In the book “On the Clock” I spent a small portion at the beginning of each season to describe the rookie NHL crop that entered the league in the year leading up to the draft. A season of rookies that delivers in-season and long term is rare. The Oilers had four in a row to start the NHL franchise on its merry way. In 1979-80, the Oilers graduated Kevin Lowe and Mark Messier to the NHL. Following year, it was Jari Kurri, Glenn Anderson and Paul Coffey. Next year? Grant Fuhr, Andy Moog, Charlie Huddy. The following year? Jaroslav Pouzar, Randy Gregg, Marc Habscheid. Compared to those four rookie crops, most of the modern era fades unless there’s a Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl leading it. What about 2022-23?
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: The 5 biggest reasons for Edmonton Oilers’ recent turnaround
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ 2022 NHL Draft class gains momentum
- DNB: What I’m hearing on Oilers’ trade deadline plans
- Lowetide: Is Oilers’ Vincent Desharnais an NHL defenceman?
- Lowetide: Unusual Nugent-Hopkins line gives Oilers coaching staff options
- DNB: The Oilers scratching Jesse Puljujarvi shows it’s time for them to part ways
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ defence evolving through a period of transition
- DNB: Why 11/7 works, Klim Kostin the folk hero, Jack Campbell’s progress
- Lowetide: Are the Oilers creative enough in cap management to make a strong trade?
- DNB: Oilers must act at the trade deadline
- Lowetide: Oilers midseason review of 2022-23 reasonable expectations
- Lowetide: Making the call on young Oilers in need of a contract this summer
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ December sleep walk a touch of deja vu
- Lowetide: Bakersfield Condors’ 2022-23 season review to date
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022
AUGUST PREVIEW OF THE 2022-23 ROOKIES
I wrote this in August (here).
- Total Rookies of Interest: There are 7. Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway, Stuart Skinner, Dmitri Samorukov, Markus Niemelainen, Vincent Desharnais. I’m also including Xavier Bourgault because he’s skilled and there could be an opening.
- 2022 Draft Notes: The Oilers had only one pick of true value in 2022 and spent it on Reid Schaefer. You can criticize the team for identifying a need and then acting on that need, but at No. 32 overall that’s a pick with a chance to fill the role projected in the NHL someday. It’s clear the organization has made enormous progress over the last decade.
- Best Player as a Rookie: Philip Broberg has 23 games experience, he was drafted by Holland and Woodcroft-Manson are Steve McQueen in Bullitt. Fast men play. He’ll get opportunities.
- Second Best Player as a Rookie: Dylan Holloway is a close second. I’ll throw Stuart Skinner in here in case opportunity knocks.
- Oldest Rookie: Vincent Desharnais is 26.
- Oldest Rookie Who Will Play a Lot: Stuart Skinner is 23, this is a young group.
- Most Unusual Story: Noah Philp is not a known commodity. A college man with an interesting scouting report that dovetails perfectly with team need. Today, there’s very little ahead of him in terms of player-type and what he brings. RHC making under a million with two-way ability? Yes, please! A solid month in Bakersfield could get him a spin in Edmonton on the fourth line. I’m not saying it will happen, only that the way is clear.
- Longest NHL careers: Broberg, Holloway, Skinner. Stay healthy, men.
- Anything Else? Vincent Desharnais lingers in the shadows, like a character in an Agatha Christie novel. He isn’t central to the plot, but are you absolutely certain? He always shows up when things are happening, could he be a bigger character in the story? Woodcroft likes him, he’s righthanded and a crane in human form. He has a chance.
UPDATE (JANUARY)
- Total rookies of interest: Not all of the seven named in August made it to the NHL this season. Dylan Holloway (44 games), Stuart Skinner (27), Markus Niemelainen (23), Philip Broberg (22) and Vincent Desharnais (6) made it, and James Hamblin (10) didn’t make my list but is in the NHL. Dmitri Samorukov was traded for Klim Kostin and Xavier Bourgault remains in the AHL.
- 2022 draft notes: Reid Schaefer has enjoyed a fine season, and Nikita Yevseyev has emerged as a legit prospect. Scott Wheeler also had nice things to say about Samuel Jonsson, so maybe there’s something there. The 2022 draft was only four players deep, but more than one true prospect is a rock solid trend based on where the Oilers were picking.
- Best Player as a Rookie: Stuart Skinner. He delivered in the first half when the organization badly needed someone to save the day. His numbers are impressive (top SP among rookie regulars) and he has the calm of a confident goaltender ready for the challenge. An absolute Godsend.
- Second best player: I’m going with Philip Broberg here. He has played fewer games with the Oilers but has helped settle things down. I know it’s not a major roster role, but Evan Bouchard was struggling to post outscoring numbers with previous partners (Bouchard’s underlying numbers have been strong all along) and Broberg has stepped in and flourished. Could be luck, but I give the Swedish blue the nod.
- Oldest rookie: Vincent Desharnais is 26.
- Most unusual story: James Hamblin didn’t get drafted and initially received just an AHL deal. He worked hard, found a way to impact the game, and has played in the NHL. I don’t know where he goes from here, but it’s a great story no matter what happens.
- Longest NHL careers: Broberg, Holloway, Skinner. Stay healthy, men.
- Anything else? Vincent Desharnais, man. His NHL debut and the games that followed have been surreal. Imagine having a need and finding it in the minor-league pipeline? No idea how long it lasts, but that was one inspired draft pick back in 2016. Like Skinner, he looks like he belongs.
TRADE DEADLINE
I’m writing about this for The Athletic this week and wanted to touch base today. There should be some interesting names coming in soon on the trade bait lists. Teams will be interested in moving out UFA players if they lose track of the playoff race. One of the players who didn’t make the cut for my article remains intriguing.
One team that could fall out of the race (Detroit) has a player (Jake Walman) who has a cap hit of just over $1 million. He is a LHD, Puck IQ has him playing 40.5 percent of his five-on-five time versus elites. In that time (190 minutes), he owns a DFF percentage (smart Corsi) of 58.7, which is almost 15 percent clear of his fellow DRW relative to their performance.
He plays with Moritz Seider, so there may be zooming. However, although they are fire together (NST has them 59.7 percent shot share five-on-five), Walman’s shot percentage without Seider (52.8) is superior to Seider without Walman (48.1 percent). Ken Holland would be likely to trade for Olli Maatta from Detroit, Walman is the guy Brad Holland needs to identify. Walman or someone like him.
MATVEY PETROV
The young man got off to a medium start to his OHL season, not poor in any way but also not setting the woods on fire. In the last nine games, he is 9-10-19 and now boasts 20-41-61 in 42 OHL games. He is tied for second in league scoring. We are focused on the AHL shooters (Xavier Bourgault, Carter Savoie, Ty Tullio and Raphael Lavoie) this season, but Petrov brings a helluva story and this recent spike should renew faith in him as a prospect. In 105 games in junior, he has 60 goals.
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
TSN 1260, 10-2 today, we have lots to discuss. The Oilers are on a heater, the Canucks are doing things that make one wonder, the NFL weekend was fabulous and we’ll touch base on Brooke Henderson (Mark Zecchino), the NHL (Darren Dreger) at large and the Canucks (Farhan Lalji). 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
Incredible to see the turnaround this season so far as the team overcomes their innate deficiencies.
Only last month I was whining for a pair of defensive defencemen, and now i only want 1 for extra cover in the playoffs.
Position wise there seems to be nothing to stop the Oilers from moving up the division. That is, unless they’re still mental midgets a hangover royale with cheese from the Lowe+MacT era.
I like seeing JP scratched, and hope they do it again unless he starts to progress as have become fed up with his lack of NHL ability. Kostin makes him look like a clown by comparison – Kostin is now the de facto 1st round pick from that draft.
After watching Yamamoto’s brave but pointless season so far I can’t get that Av player drilling him out of the playoffs which for a player of Yamamoto’s size is no shock to anyone who understands the physics of human beings banging into each other. Imagine Yamamoto vs Pronger.
its like a kid playing with the adults Yamo is a good energy player in your bottom 6 that should be used like a utility knife. Asking Yamo to play effectively full time in the top 6 is almost cruel with the punishment he’s recieving.
More numbers per NST
Western Conference
PTS% – 2nd
PTS – 3rd
GF% – 3rd
HDSC% – 1st
SV% – 6th
SH% – 6th
Battling hotter goalies isn’t holding them back, hopefully they can keep climbing for home ice
Pacific
PTS% – 2nd
PTS – 2nd
GF% – 2nd
HDSC% – 1st
SV% – 2nd
SH% – 2nd
The Kraken are the team ahead in each case. They have 4 more points in the time frame, but have played 2 more games. Smokin hot they are. How long can they keep it going on all fronts?
The Oilers are significantly better in the HD offensive chances metrics except HDSH% where the Fish have a 5% bump. HDSV% is a wash
What if they get Horvat, O’Reilly or one of the top D? I’m not worried that they add a scorer, they will have trouble outgunning us if we’re finishing well enough, based on the HD chances stats
But, if they add more strong 2 way forwards or Karlsson, that could be a playoff problem
The Oilers are looking good the past while aren’t they?
Just wanted add the SEA and EDM shot and scoring chance numbers (all situations, since Jan 1st).
Points%
SEA .792
EDM .750
Goals%
SEA 62.9%
EDM 59.2%
Shots%
SEA 51.5%
EDM 54.5%
Scoring chance%
SEA 47.3%
EDM 56.1%
HD scoring chance%
SEA 44.1%
EDM 61.7%
SH%
SEA 13.8%
EDM 11.7%
SV%
SEA .913
EDM .903
(EDM SV% is 12th in the league btw).
Maybe Seattle’s House of Cards cards can last all season, but I don’t know.
Can I buy and sell truck hitches with steer balls on the Google?
I have this really good idea to include personalized bumper stickers with “suck it xxxx” and people can put city names there.
Connor in an interview mentioned that he felt the ‘turn’ was after the Christmas break. Since Jan 1 full league:
PTS% – 4th
PTS – 5th
GF% – 5th
HDSC% – 2nd
SV% – 12th
PDO – 8th
Hopefully Soupy keeps settling and Skinner calms down and gets some sleep. Holland wanted to be top 5, only his goalie bet is holding him back, at the moment
Oklahoma vs Iowa State 2019
42-41
Iowa State failed n a two point conversion to get the win on the final play fo the game, capping off a 21 point attempted comeback.
This is the last time Jalen Hurts and Brock Purdy met.
Highlights:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3IGc31iExgE
Tyler you sneaky little Devil… Picked Vic Ferrari’s pocket.
Just took a look at the Devil’s lines on Daily Faceoff.
On the top pairing, LHS. they have some guy named Jonas Siegenthaler.
Never heard of him? Nope. Neither have I.
Where did they get him?
Traded Washington for a conditional 3rd rounder on April 2021.
EW percentile: 1-year. 77-79-69
Puck IQ: 3rd in CTOI% vs elites. 54% DFF
NST: 2nd in 5v5 toi/60. 17:07; 2:54 on the PK; 20:55 total (3rd on team).
6’2″ 218. left shot.
25-year-old d. playing on your top pairing. acquired for a conditional 3rd.
$1.15m cap then signed at $3.4m for the following 5 years.
Dawson Sprigings and Sakic would be proud of that type of tidy business.
I’ve been wanting to see the Oilers make this type of trade since Sather left town.
Shesterkin missed an EN goal tonight by about 8 inches.
Shame Johnny Hockey and the Jackets couldn’t pull it out.
Updated Western Conference standings by wins +/-
WPG +15
DAL +15
SEA +13
VEG +12
MIN +9
EDM +9
LAK +9
COL +8
—–
CGY +7
NSH +4
STL +2
VAN -7
SJS -9
ARI -12
CHI -13
ANA -16
Relevant games tomorrow (degree of difficulty goes up for West playoff contenders):
MIN at TBL
VEG at NJD
LAK at PHI
BUF at STL
WPG at NSH
WSH at COL
Gaudreau continues his streak of poor plays in OT at the Saddeldome leading to loses…..
Took a pretty long shift there, especially after wasting some gas trying to beat Andersson to a loose puck at the start of the shift. I think the Jackets were calling for a trip on Johnny but it looked like he just fell down, imo. Was probably a bit tired. Laine was slashed on the hand on his partial breakaway right before the winning goal was scored and the refs missed it.
A Phlegm loss would be so tasty.
Poor Olivier. Brave man. Why would you accept that though?
Maybe he thought his nose looked too straight?
Watching the Johnny Hockey boo-fest tonight.
Gaudreau got a penalty shot 5 minutes in. (You can’t make this stuff up). But of course, he missed.
Been keeping an eye on Gavrikov. He looked bad on the Kadri goal. And now he just iced the puck unnecessarily. Small sample size, but he has not impressed.
2-0 for the bad guys as CBJ are not doing us any favours. I know they have a few injuries, but man, they look like an AHL team.
And by the way, Flames host Ryan Leslie is so boring compared to our man Gene.
Watching that game, too. Gavrikov hasn’t impressed me either. Is he even an upgrade on Kulak or Broberg? Small sample size, but early impression is not overwhelming.
Is he even an upgrade on Vinny Ridge? (although he plays the wrong side)
P.S. CBJ scores 2 quick PP goals, both assisted by Gaudreau. 2-2
I’m not watching but the price being discussed is what doesn’t impress me. I think Holland needs to wait until the bitter end to pull the trigger on some depth, but not pay these crazy prices. 1st and a 3rd for basically Kulak, way too much!
I think the prices will come down; there’s no way I would do the 1st and 3rd for Gavrikov. Let the Leafs pay that price if they want him.
This Blue Jacket team sucks.
see, it worked!
That turned quickly!
I’m not sure Maurice’s playing the right way, is the right way
The Jets are better, the Kittens worse
Glad we gave that one a swerve
I’m not sure more forwards unless it’s a RS C are really going to change the team much
My buddy who I mention that was a pretty good player in his day came out with another beauty when we were discussing team make up
He said he used to hate D that skated the puck up. Forwards having to slow up trying to get their timing and waiting. Most D aren’t Coffey or Niedermeyer
Hs also hated guys that rimmed the puck out so he could get lined up for a hit trying to collect the puck off the boards. Step out and make a pass!!
Coffey in his the Athletic piece said he was not it impressed how many D couldn’t make stick to stick passes 5-6 feet or something like that
They need a better balance back end. If it’s a guy like Gav or Ed then Bro or Kulak have to come out, new guy has to bring cover for Barrie or Bouch who aren’t strong at in zone D. If they can’t pass then again I do t see the big benefits
Agreed about pass rather than carry, but this also depends on the forwards you are passing to.
For instance last game against Nucks and game before Woodcroft put Nuge with Davey and Hyman. Nuge acts as defensive conscience and moves puck up to those guys quickly.
This is the issue when Drai plays with Mcdavid as both those guys are shooting the zone at first sign of possession. If there is any pressure on the d and no forward to help, it ends badly 50% of the time(this year).
Nurse and Ceci are not fabulous passers and they are the ones playing both with and against top competition. I think Bouch and Broberg are better complimentary players (to each other) but the solution is not necessarily to get another passing d, but to ensure there is a low forward who can pass well and support our d while moving it quickly when turned over.
This is the difference in the winning streak. Partly it is because having Kane back moves all personnel to a better spot in the lineup. This is also what having a full healthy lineup has provided. trade deadline should be to add strong depth in positions where one injury could sink this idea of everyone in their right spot.
Commented below: drai also prone to getting picked off and does need to tighten up his pass selection. This leads to higher than average going the wrong way from direction puck heading.
Agreed. He seems especially dangerous both ways when playing with Mcdavid. The little back passes are getting scouted and picked off with increasing frequency. Everyone knows those two are looking for each other when playing together. On the pp it works because extra space but 5v5 it’s not working as well as it once was.
I don’t think there’s any truth to this.
Draisaitl’s giveaway rates are lower this season with McDavid than without him.
He also had a little bit of a giveaway binge the first 4 games of the season. Since then his giveaway rates have been basically identical to last year (and last season his giveaway rate was the lowest it’s been since 16-17).
Heard for years about the Detroit model and them bringing up AHL players when they were ready to contribute.
Really a treat to watch it happen here in real time.
What a time to be alive.
ComeOn Johnny.
Kudos to Zack Hyman. NHL player of the week:
https://www.nhl.com/news/zach-hyman-steven-stamkos-trevor-zegras-named-3-stars-of-week/c-340317922
Hyman has really turned it on since Dec 1. He is 5th overall in NHL scoring since that time with 33 points in 24 games including 15 goals in that stretch. Of course 12 points in his last 5 games, helps with that. He is also tied with Connor and Leon with 16 points in 10 games in 2023.
Matthews has played two fewer games, but don’t look now, Hyman has the same number of goals and four more points.
I love that McDavid practiced shooting nonstop this summer (in his 16 greatest article old gm of ohl mentioned stopping by and McDavid out shooting on roller blades for what appeared hours saying, “my shots not good enough”) in part surely just to torch everyone for the snub last year.
Fuck-it, I’ll take every trophy.
I love absolutely everything about McD and feel privileged to watch him play so often. As an individual he is a wonderful role model. Yet I cannot get past his +/- (+2) which is 80th best in the NHL (tied with Devin Shore!). Draisaitl is +5.
For C comparison – Pavelski (+33); Bergeron (+21); Matthews (19); Mackinnon – on much fewer GP – (+17).
Greater hockey minds than mine might be able to explain this but, over a large sample size, I do not buy the limitations of +/-. To win Stanley there seems to be a need for things to tighten up D wise. JMHO.
He’s like Leeloo from 5th element
It seems everyone wants him to be more defensive. I am not sure that is the right way to use that immense yet unknown power
If they can’t think outside the box that’s already been thunk by the team that employs them, then yes he has to smarten up. He should have the highest +/- there is
He isn’t wired for it if he’s not doing it at this point. He’s good at faceoffs now so use him as the C, but I would find a guy to do the D zone work and let him be a nightmare for the attacking team as Gretzky was because he isn’t t so deep in the D zone
It would mean that trying to get in his way or obstructing to stop him from getting speed would be a lot harder. Talk about putting them off their O game, this is part of the innovation Slats did
Playing the Avs have him cover Makar up high. Try out skating Connor all game in a small space. Put O Reilly on his left wing to cover things coming back and watch out
I always back check plus minus numbers with give away take away numbers.
This year:
Drai is -17 g/t, +5
McDavid -3 g/t, +2
Matthew’s +3 g/t, +19
Marner +4 g/t, +6
Bergeron +15 g/t, +21
Last year
Drai -14 g/t, +20
McDavid +5 g/t, +28
Matthew’s +44 g/t, +20
Marner +9 g/t, +23
Bergeron +16 g/t, +26
Gives, at least me, a bit more perspective on stuff. Playing with drai leads to a lot more odd man rushes. Last year mcdrai either lime changing a bit fortunate to not get caught or whatever do appear to have likely inflated plus minus…but so does Matthew’s this year.
Last year Matthew’s definitely was doing some damage directly responsible for puck possession positives.
Bergeron definitely is a beast of a different make defensively.
I kimd of combine them and call it the “bergeron” for obvious reasons.
Would be interesting to see what the percentage of giveaways on those extra long shifts. To me this is the solution to many issues. Especially with Drai, coach needs to hammer on shorter shifts in every game state. It is purely selfish to choose a 2min shift and impacts their play negatively both that shift and beyond, but also impacts teammates who need to sit for longer..
I’d love that along with how many bad line changes just before goals.
Like how many HD chances just after those long shift ends or something.
Visually I catch it in a manner that seems far above average but I can’t factually say much as surely confirmation bias is clocking it harder than average.
I’m a drai fan but I swear I catch him coasting to bench after long shifts when puck is leaving offensive zone more than I think neccessary
Wooo go jackets!
Since entering the league his plus minus is: -1,27,20,3,-6,21,28,2. Seems pretty random to me and doesn’t really provide any useful information on his defensive ability.
To add to this:
McDavid’s 5v5 on ice numbers the last 3 years:
Goals
20-21 57.1%
21-22 59.4%
22-23 51.3%
Shots
20-21 55.2%
21-22 57.0%
22-23 53.1%
Scoring chances
20-21 55.6%
21-22 54.8%
22-23 56.3%
HD scoring chances
20-21 56.8%
21-22 57.9%
22-23 59.7%
PDO
20-21 1008
21-22 1008
22-23 993
His goal differential is way off. His shot% is down, but his scoring chance and HD scoring chance rates are up.
His PDO is the lowest since his rookie year (every other year at 1008 or better actually).
It does look like mostly/entirely luck.
Hasn’t been much talk of Matthews better than Mcdavid lately? Maybe we should start on Hyman better than Matthews and Marner! Gonna be interesting to see what the Matthews ask is on his next contract.
This year’s market is shaping up to be one of those where in the last hour of deadline day there are at least a couple really high quality forwards available for a song.
Definitely part of Holland’s mission.
If i am blowing a wad for a rw i want someone who can be here for 2 cup runs and is cheap.
Noone has mentioned trading for this guy that i know of (as far as main outlets reporting trade rumors) but a great target is taylor raddysh. He plays around 18 mins a night and is on pace for 22 goals and around 40 points, OK fancies on an awful team , good size, he is canadian, and he is less than 1 mil for this yr and next. his skating is not the best but he is effective despite and plays a power forward game. Perhaps JP, a lesser prospect, and a 3rd does it. PDO is less than 1.
He could play in the top 9 and be effective. He has played mostly with toews but a signifigant amount with kurashev as well and a lot of it against tough competition with some of the top competition including schiefele, kyrou, thomas, arviddson, danault,necas etc which shows he is not being fed soft starts.
Thought this was reasonable suggestion. Curious to know why two downvotes? Bigger guy, did pretty well in Junior. Briefly a McDavid team mate. Decent salary. JP, prospect and a 3rd does seem high. Perhaps that is the main issue?
As I said curious to know others thoughts on this.
Evolving Hockey likes him as a little above average. 59-66-56; 52-47-58 (3-year).
6th in CTOI against elites. DFF% 41.5 which matches his toi at 5v5.
Playing second line TOI at 5v5.
Points/60 in the tweener range. 1.17/1.7 (20 games only)/1.14
He’s playing on the first unit power play this season.
9 of his 21 points (45 gp) were from the PP this season. He probably wouldn’t get much PP time here.
He doesn’t kill penalties.
The numbers suggest a tweener who gets some PP on a bad team, but doesn’t PK and doesn’t produce much at 5v5.
He does have a Right hand shot though and he’s 6’3″
Seems alright.
453 of his 577 5×5 it looks like toews is his center and all toews relatives look better with raddysh.
45% ozone starts so shit eating. Getting heavy PP time this year though (3:33 min/g). 7 ES goals, 5 PP and he’s not getting much PP so that might deflate projected goals by large chunk. Basically never pk. Which isn’t ideal.
Kind of deal have to rely on proscouts to wager much on whether he’s worth it though. Slow boots and not pk doesn’t do a whole lot for bottom 6 target for me unless its a part of larger scheme for freed up cap space.
I thumbs up for you there. I truly think it is a game of finding value primarily in low contract targets this year.
Considering the topic of the blog today, I thought I’d summarize Chaulk’s verbal on Oilers Now from today:
1) They do keep TOI stats, their video guy does it. Its not perfect but its in the ballpark. The “kids” or “young prospects” are earning more minutes – in the 17-19 minute range. There has been some tough love this year but the truth is the kids are playing very well. It hasn’t happened overnight, its taken 35 games.
2) One game, Philp was close to 20 minutes and was out there for the 6 on 5 draw an won it. He was over 50% and earlier in the year he was under 40%. He’s understanding what it means to be a pro. He’s killing penalties.
3) All the kids have a special teams role, at times they get on both. They are playing better. They are scoring.
4) Philp has played mostly center for 10-15 games now. We were moving him around earlier trying to get him going. Conversation with Noah and he said “I would love to just have a shot and play center” – his minutes have increased in that role.
5) Bourgault: High level skill but there isn’t the supporting scoring around him which keeps the points down. He’s learning to play against men. It looks like he’s going to score 20 goals. That’s a very good first season. Its not going to happen right away. He’s playing all special teams, lots of minutes, all situations. He handles some well and some he’d like to have back.
6) Lavoie: Agreed he’s coming on. Chaulk talked about his personal investment in Lavoie from his role as an assistant and lots of time working 1 on 1 with Lavoie. He’s done his part. He had a tough start with injury and struggle. Since he’s come back he’s been excellent. He wasn’t great on Friday night, a little bit too much east/west. Sat morning he looked me right in the eye and told me he wasn’t going down the lineup. He came out and scored 2 minutes in with a power move – taking the puck to the net.
7) Tulio – has he surprised with is points? Yes, he’s been a pleasant surprise. At the beginning, he was very light, got pushed off the puck, was help tot he outside – saw some glimpses of skill. Some hard conversations. He looked me in the eye and didn’t understand why he wasn’t playing much. He realized there were lots of young skilled guys fighting for important minutes. He’s been a pleasant surprise. He plays hard. He competes. Last two goals were 6 inches from the paint. He’s learning how to mix that in to his game. He can still score from distance and make plays.
8) Deharnais and how important he was – Oh, we miss him but we don’t want to see him. We are very happy for him. He’s got a great stick. Biggest thing is that he’s passionate and he’s consistent on defending. He wants to defend, he wants to block shot but he’s got the savyness to make the middle play. Sneaky good at offensive blue line – ability to get pucks through. Can he fight? Oh ya, he’s tough.
9) Niemo – scored both goals on Friday game but he’s not known for generating offence – did it with all new gear (as his gear got lost). Working on his puck skills, his tape to tape passing. Making plays but knowing when to get it up and out off the glass, etc.
Thanks for this.
Condors have traded Engras (who is on an AHL contract and played most of the year on the ECHL) – received Garrett Van Wyhe and assigned him to the E.
Really appreciate the transcripts of things like this that I’m probably not going to listen to otherwise.
It is interesting to watch the Oilers’ fancies as their record improves.
Their biggest changes over the last couple of months, as far as I can tell, are improved PDO (both SV% and SH% are up significantly) and PK.
The shot metrics, e.g., CF, are still middle of the pack (as they have been all season).
I am inclined to think the Oilers current streak is somewhat sustainable. The 5v5 goaltending is a bit hot, but the Oilers are a great HDCF team (makes sense with Drai + McD), so the SH% is likely sustainable.
I am also curious about what others think about the current streak. Are the Oilers playing much differently, or are the goalies just playing more consistently? I am inclined to say both because I am a coward.
I am do not have time to post all the numbers but you can find them here:
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/teamtable.php
I think this is Jay Woodcroft’s game plan all along. Use your skill, score high skill goals and visualize high end plays. Don’t settle for exterior shots.
It gets them in trouble sometimes with giveaways and overpassing but they seem to have dialled in the balance now. They overpassed a bit in Vancouver but also some of those passes resulted in goals (thinking about Drai’s goal specifixally)
Meet Jay Woodcroft – “High Danger” is his middle name.
To me a rising tide floats all boats. Talent will lead to a higher than average SH%, that is sustainable for several players. I think the rest of the team is regressing – they were cold
Back to boats, with the team play being so much more in sync, everything gets better. The forwards are supporting the breakout better, the HDCSA goes down, SV% goes up
Zone coverage is better with players doing their jobs and making better reads, same thing. Offense improves because the puck is going the other way more and being held because of better O zone puck support
I was complaining about how poor they were at actually attacking the net and creating HDSC outside of the one man wrecking ball. I am glad to see the quality of their attack is way better, players are looking for screens tips and shot passes when they pass back to the point
They are making way more low high slot plays with players actually there in scoring positions
More cross seam plays. Things that get goalies moving and increase odds significantly
The last thing out is unnecessary high risk plays – puck and game management. Leon is about 75% of this, so let’s hope he practices a little more patience. Because that’s playoff style hockey – reduce mistakes and be hard to score on
Our CF% is still middle of the pack, but that’s going to take a while to catch up. Our 5v5 CF% since Jan 1 has been about 5% higher than the season leading up to Dec 31.
10 games is a small sample and our competition has been easier, but it seems that there has been a major bump in shot attempts and possession.
As Oddspell says, there has actually been a pretty big change.
Last 20 games vs. first 28 (all situations numbers):
Shots
First 28 32.0-33-6 49.0% 22nd
Last 20 33.7-30.0 52.9% 6th
Scoring chances
First 28 31.7-30.4 51.0% 14th
Last 20 32.4-27.8 53.8% 6th
HD scoring chances
First 28 13.7-12.5 52.2% 12th
Last 20 15.2-10.7 58.6% 1st
Goals
First 28 3.64-3.46 51.3% 14th
Last 20 3.77-2.88 56.7% 6th
SH%
First 28 11.4%
Last 20 11.2%
SV%
First 28 .896
Last 20 .904
PDO
First 28 1010
Last 20 1016
PP GF-GA
First 28 12.76-0.82
Last 20 12.63-0.57
PK GF-GA
First 28 1.54-11.97
Last 20 1.08-6.49
5v5 shows very similar improvements as the overall numbers.
So the improvements have been:
-goaltending
-PK
-5v5 defense
-5v5 offsense
I would agree with the mostly sustainable conclusion.
Awesome. Thanks.
Thanks! I was using slightly different splits, and the numbers were less stark. But overall, things are looking good!
Woody + CMD + Drai = HDSC machine.
Speaking of top-6 RW, who has time for Vladimir Tarasenko at 50% retained?
This would be a great option. The Tarasenk-show might be the most game-breaking RW available, and the cost would be digestible.
I’d be a fan but what cost as wouldn’t it be also adding player back to make it work?
Even Tarasenko 50% for puj or foegle is adding 750k or 1 mil cap and our deadline space presently is 300k…not including fact yam eventually back.
So your in 20 man roster territory which I pray they don’t do.
So
7.5 million @ 50% retained (whatever 35% of 2.75 mil real dollars is actual salary this year)
Lileky need 3rd party to take another half of that – for 3rd rounder?
Deal looks like?
Tarasenko 50% retained
For
2023 1st, 2023 2nd, foegle
3rd party tarasenko 25%
For
2023 3rd
Cap hit to oilers 1.75
Gain of 1 million in cap space
Send Hamblin down replace with yam 300k ish over still
So 22 man roster.
It can work but it would take a lot if I’m looking at this right running through it here…and I don’t know if that’s enough for tarasenko sending foegle back just guessing roughly what might work.
He’s currently missed 10 games due to hand injury as well….so buyer beware depending.
I’m not sure if it’s injury, decline, or something else like playing on a bad line.
The numbers for Taresenko don’t look great this year.
PuckIQ has him playing well down the depth chart and getting hammered on DFF% –
38% DFF vs elites
Evolving Hockey has him 29-54-5 this year.
Last year was 67-87-3.
That highlights a substantial drop in his underlying offensive numbers.
Taresenko is not a 2-way player. I guess if he still has that shot, he might be an option on the wing to pot goals.
He’s had a lot of injuries over the years. I would wonder about that side of things.
At 7.5 I’ll take the Ryan O’Reilly ‘No fun for you tonight Misters MacKinnon and Makar’ show please
I’d love Tarasenko, don’t care about the numbers. You put him beside 29 for a playoff drive and the motivation and thrill to play with either one of the best 2 players in the league.. He can turn that into a overpay in the summer from someone then the Oilers can look internally to address RW next season with in house developing options.
I want Tarasenko or Kane, elite talents paired with the best 2 players in the league, must watch hockey.
Just give it a go, for one drive.
https://mobile.twitter.com/EdmontonOilers/status/1617612480003571712
Put a A on his jersey and park him beside the tenders for the next decade.
After listening to that presser, I like him even more! He’s not a spring chicken and knows the opportunity that he’s being given … says he’s “not going to waste it”. Love it.
With the addition of Vincent, Kostin and Kane is huge, watching L.A and Calgary targeting Leon with no response last month was embarrassing. We are a totally different team with the addition of these three 215 pounders that are team first players has been a godsend. If we can have either Campbell or Skinner peaking for the Playoffs will result in a repeat of 2006 with the exception of a different outcome in game 7.
I imagine Nurse can pick his spots again having a posse and be Mean Darnell again as well
Such a difference since that LA game, Kostin has everyone on the team buying into eachother. It’s amazing.
If they continue to play as group with the buy in they have, they’re going to be near impossible to beat over 7.
Who knew some cheap Elmers glue would bond this team. Watch Tampa, Dallas and Boston if one of their players gets thumped the rest of the team is like a pack of Wolves. We need one more nasty guy up front L.A-Vegas-Dallas-Calgary are going to target Leon and Connor everyone knows that. If Yamo had hands it would be a different story but he doesn’t. Leon needs some help to straighten out the weasels targeting him.
Rishaug had an interview with Stu Skinner on his podcast (GYB) and Stu talked about how crazy it is that 2-years ago they were roommates in Wichita while playing in the ECHL and they used to play Call of Duty and think how far away the NHL was……
Who was his roommate in Wichita?
I think Desharnais is the alluded to team mate.
Thank you
It’s sure nice to see individuals make it through the system. I wonder what the percentage of players make it to the NHL as a regular everyday player came through the ECHL. 3%-5%.
The fact there is a thumbs down to this post shows you something:
Please no one care about thumbs up or down. Don’t take it personal.
I’m shooting for the moon and trying to land a RW that makes 97 and 29 giddy.
Then I’m finding a nice veteran defender to add in with some nasty. If the Panthers pull the pin, maybe try and grab a Gudas.
The need is left D, not right. Unless Barrie or Ceci is headed out.
ceci out gudas in would be a nice swap. gudas is much nastier than ceci and arguably more effective.
Definitely not aiming for this, I’m bringing Gudas in for a playoff run then most likely cutting bait.
Given Ceci faces tough comp and Gudas has been sheltered (20% TOI vs. elites and 44% against grits), I’m not sure this is arguable, is it?
Ceci hasn’t been as solid or consistent as last season but he’s still play hard-ass minutes and I don’t think an aging 3rd pairing d-man would be a good swap.
I think in deep playoff runs the need for D is there regardless of hand, a Gudas rental wouldn’t be a negative on the group.
Seeing lots of chatter on Gavrikov, personally I have seen the recent value of waiting until closer to the deadline. If we add him who goes to the press box (or leaves in same trade)?
I would love to rent this player for the rest of this season and the playoffs but the acquisition cost will be just too high. It seems the Jackets are being smart (unlike, say, the Canucks with Horvat) and allowing him to talk contract terms with potential acquirers.
From accounts the Jackets are looking for something like a 1st and a 3rd (similar to Chiarot and Savard) and they will probably get that from a team that will re-sign him.
I would rent him but I have zero interest in re-signing him. MAYBE if Kulak was moved out but, at the same time, he’ll want term and, with Broberg likely to solidify himself as 2LD in the next 2-18 months, that doesn’t work. I had figured something like the Adam Larsson contract and now its been confirmed that he’s looking for $5MM plus.
No thank you – it just doesn’t work for the Oilers.
The Lightning traded for McDonagh even though they had Sergachev. Nurse, Gavirkov, and Broberg would be a contending quality LD. And like Sergachev played on the right side a lot because of McDonagh, so can Broberg.
I don’t think Gavrikov is affordable going forward in the Oilers’ cap structure.
Nostradamus over here…… seems our host listened when the head coach kept throwing Vinny in the conversation every time the young d-men (Broberg, Nimeo, Samorukov) were mentioned.
This kid playing nightly in the KHL as an 18 year old, and getting substantial/real minutes is a story all in itself.
I wonder what the plans are for signing this kid and Beryozkin (and what these two kids are planning as far as intent to come to North America).
Good to see Janmark back at practice today (rushing with his recent line mates of Nuge and Kostin).
Kane not at practice due to personal reasons (which is bankruptcy court appearances this week).
I found it interesting to see Karlsson who has 15 Goals is just 2 off of the Oilers D teamwise which sits at 17.
Are you saying another offensive D-man… at a huge cap hit… for a long time… is what ails the Oil?
I do agree that the Oilers could use another D who can drive offense. You get zero offense from the likes of Ceci, Broberg, or Kulak.
Upgrading Kulak to Gostisbehere for the playoffs would be a huge boost to the Oilers attack, and won’t cost a 1st rounder.
Gostisbehere is posting 1.02 P/60 at 5v5. Broberg is at 0.92 and Kulak 0.80… the delta isn’t as big as you seem to think.
Two of those players are playing 3rd pair competition while the other is their club’s top defender against the other team’s elite players.
Ghost Bear is much better than the two Oilers at this point, and he would perform much better than them in a 2nd pairing role.
As far as stats go, The Ghost Bear has scored (32!) goals since the beginning of the 2021 season. That’s over just 167 games, so roughly 15.5 goals / 82-games
Timely goals from defensemen who can shoot the puck can be a difference-maker in a series.
16 even strength goals from the Ghost since last season. [!]
Makar has 19, then Dahlin has 17, then there’s the Ghost in 3rd.
I swear Gostisbehere is the Rodney Dangerfield of NHL defensemen.
Last 3 seasons (2 full seasons plus this one), 2nd in the NHL in 5 on 5 goals for d-men…… Darnell Nurse (one goal behind Makar).
Nurse is tied for first if you just go by the two seasons before this one.
Perhaps Darnell Nuge is the Rodney Dangerfield of NHL d-men????
How is Broberg not driving offense? Broberg and Bouchard aredriving outscoring in their minutes. Before Broberg, Bouchard’s pair was leaking goals badly.
I like Broberg. Him and Bouchard make for a tidy outscoring 3rd pair. Broberg has just 4 assists in 22 games though – I don’t see him driving offense these playoffs.
Its Kulak I specifically want to improve
In the 10 games in January, the Oilers are scoring at a rate 5.66 G/60 with Bouch/Broberg on the ice (95 minutes) and 2.77 G/60 with them off the ice (303 minutes)
Sustainable?
I would think not (but would one that its not driven by McDavid – its similar with Bro/Bouch on and McDavid off) but was just responding to the conversation about those two “driving offence”.
I went in thinking that a low GA/60 was driving their goal share but, well, that GF/60 number is what it is….
I’m going to presume that’s materially driven by QoC.
2 LHD is the spot if doing something major on backend
Flames responded with a huge win against the Bolt’s probably there best game of the year. Will there be a let down It would be delightful if Johnny has a monster game ending with a W all this happening while they’re are booing him.
I hope Gaudreau has a monster game and CBJ shuts out the Flames, so Sutter post game can pull the “what numbers are they?” when asked about his players performance.
If we are looking for a scoring RW – we need to see Lavoie on a skilled line in the NHL this year
Has he shown enough down there two way to merit?
Like he’s scoring at fairly pedestrian levels does his game have more to it?
I dont know just asking.
The only developmental choice for Lavoie is to leave him right where he is and see if he can build and carry his current play into the summer. Bringing him up and slotting him in a scoring role on a team looking to make a serious push is.. Bad, very very bad.
Can’t see it happening at all.
Don’t get me wrong, his recent stretch has likely saved his career as a “real prospect” for this org but his current 12 game stretch has been the first time in his pro career that he hasn’t disappeared for 6 weeks plus after a 6-8 game heater.
I’ve been wrong many times but I don’t see any of the forward kids in the AHL impacting the NHL lineup this season – no Lavoie, Bourgault or Philp.
Such a solid start for Skinner Saturday, and with Campbell’s turnaround I am wondering who is number 1 and who is number 2? Are they going to split the remaining games 50/50 or do you keep the net til you lose. This team is full of delicious dilemmas.
Yeah, a nice problem to have. I’ll admit I was ready to say Campbell had re-established himself as the starter and then Skinner put up a big statement on Saturday.
Probably a good sign on the goaltending front that we even have to ask if our *NHL All-Star* guy is the backup or not.
LT almost sorta got bullish on the Oilers in his Athletic article. Managed to twist the pretzel and say the Goal Share explosion can’t be maintained but holy smokes look at the tankathon in our schedule ahead.
Thought experiment – what if the outperform is the normal? Why can’t McLeon and the HymaNuges keep kicking out the jams against sad sack teams? With a little injury luck why can’t McLeodoway grab a few more G’s? Why of all things can’t the ever quickly two steppin BouchBerg add a spot or two? Is it likely the Record Setting PP regresses downward against the Dregs in sell-off mode? Didn’t even chat about Kaneamoto joining the festivities or the idea that Foegelarvi manages something every now and though.
Oh I disagree vehemently that there will be regression. I’d wager we’ll see way more 7-2 games than we’re going to see 2-1 from here on out.
I betcha they finish the season right at 350 goals for and we’ll be looking at >85 in differential.
Slowly but surely the Vision is rounding into form. Still not there yet but we’re getting damn close to the Best Show in Hockey territory now.
Interesting times for sure. We all know the Tampa model has been to load up, damn the future. They’ve paid outrageous prices for the likes of Blake Coleman, Barclay Goodrow and Brandel Hagel. They have won two Stanley Cups and of course is that the narrative is that those were integral pieces. But Florida thought their window was NOW and paid crazy prices for guys like Ben Chiarot and now are in a really bad spot.
Carolina and Colorado I’d say have been a little more conservative waiting for strategic hockey trades like the acquistions of Toews and Burns. I think Carolina specifically still has a great group of prospects but detractors would suggest they need a game breaker.
So now to the Oilers. I think we’re close to a spot where bringing anyone in is going to take someone out of a spot that they are pretty well equipped to handle. Bringing in Chychryn puts Broberg or Kulak on the bench. Bringing in Horvat relegates McLeod to 4th line duties and takes Jesse or Ryan out of the lineup. And of course the assets out including cap space will be substantial.
So what do you want to do? Do you cash in 1sts and Bourgault and tie up all the cap space for a huge move? Do you add around the edges with seconds/thirds and B prospects? Or do you dance with the ones who brought you and only bring in depth to cover for injury hoping that Broberg, Holloway and McLeod will gain valuable experience along the way?
Depends on the market. Last year the stars aligned to bring Evander. Don’t see that in the cards this year, especially with LTIR. I would go depth, a right handed center who can win faceoffs would be nice. On D, need more data points on our guys and what’s available, wait to the TDL and make a decision on how big a move to make.
Do not break the bank like you suggested bring in a face-off man that is good defensively who is underperforming for 1 reason or another in other words someone that needs a fresh start. Also if J.P is not coming back next year is it not best to trade him before the deadline.
A serious cup contender doesn’t bat an eye at having McLeod on the 4th line or Broberg on the 3rd pair, or having guys like Kulak, JP or Ryan in and out of the lineup.
There isn’t the cap space to have guys like Kulak and JP in & out of the lineup due to acquisitions. They’d have to be part of the deal.
I’m for paying if it isn’t ridiculous and bonus if it clears up some cap next season to tweak better (foegle/kulak).
You don’t have to trade those guys they are NHL players but id rather have 5.5 million free to upgrade one of their spots (top 6 forward or 3-4 dman) than keep both.
Id be in heavy on kuzmenko. Been watching Canucks games and he just seems like he might fit so well in that top 6 RW hole we have – if we want to run drai as center more.
I’d add:
I’m baffled at this stood up for prom type reaction to kuzmenko.
So what if he chose Vancouver. We were in the shortlist.
It appears like he made a decent call as he’s established value playing there. It probably didn’t hurt there’s also Russian born players on roster who he probably knows and it’s a nice city.
He may sign somewhere else if you trade for him but he is one of best available options for upgrading RW next off-season and it can’t hurt to have a period before market opens to sign him if he is a good fit. Most importantly it definitely is a bonus to see if one of beat ufa options does fit before having to sign them.
I’ll not bother bringing him up again.
I think you make very good points and your questions are sound.
I believe it all comes down to risk. Are the Oilers willing to risk the insane costs associated with first, acquiring the asset, the risk to the cap, and the risk to internal player development?
So far, Holland’s old school approach seems to suggest that they’re not.
The Bolts weigh the risks and are so confident in their system and coaching that they don’t mind the risk. Other teams, not so much. Florida is an excellent example of a team getting burned. I would also include Toronto in that mix, for a few years running I might add.
Maybe it’s the Bolts pro scouts that are the difference makers? They seem to pick out the ‘diamonds in the rough’ and these players know their roles and aren’t affected by the fact that they were acquired for a 1st rounder and some of the pressure that goes along with that in some markets.
Personally I think that most of the GMs aren’t fully cognizant of the fact that the cap can be a tool that can work for them long term so long as they have the discipline to set firm budgets on players (see Carolina vs Dougie Hamilton), jettison assets when they’re not working out (see Edmonton), making the mistake of over-valuing certain player assets (see half the league). Or perhaps they are aware but have internal pressure from ownership to spend like drunken sailers. I wish I knew.
Long story short, I think that if the Oil go on a good run over the next little while then it behooves Holland to go balls deep and give it a shot. The west can be for the taking. I just hope we don’t see him waste a 1st for Edmondson type of scenario.
That’s the question for sure. Good post.
I agree the roster holes don’t look so glaring at this stage, though it was only a week or two ago folks were talking about potentially missing the playoffs.
My personal opinion on the best course is somewhere in between ‘add depth’ and ‘cash in 1sts and Bourgault’.
I would look for the best deals you can get when spending this years 1st, 2nd, 3rd. But without moving any picks from future drafts, or any of the significant prospects like Bourgault.
If those draft picks can get you a forward like Larkin, ROR, Tarasenko, Horvat, Bertuzzi, Kuzmenko, Domi and a defenseman like Gost, Gavrikov, Orlov (or Mayfield, Jensen, Maatta, Wallman), I think that really moves the needle. The 1st could also be used for a player with some term left. Either way though, I would like to see Holland spend more this season than he has in prior years as Oilers GM.
————–
An aside about Colorado as well – they did build slowly over years, but they spent a tremendous amount in the year leading up to their Cup win.
-1st, Timmins (former 2nd #32OV), 3rd for Kuemper
-2nd and Barron (former 1st) for Lehkonen
-2nd and Helleson (former 2nd) for Manson
-4th for MacDermid
-5th for Cogliano
-Jost for Sturm
-They did get a 2nd and Maltsev for Graves to offset somewhat
Not even including Jost, in one calendar year they they sent out:
2 x 1sts
4 x 2nds
1 x 3rd
1 x 4th
1 x 5th
Yeah credit to Sakic to hit the all-in button at right point last year.
I think too many of teams that fail aren’t close to “1 or 2 pieces” tweak from being upper elite when they sell farms.
We could use upgrade or adjustment here and here. These players fit said profiles what value do we believe they add and what cost would we pay?
Not
“Whats out there lets get something!”
The answer should never be nick foligno for a 1st.
In the gospel according to kenny:
“You got to know when to hold em”
Oilers
1 top 6 RW
2. Adjustment to D corps but no chance in season barrie is part of equation this year (or you would be seeing bouchard get more at bats to have confidence he can run pp) so LHD it is….and only spot I see is kulak’s so he’s going other way in deal which adds cost likely.
3. Maybe a center who can pk, great on draws and ideally also right handed.
Domi and Toews from Chicago for whatever it takes!
IMO this is too rigid and unnecessarily limits the available options.
Any of the forwards I listed would significantly add to the Oilers forward group. If it’s a RW great. If not, you still have Drai, Hyman, Yamamoto as easy RW options, and you still improved your forward group. Similar for the D.
Fair enough but If I’m paying in a good draft year I’m okay being rigid and I wouldn’t say I’m being more rigid than
– no picks past this year
– no chance bourgault included
– only use 1st if target has term left
I’m not sure what that leaves and most you listed aren’t coming for sack of overripe magic beans without 1st or 2024 picks (the 2 2nd kind of deal) included.
That seems much harder needles to thread
I said the 1st could also be used for a player with term, not that it couldn’t be used for a rental.
I’m simply suggesting that Holland should go shopping for relative deals at the deadline with this years 1st, 2nd, 3rd round picks.
See if there are players available for those picks who would move the needle and help the team this spring. I listed a bunch of possibilities.
Thanks for clarifying. Sorry to misread it.
Looks like the Oilers are in a position to be the complete opposite to Tampa. They might not need to pay outrageous prices to load up. They’re already loaded up and their rookie crop is pushing for NHL. Their youth is making a stand. Which can only be good,considering their cap space.
The kids are alright. They are becoming a Godsend to this organization. I don’t believe they really need to go after another LHD at the deadline or before. Because of the play of (Broberg,Desharnais & Niemelianen) I also still throw Bouchard in that group. Holloway is another. But I can’t wait to see Noah Philp, he just looks like he will be another that will fit perfectly alongside Derek Ryan, who has to be the ideal mentor. It’s nice to see Hamblin called up. But the team might be better served with the RHC/RW Philp at this time.
The fact that we have rookies that are contributing is great but also a reason not to be so quick to deal draft picks. A team needs to have a constant pipeline. Trading draft picks because they won’t contribute right away is a fool’s game.
As is the Oilers have a good young players but their system as a whole is bottom third in the NHL.
I count five players that have proven to be pushing their way onto the NHL roster and we may see more from that development system you claim to be bottom third in the league. But yeah, you are correct, they probably won’t be too quick to deal draft picks because of the success they are having developing players. Simply put, they can deal with everything internally.
The Oilers need a left shot D for insurance in case of a medium term injury to DarnellNurse.
All critical paths should at least have some reasonable cover.
Gavrikov, Broberg, and Kulak would be good enough to survive missing Nurse for a period of time
Teams biggest need at trade deadline is RW. This doesn’t get enough chatter.
All of Jesse, Moto and Kostin are 3RW.
Where is the 1 and 2 RW?
The D seems to be falling into place and depth is needed for the playoffs, but greatest need is RW.
Convince me otherwise. I’m willing to listen. Thanks.
Technically Hyman is a RW but I certainly see what you’re saying.
I definitely have time for an argument that RW is the bigger need. Here’s my devil’s advocate argument to still prioritize the defence:
We gave up 9 goals in game 1 to Calgary and 8 in game 1 to Colorado. We averaged over 5 goals against per game in the Colorado series. We’ve swapped out the goalies and added 2 rookies to the blueline from last year’s playoffs.
McDavid and Draisaitl went insane supernova in the playoffs last year and it still wasn’t enough offence to outpace the boatload of goals we were shipping. You can’t bank on winning playoff games 6-5 and I don’t think enough has been done to stop the leaking.
I prefer thinking of it as 1 missing top six forward. Hyman can play either wing, Drai can play C, LW, RW. Nuge can do C, LW.
As long as McDavid, Drai, Nuge, Kane and Hyman are all healthy, you can shuffle those deck chairs to accommodate any incoming forward position.
And to expand your idea, in addition to Puljujarvi, Yamamoto and Kostin; McLeod, Foegele, Ryan, and Janmark could also fit in that bucket. The only one I could see making the jump to full time top six is Holloway. But I don’t see that happening this year.
I had a notion the other day that I’d like to share. It’s probably just a nutty idea. But it could also be a stroke of genius.
So here it is.
I think the 11/7 alinement has been very innovative. However to take it further, it might be fun for that seventh defenseman to also be capable of being the twelfth forward as well to supplement his ice time.
Especially with the emerging Vinny Desharnais moving up the depth chart and possibly getting more ice time In more of a defensive role. Maybe Tyson Barrie could fill that new 7th defenseman/12th forward role.I don’t know if he or the coaches would consider it , it’s my nutty notion. However it could also be a new wrinkle that might be something to consider.
Not nutty at all.
Colorado has been employing this strategy for quite a while.
They have two players, Kurtis MacDermid and Jacob MacDonald who often dress as the 7th D but are used as forwards.
You will note that even Cap Friendly lists them both that way.
https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/avalanche
I love that. I’ve thought forever switch hitter who can play bottom 6 winger and defense is one of the most obvious area that should be exploited for competitive advantage
Might be some interesting players available at the deadline, parity makes a whole bunch of teams on the fence.
I keep trying to figure out what match there might be with Philly for a deadline deal haven’t quite settled on anything. That team is a mess contract wise. Like locked but terrible.
Would love konency but doubt he’s gettable
Oilers play 2 games before the All-Star break you would think that Skinner and Campbell will each get a game. With Skinner going to the All-Star game will this affect Woody decision making on the Wednesday and Saturday games Starter?
Just curious LT if someone like Walman is answer what’s guess of package required to get?
Also rosterwise what’s your defensive depth chart like?
I can’t get headcaround adding a LHD without subtracting one. As of right now I see niemo/des as solid/ideal young 7/8 depth.
Desharnais is not the #4RD. He is already above that. It might not be fully reflected in TOI yet for other reasons at the moment, because the transition is in an emergent state.
If Holland could keep only two of the current right hand D, Bouchard and Desharnais are already #1 and #2, and I am not quite sure of the order.
He has very much been 4RD by every metric.
He has played 12.9% of hit TOI vs. elites and over 50% against gritensity – that’s more sheltered than the likes of Broberg.
In the last 6 games his 5 on 5 TOI/G is last among d-men by 2 and a half minutes and his overall TOI/G last by 2:45.
He is very much being spotted in at a 4RD/7D to this point.
Thanks for not making me look that up!
Bouchard >>> Desharnais, obviously but Desharnais has to be in the lineup to keep Barrie off of the PK
The one place I will give Holland full due (and big shout out to Keith Gretzky as well), is that the farm system is actually doing what it’s meant to do, foster and develop prospects on a year in and year out basis.
As we’re all aware, this team has had serious troubles in this department in the past. So it’s a welcome change.
Not everyone makes it of course, but the fact that there is competition from within is very encouraging.
Agreed. I wonder what they think of Chaulk and his long term plan with the org.
Chaulk took alot of heat in the first half of the year, including from me, with respect to his deployment of the “real prospects” but I need to acknowledge that he has given them more rope, put them in more prominent roles, etc., in the last month or so.
Tulio, Savoie and Lavoie have all had very good months compared to their first half of the season – Philp as well.
I wonder if the deployment of the raw rookies in the first half was actually a solid developmental technique – its. tough jump from the CHL/NCAA/CIAU to the AHL???
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On that same note, I think many of us criticized Holland/Woody for Holloway’s deployment in the first half of the season – thinking he needed more NHL ice or to be sent to the AHL.
He’s coming now and I wonder if “learning the NHL game” in a sheltered/protected role with the odd bump up was/is actually beneficial and the “right move”?
A nod here to Chia. Many of the reforms came in under his watch (aka Keith Gretzky and ManWood) and were kept in place by Holland. It may have been by fluke and circumstance but this was one area of good work under his watch.
Nelson was producing players year in and year out from non-first round picks but the dysfunction at the NHL level failed to take advantage.
Petry, Schultz, Klefbom, rehabilitated Chorney to a marginal career. Davidson, Marincin, Hunt,
Hartikainen, Lander, Paajarvi, Arcobello, Vandervelde, rehabilitated McDonald, Omark, Pitlick
Dubnyk
Nelson didn’t get many of the 1st round picks that Bakersfield is getting.
Vinnie D is a great “feel good” story. How can you not cheer for this big guy?
Absolutely! He breaks his nose on his first shift and waits to until the first intermission to have it set? Seriously? Add that to the legends of Lee Fogolin, Jaroslav Pouzar and Mike Grier from the good old days.
https://twitter.com/JasonGregor/status/1616527291525529600?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
James Hamblin’s mother passed away from cancer in 2017. I am so rooting for this kid. Talk about battling thru adversity
I didn’t think he looked out of place at all for his earlier call-up. If anything, he seemed a little unlucky to have not posted some crooked numbers.