It’s about time to make the move for Oilers general manager Ken Holland. The last few weeks feels like the climax to “The Good, The Bad and The Ugly” complete with the ‘wah wah wah’ sound that drove Ennio Morricone’s ridiculous and brilliant song as much as the whistler. It’s time for the reckoning for all involved. Hurry sundown, bring us a brand new day, get these kids along their way. I hope they find their place in the sun.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: How the Oilers finally found the key to five-on-five outscoring
- Lowetide: Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie turns a corner, now NHL-ready
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers are about to start a major makeover at right wing
- New DNB: How Oilers’ Stuart Skinner learned to be a pro — and an NHL All-Star
- Lowetide: Is Edmonton Oilers coach Jay Woodcroft saving another season?
- DNB: Why Ryan Nugent-Hopkins matters more to the Oilers now than ever before
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers ride high-flying offence to strong January finish
- DNB: Are the Oilers actually good again or are they simply benefitting from an easy schedule?
- Lowetide: Are the Oilers getting enough out of their AHL prospect pipeline?
- DNB: Oilers give a third-string university goalie the experience of his lifetime
- Lowetide: Oilers rookies Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway arriving right on time
- DNB: Oilers trade target: Scouting Blue Jackets defenceman Vladislav Gavrikov
- Lowetide: 3 trades that could help the Oilers this season and beyond
- New DNB: Oilers’ Zach Hyman subscriber Q&A
- Lowetide: The 5 biggest reasons for Edmonton Oilers’ recent turnaround
- DNB: What I’m hearing on Oilers’ trade deadline plans
- Lowetide: Is Oilers’ Vincent Desharnais an NHL defenceman?
- DNB: Oilers must act at the trade deadline
- Lowetide: Oilers midseason review of 2022-23 reasonable expectations
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022
MY LIST OF PREFERRED ACQUISITIONS ONE YEAR AGO AT THE DEADLINE
I had my list at last year’s deadline (here) and I’ll have one for this year’s, too. Who will be on it? Well, I’ve made my views clear and now it’s a matter of waiting to see who is left at the deadline. Here’s last year’s Lowetide list:
- G James Reimer. He isn’t sexy but he is consistent and durable. A Reimer-Koskinen tandem could work well for Edmonton.
- LD Carson Soucy. He’s an ideal fit for this team, might end up pushing Duncan Keith to third pair.
- RW Artturi Lehkonen. His availability is surprising but Edmonton should get him if available.
- LW Jake DeBrusk. Just signed to a two-year deal, that might make him attractive in Edmonton.
- LD Jacob Middleton. He isn’t sexy, but is effective.
- LD Calvin De Haan. He plays well against elites and has some filthy in his game.
- LW Andrew Cogliano. He would be a nice depth add for the bottom-six F.
- G Jaroslav Halak. I’ve always liked him, he’s a good goaltender.
- LD Brett Kulak. An under the radar option, he’s solid.
1987 DEADLINE STUNNING, SPECTACULAR AND HEARTBREAKING
- March 2, 1987—Oilers traded second-round pick (Link Gaetz) to the Minnesota North Stars for C Kent Nilsson. This was a fantastic pickup, Nilsson had a major impact on the team upon arrival. A ridiculous talent, he finally got with the right team. Magic man.
- March 6, 1987—Oilers trade D Lee Fogolin, Mark Napier and fourth-round pick (John Bradley) to the Buffalo Sabres for Normand Lacombe, a fourth-round pick (Peter Eriksson) and the rights to Wayne Van Dorp. Two of my favorites heading out, Lacombe a young prospect who the Oilers felt could provide them with that patented two-way grittiness that made up Slats best teams. Lacombe delivered, but was not here a long time. I was heart broken to see Fogolin leave, you ask anyone who followed that team and they’ll say the same. Heart and soul.
- March 10, 1987—Oilers trade L Raimo Summanen to the Vancouver Canucks for L Moe Lemay. This was acknowledgement that Summanen—once highly touted—was not going to have a big NHL career. I always liked him. Lemay was fun to watch.
MY LIST FOR 2023 DEADLINE
I understand reporting has some of these players not coming to Edmonton, and that’s fine. I’m going to list them because they have been rumoured to be available. As was the case last year, many on my list won’t move and others will move to American teams. If they’re available, I’m going to list them.
- LD Jakob Chychrun, Arizona Coyotes. I’d do it unless the ask includes Philip Broberg. If it’s the first-round pick in 2023, plus say Xavier Bourgault, I’d do it. Shoot the moon, Ken Holland!! If it’s the 2023 first and Dylan Holloway? I wonder if he makes that trade.
- LD Jake McCabe, Chicago Blackhawks. He’s available, under control, doesn’t cost the moon and can help the Oilers. The reasons to stay away include his no-trade list, his passing skills and pushing Philip Broberg to the pressbox. If the Oilers are going deep, eight blue will see action plenty through the postseason. McCabe is a strong option.
- RW Ivan Barbashev, St. Louis Blues. He can play RW and the Oilers need some help there now. Skilled, versatile, playing some of the best hockey of his career.
- RC Nick Bjugstad, Arizona Coyotes. He’s not the first guy I’d deal for on this list, but in some ways he is the best fit for Edmonton. He could push a good player to the pressbox, a good thing at the start of the playoffs.
- LC Lars Eller, Washington Capitals. The veteran isn’t going to deliver as much offensively as he has in the past, but he’s a smart two-way pivot who has utility. I would take Bjugstadt before Eller because of handedness, but he’s no consolation prize.
WHO COULD BE LEAVING?
- RW Jesse Puljujarvi. The Oilers have to offload the salary but I doubt Holland would be willing to send away a high pick for the transaction. He might get waived, maybe a deal happens afterward. However, the whole idea of trading JP is freeing up cap room, or at least addressing an area of need. Say, JP for Nick Bjugstadt. It’s possible he stays in Edmonton until summer.
- LW Warren Foegele. His job is being threatened by men like Klim Kostin and Dylan Holloway and his cap hit is big enough to make him a potential trade piece. He has value and is having a reasonable year, he could be heading out of town.
- The 2023 first- or second-round selection. I’m not absolutely certain the first goes, it could be the second. Holland has established a reputation for trading down in the first to add an extra pick on draft day. What would the second-round pick in a deep draft bring?
- RW Xavier Bourgault. He’s a first-round pick and is having a good season (56 percent goal differential at even strength according to Eric Rodgers fine work) and is on track to score 17 goals in 72 AHL games with Bakersfield. He could have enough value to be a piece in a bigger deal.
- LD Markus Niemelainen. It appears Philip Broberg has passed him, so the big Finn might be included in a deal at the deadline. Defense is a bad position to borrow from at the deadline, running out of blue is the worst.
- RW Raphael Lavoie. His spike since Christmas has to have him on Edmonton’s radar and it’s possible a team looking for a prospect over a pick would be interested in the big man.
CONDORS BLUE, BY THE NUMBERS
This is the shock of blue signed to NHL contracts by Edmonton, sorted by even-strength goal percentage. I think it’s fair to say Markus Niemelainen is the class of the group who remain with the Condors, and would be the first recall.
Phil Kemp and Mike Kesselring are the notable players who are pushing but haven’t yet made their NHL debuts. I’m not enough of a scout to say either man will have a career, and history suggests a cup of coffee is all they could hope for as an NHL career. Still, they are RH, young enough to push for several more years and Kesselring specifically is getting attention for his 12 goals (league-leading total among defensemen). Kemp is the better defender and that has value.
I always cheer for these young players, especially the ones from a long way back. One of the things that can inform us is the even-strength GF-GA total. Kemp is 30-25, the Condors are 70-71 when he is off the ice. Kesselring is 36-36, Condors are 64-60 when Kesselring is at rest. It’s half a season and there is some separation. I expect Kesselring is the more popular player in the organization and perhaps gets more interest from other teams. Both are worth tracking.
These are the AHL contracts plus a borrowed player and the separation here is massive. Alex Peters has played well, I don’t believe he’ll get an NHL contract but he’s earned something that’s for sure. Darien Kielb has also played well. If I’m Ken Holland, acquiring Max Gildon at this point is probably wise, he’s so damn handy in Bakersfield. Yanni Kaldis is struggling, and badly, I suspect his injuries from earlier in the year aren’t completely healed. Last season, his goal differential was 31-27, 53 percent. Something’s up, and I expect Bakersfield will do something in the months to come should Kaldis continue to perform at current levels.
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
At 10, through 2, TSN1260, we’ve got you covered ahead of a big week. Trade deadline with Darren Dreger, Oilers specifically with Daniel Nugent-Bowman at The Athletic, plus NBA and Super Bowl. It’s a wild week ahead! 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
Kevin Labanc?
Of the top 384 FW’s in 5v5 ice time (32 teams x 12 fw per) here are where qualified Oilers rank in 5v5 pts/60
#1 FW (1-32) Hyman, McDavid
#2 FW (33-64) Draisatl
———————
#4 Kostin
#5 Nuge, McLeod
———————-
#7 Ryan, Yamamoto
#8 Janmark
#9 Holloway, Foegele
———————-
#11 Puljujarvi
——————-
Did not qualify:
Kane #3 FW rate
Shore #12 FW
Since enjoying Vinny Desharnais’ cup (mug) of coffee, I’ve been scanning the 7th round picks of recent drafts…..WHO THE HELL is Jusso Parssinen, drafted 210 overall in 2019…has played 34 games this year and has 21 points!!!!!!!!!! It’s all Yamamoto’s fault
Looks like a guy who really benefitted from developing at home over the pandemic, came across the pond and popped soon thereafter.
Nice pick by NSH.
In a fair market, JP would bring a 3rd to a 4th as 3rd line defensive specialist with some potential upside, plus size and skating. It’s his QO that negatively affects his value, but still there’s a valuable rental there and maybe he finds his mojo in a new location.
In fact, if I’m Pujo and I bring less than a 3rd I fire my agent because I will never get a better outside opinion of my value and what I can expect to make on my next contract.
Can Holland squeeze a 3rd out for this player? Can he at least land a 4th?
the problem is the market will be a little weird for Pujo. Those that can use his services, the “buyer” teams, won’t like taking on the salary. And those with cap space won’t want a player too old for the new window they’re making.
Need a team with some space that thinks they’re close and just need some pieces to push them over the hump. Or a contender with
capLTIR space to burn.Pujo seems exactly the kind of player situation a Tampa or Vegas might go for.
I think you’re being a bit optimistic, happy to be wrong.
Gregor talked today about a by chance encounter at the airport that he had with JP, and their 45-60 minute discussion about things mostly non-hockey related. The biggest takeaways for me were how he said (paraphrasing) JP brought up on his own that he’s not going to sign here for less than his QO, and that he’s resigned himself to a fresh start elsewhere.
Remember the days when we (as a fanbase) were clamouring for Old Dutch to hold out for a better offer than just a second round pick?
I think at this point, we’re so far beyond sunk cost fallacy territory that we’re coming ’round the bend looking at it anew.
If he’s already in fresh start mode the dye is cast. you’re not getting the best version of the player in that scenario. How could you? Cut the cord Kenny
That’s a good point. We don’t want a team mate that isn’t all in for the grind that is the Stanley Cup playoffs.
Did he talk about this on his show yesterday? If so, do you know apx what time? I’ll be catching up on much of yesterday’s content as I work through today and would like to ensure I listen to that (I don’t listen to the full four hours but pick and choose segments on the pods).
First goal from Chychrun tonight came on the powerplay. He took the space given him from the right side of the blue line and stepped up into the slot and fired a wrister top corner. Had a little more flutter than the second one, which was a laser beam.
He also saved a puck from going in on the goal line earlier in the game.
I still don’t want to pay his price tag. 😉 Especially for a guy who is not going to get much powerplay time and whose acq cost is in part dependent on his powerplay talent.
He’s a very good offensive player, but we knew that already. Unfortunately it’s hard to get a read on him defensively when his coaches insist on sheltering him as they did last night.
Kaprizov’s TOI vs AZ defensemen:
Nemeth: 6:07
Moser: 5:52
Stetcher: 5:21
Valimaki: 4:05
Chychrun: 3:43
Brown: 3:28
#WeAlreadyHaveBarrie!
Yotes hang on to beat the Wild 3-2. Every small favour counts.
Ducks lost to the stars in shootout and the Dys to the Devs in OT.
Chychrun with his second of the night. Hard wrister over the glove from the left face off circle
One of these days Markstrom throwing a tantrum culminating with him breaking his stick with shrapnel flying everywhere is going to catch someone in the throat.
That one ref behind the net was close.
I don’t blame the player, but it looks bush league…the league should dis-incentivize stick smashing with a max fine. Thoughts? up or down vote…
Phlegms another LOSER point.
And the Rags leave the Flames with nothing more than the loser point. Insane finish in OT was a fitting coda to an insane game.
Some Calgary media were saying that Markstrom had to perform well tonight or be relegated to a lower ratio of starts going forward, but you can’t hang this loss on him.
Trocheck trying to gift the Flames the two points.
Seth Griffith up to four goals in the AHL all-star game(s).
@#$&%^%#$$#^%*(Q#~^^ing Flames…
What a joke N.H.L should be ashamed.
What happened?
Flames obvious kicked in Goal allowed to stand.
Bettman point due to a poor call
My thoughts are pretty much in line with Pouzar’s. The solution to 2LD is Broberg and all you need is a bit of patience. By the end of this season he may be able to start taking some of Kulak’s minutes – so why burn all those assets for a few weeks. I like Kulak as a 4-5 guy who can move up for a short time when injuries hit the top 4. The hole is 1RD as Ceci is over his head with the constant hard minutes. He does okay and does his best – but he’s better suited to 2RD. Karlsson is the high end solution and Schenn is a low end stop gap. Nothing on LD appeals when a few more months of development time fixes it.
Same with the forwards and right shot bottom 6 forwards. A good faceoff guy would help (Toews is amazing or ROR) and Bjugstad is a low end cheaper add. You keep JP because his contract is up this summer and we need the flexibility. You certainly don’t spend assets to move him. One of Fog or Yamo has to leave in the next few weeks.
And Breadeater with a greasy skate goal under review for kicking
This game has had everything.
Good goal.
MSG crew not happy.
Beautiful hit on kadri from Trouba. Dube comes in to defend and gets the extra 2 and 10-minute misconduct. It is a shame that Trouba has to defend himself and is off the ice for 5. At least phlegms made to pay with a goal against. Go NYR
I like the intermission panel: “people are going to be looking to Lucic to do something”.
Story of Flames Fans lives.
Is Lucic the most overrated “deterrent” in the league?
What a joke. I saw that too and thought only on phlegm broadcast would they say crap like that. A goon going after a skilled player.
Trouba created a work of art.
kadri hit from behind should have got him at the very least a boarding call.
One of three magnificent hits by Trouba tonight. Shoulder right in the middle of the chest. Textbook.
He would look in Oiler silks
Interesting that the Rangers went with Halak against the Flames. It is not like Shesterkin is fatigued from the 10 minutes he played at the All Star Game on Saturday afternoon. His last regular game was Jan 25. Their next game is in on Wednesday at home against the Canucks.
Probably felt that even though the Flames are ahead in the standings and shoot a lot, they aren’t as dangerous at actually scoring as the Canucks. Flames have the second worst shooting % all situations, in the league.
This Rangers-Flames game has been wild. Mika makes it 3-2 on the PP after many shenanigans.
Gallant must really dislike Sutter his boys are schooling them on the art of huge legal hits. The Rangers laid 3 of the best hits of the year on Sutters gang so far.
Wow. Goals 17 and 18 for Filip Chytil.
He’s on a real Chyter!
MSG takes some deep dives between periods. They showed highlights from everywhere including the recent Knights game with a natural hattrick and the third goal coming on a lacrosse play. They also showed an ECHL goalie make an incredible scorpion save. It’s nice to see these things happening in Maintown, USA.
Gerard Gallant knows how to get the most out of his player strengths.
This first period is going to end tomorrow at this rate.
Loooch….
Jack Hughes now with 16 goal in his last 15 games.
It seems the kid can play hockey.
Hughes with his 35th,
At his current pace, he could very well hit 50.
The New Jersey Devils are politely asking you to leave them alone.
Harper hair lip kiss of death lol!
Dammit, Flames
3 shots on goal, one goal against – nice to see Markstrom is back to the same form.
Nugent Bowman confirms that Yamamoto is travelling with the team. Evander Kane aside, injured players very rarely travel with the team if they are not likely to play on the trip. Yamamoto would only be activated for Sunday’s game.
I was going to post about the impact of d playing for bad teams. Lacking much time at the moment, this is the first post of the thread.
Two examples, of course, are Keith (Chicago to Edmonton) and Hampus Lindholm (Anaheim to Boston).
Keith went from a DFF of 44.5% against elites CTOI%22 to 45.2% CTOI% 29.7; the year prior Keith was DFF 47.8 CTOI%33.
The CTOI% numbers were weird in the Covid division.
Lindholm went from DFF 48.8 CTOI% 38.5 to 48.9 CTOI% 33.9
Pretty weird how the DFF% numbers didn’t change with being on better teams, no?
For Evolving hockey 1-year ratings
Lindholm on Anaheim: 54-56-64
Lindholm on Boston: 95-89-94
Keith on Chicago: 1-68-1
Keith on Oilers: 43-43-61
Burns saw a spike in DFF numbers going from San Jose to Carolina.
DFF Elite – 44.9% to DFF 56%
Burns EH numbers went from 74-79-44 to 84-87-63
Ethan Bear
Edmonton: DFF 59.0% // 59-25-75
Carolina: DFF 50.4% // 44-67-30
Vancouver: DFF 49.5% // 70-57-74
Ryan, can you kindly explain the Evolving Hockey stats XX-YY-ZZ?
Overall percentile (including special teams) — Offensive percentile (5v5) – Defensive percentile (5v5)
Thanks.
Everyone likes to look at teams that won it all and copy their moves. Well Tampa paid extra for Coleman because he had an extra cost controlled year. They paid extra for Goodrow because of an extra cost controlled year, they paid extra for Hagel for the extra 2 controlled years.
Hagel is lighting it up this year but even so Chychrun is better/more impactful than all 3 of those players and he is a value deal for 2 more years.
Chychrun is 27th in the league in Even Strength Points (ESP) and if you adjusted him to play the full Arizona schedule (50 games instead of 34) he would be 5th. All while passing to Keller & Schmaltz as their top players. Chychrun could very likely be the best defender on the Oilers mean you upgrade every single pairing instead of just the third or even 2nd.
I understand Hollands hesitation if its involving Holloway or Broberg (Id still have time but avoiding those 2 would be huge) but there is no better dman available except maybe Karlson who makes almost 3 times as much.
Chychrun is extremely cap efficient, strengthens the defense, and is a medium term solution.
If youre going to overpay a first and third for Gavrikov for one playoff run why not add another first and a b-tier prospect or more for 3 runs? 2 of Kulak, Pulju, Yams, Foegel makes enough room for Chychrun and another 1 mill replacement
I just want to say, because LT referenced him above, but The Missing Link was one fearsome individual. Holy hell.
I think he still lives in Edmonton. Hopefully he is doing okay.
Megna for a 4th was a tidy piece of business for the Krakheads. That’s a deal I could’ve got behind, if it was Holland pulling the trigger.
What role would you see him filling on the Oilers – LD #8 insurance ahead of Ryan Murray?
Yep, depth defender who can step in if Broberg is struggling or allow Bro to play the other point if the RHS is struggling.
I think next year is the year where the team is all-in and ideally you’d want any missing pieces to be acquired in the off-season. Not to say they aren’t trying to make an SCF run this year, I’m sure the org is, but getting there will be a major step by itself.
Would he be an upgrade anywhere on the left side of our D?
I know he’s played tough comp with Karlason and, while I can’t speak to the eye test on his play, I think I heard he’s 1-11 goals without Karlason for 8%.
Who would he play over????
Munny 2.0: “Yep, depth defender who can step in if Broberg is struggling or allow Bro to play the other point if the RHS is struggling.”
That quote was not part of the original post that I responded to.
In the interim, do we expose him to waivers and assign him or send Deharnais down?
For me, I’d rather save the 3rd rounder (Oilers don’t have a fourth this year), not commit to a contract for next season, and perhaps use that acquisition currency elsewhere.
I know the PDO is crazy low but 1-11 goals w/o Karlsson – a bad team but still.
Just pointing out that Munny had already answered your question at the time of your post.
It would be a bit pointless to dissect a trade that didn’t happen too carefully, but I’d imagine Desharnais would have headed back to Bakersfield to make room.
And you know the 1-11 goals isn’t representative of the player. Megna has managed to successfully play 1LD on the Sharks. Yes, he’s been a complement to Karlsson, but he’s clearly still playing defense and contributing something to the pair.
Objecting to his contract next season makes no sense either. His contract is identical AAV Desharnais and Niemalainen’s ($762k for 2 yrs). A 4th round pick for what’s at worst your 7th D, who you know can move up the lineup if needed, seems pretty reasonable to me.
I don’t see this player as an upgrade on our current group and, frankly, adding him and then assigning Deharnais may actually weaken the group. I said “may” – I don’t know if it would but its not like this player is a yearly established NHL d-man. He spent time last season in the AHL and, in his NHL time got killed against elite and mids and only was above water vs. grits.
If Vinny hadn’t stopped up over the lsat 8 games, sure, but I don’t see the need for that player. I can get on board with a depth d-man but I don’t think he would be the guy, not for the price.
Yeah I don’t agree he’s not an upgrade. He’s played 90+ games over this season and last. He played more than 19 min a night both years. He was over 50% shots and xGoals both years. He didn’t play much with Karlsson last season and his GF% was 47% (basically even with team). He seems to me like a very reasonable depth add for a 4th round pick, and is on the best contract you could possibly ask for.
Probably takes the Kraken out of the market for Chychrun, seeing as how their LD now has:
Oleksiak – Dunn – Soucy – Megna.
Add in Larsson and Schultz on the right side, and there’s no room at the inn for JC.
Were the Kraken in the market for Chychrun?
Kraken are said to be in need of a star or two. Somebody with X-factor. Their assets, if they spend big, are more likely to go for that name guy.
Edit: (and more likely a F because of that)
Shane Wright is on the way next season.
He and Matty Beniers will be their stars.
— This is the first year, after the all-star break, that if the Oil won the cup it wouldn’t be a “surprise” since I was a kid…. A decent trade and they be cooking with fire : they know it, Holland knows it, the league knows it.
— speaking of cooking: hosting Super Bowl party for first time since B.C. (Before co$id). I’ve got Ribs and wings hoagies and nachos all home made/BBQ. Anyone have an over the top Super Bowl menu go-to?
Chili!
— Ha! You got a recipe? By the way see you this time for real in Miami for a game. I’ll email you but there Feb21st for a month : with a few back and forths for me while the younger kids stay there. Going to hopefully watch Canada in the World Baseball Classic as well if they get into the 2nd round
Brown the ground beef, drain it. Add Worchester sauce, pepper, chili powder, BBQ sauce, paprika and a small amount of cayenne. Chop up onion, add, chop up green pepper add. Add large can of baked beans, two large cans of red kidney beans, chopped jalapeño, can of stewed tomatoes. Bag of frozen corn. I add a lot of chili powder.
I will be around but my schedule is much tougher now. But a 9pm 10pm game will work!
LT:
Part of the reluctance to trade for Chychrun is the implications beyond this season for the impact on the Cap, the prospect pool, and specifically on the left side D Kulak and Broberg.
Doesn’t the calculus change if you can flip Chychrun at the draft to acquire a replacement 1st round pick?
If the OIlers acquired Chychrun or McCabe, they would trade Barrie. Desharnais needs a spot, and Kulak and Broberg are capable on the right side.
McDonagh did not block Sergachev in Tampa. Seragacev killed the soft minutes on the 3rd pair, or played right side in the top 4. Broberg is also capable of this.for the two additional years Chychrun/McCabe would be around.
I am late to Desharnais discourse. Is there a reason why he needs a spot? I appreciate him being #7D means Barrie doesn’t PK. His numbers (so far) look poor otherwise.
You continue to state this opinion as a fact but never engage with those that respond and are looking to discuss other viewpoints on this.
It seems very odd that Ken Holland would trade a very respected young vet that is still in his prime and contributing to the team on and off the ice (Barrie) to open up a spot for a 26-year old rookie that has played 8 games (zero playoff games), started 70 out of 114 shifts on the fly, played less than 10 minutes against elite players and never taken a regular shift on a pairing in an NHL game.
I’m not trying to criticize Deharnais, I love what he has brought in his limited and sheltered role but, at this point, its a wild proposition (in my opinion) to think that Holland would look to move Barrie on the premise of Deharnais needing a spot.
Maybe we get there – we aren’t close to there.
Desharnais will have 30 some regular season games and 20 playoffs games by the summer, and likely top man on the ladder on the right side of the D.
Summer will be time to choose between Barrie and Bouchard, if not sooner.
Hi might have those games and, sure, I guess he might be top RD on the ladder (although that sounds wildly unreasonable to project) but, as of now, he has 8 regular season games and zero playoff games and has never taken a standard pairing shift in the NHL but only been spotted, less than 10 minutes in his career against elites at 5 on 5, 2/3 of his shifts on the fly, etc.
There really is very little substance to base your projection/opinion on – at least that I can see.
I do thank you for responding and appreciate it but don’t see any teeth to the position – its simply “this guy is going to be great” based off of, well, nothing stated.
I think Chychrun COULD be the veteran who allows Broberg to come along more slowly over the next couple of years. I’d move Kulak in the summer.
Is chychrun one of the most likely available upgrades on 2 LHD?
Yes.
Would it be nice to test drive a possible beyond 1 run solution for LHD?
Yes
Would chychrun be an asset you could subsequently move in offseason and recover a significant amount of acquisition cost, if decided to reconfigure defence differently?
Yes.
It’s not a question of Would I deal for him it’s a question of
-What cost would it be worth considering
Thanks. That’s basically the discussion I was making a rather limp attempt to generate.
Yeah I was just reinforcing what you were throwing out there. I’ve seen seen too much vapid “chychrun sucks” level wave offs. Which makes zero sense.
“Uhm pretty sure you’d be quite pleased with his results on 2nd pairing here bud…I could see reason for higher resistance if that contract was higher but what exactly do you think might be available around his price on UFA level next couple years?”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=enuOArEfqGo
Theme song to the Good, the Bad and the Ugly performed by the Danish National Symphony Orchestra
Superb!! Haunting music!
I have a lot of Morricone on my hard drive. It’s all good.
This is it.
Finally a real, very real possibility of Edmonton winning it all. This has to sink in. There is no choice but to acquire a player who is more than depth, but a real contributor.
On a somewhat related note, The guys I feel for are those that worked hard and get sent off a contending team at the deadline. I felt for SamGagner.
I won’t feel the same for Jesse. He really did try to succeed in my opinion, however his desire to be off the team makes it a simple choice to move him.
Marty Reasoner
Seravalli has written profiles on a lot of the D (and Fs for that matter) who we’ve been discussing as potential trade targets. I’ve found the profiles and scouting reports really useful for some of the players I haven’t seen too much of.
I figured I’d compile a list of his ‘Archetype and Ideal Role’ for the Dmen he’s looked at as a point of comparison for them. He appears to be a difficult marker pretty much across the board.
Seravalli’s Archetype and Ideal Role
Karlsson: Puck Mover, Top Pair
Ekholm: Defensive Defenseman, Middle Pair
Chychrun: Power Play Specialist, Middle Pair
Dumba: Defensive Defenseman, 2nd Pair
Gavrikov: Shutdown Defenseman, Middle/Third Pair
Gostisbehre: Puck Mover, Third Pair
McCabe: Defensive Defenseman, 3rd Pair / 1st Unit Penalty Kill
Schenn: Shutdown Defenseman, 3rd Pair
Mikkola: Depth Defenseman. 3rd pair, 2nd unit penalty kill
Dmen on his trade board with no profile (yet): Klingberg, Edmundson, Seeler, Megna, Walker/Roy
The trade board and links to those listed can be found here: https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/sharks-timo-meier-is-the-new-no-1-on-daily-faceoffs-trade-targets-board
Olli Maatta also, who I have my eyes on., wonder if the acquisition cost for Maatta would be lower than Gavrikov? Seems unlikely, but then CBJ is basing their pricing off the Savard experience last year. And since the Chiarot trade blew up in FLA’s face, I think a 1st and a 3rd might be a tough repeat.
Yes, odd he doesn’t make the trade board. I’m pretty sure Maatta will cost less than Gavrikov, though he is definitely a depth defenseman at this stage. He hasn’t played 19 minutes a night since 15-16.
Janmark wasn’t on the ice yesterday or today and he is to join the team in Detroit tomorrow. Reason stated is “personal reasons” – given we know he went back to Europe for the break, I think that’s a broad use of the term “personal reasons”.
For me, given he’s missed both practices before the first game (and will only have the one morning f skate, if he’s even there for that), he should be the scratch over bothJesse and Foegele in Detroit.
Woody stated Janmark is already in Detroit and was on the ice there for a skate today. He will be with the team for the morning skate. He will make his roster decision based on the best information available to him at the time he sets the roster and not before.
And how do you know him needing an extra day or two in Europe wasn’t due to some true “personal reasons”?
I just listened to Woody’s avail regarding him getting to Detroit last night and skating today.
I don’t “know” anything about Janmark’s life or what’s going on. What I do know is that when I read 5 days ago or so that he was heading to Europe for the break, I thought that was aggressive and dealing with a 5-9 hours time change (depending on where in N. America one is) plus a 7-9 hour flight (or more) twice, is not conducive to being as ready as possible for game 51 in Detroit.
I don’t “know” anything except that I can reasonably presume why the player that went to Europe is the one that isn’t back with the team until Tuesday (when the rest of the team was back together on Sunday) and missed two practices.
Just presumptions and speculation – never implied any additional knowledge.
Perhaps he was heading back to Europe at the first opportunity due to an on-going personal matter, I don’t know.
You lost me and probably most others at “reasonably”.
Concerning Janmark news feel free to reach out to DNB or Rishaug or Spec or Stauff or Wilkins or Gregor. I’ve been told these guys are all publicly available.
How does that even make sense in this context – you were specifically questioning the media and what they were reporting on a player and his status.
I posted my thoughts on the Janmark not being with the team on time and the official word from the organization – I’m not looking for anything else from the media on this.
Do you see a difference? A MASSIVE difference?
As an aside, I have reached out to one of the listed media many times on various Oilers related matters and have received honest and open responses most of the time.
Woodcroft said in his availability yesterday that Janmark “had a family issue” and would join the team in Detroit.
It’s great to see the 5v5 sorted finally. I still feel the team struggles when put under pressure by organized teams that can skate, especially
There were some beauty tire fires last playoffs, Connor and Leon going bonkers offset it
According to Natural Stat this happened at 5v5:
GF% 50.52
CF% 49.05
FF% 48.23
SF% 47.48
This matches what I felt we were seeing. They were scoring but often not carrying play and getting pinned frequently
To me this was largely about the weakish and unbalanced D group. So if he gets a D it should be one that helps where they’re weakest, and it’s not offence. It’s breaking cycles and defending when Bouch or Barrie are on
However if that player struggles with the puck it’s moot. Is there a defensively strong D that can help breakout also? That’s what they need, and it doesn’t seem Chychrun has that as a strength according to Frank
This is a great observation from last year. And a good reminder we need somebody substantial back there.
Bo Horvat represented the Fishsticks at the ASG.
I wonder whether it’s the first time a player has represented a team he had yet to play a regular game for.
He represented the Pacific at the game, the Isles at the skills competition. The NHL did the same with Pumpernickel, Kudelski, Ozolinsh, Scott… they played for the division they were elected from.
I come today with a heavy heart as i feel very remiss.
i have chastised colin chaulk for his treatment of the prospects historically and it appears i may have spoken out of turn.
As of late he has been rewarding key players such as kesselring, lavoie, tullio, savoie and others with more ice time and top 9 roles. It can also be said that these players are responding well and improving in those roles, although i would like to see more from bourgault.
Perhaps the organization communicated better what they were looking to achieve and provided some job security so his win/loss record was less of a concern and he could focus more on development.
anyhow, kudos to him and i will be greatful for the work he is doing until further notice!
Perhaps Chaulk runs his team as a meritocracy as well. Players playing the best, ie. making the most all around contributions to the team, get the additional ice time. While he has the job to develop players for the NHL team, those players are perhaps better served if they can actually outperform an AHL veteran before being given more ice time. People complain about certain players being “gifted ice time” at the NHL level. The same would be true in the AHL, that a 20 year old who is a higher draft pick and key prospect still has to earn the opportunity to play on the top line and the PP at the AHL level.
If Bourgault or Lavoie weren’t beating out Malone and Griffith on merit (and merit includes being able to play the game the way the coach asks you to play) then they don’t get more ice time. The players have to be motivated to learn and play better to first move up the line up, then to jump to the big club. That is probably more of what is happening now with these younger players rather than Chaulk being advised to play them more.
The meritocracy position seems accurate from here. If he was just trying to win you’d think he’d have Carter Savoie on PP1 from the get-go. Pretty sure that kid has the best shot on the team.
It could also be about protecting prospects and giving them ice time where they can excel. No different than the NHL, you can’t just throw Broberg on the first pair because that’s his ceiling.
These are kids playing against men. Men that have toiled in the minors for years as well, and like nothing better than lighting up an NHL top prospect, whether that’s physically or on the scoresheet.
Chaulk’s job is to put them into a position to succeed and I don’t think just gifting them more ice time will always achieve that.
This is a very solid post and is of similar substance as I have posted over the last few weeks. I too “questioned” Chaulk’s deployment in many cases in the first few months of the season but have had to give Chaulk credit for some youth development, or at least open the door to the possibility that his deployment (and other coaching methods) have contributed positively.
Lavoie is the current story in this regard and its been ALOT of tough love – from ice time cut, to healthy scratched, to benching, to express heated “conversations” on the bench.
Maybe Chaulk knew the type of “encouragement” this player needed.
Its not even about Lavoie’s PPG over 20 games – his entire 200-foot game has been transformed to my eye.
I almost went back to find where I at least chose to reserve judgement as I haven’t personally watched enough AHL games nor am intimately aware if some players might be banged up.in mix to repost it.
I respected chaulk being questioned but had to start laughing when the questioning was followed by comments rushing to light torches who clearly appeared to have as little nuance of situation as I did…I should be used to it but it still surprises me and I’ve always hated it.
Great read on Chycrun here:
https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/buy-or-beware-assessing-jakob-chychruns-trade-value
This part was a little concerning:
“One thing opposing teams comment on is Chychrun’s inability to transport pucks out of danger. He struggles to make plays under pressure. Chychrun is known to rim the puck around the boards or throw away possession when he fails to see through the forecheck to find strong outlet passes.”
I am not sure it is that concerning. The frequency of these types of plays is likely the result of playing on a terrible team that frequently gets hemmed in their own zone.
That’s what they pay the pro scouts the big bucks for. According to insiders, the team isn’t enthused about Chychrun being the guy. Perhaps they see the same issues.
Not the first to post this info during the break. Just arranging it to show the parity within and across the WC divisions.
WC Bettman 500 leaderboard
(ties sorted by pts%)
+15 Dallas C1
+14 Seattle P1
+13 Winnipeg C2
+11 Vegas P2
+10 Minnesota C3
+10 Edmonton P3
+10 Los Angeles WC1
+9 Colorado WC2
+7 Calgary TEETTIME1
+6 Nashville TEETIME2
A Vegas – Edm first round at the moment
Current Odds:
https://www.oddsshark.com/nhl/stanley-cup-futures
Boston and Colorado heavy favourites to meet in the final.
Weird. I did not realize this thread was discussing Stanley Cup betting odds.
To the extent we want to be honest, MoneyPuck has the Oilers/Canes as the heavy favourite for cup final…..
https://moneypuck.com/predictions.htm
HH types ‘current odds’ to a link that’s dated January 11th…
Never was a detail kinda guy……..
The devil’s in the likely conscious omitting of details
If the pairing of Broberg – Bouchard contunies to saw off the “weaker” competition; it would be something because i seem to feel like we used to allow weak goals from what is known or was known as “soft parade”
Saw off? Broberg-Bouchard are 11-5 goals since December 31st. They’re killing the soft parade.
So good to see.
There’s what we want; There’s what LT wants; And then there’s Ken Holland.
So I ask you, what does Ken Holland want?
These were the odds of the last 5 teams to win The Cup:
2021-22 Colorado Avalanche+325
2020-21Tampa Bay Lightning+800
2019-20Tampa Bay Lightning+650
2018-19St. Louis Blues+1,250
2017-18Washington Capitals+1,225
Today the Edmonton Oilers sit at +1800
What would it take to improve their odds to +1200 range?
I’m certain Mr. Holland has been trying hard to get the name Jakob Chychrun out of his mind; But as in turns out “There’s nothing he can say to make him go away.”
In order to get our odds of winning in line with recent history, I think it would take all of Jakob Chychrun 2LD (1RD?) AND Jonathan Toews 3C.(2RW?)
I love the PP possibilities
PP1
Hyman McDavid Draisaitl
Nuge Barrie
PP2
Kane Toews Yamamoto
Chychrun Bouchard
Is Ken Holland prepared to go all in?
I believe he is.
Question for you LT; Is Matvei Petrov not a potential trade chip? Reid Schaefer?
I really believe Chychrun is our play here…the defence would definitely have a more balanced look and feel
Nurse/Bouchard
Chychrun/Ceci
Kulak/Barrie
Broberg/Desharnais
It seems so wasteful to use a 1st pick on any other player…getting Chychrun with such a great cap hit for two more seasons is the play for “win now” and no one would blame Holland for giving up what is needed to accomplish this
Are those odds at the beginning of the playoffs or like we are 32 games left in the season?
https://www.oddsshark.com/nhl/stanley-cup-futures
Why trade Puli instead of Yamo? He is bigger,stronger,and better defensively.Same cap numbers.
Yamamoto is productive when healthy, the bottom has fallen out of JP’s game this year. You say he’s better defensively but JP’s five-on-five goal share is 38 percent and he’s scoring 0.95 pts-60.
KY has a 63 percent goal share and is scoring 1.54 pts-60.
I’m a fan of Puljujarvi and hope he is sent to a good spot for him, but on a team when basically all the forwards are 50+ percent goal share, his numbers are beyond poor.
agree; I think puljajarvi wants out so badly ha can taste it
We are losing JP next year regardless. We won’t lose Yama next year.
I do not love the 2023 deadline list.
Chychrun is a good target if the price is right.
McCabe is quite expensive with a multi-year contract. He is a hard player to evaluate on such a bad team. Acquiring McCabe limits Holland going forward.
As others have pointed out, Barbashev is a ghost in the playoffs.
Bjugstad is a fine option, except (I think I saw it in a munny post) he cannot win faceoffs. It is not clear how he helps an area of need. I.e., the Oilers could use a depth RHC to take pressure off Ryan.
I like adding Lafferty
You spelled that wrong. Its Rafferty….Brogan Rafferty.
Agreed, the list above is underwhelming to say the least. I’d include names like O’Reilly, Acciari, Gostisbehere, Toews, Provorov, Lafferty, Seeler and Walman.
That is correct , sir, Bjugstad bites in the FO circle.
You gotta stop ranking options based on their sex appeal. We need hockey players, not actors auditioning for a rom-com 😉
I am ok with keeping JP all year. But do we need Yamo in IR all season to make that cap work?
Yes. If Yamamoto comes on the roster, cap room will be required.
Yamo has practiced fully a few times now and all intel leads to him being activated for next Sunday.
Things could certainly take a turn but it doesn’t sound like keeping him on the shelf for the rest of the year will be an option.
As an aside, the player himself seems quite “bummed” by having to wait until February 12 due to being placed on LTIR. I’m not positive he’s not healthy to play as we type.
From all the verbal we’ve been getting I’d put the odds of Yams being on LTIR beyond his due date at less than 10%. IT could very well be less than 1%. The odds of being out for the entire remainder of the season would be an order of magnitude lower.
It seems a strange, high-risk, and very unlikely scenario LT is betting on here to grease his cap machinations. Not sure why.
We also now know that Yamamoto is going on the 4-game road trip with the team.
I’m starting to become more confidant that he’d be playing tomorrow in Detroit if he was eligible to come off LTIR – I think he’s healthy to play.
Nice write-ups about Kesselring, Kemp, Tullio, Lavoie, Savoie, and Bourgault.
I wonder which of them the Coyotes are interested in?
Does the Megna acquisition really mean they might move this guy – will Francis buy and sell at the same time? Seems odd but, I guess maybe? Intriguing.
As far as upgrades, I think we can all agree that one more top 4 d-man, a legit top 4 d-man, on the left side would really help solidify.
Kulak would get pushed down and he would fight with Broberg for the 3LD role and the other in the 7D spot. Yes, this pushes Vinny out to start but, of course, a team will need 8D plus in a playoff run. Any trade of a 2LD with term requires Kulak out either now or this off-season. Kulak down to 3LC at $2.75MM when passed by Broberg is something the cap structure can handle
Its a hard trade to make for me. “All in” is the phrase used but, for me, its “win now” and that includes not just this year but the next 2-3 and even the next 6-8 as I think we’ll see Drai and McDavid re-sign.
The team needs to be cognizant of the cap structure going forward and that Broberg will highly likely be 2LD ready in the next 2-12 months. For this year’s playoff run, I’d love a rental 2LD but there aren’t any rental 2LD’s out there. Gavrikov is not a lock it down 2LD and the upgrade there seems marginal and not worth the price. All the other guys come with term and, frankly, except for Chychrun, will be passed by Broberg in the next little while so will be a $4MM plus 3LD (McCabe, etc.).
Chychrun is the only 2LD that moves the needle but the price is likely too high – Broberg is not available in that deal (not with other high end futures) as Broberg is the 3LD and 2LD cover and the future when Chychrun is UFA in 2-years.
I’d like to add McCabe but as a rental – two more years at $4MM makes this acquisition less than idea. I think he’s passed by Broberg in short order and that extras $1.25MM over Kulak to play 3LD is far from ideal
I’m not sure they can find that 2LD and they may check down to a Schenn to add some truculence, depth and experience at the bottom of the order. As of now, he’d compete with
Deharnais for 7D and, while we all love Vinny, if we are being honest, Schenn is the better and more established player. Vinny has been great but super sheltered – he’s played 9 minutes vs. elites in his NHL career. He’s start 70 of 113 shifts on the fly, etc., etc.
Lets not forget, Bouch has like 150 NHL games and 16 playoff games. Broberg has less than 50 NHL games and one playoff game. Deharnais as 8 NHL games and 0 playoff games – Holland will add some established depth back there.
I would throw out renting Orlov but I don’t see the Caps selling.
Does the Megna acquisition mean that Kraken will move Soucey? Buy and sell at the same time? Can’t see it.
To be clear, Soucey is on LT’s 2022 deadline list. Soucey is NOT on LT’s 2023 deadline list.
I understand that but there has been talk since yesterday that the Kraken could move Soucey now that they’ve acquired Magna (and the likes of Seravelli speculated over the last few weeks that, even though Seattle are a playoff team, they may still move Soucey if they don’t think they can re-sign him – they don’t want to bleed the asset).