It took some time, maybe a week longer than expected, but the plans of summer are now coming into view. Early on Saturday evening, word came down that the Oilers and Jay Woodcroft were getting close on a three-year contract. That’s big. In fact, that might be the biggest procurement piece of summer. There are more irons in the fire, and we can finally discuss them.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: How Edmonton Oilers would benefit from signing Andrei Kuzmenko
- New DNB: Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl’s playoffs for the ages: What’s the legacy?
- New DNB: What if Edmonton Oilers trade Jesse Puljujarvi? The case for and against
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ Tyler Benson is at a career crossroads
- Lowetide: What does Oilers’ optimal roster for Jay Woodcroft look like?
- DNB: Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl’s playoffs for the ages: What’s the legacy?
- DNB & Scott Powers: What it means for Blackhawks, Oilers’ cap situations if Duncan Keith retires
- Lowetide: Oilers pro scouts have to get it right in free agency this summer
- DNB: Edmonton Oilers offseason priorities: A 10-step plan for success
- Lowetide: What will Edmonton Oilers do in first round of 2022 NHL Draft?
- Lowetide: Can the ‘Connor McDavid will ask Oilers to be traded?’ group please sit down?
- DNB: Oilers end-of-season takeaways
- Lowetide: Young Oilers players poised for bigger roles after playoff run
- DNB: What Oilers goalie Mike Smith’s unclear future could mean for offseason plans
- DNB: Oilers’ season ends, and critical roster decisions will define what comes next
- Lowetide: In defence of Edmonton Oilers defenceman Darnell Nurse
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Warren Foegele may be victim of cap crunch this summer
- Lowetide: WHL’s 2022 defence crop attractive target for Oilers at NHL Draft
- DNB and Dan Robson: Connor McDavid is the best skater NHL’s skating greats have ever seen
- Lowetide: Why Jordan Dumais could be NHL Draft steal for Edmonton Oilers
WHAT WE KNOW SO FAR
- Jay Woodcroft is the 17th coach in Oilers NHL history, and it looks like a three-year deal. I’m not sure where the negotiations will land, but one hopes Dave Manson is part of the staff and Woodcroft gets a group he is comfortable with moving forward. The Oilers, in the past, have tended to throw in a “and Kelly Buchberger will be the defense coach” at the end of these announcements.
- Andrei Kuzmenko visited all interested teams and now he and his agent will make the decision over the next few days. Kuzmenko’s signing, if it does come to pass, is the one player transaction that can be completed without worrying the cap hit. Put another way, it’s independent of the other possible moves.
- Josh Anderson is a player the Oilers have called the Montreal Canadiens over this spring, and that’s from Pierre Lebrun. Please click on this link because there is more Oilers news contained inside.
- Evander Kane and Brett Kulak remain on the radar.
- Jesse Puljujarvi, Kailer Yamamoto and Ryan McLeod are the main RFA’s, no word on any of them but some speculation about JP’s future. Uncertain where it lands, but both Lebrun and Daniel Nugent-Bowman had updates this weekend.
- Mike Smith and Duncan Keith are pondering their futures and we should find out soon.
HAPPY FATHER’S DAY
My Dad gave me baseball, Hank Williams, a sense of humor and a stubborn streak that I’ve been assured is all-world. He was the first person I lost in my life–he died in 1992, and since then he’s taught me everyday just how long exactly one forever looks like.
He was a good man. Not prone to grand gestures of any sort, looking back he showed how much he cared in important ways. I remember one time, this would have been in the sixties, he was showing my brother how to chop kindling. Dad used to do all the axe work, and his two boys would carry the fire wood into the house and the kindling was last.
Anyway, my brother had been doing some of the axe work (he was four years older than me) and begged my Dad to try the finer work of kindling. Well, as fate would have it, my brother was a quick study, and that part of the chores became his domain immediately.
One day, I remember this so well, it was in 93 Mile House, BC, we had a house right by the highway, the axe slipped and cut my brother’s finger. It wasn’t a severe injury, but there was some blood.
My Dad, understanding it was a life moment where he could teach his boys about handling stressful moments like a man, said “well, son, looks like a little cut there. Now, both of you, this is how you dress a wound” and in a calm voice began to explain what he was doing.
As that instant, my Mom came outside and screamed when she saw the blood. Being the manly man I have always been, I began to cry, which caused my brother (we were young) to do the same. I so remember my Dad saying my Mom’s name in a “you’re not helping, dear” voice and that was the end of the axe experience for both sons until we were older. I should insert here that Mom saved us dozens of times from peril, so glad she was along for the ride.
So many stories from my childhood involve my Dad teaching me, sometimes harshly, about life. He had a tough childhood, I won’t get into it but his first 20 years on the planet were a lifetime.
He taught me to be a good person, to have humility and to provide for my family. He didn’t teach me to be a stubborn mule, however, he did pass it along.
I lost my Dad 30 years ago June. He met my wife (they got along famously) but died a few years before my son was born. I miss him awful, wish he were here. If you have a Dad on the planet, you reach out to him, please. I know it’s complicated and Dads are a different animal than Moms, but they’re damned important and that relationship needs to be there.
If you’re a Dad, happy father’s day! I hope you get a fabulous present, a great day with your family, and acknowledgement for the things you bring to the lives of the crew you helped get here. Sometimes that’s not your biological Dad, but that makes zero difference. Your Dad is the man who can look you in the eye, knows who you and where you are, then tells you.
Value it, ladies and men. When it’s gone you cannot get it back. My gift to my Dad today is the use of yellow in this post. It was his favourite. We had yellow cupboards most of the days I lived at home. I’m hopeful for a good gift this year, it’s been five years since the last bag of socks and my daughter now has enough influence to impact the quality of the gift. Funny how things work out. 🙂
THE JOSH ANDERSON TRADE
Things happen for a reason. Remember when the name Duncan Keith landed in Edmonton last offseason? It was many weeks before the actual trade. I’ve always believed these names arrive because there is some smoke and it could turn into a fire. That said, it doesn’t mean a trade has been made. I expect any acquisition of a player like Anderson depends on the Evander Kane negotiations.
I don’t believe it’s realistic to expect the Canadiens to trade Anderson for just established players. The club is clearly reloading, and that means picks and prospects. The No. 29 selection at this year’s draft, next year’s first, Dylan Holloway, Xavier Bourgault, Matvey Petrov and other picks and prospects would likely need to be part of the equation. I don’t believe Philip Broberg would be in play, Oilers are a year away from replacing Duncan Keith with Broberg on the second pair. Edmonton doesn’t have time to develop another one.
With respect to Jesse – I felt Holland’s comments were directed squarely at his agent to temper his contract demands. I could see Lehto pushing for a similar deal that Kotkaniemi signed, and Holland saying no dice.
I think Foegele is out for a draft pick. Kassian moved out or bought out. Barrie traded for draft picks. Yamo signed long term at reasonable cap hit, and both Milstein clients Kane and Kuzmenko on the team. With both Holloway and Bourgault coming … Jesse is going to have significant competition next season.
A one year deal at 2.5 million signed just before his case goes to arbitration is how this likely plays out … maintains Jesse’s value in a trade but also allows him to come to camp on time, play well and earn a contract like Kotkaniemi’s next season, whether it be with the Oilers or another team.
An uncomfortable truth:
Kassian, Foegele, Keith, Barrie are loved by McDrai.
If this love leads to the bleeding out of effective players that help you win, they may not win cups.
A big part of growing up this off season, for those two, may mean pushing for the signing of JP and really bringing him into the fold.
Everyone’s favorite narcissist Kane may ironically be the bridging figure that is needed.
Source?
Reply to LT from below:
That jives a lot with what Dennis King said on Twitter near the deadline; he said he actually saw some of the inner workings of the analytics department and that it was quite bad/basic. Paraphrasing.
I haven’t lost all hope re: JP because although he is an analytics darling, he is also an eye test darling, if you know where to look. I think Woodcroft likes him and the hockey world is in love with Nichushkin. JP is/was better at similar stages in their careers.
The Oilers can still make the right call for the wrong reasons; I won’t damn them for it.
Optimal outcome? Kane as the domino that leads to no Anderson, and some permutation of Woodcroft/B. Holland/Gretzky pushing for JP long term.
I think you’re dreaming lol
Loud talkers on Twitter don’t have access to the inner workings of professional sports teams.
Reply to JP from below:
Agree there is some possibility that JP stagnates at where he was in the second half, production-wise.
There was still a TON of good happening with him on the ice. Couldn’t the lack of production be luck related? Also, if JP had one good year — would that be enough for you to commit to the player long term? At what price?
My position on this is you will *never* get cap efficient contracts unless you exercise some risk. Draisaitl at 8.5 was risky at the time, plenty here hated it.
There is no world in which you get a solidly, consistent, productive JP at a cap hit of 4.8 x 8. But I think you could get it now. The cost of doing so is simply sacrificing Barrie and Kassian/Foegele.
That is such a spectacular win in terms of cap efficiency and asset management.
Lots of talk about Nichushkin; JP has outperformed him at this stage of his career. Someone brought up Wheeler recently, and I’ve brought up that comp in the past.
Naysayers want to win but you need to take some calculated risks in a flat cap world and there are so many signs (Nichushkin, Kotkaniemi, JP’s own exaggerated development arc) that point to making a bold move.
I think J.P would score score 17-22 Goals on Carolina team where he has no pressure and he’s playing with his mate Aho. Holland has already traded with Don Waddell. I see J.P headed to Carolina. Boook it!
I think playing with Aho he gets 25…
He just doesn’t mesh with Connor, Nuge, Hyman or Leon but he does mesh with Mr. Kane. The biggest smile that tops all others this spring was the Kane making J.P feel good.
You make it sound as though Kotkaniemi’s $4.8M deal, and Nichushkin’s upcoming $5-6M (?) contract, have been proven value deals already.
I agree with you the main avenue to value contracts is betting long term on young players. Making those bets doesn’t guarantee a payoff though, and $4.8M isn’t that cheap. Nuge is a 20 minutes a night, 22-38-60 per 82GP player with a $5M cap hit, and lots here still think he’s meh value.
You mention ‘JP stagnates at where he was in the second half””. My previous post looked at his last 2 seasons as a whole, including the highs (Oct/Nov. 2021) and the lows (2nd half 21-22). I don’t think you can argue bad luck across 2 seasons, and I didn’t focus only on his most recent (poor) performance.
In terms of Wheeler, that’s the absolute outlier best case scenario (multiple 90 point seasons as the best player on his team). OP has mentioned Kilger and others as a counterpoint. I don’t think either one is a fair comp at all, but if I’m being honest I couldn’t claim Wheeler is the more likely outcome (and that’s not to say I think Puljujarvi is a Kilger, because I don’t at all).
Jesse may have fashioned himself as a playmaker when he was in Juniors, but he now seems to understand that he’s not in the same league as McDavid, Draisaitl or RNH as a passer. He had success this season when he didn’t hesitate to shoot. Unfortunately, he has a muffin shot and seemed to really lose confidence later in the season. He was getting glorious chances and whiffing on them … you could see from his facial expressions that he knew it too.
I fully expect him to work on his shot and take a step forward towards being a more consistent scoring threat next season. Only thing that may hold him back is that he has been a bit injury prone … so there is some luck in what Jesse becomes … if he can stay healthy like Wheeler did, then he’s going to ascend. But he could have an injury-filled career of unfulfilled promise like Kilger and so many others have.
One small quibble with Nuge’s numbers that you listed: 22 goals, 38 assists equals 49 points, not 60.
That’s some advanced analytics there ;-p
A fantastic Father’s Day thread on the Twitters. And there is even an entry about the fabled
camping box”.
Chris Jones
@EnswellJones
In 1984, my family embarked on an epic road trip across America. My parents, my brother, my sister, and me—and my brother’s best friend for good measure—in a Country Squire station wagon with fake-wood panelling. I was 10 and about to see my dad cry for the first time.
https://twitter.com/EnswellJones/status/1274024567258918917?s=20&t=7jtCpnMFxwqq2HjOFbL6Sg
People give you a minus all the time cause you’re such a dick but you do at times post link gems …. That was fantastic. Thank you Chris. Thank you HH.
Just watched the Kuzmenko highlight package and a few things stood out to me. I would love to see a non offensive package so I can judge his abilities when the opponent has the puck.
-Low center of gravity, his skating posture is deep, bent knees, bent over…this seems to give him better balance and make him harder to knock off stride.
-Hungry to attack the middle of the ice, is the opposite of a perimeter player
-Has poise in-tight, doesn’t panic, very good finisher, not afraid to hold on the puck or take space given to him.
-Excellent offensive vision, sees and can find teammates with higher scoring options
Good stuff – thank you.
One thing that LT did note (I think it was in his piece at the Athletic) is that he was a significant out-scorer, year after year after year. Of course, that’s not an individual stat (plus/minus, GF%, etc.) but it was consistency positive year after year and that likely means he’s not terrible defensively (paraphrasing LT’s thoughts on that).
Randle’s Fun Fact O’ The Day
All 4 of golfs Majors have been won by golfers who were over par after 72 holes.
The Masters and the PGA Championship have both been won 3 times by golfers who were over par for the tournament.
https://www.pga.com/archive/highest-72-hole-scores-win-all-four-mens-major-championships
You notice how none of the the LIV sellouts scored well. They must feel quilty? Dustin is married to Gretzky’s Daughter plus he’s made over 40 million lifetime. How much is is enough money??? This doesn’t come close to comparing the NHL to the WHA.
The Andrei Kuzmenko decision that’s coming next week……is now actually this week!
And it damn well better land between the hours of 10am and 2pm….ama right?
#TimePassages
I’ll put my money he chooses Leon and Connor
The most interesting part of this saga for me is the relationship between the GM and the agent and how much effect it has.
We never really know what gets said during negotiations. The give and take, the ‘future considerations’ offered etc. but it sounded like Holland collected some brownie points during the Kane discussions and scuttlebutt that comes up from time to time is always complimentary when it comes to Holland.
Now it may be true that those feelings and $7.95 can get you a medium Latte at your local barista hangout but generally speaking relationships get you a little advantage when the comps are close.
We talk a fair amount here about the McDavid & Draisaitl effect for signing here but I think a lot of guys also want to feel comfortable with the guy signing the checks and holding the demotion/trade card as well.
I would add…who is the coach and how would he deploy me?
Often when older Russians come to the NHL they’re deployed in the bottom 6 and soon yearn for home.
Yeah, I thought of adding that but wanted to focus on the Holland/Millstein connection since it has been talked about so much as Kane went supernova during the playoffs.
But, yeah, since money isn’t really going to be all that different across all the offers it is going to come down to the personal relationships if the agent’s advice counts.
I think that gives Edmonton a leg up but you never know.
Personally I think it is bad form to promise deployment based upon anything other than on ice performance – something desperate/lousy GM’s do.
Yes…and they do it often.
I can’t imagine the coaches were very involved in the process since VGK just hired Cassidy and Boudreau is in Hershey.
And of course the Oilers coaching situation is still up in the air.
“And of course the Oilers coaching situation is still up in the air.”
No, it really isn’t.
Woodcroft was even seen at the Oilers meeting with Kuzmenko.
Link?
Link here:
https://canucksarmy.com/2022/06/16/day-oilers-took-joeys-gifted-signed-wayne-gretzky-jersey-andrei-kuzmenko-vancouver-meet-canucks/
I can’t see anyone offering him number 1 PP without earning it. You want to piss off your core players this is not what you tell the Russian. The same agent as Kane surprise surprise I’ll throw a $100 on bet 365 or one of those other 10 different gambling sites Sportsnet is grooming the younger generation to lose their paycheques.
Millstein has expressed how great his relationship is with Holland and that being a key factor in the Kane discussions. You are right, it may mean nothing with future Kane negotiations or with Kuzmenko but it seems is has been a factor in the past.
Holland can promise any free agent winger that they are going to play with one of McDavid, Draisaitl or RNH on any given night, with some time spent on a perennial top 5 PP. That’s a pretty good sales pitch.
I would hope that Holland doesn’t mandate his coach to deploy players in any given manner.
I would also hope the coach has full authority, not only with respect to initial deployment, but also to move players around in-game as he decides is required.
The parties can have a conversation at lunch in the summer but on-ice deployment will be earned by the players, no?
Mathew Fitzpatrick crying in his fathers arms on fathers day.
#USOPEN
Adam Hadwin top 10
Hadwin finished T7 with Keegan Bradley but Bradley got way more ‘screen time’ on TV. Same thing happenned with Corey Connors who finished T6 at the Masters.
Dam that was fun golf to watch
As for Andrei Kuzmenko, what do Edmonton, Vancouver and Las Vegas have in common?
Not much that I can see.
If you were Andrei, which city would you visit first.
I would visit my favorite first, let them show me the baseline on which I can evaluate the other two cities/organizations/personnel.
I would pick Edmonton if I were Kuzmenko. The chance to play with McDavid or Leon with an entry level contract gives him the best chance for a big contract
From a high level, yes, however, will it be true in reality?
I mean, PP1 time with those guys is unlikely (at least to start).
5 on 5 time with those guys could/would be talked about but is there any surety for the player? Its really yup to him to earn, and keep, that spot, right?
I would say that, yes, the Oilers give the player the best opportunity if the player is able to seize it with his performance.
That might depend on a few things outside the Oilers orbit.
For example, Vegas will be desperate to add an accomplished player on an ELC and make promises we never hear about.
Vancouver might see Kuzmenko as a replacement for Boeser (they should know his contract demands by now) and cash him in.
Cashing in Boeser. Ha!! Not gonna get much for him. Quite possibly this worst time to try and trade him. Most teams are capped out and the ones that aren’t get to chase top wingers like Gadreau, Fiala, Debrincat.
Those you mention are likely to get $9-$11 million on their next contracts.
There would be a solid markets for Boeser with his next contract likely to come in around $7 million.
Solid markets? Around $7 million for that bandaid? Has only had one full season under his belt and has never reached 30 goals in a year.
Thank you for yet another hilariously skewed perspective. Just like Chucky is gonna sign with Cgy for the same money as his brother did in Ottawa? Remember that gem you foresaw happening?
Someone is gonna give up big assets to get the pleasure of signing Boeser to 7 mil. Oh boy
This is in response to Ryan’s response to me – it won’t post in the reply box but keeps showing up here for some reason
I apologize if my response that day was ill-times as it relates to your personal life and I truly hope you are doing well and everything is OK.
No, I don’t know the origins of the phrase but merely used it for its current modern day meaning (well, as I understand it). I saw a post that, on my read, used an example to try and prove a certain conclusion (read: narrative) when the exact opposite conclusion (read: narrative) could be drawn by citing a seperate, but equally true, example (along the same lines) which I did.
No disrespect was meant by using the phrase and it wasn’t personal at all – didn’t even know it was “you” i was responding to (I often respond without even reading who I am responding to, simply the content of a post).
Your apologies are very structured.
But good on you for attempting to heal the wound.
I hope that Ryan accepts your olive branch.
#TwoValuedMembersOfTheCommunity
Why is this coming back up again???
For a guy who depends on clear language for a living, you sure seem to ‘unintentionally’ insult others a lot. Just sayin…
This is tiring, everyone involve should forgive, forget and move on.
Agree to disagree and work towards “being better” when posting.
Posted in Error.
Was this the one where you just broke down and said “dammit man, I’m sorry”
Kypreos saying that the Panthers are looking to move Bobrovsky and are willing to retain half.
4 more years at $5MM…… – he turns 34 before the season starts – don’t think I’m in to that commitment (with assets out as well), even if he would agree to Edmonton (NMC) and if I believed anything from Kypreos.
Varlamov at $5MM with one season left on his contract would be a much better play if we could talk him and the Islanders into it.
Yes, of course, a deal that I have mentioned as my preference many times and am hopeful but doubtful.
If they take Kassian and a 2nd at half price on Bob I’m all in. I think Bobrovsky would shine like a Tim Thomas in Hockey mad Edmonton.
I’ve always been nervous watching goalie Bob and I’ve never cared for any team he’s played for.
Pass.
Yeah hard pass for me too. Bob is great in the regular season but he’s always seems to be the second best goalie in a playoff series. At 34 years old that’s a pretty risky 5 million dollar bet. I’d much rather sign Jack Campbell.
Bob is young enough to be Smith’s son in dog years.
There is lots of love these days Burnaby Joe. He has been making the final player decision on hockey since 2013. His results are;
3 x round 2 exits
2 x round 1 exits
3 x DNQ for playoffs
It takes time to win in this league and if Joe was the GM in a Canadian market with that record he might not be the GM as his work begins to deliver cups.
The Avs are a monster, that’s for sure, but its taken a long time, with alot of suffering and disappointment, to get there.
If the Avs didn’t make the finals this year, then, yes, Sakic would likely have started to face questions about his future and ability to get his team over the hump.
Of course, they did make the finals and we are where we are.
But that is not the point. “If he were in Canada” is the point.
He’s also the beloved face of the franchise’s glory years though … Sakic would have gotten a lot of rope no matter what.
(disclaimer, the following assumes due diligence has been done on Price’s injury and personal issues)
I think there’s a huge opportunity to deal with MTL right now. If Holland wants to go ALL IN, and MTL is willing to swallow dollars for assets….there could be a huge blockbuster possible.
Price @ 50%, Anderson @ 50% and Petry @ 50% for Xavier, 2022 1st, 2023 1st, Barrie, Kassian, Smith…maybe throw in Lavoie and/or Desharnais to dump the Klef contract as well.
Kassian Smith and Barrie are all serviceable short term options for MTL while they rebuild, Kass can protect the kids etc…They would get a huge boost to their prospect pool….the Molson family could essentially pay $10M to speed up their rebuild…
Imagine the last playoff series with a healthy Price, Petry over Barrie and Anderson over Kassian…all else equal. In this scenario we could still dump Foegle and Yamo to bring back Kane. IT’s a massive RISK, but our window is wide open….I would swing for the fences
Any Price deal would be difficult to negotiate, because I think both teams would want to hedge the long term risk, Montreal for Price’s potential upside, the Oiler’s for Price’s potential downside. There would have to be a lot of conditional draft picks in the out years going one way or going the other way base on Price’s performance.
Not an easy deal to negotiate, since it is a “Schrodinger’s cat” deal. It is really three deals or more deals in one. A deal for each potential path dependency, negotiated beforehand.
While Price was great, can he be again? I think one could make a reasonable argument that betting on Mike Smith next year is safer than betting on Price. And how many people want Smith back? I’m afraid trading for Price would be opening the window by smashing it.
Price still seemed to have issues with his knee at the end of last year. Did not look good after his return. Its a massive risk and I would not do it.
Price is done his heart not in it, he’s going to LTIR into the Sunset.
yes go trade for players who are injury prone or whose best hockey is behind them……lol
Is it possible for the sharks to pull their grievance?
I’d think Kane under contract for 7M for three years, with the ability to retain salary would be a pretty valuable asset for them to put on the trade market.
Considering our window is now, trading JP for Kane and 3M retained (4M cap hit) would give Holland a serious shot at building a contender for the next few seasons.
It is Kane’s grievance, not the Sharks.
Sharks didn’t file a grievance, Kane did. SJ to totally capitulate and honor the terms of the grievance now is damning for their credibility with their own team and their agents – opens a pandora’s box whiny players/agents grieving every possible thing regardless of validity as a tactic, only because SJ folded like a two dollar lawyer.
Also, Kane has the hammer in any trade. He has a modified NTC, which allows him to name the three teams he would allow a trade to, effectively muzzling SJ’s trade attempts in a HUGE way. This gives the acquiring team and Kane the hammer, meaning no bidding war .
SJ took the scorched earth step of declaring his contract void. Now they have to deal with the ashes. If the arbiter rules in Kane’s favor, AND rules SJ retains his contract rights for the original dollar and term – Kane gets three more years at 7M no matter of who he wants to sign with. No longer an immediate money decision for him, professional environment/hockey fit/family concerns become much more paramount.
SO- say that happens. SJ loses the grievance and retains Kane’s rights. Kane decides three more years to pump his stats with McDrai before his next contract, a fresh start for his family in a welcoming city and more fun than he has had for a long time are the grist for his mill… Kane submits his three team list to SJ. The list is Edmonton (his desired location) and two other teams who are not viable destinations (either because of team needs/cap issues/lack of interest in Kane, etc.). SJ will pretty much be forced to trade Kane to Edmonton (or whoever else is the preferred team on his list), and, his buyout would be 14m over 6 years( 2.333M per year) – meaning an acquiring team (Oilers?) would quite likely propose that SJ retain 2M x 3 on salary. SJ takes 1m less hit than a buyout over the three years remaining on the contract and also saves 7m in cap penalties over the three years post contract on the buyout. They won’t be happy they lost the grievance to Kane, as they have been shown to be a vindictive bunch, but the 8M swing in cap hit to their favor over the 6 yrs is a way to salve their wounded egos.
This to me is a very possible outcome of that scenario.
Ok, gotcha. So if Kane wins, the Sharks get to trade Kane. This is the ideal outcome for the Oilers as they no longer would have to worry about term, and can negotiate a cap retention scenario with SJ in return for extra assets.
Pretty much. That three team list of his becomes a MAJOR lever in that case.
Actually, may not NEED extra assets to get the cap retention. We have the hammer due to Kane’s three team list. We throw them a small bone as our side of the trade (B prospect, lower draft pick) and the reduced cap hit vs SJ having to otherwise buy out Kane is all the incentive required.
SJ has shown themselves to be vindictive enough on this player that I also doubt they have any appetite to buy him out and send him to unfettered free agency as that would be salt in their wounds as a BIG plus for Kane personally. Given the choice of buyout vs retained salary in trade, SJ would MUCH rather not do Kane any favors. Thus, a cap neutral or better solution to them that also punishes Kane by denying him full free agency would likely be preferable to SJ.
Never underestimate a rich man’s ego.
I’m not so sure…if the Sharks win….Kane might sign another 1 year deal which would be better for the oilers.
Another way to analyze that question is thus:
SJ shat in their own bed, by negating the contract, and now must lie in it. Both sides are steadfast in their belief they will win the grievance hearing.
SO… only way out before then is if a settlement is reached. Say SJ offers equal to the buyout option – 14m spread over 6 years. Kane’s camp would likely refuse that out of hand. If they win the grievance Kane gets 21m over 3, a larger amount. If Kane loses the grievance, he likely gets more in dollars and term as well, after his performance with the Oilers. No reason to accept an offer at that level.
Confident they will win the grievance, SJ will not offer anything close to the original contract. That is like accepting you are going to lose outright and is pointless.
It is unclear right now, though, that if Kane wins the grievance, what will be the terms?
If I am SJ, and do not retain his rights, I want to be free from any obligation to pay anything more than a top up on Kane’s contracts over the next three years to the original 7m per. So, if he signs for less than 7M per, SJ only owed him the difference. If he signs for more than 7m per, SJ owes nothing for the years included in the new contract up to the original three years remaining.I suppose in that situation, if Kane’s lawyers and agent were completely vindictive, he could sign with ANYONE for 1M x 3, force SJ to top up the remaining 6M x 3. A final FU on the way out the door…
Of course, if SJ retains his original contract, my previous reply stands…
This is fun!
Thanks for laying that out. It seems like – apart from saving face – SJ making a deal with Holland, with Kane’s agent on board, for a nominal return with $2M retained would be the low risk move. If Edm. ended up with 3 years of Kane at $5M per I’m sure most would be all over that. Coincidentally he would be up with Drai which would also be good timing.
I will not be surprised if something like this ends up happening, either with Edmonton, or whoever Kane prefers as his destination (assuming the Grievance is upheld). Funny thing though… the Grievance won’t be heard until well after the start of Free Agency. If Kane loses the grievance and becomes a free agent, his list of suitors may shrink along with his price, as most of the big deals will be done and in the bank well before he is declared a free agent. This also could favor Edmonton, although not as much as the first scenario…
Holland had the Sledgehammer on his buddy Bowman and look how the Hawks came out grinning from ear to ear.
Did he really? After the Larsson bombshell Kenny was in a pretty dicey situation. I didn’t see a lot of other options with a similar player/contract still available at that time. Keith also has a low actual salary and expired at a good time vis a vis our percolating talent on the farm. He filled a gap and bought precisely enough time to let his young uns mature on the farm, Not as bad as you think.
No, he didn’t – Hawks could simply have not traded Keith.
I agree that Holland should have walked away if Bowman refused to retain (or take back a couple years of bad cap) but Holland wanted that asset and valued it at the cap hit.
Bowman grinning during playoffs???
SJS losing their grievance is the best possible option for the Oilers – IF – Kane wants to return. The trade list severely restricts SJS options, the term remaining is fine, and we can probably dump a contract like Kassian’s on them (net would be $3.5 million plus a league minimum contract to replace Kass). If that pans out then you build a shrine to Holland. I don’t think it happens but the league is playing serious bush league BS games with their little “arbitrator is on holidays” schtick (no surprise).
I would be very surprised if the end award is that the contract is re-instated. I guess it could happen but it seems unlikely to me.
Even if it does, how do we know that Edmonton is one of the teams that Kane would “choose” to go to?
I will be somewhat surprised if Kane doesn’t win his grievance – the reasons for voiding his contract were extremely thin. SJ’s top players and management basically wanted him gone from NHL team, banished him to the minors and waited for the smallest slip up from him as an excuse, and the NHL went along with it, but they’re not likely to be as impartial as the independent arbitrator who will be reviewing the grievance.
Kane’s agent wisely arranged for Kane to join Edmonton, where he was able to rehab his reputation around the league. Personally I think Kane has the high ground.
Since then Joe Will was named Interim GM … I’m not sure how invested he is in this mess, but since getting the job, he’s signed Barabanov, another of Milstein’s clients (who reps a LOT of Russian players)… so I suspect that main antagonist in the organization was Doug Wilson.
Personally, I think Kane will be back in our team’s jersey next season, after winning his grievance, and getting his contract re-instated, Milstein will give the Sharks his list of three teams that he would accept a trade to, with the full understanding that two of the options are not feasible, after which Joe Will will quickly conclude this mess and trade Kane straight up to the Oilers for Kassian, no money retained on either side.
I really really really don’t want to trade any of Bourgault, Holloway, or Broberg.
Edmonton and Montreal are a potential match though for an Anderson deal if Montreal is willing to take one of Foegele or Kassian back, and if Jake Allen is in the deal.
There is a trade there that I would do if it doesn’t include any of the big three prospects.
In: Anderson (maybe with Allen) and some non-first round draft picks.
Out: Some combination of the #29 pick, Puljujarvi, Barrie, Samorukov, one of Foegele or Kassian
I wouldn’t trade Puljujarvi. But I think Holland and Woodcroft don’t value the player as much as I do.
Allen and Skinner would be a reasonable tandem to get to the trade deadline, if not long term.
Trading Bourgault right now for an older vet to fill a hole would be like Dallas trading Iginla to Calgary for Nieuwenyck… Bourgault would be Iginla in this parallel….
I don’t recommend it…
Dallas did win the cup though in 1999
Would they have lost with Iginla instead of Nieuwendyck? I’m not so sure of that. They also missed out on an outstanding career from Iginla and Nieuwendyck was out of the league in a couple of years.
I hear ya – Iggy was one of the all time best. Love that guy
Nieuwendyk was traded to Dallas in 1995, won the cup in ’99 (and ’03 with the Devils) and played his final NHL game in 2006. Hardly ‘a couple of years’.
Without checking the details, I concede I my be fuzzy on the details all these years later. But I do recall Iginla, in my limited way, being the better performer of the two by a wide margin over Niruwendyck’s remaining career and continued to be a strong player right up until the end.
Anderson is signed for 5 years at a bloat.
Kassian and Foegele are each signed for two years at a bloat (for Kassian at least).
Cap is set to rise after 2 more years but, of course, McDavid and Drai will need raises (and Bouch after this season).
The Kassian money out does not work for Anderson in given the term and the timing.
Finally we agree on something!
I agree with you that Holland and Woodcroft do not value the player. I do believe that giving up all that for an injury prone overpaid player and a decent netminder would be an overpay
A big, dumb, bold prediction based on a burning sensation in my gut – Woodcroft will be GM after his 3 year contract.
I think Jay W. is looking forward to a long coaching career in professional hockey!
Keith Gretzky may be the next GM (with Steve Staios being developed internally).
I was born in 92 and my dad was 41 at the time, so there’s a pretty big age gap between us. I’ve said it before here, I love hockey (and music from 1963) so much because hockey and music were the easiest ways to connect to a dad that was 41 years older than me.
Both my grandads had passed in the 80s before I was born, but by all accounts they were great. It always made me feel like I missed out.
I wanted to have kids younger than my dad did so that my kids could know him. My Dad has been fighting prostate cancer for 6 years, and it just came back about a year ago. It was never guaranteed. I have two sons: a three year old and another who’s turning 2(!!) in less than a month.
My parents just visited for 8 days at the beginning of the month. Every time they’re here the time they spend with my kids is so precious to me. The kids are so good to them and love them so much. I don’t think anything has ever made me happier than seeing my kids play with my parents. It’s perfect. Happy Father’s Day!
Leon and Connor need help carrying the heavy load it was on full display before the Kane signing and after. We were sucking hind tit until Holland got some beef in Kane. J.P and Yamo are just along for the ride. Nuge and Hyman help a bit but aren’t river drivers. If Holland signs the Russian and adds Kane I’ll be more than happy with Holland and the agent he’s dealing with for both players.
I will agree with you on Kane, but Hyman was an absolute beast during the playoffs. Yamo played his heart out. JP hardly played enough for me to give an absolute, definitive answer. I would bring him back provided that they have intentions of playing him 15 plus minutes a game. If not, trade him. Nuge, is the eternal protected player who apparently is excluded from criticism. We still don’t know who is at 29…….the Russian is a question mark until he actually comes over and plays……..
We all love Hyman, of course, but he did end the season -7 at 5 on 5 and Nuge was +4 at 5 on 5 and I would posit with many less McDavid/Drai minutes than Nuge.
Not to mention Nuge had 50 points in 62 games – yes, lots on the PP but he also had lesser linemates in aggregate than some others.
At 29 you think you could win a face-off are two when it counts. If Nuge could master the face-off and then watch 24 hours with no breaks of Patrice Bergeron we might have our poor man’s Dave Keon.
A quick perusal of the internet shows that there is almost nothing to the Anderson rumour.
I also heard the Friedman segment live when it happened and there was nothing in it whatsoever other than Bob asking Elliotte what he thought of the possibility. What is not being conveyed is how much Elliotte shot it down.
And now, in true “modern-day” fashion, we have multiple articles simply echoing that one segment but of course, without it’s context or ANY actual corroboration. And echoing, in our bizarre present world, is now considered to be smoke…
Yawn.
So so True.
I think Lebrun’s confirmation is concrete, that’s why I wrote about it today.
Agreed. Lebrun is pretty solid and worth quoting.
I agree with Munny’s point about the media echo chamber in general; Below the level of the LeBrun’s, Firedman’s and MacKenzie’s, etc.
Bob Stauffer can be tricky. I think he sometimes works to “float the balloon” so as to soften the impact; And at other times “may” work to create misdirection regarding the Oilers actual plans.
What is Lebrun’s corroboration?
We have Kent Hughes stating, point blankly to the cameras two days ago, “I have no intention of trading Josh Anderson,” and talking about his relationship with the organization in terms of LOVE.
Is LeBrun repudiating that? What’s his evidence?
“no intention” is a non-denial denial, IMHO. To paraphrase. “no intention” is “I am determining the level of market interest in Anderson.”
Without a doubt he left room for being convinced. But this is the time of year for that. I don’t doubt that the Habs and the Oil have had a conversation or two. I would think/hope both teams have talked to many teams. The number of players discussed could be in the dozens.
My point is I don’t see why we should give this particular talking point any greater meaning or that particular player any greater focus than any of the other many options Holland will be investigating. Or, as we often find out afterwards, the team was right but the trade target was off. Anyways, I think this rumour has ballooned out of proportion because of the two people who had the original, speculative conversation.
I’m happy he’s talking to other teams and finding out prices, the lay of the land. It’s his office’s job.
Just curious about the nature of sports journalism in the age of the internet.
LT you work for The Athletic, do you think there is an “expectation” by the organization for someone like LeBrun to be able to provide “sources” and/or to vet sources?
Or not so much because it is all considered “commentary” and not news?
Are they at all concerned that you to document “quotes” that you reference. Or is it all a little more casual than that?
For reporters like Lebrun, DNB, Friedman, Rishaug, Spector, if they’re reporting it then you can count on it. Now, those individuals may ALSO add commentary, or articles that are strictly commentary, but if something appears in their work you can count on it.
Now, Lebrun says “I hear” in his article, so there’s some leeway, but he’s very careful.
For someone like me, I get all kinds of information and never publish it. Why? In order to confirm it would take all day and I don’t have all day. If I were 25, then a career tracking things down would be a worthwhile pursuit. I’m in my 60’s, by the time I establish myself in the industry I’ll be on a garbage barge headed for Guam.
It also benefits me to say nothing, because people can trust me. I don’t get tons of info, but it is helpful in framing issues.
Hope that helps!
I hear Guam is nice this time of year.
Yes. Helpful. Not definitive, but Helpful. I’m hearing “consider the source and parse the words”.
By the by, I consider the stuff you know and aren’t telling us to be “the most interesting”.(especially the behind the scenes of the radio broadcast) If people only knew the half of it.
Also, I’ve already taken “that” cruise and own a time share on Guam. You’re welcome anytime.
My fear is that the whole island will become so overly populated that it will tip over and capsize.
Yup, this is exactly what I’ve been saying.
Stauffer spit-balled his personal thoughts (which was clear from the show that it was not organizational mouth-piecing) and LeBrun played to the market with a one-liner in an article that the Oilers were one of many teams that had inquired on the player.
Habs management has said they want major pieces if they trade him.
All of a sudden, vitriol towards Holland for acquiring the player at full cap hit and giving up top prospects plus the first rounder.
A few years ago, Dusty asked Rishaug what he thinks the Yotes would want for OEL, Rishaug thought about it and said probably Broberg or Bouch plus the 1st and for weeks and weeks and weeks, that was the rumor and Holland was willing to pay.
Unreal stuff.
Remember that old game “pass the secret” where everyone sat in a circle and whispered a sentence into the ear of the person next to them.
I heard it’s JP and the 1st for Anderson 50% retained and an autographed Lafleur jersey
I don’t question LeBrun’s intel one iota but all he “said” was that teams are calling the Habs on Anderson and the Oilers are among them.
That’s it, that’s all.
Holland is known for doing his due diligence to be in the know for who is “available” around the league.
For some crazy reason, Holland being one of various teams that called the Habs has morphed in to Holland trading Bourgault and a 1st for Anderson.
Ill pass that along to the next set of ears…
I heard “Bourgault and a 1st for Anderson and you stock my pop machine for three years”
Thanks LT!…always love your family stories and they surely hit home…lost my dad in 1991 in june (he was 69 at the time and was a very big influence on myself and my other six siblings) ) funny I will be that same age this september…among being a crazy Oilers fan forever my grandkids know me also as a hotrod enthusiast…I did enjoy my fair share of very cool cars over the years and guitars (much to my wife of 48 years chagrin) Today we took two of our grandkids out to a fathers day car show here in nova scotia (they got to make club cars and race them) that was so cool…yesterday my grandson quizzed me on what Mopar was all about…he is six…such a blessing to enjoy this time with them!
There is one way that Josh Anderson merits some consideration imo.
Josh Anderson 50% salary retained for…… whatever
Dana Carvey responds for Montreal…. “Read my lips; NOT gon do it”
“I don’t believe it’s realistic to expect the Canadiens to trade Anderson for just established players. The club is clearly reloading, and that means picks and prospects. The No. 29 selection at this year’s draft, next year’s first, Dylan Holloway, Xavier Bourgault, Matvey Petrov and other picks and prospects would likely need to be part of the equation.”
My Kingdom for an Anlaytics Team and a GM who listens.
I don’t know what Anderson will cost, but I’m pretty certain the ask starts with Xavier.
#LesHabitants.
“he’s taught me everyday just how long exactly one forever looks like.”
Yeah, Right! Completely get this.
No to Josh Anderson
so I’m guessing it happens
I am flabbergasted that there is a chance Holland may be considering moving legit assets for Anderson. Yes, Anderson does bring certain elements but with his age combined with the cap hit and remaining term, that contract has more negative value than Kassian’s contract.
Don’t forget his injury history!
I’m not defending the move, but Holland’s pool of talent is the NHL. So, if Kane won’t sign, and there’s no obvious free agent in his price range, casting about to find a replacement is the next step. Holland is predictable in this way.
I’d like to think that the Anderson talk is just being used to deleverage Kane’s asking price, but your alternative makes more sense. Holland saw how Kane saved the season and turned the Oilers into a contender.
Agreed. Holland arrived on the scene with the clock ticking. There was never any thought that this would be a methodical rebuild. The Chiarelli experiment pretty much ensured that.
Yes, that would be flabbergasting but all we know is that Holland expressed some interest in the player and that MANY managers have done so. The Habs are saying it would cost big assets but that doesn’t mean there is any appetite by Oilers management to pay.
Happy father’s day everyone!
I hope Kenny watched and is watching the AVS closely for the good of the future of the Oilers…..more depth, 4 lines, more skill no more Kassian, Archibald etc….no need for a superstar netminder….and better defence!
This is a hypothetical 23 24 team with Kane and a goalie, looks pretty deep. Defense still has to prove itself.
I like that:)
While I’m apparently prone to pushing false narratives, I think it’s reasonable to note one key problem with using the Avs as a template…
The Avs were built on analytics, expert scouting, impeccable cap stewardship, and absolutely filthy hockey trades. You can throw in some luck in timing in drafting Macar and Mackinon.
Holland isn’t as shrewd at managing the cap let alone scouting and acquiring emerging talent the way they did.
If a Holland is going to get there…
It will be with a cigar in his mouth, a black leather jacket and sunglasses, and a sawed off shotgun. It won’t be pretty.
It won’t be won’t be years of watching a cheaply acquired Toews patrolling your top pairing,.. It will be with expensive vets either acquired via trade at full price or signed in free agency for same. Timing will have to be perfect and you’ll have to keep a constant watch on the wear bar indicators to monitor their remaining tread. There will be roster holes and wobble.
Holland is the t800.
I agree….I guess all that can be done is hope…
Another false narrative from Ryan! The T800 never smoked a cigar.
(I kid, I kid)
Wow, sensitive over a nothing comment, a month later….. the “accusation” was made, with factual back-up and comparisons and, of note, not countered with substance but threats to quite the community.
No disrespect was intended and, if you have a resentment or grudge or are holding on to something, I’m happy to “chat it out”.
This may be true but there are other options as well.
Maybe its with a veteran but productive core (Nuge, Hyman, Ceci, Nurse) complimenting the elite star power (McDavid and Drai) while properly developed young player supplement the roster on value contracts (Jesse, Yamamoto, Holloway, Bouchard), etc.? Once a prospect proves ready, they replace an aging vet in the lineup (Russell, Kass and Archibald out – Broberg, Holloway, etc. in)?
This seems like the prudent path forward. A few youngsters are ready to go or very close to it so the win now philosophy meshes well.
How difficult that will be is already built in.
The Hyman, Nuge and Nurse contracts take then into age-related decline while eating up significant cap space.
All got paid in money or term or both that will create a drag on long term success and a long term deal with Kane could offer more of the same.
Likely doesn’t matter much if the Oilers win a cup in the next 3 years but after that the wheels could start to fall off.
In contrast Sakic has been able to assemble a powerhouse without, arguably, one bad contract on the books and zero dead cap space.
Of course, like all successful teams, Colorado will have to be careful as it re-signs it’s free agents but thus far Sakic has shown he knows the true value of players and acts accordingly.
We frequently disagree, but glad you’re back.
I would take Evander Kane for 3-4 years at $7MM-$7.5MM over Josh Anderson at 5 years time $5.5MM – its not even close to me and that doesn’t factor in assets out for Anderson, from accounts, good assets.
No, I don’t want to give Kane that much for that long but if its a choice between the two options (which it IS NOT), I go with overpay on Kane, for sure.
I think it needs to be three years to make cap work down the road.
If Kane pops 50 at 7.5, he’s a value contract.
“I would take Evander Kane for 3-4 years ”
Still hedging on that 4th year OP.
Do you want to avoid Anderson or not.
I’ve been fairly consistent that I’m comfortable with up to 3 years on Kane but, at the same time, the AAV needs to work and extra year(s) can move that down.
I don’t want four years but if its gets the AAV closer to $6MM…..
Structure is important – smaller salary near the end, no signing bonuses near the end – i.e. buyout friendly.
Anderson it is then. 😉
I would think it would be a deal-breaker for Woody if Holland didn’t permit him to keep Manson on his staff, maybe even full authority for the entire staff.
I don’t see why Holland would have any issue with Manson remaining the primary assistant.
It will be interesting to see where the rest of the staff lands. Will Woody want to keep Gully? From accounts, Gully was a true professional after Woody was named interim head and gelled with the new guys well.
Wiseman?
How many years and Coaches has the Goalie Coach survived.
Too many…
Meh, “fire Schwartz” is over-played and I’m not sure many actually know what the goalie coach’s role really encompasses. I don’t profess to be in the know fully on this but, from what I’ve read and heard, the goalie coach isn’t a “skills coach” for a goalie and their job has as much to do with intel and scouting on opposition goalies as structure of current goalies.
Perhaps it depends on the coach, but from what I know of elite NHL goalie coaches (IE, Burke, Korn, Allaire, Ranford, etc) they specifically work on addressing deficiencies and implementing new techniques. Think of the turnaround by Dubnyk after working with Burke, by implementing puck tracking.
I’ve never been on the fire Schwartz train myself, but when Smith went to Kelowna to work with an outside goalie coach and his technique drastically improved (less athleticism and more positioning), a red flag went up for me.
—. Happy Fathers Day : I look forward to your yearly post on this day LT. Always special..
— it’s my first Fathers Day with 4 kids. (And going forward 4 is max!). Be good everyone
— I will do my annual off season Arm Chair GM poll next week: strange to be starting it in late June!
The Anderson trade rumours at least signal that Holland is ready to push for a cup. It’s a welcome sight to this fan after decades of rebuild. The time to stand and deliver is now.
Hyman-McDavid-Yamamoto
Nuge-Draisaitl-Anderson
Holloway-McLeod-Puljujarvi
4thline-doesntplay-Kuzmenko
How we get to this is anyone’s guess (I’m giving a first, Foegele, random trade throw-in for Anderson). It means no Kane, but this is a formidable lineup.
Happy Father’s Day!
Random throw in is likely the Bourg. Don’t know much about Anderson but the offense seems shy for the cap hit. Shades of Lucic, does Anderson have wheels?
Anderson can fly.
Stauffer has been stoking this fire for a few weeks.
This would be an awful move, but Habs GM saying they aren’t interested in moving him. This is rumour time, same as it always is leading into the draft. I also can’t see Holland pulling the trigger on this deal.
It doesn’t really make a lot of sense unless the Habs retain, which also does not make much sense from their standpoint.
The Oilers have contracts to get rid of. Kassian, Foegele, Barrie. Retention isn’t necessary if Montreal takes one, preferably, two (the 2nd being Barrie) of those contracts as part of the deal.
You know that Kassian won’t be part of that deal.
hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things,
There aren’t any real rumours re: Anderson except that Holland (among many others) have made a call to the Habs.
Presumably Holland has zero interest in paying big futures for Anderson (like a 1st or Bourgault, let alone both).
Anderson is simply not that good through an NHL season – he had the one 27 goal campaign early and hasn’t come close to it again (never even broken 20 goals).
He can bull to the net and he’s big and fast like Kassian (for hits) but, when he’s not on his once a year heater, he can go ice cold for months, isn’t great with the puck on his stick, isn’t reliable 2-way, isn’t reliable healthy wise, is approaching 30 and signed for big money for 5 regression years.
My goodness I don’t want that player with that contract – not even for free and not even with Kass going the other way.
That contract on the books for the re-sign McDavid and Drai years? No thank you.
Players like Holloway and Bourgault on their entry level contracts will hold tremendous value moving forward, especially when they are as skilled as they both appear to be.
I think Ken Holland would find acquiring Anderson acceptable, and even throw in a top prospect. Habs would have to take back money, though.
Well, of course, if the Habs retain $2MM plus, it changes the equation on Anderson completely. He turns from a negative value to a positive value contract, for me. I still don’t think it flips him to “top prospect” value, for me, but that becomes at least debatable.
Big difference between $5MM plus and $3.25MM.
At the same time, think about how restrictive the Kassian contract has become, at $3.25MM for a regressing and aging “power forward”…..
I think you’re arguing the logic and we’re on the same side. I’m suggesting Holland might do it, which is far more dangerous.
OK, that’s fair, what Holland “might do”.
Some seem to miss the middle step and criticize based on predicted future moves, and as if they’d happen.
For what its worth I don’t think Holland would pay material assets for Anderson at full boat. Worst case scenario is Caleb Jones and a 3rd, again.
You would think Bourgault being French would be part of the ask.
Then let me introduce you to the Oilers’ very own Québécois star winger Zaque Kassienne.
Asking is one thing, receiving is another.
Ask for Bourgault, come away with Laovie….
Hopefully Bourgault dominates the Memorial cup and is completely taken off the table.
Is he even “on the table”?
Thanks LT for acknowledging that Anderson is a legit possibility, having now been reported by not just Stauffer (organizational mouthpiece), and now Rishaug and Lebrun.
I’ve been cast as a tin foil conspiracy theorist, but the similarities to Keith last season are chilling. I’ll accept downvotes from folks so drunk on contaminated Oiler Kool Aid they’ve developed prion disease in lieu of an apology.
Why you should be more worried:
1 – Ken couldn’t squeeze Bowman when he was on the verge of being fired and while he had all the leverage. How’s this going to go with a former agent who went through an actual hiring process?
2 – The names Bourgeault and Holloway are being bandied about. You make a mistake on Caleb Jones, fine. You start fiddling with cheap top six options, sorry, you’re a dumbass for doing so when the return is Josh Anderson.
3 – Hughes has already leaked the “Anderson is part of the rebuild.” LOL bullsh*t. Holland will fall for this bogus propaganda and give up a first and elite prospect.
4 – You could sign JP for 8 years for less than what Josh Anderson makes. Let that sink in. That’s how dumb Holland is.
What can save us:
1 – JP and Kane signing.
2 – Someone smart in the org (?Brad Holland, ?Gretzky) staging a coup.
3 – Katz standing up and saying what’s what.
I don’t believe analytics is in the room no matter who is there at this time. Not really. I don’t believe anyone is in a position to save the Oilers this summer. They’re going to find Kane or similar.
That said, I have no quarrel with trading Bourgault, Holloway or any other prospect not named Broberg. It should be for the right piece.
JP is 100% the piece going the other way in a potential Anderson trade.
I don’t hate it. It’s win now mode for the Oilers.
Just wait until Price 50% retained comes along with Anderson.
lol two overpriced injury riddled players…..
I think JP helps the team win more than Josh Anderson (and that’s without even taking in to account contract and age).
Other than Woody….
Woody is a student of analytics, and has a degree in finance, no numbers don’t intimidate him (he didn’t just go through the motions in school, he was a high achiever) so maybe there is a ray of hope in the room….
What would you say is the right price for Bourgault and or Holloway?
Several things stand out to me here…
EDIT: Not advocating for Anderson over JP, or Anderson at all. I’m fairly neutral on him as a player, but we do need that type in the mix. If we can’t afford to keep Kane, it’s worth looking into at the right price.
Puljujarvi outscored this season and last season as far as points and he didn’t have a combined -35 (in fact, the opposite).
Yes, agreed, but their career high output in goals and points aren’t in the same tier.
And Anderson plays a style that would endear him to the home crowd much more.
I am a fan of JP.
Explain to me how paying Anderson 5.5 for 5 years makes sense but giving JP over3 for 3 years or more would be a problem??
There is a lot in there that I agree with but I am not convinced that Caleb Jones was a mistake of any consequence. He is only 25 so there is time for me to be wrong on that but I haven’t seen it yet and I liked him better than Bear coming out of Bakersfield.
This take feels like the summer of 2021. Holland got the team to the quarterfinals. Yet the Nay sayers are still Nay saying.
1.Keith trade worked
2.Smith and Koskinen got us to the playoffs
3.Bear, Lagesson and Jones we meh on their new teams
4.Woody added at the right time
5.Added Kane ($7M prior PF)
I was happy with the team and Holland’s work. There is room for improvement. This Anderson trade seems risky.
Kenny has to figure out if he is part of the solution remember?lol
Unless JP has said that he wants out then there is zero reason to move him. If anything bring in another Finn. Saying it has to be a choice between Jesse or Yammo is ridiculous. Look at how solid the Avs are up and down the lineup. Sign good players when they are cheap.
Completely agree with you. Music to my ears…..but remember Kenny is figuring out if he is part of the solution…..lol
1) All that’s been reported is that the Oilers have made a call and they are one of numerous teams that have inquired about Anderson.
2) Stauffer postulates many many internal thoughts that have nothing to do with management – he does this consistently all year and all off-season. Stauffer’s word is not equatable with managements word when he’s simply spitt-balling
3) Management inquiring on a player does not mean the names bandied around by bloggers, media, etc. have anything to with management. Thi is essentially the same as Rishaug suggesting that the Yotes would want Broberg or Bouchard in a trade for OEL and, all of a sudden, posts like this come that posit Holland is thinking about that.
4) What mistake on Caleb Jones? He was a healthy scratch for much of the season, on a team with a meh defensive group. 2021/22 Keith >>> 2021/22 Caleb Jones, right? The trade can be criticized based on Keith’s cap hit but “mistake on Caleb Jones”, really?
5) Holland has been managing for decades and decades – you can think “he’ll fall for Hab propaganda” but that doesn’t mean its true and is really just more of your same – criticizing management for what you think they will do based on what others want or say.
I 100% agree that Anderson is a terrible target and it would be completely egregious to trade a first or a Bourgault for him. Of course, just like Holland didn’t pay Bouchard plus for OEL, there is nothing to objectively criticize Holland for in this regard.
Criticizing management for off-season speculation of bloggers and media – its a thing and its mind-boggling.
You might have something to say, but “I’ll accept downvotes from folks so drunk on contaminated Oiler Kool Aid they’ve developed prion disease in lieu of an apology,” makes you sound unpleasant so I stop reading.
My advice: embrace the Lowetide spirit, we’re not the kind of community for this.
Reply to JP from prior thread:
Puljujarvi’s IPP may be low, but we know from watching that he frequently makes uncredited contributions on goals for and is a rock defensively.
We know this player type is important. Every line he played on was better with him on it. He helped 97.
This isn’t hard thinking for Holland.
When I say 4.8 x 8 is a good idea on JP, someone is going to pay that much for Nichushkin this off-season (probably more), someone smart has already payed that for Kotkaniemi.
A cap hit of 4.8 is basically a wash if you hit the eject button on Tyson Barrie. The dollar amount becomes a steal as the cap rises.
As per my crude projections, JP is easily a first line level player with some better luck and pretty minor intrinsic improvement. That’s when the price tag goes wayyyy up.
Even supposing his shooting percentage 2 years ago was an anomaly, he can *still* become a first liner.
You don’t have to squint too hard; just look at his first 28 games or so, as OP has pointed out.
Dennis King tweeted that 5 – ish mil / year was the number long term for JP in December. Maybe that comes down a touch after his “bad” second half.
I would jump all over that.
A great look at Nichushkin’s value in the Athletic this morning.
https://theathletic.com/3372735/2022/06/19/avalanches-valeri-nichushkin-is-having-himself-a-playoffs-and-earning-himself-a-payday/?source=user_shared_article
In last night’s game he had a CF% of 100 with 13 shits attempts for and 0 against 5V5.
Seems to me this is what Jesse MIGHT become not what he is now.
Those polled in the article suggested a contract in the $5-$6 million range so that raises the question of what is Jesse’s value now?
*shot attempts
Depends on term of course. I doubt his agent would agree to more than two years and probably prefers one. If it is a one year I think it comes in somewhere around $2.25M as a RFA. I know it is a narrative around here that Holland always over pays but I have not seen that with his ELC’s or RFA signings. Where he has the hammer he has mostly used it.
Sounds about right.
Totally agree aside from who has the hammer this summer. Holland sort of has it, but not nearly to the same extent as he did previously due to Puljujarvi’s arbitration rights.
Holland can’t force Puljujarvi to play for $2.25M or sit. Puljujarvi can force other options that are highly likely to get him a larger contract than that for 22-23.
Yes, of course, but as I said a couple of days ago that is why Holland’s decision will depend on Puljujarvi’s agent’s ask. If the ask is too high or arbitration is likely then a trade becomes the focus. Puljujarvi is not a ‘never trade’ kind of player nor is he a ‘throw in’.
In spite of overwhelming historical evidence the Oilers are allowed to win trades from time to time. 😉
Yes, agreed (though I think Puljujarvi and his agent agreeing to $2.25M is fairly unlikely – a higher number, or a trade, are more likely outcomes IMO).
Could be. I think $2.25 is close to the number that keeps him in Edmonton and agree that if it is going higher or risking arb that makes him a trade candidate. Anderson doesn’t excite me but, of course, the devil is in the details. As somebody here mentioned we are into the crazy rumour season now but I don’t expect anything like this to come down before free agency or the draft so lots of time.
Yeah maybe. Hopefully. We’ll see what his next deal comes in at (with the Oilers or elsewhere). My guess is an arbitration number would me more in the $3M range, and that his camp will expect that to forego arbitration.
In terms of a trade, there should be lots of options other than Anderson that would make more sense.
Yes, Puljujarvi is a good player, and he does have potential to be more. I still wouldn’t pay him $5M x 8, personally.
His scoring over the past 2 seasons is basically exactly 0.5 points per game, which is borderline top 6 production. That’s totally fine if he’s helping others around him be better and his salary isn’t too large.
It’s also possible he can be the player we saw for the first 20 games of last season more consistently. But what actually was over the last 2 seasons is a player who produced like a mediocre 2nd line winger while playing basically 70% of his time next to McDavid.
We basically all like to project further growth from him, but the flip side is actually the same criticism as with Zack Kassian’s extension. What if he doesn’t stay on McDavid’s wing?
Puljujarvi is clearly a better overall hockey player than Kassian, and more likely to remain in the top 6, but Puljujarvi has also scored only 1.16 points/60 when he’s not playing with McDavid. That’s with Draisaitl (200 min), Nuge (126 min), McLeod (98) and Turris (56 min) as his centers, so lots of quality minutes even when away from McDavid.
He’s also been a 52% shot, 51% goal, 57% xGoal player without McDavid, so definitely quite useful, but I’m not convinced on $5M x 8.
The upside is Oct/Nov’s Bison King. The downside is a break even 30-something points 3rd liner. I’m honestly not sure enough which he is to make the $5M x 8 bet, and I don’t believe he’s a $5M player today (especially when he be signed or arbitrated something in the $3M range in the mean time).
It’s really hard to do anything when 1) you’re playing less than 10 min on average in the playoffs, 2) not on special teams anymore….
1) is untrue, as I’ve mentioned to you previously (and beyond that, including Puljujarvi’s playoff performance definitely doesn’t help his case at all)
2) Puljujarvi played 44 minutes per game on the PP under Woodcroft, which is fairly reasonable for a guy who was in the midst of a prolonged slump (37 4-9-13, going back to before Woodcroft was hired, and he played more than 16 minutes a game during that time).
How many playoff games did he have over 16 min?
How many games did he miss altogether? 15?
I don’t know either of those things off hand. You’re welcome to look them up and let us know.
Oh man, it must be a bit dusty in here. My eyes are watering. Thanks LT, and Happy Fathers Day.
For us older fathers, it’s watching the US open and pros looking like amateurs hacking out of the rough.Getting to cheer for a Canadian in contention is a nice bonus.
The US Open is very polarizing.
I hate watching the best players in the world subjected to perfectly struck shots not stopping, guessing on four-footers, and hacking out of gimmicky rough inches from a green.
It would be like taking delight in hockey players mucking about in slush unable to make a pass.
Masters Sunday over US Open Sunday every single time. Birdies over bogeys. Horse races over seeing who doesn’t fall apart.
Yes the big bomb hitters don’t do very well here.
On the contrary – power gets your iron swing through the rough. And those guys can keep generating at least some spin. Bryson being the most extreme example of that in recent years.
Many bigs near the top. Scheffler should get it done unless his ball sits down in the gunk a couple too many times.
Masters top 3 scores -10, -7, -5. Lots of balls spinning off the green and into the water.
US Open, -6, -5, -5. I would say those are pretty comparable scores. Both fun tournaments to watch. Oh and DeChambeau, +13, he just wouldn’t learn to quit trying to bomb it.
“I’m pretty sure Jay Woodcroft is going to coach the Oilers. It would be a monumental collapse if it doesn’t occur but I don’t think they are there yet. As someone said to me, the pace of the negotiation is crawling. They will get there but just aren’t there yet!”
Happy Fathers Day, LT. It’s been almost thirty years since my dad passed on as well. It’s a hole that never really gets filled up again.
Does anyone else feel a little better about the Oilers efforts against Colorado after watching Tampa? Edmonton certainly matched the speed of Colorado better than the Lightning are. Some solidifying on the backend along with youthful improvement should have the team ready to be a serious contender.
It would be interesting to see the Avalanche record in the second home game of a series over the years. A few days in the thin mountain air seems to be a killer on other team.
I have no interest in Josh Anderson unless Montreal retains half. Sending a Holloway or Bourgault would be batshit crazy in my estimation.
If the Oilers simply trust their youth to further develop,(JP,Yamo,McLeod, Broberg, Bouchard) add a RD with bite, maybe look into a Burakovsky type winger, and add a decent netminder(Husso) to get them to the deadline, they will be more than fine.
Josh Andrrson is a 28 yr old power forward who has played 1 full season???
I will be dissappointed if edm brings him in due to the reality he will be injured at some point.
He’s played 3 full seasons (of 6) FWIW, unless you hold the pandemic against him.
Otherwise, yeah.
He is injury prone and overpaid. Now, if Montreal offered to pay half the salary, I would consider it but not for any young prospects.
Yes, if the Habs retain close to $2MM then the contract has negative value and, given the excess years, not even sending Kass the other way helps with the term issue.
Not even is Anderson an injury risk (all players are but he does have a history), he’s not really all that good when healthy.
Chad Kilger, Brad Isbister, Josh Green – big, fast, good shot, etc. – the whole is less than the sum of its parts.
Concur:)
Happy Father’s Day LT.
30 years since your Dad passed – where does the time go? Sounds like you are a Great Dad to your kids. ENJOY YOUR DAY
Our FATHERS DAY TRADITION is an afternoon at the Horse Races. Me, wifey and the 3 kids watch the horses warm up and pretend we know something. We all pick our favorite Horse – usually based on their color or their saddle blanket color (very strategic 🤣) and then I go bet $2 on everyone’s pick. We never win or lose too much; but we always remember the day 🙂
I have to work today, and right through until the 29th. I won’t see my kids much today. My youngest traded one of his favourite Pokemon cards for a Joe Thornton hockey card because he thinks I like hockey, so Jumbo Joe is my new book mark, an honoured position.
I work until the 29th, until I leave work, go to the IGA and pick up my parents who I haven’t seen in 4 years.
Canada Day with family is gonna be lit.
Hug your kids. Hug the people that decided against all odds that you would be a passable father to their children.
Have a nice day.
Everyone who plays with McDavid gets a bump (even Ty Rattie’s dad could score with him). That said, Evander Kane’s on-ice track record seems quite a bit better than Anderson’s. He’s definitely the right “type”, but does he justify 5×5 versus, say 6×5 for Kane. The name David Clarkson keeps ringing in my ears.
I suppose if you believe Kane’s number starts with a $5. I think it’s higher than that.
No $6M x 5 years
Happy Father’s Day all!
Speaking of old men (first time I’ve made this joke), it would behoove Holland to get Bouch on a Klefbom like contract in advance this summer.
Bouch is going to put up 65+ points next season.