There are several European nations who fall outside the ‘big three’ of Russia, Sweden and Finland, but deliver quality prospects to the NHL draft each season. There was a time when Czechia was a power and based on recent events perhaps will be again. In the meantime, Germany, Slovakia and many other nations have contributed to this year’s draft pool. Two defensemen from this portion of the hockey world will go near the top of the draft, on merit.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Oilers’ Ryan McLeod uses blazing speed to move up depth chart
- New DNB and Dan Robson: Connor McDavid is the best skater NHL’s skating greats have ever seen
- Peter Baugh and Lowetide: Breaking down Oilers vs. Avalanche
- Lowetide: Why Jordan Dumais could be NHL Draft steal for Edmonton Oilers
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Zach Hyman’s value continues to rise in playoffs
- DNB: Connor McDavid scored the most important goal of his career with his Battle of Alberta OT winner
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Ryan Nugent-Hopkins having effective playoffs before big goals
- DNB: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins gets his chance to shine in the playoffs
- DNB: Cody Ceci making himself ‘irreplaceable’ in playoffs
- Lowetide: Oilers future relies on quality coaching replacement in Bakersfield
- DNB: Leon Draisaitl assists on all four Oilers goals in win over Flames
- Lowetide: Has Oilers goalie Mike Smith earned the net in 2022-23?
- DNB: This is how Connor McDavid wins: ‘He’s like a shark circling the waters’
- Lowetide: Reasonable expectations for Oilers could not see chaos ahead
- DNB: How Dave Manson is making the Oilers blue line better
- Lowetide: Oilers regular season report card for 2021-22
Europe and the 2022 draft
This is a great list at the top end, it’s possible five men will go in the first round. I’m not sure what the order will be for the top two here, but am confident they will be the first two defensemen to come off the board.
LOWETIDE 2021 LIST
LD Stanislav Svozil, Brno. Impressive with the puck, solid without it.G Alekesi Kolosov, Minsk. KHL goalie, .911 SP and still a teenager.RC Danila Klimovich, Minsk Zubry. Size, speed, shot, set the U18s on fire.LC Jakub Brabenec, Brno. Skilled center with size, quality at U18s.LD Janis Moser, EHC Biel-Bienne. Overager, fine skater and complete skill set.- LC Florian Elias, Mannheim. Small skill center, he’s a determined player.
G Patrik Hamrla, HC Energie Karlovy Vary. Dominated Czech junior.
Florian Elias, a German centre, was on my list a year ago but wasn’t drafted. He is eligible again this year. I did not have Luca Munzenberger on my list, he went to Edmonton at No. 90 overall. Munzenberger is a shutdown defenseman, that’s the kind of player my list always fades. I would also argue the Oilers could draft the pure shutdown types later in the draft but the team has been much better in this area lately.
BUILDING THE TOP 125
- RC Shane Wright (O). Peter Harling (Dobber) compares to Patrice Bergeron.
- RD Simon Nemec (Slovak). A complete skill set, impressive WHC’s.
- LC Logan Cooley (U). Incredible skater, skilled and elusive. Dual threat.
- RC Matt Savoie (W). Scott Wheeler: Inside the offensive zone, he’s lethal.
- RW Joakim Kemell (L). High skill, great shot, 15 goals in Liiga.
- LW Juraj Slafkovsky (L). Big skill winger who spiked during the season.
- RD David Jiricek (Cze). Solid two-way D, knee problem interrupted season.
- LD Denton Mateychuk (W). Elite skater, complete range, impressive passer.
- RW Jonathan Lekkerimaki (Swe). Skill winger with exceptional shot.
- LW Cutter Gauthier (U). Big W with outstanding shot and sixth sense for goals.
- LC Markus Kasper (Swe). Range of skills, safe pick, can help on offense.
- RW Jagger Firkus (W). Quick, skilled, difficult to contain.
- RW Frank Nazar (U). Fast train, intelligent, creative, impressive offense.
- LD Pavel Mintyukov (O). Top-end skater, puck mover. Some chaos defensively.
- LW Isaac Howard (U). Fast release, creative, emerging.
- LD Kevin Korchinski (W). Two-way defender, mobile and smart.
- LW Liam Ohgren (Swe). Goal scorer had a strong season.
- RW Jordan Dumais (Q). Undersized skill winger impressive playmaker.
- LW Brad Lambert (L). Outstanding speed, range of skills, where are the goals?
- RC Conor Geekie (W). Best PF at the top end of the draft.
- LC David Goyette (O). Speedy center with skill and two-way ability.
- LW Jiri Kulich, (Cze). Skill winger who posted strong numbers this year.
- LC Servac Petrovsky (O). Aug. 2004, slick, skilled, does everything at high speed.
- RW Jimmy Snuggerud (U). Range of skills, scores from a variety of areas.
- LW Adam Sykora (Slovak). Impressive skill, one of the youngest players in the draft.
- LW Luca DelBelBelluz (O). Size, two-way ability, and an offensive spike.
- RW Filip Masar (Slovak). Speed demon, undersized and dynamic.
- LD Lian Bichsel (Swe). Big, mobile defenseman with two-way skills.
There are four more slots in the first round, we have Russia next, then the Hinterlands, followed by overagers and goaltending. The list is coming into view.
SHUTDOWN DEFENSEMEN
Since 2010, the Oilers have invested several high draft picks on shutdown defensemen. The return is less than hoped at the time. By year, and NHL games, Martin Marincin (227 NHL games), David Musil (4), Markus Niemelainen (20), Dmitri Samorukov (1) and Munzenberger. It is not a good investement, and what’s more there have been times during the last decade when drastic action was contemplated. Oil Change informed us there was some consideration for adding a second high pick in 2010 in hopes of landing Dylan McIlrath, and we all remember the Adam Larsson trade. I’m impressed with Tyler Wright as scouting director, so overreacting to the Munzenberger pick isn’t appropriate. It does indicate a possible organizational blind spot that could be helped via analytics.
QUESTION
I was asked in the comments section about my preference for the Oilers moving forward. I am always on the side of retaining young players who have more NHL future than old players. For me, signing Jesse Puljujarvi, Kailer Yamamoto and Ryan McLeod to deals (long term if possible for JP and KY) should be the priority.
Ken Holland’s history suggests the team will push to sign Evander Kane, grind McLeod and Yamamoto, then deal Puljujarvi to a team that can send a less expensive, under control, player who addresses need. So, when I talk about signing Kane and trading Puljujarvi, please know it is not my preference.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A fun show lined up today, we’ll chat about the Oilers, Avalanche, Elks and Canada at the WHC’s. Jason Gregor will join us in hour two, and we have a ripping guest for hour one. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
While I never ascribed to the narrative here that Ethan Bear is currently a Top 4 d-man, I am pretty shocked that he didn’t play a single game for the Canes in the playoffs. Say what you will about the Oilers handling of the player, the Canes seem unlikely to even qualify him this summer. There is a useful player there – hopefully he can find himself in another organization like Ceci did.
Also Smith held up better than two of the UFA goalies from last summer, that are both far younger. They should’ve kept Ned. Good regular season team, but they don’t have that player who can kick it up a notch for the playoffs.
The Oilers have lots of depth on defence. Broberg,Niemelainen, Samourkov all superior to Bear. They made a great deal. Pity though that Foegele has not delievered the way they thought he would.
Pretty sure Bear will be qualified, retained and be a regular for Carolina next season. He did have a disappointing year though, and surprising he didn’t get a sniff in the playoffs.
Do you mean Carolina’s UFA goalies? They were quite decent for them though you’re right Smith has been equal/better in the 2nd half. Ned ad a real tough year though (probably fair to say worse than all of Smith, Andersen and Raanta).
Does Foegele get shipped out this summer for a pick or a prospect?
If Kane signs then yes. If not, Foegele probably stays. That would be my guess.
I think his cap hit gets him either way. His $2.75 plus will be spent on a Kane replacement. I think McLeod & Holloway make more sense for the money in the top nine.
That makes some sense for sure, you could definitely be right.
I’m not sure there is a Kane replacement (external) if he doesn’t sign though.
I think a combination of Hyman, McLeod, Foegele, Holloway at LW is likely, at least until the deadline.
Yeah, all sorts of scenarios are possible at this juncture. Is the 1st rounder in play? I think that is possible as well if Kane walks and Holland goes shopping so that and some of the prospects on defence are vulnerable imo.
Yes I think the 1st could be in play, as well as young D. There aren’t so many young D of (trade) value left though, and I don’t think Broberg will be in play.
I suspect a higher end forward (if Kane doesn’t re-sign) waits until the deadline but agree lots of scenarios are possible. Holland’s past definitely does include trading 1st round picks and other quality assets for high end veterans, both in the summer and in season. (going way back, but Chelios, Shanahan, Hasek, Lang, Schneider come immediately to mind)
Do you think its akward when Woody’s strategy likely includes taking advantage of the Manson pairing as Josh has leaked goals against since acquired by the Avs?
Woody has outcoached everyone so far. I don’t see Bednar being his equal.
Maybe Josh will have some inside info to feed his coach?
I don’t think Dave is that dumb to share all of his secrets with Josh:)
But is Josh dumb enough to have shared his secrets with Dave?
Perhaps yes:)
Everyone thinks Tampa will roll on the Rangers Gallant has them skating downhill with a Norris D man and the best Goalie in the world this year. Why does this sound familiar plus Point injury is a huge loss.
And the most overrated team in the league is toast. There will be no direct 2006 revenge – and that’s just fine.
Nah screw that, I wanted that series! I suppose beating Tampa will have to suffice.
Oil may well meet their match in COL, but only TBay has me afeared.
Woke up from aural chemo sleep to see something that has not happened the last 30 yrs.
For the first time 3 of the top 5 champ roster structure teams have not made the final 4.
ie 2 non top 5, Oilers & Rangers, made it!
Hope you’re well, and on the mend.
If you’ve time and the stomach to do so, I’d be interested in seeing your take on the Oil as currently constructed. I know you were big on Archibald before he was signed here, and many are not in favour due to fancy stats but suspect that doesn’t tell the whole story (IE, how does one measure energy/60, etc).
On a completely different note, I’d be interested to read your take on what you see from EDM and COL using just the eye test. And maybe even a prediction.
When LT mentions this, I too am in a similar camp where I don’t want to trade JP but see it as a potential necessity depending on other contract negotiations.
I don’t relish the idea of trading him only to see him blossom elsewhere, kind of like Blake Wheeler. Hi, Pete!
Should it come to pass, something I saw posted a little while ago and looked into a bit was the idea of a JP for Dach swap. Same pedigree, both players struggling a bit to live up to their potential, perhaps both could benefit from a change in scenery. Given that Dach is younger, it would not be unreasonable to extend him to JP’s current deal, and it’s not unlikely that he would produce similar numbers. Plus he’s a RC which would really come in handy on this team. Bonus points for another local product on the team.
No sympathy for Carolina. Enjoy making changes for the sake of changes this offseason.
The Kotkaniemi offer sheet is looking rather petty now
Offer sheets are just good business. I’m shocked to see they don’t get used more often, especially in the mid-tier. Too many nice guys in hockey ops, I guess.
You piss off 31 other G.M’s but the Habs did break the unwritten rule among G.M’s with the Aho nonsense, so I think it’s a wash.
Oh sure I get the flexing involved, but JK’s been way below replacement value – like the Golden Knights, Carolina had a nice thing going and effed it up by letting emotions rule the day. Imagine that money used for Evander or some such difference-maker? They’d still be playing, heck, they’d be as rested as Tampa
Canes have a really good and deep team they lost their starting all-star goalie to injury. Oilers were down 3 games 2 and tied 2-2 with 5 minutes left against L.A before Barrie picked the far corner perfectly. It’s such a fine line between winning and golfing. Oilers made it over the hump so did the Av’s this series is going to come down too the Hockey Gods.
Canes have regressed since their conf final appreance in 2019. If they havent bought a house in the cant win narrative they are definately renting.
I have it on very good authority that Carolina made a fantastic deal… But most probably goal posts have been moved around since then 😉
Summarizing!
The bad news: Despite having 7 SOG, The Bourg was held scoreless.
The good news: Shawinigan wins 3-2 in OT–yup, another one-goal game–to force a fifth and deciding game in Quebec City on Wednesday. Prospecting takes a break until then.
Despite his lack of points production, his fingerprints were all over this game. In a good way.
Shawinigan would be having better results if their goalie didn’t let in so many bad goals during this series.
Game highlights:
https://youtu.be/NmdadpT4KGU
Ferraro mentioning this will be the first time the Carolina crowd has seen their team lose in six weeks.
I enjoy those tears.
So the Oilers have outlasted a handful of ‘better’ teams: Leafs, Flames, Bruins, Florida, Minnie, StL, now Carolina.
I’d rather an ‘unbalanced’ regular season team that cranks it up in crunch time than a so-called complete team (Car, Fla, Cal) that doesn’t have the personnel to take it to another level.
This goes to Knighttown’s VORP comment below. Do you go cheap or do you invest in those that provide difficult to obtain additional production? Go all tens and jacks or get as many aces and kings as you can? Closest I ever saw to the first was the 06 Oilers, although they did have one superstar, just he played D.
Good memories! Except the team that beat them was even more a collection of good-to-great players. Mike Commodore has his name on the cup. St Louis may be a good example of 10’s and J’s recently? Overall best to have 2-3 elite players, methinks.
Eric Staal had 100 points that year. Hemsky and Horc were our top two, posting points in the 70s. Canes had three more players in the 70s besides Staal at 100. Plus they had Cole and Doug Weight batting down the line-up. But besides both teams coming from the bottom of the conference, I’d say we were more Cinderella than the Canes.
Carolina in 05/06 had 112 points, tied for 3rd in the NHL Detroit and Ottawa which made them 2nd in the Eastern Conference. They were favoured in every series they played.
on the PP they miss an open net but CAR finally scores to make it 4-1 with 11:49 to play
but its really over b/c the Rags come straight back and Chytil scores five hole
Barring a miracle, that is going to be one heck of a tending battle in the ECF…
TB wins quite easily against the Rangers. Carolina has no scoring on there team , if they don’t get great goaltending they lose. TB all 4 lines can score. Only downside TB has played a lot of hockey in the last 3 years
Doubt it will be quite easy.
Kreider with another dagger
‘That’s sooooome coach’
Yup coaching is a huge part of the game
Gallant knows how to get hockey players doing good hockeying
He’s one of the top all-time in goals scored in elimination games. That’s through multiple coaches. Kreider has been playoff money for years.
Okay, Game 2 Shot shot shot-shots Report.
As always I prefer the heat map. It’s far more granular than HDC, which is simply the aggregate of the home plate shot attempts on that map, xG merely a derivative of that aggregate. We’re looking for shots where sheer location becomes a substantial factor in their difficulty—across the front of the crease and up through mid-slot. It wasn’t there for either team Game 1.
But thanks to your Oilers, for the first time in this series a team posts a map with a nice hotspot right in front of the crease. Avs brightest spot was left point and the numbers confirm: Makar with 8 CF. Their next best was high slot about even with the top of the circle. The Oilers did an excellent job checking, allowing only 3 HDC at five-by the entire game. At the end of two periods Avs had 16 shots on net total. They got their shot totals up in the 3rd, but still couldn’t penetrate home plate with even one attempt other than MacKinnon’s PP backhand from the edge of the circle. That’s on 27 shot attempts.
Foegele scored after a possession zone entry by Ryan and some fine work cycling, very strong on their sticks. Puck comes back to the left point and Nurse takes it and skates to the middle of the blue line to fire a low shot that Foggy, having come off the boards to the lower hash marks, deftly deflects past Kuemper.
Oilers created 8 rebound opportunities in that game, the Avs 1. That helps put the happy in that heat map. Most of those opps came from Oiler D taking shot points, but I note that Avs had a lot of shot points too. A good job was done boxing out, and controlling traffic & shooting lanes by the Oiler skaters. Plus good rebound control by Koski. When he can play to his strengths–size and positioning–he usually does well. Takeaway battle was won 14-8 by the Oilers. Just fine checking, plenty of back pressure all game long. Perhaps the best defensive effort of the season, considering the opponent.
I’d like to say special teams were a non-factor with both squads going 0-2, but a huge kill by the Oil at the end of the 3rd led to a huge kill by the Avs in OT. Final shots on net were 50-34, Oil.
Whereas Colorado should have won the game in their barn, Oilers should have taken this one. They had the run of the play, out-shooting, out-chancing and out-checking the Avs. A notable line-up difference was Nuge in and Kadri out, but I don’t think that can fully account for the Oiler dominance.
I think this kind of defensive effort is what Jay will want from his team tomorrow. The matching shenanigans are going to happen, regardless, and we’ll likely see 97 take three of the first 8 or 9 shifts, but largely Jay will want his team to not shoot themselves in the foot… and to not let Avalanche find any flow. Still forecheck, but make sure the third man in the 2-1-2 is ready to haul back and support
Will we see the Oil revert to their weak starts to series? I’d like to think they’ve learned from the last two series, but y’know, it’s the Oilers. They didn’t take the Avs for granted in the regular season and came out playing hard in both these tight games we’ve covered. Every game is going to count against the Avs and its probably going to take two good efforts to come way with one win. I think Jay will get them razor-focused and hopefully the break has them recharged and chompin at the bit.
shot points = point shots lol
I’ve dreading sunned onset dyxlesia for years
Ryan posted this quote from a NY Post article earlier. Turns out it’s a great segue for something I was looking at earlier.
Comparing the Avalanche season (82 game) to the Oilers under Woodcroft (38 games) is almost eerie with how similar they are.
Points %
COL .726 (119 points)
EDM .724 (118.7 point pace)
GF-GA
COL 3.76-2.83
EDM 3.82-2.76
SF-SA
COL 35.0-32.0
EDM 34.8-32.4
PP
COL 24.0%
EDM 24.1%
PK
COL 79.7%
EDM 82.1%
Damned near identical across the board. Huh.
I will be most interesting to see how the team does with a full season (and training camp) under Woody’s tutelage.
I’m rather wary of prorating results, especially for such a long stretch.
That said, the above looks favourable.
Good stuff- thanks.
What about post-deadline Avs (as they added a top 4 d-man (although he hasn’t been good) and a middle six forward).
The Oilers were the distinctly better team after Woodcroft was hired and especially after the deadline. At the same time, the Avs had likely taken their foot off the gas by that point, and also had some guys injured/resting, so I’m not reading much into it.
I like that goal differential.
Very nice post!
With Woodcroft, 97 in god mode, and Smith on a heater, I think the gap is less than the money line would suggest.
I’m saying there’s chance!
That’s how I feel about it too.
There’s a chance!
The series comes down to how healthy Nurse is. He was not at all physical in the Calgary series and his minutes were greatly reduced.
Nurse’s TOI drop wasn’t that big. And Woodcroft had dialed back even before the playoffs.
Under Tippett 26:36
Under Woodcroft 23:22
Post trade deadline 22:43
(excluding the game he was initially injured)
Playoffs 21:18
His minutes have been reduced in the playoffs but comparing directly to his season average (25:02) is very misleading.
Kane has to be resigned. However, not at all costs. There should be other bodies to be considered to be moved before JP. Barrie, Kassian, Foegele, etc……the problem on this roster is paying Nurse 9.25 mil……The two best players are McDavid and Draisaitl. How is it possible that you give Nurse 9.25 when Leon gets 8.5?
Damn the linear properties of time!
lol
Leon’s contract was for many RFA years and Nurse’s contract is for zero RFA years. They are not comparable contracts.
Note: They got Nurse on a value deal for every single one of his RFA years.
There are two reasons fundamentally he got that deal. One) Klefbom’s injury, 2) because he is close to Connor. He is nowhere close to Makar, Josi, etc…
I was responding to the comparison between Nurse’s contract and Drais’ contract and how they are not comparables – you responded with a strawman.
Are you basically stating that Nurse is in the same category as Makar, Josi? There is no way that he is in that category. Period. They had a choice to offer something fair for his actual value. They chose to overpay. If he is that good, why wouldn’t they trade him for two dmen at half the cost?
Nope, not saying he’s in that category, never implied it either.
I am saying that you are under-rating his value to the Oilers.
I would also continue to opine that comparing UFA and RFA contracts is not honest.
Well, if you’re paying him like Makar, Josi, etc you are putting him in the same category are you not? I could not care less if there was no salary cap. However, there is. Thus, for me it’s a massive overpay. Nurse at his best is a 5.5-6 mil defenceman.
I continue to encourage you to not compare RFA contracts (Makar) with UFA contracts (Nurse).
I can’t disagree that $9.25MM is high but $5.5MM-$6MM for a full UFA years contract isn’t close.
In that case, I would have traded him and replaced him with two defencemen at half the cost, or a true #1 dman at that price.
Have you compared the cap% at the time of signing?
Inflation matters.
Also, complaining about Nurse’s AAV when two GMs had three chances to lock him in long term, and didn’t, is assigning blame in the wrong place. Nurse got paid, and earned it through loyalty and results.
Nurse is nowhere near a 9.25 mil a year defenceman no matter how you cut it…inflation,cap%, etc……
Well, he is 11th in 5 on 5 points over the last 3 years (7th if you go back one year for a 3-year stretch).
Plays a ton.
PK1.
Highly durable (hadn’t missed a game with injury between his rookie season and this).
Personally, I think they completely overpaid the player and it will be a bad contract in a couple of years.
yea, but to be fair, you’ve also thoroughly proven that you both don’t know what you’re talking about & make bad faith arguments to support your clearly biased positions.
lol you’re funny. I don’t know what I am talking about by stating the obvious?
You seem to think that ‘stating the obvious’ qualifies as a strong point without justification. Support your opinion. Comparables, relative value, absolute value given performance….. the valuable ‘opinions’ are in the details. Sweeping statements are a dime a dozen. You haven’t added anything to support your original position.
Nice setup by Copp to Fox. Anyone watching?
yep, think Lafreniere had the primary assist on that one. Now 2-0 on 2 PP’s for Rags.
(haven’t seen carolina fans so glum since… you know)
i think I’d feel safer if Carolina would just bow out.
That’s funny, I feel the same way.
Canes PP is letting them down. I wonder when Anderson makes an appearance if they do somehow advance…
Goes from bad to worse with Raanta pulling a groin and Strome scores on the backup.
To paraphrase Ferraro, ‘Carolina are a complete team but without a superstar’
I didn’t see what happened to Jarvis… Oh I think its coming up in a second. Mess will tell me, lol.
Ahh, Trouba. Again.
Rags and Oilers in the final 4… here’s to Mess feeling awkward for the finals!
Messier,MacTavish, Lowe, Graves, Buekeboom will always firstly be Edmonton Oilers.
https://nypost.com/2022/05/30/oilers-vs-avalanche-series-preview-odds-picks-and-best-bet/
All that dead cap and salary retention at over 4M would be pretty helpful this summer. Trade your way out. ‘You’ll lose a good player’. You lose them when you run out of cap and your hands are tied
No more buyouts that linger
Fun Fact.. Oilers record since Kane joined the team 24-11-4.
Colorado’s record since Kane arrived in Edmonton 24-10-4. This player has made a huge difference and this series is going to be very close and IMO could go either way.
VORP- value over replacement player
This is a huge deal in MLB when the value of giving someone their 600ABs is very measurable. But here’s the thing. There are 100 guys that can play 1B and hit .245 with 25 home runs if they are given 600 ABs. So they don’t get paid much. There are fewer that can hit .265 and 33 HR and they don’t just get paid more…they get a LOT more. And there’s only one who can hit .311 and 48 homers so the Jays better open their pocketbook. His VORP is off the charts. So you can choose the cheaper option but that missing production does not come back.
Here’s the thing with 13, 56 and 91. If you’re always focused on most bang for your buck, you’ll always choose the cheaper option.
Kane might only outscore Jesse 36-21 next year (and let’s assume the defensive numbers are identical) if they both played top 6 and so it is so easy to say “that 15 goals cost 4 million…huge overpay!”
But that fails to take into account that the 15 goals is gone as the prime RW position is being filled by a replacement (or closer to) player.
So if you think Kane will get you 15 more than Jesse if given the same ABs and the same spot in the batting order then also know that is going to cost you millions due to VORP.
Winning positional match-ups has always been one of the keys to winning hockey IMO. Likely bigger in hockey than in baseball, due to the direct H2H play. I’ve never heard of VORP before but the concept expresses the same idea very well. In Econ, the correlate is marginal supply and demand.
Baseball is not cap limited like NHL though. But also has more player movement. I’d say that when one has a high VORP player in one’s grasp one should retain because the opportunities for roster fits are limited. “Get good players, keep…” The counter of course being that doing so is impossible to sustain indefinitely in a cap world.
Interesting concept. How much more valuable is Kane vs Pujujarvi for the playoff goal differential? That has to be a huge consideration.
Okay, so two nights ago we looked at the first Avs-Oilers match, the only one this season at Mile High with Avs having last change.
To recap, Manwood were already employing match-up shenanigans at that point of the season, getting 97 away from MacKinnon after the first shift. The game was typified by low offense at 5v5 from both teams, neither penetrating the lower half of the slot or the crease much, but with the Avs having a distinct edge in shots attempts and chances. Special teams featured large with the Avs going 2-5 on the PP and the Oil failing to score on their two opps.
So how does that differ from the first game in Oilerville? The two games seem like bookends of each other… tight-checking, low-scoring games that ended regulation tied. (By the way, are we going to see a lot of OT this series?)
The first thing I was expecting to see was Manwood keeping 97 away from MacKinnon, like in Denver, but that’s not how it went all. He hard-matched 97 against MacKinnon as much as he could. Complete change in strategy. And Bednar was now double-shifting MacKinnon to find clean air. And it had a massive effect on the game…
On the third instance of those double-shifts, mid-2nd period, Burakovsky trips Drai for an Oil PP, but we fail to score and as is fashionable in the NHL, they get a powerplay straight back, a Boosh slash on Nichushkin, but the Oil get a kill back.
Five minutes into the 3rd, Bednar double-shifts MacKinnon out against Nuge for an own zone FO. Except Nuge wins the FO, the puck is quickly down in the other end and results in a Foggy goal. By this point Nichuskin has mostly taken over from Burakovsky at wing.
Jay knows they’ve just double-shifted, so he gets 97 back out there with goal legs against the Avs 3rd line, absorbs 29 with his 29, and then a shift later gets 97 back out there for the Avs 3rd line at the end of a shift. The Avs 3rd manages to get off for Mackinnon but the top dogs take an icing. Jay immediately throws out Drai to win the FO. Oilers keep the pressure up, and the Avs are forced to take another icing. Jay flips FO men again, sending 97 out against the Avs 1st line. But MacKinnon wins it and the Avs get clear. Makar has been on this whole time and he stays on.
Avs 3rd line with the help of Makar owns the Nuge line forcing three saves and a face off and Jay smartly trots Drai out there because Bednar is bringing MacKinnon straight back out despite their extended shift shortly before. Makar still stays on (and for yet another forward shift after this one)!
Drai wins the FO and the Oil escape, but now the two 29s are up against each other in the rotation. 97 fails to score on the Avs 3rd line yet again and the next time the two 29s are both out, MacKinnon scores to tie it up and send it to OT.
That third period was a real chess match between the two coaches and we’ve heard Woodcroft say many times one of the biggest parts of his job is “to get the right players out there at the right times.”
Just like the first game, Manson made sure he had Ceci-Nurse out there for every possible MacKinnon shift, whether they were being double-shifted or not. Both teams seem content to go PvP at home but not on the road. That is, both teams double-shifted their stars more heavily on the road than at home and they did this regardless of the score. The two coaches appear to have identical philosophies in this regard.
So I would expect we see 97 double-shifted heavily again out of the gate and for the Avs to return the favour with MacKinnon when the series comes to Rogers. The D match-ups should of course be expected to continue. But where will Drai line up?
Lines this game were:
91-97-13
18-29-56
37-93-10
16-71-44
(Ie Brassard)
Bednar was deploying Compher in Kadri’s spot, and elevated Nichushkin as the game went on. Rantanen however is a much better physical match for Kane than Tkachuk was and that will be a big battle all series. I wonder if Pujo notices and responds by elevating his game. And of course it’s going to be Landy on the other side. Thankfully he doesn’t have Gaudreau’s sheer offensive talent, but despite Pujo’s offensive shortcomings I think we need his D out there against the Swede who can play hard, direct hockey. Do we really want Yams against their Captain? Or Big Bison Butt? Sadly we have no recent prior evidence of the better choice. Good chance we see both in the long run.
I’ve got to go take care of some business, but when I return I will continue with a look at the Corski-Shotski picture like we did the first game.
Holland specifically mentions the growth of Puljujarvi, Yamamoto and McLeod as part of the “difference” in this year’s playoffs versus last year.
Puljujarvi is valued.
The question is to what extent is he valued……
Media avail is live now: Holland at the podium with Jay.
Breaking: Jay is sitting.
“I don’t know if we would be here if it wasn’t for Woody……. Players have really responded to him…… Woody is a big part of us sitting here today……” – Ken Holland
“Woody is a big part of us sitting here today……”
It is better to sit with a Woody than stand with a Woody, especially in public, at least in my experience.
Sitting is more…. constraining. Good circulation is a key thing! Sitting is more socially acceptable, but standing is healthier. Also, no publicity is BAD publicity they say….
Sorry. My mind is in the gutter tonight….
Everyone responds to a Woodie.
Bob Stauffer
@Bob_Stauffer
· 12m
Oilers Practice:
Draisaitl-McDavid-Hyman
Kane-RNH-Yamamoto
Foegele-McLeod-Puljujarvi
Archibald-Ryan-Kassian
(Shore-Brassard-Holloway-Turris-Malone extras)
Nurse-Ceci
Keith-Bouchard
Kulak-Barrie
Russell-Broberg
Smith
Koskinen
(Skinner is here but not on ice)
Glad everyone is accounted for (border/Covid).
I thought we might see Kane remain on the 2nd line since Colorado has been running 2 strong line this playoffs (though practice lines, you never know Woody’s plans for sure).
Gregor was suggesting (on with Seravelli on the DFO Rundown this morning), the Woody may look to have Kane on whichever line is matching with Kadri (similar to how Woody worked to get Kane vs. Tkachuk last series).
Not sure this means Drai and Nurse are feeling that much better. May just want them to get better acclimated to the elevation gain before game one.
Lines look good!
BREAKING: Drai and Nurse are both ON the ice for practice today!
UFA possible targets for 200 lbs+ scoring LW if Kane is too expensive, assuming any of them don’t get resigned by their current team before July 15.
Forsberg – also too expensive – he will likely get more and for longer than Kane.
Burakovsky
Copp
Nichushkin
Marchment
Niederreiter
Or maybe Alex Galchenyuk wants to resurrect his career for a low price deal.
Kane of course is the bird in the hand who seems to mesh with our top 6.
Marchment would be a nice add, though I’m not sure as a Kane replacement and if the money is there for it.
The two best goal-scorers on the list (I’m not includin Filip either, who will get -resigned regardless) are Nino and Nichushkin. Nichushkin has less of a record but is younger and maybe cheaper. He’s also a better skater.
Burakovsky is fast too, speaks German and played with 16yo Connor in Erie.
Can Colorado sign both after they ink MacKinnon, Kadri and a starting goalie? Lehkonen will also get a raise. Do you just go after whichever one they leave behind?
(And how much of this playoff drive for MacKinnon is because of contract year? I’m not sure mercenary motives are steely enough to win in the playoffs 😉 )
MacKinnon still has a another year on his existing contract.
would love Copp
Kane neutered Tkachuk last round easier than I thought. Kadri’s a different threat he’s hard to intimidate so I think the strategy is to make him do something stupid which he will if you bait him properly.
STL expended a lot of effort trying to bait Kadri and he kept his cool.
STL took the penalties.
With his history he could of easily been handed a suspension for the Binnington episode. Regardless he will do something bizarre it’s in his nature the key is to make the Av’s pay. I can’t remember which game it was but early on Toffoli Slew footed Foegele Oilers made Toffoli and the Flames pay instantly on the PP. Toffoli went MIA for the rest of the series.
Tune up by Kane should fix that problem! There was Flames reputed jerk that became very quiet! There is a vast difference in tough and being an ass!
You are assuming he had real balls to start with! The man is a bully and hits to hurt which in my book is worthy of contempt only!
I see a few more years where Kane is physically as able as he is currently, he is a physical specimen, but given he’ll be 31 to start next season, term is a worry but an extra year or two of term is likely needed to get the AAV down to something serviceable.
I don’t want to go long than 3 years.
I could be convinced to go 4 or 5 if it gets the AAV below $6MM but that contract would need to be structured properly with no material signing bonuses in the last few years and very limited trade protection in those last few years. It needs to have buyout friendly terms in those “extra seasons”.
It sounds like Holland has a good relationship with his agent, Dan Millstein – that does mean something.
I still don’t think there are going to be many teams lining up to get Kane this offseason.
Everyone knew he is a good hockey player.
I mean there is no way the Oilers can overpay for him even if they wanted to.
I think they have to gauge where the market is, and make a competitive offer against whatever other 2-3 offers are out there.
Physically able is only a small part! The willingness is the most important part! Kane is in my opinion the missing link! He is willing to get his hands dirty for the benefit of the team! The team has bonded around him! It is a beautiful thing!
I don’t think the Oilers should extend Evander Kane.
I mean sure, if he’s willing to sign for 3 years at 6 million, you go ahead and do it. But I would be shocked if Kane took anything less than max term and money. And someone is going to offer him a lot more than 3×6.
The Oilers could pay him at least 7 million next year and still fit everyone under the cap. Without trading JP or Yamamoto.This assumes you can offload Barrie, Kassian, and maybe Foegele. That’s not the issue.
The issue is do you want Kane under contract for 5 or more years at 7 million. Because in year 2 you are going to have to start shedding these young players. You probably won’t be able to afford any other forward over 2 million. And you have locked yourself into a forward core of Kane, Hyman and Nuge to the age of 35. Is this a good idea?
And we might be surprised at the cost to offload these contracts this summer. I think we all agree Kassian has negative value. So that trade will cost an asset. But what about Barrie? Or Foegele? Are they at least value neutral?
The easiest way to determine this is would you sign the player for the money and term left on his contract if they were a UFA. Would anyone give 4.5×2 for Barrie? What about 2.75×2 for Foegele? It’s kind of sobering when you look at it this way.
Also, based on their play to date, and if the Oilers give big money and term to Kane, I think the Oilers are more likely to trade Yamamoto than JP. Yamamoto is going to be more expensive this summer. He’s coming off a 20 goal season and has been the better playoff performer to date.
I think it all comes down to the San Jose big money decision. If they rule in his favour he might choose to hang around Connor and Leon for the next 3 years on a discount. Kane”s a gambler and gamblers love to win you can see it in his eyes when he scores.
Most UFAs go to the highest bidder. It’s less common to see a ‘Giordano’ type of contract. IMO, his current contract litigation and consequential result will have no bearing on his next contract decision.
Kane MAY take a bit less if he gets a solid reward in arbitration but that is FAR from a surety. A secondary source of income likely does not stop him from looking for market value on his NHL contract.
Players don’t sign for less than market value because they have income coming in from endorsements, appearance fees, etc., etc.
Sidney Crosby?
Not even a little bit – His AAV was over 14% of the cap when signed – he got paid in full.
That is so off base. Oveckin’s big contract was 19% of the cap. Malkin’s contract at the same time was 15.4%. Kane and Toews signed for higher percentages (15.2%). McDavid signed for 17% of the cap. Hell Matthews is getting paid 14.6% of the cap. Crosby took a significant discount compared to what he could have asked for and what he would have been paid. He was unquestionably the best player in the game when he signed that contract and could have asked to be the highest paid and he didn’t.
Kane is a proud man and justifiably so! He has had to fight for everything he has achieved! He has, in my opinion, delivered production wise and also been a great team mate. He has been a class act as an Oiler!
Kane will want to get paid! Given that what he brings to the table is worthy to get paid. There is an old saying that goes you get what you pay for! When you go to war he is a good man to have on your side!
The esteemed Rom with a cautionary thread about re-signing Evander Kane:
Romulus’ Apotheosis
@RomulusNotNuma
Returning to this because I’m getting some “signing Kane forever is a no brainer” feedback.
Leaving off-ice issues out of it, I would encourage Oilers’ fans to look at one simple stat that explains near everything Oilers’ management does and counsel caution: Shooting Percentage.
https://twitter.com/RomulusNotNuma/status/1531308299689287681?s=20&t=7s-7q_goPlFLx8pqEGYsFA
Normal Kane (without the Oilers numbers) is worth a 3 year contract at pretty significant dollars, considering he is a good fit.
Signing Kane means
1) running Smith/Skinner with a cheap NHL veteran backup in Bakersfield.
2) three, (probably) four, of the following players have to go. Kassian, Pujujarvi, Yamamoto, Foegele, Barrie, Kulak
If Kane is will to sign for 3 x $6 something, Holland will probably try to keep Kane.
Now would you sign him at the cost of sacrificing 3-4 of those? If so, whom would you part with?
Kassian, Foegele, Barrie, JP, Yamamoto.
I would be hesitant to trade either JP or Yamamoto because the RW depth chart is too thin — our prospects aren’t ready. Ride the RFA lightning for now. I would also prefer to keep Barrie for one more year, if possible. He has played solid defensively over the last 3 months (less risky plays) and I still prefer him on PP1 until Bouchard signs a long-term deal. His $4.5 x 2 would not be difficult to move, imo. Also, who would be replacing him for the cap savings?
The two obvious guys are Foegele and Kassian.
I think you want Leon at centre during the regular season. You need to somehow keep JP and Yamamoto. The defence depth is good. Would part with Barrie.
I’ll wait till after the playoffs to formulate a position.
Focusing only on playoff SH%?
The guy scored at a 40+ goal regular season pace with just a small uptick in SH% vs his recent past (14.5% this season vs. 11%+ each of his last 3 seasons in SJ).
Re-signing Kane (if it happens) will not be because of his playoff SH%.
Kane’s career shooting percentage is 9.9%.
His shooting percentage in the playoffs is 23.5%
In the regular season it was 14.5%.
His PDO in the playoffs is 1.0444
In the regular season it was 1.047
By way of comparison, in his last season in San Jose, his shooting percentage was 11.3% and his career high-water mark was 11.25% in San Jose.
The highest number of goals scored in a regular season is 30.
He is absolutely riding a heater.
Did he have Connor and Leon feeding him pucks in those earlier seasons? A lot of what he has done here have been tip ins. Not even shooting. Go F yourself.
No one scores a goal per game without being on a heater. He’d be a $12M player if you take his playoff boxcars at face value.
Your SH% numbers are off. Kane shot 11.2%, 12.1%, 11.3% in his 3 full SJ seasons, then 14.5% this year. As noted, it’s reasonable to expect a bit of a bump playing with McDavid and/or Draisaitl, and that’s what we saw.
IIRC, he was a 28 goal per 82 game player prior to joining the Oilers. He scored at a 42 goal pace this regular season, which was backed up by easily the highest individual expected goal rates of his career (ie – he was getting more and better chances with the Oilers than before).
Holland should be expecting a 35-45 goal player, should he re-sign Kane, and that would be an entirely reasonable expectation.
And Holland expected Nurse to repeat his offensive output of last season which was also driven by an unsustainable shooting percentage.
Based on that, he signed Nurse to that contract one year earlier than required and paid him about a million more than he’s worth.
And, oh yeah, Nurse also plays a lot with McDavid.
Enjoy your narratives, and also that Lucic to Arizona trade.
You enjoy yours as well.
Actually I think Lucic will end up in Seattle but was merely using him as an example of why Arizona will have much better options than Kassian and Foegele who have too much term and dollars to interest them.
There is also some speculation Lucic may retire after the Flames pay him his $3 million signing bonus in July.
Lucic isn’t an option for Arizona, since Lucic won’t go to Arizona.
Why are you struggling with this concept?
It’s not a good example if the chances of it happening are almost zero.
You showed jp by bringing up an entirely different player in an entirely different position and in an entirely different contract situation.
If there’s anything I’ve learned over the years, it’s that you don’t quibble over “overpaying” your best players. I complained that Draisaitl was overpaid by $1M when he signed his last deal. My argument was based on his high shooting percentage heater he went on in the playoffs. Well that argument looks pretty dumb now. Pay your impact, top minute players the money. Don’t overpay role players.
The thing with Kane is, he’ll be 31 prior to the start of the season so, presumably a material term contract, that will be big money for likely regression years. He should have a few big years left but, you never know, he’s at the age where the cliff sometimes/often comes fast.
You have to draw a line in the sand with term. 3 years? 4 years? Anything more and you are better off walking away.
He’s one year older than Hyman. Holland wanted to give Hyman 8 years in order to lower the cap hit.
One year older and the contract coming one year later so a total of two years older at signing.
There is a difference between 29 and 31, right?
I’ve always put my personal cap at 3 years – thing is, as his success continues and grows, the AAV for 3 years becomes too high.
The comparison is idiotic even for you!
never underestimate the guy 😀
Nurse can thank Klefbom’s injury and being close to Connor for getting that massive overpay. That contract,will be a massive issue in a couple years.
https://www.nhl.com/player/evander-kane-8475169
Look at shot volume.
It’s instructive.
Your narratives and assessments have no value, no one cares about your goalposts as you’re buried far too deep in L’s.
He is playing in a totally different circumstance! Your read on him is totally incorrect which is online with your read on everything Oiler! You discount what talented players playing with other talented players are able to produce!
Kane has more class than that!😉
Exactly. Mr. F’in false narrative again. Finds one useless post and throws it up here to get everyone going. What a loser.
I wonder if Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk are going to be signed to big deals based on high shooting percentages?
No, they will be paid based on their regular season numbers. Both between 9-10 mil and Calgary will be done for years
There are definite ways to sign Kane that don’t involve moving Puljujarvi.
Holland knows he “can’t keep everyone” and he’ll sit down with the coach post-season, I would think, to discuss what the coach is looking for going forward.
We know both the GM and the coach value Jesse Puljujarvi – to the extent he is moved for cap structuring, the return for Holland will be real and substantial. Holland will not move him for pennies on the dollar, of that i am confident.
I also don’t think that Puljuarvi or Yamamoto will be moved – it could happen but I don’t think it will. Developed players that are top 6/middle 6, should never break the bank but will provide value and are still pre-prime.
My guess / hope is that they get Arizona to take Kassian & Foegele. I think it will cost a prospect like Samorukov as well as a 3rd rounder.
When Arizona acquired Andrew Ladd (cap hit $5.5 million – years left) they received two seconds and a third round pick).
Kassian and Foegele both have two years left on their contracts at a combined $5.95 million.
Complicating things further is that Foegele’s contract was back loaded so he receives $3.25 million in the last year of his contract and that may sway the cash strapped Coyotes.
It would seem likely the Flames will be trying to offload the Lucic contract ($5.25 million cap hit) but it is much more attractive since, after paying a $3 million signing bonus in July, the Flames will only owe $1 million for Arizona to absorb.
Also complicating things is that the Oilers second and third round picks are encumbered. If they happen to reach the cup final this season, they will be without second round picks in both 2022 and 2023.
Given that Arizona has 29 picks in the next three drafts (8 seconds and 5 thirds) I doubt they will see much value in having more.
I would expect they would want a first round pick or a haul of prospects to take on Kassian and Foegele.
Foegele could be traded without costing the Oilers anything, so Kassian is the only player that should be being discussed here.
Is so, if you’re Arizona, would you rather pay Lucic $1 million or Kassian $3.5 million this upcoming season and a total of $5.8 million over the next two seasons?
This of course assumes Lucic would accept a trade to Arizona. He has a modified NTC and can limit who he is traded to only 8 teams. Hard to fathom that Arizona would be on it.
It’s probably moot unless you think Lucic puts Arizona on his 8 team trade list.
Oh yeah Lucic will waive for Arizona for sure. hahaha
…
You have zero idea what Arizona will be doing or asking for, and I mean how could you seeing as you’re buried 6 feet deep in L’s.
Not so sure Woody values JP as since he has taken over as coach he hasn’t seen the PP minutes, seen less ice time(about 5 min less/game) and moved to the third line….
Puljujarvi is still maturing. When he’s on his game he’s a top-6 RW. As he continues to develop in the NHL we should see him bring his A-game with more consistency.
Kane is there right now, but it took him a long time to get there. Age 25 Evander Kane was awfully inconsistent on and off the ice.
If you can dole out 3-year contracts to both of them, ~$6M to Kane, and ~$2.5M to JP I think you can get the best of the former before he declines, and start to get the peak of the latter.
One thing Ken Holland know is not to bank on a 23-year old to do a man’s job. We all grow with experience, and it’s the experienced players who are complimenting McDavid & Draisaitl on this playoff run.
But don’t give up on the young players. They’re accumulating experience and need to take the helm when the vets start to age out.
Puljujarvi might still be maturing, but with scoring, I think its usually a case of you have it or you don’t.
Puljujarvi doesn’t have a high end scoring touch or he’d be a first line forward already.
I think the Oilers might’ve gotten lucky with Puljujarvi as his boxcars took a dip over the final third of the season and playoffs.
He brings mid-6 offense ATM but I suspect he’ll be a 20-25 G, 50-60 point guy rather consistently.
There was a point this season his next contract was going to start with a $5 … but now it will start with only a $3.
I would say 2.5
WARNING – WALL OF TEXT AHEAD!
IMO, there are 3 issues raised here:
1 – Can the Oilers get enough value for JP to make trading him a net-positive?
2 – Can the Oilers sign Kane and make it at least a net neutral deal where it doesn’t require shedding valuable players at below market rates before the deal expires?
3 – Can the Oilers find value contracts to fill out the roster if they sign / re-sign / trade these players?
———————————————————
1 – Can the Oilers get enough value for JP to make trading him a net-positive?
I like JP as a player, as he’s quirky, and that as a characteristic appeals to me. I also like how defensively responsible he is, and how physically impactful he is on the ice. He is limited by his offense, and that’s a real issue.
But, IMO, that’s a great reason to re-sign him for one year, and see how he does when not on the top line. I think JP is much more of a 2nd line defensively responsible winger than anything else. I think his scoring rates are very likely to decline when not playing with MCD / LD, and that could be a very good reason to not go long with the young man this year, and test that hypothesis. If he does continue to score, he’s more valuable next off-season.
Alternatively, if the team does get a valuable offer for him now (clearly worth more than a 2nd round pick as was suggested as a return a couple off-seasons ago) it may be worth cashing him it. It would not be my preference, but if you could move him for a 1st and a 3rd, or a 1st + they take Kassian without retention, those are deals that would be worth considering.
————————————————————
2 – Can the Oilers sign Kane and make it at least a net neutral deal where it doesn’t require shedding valuable players at below market rates before the deal expires?
The answer here is 100% maybe. If it’s more than 5M per, it can’t be for longer than 3 years, because that’s when LD’s current deal ends, and he’s a bigger priority to keep than Kane is. And the year after you have CMD’s new deal too, and he’s the franchise. If it’s less than 5M per, then it’s possible to keep him, but that adds a lot of risk on the back end of the deal. I expect the deal value to be at least 20M overall, and he’s probably worth at least 6M per right now. If someone offers him 6×6, the Oilers can’t match. If they do…. The man’s a 30 year old PF. Milan Lucic? James Neal? What could go wrong?
And that doesn’t take into account Ryan McLeod, Yamamoto, JP and Kulak (100% worth re-signing IMO, even at an increase, if necessary) and 4th line players to fill out the roster. Could also be managed with divestment of other contracts, but this action would also come at a cost of assets, which is not desirable to building at successful franchise in the long-term.
Reasonable longer-term case scenario:
2022-2023 Salary Cap: 82.5M
Oilers trade Kassian and Foegle with no salary retention. (saves ~6M/ year)
Existing Signed Forwards – CMD, LD, ZH, RNH, DR, DS (33.6M)
Existing Signed Defense – DN, DK, TB, CC, EB, PB, (24.25M)
Existing Signed Goalies – MS, SS (3M)
Dead Cap Space – (~4.2M)
Spent Cap – ~65M
Go long with McLeod and Yamamoto at a team friendly rate (~3Mx6 years each) (now 71M)
Bridge Jesse (2.5M x1) (now 73.5M)
Re-sign Kulak (3.5Mx5) (now 77M)
Fill out 3 bottom forwards (0.8M x 3 players = 2.4M) (79.4M)
Cap Space for Kane = 3.1M
So, assuming everything else goes well and can cleanly dispose of Kassian and Foegle, they still need to find at least another 2.5M in cap space plus money for replacement players if one of the existing players is traded.
Interestingly, 2023-24 the Oilers do get 2.25M of dead capspace back after Lucic’s deal expires and Sekera’s penalty ends. Perhaps there’s a scenario where some of Kane, Yamo, McLeod, Jess and Kulak all take 1 year deals with the intention of splitting that money at the end of next year?
The Oilers have already bridged Jesse once, and Yamo once, so… maybe they bridge McLeod for one year, and then offer him the same 6yr deal they offered Yamo above…Still limits the money available for Kane to a little over 5M per, but that gets the numbers into a functional ball-park. Then it becomes a question of term.
So, bottom line, it looks possible, but will cost the team depth and either prospects or picks to divest of what I’d call luxury bottom end roster players AND will require team friendly/ bridge deals for most re-signing players.
—————————————————————-
3 – Can the Oilers find value contracts to fill out the roster if they sign / re-sign / trade these players?
Lets look at the Oilers own stables first.
Archibald, Josh 29 UFA
Brassard, Derick 34 UFA
Sceviour, Colton 33 UFA
Turris, Kyle 32 UFA
Perlini, Brendan 26 UFA
Malone, Brad 33 UFA
These are the Oilers UFA NHL depth forwards this year. I don’t see any of them being re-signed except maybe Brad Malone. He’s been a useful tweener and provides mentorship in Bakersfield.
Benson, Tyler 24 RFA
Holloway, Dylan 20 .925M
Lavoie, Raphael 21 .870M
I think Benson’s footspeed will limit his ability to play in the NHL. He’s not bad and works as filler, but will not thrive on this team. Holloway will likely get an NHL look in the fall, but isn’t a lock. Lavoie is not on an NHL trajectory at present, but may yet turn it around. He would not be a prudent bet for NHL time in 2022 – 2023.
Any / all of these players could be brought back, but none would be players I would expect much from. This makes all but perhaps Holloway (who’s ceiling is not yet determined) marginal value as NHL players for the Oilers.
The rest of the Oilers forwards / Bakersfield forwards are not in a place I would consider them good bets for NHL action next season.
So… what’s out on the FA market? I limited my search to players who are:
coming off a standard contract
are forwards
are 6’0 or bigger
are 180lbs or more
made 1M or less last year and
sorted by points
https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/free-agents/2023/points/all/forwards?contract=standard&limits=height-72-81,weight-180-300,caphit-0-1000000
There are some familiar names here, and there is value to be had, but it’s not going to be easy to get them at the same price. Which means effectively it’s a crapshoot, until you get into the weeds. Oilers need fast rough forwards who can PK and score more than they give up. For less than 1M. Good luck!
Ultimately, I think all of these are doable, but taking this route limits depth quality and injury options for the team overall. Additionally, none of these scenario’s manage Klefbom’s LTIR, so hopefully that can be accommodated too.
So strange to see John Hayden at the bottom of that list. I’ve known him since he was like 9 years old. He was a phenom at that age. He could score like you cannot believe. Absolutely a great kid, great family. His mom and dad are very nice people. His sister is a very good athlete, she won a national championship in field hockey at North Carolina I believe. He’s big, played for USNDT, had everything but can’t do it in the NHL. So strange.
Hello Lowetide and your many friends. I was gone for a month in Malta, Amalfi and Nice/Monaco despite knowing the playoffs would be well underway, because I had an opportunity to do a great home exchange. As the Don would say,
“it was an offer I couldn’t refuse”.
At any rate, while I woke up every morning to check the scores while away, and knew the results of both rounds, I was soooo happy to be able to view all the games on the weekend via NHL Network.
I have to say that even though I knew the results, I was on the edge of the couch for the last two games against L.A., and I feel that those two games were where the Oilers found their game or mojo.
I have to say I was whooping and hollering as I watched the Flames games. My wife couldn’t figure out why I was so pumped given that I knew the results, but wow, they were not to be denied..especial MachDavid. Having said all that, it might have been a good thing that I missed the games live as I might have had a coronary. As it is, I’m already nervous about the next series. At any rate, I’m happy for the team and the long suffering fans.
Prospectibration!
Shawinigan is on the brink of elimination in what has been a closely contested series, with Game 4 on home ice. Can The Bourg assimilate a deciding Game 5, or will his season come to an end this night? We wait.
Puck drop @ 5 p.m. Hairy Hill time.
I miss Alberta sometimes, living in Mexico. Every small town seems to be named Grande something, Prairie something, or some number of Hills…
Would Glen Sather have let his playoff goal scoring leader (eg. Kurri) walk to resign a much ballyhooed prospect (eg Bonsignore) instead?
We’re making the GM job harder than it needs to be.
While I agree that seems unlikely, we don’t know. Sather never had to deal with the cap. The job is harder now.
But we don’t even know what Kane’s demands are, so who cares at this moment? We’ve got a playoff series to win.
Pre 2005 you are probably right. However since the cap was brought into the league in 2005, Glen Sather has not had the sterling reputation as a hockey savant. The GM job is harder.
Well, when Pocklington imposed a cap of his own on Sather, he traded Kurri to the Flyers along with Brown and and Foster for Mellanby, Berube and Fisher.
That’s not why Kurri left.
https://oilersnation.com/2020/05/30/an-oral-history-of-how-jari-kurri-left-the-edmonton-oilers-to-play-hockey-in-italy/
My mistake – I had had forgotten about that gap year in Kurri’s career. The overall dismantling of that team though was Pocklington imposed constraints on salary, but certainly Kurri’s move to Italy reduced Sather’s trading leverage even further.
I worked with a guy who played with Kurri on that team in Italy. We sat at the same table in the lunch room and got to know one another a bit.
He was drafted second round by the Oil in ’89, Richard Borgo.
Had some interesting stories of training camp and the battles, and playing in the AHL, etc.
Thanks – you just sent me down a HockeyDB hole…..
Bonsignore as a Puljujarvi comparable is pretty weak.
And Kane has been exceptional, but he is no Kurri.
I understand your intent, but Bonsignore was drafted 4 years after Kurri’s last season as an Oiler. And Bonsignore only played 21 games over 4 seasons. He is a far cry from Puljujarvi, despite the physical similarities and draft position.
Maybe using an Ethan Moreau and Bill Guerin comparison would be closer to JP and EK?
Wow! Billy Guerin was a star power forward that scored 429 Goals with his heavy sniper shot. He also won 2 Cups, I don’t see a comparison.
But Kurri is closer?
Context is important. I picked players who played on the same team at the same time. Moreau being close to JP’s age today and Guerin, being close to 30 and similar in style to Kane (and on the verge of being traded), at a crossroads in his Oiler career, much like Kane. The GM has a decision to make.
Moreau was a big first rounder whose scoring is comparable to JP and Guerin, is a power forward, like Kane, who had a great reputation as a hard-nosed, physical goal scorer.
Guerin was sent away after his 30th birthday and had most of his success with Pittsburgh AFTER he was traded from Edmonton. He did win a Cup with NJD, but was 9th in goal-scoring (3 goals) on the team during their run. He was tied for 4th with the Pens as a 38 year old, with 9 goals.
Guerin retired the season, following the Cup win, but still scored 21 goals as a 39 year old. That being said, his scoring rates were highest during his brief stint in Boston (his home town), after trending in that direction in Edmonton.
Could Kane have a similar career into his late 30’s? And is Puljujarvi more of a Moreau-type player? Kane has barely played in the playoffs in his career, so it is absolutely possible.
Perhaps it is not the absolute perfect comparison, but it is in fact universes closer than Bonsignore and Kurri. No?
*correction, I thought he played is Pittsburgh for many years, but he actually moved around a surprising number of times after he left Edmonton (5 teams in 8 seasons). As well, despite 2 cups, Guerin did not play on many teams that went beyond the 1st round (6 in 18 seasons).
There are parallels here wth Kane, who is only in his 3rd playoffs in 13 seasons.
Impressively well thought out comparable. And more fair than I thought originally.
He really did have a long and productive tail to his career.
To Reja’s comment, Kane has 286 goals before turning 31. Guerin had only scored 215 by the same age, then 214 more after (though definitely not a typical aging curve!).
Just going to leave this here…
Regular Season
Kane 22 Gs 43 GP
Puljuarvi 14 Gs 65 GP
Playoffs
Kane 12 Gs
Puljujarvi 2 Gs
#ResultsMatter
Kane’s Agent’s Ask – 8.0 million
JP ‘s Agent’s Ask – 2.5 million
#CapCrunch
To add to Bag of Puck’s point. All the Oiler’s emerging prospects seem light on offense, Puljarjarvi, Yamamoto, McLeod and maybe Holloway appear to be light on the goal scoring department. I wonder if a guy like Carter Savoie could replace come of those goals. I think his speed means he will have to play with Driasaitl vs. McDavid
Savoie won’t be an NHL option next year unless there is a massive spike. He played 2 AHL games (and was a healthy scratch for all others) and, while he didn’t get many shifts or great linemates, he didn’t even look AHL ready.
He’s a real prospect with real potential but he’s not close.
In my opinion.
Source?
It is reasonably straight forward if those are the cap numbers.
There’s a whole lot more grey area (IMO) if the numbers are $7M and $4M.
Mate, I think we’re possibly broken as a fanbase after the decade of darkness. I saw people pushing on twitter for the Oilers to lose in the WCF so that we keep the second round pick and only give up a 3rd for Keith.
I’m all for draft picks and following prospects, but wowzers, if there’s a chance to get to the SCF you take it. How many times have we made it out of round 1 of the playoffs in the last 20 years again?
On that same note, I’m a massive Puljujarvi fan, but if there’s a choice between him and Kane for the next 2-3 years I think we have to go with Kane. He’s dominant.
The goal should be to keep both:)
Those aren’t Oilers fans if that’s what they want.
I wish I would have fully trusted the Oilers in five call. Was a bit wishy washy on Calgary’s defense.
This series is harder to handicap than the last one. The top two lines plus Makar are the real deal for the Avalanche. Can Nuge and Co deploy the bend but don’t break strategy against Kadri and his guys? Is Draisaitl healthy enough to take 2C duties (this was the regular season strategy)? Do you keep McD/Drai as a pairing and alter double shifts between them? Or would you turn on the super blender game by game? I look forward to ManWood deployment
Special teams will play a role. Avs have led the league in PPs drawn for like 5 years running (at a curiously higher rate than everyone else…) but that cuts both ways. Oilers PP is deadly.
The bottom six of the Avs is good but not great. They could steal a game but could also be easy pickings for McD/Leon double shifts.
Avs Defense I think is their weakest spot. Offensive yes but the Oilers are faster on the forecheck and backcheck compared to the competition so far. Oilers are also a lot Bigger faster than teams the Avs have played. There is hay to be made if you can get McD/Leon out against a bottom 3rd pairing, if you can target Byram and/or Manson and if you can catch Makar/Toews offensing.
Leon/McD are scoring 5v5 at crazy rates. Nothing compares on Colorado.
On the health front I think everyone is closer to full power now, than they were at the start of the playoffs for the Good Guys. That bodes well.
Smith vs Keumper… this is what everyone wants to see right here. Bet on the old cuss or spend big on the FA everyone else wanted? Love this matchup.
This is the most even series so far.
I like the Oilers in 6.
Go Oilers!
Your characterization of the Blues as small is absolutely wrong.
Parayko 6’6″ 228
Bortuzzo 6’4″ 220
Scandella 6’3″ 215
Faulk 6’0″ 215
Leddy 6’0″ 220
Rosen 6’1″ 185
Krug is only 5’9″ 195 but he did not play against Colorado.
The reference to the Avs defence handling a fast and big forecheck has nothing to do with the size of the Blues D.
He said “the Oilers are bigger, faster than the teams the Avs have played”.
Both Minnesota and St. Louis are bigger than the Oilers and Colorado disposed of both of them.
Suggesting the Oilers are faster than the Avalanche is also not true.
McDavid and MacKinnon both have rocket skates but Makar, Toews and Byram are all elite skaters.
McLeod is certainly fast but his impact on the game is much more limited than 3 D who are on the ice for 45 minutes a night.
If you look there is a way to have our cake and eat it too. Problem is cake will be served on a 41 year old plate with a rickity spoon.
If we go with smith and skinner for goaltending, sign kulak and promote broberg and a 7th dman then move barrie for a non roster piece. Also kassian will need to be moved out at the cost of at least a 3rd rounder.
This is true. It’s likely possible to keep Puljujarvi, Yamamoto and McLeod while also re-signing Kane (depending on the ask from everyone). That would require all of Barrie, Kassian and Foegele to be moved without salary retention though, and it’s not a guarantee the salaries would all fit even then.
Truth but I just wanted to show that for all our desires it takes a piece from somewhere else.
Yes, it’s possible to have our cake and eat it, but it’s not possible to have everything we want.
The correct plan of action is to lock up the impactful youth first. The secondary list is free agents/trades.
Kane has been great but he and his agent should be made aware of the organizational priorities and order of things to come. If they are willing to be patient (to a certain degree), the answer will emerge.
In terms of cap space, LT has previously suggested moving Klefbom’s contract with a sweetener. I believe this frees up $4.1M (versus having LTIR space).
Keith is “using” Klefbom’s LTIR. So trading Klefbom while you have Keith’s $5.5 million AAV makes no sense. It means another $4 million in cap space one has to find for Keith.
Also, supposedly, Klefbom’s contract was not insured. So the owner and not the insurance companies are paying.
I don’t believe this is quite correct.
Both Keith and Klefbom are on the roster at the same time before game 1 of the season. Klefbom’s $4 mill LTIR can be used over the cap to play the extra bit pieces at the end of the roster once the season begins, or for a 1 year rental player acquired during the year that comes off the books again at the end of the season when Klefbom counts on the active roster again (eg. Kane).
The benefit of trading Klefbom’s contract is that we can actually sign and play a more significant $4 million dollar player in the offseason. Most of those trades and signings occur during the offseason and we are currently handcuffed by Klef.
Someone please correct me if I am off base
https://twitter.com/PuckPedia/status/1447673722370887683?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1447673723759173633%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es2_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Foilersnation.com%2F2021%2F10%2F11%2Fedmonton-oilers-make-final-moves-ahead-of-roster-deadline%2F
The Oilers initial official roster had Klefbom and Stalock on LTIR.
There is Duncan Keith’s cap allocation. Without Klefbom on LTIR, you have to find an extra $4 million under the cap that Keith didn’t account for last year.
Good morning everyone, has anyone seen the report on possible Oilers having COVID?
Hope this isn’t true and if it is, hope for a speedy recovery.
I shared the link down below. Not much detail yet
Appreciate it!
I suspect it is just risk mitigation. If you drive across the border, no COVID test is required. If you fly across the border you have to have an antigen test within 24-hours of departure. So, if the team drives across and does not test then there can be no positive results.
Can you imagine if 97, though feeling great, tests positive and has to isolate? Series over.
#smartmanagement
Reports are that the team bused from Vancouver across the border and then flew to Colorado. They would not have had to test in that regard.
Of course, if someone is not feeling well and having symptoms they would likely test and that could be an issue. Could be a coach or a trainer or another staffer and not necessarily a player as well – if there is a positive case or two.
Either way, I will be looking forward to today’s practice to see if there is intel.
— Kassian is a proxy. Seems like Oil were bidding against themselves.
— Not ideal but it would be ironic that Keith’s contract precludes Kane from resigning.
— Lots of things “not ideal” really fell in place this year:
a) after losing what 13-15 and having to fire Tipp: no “real” coach would have come in unless they were given lots of term which oilers weren’t in position to offer (for sure Holland at that point was on thin ice). I’d be skeptical that if Tipp survived the season Woodcroft would be a candidate for this team.
b) during these struggles a legit top-6 power forward became available for only money. That never happens. I’d be skeptical that Holland would have looked at him if team was humming along pre-collapse rate.
— Kane and Woodcroft are far outside of Holland’s comfort zone. Fortunately Holland didn’t go down with the ship and these two options saved his tenure IMO.
I would agree that Kane and Woodcroft were major pieces in “saving the season”. I also give FULL credit to Holland for both moves.
— If by full credit you mean that he was the GM who did these transactions then we agree
— I believe some are willing to applaud these moves as proof of Hollands acumen as a GM.
— Others are just happy with what has transpired: it was blow up the org time at the tail end of the losing streak that caused these out of the norm moves. Desperate measures for desperate times worked out
— We are all glad it worked. Kane was a gift and Woodcroft a godsend. Both those things became available because Holland hadn’t done a good job in roster construction or hiring the right coach.
Full credit for making each transaction happen.
I have provided, in detail, my reasonings behind both of these, many times. Happy to do so again, if you wish?
Kane being available was indeed a gift, a gift provided to 31 NHL franchises and managers – Kane signing with the Oilers took a bunch of work by the GM and he should get full credit for it.
Nice to see the team finally in a position of success after 20 years + of dismal failures.
Win two more series and Death march becomes Dynasty march.
BTW, how is the playoff deathmarch going? Is there a link?
The Kane and Barrie experiment both worked out perfectly for the player and the Oilers.
Last year Barrie signed a show me contract and he was great – I believe he was gone to another team when Larsson changed all the plans. Holland was able to fall back to a player he knew.
This year Kane signed a show me contract and he was great – I believe he will want more term and AAV than we can afford. I believe the plan will be to let him go.
Players are seeing what is happening and another will come along to keep the story going…maybe Kuzmenko? Maybe Forsberg
Pre-WoodMan I’d thought the Barrie re-signing a waste of cap that should have been spent elsewhere. I’m okay with it now.
Given he’s limited to a one-year ELC, there is no risk in signing Kuzmenko but he would so NOT be a player that can be counted on to even make the team let alone play in the top 6.
Are there examples of point per game KHL players completely failing to transition to the NHL?
Probably there are, but most of the failures are more 0.6 or 0.7 point per game types, no? (Tkachev, Burdastov, etc).
Probably but I can’t name them.
Of note, as of now, his one PPG season is the major outlier in his KHL career.
Again, little risk on a one-year ELC but one spike season in the KHL at 26 doesn’t guarantee any sort of NHL success – to me at least.
In the DFO Rundown, Seravelli said he thinks Holland will be top 3 for GM of the year….
I would also be sad to see Puljujarvi leave. I feel like he still has untapped potential. I always seems like a goal away from finding the confidence he needs to be a really good player. He might also be the guy who will Always be “one goal” away from being a really good player.
I guess it depends on Kane. If he’s willing to meet in the middle(say 5.5 X 6 years as I think he could get 7.5 to 8 X 4 on the open market), Holland may have to sacrifice someone to try and accommodate Kane.
If Holland is in “win now” mode he’ll do whatever he can to give McDrai the tools to make continuous runs to the cup. I expect he is and will be sad to see whoever is sacrificed for the sake of a chance at Stanley.
I wish we could keep them all and watch Kane light it up And watch the kids develop. I’m resigned to the fact that, if your really pushing for Stanley and believe you have a legit shot, you can’t have it both ways.
It’s weird to be happy making legit runs at Stanley and yet sad at having to let go of fan favourites before their primes due to costs.
Am I sadly happy? Or happily sad?
I just cant get on board with 6 year term for Kane. And given his history I’m not sure other teams would as well. Max 4 years for me, so it may mean we let him go. I think we need to keep some cap space in our pocket for Goal or defence whether thats this summer or next.
I agree it’s not ideal but he is the perfect compliment for the top 6 right now and could reasonably produce for the next 3-4 years. That could be our cup window. I feel like, since we’ve made it to the final 4, Holland will be thinking of winning not developing as much. Prospects who are no longer one entries and won’t sign a bridge will be moved for younger or cost effective vets, imo.
I still hold out hope to keep all three but I also want cups, so…conundrum…
I really disagree that Holland’s history suggests he’ll trade Puljujarvi.
There must be some comparable move(s) in his 25 years as a GM, but I’m not sure what it is, and that type of trade most certainly has not been common.
Holland’s history shows a lack of care or understanding managing the cap. He’s already traded cheap, young, pre-prime players who were useful as-is but painted as struggling. He’s already paid vets beyond their value when he feels they supply a need. And that’s only during his tenure as GM of the Oilers.
And we are heading to “win now” territory. Making the prospects more vulnerable if the can’t be signed to cost effective contracts or space is needed for prime vets. Holland has also shown he likes his veteran players in bottom six. Don’t leave a lot of space for youngsters except exceptional ones who can play top 6.
Foegele has played 9 games in this playoffs so far for the Oilers. Bear, about to turn 25 (only one year younger than Foegele), has yet to play for the Hurricanes in 13 playoff games. There is no indication he is injured as he is listed as a healthy scratch (like he was for several games down the stretch).
Bear, so far, has lost his job to a 33 year old Brendan Smith, who despite being a first round pick, has pretty much been a career bottom pair replacement level defenseman (Ian Cole may be playing the right side, but if Bear went in, Smith would come out and Cole would move back to his natural side (assuming no injuries)). While Carolina’s top 4 are very good to excellent, it’s debatable if Cole would play on the Oilers ahead of the current 6 and Smith would definitely not be ahead of even Russell.
Caleb Jones is still fighting to have a viable long term NHL career. Both may pan out as NHL defenseman but right now, I doubt either gets much of a raise for next season.
The entire list of NHLish players here is Bear, Jones and Lagesson (the latter a pending UFA). Bear-Foegele has been contentious, but does not fit the template LT laid out for Puljujarvi (‘then deal Puljujarvi to a team that can send a less expensive, under control, player who addresses need’).
Holland has actually been extremely risk averse in trading away young players both in Edmonton and over two decades in Detroit.
Is there any GM who doesn’t pay, and sometimes overpay, veteran players? Joe Sakic would be the closest, as he doesn’t (usually) do it (any more).
What’s Holland’s list of overpays with the Oilers? Kassian, Chiasson, Turris. Maybe Nurse?
Holland may sign Kane and trade Puljujarvi, but I don’t think it’s fair to say his past suggests that’s the most likely course.
There’s also a legitimate discussion as to whether Puljujarvi’s next deal (were he to sign for term) will be a value deal or not. There seems to be an assumption that it will be, but that’s no more certain IMO than that Kane’s next deal will be an overpay.
Joe will be paying this summer.
Ruh roh – possibly a snag, nothing tangible has been reported
https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/not-good-covid-issues-with-edmonton-oilers-nhl-insider-reports
The Oilers are just avoiding Covid testing, which means convoluted travel.