The Edmonton Oilers signed right-winger Kailer Yamamoto to a two-year extension yesterday, the $3.1 million AAV a reflection of his first 20-goal season and increased role in several areas of the roster last season. There’s an ongoing discussion about Yamamoto and Jesse Puljujarvi, and which of the two will have a more substantial career.
Based on the gap between the two contracts signed this summer ($100,000), it seems the organization can’t decide either. Cap constraints suggest we won’t have to wait long (someone has to go) but a world in which both men return for 2022-23 in Edmonton is a world worth living in.
THE ATHLETIC!
- Lowetide: Oilers’ expectations of Jack Campbell in his first Edmonton season
- Lowetide: Who will the Oilers trade for cap purposes?
- Lowetide: 5 Edmonton Oilers training camp surprises
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers star Connor McDavid and his Art Ross dominance
- Lowetide: Can Oilers’ Darnell Nurse live up to new contract?
- DNB: With Oilers roster intact, stars readying for next step
- Lowetide: 10 unsigned free agents who could help the Oilers in 2022-23
- Lowetide: 5 times Oilers management mishandled Jesse Puljujarvi
- Lowetide: What are reasonable expectations for the Oilers in 2022-23?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Evan Bouchard is on the edge of stardom
- Lowetide: How many goals will Oilers winger Evander Kane score next season?
- Lowetide: Four Oilers defence prospects applying for one job. Who wins?
- DNB: Oilers depth chart: Where did they improve and where can they make more moves?
- DNB: Oilers’ Kane, Campbell signings are calculated risks in push for Stanley Cup
- Lowetide: For Oilers forward Dylan Holloway, the future may come early
- DNB: Oilers’ Brad Holland on AGM role, analytics, working with his dad: Q&A
- Lowetide: Oilers top-20 prospects, summer 2022
- DNB: First-round pick Reid Schaefer can bring ‘big-boy hockey’ to his hometown team
- DNB: What we’re hearing on Edmonton Oilers’ Puljujarvi, more
- DNB: What if Edmonton Oilers trade Jesse Puljujarvi? The case for and against
POSSIBLE 2022-23 ROSTER
The team has $35,000 unspent but it’s another LTIR season (Mike Smith, Oscar Klefbom, Slater Koekkoek) and Derek Ryan is in the minors. Not ideal, but the point of this exercise is to see if we can keep Jesse Puljujarvi, Kailer Yamamoto, Warren Foegele and Tyson Barrie on the roster. It can be done, and oh my those top three lines look good from here. Seth Griffith and Brad Malone replace Ryan and Devin Shore.
TRADING FOEGELE
I liked Warren Foegele’s season and believe he’s a good player, but the cap dictates someone has to leave. Foegele dealt for a pick and the two LTIR’s (Smith, Klefbom) gets the team here. Which do you prefer?
KAILER YAMAMOTO AND JESSE PULJUJARVI
This is a good young player, averaging 20-25-45 per 82 games over the last three seasons. That’s good production, and $3.1 million is a solid contract for the next two years. Edmonton will have a chance to buy two more RFA seasons and one or two UFA years when his new contract expires. I don’t know if he’s better than Jesse Puljujarvi (he is 20-22-42 per 82 games over the last two years) but the organization has a chance to see both in 2022-23 and then evaluate the future with or without the Finn next summer. I would keep them both. You?
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
A full boat today, 10-2 on TSN 1260. Oilers general manager Ken Holland will join us to talk about the Kailer Yamamoto signing and the summer’s business at 11. At 1, Kevin Laramee from Soccer Today and TVA Sports helps preview the EPL season. We’ll also talk NFL (there’s a game tonight) and your comments welcome on the Oilers next move. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
The greatest thing about Holland’s summer is Kane essentially giving him a partial do-over on the Nurse contract by signing for less than market value.
Like Draisaitl outplaying the Chiarelli contract, you’ve got to love it when the players bail out the GM.
Wonder if there is precedent to tell us what will happen to a player hitting 100 points for the first time at age 29. Is this an outlier? It seems like a late peak. Granted he has been >1 P/G last 4 seasons, but when would his production be expected to decline?
I would admittedly be nervous signing Leon to a contract like that at 29, so I can’t imagine anyone should look at this as a contract that he should reasonably be expected to deliver on.
I’m also happy to hear he can’t play defence, that will bode well for the team
Leon is in the category of player that you won’t need to worry about a severe decline. He’s second in overall league scoring the past 5 years combined and likely in that range for the next 3 before his deal is up. I’d have zero hesitancy giving him a big contract.
Huberdeau on the other hand does not have a lengthy history of this kind of production. I’m not sure it’s unprecedented for a player to start a run of good production at his age, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
Gordie Howe had his only 100 point season in his age 40 season.
In his prime, they only played 70 games. He’d have gotten 100 possibly as many as 5 times if they played 82 games, twice for sure.
And several older players had career years for total points in the first couple of seasons after the league doubled in size and the original 6 players could score a bundle against the 6 new teams that got slim pickings in their expansion draft.
Yep for sure that’s a big part of it, but I still put it up there as a pretty amazing feat.
The point I was making is that Leon has a much longer track record of success on both sides of the puck, and I would still recognize the potential danger in having 10-15% of the cap tied up with one player until they are 38 because nothing in life is certain. Maybe I am missing something, but Huberdeau has not shown the consistency of a top 10 league player for long enough to justify a top 10 league contract until he’s 38.
Yeah I agree with your point on Huberdeau. But with Leon I think his production has been consistent enough that I think the risk of the contract being poor is low. I would also gladly pay it if it means Connor also sticking around and the potential for a few cups still exists.
He is 4th in the league in total points since 2018 behind Connor, Leon and Patrick Kane. This past season was an outlier though in points per game. From 2018-2021, he is 13th in points per game, which is still pretty good.
But when you sign a 29 year old to an 8 year deal, the AAV in the first few years should appear to be a discount to compensate for an overpay in the back half. He is not at a discount at $10.5 million even if it was a 1 or 2 year deal. The evidence of how bad this contract is likely to be will probably appear in no more than 2-3 seasons.
Do you think he can maintain his production on the flames? He’ll still end up with a heckuva centre there and likely a good team overall. I’d peg his production this year in the 75-80 point range. Will be fascinating to watch that team this year either way.
His most common linemates this past season were Bennett and Duclair, and he scored 2.97 P/60 at 5v5. Damn shame the Flames traded Bennett away 🙂
But I do think we should expect Huberdeau to keep producing 90 something points for the next few years (he’s been healthy, and has averaged 99 points/82 games over the past 4 seasons).
Huberdeau was also getting 70% offensive zone starts last season. He was sheltered a bit as well by the Barkov line.
Will be interesting to see what happens when his line is the main focal point of the other squad.
I suspect he will still produce but likely won’t be top 5 in scoring again.
Total fluke I saw this post.
But yeah he likely won’t finish top 5 in scoring, you’re right that he was getting some help. I think all 3 of the players (Gaudreau and Tkachuck too) very likely had career years last year. The Calgary two weren’t even point per game players the previous 2 year, and the line kind of caught lighting in a bottle last season.
That Huberdeau contract is going to be tough down the road, but IMO Huberdeau is just as good a player today as Gaudreau or Tkachuck. Problem for the Flames is they lost one of them for nothing at all.
Henrik Sedin did it at 29, his brother Daniel did at 30. Daniel probably would have at 29 as well if he hadn’t been injured. Henrik got to 94 when he was 30. After that outstanding 2 season run, they both dropped off significantly back down to a point a game for a few seasons.
Frank Seravalli
@frank_seravalli
·
27m
#Flames Huberdeau will earn $61.5 mil in signing bonus.
Full NMC all 8 yrs, last 2 yrs 12-team modified NTC.
1. $7M SB, $3.5M Sal
2. $7M SB, $3.5M Sal
3. $7M SB, $3.5M Sal
4. $9.5M SB, $1M Sal
5. $9.5M SB, $1M Sal
6. $7M SB, $3.5M Sal
7. $9.5M SB, $1M Sal
8. $5M SB, $5.5M Sal
So about as buyout-proof as you can get, basically.
Looks more like a ‘season ticket sales for the corporate sector are down’ after weeks of ‘should we renew our tickets’ bad news than the kind of contract a GM like Treliving would willingly sign.
It is a business after all.
It is and Huberdeau’s agent knew Treliving was in a bad spot. God knows we have seen enough of that in Edmonton.
I think the Kassian signing was the last one where Holland had to gulp and swallow.
Good for Calgary salvaging the Tkachuk situation as best they could. While Huberdeau is aging, he’s still a star in this league. I still think Calgary wins this trade going away. (I honestly don’t think Tkachuk is that good, especially watching him
disappear in the Edmonton series)
Not what I would call a team friendly contract.
Pretty much unmovable for 6 years.
7 and 8 doable after the $9.5M signing bonus paid.
Again, that is the happy face interpretation with $10.5 due in year 8.
A pittance with a $150 million cap especially if some is retained.
Oh shit, it’s like the Lucic deal x 2.
Hubs inked an extension in Calgary.
$84×8. That’ll age well when he’s 35-37
He gets Johnny’s money.
Lucic coming off the books next season pays for the entire raise.
By the time the contract becomes an issue the cap should be well over $100 million.
Easy to deal with depending on contract structure and movement clauses.
That’s the happy face way of looking at it but as you say let’s wait for the details.
I seriously doubt you were keeping a straight face as you were typing that comment.
No.
Big grin.
No Barkov in Calgary to get the heavies I wouldn’t plan the parade just yet.
Lindholm does just fine against the heavies.
Selke nominee.
Who’s his wingers Coleman and Dube. Dube might be in some heat in the near future.
Calgary still has cap space.
Do elaborate.
Got the spin cycle set to overdrive tonight.
Then Hyman’s contract will be a breeze by the time the cap is up to 100 mil, but I recall you not using the benefit of foresight last year…
Also, one bad contract coming off doesn’t pay for another. If we are going to play that game for 2023-24, that is a very tight window to put it together. In 2024-25 Hanifin and Lindholm will no longer be on team friendly deals, 21 mil will be tied up with Huberdeau, Mangiapane and Coleman, and practically the entire team will have to be re-signed
Both will be declining assets.
Of course Huberdeau is a much better player.
Aaand is getting paid twice as much, on a longer contract, that kicks in when he’s older than Hyman’s.
Anyway, wasn’t there talk of a $150M cap not long ago?
Hyman had 15 more points in the playoffs then the magical disappearing Johnny Hubs. A trend that will most likely continue on.
That’s interesting. Goes to the leverage story in the Athletic today. Calgary got bent over.
Great contract for the player. Not so much for the team. Big winner in this is Edmonton.
Oooof… I wonder if BT set up the contract for an easy buy-out. Reminds me of Lecavalier’s last contract. Tampa continues to pay him until 2027.
$10.5MM is in the range that I thought he would get. Of course, the main issue with the deal is term.
Huburdeau was a $10.5MM player this past season and its reasonably likely he will be again in the next year or next couple of years but I’m not positive he’ll be a legit $10.5MM player year over year going forward and, of course, will regress through the contract and likely materially after 3-4 years.
This was a signing the flames had to make, 100%. Its a good signing but, of course, given he will be 30 in the first year of an 8 year contract…..
Will be interesting to see how long it takes for Sutter to drop him to the 4th line.
Scott Wheeler from the Athletic just announced he’s written a book called “one The ClocK”
Someone call the cops.
It’s by the same publisher so I’m thinking it’s gonna be a whole series of books on the draft by team. That’s interesting
Ideally, we’d find a way to trade Barrie & replace him with a cheaper, physical 3RD/PK.
I don’t know who’s available, but I’m sure there’s someone out there who can cover the 3rd pair workload for less than him.
Barrie is a good to sometimes great offensive defenseman on a team that needs his style of player.
He calms the back end down because he usually controls the puck and the game that goes with it.
Keep Barrie OK.
Keeping Barrie another year helps control Bouch next contract. It would be easier to trade Barrie with one year left on his contract.
Holland is “live” to the incoming spike in Bouch’s cap – I’m not sure that means he’ll try and open negotiations this off-season but I would hope so.
At soon as Lou L. said at the very end of the season that he’s looking for more offensive players for his back-end, I started posting about a Barrie for Mayfield swap (with depth picks/prospects added one way as needed). This has not become a mainstream suggestion.
I don’t think it happens but you never know.
Mayfield is a value contract at under $2MM but he’s one year to UFA vs. 2 years of a good contract for Barrie. The Isles do have the space for it (unless they’ve got Kadri coming I guess).
Barrie is the more “valuable player”. Mayfield has the smaller hit but he’s a one-year until raise contract. I’m really not sure where the add would be.
Curious thought. Does a player count against the ap for all days up with the club, or only when on the 23 man list for a game? Is there any advantage to keeping only the 20 man minimum on the roster when we don’t have back to back game, and bringing up only when needed due to injury otherwise? How much could be saved? Would it be a material amount on a tight budget over the course of a full season?
There is definitely a benefit to day to day cap structuring in the normal course. In the normal course, the daily pro rata (based on the number of days in a season) amount a team is below the cap is accrued and can be banked – essentially increasing the total aggregate season cap.
Teams have been using the above strategy.
With that said, when a team is “in LTIR” there is no accruing of cap space.
When a team places a player on LTIR their Adjusted Cap Accrual Threshold is set (which will basically be their cap hit (less the LTIR player) at the time the first LTIR placement allowing them to go over the normal cap is made). It will be close but under the $82.5MM.
Any time a team is over that amount, they will not accrue any cap to bank.
The Oilers will essentially be over that amount all season long unless they move the Smith and Klef contracts (which isn’t happening it doesn’t seem).
Blah. Blah. Blah, blah, blah…
You’ve got something to say to me?
Perhaps you had/have a more concise answer to the question posted.
Good Grief.
OP, thanks for being our resident capologist.
Just had a funny thought, too crazy to be anything but stupid. Too bad you can’t buy out retained salary… would make things very interesting league wide…
I don’t recall if the option is even discussed pro or con in the CBA, but I’m mortally certain the League would quash any attempt to do so…
Addenda: I type quicker than I read, Buying out retained is precluded by CBA stated requirement that a players has to pass through waivers before buyout AND also has to have been on team’s reserve list at the most recent trade deadline. So…. yeah. It was a very silly thought. Not possible in this current CBA… too much time on my hands today.
But what a ride!
Good point.
Derek Laxdal goes back to coaching in the CHL. Oshawa Generals
An irishy kid from the same place in small town Ontario as my Irish family once played for the Oshawa Generals.
Munny, your Finnish recommendation signed in Switzerland, cross him off your board. I thought you were very convincing.
I would be a huge fan of not, or barely, being in LTIR at start of season to actually have some real juice for deadline.
Barrie and foegle out is 7.25 million.
Smith and klef 6.4 million in LTIR
Now obviously replacements are needed but I honestly would rather hobble together 3RD and 3 LW cheaply and be able to make a real move at deadline.
You would have to trade Klefbom and Smith for that to happen. Better to just suck it up for one more year with those two on LTIR.
Yeah. You’d need to trade Barrie, Foegele and Puljujarvi, replace them and fill out the roster with league minimum types, AND spend the year with a 22 man roster in order to not be in LTIR (if you didn’t trade Klefbom and Smith).
How not to build a team like Calgary GM does…
1st rounders 2014 Bennett traded
2015 traded
2016 Mathew T traded
2017 Valamaki
2018 traded
2019-21 yet to play NHL
2022 traded
Treliving has commitment issues. Hah
Fingers crossed Lucic retires and frees up another $750k for us.
He’s only due $1m in real dollars, and has earned $70M already
That also frees up $5.25 for a division rival. I’m not sure that is a win for the Oilers.
Fair point but they still have over $9M space if you count LTIR…and other than Kadri (who they could afford today) who’s really going to make them stronger after a Lucic retirement?
Isn’t Monahan expected to be back at some point this coming season?
Last I heard/read, he was expected in camp.
Who cares. Calgary isn’t going to overachieve like they did last season.
Apparently kgo cares. He brought it up. 😉
I love how the Flames overachieving means a 2nd round beatdown by their hated rivals.
Who knows how much that Stanley Cup kicking led to them losing Gudreau and MouthGuard?
Double checked with Cap Friendly. If bought out during the second arb related window, Lucic buyout is also not tenable. Calgary would take a hit this year for 4,666,667 due to signing bonus and a hit of 291,667 next year for a total of 4,958,334 vs their current cap hit of 5,250,000. Edmonton would reduce their current cap hit from 750,000 to 666,667 this year for a current savings of only 83,333 and have a hit next year of 41,667. Net 47,667 savings. Even that, juice not worth the squeeze. Don’t see him retiring and even if possible, buyout does us and Calgary very little also.
He’s here until he’s not here… end of season.
$750K of cap is nice.
Lucic anchoring the flames cap is also nice…..
I want him too much on the Flames.
Lucic will be a distraction in the room lol
I prefer option 2 and yes to both RW. It can’t get, or be any simpler than that!
Nice to see Yamamoto and Puljujarvi signed. McLeod is the only (non-UFA) player of note left to get signed, and I don’t think there’s a lot of variance in his signing number. It’s good to have some cost certainty, but we also know something else has to give before the season starts.
While unbridled enthusiasm abounds, I remain of the opinion that realistically more needs to give than just:
1) trade Foegele
2) trade Puljujarvi
As LT shows, it’s technically possible to proceed that way, but would requires a 22 man roster and some less than ideal bottom of roster solutions.
The other (IMO more likely) options are:
1) trade both of Foegele and Puljujarvi
2) trade Barrie and replace with a 3RD making $2M or less
3) trade Barrie and one of Foegele or Puljujarvi
There’s issues with any of those paths forward, but IMO that extra cap space could be put to very good use for the coming season. There’s quite a few UFAs out there that still look like they could be good value for money.
Using the Barrie and Foegele traded scenario (vs. just Foegele), the Oilers would have about $7.5M to add a 3RD and 4 forwards (in hopes of upgrading on Shore, Benson, Malone, etc). Holloway could be one of the 4 if he forces his way onto the team.
I’m thinking something like this:
Kane-McDavid-Yamamoto
Hyman-Draisaitl-Kessel ($1.3M)
Stastny ($1.5M)-Nuge-Puljujarvi
Janmark-McLeod ($1.0M)-AstonReese ($1.1M)
Larsson ($1.2M)-Ryan
(with Holloway, Shore, Benson, Malone, McKeeg, Bourgault in Bakersfield)
Nurse-Ceci
Kulak-Bouchard
Broberg-Subban ($2.0M)
DeHaan ($1.2M)
(with Koekkoek, Samorukov, Niemalainen, Desharnais in Bakersfield)
Campbell
Skinner
That’s a lot of depth (almost too much), but it could be possible. I prefer something like this to trying to run the roster short a player and with a couple of borderline players on it.
If you are going all in you might want to consider sending Ryan down to Bakersfield as well and freeing up all but $125,000 of his cap hit.
A lot of juggling in that scenario though. Not to mention that there are about 20 other GM’s looking at their guys with the same idea. 😉
Yes, you could consider sending Ryan down, though I tend to think he’s worth the $1.125M you’d save by assigning him.
And you’re right things wouldn’t be as simple as clearing cap and having all those guys flock to sign at those cap hits.
The other thing is you probably wouldn’t get the like of Larsson and Aston-Reese signing on value deals when they might not even be in the lineup every night (that’s kind of what I meant by maybe too much depth).
Generally though, it shows the kind of thing that could be possible if they were willing to move Barrie.
Barrie is at his top value now after last year and his excellent playoff performance and is a luxury that in my opinion the team cannot afford. His cap hit alone would allow a judicious movement at the trade deadline and or an in season acquisition of a value contract. Foegele is low value but should very well hold greater value by the trade deadline with even a slight uptick in puck luck this year.
As if teams cannot afford to have puck moving defencemen.
Yeah right just get rid of a player that Taylor Hall and the RNH Oil Change heroes would have killed to have
My biggest concern with moving Barrie is what it does to Bouchard’s next contract. I like the player, but agree his even strength minutes could be replaced for cheaper.
I don’t understand though why you think Barrie is at peak value. He led the league in D scoring a year ago, then had a tough year by his standards (playing much of it with rotating rookie partners). His value is way down from a year ago, even with the solid playoff.
He was excellent under Woodcroft (both before and after Kulak arrived), I think he could very well have a better year than the past one.
Nice to see them both back
but you want them to be fused into a single star player because
as things stand one is a bit too small and the other one plays a lot too small.
Barrie is more important than Foegele for sure. I would assign Barrie and JP equal value. So for me, it really depends on who would be replacing Barrie and/or who would be replacing JP for less money. I would hazard a guess that the winger would be easier to replace for less money. Also, what kind of sweetener would it take to move Foegele in your opinion?
With $1.5M difference in their contracts, the team would save more by replacing Barrie with a $2M player than replacing Puljujarvi with a league min player. I think a $2M D gets closer to replacing Barrie (PP aside) than a league min forward does to replacing Puljujarvi.
I’d think the cost to move Foegele would be pretty modest. I’d guess a later round pick, and would be surprised if it’s more than a 3rd.
I could be possible also to trade him for a $2M-$3M D, then Barrie for picks. That would achieve basically the same thing.
Of note, Don’s piece at The Athletic has the Oilers as the 11th most improved team this off-season.
All the other teams that were in the 3rd round were right near the bottom and listed as teams that got worse.
For full honesty, as I’ve posted before, I never put much stock in these models that are based on WAR and stuff. I discount them when they cite Nurse as a league worst contract so I will essentially do the same in this case as well (although I have posted many times that Colorado got worse and made very risky bets with their cap in the next 3-6 years and that “just keeping a good team together” in this cap world closes the gap).
I dunno.
I have it on good authority that Andre Burakovsky is being adequately replaced by a man 4 inches 20bls smallest whose career best point total in less than half Burakovsky’s total last year.
I have it on good authority that Artturi Lehkonen scored at a 53 point pace after joining the Avalanche.
While Burakovski had a career year with 60 points he was a healthy scratch in the playoffs at times and was replaced in the lineup by…wait for it…Artturi Lehkonen who is an elite checking forward.
BTW…the Avalanche save $1 million in cap space in the transaction.
Beware small sample size! But most of all thank for the now famous HH jinx!😂
I remember that time that Foghorn Leghorn told me Philip Danault would be a bust in LA and then he went out and scored 27 goals.
Fancy that.
A broken clock is right twice a day, that blows your track record out of the water.
Foghorn and HH are first cousins.
ha ha ha
So a poster is not allowed to converse with me so, instead, he calls me derogatory names in a post while, at the same time, providing absolute misinformation, in fact, pretty much lies, about what I posted……
Classy and mature stuff!
What should we set Lehkonen’s points over/under after HH has cursed him? 35.5 points? Less?
Phew, for a moment I thought you were going to say that Burakovski was replaced by Lou Lamiorello which would have resulted in $1 million in cap space savings for the New Jersey Devils.
Progress.
Wonderful. Fantastic.
Whatever happened to the Flames that last season you spent working your knarly fingers to the bone trolling about/with?
They are paying Lehkonen $400k less than they paid Burakovsky last year.
I would be interested to see how/if Dom’s model accounts for a full year of Jay Woodcroft and a full year of Evander Kane.
Why?
11th is good enough lol
whatever that means
next stop: the Finals
Brainstorming…
Foegele to Toronto for Holl
Barrie to Montreal for Byron (50% retained).plus a 4th round pick
Godot I like it:)
How do you think Kassian will do this season?
Toronto is tight to the cap. Actually, they are over the cap by $1.5M. They would be adding an additional $750K for the Holl-Foegele swap. That one is pretty unlikely.
Since Kulak and Barrie played well lasts season, why not keep them together this season as the 3/4 pair. Then have Broberg and Bouchard as the 5/6?
It will be that by the playoffs, with Broberg and Bouchard the 2nd pair.
But to start the season, one shouldn’t saddle Bouchard with a rookie.
Kulak Bouchard
Broberg Barrie
to start.
Sometime in the new year…
Broberg Bouchard
Kulak Barrie.
Won’t be surprised if its
Nurse/Bouchard
Broberg/Ceci
Kulak/Barrie..
I know the coaches were playing with a top pair and 2 bottom pairings last season with ice time and deployment, but that was with taking the club over and no training camp. I’m not sold they start that way come October, maybe they revert back during the crunch but not to begin with imo.
I also think that they may split Nurse and Ceci in order to balance the pairs more (and not run the two youngest out together).
I know they like that super tough minutes pairing but it’s not feasible to run them even at 42%-45% TOI vs. Elites, let alone 50% like last season, for a full 82 game grind and 2-month playoff run.
They will surely use them in situations most games, and probably for stretches of games, but I don’t think it will be full time for the season
I think running Nurse-Ceci against the elites for 40-50% of their toi is feasible IF the majority of those minutes are paired with the CMD or Drai lines.
This will also sacrifice offense, put a Puck moving defender on the ice with the most talented forwards. More goals.
St. Louis didn’t win the Cup until Pieterangelo didn’t have to be on the shutdown pair, because of Parayko. Pieterangelo became a greater factor not having the toughest minutes.
It is foolish to put Bouchard on the shutdown pair. One wants him on the 2nd pair dominating and winning the game there.
Could look at it that way..
Could also look at it this way.
82 game season, Nurse is going to be spending a ton of time on the ice with either 97 or 29.
The opposing team should be on the defense during this time trying to hold off one of Edmonton’s top lines..
Would you not want to have a defender with Bouchard’s 5×5 puck iq?
I know I would.
Ceci is a great defender, but he’s not beautiful with the puck.
Imo you get more out of the group breaking up the best 2 defenders the team has and spreading the puck movers around.
Not putting Bouchard with Nurse 5×5 means you have Bouchard, Barrie, and Broberg all on the ice the majority of the time 97 and 29 most likely will not be.
I want a defender capable at any point sending headlong beautiful passes on the ice whenever 97 or 29 are on the ice. The best defense for this team is constantly sending 97 or 29 into attack mode.
Having more balanced pairs that can all play is really valuable
All eggs in one basket relies on no injuries- one shut down pair, one that gets by, and one you don’t trust much and play less
While they have rookies and youth, throughout the season give them a vet partner, let them play a lot, even out TOI, all to be at the best possible come playoff time
Nov 16 2022 LA Kings at Edmonton Oilers
Several pissants return to Edmonton who purposely ran Edmonton players with intent to injure. In the game, in the scrums, for 7 games with Oilers unable to properly answer due to playoffs.
But no playoffs for this game. I’d like to see the malice returned and message sent. At least a couple beatings each for Anderson, Durzi and Moore. If I can get a hatrick like that Im definitely throwing my hat on the ice.
Please turn the boys loose Woodcroft.
Maybe Nurse can headbutt another!
I recall that Kaliyev kid trying to hurt a couple Oilers, including that open-ice interference hot on McDavid. I’d like to see someone line him up too.
Dang, you’re right. Hes going on the list then too. Shitbird.
We know Draisaitl has this game circled.
Messier set the template for Oiler payback
They should put little elephant logos on their jerseys
We won’t forget, and it’s coming down the road, you don’t know when…
Anybody else having problems with the site this morning. I haven’t seen it this slow in a long time.
Same
Yep
Yup
Yup, it can be done as your exercise proves but does it “make sense” to (a) have a fourth line with two players that are not NHL players on a contending team and (b) run the risk of having to ice a 17 skater, or even 16 skater, lineup because there is zero cap space to even call up a replacement?
The above in the name of keeping Warren Foegele (as opposed to inserting Holloway for him and at least having one extra forward available?
I can’t imagine Holland will go this route.
I think they should trade Foegele for picks, and trade Barrie to MTL for David Savard. MTL D was one of the lowest scoring last year and they lost Petry. They also had one of the worst PP in the NHL. Savard is a better fit for 3rd pair and is $1m cheaper. Then sign one, two, or all three of Sprong, Svechnikov, and Sam Steel. They would be very good 3rd and 4th liners, and could push Malone, Ryan, and Shore out of the lineup.
I generally like the approach, but I’m not sure Savard is the right target for the sake of saving $1M. He’s got 3 years to go on his deal as well, and he turns 32 in October.
Hard pass on Savard. He’s signed for a year longer and has very slow boots
Sadly, I suspect that, given Foegle’s salary, we will probably have to be the team including picks to get rid of Foegle. Maybe something like Vegas had to do with Paciorety.
I look at how tight the cap is going to be, going forward. I am circling back on the value of having your AHL team playing and practicing in the same building. For home games …teams could carry 20 players and have the AHL players available to be called up and play in the NHL with only an hours notice. In a non LTIP environment this could give a GM more flexibility for cap/player juggling.
I remain very disappointed (and surprised) that there doesn’t seem to be interest in bringing the team Edmonton.
Calgary and Vancouver (and Winnipeg and Toronto and, well, MANY teams these days) have a big advantage here.
I’m not sure the reason, I don’t imagine it is ownership and financial.
The Condors are a very successful org, moreso than the teams in Stockton, Utica, etc. have been – that may be it.
Visit Bakersfield sometime. You’ll understand why the Condors are such a hot ticket.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mB7oUI32E1Y
Holland on Kessel – “anyone that’s on the market, I’m aware of and talked to their agent. We’ll see. I’m not going to say yes. I’m not going to say no. It’ll depend on if we do anything to our lineup between now and camp”
Holland on Bourgault – “He’ll need to force himself in to the lineup. He’ll need to push someone out of the say.” To paraphrase the rest of his respond: AHL development is a good thing. Come to camp and play well and leave an impression on the coaching staff and management and then do the same in the American League – When the opportunity comes, take advantage of those opportunities. There are special players that can step right in but, for most players, time in the AHL or an extra year in college, etc. is generally good for their development including emotional, etc.
Holland confirms that he would like to add a depth player, someone that might be under-valued given the cap situation around the league.
Says that’s a hope, not something they will necessarily be able to do.
Hi LT – looking forward to listening to Holland on with you and Dave right away here.
One thing – you keep mentioning the possibility of running with a 21 player roster in order to keep the current roster and be cap compliant.
Yes, from a high level, this would work and the team would run one one extra player, presumably a d-man.
With that said, practically, I don’t think this works at all. I mean, if they don’t even have cap room for a 22 player roster with one extra forward and one extra d-man, that simply won’t work going in to the season.
I mean, if a forward, say Nuge, has a minor injury and is out for 1 game, 3 games or even 6-7 games and is on IR, they won’t even have the cap room to call up a replacement. I guess they could send down the extra d-man and call up the forward but, realistically, this isn’t practical.
Holland has said many times that he would like a good $1.5MM of room for in-season roster structuring.
That may not be possible but they need to have at least a little bit of room to have injury replacements – we know that, at any given time, the team can effectively have a 24, 25, 26 player roster with guys on regular IR (that do not provide cap relief).
Too funny – you just asked Ken if this was do-able, as I was typing.
Sounds like he may be OK running with a 22 person roster but he states this is not ideal. He didn’t say no to a 21 man roster but, given even 22 is less than ideal, I don’t see it.
It would really lead to playing games without a full 18 skater lineup.
I think there is a very strong chance we see a 21 man roster as the likely option going into training camp because they aren’t going to want to trade a player like Barrie, Foegele or JP just to need someone back due to injury. There is almost always a player that unexpectedly comes to training camp injured or gets injured in camp and that will change the whole game for them.
I guess it could be but they run the real risk of having to play games without a full lineup of 18 skaters.
If they are running with just one extra skater due to cap reasons that means they don’t have the cap space to call anyone up (without sending the one extra down) for a short term injury, etc.
If they have two guys that can’t play (which will happen MANY times through the season), boom, short lineup (unless one of the two goes on LTIR), right?
That is where the versatility of extra centre’s is nice.
I could see them holding on to everyone into training camp since there are often injuries and trading someone close to game 1 if another team has a need. I can’t see a short roster being a long term solution since cap can’t be accrued when in LTIR.
Victoria Oil sends greetings to all Lowetidians from the beautiful old city of Dubrovnik, Croatia aka Kings Landing to you GoT fans.
With respect to Yamamoto, I am happy with 3.1 x 2. Interesting that at the beginning of last season, a number of people were projecting Kailer at around 2.25 mln and Jesse at close to double that at 4+, yet they both came in at similar cap hits.
Greetings and salutations!
Give my regards to The Imp.
Love me Croatia – drove down the coast from Zagreb to Split to Dubrovnik a number of years ago. Did it in the elbow season – I couldn’t imagine the crowds in August – shudder!
Pronger, Peca, Roloson > E Kane, Kulak, Campbell
E Kane, Kulak, Campbell, P Kane > Pronger, Peca, Roloson
#CupCalibreConstituents
LOL . They could trade Foegele , Yamamoto & Puljujarvi for picks and have plenty of cap space with LTIR to sign , MacLeod , Kessel , Rodrigues & Larsson .
Kane-McDavid-Hyman
Nuge-Leon-Kessel
Holloway-MacLeod- Rodrigues
Janmark-Larsson-Ryan
If I’m a G.M in todays tight cap NHL I wait until the dust settles in August and scoop up 2-3 bargains that can easily replace the 3M gang with 1.2 to 2 million dollar contracts. How hard would it be to replace Foegele 12, J.P 14 and Yamo’s 20 Goals that cost 9 Million with three Perry, Kessel like players for under 6 million. Sign these players on a 1 year deal let them vie for a Cup and inflate their numbers by playing with Leon and Connor.
That’s what I’m talking about.
A bit short sighted in my view.
You are on very dangerous ground when dealing with people and team chemistry with what you propose! It may sound good in theory and in practice may even be effective on a one time basis! You are however setting up a system that will fail and with catastrophic results. Not many people that I know of that would want to play for a manager that operates in this manner. Penny wise pound foolish!
But here’s the thing: I don’t think Puljujarvi contributes to team chemistry. I’m not saying it’s his fault. But I suspect the chemistry issue is why the trade requests keep on coming up. I still think he is gone by opening night 2022.
There hasn’t been a trade request from Puljujarvi for years though – not since he came back over.
Open to a trade and requesting a trade are not the same, right?
That is a possibility for sure as there are things as fans we just don’t know. Holland is a very patient man. It will be interesting to see how the JP saga plays out!
Why would any GM trade for Yamamoto, Puljujarvi or Foegele if there were free agents out there willing to sign for much less who could do the same job?
I don’t think Reja’s proposal is realistic.
I’m not sure there are players out there that are as good as Jesse or Kailer (now, let alone upside) available for cheap in free agency. No I don’t think guys like Evan R. are as good (nor have the upside) and he’ll probably get closer to $2MM plus in any event.
Holland should be able to obtain 2 2nd and 2 3rd. Hollands been pissing away draft picks for 20 years like a drunken sailor. If his kid is taking over you know he’s going to load up on the futures to set him up before he’s done.
No, I don’t know anything of the kind. You are on an island by yourself on this one as far as I know.
One last “potential” question for ken Holland.
(I believe Holland drafted Mattias Janmark)
Q: You signed Mattias Janmark. tell us what you know about him and what role you foresee him playing?
I like the first roster option 👌🏻
“KY and JP… I would keep them both. You?”
Yes. Agreed.
I would transplant Kailers head onto JP’s body, play him at 1RW and LTIR the other guy.
Good idea! Then we can maybe sign Mr. Kessel.
For sure JP’s head in Yamamoto’s body would be a major handicap .
That’s an extra large head to be packing around on Yamo’s regular sized neck.
Allen, if Foegle is traded for picks, can you see KH signing McLeod AND Rodriguez or Kessel? Janmark is a center or LW, not sure he play RW. I liked your proposed roster from the other day where you found a way to trade Foegle and sign Kessel.
market this summer might want a pick coming in with Fogs. 😕
Janmark is a LW, no center option.
In an interview shortly after the signing he said he’s never played center at the NHL level – they transitioned him to wing as soon as he came over.
Truth is you may be trading Foegele and picks for one lower pick coming back. The only player that you can move for a pick or a prospect and pick is Barrie
But Barrie brings a lot to the table. He’s scored 50 points per 82 games over his career!
Barrie isn’t much different from Torey Krug. Krug signed for about $45M, Barrie for $13.5M. He has repeatedly taken discounts to play for us.
And Barrie has chemistry with the team.
And Barrie reduces the size of Bouchard’s next contract by at least $1M per year.
During the DoD our defense was horrendous. It’s easy to criticize defensemen until they’re traded to Montreal and finish top-10 in Norris voting.
I keep Barrie over Puljujarvi.
Barrie has been a minus player for his entire NHL career except for the last two years where he has been a plus 3 and plus 4. He is a good offensively gifted player whose value is equal to his cap hit however due current cap situation and the fact his offence can be picked up by Bouchard, he is the logical piece to be moved.
This is why +/- is a flawed stat.
Barrie plays PP and all the EN situations where his teams are trying to tie a game up. Because of that he gets dinged with a bunch of minuses.
If you look at his 5v5 goal differential he’s been a plus player 7 of his 9 years as a regular.
The only 2 times he was a minus player at 5v5 were 16-17 when Colorado finished last overall, and his 1 season in Toronto where he went -2.
The truth hurts……
You will note I have never said Barrie doesn’t have value. The idea that somehow having Barrie will keep the cost of Bouchard contract lower is a two edged sword. Assuming Bouchard continues to progress and the team still needs a defensive first right D the rest of the league is aware that Barrie needs to be moved which will actually lower what the team can get for him. If his production goes down as Bouchard gets more of his choice minutes his value in trade goes down. If his plus minus regresses to the mean his value will also take a hit. I believe Barrie could be an asset this year for the Oilers but his peak value for trade is now.
My post was solely a play on the poster’s username….. not a substantive reply to the post.
Sorry OP
“Based on the gap between the two contracts signed this summer ($100,000), it seems the organization can’t decide either.”
I agree the organization might like another look at both players.
But clearly they are leaning in one direction.
1yr x $3m
vs.
2yr x $3.1m
Is a BIG tell.
Another Randle Bold Prediction.
Kailer Yamamoto scores 50+ points this season.
It’s not really a big tell. If they gave JP two years he would be UFA at the end. They still control KY at the end of his contract.
Disagree. They couldn’t give JP two years, it would compromise the next deal (free agency) too much.
A 2 year deal for Jesse would have taken him to UFA so they couldn’t go there. He will be at 7 seasons of accrued service by then. Even though he only played 27 games in 16/17, he was on the 23 man roster for 42, so that season counted.
Probably not a coincidence that Jesse got sent down right after the cutoff to get the accrued service. That is likely a tell that Chiarelli made some commitment to his agent get to that marker. If Jesse hadn’t given that back by spending a full season back in Europe, he’d be a UFA at the end of this coming season.
I’ve been saying this for years and years and years.
100% (OK, fine, 99.9%) his agent required an “unofficial agreement” with Chiarelli to keep Jesse on the roster for 40 games in his 18-year old season to vest a year towards UFA status (and also reduce his waiver exemption form 5 to 3 years).
It was literally the day after the 40th game – no coincidence – its almost not possible.
Damn…Some of my favorite posters.
Randle stands corrected.
And happily so!
It’s a lot of money for one tiny player that can be squashed at any moment and another that is a complete enigma .
Hmmph. All hat, no cattle….
Also of Note: Next year they get paid the exact same $. The cap hit on Yamo is only higher because of the raise in Year 2, and has more to do with UFA status at LT said. So, considering next year in a bubble, the big tell is that the Oilers value them exactly the same.
Part of the reason for the one-year contract on JP is that it makes it an RFA expiry.
Going 2 years on Jesse would be a MUCH bigger deal than with Yamo.
I don’t think the extra year on Yamo necessarily means they favor him over Jesse given the contract expiry ramifications.
Man Kenny what an off season!
Between the JP Hit Pieces, the Kane Panic and the Boat Anchors that hadn’t yet been left at sea of Keith, Smith and Kassian much of ETown and the commentariat was sure sweating a few months back.
Now the biggest question is do we ship out Foegele or put Ryan and Kook on LTIR.
Ahhh the window is now wide open and given that forward corpse I expect goals, goals and a few more goals.
Tempered expectations are in place for Bouch, Broberg and Campbell but am prepared to be surprised to the upside.
This is going to be so much fun!
If the first roster LT put up can fly I think it goes in a tear this season. It is Gords willing a contender. Next season a lot of the current cap issues and trade difficulties solve themselves or become attenuated. To be replaced by new cap/roster questions but hey circle of life.
Very excited for the next few seasons. Sort of opposite of how I felt coming out of last summer.
either roster actually. not sure why ai zeroed in on the Fogs-compliant version. Guess ai think it won’t hurt nuthin for Holloway to start scoring AHL goals ahead of his final call up.
+ Fogs difficult to move imo
What an offseason is right. The media doesn’t seem to want to give KH the major credit he deserves for the moves and acquisitions he made.
I mean…E. Kane for 700k less than Magniapane?! That alone is worth an A+ rating.
With the offseason KH is having on a team like Toronto…the cup would’ve been awarded already. He has absolutely killed it….so far.
The Vegas odds makers have noticed his work. Before the draft, the Oilers were at around 2200 (22/1) to win the cup on most books, somewhere around 10th. So far, based on all GM’s work to date, the odds for the Oilers now range from 1300 at Caesar’s and 1600 at the other big places. They are tied for the 5th lowest odds with Carolina at Caesar’s and in 6th at the other shops (tied with the Knights in some cases).
However you look at odds, the betting market has liked what Ken has done, just like HH predicted back in June. The off-season isn’t done yet, so new info can change this, but so far it is very positive.
That is a stacked top nine. ✅✅✅
I take the second roster but having to deal Foegele isn’t great either. Curious why Slater is on LTIR though as he can be buried without any cap on the NHL roster. Unless he’s injured but I guess it doesn’t matter either way in terms of building the roster.
Putting him on LTIR allows you an extra $925k in your cap pool.
Yeah but because his contract comes in below the threshold to bury it’s effectively no different in terms of available dollars for the roster.
Koekkoek on LTIR vs. Koekkoek assigned to the AHL after clearing waivers has no effect on actual cap space available – they are essentially the same.
If the Oilers were not already going to be in LTIR hell then there would be real differences but, for the cap space on any given day this coming season, there is no difference.
Already being in LTIR, adding Koekkoek will allow the full $925K in extra overage. Assigning Koekkoek to the AHL takes the full $925K off the cap. Effectively the same.
Another possible question for Ken Holland: “Can you walk us through the process / rational behind the hiring of Brad Holland”
Silly rabbit Trix are for kids!
Asking a father a question like that about his son is akin to asking to get slapped like a . . .
Also, does anybody know the specifc injury that was registered with the League in order for Mike Smith to qualify for LTIR?
or was being 40 enough of a reason for them? HaHa
I believe he had a groin/leg and or knee injury that might require surgery or just a lot of time to heal up. At the age of 40 the body doesn’t heal as fast. I’m wondering if he retires at the end of the season even without playing.
Listening to Friedman earlier in the summer and he mentioned more than once that Oiler fans would be surprised if they knew exactly how “banged up” he was last year and what he battled through in the playoffs.
From accounts, his body really is “LTIR ready”.
Please ask Ken Holland about the Elephant in the room.
How does he intend to get cap compliant?
The answer may surprise us.
Does he foresee squeezing in under the cap with the current roster intact? Is that plan “A” ?
I take the second line up with Foegele gone.
Only if we know JP is a happy camper.
Good morning to you all. Let me wake you with a little tune that goes
“Time is just a rubber band; Time is at our command.”
With the UFA’s taken care of we can now “see the morning from the other side”
Well folks with the Kailer Yamamoto signing, the course is set for our 3-4 year window of opportunity to win Lord Stanley’s Cup.
Here’s how I read the map.
1) Biggest consideration is Hyman, Nuge, and Kane all seeing diminishing returns after the 2024-25 season.
2) Philip Broberg has to get full time NHL hours this season. He is one of the keys to being cap compliant for the next two yrs.
3) Tyson Barrie plays the PP for one more season (keeps Bouchard’s next contract manageable) and then is traded in the summer of 2023 and his cap space is used to pay Evan Bouchard on a bridge deal.
4) Dylan Holloway plays full time NHL hours this season. Another mandatory requirement in order to stay cap compliant. And like Broberg his “rookie” year development HAS TO occur this season
5) Ken Holland plays it so close to the cap this year that decisions are made week to week as to what needs to happen specifically regarding Warren Foegele and JP
6) If JP catches fire by the trade deadline, he stays. If not, he is traded to the Chicago Blackhawks in a 3 way deal that see’s Patrick Kane traded to a 3rd party at 50% retained and then to Edmonton with another 50% retained.
7) The cap rises by $1m again in 2023 and approx $1.5m comes off the books ( Sekera Lucic) To pay Stuart Skinner his (hopefully well earned) raise and to afford JP’s qualifying offer if he remains with the team. AND $6.3 million of LTIR goes away ( does not affect cap but does affect roster management)
8) Patrick Kane is a pure rental and is only pursued if JP underperforms
9) The rest is details.
It’s going to be CRAZY! (but that’s how it goes)
#AllAboardWho’sCominAboard
I like the thinking here. A lot of things need to fall exactly into place for something like this to work but I remain cautiously optimistic.
I really hope Holland sticks to his words in terms of the team finding solutions internally with the kids. There will definitely be hiccups with Holloway and Broberg and the team will have to accept those realities.
No plans for Bourgault, Samorukov or Schafer during that 3 – 4 year window? 😉
Would like to say yes. But it’s like a long-term weather forecast. The further out you go the less reliable the prediction.
I hope they are a big part of the 7th cup 🙂
It would be fantastic if Bourgault adapted fast to the pro game and could be seen as a “deadline addition” – its not out of the realm of possibility that he can be called up in-season and play top 6 RW minutes.
Of course, he very well may (a) only be ready for 3RW minutes or (b) of course, not be ready at all this season.
Given LTIR and no accrued cap space to bank or ability to pro-rate cap, deadline cap space will be very little again and we know there will be an in-season D acquisition – I don’t think there will be enough cap for a material forward acquisition, unless big cap goes out (which doesn’t make sense).
Is McLeod signed?
Not yet.
This will get done in due course but likely won’t be finalized/announced until closer to September.
Holland really seems to enjoy sticking to “the process” of how things are done in the off-season which includes, draft, UFAs, dealing with arb eligible RFAs, taking a few weeks off in August and assessing depth signings, dealing with RFAs coming off ELCs (except for studs that are going to get real raises – see Bouch next season).
He seems to like going through the steps in the order that “business is done”.