The Fugitive

by Lowetide

The Oilers finally got their man, one decade after he appeared to be on his way to this northern city. After an intense search of every gas station, residence, warehouse, farmhouse, henhouse, outhouse and doghouse, Ryan Murray signed with the team and is likely to be on the opening night roster. What does this mean?

THE ATHLETIC!

RYAN MURRAY

I wrote an article for Nail Yakupov, Ryan Murray and Griffin Reinhart ahead of 2012’s first round, because it wasn’t certain how things were going to turn out. The night before the draft it was Murray, by noon the next day it was chaotic and when the Oilers took the Russian winger everyone knew something went down. Murray would have been an interesting pick. Corey Pronman’s prose has always been stellar, and his description of Murray was thorough and fair:

  • Is advanced beyond his years with well above-average hockey sense and the rare kind of game-processing ability and vision that makes him a significant two-way threat even without elite offensive tools. Murray is a great presence on the back-end with the puck because he rarely makes a mistake and even though he doesn’t limit himself to the basic plays, he not will force the big passes if they are not there. He doesn’t get rushed by opposing forechecks and is one of the best outlet passers in this draft. Murray makes smart reads defensively, takes his assignments well, and will not shy from using his body to separate his check from the puck. He’s an above-average to plus skater although he isn’t the kind of player to threaten regularly with a speed game on the rush, rather he relies on a great first step and all-around mobility to keep the play in front of him and close on the puck. Murray’s puck skills are solid, and while he’s not a dangler, he can certainly hold his own in open ice. On the power play, he is a pass-first guy who makes the smart plays and the difficult passes with consistency. He also has a pretty hard shot and can wire it through legs when he needs to. While Murray does not project as an elite prospect, he has a low risk tag on his projection. He will be the kind of player to log over 20 minutes a game while playing tough minutes against the opposition’s best players while still managing to put up impressive possession numbers.

Injuries had a major impact on Ryan Murray, so much of the scouting report no longer applies. There are things Murray can bring, and the defensive setup for opening night just got more interesting. My question is: Could we see a trade involving one of the defensemen on the roster above?

INVITES

Slowly the Oilers are adding names to the invite list on the team website. As of this morning, the following prospects (non-roster) are on the list:

  • Cole Dubinsky. Undersized Regina Pats winger had a breakout campaign (20-29-49 in 61 GP) last season.
  • Noah Dorey. He’s a LD, He’s 6.03, 192. Two-way type, he’s 19. Defense first. Kelowna Rockets.
  • Jeremy Hanzel. He is 19, LD, 6.01, 188. Great passer, skating and defense improved according to PPP.
  • Luca Hauf. LHC from German juniors. Two-way F who has a solid defensive rep already. Oil Kings chose him in the import draft.
  • Ty Nash. He is 19, and a RW who shoots left. Son of Tyson Nash, has some skill. 17-21-38 in 60GP with Lethbridge Hurricanes one year ago.

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maudite

Murray is super curious team structure wise add, in my brain, but an add at right price. It’s not likely he’d possibly slide through waivers with that salary and namebrand value right?

Regardless: long live the leftorium!

Last edited 2 years ago by maudite
jp

I looked yesterday and Murray has played almost half his career with different LH partners. I *think* he’s another K. Russell type who’s comfortable playing either side.

AsiaOil

As others have noted….scouring the league you only find one cheaper RD worth trading Barrie for….Scott Mayfield. NYI gets the better offensive player (but more expensive) for 2 years while EDM gets the grittier and cheaper guy who is UFA next summer. Might have to take a player like RW Panik (and bury him) to make the NYI cap work.

godot10

I wanna see Broberg Barrie as a pair, before we trade Barrie.

kelvjn

Looking back, that Pronmsn description does NOT sound flattering for a 1st overall pick:”Not projevt as elite prospect”…”the kind of player to log 20 min a game while playing tough minutes against opposition’s best players while still managing to put up impressive procession numbers(meaning not so impressive actual points)”?

So basically what a 2019~20 Ethan Bear (playing alongside Nurse) was, except taller and left shot?

leadfarmer

If there was something you could do to fix this issue. Just one thing
nope can’t think of it right now

jojonoshow

I agree LT. Philosophically, that is the correct answer.

pragmatically though, the comment section was much more pleasant for everyone when you timed HH out for a few days there…

pts2pndr

I came back to this post as I’m a Luddite. Thank you for keeping the comments section open! I love this site and willing to be the sacrificial lamb. As I have gotten older I promised myself to no longer go along to get along. There is always a price! Thank you for keeping the comments section open! Sometimes when in charge there are no easy answers. I wish you all the best and my humble apologies for angst that I caused. My best to you! You good sir are a class act! Stay true to you and know there is no animosity towards you from me in this matter!

Reja

Lol

OriginalPouzar

Talking about Miller seems prudent given the contract was signed yestereday – why it needs to be brought back to Nurse is mind-boggling – every topic needs to be brought back to something negative about the Oilers – its every night and every thread. Good Grief!

leadfarmer

https://twitter.com/hayyyshayyy/status/1565835777677967361?s=21&t=d9K0P5ssm_F4U2Ciobrp3w

so what’s wrong with Doms JT Miller projection?
oh yeah he’s missing a year at the end.
that’s gonna be like a 6-8 year buyout!!
but thankfully for them it won’t effect the cap
nope not one bit

leadfarmer

Just look at the Minnesota Wild who just had two big buyouts that didn’t effect them not one bit
well other than having to dump Fiala for futures

Harpers Hair

Contract: $9.3M x eight years
Surplus Value: -$35.1M
Positive Value Probability: 22.7 percent
Basically, anything said in the Seth Jones blurb can be happily applied here for Darnell Nurse as well. He too has a roughly one-in-five chance of living up to his $9 million-plus deal where the biggest issue is contract length for a 27-year-old. Nurse also eats minutes and scores, but is probably not a true number one defender. The talent is there to be more, but the price tag is still too high.

leadfarmer

While I don’t like Nurses contract he’s definitely not one of the 5 worst in the league. Like you keep saying salary cap is going up and he’s a defenseman.
there’s plenty worse contracts. These just stick out because they are long.
For example Jamie Benn is definitely a worse contract than Seguin. It’s just thankfully over for Dallas in 3 years

leadfarmer

But thankfully we didn’t blow 8 mil a year on ageing winger at a time people are just giving away top wingers

defmn

This is getting tiresome.

OriginalPouzar

Its unfuckingbelievalbe – every single night. A conversation can’t be had on something negative relating to another franchise without an attempt to divert the conversation to something equatably negative on the Oiler. Every fucking day. Every fucking thread.

Kurri17

Why do people get so mad over a comment on a blog? Seriously, HH posts aren’t a big deal; if you disagree, just gloss over. I disagree with so many comments on this blog and others, and I feel no urge to respond to every one. I care about real life outside the internet.

Last edited 2 years ago by Kurri17
Lewis Grant

People seem to be taking HH’s bait a lot more than they used to. I don’t quite understand why. It’s exactly what every troll on the internet wants. Just ignore him and move on.

OriginalPouzar

Its not one comment – its him diverting almost every single topic, every single day, to turn it in to something anti-Oilers – its constant.

There is no need for a discussion about JT Miller’s new contract, signed yesterday, and the signing bonus structure, new information, to come back around to Darnell Nurse and links to his contract being poor.

Sure, that type of tangent happens but this is one person intentionally doing it to almost every single topic.

Feel free to care about what you care about and have fun getting back to “real life” while you post here on “fake life” and passively aggressively criticize those that enjoy this “non real life” platform as “lesser than”.

Last edited 2 years ago by OriginalPouzar
OriginalPouzar

All that is fair and, of course, I repeat my opinions on subjects – subject get repeated all the time and opinions get repeated all that time – everyone that posts here daily does that. I’m no exception.

The major difference here is that those “repeated opinions” are on the topic or substantively related thereto – well, for the most part, I can’t say honestly that there are not exceptions.

With respect to the poster at hand, every topic is diverted away from its substance to move it to something negative towards the Oilers or anti-Oilers in general.

Sure, if the topic is Nurse and his contract, throw in Dom’s analysis as relevant, etc. When JT Miller’s contract structure is being discussed, in real time, what does Nurse’s contract have to do with it – there are many many threads about Nurse and his contract to discuss that.

All of a sudden, Miller’s contract, the relevant news at hand, isn’t being discussed, and its a bitch fight about Nurse, etc.

Sure, that type of tangent happens naturally from time to time but its, for all intents and purposes, every thread that gets diverted to an anti-Oiler thread, clearly intentionally.

Feel free to ban me if you think its necessary – I don’t discourse with the other poster any more (except I am guilty of the odd “3rd party post”). I’m not the person that call him a troll and various other names daily – there are a number that do that here, every day, personal attacks on him.

I just posted my thoughts on what’s been happening recently. I’m hardly the problem with HH these day. His bickering over the last 4 months has been 99% with others but I spoke up today.

defmn

All that is fair and, of course, I repeat my opinions on subjects – subject get repeated all the time and opinions get repeated all that time – everyone that posts here daily does that. I’m no exception.
====================

Oh, you are definitely exceptional OP.

defmn

Less than an hour later LT announces that he has had enough.

jp

Just looking at Ryan Murray’s partners through his career.

Looks like he played basically half of his TOI in Columbus on lefty-lefty pairings. Mostly with Markus Nutivaara, but also Jack Johnson and others.

It was similar last season in Colorado, with Jack Johnson being his 2nd most common partner followed by other lefties Girard and MacDermid (righty E. Johnson being 1st).

Seems like he may be versatile in terms of where he lines up as well. Can anyone confirm that Murray has often been the one playing right side?

jp

We know the Oilers need to shed salary in order to be able to run a 22-man roster.

With Murray added, and the Samorukov waiver risk, as OP has been saying it would be ideal to keep 8 D on the roster. That’s hard to do with only 22 skaters though.

So how hard is it to clear enough cap to allow for a 23-man roster?

The following 23-man roster, with currently available Oilers, is $2.1M over the cap:
Kane-McDavid-Yamamoto
Hyman-Draisaitl-Puljujarvi
Janmark-Nuge-Foegele
Holloway-McLeod-Ryan
McKeeg
/
Nurse-Ceci
Kulak-Bouchard
Broberg-Barrie
Murray-Samorukov
/
Campbell-Skinner

What are the options?
1) Trade Barrie and replace with someone making less than $2.4M.
2) A trade of Puljujarvi or Yamamoto alone (and replace with Benson, Shore, Malone, outside FA) would open up just enough for a 23-man roster.
3) A Foegele trade plus another smaller move. Trading Foegele (and replacing with Benson, Shore, Malone, outside FA) opens at max $2M, so isn’t quite enough. If combined with Ryan being traded/waived, or Benson replacing Holloway though, it would open up the required $2.1M.

I think that’s it in terms of realistic ways (aside from injuries) that Holland can get the team compliant and still have 23 players on the roster.

Harpers Hair

How much are you paying McLeod?

jp

$1M

defmn

This is where you need to get him some work doing advertising bits for one of the Oilers’ sponsors. 😉

jp

McLeod? Haha.

$1M is quite reasonable for him, no? A little extra from sponsors wouldn’t hurt though, and I do think that gap tooth grin would move product.

defmn

I think we all know at this point that whatever the number is it will be a bit of a disappointment for McLeod.

Just the way it has to be as low man on the RFA totem pole when money is tight.

jp

I think we all know at this point that whatever the number is it will be a bit of a disappointment for McLeod.

I guess.

I mean Yamamoto signed not quite a year ago for 1 x $1.175M. He had more than twice as many points as McLeod on his ELC, was a higher pick, played a lot more minutes, and higher in the lineup.

I feel like 1 x $1.0M is quite reasonable (though that doesn’t mean the player might not be disappointed with the number).

Harpers Hair

It would be an opportune time for a rival to throw a $2 million offer sheet at him.
The price in assets is extremely low.

pts2pndr

As a fan he’s not paying McLeod anything! 😂

OriginalPouzar

Thank you for that work.

OriginalPouzar

The Miller contract has no signing bonuses in years 4 or 7. In addition to those in the first 3 years, its got signing bonuses of $3MM and $2.5MM in years 5 and 6. Buy out able in year 7 and potentially years 5 and 6 (I haven’t done the math of what that would loook like – wouldn’t be great but not Lucic bad).

Harpers Hair

The JT Miller contract terms:

Somewhat front loaded with big signing bonuses in the first 3 years.

  • $8.5 SB $1.0 S
  • $5.0 SB $4.0 S
  • $5.0 SB $4.0 S
  • $0.0 SB $7.0 S
  • $3.0 SB $4.5 S
  • $2.5 SB $4.5 S
  • $0.0 SB $7.0 S

Full NMC first 4 seasons.
15 teams NTC for the final 3 seasons.

The last year of the deal seems to be designed to facilitate a buyout if necessary.

Harpers Hair

The 7th year obviously tacked on to keep the AAV down.
The cap will likely be north of $110 million by then so a buyout would not be a huge deal.

leadfarmer

Sure it won’t.

jp

There’s an easy formula for these eventual boat anchor contracts:

1) Signing bonus in the final years – contract is eminently trade able once the bonus is paid = good
2) No signing bonus in the final years – contract can be painlessly bought out = good

(obviously substitute “= good” for “= bad” if an Oilers contract is involved)

Side

If the Oilers need to buy out a potential contract we hear:

“Cap space is a team’s most valuable asset! Every penny counts!”

But if Vancouver needs to buy out a contract, we hear:

“It’s not a huge deal”

Harpers Hair

Would you believe the Oilers are still paying the buyout on Sekera and have another THREE years on the James Neal buyout?

Someone thought those were a good idea.

leadfarmer

But the OEL and JT Miller buyouts will clearly have no Ill effects on vancouvers future cap space

Harpers Hair

Would you believe the final 4 years of Darnell Nurse’s contract are almost all signing bonuses.

Buyout proof.

jp

Would you believe the final 4 years of Darnell Nurse’s contract are almost all signing bonuses.

Buyout proof.

You might have noticed that Nurse will be 2 years younger than Miller when their deals end.

Harpers Hair

That’s great because older D never get injured.

Side

Well, you did say OEL wouldn’t get injured to justify Vancouver getting him.

Side

Vancouver seems to think it’s a good idea, cause they may be on track to repeat their division rivals mistakes.

All of these savvy GMs you kept hyping up don’t seem to be as savvy as you think they are.

OriginalPouzar

23 Rathborne could still arrive early!

Harpers Hair

Rathbone was exceptional in the AHL last season when not injured or in Covid protocol.

OriginalPouzar

Vinny Deharnais had moe 5 on 5 points than Rathborne…..

Harpers Hair

Not sure why you think Horvat won’t be retained.
The Canucks have enough dead space coming off the cap next season to accommodate a raise for him.

While you have identified their D as a weakness, their forward group is much improved and you have to think at some point soon Rutherford will deal some of that bounty for defensive help.

Suggesting Podkholzin and Hoglander are their only potential difference makers also sells them short considering the potential of Kuzmenko and their recent first round pick who looks like an elite shooter.

Harpers Hair

While the extension of Miller certainly indicates the Canucks are in win now mode, I don’t think they seriously think they are a cup contender this coming season.

Myers is due a $5 million signing bonus next summer and then he has only $1 million of salary left…easy to move.

I would think they are more likely to move Garland or Pearson at the deadline.

If Horvat gets extended as expected, Rutherford will be able to turn his full attention to addressing the D next offseason.

OriginalPouzar

Haven’t I read over and over again, how the top managed teams in the league have no dead cap space?

Side

It’s “not a huge deal” afterall.

YYCOil

Last seasons Kris Russell played 30 ish games. Sammy is going to get some of those games and Murray will get some of those games.

defmn

Waivers for Samorukov could torpedo that.

I have to admit this year’s version of the team is more fun to contemplate as to how lines and pairs will play out than the many years of the recent past when I would count up how many legitimate NHL quality players would be arriving to camp & I had to stretch the definition to get to 11 or 12.

OriginalPouzar

Listening to Gazolla (Tom) from yesterday who was saying that Nuge is buddies with R. Murray (or at least he was back in 2012 as Nuge was clamouring for him, apparently).

OriginalPouzar

My question is: Could we see a trade involving one of the defensemen on the roster above?

Well, its not Nurse or Kulak, I think we know that.

Its not Broberg unless we are talking block-buster and I don’t see that and don’t see the GM trading his top 10 pick right as he’s about to play in the NHL.

Murray has no effect on a Barrie trade I would’t think – any right D out would require a right D in (Subban is still out there but I don’t see Barrie out).

We are thinking Samorukov and, ya, that makes sense but does he have any trade value? I mean, lots of us like the guy but we are talking about him likely sliding through waivers. Any acquiring team would need to keep him on their NHL roster or expose him (same if they acquired him via waivers). As a throw-in/add-in to a deal, I guess there is a bit of value but not much.

I think Samorukov has more value as a potential player for the Oilers than in a trade.

I think he needs to play some NHL games in order to gain any trade value.

I still hope this signals a 23 man roster with 8D but, damn, how?

teddyturnbuckle

Bang on with Samorukov’s value. Unfortunately he has been injured a lot and he needs to play games. Does he have value if he will be on waivers in 1 month? Even if he did make the Oilers this year I’m not sure being a healthy scratch most nights would help him develop into a reliable player. With Murray signed now I’d put the odds of Samorukov being put on waivers at 85%. With his injury history and poor NHL debut last year he will pass through waivers. Every NHL team has a couple of tweener D men that fans worry about getting claimed. I believe Taylor Chorney was the last Oilers D man to be claimed 11 years ago but I could be wrong. I don’t think an injury riddled Samorukov is going to buck this trend. If he gets sent down he can work on his game in Bakersfield and be ready when he gets his chance from an injury to another Oilers player.

OriginalPouzar

I agree that sitting in the press box game after game after game isn’t a good option but, of course, the 7D will end up playing many many games I would think – likely more than 40.

Injuries can, and will, happen.

Lewis Grant

I did the math, and last year, the 7th D-man on each team played an average of 36 games, and a median of 37 games. (And some of those 7Ds were actually Top 6 with injuries, which would raise the average/median of those who began the season as 7D.) So yeah, likely ~40 games or more.

OriginalPouzar

Thanks.

The flames probably skew that as well at their entire top 6 played 73 plus games….

jp

I don’t really think Murray signing signals a trade. Agree it has little to no bearing on a Barrie move.

If the signing is related to a subsequent trade, a P. Kane move is about the only way I could see Broberg being traded.

Samorunkov seems most likely, though you’re right his value wouldn’t be so high. FWIW, Bob’s guess at a PKane ask was 1st, Foegele/Puljujarvi, non-top prospects (I think he specified not one of the 1st rounders). Clearly Samorukov would be near the top of that group in value.

defmn

I think the chances of Samorukov sliding through waivers are about 50-50. There are re-building teams who would be tempted. What is more certain – maybe 80-20 – is that if he doesn’t make it to the NHL this year he goes home next year barring unknowable political events.

As a fan of his type of dman – I like a little grit on the back end – that would disappoint me.

I keep reading here how there are only 3 RD on the team making a Barrie trade unlikely. I also think it is unlikely but didn’t Kulak play RD in Montreal a fair amount? I don’t think we can ink a starting lineup on defence just yet – as our host here reminds us every few days.

I’m not convinced that Holland is finished nibbling around the edges and I would be surprised if he doesn’t have a cap clearing move in his back pocket for when he has finished and knows all of his options. RW still looks like it could use some work for example.

jp

There’s a lot of moving parts in this post 😉

I agree it’s likely Holland has a very good idea what moves are available to him to clear the remaining cap space. Agree also that he’s not likely done nibbling at the roster.

On Samorukov, I really don’t know how likely he is to be claimed if he makes it to waivers. I wouldn’t have thought the likelihood of him going back to Russia is quite that high though if he doesn’t make it this season, but you could be right.

In terms of Kulak playing RD, I had a more thorough look just now. He did play about 25% of his time in Montreal with a LD partner. I don’t know if all or most of that with him playing the off side though. His results with lefty partners were actually really good too – 58% GF in a bit over 1000 minutes, and good underlying numbers (this was with Jordie Benn and Alex Romanov for 300+ minute each, and Ben Chariot and Victor Mette for just under 200 min each).

So I guess Kulak playing RD could be a legitimate option, though I’m not sure if that affects Samorukov’s situation much at all. If Barrie is traded, even if Kulak could be his RD replacement, I still can’t really see Holland starting the year with Nurse/Broberg/Murray/Samorukov as his LD. Surely if Barrie is traded another legitimate NHL defenseman will be added, so Samorukov probably remains in the same spot.

I agree it would be disappointing if Samorukov were to exit the system in the next year without getting at least the 29 games Benson got this past season. I will say that I think Holland has a good track record from his days in Detroit of not losing guys that are worth keeping in situations like this. We will see.

OriginalPouzar

I think the chances of Samorukov sliding through waivers are about 50-50. There are re-building teams who would be tempted. What is more certain – maybe 80-20 – is that if he doesn’t make it to the NHL this year he goes home next year barring unknowable political events.

Samorukov left Russian and came to Canada at 16 years old, turning 17, to play Canadian Major Junior Hockey – presumably due to a life dream, goal, path to play in the NHL. He also spent this summer in Edmonton training at the team facilities, etc. and brough his wife over with him. He was saying they love Edmonton.

You could be right, he could head back, Maksimov eventually did after coming over as a teenager, but I’d be a bit surprised on the cusp of an NHL job.

I keep reading here how there are only 3 RD on the team making a Barrie trade unlikely. I also think it is unlikely but didn’t Kulak play RD in Montreal a fair amount? I don’t think we can ink a starting lineup on defence just yet – as our host here reminds us every few days.

Broberg played lots of right side in Sweden and Samorukov played the right side back in the KHL when he went for a Covid-assignment. I couldn’t tell you about Kulak necessarily but I would suggest he’s probably more effective on his natural side where he’s played as an Oiler. I could be wrong but lots of players have played the other side and few are as effective (there are some, of course). Kris Russell did yeoman’s job over the years playing his off side but he was objectively and subjectively less effective, markedly.

I’m not convinced that Holland is finished nibbling around the edges and I would be surprised if he doesn’t have a cap clearing move in his back pocket for when he has finished and knows all of his options. RW still looks like it could use some work for example.

Something has to give on the cap. A 21 man roster to start the season is not tenable, its unmanageable. Yup, one more top 9 RW is needed (or else Hyman is moving over).

pts2pndr

You could look at it as Murray could free up Kulak to play right D in the event they move Barrie and or there is an injury to a right side D this also allows Murray to play third pairing left D if the team moves Broberg to third pairing right D. There are actually numerous ways the coaching staff has to move the D around given the Acquisition of an other veteran D. The question you need to ask is where does management see Barrie playing this season? First pairing with Nurse, third pairing with Broberg or second pairing with Kulak. It could be all of the above depending on the team they’re playing. I personally think it gives the teams coaching many option’s which can be a good thing! We wait.

OriginalPouzar

Looking at that roster and I continue to think there is one main hole, a top 9 right winger. Jesse and Kailer can each play on any of the top 3 lines and D. Ryan is a great 4th line RW and PK guy.

Yes, there are 6 players that should be able go give LW minutes on the NHL team (including Benson and Holloway) and add another if one of Nuge or McLeod shift over (although, if they aren’t deploying Holloway at center, 4C would become a hole).

Evan Rodrigues seems to the be perfect reasonable addition and, at this point in the off-season, I’m thinking $1.5MM is likely the max.

Of course, cap room, there isn’t even cap room for sign McLeod for $1MM and run a 22 or 23 player roster.

Foegele out and Rodrigues in is the primary move. Run with a 22 player roster (which I don’t like). This may require Benson as 4LW with Janmark as 3LW as Holloway is a bit more expensive.

I guess Milano in and moving Hyman to the right is another option, I just want to keep that guy on the left but it may not be an option.

CopperandBlue

Rod would be a good add

Kert

There are so many forwards who can play multiple positions, I think of it as a top nine. McDavid, Drai, Hyman, Nuge, Kane, Yamamoto, Puljujarvi, Foegele, McLeod.

4 centers, 3 spots, so one will C will be on the wing. Outside of Yost, everyone has Kane on the left side. Foegele, too. Yamamoto and Puljujarvi on the right. Hyman can play either side.

If you look at it as a top 9, there isn’t a hole. Sure, if you are moving Foegele for cap reasons you’re creating a hole that could be filled with Rodrigues, or even internally (Holloway or any given McKegg who is playing well on the 4th line.).

But I don’t think that hole exists without creating it first.

(If keeping Hyman on the left is important to you, you could always put whichever C that is moving to the wing on the right)

jp

Sure, if you are moving Foegele for cap reasons you’re creating a hole that could be filled with Rodrigues, or even internally (Holloway or any given McKegg who is playing well on the 4th line.).

I think Janmark is the most likely player to replace Foegele (or other) in the top 9, unless Holloway beats him out of the spot in camp.

Agree with all the rest!

OriginalPouzar

I think Holloway would be “battling” with Janmark for 3LW in that scenario and also “battling” with Benson, Shore, etc. for 4LW.

jp

Agreed on Holloway. Kert didn’t mention Janmark at all, so just adding him to the group likely to fill a top 9 role if Foegele (or another forward) is traded (IMO he is the most likely of the ‘others’ to take a top 9 spot).

Kert

That’s fair. Janmark isn’t far off Foegele production wise. TBH, I’m just not as familiar with Janmark as I’d like to be.

Janmark and Ryan both have 420 regular season games under their belts. Both are good for about 10g-15a a season. Are the wheels coming off of 35 year old Ryan faster? Probably. But to me they are both McKeggs. They are the best of the McKeggs, but McKeggs none the less.

Hopefully he proves me wrong.

jp

I’d taken McKeeg’s to be borderline NHLers, in and out of the lineup, etc. I consider Janmark and Ryan both full NHLers and a step above the McKeeg’s.

I don’t know that much about Janmark either, but he’s never in his 420 game career been played as even a 4th liner, never mind a McKeeg (he’s mostly played 3rd line minutes, with more 2nd than 4th). Based on his prior usage, I’d take it as a sign the Oilers have great forward depth if they can push him down to a 4th line role this season.

Kert

Fair, maybe McKeggin’ Janmark and Ryan is a little harsh. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

jp

🙂

OriginalPouzar

Well, that does leave 4C – some may not think this is a material spot but they won’t/can’t play 11F every night (and it should only be a rare thing in my opinion). I don’t think Kane has ever played RW and I don’t think Puljujarvi or Yamamoto have ever played left so I think we can lock those guys.

Nuge and McLeod don’t help on right wing.

Yes, Hyman has played some right wing but he sure looked less effective to my eye on the right side last year and I think there was a reason he’s played mostly left wing in his career.

I heard about Foegele playing the right side in Carolina but can’t speak to its utility.

jp

If all the forwards remain, I think the most likely alignment is:

Kane-McDavid-Yamamoto
Hyman-Draisaitl-Puljujarvi
Holloway-Nuge-Foegele
Janmark-McLeod-Ryan

Even if Holloway is sent for more seasoning, Janmark-Nuge-Foegele remains a solid 3rd line (on paper at least).

OriginalPouzar

I don’t disagree with any of that except, if all the forwards remain, I’m not sure Holloway is on the roster and we may see a Benson, Shore or Malone in the lineup – all of them save some cap space over Holloway (after he’s on for opening cap compliance, maybe at a 20 player roster, yikes).

Its really hard to do this as I just don’t see no cap out move.

pts2pndr

All the centre’s are left shot which is not ideal for the right side but it could work!

TruthHurts98

I like the signing, having more depth beyond rookies is a wise move. Fine as a 7th or 8th D option for the Avs if we want to go by their template. Broberg might beat him to.a roster spot straight up, but if he doesn’t, there’s a safe option in Murray. I think a trade is coming, Sverson would be amazing if the Devils have to part ways. Only a hypothetical, but so far this summer Holland seems intent on adding more solid depth to surround the star players. I haven’t been this optimistic for a season in decades!

jp

I think it’s extremely unlikely we see Barrie traded for a defenseman making more than $3M.

Saving less than $1.5M on that transaction would mean the Oilers still need to make another cap clearing transaction in order to run a 22-man roster.

OriginalPouzar

I really have no idea what Holland is going to do.

He needs to do something and I honestly have no idea what he’s going to do or going to try to do.

One thing that is in my head sometimes is that I think Ken Holland understand the “real person element”, I mean, if he’s planning on trading Tyson Barrie, with a wife and small children, I think he’s want to give him see time leading up to the season to get his family settled, etc. He’s got a 2-year contract left, it wouldn’t be like a rental deadline trade where the player probably just keeps his family where it is.

pts2pndr

If Barrie is traded it would likely be for a prospect and a draft choice to free up the 4.5 cap. This would then allow Holland some flexibility and the ability to have a 23 man roster.

jp

I think a Barrie trade could just as easily be for a cheaper Dman as a draft pick.

If he is traded for a pick/prospect, IMO the team will need to add an NHL quality replacement, and there’s only a couple of those remaining on the market.

I guess it’s possible Murray moves into the top 6 to replace Barrie, with Samorukov or other as 7D, but I feel like that’s too much of a downgrade to the D corps that’s already a bit thin (at least with proven players).

OriginalPouzar

I agree, I can’t imagine that Holland moves Barrie without back-filling with an established NHL RD.

pts2pndr

My belief is that Holland has a number of irons in the fire re getting cap compliant as well as a backup plan if they fall through. It is fun to spitball as to what might transpire. I have confidence in the new management team as they have earned my trust. The acquisition of Campbell as well as getting Kane and Kulak resigned was impressive work in my opinion.

OriginalPouzar

I’m sure he does as well – I just have no real idea what they are.

jp

Agreed. And I really didn’t think they’d be able to add a quality goalie AND re-sign both Kane and Kulak. Very pleased with the summer overall.

defmn

I’ll be even more pleased if Holloway makes the team on merit out of camp.

To me it is important that Broberg and Holloway make the same kind of steps this year that McLeod & Bouchard made last season.

jp

Yes, that’s the main growth area for the team at this point, with most of the core locked in place for a number of years.

OriginalPouzar

I keep coming back to Holland acknowledging the cap issue as they entered the off-season and said “I can’t bring the entire team back” and, well, then he did – subject to a cap structuring moves that’s yet to come.

cowboy bill

This signing could change a lot of things . They might be able to trade Tyson Barrie or there may be other trade options now , or they might just utilize a veteran defense and when injuries occur there’s plenty of depth with the likes of Broberg , Neimalinen , Desharnais & Samarukov waiting in the wings . There are lot’s of possibilities for Holland to look at and fitting under the cap is not overly challenging.

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

I think depth for injury cover is the most likely scenario here yup.

The injuries in D last year were real and spectacular and at one point was Barrie lining up with 5 other rookies for a two game stretch. Those injuries were a big reason Holland ended up busting a career long streak of not firing a coach mid-season and I doubt he’ll want to see that repeated.

I like this signing. Very low risk with a moderate upside and someone who can spot in the defensive defense role.

The bonus overages for Holloway and Broberg aren’t real overages they can be sealed up by Sekera’s contract coming off the books next year so there’s no real worry there.

Roster looks set to me. Maybe another vet forward on a PTO but that’ll be about it.

This is exciting. Got ourselves a very good little team here this year by the looks of it. Need some guys to take “reasonable” steps forward and we’ll by cooking with Nitro.

Excellent offseason by Holland. Probably one of the best in the NHL if folks aren’t wearing their blinders.

Absolutely killed it compared to Dubas, Treliving, McCrimmon and McFarland. All those teams got demonstrably worse and only a true troll would argue otherwise.

Good job Kenny now it’s up to the boys to deliver.

Only a few weeks left!

OriginalPouzar

The bonus overages for Holloway and Broberg aren’t real overages they can be sealed up by Sekera’s contract coming off the books next year so there’s no real worry there.

I don’t really agree with this position. The cap space for next year is the cap space and any performance bonuses that vest will decrease the cap dollar for dollar next season. Unless he’s hurt, Bouch will assuredly hit his $850K (4 sched A bonuses) and any that Holloway, Bougault or Holloway hit will decrease next year’s cap space even more.

Its unlikely that Broberg will hit any – 10G, 25A, top 4 in TOI – maybe top 3 in plus/minus of end of season all rookie team.

Holloway probably won’t vest either – 20G, 35A, top 6 in TOI – maybe top 3 in plus/mind of end of season all-rookie team.

Also, having Broberg and Holloway on the opening cap compliant roster submission (even if they are assigned right after) is a real thing that has to happen (if not, their cap hits rise by $850K and $500K this season when called up).

Last edited 2 years ago by OriginalPouzar
OriginalPouzar

Roster looks set to me. Maybe another vet forward on a PTO but that’ll be about it.

Its tough for it to be fully set thought as, after adding McLeod around $1MM and putting the two dudes on LTIR, its not cap compliant, not even with only 22 players.

There needs to be a cap out move which will effect the roster, right?

OriginalPouzar

I’m not sure how this would make a trade of Tyson Barrie more likely as, without a back-fill on 3RD in, or with, the trade, it would leave the org with two established right shot d-men?

Last edited 2 years ago by OriginalPouzar
Primetime

 My question is: Could we see a trade involving one of the defensemen on the roster above?

That was my immediate thought too LT. But now that I think about it, I actually think this was the best way to ensure they keep all their current D, including Barrie (who they seem to really like)

Options:

  • Alternate Broberg/Murray at 3LD. Both to ease Broberg into the pros, but also have a solid defensive minded D to play with the sometimes erratic Barrie at 3RD
  • If ANY RD get hurt, Broberg can move to 3RD and play with steady vet Murray
  • Woody/Manson seemed to like playing 7D for a number of games. Again, able to limit Broberg’s minutes in a game if Murray on the bench

I actually think this signing is more of an opening to trade a forward (ie. Foegle)

Last edited 2 years ago by Primetime