Woodcroft’s Oilers and the next three years

by Lowetide

The Edmonton Oilers took one giant leap forward yesterday, in hiring Jay Woodcroft. The daunting Rubik’s Cube that is the Edmonton Oilers has been unsolvable since Craig MacTavish’s “too long at the fair” speech.

THE ATHLETIC!

WOODCROFT’S CONDORS/OILERS

I’m wondering how many Condors will make it on the opening night roster for the Oilers this fall. Goaltender Stuart Skinner is the likely backup, and on defense the top six probably houses Evan Bouchard and Philip Broberg. Up front, Ryan McLeod will be somewhere, Kailer Yamamoto too. I think Dylan Holloway has a chance.

WOODCROFT’S BLUE

We have plenty of time to look at this, but the way Woodcroft/Manson handled the blue from February 11 to the end of the regular season was fascinating. Here are Puck IQ’s numbers versus elites under the new coaching staff

  • Darnell Nurse: 309 minutes, 53.5DFF%; 4.72 DFF%RC; 64.3% Goals
  • Cody Ceci: 294 minutes, 52.5DFF%; 3.29 DFF%RC; 37.5% Goals
  • Evan Bouchard: 124 minutes, 50.4DFF%; -.52DFF%RC; 71.4% Goals
  • Tyson Barrie: 122 minutes; 46.5DFF%; -5.03DFF%RC; 77.8% Goals
  • Duncan Keith: 114 minutes, 46.0DFF%; -1.88DFF%RC; 80% Goals
  • Brett Kulak: 57 minutes, 56.6DFF%; 7.10DFF%RC; 40% Goals
  • Kris Russell: 39 minutes, 40.8DFF%; -6.4DFF%RC; 33% Goals
  • William Lagesson: 36 minutes, 52.5%DFF; 4.74 DFF%RC; 50% Goals
  • Markus Niemelainen: 23 minutes, 35.6%DFF; -12.38DFF%RC; 0-2 Goals
  • Philip Broberg: 23 minutes, 57.4%DFF; 6.13DFF%RC; 2-1 Goals

This is striking, even after witnessing it and spending time in the spring staring at these numbers. Job well done by the coaching staff, but from a management point of view this is the coaching staff screaming at you in regard to the second pair.

WOODCROFT AS COACH

I’d like to suggest we give the new coach and his staff the entire regular season before raining down blows for over-playing Archibald or staying with Nurse. I know second-guessing the coach is fun, hell I do it all the time, but this season he’ll have more control over his roster and by the playoffs we should see what he can bring.

REWRITING HISTORY

I’m reading here and there about Kailer Yamamoto’s strong finish, and Jesse Puljujarvi’s poor play in the second half of the year. Every summer there’s an attempt to reshape history to fit what comes next, and it’s important to resist. Here are the regular season numbers under Jay Woodcroft for Edmonton’s skill forwards:

This is reality. Puljujarvi’s goals-per-60 are the lowest in the group, his points-per-60 ranks No. 5 among six forwards and he delivered the highest goal share. You can frame issues any way you want, but JP is an effective player who earned a raise. If Edmonton trades him, last summer’s Duncan Keith trade will have been a cause of the deal. I said it at the time, and it remains true. Proper cap management still eludes the Oilers.

MCDAVID WINS ONE AWARD

Connor McDavid won his ninth major award last night, and his fourth Art Ross Trophy. The big story is Auston Matthews, who won the Hart Trophy and the Ted Lindsay Award. I have two thoughts on the matter.

Auston Matthews scored 60 goals last season, that’s an enormous total. McDavid’s 123 points led the league, and I would have voted for 97, but there’s no doubt at all that Matthews earned strong consideration. I know the fact that Matthews is a Toronto Maple Leafs player will inspire howls of favouritism, but the last TML to win the award was Teeder Kennedy in 1955. Babe Pratt also won in 1944.

My second point is that McDavid won two Hart and three Lindsay awards in past seasons, and there is evidence of fatigue by voters. Bobby Orr won the Hart three times, and the Lester B. Pearson just once (that was the name of the Lindsay award back then) in his incredible career.

As well, knowing McDavid this will drive him to new heights of achievement. Voters vote and sometimes they get it wrong and often it’s close. I can see a writer, with no malice in his heart, thinking this might be Matthews only chance to win it, and then proceeding to vote for him. It’s done, we acknowledge the winner and move on. I’m sure all hockey fans agree with me.

LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON

We have a big show today, TSN1260 beginning at 10 this morning. Ken Holland will speak, Jay Woodcroft will be introduced as the new coach of the Oilers, and we’ll parse every word through to 2pm. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal will join us (tentatively 11:25) and we’ll have other guests throughout the four hours to discuss what news may come. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

You may also like

4.4 10 votes
Article Rating
202 Comments
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

That game winner was clearly too many men. Just like Makar’s goal was clearly offside.

Alas over and done with.

Wonder if there will be questions at GM and Competition committee meetings?

Neumann

Matthews is full value for the Hart Trophy. He had an incredible season. Shesterkin deserves the same honour for an outstanding season, very worthy of his finishing in the top 3. The real shocker is the 5 voters who left 97 completely off their ballot.

Bill Hoppe – Olean Times Harold (Kaprizov – Matthews – Josi – Huberdeau – Gaudreau)
Simon-Olivier Lorange – La Presse (Shesterkin – Huberdeau – Gaudreau – Overchkin – Matthews)
Colin Stephenson – Newsday (Matthews – Huberdeau – Gaudreau – Shesterkin – Josi)
Anthony SanFillipo – Crossing Broad (Shesterkin – Kaprizov – Matthews – Huberdeau – Gaudreau)
Seth Rorabaugh – Pittsburgh Tribune Review (Kaprizov – Josi – Shesterkin – Huberdeau – JT Miller)

Along with Seth the voter below also left Matthews off his ballot.

Guillaime Lafrancois La Presse – (Huberdeau – Josi – Kaprizov – Shesterkin – McDavid)

Shesterkin was left off 46 ballots. 

Of the 5 voters who left 97 off their ballots all are based in the east. Two in New York, two in Pennsylvania and one in Montreal.

I don’t know if these voters simply don’t watch hockey games past 10pm EST or if they are just interpreting the definition of the award a certain way.

Ranford.85

Hilarious seeing that Seth fellow vote for JT Miller over Matthews and McDavid! Lol!

AMD

What is the controversy over the last goal? Jon Cooper is not happy

AMD

https://twitter.com/FriedgeHNIC/status/1539821399564591106?cxt=HHwWhIC9qfLZxd4qAAAA

Elliotte Friedman

@FriedgeHNIC

I “think” this is because the Lightning believe COL had too many men on the ice when the winning goal was scored

Joe Smith

@JoeSmithTB
· 14m
Jon Cooper says his “heart breaks for the players” because the winning goal shouldn’t have counted. But he didn’t say why. twitter.com/joesmithtb/sta…

Last edited 2 years ago by AMD
Victoria Oil

At the beginning of the Final, I felt like this was akin to the Islanders and Oilers of the 80’s – just wasn’t certain if it was ’83 or ’84. I think we know now.

Harpers Hair

Yep.

Now the question becomes can Colorado become a dynasty in the cap era?

Harpers Hair

Joe Sakic avoids being fired for another couple of days.

Ice Sage

Kadri’s thumb appears to have healed.
Less shame in the Oilers losing to the champs – now, how do they match them?

Ranford.85

Pick up Manson, Lekhonen and Cogliano at the trade deadline?

Reja

They don’t get by St.Louis without the 3 adds.

FabioRoberto

Go after their free agents

Ice Sage

And ‘IR’ a key player (Landeskog) to allow cap overage in playoffs

Gerta Rauss

LoL

Kadri sends this to game 5 with COL up 3-1

Munny 2.0

and that should do it

Munny 2.0

that same damn Backlund move

Gerta Rauss

I hope COL ends this on Friday

Let’s get on with the off season

Munny 2.0

They should have got a goal out of that initial set of chances

Victoria Oil

The OT felt like a 12 minute powerplay for the Avs.

Munny 2.0

Avs have had their chances this past five minutes or so

Reja

I’ll take Tampa Alex for $500.

Solly

Matthews wins the Hart and Lindsay…what a joke. The media is successfully brainwashing the masses at an alarming rate now.

Do you think McDavid wins the Hart and Lindsay with a measly 60 goals, while Matthews leads the league in scoring by 17 points? Not a chance. Matthews would not only win both awards, but he would then be granted “better than McD/greatest player in the world” status, made a saint, and a federal holiday would be made in his name.

Ok, “measly 60 goals” may be a bit of sour grapes (60 goals is damn good, well done Matthews) on my part…but if you simply switch McD and Matthews jerseys…McDavid’s glory would be 100x what it is now. It’s so sad.

What I am happy about though is exactly as LT said above…by shafting McJesus in the awards…he now has even more fuel to perform next year. – So scoring goals is your specialty hey Auston? See ya next year bud…I am going to take that from you too.

OriginalPouzar

The media is brainwashing the players?

Harpers Hair

A fully healthy Matthews could easily score 70.

He scored 50 in 50 this season.

High bar.

Reja

Dennis Maruk scored 60 goals. How many people on this board have ever heard of him?

Reja

Bossy had 64 Maruk had 60 for third place. Gretzky finished 28 Goals ahead of 2nd place. If Leon would have scored say 3 more Goals and ended up 2 Goals behind Matthews I don’t think they could justify giving the award to Matthews when Connor finished 17 points ahead.

FabioRoberto

I have heard of him also. Was a fine player.

Redbird62

Mario Lemieux scored 50 in 46 in 88/89, won the Art Ross, would have won the Rocket Richard if it existed and won neither the Hart, losing to Gretzky nor the Pearson (now Lindsay), losing to Yzerman. Neither trophy is a goal scoring title – they have a trophy for that just like you said for the Art Ross and for the Conn Smythe.

Harpers Hair

Again…different eras.

Matthews also got Selke Trophy votes.

He is the goods whether you like it or not.

Redbird62

Where did I say I disagreed with Matthews winning the awards?

greenshifter

He deserved the Hart imo. To get Selke votes is a complete joke.

Solly

Blah blah blah…

Did you know McD has a total of 239 career goals to Matthews 259? Surprisingly, the “most prolific goal scorer in hockey right now” only has 20 more career goals than McD.

Yes, Connor has one more year under his belt…but he also has 240 more career points than Matthews. And that number will only increase as years go by. In just one extra year, Connor has 240 more points (I said it twice so it could sink in).

Please tell me again…who’s the best?

leadfarmer

Avs are completely reliant on their pp for their offense

OriginalPouzar

Except for those 7 goals at 5 on 5 through three games in the series…..

leadfarmer

That lucky bounce they just had was first non pp goal in two games

OriginalPouzar

and that’s indicative of the team’s prowess at 5 on 5 – less than two games?

Pretendergast

you’re right, your 3 game example is way better.

OriginalPouzar

OK, how about the full playoff sample where the Avs have scored goals at 5 on 5 at the second highest rate (Oilers highest) or the 82 game regular season sample where they scored the 5th most goals (and 4th highest rate of goals) at 5 on 5?

I’m thinking a 5-6 period stretch isn’t quite determinative of a blanket statement.

Redbird62

Where did Leadfarmer specify the time span over which he believed his statement to apply? Your the one making sweeping assumption here.

OriginalPouzar

1) given how high end they are at 5 on 5, during the playoffs and during the regular season, the statement only makes sense if its related to the very recent times; and

2) ummm, right in this thread he said so.

Redbird62

i think you missed my point. His original statement can’t be assumed to be universally applied to the team’s overall 5 on 5 overall prowess, just their performance 5 on 5 in the two games. You make it seem like he was making the case that the Avalanche are generally not good at 5 on 5 which he wasn’t.

Pretendergast

Glad you elaborated. I’m of the mind each series is unique and the quality of goaltending faced by the Avs has been poor at best until this series. I agree they’re a wagon, full stop. I hate it.

Tarkus

With the draft being held in Montreal this year, would they be in the market for another first round pick this year?

Could the Oilers’ pick at #29 entice Les Habitants to part with, say, picks #33 and #62?

fishman

Oil Kings win!!!!!!!!!

fishman

Even if the Oil Kings win they may be in tough. Only 2 pts for OT win vs 3 for reg win.

Tarkus

Under this new points system, Shawinigan will guarantee at least a semifinal appearance with a regulation win tomorrow. Even an OT win would put them in good stead too.

Last edited 2 years ago by Tarkus
fishman

If Oil Kings beat the Bulldogs they should get in as well.

fishman

3 on 3 OT and it is wild!

OriginalPouzar

Holy hell – that was quick Tampa….

Ice Sage

Oilers did that once!

fishman

Cossa directs a rebound directly to a Sea Dog and then is forced to make a tough save. I don’t think he has played that well in this tournament so far.

OriginalPouzar

I haven’t seen any of today’s game but, notwithstanding some 5-bell saves, he had some tough ones yesterday, including on the winning goal. A very Mike Smith like performance….

fishman

Oil Kings and Sea Dogs tied 3-3 in 2 nd per. It is a feisty affair!

OriginalPouzar
flyfish1168

I find it disgusting and disgraceful that 5 PHWA left Connor off their ballot. They should be banned from ever voting again. How can they be designated as being PROFESSIONAL?

Last edited 2 years ago by flyfish1168
jp

Bill Hoppe – Olean Times Herald (western NY state) (voted Kaprizov)
Simon-Olivier Lorange – La Presse (Montreal) (voted Shesterkin)
Colin Stephenson – Newsday (Long Island) (voted Matthews)
Anthony SanFillipo – Crossing Broad (Philadelphia) (voted Shesterkin)
Seth Rorbaugh – Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (voted Kaprizov)

OriginalPouzar

Jason Gregor
@JasonGregor
·
7m
“I told them I’d reach out in late June to find out if they have an answer (about playing or not), but there is no hard deadline. Ideally you’d want to know before July 4th or 5th leading into the draft and then free agency,” Holland on Smith and Keith.

Fuge Udvar

Hearing Connor Brown is potentially available intrigues me. Fast, 2-way that consistently puts up 0.6 pts/g. Not the sexiest pickup but at 3.6M you can keep the whole band together.

Hyman-McDavid-Brown
McLeod-Draisaitl-Yamamoto
Holloway-Nuge-Puljujarvi
Foegele-Ryan

Nurse-Ceci
Keith-Bouchard
Kulak-Barrie
Broberg

You can fit it all. I know people want a shooter but that is a rocket fast and responsible line up. Woodcroft and Manson can work some 11/7 magic with those pieces.

Fuge Udvar

Oilers 1st+Bourgault+Kassian for Brown+one of Ottawa’s 2nds

OriginalPouzar

Yikes – Brown is one year until UFA and, from accounts, will be looking to the market.

Fuge Udvar

If he is still in Ottawa I’m sure he will be looking to test the market

OriginalPouzar

and if traded to Edmonton and re-signed, it will be another 4-5 year plus contract for $4M/$5M plus for a player heading in their 30s…… I think he have enough of those.

Our core (Nurse, McDavid, Leon) and supplemental veterans (Nuge, Hyman, Ceci) are locked in for term – I think it would be tough to add more big money and term to the next tier – that is where the “aging veterans” need to be replaced by younger and improving players (Yamamoto, Puljujarvi, Bouchard, McLeod, eventually, Holloway, Bourgault, etc.).

At least in my opinion.

For me, Brown could be a great deadline rental but paying full price in the off-season is a bit much.

Scungilli Slushy

That’s 2 firsts, seems a bit steep for me. Kassian is a useful player still and produces even if he’s not a great fit on the Oilers anymore

Fuge Udvar

Trading the 1st for Ottawa’s 2nd is only trading down 10 spots (I should have specified).

The trade is structured as Bourgault and 10 spots for 3.2M in cap space plus Brown

Scungilli Slushy

True

TheGreatBigMac

That’s one year of Brown for Bourgault and then spots down, not great value. I’d rather just trade whole picks and b prospects.

OriginalPouzar

Can’t agree on Kassian – as far as “production” he was below 1.00 P/60 last season and only at 1.28 this season which is replacement level – couple that with increasing IR time and, of course, poor 2-way play……

Fuge Udvar

I did not expect this trade to be popular and I was right

dessert1111

I don’t think you’re that far off, but for me it comes down to how much divesting of Kassian’s contract is worth. I’d rather keep Bourgeault because I think there’s a decent bet he outperforms his contract as early as next year and be more valuable than Brown.

A prospect like Samourukov – some value , but not as high end and in a position of strength – and then I’d do the deal.

jp

I did not expect this trade to be popular and I was right

It’s just too much.

Surely Connor Brown won’t command that in a trade??

Durag

never mind, I realize this is all based on hypotheticals for RFA salaries and you can’t calculate cap space remaining

Last edited 2 years ago by Durag
Fuge Udvar

You can fit Smith’s 2.2M under that. It all comes down to what Puljujarvi+Yamamoto sign for. If you can get them both for 5M total it’s doable with about 0.5M in cap space.

Fuge Udvar

For arguments sake. JP 3M, Yams 2.5M, McLeod 1.5K, Kulak 2M leaves 1M cap space. Potentially 3.2M for a goalie if Smith retires

TheGreatBigMac

What you are proposing sounds tight, I couldn’t fit Kulak in, with retention on Brown.

Last edited 2 years ago by TheGreatBigMac
Fuge Udvar

You won’t be running a 23 man roster. Realistically Foegele would be a cap casualty as well

lenko

“Whole Band” seems to be missing Kane.

jp

Bands these days. SMH.

OriginalPouzar

Holland will be on with Gregor at 3:20.

OriginalPouzar

Tom Gazzola
@TomGazzola
·
57m
The schedule for the 2022 Young Stars Classic in Penticton is out. Oilers rookies play Sep.16 vs. VAN. Sep.17 vs. CGY & Sep.19 vs. WPG.

Jordan

From Jay and Ken’s Media avail today:
“…implementing a system that’s suited to your personnel…”
(edit – 13:50 of the media avail)
How long have we been asking for this… You’re such a tease Jay!

Last edited 2 years ago by Jordan
Harpers Hair

It appears the Jets are going to burn it down.

Blake Wheeler apparently on the market:

https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/winnipeg-jets-captain-blake-wheeler-debuts-on-trade-targets-board/

Gerta Rauss

If Hellybuyck is available Holland should be all over that. It would turn the summer’s ‘to do’ list upside down , but so be it

Harpers Hair

That would be a perfect target.

Scungilli Slushy

That’d take some cap gymnastics not seen by the org so far

jp

He makes not quite $6.2M (nice deal), it would be easier than signing Kane.

LMHF#1

I can see it now – a brilliant trade is executed bringing this team a goalie completely capable of winning a Cup…

and 75% of the comments section cries and screams that prospects were traded.

Push all the resources onto the table if he’s available at any point. Make it happen.

pts2pndr

The reality is the prospects on value contracts will allow the retention of Draisaitl and McDavid moving forward. Value contracts are an imperative. Push all in for Hellybucyk and one of the big two will be an economic casualty.

Gerta Rauss

The big 2 contracts expire in 3 and 4 years respectively

There is every indication the cap will be going up in that same time frame

The price for Hellybuyck would be dear, yes, but I don’t think it would leave the cupboards bare 

I think the biggest hedge against losing McDavid and Draisaitl would be winning Stanley before their contracts expire

Coilers2021

If that’s true then what are the chances that Trotz would want to go there.

This may be a nothing burger.. . Click bait…slow news day.

And even if he’s traded, it might not necessarily mean that they’re tearing out all down.

leadfarmer

theres been rumors that they are looking at moving the leadership core for a while. Scheiffele and Wheeler are gone although Wheeler will need significant retention

Harpers Hair

PLD has announced he will not be re-signing before hitting UFA status in 2024.

Material Elvis

Frank Seravalli had some very interesting comments recently on his podcast regarding Schiefele’s perpetually bad attitude. He’s a complainer and there is friction in the Jets locker room.

OriginalPouzar

Part of getting better is making sure you see things clearly. Lots of stock in reviewing the season, going over the detailed notes that he takes, etc.

OriginalPouzar

Hardest thing for Woody professionally (or that he didn’t realize) was the intensity of the schedule as soon as he got there. He’d coached over 100 games so was well aware of the schedules generally but, as soon as they got there, it was 5 games in 7 nights, travel all over, etc.
Tried to approach it with an open mind and immerse themselves in the challenge.

OriginalPouzar

On McLeod and role going forward: “I see him as a really good hockey player, first of all”. Talked about his versatility in both the NHL and Bakersfield and it makes him comfortable moving him around to find him minutes as a good player. The PK was struggling and it created an opportunity to get him more ice and given his history with McLeod he knew he could do it (same with Yamamoto). He’s a good young hockey player with a bright future ahead of him and a coaching staff that believes in him. He was tasked to “find some gains” this off-season, in the weight room and then on the ice.

godot10

I hope the NHL Awards next season goes commando.

OriginalPouzar

Jay says they wanted to create a pair that could go against the league’s top players and tasked Nurse/Ceci with that and they were able to concentrate on that tasks/role and did well and it freed up some other d-man to do what they are best suited for.

OriginalPouzar

LT asks about Woody’s comfort level of playing 2 (or more) of the young D in the top 6.

Woody immediately adds Deharnais to the group and talks about his understanding of these players and mentions, when he first came up, he had four youngsters in at the same time.

Has comfort in having coached then in the AHL and there is a healthy chance to make the team in Edmonton and to earn ice time in Edmonton and its incumbent on the players to run with that.

Material Elvis

You are correct LT about McDavid voter fatigue. It really is the best explanation for why Matthews won those awards. Statistically, other than goals, he had an inferior season to McDavid. If you look at on ice goal differential, expected goals, expected goal differential, McDavid crushed Matthews. Unfortunately, Connor was the victim of a low on ice shooting percentage and it cost him.

Harpers Hair

Matthews finished 10th in Selke Trophy voting.

teamblue

Funny how a player not trusted to play on the PK gets Selke votes.

Harpers Hair

5V5

CF%
Matthews 59.71
McDavid 56.72

FF%
Matthews 59.66
McDavid 56.35

GF%
Matthews 59.46
McDavid 59.35

xG%
Matthews 63.91
McDavid 59.00

HDCF%
Matthews 62.96
McDavid 57.91

HDGF%
Matthews 57.95
McDavid 63.89

ONSV%
Matthews 88.48
McDavid 92.48

https://naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20212022&thruseason=20212022&playerid=8479318&sit=5v5&stype=2

http://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20212022&thruseason=20212022&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=oi&rate=n&v=p&playerid=8478402

LadiesloveSmid

Very DSF-ian to show on-ice SV% but not on-ice SH% (11.7 Matthews vs 8.3 Connor, a career low). Cherry picked & disingenuous? You would never.

Also, not using relative numbers when TOR ran a higher CF%, GF%, and xGF% than EDM.

Harpers Hair

Should Matthews be docked because he shoots significantly more and scores on a higher percentage of those shots?

Had Matthews received league average goaltending in those minutes, the gap between the two would have been even more pronounced.

If you feel Rel numbers are significant here, please feel free to post them.

Side

If we use your playbook then we can use the same excuse you used earlier:

“McDavid is still getting up to speed from his knee injury”

OriginalPouzar

McDavid was coming off one Hart in a row and one Lindsay in a row…. right?

OriginalPouzar

Looking forward to Woody on with LT in just a few minutes here.

OriginalPouzar

Auston Matthews scored 60 goals last season, that’s an enormous total. McDavid’s 123 points led the league, and I would have voted for 97, but there’s no doubt at all that Matthews earned strong consideration.

Agree on this. Very strong arguments can be made for both players (among various others: Kaprisov, Gaudreau, Sheshterkin, Josi, etc.).

I find the masses of Oilers fans complaining about this somewhat petty.

All but noone things that Matthews is “better than McDavid” but its fair to say that McDavid is the best player in the world but another player may have had “a better season” or even “was more valuable to his team” in a particular season.

Citing “eastern bias” doesn’t really ring honest to me given the players themselves voted Matthews for the best season and the Lindsay. That’s not the same as most valuable to his team but I could argue that Drai was the most valuable to the Oilers.

Last year these awards were no-brainers and McDavid won unanimously. This season, there were MANY enormous seasons.

OriginalPouzar

I’m reading here and there about Kailer Yamamoto’s strong finish, and Jesse Puljujarvi’s poor play in the second half of the year. Every summer there’s an attempt to reshape history to fit what comes next, and it’s important to resist. 

Even if we take aside the “advanced metrics” and Jesse being an objectively high end defensive player that drives play and helps his linemates, and focus simply on production, there seems to me much recency bias as it relates to comparing Yamamoto’s and Puljujarvi’s production.

End of the year and production was very similar among the two (adjusting for Jesse missing more games with injury) but its simply about Yamo being unproductive in the 2nd half but productive (vis-a-vis goals) i the 2nd half and Jesse being the opposite.

Both of these players produced well in stretches and not well in other stretches.

Lets not forget that Jesse’s drop in production coincided with missing time due to Covid (which, from accounts, lasted), then missing 5 weeks with an LBI (which, from accounts, effected his skating going forward) and then another non-Covid illness.

I can’t prove cause and effect but its reasonable to suggest that Jesse’s drop in production has some mitigating circumstances.

I see no reason why this org should not, or cannot, keep both.

Both will be value contracts for the next few years (likely).

FabioRoberto

Let’s hope the gm and coach share your view:)

OriginalPouzar

Darnell Nurse: 309 minutes, 53.5DFF%; 4.72 DFF%RC; 64.3% Goals

I believe this is ap 50% of his TOI vs. elites and I don’t care how many McDavid minutes are in there, this is real and its spectacular.

Nurse’s debilitating injury in the playoffs was a team killer – he’s, in my opinion, the second most important skater on the team given his role.

DevilsLettuce

If Winnipeg is about to blow it up, what would it take to get Hellinabuick? Couple 1sts, JP, some salary, high speed train to North Dakota?

Mayan Oil

Maybe an airport…

813.52Ran

And we used to have a spare one downtown.

Bill

Watch them not bring back Manson and stuff Coffey beside Woodcroft… it’s a rough day without caffeine(No pun intended, gord be damned blood pressure!) and this has been a fear of mine for some odd reason.

fishman

I would guess that if Manson does not return it will be Manson’s decision.

dcsj

I think Conner or Leon had a stronger case for Hart than Matthews, but in the end, the only award that matters is Stanley.

dustrock

If the Oilers lost in the Finals, I bet they’d JS Giguere McDavid.

dustrock

Michael Jordan should have won MVP of the NBA every single year, including when he was 89 years old on the Washington Wizards, but that’s not how the awards work.

DevilsLettuce

Micheal Jordan should of won it every year he was a Chicago Bull, his Wizard days were nice but not near MVP levels with what AI, Duncan, and Shaq were doing at the time.

McDavid should of won MVP if the definition is most valuable, Matthews team had a better record with him not playing.

McDavid could of gone for 60 but he passes the puck.

This past season the Maple Leafs were 7-2 without Matthews in the line up.

FabioRoberto

They gave it to Matthews so Leafs fans have something to talk about until the next first round exit next Spring. He will be as good as gone come free agency lol

Coilers2021

Very true. After all, you have to throw a bone to the old dog even once in awhile.

Jokes aside, I think it’s good that mcdavid has good company for the hart trophy. The league is better because of all of these amazing players.

OriginalPouzar

Of note, Woody talked about formulating a system for the players once the team was built (as opposed to looking for players to fit a preferred system).

Randle McMurphy

Extremely important idea.

You have to play the cards you’re dealt.

Now get to work Woody, helping Mr. Holland to stack the deck.

meanashell11

Really….. I have been banging the square peg round hole BS since MacT stopped coaching. We got all these loser coaches who came in with their plan and never took a look at whether it fit the team the GM was assembling. Finally we have a coach who is humble and does not try to force his system on the team.

OriginalPouzar

Analytics oriented and much reviewed Bill Zito goes with one the recycled “hockey men” to coach his team and not the upstart newer age coach that led the team to much success with the interim tag.

OriginalPouzar

Nugent-Bowman asked about the Kane grievance going late and how that could effect things. Holland wasn’t able to provide an answer but did confirm multiple talks with Millstein and the desire to bring him back.

Keeper_13

Hard to understand this situation as anything besides “the NHL wants to punish a player and is willing to also punish two franchise who haven’t done anything wrong while also looking like unprofessional bunglers in order to do so. “

OriginalPouzar

Except that it not the NHL alone setting any timelines.

This is a grievance filed by the NHLPA, on behalf of Kane – why the arbitrator is who he is, with his apparent schedule, is unknown but its not like the NHL is just driving the process.

Keeper_13

Good point. Plenty of discredit to go around.

Randle McMurphy

Woody’s deal is $2m X 3 years.

This is exactly the contract I envisioned for a Rookie NHL Head Coach.

Win Lord Stanley’s Cup and the salary more than doubles.

Last edited 2 years ago by Randle McMurphy
Randle McMurphy

If coaches salaries were included in the teams cap, Jay would represent “Value”

Last edited 2 years ago by Randle McMurphy
Victoria Oil

That’s a bargain contract for Mr Katz.

OriginalPouzar

Holland confirms that he will ask Jay about his thoughts on every individual player and about off-season procurement and confirms he will have influence and they will talk on a regular basis.

Also mentioned looking at the analytics as part of the process.

Randle McMurphy

Here’s hoping that Woody is driving the Analytics Bus.

Randle McMurphy

Of course, he would need to convince the powers that be to buy the damn bus in the first place.

OriginalPouzar

Of note, Woody played Archibald for all but two playoff games (and played Malone in the playoffs)…. right?

Randle McMurphy

“You can frame issues any way you want”

And you certainly have 🙂

The crusade to save the Bison is admirable but I think it rings hollow at times and in that repsect may just be creating more deaf ears.

See Redbird and JP comments below; Two very smart fellows.

(by the by, I think those two fellows and I are all for keeping JP)

Last edited 2 years ago by Randle McMurphy
Redbird62

I am in favor of keeping JP under the right circumstances. I like Jesse and he is easy to root for especially his fun loving demeanour. I certainly wouldn’t want to see him traded for draft picks or some 4th line fill in. Based on what I see, I also would think a long term high value contract would still be risky, but the Oilers almost certainly have intel that I don’t if they go this route. For me, ideally he is either kept at a reasonable bridge deal (less than $3 million and by how much less dependent on term) or dealt in a trade that overall helps the Oilers being able to fill a real need on the team that he does not (eg. being able to sign Kane for a reasonable term and price plus getting back a solid NHL player).

Randle McMurphy

I am not surprised that Austin Mathews won the Hart. I thought it would be close.

The fact that he won it with 119 first place votes to McDavid’s 29 first place votes was surprising.

What really surprised me was Mathews winning the Ted Lindsay. How the Players vote matters more to me; I don’t think there’s much bias in the player voting. (although I could see candidates player friends/teammates campaigning for them behind the scenes)

I would be curious to know the reasoning behind the players votes. All I can conclude is that they live in a world where most things (salaries) are determined by Goals, and Goals are considered to be the hardest thing to achieve. But for me there’s already an award for most Goals, it’s the Maurice Richard.

Was “the Player” reasoning more based on winning? Wherein being great means helping to create a true contender, and they viewed Toronto as a True contender and Edmonton as a “pretender” that got lucky? I think this had to be part of it.

Harpers Hair

A possible clue:

The hardest thing to do in hockey is score goals at even strength.

Matthews – 44
Kyle Connor – 36
McDavid – 34
Gaudreau – 34
Kaprizov – 33

Worth noting that Matthews started the season while recovering from wrist surgery and did not score much in his first 10 games.

He also played fewer games that the others on the above list.

Redbird62

In 2011/12 Stamkos scored 60 goals to Malkin’s 50 and 48 evg to Malkin’s 38 but Malkin got the votes and they weren’t that far apart in points with Stamkos being 2nd in the Art Ross (less than the 17 points McDavid was ahead of Matthews). In 18/19, Kucherov was 17th in the league in EVG (McDavid was 6th – Tavares was 1st) and Kucherov was second to McDavid in EVP. McDavid played 4 less games than Kucherov and was only slightly behind in points per game. I guess the voters in those seasons didn’t have a clue.

Harpers Hair

Pretty good chance McDavid got docked in the 18/19 season for his poor defensive play.

xG% 47.84

http://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20182019&thruseason=20182019&stype=2&sit=ev&stdoi=oi&rate=n&v=p&playerid=8478402

Redbird62

Yes I am sure the NHL players make their decisions by looking at a hypothetical determinant of on-ice performance, which even if it was at all accurate, it’s still generally a reflection of all 6 players on the ice. I guess the fact that McDavid was only on the ice for 2.26 ga/60 this season while Matthews was on the ice for 3.06 ga/60 (a data point that is not up to someone’s interpretation of what actually happened on a play) didn’t factor into their voting this year either.

Side

Did Matthews say he recovered after those 10 games, or are you just saying he was still hurt for those 10 games to explain why he didn’t score so much?

Cause if it’s the latter then your note isn’t really worth noting given your history of bias.

Harpers Hair

Well, he missed all of the pre-season and the first 3 games of the season so a reasonable person would surmise it took him some time to get up to speed.

You not so much.

https://theathletic.com/news/auston-matthews-will-miss-leafs-first-three-games/1SBMpfvVMI8b/

Side

“Some time”

So again, you are just guessing it took 7 games for him to get caught up to speed since he missed the 3 games? Or are you arbitrarily saying 10 games and then the 3 missed games are included as part of your “played fewer games” comment?

Do you think Matthews would have participated in all preseason games if he had a healthy wrist?

Last edited 2 years ago by Side
pts2pndr

His credibility is stellar compared to you HH and it’s not even close!

DevilsLettuce

Worth noting the Maple leafs were 7-2 without the puck hog playing.

Would say the team functions better when it’s not focused on running its offense through one players stick.

teamblue

How is playing fewer games a positive point for him? Isn’t playing in the actual games kind of important? Why did McDavid get knocked for only playing 45 games his rookie season in the Calder race if playing fewer games was a positive for him? Or Nuge in his rookie season not getting positive points for playing fewer games than Landeskog?
Kind of funny how Matthews never has his actual production, but always his on pace for production to prop him up.

Redbird62

While I really can’t quibble about the players picking Matthews for having the most outstanding season this year, I am not convinced the players are any better than the press at objectively voting on which player had the most outstanding season, or that there are not influences beyond just how the players performed. How much does the average player watch of other team’s games compared to the press?

There is probably no greater evidence that the players are far from infallible in this regard than that they chose Mike Liut as the most outstanding player in the league in 1981. This despite Gretzky shattering Espo’s single season points record with 164 points. Dionne was well back at 135 points and Kurri was Edmonton’s second highest point getter with 75 points. The players just weren’t ready to concede the skinny 20 year old was the best player in the league. The press got that one right.

While Orr only won it once, the award didn’t start until the 70/71 season, missing out on a few of his top seasons. The players picked Ratelle in 71/72 over Orr, and though Ratelle had a fine season and perhaps his best, the vote wasn’t strictly based on their relative performances. The press also got this one right.

Mario Lemieux’ best full season was 88/89 winning the Art Ross with 199 points leading the league in goals (85) and tied with Gretzky in assists, yet the press gave Gretzky the Hart and the players voted for Yzerman (before Yzerman was noted for being a 2 way player). Interesting that at the time, Lemieux was more upset about not getting the Hart than the Pearson (Lindsay).