This is the Oilers blue, by pairing, since December 15 at five-on-five. There are worries and there are opportunities, and 32 games to figure it all out.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers are about to start a major makeover at right wing
- New DNB: How Oilers’ Stuart Skinner learned to be a pro — and an NHL All-Star
- Lowetide: Is Edmonton Oilers coach Jay Woodcroft saving another season?
- DNB: Why Ryan Nugent-Hopkins matters more to the Oilers now than ever before
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers ride high-flying offence to strong January finish
- DNB: Are the Oilers actually good again or are they simply benefitting from an easy schedule?
- Lowetide: Are the Oilers getting enough out of their AHL prospect pipeline?
- DNB: Oilers give a third-string university goalie the experience of his lifetime
- Lowetide: Oilers rookies Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway arriving right on time
- DNB: Oilers trade target: Scouting Blue Jackets defenceman Vladislav Gavrikov
- Lowetide: 3 trades that could help the Oilers this season and beyond
- New DNB: Oilers’ Zach Hyman subscriber Q&A
- Lowetide: The 5 biggest reasons for Edmonton Oilers’ recent turnaround
- DNB: What I’m hearing on Oilers’ trade deadline plans
- Lowetide: Is Oilers’ Vincent Desharnais an NHL defenceman?
- DNB: Oilers must act at the trade deadline
- Lowetide: Oilers midseason review of 2022-23 reasonable expectations
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022
SINCE DECEMBER 15 (VIA NATURAL STAT TRICK)
The top pairing of Darnell Nurse-Cody Ceci owns a 52 percent goal share but shots and expected goals are a concern. Puck IQ tells us Nurse (355 mins versus elites, 18-14 goals), Ceci (327 mins versus elites, 16-10 goals) and Brett Kulak (204 minutes, 5-6 goals) are the men playing the most against the other team’s best every night.
The real story on this defense is the graduating Condors. Since December 15, Philip Broberg is 0-3-3 at five-on-five in 14 games, averaging 12:20 a night and owning a 1.04 pts-60. His goal share (15-6, 71 percent) at five-on-five is the best percentage among Oilers defensemen in that period, and ranks No. 5 among all defensemen with 150+ minutes since December 15. His shot share (65 percent) and expected goals (67 percent) also shine like a diamond. The key? Jay Woodcroft and Dave Manson are deploying him versus the Soft Parade. Puck IQ’s “Gritensity” chart shows us usage and success rate:
Broberg plays the low end of the NHL depth chart for 47.3 percent of his total five-on-five minutes. He is flourishing (6-3 goals) with Evan Bouchard on a pairing that has enough skill to aid the forwards in posting offense. Broberg’s three assists December 15-Feb 4 is no screaming hell, but he’s retrieving pucks, getting them to safety or better, and Edmonton is having success.
Should Woodcroft move him up? I don’t think so, at least Edmonton shouldn’t count on Broberg to have success moving up the depth chart. He does well against mid-level talent but the sample is small.
All of those words also apply to Vincent Desharnais. Edmonton should play these two young blue, but put them in a position to succeed. Put another way, Edmonton needs to flourish against opponents when the veterans are on the ice. Here’s what that looks like versus elites since December 15.
It’s a small sample for Kulak versus elites, the coaching staff is once again asking much from the top pair. I think Ken Holland needs to address that area of the depth chart at the deadline. I don’t believe Broberg is the answer, not yet.
Jake McCabe is playing against elites about 38 percent of his overall five-on-five minutes, compared to 29 percent for Jack Johnson. It’s only 136 minutes (this is since December 15) and you’d like 200 minutes, and he has been running luck (6-5 goals with a 45.7 Dangerous Fenwick percentage). The other day I suggested acquiring McCabe with $1 million retained, estimating the cost as the first-round pick in 2023 plus Jesse Puljujarvi. I think that’s a strong solution. A stronger one? Jakob Chychrun.
This is Chychrun over the years. He doesn’t play massive minutes as a percentage of overall against elites, but is the No. 2 among LHD in minutes per game versus elites (Shayne Gostisbehere plays a little more). For me, Chychrun is the guy if the Oilers have the pieces, I would guess the deal might be Jesse Puljujarvi, Xavier Bourgault, Markus Niemelainen, the 2023 first-round pick and 2024 second-round pick for Chychrun and Nick Bjugstad. Arizona retains $600,000 on the Chychrun contract. Here’s how it would look, via Cap Friendly.
Kailer Yamamoto back in time for the playoffs, activated in-season only if an Oilers veteran making $3.1 million or more can be placed on LTIR. The Oilers would be pennies from the cap outer marker under LTIR rules.
NEW for The Athletic: Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie turns a corner, now NHL-ready
https://theathletic.com/4154905/2023/02/04/oilers-prospect-raphael-lavoie-lowetide/
Turns the corner of Grease Drive and Bully Ave…
It’s confirmed that McCabe has all Canadian teams except Toronto on his no move clause as per Frank Seravalli. Considering that there are plenty of US teams rumoured to be interested in him I’m pretty sure they won’t need to try and talk him into changing his stance on his no movement clause. McCabe is out.
If he made his nmc during covid then he may not need a talk to change his stance.
He still would have to wave. Covid did not affect that. The transition rules state that contracts would remain intact to the writing of it. It only states precise dates when the contracts and no trade clauses kick in and all of them have long kicked already. He did have one Canadian team on the list to go to.. Toronto.
Barrie, Yamo, Foegle ($10.25 million cap this year and next) for Karlsson and $2.5 million retained by SJS). The sharks get some useful pieces plus they get out of the Karlsson dollars entirely after next season. The Oilers would be on the hook for $9 million each year for another 4 seasons.
Plus, what 3 first rounders?
The Oilers have the best 5v5 Goals rate in the league when leading by 1
27-15 64.29%
/Cam Robinson/
@Hockey_Robinson
Logan Stankoven (DAL) has extended his season-long point streak to 32 games.
He has 27 goals and 70 points over that span.
There was absolutely no reason he should’ve been available in the mid-2nd round.
Dallas stole him.
Stankoven. The diminutive, overage player in the CHL right?
*checks notes… currently D+2 and has been passed by one Aatu Raty, and eclipsed by Swiss defenseman JJ Moser (ARI, of all teams) as far as success by second round drafted players.
It would seem that the Tweet’s true target was misidentified… Moser is third in his draft class in scoring. Overall. And second in NHL games played. Stankoven – NHL games to date: 0.
I had him No. 16, but the Oilers made the right pick in Bourgault (No. 14).
https://lowetide.ca/2021/07/23/here-comes-the-sun-2021-draft-edition/
Summarizing!
Chiasson scored the GWG and earned 2nd star honours as the Blades toppled the #2 team in the CHL.
Lachance struck on the PP in a win for his 24th goal of the season, tied for 2nd in the UHSL, three off the lead.
Brind’Amour was held pointless but owned the dot, going 15-for-21 (71.4%).
Schaefer and Mazura were also held off the scoresheet.
6’4″ Lachance is off to Boston University next year
Aerosmith once wrote this song… something about dream on…
I do not see a team paying big dollars for a divisional rival to throw their former Norris champ and present Norris frontrunner back at them all regular season and every playoffs. I cannot see EK coming here, retained. You would have to destroy every other bid, if he is even being shopped.
It’s the right side that needs bolstering and really Barrie is the logical man to go, but there’s no way on this earth a GM breaks up an historical powerplay. And to tell you the truth, I don’t know if I’ve ever seen the likes of Barrie on the PP. It’s one thing I’m going to remember aleays about this team. That his brain and hands can keep up with Connor’s and Leon’s, and that’s no easy task.
Barrie is a trade in the off-season. And that will happen. If I could trade him now it would be for Mayfield and a pick.
Now Chychrun is a good counter to my line of reasoning here because he would be an improvement on Kulak. Is that improvement worth the asset cost though? And that includes the cost to get cap compliant. And again, ARI is not going to retain. Especially in such a revenue-poor market.
I think the org likes this team. More than you do, you bastards, lol. What I’m saying is, I don’t think they want to shake it up too much. They will add at the fringes and right now there isn’t a lot of fringes on D but with either Foggy or Pujo going out at F for cap reasons, and a weak depth C in Shore, there’s plenty of fringe there.
Get someone who did what Cogliano did for the Avs last year. and be careful with big tickets on D. Notice that the Avs added to their D last year without subtracting from it. I don’t think we can add a Manson this year because cap, but our big year is next year anyways. This year we got to get there, get over that hump. And maybe we get lucky this year and take it all, but next year we definitely take the world and start the first dynasty in forever.
Man you should have seen Coffey PP
Good points all round. The Avs added exactly what the Oilers need. Can’t have too many non physical fancy guys. It creates a weakness to exploit
I remember Coffey well. I stand by what I said.
By the way, on top of the game being much faster today, this powerplay is better than that powerplay in terms of success rate. And if you remember well, much like Gretzky on the breakaway (the first Marchant!), the OG pwerplay often left us wanting.
Plus the formation of the powerplay was completely different and there was another Dman on the ice.
The difference to me is that the 80’s team was walking over the league. They had to try to keep the level up at times
But they scored when they needed to mostly. Gretz didn’t miss when the chips were diwn
I’m thrilled the current PP is historic. But they got skunked multiply when they really needed one, even 5v3
Barrie isn’t a threat to shoot really, that’s why I don’t see him like you do, and I certainly don’t credit the great PP to him. It’s the forwards. He doesn’t hold them back is his big help
Bouch will be better when he gets the distribution down. He is a massive danger off the point. It will open things up for the down low
I’m feeling poetic (ie I have beer and I’m using it), so allow me to wax…
Coffey was special. Lethal on the powerplay yes, great shot, vision, touch, passing ,everything. but what he coukd do that really no one other than Orr could do was take the puck from behind his net to the other end.
And so I believe it was Badger Bob in the playoffs on TV being asked, “How do you stop the Oilers?” And this would have to have been the CBC back then. At any rate, Badger says, “You have to stop Coffey. We’re going to squeeze him to the boards every time he approaches our blue line and force him to make a pass to the middle of the ice.”
Essentialy describing what the Habs had perfected as the trap but aimed at one player. I didn’t know what the trap was when I first heard Badger, the trap came a little later into the common hockey jargon, but that’s what he was talking about.
Now, before you say it, yes, Erik Karlsson is probably the closest thing to Coffey on ice today. But keep in mind, Sather did not think Coffey essential to the Cup and traded him.
Well put, as you’re wont to do. The punctilious part of me also appreciates you using an before historical.
Wasn’t that long ago that folks were suggesting Mayfield was the surefire panacea to the d-corpse, only that we’d have to add to the equation to assuage Lou for taking on cap space.
Do you see that as a result in a change in the market, an increase in Barrie’s value, or generally think the ~$3MM (and an extra year) amongst friends as inconsequential?
PS I see TB as an under appreciated contributor by the fanbase, by number… and a value-add for the things he does well (like, say, his best Johnny Cash impression). I agree with your assessment of the C-suite perspective, and also would look to trade him in the off-season in the name of balance.
How many Goals would Tkachuk score if he was a Oiler 55-60? The funny part is Vancouver passed on him going rogue and picking the dud D-man. The Cam Neely trade was a bizarre transaction which was almost as dumb as not picking Tkachuk
Chiasson picks off an errant pass in his own zone, evades a check as he enters the O-zone, and zips one 5-hole for his 13th of the year:
https://mobile.twitter.com/BladesHockey/status/1622067689891024897?cxt=HHwWgsC-mYn-3oItAAAA
Lots of talk about d today.
I personally would rate Cale Makar as the best defenseman in the game today. Others may have different opinions.
The best defenseman alive is 5’11” and weighs 187 pounds. That’s the game today.
Evolving Hockey’s model has Makar at
99th percentile overall
99th percentile offensively
86th percentile defensively
That is a perfect hockey player. Wish we had him.
Makar has absolutely elite hockey IQ. He keeps up the 97. Perfect speed, agility and edges. Eyes on the back of his head, so he’s impossible to wear down with hits in a series.
DFF of 54.7% against elites.
Unfortunately, when you have a d who’s élite offensively and defensively, they’re never going to get traded. Cough Hampus Lindholm.
More typically, you have Adam Larssons and Vince Dunns.
For the Evolving Hockey models one thing becomes quickly apparent, they weigh offensive ratings far higher than defensive ratings in their overall percentiles. I believe that the gap in ability between the best and worse defensive players is far smaller than the gap between the best and worse offensive players.
Now while you need your Adam Larsons and Codi Cecis, but if you have to choose, you take the Vince Dunn every time.
For that reason, ignoring cap and assets required in trade, I would take Karlsson then Chychrun then Provorov.
Yep.
Acquiring Karlsson would instantly make the Oilers Cup favourites…the others being talked about here…not so much.
What do you figure is a realistic asset package from EDM to acquire EK65? (Something Grier would accept and something Holland can make fit.)
The ask is reportedly 3 firsts with San Jose retaining 18%.
I would counter with 2023 and 2024 firsts, Bouchard, Jesse and a forward prospect like Bourgault if San Jose agrees to retain 30%.
The Oilers would also have to move Yamamoto to make the cap work but perhaps a third team would take him and a second round pick to absorb a bit of cap or maybe the Sharks would take him and Foegele if they think they could flip them for late rounds picks.
If the Sharks manage to move Karlsson and Timo Meier, they will be freeing up a huge amount of cap space so could be flexible.
Considering that wingers have become distressed assets it shouldn’t be too difficult to find a right winger to plug that hole.
So according to your logic, we have to give them 5 firsts.
If you think Jesse, Bouchard, Yamamoto and/or Bourgault are living up to their draft pedigree….sure.
With the McDavid/Draisaitl window counting down, none of those players has the ability to have a big impact on winning a cup anytime soon which is exactly the point.
Karlsson does .
That ZOOM you heard was the point going directly over your head.
That’s still a 8.05 mil cap hit at 30% retention and the team already needs to shed cap.
Not happening even if Karlsson magically waves his clause which I’m sure he’s not
Jesse, Yamamoto, Foegele and Bouchard total $9.7 million out.
If you can get another team to eat a bit, it’s easily doable.
Whether or not Karlsson waives was not the question.
Yeah, the 18% figure is oddly specific and would have to be negotiated. 50% is an obvious non-starter due to AAV & term, but the inclusion of a third team isn’t out of the question.
Long gone are the days of Brent Burns and a 2nd for Devin Setoguchi, Charlie Coyle and a 1st.
As much as I like the notion of EK65 on our team dishing up sauce to Connor and Leon, the realistic price is likely too dear considering the existing cap structure and window of contention.
I’d agree Karlsson makes us a better team dynamically. How do you replace that IQ, speed, grit, and motor?
I’m not sold on Chychrun. What exactly has he proved? I lean to Provorov due to durability and cost.
If you don’t mind me asking, as I’m genuinely interested, but what has you putting so much stock lately into the EH model? Is it because you paid for it so you’re trying to offer/extract as much value as possible? Or do they have something so genuinely unique that isn’t captured elsewhere?
Personally speaking, what I’ve seen of their model has me posing more questions than conclusions. Push come to shove I’d probably put their work somewhere around the Turtoro model and above Dom’s most often only accurate as an exception to the rule model. The public data sphere is tough, which is to say that it’s useful to extract value wherever possible, but one ought to have a skeptical eye. For instance, look at the delta in consensus with xGF among the public sources.
I post here a lot. You read my posts, so you know that I don’t rely on one thing. I try to look at players from multiple angles and sources.
For top 3/4 d, I have my own rubric to evaluate relying on minutes and Fenwick stats. (Most of these I discussed at this blog years ago with GMoney)
1 point per hour
20 minutes per game plus. More is better
Positive possession stats (Fenwick)
17 minutes at 5v5 + (thanks JP)
EH does an impeccable job of quickly and succinctly answering one question. How does a player actually play the minutes they’re given?
What they don’t do is tell you exactly what those minutes are or allow you to compare a 3rd pairing defender on a good team to a first pair defender on a bad team, for example. PuckIQ fills in those gaps.
I have Provorov and Chychrun pretty close. Provorov has only posted a point per hour once in his career and it was ages ago… I dock him for that. I also place high value on transition ability for d. Provorov doesn’t hold as well here.
I’d be thrilled if we added Provorov. I remain sceptical about cap retention prospects.
Excellent post, much appreciated.
For what it’s worth, I often see you comparing various statistical measures, but noticed an uptick in EH metrics so it begged the question.
Sort of reminds me how isolated stats showed 3rd pairing guys like Benning or Bear to be bonafide 1st pairing RHD that were under appreciated, or just weren’t getting the opportunity. Another reminder that it’s important to consider a variety of inputs when making an assessment based on numbers.
Thanks again.
Be interested to see what EH says about the more conventional defenders who are universally recognized as top tier.
Guys like Hedman, Slavin, Letang, Doughty, Josi, Chara, etc. Really any of the guys who pass the JP test. That was generally a very good list.
Hedman 95-97-26
Slavin 95-66-98
Letang 63-73-13
Josi – 97-98-23
Fox – 99-98-88
Doughty – 80-77-73
Devon Toews?
98-90-99
I like Toews plenty,but you have to take some air out of his tires for playing with Makar.
Of course…but he also allows Makar to be Makar.
Much appreciated. I recall you’ve posted somewhere before but what’s the sequence of those numbers? OV-Off-Def? Or are they three years of overall?
Makar is an exceptional player but he’s unique. Most of the D his size I wouldn’t want
Right now, if time ahead wasn’t a factor, I’d still take Hedman first
At his best he’s dominant like few D are. With his size and skating there is no counter. We’ll see if teams begin to counter Makar. So far they haven’t given him the McDavid treatment
The problem with trying to “McDavid” Makar is you allow Devon Toews to go to town.
Trading for an aging defenseman with three disappointing seasons prior to this one, and four seasons remaining on his contract? No thanks.
I say this as someone who believes that Karlsson, earlier in his career, was highly underrated, and deserved 1-2 more Norris trophies than he won. He did things that no defenseman had done since Bobby Orr (i.e. lead the league in assists). He’s a first-ballot Hall of Famer, for sure.
But I don’t think he is the same player anymore, and I don’t think his current pace is anywhere near sustainable.
This gives me Carey-Price-after-bubble-Cup-run vibes.
Or, to use another sort-of-comparable, imagine Jonathan Toews had four more years left on his contract. Would we still be talking about trading for him? Karlsson is basically Toews with four contract years added and one extra renaissance half-season, motivated by the desire to GTFO of a bottom-feeding Sharks squad.
But you know who IS available? That’s right. Brogden Raggerdry! For the bargain price of $750K!
What is Kenny waiting for?! (Maybe he’s just playing it coy, the better to keep the acquisition cost low.)
He would at least be a massive upgrade on the Streets of Bakersfield.
How about Evan Bouchard?
I appreciate what you’re saying.
My comment was framed specifically though I might not have been adequately explicit.
Irrespective of injury risk, cap hit, acquisition cost, aging curves and future seasons…
In other words, right now today how would I rate the three in terms of impact on winning hockey games. That’s all I’m referring to.
OK, yeah, I don’t disagree. Karlsson at the moment is a very good player. It’s the tradeoffs that make me stay far, far away.
Elliotte Friedman
@FriedgeHNIC
WASH announces 3x$1.9M AAV extension for Sonny Milano
It doesn’t have a NMC
Lachance opens the scoring with a PP marker, goal #24 for #24.
Lots of Erik Karlsson trade ideas out there. Last week Bob Stauffer made it clear Karlsson would not waive his NMC to come to Edmonton so that pretty much puts that to bed thank
Christ.
I’ve posited that I have a hard time believing that Karlsson would commit to four years in Edmonton (fully acknowledging that he played for many years in Ottawa and, I believe, still has a home there) but this is the first I’ve heard anything other than speculation.
Even without a NMC, I have a hard time imagining the Oilers consummating this transaction – Holland has been undertaking a steady build to a team that will have a shot year after year after year and the cost of this transaction when you factor in the requirement for 4 years of retention (if not two teams to carry 4 years) for a player his age with his injury history after one bounce back year to elite…. seems out of the realm of reasonableness.
What did Bob say?
Teddy’s overstating it but not by much. More like, “I don’t think EK would waive to come to Edmonton.” So not knowledge thereof.
Forgetting cap and things like injury history, you take Karlsson first every day of the week and twice on Sundays.
It’s a good thing I’m not GM because I would be heavily pursuing Karlsson with retention. Here’s my plan. First order of business is get Bouch signed to a bridge, 2 or 3 years around $2.5M – $3M.
Then build a package around Ceci to San Jose, maybe Ceci – a forward prospect, Bourgault or Lavoie, plus a 1st or even 2 1sts if they retain $3.5M. Then call up phoenix buffalo and Anaheim and offer 2 more 1sts to retain another $4M for 4 years.
Full cost is Ceci, Bourgault, 4 late round 1sts for EK @ $4M for 5 playoff runs.
Bold moves baby!
Bold Move? Nurse for Karrlson, salary difference retained. (I know he has a NMC, convince him, boldly).
Provorov does not fit the Oilers current- or future cap situation. His acquisition would mean having to part with several roster players, and limit the team’s ability to re-sign McLeod and Bouchard.
Longer term it would threaten the Oilers ability to sign Draisaitl, and that’s a no-no.
This is why Chyckrun is the best target. They can work him into the cap now, and have the flexibility when they need to re-sign Draisaitl.
Retention makes it viable.
Even with retention Provorov is likely to be cheaper to acquire.
And he’s a better defenseman who isn’t made of glass.
At equal salary I like Provorov. Liked him leading up to the draft in 2015 before Edm won the golden ticket.
Salary retention, especially over multiple years, is rare and is costly. The only instances I can think of are a) Lucic, and b) OEL, and in both circumstances it was evident the player was never going to play to their respective cap hits.
Trading away $6M in salary, or asking for this amount of retention over 3 years, costs roughly a 1st round pick. That’s the price the Leafs paid Carolina to take one year of Patrick Marleau.
I say this because I find it very hard to believe that Philly would be happy to retain $2M on Ivan’s salary x 3 years, without the price being Higher than the acquisition cost on Chyckrun.
But yeah if Philly was willing to do that then go for it.
Thing about the Marleau deal is it happened pre-pandemic. Prices have fluctuated greatly since then due to the flat cap conditions.
Some other multi-year retained salary trades that I noticed with a quick look at CapFriendly are Matt Murray, Richard Panik, and Brent Burns. Perhaps there are yet others. So different situations all around, and for players occupying vastly spots in the lineup.
In my estimation, the reported ask for Chychrun is greater than Provorov (even with retention) and when you consider the gap in durability between the two; the delta in value is too great.
Who’s playing top four minutes when JC inevitably lands in the infirmary? I crunched the numbers: JC misses an average of 26% per season, so far over his career. To put that in context, in the sole year IP missed more than three games he played more (69 games) than any single year of JC’s entire career (max of 68 games, in his rookie year and 63 only one other time). IP is exceptionally durable.
source: https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/buy-or-beware-assessing-jakob-chychruns-trade-value
Compared to the spread in rumoured cost for Provorov:
From:
source: https://www.inquirer.com/flyers/flyers-ivan-provorov-trade-rumors-deadline-20230112.html
To:
source: https://thehockeywriters.com/oilers-risky-bet-trading-flyers-provorov/
So we’re likely talking somewhere between those two deals.
JP+Kulak ($5.75MM AAV combined) would only require $1MM retention from PHI to be cap-neutral. I don’t see the likely cost for that to be excruciating (a 3rd or a 4th?). Add a first and a B-prospect, and we’re talking about a much more palatable deal than the hill Armstrong has decided to die on… for damaged goods.
YMMV.
One small side note is that it might be possible to package another pick/prospect to grab Zack MacEwen for the bottom six, thereby doing most of our deadline shopping in one fell swoop.
Draisaitl, Chychrun and Provorov’s contracts all expire at the same time (summer 2025).
Please forgive me if this idea has been floated before but I honestly have not seen it.
All talk of “money in and money out” and forcing other teams who may or may not be willing to retain money….
If management/owner were truly committed to winning the Cup, could we not do:
Foegle (2.75) and Bouchard (0.863) plus whatever AHL prospect and number of high picks required
for
Chycrun (4.6) and Bjugstad (.900) and…..Ladd (5.5)?
Ladd’s money to IR allows us to keep all our forwards (including activating Yamo) and keep defence in tact with Desharnais 3RD and Kulak/Broberg 7D…that’s a deep, stacked team willing to take a run at the Cup NOW!
Next season we lose all of:
Klefbom/Ladd/Smith/JP/Derek Ryan/Shore/Murray/Lucic/Sekera= $21M
With only McLeod +/- Kostin/Janmark to resign plus Skinner raise. Team chemistry remains for another run at Cup. Rest used to upgrade or to save for McDrai.
That’s how TB would do it. Haven’t looked at other LTIR contracts to take on but would this not work?
Adding Ladd doesn’t give any extra cap space. It would increase the LTIR pool by $5.5MM but it would also increase the cap hit by $5.5MM.
Taking on LTIR contracts doesn’t help the cap situation unless the team we are trading with takes cap back.
I find it interesting that no one wants to talk about Provorov.
He’s available, he is at worst a legitimate 2LD on any team in the league, who can play some against the elites, who doesn’t just try to wring it off the glass and out (aka – McCabe), but can actually skate and make and receive a pass.
Both the player and his current team are in favour of a separation, so I can’t imagine the cost is going to be as high as the ask for Chychrun, and Philly will probably be more willing to retain cap than Arizona will. 2 years older than Chychrun but also has 2 years left on his deal – Oilers would be renting him for 3 playoff runs. Bridges the development timeline for Broberg to be over-ripe for 2LD, and then you walk away from him as a UFA. Has actual playoff experience, as opposed to Chychrun who’s basically a rookie in that regard.
The locker room stuff is a concern but it also brings the price down … the Oilers have done well with bringing in players with checkered off ice issues (e.g. Kassian, Kane), and have a great core of veterans now (Connor, Leon, Nurse, Hyman, Nuge, Barrie, Ceci), level-headed coaching and front office that can mitigate the concern.
The propensity to turn the puck over would be my concern on the player, but I’m not sure how much of that is team-driven.
I’d also add that Provorov’s worst season offensively, is better than any season McCabe has ever had.
If you’re going to replacement Kulak with someone better, than I’d prefer to aim higher than McCabe.
I’ve been on the Provo train since before the recent drama on national TV. That could actually drive down the price/up the motivation for the team to make a trade.
Have perused a fair number of PHI blogs and the locker room angle seems a bit overwrought. Think it stems from a frustrated season exit interview with the media where he lashed out at a reporter. General word seems to be many of the veterans are sick of the losing and amenable to a trade.
Fun fact about IP is he’s exceptionally durable. Drafted in 2015 (#7OV) and he’s played in 501 games to date. Zach Werenski, the next player drafted, has played only 416.
As we’ve seen in Edmonton, the MSM can be a gauge of the team’s interest to move a player. I don’t think it’s really any different in any other market … the MSM starts to write articles that pave the player’s exit from an organization, which run counter to the opinion of a team’s diehard fans/bloggers.
Oh there’s no doubt it’s time for him to move along. I absolutely love that he’s just about to enter his prime and is reasonably priced for what he brings.
This is absolutely a player we should be pursuing. It would be so satisfying to trade for a player and see him pop with us, instead of the other way around (Maroon aside).
I endorse this 100% . Holland let’s make this happen while the coals sre hot.
I respect Provo even more when he stood up for his religion. Only the woke crowd would think that his value has diminished
His jersey sold out of official retailers basically overnight.
Lots of wierdoes are running the gong show.
The issue with Provorov is the cap hit, $6.75m
Philly spent good assets to get a clean disposition of Gostisbehere.
Which teams other than Ottawa currently are retaining cap on multi year contracts?
The big one is San Jose with Brent Burns.
As for Provorov, his PuckIQ elites have really declined the last few years. I’m not sure if that’s due to his team, d partner, or injury. He plays mostly with D’Angelo this year.
His now outdated Turtoro numbers look great suggesting that he’s a modern defenseman.
EH doesn’t rate him well. 28-13-38. However, he does play big 5v5 and PK1 minutes. He also plays 2nd unit PP.
He plays 23:09 per game through 3 game states. That is a number 1 d albeit on a bad team.
He passes the JP test (plays over 17 min per game at 5v5 with a positive FF% rel).
I think Provorov is interesting and could be a huge addition.
I’m skeptical that Philly would retain cap.
Provorov has been tasked with carrying a litany of subpar players masquerading as top pairing for years. Other than four games with Ellis before injury, the last player he didn’t have to polish was Niskanen.
Sounds like Darnell Nurse……
Provorov seems like a poor man’s Nurse. He might be a little better defensively but not as good at at driving 5v5 offense. Still like Nurse, he plays top 5v5 minutes, PK1, and PP 2.
He’d certainly make Nurse’s life easier as Nurse plays monster 5v5 minutes and we have no one else to play over 17 5v5 minutes per game.
You could argue that he’d be insurance on a nurse injury, but our right hand depth is too poor for him to carry a top pairing.
One of the reasons I think Larson wanted to leave was he played the shitty minutes.
Larsson was fed a steady diet of tough comp paired with the third and fourth lines (no 97) Those are the real shawshank minutes.
You could slot Provorov in those.
As for Fletcher, he’s almost in the Chiarelli tier, so I agree with him being a good place to shop.
I played d growing up. I hung up the skates after Bantaam AAA. Sadly I was made out of worse glass than Klefbom.
I didn’t have a lick of puck skill except I could make a good first pass, but I had good wheels and defensive awareness. I was the first player over the boards every pk on my team.
My recollection is that 5v5 minutes are the most difficult in terms of physical exertion.
I don’t remember PK minutes being that hard in terms of physical exertion.We played the box back then, so you’re mostly standing around waving your stick or fighting puck battles or for position.
Nurse probably plays too many 5v5 minutes.
Defending rush attacks where you‘re skating the length of the ice, that’s what wears you out. Or if you jump into the play on the attack then having defend a rush attack headed back after you’re caught deep.
I’m not sure that’s 100% true on Larsson – in the 2020 season, his most mates were Leon and Kailer and, the year before, it was Leon, Nuge and Kailer…..
He was generally paired with the 2nd pairing and then scrambled around the rest of the order.
You are right though, its not like he played 50% of his TOI with a solid top 6 line – he was rented out through the order it seems.
You’re looking at this the wrong way. Leon, Nuge and Connor all play a lot of 5v5 minutes, so they’ve going to be common line-mates for Larson.
It’s not about who Larsson plays most with. It’s about who the bottom six played mostly with.
Larsson was stapled to the bottom six in his last year.
Shore’s most common linemate was Adam Larsson. (That’s either forward or defender)
McLeod’s must common linenate? Larsson That’s either forward or defender)
Janes Neal? Larson is second to Chiasson.
Haas? Chiasson then Larsson
Khaira? Archibald then Larsson.
Khaira played 204 minutes with Larsson, but only 94 with Nurse.
Larsson babysat the bottom six and I’m guessing he didn’t like it.
Larsson’s 2020-21 season saw him play 305 minutes versus elites via Puck IQ. 53.7 DFF%, great rel number.
http://puckiq.com/woodmoney?season=20202021&tier=Elite&positions=d&team=edm&group_by=player_season_team
His most common forward linemate? Leon Draisaitl
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20202021&thruseason=20202021&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=oi&rate=y&v=t&playerid=8476457
I checked three bottom six forwards on Seattle, B. Tanev, R. Donato, M. Geekie – Adam Larsson their most common d-man and top 3 most common ice-mate for all of them…..
Sorry, was that the year Larsson was recovering from his father’s death? Can’t recall precisely. I think him playing down the order for a year was more a factor of mental health more than it was ability.
I agree that any sanely run organization would not retain for a player of Provorov’s capabilities …. but it’s Philly we’re talking about here. They have been and still are such a wild card organization. Chuck Fletcher is not a patient GM. Torts is even more volatile.
With Philly, all of our presumed notions of what a reasonable organization would do should be suspended – this is a team that traded a 1st and 2nd for Risto two years ago, then 2nd, 3rd and 4th round picks for DeAngelo last summer, and then signed them both to 5 million dollar deals. This isn’t even counting the Ryan Ellis deal, which only looks better now in retrospect, because all three players involved are basically out of the league.
They are every bit as much of a tire fire as the Canucks are.
Kulak, JP, and our 2023 first round pick for Provorov with 20-25% retained would be my starting offer. This essentially amounts to Philly getting a 1st round pick to downgrade from Provorov to Kulak.
I’ve seen the Lindholm deal floated as a comparable. Feels a tad rich, especially if Fletcher is ripe to be fleeced.
A recent article at The Hockey Writers (I know lol) had an interesting take for a potential deal (emphasis mine).
source: https://thehockeywriters.com/oilers-risky-bet-trading-flyers-provorov/
I like the player but to get him to fit capwise, kulak, puljujarvi and ryan/Janmark all have to depart with no replacement for the forwards.
Would rather have Provorov with retention than Karlsson or Chychrun.
Adding the player would be a great, I just don’t see why the Flyers would retain on him.
And why would they be more likely than Arizona? The Flyers are a cap team, in LTIR this season, is there any indication they’re going to tear it down? I imagine they’re planning to spent to the cap next season as well, unlike Arizona.
So for me, the biggest issue is Provorov’s $6.75M contract. The Oilers could fit it, but they’d have to sacrifice a bunch of other stuff, and I just don’t believe the Flyers would retain a large chunk of it.
Whose bright idea was it to give the Pacific and Central teams similar coloured uniforms?
Mcdavid and Draisaitl with Karlsson look pretty good together. Dare to dream
Will McDavid and Draisaitl playing with Karlsson in the All Star game be the only time that happens this season?
Sure hope not!
If we’re going to spend assets for an upgrade on D, go for the Aces and Kings, not the 7s or 9s.
Nor the 2s or 3s like Jerred Smithson.
I’d be more amenable to acquiring Chychrun, IF:
Wondering if anyone here has the lowdown on Christian Wolanin.
He’s a 6’2” 190 left shot defenseman, a 4th round pick by Ottawa who at 27 has bounced around the league and the AHL where he is currently playing for Abbotsford.
He leads all AHL D in points by a considerable margin with 44GP 5G 50P +13.
I’ve never heard speculation that Vancouver might call him up despite their woeful D nor any interest from other teams.
What gives?
Craig’s boy, massive spike in offense but he did have a season in the USHL and final NCAA campaign that were strong. Blue can spike offensively later on.
Sideburns?
It’s interesting. Canucks already have Hughes so let’s review. But someone should be able to use him.
Second coming of Brogan Rafferty.
Nah…the Immortal Brogan Rafferty (not the serial killer) is only 10th in AHL D scoring with 27 points in 40GP.
For reference, Mike Kesselring, who leads the Condors D with 19 points, is 39th.
Wolanin is actually 5th in AHL scoring overall.
It was an admirable try, but when you’re in a hole… stop digging.
If I’m Holland I would keep offering Bourgault to Montreal and see if a Sergachev Drouin type deal can shake loose. The Habs tend to overpay to bring local kids home.
But for whom? You’re not actually after Drouin are you? 😉
At first glance that seemed like a lot of assets going to the desert. It is! However, when you break it down, JP is simply not returning, Bourgault and Niemelainen have almost no NHL games combined, and the picks are the cost of doing business for a roster spot of weakness with another team.
Only thing is it doesn’t leave much (if any) room to sign Bouchard’ next contract (I see the dreaded bridge) or upgrade RW in the summer.
I just hope this isn’t the shiny new toy trade, and of course the injury history could make this trade look real bad in a real damn hurry. I simply don’t know much about Chychrun unless we play them (and usually win) and from the data presented on this blog.
Meant to say this the other day, way to go on 20 years here LT! We all appreciate it! Cheers!
I’d do that trade if I’m Edmonton. Bourgault could turn out great, but he might also turn out to be the next prospect that polarizes the entire fan base aka JP, who gets held onto for so long that his trade value is basically zero.
Chycrun is a known commodity, and on a decent contract for future years. And he fills a need on this team. If he bumps Broberg to #7 that’s fantastic. Not many legit contenders rely on a rookie to play significant minutes on a deep run. The West is wide open this year.
Thats a good looking roster LT (the Chychrun one).
The other angle could be to use JP + a 1st for a value contract a la Hagel. Owen Tippett comes to mind. That would get them cap compliant but still need that top 3 dman.
Karlsson would be fun/amazing but I cant see the oilers making that cap work.
Stauff did say this past week “when Yamamoto is activated from LTIR for the game against the Habs on Feb 12….”…..
Does anybody know why he’s not playing? If I was a Oiler insider or Sports reporter Yamo being out this long would be of interest to me. Hell I’m not even getting paid to cover the Oilers and it’s of interest to me. Does he have a limp is he favouring his arm those kinda things can be a dead giveaway for the slower people covering the Oilers.
Feel free to reach out to DNB or Rishaug or Spec or Stauff or Wilkins or Gregor and ask why they haven’t provided the info you are interested in. They are all publicly available.
Are you saying all these Paid Hockey analysts, reporters, influencers or whatever their title is nowadays are all saying he has a neck injury? I must of been in a cave for awhile because all I’ve heard was just his possible injury nothing definite. Thanks for setting me straight your a true Gentleman.
No, I did not say that – what the flying off are you reading?
Do you even read the comments around here or just post hot takes all the live long day?
Just yesterday it was discussed in detail in the comments thread, and (as OP states) basically every single member of the local media contingent has covered it at some point.
It’s been recently reported as a neck issue.
Is that right. I was indisposed for most of the last couple of days anyhow you don’t hear about to many neck injuries. Eichel Is the only one that I recall. Neck injuries sound serious whiplash injuries never go away. Who made you Cock of the Block with your pissy little comments?
You’re so full of shit.
You were posting all day in yesterday’s thread while Yamamoto’s injury was being discussed. CTRL-F and your name = 28 matches (to be fair, several of which come in replies from others to your posts).
10:02 am
12:26 pm
2:52 pm
3:43 pm
4:17 pm
… and on and on.
Who made you Foghorn Leghorn of the blog, what with your dispositions that things just ain’t like they used to be, and don’t confuse me with the facts when people offer you data (that you refuse to consider)? People give you context and information constantly, daily, and you just spout off with your tired narratives and speculation, without ever evolving your viewpoints. And you’re surprised people grow weary with constantly having to dispel false notions? Get real.
The trouble with your trade proposal is that it’s well short of Arizona’s ask for the player.
Serious question: is Chychrun better defensively than Kulak? Is his added value wholly (or even mostly) on the offensive side of the puck?
I think Bourgault and the 2023 first rounder is close to what Arizona will eventually get for Chychrun. Arizona can say it wants 2 first rounders and an A prospect for Chychrun but at the end of the day no one is willing to pay that. If Arizona doesn’t trade Chychrun this deadline and get another 1st in 2023 I believe its a big failure for their organization. They need picks now to improve their team and Chychrun’s value will go down even further if he isn’t dealt this spring. Chychrun is a top 4 D man he is not Chris Pronger or any top pair guy. For the record I don’t think the Oilers and Arizona are interested in each other when it comes to a Chychrun deal.
The thing is, their ask really hasn’t changed in 18 months. You can say that it will change soon, but when? They’ve been peddling Chychrun for a long time, they KNOW nobody is meeting their ask, yet still they persist. And Chychrun is having a great season statistically, so why would they lower their ask now?
It doesn’t seem to be a realistic expectation.
ARI needs more picks like East Hastings needs more needles.
That organization should be trading for mature, blue chip players, and seek to utilize the value of their epic cache of draft picks by either picking players that can produce, or to acquire developed players of value.
Just looking at the first three rounds of the next three drafts:
IMO, they should look to trade Chychrun for another top-4 defender, or a bonafide centre or goalie to start building an actual NHL hockey team. Their internal cap surely isn’t helping things, but Gary’s joke is getting old.
Arizona wants the moon for Chychrun, and my niece wants a pony. Neither one is likely to happen.
I understand the premise of not moving Broberg up, I mean, he and Bouch are killing the soft parade.
At the same time, I do think it behooves the coaching staff and the org to give him some reps up the lineup.
I mean, would it not be beneficial for planning purposes for next season, let alone this year’s playoffs, to see how close he is to being able to handle 2LD comp – for stretches or even full time?
There are a few ways to do this.
They could “balance the minutes” a bit as between the Kulak/Barrie pair with the Broberg/Bouch pair. That may be the easiest and least disruptive way. Just give the existing pairing a few shifts against tougher comp here or there.
Also, as LT alludes to above, and as I’ve stated a few times over the last while – Nurse/Bouch has had success in the past and has had success this season. Sure the “visual on Bouch” maybe doesn’t scream top pair right now but he’s played well with Nurse before and it could allow some reps with the following deployment:
Nurse/Bouch
Broberg/Ceci
Kulak/Barrie
With the 7D set-up, its not like Manson is running standard pairs – I think some experimenting here would be a great idea.
Ceci is a horrible match for Broberg.
Go
Kulak Ceci
Broberg Barrie
Broberg is a elite retriever so to maximize him you want his partner to be a plus agile passer.
Ceci can pass but is a ponderous passer.
Kulak defends entries well and Ceci in zone
Bro seems well rounded but green so who knows? Barrie is only good in the O zone
I’m not sure Barrie is agile either. But Bro is ready to pop, he just needs reps. 31 more games if they let him cut his teeth and I think he’s pushing people down
Im not a huge Kulak Barrie pairing fan, I know their fancies are good, but certain forward groups can dominate them as they are both not great with physical forwards that attack the net
So are you suggesting a only depth D add at the deadline?
They don’t want to move Bro, silly to move Bouch because it’s near impossible to trade for a RHD like him, Ceci is solid and on a good deal, Nurse isn’t going anywhere, they just signed Kulak so unlikely to move him. That leaves Barrie. Or if you add a 2LHD Bro drops to 7th come playoffs. Trying to see where everyone fits
Offensive D with suspect D are always available in trade.
Klingberg, Shattenkirk, DeAngelo, Faulk, Marino, Dumba, Barrie,
I’m not so sure – RHD are unicorns at the best of times and ones with offence and upside like Bouch have to be drafted. Either that or you have to pay a premium in trade or FA. Marino was a cap casualty deal – those are rare
I agree with your point, but Marino doesn’t belong in that list. He’s been the puckmover on defensively-focused pairings most of his career (Pettersson & Graves as primary partners). His isn’t a game characterised by ‘suspect D’.
Exactly
I know he makes gaffes by eye (who doesn’t), but Barrie’s GF% is basically 50% or better pretty much every season of his career. JP has brought this up to you time and again.
Your meme needs fine tuning.
I was not suggesting that – I was just speaking to deployment of current roster personnel. Truth be told, its tough for me to see a legit 2nd pairing d-man add that makes complete sense given current and future cap structuring and where I think Broberg is going in the next 2-12 months.
Balancing the minutes is what they did last year. They used Nurse-Ceci as a Super #1 pair, with Keith-Bouchard & Kulak-Barrie somewhere between 2A/2B & 3A/3B. Worked fine, both Barrie & Bouch thrived against lesser comp.
That would head then to a stand pat/depth add deadline, which I think will happen in the end. Unless Kenny can pull off a major upgrade – eg. Ekholm level – I’m ok with that approach if they can upgrade up front. Has the league changed just enough so that a team may be able win by out scoring…..maybe.
I’ll continue to bang the drum for Kulak-Ceci as a pairing until they try it and prove it doesn’t work. Because, from their limited time together, it seemed to work well as far as I could tell.
The fact that Nurse-Bouchard has a history of being a terrific pairing as well really doesn’t do much to discourage the idea of doing so.
To me the gaps in the Oilers lineup are at RW and RD.
Ceci, Barrie & Bouchard is a decent right side but none of those guys jump off the page as a true #1/2 defender. Bouchard and Barrie are similar players so it makes sense that one of them likely goes in a deal.
RW is JP, Yamo, Kostin, Ryan and some
of the other guys can play there, out of necessity on this team.
Depth center would be nice as well.
I get the Chychrun talk though, he’s probably the best available defenseman with a reasonable cap hit. I think Broberg is the piece that goes the other way in that deal, or if I’m the Yotes that’s the key prospect in the trade, not Bourgault or Shaefer.
Kulak just signed long term here, he is from here. I’d be shocked if the Oilers moved him as it’s a bit of a kick in the teeth for that player and might sow some bad blood with potential future FAs. That’s not a Ken Holland type move (even though it’s probably the correct call)
It was reported a long time ago that Broberg was Armstrong’s #1 target and that Holland broke off talks as a result. Holland simply won’t move Broberg for Chychrun.
If I were Armstrong I’d want Broberg as well. A tall smooth skating defenceman that has offensive upside and at 21 years old is progressing nicely on the defensive side in the NHL. All these veteran GMs seem to really value highly their tall wonderful skating Swedish D. Ken Holland included. I think I have to say I’m on their side…
The gaps in the defense are definitely in the top 4. Kulak and Barrie were great in a 3rd pairing role last year, but they struggle to hold their own as a 2nd pair. If Holland really wants to make a difference, adding a Chychrun or Karlsson is the play. And I don’t think he wants to trade Bouchard or Broberg, so it becomes very tough to do. If it’s Karlsson, Barrie has to go the other way for cap purposes. If it’s Chychrun, then 1 of Kulak or Barrie would have to go. Either trade would require a ton of prospects and/ or draft capital to make it work.
I don’t know why everyone insists on placing Hyman at LW on the depth chart? He shoots right and is currently this teams 1RW. And which 2 forward prospects are closest to the NHL. Right now it looks like Lavoie and Bourgault. I don’t think RW is as big a hole as some suggest.
Broberg is a sure #3D in the near future with potential upside to a legit #2D, and some potential to be a legit #1D. It would be nuts to trade him when he is already killing the soft minutes today and PKing already. He tilts the soft minutes for the bottom six in the Oilers favour already like no other Oiler D has done for a decade.
Broberg’s runway as an affordable D for the Oilers is also a lot longer than Chychrun’s 2.5 years.
If Bouchard were the key piece for Chychrun, I could stomach that. Barrie will re-sign at bargain levels to stay with the gang.
i.e. What Bouchard brings is less important and/or more replaceable than what Broberg brings.
This is correct thinking.
Oiler scouts should be able to assess which of the D are good at what and that info with the ask determines the call
Kulak needs to move down and Bro isn’t there in the coaches eyes. Another factor is whether Ceci is the projected partner
I think every NHL player should be able to skate and handle the puck well enough to make passes, it’s the best league in the world, right? That being said if Bouch or Barrie are the intended partner, the new guy would be most helpful if he’s strong in zone
If it’s Ceci has to be a puck mover and preferably with some wheels
So if Kulak moves down (which would be ideal) what do you with Bro? Send him to the Bake or dress 7 and send Vinny down?
I think sending Kulak out in an upgrade like flea says above is the right call – he was signed to be 2LD but he’s not strong enough in that spot given the RHD – but also agree it’s not a Kenny move after just signing the guy.
Sending Bro to Bako at this point would be a huge kick in the junk. His pairing has been outscoring by ~a goal per game in the NHL.
One of the things we forget is just how much the No. 7 and No. 8 options on defense play in the postseason, or regular season for that matter. Going into the playoffs with real depth on defense is not a negative.
Bro isn’t there in the coaches’ eyes? By “there” do you mean top 4?
Prospectikka!
The quintet who plays today is mostly the same as yesterday, with Chiasson replacing Wanner.
Youngstown (Lachance) @ 5 p.m.
St. Lawrence (Mazura) @ 5 p.m.
Quinnipiac (Brind’Amour) @ 6 p.m.
Saskatoon (Chiasson) @ 6 p.m.
Seattle (Schaefer) @ 7 p.m.
All times, at all times, are Glenevis time.
Yes, I believe Chycrun is absolutely the right play. If you’re gonna pay the price, then get multiple playoff runs out of the asset—something Tampa’s done a few times lately. Not to mention the AAV.
He also does things well that Nurse does not, and we’ve seen Kulak really excel in fewer minutes. Perfect left-side solution IMO.
Git er done, Tambo!
ARI will not be retaining on the Chychrun contract. They might however retain on Bjugstad, but half of his salary would not be enough, and you still have to magically keep a healthy player off the roster for another seven weeks.
Exactly. Arizona doesn’t have money to pay guys who don’t play for the team anyhow. They need real cash even more that picks .. But why would they retain on what is already a value contract for years to come? This doesn’t happen unless it was a bad contract.