It’s a weird build to the NHL draft and free agency for Edmonton Oilers fans in 2023. It’s one or the other, right? Either you’re heavily into the draft and prospects available at the first-round pick, or you’re looking forward to loud noises in free agency and in trades. It looks like quiet reading for Oilers fans this year. Here’s a thought: Are the Oilers jazz?
The Oilers need to go bargain hunting, and some of the most attractive options are young, inexpensive wingers being pushed for NHL playing time. There's real value. How many can Edmonton afford? https://t.co/vshQHVfczC
What position do they address with the second round pick? I’ll say defense.
Why?Since Ken Holland arrived four years ago, the Oilers have drafted 11 wingers, five centers, four defensemen and two goalies. I think defense is the preferred position.
Of those 22 players drafted, how many will play 100+ NHL games?I’ll say Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway, Xavier Bourgault and Reid Schaefer. That’s four.
Why do you hate Matvey Petrov and Raphael Lavoie?I don’t hate them, in fact I think both men have improved their chances in the last 12 months. It’s a tough league to survive in and 100 games is the lowest bar for NHL survival.
Are you sure about that?No. It’s a small trigger for the contrarians. Even now I can feel the pushback on keyboards. Soon, there will be great pieces of literature in the comments section (and I’m serious) about why 200 games, or three full seasons, is the lowest bar. It’s the kind of thing that has kept this blog in motion on the ocean for over 20 years.
You’re becoming more pompous as you age. Whereas you’ve always been an ass. We all have our issues.
Of the final 22 players drafted just before Holland’s arrival, how many have played 100 NHL games? Four. Jesse Puljujarvi, Kailer Yamamoto, Evan Bouchard and Ryan McLeod.
A-HA! Oilers can’t draft!There are more to come. I’ll say 6+ by the end of each career.
Who makes it, then? In that three year drafting window, the first-round picks and one of the two second-round picks (McLeod over 100, Tyler Benson at 38) made it too. I think Stuart Skinner (64 games) makes it, then it’s Markus Niemelainen (43), Benson, Vincent Desharnais (36), Mike Kesseling (9), Matej Blumel (6), Dmitri Samorukov (3) and Dylan Wells (1).
You’re ponderous at the best of times and today it’s worse. How MANY? JP, KY, Bouchard and McLeod are already there. I’ll pick Skinner and Desharnais as the favourites, with Blumel as the seventh. It could be more. We don’t have the full exposure on those draft photos yet.
Is 11 prospects playing in at least one NHL game over a three-year draft period a strong number? It’s a bad way to measure. The 1979-81 drafts produced 16 players, but the real reason it’s the best cluster ever is Kevin Lowe, Mark Messier, Glenn Anderson, Paul Coffey, Jari Kurri, Walt Poddubny, Andy Moog, Grant Fuhr, Steve Smith and Marc Habscheid.
Who is the top prospect in the system? With Holloway, Broberg and Skinner graduating, my choice is Xavier Bourgault. Depending on your criteria, it could be Matvey Petrov, Maxim Berezkin or Nikita Yevseyev.
Sure, but who do you like among those who could be there? I used two lists: Scott Wheeler (The Athletic) and Craig Button (TSN) and the top player on my list who is ranked below No. 56 on both is Kalan Lind. He is a LW for the Red Deer Rebels. He’s 6.0, 159, and Wheeler says he “projects safely as a 200-foot, bottom-six energy guy” but also says some believe he has more to give. His NHLE is 25.3, Reid Schaefer’s was 21.8 in his draft year.
Where does Red Line have him? No. 39, compares him to Ridly Greig. Calls him a major pain in the ass to play against. My only concern is his size and style of play. Injuries happen when you’re rugged while also being 6.0, 159.
Who is the top defenseman using the Wheeler-Button lists against your list? Beau Akey. He’s a RH defenseman, wonderful skater but 6.0, 173. Wheeler likes his offense, and his defense although says it could use a little polish. Red Line has him No. 75 and projects him as a 4-5D. Mentions his mobility and puck skill in a positive way.
Using the same lists, who is the top available goalie? Scott Ratzlaff of the Seattle Thunderbirds. Red Line compares him to Jake Allen.
If they’re all available, who will Edmonton take? I’ll say Akey. He’s a RH defenseman, that has higher value. He’s a modern blue, that’s a positive. His NHLE is 18.9 and that’s strong, too.
Where would he rank on your top-20 list? I’ll have the list up for The Athletic shortly after the draft, but I would guess he’ll be inside the top-5 overall. You have Bourgault, the three Russians, Raphael Lavoie and the three defensemen with NHL experience.
What defensemen with NHL experience? My list has 50 games as the graduation day, 25 for goalies. Markus Niemelainen (43 games), Vincent Desharnais (36 games) and Cam Dineen (34 games) all qualify as prospects and will be on the list.
Is it a good list? No.
Geez, take your time, measure each word. I don’t need to. Edmonton’s prospect list is poor. That can’t be denied. It’s also true that all available resources must be poured into the NHL roster. If Ken Holland can improve on No. 1 RHD by dealing Philip Broberg and any of the assets not on the big league roster, he should do it today.
Why doesn’t he? I’ve said this before, but the value on Broberg, or Holloway, or Bourgault, isn’t high enough to warrant a deal. I wrote a piece today at The Athletic, it’s about shopping the bargain aisle for good talent that should be plug and pay. One of the players I considered for the piece, but left him off, is Emil Bemstrom of the Columbus Blue Jackets. He’s a rock solid player, his cap hit is $900,000 for next season and he’s skilled. If Edmonton wanted him, and the ask was Philip Broberg, would Holland pull the trigger? No. Why? He has no cover for Broberg, not really. If Desharnais struggles, Broberg is an easy fix. In fact, Broberg might play more than Desharnais out of the box. Broberg’s established level of ability remains “rookie” and therefore his trade value is a match. I wouldn’t trade Broberg for Bemstrom, but man it would be nice to have an asset like Caleb Jones in the summer of 2019, to make that deal happen.
What about trading Cody Ceci and Broberg for an upgrade on RHD? Hmm. Who is out there and available? The Athletic trade board lists Calen Addison of the Minnesota Wild, but he doesn’t play versus elites. Andrew Peeke of the Columbus Blue Jackets is on Frank Seravalli’s trade board, and PuckIQ says he played elites and was on the good side of the ledger relative to his teammates, but that isn’t enough to trade for him.
What about UFA? If Edmonton had the money, names like Carson Soucy, who can play either side, would be interesting to look at for the Oilers. I love Radko Gudas but he’s older now and wonder about Justin Holl but never say it out loud because he struggled.
What’s the play, then? Trade Kailer Yamamoto for nothing but make sure you don’t retain. Sign the four RFA’s, keep your powder dry all summer and pray that a RH fourth-line center lands in your lap.
Rnh mcd Hyman
Kane drai brown
Holloway McLeod hathaway
Janmark acciari ryan
Lavoie
Nurse soucy
Ekholm bouch
Bro des
Niemo
Skin
Stolarz
22 man roster 3.4 mill change plus current 5 mill with Bouchard to sign…
Realistically probably at least a couple mill needed to make things work
2.0 hathaway
2.3 acciari (bjugstad)
3.5 soucy
2.5 brown
So 6 mill minus Bouchard. If they go 4.0×1 there’s enough to keep kulak (possibly even ceci or kulak) if they waive niemo
or add another vet low gamble then have 23 man roster and ~1 mill space
or aim higher on backup than stolarz gamble…
or pick kostin over janmark to maximize hard bastard theme.
Main point making is 3.7 off Campbell is gamble i think worth taking in likely the last brutally restricted cap ceiling year. I think a lot of players are going to be open to 1 yrs on contender as well.
I honestly like stolarz on a 2x975k type contract if medical staff think knee issues are something likely resolved.
His track record coming up through leagues, his size, his puck handling proficiency, his size and most importantly his perseverance give off a massive low buy with high reward payoff type potential.
I’d rather have another big tender tightening up his positioning/mechanics than betting reactionary wildfire catches longer or at right moments while advancing into dangerous age group to rely on athletics over fundamentals.
Last edited 10 months ago by maudite
AsiaOil
June 20, 2023 1:33 am
Looking at the Oilers defense brings you to the following conclusions:
Top 4
Nurse is a top pair dman who needs a better RD partner (and system) if you want him to keep eating the kind of tough minutes he has over the past 2 years.
Ekholm is an elite 2nd pair LD and can play 1LD if required
Bouchard is developing nicely and is fine at 2RD this coming year with Ekholm
Ceci is okay as a 2RD but not a great fit with Nurse
So the upgrade would be at Ceci’s position in the top 4 (we have no internal upgrade available)
——————
Bottom Pair
Kulak is very good as a 4/5 but there is a cheaper replacement available in Broburg
Desharnais is fine as a 6/7 RD
We have a cheaper internal replacement available in Kulak but a 5-6-7 defense group of Kulak-Broberg- Desharnais is solid
———————-
Realistic trade targets at RD that could make a difference are Pesce and Carlo. A Broberg for Carlo deal could probably be done given the cap hell in BOS – then you deal Ceci for a decent cheap 6/7 or 4C.
I dont like the idea of gift wrapping bro up at this junction….18/23 roster present w/ 5 mill cap space.
I’d prefer to free up as much cap anyway possible to the level off Campbell buyout.
Campbell buy +3.7
Yam give or worst case buy +2.7-3.1
Foggy deal possibly retain sliver +2.25-2.75
Kulak deal +2.75
(Space 14.4 -15.3 mill) 14/23
Klim 1 x 1.5 mill
Mcleod 2 x 2.0 mill
bouch 1x 3.5 mill
(Space 7.4-8.3 mill) 17/23
Rnh mcd Hyman
Kane drai xxx
Kostin McLeod lavoie/xxx
Holloway ryan xxxx/lavoie
Nurse ceci
Ekholm bouch
Broberg des
Niemo
Principal
Xxxx
Find a goalie in musical chair pile up (1×2 million max)
anti ratta
David rittich
Alex nexeljkovic
James Reimer
Anthony stolarz (I’d seriously consider this one)
With a Pickard level in bake again.
18/23 With min 5.4 million left.
4 guys 1.35 million per (ideally 1.1 mill per so you have flex in season for 23 man or ideally ~4 mill min worth banked at deadline).
Make your call then (primary big target for me would be lindholm if flames blow up).
Ekholm on roster is addition for more than last deadline. The consequence of that decision means starting light and giving the prospects a solid run up to deadline especially before I’m commiting to sending one of our last potential value defender contracts out prior to start of season.
When Tulsky eventually gets hired as a GM, wow that will be the day.
Phd in Chemistry. Blogs about hockey on SportsBlog Nation… to AGM to GM.
jp
June 19, 2023 8:38 pm
Eliotte Friedman today apparently “There is a significant curiosity among many teams about Connor Brown’s thought process, destination, and the likelihood of him joining Edmonton.”
You keep brining up old guy rosters. Is that to exploit a market inefficiency or because it creates the cap loophole of paying league minimum with performance bonuses hitting the cap the following year?
Apparently we can use this same over 35 cap loophole on Connor Brown since he was on LTIR.
Holland asks Broberg: Whcih would you prefer/
1) Sitting in the pressbox as the #4LD behind Nurse, Ekholm, Kulak?
2) Playing first pair in Bakersfield.
3) Playing a regular NHL shift on the right side with one of Nurse, Ekholm, or Kulak.
What is he going to choose?
I presume if all seven D are back and coming to camp Broberg and his agent are telling Holland and Woodcroft and Broberg wants to tryout on the right side, because that is not only where the opportunity is, but how he can best help the team.
I thin Holland asks that question to Jay Woocroft who discussed with Dave Manson…..
Of course, option 3 and I think he should play over Deharnais.
I don’t think there is such doubt that, of nothing changes in the incumbent 7 on the back-end, Broberg will see plenty or right side. He’s played right side on the Oilers and Holland has recently referenced he can play the right side (even if not ideal).
winchester
June 19, 2023 7:51 pm
I believe coming soon is a surprise Bjugstad signing for the Oilers.
Rondo
June 19, 2023 4:15 pm
Obviously the coach and the GM know Broberg the best and his potential. Only seeing him in regular season and playoffs, Broberg didn’t look very good for his age and where he was picked in the draft.
Holland deviated from Mckenzie’s list that draft. I’m not sure that’s a good strategy so early in the draft, though Detroit went completely walkabout with Moritz Seider which was an absolute home run.
Still, it’s a weird draft year for defensemen. Other than Seider and the oft injured Bowen Byram, I’m not aware of any defensemen from that draft that have really separated themselves. Most of the d drafted after Broberg in the 1st round spent some time last year in the AHL.
If/when he’s pushing up the lineup from the 3rd pair THEN start to use him in the top 4. Starting Broberg out on his off side on the 1st or 2nd pairing makes zero sense to me.
What would Vegas do? The thing is we know what Vegas did. How did Vegas build the right side of their top four out of expansion? And go the the Cup Finals in year 1, and become a contender right out of the gate.
They plucked a 3rd pairing left D Nate Schmidt from the Washington Capitals, and played him on the right side.
They made a deal to steal Shea Theodore who was splitting time on the left D on the 3rd pair in Anaheim and in the AHL Gulls, instead of forcing Anaheim to leave Vatanen (or Manson, or Bieksa) unprotected. (Anaheim was forcing Theodore to the left side, rather than playing him on the right side instead of Vatanen, Manson, Bieksa, and Stoner).
Broberg had more experience than Theodore and less than Schmidt.comparatively. Broberg has played both the left side and right side at every level.
I’ve quickly come to really detest that question. I’m also not sure the answer is at all relevant since every team and its available players are unique, making it difficult to generalize.
I have zero issue with Broberg playing on the right side. My main objection is forcing him up the lineup onto the 1st or 2nd pairing immediately. That being on his off side is just icing on the cake that adds unnecessarily to the degree of difficulty.
In terms of your WWVD question, the real answer is staple Theodore to RD Deryk Engelland for his first two years with the team, then eventually transition him to playing RD. Seems like you didn’t vet the answer to your own question very carefully.
Theodore plays the right side. Nate Schmidt is playing the right side in the top four in Winnipeg. Vegas got Pieterangelo as a UFA, and traded Schmidt.
He does now and has for a number of years. No question there.
Here’s a link to Theodore’s partners/teammates from 17-18 though. It shows:
Engelland 794 minutes together
Miller 115 minutes together
McNabb 44 minutes together
Schmidt 32 minutes together
The Oilers should definitely raid the Leaf’s closet again this offseason.
Go grab Bunting for Foegele money and laugh your way to the bank. If you need to trade Yamo to to it fine. It might actually be the only deal better than keeping Yamo himself.
Except Klimdros struggles with increased ice time against top competition. I like him (quite a lot, actually) while outscoring in the bottom six, but with less of a chance to put us on the PK.
and wonder about Justin Holl but never say it out loud because he struggled.
I’ve been wondering about Holl too.
I don’t watch a lot of the Leafs but he seems a lot like Mayfield as far as I can tell (he plays lots against elites, gets pretty good results doing it, but doesn’t get paid much for it and doesn’t seem to get much recognition for it).
Holl seems like one of the most plausible guys available who could actually perform equal to or better than Ceci in the same role.
I don’t think he’s an upgrade or anything, but if his salary is going to remain low he’s pretty interesting as Ceci cover (I wouldn’t go that route, but a Nurse-Ceci/Ekholm-Bouchard/Broberg-Holl D corp looks quite strong to me).
Yeah, it would essentially be swapping Kulak out for Holl (plus the asset and a little cap). Would fit team needs a bit better and add some legitimate cover behind Ceci.
I don’t really see it happening, but Holl does look like he could be a really nice value addition for someone if the price stays low.
Impossible to answer with certainty, but Holl has played top 4 minutes for the Leafs for the last 3-4 years and held his own.
He’s been top 3 in TOI vs elites all 4 years and was top 4 in 5v5 TOI/game the last 3.
He’s been between +13 and +16 each year. All his 5v5 raw numbers have been in the black every year. His results relative to team have lagged slightly but not much.
It’s a bit remarkable how Leafs fans could be down on him given what he’s done for the team for $2M a year.
You’d think he’ll get a major raise, but as you mention he gets no respect from fans, and there seems to be almost zero talk about him as a notable player on the FA market.
Maybe there’s a chance he remains a value deal on his next contract?
If Broberg can do the job in the top 4 on right defense, it is a gap level jump improvement in the D (with signifcant cap benefits) over debating between the difference between marginal options like Ceci and Holl.
Unless someone like Pesce is available, the best option is to give Broberg a shot, and make a deal at the deadline if he fails.
Or do people just want to see Vegas make Ceci or a comparable look inept all over again next spring.
I said in my first post “I wouldn’t go that route” (adding Holl). That said, I’d actually view adding Holl (and subtracting Kulak) as the best way to set Broberg up for success.
It would be 1) giving Broberg the 3LD spot unimpeded, and 2) adding a strong veteran 3RD to partner with him.
If/when he’s pushing up the lineup from the 3rd pair THEN start to use him in the top 4. Starting Broberg out on his off side on the 1st or 2nd pairing makes zero sense to me.
Sounds like we’re being telegraphed about Bro. Holland says Bro isn’t comfortable RS
So, either Kulak or Viking do, or given Holland’s comments about Bro needing to play, he’s gone
I have no problem trading players, I actually think it’s good for teams and reenergizes rosters. Sather always brought in new players
I’m just gun shy with this team’s trades since Hall. In recent times anyways. To me if you trade a young D posting the suppression numbers he is, sheltered or not, big, pedigreed and a world class skater, you better get the correct return
The correct move is trade Kulak and hire some injury cover. So Bro can replace Ek, soon enough. Or you’ll be looking for 2LD again in a couple of years. Holland said he doesn’t think you can win cups with kids on D. I say you can’t win cups with players not as good as your opponent regardless of experience level
I feel really good about our left-side D. He can play right. I think he’s most comfortable on left. Broberg’s development and growth weighs on my mind on a regular basis.
1) Sitting in the pressbox as the #4LD behind Nurse, Ekholm, Kulak?
2) Playing first pair in Bakersfield.
3) Playing a regular NHL shift on the right side with one of Nurse, Ekholm, or Kulak.
I’m a subscriber to what you said about teams. They are telling you something in words and actions, and Holland is pretty transparent in the last while of Oiler GMs
I recall Holl was a target here (Jaxon? YKOil?) before he ended up in TOR. I also hear from Laffs fans how much they hate him lol. Might merely be a lateral move, depending on how Ceci recovers from injury.
But some cap room with a lateral move between the two players is a win, if the cap is well allocated.
I don’t think that’s the real question, or at least not all of it.
One of those pairs has a probable future top 4 D on it and the other doesn’t. That’s an important part of the question/answer too IMO.
brobergstan
June 19, 2023 10:38 am
one thing i cannot understand is the values of dmen.
severson gets 6.25×8
orlov allegedly wants 8mil
gavrikov gets 5.8×2
mayfield is rumored to get 4×4
yet kulak has little value at 2.75 mil? ceci allegedly has no value in a trade at 3/25 mil?
Then you see people saying andrew peeke costs a 1st minimum to get, pesce will cost broberg, a 1st and a cap dump according to other podcasts, what am i missing?
If oilers need a top 4 dman it costs a first minimum. Yet both ceci and kulak played top 4 mins most of last season and were passable. Yet they are worth a 4th round pick and a role of hockey tape.
My guess is it’s a combination of fans over valuing players/prospects (draft pedigree, fancy stats, etc), and everyone else similarly undervaluing them (effect of playing with Connor and Leon, unfamiliarity, “weak division” etc).
Teams want to save money on 3rd pairing D if possible. Kulak and Ceci are fully valued third pairing D. I think teams would have interest in Kulak. Ceci is a legit 3rd pairing D, but he has mobilitiy AND physicality issues that teams that limit his attractiveness to many teams. The only reason Ceci got his contract with the Oilers is that Holland was desperate and couldn’t be choosy.
How much of your frequent comments about Ceci’s mobility issues are plagued by recency bias? He seemed to do just fine in the 2022 playoffs, by my eye.
I think it’s worth seeing how his return from injury goes and then upgrade at the deadline if necessary.
I have not be advocating trading any of the seven D. (Yamamoto and Foegele are the two guys who who should be traded).
I am advocating taking the Broberg out on racetrack from the test track, with Ceci as insurance until the trade deadline (if Broberg crashes in the the turns).
To be fair, pretty much the entire team was doing its best saloon door impression against COL. Most games were closer than the series results suggest, but the whole team was clearly outmatched.
To me that he struggles according to looks at stats with zone entries and retrievals is a sign he’s not fast enough. Could be that he’s overthinking. He’s at his max for sure playing top pair on this team
He likes to play a pretty passive game. He can make plays and pass, but like Larsson you just don’t see it on the Oilers. Now Larsson plays the game he’s capable of. What else can it be but coaching and systems?
Ceci would really benefit from a zone D system like Vegas plays. His strength is in zone D play. I think the constant defensive motion messes most of the players up. It takes a very smart player to not make mistakes. How many of that type are there?
Des would as well as he’s not that mobile. Bouch would because it’s easier and simplifies what he’s not great at…….
The less thinking, the faster and more instinctive they can play. Which suits the roster far better to me
Ceci has played top 4 his entire career and had a very good season with the Pens prior to signing with the Oilers – their fans were generally not happy he was not retained and we saw why in 2021/22 with a healthy top 4 d-man.
Might Kulak be a suitable partner with Nurse on a second pairing on his off side ? He’s probably on par , better wheels than Ceci and is paid slightly less.
Do you Lowetide Oilers fans(some of the best in the world) think the future playoff chance of this team will have time to win a cup?
This is rather vague so I’ll say yes, on a long enough time horizon. Law of averages being what it is.
If the gist of your question was within the window with Connor and Leon? Yes. Absolutely yes.
But I’m not faint hearted, and don’t shut off the game if they’re chasing the score either. I believe in the team, through thick and thin. They’re close. I’m not going to bail on them now after all the suffering of yore.
The NHL is essentially an efficiency contest and teams that realize that fact and build their teams that way tend to succeed.
The Oilers are banging up against the cap and, other than progression from a few non elite prospects, have little room to improve.
Meanwhile, a team like Seattle has zero bad contracts, no dead cap space, $20 million in free cap space and some premium prospects.
I think the Oilers window to win is the next two seasons and then aging curves will inevitably reduce the effectiveness of multiple players including Nuge, Hyman, Kane, Campbell and Nurse who all have NMCs.
Should the Oilers not win in the next two seasons, they will have to consider some radical surgery on the lineup to refresh it and that might include trading someone like Draisaitl for multiple younger impact players.
I don’t disagree with most of this but I tend to think Boston had one of the most efficient cap managements in the league last season and they were gone in the first round.
Stuff happens in the playoffs that doesn’t necessarily reward good management.
I think it is true that the Oilers poor management over multiple years has made their window shorter than it should have been.
One of the things lost in the era of certainty we are under now is just how much of this is about luck. Edmonton hasn’t been close in terms of efficiency compared to Boston or Colorado, and hasn’t been as creative/wild as the Golden Knights.
I also think they got a bit unluck when Aidan Hill arrived at the biggest moment of his career and went completely Hasek. Credit to Vegas, they were the better team. Part of that was a goaltender playing out of his mind, along with some ghastly play in a few important moments of the Vegas series.
Pretty sure the Bruins were fortunate that were able sign their top 2Cs for $3.5 million in their dying gasp but they have been very good cap managers overall.
Bruins management was lauded for the amazing contracts that Bergeron and Kreji signed. Its true, they had wonderful value for cap hit this past season but, as was noted at the time, they were 100% kicking can down the road and just deferring cap hits by one year – it was known they were going to take a massive bonus overage penalty of $4.5MM.
That was mortgaging the near term future.
OriginalPouzar
June 19, 2023 10:23 am
What about trading Cody Ceci and Broberg for an upgrade on RHD? Hmm. Who is out there and available? The Athletic trade board lists Calen Addison of the Minnesota Wild, but he doesn’t play versus elites. Andrew Peeke of the Columbus Blue Jackets is on Frank Seravalli’s trade board, and PuckIQ says he played elites and was on the good side of the ledger relative to his teammates, but that isn’t enough to trade for him.
What about UFA? If Edmonton had the money, names like Carson Soucy, who can play either side, would be interesting to look at for the Oilers. I love Radko Gudas but he’s older now and wonder about Justin Holl but never say it out loud because he struggled.
Is there an actual upgrade on Ceci in these two paragraph.
In isolation, sure Carson Soucy is a name to talk about but he played 21.5% TOI vs. elites his season and only has one season above 30% (just at 30.2%).
Ceci needs to play less TOI vs. elites this coming season, and Bouchard with a legit top LD (we have two studs) will help but Ceci has given the team ALOT the last few seasons as he’s been asked to do ALOT.
people who look at rapm charts, jfresh player cards, and etc see ceci numbers and go CECI BAD, send him to the moon.
however if you reduced ceci mins against elites im sure his numbers would improve dramatically just as tyson barries did and kulaks did after being moved to the third pair.
i refuse to accept that gavrikov is something worth almost 6 mil but ceci is worth nothing but sniffing salts and a bag of pucks.
Holland doesn’t do the kind of deals it would take to upgrade Ceci. At least often
What we should hope for is that Bro gets ample TOI and he and Bouch push Ceci to 3Rd pair. I’m on the side that see Bro ready to push, if given the chance, especially with good options for a partner. I expect Bouch to grow as well especially if he has Ek for a season
Holland doesn’t do the kind of deals it would take to upgrade Ceci. At least often
Is that actually true though?
Holland signed Ceci, back filling for Larsson (on short notice, mind you) who wasn’t exactly performing at his best here due to obvious reasons.
He upgraded on Jones to Keith. Holland then weaponized Keith’s cap space to extend Kane.
Bear was upgraded, or at least laterally improved forward corps depth, with Foegele.
Even the murky Lucic for Neal was still a win, considering the addition by subtraction.
JP and Barrie plus out for Ekholm and Bjugstad was an upgrade in a number of ways.
Lagesson out for Kulak paid dividends.
Samorukov for Kostin was a win.
Ennis played as well as one would have hoped for a 5th round pick.
Having looked at the picks that were surrendered there wasn’t a lot of capital given up when you consider the contributions of the players acquired, compared to who was eventually drafted.
Acquiring Ekholm wasn’t quite a blockbuster, but the kind of players on our roster that would constitute blockbusters are precisely the guys you want to keep for the foreseeable future.
None of those trades set the team backwards, and only one of which required significant assets to consummate. All of them were wins. Some of his trades didn’t work out, nobody is shooting 1.000, but the overall record shows a good number more improvements to the roster via trade than you’re suggesting.
I think Vegas, Tampa, Avs, Panthers and maybe the Canes at least would actively fix a pretty big D imbalance. Ekholm is really good, but adding a LD to the top 4 and playing a guy over his head on the other side, who isn’t a good fit with his partner, is a big problem. When it counts
To me to go all the way the D group and defensive system have to be excellent and the latter played well and consistently. Forwards matter less, if the other stuff is humming. To me organized play leads to more players being effective, ie score more. Not just the geniuses
For years we have seen and heard about ‘talent’, but in any iteration of high end forwards we have had in this era it isn’t what wins deep. Tampa doesn’t really have an elite forward except Kuch. Or Boston. Vegas has Stone. It’s hard work and effort directed to the right things that makes them so good
I think you are underrating Brayden Point and Steven Stamkos.
OriginalPouzar
June 19, 2023 10:12 am
Why doesn’t he? I’ve said this before, but the value on Broberg, or Holloway, or Bourgault, isn’t high enough to warrant a deal.
I agree with this. Of course, Broberg and Holloway would have trade value but I would put their value on the ice this coming season with the Oilers for ELC cap hits, and then over the next couple of years with very cheap second contract (Holloway COULD have a decent 2nd contract if he indeed pops for 40 plus points this season, which isn’t unrealistic) as more valuable to the Oilers.
Right now the questions is “where do you play Broberg”. Some, like me, think he should play nightly, over the likes of Deharnais, and with some real potential to push up the lineup, on either side. Others aren’t quite so high in the immediate but see him as at least a 3LD.
He’s one of 7 NHL d-man on the roster and “can play both sides” – he’s going to get lots of games and he’s at the push up/pop stage.
It would be shocking if Yamamoto was on the roster in October and it wouldn’t be shocking if neither Yamamoto nor Foegele are on the roster – there will 100% be massive opportunity for Holloway to grab a middle six/top six role on this team and he could provide massive value.
These guys have more value to the 2023/24 Oilers, and the Oilers of the next few seasons, than in a trade.
I guess I do need to add that even I admit it is a bit disappointing that neither Holloway nor Broberg are established enough in material roles to have more trade value than they do – more.
I guess ideally, if Broberg can step up, that makes Kulak available. And people seem confident Holloway can step in for Foegele. That would be wonderful. But. Who knows?
Trade Kulak & Foegele for the top 6 RW might make sense. But again… who knows??
barry.moore23
June 19, 2023 9:51 am
“Time’s real short you know the distance is long,
I’d rather have a jet but it’s not in the song.
Climb back in the cab cross your fingers for luck
We’ve gotta keep movin’ if we’re gonna make a buck
Let it Roll ………
Loved BTO. Met Randy Bachman many years later and did an interview with him, such a nice man. He did a live version of Blue Collar, just he and his guitar. A great moment for me, one I’ll always cherish.
jp
June 19, 2023 9:50 am
A Boring/Jazz lineup where Broberg gets a regular lineup spot and not much else happens.
Bouchard $3M x 1 (as speculated)
McLeod $2M x 3 (as speculated)
Lavoie $775k x 2
Toews $900k x 1 (plus bonuses)
Bonino $900k x 1 (plus bonuses potentially)
Holden $900k x 1 (plus bonuses potentially)
Kulak and Kostin return 2nd and 3rd round picks for the draft
It’s 22 players with $107k remaining under the cap ($83.5M).
Old guys for the 4th line and #7D (all of Toews, Holden and Bonino are 35+ so could be offered modest bonuses if needed).
Foegele and Yamamoto remain, but moving one of them would open space for some pricier/less boring additions.
How could any line up with, McDavid, Draisaitl, Kane, Hyman,Nuge, Ekholm, Nurse & Bouchard, be boring.
DBO
June 19, 2023 9:10 am
Mentioned this a few weeks back, but wondered if Montreal would look at a Jake Evans (4th line RHC) for Yamamoto. they have cap space. And Yamo gives them a more skilled player then Evans.
Evans gills the RH 4C for us perfectly. And saves $1.4 mill on cap. we get the lesser player, but one that fills need, cap and size.
It’s a fascinating idea. He plays too much versus elites, but had two pretty solid seasons previous to this one in terms of possession stats. Good on faceoffs, kills penalties. Interesting.
That would be great for Edmonton. can’t see Montreal wanting Yamamoto. They might consider Foegele. Evans makes $1.7M for the next two seasons. That would make for some money saved on the cap. Buyout Yamamoto and that’s somewhere around 3.7M on the positive side towards the cap add that to the $5M existing cap space. That’s would be a tidy piece of business. But why would Montreal want to do that?
Can we trade for that Kaliyev guy already? Make somebody happy.
In
Garnet hathaway 1.8
Acciari 2.0
Soucy 3
Stolarz 975
Brown 1.5 (bonus laden)
Janmark 1.25
McLeod 1.5
+12.05
Out
Yam 3.1
Foegle 2.75
kulak 2.75
ceci 3.25
Campbell 3.7
-15.55
Rnh mcd Hyman
Kane drai brown
Holloway McLeod hathaway
Janmark acciari ryan
Lavoie
Nurse soucy
Ekholm bouch
Bro des
Niemo
Skin
Stolarz
22 man roster 3.4 mill change plus current 5 mill with Bouchard to sign…
Realistically probably at least a couple mill needed to make things work
2.0 hathaway
2.3 acciari (bjugstad)
3.5 soucy
2.5 brown
So 6 mill minus Bouchard. If they go 4.0×1 there’s enough to keep kulak (possibly even ceci or kulak) if they waive niemo
or add another vet low gamble then have 23 man roster and ~1 mill space
or aim higher on backup than stolarz gamble…
or pick kostin over janmark to maximize hard bastard theme.
Main point making is 3.7 off Campbell is gamble i think worth taking in likely the last brutally restricted cap ceiling year. I think a lot of players are going to be open to 1 yrs on contender as well.
I honestly like stolarz on a 2x975k type contract if medical staff think knee issues are something likely resolved.
His track record coming up through leagues, his size, his puck handling proficiency, his size and most importantly his perseverance give off a massive low buy with high reward payoff type potential.
I’d rather have another big tender tightening up his positioning/mechanics than betting reactionary wildfire catches longer or at right moments while advancing into dangerous age group to rely on athletics over fundamentals.
Looking at the Oilers defense brings you to the following conclusions:
Top 4
Nurse is a top pair dman who needs a better RD partner (and system) if you want him to keep eating the kind of tough minutes he has over the past 2 years.
Ekholm is an elite 2nd pair LD and can play 1LD if required
Bouchard is developing nicely and is fine at 2RD this coming year with Ekholm
Ceci is okay as a 2RD but not a great fit with Nurse
So the upgrade would be at Ceci’s position in the top 4 (we have no internal upgrade available)
——————
Bottom Pair
Kulak is very good as a 4/5 but there is a cheaper replacement available in Broburg
Desharnais is fine as a 6/7 RD
We have a cheaper internal replacement available in Kulak but a 5-6-7 defense group of Kulak-Broberg- Desharnais is solid
———————-
Realistic trade targets at RD that could make a difference are Pesce and Carlo. A Broberg for Carlo deal could probably be done given the cap hell in BOS – then you deal Ceci for a decent cheap 6/7 or 4C.
I dont like the idea of gift wrapping bro up at this junction….18/23 roster present w/ 5 mill cap space.
I’d prefer to free up as much cap anyway possible to the level off Campbell buyout.
Campbell buy +3.7
Yam give or worst case buy +2.7-3.1
Foggy deal possibly retain sliver +2.25-2.75
Kulak deal +2.75
(Space 14.4 -15.3 mill) 14/23
Klim 1 x 1.5 mill
Mcleod 2 x 2.0 mill
bouch 1x 3.5 mill
(Space 7.4-8.3 mill) 17/23
Rnh mcd Hyman
Kane drai xxx
Kostin McLeod lavoie/xxx
Holloway ryan xxxx/lavoie
Nurse ceci
Ekholm bouch
Broberg des
Niemo
Principal
Xxxx
Find a goalie in musical chair pile up (1×2 million max)
anti ratta
David rittich
Alex nexeljkovic
James Reimer
Anthony stolarz (I’d seriously consider this one)
With a Pickard level in bake again.
18/23 With min 5.4 million left.
4 guys 1.35 million per (ideally 1.1 mill per so you have flex in season for 23 man or ideally ~4 mill min worth banked at deadline).
Make your call then (primary big target for me would be lindholm if flames blow up).
Ekholm on roster is addition for more than last deadline. The consequence of that decision means starting light and giving the prospects a solid run up to deadline especially before I’m commiting to sending one of our last potential value defender contracts out prior to start of season.
I haven’t had a chance to listen to this yet.
The man, the legend. Erik Tulsky.
Have a listen if you like analytics.
https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/the-dfo-rundown-ep-228-carolina-hurricanes-assistant-gm-eric-tulsky
When Tulsky eventually gets hired as a GM, wow that will be the day.
Phd in Chemistry. Blogs about hockey on SportsBlog Nation… to AGM to GM.
Eliotte Friedman today apparently “There is a significant curiosity among many teams about Connor Brown’s thought process, destination, and the likelihood of him joining Edmonton.”
The quote is reported here:
(https://www.yardbarker.com/nhl/articles/teams_seem_to_think_connor_brown_a_lock_to_go_to_oilers/s1_16454_38933823)
Sounds like a really good sign that Brown may actually join the Oilers on a cheap deal with bonuses.
Honestly, there doesn’t appear to be any better possible addition the Oilers could make for that kind of cap hit.
You keep brining up old guy rosters. Is that to exploit a market inefficiency or because it creates the cap loophole of paying league minimum with performance bonuses hitting the cap the following year?
Apparently we can use this same over 35 cap loophole on Connor Brown since he was on LTIR.
Yes, largely the market inefficiency. Allso that a number of the players have been tied to the Oilers, and Holland’s own past with older players.
And absolutely, the bonus possibility is a huge part of the appeal with C. Brown.
Holland asks Broberg: Whcih would you prefer/
1) Sitting in the pressbox as the #4LD behind Nurse, Ekholm, Kulak?
2) Playing first pair in Bakersfield.
3) Playing a regular NHL shift on the right side with one of Nurse, Ekholm, or Kulak.
What is he going to choose?
I presume if all seven D are back and coming to camp Broberg and his agent are telling Holland and Woodcroft and Broberg wants to tryout on the right side, because that is not only where the opportunity is, but how he can best help the team.
I thin Holland asks that question to Jay Woocroft who discussed with Dave Manson…..
Of course, option 3 and I think he should play over Deharnais.
I don’t think there is such doubt that, of nothing changes in the incumbent 7 on the back-end, Broberg will see plenty or right side. He’s played right side on the Oilers and Holland has recently referenced he can play the right side (even if not ideal).
I believe coming soon is a surprise Bjugstad signing for the Oilers.
Obviously the coach and the GM know Broberg the best and his potential. Only seeing him in regular season and playoffs, Broberg didn’t look very good for his age and where he was picked in the draft.
Thanks Rondo.
You would think management would be pumping up Broberg tires instead all you hear is 7th D behind Vincent. Something doesn’t smell right in Denmark.
Holland deviated from Mckenzie’s list that draft. I’m not sure that’s a good strategy so early in the draft, though Detroit went completely walkabout with Moritz Seider which was an absolute home run.
Still, it’s a weird draft year for defensemen. Other than Seider and the oft injured Bowen Byram, I’m not aware of any defensemen from that draft that have really separated themselves. Most of the d drafted after Broberg in the 1st round spent some time last year in the AHL.
Keep an eye on the Kings Tobias Bjornfot.
Taken 22 overall…116 NHL games played.
He’s now waiver eligible and the Kings don’t want to lose him so he’s likely their 3LD to start the season replacing Alex Edler.
Where is Clarke playing? The Kings are not going to run Bjornfot Clarke as the 3rd pair.
I expect Clarke will be 2RD paired with Gavrikov.
They’re trading Matt Roy?
No.
Durzi.
That’s already assumed.
But Godot is right on this one, they aren’t breaking up their 2nd pair to play Roy at 3RD.
Yeah they are.
OK then.
Anderson-Doughty
Gavrikov-Clarke
Bjornfot-Roy
Book it!
I doubt McLellan is going to breakup his shutdown pair.
Mikey Anderson and Drew Doughty are his match up pair.
https://www.capfriendly.com/depth-charts/kings
What would Vegas do? The thing is we know what Vegas did. How did Vegas build the right side of their top four out of expansion? And go the the Cup Finals in year 1, and become a contender right out of the gate.
They plucked a 3rd pairing left D Nate Schmidt from the Washington Capitals, and played him on the right side.
They made a deal to steal Shea Theodore who was splitting time on the left D on the 3rd pair in Anaheim and in the AHL Gulls, instead of forcing Anaheim to leave Vatanen (or Manson, or Bieksa) unprotected. (Anaheim was forcing Theodore to the left side, rather than playing him on the right side instead of Vatanen, Manson, Bieksa, and Stoner).
Broberg had more experience than Theodore and less than Schmidt.comparatively. Broberg has played both the left side and right side at every level.
Yeah, it is an idea that makes zero sense.
I’ve quickly come to really detest that question. I’m also not sure the answer is at all relevant since every team and its available players are unique, making it difficult to generalize.
I have zero issue with Broberg playing on the right side. My main objection is forcing him up the lineup onto the 1st or 2nd pairing immediately. That being on his off side is just icing on the cake that adds unnecessarily to the degree of difficulty.
In terms of your WWVD question, the real answer is staple Theodore to RD Deryk Engelland for his first two years with the team, then eventually transition him to playing RD. Seems like you didn’t vet the answer to your own question very carefully.
Sounds wonderful. But Theodore is a LHD. And where’s Nate Schmidt these days? What did Vegas do? LOL.
Theodore plays the right side. Nate Schmidt is playing the right side in the top four in Winnipeg. Vegas got Pieterangelo as a UFA, and traded Schmidt.
He does now and has for a number of years. No question there.
Here’s a link to Theodore’s partners/teammates from 17-18 though. It shows:
Engelland 794 minutes together
Miller 115 minutes together
McNabb 44 minutes together
Schmidt 32 minutes together
(https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20172018&thruseason=20172018&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=oi&rate=n&v=t&playerid=8477447)
The Oilers should definitely raid the Leaf’s closet again this offseason.
Go grab Bunting for Foegele money and laugh your way to the bank. If you need to trade Yamo to to it fine. It might actually be the only deal better than keeping Yamo himself.
I’d trade Foegele and keep Yamo to make this deal work but that’s just me.
Plus he and Nurse are buddies from the Soo days.
Money won’t work just trading Foegle.
Seravelli speculating the Oilers already have a team willing to to take on Yamo without a poison pill (DFO Rundown).
Good news. 👍
Good to hear.
So they are waiting for something, apparently?
How good would Tom Wilson look on Connor’s or Leon’s RW. If he’s healthy?
Problem is price, age, and health.
Who’s the younger version we can get for cheaper and re-sign for less?
a truculent winger who bangs bodies, will fight anyone, plays a pissed off style and can score goals????
MR KLIM
Except Klimdros struggles with increased ice time against top competition. I like him (quite a lot, actually) while outscoring in the bottom six, but with less of a chance to put us on the PK.
Yes, a healthy Tom Wilson would look great on Drai’s wing – so would Mikko Rantanen and David Pastrnak mind you……
Dare to dream.
Redundant when a team has a better version in Evander Kane.
Kane-Draisaitl-Wilson would be redundant.
I’ve been wondering about Holl too.
I don’t watch a lot of the Leafs but he seems a lot like Mayfield as far as I can tell (he plays lots against elites, gets pretty good results doing it, but doesn’t get paid much for it and doesn’t seem to get much recognition for it).
Holl seems like one of the most plausible guys available who could actually perform equal to or better than Ceci in the same role.
I don’t think he’s an upgrade or anything, but if his salary is going to remain low he’s pretty interesting as Ceci cover (I wouldn’t go that route, but a Nurse-Ceci/Ekholm-Bouchard/Broberg-Holl D corp looks quite strong to me).
It is an interesting line-up.
In this scenario, the Oil could trade Kulak for cap + assets. I loathe to trade Kulak, but I imagine he would return some decent assets.
Yeah, it would essentially be swapping Kulak out for Holl (plus the asset and a little cap). Would fit team needs a bit better and add some legitimate cover behind Ceci.
I don’t really see it happening, but Holl does look like he could be a really nice value addition for someone if the price stays low.
I wonder f Holl is any better than Desharnais?
What did you do with Kulak?
Impossible to answer with certainty, but Holl has played top 4 minutes for the Leafs for the last 3-4 years and held his own.
He’s been top 3 in TOI vs elites all 4 years and was top 4 in 5v5 TOI/game the last 3.
He’s been between +13 and +16 each year. All his 5v5 raw numbers have been in the black every year. His results relative to team have lagged slightly but not much.
It’s a bit remarkable how Leafs fans could be down on him given what he’s done for the team for $2M a year.
Given that usage record and the results, what are the chances he signs another bargain contract as a UFA?
No clue.
You’d think he’ll get a major raise, but as you mention he gets no respect from fans, and there seems to be almost zero talk about him as a notable player on the FA market.
Maybe there’s a chance he remains a value deal on his next contract?
If Broberg can do the job in the top 4 on right defense, it is a gap level jump improvement in the D (with signifcant cap benefits) over debating between the difference between marginal options like Ceci and Holl.
Unless someone like Pesce is available, the best option is to give Broberg a shot, and make a deal at the deadline if he fails.
Or do people just want to see Vegas make Ceci or a comparable look inept all over again next spring.
I said in my first post “I wouldn’t go that route” (adding Holl). That said, I’d actually view adding Holl (and subtracting Kulak) as the best way to set Broberg up for success.
It would be 1) giving Broberg the 3LD spot unimpeded, and 2) adding a strong veteran 3RD to partner with him.
If/when he’s pushing up the lineup from the 3rd pair THEN start to use him in the top 4. Starting Broberg out on his off side on the 1st or 2nd pairing makes zero sense to me.
Sounds like we’re being telegraphed about Bro. Holland says Bro isn’t comfortable RS
So, either Kulak or Viking do, or given Holland’s comments about Bro needing to play, he’s gone
I have no problem trading players, I actually think it’s good for teams and reenergizes rosters. Sather always brought in new players
I’m just gun shy with this team’s trades since Hall. In recent times anyways. To me if you trade a young D posting the suppression numbers he is, sheltered or not, big, pedigreed and a world class skater, you better get the correct return
The correct move is trade Kulak and hire some injury cover. So Bro can replace Ek, soon enough. Or you’ll be looking for 2LD again in a couple of years. Holland said he doesn’t think you can win cups with kids on D. I say you can’t win cups with players not as good as your opponent regardless of experience level
I actually agree with your overall point, but..
Did he say this?
2 of Holland’s 3 Cup winning teams in Detroit featured young defensemen as regulars (including on the playoff runs).
24 year old Anders Eriksson in his 2nd season in 1998 and 21 year old Jiri Fisher in his 3rd season in 2002.
He also had Bouchard top 4 last season (and this one) and both Broberg and Desharnais in the lineup this season.
I think you are mis-interpreting if you believe Holland is opposed to playing young Dmen on contending teams.
I missed that item on Holland saying Broberg was uncomfortable. Is it recent?
Holland said that Bro can play either side but is likely more comfortable on the left side.
I believe it was in the DNB interview piece.
He did NOT say he isn”t comfortable on the right side.
https://theathletic.com/4608375/2023/06/14/oilers-ken-holland-salary-cap-steve-staois/
OP is right I think. It was repeated at ON. My point being if Holland said that it seems unlikely they want to play him there to me
Ah. I understand. Thanks!
But the needs of the many (i.e. team) outweigh the needs of the one.
Holland asks Broberg: Whcih would you prefer/
1) Sitting in the pressbox as the #4LD behind Nurse, Ekholm, Kulak?
2) Playing first pair in Bakersfield.
3) Playing a regular NHL shift on the right side with one of Nurse, Ekholm, or Kulak.
What is he going to choose?
I think Holland asks the question to Jay Woodcroft who discusses with Dave Manson.
I’m a subscriber to what you said about teams. They are telling you something in words and actions, and Holland is pretty transparent in the last while of Oiler GMs
The operative word is IF.
I recall Holl was a target here (Jaxon? YKOil?) before he ended up in TOR. I also hear from Laffs fans how much they hate him lol. Might merely be a lateral move, depending on how Ceci recovers from injury.
But some cap room with a lateral move between the two players is a win, if the cap is well allocated.
IIRC, Nick Jensen was another target at the time.
the real question is. is a 3rd pair of
kulak-desharnais better than a 3rd pair of broberg-holl.
I don’t think that’s the real question, or at least not all of it.
One of those pairs has a probable future top 4 D on it and the other doesn’t. That’s an important part of the question/answer too IMO.
one thing i cannot understand is the values of dmen.
severson gets 6.25×8
orlov allegedly wants 8mil
gavrikov gets 5.8×2
mayfield is rumored to get 4×4
yet kulak has little value at 2.75 mil? ceci allegedly has no value in a trade at 3/25 mil?
Then you see people saying andrew peeke costs a 1st minimum to get, pesce will cost broberg, a 1st and a cap dump according to other podcasts, what am i missing?
If oilers need a top 4 dman it costs a first minimum. Yet both ceci and kulak played top 4 mins most of last season and were passable. Yet they are worth a 4th round pick and a role of hockey tape.
Maybe im missing something?
My guess is it’s a combination of fans over valuing players/prospects (draft pedigree, fancy stats, etc), and everyone else similarly undervaluing them (effect of playing with Connor and Leon, unfamiliarity, “weak division” etc).
Teams are will to pay for legit top 4 Dmen.
Teams want to save money on 3rd pairing D if possible. Kulak and Ceci are fully valued third pairing D. I think teams would have interest in Kulak. Ceci is a legit 3rd pairing D, but he has mobilitiy AND physicality issues that teams that limit his attractiveness to many teams. The only reason Ceci got his contract with the Oilers is that Holland was desperate and couldn’t be choosy.
How much of your frequent comments about Ceci’s mobility issues are plagued by recency bias? He seemed to do just fine in the 2022 playoffs, by my eye.
I think it’s worth seeing how his return from injury goes and then upgrade at the deadline if necessary.
Ceci was a twirling sign against Colorado.
I have not be advocating trading any of the seven D. (Yamamoto and Foegele are the two guys who who should be traded).
I am advocating taking the Broberg out on racetrack from the test track, with Ceci as insurance until the trade deadline (if Broberg crashes in the the turns).
To be fair, pretty much the entire team was doing its best saloon door impression against COL. Most games were closer than the series results suggest, but the whole team was clearly outmatched.
To me that he struggles according to looks at stats with zone entries and retrievals is a sign he’s not fast enough. Could be that he’s overthinking. He’s at his max for sure playing top pair on this team
He likes to play a pretty passive game. He can make plays and pass, but like Larsson you just don’t see it on the Oilers. Now Larsson plays the game he’s capable of. What else can it be but coaching and systems?
Ceci would really benefit from a zone D system like Vegas plays. His strength is in zone D play. I think the constant defensive motion messes most of the players up. It takes a very smart player to not make mistakes. How many of that type are there?
Des would as well as he’s not that mobile. Bouch would because it’s easier and simplifies what he’s not great at…….
The less thinking, the faster and more instinctive they can play. Which suits the roster far better to me
Recall the 2021/22 season where Ceci continuously made solid plays – very few mistakes, right?
Ceci has played top 4 his entire career and had a very good season with the Pens prior to signing with the Oilers – their fans were generally not happy he was not retained and we saw why in 2021/22 with a healthy top 4 d-man.
As luck would have it, Bruce McCurdy has just published a deep dive on Ceci and Kulak
https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/these-2-mid-roster-d-men-have-played-well-for-oilers-but-their-return-is-far-from-guaranteed
Might Kulak be a suitable partner with Nurse on a second pairing on his off side ? He’s probably on par , better wheels than Ceci and is paid slightly less.
Ekholm-Bouchard
Nurse-Kulak
Broberg-Ceci
Desharnais
Apples and oranges.
If it came down to trading one or the other , I’d trade Ceci .
NHL Sid manually tracked data during the playoffs.
He also did a deep dive into the Nurse Ceci pairing.
Hunter1909’s Q + A
Oilers have been in the playoffs and during the last 2 years losing to SC champions.
Do you Lowetide Oilers fans(some of the best in the world) think the future playoff chance of this team will have time to win a cup?
This is rather vague so I’ll say yes, on a long enough time horizon. Law of averages being what it is.
If the gist of your question was within the window with Connor and Leon? Yes. Absolutely yes.
But I’m not faint hearted, and don’t shut off the game if they’re chasing the score either. I believe in the team, through thick and thin. They’re close. I’m not going to bail on them now after all the suffering of yore.
The NHL is essentially an efficiency contest and teams that realize that fact and build their teams that way tend to succeed.
The Oilers are banging up against the cap and, other than progression from a few non elite prospects, have little room to improve.
Meanwhile, a team like Seattle has zero bad contracts, no dead cap space, $20 million in free cap space and some premium prospects.
I think the Oilers window to win is the next two seasons and then aging curves will inevitably reduce the effectiveness of multiple players including Nuge, Hyman, Kane, Campbell and Nurse who all have NMCs.
Should the Oilers not win in the next two seasons, they will have to consider some radical surgery on the lineup to refresh it and that might include trading someone like Draisaitl for multiple younger impact players.
Meanwhile a team like the Vegas Golden Knights wins the Stanley Cup banging OVER the cap by 8 million..
And after winning that cup, they go into this offseason with potentially $8 million in cap space with only a couple of players to sign.
Is that with or without the Mark Stone LTIR bullshittery?
Anyway, my point was that good teams find a way with the cap. And the Edmonton Oilers are a good team. No matter how much you disparage them.
Kane and Hyman have limited no trade clauses that overlay their NMC beginning in 2 and 3 years respectively.
Campbell acutally has a modified NTC, not a NMC
Draisaitl and McDavid will determine the trajectory of the franchise over the next 2 and 3 years
While that is certainly the case, IMO they extend beyond the window.
I don’t disagree with most of this but I tend to think Boston had one of the most efficient cap managements in the league last season and they were gone in the first round.
Stuff happens in the playoffs that doesn’t necessarily reward good management.
I think it is true that the Oilers poor management over multiple years has made their window shorter than it should have been.
One of the things lost in the era of certainty we are under now is just how much of this is about luck. Edmonton hasn’t been close in terms of efficiency compared to Boston or Colorado, and hasn’t been as creative/wild as the Golden Knights.
I also think they got a bit unluck when Aidan Hill arrived at the biggest moment of his career and went completely Hasek. Credit to Vegas, they were the better team. Part of that was a goaltender playing out of his mind, along with some ghastly play in a few important moments of the Vegas series.
The only reason they teach management skills at university is because they have no clue how to teach good luck. 😎
lol
Pretty sure the Bruins were fortunate that were able sign their top 2Cs for $3.5 million in their dying gasp but they have been very good cap managers overall.
Time to pay the piper.
Bruins management was lauded for the amazing contracts that Bergeron and Kreji signed. Its true, they had wonderful value for cap hit this past season but, as was noted at the time, they were 100% kicking can down the road and just deferring cap hits by one year – it was known they were going to take a massive bonus overage penalty of $4.5MM.
That was mortgaging the near term future.
Is there an actual upgrade on Ceci in these two paragraph.
In isolation, sure Carson Soucy is a name to talk about but he played 21.5% TOI vs. elites his season and only has one season above 30% (just at 30.2%).
Ceci needs to play less TOI vs. elites this coming season, and Bouchard with a legit top LD (we have two studs) will help but Ceci has given the team ALOT the last few seasons as he’s been asked to do ALOT.
people who look at rapm charts, jfresh player cards, and etc see ceci numbers and go CECI BAD, send him to the moon.
however if you reduced ceci mins against elites im sure his numbers would improve dramatically just as tyson barries did and kulaks did after being moved to the third pair.
i refuse to accept that gavrikov is something worth almost 6 mil but ceci is worth nothing but sniffing salts and a bag of pucks.
Gavrikov is far closer to Ekholm than he is to Ceci. He was just far from the madding hockey crowds in Columbus
I put almost no stock in all the “cards” and “charts” as they seem to not jive with reality much of the time.
I would take Ceci at $3.25MM over Gavrikov at $5.85MM.
Holland doesn’t do the kind of deals it would take to upgrade Ceci. At least often
What we should hope for is that Bro gets ample TOI and he and Bouch push Ceci to 3Rd pair. I’m on the side that see Bro ready to push, if given the chance, especially with good options for a partner. I expect Bouch to grow as well especially if he has Ek for a season
Is that actually true though?
Holland signed Ceci, back filling for Larsson (on short notice, mind you) who wasn’t exactly performing at his best here due to obvious reasons.
He upgraded on Jones to Keith. Holland then weaponized Keith’s cap space to extend Kane.
Bear was upgraded, or at least laterally improved forward corps depth, with Foegele.
Even the murky Lucic for Neal was still a win, considering the addition by subtraction.
JP and Barrie plus out for Ekholm and Bjugstad was an upgrade in a number of ways.
Lagesson out for Kulak paid dividends.
Samorukov for Kostin was a win.
Ennis played as well as one would have hoped for a 5th round pick.
Having looked at the picks that were surrendered there wasn’t a lot of capital given up when you consider the contributions of the players acquired, compared to who was eventually drafted.
Acquiring Ekholm wasn’t quite a blockbuster, but the kind of players on our roster that would constitute blockbusters are precisely the guys you want to keep for the foreseeable future.
None of those trades set the team backwards, and only one of which required significant assets to consummate. All of them were wins. Some of his trades didn’t work out, nobody is shooting 1.000, but the overall record shows a good number more improvements to the roster via trade than you’re suggesting.
I think Vegas, Tampa, Avs, Panthers and maybe the Canes at least would actively fix a pretty big D imbalance. Ekholm is really good, but adding a LD to the top 4 and playing a guy over his head on the other side, who isn’t a good fit with his partner, is a big problem. When it counts
To me to go all the way the D group and defensive system have to be excellent and the latter played well and consistently. Forwards matter less, if the other stuff is humming. To me organized play leads to more players being effective, ie score more. Not just the geniuses
For years we have seen and heard about ‘talent’, but in any iteration of high end forwards we have had in this era it isn’t what wins deep. Tampa doesn’t really have an elite forward except Kuch. Or Boston. Vegas has Stone. It’s hard work and effort directed to the right things that makes them so good
I think you are underrating Brayden Point and Steven Stamkos.
Why doesn’t he? I’ve said this before, but the value on Broberg, or Holloway, or Bourgault, isn’t high enough to warrant a deal.
I agree with this. Of course, Broberg and Holloway would have trade value but I would put their value on the ice this coming season with the Oilers for ELC cap hits, and then over the next couple of years with very cheap second contract (Holloway COULD have a decent 2nd contract if he indeed pops for 40 plus points this season, which isn’t unrealistic) as more valuable to the Oilers.
Right now the questions is “where do you play Broberg”. Some, like me, think he should play nightly, over the likes of Deharnais, and with some real potential to push up the lineup, on either side. Others aren’t quite so high in the immediate but see him as at least a 3LD.
He’s one of 7 NHL d-man on the roster and “can play both sides” – he’s going to get lots of games and he’s at the push up/pop stage.
It would be shocking if Yamamoto was on the roster in October and it wouldn’t be shocking if neither Yamamoto nor Foegele are on the roster – there will 100% be massive opportunity for Holloway to grab a middle six/top six role on this team and he could provide massive value.
These guys have more value to the 2023/24 Oilers, and the Oilers of the next few seasons, than in a trade.
I guess I do need to add that even I admit it is a bit disappointing that neither Holloway nor Broberg are established enough in material roles to have more trade value than they do – more.
I do think that changes in 2023.
I guess ideally, if Broberg can step up, that makes Kulak available. And people seem confident Holloway can step in for Foegele. That would be wonderful. But. Who knows?
Trade Kulak & Foegele for the top 6 RW might make sense. But again… who knows??
“Time’s real short you know the distance is long,
I’d rather have a jet but it’s not in the song.
Climb back in the cab cross your fingers for luck
We’ve gotta keep movin’ if we’re gonna make a buck
Let it Roll ………
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tIJ1-v9jv2Q
Loved BTO. Met Randy Bachman many years later and did an interview with him, such a nice man. He did a live version of Blue Collar, just he and his guitar. A great moment for me, one I’ll always cherish.
A Boring/Jazz lineup where Broberg gets a regular lineup spot and not much else happens.
Nuge-McDavid-Hyman
Kane-Draisaitl-Yamamoto
Holloway-McLeod-Foegele
Bonino-Toews-Ryan
Lavoie
/
Nurse-Ceci
Ekholm-Bouchard
Broberg-Desharnais
Holden
/
Campbell
Skinner
Bouchard $3M x 1 (as speculated)
McLeod $2M x 3 (as speculated)
Lavoie $775k x 2
Toews $900k x 1 (plus bonuses)
Bonino $900k x 1 (plus bonuses potentially)
Holden $900k x 1 (plus bonuses potentially)
Kulak and Kostin return 2nd and 3rd round picks for the draft
It’s 22 players with $107k remaining under the cap ($83.5M).
Old guys for the 4th line and #7D (all of Toews, Holden and Bonino are 35+ so could be offered modest bonuses if needed).
Foegele and Yamamoto remain, but moving one of them would open space for some pricier/less boring additions.
How could any line up with, McDavid, Draisaitl, Kane, Hyman,Nuge, Ekholm, Nurse & Bouchard, be boring.
Mentioned this a few weeks back, but wondered if Montreal would look at a Jake Evans (4th line RHC) for Yamamoto. they have cap space. And Yamo gives them a more skilled player then Evans.
Evans gills the RH 4C for us perfectly. And saves $1.4 mill on cap. we get the lesser player, but one that fills need, cap and size.
It’s a fascinating idea. He plays too much versus elites, but had two pretty solid seasons previous to this one in terms of possession stats. Good on faceoffs, kills penalties. Interesting.
love this idea, he would be a nice piece on the 4th line.
as long as the contracts break down as below it can fit with a 21 man roster.
bouche = 3m
kostin = 1.3m
mcleod = 2.1m
lavoie = 775k
That would be great for Edmonton. can’t see Montreal wanting Yamamoto. They might consider Foegele. Evans makes $1.7M for the next two seasons. That would make for some money saved on the cap. Buyout Yamamoto and that’s somewhere around 3.7M on the positive side towards the cap add that to the $5M existing cap space. That’s would be a tidy piece of business. But why would Montreal want to do that?
Montreal already have Gallagher and Caulfield they are not looking for a vertically challenged 10 Goal scorer.
Maybe they want a full set?
Weren’t they collecting Pitlicks not too long ago?
20 goal scorer
Would we rather have Jake Evans at $1.7MM or Nick Bjugstad around the same price?
Wasn’t Bjugstad estimated in the $2.3M range?
Just keep whispering that in the G.M’s ear over and over who supposedly is interested in Yamamoto.