The day Edmonton drafted Evan Bouchard, the organization had three outstanding choices available. The Oilers would draft No. 10, then the New York Islanders would get the next two players. At that point in the draft, Bouchard (I had him No. 8), Oliver Wahlstrom (No. 6 on my list) and Noah Dobson (No. 10 on the LT ranking) were the best available. The Oilers, in choosing Bouchard, took the highest offensive ceiling. Did it work?
THE ATHLETIC!
- Lowetide: What Oilers assets should Ken Holland trade this summer?
- DNB: Oilers commit to coach Jay Woodcroft
- DNB: Which Oilers are most likely to return next season? Who goes?
- Lowetide: Are Oilers prospects Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway NHL-ready?
- Lowetide: How Edmonton Oilers would benefit from signing Andrei Kuzmenko
- DNB: What if Edmonton Oilers trade Jesse Puljujarvi? The case for and against
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ Tyler Benson is at a career crossroads
- Lowetide: What does Oilers’ optimal roster for Jay Woodcroft look like?
- DNB: Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl’s playoffs for the ages: What’s the legacy?
- DNB & Scott Powers: Oilers’ cap situations if Duncan Keith retires
- Lowetide: Oilers pro scouts have to get it right in free agency this summer
- DNB: Edmonton Oilers offseason priorities: A 10-step plan for success
- Lowetide: What will Edmonton Oilers do in first round of 2022 NHL Draft?
- Lowetide: Can the ‘Connor McDavid will ask Oilers to be traded?’ group please sit down?
- DNB: What Oilers goalie Mike Smith’s unclear future could mean for offseason plans
- Lowetide: Why Jordan Dumais could be NHL Draft steal for Edmonton Oilers
HOCKEYTOWN
I’ve asked you many times to buy the Jim Devellano book “Hockey Town” and you never do; so now, I’m going to quote it to death. Here’s Devellano, scouting director for the New York Islanders, discussing the team’s first-round selection at the 1977 draft:
- In the 1977 draft, we had the 15th overall pick. When our turn came up, we had two players to discuss at the draft table: Mike Bossy, who did nothing but score in the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League; and Dwight Foster, who led the Ontario Hockey League in scoring and also was a good all around player.
- Bossy was noted as a player who didn’t check, and there were some questions about his toughness. Foster was a better all-around player and a safer pick, as there wasn’t much doubt he was going to play in the NHL.
- There was a decision to be made. I described both to Al Arbour (Islanders coach), who along with (GM) Bill Torrey and the scouts, was seated at our table. Al thought it over and his view was pretty clear.
- “If you can assure me that Bossy isn’t scared, then take him,” said Arbour. “I can teach a player to check, but I can’t teach a player to score, and we need goals.”
EVAN BOUCHARD
I don’t know what the topic involved at the Oilers draft table in 2018, but Bob Green (scouting director), Peter Chiarelli, Keith Gretzky and coach Todd McLellan may have been pondering something similar to the Al Arbour quote above. How is it working so far?
Bouchard was rushed to the NHL (partly responsible for the totals here) and slow-played in 2020-21. This season he found the range. Bouchard defended many offensive sorties, got burned by back door plays and got caught out of position multiple times during 2021-22. Good. The process of learning to play the NHL game is damned difficult but you have to endure the growing pains sooner or later.
On the other side of the coin, Bouchard’s even-strength offense was terrific, and even though he spent most of his power-play time on the second unit, his talent was obvious. How high can Bouchard fly? I think Woodcroft-Manson will get more out of him this coming season than we’ve seen so far. It would be a good idea to sign the long-term deal this summer, don’t know if the agent/player would be willing.
RYAN MCLEOD
Later in the same draft, Edmonton chose young winger Ryan McLeod (I had him No. 25) in the second round. Like Bouchard, he was an older player in the draft, but unlike the first-round selection McLeod was a burner with natural two-way acumen.
Arbour’s point is well taken about not being able to teach scoring, but there are ways to improve.
I’ve mentioned this several times before, but 60+ years ago an event happened that always struck me as being a great lesson. Some of these old timey tales are embellished, but this one sounds accurate. It involves a rookie winger (Gilles Tremblay) who could shadow scorers from his left wing position but had a tough time scoring. It also involves legendary coach Toe Blake.
Legend has it that Blake took him aside after his rookie season and talked to him about his game. The legendary coach lauded Tremblay’s defensive game, but told him he’d need to score more goals. “Take care of the checking and I’ll show you how to score enough to stay in the league” said coach Blake.
Well, I think Woodcroft did some of that in Bakersfield with Ryan McLeod and believe there may be more to come.
I’m writing today about Bouchard and McLeod because the Oilers are going to need these young AHL players to develop into more than they were touted to be on draft day. The 2018 draft sent two dandy young players to the show in Bouchard and McLeod. Philip Broberg and Raphael Lavoie are the 2019 hopefuls, with Dylan Holloway the first 2020 draft pick to play in an NHL game. Oilers need talent. Woodcroft-Manson will be a major part of it, as they already have been in the careers of Bouchard and McLeod.
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
We’re on 10-2 today, TSN1260, with Chris Johnston (TSN Insider) headlining and many stops along the way. We’ll chat Lightning-Avalanche overtime, Oil Kings overtime win at the Memorial Cup, the reaction to Jay Woodcroft-Ken Holland media avail yesterday, the NBA draft and more. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Any breaking news, we’ve got it!
Oh Bourg, he has certainly been watching some Oiler games. Anyone else catch his attempted Drai backhand forehand trick shot on the PP? He was on the opposite side of the low slot due to him being RH, almost pulled it off too.
Well, as much as I hate to say it, the Bourg keeps adding to his trade value. Nothing like going out and getting noticed in a famous tournament.
I’d still rather hang on to him, lol. But it is nice to see he isn’t at all wowed by the big stage.
I love the hat Patty Maroon sporting. Why did we get rid of such a useful likeable person.
He was a pending UFA that was not going to re-sign at a reasonable rate and the Oilers were not making the playoffs. Not to mention he was having a “meh” year and dealing with a back injury.
He had to be dealt given the circumstances.
That was on his agent IIRC.
Patrice Bergeron signs a one year extension in Boston.
Karma
During last year’s #StanleyCu
Playoffs, Tampa scored a go-ahead goal with seven players on the ice during Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Final.
https://twitter.com/BR_OpenIce/status/1540020676202881024?cxt=HHwWgICj_aipoN8qAAAA
What a bunch of sore losers the Lightning are…..
That’s why they’re winners.
Most likely not after tomorrow night….
Just more evidence of really bad officiating. I honestly don’t know why anyone would place a bet on an NHL team/game, at least not without knowing who the officials would be siding with. It’s sad that the game I love to watch more than any other, is being “managed” by the on ice officials, nudging towards the outcome of their preference.
The best sport in the world.
The worst run league in the world.
Summarizing!
Indeed, The Bourg assimilated another premiere etoile as Shawinigan wins again, 3-2 over Hamilton. 1+2 on the night gives him 14-13-27 in 18 postseason games.
The standings so far with all teams having played twice:
SHA – 6
SNB – 4
EDM – 2
HAM – 0
Only Saint John can catch Shawinigan now, and only if the hosts win in regulation in their Saturday meeting. Otherwise, the Cats will clinch first and advance to Wednesday’s final.
Thank you so much for providing updates all year. No need to look up various sites as I know it will be on this blog. Thanks again!
Bourgualt named 1st star in the 3-2 win!
Again.
1-2-3 Great game
He was -1 mind you – all 3 points on the PP…..
2nd star
It certainly seemed like the announcers called it wrong as Bourgault went over second, and then Bourque skated across last to get his token and was the first star. Both went 1G-2A so maybe it could have gone either way.
His game wasn’t perfect (whose is?) but his loss of the puck at the far blue line, led to Shawinigan taking a penalty, and his back tracking with the puck in the neutral zone, then losing it, soon resulted in Shawinigan giving up the 2nd goal against. If it works 9/10 times, you forgive him, but those were not good puck management decisions. To be expected from a 19 year old though, we’ll see how long it takes him to improve those types of things.
He and Bourque though are a chance generating duo. He has 10 shots in 2 games, Bourque 11. Bourque was drafted a year ahead of Xavier, but in this game at least, it didn’t appear that Bourque was driving the play any more than Bourgualt. They seem to feed off each other.
That’s exactly the way it looks to me too.
Precisely why this young man should not be moved. Not only has he covered best case scenario re progress, he has blown it out of the water. He also fills a team need! Biggest need for the team for a Cup would seem to be a number one Goalie. I would humbly suggest that signing Kulack at a reasonable cap hit and a physical left side D that can move up to second pairing while jettisoning Keith is as or more important and a whole lot cheaper. The team has to set a cap hit to fit Kane in and stick with it! His value is real and not easily replaceable. Kane has been an exemplary professional in his time as an Oiler! Old saying “ a bird in hand is worth two in the bush”!
One issue: there is zero ability to jettison Keith unless Keith wants to be jettisoned…..
Make him a coach
again, if he doesn’t want to…..
1) Traded
2) Bobrovsky (50% retained), Skinner
3) Yes, 5mil x 6, SJ pays out a large portion of remaining contract.
4) No
5) Kane
6) Barrie for Bobrovsky….
Foegele, JP and 29th overall for Alex Tuch 16th overall pick….
Kassian for 4th round pick
7) Yes 2.5 mil x 5 years
8) No, too stubborn
9) None
10) None, until trade deadline
11) Traded
6 years for Kane? Yikes!
While I understand your thoughts, is it not better than betting on any of a number of unknowns? I personally prefer a three to four year deal. Does the cap allow that given Kanes value?
Kane’s turning 31, a 6 year deal, well, I know they are in “win-now mode” but that’s a bit much unless the AAV is WAY down.
Bobrovsky is on the downside of his career. Kane’s contract would be disastrous. You’re not getting Alex Tuch out of Buffalo.
Nice cross-seam pass by Bourgault that ends up the 2nd assist on the go-ahead PP goal.
Another game, another Bourgoal.
Also has a helper as Shawinigan leads 2-1 with five minutes to go in the first.
Eberle would have been crucified for “dusting it off”…….
Reality shows there is a time for a momentary pause! As a veteran I can say there are situations where timing is the difference between success and death! The easy answer is not always the correct one.
The post was made in jest……
I am not feeling sorry for the lightning one bit. They have gotten away with enough with non-calls and circumventing the CAP. Time for a new champion.
Besides the Aves have looked much better than them anyway.
Now there are images on the same play lightening has 7 players on the ice on Kadri’s goal
i want you to know that I bought the book for my Kindle years ago after your recommendation. enjoyed the insight immensely. When I go South in the winter I read a book every two days. Also have Burke’s law, Riverton Rifle, but mostly mysteries
Funny Blake said I’ll teach you how to score and Arbour said I can’t teach you how to score. Both great coaches.
I think a coach can teach you how to score in the Ryan Smyth sense but not the way Mike Bossy did it.
The “Old Lamplighter” Toe Blake was an offensive star in the NHL who won a Hart Trophy and went into the Hall of Fame as a player and is listed by the NHL as one of the 100 greatest players of all time. Al Arbour was a stay at home defenseman in his playing days. Both great coaches in their own right, but Toe knew a lot more personally about playing offense than Al Arbour.
If I were Chevaldayoff, I would be fine taking Dubois to arbitration, and trading him next summer. He is a motivated player.
Winnipeg doesn’t have to rebuild, just reload. I would trade Wheeler with 50% retained, and I would probably trade Schieffle too. Say something like Schieffle for Konecny.(modulo stuff.
I didn’t buy Hockeytown LT but I did sign it out of my library and read it in on my ipad. Does that count?
In the future, do you think they’ll look at mass producing paper products as one of the dumbest customs we prolonged?
How many trees need to die so we can read Pauly Shore’s autobiography?
Try “A Canticle for Liebowitz” on your gizmo.
Just read the wiki entry. Looks interesting and I’ll definitely give it a go. Thanks for the recommendation. Us readers have to stick together regardless of the medium ; )
Symbols on paper, eye readable as non-volatile long term storage widely distributed and stored is a good thing.
As is breathable atmosphere.
Hilarious when Canadians attempt to take on the worldview on things.
1 Canada has more trees than you can shake a stick at.
2 Canada’s air is ridiculously clean.
3 – When a country has territories that hit -30 and lower global warming will be nothing but good news for Canada.
I’m pretty sure books are printed in countries other than Canada. And yes the latest survey data confirms your position. Canadians are less concerned about climate change than most countries.
Good thing Canada doesn’t border any oceans
Apropos of nothing in particular:
Obama bought a $12 million home on the shores of Martha’s Vinyand and recented installed three 2500 gallon underground propane tanks on his property.
The EU exempted private jets (and not commercial airliners) from its carbon jet fuel tax.
Private Jets at Davos for the WEF.
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2019/jan/22/record-private-jet-flights-davos-leaders-climate-talk
I am a proud Canadian that has travelled and lived in a number of countries and I find your simplistic take hurtful and selling my fellow Canadians short!
I’m not positive you know what the effects of global warning actually entail…..
You should consider doing a better job of vetting your information sources.
Consider asking yourself what their interests are and what you wish to be the truth before you draw too many conclusions.
Books stored in librarie forever are a carbon sink. Create space to grow more tree and take even more carbon out of the atmosphere.
I definitely appreciate the books we have. Seems a little short sighted to make billions more imo especially when the available technology makes it unnecessary.
A lot of people in poorer countries cannot afford a Kindle or similar device, and a used book handed down can reach even the poorest peasant. The cost may not seem like much to you, but it is a barrier to the dissemination of knowledge to some extent. Look at the impact of the printing press on public knowledge and education for example.
There may come a point when we realize we can no longer afford utopian thinking like this when confronted with a global extinction event. Hopefully we never get there. The current complacent inertia isn’t encouraging.
The irony is that a global mass famine event is in the process of unfolding by a well intended but completely unfeasable-as-currently-conceived energy transition.
Energy transition is not possible unless nuclear is a significant part of it. Actual physics trumps ideologically driven science.
Solar is seemingly cheap because China has been willing to lose money to monopolize energy intensive solar panel production using coal-fired electricty generation and slave labour. There goes the S and the G.
Wind (and EV’s) are seemingly cheap because China is the only country willing to accepts the environnmental damage inherent to rare earth metals mining and refining.
The metals do not currently exist for the speed of the energy transition planned.
I’m not convinced paper is less eco friendly than electronics
A book uses resources once. Manufacture kindle, batteries, constant power use, servers, wifi, internet, almost completely non biodegradable when it croaks
As someone who worked in forestry for 20 years I can tell you that zero parts of it are good for the environment.
Everytime humans enter wilderness they do harm, it’s a matter of degree depending on the activities and practices of the individuals involved.
The scary part is the lack of conscience by published writers. We now have a number of amoral people writing for the money and notoriety. Truth has been the unwitting victim!
I’m also getting a copy.
A classic of Sci Fi. Very influential book. You, sir, have good taste!
I have mine on Kindle.
My ask LT is simply this, do you miss the feel of a book in your hand! Do you remember how good it felt to share a good read with a friend! I embrace technology but there is at time a sense of loss for times gone bye!😔
I have many books but am old and have begun to cull the herd. I do have books from 70 years ago though, and love reading them.
How are you on virtual reality!
Sad but inevitable.
Reminds me of the Axl Rose line. “Your only validation is in living your own life. A vicarious existence is a fucking waste of time.”
Thank you! I could go on a rant but let it suffice to say I appreciate your candour!
Meta comes for us all.
What a development story Ryan McLeod has been.
First in the AHL. As a rookie, the coach (Woody) did trust him with PK time early but, at 5 on 5, he was a 3rd liner and not even a full time center. There was little offence and that transition game we now love wasn’t on display. His second season in the AHL was a “pop season” – a PPG guy playing on the league’s best line – plus the transition and PK game.
He showed well in his late season NHL call-up and the playoffs but it was clear the “physicality of the NHL game” was something he needed to be able to play in. He had an aversion to contact and physicality – avoid finishing hits, going to the hard areas and battling.
That was his task for the off-season and, well, what we saw in camp and early in the season was highly disappointing – there was zero development in this area and some regression in his confidence and two-way game.
He was sent back to Bakersfield and, frankly, didn’t actually show any work on the areas of need – his speed and transition game is elite in the AHL and, playing with other high end players, they just dominate and there is “no need to battle”.
Upon recall, he was OK but, to my eye, was still showing an aversion to the tough areas. He was showing high end defensive play and transition play but was a play killer completely in the offensive zone. I was getting to the point where I wondered if it “would ever come”. For me, his floor was 4C but he needed some battle level to become a legit 3C.
It came through the year – no, never a bruiser and I still think he can finish checks better, however, he started to go to the tough areas, to take contact to make plays, to battle and win battles, etc.
His transition game, zone exit and zone entry is high end, his PK is high end and, late in the year, we started to see some offensive confidence – making some real skilled plays.
I’m so happy with his development this past year – great on him.
I agree. I wonder what to cost of trading for his brother Michael would be. Probably not too expensive.
Aghhh, the older and higher pedigree, yes, worse McLeod brother.
Bouchard is already one of the top offensive 5 on 5 d-men in the league.
History shows that PP acumen is one of his top skills and, once he takes over as the main PP1 guy, I imagine he’ll be in (or around) the top 5 in d-men production year after year after year.
His offensive brain and skills are real and substantial.
He’s not currently a great defender in the half zone game but he’s improving and he’ll get there. Defending is hard and young d-men, even the higher end studs, generally take time to hone those skills.
No doubt he’ll have enough defence in his game to be a legit top pairing guy very soon – likely within the next 12-18 months.
I hope Holland has the foresight to at least try and re-sign him for term this offseason. The “Klefbom contract” would be great for the team – not sure that Bouch would be amenable to that but you never know – a guaranteed $25MM (give or take – term) is not something to turn down without thought.
Bouchard’s ceiling is still not clearly visible for a great number of people.
Here’s where I sit – there are 3 players capable of taking over a game and throwing up dominating numbers on a given night on their own who play for the Edmonton Oilers.
The first two are obvious.
And there there’s Evan Bouchard.
He has already had some games where the impact he’s had to the good has been absolutely silly – and done by himself.
As that number increases (and it will), everyone will see that the Oilers (barring trades) #1 rearguard isn’t going to be Nurse for more than maybe another year.
Bold. 😉
Larry Murphy was literally booed out of two cities. Scotty Bowman said “c’mon over” each time, and won Cups with Murphy each time.
Bowman used Murphy too his strengths, and hid as best he could his weaknesses.
Bouchard will be booed out of cities where he is forced to play the toughest minutes/opposition, but will be a softer minutes assassin.
The Larry Murphy eye test is a great one for whether a hockey viewer knows a damn thing or not.
Related – have a look at the group of defencemen on this Capitals squad – https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0000491989.html
Embarrassment of riches doesn’t even begin to say it. Scary thing is you could argue it got even better later.
I think Bro is going to surprise a few people once he gets the yips out. He may be the one that rounds out the most, strong in every facet. And those boots, man. Forwards are going to hate playing him
So, per Seravelli, the Knights have a contract agreement for Riley Smith in the $5MM range.
When they acquired Weber, I cited potential off-season tagging issues as a team can only go 10% over the cap in the off-season and Weber’s cap hit would alway count towards that.
From accounts, this agreement won’t be “made official” for a while due to the 10% overage issue.
— It’s weird after so many years of turmoil but I’m going to post my annual ArmChair GM off-season list. A lot less uncertainty, and less likely “big changes”. Not mention presumably a full season with a certain start date for the first time in three years…
—Winner gets a LT PayPal contribution (nudge to others to PayPal our main man!):
WHAT WILL THE OILERS DO?:
1) Is Pool back or traded? If he resigns, what terms (years, AAV) for bonus what is the trade?
2) What is the starting goalie tandem next year?
3) Is Kane back? If so what terms (years, AAV)
4) Does Keith retire?
5) Who is the biggest AAV signing this off season : non-Kane?
6) Which player(s) under contract get traded this off-season? Name a player(s) that comes back:
7) Does Kulak get resigned, if so what terms (years, AAV)?
8) Do the Oilers create an “analytics” department?
9) Name player(s) bought out (none is an answer)
10) Name a D not currently in organization that is top6 D next season (none is an answer)
11) Does Klefs LTIR sit on books or get traded?
Please send back in following format as easier to tabulate :
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)
7)
8)
9)
10)
11)
1) JP traded for prospect and a pick.
2) Varlamov & Skinner
3) No but not for lack of trying.
4) No Keith will play out his contract
5) Varlamov
6) Derek Ryan. A draft pick.
7) Kulak. 3 years @ $3M per
8) No
9) Kassian
10) None
11) Klef LTIR traded
If you’re dealing JP for a prospect and a pick, aren’t you better off keeping him?
— BoP isn’t: Kenny is! This is WWOILDo. Not WWYouDo
Haven’t you been posting for a month that he’s going to be traded for a pick?
My fear is that he will be traded for a pick….I don’t want him to be. My personal view point is that if they cannot get back a player of similar age and pedigree(RW with size and skill) they will pay dearly long term.
Yes, sure but the poster predicts something that is the exact same thing you predict will happen and then you question him on it – seemed a bit odd to me.
My mistake
1) Traded. Patrik Nemeth
2) Mike Smith / Stuart Skinner
3) Kane is NOT back – SJ and NHL drag litigation out
4) Keith does NOT retire. Why would he?
5) Kulak
6) Tyson Barrie
7) Yes. 2yrs/$2.5M per
8) I think Woody creates his own
9) None – Not Kenny’s style – but he’ll need to to trade Tyson Barrie
10) Patrik Nemeth
11) On the books
Okay, most of my answers are in the context that no-one if going to do us any favours. The rest of the league just watched us go to the conference finals. They know we’re a couple of shrewd moves away from possibly going further.
Ian Cole??? lol
Yeah, just realized Kenny can get him for free.
Don’t forget, Kenny went to get a player from Chicago 2yrs from retirement that wanted a trade to Edmonton and came back a prospect, a pick and a full cap hit lighter.
Once again the unfounded implication that Bowman was forced to make a trade and have to take what he could get. Not impossible, but improbable that Keith would do that the the Hawks.
I didn’t imply, you inferred. I expect Bowman wanted to clear out Keith’s cap hit, and as a mark of respect, asked Keith where he would like to go.
Your version is actually much worse. The implication that Ken Holland didn’t have to make that trade at all and when he did, he did Bowman a solid that will now never be reciprocated.
Peruse all the trades where a pick or prospect usually accompanies the player when there’s a salary dump.
My version? No one I am aware of has ever said Holland had to make the trade? Of course he was clearly under no obligation to do anything and that should be understood by everyone. Second, nothing in what I said implies or states Holland was doing Bowman a favour. Third, it is revisionist history to say that it was Bowman who approached Keith to suggest moving him out as a salary dump. Keith was the one who made the trade request not Bowman. Now of course once Keith made the request, Bowman would be willing to move him if he received what he needed in return.
And what he got back for the defenseman who was his number on blue liner the previous year, was a border line 24 year old 3rd pairing defenseman (still hasn’t established himself as an NHL regular by 25 on a lottery team) and a 3rd round pick. For that he wasn’t willing to eat salary. Even without the relationship with Keith, no way Bowman looks Kane and Toews in the eye after doing a “salary dump” of Keith and not getting what he considers full value. He countered that to eat salary he would need it to be Bear, Samorukov and maybe more, not just Jones.
If both parties are free to walk away from a deal, then it is a true arms length with neither party having leverage. You want to criticize that Holland still gave up too much straight up, fair game, but you don’t know enough about what was discussed behind closed doors between Keith and Bowman to say that Bowman should have been handicapped in the discussions. Maybe he was, but the Holland haters won’t even acknowledge the alternative. The haters all also believed Keith was done and was barely 3rd pair, but he demonstrably helped the Oilers get to the semi-finals of the NHL playoffs playing 2nd pair minutes.
Take my answers with a grain of salt and of course the cap might not work (though I think it will be close), but here goes:
1) JP’s qualified, but the contract negotiations break down by mid-July. Because Jesse has arbitration rights and his underlying numbers are so good, his agent believes he has all the leverage, forcing Holland to make a trade with the now rebuilding Bruins right before the arbitration starts. Coming back is DeBrusk, which also means that Kane (likely) won’t return because the money is too tight and the grievance process is still ongoing when the trade goes down.
2) Varlamov/Skinner. Smith retires and is given a scouting position in the org focusing on the WHL so he can be with his family and keep a foot in the game. He is coincidentally the highest paid scout in the org, taking home a salary of 2.2 Million for some reason.
3) See #1, but I’m hedging my bets. It all depends on the outcome of the grievance. If Kane wins, he comes back on a team friendly sweetheart deal because SJ is paying the full term of his old deal, signing a 3×3 to win a cup with Connor. If Kane loses, he goes full mercenary and signs with the highest bidding contender. If Kane doesn’t come back, I can see the team taking a run at Mason Marchment.
4) Hard no, but he gets ‘hurt’ by game 30 and is on LTIR until playoffs, when he comes back well rested to anchor the 3rd pair. Kind of a best of both worlds scenario, especially in terms of cap flexibility leading up to the deadline
5) The extension for Yamamoto is the most expensive signing this summer because Holland needs to shop in the bargain isle. Because he also has arbitration rights, it’s a really tricky situation. A close comparable would be someone like Robby Fabbri (similar size, similar draft pedigree, similar role albeit on a worse team). The AAV on Fabbri’s 3rd contract was 2.9 & his 4th contract is an even 4. Split the difference, say 3×3.5, which gives Moto 1 more year of RFA eligibility when the contract is done. It’s not a bargain, but it’s also not a cap-killer.
6) Barrie for Varlamov; Foegele and a 2nd in 2023 for Michael McLeod, because 2 highlanders are better than 1 (except for that highlander movie that had both Connor and Duncan. It was awful).
7) Yes, 3x 2.7. I used Mike Reilly’s 3×3 as a comparable and Kulak takes a hometown discount to stay.
8) Yes, finally, but it’s a similar situation to the first go around, where analytics is integrated as part of the coaching staff rather than exclusively by management. Holland continues to nap during all sessions where analytics are discussed.
9) Kassian, begrudgingly and only because Holland couldn’t find a trading partner. This buy-out happens in the 2nd window opened up by JP’s arbitration and the extra space is used to absorb the DeBrusk contract.
10) Marc Staal when Keith gets hurt. Staal goes unsigned all summer because he’s old. Holland signs him to a pro-rated 1×2 deal in order to have another veteran in the room.
11) On the books. Nobody is desperate to get to the cap floor or all that interested in doing the Oilers any favours.
1) Resigned. 2yrs x $2.75m per yr
2) Jack Campbell / Stuart Skinner
3) Yes. 5yrs x 6.5m
4) No.
5) Jack Campbell 6yrs $5.5m
6) Kassian. No one comes back.
7) Yes 4yrs x 2.75m per yr
8) No.
9) None.
10) None.
11) Traded.
1) Traded
2) Bobrovsky (50% retained), Skinner
3) Yes, 5mil x 6, SJ pays out a large portion of remaining contract.
4) No
5) Kane
6) Barrie for Bobrovsky….
Foegele, JP and 29th overall for Alex Tuch 16th overall pick….
Kassian for 4th round pick
7) Yes 2.5 mil x 5 years
8) No, too stubborn
9) None
10) None, until trade deadline
11) Traded
1) Jesse Puljujarvi will be traded.
2) Jack Campbell-Stuart Skinner (Mike Smith on LTIR but gets activated in February)
3) Kane does not sign in Edmonton.
4) Keith stays for another season.
5) Jack Campbell $4.75 million.
6) Tyson Barrie, Warren Foegele, Jesse Puljujarvi traded; Artem Zub, Sam Bennett, Scott Reedy in.
7) Brett Kulak signs for two years. $2.1 million AAV
8) Yes.
9) Zack Kassian.
10) Artem Zub.
11) Oscar sits.
You snuck that in the middle. For Puljujarvi?
That looks like a pretty good summer to me…
Oh, I’m not saying. 🙂 There were picks involved.
LT- What would your lines look like after those moves? Bennett on the wing or at centre?
Probably wing, but there are factors. Can McLeod play 3C? I’d prefer Nuge on LW.
In your opinion, what has to happen for JP not to be dealt?
I think they’re at a crossroads, but if Holland can’t get value in trade then JP could return. I’m leaning toward unlikely.
1) resigns
2) Smith/Skinner
3) Yes : 6X7.5
4) Yes
5) some guy: $ spent on Kane
6) Foegerle and Barrie
7) Yes : 3×4
8) No but they will “pretend” and promote within
9) Kassian
10) none
11) Sits
Basically Kane + Kulak overpays + internal growth and a few new meh guys
1) Nobody trades a King
2) Smith Skinner
3) Kane gets a settlement – 7.5M (4.5 Oil 3 Sharks) x 5
4) Nope. Everyone thinks he’s still great except us here
5) Kulak Bison Yama each 2.75M each
6) Foegele Kassian for McLeod and a 4th. Barrie for Mayfield. Nuge for a 1st
7) Yup 2.75M x 3
8) .5 of a proper dept
9) None
10) Mayfield
11) Sittin pretty
Kane 4.5 Connor Yama 2.75
Hyman Leo JP 2.75
Holloway R McLeod Ryan
Maxim Mamin 1.5 Johan Larson 1.6 M Mcleod
Shore Malone
Nurse Ceci
Kulak 2.75 Bouch
Keith Mayfield
Bro
Smith
Skinner
Today is a great day for Holland to ship some stuff and a air traffic controller to Winnipeg for one Hellinabuick.
Some forwards if available at #29
McGroarty
Snuggerud
Schaefer
Kulich
Ohgren
Ostlund
Beck
Lutz
Gaucher
Perevalov
Gleb Trikozov,
Under the heading “If the league really wanted more goals in the game”
Institute a rule that only 12 skate blades can be on the ice at any given time. In other words each player must get off the ice completely before the next player can jump over the boards.
I know it would wreak havoc with on the fly line changes, but it would also create a lot more offensive opportunities, and it would clarify the too many men rule; make it easier to administer.
“The NHL upholds that the game 7 Overtime winner was a good goal as the avalanche player (Makar, Cale) skated with only one skate touching the ice and strategically jumping to avoid too
many man in the ice at what time.
ps. What incredible hockey IQ”
Some D-men if available at # 29
Bichsel
Pickering
Chesley
Rinzel
Bouchard is going to be Ike wine he’s going to age well all he needs is time. Once Bouchard establishes himself on the PP1 he will be top 3-5 D scorer in the league for years to come. As for McLeod if can become the 3C shutdown Centre that kills PP and wins Face-offs at crucial times I’ll be over the moon and his 15-18 Goals will be a bonus.
The Al Arbour line that stands out the most to me is “If you can assure me that Bossy isn’t scared, then take him,”
The first thing one might think is , “well that was era specific” and that General Managers are less concerned about oveall toughness anymore. To which I say Pshaw!
Whenever we use contorversial terms (none of which I’ll list here because they’ll get caught in the bad words filter), we always get in trouble becuase “WE DONT DEFINE OUR TERMS”
Mike Bossy was notably legendary for refusing to fight. Mike Bossy was NOT scared. To the contrary, Mike Bossy was BRAVE.
By the very nature of the game, 100% of NHL players are “tougher” than 95% of the general public.
What are the characteristics that define the word “tough” for you in today’s game?
Mmmm – me playing D in adult league no shoulder pads. My wife might have a word besides ‘tough’ to describe that 🙂 🙂 Is that even a characteristic ?
Mike Bossy was the purest Goal Scorer the game has ever seen. He is way underrated when they talk about the greats, his short career probably as some to do with it. I hated the islanders with a passion from Goring,Tonnelli Trottier Gillis to Potvin Smith etc the one player you couldn’t hate was Bossy who made the hardest thing in Hockey to do which is scoring look so smooth and easy.
Willingness to take the hit to make the play. Go to the areas where you know you are going to get hit in order to score. Mental toughness is the real ‘tough’.
So, a huge amount of speculation on the Winnipeg Jets this morning in the wake of PLD saying he will not re-sign in Winnipeg.
Tyler Yaremchuk
@tyleryaremchuk
Wheeler and Scheifele rumours, Dubois wanting to be a UFA in two years… doesn’t it make you wonder if the Jets should just tear it all down?
They have some pieces that would get them some serious hauls (Ehlers, Hellebuyck)
It seems to me that Hellebuyck could be the missing piece that could get the Oilers much closer to winning a cup.
Wondering what folks here think would be required to acquire him?
The first thing would be Smith retiring. Probably this year’s 1st and next year’s 1st as a starting point. One of Broberg, Holloway, or Bourgault would be on the ask as well.
And, of course, Edmonton would have to offer more than some teams in order to get Winnipeg to take some cap back for Kassian or like.
It’s a bold move at a ‘bold move’ time for the Oilers. Pretty sure Chevy’s phone is ringing non-stop today.
Is this team at ‘go time’ if they don’t re-sign Kane of similar?
Perhaps make it an even bigger deal?
PLD is an RFA with arbitration rights with a QO of $6.6 million and I can’t imagine the Jets want to keep him now that he has said he wants out.
He could replace the Kane minutes (28G 60P) and likely would improve on those numbers playing with the Oilers.
2022 1ST
2023 1ST
Holloway
Broberg
The Oilers might be able to sign PLD to a more team friendly number on a long tern deal which would make a lot of sense since he’s only 23 but they would want to know that before pulling the trigger.
Are you saying both Dubois and Hellebuyck for that?
And man do I want that goalie but spelling that name every time could be the death of me…
Yes….both.
Dubois is already what Holloway might become but is 6’3″ 220.
Given that the Oilers picks are likely to be near the end of the 1st round I think you would need to add Broberg to get Winnipeg interested.
In the short term, Dubois replaces Kane and also provides insurance at centre.
I’d do that deal for sure.
Four first round picks/players for Hellebuyck and a player who wants out of every where he plays? What are the odds he’d want to stay in Edmonton. I’d do it for Hellebuck and Connor or Elhers, but not Dubois.
I’ll take the 2 cups they’d be likely to win with that level of goalie and not worry about the late first round picks.
Given that they’ll be up against the cap, they can always trade some “playoff tested” players for picks later to cut salary if they need them.
Did you just admit Edmonton is going to finish among the top teams in the league the next 2 years?
” 2022 1ST
2023 1ST
Holloway
Broberg”
Not a chance. PLD starting to appear to be a headcase. Besides 4 1st for a player 2 yrs from UFA. I’m glad you are not our GM. Destroying our depth for a headcase. Way to think this through.
Hellebuyck is a UFA in 2 years as well. Love to have him, but that cost is too high for only 2 guaranteed years of Hellebucyk and Dubois at at least $13 million of cap space per season. It is possible it is a sign and trade situation with Dubois, which could change things if he agreed to longer with the Oilers. Still, I’d want to substitute Samorukov for Broberg, or maybe they take Barrie instead to help with the Oilers’ cap space, and that would give the Oilers leave the Oilers the opportunity to balance their line up.
You can’t sign an extension until the last year of a deal though, right?
So it’s impossible to have certainty beyond 2 years with either player, unfortunately.
I believe PLD will be RFA in a few weeks, but has told Winnipeg he won’t sign with them for more than 2 seasons which takes him to UFA. The Jets could get more for him if the can arrange a sign and trade with a team that PLD would want to go longer term with. His QO is $6.5 MM.
Of course. I was forgetting he’s an RFA.
He’s not of any particular interest to the Oilers anyway, Hellebuyck is the one who fits a major need.
Re: Hellebuyck – I remain torn as to whether a great goalie behind a decent defense is better than a decent goalie behind a great defense (assuming limited dollars to spend)
I’d love to have Helly back there but at what expense?
What would the cap hit be to resign him. He’s at $6.1M now, less excited if we have to pay a huge price + $10M to resign him in 2 years.
At some point, you have to push your chips in to the middle of the table to take the next step toward a cup and figure out the future when it comes.
Both this year’s cup finalists have done this, Tampa repeatedly, so the template is there.
Tampa has been a contender for several years and won a Cup before they began mortgaging the future for today.
They didn’t become a contender mortgaging the future.
Wrong.
1st round picks since the 2013 draft:
2013:Jonathan Drouin traded 2017
2014: Tony DeAngelo traded 2017
2016: Brett Howden traded 2018
Also traded from the 2016 draft three second round picks ..Libor Hayek, Taylor Raddish, Boris Katchouk
2019: Nolan Foote
Tampa had no 1st round picks in 2015, 2018, 2020 and 2021 because they traded them.
They’ve been mortgaging the future for a very long time
Tampa has been a contender since 2014-2015. (playing in the Stanley Cup finals qualifies). Those trades are all post becoming a contender.
The key to the Cooper era was all of the AHL guys he brought with him like Killorn and Palat, Gudas.
Your first two examples completely miss the mark. Jonathan Drouin and Tony DeAngelo were traded away for reasons other than to try and win now. Drouin was suspended for refusing to report to the farm and had made trade demands. Yzerman did well to get Sergachev for him. I don’t think for a second Yzerman considered that trade mortgaging the future. When Yzerman drafted DeAngelo, he was aware of DeAngelo’s off ice issues and believed “he’ll change and grow up”. After he became apparent that wasn’t happening in a timely manner based on his conduct in the AHL, he was traded for a second round draft pick. Clearly Yzerman also did not think that trade was mortgaging his future to get better now.
I think this is where I land as well. Timing is everything in a cap league so it is important to get it right. You don’t want to wait too long to go for it but you want as many shots as you can get because they don’t come around just because its ‘your turn’ either so when to trade away the future for the now has to rank as one of the most important decisions a GM makes. We’ve seen what happens when an owner or GM gets antsy and moves too soon.
So is this the summer to go all in?
Personally I don’t think it is.
Sekera, Lucic, Keith and Klefbom come off the cap next summer and, yes, I know Klef’s hit is different but it still impacts.
There is a young group who might pop this season and make me look too cautious but Broberg, Holloway, Bouchard, Skinner and Bourgault (yes, I include him) are all guys who have the potential to be important parts of this team this season or next. If they all hit – and the odds say that is not likely – does that fill all the roster spots for a top 4 team in the league?
Will Kane be back? That might change my thinking too because as much as I love what Woody & Manson brought to the team there is no doubt in my mind that Kane played a huge role as well.
We are all thrilled that the team made it to the third round but it is important to remember they were almost out in the first round. Without luck is it fair to say that the first & second rounds were really 6 game series for the Oilers? Does that scream that it is go time? These are questions I hope Holland and team are asking themselves.
And just to be clear I am not advocating sitting around waiting for things to happen. I want Holland out beating the bushes looking for upgrades.
The question I am wondering about is if this is the time to go all in or is this the season to add and refine the mix according to how the new coaching staff wants to play the game with an eye to the TD for a run and then go all in next summer?
Pretty sure many will regard this as too cautious but while I am in favour of trading this year’s 1st and even next year’s first this summer I think the core of prospects mentioned above are close enough to ready that they can be part of a cup run so I am reluctant move them given that we have no cap space to use them to trade for ‘name’ players.
The danger in the cautious approach and waiting another year is that the Pacific Division won’t be standing still.
LA in particular is poised to take a big step forward with a bunch of cap space and that prospect pool.
We don’t know yet what Vegas and Calgary will look like but I can’t imagine they will fold.
As well, burning another year off the McDavid and Draisaitl contracts likely narrows the window to win.
Not waiting. Said I wasn’t waiting. Don’t think it is an all in year. The problem is cap space. You can propose every ‘name’ player in the league to solve a problem the Oilers have. They can’t pay him. When you start posting trade proposals with cap hits attached I am prepared to reconsider.
PLD has never scored 30 and highest point total has been 61 pts. Constant minus player, he’s over-rated.
Nope.
Career: 361GP 102G 239P PLUS 8.
xG% 6 seasons:
55.11
54.10
54.11
52.77
48.46 (PDO .976)
52.50
His only season below par was his first in Winnipeg where he admittedly had issues adjusting to new systems.
This is the kind of 23 year old player Joe Sakic would pounce on. (and he might)
http://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20212022&thruseason=20212022&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=oi&rate=n&v=p&playerid=8479400
I certainly hope the Avs do sign him. Or maybe your Canucks can sign him? Too bad those deals for Myers and OEL are hampering any signing, including JT Miller hah! He’ll be a bad over pay, almost as bad as Boeser’s next contract.
You’re absolutely correct!
I wonder if Puljujarvi, 2022 1st and 2023 1st would be in range.
It feels as though that might not be enough, but thinking of previous trades for high end goalies I’m not so sure.
Thinking of Kuemper, and both Luongo trades. Must be some other relevant examples I’m missing.
Books are for nerds but here’s the link to The Road to HockeyTown because it’s not even streaming on Netflix or anything.
Prospectiphoria!
Shawinigan enters tonight’s game vs. Hamilton as the only undefeated team in the Memorial Cup so far, and a win tonight would put The Bourg & Co. in the “Cat”bird seat for playoff positioning. An outright win for SHA would mean only Saint John can catch them, and those two teams square off Saturday in the round-robin finale.
Meanwhile, The Bourg’s playoffs have been productive, as he’s rung up 13-11-24 in 17 games (Q playoffs + Mem Cup combined). If he keeps up this torrid run, he could become the first Oilers prospect to win Memorial Cup MVP honours since Draisaitl in 2015.
Puck drop @ 4 p.m. Vimy time.
The thing they need to teach Bouchard is power skating. I’ve notice he gets caught flat-footed a bit. But when he moves his feet quickly under him, he’s extremely mobile and can chase down nearly anyone. It’s just that initial burst/bad crossover/not moving his feet issue that I, personally, think he has.
Other than that, great pick.
LT, I know you generally favor long term deals for good young players, you talk about it often. I fully agree that it’s often the best course in the big picture.
I wonder though if that outlook does/should change a bit when in the midst of an ‘all-in window’?
Looking at the current Oilers, all of Bouchard, McLeod, Puljujarvi and Yamamoto would be players you’d like to lock up long term, to have them (hopefully) on value contracts down the road. But the flip side is a higher cap hit over the next 2-4 years vs. signing them to bridge deals.
Looking just at next season (and excluding Bouch since he’s already signed for next year), the 3 forwards are likely to cost about $7M total on bridges, but more like $11-$12M on long term deals.
Is that extra $4-5M for the next couple of years (Kane, goalie) worth the risk of paying more later?
Every team that’s won multiple cups in the cap era has done so with core of 4-5 players and regular turnover of the rest of the roster. The Oilers have half their cap allocated to McDavid, Drai, Nurse, Nuge and Hyman. They’ll probably extend Bouchard long term as soon as they can, adding him to the core, but that means 6 players eating more than half the cap.
They simply can’t pay every good player on the team what they’re worth – they need some extreme value contracts. The easiest way to do that is squeezing the young players as much as the CBA allows, then moving them on when they start earning closer to their market value and replacing them with a new batch of young players.
Signing RFAs to long term deals moves cap hit to the front of the deal in exchange for (the team hopes) a value contract for the back end of the deal. That doesn’t help a capped out team in the middle of its Cup window at all. What does is replacing players like Puljujarvi, Yamamoto and McLeod as soon as you have to start paying close to market value for them and replacing them with younger, cheaper versions, which is what we’ve seen Tampa, Pittsburg, Chicago, even Toronto do to keep their Cup window open.
I don’t know if I would include McLeod in that group if he is being groomed for 3C since that is a key position imo.
I agree with your general premise though. My question is if Holland can get one more low cost contract for Yamo or Puljujarvi before that happens.
It depends how much McLeod pops over the course of his next contract. Jared McCann isn’t a bad comp for McLeod but McCann took longer to emerge as a 3C than seems to be the case with McLeod. If McLeod starts scoring in his second contract the way that McCann did in his third then McLeod could end up pricing himself out of a third contract with the Oilers.
I for one am shocked, SHOCKED…well, not that shocked that the Avs got away with an obvious too many men call in OT. The league sure wants them to win.
It’ll probably be rationalized something like, “well, the number of players on the ice just represented how much they wanted to win.”
The yanks have a funny view. That’s why they have asterisks.
Read a comment from someone stating how the Bolts had 7 skaters on the ice just seconds before that, so perhaps the refs were letting things slide. This same comment mentioned the Bolts getting the benefit last year when playing the Isles in game 7, scoring when clearly having 6 players on the ice.
I’m not saying it’s good officiating, it’s garbage. I just think all teams get away with some BS on their way to the cup. I think this final has seen some teeeeerrible reffing.
Just cheapens it a bit, if the Oil win, I hope it’s not because the league finally put the thumb on our side of the scale.
The refs let go a lot of calls at the end of the 3rd period and OT for both teams — e.g. Checking from behind/boarding for both teams, Hedman hooking the hands on Avs breakaway — so not a lot of grounds for complaint on the (fairly minor) too many men.
How is it minor when Kadri gets over 40 feet from the bench and receives a pass while McKinnon is still on the ice? You don’t mention it but others have pointed out that Tampa had 7 players that were on the ice at that time, but it doesn’t compare, since the two that came on did so while the two going off were within 5 feet of the bench and none of those 4 are close to the puck and affecting the play. Their change was exactly within the rules.
The Kadri play ran afoul of both criteria on bad line changes: he went well before MacKinnon was anywhere close to within 5 feet of the bench and touched the puck definitely before Mackinnon had left the ice. Even if the claim is he was going on for Nichushkin, since Nichuskin stayed on, Kadri touching the puck while 6 skaters are on the ice is a direct violation of the rule.
The NHL is not saying this wasn’t too many men. Their statement was the officials didn’t see it and it is not a reviewable play under the rules. Tampa are pretty much the victim of shit happens, but it is just another example of very poor officiating by the NHL.
@Redbird
The 3 , (2tampa and 1 av were all the same distance from the bench)
If i knew how to post pictures here id show you lol
But the rules are different for the team playing the puck. The two Tampa players leaving the ice were replaced by two players still well back of the puck carrier and not affecting the play. That is specifically in the rules as a legal change. Further, the two Tampa players didn’t jump on until the skaters they were replacing were within or very close to being within 5 feet of the bench. MacKinnon’s replacement Kadri was actually carrying the puck at the time of the picture with MacKinnon still on the ice. That is specifically written in the rules as not being allowed. Same with Mackinnon being 40 feet from the bench when Kadri jumped on. That is not even close to being a judgement call.
This is no different than an offside being missed and a goal scored. Used to happen often enough, though only following a big miss in a playoff game, did the league decide it could be video reviewed (2015). Oddly enough it was Tampa involved in that game scoring an OT winner in those playoffs that was clearly offside. The philosophy before was this happens, oh well, the officials aren’t perfect – even Briere being 8 feet offside in a 2012 playoff game didn’t get them to make offsides reviewable.
Redbird62, I hear you and agree it was a penalty. I just think it was minor compared with the Hedman hook on the hands on a breakaway (and other examples). I also think we have to watch out for a tendency to overblow an infraction that leads to a goal (as the too many men) and be too lenient on one that prevents a goal (breakaway hook).
I think we have all seen far worse line changes.
In the pantheon of ‘bad calls or non-calls that have led to series changing results’ I didn’t see this one as anything special.
Did anybody even notice it or mention it until Cooper decided to turn it into a thing to motivate his players or influence the reffing for the next game during his presser?
Numerous ex-officials have weighed in and said it’s a nothing burger….and happens several times every game.
I watched it a few times. I didn’t see that it impacted the play in any significant manner. It isn’t like McKinnon was involved or there was a TB player taken out of the play by him being on the ice.
Far worse happens in pretty much every game of the season imo.
Game winning goals from illegal plays happen several times a game?
Actually, with the standard of reffing, it wouldn’t surprise me, tbh.
I bet the line change part happens often in a game. But the part that doesn’t happen often in a game is the one where the player gets 20-40 foot head start on another player and then touches the puck and then goes in to score. That part where the player coming off the bench touches the puck before the player he is changing for is off the ice is generally when they call a Too Many Men Penalty. Granted officials do miss these from time to time. When officials call it a nothing burger when it is absolutely a clear advantage is standard for NHL officials… you know it is a penalty but because we miss it so many times it isn’t really a penalty.
Imagine if 97 was given a 40 foot head start coming off the bench… it would be breakaway season all year long!
The Av’s have been gifted calls all spring it’s like the Refs have bought into all the hype how good the Av’s are. The Oilers series was officiated lopsided until game 4 then they gave us some mercy calls since we were down 3-0 in the series. If I’m Tampa I’m expecting the Refs to give them the benefit of the calls since they are the defending champs on the brink of being eliminated.
The Av’s have been gifted the refs fair whistle for 5 years straight now.
Yes, this – it needs to be amplified. Embarrassing for the league. Maybe it’s the thin air?
I don’t see Bouchard as “rushed to the NHL” – Full junior career, 20 year old season in the AHL – 2021-22 was weird as he practiced all season and played in 14 NHL and then a regular at 22. This seems about right for a top 10 draft pick. – LT what should the organization done differently?
I believe LT means the 7 NHL games to start his draft +1 season. Otherwise, no, he definitely hasn’t been rushed.