The Edmonton Oilers have enjoyed effective drafts this century, some of the most impressive players coming from the depths of the selection process. Ethan Bear was a fifth round selection, John Marino a sixth, Kyle Brodziak a seventh. It’s that kind of drafting acumen married to luck that will be required for the Oilers this season. The club is in dire straits in procurement, with just four picks a year ago (one since traded) and four selections this year. Light a candle and pray to any God who’ll listen.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: How the Oilers may handle a change in management
- Lowetide: Will the Oilers draft (and keep) a world class agitator in 2023?
- DNB: The Oilers missed a true Stanley Cup chance this year and the contention clock is ticking
- Lowetide: Can Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie make the team in 2023-24?
- DNB: Oilers 2022-23 predictions revisited
- Lowetide: 10 Edmonton Oilers free-agent targets for this summer
- DNB: Oilers offseason priorities: A 10-step plan for ensuring success next season
- Lowetide: 7 ways the Oilers can create cap room for 2023-24
- Lowetide: Why Oilers winger Klim Kostin could be a key to Oilers summer
- DNB: How the Oilers roster could soon look different
- DNB: Oilers GM Ken Holland focused on ‘unfinished business’ entering final year of his contract
- Lowetide: How Oilers GM Ken Holland built the team and the cost to get this far
- DNB: Oilers digest season that was, know next year is ‘Stanley Cup or it’s a failure’
- Lowetide: Are Oilers prospects’ minor league stats an indication of future NHL success?
- Lowetide: Identifying a 2023 NHL Draft sleeper prospect for the Oilers
- Lowetide: Stock up or down for every Oilers prospect in the system
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022
THE 2023 DRAFT AND THE LIST BELOW
My list is math based, relies on multiple resources and is designed to push the idea that drafting skill above any other trait is the best mousetrap. Any similarity between my list and all other lists is coincidence. My list doesn’t scout the players, it reads the tea leaves math gives us.
I didn’t specifically pay attention to anyone’s list during the process, and one of the reasons I’m publishing today is Red Line Report will be ordered by me this week and my tradition is to have the list complete before I read the annual ranking from them.
Adam Sherren was especially helpful with the QMJHL players this season, I didn’t sample other sites and relied heavily on Central Scouting’s list as the draft pool. If I missed it, so did Central.
If I were advising Ken Holland and Tyler Wright, the recommendation would be dealing the second-round pick for two later ones, and then doing it again. It’s a weird draft, strong early, a long period with different shades of grey, some overagers who will clog up lists, and then some great draft and follow types. The list you see here today will not change.
LOWETIDE TOP 125 FOR 2023
- RC Connor Bedard, Regina Pats (WHL). Incredible talent, elite offense. Best since McDavid?
- LC Adam Fantilli, Michigan (Big-10). He’s 6.03, 192 and a complete player.
- RC Will Smith, US Natl Development Team (USHL). Impact offense, future star.
- LC Leo Carlsson, Orebro (SHL). Mature center with terrific skills and good size (6.03, 195).
- RW Matvey Michkov, St. Petersburg (KHL). There’s just too much to keep him outside the top five.
- RW Colby Barlow, Owen Sound Attack (OHL). 6.01, 195. Speed, great shot, throwback type. 36
- LW Zachary Benson, Winnipeg Ice (WHL). 5.10, 160, possesses great hands and is highly creative.
- RW Gabriel Perreault, US Natl Development Team (USHL). Incredible skill.
- RW Eduard Sale, Brno (Czechia). Eye-popping stats in junior give his resume a Miro Satan feel.
- RD Axel Sandin-Pellikka, Skelleftea AIK (SHL). Speed and has skill, moving up lists.
I moved Michkov up because the reason I was punishing him (contract) has nothing to do with math. I’m not predicting the draft, I’m trying to predict the best players in the draft. Thanks for the reminder, Arthur Kaliyev. Anyway, these are quality players, mostly forwards and many wingers. That may mean some of the centers and blue from 11-20 slide up into the top-10 overall.
- 11. LC Oliver Moore, US Natl Development Team (USHL). Burner, skilled, fine passer.
- 12. RW Otto Stenberg, Frolunda (J20 Swe). Owns a complete skill set.
- 13. LW Andrew Cristall, Kelowna Rockets (WHL). 5’10, brilliant offense, skating a concern.
- 14. LC Dalibor Dvorsky, AIK (Allsvenskan). Two-way center with impressive skill.
- 15. RD Tom Wallinder, Rogle (J20 Swe). Smart, mobile defender, fine passer.
- 16. LW Quentin Musty, Subdury Wolves (OHL). PF with great numbers, speed. Playmaker.
- 17. LC Riley Heidt, Prince George Cougars (WHL). Strong skater, a little undersized, productive.
- 18. RW Ryan Leonard, US Natl Development Team (USHL). Good skater, great shot, agitator.
- 19. RC Braydon Yager, Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL). Great skater, dangerous pivot who can score.
- 20. RC Calum Ritchie, Oshawa Generals (OHL). Good skater with size and skill.
This is another strong group of wingers, with a couple of centers and a defenseman thrown in. The draft won’t go like this, but the tremendous group of skill forwards this year is going to be tantalizing. A good year to draft forwards if you have a first-round selection.
- 21. RD Lukas Dragicevic, Tri-Cities Americans (WHL). Big, mobile, skilled.
- 22. RC Nate Danielson, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL). He can skate, good size and real skill.
- 23. RW Jayden Perron, Chicago Steel (USHL). Small and extremely talented offensive player.
- 24. RW Matthew Wood, UConn (H-East). Big winger with skill, he’s a February 2005
- 25. RW Koehn Ziemmer, Prince George Cougars (WHL). Power forward with great numbers
- 26. LD Mikhail Gulyayev, Omsk (KHL). Dynamic, undersized, two-way ability.
- 27. RD David Reinbacher, Kloten (Swiss). He has size and defensive strengths.
- 28. LD Theo Lindstein, Brynas (SHL). Dynamic puck mover in junior.
- 29. LD Etienne Morin, Moncton Wildcats (QMJHL). Smart puck mover, impressive outscoring.
- 30. LC Samuel Honzek, Vancouver Giants (WHL). Big, talented winger.
Probably my favourite prospect in this draft (Etienne Morin) is in this group, math loves him. I’d expect him to go later (second round) and doubt he’ll fall to the Oilers. Perron, Wood and Honzek are all quality. Great draft.
- 31. LC David Edstrom, Frolunda (SHL). Big two-way C impressed from Hlinka to SHL.
- 32. LW Daniil But, Lokomotiv (MHL). 6-5, 203 and he’s skilled. Climbing.
- 33. LW Danny Nelson, US Natl Development Team (USHL). PF with plus shot.
- 34. RW Bradley Nadeau, Penticton Vees (BCHL). Undersized and skilled. Bet the Oilers like him.
- 35. RW Ethan Gauthier, Sherbrooke Phoenix (QMJHL). Skilled, not as dynamic as names ahead of him.
- 36. RW Mathieu Cataford, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL). Substantial offense.
- 37. RW Felix Unger Sorum, Leksands (J20 Swe). Exceptional passer, undersized.
- 38. LW Roman Kantserov, Magnitogorsk (MHL). Small, extremely skilled winger.
- 39. LC Kalan Lind, Red Deer Rebels (WHL). Speed is his calling card.
- 40. RW Will Whitelaw, Youngstown Phantoms (USHL). Fast, great hands, slick. Small.
There are several players in this group of 10 who could go higher. Bradley Nadeau has some buzz around him, Daniil But is a trending player and two Q forwards (Gauthier, Cataford) have some strong arrows. Another personal favourite, Felix Unger Sorum, will go much later but he’s a fine player.
- 41. LW Aydar Suniev, Penticton Vees (BCHL). Impact junior, complete skills, skating a worry.
- 42. RC Gracyn Sawchin, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL). Solid offensive prospect, good speed.
- 43. RW Kasper Halttunen, Helsinki (Liiga). He has skill, size and projects as a power forward.
- 44. RC Jonathan Fauchon, BB Armada (QMJHL). A quality two-way center, late arrival to the list.
- 45. G Michael Hrabal, Omaha Lancers (USHL). He’s 6.06, could go in the first round.
- 46. LD Luca Cagnoni, Portland Winterhawks (WHL). Small, very skilled blue.
- 47. LW Felix Nilsson, Rogle (J20 Swe). June 2005, quick, smart, underrated.
- 48. RD Beau Akey, Barrie Colts (OHL). Two-way D with plus speed.
- 49. LC Andrei Loshko, Chicoutimi Sagueneens (QMJHL). Quick, creative, great passer.
- 50. RW Yegor Sidorov, Saskatoon Blades (WHL). Huge numbers, older prospect. Big shot.
Edmonton drafts No. 56, so I would guess many of these names will be on the board. If you’re the Oilers, maybe Cam Allen or Beau Akey are the ideal pick (RHD) but trading down is an option. If the club could get two picks in the third round, that might be the way to go.
- 51. RD Oliver Bonk, London Knights (OHL). Smart two-way D who counts defending as a strength.
- 52. LC Oscar Fisker Mølgaard, HV71 (SHL). Quality shutdown C, a little shy offensively.
- 53. LD Dmitri Simashev, Yaroslavl (MHL). Mobille defenseman, shutdown ability. Bet Oilers like him.
- 54. RW Coulson Pitre, Flint Firebirds (OHL). PF prospect, impressive offense, good skater.
- 55. RW Jesse Kiiskinen, Pelicans (Liiga). Under the radar talent goal scorer, outscorer.
- 56. RW Ryan Conmy, Sioux City Musketeers (USHL). Huge spike during the season. October 2004.
- 57. RD Hunter Brzustewicz, Kitchener Rangers (OHL). Modern player-type, has size.
- 58. RW Connor Levis, Kamloops Blazers (WHL). Big forward, fine passer.
- 59. LW Nick Lardis, Hamilton Bulldogs (OHL). Pure scorer, plus skater, spiked late.
- 60. LW Beckett Hendrickson, US Natl Development Team (USHL). June 2005, size, skill.
Coulson Pitre is a player I used in the mock drafts because I do think he’ll go around where Edmonton selects. He would be a good option, any of the defenders here, and once again a pile of wingers. Tyler Wright has been drafting since 2020, choosing 12 forwards, three blue and a goalie (16 picks in all). I think they might go defense this time.
- 61. RC Charlie Stramel, Wisconsin (Big-10). He’s 6-3 and can skate. Physical.
- 62. LC Anton Wahlberg, Malmo (SHL). Another big C who has skill and plays a responsible game.
- 63. LC Carson Rehkopf, Kitchener Rangers (OHL). Pure scorer, he’s also a fine skater.
- 64. LW Tyler Peddle, Drummondville Voltigeurs (QMJHL). Great shot, big risk-reward potential.
- 65. LD Tanner Molendyk, Saskatoon Blades (WHL). Solid two-way D, mobile.
- 66. RW Gavin Brindley, Michigan (NCAA). Great skater, skilled, he’s 19 in October.
- 67. LW Jesse Nurmi, KooKoo (Fin Jr). Fast, playmaking winger is underrated.
- 68. RW Cam Squires, Cape Breton Eagles (QMJHL). Throwback forward with skill.
- 69. G Carson Bjarnson, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL). Huge (6.03, 186) and young (June 30, 2023).
- 70. RD Andrew Gibson, Soo Greyhounds (OHL). Big (6.03, 197) two-way D brings toughness, some skill.
If the Oilers trade down, they might be able to grab someone like Gavin Brindley or Carson Rehkopf. They’re impressive players. Tyler Peddle might be the right player in this group. High risk. Tanner Molendyk is an Oilers type.
- 71. RW Alex Ciernik, Sodertalje (Allsvenskan) Speedy skill winger.
- 72. LW Nico Myatovic, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL). Big winger skates well, net-front presence.
- 73. RW Lenni Hameenaho, Assat (Liiga). Throwback winger wins battles, has some skill.
- 74. LD Caden Price, Kelowna Rockets (WHL). Two-way D, average in size.
- 75. LC Carey Terrance, Erie Otters (OHL). Great skater, two-way F, 30 goals.
- 76. LD Andrew Strathmann, Tri-City (USHL). Puck mover, creative, some chaos.
- 77. LW Emil Jarventie, Ilves (Liiga). Explosive winger, high skill. Undersized.
- 78. LC Markus Vidicek (QMJHL). Smart, skilled, undersized. Second-year eligible.
- 79. RC Jaden Lipinski, Vancouver Giants (WHL). Big C, huge improvement year over year.
- 80, RD Cam Allen, Kitchener Rangers (OHL). He’s a RH defenseman who can move the puck well.
Somewhere around the mid-60s, I think the quality fades a little. I’ve seen articles on Caden Price (I think Oilers Nation but could be wrong), perhaps that’s a target. I tend to prefer the OHL in this area of the draft, but the WHL is very deep this year.
- 81. LC Noah Dower-Nilsson, Frolunda (J20 Swe) Smart player, plus shot, impressive numbers.
- 82. LD Albert Wikman, Farjestad (J20 Swe). Shutdown blue with speed and good coverage.
- 83. LD Jakub Dvorak, Liberc (Czechia). Big shutdown defender. A load.
- 84. RD Aram Minnetian, US Natl Development Team (USHL). Great skater, nice range of skills.
- 85. RD Carter Sotherin, Portland Winterhawks (WHL). Big, shutdown defender. Impressive.
- 86. RD Dylan MacKinnon, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL). Big, defensively sound prospect.
- 87. LC Jakub Stancl, Vajxo (J20 Swe). Smart two-way pivot with size and skill.
- 88. RD Matthew Mania, Sudbury Wolves (OHL). RHD, great speed, skill.
- 89. LC Luca Pinelli, Ottawa 67’s (OHL). Undersized, average speed, skilled, determined.
- 90. RW Daniil Bourish, Rouyn-Noranda Huskies (QMJHL). Pure skill, great shot. 19.
The Oilers haven’t been drafting shutdown blue here and there in recent years (Luca Munzenberger aside) but I bet they like Albert Wikman and Carter Sotherin. Lots of goalies this year, Trey Augustine is a fine prospect.
- 91. G Trey Augustine, US Natl Development Team (USHL). .928SP and 6.01, 179.
- 92. LD Axel Landen, HV71 (J20 Swe). Impressive defensive defender.
- 93. LD Rodwin Dionicio, Windsor Spitfires (OHL). Overager, 6.02, 205, big offense. Hire this man!
- 94. RW Easton Cowan, London Knights (OHL). Small, fast skilled.
- 95. RD Maxim Strbak, Sioux Falls Stampede (USHL). Mobile two-way D with size.
- 96. LD Arvid Bergstrom, Djurgardens (J20 Swe). Mobile defender, quality in coverage.
- 97. RC Matyas Melovsky, Baie-Comeau Drakkar (QMJHL). Ridiculous playmaker.
- 98. G Scott Ratzlaff, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL). A .918SP should get scouts attention.
- 99. LW Noel Nordh, Brynas (J20 Swe). Two-way W, more passer than shooter.
- 100. LD Xavier Daigle, Cape Breton Eagles (QMJHL). Steady shutdown blue.
I’m a fan of Rodwin Dionicio, even though I’ll never pronounce his name properly. Noel Nordh is a good prospect and Verreault would be worth a pick for sure. No one is mentioning Matyas Melovsky, but I will.
- 101. LW Antonin Verreault, Gatineau Olympiques (QMJHL). Playmaking winger. Great passer.
- 102. LC Rasmus Kumpulainen, Pelians (Fin Jr). Big center with skill, some range.
- 103. LD Sawyer Mynio, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL). Fine skater, two-way type.
- 104. LD Luke Coughlin, Rimouski Oceanic (QMJHL). Two-way D, solid outscoring, impressive playoff.
- 105. LW Juraj Pekarcik, Nitra MHC (Slovak). Solid offensive player, nice passer. Boots a bit of a question.
- 106. LD Tristan Bertucci, Flint Firebirds (OHL). Good size, mobile, two-way type.
- 107. RC Ty Halaburda, Vancouver Giants (WHL). Small, skilled smart.
- 108. LD Michael Hagens, Chicago Steel (USHL). Two-way D trending.
- 109. RC Timur Mukhanov, Omskie Yastreby (MHL). Small, highly skilled, Russian pivot.
- 110. LC Justin Gill, Sherbrooke Phoenix (QMJHL). Big, strong, scorer, he’s 20.
If Sawyer Mynio becomes famous, Sal Mineo could play him in the movie except he’s dead. Mineo died a horrible death way too young. Sad story. Lots of small forwards here, I’d trade for the last five picks and take five of them. Why not? It’s a strong money puck idea. I bet Rob Vollman or Eric Tulsky do just that one day. Thomas Milic is delivering in the Memorial Cup, just as he has all down the line.
- 111. G Thomas Milic, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL). Average size, now 20, someone draft him!
- 112. RW Tanner Adams, Tri-City Storm (USHL). Skill winger, late spike.
- 113. LW Denver Barkey, London Knights (OHL). High skill, small, not fast. High danger pick.
- 114. LC Isac Born, Frolunda (SHL). A 2004, he’s a center who played quite a in the SHL.
- 115. LD Isaac Menard, Shawinigan Cataractes (QMJHL). Skilled and effective, he’s 19.
- 116. LW Brady Stonehouse, Ottawa 67’s (OHL). Smaller forechecking demon with skill. 2004.
- 117. LW Arvid Sundin (J20 Swe). Undersized burner spiked in junior age 18.
- 118. LD Emil Pieniniemi, Karpat (Fin Jr). Big shutdown blue, mobile.
- 119. RW Matthew Soto, Kingston Frontenacs (OHL). Talented, Aug 2005, small.
- 120. LD Luke Middlestadt, Minnesota (NCAA). Two-way player, undersized, 20.
- 121. RW Aron Jessli, Pickering Panthers (OJHL). A big, strong winger with an edge.
- 122. LC Zeb Forsfjall, Skelleftea (SHL). Undersized, smart center whose speed is average.
- 123. LC Justin Cote, Drummondville (QMJHL). Under the radar, but he has skill. July 2004.
- 124. LC Cole Burbidge, St. John’s Sea Dogs (QMJHL). Slick center turned a corner.
- 125. RW Zach Nehring, Shattuck-St. Mary’s (USHS). Huge winger with skill.
- 126. RW Alexander Rykov, Chelmut Chelyabinsk (VHL). Undersized two-way W.
This is a deep draft, I think you might get a better player in the fourth round than the second. If I could choose just one in this group, it would be Tanner Adams. He has a nice resume, was born September 2 2005 (one of the youngest players in the draft) and he’s from Northport, New York. That area was originally named Great Cow Harbor by the British because the British are British. They should really work on that.
And now for something completely different.
POSSIBLE OILERS ROSTER
I thought you might scroll down past the draft to see if there’s anything there, so here’s a look at a roster that comes in with about $50,000 to spare. Warren Foegele is dealt to Philadelphia for Edmonton’s own fourth-round pick, Kailer Yamamoto bought out. RFA signings are Evan Bouchard, Ryan McLeod, Klim Kostin and Raphael Lavoie. UFA additions are Jesper Fast, David Kampf, Michael Carcone and Derek Ryan. I very much like the top two lines and believe in the third line. That No. 4 line has some nice pieces.
On defense, the big ask is of Philip Broberg and I think that’s a reasonable projection. There will be money at the deadline to add, I’d like to see Dylan Holloway and Raphael Lavoie push for playing time.
POSSIBLE CONDORS ROSTER
The Condors season ended too quickly but they ran out of players, not talent. I’ve added two top of the line AHL defensemen in Sean Day and Nicolas Meloche, they could slide into the NHL at times, too. Markus Niemelainen could mentor Max Wanner, who becomes the most promising defenseman on the Condors in Game 1 of the 2023-24 season. I added Justin Kirkland on left wing, because the skill lines are so young there otherwise. Both Carter Savoie and Matvey Petrov have to play, but the team needs some cover and Greg McKegg is limited (or at least was last year) in what he can do with the puck. I have Noah Philp in Bakersfield but he could easily make the big club with a strong camp.
The player I’ll be watching most closely is Xavier Bourgault. He’s coming off a solid rookie season that showed more range than expected, I think he’ll be a fine NHL player.
PHILIP BROBERG
This is Philip Broberg’s player card via Puck IQ. It shows the young man able to compete capably versus the depth and mid-level NHL players, age 21. That’s a good set of numbers, with the limited minutes versus elites bringing down the average. It’s time for him to take on the chores, Edmonton protecting itself by retaining Cody Ceci until the deadline or beyond. Having too many defensemen who can play is a luxury. The fact the Oilers never had too many defensemen who can play doesn’t alter it being fact. Here’s Oscar Klefbom at the same age, again using Puck IQ.
This is Oscar Klefbom in 2014-15. Way more minutes, but the results are mixed. Why on earth he was playing that much (6:27 a game versus elites) against the best is anyone’s guess. However, his DFF%CorsiRel tells us he was strong compared to the rest of the group. Broberg has settled in nicely, and we’ll see how he shines. Klefbom has been his comparable since Sweden, if he turns into 90 percent of Oscar that’s a helluva player.
BULLETIN!
Theo Rochette is playing in the Memorial Cup. For the LOVE OF GOD, Oilers, sign this man.
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
I’m back, baby! 10-2 today, TSN1260, everyone probably really missed me! OR, you know, didn’t notice. Either way, if the key works I’m coming in opinionated and sassy! We’ll talk NHL playoffs, Oilers, Memorial Cup, NBA Playoffs, what MLSE is doing to themselves and more. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
Say whatever you want about Oilers playoff failures, but last year they lose to the cup champ and this year at least to the finalist. So its not like they’re losing like bums.
Seeing your boy Rochette good tonight vs Seattle LT. He’s had a very good game. Scored less than a minute in. Then a late one with the score still 1-0 with around 3 minutes left.
I still want Erik Karlsson….if we can get bouch on a $4m/4 year…Campbell+Yamo+Ceci+1st+bourgault…no salary retained.
Yes I doubt Janmark is back after the assignment last fall, but nobody claimed him either. He’s a useful player who I would welcome back at a $1 million cap hit. Same with Brown who I’m pretty sure will be signed since EDM is an appealing opportunity for him. I don’t see the appeal of Fast, especially at that price point. Pass. Holloway, Lavoie and Philp are close. The only thing that could ping my interest over the summer is a Mike Peca lite 3/4 C but maybe Philp can grow into that role. We will see at TC.
Kane McD Hyman
RNH Drai Kostin
Holloway McLeod Bjugstad
Lavoie/Philp/Ryan/Brown
Keep Kulak – you will spend more assets to get less at the deadline – and off-load the overpaid bottom 6 wingers (Foegle and Yamo). It’s pretty straight forward this summer.
If Patty Roy is looking for a job…
Man I like how his team plays
And how his team is built
Except PP
I understand it rhymes with “Vionicio”.
But seriously…
The WIndsor Spitfires media guide comes to the rescue–bottom of page 9.
Seems to have travelled an interesting path so far.
— it was interesting enough to me that I wanted to post how interesting it was that I looked on the internet and saw that at 9:00 EST we are well into the Vegas game.
— It’s interesting because last round for the Canadian audience they were playing theses games at 10:00 EST. The NHL is interesting.
No competing games.
Prime time in Dallas.
— yes a Boston baseball game was competing one of those 10PM starts if I recall.
— All games last round were staggered.
The Oilers’ games in question were on ESPN.
ESPN is contractually obligated to show Sunday Night Baseball and, easy research shows, SNB, even a lame game in May, draws more viewer than any NHL playoff game show – by multiples.
Vegas forward depth is crushing Dallas.
Now 3-0.
Yep, over to Celtics-Heat for some real excitement.
edit – or the Alberta election results
Dallas crowd booing the Stars off the ice at the end of the first,
Some Jamie Benn jerseys may yet hit the ice. Dallas fans are ruthless.
https://theathletic.com/4559051/2023/05/29/edmonton-oilers-management-change-holland/
I’ve never posted a comment at the Athletic. Mostly because it no longer lets me change my handle. Plus, there’s not enough time in the day to comment at two places.
Still, I love it that people keep making arguments against using or having an analytics department.
Some dude in that thread things the Oilers are still using Darkhorse analytics. They were hired before even Dellow and maybe stayed along with him until Chiarelli fired everyone.
Funny to think about it that the Oilers, one of the few teams without an analytics department, were actually pioneers in using analytics.
Before Chiarelli, the Oilers had Dan Haight from Darkhorse analytics, Mike Parkatti, Tyler D, and S. Radcliffe (stats/comp guy)…
Imagine if Marco Roy had panned out… He was Parkatii’s analytics pick. One guy draft pick doesn’t make it and you give up on analytics altogether.
From certain accounts, the Oilers are much deeper in to analytics that the general public knows. Gazzola was saying late last week that they are collecting (not necessarily themselves, potentially outsourcing), very deep data, much deeper than even Sportlogiq, etc. provide.
Now, how adept they are at parsing the data, etc., was not discussed.
As far as I can tell, it’s still those two brothers working part time but also have visa and immigration issues as part of their duties.
Pretty sure the plan will be for Philp to take that 4C position, backed up by Ryan.
At $1.8M, the Oilers could re-sign Bjugstad, if they offered a little term, so I’d think they would do that over chasing down and competing for Kampf.
But, in all likelihood, it will be Philp. I don’t think his addition last season was simply a favour to a player looking to become a career AHLer. There was intent behind getting him on the 50 man. I recall being shocked at how good he looked in camp, and by all reports, he was able to elevate his game over the past season. So I have him pencilled in at 4C. He’d be long term cheap, his minutes can be managed at the bottom of the roster if needs be, and he has another Bear to mentor him
There’s still a chance they sign Bjugstad anyways, and move McLeod to wing. but that’s a lot more speculative. The guy who impressed me the most last year was Janmark despite those stony fists. While he shoots a puck like Roberto Duran, he does so many other things well. Some of these older guys will prefer to stay in one spot for a change rather than chasing $250K extra and moving every year. and typically they have little leverage come UFA Day because there’s so many of them. I’d look into getting that done.
The Oilers might be tempted to have a running audition at 2RW, beginning with Holloway and Lavoie. Cap grief does strange things in the midnight sun to the men who moil for gold.
I’ve been suggesting Philp as a legit option for a couple of months now.
Unless Bjugstad is willing to take a legit discount to market and sign in the $1.25MM range, I’d rather roll the dice with Philp/Ryan as 4/5 C and if they need to upgrade, similar to this past season, should be cheap at the deadline.
For me, Philp looks every bit as NHL ready as Lavoie – maybe even more given his more “responsible skill set”. He started off slow as a rookie pro (and they started him on the wing) but, once he was moved to center and he got comfortable, his arrow pivoted straight up.
He has a sneaky good shot and is going to score some goals if he can earn an consistent shift.
————
I’m not sure how much Janmark will actually want to stay. I’ve heard a few times that he was right pissed when he was sent to the AHL – stormed out of the rink. He did say a few times shortly after recall that he wasn’t happy at the beginning. Sure that was 8 months ago but, still, you never know.
————
Unless there is a Connor Brown on a very cheap contract, I think that Holloway likely has the 1st shot at 6F. Part of the problem is all the top 6 wingers are more suited to left wing: Kane, Nuge, Hyman, Holloway. Of course, Hyman shoots right and will move over but I think he likes the left side better. I don’t know if Nuge nor Kane have played the right side as an Oiler. Holloway hasn’t as a pro.
Love the Robert Service….
I haven’t seen Smith over Carlsson anywhere else.
I have put no time into looking at draft eligible players this year.
Can you extrapolate why you have Smith 3rd please?
I know you use math, I’m asking for more detail if you’re inclined to do so.
Sure. Let’s start with Carlsson.
He’s 6.2, 194 and a December 26, 2004 birthday. He’s older than many top prospects in this draft, and has played a TON in the SHL. In 2021-22, he played 35 games, averaging 11:14 a night, scoring 3-6-9. That’s a massive number of minutes for a player who was a year away from being drafted.
This season, he scored 10-15-25 in 44 games (14:45 a night), and was even better in the postseason. (1-8-9 in 13 games, 14:24 per game). This is a mature player for his age and he won’t turn 20 for 19 months.
At even strength, in 12:13 per game (times 44 games), he scored 3-9-12. That’s about 1.34 pts-60 at even strength.
Alexander Holtz, a January 2002, was 1.87 pts-60 ES in 2019-20. Lucas Raymond, a March 2002, was 1.41 pts-60 ES in 2019-20.
They are exceptional players, but are wingers. I think both represent superior prospects at the same age compared to Carlsson, but that’s a tremendously high bar.
Wil Smith plays in the USHL so there’s far less to go on. However, he does have a story to tell. Here are the points-game totals at even strength for USHL forwards drafted inside the top-15 overall by NHL teams, since 2019.
Will Smith 1.55
Alex Turcotte 1.50
Frank Nazar 1.13
Jack Hughes 1.08
Matthew Boldy 1.07
Cole Sillinger 1.06
Logan Cooley 1.04
Rutger McGroarty 1.04
Trevor Zegras 1.00
Cutter Gauthier 1.00
Matt Coronato .90
Tyler Boucher .80
Smith was MVP of the U18’s, is the top center on the US National Team and averages 3.5 shots per game. He’s smart, he’s a RHC and that even-strength points-per-game total towers over all but Turcotte (who has been injury prone).
His one downbeat is play away from the puck, but I think he’s an elite talent. He might be the second best player in this draft (no one catches Bedard based on what we know).
He’s one of the best players to come out of the program. Pretty sure.
Blue Bullet Brad
@BlueBullet1981
This is my current top 6 and I am expecting yours will be something similar. After that, game on.
Bedard
Fantilli
Michkov
Carlsson
Smith
Benson
Thanks LT
An amazing reception for the Latvian hockey tea,
https://twitter.com/raitisnarme/status/1663144342503014400?s=61&t=WWzo5XOO0SDsOISFpfGKMg
I’ll admit to having little interest in this year’s draft, so I greatly appreciate your efforts to present this draft guide for us LT. You are The Machine.
Been waiting for over 15 years to not really care about the draft.
Great post LT.
I like the projected Oilers roster. Michael Carcone is an interesting option. 27 years old and just 5’9″, 170. Only scored 9 pts in 30 games with the Coyotes the last two years. However, he spiked in the AHL with 85 pts in 65 games this year. And he played decent for Canada at the World Championships.
27 years old? Are you sure?
https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=169554
If we’re talking about Arizona. What about Connor Ingram?
Why?
Would be odd to spend assets to acquire an RFA, presumably sign him and then waive him.
I’ve been talking about the Oilers’ 2-year cup window. Now DNB has promulgated the same.
Step 1
You buyout Campbell.
That adds a $1.54/ $1.14m caps for the last two years of the window, but rids us of the Campbell contract. The closest comp for his career arc I could find is Chad Johnson though JP likes Griess, Talbot, and Reimer.
Other potential trajectories include Grubauer, Holtby, and Ward.
Either way, you expect decline from 31 to 32 for goalies.
Ingram is arb eligible, so I’m not sure what his next contract will cost.
I’m *guessing* that it’s substantially than $3.5m and he’ll perform better than Campbell next season.
**disclaimer** The Oilers don’t pay me $5m usd per year to make these decisions. I offer my 2cents, free of charge, for fun at a blogging website.
Ok, sure – we know there is almost zero chance that Campbell will be bought out and the scenario is essentially fantasy from the start but if that is fun for you to discuss then who am I to get in the way – onwards and upwards!
I thought it was interesting that LT listed him so I listed some pros and cons.
Not sure if I would do it. Would need to understand why he struggled with Arizona and how defensive conscious he is.
great stuff LT ! not much to add.
in 2006 the Oilers had an 11 day break between the Conference Final and the Stanley Cup Final and it took Edmonton 2 games to get back to their earlier playoff level.
I am very curious to see how Florida does with the long layoff. Game 1 is set for Saturday, so they will have had 10 days off. We Wait.
Well maybe Montour checks Marchessault into Bobrovsky in G1 and sets VGK up for their first cup?
IIRC, Oilers were fire in that game and were on track to win until certain events unfolded. G2 was a write-off from the get-go.
So, you’re saying there’s a chance.
Gene would have a field day with the puns.
He’d be Oliver the situation.
Ouch. That’s good.
Regarding Bakersfield, I’m interested to see how Carter Savoie continues to adjust in his 2nd pro year. Year 1 featured injuries, a lack of ice time, and an overall lack of production, but the kid has shown he can score.
He scored 39 23-33-45 the year before last in college hockey. That’s 1.15 points per game in his age 19 NCAA season (turned 20 in January).
Here are the “Under 20” forwards who scored >1.10 points per game in NCAA going back 10 years from when Savoie did it (21-22). Also their NHL boxcars to date (most are still active).
The list obviously includes lots of players who scored better than Savoie, but I’ll proceed anyway. List(s) here: https://www.eliteprospects.com/league/ncaa/stats/2021-2022?age=u20&sort=ppg
Matty Beniers 90 27-39-66
Kent Johnson 88 16-27-43
Cole Caulfield 123 53-31-84
Dylan Holloway 51 3-6-9
Matt Boldy 128 46-56-102
Alex Newhook 159 29-37-66
Thomas Bordeleau 16 0-7-7
Jack Drury 40 4-6-10
Evan Barrat —- **
Josh Norris 133 54-39-93
Clayton Keller 442 133-209-342
Troy Terry 274 75-101-176
Denis Smirnov —- **
Henrik Borgstrom 111 13-13-26
Trent Frederic 198 29-25-54
Kyle Connor 466 209-215-224
Brock Boeser 398 139-172-311
Nick Schmaltz 427 100-199-299
Colin White 292 44-69-113
Dylan Gambrell 233 17-23-40
Maxim Letunov 3 1-0-1
Jack Eichel 476 180-266-446
Dylan Larkin 584 179-258-437
Danton Heinen 413 70-106-176
Trevor Moore 263 45-73-118
Nic Kerdiles 3 0-0-0
Devin Shore 422 50-85-135
Riley Barber 16 0-0-0
Johnny Gaudreau 682 231-452-683
Kevin Roy 28 6-1-7
Savoie is one of 31 forwards to score 1.10 points per game or better over the 10 seasons.
**Barrat and Smirnov are the only two of the 31 players who didn’t play an NHL game. Both played at Penn State University, which joined NCAA D1 in 2010, and I assume plays more weaker opponents than many other D1 teams.
As I said, this definitely isn’t a fully fair list of comparables for Savoie, but it does show that most of the players who score as well as Savoie did at a similar age make it to the NHL for at least a time.
On Savoie himself, we wait.
I had a feeling that out of the “shiny new forward pros” (Tulio, Savoie, Bourgault), Savoie would struggle the most.
I did find that he showed some improved battle efficiency over the course of the season but he never really did get on track being in and out of the lineup, etc.
I’m going to presume he learned some hard lessons on the size, strength, speed, skill, etc. of the pro game and is training his butt off this off-season in preparation.
“Theo Rochette is playing in the Memorial Cup. For the LOVE OF GOD, Oilers, sign this man”…Love it LT.
Latvia was so jacked up about yesterday’s bronze-medal performance that their parliament declared today a holiday.
Yamamoto gets critisized for lack of production at $3.1MM.
He’s proven to be a much better producer than Jesper Fast. Yamamoto was terribly unproductive this past season and had the same amount of goals as Fast, in over 20 less games.
Sure, Yamamoto had “better linemates” but still.
I like Fast but he’s never been a top 6 player and I think it would be a mistake to sign him at a premium thinking he’s the solution to the Oilers’ top 6.
He’s got great bottom six skills and would be a nice addition but he’s not a top 6 NHL player, right?
So you are saying that Fast put up the same or similar points as Yamo while paying with lesser linemates and for less money?
I don’t think the same goals in over 20 less games in equatable production.
He has a career high of 14 goals and 34 points and turns 32 near the end of the calendar year.
For me, he’s not a reasonable top 6 acquisition. I’m not saying Yamamoto is at this point.
I’d prefer not to spend over $2MM on a soon to be 32 year old career bottom six guy – legit solid bottom six guy but that doesn’t fit the Oilers’ current cap structure, in my opinion.
I’d rather spend the dollars on keeping Bjugstad over Fast or Kampf.
I’d go after your #27 pick if available at that spot if I were the Oilers.
Also #26
Just noticed this from Willis yesterday. Pretty funny (funny weird, not haha):
Jonathan Willis@JonathanWillis
NHL playoff teams: rank by goals against / playoff exit.
1. BOS, R1
2. CAR, R3
*3. DAL, alive*
4. NYR, R1
5. NYI, R1
6. MIN, R1
7. TOR, R2
8. NJD, R2
9. COL, R1
10. WPG, R1
*11. VGK, alive*
12. SEA, R2
13. TBL, R1
14. LAK, R1
15. EDM, R2
*16. FLA, alive*
———————————-
Jonathan Willis@JonathanWillis
In other words, there’s a non-zero chance that the worst defensive team in the playoffs could finish the postseason as Stanley Cup champions after knocking off the best, second-best and third-best defensive teams in the league.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. #whenbacktestingfails
Did Willis correct for the volatility or variance in Bobrovsky’s career performance levels? You know, perhaps try to put a error bar on those goals against rankings.
Fun post.
Mornin All.
Love that lineup. I think your projected lineup, as an iterative thing during the offseason, improves with each progression. Although I hope they trade Yamo for a pick ot better rather than buyout. Especially like the attention to detail that you look at the impact on Bakersfield as it will be part of Holland’s concerns and is ignored by many prognosticators.
Why sign Carcone? Cannot make Arizona and at 27 has played 30 NHL games. No thanks.
If Yamo can’t be traded straight up (and I think he can, but not certain), I would presume they’d try and trade with some retained salary, like up to $500K – this year’s cap hit would be same as a buyout (give or take) and it would save the 2nd year dead cap hit.
Presumably the player is traceable at $2.6MM for one season, right?
Wow… what a load of a post! Absolutely great stuff here LT!
Truth be told this is one of my favorite posts of the year here. It’s not until now that I start paying attention to the players available. First round selections obviously have a bit more excitement and possibilities (ie McDavid, Bouchard etc.).
Not to mock your mock draft list but I must admit to the names just blending together after years of watching the hockey. Names likes Zachary Benson is just Zachary L’Heureux and Tyler Benson 2.0. Others include Kalan Lind, Caden Price, Xavier Daigle. If it’s difficult for me, I can only imagine it is for others.
A little rant… I do have some bias to the different programs and know there’s always exceptions. I’ve always believed the OHL/QMJHL is speed, WHL defense (and Soo). Then you have leaders in those groups like London, Kitchener, Kingston, the Soo, Kamloops, Red Deer etc. as hockey player factories. So, if LT’s list is accurate and zeroing in on that group given our hosts mention to defense, I see Hunter Brzustewicz and Oliver Bonk as great selections. I’d give the coin flip to the Canadian, just because.
Great work LT!!! After all these years I can’ believe the effort you put into this annually. Thank you!
I’ve noticed Gracyn Sawchyn fall as your draft lists progressed. Is that due to adding more players?
My selfish hope is he is available when EDM makes their second or third selection (pending trades), a la Carter Savoie. Nice spot to get picked up, no pressure.
He’s a bit slight, and could add an extra gear, but his skating mechanics are fine and he doesn’t avoid contact or playing along the boards. IMO he’d be a quality middle-six winger with good hands and head for the game.
Staois road the management “buses” in junior hockey. MacT did not. Staois is like Manson.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RubBzkZzpUA
Staois has been trying to learn the management side from the grass root levels. Like all good GMs who have sustained success in the NHL.
Holland is right … next step is AGM. That doesn’t mean that he’s going guaranteed to be GM after Holland steps aside … it’s just another step in Steady Steve’s apprenticeship to help him learn about all aspects of management.
I thought at first a few years back it would be Keith Gretzky replacing Ken then I thought last year it would be his kid Brad taking over the reins when his contract was up. Now it’s Staios getting the media’s attention. Staios played a no nonsense intelligent brand of Hockey.
A good boss trains several potential successors.
True test of a good boss is how well the organization works after they are gone.
Sorry Jack Welch. You fail.
Its good to have 4 good hockey people as AGMs with different skill sets.
Well, 3 AGMs (including Bill Scott) and a pseudo-AGM in Staios (unless/until he gets the title).
Frank Seravalli reporting that Staios might join the Ottawa Senators if Michael Andlauer is the successful bidder for the team.
Andlauer hired Staios as GM of the Hamilton Bulldogs.
That would be awesome for Steve – funny how those 90’s Oilers seem to be finding roles in management. Grier, Staois, Horcoff. Those guys used every once of smarts to carve out long careers.
I wonder what Marty Sakic is doing these days?
I think we need to talk a bit about what it means to “accrue cap space” given the Oilers will likely be in a position to do so not being over the cap in LTIR (at least to start the season).
Lots of projected lineups and lots of talk about accruing cap space and acquiring at the deadline – that is real and that is substantial but there may be some misunderstanding regarding what it means.
Now it is 100% true and accurate that a team that is not using LTIR reserves to go over the cap can essenitally “pro rate” the cap hit of a player acquired in-season. If a $1,000,000 annual cap hit player is acquired exactly 3/4 of the way in to the season (based on number of days in the season), then they need to fit in 1/4 of the annual cap hit – i.e. the team only needs $250,000 of cap space.
Now, prior to acquisitions, on a daily basis, when we talk about accruing cap space, this does NOT mean that for any day a team is under the cap, the daily portion of that amount (1/185 for a 185 day season, for example) is banked and added to their overall cap space – that is not the case.
Essentially, the 5pm team, on each and every day, needs to be cap compliant and its the projected cap hit of each player that gets added. The thing is, the projected cap hit of each player is directly related to the number of days they are on the roster (and a player on the 5pm roster is projected to be on the roster for the rest of the season).
For any of the days in the season the player is not on the roster, their projected cap hit, when on the roster, is reduced by the daily cap hit of the amount of days off.
For example, lets say that a $1,000,000 player sent down for 100 days though the course of the season and there are 200 days in the season. When that player is on the roster, their projected cap hit is essentially $500,000 giving the team an extra $500K of cap space when they are on the roster (to the extent they have spent those 100 days off).
So, sending Dylan Holloway down on off-days, for example, doesn’t “add cap space” at the end, however, when Holloway is on the roster, his projected cap hit for the season is less than $925K.
I THINK the above is correct – I’ve had a bunch of correspondence with Hart at Puckpedia and Jean-Francois C on twitter over the last few days to try and ensure I understand correctly.
There will be times during the season, when they will probably run a little lean (e.g. when everyone is healthy, and they are running 11-7, they will have the option to send a guy down for cap purposes).
Given that they made it work last season with less than $200 of cap space, I think they’ll continue to be creative in their efforts to accrue cap space, health permitting.
They’ll probably be within a few hundred bucks of the cap to start the season on Game 1, then start sending guys down and run lean for the first 10 games of the season, before calling guys back up.
Yup, presuming they are not in LTIR, I do presume they’ll use the “day to day cap structuring”.
Holloway and Broberg could/should be sent down on off days and called up on game days but only at times.
Lets not forget, if they are re-assigned, they can’t practice with the team, etc.
There is also the requirement that teams must take prompt steps to have re-assigned players get to their new assignment – given the Condors are NOT in Edmonton, I’m not 100% sure they are able to re-assign them and not have them get to the airport, etc.
We’ll have to see
John Marino was a great pick for the Oilers in the later rounds.
Ya, its too bad there was zero chance to sign him after Chiarelli was fired.
The pick isn’t done yet though – the Oilers drafted Shane LeChance with the 6th round pick the Oilers got back – As Tarkus has ensured, we know he scored some legit goals in the USHL this past season.
Will be following him at BU this coming season for sure.
What did LT say, something like Chiarelli could find a future NHL defensemen in a snowstorm at midnight?
I used that in regard to the Steve Staios signing iirc, well before Mr. Chiarelli.
Oh that’s right. I thought you had said something about Chiarelli’s ability to scout USHL defensemen as well.
Chiarelli certainly wasn’t bad at drafting defensemen though his trades to acquire defensemen are a different story.
Kesslering, Kemp, Niemo, Desharnais, Samorukov, Marino, Bear, Jones, and Bouchard.
That’s quite a run.
Agreed. I did say, and believe, names like Caleb Jones, John Marino and even Mike Kesselring had to be Chiarelli. Edmonton’s presence in the league Marino played in was basically non-existent and then he shows up on the draft list.
Chiarelli’s aggressiveness cost him, and he had so much when he landed in Boston he could afford to waste assets. His problem in Edmonton is that he needed to be patient and make all of those 2015 picks, and he didn’t do it.
I’m going to presume that Michael Kesselring will, in due course, be inserted in to that group of very good late round picks.
Miles and miles to go but my next great hope is that Max Wanner will be included – I think he popped greater than expected post draft in junior – now, continuing to punch ahead of his draft spot at the pro level is a big step. Really look forward to him as a Condor this coming season.
I think that Petrov remains another option – boom or bust type pick – we’ll likely know more in a year.