In the 20 years I’ve been writing this blog, there have always been things I post that irritate readers. Back in the day, I talked about balance and people would get upset, and then I talked about clusters and that would bring the house down. Trading actual NHL players for draft picks is something I used to recommend and that would get some lively rage going. In modern times it’s less intense, but draft and prospect talk has less appeal than in 2010 or even 2015. Universally unpopular? NHL equivalencies. Now, you could ask me why I would go on a 20-year run of content that has never been popular, but I’ve always been a stubborn kind of fellow. This is a thing that interests me.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Five curious Oilers trends that may or may not regress
- Lowetide: What’s Xavier Bourgault’s NHL ETA? Does he get a look this season?
- DNB: Stuart Skinner’s 40 saves lift Oilers over Panthers
- Lowetide: What should the Edmonton Oilers expect from Klim Kostin?
- DNB: Oilers must learn how to cope without Evander Kane
- Lowetide: How close to balanced are the 2022-23 Edmonton Oilers?
- DNB: Oilers’ Evander Kane hospitalized after skate blade cuts his arm
- Lowetide: Oilers top prospect is unclear for the first time in a dozen years
- DNB: Why Oilers’ latest ‘pathetic’ performance from Jack Campbell is a growing issue
- Lowetide: Oilers rookie Stuart Skinner is chasing history
- DNB: Ryan Smyth on Oilers memories, keepsakes and the current team: Q&A
- Lowetide: Making room for Dylan Holloway
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers start October slow but finish month strong
- DNB: The Oilers have a third line that’s settling in
- Jonathan Willis: Jakob Chychrun would look good on the Oilers, but is there a deal to be had?
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers reasonable expectations for every player in 2022-23
- Lowetide: Oilers top-20 prospects, summer 2022
2015 summer NHLE’s
There are 12 men in bold, a dozen future NHL players of at least some value. There’s 13, but William Lagesson has played just 60 games so I excluded him because I don’t like the number 13. Bet you didn’t know that!
The men over 40 points (Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl) were destined for greatness and I think Darnell Nurse was on a trajectory by that time as well. One of the reasons I wanted to talk about NHLE today, aside from the fact there’s no Oilers game tonight, is to draw attention to the role players who have had NHL careers.
Notice where Jujhar Khaira ranked in NHLE? Jordan Oesterle? When viewing these numbers it’s important to understand there are issues with placing every player on the same line. Not everyone will play the same spot on a team that this snapshot implies. Not every Tyler Pitlick was destined to play for seven different teams on an NHL journey. So, when viewing the current NHLE’s, keep in mind two things: 30+ points is a good number for a young player in junior or entry; some of the depth players will have NHL careers because they have speed (Oesterle) or size and a mean streak (Khaira). Here we go.
NHLE 2022-23 PROSPECTS
There are no McDavid or Draisaitl totals here, and we have to keep in mind that some of these players aren’t getting the kind of playing time they should because of an overabundance of rookies in Bakersfield. I’d specifically point to Carter Savoie and Tyler Tullio. Edmonton may have to deal a Greg McKegg or two sometime this season.
The best number posted here, in my opinion, is Matvey Petrov’s 36 NHLE. Now he was drafted in 2021, so Reid Schaefer is in his draft +1 and pushing past 31 points. That said, Petrov is just six months older than Schaefer, the age gap is less than normal.
Who are my one-dozen names to play 100+ games? I’ll name the Oilers first-round picks (Philip Broberg, Xavier Bourgault and Reid Schaefer) and another one (Klim Kostin) who has already played 47 NHL games. That’s four.
After that, in no specific order, I’ll say Mike Kesselring, Luca Munzenberger, Max Wanner, James Hamblin, Carter Savoie, Matvey Petrov and Tyler Tullio. No. 12? Maxim Berezkin but I don’t know if he’ll ever come over. You? What’s your list?
I should also say that I don’t believe 12 men will have careers of 100+ games. Edmonton isn’t drafting in the top-10 overall anymore and there’s less roster room for kids. I will say that the first-round picks, Kostin, Kesselring, Savoie, Petrov and Berezkin if he comes over are compelling. We’ll see.
MATEJ BLUMEL
No matter how you slice it, the scouts did a fine job in finding Matej Blumel and the Oilers organization neglected to sign him. Blumel’s 2020-21 season in the Czech league was worthy of signing, and the organization has enjoyed all kinds of success with players from that country. It’s gone now, but the idea that the scouts get it right and the management group drops the ball over an entry deal is galling, and this situation worthy of criticism. In my opinion. Scouts found a gem, management didn’t sign him. There’s no neutral ground here.
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
A busy day, TSN1260 10-2 in the midday. The Grey Cup is set, we’ll chat about the Canadian Men’s Soccer roster, Darren Dreger from TSN will handle the NHL weekend. NFL Monday Nighter includes the Eagles and Joel Embiid had a game for the ages in helping the 76ers out of a slump. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
I’m quite happy (for the first time in 20 years) with the state of our goaltending pipeline. The NHL level is sorted with a decent starter (I’m not at all worried about Campbell’s start) and a high quality young backup who will be a 1B sooner than later. Been bullish on Skinner since his last WHL season where he literally carried his team to the final. He will have the capacity to do that at the NHL in the future. Easily the best goaler we drafted since Dubnyk.
AHL is also sorted with a veteran tweener in Pickard who can be recalled any time if need be and a developing young guy (Rodrigue) who is finally starting to put it together (might be a coincidence that he’s doing better since his dad left the org – but maybe not – who needs that kind of pressure).
Might be time to draft another goaler relatively high this year or next (3rd round?) as the ranks under the AHL are looking thin. I’m not keen on anyone else in the org under Rodrigue.
Wait, as far as I know, Sylvain Rodrigue is still the Condors tending coach, no?
I thought I heard he was let go / left a while back
Noah Dobson with his 5th goal and 12th point.
On pace for 20 goals and 50 points.
Oops.
https://twitter.com/ericfrancis/status/1592207761747902464?s=46&t=N4padCtM9tzySS8JpJVUzw
It seems Sutter is not enamoured with his new $85M man.
Huberdeau with a goal in the 1st.
LT’s boy Kaliyev responds with a pair.
With the goal tonight, Huburdeau is all the way up to 1 goal (and 3 points) at 5 on 5 (and 2G, 7P overall).
“I excluded him because I don’t like the number 13.”
LT, why do you hate Puljujarvi?
IMO – the biggest surprises year to date are that most of the young players who were supposed to be making an impact, have quite frankly struggled to get going.
YAM FRY – 0 G
PULU – 1 G
HOLLOWAY – 0 G
BOUCHARD – 0 G (with 5 Assists and mixed D zone play)
BROBERG – M.I.A.
That’s a huge chunk of the supporting cast. And to me, if they can’t get going, this team will continue to be a fragile one that’s just over .500 …..
Any day now. Just you wait.
I know! I wanted to write “hold on, its coming” but Im not too sure about that.
For Bouchard, its really incredible how his offensive IQ can be so high, then it disappears in his own end. How does he watch video review of his defensive coverage with a straight face? Bouch needs to score to provide some balance.
Holloway is taking hold of his future, hes on turbo every game. I think with him, yes, its coming. Im betting 15 goals this season.
Yamo: When you are 155lbs you are at a disadvantage. You can still succeed but you need everything you got in order to compete. Yamo just a little off and he can become ineffective. Hes better playing 70% of the games full tilt, vs playing 100% of the games a little off kilter. When Kailer is on, hes very good.
Interesting take on Holloway.
In 12 GP he has only generated 9 SOG.
Unless that spikes in a massive way, he would require a couple of season to hit 15 goals.
That does not represent what Im seeing. Holloway is touching the puck all over the ice. This is one reason he has give-a-ways, because he has the puck and hes not treating it like a hot potatoe, he attempts plays. Scoring chances, break a ways, applies forecheck pressure. He shows high confidence. Its normal to be slow getting going in a new league, he has stepped up considerably. The second half of the season, Im convinced he’ll be in the conversation.
Agreed. Impact player in search of confidence. Once it clicks, a solid career ensues. Physical, fast, involved.
Yet Vasily Podkolzin has 80 more NHL games and has 1 more point this season than Holloway but we were assured that Vasily Podkolzin was the second coming….. That is not even getting into the injuries Holloway has worked through. Oh, and Podkolzin has double the shots (in a few more games) and still has shit to show for it. GFY
Yep…both players are underwhelming this season but one of them is generating shots at twice the rate of the other.
Define “twice”.
5V5 Shots/60
VP: 5.95
DH: 5.41
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playercompare.php?fromseason=20222023&thruseason=20222023&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=std&rate=y&p1=8481617&p2=8482077&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single
I’ll take Holloway over Byfield, anyhow the Kings should have taken the German after the great Leon trailblazed the path overseas.
The Kings drafted for need.
They will need a #1C as Kopitar declines.
While Byfield has battled numerous injuries, he just turned 20 so lots of track ahead.
I doubt Holloway has the upside of first line centre.
Byfield will never score more 22 if that’s a 1C your setting the bar low.
When he’s on he’s decent
His stats individually are ok, it seems to me outside of the heater with Drai and Nuge whenever his line stats are put up, he brings his lines down
Maybe I’m remembering wrongly
He also gets hurt often. To me he needs to drop the physical play and play with his brain, to what he does best
His injuries will only compound, nobody can continue to take a beating from players of whom the smaller guys are 25 pounds heavier than him when they’re at 180
Defensemen are small at 200. Staying healthy is a huge skill to stay in the league for a long run. Barring unusual accidents long term players learn how to play effectively while preserving themselves
These guys couldn’t score if they were walking around an NBA locker room dressed like Kardashians.
Ummm, the thought of Puljujarvi walking around an NBA locker room dressed like a Kardashian, is a …little bit humorous. And no, hopefully he would not score…
Now Yamamoto, well…
Just kidding Yamo, in case you come after me.
I think Pujo has next years halloween costume decided!
I’ll wait for the next 15 games where the schedule is (supposedly) easier – there should be more room for these tweeners to make plays and make hay against the soft parade. Is that a stubborn take?
Despite Holloways highlights and mistakes, I think we know what we have coming. To me it looks like a second line center, an excellent draft pick.
What we don’t seem to know, is what will Broberg be? We need that answer pretty quickly as the defense needs help and another soft puck mover is not the answer. Im sure Broberg will be valuable over coming years, but who is going to help sooner rather than later. And what assets are going out to obtain this new d-man? Broberg himself?
I realize you’ve been voicing concern on the defensive side in other posts, but do you realize Broberg is only 3 months older than Holloway and outscored him in the AHL last season?
The 2019 first round is beginning to look like a wasteland for D.
Other than Byram (who can’t stay healthy) and Seider, the entire class is in the AHL.
The 2020 draft which was predicted to be light on D has already produced 4 NHL regulars.
And was also predicted to be a generationally deep draft. 4 NHL regs is a stretch as Guhle and Sanderson have just got started (love Sanderson’s game tho). Schneider has blown me away after seeing him in junior. Him on the Dys which was rumoured for JT Miller wouldve been a boon for the franchise. Too bad Aquilini has his fingers in everything (too soon?).
2019 wasn’t lauded for its d prospects either. There were reaches ala Seider (looks really good despite struggles this season), Bro (middling but injuries have played a role), and Soderstrom, can’t say im versed on him.
Harley will be a significant player i stake my bike on it.
Byram i think is the best of either draft btw and its not close. Mo be damned.
Guhle is already dominating some games per reports about his play this season
He’ll be up and down, but it’s obvious he’s a very strong two way D already and is no wallflower
As LT says it’s not even with youth. But you can see what they will become barring injury. For we Oiler fans there is no young D we have that does better than not getting punked, the odd productive game with fewer blunders
Bouch has his passing and his shot, apparently defends zone entries well, but is under water with other defensive metrics and still has terrible games, instead of lesser games
Getting points is great, but it’s moot if you need baby sitting defensively, unless your points are elite, and his aren’t
It’s not that I don’t think Bouch is really talented, it’s just that in itself isn’t good enough to be a driver in the team winning a Cup. Every player has to win their role for the team to succeed
Connor and Leon, and everything breaking favourably might win a Cup, but as it stands it would just be one. There are too many inconsistent and under capable players to be a perennial contender right now. In the heart of the dynamic duo’s careers
Skinner so far is showing that he has top level potential. Some up and down, but also really strong games and solid NHL play
No I did not, good info.
My point was not to infer poor performance, but to evaluate what he’ll be and when he’ll get there. Its impatient I know, but the kind of decision that has to be made when your looking for final pieces of the puzzle.
Is Broberg that guy and we wait?
Aside – You know what shocked me? Wayne Gretzky’s comment that his brother told him Skinner was the best player in the AHL. I find this amazing as personally, i heard very little about Skinner and his development. Thus, I wonder what Keith would thinking about Broberg right now?
Skinner had some excellent runs in the post season when the real hockey begins .
Interesting aside about Keith Gretzky for sure. I also didn’t realize how highly regarded Skinner was until part way through last season, snuck up for sure.
On Broberg vs. Holloway, fair enough that D is the more urgent need. I’m about as sure Broberg will be a top 4 D as I am that Holloway will be a 2C, but I know many won’t agree on that. When exactly that happens though is far less clear (and it’s not a certainty that it will, obviously).
Unlike lots of folks here I never really expected Broberg to get to top 4 D this season, so him being in the AHL right now doesn’t really bother me. He’s progressing well, he had an exceptional AHL season last year at age 20, he’ll be back in the NHL soon enough.
What they do for this season I don’t know. IMO it won’t and shouldn’t include Broberg out though.
Am I the only one who would like to see the Oilers score less?
As I see it, The Oilers have one major issue. They are back to an identity crisis. Because they have Leon and Connor, they are known as an offensive powerhouse. They like it. They want to live up to it. Fancy passes are better than basic pass, skilled breakout is better than mucking it out, pretty goals get more attention. They identify with offence.
The fans promote this, all we talk about is offensive rates. The media loves it, “who hasn’t been contributing??” The players feel it. Pressure to contribute. But its a one way pressure, offense only.
Woody now has top 6 players on the PK, knowing he’ll get a goal every 10 PK’s. Hes cheating for offense too.
Even the dam goalie last year tried to put up points!
The Oilers have little pride in their defensive game. Watch them closely. They stand near a guy, close to a guy, in the lanes, active sticks, but rarely (except Kulak) do they actually take out a player. Why is it so easy for the opponent to get off shots against the Oil?
Contrast this to the offensive end where it is very difficult for Oilers to get open, having to fight through physical coverage. Anyway, I don’t see the Oilers advancing until this is fixed.
Woody should remember the lessons he brought last year. They need the entire team to win. Everybody must have responsibility; everybody must contribute with every role, this is not just a front row seat for the Connor-Leon show. This is Woody’s job.
1/ Get Connor of the PK. Give that PK back to the bottom six. Let them own it. They are the ones that established that good PK record last year. Give it to them and let them take pride in it.
2/ The more the Oilers lose due to poor defensive coverage, the more they play their offensive game. Negative cycle. If you can’t do it right (defence) or take a seat on the pine. Call up Brad Malone.
3/ The third line needs 50% goal share. Thats it. If they do that – enjoy it.
4/ Oilers skilled hockey has been beat by smart hockey. Smart hockey is puck management, which has been lacking, led by rookies but rookies are just copying the vets, …unsuccessfully.
The Oilers will be fun to watch, but until the Oil can play smart with the puck and smart in their own end, I think they will come up short. Less goals, more defence.
Well said, couldn’t agree more.
These are some good ideas. I personally don’t like defence first hockey and have always cheered for the Hawks, Nucks, and Lightning over the Kings, Bruins, and other Sutter/Hitchcock clones. Those teams definitely had some snarl and filth but they played hockey the exciting right way. It’s a copycat league so while i don’t like that the Avs beat us, i like that they represent what hockey should be – beautiful, fast, exciting, relentless.
1) I’m pretty sure Connor only goes out for the end of PK’s when the PP is tired from all that zone time and they can take an opportunity to let rocket boots fly.
2) Agreed, chasing goals is easy when you have 97 and 29 but imo it undermines the entire operation. Coaches gotta win tho.
3) That would be lovely and something not seen for a very long time.
4) Agree, reminds me of an Anaheim OT game where the Ducks flat out refused to play. They waited 2-3 full minutes before 97 and 29 left and immediately went down and won the game. Cheap, annoying, cowardly, whatever you wanna say. They won the game. Some more of that ingenuity from Woody is needed imo.
On point 3) it was effectively seen the back half of last season. Starting with the arrival of Kane, RNH started centering the 3rd line (This was not something new created by Woodcroft, Tippett started it immediately once he had enough quality wingers that Nuge could move down). Nuge played over 90% of his 5 on 5 time the remainder of the season without Leon or Connor and since Leon and Connor played more than 90% of their time without each other, this basically confirms Nuge was centering the 3rd line for over 11 minutes per game. In those last 43 games, Nuge played 31 and had a goal share of 53% when on the ice without Leon or Connor (16/14) or 2.82 GF/60 vs 2.47 against. This got dropped in the playoffs due to Leon’s 2 injuries and playing on Connor’s wing.
For this season so far, if Jesse and Yamamoto had both played closer to their average as opposed to both slumping terribly, or if Holloway hadn’t gotten smoked early on, RNH may still have been centering the 3rd line at least until the Kane injury. With Kane out and none of these 3 currently performing at top 6 levels, RNH will likely remain in the top 6 for a while. That leaves McLeod as the 3rd line center and so far he is 4/6 gf/ga with Connor, Leon or Nuge. Not much improvement needed to get to the 50/50 level for the sophomore center.
I’m not necessarily in to more minutes for McDavid, and PK minutes to boot but I would note that he’s only been on the ice for one PK goal against, in 13:25.
I can’t really opine on his personal impact on that result or how much he’s played against PP1 vs. PP2, for example, but we know he’s fast and quick with good stick and a smart hockey brain and, frankly, he likely makes the other team change their PP a bit knowing he can turn any 50/50 puck in to a breakaway.
Maybe he’s just good at the PK?
That’s how I see it
The Oilers lose every game they don’t play with speed.
That is their differentiator and the deciding factor in games.
Haven’t seen one that has anything to do with anything else.
If they play with speed the whole game (or even a majority of it), they win.
wonder if the leafs will contact jason demers to cover for their D?
Hamilton Tiger Cats acquire the rights to Bo Levi Mitchell
https://www.tsn.ca/cfl/hamilton-tiger-cats-acquire-bo-levi-mitchell-s-rights-calgary-stampeders-1.1877987
Wrong blog, DB.
Why did Dickerson bench him to begin with? Bo must of told him off, it’s the only thing that makes sense
He became erratic
That sucks
The Elks need him more than any other team
Unless Jones can pull a QB out of thin air
I’m not sure will be eager to sign in Hamilton given the state of that team.
But the Elks are such a tire fire I wouldn’t think he would want to get involved.
Saskatchewan?
You deserve a medal for writing a blog for 20 years.
And imagine – it used to be twice a day!
I can’t. Was this back in 2014 or earlier?
An interesting article over at ON regarding Dubnyk and his take on former teammate, Nail Yakupov.
https://oilersnation.com/news/this-guys-an-idiot-former-edmonton-oilers-goaltender-devan-dubnyk-takes-aim-at-nail-yakupov
Unpopular opinion: I think this says more about Dubnyk than Yak.
Starting it off with “This guy was an idiot. A complete idiot” just makes Dubnyk look like a dick, IMO. Clearly he didn’t like the guy. Not very professional, but it makes for a good headline.
We get a story about Yakupov taking high shots, Dubnyk tells him to stop, and then what happens? Did he stop? Did he continue? Find out next time on Dragon Ball Z?
It does indeed make him look like a dick, but the players always know.
Have you ever been head hunted by a 95 mile a hour puck or baseball in practice on purpose? I’m surprised Dubnyk didn’t punch him out if it was Hextall or Billy Smith it would of gotten bloody.
I think the point was Yak didn’t have a clue.
He can’t even stick around in one place in the KHL.
I like Yak If he was in a different environment with veteran players I do believe his career would of amounted to more than the high point of a 17 Goal rookie shortened year.
He didn’t that’s the story
That was my first thought too, but reading, it seemed pretty clear the implication was that Yakupov did not stop.
As is often the case with this sort of thing, I think it reflects poorly on both parties.
I think most would agree that the player was worthy of an NHL contract at the time and the fact is that the Oilers didn’t sign him. The Oilers “neglecting” to sign him is an opinion but based on some speculation. I would note that, if the Oilers “neglected” to sign him, then 31 other teams also “neglected to sign him” given he was available to all 32 NHL teams but decided to play back home for another year.
If he was a slam-dunk deserving of a contract and was an NHL UFA I don’t understand why the Oilers made a mistake by not signing him unless the other 31 NHL teams also made a mistake?
I think its relatively reasonable to think that he wanted one more year back home knowing that, in all likelihood, he’d be riding the buses in the AHL making less money than playing back home. His chance of being in the NHL last season were all but nil and he very well could have wanted to keep control of his development for one last season prior to signing with an NHL team.
That opinion is speculation, of course – but it seems reasoned based on the facts and no team signing him for a year rather than the Oilers forgetting. Deciding not to sign is much more reasonable than “forgetting”, and that could be the case, but I wonder why no other team signed him for a season if that is the case, right?
one of the only things we can say for certain was his stated interest in earning a contract in Edmonton.
If nobody wanted him why is he in the NHL with more Goals scored than Yamamoto even though he’s only played 2 games.
One would think, even if 31 other teams didn’t move to sign him right away, that the Oilers SHOULD have had the inside track considering he had stated his desire to play for them previously.
Perhaps they didn’t value the asset enough to cement the relationship?
That, to me, is the most plausible explanation.
The comparison to Yamamoto is ridiculous but the premise is the point.
He was worth of an NHL contract, available to all 32 teams and didn’t sign with any.
Perhaps he didn’t think the time was right for him to sign in the NHL and wanted to wait a season, as he did……
I would rather have 2 years of Blumel at league minimum than Yamamoto at 3 million per for the next 2 years. I see a comparison it’s called a positive asset or negative asset. You railed on Kassian for years everyday of being a negative asset yet Yamo at 3 million a year is somehow untouchable to criticism.
LOL – Kassian spent the better part of 3-4 seasons being highly ineffective and, often, detrimental to team success.
Yamamoto is coming off a 20 goal season and, no, a poor 13 game stretch (while playing injured) does mean a player with 1 career goal is anywhere near his level.
Of note: despite that massive goal scoring prowess of Blumel, he’s been on the ice for more goals against than goals for….
Has any reporter ever asked Kenny about this? He’s usually pretty straight forward with his answers.
no no no you cannot have a measured take on this situation. matej blumel is the second coming of jaromir jagr and ken holland and his crew of idiots (that are all less competent than a sweat pant clad, pimple ridden teenager tweeting from his moms basement) neglected to sign him because they just forgot and dont keep track of deadlines.
love all the nuance here! Very bright! Very intelligent! So much respect for your peers. Congrats on being a dickhead what an accomplishment
I think his reply is funny!
not sure if that was directed at me.
It just seems that every step of the game there is a group of very vocal fans saying holland is senile and needs to retire and he is bungling and lacks creativity, and any move he makes is awful because it doesnt entirely line up with their idea of how they would build a team.
Hindsight is 20/20, it is easy to say now that the oilers should have signed blumel but at the time it didnt look like such a sure bet.
we also tend to think that every NHL player wants to play in edmonton which is far from true, many players are not interested in playing in this market which limits the GM’s hand.
I would also say that whilst keith looked like an awful trade initially and i critiqued it heavily, we can now see that he brought a lot of positives to the team.
Yeah man who would want to play with that overrated Connor dude and his sidekick Leo or whatever his name is. It’s like years ago Detroit was winning Cups but they couldn’t get any Bro’s to play their dude, you could actually buy a house in Detroit for a dollar dude, so they paid off the Russian KGB for 5 star CCCP players dude, so they basically cheated dude, if you know what I mean dude.
Yeah, it looks like it’s had a very strong personal effect. Those damn teenagers hey! Principal Skinner.gif
Anyone who doesn’t sing the praises of the resident hockey man is a child! Crazy. The boomers haven’t improved their material since the Tambellini days.
”we tend to think everyone wants to play in Edmonton”
Who’s ever said this? What’s the relevance with Matej Blumel? we do know he stated an interest in earning a contract in Edmonton.
“Hindsight is 20/20, it is easy to say now that the oilers should have signed blumel but at the time it didnt look like such a sure bet”
What if it isn’t hindsight? What if it clearly looked to be a misstep after the up arrows following his jump in production in the Czech league? There was plenty of outrage at the time, that didn’t just come out of nowhere this week. Framing it as only hindsight is absurd.
The team is capped out and Holland has lit a bunch of picks on fire. Blumel never looked like a sure thing but it was still a lottery ticket that could have been a cheap fill in on an ELC. It’s a valid criticism of Ken. The team needs players pushing on ELC’s to stay competitive in a salary cap league.
Not sure what the relevance of Duncan Keith trade is to Matej Blumel either, or what it is clear we are missing right now. I’d appreciate it if you could elaborate on that.
I just watched Vegas have a deal voided over an NTC.
Imagine, Connor McDaid with an NHLe of 63 points (and Leon at 41) – lol
The one frustrating thing with Chaulk is that he seems to be harsh on the youngsters and mistakes. Both Tulio and Savoie have seen ice time decreased and them buried a bit from mistakes on the defensive boards, etc. (at least it seems that way) and its a bit frustrating.
Woody is giving Holloway more rope in the NHL with those mistakes than the rookies in the AHL it seems.
I can’t say I’ve been all that impressed with Chaulk. We’re not close to the action in Bako and there’s little reporting, so we have to trust Keith’s eye on the situation, but from the little we can see, I think the org can do better.
LT, stay stubborn. It suits you and the blog and we’re grateful for it.
Thinking through LT’s Athletic Article above. I appreciate that everyone is focused on CmD’s goal scoring. Its a welcome development in what is otherwise an unreal skill set. But I think we’ll need to keep an eye on that overall point total more and more as we work our way through this long NHL season.
The rubber truly hits the road for six weeks following this little breather and other than Vegas, Dallas and maybe Minny (Devils are onto their 4th string Goaler), there isn’t a defensive stalwart of an opponent until we get to the new year. Actually quite a few run and gunners (if they can be called that) compared to lockdown types. Quality of Comp isn’t gangbusters the rest of the year. Maybe even a bit of soft underbelly if you look just right (tempering expectations).
Even during the Swoon the PP has hummed along at 30% but given the comp coming up it might be fair to estimate a few more PP opps and perhaps a few more goals. McD now out on the PK too so perhaps a SHP? Shouldn’t factor that in. With Kane gone you have to wonder about 5v5 but at the same time I’m with LT that JP should regress upwards if not for a bit.
22 left in 22 so we’re at 38 total to close the year. We easily see 50 points but what’s the RE for our Generational in these final games? Is 70 doable? Is 80 too crazy? What about 30 goals total in that stretch? Any chance we see 35? No way we see 40 right?
I know I know way ahead of myself and its weird to focus so much on one player but with only two games this week I have too much time on my hands and too much time to think.
Jake Muzzin’s career likely over.
TML place him on LTIR with a cervical spine injury.
Leafs get $5.6 million in cap relief.
You might be overstating that just a tad. He’s being re-evaluated in February.
He might not be. A lot of local media in Toronto have been quietly hinting that Muzzin’s playing career is likely done. It hasn’t been getting the traction it likely deserved because of all of the other drama with the TML.
And really, is there a more trustworthy bunch of people, objective and without agenda, than the local Toronto hockey media. 😉
Hopefully more details are forthcoming with regards to severity, and I wish all the best for Jake whatever happens, but that re-evaluation in Feb tells me neither the player nor the org have pulled the plug on this season just yet.
Muzzin turns 34 in a couple of months and has only one more year left on his contract.
Doubtful he wants to risk the rest of his life for that.
You have specific details of the injury? Please, tell us more. The number of years left on his contract is irrelevant, btw. He would get paid whether he decides to play or not, irrespective of term remaining.
I think he’s going to ride his LTIR Pony off into the sunset. I would say he’s more concerned about his quality of life moving forward than trying to get one last contract at 35 with a bad, bad back.
Just in time for Dubas to hemorrhage more 1st round picks for a defenseman who can replace him in the batting order and fix the tire fire that is the Leaf’s defense.
Muzzin will be on LTIR through next season.
The tire fire D in Toronto has given up 44 goals.
The D in Edmonton has given up 58.
What is your point? Have not seen many, if anyone, declaring Edmonton’s defense the class of the league.
cue the McDavid wants to return home chatter from back East
So, effectively they now have enough cap space to activate Matt Murray if/when he’s healthy (and not anything else notable)? Am I reading that correctly?
If this turns out to be the case, what a gut-hit for the fans of the Leafs.
They just recently got out of LTIR hell and now are hit with the new that they will be back in it through the end of next season. Sucks to have such limiting cap structuring going forward….
How is this is a positive development??
They need a healthy Jake Muzzin more than the cap space to spend futures on a Jake muzzin replacement.
and he may be back later this year
Nowhere did I claim it was a positive development.
Something weird going on in these NHLe numbers charted above. As always it is essential to state whose methodology and factors are being used whenever these numbers are being deployed. We’re sciencey here, right?
I’ve ran the numbers for Bourgault and Petrov through three separate tools. They were drafted the same year, and both in Juniors last year so should make a (relatively) reliable comparison. I get nowhere near the discrepancy in their numbers shown above. The tools I used were the Vollman calculator, the one at Dobber and the numbers produced by data scientist Patrick Bacon.
Here’s how it went…
The starting numbers:
Bourgault: 75 pts, 43 gms, 1.74 pts/gm
Petrov: 90 pts, 63 gms, 1.43 pts/gm
Right there alarm bells should be going off. Bourgault scored at a 20% better rate yet has a 60% lower NHLe according to LT. I don’t think there’s a person out there who thinks the O is that much better than the Q.
NHLe:
Vollman: Bourg = 40.61 Petrov = 37.83
Dobber: Bourg = 41 Petrov = 38 (looks like it is using Vollman’s numbers)
Bacon: Bourg = 16.16 Petrov = 16.86
Bacon’s numbers are the only ones that look anywhere near realistic to me… i.e. numbers that are actually in the range of what we would expect from either player if they were playing in the NHL this year. Vollman has 38 points for Petrov. Does anyone actually believe that the bell curve of possible outcomes for Petrov playing in the Bigs this year would center around 38 points? Or the 36 number LT has? I sure don’t. But that’s a side issue to our discussion and not all that important if we are simply looking at this from an ordinal perspective (ie ranking the prospects’ offense).
The important thing to note is that in all three cases, the difference between the two players’ NHLe are essentially immaterial (41~38, 16~17). Not sure how LT was able to generate such a massive difference in his numbers. Accordingly, I don’t find the numbers he posted at all believable, either on an ordinal basis or on actual translation. These two players basically posted the same offense last year.
I *think the numbers in the post are early returns for this season, which would account for the discrepancy (though I have not checked). Aside from Bourgault’s low number, Lachance showing a pulse is a very new thing and suggests this seasons stats are being used.
This season? Wut? The one thing NHLe requires is robust sample size. That’s like saying the production of Yams or Pujo thus far this season is reflective of who they are as players. Well, if that’s the case, at least now I know I can disregard ALL the numbers above as essentially meaningless.
Well, actually a ton of people are saying that. 🤷
There’s a ton of people stating that the two players will actually finish the season with circa 20 points? Are they betting people? I mean it’s not out of the realm of possibility but it is nowhere near likely either.
No, but people are saying their start is reflective of who they are as players – many are using their starts as evidence the players are 3rd liners rather than top 6 forwards.
it looks like LT was spot on in his opening paragraph today 😂
Yeah it’s very clearly marked 22/23 Prospects NHLE.
FWIW I also read it as “NHLe for 22-23 prospects”, not specifically “prospects 22-23 NHLe”.
On yesterday’s, it was Chiarelli who effed the Oil Kings also.from 2015 to 2018.
https://oilersnation.com/news/edmonton-oilers-arent-helping-chiarelli-be-successful
No one said the Oil Kings weren’t bad in those 4 seasons. You still didn’t address that they were already pretty bad in 14/15 nor prove that anyone other than Chiarelli was responsible for Hill being hired.
I think that article has aged poorly.
During his interviews, Chiarelli found the guy who turned around the franchise.
Which was my point from yesterday.
And (as usual) Redbird brings up some strong points worth acknowledging.
I find it odd that you’re taking this stance this forcefully, when there really is uncertainty over what happened and why.
Even if it’s not particularly likely, it truly is possible that the player was offered a deal and chose not to sign it.
And beyond that, IMO there absolutely is neutral ground. Blumel’s NHLE did not suggest a prospect of note until this season in the AHL.
Draft -1 (normal draft year) NHLE = 8 (USHL)
Draft year (normal draft +1) NHLE = 23 (USHL; he was drafted at 19)
Draft +1 (normal draft +2) NHLE = 6 (Czech)
Draft +2 (normal draft +3) NHLE = 23 (Czech)
————-
This is when the non-signing with the Oilers occurred
————-
Draft +3 (normal draft +4) NHLE = 17 (Czech)
But a strong World Championship (10 4-4-8)
————-
At this point he signed with Dallas
————-
Draft +4 (normal draft +5) NHLE = 49 (AHL, 9 5-6-11)
Plus 2 NHL games and counting
Even if the Oilers chose not to sign him (or chose not to sweeten his ELC beyond the standard for his draft position), I have a hard time faulting them particularly. Your opinion is clear, but I don’t agree this situation is worth of criticism.
I know. Therm’s fightin words 😉
I am surprised by how many non-prospects are playing for the Bake
McKegg
Malone
Grifith
Demers
and the AHL deals like Luke Esposito, Justin Bailey, Dino Kabmeitz, Yanni Kaldis
I will add Desharnais into that bunch, tho he helps the team win now.
You need roster space for injuries and a few pro’s for the mentorhship role.
And I don’t agree that McKegg is the guy b/c he’s got that role.
There’s an off-season cull, but right now, I think you’re in a good spot b/c Kostin and Janmark are up.
This is a lot of it, I think.
They were not planning/expecting to have to use a 21-man NHL roster when most of the depth was signed. And through the rest of the season Bakersfield may not end up being as crowded again as it was for the 1st month.
Oliver Rodrigue with a sparkling .927!
Talking about the things that upset the rabble without mentioning C-L-R? It might be time to add “failing to mention C-L-R as a thing that upset your readers” to the list of things that upset your readers. :p
I’m still bitter about it.
Ha was first thing I thought of
Calcium – Lime- Rust??
I misremember things all the time, but I think this explanation is within the proximity of reality.
LT used to write the lines Center – Leftwing – Rightwing, because that’s how they used to do it when he was a kid. I loved it because it had a specifically ol’ timey LT blog feel to it. It makes sense in a way; It’s McDavid’s line, or Drai’s line, start with them.
The rabble rabbled about it, as rabbles do. LT gave in to their modern Leftwing – Center – Rightwing convention demands. Probably because he would rather engage in conversation about hockey than engage in conversation about how to present it.
Sleppy played a 102 games as a Oiler and NHLer. I thought for sure if healthy he would play at least 400-500 games. If not with the Oilers then with another NHL team. Did Sleppy really want to return to Russia are did he get bent over by the Oilers organization or was it a combo of both. We would be getting peak years of Sleppy right now as he is only 28 6 feet 2 inches 220 pounds can skate has skill and is trustworthy.
It’s the stubborn use of the term ‘regress’ to mean action in both directions that gets me.
I understand it is strictly correct – but used this way it is jargon and we have way too much of that.
Using it in the instance of having less of something and then gaining more of it to get to an average or mean does not make sense in terms of practical language.
I enjoy that this is mainly a place of nit-picking disputes rather than bare-knuckle (written) brawling.
It’s like people saying a score backwards (meaning not having the leading team first). This isn’t a tennis game where we’re concerned about who’s serving.
Lot of regression in this comment. 🙂
I fully believed Greg Chase to be a player and when Kyle Platzer went to Owen Sound and lit it up I thought oh lordy we have a bloomer. Nope, but the Chase thing was always curious to me. At the time it looked like he got a case of Hamilton’s. Buried on a late line and not given an opportunity. I’m glad the mentality has changed but wonder what might’ve been, Chase would’ve been like Tullio. Not a sure thing but i think Tyler has a better chance now on organization agenda alone.
There’s a lot of truth in there. I think Marco Roy was also a victim of that kind of handling
NHLE mostly introduced me to Age curves which I find to be much more useful/interesting for projection.
Through it, I learned very quickly that those overage BCHL picks were bad the moment they were made. I don’t much like NHLE but it’s like Corsi; in broad strokes it provides insight. 20 year olds under a PPG in a tier 2 league aren’t likely to make the show. Obvious now, which means we’ve come a ways.
The Byfield Lafreniere draft really put a focus on the age piece. Take the famous name sure thing who is one of the oldest players in his year or the big guy almost a year younger with inferior but similar numbers. 2 interesting wrinkles from that, 1 we’ve seen the Oilers employ the last few years.
1. Byfield was so big was he just suffering from a case of “I’m bigger than all of you” in how successful he was in junior hockey?
2. What does the team drafting want now? Since it was the Rangers, it was reasonable to believe with Kakko the year before and Panarin/Zibanejad in their prime that they wanted a plug and play option. Oil have done that too no doubt coinciding with the Mcdavid years. Help sooner, maybe give up some upside later but windows of winning are important.
Well, let’s just take yesterday’s debate, keep it going, and just for shits and giggles, throw some gasoline on top! Definitely stubborn.
Lol. This blog hasn’t survived for 20 years by saying “I hear you” 🙂
Miroslav Satan 363 career Goals. Matej Blumel 1 career Goal.
Most people only want to look at the evidence that confirms their worldview and will disregard anything that conflicts. In fact, simply because a piece of evidence conflicts with that worldview, the evidence must be wrong, not the other way around. It is much easier to disregard that inconvenient evidence than for a person let go of a worldview and build a new one. Humans have always done this.
I disagree
I am just a poor boy
Though my story’s seldom told
I have squandered my resistance
For a pocketful of mumbles such are promises
All lies and jest
Still a man hears what he wants to hear
And disregards the rest,
Is that Brogan Rafferty?
You are on fire today!
Now now, let’s be nice to the USHL Bloomington Thunder guy. He billeted with one of my buddies – good kid.
Source?
lie lie lie
lie lie lie lie lie lie lie
lie lie lie
— Simon & Garfunkel
Ok, You are more on fire!
I appreciate your outside the Oilers vacuum look at things. There is so much to be seen throughout the NHL and other leagues. We are very fortunate to be able to enjoy it.
I wonder who the one thumbs up is??????