilers fan and wanted to be like Wayne Gretzky
Prospectizing!
Playoffs begin tonight for the OHL and the Dub, including North Bay starting their first-round series vs. Ottawa.
The Q’s regular season continues until month’s end, and The Bourg returns to action after playing the role of OT hero on Sunday.
North Bay (Petrov) @ 5 p.m.
Shawinigan (The Bourg) @ 5 p.m.
As always, all times are for Olds time’s sake.
I was born in Olds!
That makes you an Olds soul.
Ha ha!
One interesting curio about Jay Woodcroft’s coaching is the management of Darnell Nurse’s time on the ice.
As we all know, Nurse is a workhorse, and can be counted upon in some games to play up to 30 minutes with little ill effects. For goodness sake, the man played 52 minutes with a 64% CF in game 4 last year. The problem is, does that grind accumulate over time when he plays an extended amount of time each game. That fatigue adds up, especially as a Dman, and would affect the effort and energy spent on practice, not to mention the mental fatigue.
We all know that Tippett relied on Nurse heavily in his run with the Oilers, clearly distrusting his other defencemen in favour of Nurse every chance he got.
Starting on November 18th, Darnell Nurse would begin a streak of games of over 20 minutes of ice time that would only be broken twice under Dave Tippett.
(apologies… all numbers in decimals because I can’t excel)
This is 20 out of 22 games spread out over 3 months with an injury (hand) mixed in.
Jay Woodcroft is hired February 10th, and coaches his first game the next day. Here is Nurse’s TOI per game since:
That is 8 out of 26, so much better. And no games over 22 minutes for Nurse.
Of note, since he played back to back 20+ minute games against Detroit and Buffalo, he has only played 20+ minutes three times against:
He probably would have also played the same against Vegas if the result were ever in doubt. It seems Woodcroft is getting Nurse high minutes against the playoff opponents, but he’s easing back against the fluff or won games. A good example of load management, and preparation, by playing more minutes against tougher teams and potential playoff teams, Nurse will become more familiar with those teams… but I personally have noticed Nurse making better reads and being stronger and more assertive again now that he’s had some rest.
One more interesting thing. In that stretch with Tippett, Nurse’s average shifts were 22.1
Under Woodcroft, it was 20.3
So the same number of shifts, but 3 or 4 fewer minutes a game. So that would mean Nurse is skating out the same number of times but getting off the ice quicker. Short shifts work!
Ah dammit, all that work and all times are 5v5. Still useful but not as definitive :/
Ahh….the life of a statistician.
It’s good work none the less. Still statistically significant.
Nice work – thank you.
I would just note that, while Woody/Manson have reduced Nurse’s 5 on 5 minutes (and PP minutes), they have increased the intensity of his minutes. He’s playing about 50% of his TOI vs. elites since Manson – its somewhat unheard of and I’m not sure its sustainable in a long playoff run.
LT is right, we need a 2LD that can help with some of that next season.
It was mentioned last night, but almost every single Holland addition has been rounding into form as the playoffs approach.
Woody has this team playing like we all knew they could. It is actually beautiful to watch.
Ceci has been unbelievable for the past couple of months. He is so quietly effective. His contract is looking like a steal.
Hyman has a career-high in goals and points.
Kane is averaging close to a point a game. Clear chemistry with McD.
Kulak has solidified the third pair. The third pair went from a liability to strength since his arrival.
Keith has been a mixed bag. Brassard has been meh. But overall, I have to give Holland and the pro scouts some credit.
One thing that goes unmentioned with Brassard is that he was acquired with half salary retained. that $400,000 provides some cap flexibility for a team that was juggling the cap for any callups before the deadline.
Keith has been mixed bag, but that’s the cost of expertise. Shows flashes of his former brilliance, and flashes of being nearly 40, but we don’t know what we don’t know, and its hard to say how much his experience has helped this team through the regular season behind the scenes.
Derek Ryan had 2 points in his first 33 games.
He’s basically been a 0.5 ppg player in his last 40ish.
All because of the Coaching change really impressive of Woody giving Ryan ice time as well as important face offs.
Foegele and Ryan deserve mentions here too.
The thing that strikes me most about the new look Oilers besides Woody and Charlie is the variety of skill sets among forwards and defensemen (heck..even Goalies)
There is a full set of role players and Coaching seems to have them ALL playing their roles at or near peak performance.
Every guy brings something. (something just a little different from the other guys)
MacTavish used to say something like “you don’t have to be a star, but you have to bring something…you have to be a difference maker.”
Woody made a Princess out of a Picasso ( < an homage to LT here)
Kane was the missing ear.
Kulak the thicker lips.
Random stat O the day:
19 goaltenders have played 50 or more games for the Oilers since the team joined the NHL.
Of those, Mike Smith is currently tied with Cam Talbot for the best career SV% by and Oiler goalie. He’s also 3rd in GAA (Salo, Conklin) and 10th in wins.
Mikko shows pretty well too, with the #6 career SV%. He’s also 6th all time in wins and 11th in GAA.
I still find it a little strange to see McDavid, Draisaitl and Nuge in the top 10 of the Oilers all time scoring list, even more surprising to see our current two (much maligned) goalies showing up near the top of some lists. (a lot of this is era scoring obviously, but still, huh).
“Darnell Nurse sent Jamie Benn into the Oilers bench, that doesn’t count as a stat but Oilers fans loved it. Maybe Nurse can do it more often, start a collection”
YES! Then they could produce a series of “Upside down Bobbleheads”
Jamie Benn
Nathan McKinnon
Etc.
#BobbleFoots
#BobbleLegs?
Randle suggested that in order to have a “good” result in the six games bookended by the Avalanche, the Foegele Nuge Ryan trio would need to score/produce 4 goals.
Results so far:
Foegele 2
Nuge 1
Ryan 1
#MissionAccomplished!
#WillTonightDeliverGravy?
I posted this late last night. Essentially, it is a look at which goalies are hot coming down the stretch and which goalies are not.
Top goalies in April:
Knight FLA 5gp .957
Smith EDM 7gp .954
Talbot MIN 5gp .954
Sorokin NYI 6gp .949
Demko VCR 7gp .942
Fleury MIN 5gp .938
Other Notables:
Shesterkin .930
Kuemper .927
Binnington .912
Quick .900 !
Markstrom .895 !
Vassy .890 !
If we go on a run in the playoffs we might need more D men. Anything on Slater Koekkok? Is he getting paid for the leave? What is happening next year with him?
All we know is that he is on “personal leave” – I don’t consider him an option (and, even if healthy, may not even be 8 or 9 on the depth chart).
As far as next year, unless he retires or they agree to terminate his contract, its there – of course, its fully buryable with no cap hit so, really, a non-factor.
“I don’t think he’ll win the Hart, several players having career years and this is McDavid excpected, so it’s likely he posts the best season without winning the award. ”
So he’ll have to settle for the Art Ross. And then the Players will vote and show the Professional Hockey Writers Association exactly how they should have voted.
Art Ross + Ted Lindsay = TRUTH
The real question is, “when the time comes exactly which tool will they use to saw the Conn Smythe in half?”
#McDrai
As someone who was saying within the last 3 weeks that Smith was done and should be retired, I am seriously hoping he’s in the conversation for Conn Smythe. If he is, it means a) we’re in the SCFs and b) he’s playing well. Both of which would be key to playoff success this year.
Also – Mike, I’m not apologizing about saying you’re done until your name is on the Stanley Cup. Prove me wrong, bro!
I really don’t have much issue with other players being considered for the Hart
Huberdeau, Gaudreau, Matthews, Marner, Josi are all having incredible seasons – and their teams are benefiting
MVP is a difficult thing to measure and there is bias amongst the writers
When the players vote, I take notice. That matters.
Somewhat related, great article regarding Larry Bird and his trash talking over at the Athletic. He was a beaut and perhaps the best of his generation according to the players.
I’m finding many Oilers fans to be quite defensive re: McDavid and the Hart.
I don’t think there are many out there that don’t agree he is the best player in the game. At the same time, that does not equate to being the most valuable to his team in any given season and, while i can definitely make a case for him this season, I can make a case for a good 4-6 others – there have been some really epic seasons.
If I’m being honest with myself, John Gudreau is up there.
LT said…
This is incorrect.
Last night, Nuge played 50 secs more than his average during 7/11 2.0. McLeod played 20 seconds less.
I can’t find shifts/60 out there, but just looking at the shift chart you can tell Nuge wasn’t shorted any shifts, bearing out the TOI numbers. Every one that 71 got with 37 and 10, Nuge got an extra one with 71 and 44.
Well, Mcleod did have a 34 second shift with Ryan and Foegele – all in the offensive zone.
McLeod did play almost two minutes with Foegele (without Nuge).
I was at the game last night, only my fourth of the year. The record wearing my Condors hat is 2 and 0 and the record with my Oilers hat is 0-2.
Others have mentioned this but my take is the Oilers have transitioned from just scoring off the rush to being able to cycle and control the puck in the offensive zone. would be interesting to see the zone time stats from last night.
The first goal against definately was on Kassian, looked to us that he wanted to take off towards the offensive zone before he had control of the puck and it went past him.
On the second goal, it looked like Smith was trying to smother the puck was unable to do so.
Final take for this morning, what an incredible player is McDavid. Much different than Gretzky was, much more spectacular. We are so blessed to have had those two guys play for our home team. Only Pittsburg with Lemieux and Crosby can come close.
The key difference, to me, is they aren’t trying to go into defensive shell and hold on resulting in trying to win 5-4 games. The forecheck continues in just as hard. This team wasn’t suited to try and play passive collapse.
I’d love to see the difference in dump in to carry pucks in ozone. There seems to be far less offsides since woodcraft was handed ball. Like a don’t divk around get it in and be skating like there won’t be as much dick around and its going in the zone.
I enjoy regularly seeing the Oilers spending a minute and a half, or 2 minutes in the oppositions zone and remembering the Oilers are not on a PP.
I remember a sequence last night where I had left the game for a minute, came back and saw what looked like the Oilers on a powerplay…. Until I counted the Stars and saw that we had just hemmed them in for a long time. Beauty!
I’ve been laughed at for suggesting this Oiler team is something special, and that the forward ranks today will end up being the best ever. How about this? I looked at seasons from 1980-81 to 1988-89 (9 total).
How many times did Gretzky + any other Oiler player finish in the top 5 in scoring? Three times in 9 years. Rank in parentheses.
84-85: Gretzky (1), Kurri (2), Coffey(5).
85-86: Gretzky (1), Kurri (4).
86-87: Gretzky (1), Kurri (2), Mark Messier (4).
Now, how many times have McDavid + any other Oiler player finish in the top 5 in scoring? I looked at 16-17 to 21-22 (6 seasons total). *I’m counting this season as completed*. The answer is 4.
18-19: McDavid (2), Draisaitl (4)
19-20: Draisaitl (1), McDavid (2)
20-21: McDavid (1), Draisaitl (2)
21-22: McDavid (1), Draisaitl (4)
So, 3/9 for the 80s Oilers and 4/6 for the current Oiler squad. If you throw out the first two years, (16-17 and 17-18), where Draisaitl was emerging, the 97+29 are 4/4.
It would be fun to compare the depth. Kane is at a 35 goal pace, Hyman at a 29 goal pace, Jesse at 18, Nuge at 15, KY at 19. I don’t think Kane and Anderson are far off, era-adjusted.
Mark my words: best Oilers forward group of all time, starting this season. Can’t wait for Holloway/Petrov/Bourgeault to join.
For the time period between 1981 and 1988 here is the top 12 in NHL scoring:
Player GP G A P
Wayne Gretzky 537 477 891 1368
Peter Stastny 526 282 510 792
Denis Savard 542 273 503 776
Jari Kurri 525 365 408 773
Dale Hawerchuk 559 312 440 752
Michel Goulet 534 360 352 712
Paul Coffey 504 215 489 704
Mike Bossy 445 332 366 698
Marcel Dionne 532 286 399 685
Bryan Trottier 531 242 411 653
Glenn Anderson 544 309 343 652
Mark Messier 500 267 384 651
Added to 5 Oilers in this list over that span were guys like Krush and Tikkanen who were both close to point a game players. Kent Nilsson made a brief appearance on the team from the deadline through the playoffs in ’87. Craig Simpson was on the ’88 team. BTW that Gretzky total is just sick: 576 points more than the next highest guy in the league or 72% more. WTF! He is more than 3 standard deviation above the mean of the top 12.
McDavid and Drai are fantastic and the best 1-2 in the game today, but as a group, this team isn’t even leading the current NHL is GF/G. The 81-88 Oilers outscored the rest of the NHL by more than 20% for 7 years running.
In fairness, the Bruins scored 399 in 78 games in 70-71, for 5.12 g/g which is as good as the Oilers 5th best total in 84/85. Boston was 108 goals ahead of Montreal, who were 2nd in scoring, while the Oilers were 86 up on the Nordiques in their best season. Boston had the top 4 point getters (the only 4 in the league who cracked 100 that season), 6 of the top 8, and 7 of the top 11 in the league.
It’s impossible as an Oiler fan to listen to the first 12 minutes of the show this morning and not (1) get super pumped about this Oiler team and the playoffs and (2) want to work at Virgin radio.
“it’s the best five-on-five version of the Oilers since Craig MacTavish, maybe before.”
LT, this is easily the best version of the Oilers since the 80s. 06-07 was good, the 96-97 team was good, but this roster is on another planet. I still think the forwards, as a group, will go down as being the best we’ve had, particularly with JP yet to completely pop offensively and so much talent bubbling under.
Hmmm. The 1987-88 Oilers ran a top 6 of:
Tikkanen-Gretzky-Kurri
Simpson-Messier-Anderson
…with Craig MacTavish anchoring the third line & Mike Krushelnyski the fourth.
Great write up as always LT. Yet another great game to watch last night (or this morning in my part of the world). Bouchard seemed to go through a rough patch but, to my eye, seems to have really raised his game since being paired with Keith, and he played really well again last night. Yamo on the other hand seems to have reverted to early season mode after a brief 10 game hot streak. It will be interesting to see what he can bring in the heavy hockey to come. As for the PK, it is just phenomenal – and when Kane and McDavid come out I find I am expecting the Oilers to be the team more likely to score – a strange experience. (Hat tip to McLeod here also. Man he is fast.)
I would note that Yamamoto played the most among forwards on the phenomenal PK last night.
I keep coming back to praising the Ken Holland development model….look at Bouchards situation… developed him as slowly as possible, and then give him one of the savviest, smartest and most accomplished vets as a partner in his “rookie” year. The Keith trade in a vacuum was weak value, but looked at in the context of Evan’s development it’s a stellar situation. Watch the next 5-10 years of Bouchard’s interviews he will reference playing with “Duncs” as a rookie
Optimally, we would have gotten Chicago to retain some salary. But one of the reasons rebuild 1.0 failed was because the kids were handed the keys to the car too early. They did not have veterans who were quality on the ice and off. Holland fixed that problem and I would say the two years of salary cap pain will pay off in the long term development of players like Bouchard
Bouchard is not some scrub 4th rounder he went 10th overall. Bouchard has pedigree and would of been further developed if allowed to play 3rd pairing 2nd PP minutes last year. Bouchard instead was scratched and watched from the stands most games last year. Bouchard is essentially a Rookie this year and is only going to continue to get more confident as the seasons go by.
The only problem being he was behind Larsson, Barrie, and Bear on the depth chart last year. Part of the reason why they traded Bear in the off-season.
Per Stauffer:
Mike Smith last 10 starts:
9-0-1
1.70 GAA
.948 SVP
———-
Geezus!
Also: start Mikko on Friday.
We’ll ride this pale horse all the way to the Apocalypse
Although, after playing tomorrow, they have a long travel day to Columbus and a VERY early game Sunday.
Maybe Sunday is the game for Mikko?
A private charter flight of 3-31/2 hours is not that long a travel day. I don’t know what info the Oilers coaches have on Mikko vs Mike on how they perform in day games.
If the Oilers want to be sure that they have 2 goalies for the playoffs, I would think they’d play Mikko against Colorado. Woodcroft/Dustin can’t keep saying they trust both goalies but then only be playing Mikko against the softer competition. I do
A 3.5 hour flight, plus losing two hours via time change, plus a 1pm start the next day – sorry, can’t agree with you and I’ll stick to my premise that its a tough travel/game start structure.
Mikko’s last two games were against the Wild and the Avs – don’t think they are just giving him weak comp.
I say alternate goalies down the stretch. Mikko gets Friday, Tuesday, Friday, Smith gets Sunday afternoon and Thursday night. Everyone’s rested, no one’s rusty.
Is anyone else concerned that this heater happened a little too early? I fear meat regression.
Would have been nice to have saved this type of performance for the playoffs.
Do you think the ManWood Oilers are the ones you saw against CGY & MIN, or the ones you saw against COL & FLA & CAR & TBY?
I think we’re seeing what the team is made of, and that Woody is absolutely correct that there’s more yet to come if they can dial in on details.
Why is it either/or?
This is not directed at you, but this form of question is something I find perplexing and irritating. These days, discussions seem to be prefaced as black/white, in absolutes, or in extremes. Particularly online. I find it odd because it actually limits effective discussion and, instead, promotes arguments.
<end mini-rant>
While we can all witness the improvements under Woodcroft, I think the truth lies somewhere in between. Given the recent stretch in particular, I’d like to believe the team lies closer to their higher-end counterparts.
But, are these gaudy numbers from Smith sustainable? When does he come back down to earth? History suggests he will.
Is it Smith or is it a change in structure defensively. With the new coaches there is a buy in that had been lost by the previous coaching group. Woody line matches at home which is a critical difference from how Tippett operated. Woody instituted the 7 D format with great success ( inventive thinking ) which also was not a strength of the previous coaching group. I raise these as questions because our goalies success may not be as much getting hot but a function of what I term superior team defence which was missing with the Tippett coaching crew. Personnel usage has also been changed giving the team better balance and three reliable lines. The mental toughness of the group also appears to be better. Are all these change merely mirages! It is my opinion that we are seeing the birth of a team able to challenge for a championship in real time,
Calgary and Minnesota attacked the Oilers’ weakness…the smallish and slowish D, and the lack of commitment of the wingers to get to and win the battles along the boards in the D zone. Nothing better than being spanked and exposed twice before the end of the season.
It might be said that those were lapses. The wingers have been much more committed in the D zone. But Calgary and Minnesota have the forwards able to stress and attack the Oilers vulnerability.
Oilers were too amped up when they last played Calgary and blew their adrenaline before the puck dropped.
Minnesota is just a bunch of bastards, but got to thank Hartman for bringing the fellas together and the team displaying much more team toughness as a result.
2 lessons learned.
Ceci is on a 30 point/82 GP pace with no powerplay time while playing a heavy load against top opposition. He has been excellent defensively. That contract is an excellent value.
Indeed – there were some that were happy with the contract and suggesting it would be solid value (of course, this wasn’t based off of seeing him play much last year but based off of reading thoughts of PIT fans and a couple really insightful PIT market guests on show such as Locked on Oilers and The Other Connor Pod).
Of course Holland is not bound to sign ManWood to a multi-year extension, but I’m wondering
(1) how bad would they have to flounder to destroy their chances;
(2) which coach out there is a better choice?
Woodcroft and Manson have already delivered, getting thrown into a high-pressure situation midseason.
LT had previously mentioned, maybe last week the fans would be unruly if they weren’t extended. I think it would be much worse than unruly.
It honestly doesn’t matter if they get swept. They’ve fixed this team and frankly have done all they can. Now it’s up to the players.
From the beginning, both Holland and Woody said an extension would be an off-season thing. Recently (a week ago or so), Holland was quoted as to being very happy with Woody/Manson.
I would be surprised if Woody/Holland haven’t already essentially agreed he’s re-signing and they’ll simply iron out the contract details in the off-season.
I think its essentially certain and that the sides have even agreed from a high level. No point in distracting with contract structure details – decision made now and they’ll work out the details in the spring.
Yeah, could be.
I kinda think what’s been said is exactly what’s going on (will discuss after the season). My guess is that Holland has not directly told Woodcroft yet ‘I’d like to re-sign you’. He may well have decided he plans to, and Woodcroft obviously knows things are going well so I don’t expect he’s too worried. But I suspect it has not been discussed directly yet.
Anyway, that’s just my guess. And it doesn’t matter in any case. I definitely have zero concern that the lack of extension in place is something we should read into.
Tippett used to say that he talked to Holland essentially daily so I presume Woody is in touch with Holland often (he does seem fairly “hands on”) – I would think, from their interactions, Woody feels fairly comfortable about his future in Edmonton. Its also a bonus that his wife is a local (I think).
I am loving that cycle up high in the offensive zone. First line held the puck in for 2 minutes on one shift, and it resulted in the Hyman goal.
I always wondered about that down low cycle on the periphery. Difficult to do anything other than move the puck either up or down the wall. Putting the puck to the middle for a high danger chance seems more a prayer than anything, same with shooting.
With cycling a forward up high, all of a sudden the defenders spread out, and the player with the puck has so many options. As we saw yesterday, Drai made a pretty simple area pass/shot.
A side benefit is less jail break going the other way if/when a puck is turned over.
That is all Woodcroft/Manson.
Look At Yourself…Uriah Heep during their heyday. Uriah Heep Live 1973 is quite possibly the best rock live album of all time…sublime! Thanks LT, I’m blasting it with coffee this morning.
Such a great song, and the source for the title of this blog post!
Recognized the title instantly, been humming it to myself ever since.
I see you running, don’t know what you’re running from.
Nobody’s coming, what’d you do that was so wrong?
Still have the vinyl version of this 1971 album.
I have a stack of their albums on vinyl up for sale if you are into such a thing.
a long ways to go, but as of today the most likely 2nd round matchup is EDM@CAL… hard to even fathom that this might be happening
The day we changed coaches the Flames and Oil were 4th and 5th in Pacific.
Flames were in second with four games in hand on Vegas.
As of today the most likely 2nd round matchup is Edmonton – Nashville. 😉
My goodness, the Hintz, Pavelski, Robertson line played their entire game against the Nurse/Ceci pairing.
What a pairing we have. Ya, that line played well and had chances but that pairing has been given a monumental task.