Ken Holland uses free agency like a convenience store. If there’s a solution available in free agency, the Oilers are bound and determined to make it work. The number one source for Edmonton’s foundation pieces is the draft (Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan McLeod, Darnell Nurse, Evan Bouchard, Stuart Skinner) but free agency has aided the cause (Zach Hyman, Evander Kane, Cody Ceci).
A free-agent (Jack Campbell) misstep means Holland will need to find real value over the summer. Edmonton needs a right-wing solution for the No. 2 line, and that player needs two-way acumen for under $3 million AAV. Who is that player?
THE ATHLETIC!
- Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers guide to saving an NHL Draft on just three picks
- DNB: Why the Oilers are preparing to hold on to Cody Ceci this offseason
- DNB: What I’m hearing about Oilers’ offseason plans: Trade candidates, Erik Karlsson interest, more
- Lowetide: 5 Oilers assets that could have value in a trade this summer
- Lowetide: How the Oilers may handle a change in management
- Lowetide: Will the Oilers draft (and keep) a world class agitator in 2023?
- DNB: The Oilers missed a true Stanley Cup chance this year and the contention clock is ticking
- Lowetide: Can Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie make the team in 2023-24?
- Lowetide: 10 Edmonton Oilers free-agent targets for this summer
- DNB: Oilers offseason priorities: A 10-step plan for ensuring success next season
- Lowetide: 7 ways the Oilers can create cap room for 2023-24
- Lowetide: Why Oilers winger Klim Kostin could be a key to Oilers summer
- DNB: How the Oilers roster could soon look different
- DNB: Oilers GM Ken Holland focused on ‘unfinished business’ entering final year of his contract
- Lowetide: Identifying a 2023 NHL Draft sleeper prospect for the Oilers
- Lowetide: Stock up or down for every Oilers prospect in the system
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022
POSSIBLE OPENING NIGHT ROSTER ($84.5M cap)
In this version of summer, Warren Foegele is dealt to Philadelphia for the return of Edmonton’s fourth round pick. RFA’s who return are Evan Bouchard, Ryan McLeod, Klim Kostin and Raphael Lavoie. UFA’s are Jesper Fast, David Kampf and Derek Ryan. It’s under the cap with a little room.
In this scenario, I like the top two lines and the fourth line could support the inexperienced Kid Line centered by Ryan McLeod. Defense stays the same, Broberg probably plays more than Desharnais and maybe more than Kulak when all is said and done. Broberg is the player who can grow in that group.
OBSCURE ALTERNATIVES
Frank Seravalli published his summer trade list this week, and it has the hockey world imagining the possibilities. Plenty of famous names there, fewer quality contracts married to productive players with terms that are acceptable.
I don’t see a summer of loud noises ahead, and based on his verbal Ken Holland doesn’t see it either. However, things can change. Among the players listed by Seravalli that I like as possible Oilers, the most interesting are Connor Hellebuyck, Erik Karlsson, Colton Parayko, Brandon Carlo and a few others. I don’t think the Oilers would be wise to play in that part of the pool.
Here’s what I do believe. There are reasonable options available. Some of them are going to be, like Jesse Puljujarvi, players who aren’t going to be qualified. Among that group, I’d look at Yegor Sharangovich, Brett Howden, Morgan Geekie, Nolan Patrick (no idea if he’s healthy but he would be a low risk signing if he’s coming back), Ross Colton and Noah Gregor. They could all be qualified and signed, but the Oilers would be wise to have their list ready.
Farther down that list, Nathan Bastian, Cale Fleury and Alex Carrier would be of interest.
BOTTOM LINE
Edmonton doesn’t have much walking around money. They’re going to kick the Evan Bouchard contract down the road apiece, and probably do it again. I suspect that, if this blog is still standing, the verbal on the gifted Bouchard will be similar to the acidic comments on Darnell Nurse in the days to come.
I’ve look at Oil from both sides now, from give and take, and still somehow, it’s Oil’s illusion I recall, I really don’t know oil, at all. As of this morning, I’m saying tweak but don’t go big name hunting. In fact, give the kids a chance. You might be surprised.
This is also an $84.5 million cap. I traded Kailer Yamamoto for Boris Katchouk, signed the RFA’s, plus Derek Ryan and Garnet Hathaway. The group is bigger, Hathaway has developed as a nice outscoring option and has played with skill. The growth on this roster comes from Broberg, McLeod, Kostin, Holloway, Lavoie. As it should be. Look to address weakness at the deadline.
NEW for The Athletic: Why the Oilers must return to the OHL at 2023 NHL Draft
https://theathletic.com/4577530/2023/06/03/oilers-nhl-draft-ohl-2023/
Your Athletic article mentions that the OHL is the best junior league on the planet.
Is that still true?
In the 2022 first round, there were only two OHL players selected…six from the US National Development Team…six from the WHL.
Depending on which mock draft used, there are only four OHL players ranked to go in the first round while there are nine USNDT/NCAA players ranked.
It seems to me the balance of power is shifting.
Yes. OHL is best. There’s just so much talent there. The USHL has been running hot lately, if you include the national team in with the rest of the league it’s formidable. WHL is strong this year, some outstanding talent.
I find it surprising that Leafs fans and analysts do not (generally) consider the Tavares UFA signing a negative.
https://theathletic.com/4571447/2023/06/02/kyle-dubas-maple-leafs-best-worst/
I was also surprised to see Dubas credited for “creating the culture that makes hometown players” want to play in TO for cheap.
Huh.
I’m amazed at what passes for leadership these days. Dubas lies at a press conference that he will work for the Leafs or no one else. At the same time he was undoubtedly working back channels with Pittsburgh leading Shanahan to fire him. Dubas takes the POHO promotion gig at Pittsburgh prompting Shanahan to panic hire Treliving. Talk about a bad look for all involved.
Evan Bouchard still leading NHL D in playoff points this season. This is definitely setting up for a tough negotiation and a potential bridge deal.
How about Leon still leading in playoff goals despite other players having an extra round and a game on him? What a beaut.
It was a similar story last year with McDavid and Draisaitl 1/2 in playoff scoring despite not reaching the final.
They’ll probably post some all time numbers if the team can take another step.
And yeah, Bouchard earned himself a fair chunk of extra money in those last 30 games.
Just looking at the draft and I keep landing on Nico Myatovic, LW with Seattle, so I did some digging. Despite all the big name additions and probable drastically reduced ice time his numbers were relatively consistent between the first and second half of the season.
And those numbers were not much different than Reid Schaefer’s in his draft year, and based on his +/- unlike Schaefer, he had little to no PP time.
He played 68 games and ended up with 30 goals, 30 apples, +43 and 176 shots. From what I could see, many of his goals were of the rebound, deflection type, so he doesn’t have an over powering shot, but he is a dogged 200 foot player who is a substantial 5v5 out-scorer.
His splits were:
Games 1-17: 7, 5, +5, 39
18-34: 7, 11,+17,46
35-51: 6, 3, +2, 42
52-68: 10,11,+19,49
I have him No. 72 on my final list. He would be a great target.
https://lowetide.ca/2023/05/29/lowetide-top-125-for-2023-final-edition/
So I figured out the sneaky WHL stats, there is a feature where you can turn on/off certain stats.
To compare Schaefer and Myatovic:
Last season Schaefer scored 21 5v5 goals and 17 5v5 assists.
This season Myatovic scored 24 5v5 goals and 25 5v5 assists in 1 more game. Also Myatovic is at least 6’2”, but I’ve seen him listed in places as 6’3”….
Finally, Schaefer scored his 32 goals on 229 shots (14.0 %), while Myatovic scored his 30 goals on 176 shots (17.0 %).
FYI, Schaefer scored 28 goals on 209 shots (13.4 %), also note that he played 11 fewer games.
IMO, Myatovic is a better skater and is a more complete player than Schaefer. I expect he will be given some consideration for the WJ team next season and I expect he could push for 50 goals with substantially more PP time as a larger version for the T-birds of Zach Hyman. Hyman is a better skater.
*Second paragraph refers to this season
Not much interest here in the actual Stanley Cup Finals, doesn’t look like. We’ll have more comments on the Oilers-Flames split squad games in September.
Gudas’ injury looks a lot like Leon’s vs L.A. Here’s hoping it’s not.
[+] Go Cats!
[-] Go Knights!
Can you imagine…
Eichel
Karlsson
Stephenson
Roy
.….down the middle?
10 day layoff didn’t help the reffing much. Horrible
Those 2 penalties on Mahura — hoo boy.
Pierre LeBrun
Bettman says most likely salary cap increase will remain at $1M bump only for this summer. The larger bump comes in summer of ‘24
I think this benefits the Oil, yes we have cap problems but so do 25 other teams. This will mean more players will be forced to sign cheap deals with more rfas being let go and we need cheap. On the flip side disposing of cap will be more expensive.
Agreed
“Based on our current projections, there will still be some escrow so the cap will go up by $1M, give or take…… have talked to Marty…… safe to say we are going to continue by the terms of the agreement we have”. – Bettman
Bettman live
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/watch-live-gary-bettman-speaks-to-media-before-puck-drops-on-stanley-cup-final/
He mentioned they are approaching $6B revenue but the stream was wonky and I didn’t hear if he mentioned where the leaves the escrow balance.
I’m reading comments from gathered media and it’s no clearer.
I believe Bettman will be giving his annual pre-cup final media avail this aft/eve.
I presume he’ll provide an (unofficial) update on the 2023/24 cap including a further projection on if the escrow balance will be paid off this season so the cap re-links to 50% of HRR and we get a material bump or, presuming that is not the case, if negotiations are on-going to perhaps agree to an early increase this year (which would need NHLPA and BOG approval, I believe).
Though I am no medical professional, I do wonder if Yamamoto had not fully recovered from his neck and concussion issues by the end of this last season. I often see players in other sports take an extended window of time to fully heal and play to their best.
I would love to leave the roster as is and start a 3rd line of Foegele, McLeod and Yamamoto would do? If you could sign McLeod to $1.4M, Ryan for $900K, Kostin for $1.25M and Bouchard for a $4M bridge deal, then it all barely fits. Run the 11-7 and play the first half of the season with Holloway at 2RW. Kostin and Ryan as a 4th line winger pair. Save bigger moves for the deadline
I suspect you’re closer to the truth than any of us might want to admit.
Would rather trade Yamo for a pick and keep Bjugstad for 1-1.5 million less
Connor Heelbucyk potential destinations..LAK top the list.
https://winnipegsun.com/sports/connor-hellebuyck-is-jets-biggest-bargaining-chip-as-nhl-draft-looms
I am hoping he goes east, Buffalo or Ottawa.
Both have the assets.
Wondering if Holland will try and grab Brown and Pacioretty on 1 year deals with bonuses for games played and played in playoffs. Boston did it to good effect with Bergeron and Krejci but the cap didn’t rise like they may have hoped.
Adding those 2 would do wonders for our forward depth and give us a 3rd line of foegle, rnh and Kostin with the 4th having McLeod, Holloway and ryan.
Personally I would offer both 1.5 million with 1 million for 60 regular season games played and then another million for 16 playoff games.
I’ve been all over this for Brown.
One difference from what the Burins did – the Bruins provided massive bonuses that were most certainly going to vest – I mean Bergerson got $2.5MM for 10 games played.
If the Oilers were to do this with Brown or Max P., I would suggest they would be real target given the real risk of signing these players (kind of the point of permitting performance bonuses) as opposed to just pure cap deferral, which is what the Bruins did.
I’m talking like 20G/50P to vest $1MM or something along those lines.
I will be honest here and the reason I like the 2 are the possibility of injury and return for playoffs. Yes we would end up in ltir but the benefit of a top 6 forward returning for the playoffs has been demonstrated by Tampa and LV. The games played threshold of 60/16 are not automatic at all.
Who thinks Calgary returns to the playoffs next year?
I do.
Sutter out = Flames are back in
Are they taking the Jets spot? That’s probably the one that seems up for grabs. Of course each year has its surprising teams both moving up and down. But I don’t think Calgary is better on paper than the other 7 Western playoff teams unless Markstrom has a Vezina season.
Or Wolf is ready.
Way too many unknowns.
Coach
Lindholm
Backlund
Toffoli
Hanifin
Tanev
All one year away from UFA status and Conroy may trade some or all should they decline to extend.
But are they known unknowns or unknown unknowns?
Who cares?
Staples has an article up that captures all the positives Brian Lawton had to say about the Oilers Organization.
Excellent read about just how far the organization has come in so many ways.
I write to point out that I must disagree with last paragraph where Staples states none of it really matters unless they win. I’m not doing Staples justice here, but my point is
Of course it matters. They may never get a win. It still all matters in so many ways. The Org has accomplished so much, and gained so much reputation the last 5 years. They are a source of pride. This accomplished should not be diminished, whether there is a cup in the future or not. The roster, the management, the facilities, the reputation.
I agree, Winchester. It DOES matter. However, many Oilers fans have made this about nothing else. No one can enjoy it until Stanley.
And some say “more than one” and I wonder if they watch other teams.
It’s been a weird experience, the McDavid era. I’m happy to say I’ve enjoyed every minute of it.
Agree completely. Urkle said it best: Legacy Organization.
He’s not a UFA until next summer, but Nino Niederreiter might be a solution. Would Winnipeg retain? Would they take Yamamoto back?
I also think Nino would be a nice replacement for Yama. Gotta wait for Winnipeg to start the tear down or get some contracts signed.
Johnny Hockey was willing to go to Columbus just to get away from Darryl Sutter.
Now Sutter is gone, and Johnny is stuck with Mike Babcock. Frying pan, meet fire.
He could have signed with New Jersey! It was mystifying why he turned down more money to go home to Jersey. Now he watches them become a powerhouse team.
https://nypost.com/2022/07/19/johnny-gaudreau-neared-devils-deal-before-game-changing-phone-call/
And he has to watch as his buddy Turtlechuk heads to the Cup Finals.
Babcock is a very strange choice for a young team.
yep, couldn’t be more right.
31 GMs interested right now. there’s no way JG and PL last past mid season without serious issues.
Apparently he chose CBJ because of their children’s hospital. His wife is a nurse and it was good for her career. Plus, the domestic life is good there, and it’s very close to home for him so best of all worlds.
Except for, you know, professional success.
I was at a seminar years ago and met a gent from Columbus. He raved about it, moved from Philly in his 20’s for a job and never left. I know the baseball team, the Clippers was damn good (Yankees farm team) when I paid attention to such things.
My son and I travelled to Columbus at the end of 21/22 to watch the Oilers play the Blue Jackets (then over to Pittsburgh to see the Oilers there). It’s seems like it might be a nice city to live in, but boring to visit (unless you’re there for a Buckeyes game or maybe you have to know locals to find anything else interesting). Pittsburgh seems like a much more colorful city at least to visit as a tourist. The big 3 in Columbus are state government, college and insurance all 3 of which contribute to its thriving medical community.
Damn you, LT. Now I’ve got Joni Mitchell stuck in my head. 😀
Tina Turner and Gordon Lightfoot are on their way out of my head, so I guess there is room.
lol. They go round and round in a circle game!
I like the second roster very much.
Except Bouchard’s cap hit. Is 4.1M what he’s likely to cost?
Multiple reports that Mike Babcock will be the next coach of the Blue Jackets.
https://twitter.com/darrendreger/status/1665023511339888642?s=61&t=WWzo5XOO0SDsOISFpfGKMg
I’m a Expos fan 1st than Blue Jay 2nd I’ve also liked the Brewers ever since early Eighties Pat Molitor Robin Yount days. I was listening to the NHL Network the other day. They were talking about pro team logos and how the Brewers logo had the letters M and B in it which very few people have ever noticed. I myself have been looking at that Logo over 50 yrs and never seen the M and B in it its plain as day. This kinda through me for a loop.
art.
It looks more like a “63”…. but I never noticed it either.
I only learned last year that the Hartford Whalers logo has an “H” along with the “W” in it.
I liked Bob’s idea when chatting with Brian Lawton last week on that other radio show. He suggested Connor Brown was eligible for a bonus laden deal, like base 1-1.5M for 1 yr with 2 M bonus for games played, all of which would be deferred against the cap for the year after if he met it. Lawton thought his agent would be up for that due to his ability to create value playing with the big guns.
Lawton has been reading my posts over the last month or so.
As an aside, I’m surprised he hasn’t been hired by an org yet – I think it was last season that he left the NHL Networks and expressed his desire to be hired back in to hockey operations but an org. I think he’s got a very good reputation, forward thinking, etc.
LT, why Hamblin over Philp?
Also, with respect to Philp, Stauff had some verbal a few days ago on his show that didn’t sound all that encouraging about him being back in the org. I can’t remember exactly what he said but it sound like the org would for sure want him back and qualify him but it wasn’t a lock that he would be back and we’d see how it plays out over the next month. He also mentioned some traumatic life event for Philp a few years ago (but didn’t expand) – it was very cryptic and odd.
You can place Philp on the roster, but it’s tight and I’m not sure what the cost would be for him. If Hamblin makes the team over Philp, it would be cap related or for the reason you mention.
Thanks.
I suspect Philp comes in right around $800K – on the presumption he signs.
Realistically, in order to acquire this 6F externally, the Oilers need to move on from not just Yamamoto but a second “$3MM player”. Moving Yamo essentially provides the cap space to bring back the material RFAs and fill out the rest of the roster cheaply (and its very tight just to do that) – a second contract needs to go out to add externally and I do note that you moved Foegele as well in the first scenario.
I will say that Jesper Fest would be a solid add for the Oilers (at the right cap hit) but he’s simply not a top six player and never has been and he’s 31 I believe. His production is dwarfed by Yamamoto over the years (and this past season – per game). This would be more of the same, would it not?
Hatthaway as well, of course, not a top 6 player but a high end 4th liner, right?
I think Holloway is more likely to producer 45-50 points as 6F, right?
———————–
The value contract is either finding this year’s Daniel Spring (or even Sony Milano) or taking a flying on Connor Brown if he’s willing to sign for one-year at a very low base and some legit performance bonuses (he’s eligible given his long term LTIR status).
$1.25MM base salary (which would be this year’s cap hit), $750K for 40 games played and $1MM for 20G and 50P.
Give or take.
You say this about Jesper Fast every time I post it. I think it’s time to move on in this area, Ira. I know how you feel. I know how I feel. Let’s talk about fresh things.
Not to pile on here, but the word material does not mean what you think it means.
I’ll let my clients, my firm, the law society and our professional insurance provider know…..
OP uses it like I use “keep your powder dry” so I’m not surprised he’s stretching the logic of English. 🙂 Logic of English, now there’s a phrase.
Now, we could quibble about style, but it’s neither here nor there for me to tell folks how to express themselves. I’ve chided OP on spelling before (EG confidant vs confident, alot ≠ a lot, etc.), but he can overuse phrases or words all the live long day as far as I’m concerned.
I once wrote a proposal for a client, the ask was a significant amount of money. I spelled complementary the other way (complimentary). I was saved by a co-worker who clearly had better marks in school. 🙂
For me here are the areas the management/coaches have to align on this off-season.
1.Yamamoto and Kulak are traded for future assets. They are non-score 2RW and 3LHD.
2.The team should run three lines all season that can outscore the other team (3 headed centers)
3.Upgrade Top 4 defense
4.Accrue cap space for the trade deadline.
5.Manage more games when we have +2 goal lead at some point in the game
What did you do with Yammo in scenario 1? You mention Foegele, but not Yammo. Buy out or trade?
Sorry WG, thought I mentioned it. I dealt him to Chicago for Filip Roos.
Kailer for Kanga
What’s wrong with this?
https://www.secondcityhockey.com/chicago-blackhawks-2022-2023-nhl-season-recap-filip-roos-reports-updates-commentary/
Thanks
I do think Chicago is a legit potential destination.
Maybe they could put Yams on a line with Bedard & someone like Rocco Grimaldi.
I jest, but I do think Hawks will be looking for bigger forwards to complement Bedard.
Is there a compelling reason why Kenny shouldn’t be competing to sign Thomas Milic? He’s an undrafted 20 year old yes, but he’s been money in both the WJC and now the Memorial Cup. Looks like the Kraken have offered him a tryout. Time to use that Connor and Leon cache to attract an FA tendy?
He is eligible for the draft, so they can’t sign him.
https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/539074/thomas-milic
Sorry just saw that now. Where do you rank him as a draft prospect?
Voodoo yes, but you have to love Gs that handle the pressure well and win.
It kind of reminds me of Brady and Montana. All they did was win in college but they didn’t have the size or speed measurables and the draft undervalued them. I get the concern with drafting an overage skater but does that hold water with a G? Should they be expected to win just because they’re a little older?
Well Oilers love overage skaters so that should be a positive. I have him No. 110 overall on my final list with just two goalies ahead of him.
https://lowetide.ca/2023/05/29/lowetide-top-125-for-2023-final-edition/
I really like Milic and Spencer Sova from Erie (LD with decent size, can skate like the wind and put up 16 goals on a very bad Otters team in his D +1 season this year).
If you’re going there some big game hunting is more conceivable (I agree it’s unlikely, but Holland does seem to particularly value impact players).
A possible roster stealing some of your adds:
Nuge-McDavid-Hyman
Kane-Draisaitl-Hathaway
Holloway-McLeod-Kostin
Lavoie-Kampf-Ryan
/
Nurse-Karlsson
Ekholm-Bouchard
Broberg-Desharnais
Holden
/
Skinner
Campbell
All of Yamamoto, Foegele, Kulak and Ceci disposed of (yeah, this is unlikely to happen).
Karlsson at $7.5M (35% retained)
Bouchard $3.8M
Hathaway $1.5M
Kampf $1.5M (or Bjugstad)
McLeod $1.25
Kostin $1.1M
Ryan 1.0M
Holden $1.0M
That team is better than this years, pretty sure.
Holland also likes continuity when a team is close so in this situation just keep Bjugstad all things equal. But that’s a really good team, I’m down.
Some say this is a top heavy draft, I wonder if the Oilers will try to get into the 1st round. We wait
I can’t imagine that happening.
In order to acquire a first round pick, that would generally cost a good player on a good contract (plus maybe more) – what type of deal do you think gets the Oilers in?