More Than This

by Lowetide

At what point in the future do you think Xavier Bourgault will force his way on to a scoring line with the Edmonton Oilers? Jordan Eberle did it at 20, Leon Draisaitl four days after turning 20. Kailer Yamamoto? It was gradual, when he was 22 the young winger was on his way to his first 20-goal season of his career. So, what’s your guess? When will Bourgault emerge as a true scoring winger in the NHL?

THE ATHLETIC!

BOURGAULT’S PROGRESS

This is goals-per-game and points-per-game in each year of a prospect’s development. Jordan Eberle went to the NHL right out of junior, Yamamoto had a couple of false starts and Raphael Lavoie hasn’t been able to establish himself as a true NHL prospect while playing in Bakersfield.

Bourgault has the best draft +1 numbers, and there’s a lot to like about him. One thing an observer should always do with junior numbers (this was established by Dellow) is check on the percentage of points that come from the power play. There’s no specific line in the sand, but you don’t want to reach Rob Schremp levels. Here are an assorted group of QMJHL forwards over a 20-year period, along with Schremp, and Bourgualt’s numbers suggest there isn’t anything close to Schremp level reliance on the power play.

This is sorted by percentage of even-strength points, and each of these seasons is the final junior campaign for each player. Bourgault’s closest comparable in the group is Hemsky, which is a great sign. Now, Hemsky was younger (18 years, 1 month and 19 days on October 1, 2001. That was the beginning of his final QMJHL season) and Bourgault (18 years, 11 months, 10 days on October 1, 2021) was also at the beginning of his fourth Q season, Hemsky his second.

I’m not an expert on the numbers, but would suggest Bourgault is a substantial offensive prospect. That doesn’t mean he’s going to win rookie of the year, and it’s likely he spends much or all of the season in Bakersfield. It’s also true that if the Oilers are open to dealing prospect forwards, Bourgault might be the ask in trade.

LAVOIE IN THE AHL

I was looking at Raphael Lavoie’s AHL season and contemplated writing about him for The Athletic. That may still happen, but one of the things I was curious about was even-strength scoring among Condors forwards. Not all young prospects get power-play time, and sometimes they get the 5×4 but don’t get much done there. Here’s the same look above, but applied to the AHL prospects forwards in 2021-22.

Lavoie did get PP time (Eric Rodgers’ estimate has him at about 15 minutes for the year) but he would be a candidate for a role on the 5×4 in 2022-23. Dylan Holloway flourished with the man advantage (Rodgers’ estimate: 1:47 per game) and Broberg, too (2:25 says Rodgers). I think these numbers tell us what we already know: Holloway and Broberg are the most talented in the system. I will say Holloway’s even-strength points were surely impacted by the quality of his linemates. I will leave it at that.

LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON

A busy show on the way, and hopefully some Jay Woodcroft news to pass along between 10 and 2, on TSN1260. We’ll have several guests, have confirmed Justin Dunk from 3DownNation at 10:20, Darren Dreger at 1 and more to come. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Here we go! Loud noises straight ahead!

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kelvjn

The Oilers run McDavid, Draisatl, and RHN on PP, so the only open spot is net front/ puck retrieval. A smallish forward will not get much PP time unless he can take RHN’s lunch money and spot, unless the guy is Ryan Smyth tough(eventhough Smyth was averae sized at the time rather than Eberle smallish).

Without PP, the high marker for s skilled player would be 30~40 EV points a year, which is what 4rd and 5th ranked Hyman and Pulujarvi gets mostly playing with either McDavid or Draisatl. Still a lot better than the next tier, which would be the 20~30 EV points the more defensively deployed RHN, Yamamoto, Foegele and Ryan have.

Therefore, it is definitely a lot more difficult for a smallish player to break into the Oilers roster and be established as a skilled player like Eberle did (who was greatly “aided” by the 2010~2011 injury plague that left the top 5 ranked Oilers F including Hemsky and Penner 39~43 points with no more than 69 games played).

Be it Bourgault or Kuzmenko.

leadfarmer

The Avs are so cheap. They have so much skill and should be such a treat but it’s like watching 22 Corey Perry’s and one Makar

hunter1909

Tampa play like the dynasty Oilers.

Keep everything simple stupid, ha ha Avs look rattled

They find their parade making a wrong turn.

hunter1909

7:30 left 6-2 Tampa Bay

Tampa have the Avs looking like 98 pound weaklings

I had them repeating for a 3 X Dynasty and a 4X one for Maroon.

Reminds me of game 6 from the 2006 Finals. Tampa has every chance to take this series.

Last edited 2 years ago by hunter1909
leadfarmer

Friedman reporting Carolina allowing Bear to look for a new home and are not close on contract negotiations

defmn

Clue to what led Holland to trade him last summer?

Munny 2.0

The QO Arb Hammer situation was always going to be a problem, I think, as it always is for middling prosepcts or for players that show early but lack some sustain.

jp

Wow.

Not entirely residual Covid apparently.

And how much of a raise could he possibly be asking for?

Material Elvis

He must have a top drawer agent, what with all the late season and playoff healthy scratches this year.

106 and 106

Heard he wants more time on ice and Carolina is too good to need him more than spot duty.

OriginalPouzar

His coach deemed Ian Cole and Brendan Smith more deserving of ice in the playoffs……. Yes, I know he had a procedure after the season and wasn’t completely healthy but there isn’t any indication it wasn’t something he could have, or was’t willing willing to, play through.

I would be happy with him as 3RD behind Ceci and Bouch but not sure there would be enough cap savings from Barrie.

leadfarmer

If they can’t sign Deangelo I’d trade them Barrie for him and a pick as long as he signs for decent price. Would be more than ok behind Ceci and Bouchard

Material Elvis

He’s too slow. The Oilers need more speed on defense. Barrie to Bear is a downgrade.

Reja

When’s the last time a player was traded then traded back to the same team a year later. I can’t think of player in the last century where this has happened.

Diablo

Said it all season long that Bear would not be tendered a QO by the Canes. He’s too small and too slow, and does not have the high end skill needed to be a top 4 defenseman on any team that wants to advance to the final 4 and beyond. Nice kid, good story and he can play in the league … but on a third pairing.

Reja

Bear was not a rental unless l’m missing something.

leadfarmer

If signing kuzmenko meant giving him those promises of top 6 time and top pp time I’d rather pass. A very good last season but all prior were very much meh

Material Elvis

I don’t understand how those promises can be enforced. If the coach thinks that there are better PP and top six options, you are going to be demoted. He still needs to earn those minutes no matter what was said at a restaurant in Detroit in the summer.

OriginalPouzar

It would be great in new Canuck management made ice time and linemate promises to a 26 European free agent. The player may live up to, and earn, that ice in the normal course but, presuming some learning curve/struggles/etc. I hope the coach gifts top 6 and PP minutes or is forced to show the hockey world the GM will make empty promises – no doubt Millstein would be loud if that happens.

And, yes, I was expressly against Holland making any sort of ice time/deployment promises – opportunity to earn minutes, of course.

Material Elvis

I hope they made and keep those promises, too. The highest number of regular season games he’s played is 58. Those top 6 minutes for potentially 24 additional end-of-season NHL games are going to be an eye opener for the guy. We’ll see how he handles the grind.

Bank Shot

They can’t be enforced, but if you make the promises and don’t follow through you could potentially hurt your reputation with agents and players.

OriginalPouzar

Speaking of all those high-end prospects in the Kings’ org, Vladimir Tkachev has signed with Avansgard in the KHL.

I query the definition of “high end”…..?

Ranford.85

Hah! You can add it the long list of other such nonsense, along with this year’s classic “when rubber hits the road”.

leadfarmer

Turcotte is looking like he’s gonna bust. Vilardi looking like a bottom 6
oh my

OriginalPouzar

Yup, he was contained on lists of such propsects.

leadfarmer

Byfield is overrated and I don’t think he will be an impact forward
Turcotte is barely treading water
Vilardi is looking like a 3rd liner
Grans more depth than anything
Clarke looks pretty good though
Ive had that team as very overrated prospect wise for some time

Reja

I don’t see Byfield scoring more than 20 consistently. There’s 10 players that I would choose above him in a redraft of 2020.

OriginalPouzar

Byfield doesn’t even turn 20 until later this summer – he’s going to be a monster.

Munny 2.0

Agreed. I don’t know if he’s tracking Barkov level, and no one ever takes the same path regardless, but he is at the very least J. Staal, IMO, and probably comes in second line under the meat of his bell curve of potential.

Material Elvis

Tkachev was high end….in Penticton.

LostBoy

Heh, yeh. At the Young Stars and training camp the year of his NHL contract that wasn’t (not the only Oilers basic CBA literacy oopsie we’ve ever seen), he played all the time with Bogdan Yakimov and they looked like assassins, this midget who had a skating stride that looked so much like Hemsky and this big lanky giant. They were some odd couple.

godot10

Not for Broberg, Holloway, and Bourgault….that would be unwise.

Harpers Hair

Tkachev was always a shot in the dark…I don’t think anyone said otherwise.

Byfield is still 19…an age at which most prospects are still in junior or just starting a NCAA career.

You’ve identified several players who are very likely to have NHL careers but there are more.

Samuel Fagemo – 27 goals in the AHL

Martin Chromiak – 46 goals and 86 points in the OHL

You mentioned Spence but worth noting Mikey Anderson, Sean Durzi and Jacob Moverare who are all getting NHL minutes are only 23.

And, in an interesting quirk, the Kings have too many RD.

Doughty
Walker
Roy
Spence
Durzi
Grans
Clarke
Stetcher

Seems to me they may have some significant trade capital there.

Bank Shot

Most of those D are borderline NHLers at best.

Quantity does not equal quality.

Diablo

I’d rather have Bourgault, Holloway and Broberg.

Byfield is going to bust hard.

Munny 2.0

It would take something extraordinary for Bourgault to make varsity out of camp.

Getting called up and sticking mid-season is much more likely. That said, he’s got to have a productive off-season and he needs to re-establish his health/durability, and put the time in and listen to his new coaches, and build some confidence… yadda yadda yadda.

The talent is there. The brains are there. All that remains to be seen are his work ethic and determination.

We wait…

Ryan

The first thing about Bourgault is that he has a really high-end hockey IQ.

He was impressive in pre-season because he made plays and kept pucks alive.

He’s never going to win the Selke and he doesn’t have good edge work…

He’s not a player that I wouldn’t trade, but the return would have to be the right one.

Material Elvis

There you go again pushing the false narrative that Bourgault can’t win trophies…

Munny 2.0

His smarts impress me every time I see him play. They’re why I’m so high on him.

Anybody that smart can learn the defensive game, IMO. It’s not a huge hill.

Bling

I’m totally fine missing out on Kuzmenko.

I’d rather have a true high end LW (Kane) rather than a middle six type. You already have Nuge, Hyman, Holloway, Foegele, on the left side…do you really need another tweener type? I like Hyman and Nuge, and of course Holloway has upside, but for next season, Kane is the type of high end player you need.

And how’s this for an interesting stat:

The top 3 in old-fashioned plus minus last year:

1 – McDavid +28
2 – Kane +25
3 – JP +22

Might lose two of those three. Sure Kane and JP benefitted playing with 97 but both guys have lots of game.

FabioRoberto

I understand Kane looking for money more than anything else but to part with JP also is a real travesty for me….

OriginalPouzar

I’m also “fine” missing out on Kuzmenko. I’ve been in favor of signing him as a one-year ELC is zero risk but I’ve expressly guarded on his off-season placement in the projected lineup. He could turn out to be a legit complimentary winger in the top 6 or he could turn our to be an NHL tweener. I now hope for the latter.

With that said, I don’t think a Kuzmenko signing would have limited any other forward acquisition. His cap hit would be barely over league min (and performance bonuses hit would not decrease cap space for 2022/23).

Munny 2.0

I never saw a fit between him and the Oilers to tell you the truth.

Bling

We agree twice in two days!? Whoa whoa whoa

leadfarmer

Other than last season Kuzmenkos numbers look pretty meh. Good chance Vancouver regrets those promises as they are likely gonna cost them games

GordieHoweHatTrick

Huh. A little surprised with the Kuzmenko signing in Vancouver. Not paid much attention to this, but one would have thought he could have made his career with his next contract after playing with McDrai a bit…

Now that I am thinking about it, I wonder if KH, the player and agent were speaking frankly about the planned winger situation in Edmonton next year. Viable top 9 wingers available for 6 positions include:

Hyman
Nuge
McLeod
KY
JP 3.0
Foegele
Holloway

Now Nuge and McLeod are likely primarily targeted for C, with a few rips on W. Unless Nuggy is destined to be a full-time winger…
Kass is hopefully playing elsewhere after a trade (and not a buyout please @Gord!!). Kane is a very very remote possibility it would seem…Leaving

Hyman
KY
JP 3.0
Nuge
as top 6 W candidates, and

Foegele
Holloway
as the top L3 W candidates…

So could KH have indicated to Kuzmenko his RFAs are being signed, if he has his way….?

Prolly reading too much into this based on my hopes for KY and JP to stay with the team…although I prefer them both in a “top 9 role” rather than “top 6”

GordieHoweHatTrick

It’s too bad they couldn’t transplant KY’s motor into JPs body.

Durag

Medically they could, but the player’s association would be up in arms.

dustrock

“They mocked me about creating Erikk Lindroos, but who’s laughing now? mwhahahahah”

godot10

There is nothing wrong with Jesse’s motor. It is a optical illusion that little guys are working harder.

Jesse is just another big guy that the clueless label as not working hard. .#FrankMahovlichSyndrome

danny

Kuzmenko is going to be on a show-me contract now as a rookie and will want a good shot at PP1 ice time. His chances of getting that in EDM are precarious. I think that possibly played a big part in his decision.

Harpers Hair

Yep…see my last post.

Harpers Hair

Sounds like Vancouver promised him top 6 minutes and PP time.

The PP makes sense since he’s a right shot and will be playing with left shot finishers.

The top 6 minutes leads me to believe one of JT Miller or Boeser is headed out.

leadfarmer

Got to be Miller.

LostBoy

We’ll see what happens with him – he’s certainly got a way better chance of sweet minutes, espeically PP, in Vancouver than he would have had in Edmonton next season.

Maybe he’ll prove to be something more, but his production history, size, and style all kind of whisper “Dominik Kahun.”

Harpers Hair

Kahun played in the German league which is about 3 levels short of the KHL.

Interesting to note that Kuzmenko and Podkholzin were team mates
in St. Petersburg which should ease the transition to the NHL.

LostBoy

Well, maybe.

But Gusev or Vadim Shipachyov might be the answer, too.

Kahun put up 37 points with not a lot of great deployment when he came over. I think if Kuzmenko manages that next year even with more opportunity, it more than covers the bet. Still probably a not quite skill line tweener at the NHL level. But, like, everyone around here would have been happy to take the bet, too. I mean, who knows, maybe he can really contribute at top six level. That’s what makes it a decent bet.

Harpers Hair

You never know until they do it.

OriginalPouzar

It would be great in new Canuck management made ice time and linemate promises to a 26 European free agent. The player may live up to, and earn, that ice in the normal course but, presuming some learning curve/struggles/etc. I hope the coach gifts top 6 and PP minutes or is forced to show the hockey world the GM will make empty promises – no doubt Millstein would be loud if that happens.

And, yes, I was expressly against Holland making any sort of ice time/deployment promises – opportunity to earn minutes, of course.

YYCOil

Young pros on the Oilers next year.

Woody
Manson
Puljajarvi
Yamamoto
McLeod
Holloway – 55 games
Broberg -70 games
Skinner -35 games
Brougault -35 games

SVR

How long can JP and KY continue to be called young pros? Both have been playing professionally for several years now

OriginalPouzar

Until they are no longer young…. or pros…?

SVR

McDavid, Draisaitl are young pros I guess. Nurse too.

OriginalPouzar

Depends on what you consider young in the NHL – under 25 is generally a fair indicator – your mileage may vary.

jp

Young (old man) Bouchard!!

Munny 2.0

Bouchard can be explained, though. Rumour has it Klaus Schwab is inhabiting his body…

😉

jp

Haha, whatever is going on with Bouch, he needs to be near the top of on any ‘young Oiler pros’ list.

OriginalPouzar

At this point, I kind of want the Avs to just sweep so we can get this done on Wed and get the off-season rolling.

Revolved

I just looked at the Avs playoffs. They have lost the xGF in only three games so far and have an overall average of 59.1%. Against each opponent it’s been: Preds – 59.0, Blues – 58.0, Oilers – 52.8, Lightning – 74.8. Gross.

Last edited 2 years ago by Revolved
danny

I want them to get the win out of the way, so maybe they arent as hungry as a team that lost in the SCF. Added bonus the inflationary effects cup wins have on next contracts. Anything that could soften them a little next season is best outcome.

Last edited 2 years ago by danny
Dr.Donkey

Let’s be honest. Deep down, beyond all else, we want the Avalanche to blow this.

Diablo

Yep – those guys are pricks and this is their best shot before the cap comes to get them. Go Lightning!

OriginalPouzar

Lavoie is going to have to fight with the rookies (Bourgault, Tulio, Savoie, Philp, etc.) for offensive opportunities.

He did not earn them at all with his play last season. Lets not forget, almost the entirety of his production came in one heater – he was a non-factor for LONG stretches before and after that heater.

He’s also coming off season ending knee surgery so that might play in.

Hopefully he can train in addition to rehab.

OriginalPouzar

 I will say Holloway’s even-strength points were surely impacted by the quality of his linemates. I will leave it at that.

100% this is true and its similar to Yamamoto in his AHL stretch where the box-cars under-represent value on the ice. Yamamoto was a scoring chance creation machine, creating chances almost every shift that weren’t cashed by his middle-six AHL linemates.

Holloway isn’t quite the same, while he did create scoring chances that weren’t cashed by his middling linemates, it wasn’t quite at the rate Kailer did (to my memory), however, Holloway, while being material in scoring chance creation, he was elite in puck transport, puck retrieval and, well, chaos creation similar to Puljujarvi/Yamamoto when rolling in the NHL.

OriginalPouzar

Another thing to keep in mind with Bourgault is who is driving the bus, Bourgault or Mavrik Bourque?

From my limited viewings, I don’t think Bourque is carrying Bourgault – I don’t think this is a P. Kane/Sam Gagner situation.

godot10

Sam Gagner has played nearly 1000 games in the NHL.

OriginalPouzar

Yes and, of course, he never became an offensive driver or producer that many expected him to be.

Redbird62

He is 5th in games played and 9th in total points for players drafted in 2007. He was taken 6th overall. That’s a decent use of the pick.

danny

If I remember correctly, the temperature around that draft was fans/media picking Gagner, stats guys weary of the London effect were on the Voracek train, and everyone was hoping Turris would slip. All while lamenting winning the game that lost the lottery slot.

danny

I believe Dave Gagner said his son could be a fast turtle.

dessert1111

I think OP’s point about his junior teammate driving the bus offensively still stands.

Although I wouldn’t call Gagner a bust, I think he’s likely to slip from both of those numbers by the time that draft year is all done playing, not to mention that Gagner has had below average defensive value at the NHL level. Without digging too much my guess is he’d go mid first round in a re draft, 10 to 15 spots lower. Not a disaster, but you hope for more for 6th overall.

godot10

He is not likely to slip out of the top ten in games played or points.

Plus he had the misfortune of joining the Oilers just as Lowe and MacT went on tilt from losing the Stanley Cup final.

OriginalPouzar

It was a fine pick and Gagner is having a very nice career.

The point is simply that his junior production was clearly driven by Kane and the question is who is the driver as between Bourque and Bourgault.

Material Elvis

Gagner would likely have put up big numbers in junior hockey playing on any team. Kane was a junior hockey phenom but Gagner was still really good in his own right. Many people dinged Matthew Tkachuk when he was putting up big numbers next to Mitch Marner in London, too. Sometimes there are two or more “drivers” on a junior team.

OriginalPouzar

Sure, maybe, I don’t know.

I do know that, while he is still having a very nice NHL career, he was never an offensive driver or big numbers guy at the NHL level – a 40-49 point guy in his prime – one season where he hit 50 (on the nose).

Hey, if Bourgault has a Gagner career, we should not complain at all. I do “hope” for more offence and I have no idea if that will come or not.

Revolved

I hope this team is too mature to rely on Bourgault to show up this year. I expect he will play in the NHL, but would be surprised if it was more than 20 games. If everything goes to plan he would be a full time NHLer draft+4. I expect it is not a popular suggestion, but I think even Holloway will only split this season between the NHL and AHL.

The team has put itself in a position where they need Broberg to be ready the year after next, so he will likely get the most rope, but I hope it at least stays with lots of 7/11.

Last edited 2 years ago by Revolved
godot10

Real NHL talent spends very little time in the AHL, unless the NHL team is loaded and a contender.

The Oilers have Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, Kassian, and Ryan ahead of Bourgault. i.e. all flawed to a lesser or far greater degree. Although two can keep up in a top six role, none are remotely ideal top six players yet.

Revolved

I agree with this and hope that Holloway and Bougault kick the door down. That said, I think it will take time for them to be trusted enough to be on the team full time. I think defensive responsibility and consistency will take time to develop.

OriginalPouzar

At what point in the future do you think Xavier Bourgault will force his way on to a scoring line with the Edmonton Oilers?

I know he looked great at camp last fall and has had a hell of a draft plus 1 season (and playoff) in the Q.

With that said, I would be surprised if he doesn’t start the season in Bakersfield. I presume he’s going to show well in camp again this season, higher end skilled forwards almost always do – but regular season is a different beast, which, of course, we see yearly.

Unlike the likes of Savoie, Tulio, Petrov (if he isn’t back in the OHL), who I expect to have up and down AHL seasons, with struggle, I do expect Bourgault to have a very strong start to the AHL season and very well could be in the conversation for a mid-season call-up.

As far as “scoring line”, I have no idea and I’m not positive that he will ever be an every day top 6 guy. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t know that he won’t get there but there are many higher end junior players of his ilk that become strong middle six NHL players. That may be Bourgault and, if it is, no problem, that’s a great player.

Of course, he very well may become a top 6 guy – time will tell.

Jethro Tull

Kuzmenko? After this season, I don’t think I’ve ever been so “meh” about a potential off season aquisition.

Jethro Tull

I take it the “-1” guy is the person who thinks either Kuzmenko is an adequate replacement for Kane or the piece that puts us over the edge.

Maybe he is/was? Maybe he’s going to go supernova in Pyloncouver.

I’m just saying that after the emotional rollercoaster of this year, an overaged KHLer seems like small potatoes.

PinkSocks

Kuzmenko = Gusev

PinkSocks

But if he signed with Oil he would have been Panarin.

jp

The difference is just QoT.

OriginalPouzar

Gusev has 44 points in 60 something games in his first NHL season…..

Benign Bone

Kuzmenko appears to have signed with the Canucks.

OriginalPouzar

Ya, no surprise here. All the intel seemed to be trending this way.

Harpers Hair

Cue the “this is the worst signing ever” posts.

DevilsLettuce

It’s a great 1 year signing for the player, he’ll end up with cherry minutes with not much internal competition.

And for a team that will most likely end up in lottery contention it’s a nice lil pick up to keep the hopes up for a few fans. Congrats Vancouver 👏👏

Cue your posts where this will lead to Vancouver finishing ahead of the Oilers in standings yet again lol.

Side

Kuzmenko will now be hyped up to Brogan Rafferty levels.

Ranford.85

No no, we tend not to stoop as low as you do.

Last edited 2 years ago by Ranford.85
McNuge93

Those will be on the Canucks sites, not here.

Side

Your mantra is:

“Accuse others of what you are guilty of”

Side

He really does follow the same playbook.

Especially the play where he’s wrong about something and instead of admitting it, he plays a victim to the “angry mob” who take the time to correct him.

Mayan Oil

One solitary downvote. Guess you’re on an island there, HH.

Material Elvis

Newsflash: we don’t care who Vancouver signs. They’re going to be cannon fodder for the Oilers next season.

Harpers Hair

According to Rick Dhaliwal, this was pretty much a done deal last week.

Both Bruce Boudreau and Patrick Alvin drove many hours to Michigan to meet with Kuzmenko and his agent.

He says the rest of the trip was merely a formality.

buck yoakam

omg…I can just picture planes trains and automobiles…ha! maybe bruce had a accordion with him also…

Material Elvis

Why wouldn’t they fly? Must be a weird Canucks thing.

flyfish1168

I don’t mind teams asking for our top prospects. But we don’t have the depth and we need them to flourish to help with CAP control. I would not be trading them unless we are getting someone significant and proven that is under control for at least 3 years

Last edited 2 years ago by flyfish1168
Oil2Oilers

Quality of line mates and role on the team has been a challenge at the NHL level as much as at the AHL level for the Oilers.

Think Hall, Nuge, Eberle having to carry the team on the top lines early in their careers. Or the boat anchors Yakopov or Puljujarvi had to drag around.

Bourgault could (but won’t because Holland) play in the NHL this October as a 20 year old. On a third line with Nuge and McLeod, two defensively responsible players that can also play with offensive talent. More over Ryan could move up to take his spot on the line during defensive zone faceoffs.

Such a role would maximize the value of Bourgault’s rookie contract, and will absolutely not happen because paying your dues in the AHL has mythical properties.

PennersPancakes

Wouldnt this be a better game plan for Holloway? If the Oilers play both in your example that means Holloway is top 6 or 4th line. Not saying its impossible, Mercer had the same timeline and put up good points this season (while also being on ice for a lot of goals against). Just remain skeptical a contending team would want two rookies in their middle 6 at least to start the season.

You are definitely right though concerning line mates/expectations, Oilers have way better line mates for their young guys then even a couple years ago. Maybe a Holloway Drai Yamamoto line would work nicely.

I remain skeptical to say this is certainly better value for Bourgaults contract. Is starting Bourgaults 3 years of ELC more impact at ages 19-21 than 20-22? I dont think its as much of paying your dues but more so proving you can adjust from playing 16 year olds to playing professional grown men.

godot10

Bourgault is the perfect fit for Hyman and Draisaitl.

Yamamoto will be a much more productive player for the Oilers on the 3rd line.

OriginalPouzar

…….in time, right?

godot10

January, if not October.

defmn

January for me. Just the way it looks to me but if I am Holland I see ’23-’24 as the season he is getting ready for to go all the way.

That means getting Broberg, Holloway and Bourgault meaningful time this coming season.

Last edited 2 years ago by defmn
OriginalPouzar

Seems aggressive.

Bourgault may very well pass Yamamoto as far as offensive production and ability to influence offensive zone sorties at the NHL level but it seems highly aggressive to posit that he’ll be there 3 months in to, let alone the start of, his rookie pro season.

jp

You don’t actually believe Yamamoto will be more productive on the 3rd line than the 1st/2nd, do you?

Last edited 2 years ago by jp
Randle McMurphy

JoJoNoShow said below: “I’m surprised how far the Winnipeg boys have fallen in the last couple months. (Geekie and Savoie).”

Paraphrasing LT from yesterday “there are a lot of available Dmen in the first round and they are hard to separate”

This sounds like a good thing if the Oilers are in the mood to either trade down or trade the pick for other reasons. This indicates that there is a reasonable probability that one or more teams will have a ‘target” on their list that falls to 29th.

Last edited 2 years ago by Randle McMurphy
Pretendergast

If by some miracle Savoie is in range by an Oiler pick I trade up and sprint to the podium. I think he’ll take 1 more year of junior then be straight to the NHL.

However, if a prospect of quality is in range I expect the Canucks to take him because that’s just what they do, like they did with Pettersson.

Never been a fan of Geekie’s game. Just because all the tools say NHL player doesn’t mean you get one. For that level of player i take him 2nd round and hope he figures it out.

OriginalPouzar

I’ve heard a couple accounts of a massive third tier in the draft that goes from apx pick 20 to 60 with little to choose in that tier.

Randle McMurphy

How will Bourgault do?

He’s proved himself in the Q.

He now has two huge hurdles to clear Performing in the AHL then performing in the NHL.

How well he does and how soon he arrives is mainly contingent on 4 things imo

How hard does he work? (is he a gym rat and a rink rat)

How badly does he want it? ( will he miss home, miss his girlfriend, etc)

How coachable is he? (how quickly does he learn and adapt, does he value/seek out constructive criticism)

How healthy can he stay? ( lost development time is critical at this age)

If all goes well, he could be a full time scoring winger in the NHL in the second half of 2023-24..imo

That timeline has significant value to the Oilers Cup hopes…. as would what he returns in a trade.

Last edited 2 years ago by Randle McMurphy
FabioRoberto

So why can’t he jump straight to the Oilers if he comes in and has an excellent preseason?

OriginalPouzar

He could but we see year after year after year that great performances by young prospects in camp and exhibition does not equate to NHL readiness. He looked great in camp last year but is there any chance he would have been able to succeed at the NHL level this past season?

Its not really fair but its really tough to prove NHL readiness during training camp.

With a great performance, he could certainly put his name at the top of the list for a call-up.

teamblue

Because he had a good pre-season last year, if he has a great pre-season this year again, I’d bet on him getting his 9 game look-see. Others will talk about pre-season not proving readiness, but it can, if you know what you’re looking for. A coach knows what to look for, and he can show he’s ready in pre-season.

OriginalPouzar

There is no relevance to “9 games”, Bourgault’s ELC is not subject to slide next season. His first year will vest even if he doesn’t play 10 NHL games.

Harpers Hair

Friedman and Marek reporting DeBoer will be the next coach in Dallas.

godot10

The guy clearly interviews well.

Harpers Hair
Tarkus

He really likes Snuggerud, Firkus, Kemell.

Faded Savoie, Geekie, Lambert.

Can’t say Button doesn’t have the courage of his convictions.

Tarkus

I suspect The Bourg gets a full season in the A, even if he tears the cover off the ball. Ready for prime time in fall of 2023.

I’ll take a look today, but maybe there will be a prospect that stands out as an athlete with decent splits.

I wonder whether Ty Nelson might be a consideration if he lasts to #29 (if EDM stays there):

  • Pronman has Nelson listed as one of the best skaters in the draft. Checks off a box for Wright & Co. Hard shot too.
  • RH d-man who can QB a power play, perhaps a mini-Bouch in time?
  • Listed as only 5’10” but built like a fire hydrant at almost 200 lbs.
  • Teammate of a current Oiler prospect (Matvey Petrov), so would imagine the Oilers scouts have a good book on him already.
jojonoshow

Tarkus! Great thought. Especially as a North Bay boy. Great skater. Built like a brick.

jojonoshow

I’m surprised how far the Winnipeg boys have fallen in the last couple months. (Geekie and Savoie). Geekie is on the list for athletic forwards.
howard is another fire hydrant with a knack for being in the right place at the right time. Could be a good cheap shooter for McDiesel. (Or a maroon type player who gets inside and drives the far post for mcdavid to bank passes off the skates into the net).

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

Kinda surprised that nobody is talking about the obvious follow-up trade to Keith.

JP + Sammy/Niemel/Lavoie + 2022 1st for DeBrincat

Swap Yamo for JP if you must. Hell include them both if you have to.

Steep price to pay for a guy they could have had for free but whatever. 40 goal scorer heading to prime time age wise that dramatically ups the talent level of the core. Go for it. Next contract needs to keep him under $8 million, with max term I bet you could get him closer to $7.5 on the Oilers. Better to make right now than worry later.

That trade leaves the d-cupboard a bit bare but I wouldn’t worry too much. You have your Big Three locked up for eternity (Nurse, Bouch, Broberg) and you’ll be able to patchwork lower level dmen in over time.

Make it happen Ken, make it happen.

Diablo

If they don’t get Evander Kane back but can get The Russian signed, then I could see this happening. But is Chicago really going to deal Debrincat? … I’ve always assumed it would be Patrick Kane and Toews out the door to kick start their rebuild.

Bruce McCurdy

DeBrincat has a year left on his bridge deal, with a qualifying platform set at $9 million. Careful what you wish for.

FabioRoberto

In your opinion, is DeBrincat worth 9 mil per year?

Harpers Hair

Since he is only 24, his next contract will be paying him for his peak years.

Harpers Hair

Have seen speculation that DeBrincat may end up in Los Angeles.

A sniper is exactly what they need and lord knows they have the prospect depth to pull it off.

Chicago is also without a 1st round pick in the upcoming draft which LA could trade.

A DeBrincat extension would also come at the same time Quick comes off the books.

godot10

That is an awful lot for one year of DeBrincat, since he has to be qualified at $9 million.

Plus Bourgault is probably a more productive fit as soon as January.

Last edited 2 years ago by godot10
OriginalPouzar

I agree that the trade may not work for the Oilers but are you positing that Bourgault will be more productive than DeBrincat this season?

My goodness, its a stretch to think that Bourgault will ever come close to DeBrincat’s production let alone in his draft plus 2/rookie pro campaign.

jp

I will say Holloway’s even-strength points were surely impacted by the quality of his linemates. I will leave it at that.

If I could add.. I think it shines some positive light on Lavoie and his disappointing season, since he was also ‘impacted by quality of linemates’, I believe.

OriginalPouzar

Good and valid point but, at the same time, Holloway found a way to impact each and every game and, many times, each and every shift.

Lavoie was non-existant for games on end.

jp

Absolutely, but he did score basically 0.5 EV points/game (considerably better than Holloway, with pretty similar quality of linemates).

Seeing that essentially all of Lavoie’s points came at even strength indicates a stronger (if inconsistent) season than is obvious from his surface numbers.

OriginalPouzar

Well, from watching those games, I would posit a weaker season that is obvious from his numbers.

jp

Ha. Alright then.

jp

104 points on the PP? In one season? You have to be joking?!? (I didn’t realize that)

Bruce McCurdy

That London Knights powerplay was a 4-ring circus, & Robbie Schremp was the ringmaster.

jojonoshow

Both Broberg and Holloway were the physical specimen of their age groups, and holloway had great splits.
I’ll take a look today, but maybe there will be a prospect that stands out as an athlete with decent splits.

The bourg wasn’t particularly anything but talented, and I think wright took over for the Holloway pick, so obviously I’m reading tea leaves. Reading tea leaves is a kind of exercise that comes in mid June. We’ll see if my theory has an predictive power regarding scouts/mgmt preference.