Photo by Steve Lansky
My friend Steve Lansky sent me this photo from Zihuatanejo this morning. It’s the spot Andy Dufresne and Red reunited by the Pacific. Best movie ever made, with life lessons, beautiful dialogue and an endless supply of hope. That’s a good way to start today’s conversation.
I’m old enough to remember several awesome NHL teams who fell short of Stanley. The 1968-1979 New York Rangers made the finals twice, beat the Montreal Canadiens in six games spring 1972. They won the series on April 13 in Montreal. That team earned a Stanley that never came.
They were loaded. They should have won. The Jean Ratelle-Rod Gilbert-Brad Park-Ed Giacomin Rangers fell short, and the late 1970’s edition did as well. In all my time watching hockey, those Rangers teams rank at the very top of a list that includes the Chicago Blackhawks of the same era; the Buffalo Sabres of the mid-1970’s and late 1990’s; the Minnesota North Stars of the early 1980s; the Philadelphia Flyers and Boston Bruins of the 1980’s. This edition of the Edmonton Oilers, the McDavid-Draisaitl era, could join that group of brilliant teams that never touched Stanley.
I think Stan Bowman needs to be ruthless, like Vegas Golden Knights ruthless, in order to win Stanley. I wrote about it today at The Athletic, and do believe that this year’s deadline (and the coming Jack Roslovic long-term deal) should feature Edmonton keeping the powder dry. The way forward is Bowman trading for another Vasily Podkolzin, or elevating one or two of the developing players in Bakersfield.
Whatever may come for this edition of the Oilers, we can see the last chance Texaco ahead. These deadline investments in older players who get a new contract and an NMC just before July 1 is too risky for a team that can’t afford any more mistakes. I know Matt Savoie and Ike Howard are smaller, Quinn Hutson is too. The in-house solutions can do no harm to the future, whereas another expensive veteran costs assets this team can’t afford and probably another no-movement clause in summer. Stay the course. Keep the powder dry.
On the Lowdown today, we’ll have Kevin McCurdy as our feature guest, noon to 2pm on Sports 1440 and You Tube. NHL trades, Leafs in peril (oh no!), NFL, NBA and MLB chatter.
Why the Edmonton Oilers must continue to pivot away from high-priced veterans
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7001832/2026/01/28/edmonton-oilers-salary-cap-veterans-contracts/
“If it takes this deadline to keep the powder dry and reset the roster in a more efficient way, consider it a good investment for the future.”
Hear hear!
Younger. Faster. Cheaper.
And, paradoxically, less impatience to “win NOW!” More patience to win for several seasons. Yes, there is the McD clock ticking, and previous GMs *should* have considered this. But here they are. And here we are, afraid that we’re wasting away in Oilerville.
Someone on this blog reminded us that early this season GM SB said we wouldn’t see what this team is until February or March. I’m curious. Liking what I’m starting to see.
Great points, but I would add a bit more. They do need to get younger and that brings cheaper
Faster always, and that’s downstream from the league beginning to take the king obstruction out of the game 20 years ago. Finish the job and NHL hockey would be played faster, the players will take decades to incrementally get faster
I never liked win now, and when that started is when my opinion about KH set. For any competent manager there is no fixed point because all environments change constantly. There are averages we plan around, then what separates the wheat from the chaff is reacting well to the unknowable
For me Stan isn’t in one camp or the other. I think gets you can’t be too old even without a cap. More so with a cap. It’s not win now or win for more years later. It’s always get the best players you can all of the time, the cap matters (so expensive UFA’s that need term that is mostly risk are bad bets), win now and win later
No one can guarantee a Cup or that any playoff team can’t win one. Take advantage of all opportunities always, be in position for good luck
As to LT’s be ruthless, that’s what the best teams in all sports do. Not be jerks to players, but have a professional view on professional sports. Time is so short for most players, seasons are fragile and hinge on too many variables
Get the job done, fit the ask or play elsewhere to get the giant paycheque ( all NHL pay is huge). A strong manager makes that happen regardless and doesn’t wreck the team
psyche. Hard to do yes, paid to do it, yes
I could agree if the Oilers would have taken the long term approach 5 or six years ago, and we were starting to see some of the fruits of that labour today. But they didn’t and now really are pot committed unless they are willing to trade McDavid and/or Draisaitl in the next two or three years. If not, you really have to go for it every year they are here. Young prospects are years away from taking the reigns right now. In fact, I don’t think we currently have a young potential first line play driver currently in our system. It’s Connor and Leon, or bust. And neither of those guys are getting any younger. If we look at the Penguins as an example, the best they have done since their 2017 cup is making it to the second round the following year. They kept the band together and let them age out. The Oilers seem to be in the process of doing the same thing but haven’t won any cups yet to show for it. If they don’t get it done in the next three seasons, I believe it will only get harder because McDavid and Draisaitl just won’t be able to carry the team like they can now. So I say load up every year until they are out of their prime and let’s see if they can win a couple.
Summarizing!
Lewandowski scored his 10th of the season and added an assist.
Lafreniere had about as good a night as possible without earning soup. He fired a game-high 6 SOG and went 18-for-24 (75.0%) on the dot.
Prospecting takes a break until Freya’s Day.
I like Roslovic but I don’t see the upside in resigning him.
He doesn’t have the look of a Hyman type who will break out in the latter part of his career. His presence probably means one of Howard/Savoie/Hutson are blocked.
Agreed. Find the next Roslovic. Not every player that shows a pulse needs a big extension.
Condors second unit with a great shift.
Jarventie with a great cross-ice pass right on Poulin’s stick who drops it to Jones who wires it home from the top of the circles.
Condors have no business being in this game (Matt Tomkins, so good) but its 1-1 late in the 2nd.
After a number of solid saves on the 5 on 3, a shooting gallery as Ryan Holt called it, the Knight gain a 1-0 lead.
1 second left on the 5 on 3 so they will stay on the PP.
Yes, I believe this is the year.
For McDavid to win gold
(and maybe Drai bronze)
but a Stanley cup seems a bridge too far after 2 long seasons and some frankly more balanced and talented and hungry teams, especially in the Central.
In fact, I think the Oilers are ripe for an upset at the hands of SJS or Ana
Next year is their ‘Capitals in 2018’ year *if* some ruthless re-rostering can be done
I’ll still cheer every bit of the way
Its becoming a theme but Tomkins was the Condors best player in the 1st period – scoreless as the Condors were outshot 15-5.
Given the four d-men out……
Howard turns the puck over at the offensive blue thing to stick handle though defenders. I’m guessing that is not what the org is asking him to do.
Thanks for these updates OP.
Howard probably thinking he’s brought back some McD fairy dust.
Jarventie blocks a shot, hobbles off and down the tunnel.
He’s back.
Leppanen has started skating. Good sign as he’s been out a while and was coming along very well and quickly when he got hurt.
From what I can gather from some “contacts”, I don’t think the Oilers will put in a claim for Philp which would be a bit surprising to me. Not sure why they wouldn’t claim and see if they can put him in Bako (if someone else also claims they can put him right back on waivers).
Akey lost 5-6 teeth, is going to get a bunch of root canals – having trouble eating.
Wow.
BTW, LT, nice Shawshank Redemption reference. One of my Top 5 favorites all-time. The first hour moves awfully slow, but there are ton of compelling plot twists after that. And it’s a rare drama that captures real male friendship without simply trying to portray it in feminine terms. IN an age of declining friendship and loneliness, I hope that every man on this comment board is blessed with friendships like that.
What an odd thing to say out loud.
Ya, very odd. I’m glad there is an expert opinion on what qualifies as a true male friendship on this hockey blog.
I don’t think male and female friendship are exactly the same, or operate on the same terms. And that presupposes that I think there are such things as male and female friendship. There are always exceptions, but social science depends on the premise that individual phenomena are not all radically qualitatively distinct. More broadly, the existence of dictionaries presumes that individual phenomena can be grouped under common classifications that we call “words,” which enable the possibility of reasoned communication between two distinct individuals.
I hope every woman on this comment board is blessed with deep friendships too, but I imagine they would typically look different than the friendship between Andy and Red.
Again, what an odd thing to say out loud. I’m pretty sure the epistemological foundation of words aren’t at issue here.
I’m a bit disappointed, although not surprised, but Tomkins starts today. Don’t get me wrong, he’s earned it but I was hoping that Ungar would start getting a real split of the starts – he’s been lights out as well. They clearly have Tomkins as the 1A in Bako and the call-up if ever needed this season.
Condors a bit more banged up – thankfully Akey isn’t “as bad as it could have been” but he’s out tonight as is Stilman (although he won’t be out long) and, of course, Dineen and still Leppanen.
Carfagna/Brown
Milman/Prokop
Inamoto/Feist
Yikes.
As presumed, Marjala moves up to play between Hutson and Howard – Marlala has really come on, that line should be dynamic. Poulin shifts to center between Jones and Jarventies. Hamblin centers Griffith and D’Amato.
Artemi Panarin being held out of tonight’s game for “cap reasons”
Suspiciously sounds like the something is afoot.
Frank Seravalli
@frank_seravalli
Artemi Panarin is out of tonight’s lineup for asset protection purposes – and he’s not expected to play in any of the Rangers’ games before the Olympics, playing it safe until a trade materializes.
If Robert Thomas is truely available I would move the farm for him.
This would be a Vegas type move. Time to get creative and ruthless, Stan.
The Oilers do NOT have the assets to get Robert Thomas.
…or at least the ones they do all have NMCs.
Except for Bouch, and despite his flaws, I sure wouldn’t trade him for Robert Thomas.
I don’t think this team is good enough to beat Vegas, Colorado or Dallas, let alone Tampa or Carolina. Their defense is worse than last year’s cup finalists and they don’t have the depth at forward. And what we’d have to give up to get a top 4 D, top 6 forward and a 3rd line center would be an overpay the club can’t afford.
A four year deal for Roslovic is fine so long as they pay him for what he has always been, an inconsistent middle six forward And do not give him an NMC!
how about lets not worry about the games until we can play them.
colorado is on a shooting percentage heater, as was dallas to start the yr.
who knows what happens in round 1 and 2 of the playoffs, what if colorado/dallas destroy one another and multiple players on the winning team are battleworn and fighting injury.
vegas is really not the power house you think they are if you look under the hood.
Colorado is NOT on a shooting percentage heater.
While MacKinnon is higher than career average, his is actually 113th in the league.
At a shade over 16%, there are several Oilers in the same territory or higher.
Hyman – 18.8 – career average 13.9
Roslovic – 16.1 – career average – 12.7
Nugent-Hopkins – 16.0 – career average – 12.1
Bouchard – 9.8 – career average – 6.8
Lazar – 15.0 – career average – 8.1
Podkholzin – 14.6 – career average – 10.2
Brock Nelson is one Colorado player running hot but he’s done it before with the offensively challenged Islanders.
This season – 23.3
Last season in Colorado – 19.4
2021/ 22 in New York – 21.6
Colorado relies on shot volume to succeed and leads the league at 34.9/GP
Worth noting: over the last 3 seasons MacKinnon leads the league with 953 SOG.
McDavid, while shooting more this season, has tallied 662, Hyman 612, Driaisaitl 602.
MacKinnon is running 5.6 ticks higher than career average. 3 ticks higher than his previous career high.
Weird for someone his age.
Does he train with Ekblad in the summer?
I guess he must have been training with Hyman, Nuge, Roslovic, Bouchard and Podkhlozin.
Has it occurred to you that shooting percentages are rising because of the way SOG are now being recorded?
“New, more precise puck and player tracking technology has shifted how shots are recorded, with more attempts being classified as missed shots rather than low-quality shots on goal, which naturally boosts the overall shooting percentage.”
-3 tonight against the powerhouse Senators.
He’s getting tired again…
Yet you continue to use “shooting percentage heaters” when it suits any anti-Oiler narrative.
cookies
You’re right, once Lazars shooting percentage normalizes where are the Oilers going to find offence…
I would never count out Leon-Connor-Bouchard-Hot Goalie.
Did you think the Oilers were good enough to beat Dallas or Vegas last January?
We are always at war with
East AsiaEurasiaWhat happened last season has little bearing on this season.
While you can identify the contenders, roster and coaching changes can affect outcomes in a major way.
And it is not unheard of for a dark horse to make a cup run.
Thread won.
his shtick is such boringly unoriginal slop, AI won’t even touch it
The D is almost literally the same D as last year.
But yeah, we lost a lot of forward depth for cap reasons. I thought we made (mostly) good bets on replacing them, but it hasn’t really worked out, at least not yet. And even if it had, none of the replacements had the kind of sandpaper that Kane/Brown/Perry had.
This isn’t rocket science we have 3 talented kids Savoie-Hutson-Howard that need mentoring from Hyman-Nuge-Leon-Connor. I can see one of them being traded for some sandpaper or too get rid of magpie. What I’m trying to say is play the youngins with the veterans and pump and dump if need be.
easy move is to go center 3 method and give each of the centers a youth.
savoie-mcd.
howard-drat.
hutson-nuge.
Exactly I can see the kids getting less minutes come crucial playoff time. For now K.K needs to see what these kids have before the trade deadline.
If you’re gonna trade first round picks or good prospects it better be for top 6F or top 4 D that you can re-sign that still has good years ahead.
Why is this so hard for Oilers management to comprehend? It’s like you get so focused on a particular player and not the right player type. Tunnel vision. Like if you’re so focused on a player you disregard that he has a high ankle sprain. Who’d do that 😏
Great article. I see no rush in resigning him. He started quite hot, but has been very quiet. He is not a good C man, doesn’t bang , so really is not a great option for playoff hockey 3rd line , especially with 2 tiny guys on his line. So he has to play in that top 6 ( my opinion)
But I would rather see him play playoff hockey before resigning him, especially if they do stick him on the 3rd.
This is the point where the Oilers should have been completing the transition to Broberg Bouchard, because an aging Ekholm can no longer sustain the first pairing ice time for 100 games.
He literally scored a hattrick last game.
What about “sustain” do you not understand?
I’m unsure you understand it. What about his game has given you any indication he can’t sustain?
Literally nothing.
He has sustained a high level of play all year, and was extremely injured last year.
You made it up per usual.
Shoulda, coulda, woulda
They are where they are. Several young D are pushing & will be in a spot to help Ekholm wind down his contract in the coming years. He’s still playing at a high level, even if he has possibly slowed down. Besides, Broberg is injury prone too, & may not have been able to help at a top level all the time anyway.
Deal with what is, not what could have been, is my approach.
At 24 years young Mr Broberg has only played more than 70 games in a season twice.
And never more than 75.
Maybe this year he plays a full season.
Maybe.
Agreed but its time to move on from the Broberg saga. He is not an Oiler anymore.
I am fine with trading Nurse eventually. He is a huge cap inefficiency.
That said, who is going to take on his minutes? He gets thrown to the wolves and plays huge minutes. Would we like better results from a 9 million dollar player? Yes.
Do we think that Walman will fair any better? His numbers w/o McDrai on the ice are not great plus he is always injured.
I think it is easier and will be cheaper to improve the bottom six.
I find the two of them are rather redundant
Tampa did well for years with three studs at LD.
Sure would be nice to have another stud on RD though.
When you move Nurse you acquire a 4-7 million dollar right defense. Lots of options. MacWeegar, Sean Durzi, Braeden Schneider, Dylan Demelo, John Marino, John Klingberg.
Ekholm-Bouchard
Walman-Schneider
Stastney-Emberson
Schneider makes 2.2 so you could then upgrade 3C, 2RW, 3LD
Or aim middle like Klingberg and still get a Coyle type.
Or aim high like Weegar and still find a good 2RW
I love that movie. The Pacific really is as blue as it was in Red’s dreams, and then the flowers and sunrise? Beautiful shot.
I suspect Oiler fans can relate to a few of Red’s messages of hope:
Fear can hold you prisoner, Hope can set you free.
Hope is a dangerous thing, Hope can drive a man insane.
Ekholm is day to day and questionable for Thursday – per coach.
Do they go
Nurse/Bouchard
Walman/Emberson
Stastey/Regula
Walman/Bouchard
Stastney/Emberson
Nurse/Regula
There’re lots of different options. Walman & Bouchard would need to be considered, Nurse & Emberson have been playing together regularly. That leaves Stastney & Regula to do their best. I do think Emberson & Stastney work well together, so maybe the Nurse & Regula combo should be revisited. As you can see I’m not crazy about Nurse & Bouchard .
But who knows?
Walman-Bouchard
Nurse-Regula
Stastney-Emberson
Injury or illness? Any details provided?
Fairly certain its injury.
Guess that means we’ll see him after the Olympic break?
The more I think about it I like the idea of Bobby McMann as an Oiler. If Samanski can play with a couple veteran wingers, for example McMann, Roslovic or Kapanen, that would drastically improve the third line allowing the top two lines to stay as is. The fourth line is certainly playable with Henrique, Frederic, Janmark & Lazar. Looks like a formitable playoff roster to me.
I like it but I can’t see Knoblauch giving a rookie enough minutes to be 3C. And no way he would in playoffs I don’t think. It would end up just being the McDrai show.
I would like to see one or two of McMann, Giroux, Jenner, Coyle personally. Lots of good options this year. Need an RD too.
The only way it would work is if Samanski wins over the coaches trust. Which I think could be highly possible, considering the type of player Samanski is. He has the size and the defensive acumen, as well as some offensive ability, as long as he plays with veteran players for insulation. They may have no other alternative with the cap issues.
I honestly don’t see Savoie or Howard in the mix during the playoffs. I’ve got a feeling Josh Samanski is going to be an interesting story. However I could be completely wrong.
If Oilers claim Noah Philp back we might see a competition for 3c between Josh Samanski & Noah Philp. Wishful thinking possibly? But a great storyline. And how about Curtis Lazar?
Oilers don’t have the funds to reclaim Philp. That ship has sailed.
You jumped on the wrong horse again.
You’re starting to rub off on me.
Because we previously waived him and lost him, we would qualify to send him directly to the AHL.
Only if no other team puts in a claim – if someone after the Oilers in the claim order also puts in a claim, we could not send him to the AHL without waivers.
Forget to switch accounts?
If the Oilers claim Philp, and no-one else does, they can send Philp to the minors.
Also, the Oilers could move their 3G off the roster – funds!
They only have $425,000 in cap space. Yeah they’d have to waive Picks or do some other transaction to make it work, if they really want to.
As I said:
If the Oilers claim Philp, and no-one else does, they can send Philp to the minors.
Also, the Oilers could move their 3G off the roster – funds!
I hope you are right. Would really like to see the coach give Samanski more than 7:30 a night. I did like that in the 3rd period, there was an d-zone face off and coach let him take it (he won it). That the play stayed in the zone for the entire shift was more on them refusing to use the middle of the ice.
Kid looks like he’s got ability and hockey sense. Could be a great story.
can somoene explain why we want philp.
lazar is a GREAT 4c and samanski well and truly ate any lunch that was left for philp at the AHL level.
Ship has sailed on Philp because Samanski developed and Philp was injured, didn’t earn the coach’s trust.
One word . . . depth.
It’s amazing how a big Centre can open up some space for his Wingers. If this Kid can bulk up 15-20 pounds without losing speed and agility Bob’s our Uncle.
I think he would have if not for all the damn penalties.
He got 15 shifts – so many were cut short.
For example, Samanski and Savoie were put out with Drai – 4 seconds in to the shift, Savoie takes the penalty – would have added a full shift with Drai if that didn’t happen.
Ekholm not on the ice for practice – Regula place holding.
Other than that, lines/pairings same as last game.
I’m hoping he’s recovering from celebrating that hat trick. As he said, it may be his last one.
Noah Philp on waivers.
If the Oilers put in a claim, and no-one else does, they get send him to Bako.
He was claimed by CAR on Dec 29th and they’ve had 14 games but he’s only played in two. Jan 4th he was on for 10:48 against the Devils and Jan 6th he was on for 7:38 against the Stars.
He’s sat out with a concussion for the past few weeks and his move to waivers is signalling that he’s finally healthy enough to return to action.
Hope Edmonton claims him. He can play in Bako with a real chip on his shoulder and re-invent himself with a more physical presence. Another change of scenery could be what he needs, or maybe he just disappears. Who knows?
I say bring back the gang Marody-Benson-Lavoie.
I for one would like that very much. More cheap, relatively young bottom six C talent! Plus, he’s a right shot.
Was trying to think of a deal with the Leafs for Mcmann + a dman but their d stinks or doesn’t fit (Mccabe left shot).
Won’t happen but I’d appreciate a silly season where we trade Darnell for Mccabe (heavy elites usage and only slightly older than Nurse) and Mcmann.
Can’t make it work in my head but boy do i like stealing hard working forwards from Toronto.
if you’re going to get Nurse to waive going home to Toronto might be the only way. Too late though, Leafs are sinking and probably heading for a full rebuild. I’d bet Mathews is in San Jose or Anaheim next season.
Matthews to Utah?
Maybe but Mathews controls it and I think he goes to the beach.
Yes just like Tkachuk.
LAK a very strong possibility as Kopitar is retiring.
San Jose and Anaheim are both awash in high end young centres.
Toronto will likely want a first round pick as part of the return and LA has one.
I think they lose if it’s Austins choice between the three cali teams and LA also loses a bidding war between the three.
If Ken Holland is in the bidding, how could Toronto lose?
That assumes San Jose and/or Anaheim are bidding.
There is an excellent chance that they wouldn’t as Matthews is outside their rebuild age range.
It’s too bad LA hasn’t met your lofty expectations. Was hoping for an offseason of sending Darnell to LA for Clarke.
Why would Holland do that you ask? Because what, was he supposed to get him for free?
Why would Darnell? Im sure the beaches of LA will soothe his worries with his buddy Cody.
It’s funny how the daily posts pumping the tires of Kopitar, Byfield, Foegele and Clarke just suddenly stopped.
I like Clarke and Byfield, just not when they play us.
Like LT wants us to ruthlessly acquire vets in their prime, I want to acquire players where other teams did all the work and growing pains for us.
Ask Doug Armstrong about that.
You wonder if they’d take a young D with upside back? Regula +??
We once stole Jason Smith. He was a hell of hard working defenseman from Toronto.
I would love to see the turmoil in Leafland if Matthews was traded.
I would hate to see, literally every day, the talk about McDavid going to Toronto.
I think the slow circle down the toilet ensures McDavid doesn’t go to Toronto.
Does anyone know if it’s possible to trade things like retained salary or buyout money?
While we can’t acquire Kane at reduced cap hit (not saying we should even though I do like him), could they take on the penalty we carry for Jack Campbell’s buyout instead? Or the Ducks trading the money they retained on Fowler for him? Are these things possible?
No, retained salary cannot be traded or transferred once a team has retained it in an NHL trade. The cap hit stays on the original team’s books for the remainder of the contract and cannot be removed, assigned, or sold to another team.
I don’t think there are many that want Evander Kane back but there are some (not necessarily here but across Oiler fandom). I just want to note, for clarity, that the Oilers cannot have Kane on his current contract for anything but the full cap hit (from a year of trading him, so this entire season).
They can’t acquire Kane from the Canucks with retainment and they can’t have a third team acquire Kane with the Canucks retaining and then trade him to Edmonton.
The Oilers cannot have Kane on a retained salary contract this season (well, I guess, technically, if he terminates his contract, signs a new contract and then gets traded with retirement on that but, of course, that’s not happening).
Well, Kane is washed up, so he’s not the solution. And not sure draft picks for aging 3C is an answer either. The answers are using the cheap alternatives already available more fully- Savoie, Howard, Hutson, Samanski and getting the under-performing vets off the roster.
Kane is a great pickup for a team like Dallas if he knows his job is a 3rd line guy ( unless injury on 2nd ) to go out bang hard and score a few, as long as Van is picking up 1/2 his contract.
I’m surprised that doesn’t ever happen. Grizzled vet terminating a contract where it’s pretty much paid for and signing where they want to go at the trade deadline
Kane’s agent has been granted permission to find a team to make a trade and Rick Dhaliwal has reported there are teams with interest.
Just a matter of time I suspect and Vancouver would likely be happy with relieving the 4th round pick they expended to acquire him.
bob mentioned wainwright product (starting to sound like chris cuthburt here) bobby mcmann as a great fit on the oilers. I am beginning to agree.
big, skates very well, hits a reasonable amount,
He would essentially add a second version of what podkolzin does. Comparing their 5v5 stats he is almost identical to podz in gf/60, points/60, slightly less on hits/60. If you can get him here for a 2nd and then extend him at similar $$$ to podz extension it probably makes sense.
he is 29 but doesnt have a ton of miles on the clock as he was a late bloomer.
Would easily fit under the cap too as he only makes 1.3 mil.
i was intrigued by nic roy too but it seems he is essentially adam henrique with a shooting% and is riding the PDO pony.
Yes to mcmann big fast and as you state not too many miles on him.
I was thinking the same thing. I was wondering if he can play center?
Also if Braden Schnieder is available he would be a tremendous fit.
Good article at the Athletic LT.
Players gave every right to negotiate a NMC. Team has every right to pull whatever levers they can if the player can’t hold up their end of the bargain. The bargain made with each player was probably;
None of these guys have held up their part of the bargain so apply whatever pressure you need to up to and include scratching them.
Maybe a. Side effect is that they improve.
Ruthless Vegas style management.
I don’t see any need to rush on a Jack Roslovic extension – in particular if it’s for 3-4 years at near $4MM AAV.
I don’t see the “risk” of his being more expensive come June and, for me, that’s a deal that I am only comfortable with after Roslovic having at least a “solid playoff season”.
I like Jack and he is skilled but there wasn’t a line up of teams looking to sign him. I agree no rush to sign him especially to a longer term contract. Have we not learned our lesson on aging FA’s????
Yeah he doesn’t seem like a player you need to lock up for 4 years at all especially at 4M. He has also gone pretty cold. 2 points in his last 10 games.
This is a player you have to keep hungry. I think we regret this contract when we sign it
I wonder if there’s a trade to be made with Toronto involving Nurse + a pick for Jake McCabe and Bobby McMann. All the D in Leafland have struggled but OEL and McCabe have been the best of the bunch. I honestly don’t know if Nurse would waive his NMC to go anywhere else other than T.O.
McCabe shows up really well by the analytics and plays tough minutes. He is a left shot though so unless they want to take Nurse…
I was watching Steve Dangle yesterday after their loss to BUF and he wants them to at least do a reset. I don’t know what Treliving is going to do but Nurse would fit Berube’s mold of rough and tough players.
My feeling is that the Leafs are one year behind the Canucks in their trajectories. Vancouver has finally accepted that they are doing at least a one year tank and they’re listening to offers on pretty much every remaining player on the roster. If the Leafs can’t figure out a way to stabilize their play to get into the playoffs, Berube will be gone in June and Treliving will be on the hot seat to make desperation trades and signings.
Treliving is a Chiarelli level GM. There is no hope in TO as long as he is around
Haa, what could you possibly get for Nurse in the summer of 2027 besides more assets out?
If you look at signings this past offseason, Nurse’s current value is probably in the $7-8M range similar to guys like Gavrikov ($7M), Pionk ($7M), Skjei ($7M), Theodore ($7.4M) and Provorov ($8.5M).
Looking 2 years forward with a cap increase in the range of 20%, and the summer Nurse loses his full NMC similar players will be signing for between $8.25M and $10M. I think Nurse is movable at that point, and even $1M in retention could net a decent return. Chicago retained Seth Jones down to $7M (the going rate for free agent defensemen) and received a 1st + Knight. Nurse has less value than Jones but he’s not far off.
The problem with that strategy is age.
Nurse will be 34 when his NMC ends.
Seth Jones was moved when he was 30.
As the league gets younger, the value of aged players will decline although the rising cap should mask some of that.
Wring agin, look it up tro!!
typo s/b wrong
Nurse will be 32 in the summer of 2027, and he’ll have just 3 years left on his contract. Jones was 30 with 5.5 years left on his deal.
I’d happily retain a large chunk of the contract to get it done. Nurse at around 6 to 6.5mil is a reasonable hit.
A brief conversation…
Brantford Boy: How Can You Be So Obtuse?
LT: Salvation Lies Within.
Brantford Boy: Fear can hold you prisoner.
LT: Hope can set you free.
I remember those 1970’s Rangers well (my brother was a huge fan so I had to root for the Islanders to keep the internal fights going).
They beat the Habs in 72 and 74 (both times in 6 games) and he was convinced each time that was the year. Walt Tkachuk but a ribbon on it though when they lost in 74 to the Flyers (we just couldn’t win the big one). They got closer in 79 when they beat the Isles to get to the Final, but couldn’t break thru the big 3 (Savard, Lapointe, Robinson).
The Oilers got so close the last 2 years and KK deserves full props. In 2024, maybe it was the stage and not being ready but they nearly pulled off THE COMEBACK. Last year, losing Hyman meant the coach didn’t know who to trust – and when it counts, they become a one line team that’s easier to defend.
This year I’m not sure. The coach really only trusts 2 lines and has not succeeded (won’t say failed) to find roles for anyone outside the top 6. If you listen to Brown and Strudwick on the GYB podcast from yesterday (ok, I waited 12 hours not 24), I think they’ve put their finger on the issues. Maybe it will change after the deadline, but right now it feels like KK has gone full Tippett and the team is just not firing on all cylinders.
Honestly I think they just need a good 3C that Knoblauch will actually trust and play. Staple him to Roslovic maybe. Then commit to some pairs and stick with them. Easier said than done though haha.
Or do they have the 3C on the roster already (93)?
There are so many little things with this roster that just ladder up to the performance this year and it’s not just injuries or travel.
The regular season should be used for some experimenting. You try things in order to see how players will respond. But it seems the only “experiment” the coach does now is how many more minutes 97-29-93-18 can play.
Example – and I said this last year. When 97-29-93-18 (or some combination) draw a penalty. Would it really hurt to start the 2nd PP to give them a shot (maybe score a goal?) and give your top guys who just played that shift a break? I’m 99% sure that the PP% for the #1 unit goes down when the stay on the ice after drawing a penalty because they’re not fresh.
After their cup win and Kadri’s departure, the Avalanche were bereft of centre depth and somewhat hamstrung by their cap situation.
They were forced to run Casey Middlestat at 2C but when it became obvious he was not going to work out they engineered a series of trades that solved that issue and others.
On January 24/25 they traded the expiring contract of Mikko Rantanen to Carolina for Martin Necas and 3C Jack Drury.
Just over a month later, they were able to dispose of Middlestat’s $5.75 million contract for Charlie Coyle for their playoff push.
Next they traded Coyle and his $5.25 million contract to Columbus for a cap dump and prospect Gavin Brindley.
At this point…they have moved out:
Rantanen – $9.25 million
Middlestat – $5.75 million
Coyle – $5.25 million
Total – $20.25 million
And acquired…
Necas – $6.5 million
Drury – $1.75 million
Brindley – $950K
Total – $9.25 million
With the cap savings, Colorado was able to extend Necas at $11.5 million (less than Rantanen at $12 million with similar production) and add 2C Brock Nelson for prospect Callum Ritchie and have now extended Nelson for 3 seasons at $7 million.
They leveraged an expiring contract for a 2C on a very team friendly 3 year contract, a 3C and a productive bottom 6 forward.
While certainly not easy, it was a master class in roster construction. but requires an astute GM and pro scouting department to accomplish.
cookie
LOL. Mitts was traded for Coyle, you can’t count them in the same column.
Think a little harder.
Colorado acquired Coyle with no intention of keeping him or his cap hit.
Thus, with ONE transaction they shed $11 million in cap space.
Had they not made the trade, Middlestat would have remained on their cap for another 3 seasons.
Then you should have included Nelson in the “acquired” column, otherwise you’re double-dipping.
Wait, he should be ruthless like Vegas, or should he keep his powder dry? I’m confused.
Ruthless with inefficient roster players, powder dry on adding more inefficient roster players.
Ah yes, but the grass is always greener on the other side of the fence!
I’m with you. The problem I see comes from defining “efficiency,” to what end, and on what timeline?
What does this mean in a market like Edmonton, or Montreal, where expectations are high and there is still a living memory of dynastic Cup wins? What does it mean in a market like Las Vegas where hockey memory is recent and thin, and playoff runs are (perhaps) valued more for entertainment and profit?
The Holland model seems to me to be similar to the expansion Blues model: acquire veteran talent to make a splash NOW (three SCFs in a row). The Pollock model: use every tool at hand to build a deep farm to drive long term SC success. Maybe this is Zito or McKrimmon at work? I don’t know much about GM SB’s history, but he looks more like a longer term guy than Holland. What does efficiency look like for him, vs Holland? Or Gorton, who I’m watching closely in Montreal.
There was a question (below) about how well Oilers are doing (or not doing) viz bottom six and contracts. I had a look at LV, FLA, MON, and EDM and was surprised. This EDM bottom six looks like a very efficient roster, from a youth/skill/cost perspective. Not sure how it compares to the other teams in terms of efficiency in terms of goals, shot suppression.
It’s all in the Athletic article.
Very topical piece. It argues against the Oilers be resigning Roslovic (turning 29 tomorrow) to the rumoured 4×4 deal who is likely to be a 3RW for a decent amount of the term versus letting him walk and plugging in Hutson/Howard/Savoie/Marjala into that spot & possibly signing next year’s “roslovic” for $1.5M as cover
You got to spend that $4M somewhere.
You don’t though. Imagine having $15-20M worth of accrued cap space at the deadline…
That would be great but likely to cause issues icing the best lineup for the playoffs……
I’d rather have $15-20M worth of players for the stretch run and playoffs than a $4.5M Roslovic all season long.
I’m more inclined to start thinking about a Cap budget for each line, pairing, goalie tandem. Worry less about individual player cost (while acknowledging that $3-4M will be lower cost to budget as Cap increases) than line cost.
I still don’t like the Skinner/Kulak trades on skill and experience basis —for this season. But I do like them from a medium-term Cap mgt basis. Plus, Statsney is younger, faster, as well as cheaper. However Jarry/Ingram turns, there are younger, cheaper goalies pushing.
Roslovic may be a budget-friendly player, depending on who else is on his line. Same with Frederic. If he recovers fully (recent game play suggest improvements, to my eye), he may be an important and budget-friendly piece on a third or fourth line that has cheaper youngsters.
“Hockey is a business.” NMC etc are a cost of business when acquiring and retaining older talent. A commentator on LT’s Athletic piece pointed out that several organizations frequently compared (Vegans, Panthers) to the Oilers have similar numbers of NT and NMCs on the roster. That’s why, IMO, GM SBs acquisition of young, cheaper talent is exciting: in the short-medium term he’s perhaps doing better what those clubs have done well (by now I’m probably just parroting LT’s arguments; forgive me).
It seems to me that the part of “hockey is a business” that gets emphasized is the need for ruthless mgt in pursuit of winning. The part that seems to be neglected is, hockey is *entertainment*. Coach and GM are building a winning team. GM also has to keep the team fun to watch.
I follow a couple of clubs besides the Oilers. Canucks (because I live on the easternmost of the Hawaiian Islands and am surrounded by Canucks-loving friends, poor souls), and Habs. I was a fan of the Dryden Habs as a kid. What has brought me back to them is how much fun it is to watch them. Very young. Very quick. Very talented. Hard, hard working. One of these days I’m going to fly out to either Edmonton or Montreal for a game. The deciding factor may be, Which team is the most fun to watch?
Holland GM’d an older, slower talented team to the SCF. Fun to watch, in part because they won lots of games. And, because McDrai are some of he best hockey entertainment going. This year’s team is younger and quicker, in places. The Smurf Line was, aside from McD, the most exciting thing going on. As a fan, I want winning. But as a ticket-buyer, I want entertainment AND winning.
Vegas has offloaded some of those contracts. Sometimes in ways that did not reflect well on the organization. Are the Oilers willing to do the same?
I think this relates to your notion of efficiency. Is the organization focused on results measured in mu.tiple years of playoff runs (profits, entertainment, perhaps a Cup)? Or is the measure “Cup NOW?”
Excellent post
Thank you.
Prospectagogue!
Tonight belongs to the Dubstars.
Lewandowski erased a 10-game (WHL) goalless drought with his 9th of the season last night. In doing so, he not only reclaimed the Blades’ points lead, he set a career-high with 40 points. The Toon Town gang faces a porous Lethbridge defense that has yielded the 2nd most goals in the Dub.
Lafreniere too can reach a career-high in points with his next one. Though the future WMU Bronco has 26 goals on the season, he has only two in his last 11 GP.
Both the Blades and the Blazers are 6th in their respective conferences and are in good playoff position. (The Blades are especially safe, with a 13-point gap between them and 7th-place Moose Jaw.)
Saskatoon (Lewandowski) @ 7 p.m.
Kamloops (Lafreniere) @ 8 p.m.
Both times, as usual, are Millet time.
Hear, hear!
No way we should be signing anyone ahead of time. They should be lining up to play here, and management should never have to roll out the red carpet. This is one of the best teams in the league, and the GM needs to keep that in kind. No NMCs, NTCs or signing bonus laden contracts for anyone not named McDrai.
👆🏻 👍🏻
Yes. But. NMCs and NTCs are part of the cost of doing business in today’s NHL, not just Oiler-specific bad practices.
The impatience of fans and mgt to “win NOW” makes it hard to GM for longer term, in any serious hockey market? How many in Oilerville will accept anything less than a Cup this year? How many will have the patience to watch as this team takes a slower path to (fingers crossed) medium and long term success?
I already hear the knives being sharpened for coach, GM, even the new goalie…
I guess I look at the hard work Zito has done with his bottom 6 & 5/6 D, and think that Edm could do the same. Hold the line on AA, do not give out any trade clauses and make guys prove they want to be there. Right now Roslovic is a 3rd liner & hasn’t been able to consistently put the puck in the net, so I don’t understand why they want to keep him, let alone sign for 4 years.
Kevin McCurdy pointed out on X that waiting until playoff performance has been demonstrated should be a priority with him. I guess that is where I am coming from. We see guys signed early all the time, and only outbidding themselves to get them. Like LT says, be harder edged when it comes to contracts like LV or Fla, bc that shows how valuable it is to be in Edm.
I’m with you. In a (too long) comment (above) I mention something I’m wondering about: Cap budget for lines (or bottom six), respecting that some players may be longer term keys, others less so, so less costly.
I suppose the next thing is for me to do some homework. See how LV and FLA are budgeting their bottom six. While I’m at it, I should look at the Habs. I’m loving what Gorton has done. Is there a budget method there?
Comparison, bottom six salaries and NMC (as per recent game lineups, PuckPedia)
-FLA $15.78M (Marchand NMC)
-LV $16.63M (Hertl Modified NMC; Barbashev Mod. No Trade)
-MONT $24.58M
-EDM $9.44M (Janmark Mod. NT; Frederic NMC)
It’s probably the only chance. I don’t like the longterm outlook unless a few prospects pop.
All they had to do was build on the team they had before the back to back finals. Instead focusing on shiny new toys because finally players would sign in Edmonton. If they had focused on their own they could have spent their assets much more wisely and only had Nurse on a bad deal.
Agreed. But here they are. And here we are, watching it unfold (or, unravel?). This is, I am realizing, part of the entertainment of “hockey is a business.”
Traded for picks AND A PROSPECT
AND A PROSPECT is one of the season’s most valuable currencies. Do any of these players offer use to potential trading partners?
-Alec Regula … doesn’t look like an NHL defenseman, at least not on a playoff calibre roster. He’s still young.
-Roby Jarventie – I’m not sold this guy brings enough offense to play 200 NHL games but he’s big and can shoot.
-Beau Akey – He’s starting to make tracks in his pro career. Skates well and seems to defend okay.
Not saying any of these guys are going to fetch Artemi Panarin as a return, but their inclusion may be instead of a 3rd or 4th round pick, or may be needed to buy down cap.
I agree with your reading of what’s in the cupboard (the DoD teaches me to pick the under on ‘prospect pop’), and I tend to align with LT’s call to action. or inaction. or delayed action. or selective action.
If one could know within only a week or two of a draft or a signing or waiver pickup, whether or not one had just acquired a Yakupov, then the possibilities are endless. You could cash in yet-to-be-disproven value while keeping all the cost-controlled, team-friendly gems for yourself. Absolutely everything becomes value add, or at worst a wash, and Stanley steers ever closer into view.
Nobody’s that good or that lucky. Not twice. So I hope Stan continues as he started by rebuilding the foundation these Oilers require to feed their roster options the next three years. EIGHT years if this city and this team can be blessed with a Crosby-like arc to McDavid’s career. The only way that happens is by spending your bullets wisely and respecting and fostering the pipeline.
And if on top of all that Stan can pull the trigger on a Schaefer for Ekholm type move….
”music.”
Yes!
”The only way that happens is by spending your bullets wisely and respecting and fostering the pipeline.”
The path of the patient fan who isn’t afflicted by the fever to “win NOW”
Howard keeps comming to mind. He still has some intrigue about him similar to Yakupov early on in his NHL career , or of course Schaefer as you mentioned. If Edmonton can send one of Howard, Hutson, or Savoie to the leafs plus a draft pick for Bobby McMann. Why on earth not? Bowman should be ruthless.