The Edmonton Oilers looked like a dominant Pacific Division team last night, same as it ever was. Just after Mattias Ekholm tipped in his first goal, I thought of Red Kelly’s transition from exceptional defenseman to outstanding center 60 years ago. Later, Darnell Nurse scored a Frank Mahovlich goal (big man bearing down on goalie, sending a dart and scoring) and the hills were alive with the sound of music! Last night was a helluva good time for Oilers fans.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN JANUARY
- At home to: Flyers, Preds (Expected 1-0-1) 1-1-0
- On the road to: Jets (Expected 1-0-0) 1-0-0
- At home to: Kings (Expected 1-0-0) 0-0-1
- On the road to: Blackhawks, Preds (Expected 1-1-0) 1-0-1
- At home to: NYI (Expected 0-0-1) 0-1-0
- On the road to: Canucks (Expected 1-0-0) 1-0-0
- At home to: Blues, Devils, Penguins, Caps (Expected 2-1-1) 2-2-0
- At home to: Ducks, Sharks, Wild (Expected 1-1-1) 1-0-0
- Expected Record: 8-3-4, 20 points in 15 games
- Actual Record: 7-4-2, 16 points in 13 games
- Season Record: 27-19-8, 62 points in 54 games
Mattias Ekholm had a career night, just one game after Evan Bouchard did the same. The pairing, for the season, has a 53 percent goal share. An item of interest: away from Bouchard, Ekholm is 12-8, 60 percent. Away from EKholm, Bouchard is 12-7, 63 percent. Makes you think.
- Nuge-McDavid-Hyman 10:30, 5-7 shots, 1-0 goals, 35X, 2-5 HDSC
- Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Kapanen 9:31, 1-4 shots, 1-0 goals, 38X, 0-0 HDSC
- Frederic-Lazar-Janmark 6:19, 5-4 shots, 56X, 1-3 HDSC
- Samanski-Roslovic-Savoie 5:34, 3-4 shors, 1-0 goals, 54X, 3-2 HDSC
Some terrific performances here, although the expected share for the top two lines is lower than one might expect in a 7-4 game. The Oilers were dominant (4-1 goals) at five-on-five, but did surrender 13 HDSC’s, (only six were counted as HDSC against goaltender Tristan Jarry, so the Ducks were missing on some golden chances).
Leon Draisaitl had four assists, Connor McDavid and Zach Hyman went 1-1-2, Nuge and Matt Savoie picked up apples. Among forwards who didn’t post a crooked number in the boxcar columns, there were myriad high-danger chances: Kasperi Kapanen (2) in his return from injury, Josh Samanski (1) had a chance he’s going to be thinking about until he scores his first NHL goal, Jack Roslovic (1) did fine work on the line, Vasily Podkolzin (1) has improved his offensive consistency this season by miles and Trent Frederic (1) is getting more chances lately and one hopes they translate to goals eventually.
- Nurse-Walman 16:42, 7-7 shots, 1-0 shots, 61X , 4-2 HDSC
- Ekholm-Bouchard 14:25, 6-15 shots, 1-1 goals, 36X, 3-7 HDSC
- Stastney-Emberson 11:03, 4-4 shots, 1-0 goals, 24X, 1-2 HDSC
Despite the offensive heroics, only one tandem owned an expected share five-on-five above 50 percent. These men scored five of the seven goals, with Ekholm’s hat trick a night to remember. Only Jake Walman missed out on getting a point, but he and Nurse ran the cleanest slate among the pairings on this night.
He won’t get a ton of praise because of the four goals allowed, but Tristan Jarry stopped 36 of 40 shots for a .900SP on the night. As you know, I value five-on-five save percentage highly, and for the season Jarry’s Edmonton SP (.902) trails only tandem partner Connor Ingram (.910) among the four men who have been guarding Edmonton’s next this year. Stuart Skinner (.892) and Calvin Pickard (.877) are in trail position. Still too small a sample, but the goalie exchange is trending well for the Oilers. Stuart Skinner’s save percentage in Pittsburgh is .919, but the Penguins play a more structured and disciplined game, easier to play there. Jarry and Ingram are an upgrade for Edmonton.
On the Lowdown today, it’s the round table. Never in the history of sports radio have three young people (Declan Krueger, Donovan Paulson and Josh Fenwick) have been allowed two hours weekly to verbally flog an old man trying to keep up. It’s either transcendent radio or a car crash every week! Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube.
Tyson Barrie is an exceptional TV hockey analyst.
Summarizing!
Lewandowski scored his first WHL goal in nearly two months, his 9th of the season.
Jarry’s 5v5 sv% in PIT was .913 which he achieved over 14 games. It’s fluctuated with the Oilers over 9 games (.870, .889, 1.00, .870, 1.00, .857, .706, .923, .964) to average at .902. As LT noted, it is still a small sample size, so we’ll see how it continues to trend.
Of interest related to the Pens vs Oilers 5v5 (per NST):
HDCA/60
HDGA/60
SA/60
xGA-GA
The eye test tells me the Pens defence is more structured and disciplined as LT mentioned, especially compared to the Oilers. However, based on the numbers above, I’m not sure playing for the Pens is easier. I just think they communicate better with their goalies and are more predictable for the goalies compared to the Oilers.
My overall point here is, compared to the Pens, Jarry is now facing more 5v5 HD chances against with the Oilers, is allowing more 5v5 HD goals against/60 with the Oilers and his 5v5 sv% and GA above expected is lower with the Oilers. These may be better compared to what Skinner achieved with the Oilers this season, but what direction will it go for Jarry?
At what point do the Oilers also look at their defensive structure to make it easier on their goalies if they really want to upgrade the position?
Two parts to this. Having the right parts and coaching. As an example – when coach ran 22-28-53, you have 2 defensively challenged players and a rookie who has been good but is learning the ropes. And even before that, when you ran 19 as 3C, you could see that he was slowing down.
The other part is their are many games when anyone beyond 97-29-18-93-92 is getting limited minutes and is not into any flow. KK is going full Tippett with his roster and guys just can’t get into any feel for the game.
Thanks for this. There needs to be a new category for the Oilers. The Ultra HD chance against.
Begins with total lack of awareness of danger once inside the D zone. Once the defender realizes they are beat they offer little desperation to cover for their gaf simply hoping the G bails them out or accepting another minus. There’s no other help coming btw.
And the Fs on D side of pucks? pfft, Thats not their job
Not ideal working conditions for a G.
97 and 29 dictate how the team plays. No sane coach would plan to play like this.
Celebrini with 1G 1A against Vancouver. 14 minutes left in the FIRST period.
Against THIRTY SECOND out of THIRTY TWO Vancouver😤
Does he know about anaheims center depth chart. He might as well pack it in and go home.
No need to tell him.
Macklin Celebrini
Michael Misa
Alex Wennberg
Zack Ostapchuk
3 first round picks and a high second should suffice.
First round picks never miss….oh wait…
Another D hat trick.
Rasmus Dahlin with 3G and 2A as the Buffalo train keeps rolling 7-4 win over the Leafs.
There’s always an abundance of hope in Leafs land, but this win may be the real death knell.
I don’t believe in karma, but surely to those who were too busy telling us that McDrai were gone, the loss of Marner was devastating and not nearly overcome by their stronger than expected goaltending. They should have been more worried about their own team (a lesson another poster here could learn from)
True story, I had Calgary friends tell me July 1 that McDavid was gone, and Makar was going to be coming back to Calgary if Colorado has another first round exit, just in time for the new arena. And I promise, he was not inebriated at the time…
That poster has 31 teams
I can’t imagine having cap space and spending it on soucy and Palat.
Both high end penalty killers.
Both highend garbage
Adding two high end PKer’s for a $5.5 million of cap to the 8th ranked PK is a really stupid way of spending when you’re using up all the LTIR cap room.
Good thing Tsyplakov and Soucy have a combined for 10 points this year to supercharge that offence!
This gives me hope that there’s demand on the market for Magpie and Henrique even at their salaries.
Judging from the comments from yesterday and today’s thread it appears that Nurse is the fanbase’s choice for whipping boy.
Skinner is no longer the issue, everything can now be boiled down to Nurse’s (and his contract) fault.
The predictability is enough to rival an atomic clock. One scapegoat leaves and is replaced by another.
I always have time for Nurse. There is a player there, a D there. I know he’s a vet, but if he is willing to change and learn and has a smart coach who knows how to use him, he can excel in that setting. I truly believe that and I feel that Seth Jones is a good comparable
Was there a time Nurse wasn’t a whipping boy? 24 run he was minus king, that was the peak imo.
Nurse making snow angels instead of using his reach, skating ability, and overall athletic capabilities is what has people in a up roar.
He has all day to make a clear, instead he rings it around the glass for old times sake, then proceeds to try and be a mostly goalie without the pads.
At this point in his career you would hope the game has slowed down for him that he’s able to make a simple puck clear and a pk change instead of an awful goal against
Cut his ice time and reset him.
All the tools and no toolbox … it’s frustrating to watch.
Because of the tools, some people still believe in him … but that would ignore years of evidence which have shown that he is incapable of processing the game quickly enough to play consistently stout defence. He still takes weird paths to retrieve the puck in his own zone, and he all too often stops moving his feet … case in point, last night when he decided to try to wring the puck around the boards on the PK, instead of just taking 2-3 strides into wide open ice and then sending the puck safely out of the zone.
Going down into the starfish or going down on one knee to half heartedly block the puck is the sign of a player who doesn’t know what to do on defence. It’s a move borne out of desperation and panic, and quite frankly doesn’t work (e.g. after Nurse coughed the puck up, he tried his patented goalie maneuver, and the puck deflected off of him and into the net … pucks getting deflected into the net from his weak attempts to block shots happens more frequently to Nurse than any other defensemen on the team).
Real defence involves using your stick and getting it into a passing or shooting lane … case in point, when Ekholm got turned around in the third period, he managed to get back into the play and smartly deflected the shot into the stands. You absolutely never see Ekholm leave his feet or stop skating.
Real defence involves moving your feet and using your body to knock the opposing attacker off the puck … see Lacombe’s check on Janmark in the third period.
Real defence involves making the front of the net an inhospitable place to be like Gator used to do back in the day … not splayed down on the ice, allowing McMichael to get in behind you to have 4 uncontested whacks at the puck, leaving your goalie completely undefended.
Darnell Nurse is not good at defending his own zone … he needs a partner who will tear a strip off of him every time he does something dumb.
Are you still convinced this team won’t make the playoffs?
The GYB fellas were talking about how it’s time to remove 97 from the PK. Not that he’s been bad but his impact is greater at evens and the PP. So i went and check and wow.
Best Pk numbers on the Oil is Nuge. Have to recalibrate what we know about rates but here goes;
McDavid?
What he’s doing on the PK is astonishing…
If we’re chatting PK, Darnell Nurse is ahead of only Jake Walman among Oilers defense in PK TOI/GP. I have to think the coaches aren’t liking him letting Shooters rip from the circles while he lies down anymore than the rest of us do.
If you’re getting beat short side from the circles it’s not the defenseman’s fault.
darnell nurse needs to be taken off the PK. he is genuinely horrific.
every aspect of nurses game is not made for pk. Walman is slightly better.
I think we can all agree that McDavid is a very good penalty killer – of course, he has the smarts, anticipation, agility, skill, etc. to make the reads and plays but he also makes the power play actually concerned about the PK going offensive, which is wild.
At the same time, when we talk about reducing McDavid’s minutes, does that come from ES, the PP or the PK? Despite how great of a killer he is, he’s not going to produce much offence on the PK and, really, his main purpose is to produce offence.
I think PK is a game state where goals against are highly likely. If McDavid is able to make them less likely, then, imo, he should be PKing. I would reduce time at 5v5 and give more ice time to the rest of the roster to find a groove.
I have mentioned it a few times already. Selke looks at BS like faceoff win percentage but he is an elite PK.
A couple of weeks ago, his xGF was 50% and his GF% was 100 (1-0)
Having now completed Game 54 we can say with mathematical imprecision that we are 2/3 the way through the season, or in hockey terms we’re just ending the 2nd period of the campaign.
A few numbers to mark the occasion:
-Connor McDavid is on pace to wrap the year with 50G and 90A. He’s been alright.
-His buddy Leon is on a trajectory for 40G and 75A. He’s been over a 100 pt/82 pace since the 18/19 season.
-Evan Bouchard is on pace for an 85 point season which would be the highest point production from an Oilers blueliner since Paul Coffey’s 138 point campaign in ‘85-‘86.
-The Oilers themselves have accumulated 62 points which translates into ~94 points over 82. They’re going to need to pick up the pace a tick more to gain home ice advantage round 1.
-With 13 goals over the past two games the Oilers have netted 186GF on the season which pro-rated to 282 for the campaign, markedly better than last season’s 259GF
-The flip side are the 175 GA’s so far, which pro-rate to 264 GA’s, much higher than last season’s 236 GA’s / 82.
Usually the Oilers best period is the 3rd period, and usually their best trimester is their final one. They’ll need it to be.
A stick tap to Bruce McCurdy who could always find fascinating inferences from a table of numbers.
this is Great, thank you for sharing
So last year the goal dif was +23.
this year pro rated numbers +18. If our goaltending has improved we should eclipse last year’s differential and beat Florida in the SCF.
Long ways off from the Woody days of 325. I think with our 2 new goaltenders we can open it up again and play Oiler Hockey instead low event baby our goaltender snooze fests.
I suggest, if you’re dividing the season into periods, the first ended with the late Nov shellackings. The second began on Nov 26. The team played consistently bad defensively in the “first period,” w goalies getting blamed for D&F sloppiness. The first half of the “second period” (Nov 26-Dec 25) the team was much tighter defensively and wins and offense came more consistently (all goalies looked good, especially Skinner in his final five games at .943 5v5 – but again, this was a defensively more responsible/consistent team effort, not a change in how goalies played).
The second half of the “second period” (Dec 26-Jan 26) has seen an inconsistent mix of these, with the expected lauding/criticism of goalie performances.
What does the “third period” bring? My hunch: if the team plays anything like the Nov 26-Dec 25 weeks, team will be seen as successful and goalies will be either seen to be doing their job, or largely ignored. If the team plays anything like Oct-Nov 25, team will be excoriated and there will be (again) calls for new goalies.
Hyman and RNH great as well.
Especially a stick tap to Hyman.
Depends on how generous you want to be, but the first 11 games he had 2G 4A, so that’s where I drew the line.
Since then, 19G 10A in 24 games. Thats a 65 goal a season pace and 1.2 points a game over a quarter of a season. Many big and timely goals.
You could also have given him the first 6 games grace (0G 2 A), so over the last 29 games, he has 21G 12A, for a equally incredible 1.14 pts/game and 59-60 goal per season pace.
DSF/HH told us 33 year olds should be slowing down…
That Hyman contract was a solid bet, and it has turned into a gold mine. Incredible player. And can’t be understated that he was one of the first (and only?!!) players to consistently stick with and have success with 97. We are so lucky to have him!
As far as goaltending goes and the absurd swelling discent of typical oiler fan of “grass is always crappier on this side of fence” variety.
It feels a lot different by eye test. Some of the devil in detail ways it seems apparent, at least for me:
Both goalies have higher awareness
-> tracking pucks and also making better desicions on where or where not to be aggressive or PLAY IT
-> not just backing into net. Like the best goalies in the game times the oilers face them i can recall events where the helleybuck/saro/vasilevsky variety are way out cutting off angles. Not just terrified to take away space everytime. That matters to me. Without some level of that threat from a goalie gives players more confidence which equals more time
-> i swear they both are faster making decisioms on whether or not they are even debating whether to play a puck when dumped in. Like hands shoot upmcommunicating to defenceman way more or quicker. This extra second less wasted in defenseman making decision also at least feels like even under the more aggressive forechecking style teams there’s less straight deadly loss of puck posession type chances
-> and yeahjust better faster actions when decide to play it. Even when that results in possibly heing wrong call they still seem to not end up being super easy in control style losses. Like both more battlers with quicker reactions.
While i still think there should be some adjustments made to the actual defensive system they are playing or maybe a sermon on the mount reading of however many commandments required to halt the most egrigious sins they commonly keep repeating that is root cause behind biggest problems.
There surely is an issue worthy of calling the tower in houston. And by eye or by stat the biggest part of it is in high danger metrics. And by eye and stat more so on the defensive end above anything else.
5×5
CF 9th
CA 24th
CF% 16th
GF 11th
GA 30th
HDCF% 15th
HDGF 17th
HDGA 32nd
HDGF% 28th
Before they made goalie swaps i had estimated likely 0.100 ish of skinner’s below average simply due to team defensive play in front of him. But that still leaves him in below average as he is wrong style of goalie for this team regardless (average puck tracking, average lateral movement, average puck handling control/decision making, above average positional, average reactive/athletic).
2023-2024 the team was strongest ever in mcdavid era defensively 5×5 both ends
2024-2025 weaker but inseason additions on back end were huge boost through playoffs and at least some viable options for fielding a competent bottom 6 with decent spare pieces you could sub in.
Money spread pretty thin and the flex they had to spend essentially was wasted (i don’t think henrique completely fell of cliff to some degree he also was pushed by usage and linemates supplied being buried in own end with 2 green rookies or guys getting paid 3+ x what a maybe above replacememt level bottom 6 should cost them)
Clearly they have little choice but to commit all-in again…I am super intrigued and honestky a bit excited to see how/who/what bowman ends up coming up with.
Best i can magically come up with
Klingberg double retained
for henrique (he might waive to play out string in familiar sunny california and maybe make playoffs).
-> 4th and 5th rnd picks for retention
-> 3rd or maybe 2nd to free henrique’s cap hit plus prospect that’s might be playable next year (hutson)
Frees 2 million in cap
Magically somehow pay what to get magniapane shot to moon…next. columbus isn’t exactly an overly desired destination for any vets to sign with…coyle will cost you…
5.25 w/50% 2.625
For magniapane @~27% retained 2.625
Carry off turd eaten next season 0.975
Maybe they have to eat more of that even. But i can see a way if they screw it forward and get magniapane in 2-3 million range next season they could make a deal to a team like CBJ.
But it still goimg to cost you a lot in range of like Howard plus plus for coyle.
Sorry lomg rambling.
Just is it worth it what they likely have to do in order to seriously stand a chance…
I’m nit certain answer is honedtly yes this year.
I love that you bring those stats forward.
The Oilers pre-season were voted to have the best defence core league wide.
They are worst in the league at preventing high danger goals against. There it is. Great team but what is going on? This must be solved. I do think its worth calling Houston.
This may be true, but of the stats provided, it doesn’t say anything about the dcore. If there are stats for the 5v5 defensively I’d like to see them.
From the actual stats provided, it’s possible the goalies were terrible at stopping High Danger chances, which they were.
Curlock was following the HDCA and the Oil were cooking for a long stretch. Per NST:
HDCF/60 = 14th
HDCA/60 = 13th
So they limit high danger chances middle of the pack and are 32nd in goals against. Make a save.
This team is as the kids say ‘mid’. Need a classic LT split because the start vs now is a better team than whatever that was at the start.
But there is a difference in how like clean clean shots the opposing teams frequently seem to get off in “kill zone” (straight line between faceoff circles and then angled down to corner of net sort of concept)
Like grade A+ chances vs A or A- variety other way.
Visually inclined pretty certain opposing teams seem to have more open time in space in these shots than oilers seem to.
Trademarking High High Danger Chances before the Hurricanes steal it.
Every time nurse leaves his skates he needs to sit a period. It’s time for some tough love
Except for one thing.
You are assuming he has been asked to stop doing this and it just continues, thus time for “tough love” Makes sense if the undesirable play continues uncorrected.
What if he has not been asked to correct this? He has been asked or encouraged to do so? Or worse, nobody says anything.
Every time Nurse leaves his skates an angel loses his wings.
hes either doing snow angels or catholic choir boy pose.
I did find some irony in watching the Anaheim D man last body pulling a snow angel Nurse as Nurse exploited it for his goal. Lol
I hate autocorrect. Lol
I agree with the hint that if Bouchard and Ehholm can play at a 60% goal share when playing with different partners, that raises the question.
To become a better all around defensive core, what does this do:
Bouchard – Nurse
Ekholm – Walman
Statsney – Emberson
Regula
Do they have time or patience to try it out?
3 of the top 4 on their off hand?
With Nurse’s current on bended knee routine, he shouldn’t be above 3rd pairing duties let alone 1st pairing imo.
Sort out handedness however.
So you are suggesting Bouchard – Walman
Ekholm – Emberson?
to be clear, my question mark is not intended as a …what??? Im just chatting.
Not disagreeing at all but Nurse/Bouch would scare the heck out of me!
You really have to sit and think on that one. I had Bouchard with Walman but came around to:
Nurse can defend but has trouble breaking out, Bouchard excels at moving the puck
Nurse is fast, can cover for mistakes
With Bouch as designated offence, Nurse, just sit back, cover, be steady
Can Nurse/Bouchard still produce offence? Yes
Can they defend – likely similar to present
Bouchard – Walman – also works, but Walman is actually very good offensively. Put him with Ekholm
Remember, the thinking here is not what pairing is better than Bouchard – Ekholm, the exercise is can they be broken up, or re-arranged to make a stronger top 4 defence as opposed to large gap between 1-2 and 3-4. The exercise is driven by LT’s identification or goal share when Bouchard and Ekholm are split.
Nurse-Bouchard have a very good track record. Over the past 3 years they’re 20-13 goals (60.61 GF%), 61.48 xGF% and 63.12 HDCF%.
Smaller sample size than Ekholm-Bouchard, but (slightly) better results.
No Bouchard on Team Canada is criminal.
Bouchard drives play at an incredible rate.
He is also an absolute gamer when it counts. In the finals both years the Oilers had positive goal shares with Bouchard on and brutal goal shares with him off. He is a winner.
Love it.
It would be so much fun watching him in the Olympics – there have been so many times in the playoffs with like 2 minutes left and we need a goal and it just seems inevitable with him out there.
He will be 1st on the list of call ups Im pretty sure. Craig Button was saying emphatically yesterday Bouch should be there over Parayko.
Makar would be on the ice in those situations.
True but they can have more than one guy that excels in those situations. If you’re down by a goal with 4 minutes left you just alternate between them.
Josh Morrissey enters the chat.
Assuming these 4 minutes are being played at evens..he has 30 EVP while Bouchard has 35 but in 3 more games played and on a better team.
Morrissey is also more reliable defensively.
If it’s on a PP, it’s likely Bouchard does not see the ice.
Makar often play the entire 2 minutes for Colorado.
Putting Colton Parayko on the ice in any scenario ahead of Bouchard is a fireable offense.
Cooper and Armstrong chose to reward their teammates and grind some axes.
That is there choice and hopefully it doesn’t cost a gold medal.
Broberg earned both his own and Parayko’s Olympic spot. The stats with Broberg indicate that Parayko is still an elite shutdown D. Fowler has been having a poor season. Parayko would not have had the stats if he had had to play with Fowler this year.
Or maybe the Swedish coach has an axe to grind with Ekholm and thought Broberg would be the best sand kick in the face?
The love for this guy is so goofily out of line that it’s hard to fathom.
I don’t think there’s an argument at all that Morrissey is better than Bouch offensively at evens or on the PP.
Defensemen are also required to play defense.
Bouchard’s brain farts are widely known.
In a short tournament, against elite competition, they can be decisive.
If only there was some kind of tournamemt that could be used as a comparison so we could see how Bouchard would perform in it? Hmm.. ideally it would be good if this hypothetical tournament happened yearly, and was for some kind of prize he and others would be motivated to play for.. golly.. if only such a thing existed, it would settle this dispute…
So are yours. And yet you keep coming back and acting like you know wtf you are talking about…
Is there any object argument for Makar on the PP over Bouchard – Makar plays 2 minutes of a bad PP with high end players……
Yes there is.
Bouchard has 20 PPP.
Makar has 19 with 4 games in hand.
Makar is also much better at 5V5.
GF%
Makar – 67.9% +30
Bouchard – 54.9% +11
No brainer.
What in the world does the 2nd half of that post have to do with the PP?
You want to cite games in hand but then completely ignore how much more time Colorado spends on the PP. Bouchard P/60 is a full point higher than Makars. Not to mention over half of Makar’s 19 points are 2nd assists whereas Bouchard has 13 primary points in his 20.
I remember Buttons laughing in Oiler fans faces and calling Bouchard a bust.
Haha I at least respect him be or speaking his mind even if he’s wrong. Not many national hockey people that will say “x player shouldn’t be on the team”
Friedman thinks he’s pulled ahead of Shaefer as the 1st injury replacement (with Stauff)
Good. Schaefer is amazing but Bouchard’s performance in big games should be valued highly
He got hot at the wrong time. Some tough decisions had to be made everyone was well aware of what playoff Bouchard brought to the table but his slow start cooked his goose..
Or Armstrong is a bit of a joke of a GM?
judging by his teams place in the standings that looks
more likely than not.
Oilers should be much better than the Ducks. I think they still are….when they turn it on. But full turbo mode is very tiring, they still need to develop the support to keep top 1/3 of their roster running hot.
Ducks looked good. This is because they are at a balancing point. Youth is skilled , fast and contributing. Veteran players are still smart and capitalizing. Balance. Unfortunately for them, each step forward with the youth will be countered by one step backwards by veterans. Trouba, Killorn, Krieder, Granlund Gudas ect are on the decline, some faster than others of course.
Still, they have a lot of talent in a tight age cluster, they will be tough. Im not they reach superpower status.
Oilers need to and Im sure will keep digging to find talent. After last few free agents signed and found to be lacking; they are due another Hyman. And turn their own youth into valuable players!
Some will dismiss the value of the win last night as a team the Oilers should beat while shorthanded and I get that. At the same time, that shorthanded lineup had won 7 in a row including wins over the Avs and Stars.
No win in this league should be fully discounted.
Forget about the not having some of their roster, Oilers should still be better that the ducks full stop. Top end is so powerful on the Oilers and despite Ducks rising talent, Oilers should still be better, particularly if the Oilers can improve their depth. (which they should be able to do but it remains the hardest job for this org)
We know that regardless of roster, any team can still beat another in todays NHL. So I dont discount wins.
I use wins and losses to evaluate if the cumulative parts and play of one particular team can win a 7 game series against another.
Not saying I disagree with you, but let’s be clear that this works both ways. If this is the philosophy then no more “guaranteed loss” talk around here. No more defending Oiler losses with “2nd half of back to back” and “3 in 4”….
and that’s fair but, at the same time, when the Oilers lose that “scheduled loss”, there is the half that discount the scheduling and say contenders don’t lose these games, etc., etc. – right?
Of course any team, shorthanded or not, will not be at peak performance on the 3 game in 4…there are plenty of stats to show that.
Anaheim has been very streaky as you pointed out but having 3 top 6 forwards out of the lineup will catch up to almost any team.
Even with that said, the own goal that went in off a defender’s skate and the clearly accidental 4 minute high sticking penalty were clear turning points and may have been deciding factors in the game.
But all teams suffer misfortune of various sorts so excuses can’t be made in losing a game where the losers outshot the winners 41-32.
The irony here is that per NST
5 on 5 the expected goals were quite discrepant from the 4-1 tally (no score effects included)
Yet PP was expected ~ 1-1, but was quite discrepant from the 1-3 result.
In all game states, NST had Edmonton slightly ahead in the end (not sure how EN factor into that)
Point being is that it was not pure domination by either side.
Ideally you would like both ES and special teams going simultaneously, but if you can win a game with one or the other, you take it and move on.
It is moving the goal posts to come on here and complain that the Oilers can’t finish when they outchance and outplay a team 5v5, but then complain when they do manage to bury their chances and win a game because they were out chanced. It’s just straight up hypocritical.
You can still be critical of where this team is at in the standings and how they’ve gotten there (I sure am).
The way they win has become more important than actual winning for some. Helps drive a narrative. Getting 48% of the chances and getting 75% of the goals gives an idea they got a bit lucky.
I wonder if Samanski’s shot with Lacombe’s goalline play counted as a high danger shot. The goalie didn’t have to make a save. Should be a chance at least.
This is where I find the idea of a high danger scoring chance based on NST, or any analytics, wanting. There is some subjectivity to the game.
If that Samanski chance is not a Grade A chance, what is? Yet, who gets credit for nullifying the chance? Does Husso get a “goal saved above expected” because it didn’t go in, despite the fact he had no material influence on saving it?
Not to say it’s not important, but it cannot be the be all end all statistic to read a game.
I would suggest that the Samanski play was both a “high danger chance” and a “high dangers corsi” but NOT a “high danger shot” as, at least per traditional “shots”, a “shot” has to have gone in if not for the goalie.
I mean no one is talking about how McDavid’s PS was a golden opportunity not accounted for in 5v5 stats…
I was at the game last night and was able to chat with a couple of the players after the game.
Samanski is super humble nice kid. He is legit 6’3 but quite slim. If he can put 5-10 pounds of lower body muscle on through the summer that could give a skating/ battling bump. I find his skating has real room to improve although a good skater already.
Senneke is similar height but thicker also super humble. He doesn’t seem to realize he’s a top end nhl player already.
Gudas is wide!
Yet the vertically challenged keep saying Samanski is only 6’1”
So we can confirm UU brought his tape measure. Samanski really is a good sport.
Trust your eyes over someone pushing a narrative.
Mcdavid is a touch taller than me. Samanski is taller than him.
Also his family was in town so they either had advanced notice or were randomly in Edmonton.
No tape measure.
On the radio they stated that Samanski’s family had some crazy travel day but managed to make it so sounded a bit last minute chaos.
Thanks.
It was confusing because he was originally listed as 6’5. To me he looked slightly taller than Drai – 6’2 or 6’3.
Ya that’s why I posted specifically about his height. Not 6’5. Not 6’1.
You played it safe and took the middle route. If I’m an Oiler analyst the 1st question at Samanski is how tall are you barefoot.
Get a room
Demko is out for the rest of the season.
Man that contract extension was ill advised.
If only they had some warning
At some point they will likely have to put him on career-ending LTIR.
This time it’s hip surgery after both knee and groin injuries which can be chronic.
Pekka Rinne came back from hip surgery to have a strong career but it changed how he played the game. The first few years of his career it was all about making acrobatic stops. The second half of his career he got better at reading plays in front of him and making himself bigger.
You could very well be right that the combo of injuries may be too much for Demko to overcome. I don’t root for the Canucks but hate to see a player’s career cut short by injury.
Not if he doesn’t want to do that. Can’t force any player to not play the game anymore. That’s the risk you take with those contracts
He can’t stay in the line-up. If we had a healthy Demko we would be gunning for number 8 this playoff.
Is this what you were saying at the time?
Don’t think I said anything but I did think it was a huge risk.
Along with the Pettersson and Boeser extensions the Canucks are in a spot of bother with a lot of heavy lifting to fix it.
They may not have gotten McKenna with Demko patrolling the crease. If you going to tank this is a good year to do it.
You literally just said last week that Bouchard has an equivalent contract to EP…
Ugh. Tough one for Canucks and fans.
But this brings up a question I’ve been wondering about for a while: What % of Cap is appropriate for the goalie position?
I don’t subscribe to the “goalies are voodoo” school of (lack of) analysis. But I do subscribe to the following:
-the position is important (but its importance is over-stated; pretty much every goalie in the NHL -and many in the AHL- are “good enough”)
-goalies, like many scorers and defenders, have good and bad stretches
-over time, goalies tend to look like they’re playing “better” or “worse” subject to the defensive “responsibility” (structure, as per LT?) of the team in front of them
-WIN% may be the most interesting goalie stat, over time, and esp “high stakes” (ie playoff games 4-7)
-when elite goalies get hurt the team (& wins) suffer disproportionately to other key players being out
-team construction should err on under-spending on the goalie position.
I look forward to your thoughts.
I was proposing the Oilers could look to trade for Demko and the one year he had left on his contract in the off-season – thinking the Nucks had signed Lankinen to the big contract and were likely ready to move on.
My thinking was to partner him with Skinner and, if he was able to stay somewhat healthy, we had a top 5-7 goalie in the league and, if he got injured, which was reasonably likely, we’d still have Stu and it was only a one year commitment.
The extension this off-season was a WILD move the moment it happened.
— it was a deserved win but also a scheduled win
— by far this season so far team performance can be attributed to relative team body battery
— flip the last 4 nights : and have Oil play 3 in 4 4 flights: this was us for a long chunk early this season. It’s more schedule than “dominate” IMO
— it will mostly even out by end of year but not winning that game would be trouble
— first two night break at home all season between games. A real chance to run the tables before Olympics if they keep their focus
— that might be hard as our key players think about representing their country. But this is 7 games into their “easiest” stretch of 11.
The Ducks schedule is now setting up pretty well.
One more road game against Vancouver then back home for 9 straight.
They’re 15-8-1 at home and should have everyone back in the lineup after the Olympic break.
They don’t play another road game until March 10.
Carlsson was a -10 with just 8 points in the 18 games before a significant injury.
He had been playing injured for an extended time before being put on IR and getting surgery.
Move the goal posts with all your heart.
Don’t forget about their center depth
Presuming Ek/Bouch are locked, Nurse/Walman as the 2nd pairing is the way to go. I know they’ve struggled a bit this year but they were great last year and there is clear separation between the top 4 (with those two in it) and the trio that will get third pairing ice time (although I like Emberson and his quiet but very effective defensive game).
Liked Samanski’s game last night – not a ton of ice time but that is mainly because there were so many minor penalties in the middle of the game. Look forward to seeing more of him in that 3C role.
I think Nuge has struggled 5 on 5 since his 1000th game night – that 3C is really beckoning but we know the coaching staff is very hesitant to do it so, in that regard, go Josh go!
Far from a great defensive game from the Oilers last night but they did outscore 4-1 at 5 on 5 and it was the PK (which had moved up to 10th place from the mid-20s prior to last night) was the issue – that is likely an anomaly, I think.
Mainly because everyone and their dog knew Samanski wasn’t going to see more then 8 minutes, and he didn’t even see that much.
H. Lindholm named injury replacement for Brodin. I’m fairly confident the issues between Ek and the coach at the Four Nations is primary here. Ek has been close to peak Ek for a while now – his goal share and underlying numbers are massive (of course, playing with Bouch hurts).
Gutted for the person (and I fully acknowledge the rest implications for the Oilers).
Hopefully these snubs add to the shoulder chips and translate into playoff performances.
Look at each of Ek, Bouch and Hyman since the rosters were announced – chips fully on shoulders I think!
Yes, each one is very deserving to be there.
MacKinnon’s shooting % still running 5.8 tics north of his career average. Running 3 clear of his career high (like a lot of Avs players…)
McDavid is 1.2 ticks above his career average but below highs in three different season.
Probably catches MacKinnon for goal lead before the game on March 10th.
Might rack up Assists instead though.
Leon is in quite the goal scoring funk on the PP. and after he gets one he’ll probably get six.
Funny to see Bouchard more excited for Ekholm’s hat trick than he was for his own. Class act!
“Never in the history of sports radio have three young people (Declan Krueger, Donovan Paulson and Josh Fenwick) have been allowed two hours weekly to verbally flog an old man trying to keep up.”
One of the week’s highlights for me, for sure. But, it sounds less like the old man getting a flogging than the apprentices being schooled (with a rod, no less) by the master — and loving it!
Keep. It. Up!
I and my two sons will be in Edmonton this weekend for Saturday’s game against the Wild. It’ll be our first Oilers game and first time in Edmonton. Wondering about recommendations for things to do or check out.
Not right close to rogers but the old strathcona farmers market is great (believe it closes at 2pm) and if you are into vintage stuff the antique mall is just down the road. Whyte ave has all sorts of great eats, dadeo, rooster kitchen, yelo’d filipino ice cream, or made by marcus ice cream are fantastic.
I highly recommend checking out the merch store which is always fun, and if you want to stay closer to rogers then campio brewing is just down the way which has great pops for dad and delicious detroit style pizza for dad and the boys!
Within ice district they have bowling lanes at banquet which is right next to the merch store.
My boys are actually 25 and 21. My photo is about 10 years old! I had just bought the McDavid draft year cap (seen in photo).
I really enjoyed the Royal Alberta Museum, if that is something you enjoy. I’m a bit of a museum junkie though.
Outside major attractions, Old Strathcona (Whyte Ave) is where it’s at for random stuff/vibes.
Hope you all have a great and memorable weekend!
Samanski is German for Bjugstad, it’s a shame the coaches couldn’t even play him for 8 minutes.
Good grief.
That’s the issue if a 3C isn’t on the PK and there is a TON of special teams.
Samanski showed well, coach spoke highly of him,
If less than half the game is special teams, he’ll get more ice, presumably.
Imagine watching that game and thinking the Oilers were “Dominant”.
4-1 five-on-five goals IS dominant. Ducks credited with 13 HDSC at five-on-five, just six needed the goalie to make a save.
37% xGF, 43% SCF, 41% HDCF
Dominant!
Score effects!
Score effects!
It was not a repeatable formula for winning.
Not at all. Defensive coverage still a tire fire. Jarry back to earth. Lose the special teams.
Up 3 goals and let them back in easily.
How about some in game adjustments depending on game state? Nope let’s continue to play Globetrotters. GA and HD against have to come down
What do we mean by Jarry down to earth. Many believe he was the best player in the 3rd period and they don’t win without him performance. Moneypuck had the Ducks with 5.5 expected goals and NST at 4.3 – he was better than expected by both.
Looking at LT’s xGF and NaturalStatTrick, can we safely say last night was “mostly goaltending”.
I’d give plenty of credit to the goal scorers. Ekholm and Nurse both had terrific goals, Ekholm two of them.
Ekholm’s third was also a beauty!
Last year this team flubbed many an ENG opportunity (as McD did last night, before making things right). Given how often nets are empty it would make sense for a few minutes of practice, trying to emulate the Ekholm long shot.
Right, but all the stats support “mostly goaltending” and not “dominant win”. So do my eyes (not that it matters).
Oilers got some breathing room last night in a huge 4-pt game. I believe the Oilers will finish 1st or 2nd in the Pacific and will have to play the VGK to advance to the WCF.
Surprisingly the VGK are the LEAST (118 – 1st) penalized team in the league with a respectable 80.5% (10th) on the kill. They are +17 on special teams (PP goals for – PK goals against).
Oilers have taken way more penalties (150 – 14th) than the VGK but crush the PP opportunities they have (31.8% – 1st) and end up at the same +17 as the VGK.
The VGK are +36 in PPO – PKO where the Oilers are only +1!
If the Oilers can tighten it up and reduce the # of penalties they take, then they should be able to get to the WCF again! GOG
Notes for upcoming games
I enjoy watching teams work their PK. It such a test, for every player. Unfortunately, watching the Oilers PK in recent games has become painful as what had been trending in a good ways seems to have fallen apart.
Yes, limit the penalties (& especially the stick infractions in the O-zone). But also: get that PK fixed!
Bettman and the owners don’t want another desert franchise to fail.
Was also amazed to learn that beckett sennecke is actually the second coming of Wayne Glenski!!!!!
Fun game to be at. Really liked the little sample size of Samanski.
Anaheim live and in person are big and fast. 2 HUGE stick outs for them are Lacombe ( keep your head up when he is on the ice) . Very very good young 2 way D. That Sennecke kid is massive, great skater and smart. Hard to move him . He will be a 6.3 1/2 / 215-220 kid in a few and just about unstoppable. I honestly think ( they had 3 A players out last night) they along with San Jose will be fighting for 1st in the Pacific next year.
The Oilers D were offensive juggernauts last night. That game was good old fire wagon hockey ( That’s 2 in a row like that) It is so fun to watch, but I bet the coaches hate it.
San Jose on Thursday could be the exact same .
The PK needs an adjustment. It stunk last night. Roslovic and Savoie took lazy player type penalties and they can’t do that.
Too bad Samanski didn’t get that goal. He looked really good in small sample size.
Fun game to be at. Good win to bump 3 points up on Anaheim.
Anaheim is three years away from being a material threat. Young and flashy yes. But the Oilers steamrolled them for funsies last night. It’ll take a while.
San Jose might need a 4th year depending on if the can find some veteran help after next year.
Whistling past the graveyard.
2 EN goals does not connote a steamrolling.
Anaheim was missing Carlsson, Terry and MacTavish last night.
Their defense is what’s not up to snuff right now.
They recently lost 11/12 with the full forward lineup.
Once they start playing defense the offense will erode. Without a game breaker among them you can enter the mushy middle really really quickly and just stay there. An offensive version of LA might be your outer marker.
And playing their backup goaltender.
Actually, Husso is their third string goaltender.
17 games in the AHL
Mrazek is on IR.
Help could be coming.
2024 first round pick, 6’2″ 205 Stian Solberg is getting his feet wet in San Diego.
He recently had 4 goals and 6 points for Norway in the World Championships.
Wheeler’s Take:
“Solberg was highlighted as a potential option for teams needing size on the backend, with his combination of, “size, skating, defense and blossoming offensive game” making him a strong, competitive draft target.
He is projected as a top-four, two-way, or shutdown defenseman with “high floor” potential due to his safe, physical game, with some upside for more depending on his continued offensive development.”
Ducks were on the second half of a back to back and their 3rd game in 4 nights.
Missing their 1C, 2C, 2RW and 1G.
Quite remarkable that Granlund, their normal 3C, netted a hat trick.
Cutter Gauthier, their scoring leader, was mostly quiet last night but is on pace for a 36 goal season.
Once Leo Carlsson returns from IR after the Olympic break, that top line with Sennecke, Carlsson and Gauthier could do some real damage down the stretch.
Don’t forget to mention the San Jose Sharks!!
Never fear. 🙂
Teenagers don’t worry me. Spark plugs in the early years, ground down by teams keying them in their next early years and finally learning how to win around year 5 or so.
It takes time.
Some teams, like the Canucks, never learn how to do it and are forced to blow up their organization.
Oilers running a .708 pts % against the Pacific. Two shootout losses in there.
Not worried about the Ducks.
I’m old enough to remember when Connor McDavid was a teenager.
Some are touched by greatness.
Lemme know who pots ten 100 point seasons on the Ducks roster and I’ll get excited about them.
Right around the time you were glazing the Minnesota Wild before the glazing of the Sutter Flames part 2.
A great example of your average nhl teenager.
I’m old enough to remember when Gretzky was a teenager!
I’m old enough to remember that Rafferty was a much better player than Bouchard and that Draisaitl was a Colborne clone :)…
It sounds like you had this one circled on the calendar and it didn’t deliver!
He only circles after the fact if it fits his current narrative!
HH (probably): ‘Oh no the team I am currently hyping lost to the Oilers – well here is why this game shouldn’t count’
Didn’t expect a Ducks win but a great game to watch.
Young teams make mistakes in bunches, which the Oil capitalized against. But they were a wagon in the first & third.
The Pacific will be very difficult in a couple of years from now.
Handfuls of mistakes by the Oilers too. Four goals against, but Jarry kept them in this game in the third. Repeatedly. And the anaemic PK… They were lucky to get clear of the third period and pot two ENGs.
Yeah, the Oil played their typical leaky game. An inconsistent night overall.
I’m very curious about what kind of game the Wild inspire in this team. I doubt (fingers crossed 🤞) we see that kind of leakiness. But, as ever, “we wait.”
Samanski probably heard that scoring as a rookie gets you benched, so why bother? Lol
Massive respect to ekholm who is now up to 26 points and +18 whilst player a hair over 20 mins a night. All on a value deal of 4 million.
Also credits to young samanski who hustled, comported himself well, and earned a +2 on the night, all in less than 8 mins!!!! I hope next game has less special teams so we can see him get a few more minutes.
E’s still on the last year of his 6.25M + retention here. Extension starts next year.
Still deep value.
Great Zeppelin reference
It might be a good anthem for these Oilers, an inspirational, waking them up to their potential to roll through a game causing wrack & ruin. With Red Beard leading the charge.
Not sure how much of the 3rd period was score effects or not, but early in the first and for most of the third, the Oilers really stuggled breaking the puck out. It was like the final against Florida all-over again. Rim/send the puck up the board and watch Anaheim jump the winger/pinch hard.
There was one or two exceptions – and that’s when the C (believe it was Draisaitl) would come low and the wing would move in position to support.
That 2nd period was pure joy though. They attacked and it paid off.
The playbook is out on them.
It’s the bedtime story they’ve written for themselves.
This is what I saw too. Score effect had nothing to do with it as it was only 5-3 coming into the 3rd. The Oilers started the game and the 3rd period incredibly sleepy.
Knob spoke after the game about the Ducks system and how their aggressive forecheck with their forwards hard and low on the Oilers d-man will often lead to fast breaks against – he said the Oilers didn’t handle it well in the third period but the coaching staff is aware of what they had trouble with late in the game last night and, going forward, will practice the execution of adjustments.
Prospectisch!
Today’s only participant comes not from the land of the ice and snow, but rather the Land of Chocolate.
David Lewandowski has already matched his point total of 39 from yesteryear. Mind you, he only played in 52 reg season games then. He has played 35 this year.
He averages almost 3 shots/game–an improvement from last season–but has only 8 tallies this year. His SH% has dropped from 13.0 to 7.9.
The chance to reach 40 points (and beyond) arrives when the puck drops @ 7 p.m. Diamond Valley time.
Darnell Nurse scored a Frank Mahovlich goal.
see Nurse could be an awesome forward!