2021-22 Game 78: Avalanche at Oilers

How many Oilers forwards would you consider productive offensively? What is your line in the sand for a productive NHL player? I always used 2.00 points-per-60 for top line, 1.75-2.00 for second and then anything over 1.50 for third line as good production. How many productive offensive forwards does Edmonton have on the roster as we close in on the postseason?

THE ATHLETIC!

• New Lowetide: Should Oilers re-sign Brett Kulak based on early results?
• New DNB: How Oilers’ Matvey Petrov mastered English and became a promising NHL prospect
• Lowetide: Connor McDavid’s outscoring reaches peak with Jay Woodcroft as Oilers coach
• Lowetide: Is Ken Holland’s unusual approach to team building close to success for Oilers?
• Lowetide: Recent rash of injuries to Oilers prospects a familiar story
• Lowetide: Ryan McLeod’s comparables are encouraging for young Oilers centre
• DNB & Lowetide: Why the Jesse Puljujarvi criticism in Edmonton misses the mark
• Lowetide: Evan Bouchard’s deployment is working, despite play in Wild loss
• Lowetide: Evander Kane’s scoring prowess and what he brings the Oilers
• DNB: Connor McDavid’s Hart case
• DNB: Dylan Holloway call-up? Jay Woodcroft extension? Zack Kassian trade? Oilers mailbag
• Lowetide: Stock up or down for every prospect in the Oilers system
• Lowetide: Making the final call on the Oilers 2017 draft
• Lowetide: Early look at Oilers free-agent targets for 2022 offseason
• DNB: Should Oilers budget for Evander Kane beyond this season?
• Lowetide: 7 Condors who could impact Oilers’ fortunes in the playoffs
• DNB: How Jesse Puljujarvi, as a player and person, became perfect fit for Oilers
• Lowetide: Revisiting the Oilers’ choice of Evan Bouchard in the 2018 draft
• Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2021

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM APRIL

• At home to: STL (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 1-0-0)
• On the road to: ANA, SJS, LAK (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 3-0-0)
• At home to: COL (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-0-1)
• On the road to: MIN, NAS (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
• At home to: VEG, DAL, COL (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
• On the road to: CBJ, PIT (Expected 1-1-0) Actual 0-0-0)
• At home to: SJS, VAN (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• Overall expected result: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
• Actual April results: 7-1-1, 15 points in 9 games
• Oilers in 2021-22: 45-26-6, 96 points in 77 games

Do you remember that six-game ‘two weeks of hell’ that we discussed? Do you remember I suggested 2-4-0 would be a solid run? Entering the final game, the Oilers are 3-1-1. This month might be the most enjoyable Oilers experience since the 2006 playoff run.

OILERS FORWARDS, FIVE-ON-FIVE POINTS-60

I think we can call Draisaitl, McDavid and Hyman productive this season on skill lines, Derek Ryan has scored well on depth lines. Evander Kane has played half a season, and his 1.78 points-per-60 is good, and Jesse Puljujarvi is also in the range. Are there five skill forwards delivering among Edmonton’s top-six forwards?

This is an interesting chart, we’re basically through the season and can see what has gotten better, remained the same and is so good it’s frightening. The most revealing item for me? All forwards but Zack Kassian are around .5 goals-per-60 or better, and there are three men over a goal per 60 at five-on-five. That’s balance. Now, I’m not going to show the balance photo again, some of you were so upset about the experience I’ve decided to retire the phrase. That said, you can see nine men who are producing some kind of goal-scoring over the long season. Let’s check on outscoring (goal differential five-on-five) to see who shines like a diamond:

Jesse Puljujarvi delivered a tremendous season of outscoring, and those who understand the importance of this statistic know it’s really really real. Did JP benefit from playing with Connor McDavid? Of course. The thing is, and that trips people up very often, Puljujarvi helps the captain outscore and therefore has tremendous value. In 2018-19, McDavid’s most common right-wing was Kassian, and the captain’s five-on-five goal differential was 50.66 percent (Kassian 45.6 percent).

The combination I worry about right now is Leon Draisaitl-Kailer Yamamoto. Since Jay Woodcroft took over, the two men have played 230 minutes together, outscoring opponents 10-6. However, the shot differential (45.83 percent) is a concern. Zach Hyman with Draisaitl have played together 278 minutes, have outscored opponents 17-15 and have a 50.92 shot share. Something to keep in mind as we enter the playoffs.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we have a busy show and some major subjects to discuss. Steve Lansky pops in at 10:20, we’ll talk Guy Lafleur’s passing, the Oilers and junior hockey playoffs. Chris Johnston, TSN Insider, will chat about the Oilers-Kings and what we might see, plus some recent blowouts across the NHL and what they might mean in the postseason. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Friday!!