Would I Lie to You?

by Lowetide

One of the great fascinations in the game of hockey is the annual draft of players into the NHL. My curiosity about it began around 1971 and has developed into a lifelong curiosity for this hockey fan. How do you build a Stanley Cup winner? The answer is that you can do it many ways, but even if you trade your way to the championship there are quality assets required to make those deals. Ladies and gentlemen, the draft.

THE ATHLETIC!

LOWETIDE VERSUS THE OILERS, 2015

The Oilers scouts drafted FOUR players who have emerged as NHL regulars. That’s an actual mountain of players in one draft year. I would discount the feat because McDavid was No. 1 overall and the 2015 draft was the best of the century, but even with that the scouts delivered impressively in later rounds. My list grabbed a player who made the NHL in every round, so there should be some kind of reward, but Edmonton had a better draft by some margin.

From the men who Edmonton traded, Duncan Keith, Warren Foegele and Shane Lachance are either on the current roster that made the final four, or bubbling under as prospects.

LOWETIDE VERSUS THE OILERS, 2016

This is the year my list got quite a bit of attention, but in reality I should have had DeBrincat higher. I knew it, too, kind of hedged my bets like a fool. I would go too far the other way in later years, but in the case of 2016 my list would have delivered two quality players. Edmonton has a nice player in Markus Niemelainen coming up, I remain flummoxed by that third round. I liked Berglund plenty, though. Desharnais may make his NHL debut this coming season.

Jesse Puljujarvi is going to have a fine career, there’s just too much there with this player. So much happens in your youth, you develop friendships and the world lets you know who you are. In JP’s case, he’s a unique individual in a world that demands uniformity. What’s more, he is unique with no attitude, no edge, no axe to grind, so the world of hockey is completely flummoxed by him. He’ll find his way, there’s simply too much. I find myself hoping he gets a full year with Jay Woodcroft as coach, but that may not be possible.

LOWETIDE VERSUS THE OILERS, 2017

I give the edge to Edmonton here, Yamamoto has a 20-goal season and is more established and both Skinner and Samorukov could have productive careers. I have three names who have made the grade, and all have some promise, but none of them have done something like score 20 in a single season. Race isn’t over.

LOWETIDE VERSUS THE OILERS, 2018

Edmonton has this year won already, and I like my list plenty. Bouchard had 43 points last season, and he’s going to get more power-play time in the years to come. McLeod also occupies a prominent spot and seems destined to be the team’s third-line centre for years to come. I remain convinced of Ty Smith despite an uneven year, and Fagemo is a quality prospect. Oilers win going away.

LOWETIDE VERSUS THE OILERS, 2019

We don’t have enough to make the call, and Broberg is just getting started so we’ll have to wait for a time. I received some criticism about my choice of Kaliyev (I had him high in the first round and he went in the second round) but learned from the DeBrincat ranking that players like Kaliyev are going to succeed at the highest levels. The bubbling under group hasn’t yet emerged, but Lavoie, Blumel, Robertson and Murray are pushing.

LOWETIDE VERSUS OILERS, 2020

The Oilers had one helluva draft in 2020, and we could see the first four names make the NHL eventually. This was Tyler Wright’s first draft, and he and the scouts did a fine job. Dawson Mercer had a solid rookie season, while Holloway spent the first half of the year injured. Mercer is going to be a good one, but the first four names on the Oilers list are quality. I think this draft may one day resemble the 2015 draft (four in the show) or the 2016 draft (two men playing feature roles).

LOWETIDE VERSUS THE OILERS, 2021

Xavier Bourgault is the big name here, he looks like a close fascimile of Jordan Eberle 20 years ago based on eye and numbers. I’d bet on him being the class of the group. Luca Munzenberger remains big and mobile, but it’s so damn hard to judge college defensemen there won’t be much to say about him for another year or two. Jake Chiasson had an injury-plagued season. Matvey Petrov delivered in a big way and is one of Edmonton’s best prospects now, which is incredible. Too soon to know about Lachance and Wanner but they are matricualating.

My list is led by the undersized Russian Chibrikov, who played well in the MHL and VHL this past season. He’s on track, but isn’t Bourgault’s equal at this time. Olivier Nadeau is a bull in a china shop and had a strong QMJHL season, over a point per game. Eric Alarie is another big forward, he’s eligible for this year’s draft and scored 25 goals in the WHL this season. Lorenzo Canonica had another solid year in the QMJHL (he’s a center) but is behind Nadeau by quite a bit now. Will need to catch up. Sami Paivarinta made it all the way to the Liiga this year (2-4-6 in 34 games) and is draft eligible this season. Math still likes him. Jacob Guevin is a RHD, speedy and skilled, plays in the USHL. Eligible for 2022 draft.

THE DAYS AHEAD

Ken Holland is going to be busy, and the draft isn’t going to be the headliner this summer in Edmonton. The first-round selection and some of the team’s good prospects may be in play. The club is probably working on ways to secure Evander Kane and Brett Kulak, and running down No. 1 goalie possibilities. Cap room is also a big deal, and I do think men like Tyson Barrie (could Seattle take him on with no cap coming back?), Warren Foegele (is there a market out there?), Zack Kassian and others could be on the move.

There is much talk about trading Duncan Keith, having another team buy him out, and then re-signing the veteran. My own feeling is the NHL may allow the trade, but not the re-signing. You may argue precedent, but for me the NHL is so inconsistent counting on this working is perhaps unwise. I do endorse the idea of trading Keith this summer. Not certain of the sweetener but that could be a major hurdle.

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OriginalPouzar

Friedman with a blurb on all teams and some solid stuff on the Oiler including Keith’s return “could go either way” and the McDavid/Drai playoffs changed the way players look at this team in a bit positive way:

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/32-thoughts-whats-up-with-every-team-heading-into-the-nhl-draft/

jp

That Holland has talked to Keith 3 times already (from DNB) certainly suggests there are real discussions going on.

OriginalPouzar

Anxious to get Brian Lawton back in the org.

Will note, when on with Stauff last week, Stauff asked if he’d been in conversation with the Oilers over the last few months and he said he had not although he had been in conversation with the somewhat recently.

He also confirmed, 100%, he wasn’t going back to the NHL network – he likes his time there but its not what he wants to do going forward, its not his passion. He’ll definitely be joining an NHL team.

Coilers2021

I’m curious to know why the love for Brian Lawton? Is there something in his CV that suggests he’s the answer to Edmonton’s needs?

€√¥£€^$

Came across an article in the Athletic regarding Habs draft options. Interestingly, the intriguing Lane Huston brought an Endocrinologists report showing his Endocrine Profile to all his interviews. It shows that he has 18 more months of growth left.

FYI, at the combine he was measured at 5’ 8.25” and 158 lbs (+10 lbs from last season). His father is 5’11” and his USHL-playing brother (Muskegeon’s top scorer and BU commit) is almost exactly 2 years older (Jan birthdays) and is listed at 5’11” 171 lbs.

FWIW, while digging through the Ol’ Al Gore, it seems that Quinn was listed at 5’8” 139 lbs at 17, but the timeline is unclear to me. He was listed at 5’10” 161 lbs in a Penticton Bee’s news release date Jan 31, 2020.

Cale Makar is listed at 5’11” 187 lbs (listed as 5’10’ 187 lbs when drafted), but he sure plays bigger. If there is any draft prospect that has Makar’s traits, it would be Hutson, IMO. The question is, will he grow more? And is that possibility worth a chance in the first round. I wonder if Makar has tipped the scales for Hutson.

FWIW, my target at #29 is still Noah Warren.

Last edited 2 years ago by €√¥£€^$
Diablo

I don’t usually chime in on the quasi medical talk that goes on around here … I just want to come here and be a hockey fan for 10-15 minutes a day, after which I go back to the never ending pile of tests and reports in my EMR. Some of the stuff is kinda of amusing too.

But this one is just so fantastical that I feel compelled to comment … as an MD-PhD I can tell you with complete confidence that there is no endocrine marker or combination of markers that is specific or sensitive enough to accurately predict how much more a late teenager will grow.

If a player (or his agent) was bringing that BS to his interviews I’d be very wary about taking that kid.

Diablo

And I don’t mean to attack you or anything … I’m interested that you brought that up in fact. I frequently have to dispel fantastical medical ideas that people get mostly from online sources in my practice, but also from some sketchy clinics in the US and Mexico that will tell people whatever they want to hear and provide them with very official looking documents for large private fees.

It’s informative for me when stuff like this comes up on my radar … it almost certainly will come up in some way in a future patient encounter.

€√¥£€^$

No worries, I do not remotely feel like I was being attacked or anything of the sort. I completely understand your perspective and intentions. And thank you for your service, you have my respect. FYI, as 20 vet of the CAF and a public servant for 30+ years, I know how much you have meant to the communities you have served.

I’ve always been fascinated by human heights. I noticed at an early age that my mother did the height prediction at 2 yrs old where you double the child’s height to predict their adult height. In my baby book, which I have in my possession, it says I would grow to be 10’4”.

As a well-read 6 year old, who was also advanced in my math skills, I was well-aware that my mother was not good at math and was not aware that no human on record was even 9’ tall, lol. So this kind of thing has had my attention for close to 50 yrs.

€√¥£€^$

Excellent, this is exactly the kind of feedback I hoping for, as I know there are several medical professionals reading this blog.

I recall reading a story about Yao Ming many years ago where he said a podiatrist told his already extra-tall parents informed them their extra-large child, based on his examination of his feet, was going to be an extremely tall human.

Thinking of Colton Parayko, etc, who saw that coming? The 6’6” Michael Jordan and no known relative being over 6’ and his famously late growth spurt. Dennis Rodman, the Raptor’s Chris Boucher, fascinating stories to me.how else can one determine future growth. I thought it was interesting, but wasn’t sure of how truthful/reliable this was.

Excerpt from June 28th article by Arpon Basu & Marc Antoine Godwin is here:

“But Hutson’s size remains a serious hurdle, one he is trying to knock down. Hutson spoke to 16 teams at the NHL Scouting Combine — including the Canadiens — and he brought each of those teams a report from an endocrinologist measuring his bone age and suggesting he has roughly 18 months of growth left in him.
Hutson’s older brother is 5-foot-11, his father is 5-foot-11, and he’s hopeful that’s how tall he will be as well once he’s done growing. But right now, he’s 5-foot-8. If he were 5-foot-11 right now, the reality is he probably would have spoken to closer to 30 teams at the combine instead of only receiving interest from half the league.”

Thank you for the response!

Diablo

I found what you were talking about when reading Sportsnet… Hutson is brought a medical report stating that his epiphyseal plates have not yet closed. Not sure why an endocrinologist is involved … a radiologist would be the one who actually interpreted the imaging … but yes it’s possible he hasn’t stopped growing. Epiphyseal plates close later for boys, typically between 15-17 but it’s always possible to be an outlier 3 standard deviations, where the closure happens at age 18-19.

On an x-ray you can see a line between the growth plate and the rest of the long bone … when the epiphyseal plate closes, that line disappears and the end of the bone becomes fully contiguous with the shaft. It’s pretty clear cut … BUT by itself is not predictive of just how much growth there is left to occur. The team selecting him would be taking a risk … he may only have another inch to grow, before the growth plates close. Just because his brother is 5’11” is also by itself not an accurate proxy either … extrapolating one kids size based on a siblings has some variability to it.

Last edited 2 years ago by Diablo
Diablo

Still he’s pretty light … until the epiphyseal plates close, a human doesn’t really start to pack weight on their frame. He’s going to be a longer term project while he waits to fill out his frame.

I wonder if NHL teams take x-rays of the prospects femurs to see if their plates have closed? It’s such an easy way to see if a player has finished growing yet or not.

leadfarmer

So if the league isn’t gonna let teams have any positives from those legacy contracts they should at least decrease some of the negatives. Players cap hit should be up to max double the salary

jp

I was thinking about the Oilers, where they came from (DoD), and how they’re (finally) a pretty consistently decent team now. And hopefully consistently more than that going forward.

Here’s each season’s league rank for the Oilers, standings points (or pro-rated points, for shortened seasons), and goal differential (also pro-rated when appropriate), across the last 4 GMs.

Tambellini
08-09 21st 85pts -16
09-10 30th 62pts -72 (recall only 30 teams at this point)
10-11 30th 62pts -69
11-12 29th 74pts -25
12-13 24th 77pts -14

MacTavish
13-14 28th 67pts -68
14-15 28th 62pts -83

Chiarelli
15-16 29th 70pts -43 (still 30 teams)
16-17 7th 103pts +36
17-18 23rd 78pts -33
18-19 25th 79pts -43

Holland
19-20 12th 96pts +9
20-21 11th 105pts +42
21-22 11th 104pts +34

16-17 under Chiarelli was so promising, but the other 3 years were pure garbage. They clearly have turned a corner now. We want more, but it’s really nice to have come this far at least.

hunter1909

Keep JP and let Woodcroft bring him up to scratch, as he matures into his hockey career.

He’s a great young player, and fans of other teams are salivating at the thought of stealing him for a lousy 2nd round pick(or worse).

OriginalPouzar

Woody was on the Oilers bench for the Jesse’s toughest stretch in the org a few years back and his toughest stretch during his 2-year return.

I think Woody does value the player and what he brings and has no issues with the person or player and playing him up the lineup but the above is a statement of fact – what it means, if anything, I don’t know.

LostBoy

So for the much-discussed Dunan Keith scenario, I agree it would be an idea to just ask Bill Daly first.

That said, the league made a fuss of investigating the Orpik situation, and apparently either it wasn’t a conscious plan or at least everybody pretended to believe it wasn’t a conscious plan. That’s the upshot of stories like this about it:

https://www.nbcsports.com/washington/capitals/caps-cleared-any-wrongdoing-after-nhl-investigates-brooks-orpiks-trade-buyout-and-re

…but it’s pretty clear that the league wasn’t planning to allow this as a legitimate tactic. The fact that Orpik is the only player to have this happen under the current CBA strongly suggests if anyone has asked, they’ve been told no.

It’s a bit of a grey area. I get that you can’t buy a player out and re-sign him under the CBA as the league views that as potential cap circumvention. But if you’re taking some kind of asset hit to pay someone else to do it…how is that really different from paying someone for cap room by moving a contract, or paying someone to take your LTIR problem? Like, the capitals did end up with Orpik and $4.5m in cap savings. But they had to give up Grubauer to do it.

But it sure seems that it’s not allowed. Some stories mention that the Orpik situation was let go because Sakic was shown to have been shopping him to other teams before sending him back to Washington, so there was a defense that it wasn’t premeditated.

Last edited 2 years ago by LostBoy
Randle McMurphy

“There is much talk about trading Duncan Keith, having another team buy him out, and then re-signing the veteran. My own feeling is the NHL may allow the trade, but not the re-signing. You may argue precedent, but for me the NHL is so inconsistent counting on this working is perhaps unwise.”

Agree that you cannot count on this for the reasons you’ve stated. But I would fully endorse seeking pre-approval from the NHL (and/or moving on this very early so that in case the League veto’s the deal, you still have time to react/refocus) 

OriginalPouzar

There has been suggestions from, first, fans (I believe the first in this community), then the media (Gregor) but no indication that org is even thinking about this or would even want to do it.

When Gregor wrote about it, it was just a thought/suggestion (and he never gave credit to where he likely read it from – it was out there for weeks on sights like this).

I’m not sure that Keith would be amenable to the concept even if it put a few more dollars in his pocket – agreeing to be traded to the Yotes for the purposes of a buyout? This is a first ballot hockey hall of fame player and one of the top d-men of the last generation. I think he’s a proud guy, and a guy that still thinks he has game left (and does) and I’m not sure he wants, or should be OK having, that blemish on his legacy.

I’m just postulating – he very well may be fine with it but I could see him going “no thanks” if its suggested by management.

Randle McMurphy

Tampa Bay sign 27 yr old Nick Paul to a 7 yr $3.15m AVV contract

They seem to really value the Corey Perry, Patrick Maroon, Nick Paul type of player.

#Physical

#Edge

#Agression

Last edited 2 years ago by Randle McMurphy
jp

They seem to really value the Corey Perry, Patrick Maroon, Nick Paul type of player.

Well they only value the other two at $1M a piece…

Randle McMurphy

True. But they delivered ALOT more than $1m of value

jp

Totally. Just that it’s easy to value them when they are OK playing for close to league min.

Reja

There true value is in the Playoffs.

€√¥£€^$

Age

Physical

Edge

•. Fixed it for you 😀

pts2pndr

To those that are intending on coming to Penticton for the Young Stars Tournament. There has been a great deal of change since the last Young Stars. New Hotel the Fairfield on Eckhardt approx 5 minute walk to the South Okanagan Events Centre. If craft breweries are your thing there are now five within a five minute stagger from the intersection of Westminster and Main which is a 5 – 10 minute walk from the Events centre for me and I have short legs. I’m a relative newcomer to Penticton ( 17 years ) but it apparently takes 30 to be considered a permanent resident 😉. Anything that I can help fellow Lowtide people with let me know and I will do my best to accommodate!

€√¥£€^$

I’ve gone there in 2014 & 2018 and and planning to go this Fall. I like to go to B&B’s, gives my better half, despite her recent energized interest in the team, more to look forward to.

We don’t drink, but we will likely visit a winery or two, so we have a ready supply of house warming gifts on hand.

This prospect crop is the most intriguing/interesting in the history of this organization, IMHO.

defmn

Fairfield is sold out. I assume that is where the teams are going to stay now.

Randle McMurphy

In an article from Paulina Dedaj

The value of Russian born prospects may have just gone down.

In an article from Paulina Dedaj:

“Philadelphia Flyers prospect Ivan Fedotov was taken into custody by Russian authorities Friday for allegedly planning to evade military service, according to Russian media. 

Fedotov, who represented the Russian Olympic Committee in the 2022 Winter Olympic Games in Beijing, was taken into custody by members of Russia’s criminal investigation department outside an ice rink in Kupchino and taken to a military registration and enlistment office, according to Russian news outlet Fontanka.

According to The Philadelphia Inquirer, the Russian team’s close ties with the Russian military and government mean that his departure to the NHL could be interpreted as a violation of Russian law, as members of the team are considered official military personnel.”

Draft Lists may have to be re-evaluated.

Last edited 2 years ago by Randle McMurphy
Harpers Hair

I read an article this morning that said many NHL GMs hoped their Russian players would not return home for the summer.

They fear they may not be able to leave.

meanashell11

Just wait until they try to get visas to play in the US. I said this months ago…..

Diablo

Do we know if Petrov and Samorukov went back to Russia after their seasons were over?

The Russian kids in this draft are going to slide, which may favour the Oilers picking late in the first round.

OriginalPouzar

I know that Sammy went to the Dominican in mid-June – where he’s gone after that, I don’t know.

We do know these two players have no contract with the KHL teams that hold their rights – as far as military requirements, I have no idea.

OriginalPouzar

Its helpful that Petrov has already played in the CHL and isn’t under contract with any KHL team and is under contract with the Oilers.

Side

Not sure if this has been posted yet:

https://www.nbcsports.com/philadelphia/flyers/flyers-ivan-fedotov-detained-russia-allegedly-evading-military-service-report

Apparently Ivan’s lawyer is saying Ivan was injected with something and is now in hospital with illness.

leadfarmer

Necas would be a dream. But do we really need more centers?

jp

According to our poster Elvis, I believe, he’s exclusively played wing in his time in NA.

€√¥£€^$

The English translation is Evyleus….

The Material one shares “The King’s” name.

Thank you, thank you very much! 🤪

pts2pndr

Centres can generally play either wing while most wingers can not play centre. Roster versatility is nice to have especially when injuries strike.

leadfarmer

Yes but they tend to have higher value and command a larger salary

Jordan

Signing Bouchard to an extension remains my #1 priority for this summer.

Picking up a solid goalie for cheap (I like Comrie) to platoon with Skinner is priority #2.

Keeping at a reasonable price or getting real value for the Oilers RFAs is priority #3.

Finding capspace to sign/trade for Kane is priority #4.

I am curious to see what the priorities for the Oilers Management group turn out to be.

LMHF#1

Which of those goalies is good enough to win a Stanley Cup?

Reja

Bobrovsky.

pts2pndr

And he has won how many Stanley Cups? Asking for a friend!

Reja

Which Goalie can we realistically obtain that is good enough to steal games? I liked Smith a few years ago but he’s done like dinner, his severance package of 2.5 million is in the mail. Who do you like? I also like Campbell but at what cost?

LMHF#1

I meant in a Skinner-Comrie duo.

Not exactly my ideal outcome.

godot10

I doubt Bouchard will want to sign an extension this summer. It is important not to try forcing the issue.

jp

I also don’t see why he’d sign this summer (at least not for anything under $5M).

But why is it important not to try forcing the issue?

OriginalPouzar

Taking the “Klefbom-contract” would be taking away some upside but a guaranteed $25MM or so for a 22 year old is nothing to sneeze at – and he’d had a TON of additional earning power when the contract is up.

I don’t think it happens – heck, I’m not even sure its on Holland’s to do list, even at the back

YYCOil

Should we read anything into Kane attending the Brick Hockey Tournament in Edmonton?

Material Elvis

Not really. He’s already proved his scoring ability at the NHL level.

Side

Your comment reminds me of this

https://youtu.be/c7BVtGnlxT8

JimmyV1965

That was truly funny

OriginalPouzar

I thought it was pretty neat that he was still in town (or came to town for it).

Reja

Edmonton seems like a excellent landing spot for him professionally and more importantly personally.

pts2pndr

It shows a commitment to the city and may only be a thank you for his fan support. It does in my mind also show a touch of class! Good on him!

Randle McMurphy

AND there’s the first sighting

Reja

Of course they walked back the trade rumours of J.P because none of the offers are in the ballpark for returns. J.P, Kassian Barrie. Foegele and Yamamoto are on my tradewatch. It’s going to be a important 2 weeks for this franchise. Holland needs to win or parlay a couple of these trades into a Stanley Cup roster.

Side

Apologies for posting a non-hockey related item, but it seems like a slow day and I have a feeling some people here would appreciate this as much as I did:

https://gizmodo.com/baby-woolly-mammoth-mummy-yukon-1849137599

Pretty cool to see the communities working together to preserve this piece of history.

Primetime

LT,

I really enjoyed your thoughts on RFAs atThe Athletic.

Agree that Necas would be the dream scenario. But a lower light I had been thinking about was Nicolas Roy from Vegas. Big Right handed centre, 15 goals last year and improving every year.

Could he be an idea 3C? Let Macloed continue to grow at 3LW or 4C? Not sure if it would be a trade or an offer sheet to a cap strapped Vegas team

hunter1909

Trade/package JP for a Gibson type goalie and everyone goes home happy.

defmn

Not me. I don’t want them to trade Puljujarvi. I want them to run three scoring lines and put him out there with Holloway or McLeod and Nuge.

Nuge in the mentoring role for young scoring wingers is the role that makes him most valuable on this team imo.

Last edited 2 years ago by defmn
hunter1909

I go on the expectation that he still wants out ot Dodge.

Otherwise, he’s a great young player for the Oilers.

winchester

I thought DNB had a fair and insightful assessment of the Jessie P situation in his latest article.

Ken Holland say “He’s not giving him away”

Holland affirms Jessie has not asked for a trade.

The sticking point is around assessment of player, skills and position on the team. Both sides were disappointed in how the season ended.

Jessie wants a top six position. That’s why Holland states both he and Jessie’s camp are re-evaluating performance for the season. I think that means Jessie sees himself as top 6 or hes packing up. Oilers are not as confident he fills that role. Even suggesting he start on third line. Then of course we have no idea about money yet.

This may turn out reasonable, but these are also the type of negotiations that get a player traded sooner or later.

Diablo

And it’s the newly signed coach Woody who cut his minutes and put him on the third line, whereas the outgoing coach had him stapled to McDavid’s wing. Not saying that Woody doesn’t value the player, but I suspect he wants Jesse on the third line driving unicorns with Nuge.

jp

Even with that, Puljujarvi was in Woodcroft’s top 6 more often than not.

Under Tippett, Puljujarvi played 66% of his 5v5 time (9:47/game) with McDavid.

Regular season under Woodcroft he still played 63% of his 5v5 TOI with McDavid (9:13 per game). And even in the playoffs he played just shy of 40% of his TOI with McDavid (though only 3:32/game).

Diablo

Really makes you wonder … what exactly is the problem.

jp

Ha!

Well we have speculation in every possible direction. Likely some truth in more than one.

I don’t expect we’ll ever know for sure, and we’ll be arguing about it for a decade.

Primetime

Seeing his name in your draft selections reminded me of this tweet I saw yesterday.

https://twitter.com/ARHockeyStats/status/1542909428957077505?s=20&t=DOmQWbI_psBTaDgBXeV3rQ

On what planet is Arthur Kaliyev considered the 5th best defensive winger in the LEAGUE?!
I am a fan of JP and believe in his potential, and I also believe in analytics but if the numbers being used leads to a list with JP at #10 and Kaliyev at #5…my skeptical side acts up.
Admit I haven’t watched super close, but defensive work was a clear deficiency of Kaliyev in his draft year. Could he have improved? Sure…#5 overall? Did anyone see evidence of that in the LA series?

Primetime

Fair enough. But I already stated that list was made based on certain numbers. My question was “do you think he is in the top 5 defensive wingers of the league?”. Just posing the thought that using either eye test/analytics to 100% certainty doesn’t seem to make sense, Something is wrong with that list, in my opinion only.

Benign Bone

Note that Marchment is #1 on that list and all of he, Kaliyev, and Puljujarvi played sheltered minutes to varying degrees. While they include “role difficulty” as part of the defensive calculation, I’d be inclined to think their model doesn’t weigh it enough to get a full picture of ‘best defensive players’.

Last edited 2 years ago by Benign Bone
Marc

This is the kind of ‘analysis’ that gives advanced stats a bad name. Four of those players – Marchment, Kaliyev, Tkachuk and Puljujarvi – don’t kill penalties at all. It is simply impossible to conclude that a player is one of top defensive forwards in the league when he’s not one of the dozen or so players on his own team that the coach turns to kill off a penalty – the highest leverage defensive situation a team faces. If your analysis of the underlying numbers leads you to that conclusion then your analysis is fundamentally flawed.

The other six players on that list do kill penalties and most are among the team leaders for forwards in PK TOI. The underlyng numbers match up with their deployment so there is a decent argument that they’re among the best defensive forwards in the league.

These guys have not only failed to separate the signal from the noise, they’ve presented the signal and noise as the same thing. It’s a manifest failure of analysis.

Marc

The issue to me isn’t that there’s a difference between what the PK numbers say vs what the 5v5 numbers say (if that was the case, I would agree with you that the 5v5 number is probably more accurate due to the the small sample size of the PK number) it’s that 4 of those players aren’t used on the PK at all. Marchment, Kaliyev and Puljujarvi all have around 2 minutes PK TOI total last season and Tkachuk has around 5 minutes. They weren’t used on the PK even when the usual PK forwards were in the penalty box or hurt.

What seems more likely to you – that four different NHL coaches had defensive aces on their benches and somehow couldn’t find any PK time for them, or that the 5v5 numbers that purport to show these players as defensive aces are misleading due to some combination of how that player is deployed, who their linemates are, who they’re deployed against etc?

It’s the same issue I had with the people who claimed (prior to last season anyway) based on 5v5 stats that Drai was a huge defensive liability. He was a mainstay on the PK and the first choice sole F on the 5v3 PK. At no level of hockey do coaches deploy a defensive liability that way. You can tell when a coach thinks a player (like Kassian for example) is a defensive liability. They give them soft matchups, lots of OZ or OTF starts and keep them off the ice against better players if they possibly can. They do not use them on the PK, let alone give them a feature role. The 5v5 stats that said Drai was a huge defensive liability were so at odds with what was happening on the ice that I felt confident in saying that the stats, or more precisely, the conclusion being drawn from the stats couldn’t be correct.

Last edited 2 years ago by Marc
Harpers Hair

Which players teams use on the PK depends on the choices available.
Most coaches will go with experienced PKers rather than throw young players into the mix…they already have enough on their plates.

Harpers Hair

An example of this would be the Canucks.

Neither Pettersson or Hughes killed penalties in their first couple of seasons but did last season.

pts2pndr

Hughes is too small to be used in a defensive situation unless your major concern is your D screening your goalie!

defmn

McLeod & Yamomoto both played on the PK last season.

Harpers Hair

Arthur Kaliyev turned 21 last week.

defmn

Not sure what that has to do with my response.

pts2pndr

Happy belated birthday!

Randle McMurphy

Great observation. Well written. Post more often please.

OriginalPouzar

One does not need to be on the PK to be a great defensive player, in my opinion. They are totally different skill-sets and one can be a great PK without being a good defensive player (see: Josh Archibald) and one can definitely be a good defensive player without getting PK time.

Randle McMurphy

Is the list of “great” defensive players that don’t PK a very long list?

pts2pndr

What you say would hold more weight if you could also say coaches play defensively poor players on the PK but that doesn’t make them defensively poor. A defensively aware player will adjust and be good on the PK. Kassian as an example will never be good on the PK because he does not have the requisite defensive awareness! Hockey IQ and anticipation of what the opposition will do or is attempting is key.

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

Very much like the new up/down vote format. This way certain posters can see that it’s not all hate all the time. Thank you, Ryan/LT.

TheTikk

Next can we see upvotes and downvotes relative to the other strongest posters, per 60 posts?

Benign Bone

Just so long as we all remember that +/- is a flawed stat 😉

AMD

Possible late round goalie picks

Niklas Kokko
Tyler Muszelik
Thomas Milic
Nick Malik

Last edited 2 years ago by AMD
AMD

Possible D-men pick at #29

Chesley,
Pickering
Bischel
Rinzel

AMD

Possible F pick #29

Ostlund
Kulich
Snuggerud
Ohgren
Miroshnichenko
McGroarty
Howard
Beck
Schaefer
Gaucher
Perevalov
Lutz
Trikozov

€√¥£€^$

Luneau, Warren, Lamoureux and Hutson will be in the range on some teams’ D-men lists, as well.

Last edited 2 years ago by €√¥£€^$
Tarkus

It would be hilarious if the Oilers (or, more likely, a different team that has multiple early picks) ended up with both Lamoureux and Hutson.

Talk about a Mutt-&-Jeff D pairing…

Benign Bone

+1 for Rinzel

Tarkus

I am fully on board with trading down in this year’s draft, especially since it’s not a particularly strong one (relatively speaking).

If your first pick is in the back half of the first round, the play would be to trade down for extra picks in the later 1st/2nd/3rd, IMO.

This is why I’m still banging the drum for trading #29 (not Draisaitl!) for picks #33 and #62. Gives the Oilers another draft bullet. Gives the Habs another 1st-round selection they can show off to their home crowd. Win-win.

AMD

Probably trade down if their picks for #29 are gone.

jp

A recap of Holland trading down with 1st round picks:

2021
#20 (Wallstedt)
for
#22 (Bourgault)
#90 (Munzenberger)

2013
#18 (Mirco Mueller D 185GP 5-23-28)
for
#20 (Anthony Mantha L/RW 353GP 108-117-225)
#58 (Tyler Bertuzzi LW 276GP 84-104-188)

2011
#24 (Matt Puempel LW 87GP 11-5-16)
for
#35 (Tomas Jurco LW 221GP 22-31-53)
#48 (Xavier Ouellet D 187GP 5-23-28)

2009
#29 (Carter Ashton RW 54GP 0-3-3)
for
#32 (Landon Ferrero C/W 77GP 7-5-12)
#75 (Andrej Nestrasil F 128GP 17-31-48)

2006
#29 (Chris Summers D 70GP 2-7-9)
#152 (Jordan Bendfeld D 0 NHL GP)
for
#41 (Cory Emmerton C 139GP 12-9-21)
#47 (Shawn Matthias C/W 551GP 90-84-174)

Mayan Oil

That’s some pretty strong results. Good research amigo.

OriginalPouzar

Strong results trading down later in the draft two years ago where he traded the pick that many wanted him to draft Saovie with for a 4th and a 5th and still got Savoie and Tulio.

Randle McMurphy

I’m all for trading up a few spots if the right player is there.

Last edited 2 years ago by Randle McMurphy
Harpers Hair

The deadline for club-elected salary arbitration is 1 p.m. MDT today.

Yamamoto?

jp

Would I lie to you?

Before reading, I figured todays title was about the conflicting reports we’re getting on various team things from the media.

defmn

Nobody here will like this but . . .

https://sanjosehockeynow.com/san-jose-sharks-jesse-puljujarvi-edmonton-oilers-trade/

According to Spector’s sources, Puljujarvi might cost just a second or third-round pick. That’s a far cry from going fourth-overall in 2016, and that relatively-low valuation created some online controversy.

However, San Jose Hockey Now reached out to two NHL scouts, who agreed with that valuation for Puljujarvi.

Last edited 2 years ago by defmn
jp

Yeah, not what you want to hear. There sure are a lot of moving parts this summer, as you said yesterday.

DNB is saying the team won’t trade him for that kind of return, so we can hope for better (or even a return for the player, as DNB left the door open for).

Interesting times, if nothing else.

defmn

Best time of the year other than the playoffs. The team hasn’t lost a single game yet & in spite of all the rumours management hasn’t done anything stupid yet.

Redbird62

Right. In Holland’s own words, quoted at the end of the section in DNB’s article: “I’m not going to give him away”. Holland has been down this path before with Jesse when he first arrived and GM’s he talked to did not make him an offer that he viewed better than his alternative to wait Jesse out and eventually bring him back into the fold.

While the arbitration process is not perfect by any stretch, it seems unlikely that at the same time Jesse could have earned a $3.5 million to $4 million contract, that at most he could only fetch a 2nd round pick.

Should be worth noting though that Boeser got a really big contract out of Vancouver. Jesse, in 2021/22, outperformed by a lot or equaled Boeser at 5 on 5 in every measure in both absolute (totals) and relative terms (totals/60). On the PP, Jesse was pretty much equal with Boeser in relative terms, but played less than 1/3 the time.

Harpers Hair

In some ways, those scouts opinions could be describing Nail Yakupov.

He was traded to STL for a conditional 3rd round pick and Zach Pochiro a former 4th round pick who most recently played in the ECHL>

https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=145582

YYCOil

Some unnamed competitor’s scout says Oilers should expect a 2nd or 3rd draft pick in a weak draft year for Jesse? I am shocked …. this is indeed confirmation that a SN writer must have had rock solid sources to stir up noise on a quiet news day.

defmn

You can legitimately question Spector’s hockey sense all you like but there is zero chance that he makes up quotes to run a narrative.

Zero chance.

Mayan Oil

I love your lists comparing who you picked vs who the Oilers picked. Some great discussion to be had, but I would like to be able to see at a glance where the people you picked ended up getting drafted and by whom. Would add more perspective to the thing, I would imagine.

What do you think?

Last edited 2 years ago by Mayan Oil
Diablo

The draft is the ultimate “what if” … it’s fascinating to read old scouting reports on players, then years later reflect on how things played out.

Even at the the top of the draft, there’s no sure thing. Puljujarvi was seen as a sure fire number 3, but the Oilers reportedly had their eye on Sergachev … they should’ve just stuck to their guns and drafted their guy and paid heed to the giant red flag of Kekalainen passing on the Finn prospect that was there for his taking.

For me, the 2015 draft was the big missed opportunity … yes we got McDavid, but if we had simply kept the 16th and 33rd overall picks, they would’ve been so much further ahead now. Yes fixing the D was a priority at the time, but if they had simply stuck with McKenzie’s list and drafted the next highest rated d-man, they would’ve come away with Carlo at 16 and Kylington at 33.

Redbird62

Why do people continue to assume Kekalainen, by choosing PLD, believed that Jesse would not be a good high first round pick. All it conveys is that for 3rd overall for the Blue Jackets, he preferred PLD. Unless Kekalainen has gone on record somewhere where he said that Jesse was too highly ranked by all the other scouts/teams and that he would have drafted several other first rounders ahead of Jesse, for all anyone knows, he could have had Jesse ranked number 4.

winchester

I continue to believe that teams that interviewed Jessie seen a big kid with a big smile, but true communication was limited.

Kekalainen had a long interview with Jessie and no issues communicating. The purpose of conducting interviews and background on a player s to assess mental readiness, attitude, expectations, things not easily measured on ice.

I do believe that interview carried some weight, and it was around NHL readiness and managing expectations.

Having said this I can agree with you that we don’t know for certain, and Columbus chose the center or perhaps a player that might arrive sooner.

Diablo

In retrospect, Kekalainen would go on to trade PLD for Laine, so it worked out pretty well for him, as he got the more talented Finn (though Laine still looks lost in his own zone).

That said Kekalainen has not shown much interest in acquiring Jesse post-draft either.

defmn

The ability to read the minds of decision makers is a prerequisite for posting on the internet. 😉

jp

All it conveys is that for 3rd overall for the Blue Jackets, he preferred PLD.

That’s true, but I also think it’s fair to take Kekalainen passing on him as some sort of red flag, even if not a huge one.

Puljujarvi was the very strong consensus #3 pick. It was a surprise to basically everyone in the hockey world when he wasn’t picked at that spot.

That the guy who passed on him was fellow Fin Kekalainen, who can be presumed to have have better connections and knowledge of the player than almost anyone else, well it was a major surprise at the very least. And that remains true even if Kekalainen did have Puljujarvi ranked #4 or #5.

Munny 2.0

Maybe he just wanted a Center?

jp

Possibly.

Columbus employed 22 year old Boone Jenner (82 30-19-49), 29 year old Brandon Dubinsky (75 17-31-48) and 21 year old Alex Wennberg (69 8-32-40) the year leading up to the draft, so C doesn’t look like it was an area of particular need. But hard to know for sure.

jp

I replied, but it is ‘awaiting approval’ for some unknown reason.

OriginalPouzar

Take a look at the players drafted around Yamamoto – both before and after – hell of a pick.

OriginalPouzar

Holy Hell – climbing mount Bisoke in Rwanda – may be the toughest one I’ve done so far. What a day!

Go Oilers

meanashell11

Have you done Kilimanjaro?

jonrmcleod

I’ll never forget how the Kilimanjaro rises like Olympus above the Serengeti.

meanashell11

Agreed. Very beautiful. I climbed it for my 40th birthday.

Bruce McCurdy

You are one of a kind, Ira. Happy climbing!

Side

The site now shows upvotes AND downvotes seperately?

Quickly, someone upvote me 6 times and downvote me 9 times!

Ryan

Godot requested the info in yesterday’s thread. We can switch it back once he has taken a look.

Diablo

I like how we can now see both the number of upvotes and down votes now.

Bruce McCurdy

Yes, it allows us to calculate actual ratios!

Tarkus

Advanced stats FTW!

Last edited 2 years ago by Tarkus
jonrmcleod

I hope you don’t change it back.

Side

Personally, I prefer the seperate upvote and downvote counter for what it’s worth.

godot10

I have taken a look. Thanks.

W

Well I haven’t

hunter1909

Looking forward to at least a 115 point season followed by a Cup Finals appearance.

John Chambers

The Leafs had a 115 point season.

They never looked so good in the handshake line.

Munny 2.0

who won the playoff march, Hunts?

hunter1909

You might have to wait.

I’m busy getting tarred and feathered with Leafs comparisons.

Last edited 2 years ago by hunter1909