A year after the Oilers traded down and grabbed Xavier Bourgault at No. 22 overall, I remain pleased with the choice. Bourgault enjoyed a strong regular season, scored at an impressive rate as his Shawinigan Cataractes won the QMJHL championship and will compete next week for the Memorial Cup.
THE ATHLETIC!
- Lowetide: What does Oilers’ optimal roster for Jay Woodcroft look like?
- DNB: Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl’s playoffs for the ages: What’s the legacy?
- DNB & Scott Powers: What it means for Blackhawks, Oilers’ cap situations if Duncan Keith retires
- Lowetide: Oilers pro scouts have to get it right in free agency this summer
- DNB: Edmonton Oilers offseason priorities: A 10-step plan for success
- Lowetide: What will Edmonton Oilers do in first round of 2022 NHL Draft?
- Lowetide: Can the ‘Connor McDavid will ask Oilers to be traded?’ group please sit down?
- DNB: Oilers end-of-season takeaways
- Lowetide: Young Oilers players poised for bigger roles after playoff run
- DNB: What Oilers goalie Mike Smith’s unclear future could mean for offseason plans
- DNB: Oilers’ season ends, and critical roster decisions will define what comes next
- Lowetide: In defence of Edmonton Oilers defenceman Darnell Nurse
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Warren Foegele may be victim of cap crunch this summer
- Lowetide: WHL’s 2022 defence crop attractive target for Oilers at NHL Draft
- DNB and Dan Robson: Connor McDavid is the best skater NHL’s skating greats have ever seen
- Lowetide: Why Jordan Dumais could be NHL Draft steal for Edmonton Oilers
OPTIONS
The Oilers have drafted twice with Tyler Wright in charge, three times since Ken Holland arrived from Detroit. Two forwards and a big defenseman in year one. I expect all three of these men will play in the NHL, the question being where they’ll bat in the lineup.
Wright has drafted 12 players, 10 forwards and a pair of defensemen. Broberg and Holloway will play their careers at over 200 pounds, Bourgault is going to look like Jordan Eberle as a mature player.
My guess for this season? A defenseman in the first round, a bigger prospect and possibly a shutdown type if he’s available.
Lamoureaux will be attractive to the Oilers, I have him ranked last in this group. My 125 suggests Bichsel (No. 30), Pickering (No. 37), Hutson (No. 40), Lindgren (No. 51) and then Lamoureaux (No. 68) is the proper order. I think the Oilers could take any of these men with the team’s first pick, but Bichsel and Lamoureaux are the most likely imo. Hutson could land the loudest if he makes the NHL, I don’t see Edmonton pursuing him.
I have it Firkus (No. 12), Dumais (No. 19), McGroarty (No. 31), Schaeffer (No. 32), Gustafsson (No. 80) and Lorenz (No. 88). I think the Oilers, if the go with a forward yet again with the first selection, may go for a bigger one this time. Do not be surprised if Holland deals No. 29 overall for a couple of later picks.
Kuzmenko is an interesting player. He owns a 29-49-78 NHLE off his most recent KHL season and has been a productive regular for the last five seasons. He is 26. I read that his foot speed was just averaged but Red Line Report’s draft editions states “playmaking winger plays a fast-paced game with excellent foot speed and first-step acceleration.” He’s a left wing who shoots right, and would probably play on the right side in Edmonton.
- Zach Hyman-Connor McDavid-Kailer Yamamoto
- Nuge-Leon Draisaitl-Andrei Kuzmenko
- Warren Foegele-Ryan McLeod-Jesse Puljujarvi
- Dylan Holloway-Derek Ryan-Zack Kassian
- Darnell Nurse-Cody Ceci
- Duncan Keith-Evan Bouchard
- Brett Kulak-Philip Broberg
- John Gibson (Stuart Skinner)
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
A big show today, 10-2 on TSN 1260. Guests include Chris Johnston at 10:20, James Duthie at 12:20, Rob Vanstone from the Regina Leader-Post at 1:00 to talk about Saturday’s game, and Ben Pickman from SI.com will talk NBA Finals at 1:20. I expect we’ll hear something about something soon, perhaps it’ll be today.
NEW for The Athletic: Edmonton Oilers’ Tyler Benson is at a career crossroads
https://theathletic.com/3368227/2022/06/17/edmonton-oilers-tyler-benson-crossroads/
Interesting perspective from a Vancouver point of view on the Keith retirement and it’s Cap implications, etc.
https://canucksarmy.com/2022/06/16/nhl-chance-right-thing-salary-cap-recapture-penalty-canucks/
If the NHL is penalizing teams who signed these contracts (Vancouver, Florida), but won’t give teams who are disadvantaged by the tails of these contracts recapture benefit (Oilers), you’d think the’d at least allow the cap hit to match the salary once the deal is traded (Oilers).
Anyway, we know that’s not going to happen.
biaGretzkyJersey, did you have your baby yet?!
The Kane situation sure is complicated, huh?
GMs like to be proactive in FA frenzy, get their problems resolved and pronto. And while the lay of the land might change prior to the opening bell, right now GMs have a lot of other options at wing.
Will multiple parties wait around for him, taking the chance on coming away with nothing as the other options disappear off the market? How much available cap space will be left by the time Kane can sign, if he can sign?
I mean, there’s some potential for a discount there for a patient team, but it takes playing a game of chicken to find out and at the end of the rubber road there’s a cliff. And of course, this a three-way game of chicken–Mexican Chicken–because the arbitrator is also involved, not just other bidders. He might not be a free agent at all, when the chicken crosses that road.
And if you still want him and it looks like there’s a healthy chance there might be a trade at the other end, do you hang onto the assets you want to send the other way, rather than clearing space for a free agent signing?
I feel like every team interested in Kane right now is facing these same issues. This has to be deflationary on the asset price and constrains future job mobility. I’m kind of stunned the agent and the PA have allowed things to come to this. I can’t think of any other wrongful dismissal style of case where if one wins the case, one is forced to return to the employer… and the loser in the case is awarded the labour asset back to recoup value from. And if the Sharks win and are awarded the asset back after terminating the rel’p, that would be just as bizarre.
Now, I know that sitation above is merely analogous and not directly relevant, but the ethics involved seem very close to my mind.
Regardless. Kane could be very cheap given the circumstances. But do you take the risk? Is a handshake deal possible? With both parties. Be all over Sharks management, just in case, as well as Milstein. Hmmm….
So with Milstein, you tell him, “Look… your boy can’t get the auction for his services that he’s looking for. Guarantee you will sign with me if arb awards him free agency and I will guarantee a 1yr, $5 mill deal, and Evander can test the waters next summer, if that is his desire, after another year of killing it with Connor.”
Of course, San Jose is whole other complicated situation.
Stubbornness seems to be the problem. At least that is the rumour mill. And it is compounded by the fact that Kane has a M-NTC that limits his trade destination to 3 teams.
I have no idea why he would want to go back there unless he wants them to trade him to a specific team at a contract and terms that team can afford and would find to their advantage. A team that he likes while ensuring he gets his $7M for the next 3 years. 😉
Not to mention there’s no one in the GM chair, so it’s tough to talk to a decision-maker ahead of time with any surety… who knows what the new guy is thinking? Especially if they could give two flying about the back story…
Pink Floyd- Money
I was googling Andrei Kuzmenko to see if there’s anything new and came across this article with a few tidbits about his meeting with the Oilers yesterday:
https://canucksarmy.com/2022/06/16/day-oilers-took-joeys-gifted-signed-wayne-gretzky-jersey-andrei-kuzmenko-vancouver-meet-canucks/
As well as this very brief scouting report from Doobers Hockey that mentions his ‘elite skating’:
https://dobberprospects.com/player/andrei-kuzmenko/
Rick Dhaliwal
@DhaliwalSports
·
15m
Agent Dan Milstein says free agent Andrei Kuzmenko is in Vancouver and will meet with Canucks tomorrow.
It’s the last interview for Kuzmenko.
Decision next week.
I played a lot of doobers hockey back in the day…
😉
Mats Lindgren! 2.0 Gotta take him!
One interesting aspect of the Weber trade is that his contract was massively front loaded so Vegas is only on the hook for $3 million this upcoming season and $1 million for each of the subsequent three years.
Thats a tidy bit of business.
And for those predicting doom and gloom for the Knights, a reminder there is a team that has done the same on a regular basis…the Tampa Bay Lightning.
Worth noting, Tampa will carry Brent Seabrooks $6.8 cal hit on LTIR for another two seasons.
Mature teams with all the holes filled, strong drafting, history of winning, great management, attractive tax structure and climate can get away with things other teams struggle with.
Las Vegas fails on the strong drafting requirement and I could be wrong but management is looking more under control of ownership than most players/agents like don’t you think?
In sales you can always overcome one red flag, two becomes more difficult and three usually ends the conversation.
Does Vegas have holes to fill and are there first seasons the pattern or are they on a drift downward? I think any reasonable agent sees the same thing.
Aggressive GMs can do things
They’ll wiggle out. It may not work
While Holland watches doing diddly
And a reminder the Knights missed the playoffs and Tampa didnt. And Tampa didnt pull a Dadanov trade scenario one. Knights at about $76M for 17 players including Broissoit and they’re goaltending is highly questionable. Don’t look so formidable anymore. And dont include Eichel as an injured player last year. He was traded for while injured, so that was a planned injury, not a case of a healthy player within the cap had the misfortune of being injured.
Whether you want to include Eichel or not is meaningless.
GP LAST SEASON
Mark Stone 37
Max Pacioretty 39
Brett Howden 47
Nic Hague 52
Reilly Smith 56
William Carrier 63
William Karlsson 67
______________
Alex Martinez 26
Zach Whitecloud 69
Brayden McNabb 69
With that level of injury, I would suggest its remarkable that they only missed the playoffs by 5 points. Given even average injury they would easily have made the post season.
Speaking of highly questionable goaltending….
As a rival team, I’m enthused that the Knights just made their team worst while locking them in tot he LTIR system in perpetuity (unless they pay more assets to get out).
Not to mention, they already a few million over the cap with 16 players counted and can only go over by 10% – going to be paying to cut more and more.
The Knights cap situation is an unprecedented mess.
No World Cup games for Edmonton in 2026, how infuriating.
Apparently, the province wouldn’t kick in any funding unless Edmonton was guaranteed 5 games and that didn’t happen.
Vancouver will host 6 games.
Some folks need to be relieved of their duties.
If Letang is gone and Carolina doesn’t give Deangelo the pay day he wants, that’s two teams that would pay for Barrie.
Except if Letang does to Carolina and DeAngelo goes to PIt – or one of them signs Klingberg.
Weber traded to the Knights for Dadanov.
Effectively locks in the Knights as an LTIR team for the next four years (which is FANTASTIC from a rival’s point of view given we know how limiting LTIR hell is).
This will help their cap situation for sure but, of course, their roster just got worse (and will continue to do so).
Also, lets not forget, a team can only go over the cap by 10% in the off-season – Knights are already at $85MM with like 16 players on that roster.
The key going forward is that no team, like Arizona, take the Weber contract from Vegas – the contract isn’t insured but the cash outlay the next few years is very small.
It would be hilarious if Weber and/or Dadanov vetod the transaction because of no trade clauses.
True: Weber sure wouldn’t – with lower taxes in Nevada, he stands to make more – although I would need to do a bit more work re: taxed via employer jurisdiction vs. residence, etc.
Esposito, Kaldis, Kambeitz, Peter’s, Kielb all sign AHL deals with the Condors.
Good stuff.
Malone should be in this group.
Malone is Woody’s Lander.
I think that’s about right.
Malone’s going to score 20 points in half a season centering Taylor Hall?
That’s bold Godot10.
Leon Connor and Nuge got roughed up pretty good in the playoffs. Malone is a couple of injuries away from playing on the big club.
Malone on the NHL roster is a problem.
He leaked goals against in his games a few years ago, he leaked goals against in the regular season and in the playoffs this season – worst on the team.
He is objectively worse than Archibald except fr faceoffs.
That’s actually not true at all. In his 23 games with the Oilers before this season he was on the ice (5v5) for 1GF and 1GA. 48% SF, 51% xGF.
He also scored 2.18 points/60 this season, which is only possible because it was a tiny sample size. Basically meaningless.
Anyway, this isn’t meant to be an endorsement of Malone, but I don’t particularly care if Woodcroft were to want him as an extra forward (and I think it’s quite unlikely he does).
Malone had a 2-4 goal differential and a 43 percent shot share in 55 minutes last season five-on-five. Four GA in 55 minutes is incredible.
However, Josh Green was 1-7 in 71 minutes during the 2011-12 season. Jesse Joensuu was 6-21 in 366 minutes, and was 1-12 in 194 minutes the following year.
Rob Klinkhammer was 1-7 in 125 minutes during 2015-16. Jujhar Khaira was 15-34 in 678 minutes in 2019-20. Sheehan was 17-37 in 668 same year.
So, Malone on an NHL roster IS a problem. However, it doesn’t mean he won’t be on the roster next season.
Yes I agree, being on the roster IS a problem which is why I wish that this deal was an AHL deal, like his last few. I fear this player could be a blind spot for Jay W – he was his captain for years in the AHL.
Sample size, role and linemates are everything here.
As JP points out a small sample has created other anomalies in his statistical record.
That said, if Malone is on your roster, it’s not because he’s a problem. It’s because the roster is having problems… the most likely being injuries.
Of course, he’s not in the top 12 forwards, but he shouldn’t be in the top 16 forwards – that’s a depth problem due to injuries.
Frankly, he wasn’t in the top 15-16 forwards available to Jay W. in June but Jay chose him to play over players that, in my opinion, are better – there was a deep roster of “black aces” and Malone got the call – even over the likes of Devin Shore and, to me, it was a mistake and a mistake he’ll likely make again in the 2022/23 season.
Maveric Lamoureux – he should not be picked before the 3rd round, but he will. Lamoureux got an all-situations push and got top 4 minutes on a middling team. So in 54 GP with PP time he finished with 4 Goals 20 Assists and 69 PiMs. He’s played 78 regular season games and 11 playoff games in the Q.
Noah Warren played 3rd pair with PK time and on a good team he finished with 5 Goals 19 Assists and 52 PiMs. Warren progressed a lot since his first season (he’s played 91 regular season and 11 playoff games in the Q) he is very good defensively and he will be a decent puck mover who has some decent offensive instincts. He still has lots of room to grow his game and the progression has been there.
Sorry, forgot to add that Warren played in 62 games this season.
If the Oilers draft him, they should try to get Pesce from the ‘Canes so they can have a Tolstoy D-pair of Warren-Pesce.
If you want a shortcut to finding Noah Warren’s profile on hockeydb.com, rather than typing out his full name, type “No War”
Dear Terry Jones:
Now you will have more free time to read Lowetide, and would like to welcome you to the greatest Oilers situation outside of Rexall Place.
Dear Mr.Lowetide: Please be careful with the use of phrases such as “dealing No. 29”. Our psyches are very fragile. Thank you. 😊
Anytime I hear the number 29 I instinctively think of Ken Dryden and I’ve never been a Habs Fan.
Another potential Barrie deal is something like
Barrie for Jason Zucker (if Pittsburgh moves on from Letang and Kane is gone). Zucker has 1 year at $5 million left.
Kane out. Holloway, Zucker, and maybe Kuzmenko (and maybe Bourgault) in.
Pittsburgh might even be willing to retain a bit on Zucker.
Barrie is earmarked for the Isles – Varlamov and Mayfield as potentials.
Lou wants offence from him back-end – his words.
Make it happen. I like Barrie he scored a huge goal against L.A etc but we need a real Goalie.
Also need some tough big D
Meh – not all teams need to be built like Tampa.
Samorukov, Niemelainen, Kemp, Deharnais – all big and tough.
The last, unlikely to ever play NHL games, the 3rd a distant bell but the first two both very likely to play NHL games this season.
Also off-topic:
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/sports/curling/bettman-says-nhl-projected-to-set-revenue-record-this-season/ar-AAYweas?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=31bb9a3bf425478da59e9d5528fd9d9b
The NHL has made record revenues and does NOT attribute any of that increase to gambling. Very interesting claim, I am skeptical and puzzled.
Quoth Mr. Bettman: “Everything we do, particularly around the game, and from a business standpoint, is only important to the extent that the game is healthy on the ice, and the game is healthy on the ice.”
Yeah pull the other one Gary, I hear it plays Judas Priest. The rush to re-over-expansion has each team carrying an entire line full of players who would not have been good enough to be in the NHL even back in the 90s, when over-expansion was already a problem. The NHL decision to ignore interference in general and infractions against skill players in particular helps to provide “balance” – now if you’re a plug who wouldn’t have been good enough to get a sniff of the NHL 10 years ago, you still have a chance to succeed against the Connors of the league thanks to the refs’ collective willingness to be on national TV looking right at penalties and not calling them. The NHL also enforces “balance” via cockamamie Bettman points, as though losing in overtime is worth half as much as winning, and via instructing their refs to call more penalties for trailing teams than for leading teams. The NHL publicly provides unfair help or harm to franchises regularly by creatively re-interpreting or ignoring its own rules – you know, most teams are allowed to hire fired coaches, but for some reason the Oilers had to compensate with draft picks; some teams face penalties for circumnavigating the cap, other teams get to win the Cup while 18M over the cap (that team should be renamed the Tampa Bay Asterisks). 18M, by the way, will buy you one Connor McDavid and one Zach Hyman, that is not an inconsequential advantage, but the NHL evidently thinks its fans are a bunch of dumbass peasants who don’t understand cause and effect relationships. Fans routinely go to the arena to watch hockey players and come home talking about the refs – if you went to see a band and came home talking about the roadies, how many more times would you pay to see that band? For me, the answer is zero. The shameless emphasis on gambling, coupled with the fact that the NHL and its broadcasting partners appear to be doing business directly with bookies, is very, very bad for the integrity of the game and is already alienating fans who understand how gambling works (it’s a predatory business model that relies on a steady stream of mathematically illiterate victims with money to lose, no disrespect intended to working folks who have been victimized by this scheme). They’re hoping to grow this sport while also keeping it obvious to any thinking person that the league is corrupt, unfair by design, and has carefully made sure to leave the tools necessary to fix matches lying right out in plain sight for decades. It appears their long term business strategy is, “you can fool some people all the time, and those are the only customers we’re interested in.”
For me, the NHL has jumped the shark, and I don’t think I’m alone. The NHL used to be a really big deal to me, and bit by bit, it has become harder and harder for me to support this league. I don’t remember the last non-Oilers game I watched. I didn’t watch an Oilers game for a stretch of several months this year by choice, I’m 41 and have never done that before. It’s hilarious to me that TV companies pay the NHL for broadcasting rights – I cut the cable 13 years ago because of the NHLs regional blackouts! That’s right cable companies, you used to get money from me every month and now you don’t and it is because of the NHL! Now I stream games and I really hope the NHL doesn’t get a dime. I haven’t bought a ticket to a game in almost 10 years, I haven’t bought any merch in more than 7, I asked my family and friends to stop gifting me Oilers merch 5 years ago, I stopped blogging about the Oilers that same year, I stopped participating in my family’s annual playoff hockey pool 3 years ago. I gave up trying to convince other hockey fans to boycott or protest two years ago. I don’t give a wet moldy turd who wins the Cup once there aren’t any Canadian teams left, except to root against whichever side is cheating more (*cough*Tampa*cough*). In all honesty, if the Oilers had won this year I would have been happy, but not even close to like I would have been in 2006 – my experience as an athlete has taught me not to value wins that are gained unfairly or dishonestly, and I think fair victories are the exception, not the norm, in the NHL. Revenues may be up, but relevance is down, and has been trending downwards for decades.
I am lucky enough to be a musician. If I don’t want to support the music industry, I can make my own damn music, and I do. I am lucky enough to be an athlete. If I don’t want to support the NHL, I can play my own damn hockey, and I do.
I agree with the majority of this. I have a different view of the gambling – it is predatory against an addiction. It is aimed directly at people who are already addicted to gambling.
The point of advertising used to be to get new consumers to try the product in order to get a market share. The adverts this year do not seem interested in new consumers. They’re interested in people who already gamble, whether they can afford to or not.
I also cut the cable years ago and rarely “borrow” a stream. I paid for Center Ice for one year and it was terrible. My nephew now lives with us and he has Sportsnet on his XBox. When watching the Oilers this year, we would turn the adverts off. They were so annoying. I didn’t feel the urge to gamble once and I like the odd bet.
That’s a good point that I missed out on. It’s easy to forget that behaviours can be just as addictive as substances, and easy to fall into the trap of “addicts are losers” instead of “addicts need treatment.”
A buddy of mine has an entertaining rant that goes something like, “If you teach kids differential equations, they won’t grow into adults who max out their credit cards. If you teach kids logic, they won’t grow into adults who spend their money on things that won’t make them happy. If you teach kids statistics, they won’t grow into adults who play the lottery. If we ever let our teachers do their jobs, the economy will end 20 years later!”
I understand how you feel about more casual gambling. I’ve put money on a game on a “between friends basis” or “ante up for the hockey pool.” Ugh, now I’m getting flashbacks to the time I bet a buddy 20 bucks the Oilers would beat the Leafs because I had done my homework and knew they were starting Garret Sparks. Sat in the billiards lounge above Chianti’s on Whyte ave watching us lose 3-0 while my Leafs fan buddy was like “Hey everybody, this guy put money on the Oilers! I can’t believe you put cash money on the Oilers, I mean, thanks, but what the hell were you thinking?” At the end of the game I gave him a 20 spot, he gave me a big shit eating grin, and went over and chatted up some cutie, spent my 20 bucks on a couple drinks with her, and left the bar in her company.
Its called Grooming if you can hook a certain amount of young’uns” on how great gambling is you have them for life.
God, I remember the Sparks shut out…dark days indeed! As for your buddy? Well, I guess that was as good as it got for him for a few years, Leaf wise at least!
Haha yeah for sure, being a Leafs fan is its own punishment 🙂
Essentially, yes, its all part of one disease – the disease of addiction – whether it manifests itself in abuse of substances, sex, relationships, food, internet, gambling, etc., its all part of the same disease.
There’s lots of casual gamblers that have started gambling from the companies that advertise. I know it’s the new kids on the block but if you look closely they also advertise liquor and beer too.
Somehow we don’t think of all the alcoholics that can’t watch a game without having beer ads every commercial
These Gambling sites make a huge amount of profit just like the VLT’s. The VLT was placed at every lounge and bar in the City. Walking distance for everyone that played them. People lost their houses, marriages, life savings, children college funds and in more than some cases suicide. Of all the addictions Gambling gets the least amount of press. Why do you think that’s the case??
Maybe gambling organizations are making savvy campaign contributions? Every politician who voted in favour of legalizing VLTs should absolutely cover their heads in shame. Terrible for society in pretty much every way and was very obvious in real time.
Let’s say the cost of divesting of the Kassian and Klefbom contracts is about the same as what the Oilers would get in a Barrie trade if they added a 3rd round pick or so. If removing both those contracts, I think Kane could be signed at about 5.5 million or Kuzmenko and Marchment could be signed for about the same. This only works if Smith either returns or someone like DeSmith replaces him for about the same money. Would probably be able to accumulate enough space to add a goalie at the deadline.
In this scenario I assume Yamamoto and Puljujarvi could be signed for about 2m on one year deals, McLeod 1.2×2, Kulak 2.5×2 (still would be young when cap goes up), and Russell for league minimum.
Kane McDavid Puljujarvi
Hyman Draisailt Yamamoto
Foegele RNH Ryan
Holloway McLeod Bourgault
Shore
Nurse Ceci
Keith Bouchard
Kulak Broberg
Samorukov Russell
Skinner
DeSmith/Smith
The team is very similar so would be banking on improvement from young guys, a little more forward depth and getting to the deadline with shallow goaltending. Could subtract Foegele and Kane for Marchment and Kuzmenko for a little more room perhaps.
It’d going to be tight to hold steady with this roster, much less improve it.
If Barrie is gone, and Keith doesn’t retire, and the Oilers sign Kulak.
I think Kulak with Bouchard and Keith with Broberg is better. It balances out the mobility issues of the Keith Bouchard pairing. Broberg’s mobility will ameliorate Keith’s issues, and Keith would be a good mentor.
You are on a roll today. I agree with every one of your posts.
I think that’s been the plan all along.
If the playoffs have taught us anything, the successful teams can restrict players from getting to the front of the net and can punish them when they do. If skill set is relatively equal, I am drafting size and toughness all day. Please no more soft as butter small D-men. Predictions…..Smith to LTIR, Barrie out for cap space/picks, Pool party out (although I would keep him), Kulak signed, Holloway in, Kassian traded with salary retained or bought out. The big concern is no Kane and no Kassian means no SOB’s.
I like big D a lot. They’re usually better at clearing the front of the net and making sure their goalies can see shots.
Can’t teach reach
The playoffs also taught us that 3 teams with average or below average size D corps could make the final 4.
If Kuzmenko is pencilled in for the 2nd line RW, in my opinion, its imperative that both Yamamoto and Puljujarvi are brought back as we know both can at least be serviceable in the top 6 and we simply don’t know that Kuzmenko can be.
Off-topic, but this has me kind of mad at the NHL: NHL says Evander Kane’s next contract could be voided by arbitrator (msn.com)
Okay, a league with access to billions of dollars and many pricey lawyers is going to be “unable” to have their arbitrator reach a decision until after free agency… for a complaint that was filed on January 8th. Millions of dollars on the line for the player, the stability of the franchise on the line for San Jose, I would be furious if I was a Sharks fan. This league is so incredibly lazy, corrupt and amateurish.
The Sharks drop their objection to Kane’s suit and welcome him back and trade him to the Oilers with $2M retained dropping his cap hit for Edmonton to $5M for the next 3 years.
Everybody’s happy. 😉
I had the exact same thought, except the “$2M retained” is Zack Kassian going the other way. San Jose can wipe their hands clean.
That works too.
Frank Seravalli suggesting a likely outcome is a negotiated settlement similar to the one reached between the Kings and Mike Richards but Bill Daly says Kane is balking at that.
https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/nhl-says-evander-kanes-next-contract-could-be-voided-by-arbitrator/
With Kane being bankrupt can he enter into an agreement settlkng for less money without creditors’ approval? Technically those are not “his” money?
Of note, Friedman/Marek, on their pod today, said there haven’t been any settlement talks – both sides think they have a strong case.
Yeah, hilarious claim that “whoopsie, because the player had a playoff run and the arbitrator is unavailable for a month, our hands are tied, if only someone could have seen this coming or something could have been done about it. Oh. Well.”
Justice delayed is justice denied. The player, the Hawks, the Oilers, and the notion that the NHL gives a crap about being a fair or competent sports league, are all losers here.
So this means no one will sign Kane until the decision is made.
Yup. The league is not going to do Kane any favours.
I think Kane has the option of just giving up his claim, which is a heck of an awkward spot to be in. I get that he’s done things that have made some people mad at him, but this is not an appropriate way of punishing someone.
I don’t think this is about punishing anyone – the NHL doesn’t set the dates of the hearings – they are just one of the three parties involved – the NHLPA itself is the party the filed the grievance.
Hahahaha oh my God that’s even worse! Kane’s own union is the reason he’s not getting the due process he purchased by paying his dues?
The thing I worry about a little for goaltending is the situation we had with Markstrom a couple years ago. There were tons of options available. We keyed on the one we liked most and the negotiations didn’t work out. The action in the market was fast and furious and by the time the dust settled pickings were slim for a plan B. I hope we’re flexible enough to be working on several options at the same time, everyone has to be on the clock. We don’t want to be the one without a chair when the music stops.
I always believed that Markstrom was the only goalie deemed worth of chasing that summer (er, fall… of 2020). They had Smith and Koskinen coming off decent regular season numbers and were only interested in an upgrade rather than lateral move.
Looking back at the goalies available that FA period, there was no others anywhere close to Markstrom in quality.
No chair is better than an electric chair that actually stops the music! Live to fight another day. Desperation makes for bad choices etc etc. Hindsight is always twenty twenty!
This will be the biggest issue for Holland in my opinion. Koski gone, Konovlov gone, Smith likely LTIR or retired. Cupboard is bare for goalies in the org. Skinner and ?
Fanti
Fanti and Rodrigue. Not a lot to hang your hat on.
Seems to me that Gibson is an unnecessary risk with respect to asset cost and cap usage.
There is data out there showing his GSAA falls as the season goes on. Doesn’t match the profile of a guy who will take you on a long playoff run, as it appears fatigue is an issue with him.
I am intrigued by Ville Husso. Wouldn’t mind a Skinner/Husso tandem.
I’m not sure if it is because this team has such an abysmal record at developing goalies or what it is but I think there are a lot of people underestimating Skinner.
I know the team is supposed to be in its contending window and rookies in key spots make people nervous but the team out of training camp is not the same as the team after the trade deadline and Skinner/Smith gives me more confidence than Smith/Koskinen ever did.
If Smith retires things change, of course, but Skinner is being undersold by a lot of guys (not you) around here imo.
Defensive system and quality of the D have a large part to do with the success and or failure or your Goalie. It is in my opinion that is why picking a goalie is voodoo!
Forwards are the easiest to evaluate just using math, dmen are a little harder – especially those we call stay at home types – and goalies are, as you say, very context dependant.
I want Chris Osgood…er…Jake Allen.
I think Ullmark would be okay also.
What will be the AVV on Kuzmenko?
Anyone?
850k I would think.
$925K is the max for an entry level contract according to CapFriendly. Kuzmenko can only be signed to a one year ELC.
I believe bonuses are allowed on top of that max base salary as well.
I’m not sure if he’s eligible for the same max bonuses as a 1OV, say, or if they’re lower.
He’s as eligible to negotiate the bonuses as any other player signing an ELC.
He’ll likely get $850K in Sched A performance bonus potential (maybe some sched B bonuses as well – but those are essentially non-obtainable) but that won’t hit the cap this coming season.
Presuming we are in LTIR (i.e. Klef’s contract is not moved), any performance bonuses hit will create a cap penalty for the following season.
Without injury, Bouch will almost assuredly his his $850K and Broberg has the potential for $850K and Holloway $500K.
I can’t wait to be rid of that Klefbom contract.
Holland values picks more than cap, as he said in his year ender
I don’t think he’s right. Especially with a full top 6 for years, unless he’s hoping to replace Leon or something
But this all for me points to second level management skills. Yes he can find decent players. He has made the team a little better each year
Gregor pointed out the best teams are top heavy. Dominant players win more big games, that is why. Those teams also have GMs active in all three player acquisition phases – draft, trade, UFA. Our guy does 2, only one well, drafting
They use analytics departments and fine cap value. They actively go after players. Their rosters are not populated by mostly drafted players, some it’s a good bit less than half
Good teams spend picks and because they are good they can develop players, and they recoup picks trading players out
There is no reason Holland can’t look at his team that needs a few spots upgraded or filled, get on the ‘phones’, clear cap and LTIR, and go get those guys
We will see 3 or 4 GMs do this very soon. He doesn’t because he’s wrong in his his thinking, or maybe doesn’t think he can. Either way, whatever the reasons, it isn’t top level management
And for goodness sake stop creating dead cap space. There’s a 5M dollar player not on the team because of that. A significant player
This group and us deserves an active, smart GM. Who is not sentimental or afraid of fan reaction. There are two guys that should be untouchable. No one else. Top players get traded for good returns that help the team be deeper or Cap able
The arena is full no matter what. A better team that wins more fixes all anyways
A right side of
Yamamoto
Kuzmenko
Puljujarvi
Kassian
spells “big trouble” for me.
What say you Godot10?
Kuzmenko is listed as LW
Hyman can play RW
I’m starting Bourgault with Hyman and Draisaitl.
It would be quite shocking if Holland moved from the CHL directly to the NHL – you never know but it doesn’t seem likely.
Very likely at least a half season. If he blows it up maybe. But Holland can’t count on him as a roster player yet, he’ll have to unseat someone, and the cap issues may preclude that
“My guess for this season? A defenseman in the first round,”
A defenseman in the first round? OR, a defensemen with the first pick?
” I expect we’ll hear something about something soon, perhaps it’ll be today.”
Reach for the Sky!
https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTegEinWowA3mnQF9YmDPk72BIKS1DV7bgsXFo4cnd_6Q&s
What do you project for Kuzmenko then LT? Somewhere between Gusev and Panarin? 😀
Alphabetically speaking….Yes. 😉
Gusev, according to the math, had a NHLe of 87 points per 82 games the season before he came. And he had a few star level scoring seasons before that. He managed 54 points in 97 NHL games. NHLe needs to be tempered by age and hopefully somebody actually watching the player to see if they have the attributes to make the jump.
Panarin and Kaprizov were scoring stars in their early twenties. NHLe would have us believe that Markus Granlund could show back up in the NHL and get 60 points which is more than double his best season in the NHL.
Who’s going out to bring in Gibson in your mock lineup, LT?
“My guess for this season? A defenseman in the first round, a bigger prospect and possibly a shutdown type if he’s available”
I would add Ryan Chesley at #29 to your list. 6’0.5″201 lbs
Chesley is an impressive prospect
Risky pick though, NCAA factor and from US. I don’t think a 1st rounder has ever pulled a Schultz, but there is a chance, especially with a late 1st rounder.
The NCAA is a great factor – gives the team like 4-5 years to sign the player – rights are kept longer.
For a CHL drafted player, the rights only exist for two years…..
FYI: He was just profiled on the Locked On Oilers podcast – man I miss Hernan.
Bring Back Hernan!
Bring Back Hernan!
Also Oilers might consider Tristan Luneau or Noah Warren
Just based on a couple viewings and his preseason games, I believe Bourgault looked much closer to NHL ready than is being recognized.
I would be interested to hear from our prospect experts on this.
I am far from being an expert, but I see him the same way Winchester.
He found open ice and also won his share of board battles in pre season. Intend to watch/tape the memorial cup to evaluate other parts of his game.
He looked VERY good in his exhibition time last camp but we do know that it really doesn’t mean all that much, in particular the early exhibition games.
I expect him to look good at camp this fall as well and then be dispatched to the Condors in the 2nd last round of cuts.
LT, in your roster construction above, who did you move to get Gibson? Barrie +?
Bourgault, first, Klefbom contract.
You do know the Soup is hot and free this summer. 🙂
LT, you seem to have a pretty strong belief that Gibson is better than his numbers these last few seasons.
Aside from the publicly available articles and numbers, I was wondering if you’ve gotten any scouting or insider type info that suggests Gibson would rebound with another team? (since you have the opportunity to talk to a lot more of these people than most of us do)
Trading Bourgault is a bad idea. A successful trader lets their winners run. Taking profits early is a losers game.
Broberg, Holloway, and Bourgault have been Bayseian de-risked by their post draft performance. One needs outperformance out of young players on ELC’s or transition deals to contend.
Agreed. Bourgault is an elite offensive player, has been compared to Eberle. Has proven in the playoffs he is a big game player. 5 GWG including 3 in OT.
Oilers do not have an elite right hand shot finisher. I’m predicting he will be called up next season, likely in the New Year.
I don’t imagine that Bourgault is moved unless its a blockbuster of a deal.
After he and Holloway, there really aren’t any plus level forward prospects that are almost assured an NHL career.
Yes, we all have hopes for the likes of Savoie and Petrov and Tullio and that youngster over in Russia, etc. but none of them are sure bets and, for the one or two that do “make it” at some level, its likely not any time soon.
I think Broberg is the last sure “keeper” in the group and after that we’ll see. If Holland needs a blue chip prospect to complete a deal this summer, my suspicion is he does it.
I feel the Oil should dedicate one selection annually to a shifty, playmaking defenseman
These player types are starting to rise again (as they did in the 80s)
The pendulum swung to big men who could skate – but not necessarily put up points (i.e. Nurse, Broberg)
Get me a Norm McIver please and thank you
Nurse actually does score.
Evan Bouchard may break the 40pt barrier….someday.
Bro had pretty nice box cars in his rookie pro season too.
Nurse scores. He ranks in the top tier of even strength points for defensemen over an extended period of time. Broberg scores in North America. They are also both doubleplus skaters. Swedish coaches in their elite league didn’t know what to do with Broberg. They like their cookie cutter D and their systems play. Nick Lidstrom is their archetype.
Bro has a VERY productive offensive season – actually his outright production as a 20-year old d-man in the AHL isn’t talked about enough.
WAY ahead of what Klef produced at the same stage.
I would note that the vast majority of those points were on the PP, and were mostly feeds to the side-boards from the point – he still got the points but that PP time was something that, for example, Klef didn’t get (Brad Hunt and others did).
FWIW (big FWIW), Broberg actually scored pretty comparably to Lidstrom at the same age.
In their age 18/19 SHL seasons:
Lidstrom 58 8-10-18 (0.31 pts/game)
Broberg 89 4-17-21 (0.24 pts/game)
I thought they would take Jesper Wallstedt in the 2021 draft when it was available to them.
Many did. Many remain angry. I had Bourgault No. 14, Sebastian Cossa 18 and Jesper Wallstedt No. 19. So, I was, and am, pleased with the decision.
https://lowetide.ca/2021/07/23/here-comes-the-sun-2021-draft-edition/
Miles to go before we find out if this was a mistake or not but I would note that Wallstedt was the clear back-up in the SHL this past season and barely saw the ice during the playoffs.
Of course, he’s a definite top goalie prospect but years away from helping – Bourgault will arrive earlier and I look forward to ordering a Munzenburger in due time.