A few years ago the ‘Riesen to Believe’ posts included a pile of youngsters who were projected to play feature roles. We’re long past that now, but two unrelated items from yesterday have me believing that the next rebuild is like that little sentence written on rear-view mirrors: “Objects may be closer than they appear.”
High draft picks may return to Edmonton by the end of the decade.
The two events (Frank Seravalli saying the Oilers have a team that will take Kailer Yamamoto “for free”, and Bob suggesting trading the second-round pick) indicate the next-ice age is already in the early stages.
I’m not arguing that it’s a bad idea, hell if the second-round pick gets an NHL player for next season who is useful and inexpensive, then music! I am saying offloading Jesse Puljujarvi and Kailer Yamamoto, for only cap dollars, needs something to balance out for the future. Example? Sign Klim Kostin and Michael Carcone. If Dylan Holloway and Raphael Lavoie emerge from the battle, that’s good news. If not, you have some trade assets. Edmonton’s depth is now at dangerously low levels.
Something has to be coming back. Right?
THE ATHLETIC!
- Lowetide: 5 quality Edmonton Oilers trade targets for low-budget offseason
- Lowetide: The Oilers and Russian draft picks haven’t worked — yet
- DNB: How Emily Cave found that ‘joy and grief can coexist’ in writing her book about Colby
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s Oilers roster construction missing one final piece
- DNB: What I’m hearing about the Oilers 2.0: Evan Bouchard offer sheet? Klim Kostin to KHL?
- Lowetide: Predicting Oilers star Connor McDavid’s 2023-24 stats
- DNB: Oilers GM Ken Holland on salary cap space, Steve Staios, 2023 NHL Draft
- Lowetide: What are Oilers’ best NHL Draft bets for 2023 second-round pick?
- DNB: Oilers’ offseason options: Comparing conservative and aggressive approaches
- Lowetide: What do the Oilers have in defence prospect Max Wanner?
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers targets early and late in NHL free agency.
- DNB: Edmonton Oilers AHL prospect stock watch: Is Raphael Lavoie NHL-ready?
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers position-by-position depth chart entering offseason
- Lowetide: Why Edmonton Oilers’ right wing overhaul is about to hit overdrive
- Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers guide to saving an NHL Draft on just three picks
- DNB: Why the Oilers are preparing to hold on to Cody Ceci this offseason
- DNB: What I’m hearing about Oilers’ offseason plans: Trade candidates, Erik Karlsson interest, more
- DNB: Oilers offseason priorities: A 10-step plan for ensuring success next season
- DNB: How the Oilers roster could soon look different
- Lowetide: Identifying a 2023 NHL Draft sleeper prospect for the Oilers
- Lowetide: Stock up or down for every Oilers prospect in the system
KEN HOLLAND HOME FOR THE AGED POSSIBLE 2023-24 ROSTER
This is the first roster I’ve done all spring that looks like something Ken Holland would do in real life. The additions have no few-tcha (hat tip to Johnny Rotten) but a useful present (if healthy). Jonathan Toews, Connor Brown and TJ Brodie (assuming buyout) are the unrestricted free agents; RFA’s Evan Bouchard, Ryan McLeod, Klim Kostin and Raphael Lavoie also sign. By the way, that noise you hear is Evan Bouchard raging and aging about the unfairness of this contract, but don’t worry that 8 times $10M he’ll get because of it will comfort him as he nears age 60; traded Cody Ceci for a third-round selection (I picked Florida because I wanted HH to have something to post about today); traded Kailer Yamamoto to Washington for futures with the understanding that someday never comes. It comes in at $482,500 under the salary cap of $83,500,000.
I used the Florida Panthers for Cody Ceci’s destination to make a point. The Panthers are overrun with RH defensemen (Aaron Ekblad, Brandon Montour, Radko Gudas, although Gudas is UFA) and are so much in need of lefties they are looking at bringing Theodor Lennstrom back to the NHL. You may recall Lennstrom signed with Edmonton, but played only in Bakersfield during the pandemic.
Florida keeps picking up useful players on waivers, waivers, and the Oilers never do it. Gustav Forsling was a waiver pickup. The last time Edmonton claimed anyone on waivers came March 21, 2021 (goalie Alex Stalock) and he was traded about one year later. The Oilers lost Anton Forsbery on waivers January 12, 2021, and that led to the Stalock transaction. That man Tulsky and his math people!
BAKERSFIELD CONDORS
I’m a little concerned about the Condors and what they’re going to look like in 2023-24. You know, everything looks fine up top until something goes wrong, and something always goes wrong. So, what will the Condors look like next season? Here is the current depth chart as we know it today, and in keeping with the roster above.
How many of these men are plug-and-play NHL players when called upon? I’ll suggest that Markus Niemelainen (shutdown LHD), Cam Dineen (puck-moving LHD), Phil Kemp (shutdown RHD) and the top two goalies (Olivier Rodrigue and Calvin Pickard) could slide in and help for a time.
If Edmonton isn’t going to sign many prospects, and that appears to be the plan, then optimizing the group on the farm will be key. I’d like to see a couple of signings this summer for Bakersfield. It won’t cost the moon and could be important later in the decade. Here’s the roster, take a closer look at the third line and third pairing.
Trust me when I say there’s no chance the Oilers sign three NHL free agents to be deployed in Bakersfield. However, the team could add all of Robert Hagg, Noah Juulsen and Justin Kirkland without doing much harm to the kids.
If one is evaluating realistically, something damn near impossible in these days of miracle and wonder, not many Condors prospects are going to move the needle at the NHL level this coming season. However, if you give Xavier Bourgault, Olivier Rodrigue and Tyler Tullio another season, maybe they can slide in to a depth role.
Justin Kirkland is the key signing. He would have a specific role in Bakersfield. The big veteran could mentor Jayden Grubbe, who is probably 18 months from the NHL. Kirkland is wicked smart. I’ve watched him. He would be an ideal winger for Grubbe in his first AHL season. Maybe a young RW like Tyler Tullio could complete the line and create an outscoring unit for Colin Chaulk.
Kirkland has played 50 NHL minutes at five-on-five in his career (this past season) and you can’t tell one damn thing in 50 NHL minutes. He didn’t score a point. He had a positive expected goal share five-on-five (52 percent) and all of his rel numbers were also impressive. Just 50 minutes.
The Oilers are focused on getting Stanley to Edmonton and that’s the ultimate goal. The organization can’t lose sight in the area of drafting and development. That Grubbe trade was a helluva deal, and this is coming from a guy who loves the draft. You rarely get a gift like the Grubbe trade. Edmonton has to max that deal. Sign Justin Kirkland, Ken Holland. You won’t regret it.
Robert Hagg probably gets better offers, but I like him in a mentor role. He isn’t going to get out of position, skates well, and he could be a recall. Key item: Helping Max Wanner.
CURRENT 50-MAN LIST (35)
- Goalies (5): Stuart Skinner, Jack Campbell, Calvin Pickard, Olivier Rodrigue, Ryan Fanti
- Left Defense (6): Darnell Nurse, Mattias Ekholm, Brett Kulak, Philip Broberg, Markus Niemelainen, Cam Dineen
- Right Defense (4): Cody Ceci, Vincent Desharnais, Phil Kemp, Max Wanner
- Center (7): Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Jayden Grubbe, James Hamblin, Carl Berglund, Brad Malone, Greg McKegg
- Left Wing (5): Evander Kane, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Dylan Holloway, Carter Savoie, Matvey Petrov
- Right Wing (8): Zach Hyman, Kailer Yamamoto, Warren Foegele, Derek Ryan, Xavier Bourgault, Tyler Tullio, Seth Griffith, Jake Chiasson
- RFA: Ryan McLeod, Klim Kostin, Evan Bouchard, Raphael Lavoie.
How many men on this list do we think can play a successful NHL season this year? Half season? I count two goalies, four LH defensemen, two RH defensemen (Bouchard to be signed), two centers (McLeod to be signed), three left wingers and four right wingers (Kostin and Lavoie to be signed).
Team strengths are center, left defense and possibly left wing. I think goaltending will be fine. Right defense and right wing are the issues. The team also needs a No. 4 center.
Does anybody get Montreal’s signing of Monahan? One of the stranger contracts I’ve seen: $1.985 mln base plus a $15k bonus for games played. Why bother with that structure when they could have just given him a flat $2 mln with no bonus? If you do have a bonus, make it meaningful (e.g $1.5 mln base plus $500k or more in bonuses).
Gotta be based on a handshake agreement.
MSL says to SM something along the lines of if you prove me wrong and vest the bonus with decent performance, you’ll be handsomely rewarded when it comes time for an extension.
It’s a weird one.
Sounds like the bonus vests at 26 games, which is 1 more than he played this year, so maybe it’s a personal thing?
I tried to dig and didn’t find anything that gave more insight than that (a guess would have the Canadiens French language media having the full scoop though).
Sounds like a bet.
Brown and Toews would be good veteran cover to start the season. I’m not sure why Toronto trades Brodie … he was their second best defenceman. Other than a depth signing, I don’t see Holland changing the defence much this summer. Having better 2-way forwards like Brown and Toews will make a big difference.
There’s talk Toronto may buy Brodie out.
It’s not just the Oilers who have cap troubles.
Wouldnt be surprised if BT buys him out and resigns him, similar to Stone. DFO show mentioned the buyout $$ for this year plus the cap going up considerable amount next makes sense.
Yeah makes sense if the player is game for that.
Seems that the buyout cap hits on his deal would actually be very forgiving:
23-24 – $0
24-25 – $2.5M
(on a $5M AAV – I realize I do not understand how buyouts work..).
But yeah, given the zero cap his this season, and only $2.5M next (with the cap going up) a buyout makes a ton of sense even if the player is still useful.
That would be a nice piece of business for TO if Brodie agrees to it … not sure why Brodie would agree to it though. His base salary is 7.5 million this coming season. If I’m understanding this correctly, if TO buys him out and he signed back for 2.5 million, he’d still be out 2.5 million before taxes/fees/escrow. He’s still a quality d-man (though a bit fragile) … he’d get more than that on the open market in a weak UFA year.
Am I missing something?
The reason it’s possible is that he’s from Southern Ontario, so a guess would have him wanting to stay with the Leafs.
I realized tonight that I have no idea exactly how buyouts work. Brodie is slated to make $7.5M in real salary next season, and has $5M cap hit. The buyout is 2/3 of his salary/AAV so the cost to the Leafs is $2.5M (ie – 1/3 or 1/2 of the salary/AAV). I have zero clue why it’s less than 2/3 of both numbers.
I assume he would actually take home 2/3 of his $7.5M in the transaction. If so, re-signing for $2.5M after a buyout would overall be identical to not buying him out (from the players perspective – there’s not much question it would help the team).
Looks like a couple more goalies will be hitting the open market.
One wonders whether Reimer will be playing for a paycheque or just for pride.
🙂
7 deadly sins.
*woosh
Connor would love to play with Connor……
https://twitter.com/lukegazdic/status/1671244250342719492
Of course, $$$$$ is important too, I would think…..
Tweet from Luke Gazdic
————–
What does Connor Brown think about possibly playing with Connor McDavid again? Full episode Sunday June 25th.
https://twitter.com/lukegazdic/status/1671244250342719492?s=20
—————–
There’s an excerpt from his interview with Brown in the tweet. Worth a look.
Ranking the success or failure of NHL organizations in the cap era.
https://theathletic.com/4593586/2023/06/20/nhl-franchise-rankings/?source=user_shared_article
The 1-2-3 teams on the list all started with multiple high picks, including #1 ov picks, right from the outset of the cap era.
But nevermind history, re-building is for suckers.
The cap was instituted 15 years ago.
Teams that started near the bottom have had almost a generation of high picks so there is really no excuse for being below average except incompetence.
Kings are crushing it. I do like how quick they *”rebuilt”*
Much of their success has to do with Kopitar and Doughty still being very good and not wanting to jump ship during their lean years (the LA market has something to do with the latter). Without those two in their lineup (especially Kopitar), they would be awful.
Without those two, LA would have an additional $21 million in cap space to wipe away their tears.
Pretty good chance they could find a player or two or three who would welcome the opportunity to live at the beach.
Was looking at crazy trades.
Here’s a doozy.
Filip Gustavsson for Cam Talbot.
Man. There’s still some dead money at the poker table. You guys keep telling me you can’t trade for emerging talent in this league.
Zero reason to ever rebuild in this league. Ever.
Those contemplating it for an organization should be fired immediately.
I have to disagree.
As much as Vegas are at the top of the heap this year, most Cup winners have home-grown lottery picks as the basis of their franchises:
Tampa – Drafted Stamkos #1 and Hedman #2 ov. Also drafted Drouin #3 and traded him for Sergachev.
Colorado – Starting in ‘09 they drafted Duchesne #3, the Landeskog #2 in 2011, then MacKinnon #1 in 2013, and Makar in 2017. They picked top-10 in 7 of 9 years.
Washington – Drafted Ovechkin #1 and Backstrom #4 or 5. And Karl Alzner 😉
Pitt – Crosby, Malkin, Fleury, Whitney, Staal. They were bad for years.
Chicago – Toews and Kane in b2b years.
It seems the majority of cup winners over the past 15 years started from rock bottom at some point.
I think that there are two barriers that would prevent this.
The first one is that as Lowetide likes to say at some point you develop a past. Joe Sakic went on an absolute tear trading for emerging talent. Now most GM’s are leery of making deals with him.
Player contracts aren’t liquid enough to buy and sell like stocks to manage your portfolio. It’s not an efficiency market.
The other issue is the problem with the unpredictability of player aging.
OEL, Suban, Martinez, Ekholm, Doughty, Burns, Pietrangelo…
Pretend they’re all 25 and you’re trying to predict which ones are playing top pairing in the playoffs at 33,36, or 38? Which guys are washed at 30?
Bad contracts are easy to acquire and buyouts are crippling.
While I’m sure Sakic is still involved, he is no longer the GM and likely isn’t dealing with the majority of the trade negation correspondence.
The Avs have also made 8 trades in the last calendar year (most small) so I’m not sure other organization’s are leary of dealing with the Avs.
Sakic also didn’t always crush in trades – he traded away Ryan Graves for peanuts for example. Letkhonen has been a great pick up for the Avs but I think the Habs are happy with Baron, as another example.
Graves was traded so the Avalanche could protect all of Makar, Toews and Girard in the Seattle expansion draft.
Sakic received prospect Mikhail Maltsev and a second round pick which was used to select Denver Pioneers outstanding D Sean Behrens.
Lehkkonen is playing on the Avalanche first line.
Not peanuts.
For me it’s Stanley or bust. Spend whatever you need to spend to make that happen.
I’m okay with another decade of darkness if it means even one Cup.
I am starting to think that Foegele has a real shot at being 6F come game 1 in October. He had a really strong wrong down the stretch and in the playoffs (with a banged up hand) and has filled in well there before. I’ve always been against Foegele in the top 6 for more than a spot start, thinking he’s better suited to the bottom six, but maybe there is need more. Mid-career and in a contract year.
Is Brodie still an elite skater? I don’t know the answer to that but, if/when he starts to lose that skating, perhaps he becomes less effective on this off side? $2.5MM seems like a bargain but I’m still not sure Ceci isn’t full value plus for his contract back to full health. He was so consistently solid the prior year remember.
Gregor keeps saying he thinks Brown gets a real/guaranteed contract in the $3MM range but that was some real intel on Brown and the Oilers yesterday – and on the cap friendly structure with bonus.
I would like to see someone with hands and also has a high Hockey IQ be given a legit shot with Leon. Where we get this player is after the free agent frenzy is over and someone on a cheap contract in late 20’s who wants the Leon bounce for one last payable contract next year. I was hoping we had this player in Benson Holloway or Bourgault but it looks like we rolled snake eyes on this 3 busting out to be 25-30 Goal scorers.
Bourgault has played one professional hockey season, one. I’m not sure what you expected of him in his first pro season but, if you are already changing expectations, maybe you have an unrealistic view of prospect development timelines?
Holloway is currently still in his ELC – he COULD score 20 plus this season – my goodness, to call him a bust?
Of note: your favourite acquisition target, Josh Anderson didn’t have a 20 goals NHL season until after he was 24.
The googler tells me he’s only ever hit 25 once. What a bust.
I didn’t pose my thoughts last blog because I thought them overly pessimistic but it really is Stanley or bust. Hopefully they break through but relying on aging veterans to stay healthy enough to get there seems to be the bet. Hopefully Holland being on limited time leads to Stanley and not to a sequel to the decade of darkness.
FWIW, the Oilers do not have an old team at all. Actually a shade younger than average.
https://novacapsfans.com/2023/04/19/average-age-of-each-nhl-roster-at-end-of-2022-23-season/
Looks like almost all the teams that are younger are rebuilding. VGK, FLA, TBL, COL, TML, CAR, BOS, PIT, CGY, SEA among others were all older to end this past season.
6 of the 7 oldest have recently won a cup.
This is nonsense.
23-Vegas had 11th oldest roster
22-Avalanche 10th youngest roster.
21-Lightning 7th oldest
20-Lightning 16th oldest
19- Blues 13th oldest
18-Capitals – 13th oldest
Stats from The Athletic via Natural Stattrick.
The fact that they’re old now has no bearing on their effectiveness at the time. In the 27 range was the average across the board.
Get a team with a core in their prime, same as it ever was.
The linked article listed the age of teams NOW not when they won the cup.
Point being, if you don’t win a cup while your core is in its prime, you’re likely in a bad way.
Correct, and you were proven that the Oiler core is in their prime NOW, not past.
I love it when we agree.
Yes they are but life comes at you fast.
Waiting on Broberg, Holloway, Bourgault etc. to join the core has its costs.
Hyman, Kane, Nuge, Ceci etc are all aging veterans counted on to make a difference and have been banged up come playoff time.
Every one of them is also younger than Pietrangelo, Marchessault, Martinez, McNabb and Reilly Smith. All but Kane are younger than Mark Stone.
You’re entitled to your pessimism, but everyone everywhere is aging. The Oilers you’ve listed are not that old, and all of them have lots left to give.
Maybe if our team didn’t still value truculence less guys would get so banged up. Needless hitting has a two way cost. Vegas didn’t back down but didn’t go looking for it. The more Brisebois looked for size and truculence in their forwards the worse Tampa has become. Maurice went down the path and his players payed. Turtle doesn’t count he’s a loose cannon
Hockey first, and players that are suitable for NHL playoff hockey physically mentally and stylistically
For sure, always hockey first. There’s been nothing to suggest any of those players got injured by ‘needless hitting’ though is there?
I don’t see Toews coming here, nor do I think Brown comes for 1 mil. Still wondering why Betboy hasn’t announced the cap
I don’t see Toews coming either although DNB at the Athletic keeps floating the idea.
Brown spent so much time on LTIR that he qualifies for the over 35 cap loophole in which you can pay league min plus performance bonuses. Those bonuses slide to the following seasons cap.
Spector and others also mentioning Toews (I think Spector is the source for the Toews/Keith bit).
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/rumours-are-swirling-as-edmonton-oilers-look-to-address-three-key-needs/
As a technical point, performance bonuses that vest do not alway get deferred and created a cap penalty for the following seasons. They are calculated at season’s end and added to the team’s accumulated cap hit – if they can be fit in (or a portion thereof fit in), there is no (or a reduced) penalty for the following season.
I don’t see the Oiler’s having a ton of unused cap at the end of the season but, if they can stay out of LTIR, they may be able to fit some vested bonuses in.
The cap is almost always made official after the draft and right near the end of June prior to free agency.
Its even less of a mystery this season give we know its $83.5MM as its contractually mandated in the collectively bargained 2020 MOU for the extended CBA.
Of curse, the union and the board of governors could negotiate and agree to an amendment of the 2020 MOU but, again, that would need to be bargained and, I believe, voted of by the entire NHLPA and BOG.
Unless Bettman and Marty Walsh are having the most secretive bargaining process one can imagine, there is nothing uncertain here.
Friedman reporting that Arizona has placed Zack Kassian and Patrick Nemeth on waivers fir the purpose of buying out their contracts.
One has to wonder how the Coyotes plan to construct a roster.
As it sits right now…with Nemeth gone…Arizona’s highest paid D is Josh Brown at $1.275 million,
Arizona has 4 NHL D under contract.
Their cap hit totals $4.025 million.
Mike Kesselring has a great opportunity ahead of him.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the cap floor was their internal ceiling. To get there, they’ll likely sign a handful of relatively high value contracts to “good in the room” leadership-type vets who are past their prime on one or two year pacts to get there.
Some speculation today that they’ll take Tyler Myers off Vancouver’s hands once his $5 million bonus is paid in September.
That would provide a $6 million cap hit for only $1 million in cash and they could likely flip him at the deadline for a pick.
Maybe OEL signs back in Arizona.
Lucic to the Yotes!!!
I prefer him playing feature minutes on the fLames. I hope they extend him for another 6x$6MM.
He’s good in the room … that’s priceless for the Flames when you play in a dusty old barn like the Saddledome.
Not going to happen.
The Flames have already given him permission to talk to other teams.
There are many ways to build a team and also replenish the farm (LT you noted that with the Kostin and Grubbe deals). I think it’s premature to be concerned about 5-7 years from now as a lot can happen both within and without the control of management. I think you’re seeing less reliance on draft/develop in recent Stanley winners (although I do think for Canadian teams, outside the Leafs, draft/develop is more important than it is for the preferred destination teams in the US). What I would like to see the Oilers do is find and sign more hidden gems coming off their entry deals/early in their careers (e.g. Chandler Stephenson types) that are close to popping.
Several NHL teams ate steak dinner for nearly a decade feasting off the scraps that fell off the Washington capitals table.
Cody Eakin, Grubauer, Stephenson, Forsberg, Burakovsky, and Samsanov.
The places to shop are usually contending teams in cap hell (lol us), or those with too many prospects to keep track off (Wild, Devils)
Could someone give a guy a hand and tell me how LT uses https://www.capfriendly.com/ to show his lineup with salary for an existing team? Or are you required to build a fantasy team from scratch? I keep getting a list view. Thanks in advance… cheers!
You can use the ‘armchair GM’ feature which starts you off with the players already under contract.
You can find it from the main Capfriendly page by following:
Interactive->
Armchair GM->
Create a team->
Oilers symbol->
And go from there.
Thanks so much!
I think a rebuild is obviously possible if McDavid and Draisaitl don’t sign another deal in Edmonton.
Tough for me to see a re-build if they do, though I suppose by ‘end of the decade’ they’ll be 32 and 34. Nah, very unlikely if they’re still Oilers.
So any chance you can clarify what connection you see between Yamamoto being given away for cap purposes, and potentially trading the 2023 2nd, that leads you to link Oilers and rebuild? (which I think is essentially synonymous with ‘McDavid and Draisaitl both walk’). I’m failing to see the connection.
I don’t think either man is going to stay if the opportunity is playing with Ty Rattie and Drake Caggiula. Instead of starting with a paper clip and trading up to a house, the Oilers are doing it the other way. That’s what I’m saying. You can’t just send everyone away and sign free agents, because sooner or later you’re going to run out of players other teams will accept in trade. Edmonton needs to get very good at acquiring inexpensive and useful talent. Ordinarily it’s the draft, but there aren’t many going through the system. The Grubbe trade is a fantastic example of what they need to do, Kostin too, if they sign him.
Thanks for the reply. For sure they aren’t going to be content playing with tweeners again, though that appears exceedingly unlikely in the short term, leading up to decision time. Fair enough though that the cupboards need to be re-stocked with young talent, and I agree with you that the Oilers can do more and better on that front.
It’s vital. If Nuge is actually eroding, then it’s going to be sooner than later. If Kane’s injury in any way impacts his effectiveness long-term, that’s a big deal. Ekholm isn’t young. So, when we say “well trade Broberg” or whatever, and I’m not saying that you’re suggesting it, there needs to be a plan coming up behind him. Oilers are the Germans in World War 2, they are vulnerable to breakdown of supply chains.
In some ways, the Oilers are like the Avalanche (minus a cup win) in that Colorado has been using draft picks to team build.
BUT, Colorado has been incredibly active in signing undrafted NCAA free agents to bolster their prospect pool and while all of them will not succeed, it’s very likely some will.
By my count, they’ve signed 7 over the last 2 off seasons and you can be sure all have been run through the Dawson Spriggings evaluation machine.
Its rather perplexing how inactive the Oilers have been in tapping into this source of talent.
I only see 5.
The Oilers signed 3 from NCAA in the same span plus James Hamblin.
They really haven’t been inactive, though more would also be great.
No..there are 7 plus Keaton Middleton who was drafted by Toronto but wasn’t signed by them.
Did you want to show your work?
Keaton Middleton never played NCAA hockey (OHL) and played 2 years in the AHL before Dawson Sprigings signed him.
1) Logan O’Connor
2) Ondrej Pavel
3) Jason Polin
4) Callahan Burke
5) Ben Myers
6) Sam Malinski
7) Wyatt Aamondt
The only Oilers prospects I see that were undrafted NCAA free agents are Carl Berglund and Ryan Fanti. Am I missing someone?
You needed to include Logan O’Connor, signed in 2018, before Holland was even Oilers GM, to get to 7 names?
Oh my.
That Colorado has been mining this opportunity for awhile does not affect its efficacy.
plus Vincent Desharnais, plus the departed Noah Philp from CIS.
can’t say I like your analogy
It’s better than the French, they never hang in a war long enough to establish supply chains.
An old joke…
French tanks have 5 speed transmissions…4 of them are reverse.
Yeah, I’m definitely not in the ‘trade Broberg’ or ‘trade Holloway’ camp, because inexpensive contracts and there isn’t a lot coming behind them. And yes, I guess the Oilers are somewhat vulnerable to supply chain breakdown, though the same can be said for many other teams. Fully agree adding more to the pipeline would be welcome.
Trading talented prospects reminds me a lot of days gone by. Team sucks? Trade your best forwards!!
Renny lost his job because he wanted to actually coach and BoB didn’t want that. The solutions don’t need to be gut yourself. That’s a management deficiency. Learn how to move assets and regain some
The GM should demand a system the team can play. In actual deployment they again couldn’t keep the puck out of their net in the playoffs. Hire people that can evaluate players. Foegele is now a top 6 solution, he of 3 points and a -2 these playoffs. Thank Gord he’s not up for a contract this summer
I hit post by accident. Work has me agitated
The Canes are getting great service out of young Necas, because he’s a good player. Yes he messes up but so do our vets. If Woody can’t make Holloway a useful player and probably Lavoie, that’s not good. It could save nearly 4 M in cap between Yama and Foegele
To me if seeing a couple of guys correctly and dealing with it stumps the crew it’s time for a change. How hard is it to find a RD that’s good at what is needed, offense or no offense, and improve? Is Pesce the only good rounded defensive RD in the league?
Can you afford a 2.75M 3rd pair D? Possibly at the expense of an high quality prospect? Even if he’s a great guy from around town and has solid stretches here and there? Probably not if you feel money’s too tight to mention
All of these issues, around upgrading a few non core players while not trading the future away, are self fabricated due to a lack of vision, desire, analysis, or ability, as I see it, compared to work I see other teams do
This bugs me because I want the team to again be the one others try to copy. Not make fun of quietly because of repeated fails at improving basic NHL roster construction and play, and pillage. The road map is laid out, to a great extent by people who were Oiler, or Oiler blog fans. Sheesh!
As a reminder, Woody and Manson are directly responsible for developing a good portion of the talent on the NHL roster. Not sure why you think that would change.
Also relevant, when Woody was here with TMc he was lauded by plenty of players for polishing their skills leading to more ice time. I can think specifically of JJ Khaira, sure there are others.
True, but he doesn’t have the same job now
I don’t give him a lot of slack because of a decade on an NHL bench, in his own words not exactly a rookie coach. But he managed to get schooled
Everybody makes mistakes. How he (and Manson) respond, and how quickly, is what matters to me.
The fact is he’s a guy the players want to go through the wall for, unlike the Sutters of the world. I have a sneaking suspicion he’ll adapt well and quickly, and the team will be fine. EDMs record since ManWood took over is exceptional, I see no reason it won’t continue (especially with roster improvements).
Personally speaking I was literally bitter over EDM choosing TMc over Nelly. I’m willing to give Woody some slack as he matures professionally in the world’s grandest hockey stage. He’s got a lot of track to run yet, I’d hate to send him packing only to see his already considerable results blossom somewhere else. Seen that movie before with players far too often to want to repeat with a quality coach the players respond so well to.
Some of those useless trade deadline deals are coming back to haunt the Oilers. 2 seconds for AA, a 4th for Mike Green, etc.
If you are going to throw those picks away like candy, the team needs to be resourceful in finding free assets.
keep in mind the team has found some diamonds in the rough.
-Ryan Fanti was a much lauded tendy who signed in edmonton.
-Noah Philp (wish him all the best) was a very astute signing
-James Hamblin has had a huge impact on the farm.
-Darien Kielb and Alex peters are unlauded but they played well in the ahl and are working towards nhl contracts.
there are a few guys i would have liked ken to sign for the ahl, namely akito hirose, hardy haman aktell, and ryan mcallister. but he has been a wizard at finding euro free agents.
Gaetan haas was a great find and altho he had ZERO offense he was solid defensively.
Joakim Nygard was highly esteemed but never found his footing.
Tomas Jurco had some really good looks in preseason until he grenaded his knee.
You mention two deals but it was one deadline and there was a large mitigating factor which was the abrupt stoppage of the season, a multi-month break and then a total and unexpected change in the league’s financial and cap structure.
The 4th for Green seemed meh at the time but who knows the effect it may have had if he didn’t get hurt (and the future if Covid didn’t send him to retirement).
AA didn’t work in the very short time but, without the NHL economics totally chanting, he would 100% have been qualified and on the roster the next season and a continuing positive asset.
Agreed. This follows Holland’s verbal about needing vets. Does it help if they aren’t better players than young guys? Not every older guy can play like Datsyuk or Lidstrom. Maybe Kenny has a bit of the ‘looking for Lucic’ we suffered from for years, except he wants genius vets that are total outliers
The only “older players’ that played down the stretch and in the playoffs were D. Ryan and Ekholm and I think they earned their ice (and Woody has, in the past, healthy scratched Ryan so he doesn’t just get to play due to vet status).
Love the Johnny Rotten reference, and also love the fire for the disection of the roster/depth chart that the draft always ignites in LT.
The problem I see is that at some point, the coaching staff needs to realize that they need to play the bottom 6 more if they want to get anything out of them. They will never find out if the bottom 6 is trustworthy if they never trust them. But with the tight cap, can they ice a better bottom 6 than they had in the playoffs this year? Something needs to give here.
We should try to remember the results of the Oilers bottom 6 this past season. This is 5v5 with all of McDavid, Draisaitl and Nuge on the bench:
Regular season
50-39 (56%) goals, 51% shots, 55% xGoals
1st round (LAK)
2-2 (50%) goals, 64% shots, 66% xGoals
2nd round (VGK)
3-4 (43%) goals, 47% shots, 50% xGoals
The Oilers bottom 6 was exceptional this season. Even against Vegas they played basically even but got outscored by 1 goal.
I’m not sure that ‘something needs to give’, and I also don’t think that they need to ice a better bottom 6 than they had in the playoffs this year.
My point was that if the coaching staff didn’t trust this bottom 6 that posted those numbers enough to not ride the hell out of 97 and 29, are they gonna trust next year’s version any more seeing how Bjugstad, Janmark, Kostin, etc may not be back due to the limited cap space. I had no issues with their results, but next year’s version might not be any better, thus trusted less.
I did not realize your post was about McDavid and Draisaitl playing too much.
I agree this is an issue. It also ties nicely to the fact that they haven’t trusted/given near enough reps to Broberg and Holloway. Those two could have been contributing by the playoffs last year if they had played more mins in the regular season (injuries aside). Granted part of the issue may tie to the Oilers poor run in November and December that necessitated winning a bunch down the stretch.
I 100% agree on not giving enough reps to Broberg (and have been vocal about this and was last season). The Ekholm addition combined with “needing Vinny” to help the PK stop bleeding took away some reps as we starting to come along and settle in.
With Holloway, I know there was alot of lower minute games in the weeks before he was sent down but he did get many opportunities. He started the year in the top 6 and, through the year, was given 3-4 more chances where he’d start up in the top 6. Now, I would say that Woody was maybe too quick to “pull the plug” but truth be told, Holloway tended to make some visibly negative plays when he was moved up and IMPORTANTLY, on a couple of occasions “made the same mistake twice”.
I thought the “bottom 6” (often a bottom 5) was fantastic this past regular season.
Its really tough to argue with 74-60 goals at 5 on 5 with McDavid and Drai both off the ice (let alone what those player’s did when stars cycled through them).
Its wild though: for YEARS, got killed with McDavid/Drai off the ice and the key was to get the bottom six to tread water and, all of a sudden, last year, they not only treaded water but killed in. Lo and behold, Drai w/o McDavid struggled and McDavid alone and McDavid/Drai didn’t outscore to near potential levels.
I said this during the playoffs and after the playoffs, to me, a major mis-step was Woody not only load up McCavid and Drai but constantly shortening the bench and going with 8-9 forwards – taking guys out of the game before they had a chance to get going and, in some cases, when they seemed to get going.
I think the 11F on this team that were playing were almost as deed as Vegas but they weren’t given the opportunity, even when playing well, in my opinion.
They went after Bjug and paid. He’s big and can take RS faceoffs, but in the end there’s a reason he was chasing decreasing contracts. Find decent players, use a system the players can execute, give them a purpose and play them
That reason is mostly health related, from what I understand.
Sad seeing that LHD depth chart of Sekera-Klef-Nurse and thinking what could have been with better luck. Add Larsson and they were a top 4 RHD away from being contender quality.
Sekera going from, arguably the team’s best, and certainly most solid, d-man (a low end first pairing/elite 2nd pairing d-man) to replacement level overnight (well, after long rehab periods) was a major blow to the org.