For this old Oilers observer, last night took me back over the years to events of long ago. Ray Cote in 1983, Esa Tikkanen in 1986, Martin Gelinas in 1990, Mike Grier in 1997, Brad Winchester in 2006, Ryan McLeod in 2022. Rookie forwards who have some success in the playoffs as freshmen signal the possibilities of things to come. McLeod (and Evan Bouchard, not technically a rookie) are gaining important experience in this playoff spring. It will benefit in the years to come.
I’m going to tell you three things about last night: Darnell Nurse is hurt, to the point where Jay Woodcroft is going to need to move him down the depth chart. Brett Kulak can move up, he’s not as physical but he can fly. Edmonton needs speed against the top lines.
Second: The Oilers got screwed by the offside call last night. It was a ridiculous call. You are allowed to be angry about it. You can also look forward to a make-up call later in the series. The 1980’s Oilers got these calls, the 2020’s Oilers will too if they should up in the Conference Final every year.
Finally, and this is the important one: The Oilers can win this series. The club needs to tighten up, and find out if Mike Smith’s fever streak is over, but this team can outscore damn near anything.
NEW: Oilers GM Ken Holland gets how much credit for playoff success?
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Oilers GM Holland gets how much credit for playoff success?
- New DNB: Why Cale Makar’s unquestionable goal did in the Oilers in Game 1
- DNB: Oilers vs. Avalanche is Manson vs. Manson
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Ryan McLeod uses blazing speed to move up depth chart
- DNB and Dan Robson: Connor McDavid is the best skater NHL’s skating greats have ever seen
- Peter Baugh and Lowetide: Breaking down Oilers vs. Avalanche
- Lowetide: Why Jordan Dumais could be NHL Draft steal for Edmonton Oilers
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Zach Hyman’s value continues to rise in playoffs
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Ryan Nugent-Hopkins having effective playoffs before big goals
- DNB: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins gets his chance to shine in the playoffs
- DNB: Cody Ceci making himself ‘irreplaceable’ in playoffs
- Lowetide: Oilers future relies on quality coaching replacement in Bakersfield
- Lowetide: Has Oilers goalie Mike Smith earned the net in 2022-23?
- DNB: This is how Connor McDavid wins: ‘He’s like a shark circling the waters’
- DNB: How Dave Manson is making the Oilers blue line better
GOALTENDERS
Mike Smith had a rough start and the defense in front of him had a tougher one. Stopped 19 of 25, .760, and will need to be much better on Thursday night. Edmonton needs to steal just one game in Denver, and have been fortunate in Game Two this spring. Mikko Koskinen stepped in and played well, stopping 20 of 21, .952. I think there’s going to be a goalie controversy now, and if Smith needs a rest then by all means start MK tomorrow night, but Smith has been quality for weeks now. I’d stick with the veteran.
DEFENSE
Brett Kulak was the only LH defenseman who had wheels last night, and I think the coaching staff should up his minutes. He had an assist, shot, four hits, and of course was in chase mode. Tyson Barrie had two shots, two takeaways, turned over the puck for the EN goal. This duo faced the Kadri line most often.
Darnell Nurse is playing hurt, so those who are teeing off on the man would do well to preface the criticism with “I know he’s hurt, but…” and there’s proof all over the ice. During last night’s game, Nurse had a 50-50 puck against Gabriel Landeskog and left it for the Colorado forward, went net front. He couldn’t get there, folks. Ripping a guy who is hurt is bad form. That said, the Oilers have to pull him, or send him to the third pairing. There’s simply zero choice. Also, his play on the third goal has to be better and had nothing to do with speed. Cody Ceci played well but couldn’t cover all of the fly-by’s and miscues.
Duncan Keith is a riverboat gambler who writes cheques his speed can’t cash anymore. The Cogliano goal was an example, but there were many on the night. Evan Bouchard played pretty well (not mistake free, example the first GA) to my eye, picked up an assist, made some nice passes, blocked some shots.
I would dress Kris Russell or Philip Broberg as 7D, Broberg is mentioned because of foot speed.
FORWARDS
Evander Kane had trouble getting the puck out of the zone several times, but also scored a fabulous goal. Two shots, five hits. Connor McDavid was marked well early, but broke out later to finish 1-2-3 on the night. Nathan MacKinnon will get a lot of attention today for his exploits, for me 97 can win that matchup. Leon Draisaitl made some risky plays, and some brilliant ones. I think this line played well enough to win. Zach Hyman played in place of Kane at times, another good night, including a goal, five shots and a takeaway.
Warren Foegele had an assist, several hits (some were big hits) and looked like Carolina Foegele. Ryan McLeod had a great night, scoring a goal and delivering four shots plus a takeaway. Jesse Puljujarvi led the team in Corsi five-on-five, 5-1 scoring chances, 3-0 HDSC’s and played just 7:33, about 90 seconds less than Josh Archibald.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins went 1-1-2 on the night, more successful with Kane than Hyman. He reminds me of Dave Keon, whose offense went away mid-career and then returned. Nuge can shoot again! Kailer Yamamoto made several good plays, grabbed an assist, I think these two need Kane to be effective. I would also consider replacing KY with JP on this line.
Zack Kassian had a breakaway that could have tied it, but didn’t get a great shot away. Two shots, four hits, Woodcroft is playing this line too much. Derek Ryan scored a nifty goal, won eight of ten in the dot and had a takeaway. Josh Archibald played with energy, I think he might come out for a defenseman or possibly a forward with speed and a little better handle offensively.
Split 97 and 29. Like I said before the first game, one of them needs to get tine away from Makar-Toews. Force Bednar to choose. Spider-Man or Wolverine?
Switch 27 and 25. After Game 1 against the Flames we thought everybody was hurt and maybe this is the same thing but… we saw Darnell do things Darnell does not ordinarily do. Kulak is playing well as is Barrie.
Start Smith. No brainer. His game 2 stats are stellar. Not starting him is a bad bet.
91-97-18
29-93-56
37-71-13
15-10-44
27-5
2-75
25-22
Avs are the first team we’re playing that consistently uses a two man forecheck. Everyone needs to adjust including Smith. Have to out-number down low in our own end with those two guys coming. Forwards need to help out and that starts with tracking back hard when the play goes the other way.
Rags start the 3rd well with Panarin staking them to a 5-2 lead. TBL has just been given a much needed powerplay.
6-2 now.
Perhaps 9 days off is a bit much……
That’s really the only excuse available. They should be getting better as the game goes on though and they’re not.
This is so much slower than our series…
Mika with a not especially difficult one-timer on the PP makes it 6-2.
I’ve been saying for months TBL can be had. Was hoping they’d be there for us. Only Game One I know but the good Lightning wins Game Ones. They don’t piss around.
I heard today on Mike Rupps podcast that everytime a team coming off of a sweep plays a team coming off of a game 7, the game 7 team has never lost the first game.
Summarizing!
After trailing 3-1 late in the second period, Shawinigan stormed back to tie the game in the third. They went ahead with 48 seconds left and won 5-3. (The Bourg was held scoreless, but probably cares only about the W.)
So now Shawinigan, having taken out the 1st (Quebec) and 5th (Gatineau) teams by regular season points, advances to the Q final to take on #2 Charlottetown. (The Cats were 7th.) Series begins Saturday on the Island.
BTW, TSN’s site says they’ll broadcast Games 3-5 of the Q final:
https://www.tsn.ca/chl-on-tsn-broadcast-schedule-1.1712768
Side note: Sherbrooke, who was ousted by Charlottetown in the other semi, features a d-man named David Spacek. He was just named the Q’s Defensive Rookie of the Year and is eligible for this year’s draft. Oh, and he is indeed the son of Jaro.
That’s a stunning turn of events… to come back on the heavy favourite like that, down two late in the final game of the series. Wow. Comeback Cats. Bet that was a PvP series which limited Bourg’s scoring. The Remps top line is pretty damn good. Their top six is PDG. Great win.
Not to mention… its always nice to see Patrick Roy lose.
Everytime I see Avs fans reaction to game 1 I think of that Batman scene.
Bane : Oh, you think darkness is your ally. But you merely adopted the dark; I was born in it, moulded by it. I didn’t see the light until I was already a man, by then it was nothing to me but BLINDING!
There can be no fanbase more comfortable with chaos than us by now.
Shawinigan wins 5-3
Russell Morgan
@NHLRussell
·
8m
Anze Kopitar is the winner of the Mark Messier NHL Leadership Award.
We came out loose and got burned quick. We started to play some semblance of system hockey late in the second and most of the third.
Strange how we’ve done that three series in a row?
I am, however, a believer in Woodcroft making the necessary changes to our system and getting everyone on board fur game 2. He’s shown it twice but has also shown he’ll continue to monitor and tweak as the series goes on.
Tomorrow I expect a timely start. Forwards more aware on the defensive side and getting back deeper to help the defence. Defence will have better outlet options and help on the cycle(our nemesis). I think we gotta forecheck hard and get some bodies on their D. Grind them down til their looking over their shoulders and treating the puck like a grenade.
Forwards will do their thing in the ozone and muck it up in front.
Backcheck, forecheck, paycheque.
Basic rocket science.
Mike got his crap game per series out of his system and will be steady. He doesn’t need to win the series, just not lose it. Although Mikko was good I want Mike when it’s a big game. He thrives in the competition.
We’ll look like an entirely different team in game 2.
Again.
Avs are gonna see our “A” game tomorrow from the drop of the puck to the final whistle.
They better bring it.
We’re going to.
The first five minutes I thought we were pretty good. And then the next shift…
I don’t really agree they came out loose.
They started fine, even good, and got the first goal.
They made a few mistakes leading to the tying goal and the Avs got energy and momentum and imposted their will for a while. Edmonton was reeling as the Avs are a good team.
We’ve seen other good teams reel when Edmonton has momentum and is rolling – goes both ways.
The key is the forward support, in the neutral zone and back towards the defensive zone, is it not?
So much good comes from it (and so much bad when it isn’t happening every shift).
It allows the d-men to gap up with more confidence and leads to not getting beat by the speed and also to dump is as opposed to clear zone entires.
Agreed. That was missing for most of the game. Strange since we’ve done that exact thing in game 1 of the first two rounds.
I expect that will be the biggest difference in our approach tomorrow.
A more aware and determined effort by the forwards to help the D.
It can be the series changer if we do it the way we are capable.
I agree. But not just on back pressure, supporting the D also on zone exits.
Both were poor last night and supporting the D and managing the puck are the keys to winning this series. Number of mistakes and blown coverages need to go way down.
I want a shadow for Makar. He’s the most dangerous Av in play. MacKinnon is off the rush
and using his strength, not so much of a creator
If Bednar wants NMK vs CMD Id use McLeod as Tikk
McLeod CND Leo
Kane Nuge Yama
Foegele Ryan JP
Shore Archie (for the hitting)
Kulak Ceci
Nurse Bouch
Keith Barrie
Rusty
I’m not sure if Bro has the reads for this level yet. I believe Rusty Barrie wasn’t bad. I think both Nurse and Bouch may respond to each other against easier comp
If Bednar tries to go against Nuge with NMK flip Kane and McLeod. Highlander is still on Makar and now the super line is on Kadri. Nuge and crew just stay in their way and pester them everywhere
If Yama can’t do it throw Foegele or JP up
You missed Hyman
Just started reading the thread and thought there must be news of a Hyman injury. These are stressful enough times without friendly fire.
The problem with shadowing Makar is that then Toews will kill you with any extra space.
Also you mentioned earlier that the Colorado forwards other than Landeskog are small…and nothing could be further from the truth.
In fact, Landeskog is one of their smaller top 6 forwards.
Rantanen is 6’4” 220 while Nichushkin and Burakovsky are well north of 6 feet and 200.
MacKinnon and Kadri are the smallest but both are built Iike brick outhouses and can play tough if the situation demands it.
It’s not the size of the dog in the fight, it’s the size of the fight in the dog…..
Inserting Rusty or Broberg is a good question.
Russel gives you shot suppression and dependability. That’s pretty valuable. He also comes back and plays 2 games well and then fades.
Broberg gives you speed, good stick, good first pass and some offense. He also brings mistakes and nerves, though many rookies run on adrenaline in these situations and can overperform.
I went with Broberg. First if he wobbles Nurse is still present to take shifts so Broberg will be limited minutes until hes warmed.
Second, with Nurse deteriorating, Broberg may be needed for several games so get him up to speed right away. If he fails, Russel steps in, but If Russel fails, there will be no time to get Broberg up and running.
Most NHL coaches go with the veteran. Woody knows Brobergs abilities, if hes thinking a Nurse replacement for 6-12 games, not sure who gets the nod.
I’d like to bring back up a conversation re: Klef and LTIR that Godot and I were having as it was right before the game.
I remain of the view that trading Klef would NOT create any issues including an issue with Keith.
Klef’s LTIR does not “pay for Keith”.
Over the course of this past season, with Klef on LTIR, the Oilers were able to exceed the cap by, essentially, his $4.1M via LTIR reserves. Of course, Klefbom’s entire $4.1MM was always included in the Oilers’ cap hit.
So, if Klef’s contract was removed, there would be no LTIR reserves but the team’s overall cap hit decreases by $4.1MM.
Its a net zero (albeit with the massive benefit of removing the huge inefficiencies of being in LTIR and over the cap).
I concede that my brain had stopped functioning correctly due to the elation from two playoff series victories. It has been so long the dopamine receptors could not handle the overload.
Lol – cool, fair enough.
…and thank you for the response and, to make sure, i wasn’t trying to “call you out”, this was just about ensuring we had this right.
Anyone that’s ever played the game knows that’s offside. Anyhow why on earth did Nurse pass in that direction he could see I believe Kane go down. Nurse had lots of time to pass the puck to his defence partner. Nurse was exposed all night but Woody kept giving him the minutes. Woody needs to up his game either physically are speed wise. Holloway and Broberg both can more than keep up. I don’t care how Woody does it but we need a split if we’re going to win this series.
Responding to jp below: you are correct, the PDO number I was looking at for Keith was across playoff seasons, my mistake. He is in fact second last wrt PDO, ahead of only Foegele.
OP: I don’t think I know best, just better than some people on here. Keith is flawed. Bear got throttled last season over his supposed slow boots, it would be unbecoming and inconsistent to not make the same observation about Keith. If you prefer blatant double standards, go read Spector.
To you both: there is real data from this playoff and the past two seasons indicating Keith is weak at defending. Your prerogative to throw it out, just as it was to support Archi on the third line.
Another clue is that the general consensus is that Kulak should have his minutes elevated. Seems to me, on that basis, that Keith is your 3 LHD.
One thing I did notice – the Avalanche did the best job of any team so far in making Smith’s puckhandling irrelevant.
Telus went down last night so I wasn’t able to watch the second half of the game this morning. And due to the nature of a certain call, I wanted to watch both feeds for stretches. Here are my belated thoughts:
Puck Support and Puck Management
Puck management problems are often created by puck support problems. If you’re not playing as a five man unit, then puck management becomes that much more difficult because the carrier has fewer and riskier options available, that said both of these were awful last night
Back-tracking and checking
These tend to disappear when the Oilers are chasing games. When the other team is creating so much offense, you feel you have to match them and you start to cheat for O. There was no excuse for Pujo’s awful play on the first goal and THAT goal, ie the quick response, set the tone for the whole game and gave the Avs belief they could overcome any in-game adversity. That feeling was only emphasized by the hullabaloo surrounding the 3rd goal. 97 was about as poor in his own end as we’ve ever seen him. I don’t expect that to be repeated.
Avs had their way with the neutral zone, although we were doing a far better job in the second half of the game. Don’t be surprised if Jay comes out with a passive forecheck next game. Avs take a lot of risks with their transitions and activations, and a passive forecheck takes advantage of these gambles.
All of the above said, they weren’t 100% bad at these things, lots of good shifts and good plays, but they weren’t consistently good at them either and they will need to be to get wins.
A lot of the Avs OZone pressure was kept to the outside, but they are okay with that. you can see that strategy is to take some outside chances, but primarily to keep the puck in the zone and keep it moving around fast. This wears lines down. The Avs are doing it so they can take advantage of the defending line at the end of the shift when they’re tired from skating around the outside of the zone for 90 seconds. (We use the exact same tactic, btw). Need your goalie to hold the puck whenever they take one of those outside chances rather than keeping it play. Especially as these guys don’t won us in the FO circle.
I though physicality and physical commitment were strong from most of the team last night, although the usual suspects are still doing the odd flyby: 93, 71,13. They maintained their hitting right to the end of the 3rd, which I think was important. we got to a lot of players last night. Plenty of shot blocks and hits taken to make a play too.
Goaltending
Well what can you say when you’re team is giving away the puck like their Santas Anonymous, allowing tons of zone time and plenty of great looks. This is precisely when you see a goal get by that probably shouldn’t.
I do wonder about Kuemper’s intestinal fortitude. He’s never done it on a big stage. And now we’re supposed to believe an eye injury from a prior series all of a sudden started bothering him after taking a couple of pucks on the mask? I dunno. Maybe. Impact having an effect sounds like a partially detached cornea, and I’d doubt he’d be playing if that was the case.
But they are swapping a 6’5″ goalie for a poorer 6’0″ goalie and that has to be better for us. If the Oil and the playoff pressure can get into their goalies’ heads the way did against the Flames, we will do well.
Going Forward
All-in-all we need to see a far more patient, slower, smarter game from the Oil based on counter-attacking the Avs over-extending on their line rushes. Play tighter as a unit in their own end and for Gord’s sakes, keep a forward high and skate hard on the back check. Breakouts will need to be adjusted, but a lot of that is simply better support from the forwards. Avs are really trying hard to cut it off at our blue line, but if you can get the puck past that checker there’s clean air… see the play from Yams to Nuge to Kane for the goal for an example.
The Call
As far as the disputed call goes… The NHL is the ONLY League where the video review judges are the only people associated with the sport who actually know the rules. The only sport that thinks it isn’t important for the players and coaches to know the rules. The entire Avs bench, the coaches involved, former players and coaches all thought that was offside. The only ones who didn’t were said video review judges. What League can operate like this?
If you don’t like it, get on Twitter and start spreading how insane it is to bet on NHL games when the rules are inscrutable and inconsistently applied. How can you gamble your money when you can’t trust reffing or video review? Get that to trend in the NHL’s face. Things will change.
The 1st GA was not on Puljujarvi. He hauled ass back from the far side deep in the Av’s zone to harass the forward. If he takes a penalty, there is a 25% chance the Av’s score on the powerplay. Not taking a penalty means there is probably a 10% chance the 2-on-1 is a goal against. Keith played it poorly. Up ice in the ozone, Bouchard made a bad pinch or McLeod a bad read, not covering for Bouchard.
The Oilers have a poor D. If the forwards do not track back hard and are too high and soft on the wall in the D-zone, all the D, including Nurse will look bad.
I’d put Russell and Holloway in, and take Archibald and Kassian out. Maybe just Holloway for Archibald in game 2. Russell for Kassian can maybe wait one more game.
I’d run Draisaitl and Yamamoto with McDavid, Kane and Hyman, with Nugent-Hopkins, and Foegele and Puljujarvi with McLeod. Spot Holloway and Ryan with the three lines, or one of the three centres with them.
Bouchard’s pinch was a poor decision but Puljujarvi’s attempt to check looked like something you see at shinny hockey in January.
Pujo knew he was the high forward, responsible for covering the pinch, had a man to cover, and you can see him visibly let up in his skating on the backcheck. You cannot do that in the playoffs.
Is that why he only got 7 min last night?
Only Woody can answer that but I wouldn’t be surprised if it played a role.
One of the “features” of playoffs is that timing can magnify the moment.
He had no shots or attempts himself so his possession numbers were all generated by the rest of the unit. He was 1-1 GF-GA at 5v5 and was full value for the GA. I also saw him pass up a perfect opportunity to take the body and separate from the puck. He had two official hits, one of them half-hearted.
But like last series game one, they all played like kaka, so whatever. Hope they all bounce back, Pujo too. Short memories.So far this playoffs, Mike Smith could teach a course on selective amnesia. Useful skill.
McLeod was the high forward. Puljujarvi was coming back from delivering a hit/forecheck in the far corner behind the net on the right. McLeod skated right by a pinching Bouchard. Puljujarvi was the first forward in the deep forward, and was making his way back.
Yes, McLeod was going the other way looking to receive a pass and JP was coming out of the corner prior to the puck being turned over. Forwards don’t hold static position and they cycle in and out of high spot. At the point of turnover, JP is the highest forward and the only one facing and skating in the right direction.
He recognizes that, sees the Bouchard pinch, it’s right in front of him, so begins to track back hard. Then for some reason he lets up, stops skating for a stride, but then he realizes he’s going to lose his check and starts skating again. But it’s too late.Just that one moment, that one lapse, was all it took.
It was an error of inexperience. Happens. He has to bear down, be better.
Puljujarvi was the first forward in on the play. McLeod was the high forward, and skated right by an already pinching Bouchard.
Always refreshing to read your insight Godot:)
Justin Bourne
@jtbourne
The control/possession point is never addressed….. it simply wasn’t a delayed offside. In fact, I don’t know how you make the case that he didn’t have control. He was fucking stickhandling!
Someone on Twitter made the point that if someone had hit Makar when his stick wasn’t touching the puck, it wouldn’t have been interference. That argues for “possession and control” to me.
It was an inscrutable call. How Woody was supposed to avoid the Delay of Game penalty is beyond me.
All the same, let’s not get salty over the result. We put ourselves in a position in which a bad call could decide the game. If Calgary can man up and live with that outcome (see G5), so can we.
My prediction….the league will make a rule change in the summer regarding offside w.r.t. control, possession etc….that’s when we will know for sure they fucked this one up. Reminds me of a lighter version of Brett Hull’s broken ankle in the crease. This bush league’s rulebook has so much ambiguity it’s embarrassing.
The egregious part to me was that the linesman did not blow it dead. There was no way IN HELL that he could see the puck not touching Makar’s blade, that view came from the camera on the opposite side of the linesman’s sight line.
Please correct me if I am wrong, but the call was the on ice officials alone to make during the review and if that is the case, something other than the application of the letter of the law was happening here.
Does the NHL have a competence issue with their officials or is an ethics issue?
I missed 98% of the game last night. So, I’m glad I can get a fulsome update here the next morning!
I think the Nuge is the key to this series. He needs to outplay his opposition to ensure Oiler’s success. I’m not overly encouraged by the xGF numbers above for both sets of wingers, but the Corsi is somewhat there. I’m not slagging the player by any means, it’s just a fact, in my opinion.
Perhaps moving KY to the top line and putting both Hyman and Kane on his wings would do the trick? I just don’t think you can pull McDavid and Draisaitl apart right now. I think it’s the only way for McDavid to outplay MacKinnon’s line. Need to get the right mix for the Nuge line to be more successful.
Very encouraged by the third line results though. That’s a big win if they can outplay some of the Av’s bottom 6.
Not sure about the D. I did see one sequence where Nurse didn’t chase a puck behind his own net, which resulted in a Grade A chance for Nikushkin (Koski with a massive stop) in the third. He just seemed unable, not necessarily unwilling, to go after that puck. Maybe swapping Nurse for Kulak would do the trick as LT suggested. Or going to 11 and 7.
Again, I didn’t watch the game, so I’m not sure what the match up’s were and my thoughts could be completely off-base. However, I just think that, given Colorado’s depth, Nuge needs to win his match ups for Oilers to succeed.
I think its time for McDavid to set his jaw again.
hes looked strangely human the past 2 games.
If strange humans are scoring 2g, 2a, 4pts including the series winner in overtime, you know some high quality strange humans. 😀
He scored the OT winner in game 5 but wasn’t near the level he had been over the previous few weeks and not even at his “normal level” – yes, he was still great but definitely not “non-human”.
He was a bit “better” offensively last night but, again, not near the level of the last few weeks. That’s OK but he was quite poor in coverage and defensively in general. Not the only one but, when he “set his jaw” the last few times, he was generational in all areas of the game and all zones.
Agreed. There’s more to hockey than points and series winning goals. It takes a lot of hockey to get to a series winning goal, and he absolutely has room for improvement there. We’ve seen it as recently as games 2, 3, and 4 vs. Calgary.
(I mostly just wanted to write “strange humans” twice in one sentence.)
Ever since he went into the boards vs gudbranson.
Also, love the tune but 99% of surgeons disagree with Cat Stevens
They’ll be overruled by the NHL Control Centre.
About last night.
As I shared here last week about John Wooden speaking to one player about a missed shot, Woodcroft is right. The game wasn’t won or lost on that play. There was ample opportunity to win that game, but the boys looked a little tired and a little like they were feeling out just what they had in the form of the Av’s. They didn’t have the advantage of a rabid home crowd and the energy that brings. Woodcroft i s probably going over adjustments as we speak.
One area that needs improvement is commitment to the middle lane on the defensive side of the puck. The whole idea of the 2-2-1 style they play is to drive the puck to the boards. In their defense, guys like Mackinnon are masters of finding open ice. If it doesn’t work in Game 2, then I would suggest even going to a 2-1-2, where centre (F3), is responsible for supporting either the wingers or D as they get a little more aggressive towards the puck carrier. If you can dig up some footage of the Soviet Union with the KLM line, you’ll see a fine example. They were the masters of the 2-1-2 in the neutral zone. You needs fast forwards at F1 and F3 and a cerebral player at F3.
Just me rambling.
I thought the boys played well last night and they certainly didn’t look nervous, nor fold the tent when things got crazy or seemingly out of hand. Coach Woodcroft has these boy believing and has them competing very hard. It’s a breath of fresh air for sure.
Go Oilers go!
4 full days of rest before game last night -if the boys are tired – we are in trouble.
Takes 3-4 days of being at altitude for your body to build the red blood cells it needs to deliver the same volume of oxygen to your body. Oilers could’ve rest for two weeks and still been a little tired that game. The number of days off is irrelevant. The time spent at altitude is.
Adrenaline takes care of that! Excuses are like assholes everybody has one! The NHL officiating is not at the level of what a professional sport should be! They are more along the lines of professional wrestling! Not a good look!
No, adrenaline does not take care of that.
Sure, it may be “an excuse” but it is a real thing that plays a role.
Actually takes several weeks, as increased red blood cell production cranks up to a significant level and to get the same hematocrit as a Coloradan, would take several months. It’s always been thus for Denver teams but the Edmonton isn’t at that much lower elevation. The sea level teams struggle more.
Maybe next year Katz can fund an oxygen-deprived dorm for the lads come playoff time!
1000m, nearly triple, is that not significant?
Honest question, I have no idea but it seems like it would be.
???
We play predominantly in a 2-1-2 structure. We have three different looks but that is by far the most commonly used one.
We might see our 1-2-2 next game.
I’ve never actually heard of a 2-2-1 before your post. One Dman back seems strange, but you’re the coach, so I’ll defer to you.
I think we’re thinking of the same thing with the 2-1-2 structure. 2 forwards – 1 forward – 2 D. I always think in terms of looking left to right from the goal out. If you can, just go on youtube and find Canada Cup 87, game 3 for an example. The Green Unit practically perfected the 2 -1 – 2, but there variation was the both the first two forwards (F1, F2), and the Dmen played very close to the boards and wanted to force you into the middle lane. If I could draw it, I’d put F1 and F2 to the outer edge of the faceoff dots closest to the boards along with the D. F3 or the centre would stand at centre and you could draw a spoked wheel outwards in all directions. It probably helped that most times that was Larionov who to me was one of the smartest players ever to play the game.
It’s a bit unorthodox because most 2-1-2 systems are trying to drive you to either side and overload, but this one wants the play up the middle lane. Maybe the reason being that it makes for a quick counter attack and greatly reduces odd man rushes (in theory).
I like talking about this stuff. I miss coaching.
MacKinnon and the Avs lit up Smith a couple years back when he was a Flame. I’m not sure we can win this series with Smith in net, I have no confidence in that. Hope I’m wrong, but I think Koskinen might be better suited against the Avs. I’m nervous about our tending and Nurse not looking good defensively. However if Kuemper and Burokovsky are hurt for any length of time the tide could turn a bit easier. I still think the Oilers have a decent chance of pulling this series off, but they will need to be much, much better than they were against the Flames. Woody is right, Colorado is a whole different animal. I would say a whole different/dangerous beast.
Lit up = 3.20GAA and .917SV%?
I do believe if either team’s goalies can those goaltending numbers they’re very likely to win the current series.
Didn’t they call Smith the best Flame on the ice when that series was over?
Thought so 🤷
No offence, but Smith was Calgary’s best player that series and it wasn’t even close.
If there is one thing that Broberg has struggled with, its fast and aggressive forechecks. He’s improving and developing in the area but d we think that this is the time for Broberg to play? I would think, if they go with 7D, it would be Kris Russell.
I don’t disagree with Russel, but wouldn’t necessarily categorize Colorados forecheck as overly aggressive. Not like Minnesota or Regular Season Calgary. They are just extremely fast in transition
I see them as a team like Florida, they look for plays and have players and the time with the coach to be good at it
But we saw what happened to the Panthers, by a disciplined team that wouldn’t let them have any fun. Collapse
Colorado is more steeped now and more talented. But if you stay on the right side of them, mess up Makar’s roving, and play the body consistently on at least their smaller skilled D the results will be there
Patience and counter
The Oilers are also a bigger potentially more physical forward group. Landeskog is a beast, but outside of him? Kadri is dirty and smaller.
Woody knows this. It’s all about patience in waiting to win, trusting, and not forcing, because your number one D and your number two F are hurt. You have to accommodate what you have and go out and do it
Every team that goes deep has a unique path each run, even the same team. So many variables, you overcome whatever is in front of you. This is where having elite players makes such a huge difference
The Nurse injury, and subsequent play last night, is a major issue. Woody needs to go back to 11-7 with KRusty. That means one F comes out and for me that is Archie. Given the speed of the AVs I would also be in favour of adding Holloway for Ryan.
Oilers can win this series, they just need to get to work and get a save. GOG
Yup, the primary goal remains the split and there is a real chance they will get it. Even if they don’t get it, while that creates an all but “must win” in game 3, until they lose at home……..
If Smith needs a rest after four full days off, that’s an issue. I don’t think that’s the case. I presume they go back to Smith tomorrow but Woody offered up some controversy in his media avail – it may be “gamesmanship”.
Prospectinale?
The Bourg and the Cataractes find themselves in another elimination game–but now their opposition is too. It’s Game 5 and the winner gets a date with the Islanders of Charlottetown for the QMJHL crown.
Puck drop @ 5 p.m. Worsley time.
Your locations crack me up. Unusual place Worsley.
Thank you for these updates. Because I live way out here in BC, I rarely see any news on the Q.
You’re like the Walter Kronkite of Oilers prospects.
Since I’m using all these northern Alberta locations, perhaps I should be Walter Klondike?
My mother was born in Worsley.
The one n Lancashire. Had no idea there was another one here.
29/97/13
91/93/18
37/71/56
Brass/Ryan/Shore
Bring in the vets with a desire to be involved with better puck IQ, need more puck possession. Resist the urge to dress the green rookie.
It’s most likely a core muscle issue with Nurse imo which effects the legs and the head, I don’t think dressing him in any capacity makes sense, he’s a warrior and trying but the Oilers should be protecting their player in this instance.
One thing I’ve wondered about is how much if any medications for the afflictions, plus the altitude, are making him a little fuzzy headed.
Some thoughts:
I think I go back to the 3 centers model and 11/7
Leon is better at center, better possession, and certainly better d zone coverage. Him and McDavid get mixed up in d zone coverage.
I dress Nurse but bring in Broberg. I choose Broberg for his speed and puck moving over Rusty. Its risky because Rusty will always bring his game, suppress shots, but might have to take some risk to win this series, and go with speed.
Kulak – Ceci
Keith – Bouchard
Broberg / Nurse – Barrie
Hyman – Draisaitl – Yamo
Kane – McDavid – Pooly
Nuge – McLeod – Ryan
Foegele – McDavid – Holloway
Need McLeod’s speed down the middle
Warm up Holloway, bump him where you need some speed
Move Nuge up as needed
Archibald only if hes critical on PK
Breakout was horrible with Avs pinching and 90% successful in keeping the zone. Need to breakout down middle with off side winger coming into middle for support. Return to the flip pass instead of rimming around the boards to get puck behind d men and back off the pinch. They are overconfident on that pinch and their ability to recover.
Is Leon healthy enough to handle the workload of being a center though? That’s the $8.5M question.
He certainly isn’t playing the puck possession game he usually does. Not sure if this prevents him from playing C, but he’s changed his game in the ozone for sure.
You simply cannot attempt to gain possession of the puck in that situation if you’re Colorado and not be called offside. It’s doesn’t matter whether he had possession or not, he attempted to gain possession while an Avalanche player was still offside.. It’s offside.
He wasn’t skating in the direction of the puck without wanting to gain possession, it’s just not possible.
Absolutely crooked.
What happened is they got hung up on whether he touched the puck or not because that’s the rule for dump ins.
Video Rulebook – Delayed Off-Side (puckfeed.com)
They misapplied that criteria to a play that he clearly carried the puck in with possession.
The only defence of the play is that Makar dumped the puck in and didn’t touch the puck until after Nichushkin tagged up
Gazzolatide? mentioned a former linesman commented to someone and said that is called offside on ice 100% of the time because there is no way the linesman can see if he’s touching the puck or not at the speed involved
So the linesman blew the call and mission control decided to allow it. It should have been blown down on the ice
I would like to see the last 100 Offside reviews where a Goal was disallowed ; and see how many times the puck carrier wasn’t touching the puck upon entry – Thus meaning it should be a Good Goal by the new, evolved, wierd ruling
The non call was like someone who wanted to show how smart he was to his Mom. Look Ma I just twisted a rule and got away with it and the Sportsnet Lackey’s backed me up.
Exactly. There is intention and spirit behind rules and legislation.
Usually a judge (as example) will return to the true intention of what is trying to be achieved, not live in technicalities to be exploited.
This call was not in good faith check the linesman recent entries on his phone too see if bet 365 comes up. How can anyone say it didn’t cost them the game when that ridiculous non-call cost them 2 goals.
There’s what they say to the media and then what they say amongst themselves. This is blackboard rally material in the Oilers dressing room. Guaranteed.
Best game recap I’ve read, which I’ve come to take for granted. Agree 100% about Nurse and Keith but would have needed 200 more words to say it.
I wish there was a place online to talk about politics as reasonably, civilly and intelligently as this forum usually does discussing hockey. That’s not intended as an invitation to talk politics, just as an observation that this place could be a positive example for pretty much the entire damn internet.
When asked about what more they need from Jesse, Woody talked about that line being very good and did really good thing and “Jesse when moving his feet is force down low and they did some really good things”.
He played him a total of 7 min. Who is Woody trying to fool?
He spoke to that as well in the media avail – feel free to listen
Will listen and get back to you OP:) Thanks!
His answer was sometimes that’s how the minutes work out……mmmmm…..somehow OP I don’t find his words to be of the confident nature. If you’re JP, and you were downgraded at even strength as well as from the power play….and had your ice time cut by an average of 5 min per game would you not want to reflect on if this is the team for you??
His most common linemates in the playoff remain:
Kane
McDavid
Ceci
Bouchard
Nurse
Nuge
Keith
Hyman
Yet his P/60 is below that of Zack Kassian.
I know, I know, his points and point rates under-value his actual effect but i think Jesse would be the first to admit that he wasn’t doing enough to warrant top six ice.
I agree he should be playing more but I think Jesse has more professional integrity than the think he needs to get away from Woodcroft, and the organization, again.
Like I said before, if the desire from the coach is to use him less than 12-13 min a night, then it’s best for all parties to look for a fresh start asap.
Be prepared for a an off-season trade for a draft pick.
This is taking on a real JOFA/Benson feel.
When asked about injecting speed in to his bottom six (Nugent-Bowman), maybe I’m reading in to it too much, but Woody seemed a bit more “open to it” than previous with the “we have alot of really good players at our disposal that we are comfortable with”.
Has any team gotten to the conference finals playing as many sloppy games as the Oilers? If they brought their A game on a consistent basis, they’d end every series in 5
Two of our three most important players are dealing with significant injury. I’m not sure they can physically play the game they want.
To the verbal out there that Jay W. said Mike Smith was “excellent last night” – that’s not what he said. He was asked about Smith last night and he said “he’s been excellent all playoffs and the team didn’t do much to help him last night”.
He also then offered up that they’ll decide on Smith and Mikko’s status tomorrow without actual prompting (although surely knowing the question was going to come).
Haha, Maybe it’s time to consider getting rid of offsides..
Hypothetically if the hockey didn’t have offsides, how far down the list of changes would inventing offsides be?
Also, I think they got the call right, but similar to the Calgary kick, it isn’t consistent with how they’ve called it in the past. So as long as they start calling it consistently in the future, I’m not too upset with it.
It opens lots of possibilities in terms of gaining the zone!
— I’m a big believer in gettIng rid of off-side. The flow would be much better.
— Power plays would be so much more skill if you didn’t have to reset and everyone circle out. Teams could choose to cherry pick but then harder to defend when other team has possession. You could have different tactics depending on the score. I really don’t see the downside. They got rid of the two line pass rule which was dumb and that’s opened things up.
I think you would get a game that is more similar to box lacrosse.
I think it is a lot easier to maintain possession in box lacrosse, similar to basketball.
Zero neutral zone work, 100% offensive or defensive zone time. Both sports should cut out the middle third of the playing area. Once there is a change in possession you just retreat back to your defensive structure in your zone.
I don’t think hockey would go that far, you’d still some forechecking and probably some man to man play like in 3v3 overtime. But it’d switch back to positional once possession is established in the dangerous areas of the ice.
Maybe I’m wrong and it’d just turn into a boring, low scoring, “possession-is-king” game like soccer. But 3v3 overtime is already all about possession and it certainly isn’t boring or low scoring.
Sure we lost.. Sure we had 2 goals against based on a questionable offside call. There are some very real reasons to be encouraged by last nights game though, at least to my eye.
-We came back from a seemingly insurmountable deficit, yet again showing a lack of quit.
-Neither team played an “A” game but Colorado looked to be a little bit closer to their ceiling than Edmonton. This is absolutely a winnable series. I am much more confident of that than before game 1.
-We didn’t lose as badly as game 1 vs the Flames and look how that played out.
-We are now a team that is strong in its ability to bounce back after a weak outing.
-Our coaching staff is not too afraid/stubborn to change things up on the fly. Woodcroft has already shown an uncanny ability to QUICKLY identify the how and the why of a loss and to make changes to try and correct things.
I was agonizing over the offside call last night, thankfully a new day brings with it a new perspective. The call means exactly nothing this morning, and going into game 2. This season and off season I’ve periodically seen the Oilers play hockey that made me actually wonder if they could be beaten, on nights like those. I haven’t seen anything yet from the Avalanche that has come close to changing my mind in that respect. I fully believe that our best game is better than Colorado’s best game.
I forgot a positive! Ryan McLeod has caught my eye numerous times every game. Not just for his speed but also the level at which he thinks the game. It sometimes actually feels like he is a half step ahead of his linemates.
Given there seems to be discussion on officiating after every game, here is a blurb in the officials left (so who we might see) from Matty:
For zebra enthusiasts: Kelly Sutherland worked his 204th playoff game and Gord Dwyer his 90th as the referee pair in Game 1. Sutherland did Game 6 of the Oilers-L.A. series. Eight refs are still in play: Wes McCauley, Dan O’Rourke, Chris Rooney, Eric Furlatt, Jean Hebert and Frederick L’Ecuyer, along with Sutherland and Dwyer.
Thank god Chris Lee is not on this list.
Josh Manson was 0-4 goals 5×5
Our Trojan Horse…
When Wood/Manse dress 7 D we think okay they will lessen Keith or Nurses minutes and then it ends up being Kulak who gets dinged.
Let’s talk about that offside.
I’m going to take my emotion out of it which is not easy for me to do… Hopefully we can all try to do so.
I’m just trying to gain an understanding of something I don’t. Obviously it seemed like a no-brainer on the first replay.
All of the pundits like Friedman’s two sources and Tim Peele immediately and unequivocally ruled it a good goal ostensibly because Makar didn’t touch the puck after it crossed the blue line (it was a dump in[?]) until Nichushkin cleared the zone.
If that’s the new criteria for a delayed off-side, how can the linesmen tell in real time?
Certainly from the Zapruder film, it looked like he was touching the puck. I’ve seen a few other angles that indicate he wasn’t.
Now, how on earth can linesmen be expected to make that call in real time?
if you’re not in control of the puck but have your stick 2 inches away from it, how does this now impact things like interference calls? I feel like there’s a giant can of worms that’s just opened.
So, when McDavid passes his stick over the top of the puck to either side rapidly, we’re to believe he’s also not in control of the puck?
Maybe it’s because I’m Scottish and grew up watching a lot more football than hockey, but if you think about a dribbling analogy, would you say that if the ball isn’t on Messi’s foot when he’s running with it he’s not in control of the ball? It’s so bizarre to me that this is deemed a dump in/not in Makar’s control for milliseconds.
I get the rule and why it’s deemed good, but the interpretation is going to really screw things up going forward. Like you say, how can a linesman or ref call this in real time and ever hope to get it right?
But it won’t change anything. The league will go back to calling it the way it always has. This possible, technically correct interpretation of the rule will simply be memory holed. Plausible deniability is so much easier when the broadcasters carry water for the league.
Here is the best explanation I’ve seen.
https://scoutingtherefs.com/2022/05/34485/avs-ruled-onside-prior-to-makars-goal-vs-oilers/
Awesome. So this says its a delayed off-side. But your earlier post at 10:18 am from Friedman clearly says it is a tag-up offside, not a delayed off-side. You guys who think its good can’t even agree on what it is! lol
Yeah, I had noticed that too. I’ve never heard of a “tag up” offside before.
From Wikipedia:
Certainly, by this definition, it fits the criteria for a delayed offside.
The tag up is the segue to remedying the delayed offside.
The Wikipedia quote speaks to the having control of the puck.
Now we’re back to rule 83.3.
Sure he didn’t touch the puck, but how can anyone argue that Makar didn’t have possession of the puck?
It was a blown call.
I commented below on the thread about my feelings on it but further I feel like this interpretation gives the NHL plausible deniability on almost any zone entrance. I saw it referred to on Twitter as “Schrodinger’s Possession” with the linesman acting as the quantum influence on observation.
Hrudey said on the panel, that he’d show the video to his guys and then tell them to pull their stick off the puck.
I think it could be gamed: An Oiler is on a deep forecheck in the o-zone, puck gets sent to the neutral zone. McDavid strips a player of the puck and begins attacking the zone. Sees the Oilers player trying to get out, but rather than do one of the patented McDavid blue line walks as he waits, he pushes the puck in, takes his stick off of it, but continues to skate with it for the second or so it takes for the player in the O-zone to come into the neutral zone. McDavid plays the puck and he’s a the top of the circle. Onside?
The fact that some NHL apologists and trolls (see HH below) are trying to establish a video precedence on this interpretation with 4 or 5 calls in 5-6 years doesn’t demonstrate this was the correct call, it demonstrates that there is an edge case here and it should be clarified by the competition committee over the summer.
Yes! this is exactly the play that should be drawn up – Drai would be great poking the puck in then shielding it for a few seconds just above the circle while players tag-up and the D get flummoxed, thinking there’s gonna be a whistle.
Of course, that would require NHL consistency…
This could work but according to the (contorted) logic of the call, McDavid would have to remain onside until the offending player touched up. The puck could cross but not the player.
I hear the MSN saying “don’t moan about the call, the Oilers need to be better”
I call bullsh*t
Actually, despite everything, The Oilers didn’t need to be better. Make the proper call and thats 2 goals off the board for the Avs.
Oilers win
Like I said in the thread last night, these are calls that don’t really seem to benefit from slow motion replay. There are many reasons to dislike offside reviews, the primary one being they are one-way (they can only result in a goal being disallowed, but when the linesman blows the whistle, right or wrong, play ends). I agree that there’s no conceivable way that judgement can be made in real time.
That said, if you look at the recent examples in HH’s link and slapped on the internet elsewhere, they are almost identical (and resulted in similar shock and disbelief). Multiple big boys (Bobby Mac, Dreger) and retired referees immediately chimed in that it was the correct call.
Probably time to think about a rule change. It’s like a slow motion technicality that virtually can’t be called in the regular course of play.
If I wanted to have the ability to be able to influence the outcome of a match, I would make the rules needlessly confusing and ambiguous. That way no matter what I decided on any individual play, it wouldn’t look out of the ordinary, and I would have established precedents to point to no matter what decision I made.
Not saying the NHL is or has done this, just observing that from a fans point of view, a managed match would not be distinguishable from a normal NHL game.
I think the oilers lost on their own merits last night. I’m really impressed with how they fought back and I’m salty about the bad call but for me, focusing too much on the call we didn’t get is kind of a distraction from the save we didn’t get, or the defensive game we didn’t play. Jmo
I still don’t know how one makes the case that Makar didn’t have possession of that puck. He touched it twice prior to entering the zone. He was stickhandling….
If he doesn’t have possession of that puck, there’s a case for McDavid deserving a shit tonne of interference calls every game (even more than we think already).
What I find bizarre is the media coverage of this. It’s just not good. They keep repeating the same thing and not addressing the possession grievance. Woody isn’t an idiot either… he challenged that pretty quickly.
I agree it was a blown call. Funny thing, in real time I was like, “Goddamn it Smith, 9 seconds after we score, 14 seconds before the end of the period, you go whiffing on a muffin from the point? This is why people say mean things about you sometimes!”
Then I saw the freeze-frame and thought, “no, there’s white ice in between the skate and the line and in between the puck and the line, this is as black and white as you can possibly get, hopefully we won’t have to spend tomorrow talking about Smith dropping a turd in his crease.”
In an odd sort of way, the blown call becomes sort of a stroke of luck for Smith – NHL goalies are valued based on their reputation, and it appears that this goal will impact the zebras rep more than the goalie’s. I’m not throwing shade at Smith, I like him plenty and want him to succeed, just observing flaws in how we value goalies.
As I think about it, I want to give him the benefit of the doubt, maybe Nurse screened him partially on the shot and I didn’t see it because I was distracted by the offside controversy?
I can’t really get past “muffin shot from the point”.
Man did I ever enjoy the Foegele-McLeod-Jesse line last night, they played very well. I’m glad that the 5 on 5 numbers shared above prove what I was seeing was real.
If there’s a plus point to take from the game, it was that at least that line are > than the Avs 3rd and 4th lines. I was kind of more nervous about our bottom 6 possibly being caved and that was where the series would be lost, if you keep that McLeod line together (or possibly shift Yamo there instead of Jesse) we should do well.
We need to find a way to expose Jack Johnson as well, that’s another key.
Yet Jesse plays 7 min lol
Seems like the options are there to adjust. C’mon Woody.
Positives….
The Oilers played a terrible game & almost won.
This team can win this series!
11-7 seems like a decent idea given the strengths and needs of this club right now. Plus, it’s great on the road when you aren’t able to dictate the matchups
Nurse playing hurt (or looking like he is) chief among the reasons. Bringing another LD into the fold to limit his minutes a bit seems wise.
I’d like to see Draisaitl with McLeod for a game or two. McLeod has been our best forward in terms of entering the zone for some time, and has some of the best wheels on the team, which I think are both a need for Draisaitl ATM.
One of the reasons I like 11-7 for this team is that we have 3 centers who can log big minutes and a 4th (McLeod) who is showing that he can handle a bigger role. 11-7 allows us to give more ice to all 4 without having a line getting cold on the bench. It also gives us more defensemen to rotate through and cover for injury.
Matchups become harder for opposing coaches to control in their building when they get last change too.
I agree with this.
Would they go back to what McCurdy called the donut lineup? Why not? And if you don’t trust Holloway, playing 11/7 and having him with one of 97 or Drai should alleviate that.
Interesting things I’ve found from game 1:
McDavid (24:15 total TOI [All situations]):
Vs Mackinnon -> 13:37 TOI, 50% CF (19-19) GF/GA: 2-1, SCF%: 52% (11-10), xGF%: 69%
Vs Makar -> 19:01 TOI, 53.4% CF (31-27) GF/GA: 2-3, SCF% 54% (18-16), xGF%: 54%
At 5v5, the results are quite different however. the matchup with MacKinnon is skewed more towards Nate, however it is fairly even. Makar owned the Corsi, Scoring Chances and Goals matchup 5v5 against McDavid, which is not great.
McDavid has to win this matchup or keep it close, but there is some blue sky. He only played 40 seconds against Jack Johnson and 2:40 against Manson. There is virtually 0’s across the board against JJ, but against Manson, McDavid ran:
2:40 TOI, 85% CF (6-1), GF/GA: 1-0, SCF%: 75% (3-1) xGF% 100%.
Clearly Bednar won’t want that matchup, and so it’ll be hard to chase in Colorado, but at home they might be able to find McDavid his clean air.
Darnell Nurse (20:04 Total TOI [All situations]) :
Vs Mackinnon -> 11:22 TOI, 41% CF (13-18), GF/GA: 0-3, SCF% 37.5% (6-10), xGF%: 30%
Vs Makar -> 11:57 TOI, 35% CF (12-22), GF/GA: 0-4, SCF% 30% (6-14) xGF%: 22%
I think that might be the weak link… I am not a Nurse Detractor and think he is a good defenseman. I’d even go on the record and say that I believe his contract is fair value… but it is clear he is hurt with at least one mobility limiting injury and possibly two or more. He is getting exposed against the speedy Avs and he is dragging down not only Ceci, but also McDavid, Draisaitl, Hyman/Kane and whoever else he is on the ice with.
McDavids’ xGF% with Nurse is 29%, and 62% without him. His GF% is 0% (0-2) with Nurse and 75% (3-1) without him.
Its time for Nurse to either get his minutes cut back to very low and situation dependent deployment, or even take a seat. It is time.
Also, Smith had a bad game.. he had an Expected goals against of around 1.97 and finished with 5 goals against. He is a reason we lost, and he needs to be better moving forward. I would consider that Koskinen might be a better stylistic fit against Colorado. If I were Woodcroft, I would start him again, he’s earned it, but he would be on a short leash and I’d make sure Koskinen would be ready to step in after another weak goal or two.
Mike Smith is not the reason they lost, he’s one player. The Oilers were allowing way too much space and freedom infront of him. The inability to recognize immediate danger loss the Oilers the game.
This is a good post. I agree with you in that I like Nurse and don’t mind the contract.
Core injury is no joke. Nurse was nearly beaten a few times against LA/CAL. Now the nearly is a sure thing with Makar and MacKinnon out there.
Interesting point about Koskinen maybe being better against Colorado. To my eye over the past few years I do think Koskinen is the better shot stopped than Smith, but to my eye Smith makes the difference back with his puckhandling. I noticed that Smith wasn’t really able to get his puckhandling game going as much as normal against Colorado, maybe that’s a one off though.
I’d be surprised is Smith doesn’t start. If it doesn’t go well, there should be confidence in Mikko for game 3. Per Rishaug:
Woodcroft wouldn’t commit to which goalie starts game 2 but said he thought Smith was excellent.
Yes, have to give credit to Mikko – I thought he performed very well for coming in.
Also, I think the Avs may be forced to use their back up here.
I think MK is the better bet. Smith’s strength is his puck handling and Colorado were not dumping it in at all. Smart strategy by Bednar but of course he has the horses to rush the zone, too.
That being said, Smith will get the start but a short leash. The avalanche have better snipers and are willing to shoot from a ways out, LA style.
Based on how NHL teams typically deploy goalies, I don’t think Koskinen gets a start until Smith plays two bad games in a row. JMO
Coaching.
We can talk about Archibald playing over 1st rounder Holloway for sure.
In round 1, Kings TV analyst Jarret Stoll went crazy at the Oilers – constant and incessant -rimming around the boards in their own end.
Well, we saw last night Av Dmen actually take these rim arounds – as passes.
Oilers wingers acting as Statues on the point as Avs Dmen bypass them -completely.
I think Makar actually started calling for the pass on the rim around.
It could be execution for sure on the wingers part for sure. But something has to change here.
The Oilers wingers were back in full “Tippett” mode last night. Half-hearted tracking back, too high and soft along the wall in the D-zone.
Friedman on the offside call with video examples.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/offside-or-not-offside-explaining-why-cale-makars-goal-counted/
I understand the arguments he’s making and am unpersuaded. I think the NHL has made a needlessly complicated mess out of the offside rule. I wouldn’t want to play in a league that invented thousand word voodoo rationalizations for obviously incorrect calls.
I think it’s really interesting that Friedman ends that article comparing this to the Coleman goal. When I think “the NHL is making an even-up call for the Coleman goal but they boned it up like always and it arrived two periods too late,” I think, “yeah, that sounds like the NHL.”
I can’t recall which game it was but I recall the Oilers being terrible defensively and Nurse playing arguably his worst game in years.
In fact, I think we had this exact conversation after one game in each of round 1 and 2.
I suggested no major changes, “return to baseline” as Woody says. One change is not to take Nurse out but switch him with Kulak but keep Nurse in. Kulak has played well in tough minutes with Ceci in small samples and Nurse/Barrie with soft minutes should be good.
Nurse has had a good playoff possession number wise but he’s playing with 97 and 29 who have both gone supernova this playoff.
I didn’t like what I saw with his pivots. If I can see that, Bednar sees it too, and so does every Avs forward. I don’t think it’s just MacKinnon that beats him wide right now.
It isn’t even just getting beat 1 v 1. How many controlled zone entries is he going to yield? How many loose pucks is he going to let up on? How much time do you want McDrai spending in their own zone?
Also, Keith can’t turn. How can you have two LHD that can’t turn agains the Avs? Woodcroft can’t shield everyone and Kulak can only play so many minutes. Nurse – Barrie could be disastrous even in soft minutes because Barrie doesn’t have the wheels to cover for Nurse. What if Bednar concedes the MacKinnon matchup and gets Makar out against Nurse? Huge liability right now, IMO.
I really, really think they ought to strongly consider both Russell and Broberg in. Then you can shield Keith a bit. Kulak has game and will be fine up on the top pair.
Oilers defense goal differential this playoffs with McDavid+Draisaitl on the bench:
Barrie 1-4
Bouchard 6-4
Ceci 4-6
Keith 5-4
Kulak 2-3
Nurse 6-6
Must sit Nurse.
Impressive by Nurse, and you just can’t trust Barrie, my goodness.
By the way, I am a fan of Nurse, just saying MacKinnon and Makar are different animals. If he gives more gap that means lots more controlled entries for the Avs.
Nurse/Ceci are playing against the top offensive line of the opposition. Of course there will be more goals against.
In the Calgary home games, Nurse was playing against Gaudreau away from McDavid. Sutter had Backlund on McDavid in Calgary.
Based on the above, shouldn’t an 11/7 be a natural choice? Lower Nurse’s minutes, provide more ability to cover edge cases (Broberg, with speed, may be drawn into unique o and d zone deployments), and as a bonus reduce the amount of TOI the 4th line gets.
I also thought through the first half, Colorado did a decent job with McDavid. This also allows for more frequent use of the double-shift which has been proven useful.
Also, I don’t think Draisaitl looks any better than the Calgary series, so whatever rest he got didn’t likely move the needle. Need to plan on getting McDavid (more) clean air.
Last night’s game really makes me miss a guy like Klefbom. Fate be a cruel lady. Excited for next game. I’ve been loving the chaos.
Bingo!
Evander Kane had trouble getting the puck out of the zone several times
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Kane was god awful in his own end and in the neutral zone last night. His play on Makar in the neutral zone on the off-side goal was embarrassing. Stick wave by a power forward
on 180 pound Makar.