This is Riesen to Believe from preseason 2007. I have Sam Gagner and Andrew Cogliano at less than 50 percent to make the Oilers, and a few guys as “locks” who never saw the light of day. It’s funny how things work, then and now.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Why Oilers’ Dylan Holloway is in prime position for a major role
- New DNB: Five burning Edmonton Oilers questions ahead of the NHL Draft and free agency
- Lowetide: 5 quality Edmonton Oilers trade targets for low-budget offseason
- Lowetide: The Oilers and Russian draft picks haven’t worked — yet
- DNB: How Emily Cave found that ‘joy and grief can coexist’ in writing her book about Colby
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s Oilers roster construction missing one final piece
- DNB: What I’m hearing about the Oilers 2.0: Evan Bouchard offer sheet? Klim Kostin to KHL?
- Lowetide: Predicting Oilers star Connor McDavid’s 2023-24 stats
- DNB: Oilers GM Ken Holland on salary cap space, Steve Staios, 2023 NHL Draft
- Lowetide: What are Oilers’ best NHL Draft bets for 2023 second-round pick?
- DNB: Oilers’ offseason options: Comparing conservative and aggressive approaches
- Lowetide: What do the Oilers have in defence prospect Max Wanner?
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers targets early and late in NHL free agency.
- DNB: Edmonton Oilers AHL prospect stock watch: Is Raphael Lavoie NHL-ready?
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers position-by-position depth chart entering offseason
- Lowetide: Why Edmonton Oilers’ right wing overhaul is about to hit overdrive
- Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers guide to saving an NHL Draft on just three picks
- DNB: Why the Oilers are preparing to hold on to Cody Ceci this offseason
- DNB: What I’m hearing about Oilers’ offseason plans: Trade candidates, Erik Karlsson interest, more
- DNB: Oilers offseason priorities: A 10-step plan for ensuring success next season
- DNB: How the Oilers roster could soon look different
- Lowetide: Identifying a 2023 NHL Draft sleeper prospect for the Oilers
- Lowetide: Stock up or down for every Oilers prospect in the system
RIESEN TO BELIEVE 2007
OPENING NIGHT PROJECTED ROSTER (15 OF 23)
- L1: Horcoff-Penner-Hemsky
- L2: Stoll-Torres-
- L3: Reasoner-Sanderson-
- L4:
- Extra: Pouliot
- D1: Pitkanen-Staios
- D2: Souray-Greene
- D3: Tarnstrom-
- Extra:
- G1: Roloson
- G2: Garon
The Locks
- LW Robert Nilsson, 22: He looks to be the guy who will get first shot at the 2line minutes this fall. (He made it)
- C Kyle Brodziak, 23: After the Pisani injury, I don’t know how they can keep him off the team. (He made it)
Guys with Better than 50% Chance of Making the Oilers
- RW Zack Stortini, 22 in Sept: Pretty much all his arrows are pointing in the right direction. (Recalled in January)
- D Denis Grebeshkov, 23: Physical player who can move the puck, he has a nice range of skills and has a one way deal. (Made the team)
Guys with Less than a 50% Chance of Making the Oilers
- C Sam Gagner: He had zero chance on my last list, but Sweatyo suggested that he was a better bet than that and I know speeds felt the same. The Oilers are a little bit about exciting the fanbase this fall and Gagner is very famous after the CDA-USSR series. (He made it, strong season)
- D Mathieu Roy, 24- One thing he has going for him is that his skillset fits nicely with the Oilers most pressing need on D. (Recalled early January)
- C Rob Schremp, 21: MacT said that other day that he felt that one of Schremp, Gagner or Cogliano would have to make the team or it would be a big disappoinment (Made the team, didn’t hang around long)
- C Andrew Cogliano, 20: Of all the first year pro’s, Cogliano has the best shot imo to make the team out of camp. (He made the team).
Guys with Less than 10% Chance to make the Oilers
- LW Ryan Flinn, 27: Signed a one year deal July 17, here’s a guy who I can see playing a few games in the NHL this season.
- C Tyler Spurgeron, 21: I’d actually give him a better chance to make the Oilers if he were a year or two older (or if the Oilers didn’t already have Brodziak on the roster).
- LW Slava Trukhno, 20: He got into two pre-season games a year ago, and impressed many at the Golden Bears game. He had a tremendous amount of PP time in the same game tonight and came up dry.
- C Jonas Almtorp, 23: He’s the Euro Thoresen for this camp I’d say.
- LW JF Jacques, 22: He made the big club a year ago and didn’t take advantage of the opportunity. I’d bet he starts the year in the AHL and is recalled after ripping it up. (He made the team, but did not rip it up).
- C Ryan O’Marra, 20: He’s healthy and ready to go, but I think the Oilers will go another direction (at least to start the season).
- D Tom Gilbert, 24- A “perfect storm” offseason for the Oilers appears to have robbed him of his first real NHL shot. (He made the team).
Guys with ZERO chance to make the Oilers
- RW David Rohlfs, 23: There is some buzz about the college forwards in this camp (McDonald and Paukovich specifically) but Rohlfs is a guy who probably ends up in the AHL early in camp.
- LW Liam Reddox, 21: Would need to have an incredible camp to stay past week one. (He would play in one game)
- LW Stephane Goulet, 21: Big winger scored 15 goals in the ECHL last season. I don’t think there are 20 Oiler fans who really know the difference between Stephane Goulet and Liam Reddox, and I’m not one of the 20.
- LW Tim Sestito, 23: 2-way winger with grit who hasn’t played much in the AHL since turning pro.
- C Fredrik Johansson, 23: Apparently has shown well very early this fall, he’s a guy who might last a little longer than normal because he was sent away so quickly last season (first cut, due to a misunderstanding with his Swedish club).
- D Theo Peckham, 19: All positive reports on this guy, all he’s lacking is experience and that’s what he’ll get in the minors this season.
- RW Troy Bodie, 22: Huge winger got into 14 AHL games last season and he should play the entire year on the AHL farm team in 07-08.
- D T.J. Kemp, 26: Oilers signed him July 17. He’s an AHL defender. He’s a depth signing for the new AHL farm club.
- G Glenn Fisher, 24: .919SP in college this past season, and he’ll be the only first year pro among the Oilers’ goalie prospects.
- D Allan Rourke, 26: He’s played over 400 AHL games and 42 in the NHL (11 last year), he would have played 50 NHL games if he’d been an Oiler farmhand one year ago.
- D Bryan Young, 21: MacTavish likes him.
- G Jeff Deslauriers, 23: He’s buried now at the NHL level.
- D Danny Syvret, 22: Is now pretty much buried for this upcoming season.
- D Sebastian Bisaillon, 20: He has a quality shot and does some nice things. I don’t want to get ahead of myself here (like THAT’S happened ever!) but his career is somewhat similar at the lower levels to MA Bergeron’s.
- RW Colin McDonald, 23: Oilers signed him to a 2-year entry level contract on July 17. He’s a coke machine who might end up putting up better results than he did in college. Scored a goal tonight in the Rookies-Golden Bears game.
- G Devan Dubnyk, 21: .921SP as a rookie pro was 3rd best in the ECHL. Played in the Rookies-Golden Bears game tonight and apparently played well.
2006-07 OPENING NIGHT ROSTER
- L1: Horcoff-Penner-Hemsky
- L2: Stoll-Torres-Nilsson
- L3: Reasoner-Sanderson-Brodziak
- L4: Cogliano-Jacques-Gagner
- Extra: Pouliot, Schremp
- D1: Pitkanen-Staios
- D2: Souray-Greene
- D3: Tarnstrom-Gilbert
- Extra: Grebeshkov
- G1: Roloson
- G2: Garon
The eight open spots were supposed to be (based on my estimates) Robert Nilsson (done), Kyle Brodziak (done), Zack Stortini (didn’t make opening night), Denis Grebeshkov (done), Mathieu Roy (he didn’t make opening night), Andrew Cogliano (done), Sam Gagner (done), Rob Schremp (done). The surprises were Tom Gilbert and Jean-Francois Jacques.
We can’t do a Riesen to Believe today, because the roster is far from finished. We can say that, barring trades, 20 of the 22 (Holland says 22) spots are taken.
- Evander Kane-Connor McDavid-Zach Hyman
- RNH-Leon Draisaitl-Kailer Yamamoto
- Warren Foegele-Ryan McLeod (rfa)-Klim Kostin (rfa)
- Dylan Holloway-Derek Ryan
- Darnell Nurse-Cody Ceci
- Mattias Ekholm-Evan Bouchard (rfa)
- Brett Kulak-Vincent Desharnais
- Philip Broberg
- Stuart Skinner (Jack Campbell)
Until the trades and free-agent signings, whatever they may be, happen, we’re left with much uncertainty. This morning I’ll guess that Kailer Yamamoto is traded, Connor Brown is acquired, and beyond that we have to wait.
THE OILERS AND THE DRAFT
Plenty of rage currently about the Oilers drafting in recent years. I tend to view things “in a range” and then see how things play out. The only honest way to approach this is to go back to draft day and see what an individual ranking suggested at the time. Here’s the last several seasons and what we know so far.
2015: Oilers scouts deliver
The Oilers kicked my ass in 2015, landing four NHL players who have already passed 200 games. Connor McDavid was secured on lottery day. The three defensemen were chosen later on, albeit in a deep draft. I think we can give Edmonton some credit here. I had McDavid No. 1, did not rank Caleb Jones, had Ethan Bear No. 38 overall, John Marino No. 112 overall. I did not rank the two final selections on my list.
2016: A bad draft performance
My list grabbed the best player on this table in the second round, and the Oilers took a player with injury issues while exceptional talent was on the board. I think it’s absolutely fair to highlight the pick at No. 32 as a franchise turning point. I take no issue with the Puljujarvi selection. Why? I had him No. 4 overall. DeBrincat No. 15 and Benson No. 34. Your rage should be directed at the second-round pick. Me? I have no rage about this draft. I’ve seen enough to know that shit happpens and you can’t fire people into the sun because DeBrincat slipped through the cracks. You can learn from it though.
2017: A strong draft
I think the Oilers won the draft in the first round, by selecting skill over size. People don’t feel that way today, and Yamamoto has struggled recently, but Yamamoto (who I ranked No. 11, Tolvanen just ahead) was an impressive selection then and now. He was No. 22 overall, folks. Helluva pick. Stuart Skinner was unranked by me and I had Dmitri Samorukov No. 133. You might think Samorukov’s NHL story never got started, but he’s a talent and I think he’ll have a career.
I liked Ostap Safin (had him No. 52) and that looks like a poor selection but the young man was derailed by injury. I’m sure there will be many comments about Yamamoto being a poor selection but I would argue it was a terrific one. In fact, since it went against the team’s own previous bias, which is shared by many of you, I would describe it as a bold selection. No quarrel with this draft, and Skinner might be a big fly.
2018: A quality draft
This is a draft Oilers scouts should be proud of, although it’s about to cost management a pretty penny. Evan Bouchard was an inspired pick (I had him No. 8 overall) and he’s delivered whenever they let him on the ice. The turn after the arrival of Mattias Ekholm is universally credited for his success, but Bouchard was doing good things with Philip Broberg before the deal. I think Bouchard is going to be the last true impact player drafted in the McDavid cluster and it was a fine choice. I liked Ty Smith better, and he has not made me look like a genius at this point in time.
I had Ryan McLeod No. 25, that has turned into an excellent pick. I had Olivier Rodrigue No. 60, so would have to say that the Oilers 2018 draft was fully endorsed by my list. Oilers did well here.
2019: A rage in the cage
This is the currently contested draft year, and I understand. My ranking had Broberg No. 16 and Raphael Lavoie No. 26 overall, so would rate the Broberg pick an extreme reach and Lavoie a steal. It was a reach, this eclipses the DeBrincat miss (becoming the worst draft misstep of the McDavid era).
I wrote about him recently and received plenty of pushback but the fact remains he does have a solid resume and he is establishing himself as an NHL player. Holland impacted the selection and four years in he has to wear it. Also true: Broberg is tracking like a useful NHL player. Both things are true.
Lavoie was a good choice although he isn’t in the NHL yet, Blumel was inspired but went unsigned. There’s an ‘air’ of the 2016 draft about this one, but there’s miles to go.
2020
I had Dawson Mercer No. 10 and Dylan Holloway No. 25 and the difference was offense. We have seen math come true. As is the case with Broberg, it’s a sunk cost and Holloway looks like he can be a useful player, maybe even on one of the top two lines. Mercer was the gem. I’d take the credit but math is the real hero. Again.
I had Savoie No. 56 and Tullio No. 53, Berezkin No. 122. I like the draft, but the Oilers didn’t pick the better offensive player and that’s the problem. I find it funny so many people rage about the European (Broberg) being picked out of order, but there’s nothing on Holloway-Mercer.
2021
I had Xavier Bourgault No. 14, and Jesper Wallstedt No. 19, so fully endorsed the trade. I would have used the second pick on Olivier Nadeau, but we are here. I want to say that Bourgault is a very interesting player, he’s more fully formed than the scouting reports suggested. He has fantastic anticipation and I believe you’re going to like him when he arrives in Edmonton. I had Chiasson No. 90, Petrov No. 70. I like this draft very much, suspect as many as three players to make the NHL for a time.
Todd Nelson’s Hershey Bears win the Calder Cup by defeating Coachella Valley 3-2 in OT in Game 7.
No soup for Coachella’s star dman, the one and only Brogan Rafferty.
Despite the series win, Hershey was outscored 22-14 overall as all 4 of their wins were by 1 goal (including 3 in OT). CV outscored Hershey by 12 goals in their 3 victories.
Yamo will be moved as we have cheaper internal replacements available (Kostin) or a guy like Brown.
You want to keep Kulak and Fog if possible as they are not that expensive, have proven they can move up the lineup short-term, and performed well in the playoffs.
Ceci is the guy who needs to be upgraded through internal development (Broberg) or trade and I would start the year like this:
Nurse Bouchard
Ekholm Broberg
Kulak Desharnais
You see how it goes and upgrade at the TDL as necessary. A guy like Ceci might get you a late first at the TDL, not sure what he will get you at the draft, but RHD are valuable. It all depends on what is available and what teams are willing to pay for Ceci.
Top 4 RHD is the last significant piece of the puzzle and Holland has to get it right by the TDL.
People are slowing coming around, except it should be Nurse Broberg.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xo18tqi0lCY
What a twist!
————
Oiler Alert@OilerAlert
Conflicting reports?
On ON Everyday, @frank_seravalli says the #Oilers are more in the “want to” than “have to” camp RE trading Foegele.
He adds that Yamamoto might be easier of the two to move.
Also clarifies that EDM doesn’t want to trade Ceci unless they need the cap space.
————
(the conflicting report is Friedman’s earlier mention that the Oilers are ‘worried’ they might have to move Foegele if they can’t find a buyer for Yamamoto)
What about Seravelli’s earlier report that they likely have a trade set up to move Yamo that they are holding?
No idea. Maybe a question for Seravalli?
I have not listened to any of the source podcasts myself, but I know that Oiler Alert generally reports pretty faithfully.
If all this is true though, I guess it would make sense that they are holding if they don’t actually want to move him.
It’s all about clicks and trolling Oiler fans. When’s the next buy-out date. I can see several teams interested in Foegele.
Buyout window is currently open – until the end of the month, essentially.
I’m not questioning the source or that Seravelli said that, just why Frank has provided completely different positions on Yamamoto a day (or two) apart.
He was also adamant that the salary cap was going up more than $1MM, until he wasn’t.
I agree with jimmyn. I took the earlier report to say they had someone who is willing to take Yamamoto (and that buyout wouldn’t be necessary).
That they had not yet moved him implied they had not made the a final decision.
I don’t think the two positions are at odds with each other.
That was not my interpretation of Seravalli’s prior reporting. He said his “sense” was that Oilers had an interested buyer. Whatever that means, your guess is as good as mine. I chalk it up to speculation from an otherwise credible reporter.
I can’t believe that I just read a comments section baited with “the worst draft misstep of the McDavid era” with no mention of the Reinhart trade on the draft floor. So here we go. We’ll never know exactly what was lost, but there were so many nice things available with those selections.
As “trades” wasn’t the subject, your dismay is curious.
Dismay is overstating, but this wasn’t a mid-season thing. You don’t consider a decision to trade up, down or out of the draft, at the draft, a draft decision? They looked at their board and decided that they liked an existing AHL prospect more.
The entire segment of my post this morning was about draft picks. So, as much as the Reinhart trade impacted Edmonton’s history, it was excluded from the conversation. That doesn’t mean it isn’t important, just not germane to the post.
Michael Carcone re-signed for $775K in Arizona.
I would think he could have gotten a better offer.
Congratulations to Ken Hitchcock for his induction into the Hockey Hall of Fame.
This an amazing accomplishment, Im very happy for him.
Did Holland et al not “forecast” Broberg and Holloway? and in real time there were many questioning those picks?
I am not one to live in hindsight and say “we told you so” …but I do believe, on this blog in real time, people were unimpressed and considered both a reach.
and as LT says, that does not mean they won’t turn out to be good or excellent NHL players, it just means there were better options on the table in real time and those options have turned out better so far ….
The Broberg selection was supposed to be related to finding a replacement for Klefbom because apparently Holland knew he would not be coming back from injury so he reached at the draft.
That Holland had to expend additional assets to acquire Ekholm colours the evaluation of that pick.
A pessimist could argue that replacing Klefbom has now cost 2 first round (Reid Shaefer being one) picks, a fourth and Tyson Barrie.
Of course, the Broberg story is far from being complete but the cost of replacing Klefbom is very dear so, from the point of view of cap efficiency and roster construction, the expectation should be high considering the alternatives.
Broberg is developing precisely on time with a Klefbom-like trajectory, and performing similarly to his peers. Saying otherwise is crafting a narrative based in inflammatory rhetoric and not facts.
But, by all means, carry on. You do you.
None of that was contained in my post.
However, if Broberg is considered the Klefbom replacement “some day”, the cost of doing that becomes enormous.
3 first round picks, a second and Tyson Barrie to draft Broberg, and acquire Ekholm to keep the seat warm.
A reminder that in that time frame, Colorado addressed exactly the same position by trading two second round picks for Devon Toews.
Which approach do you think is prudent?
Your post plainly insinuated that Holland reached for Broberg due to organizational need since he knew Klefbom wouldn’t be back, and that having to acquire Ekholm was an indictment of that draft pick.
A) there is no verified information that the first part is true. For all we know, Holland just likes big, fleet, smart, Swedish defensemen, and…
B) Equivocating the addition of Ekholm to a failure in Broberg (be it process or player related) is a red herring. Bowen Byram is a third pairing defenseman and was drafted much higher, yet you regularly tout him as a defensive ace. He is a good player, who’s often injured and hasn’t yet achieved regular top-4 status. The only clear cut stud from that draft year is Seider. The rest are varying shades of grey. Broberg included.
Our sage host often reminds, “defensemen don’t develop in straight lines.” Broberg is only 21.
How many other Devon Toews like deals can you reference? That outlier deal is often cited as best management practice, but in fact happens so rarely that it serves as the exception to the rule.
The Ekholm deal was a quality trade, I have no quarrel there. To be fair, your point about having a placeholder is valid, but I think part of the problem was the organization was left bereft of viable assets after being rampaged by Peter “The Riverboat Gambler” Chiarelli.
The Broberg pick was a reach by any objective standard which Bob MacKenzie’s list certainly is.
He had Broberg ranked 15th.
https://www.tsn.ca/americans-set-to-dominate-first-round-of-the-nhl-draft-1.1323878
I’ve presented years of evidence before that shows definitatively that it is very rare for a defenseman picked in the top 10 to take several years to gain traction. I’m not going to repeat it but you certainly should take a look.
Byram is a second pairing defenseman and absent some guy named Makar he might well be playing top pairing…he certainly would be on the Oilers.
I don’t disagree for a moment that the acquisition of Ekholm was a good and necessary trade but it is also an indictment of a failed strategy that relied on the development a highly drafted player to fill a roster void that he has so far failed to execute.
And this all on Holland not Chiarelli. If it takes your 4 years to find a second pairing D and needing to sacrifice major assets to do so, you’re doing it wrong.
Your hobby horse has been that elite defensemen show themselves early — not that top-10 drafted defensemen rarely take several years to gain traction. Those are radically different positions. I’m sure you can appreciate the gravity of the nuance.
I’m still looking for comps of how commonplace a Graves robbery is in the contemporary NHL marketplace.
Broberg was drafted because he is big, is a world class skater, and you don’t see many D with that package. Per Holland my paraphrase
Add to that he has been the best in class for his country at his age at least after draft, that’s the story. Holland is a simple guy and tells us
Klefbom didn’t even know he was done or not. And it’s not like the Oilers only needed Klef at LD. Also age, you need pipeline. If he was playing elsewhere he would probably be coveted by us here, and actually playing
I’m glad I could put this to rest
Thomas Harley is even bigger, skates just as well and was picked 18th by Dallas…pretty much where MacKenzie pegged him just a couple if spots behind Broberg.
This is true.
Then there was a lot of forgiveness after Holloway excelled the next season. Thankfully.
I am very doubtful that Klefbom had any influence on the Broberg pick. In hindsight yes. But on draft day, no. Matter of fact there was critism that why pick a left handed D when we were loaded for years and in need of a top forward. (and had just previously picked Bouchard)
Two things I remember. Broberg arrived with Holland. I would suggest that the assessment of player was done by Detroit staff and Holland came to Edmonton convinced of the pick. Second, there was a report that the scouting staff was not happy with that draft and it was likely (guess) that Detroit’s list was superseding the Edmonton’s scouts list.
That’s an interesting find. Do you recall where that came from?
Sorry Ryan, I cannot remember if it was printed or from a friend. It was briefly discussed on the low tide one day as well.
If Holland knew that Klefbom was finished, it was most unfortunate that he traded two second round picks on Athanasiou just a few months before Colorado acquired Toews for the same price.
Are you arguing with HH? jt didn’t say anything about Klefbom.
In any case, the AA trade was 8 months earlier.
And Toews was very clearly not on the market at the deadline (the Islanders were headed to the playoffs and ultimately made it to the conference finals in the bubble).
I do not think the pick had anything to do with Klefbom’s injury, btw.
Im very high on Holloway. Its not in the numbers, I just like what I see and I think his play is an element the Oilers need more of. They have goal scorers, they need diggers. Smart, physical, tenacious, puck retriever and can make a pass.
Woodcroft is known for supporting his young players but it seemed that last years Holloway was quickly parked after small mistakes. He needs to turn him loose, there is a really good player here.
To my eye, Holloway had a bad habit of “making the same mistake” more than once and that’s what got him moved down the lineup.
If I recall last season, he was either in the top six (tough minutes) or 4th line/low minutes.
I think he needs legit middle six opportunities. Staple him to McLeod’s left wing and throw them out there in a real 3rd line deployment. Maybe Foegele on the right but it depends where 6F gets us.
He can shoot the puck pretty well. Just needs good coaching
I wonder what Hoglander would cost? I was on about him before. He was sent down to AHL, did not get along with the coach, plus I think his defence commitment was poor. Yet, poor team, struggling, lots of things could be in play.
As far as turning up an undervalued player, I think he might be one.
Skilled but definitely flawed, Oilers don’t need that in their bottom six in my opinion.
@frank_seravalli
Class of 2023 @HockeyHallFame
is a three goalie class:
Henrik Lundqvist
Tom Barrasso
Pierre Turgeon
Mike Vernon
Caroline Ouellette
Coach Ken Hitchcock (Builder)
GM Pierre Lacroix (Builder)
How did Mike Vernon get into the HHOF??? If he did, shouldn’t Moog and Ranford be in as well.
I, too will never understand the level of Mike Vernon praise.
Alexander Mogilny is a grievous omission.
criminal. NHL – 1 step forward, 4 steps back.
We need to maintain an outscoring bottom 6. We have our top 5. Foegele is critical to the bottom 6. Therefore, besides Yamamoto, a defenseman must be moved. Kulak or Ceci. Would like to keep Kulak.
I agree about the outscoring bottom six (and would add that Woodcroft needs to continue to play them, even in tight games).
I agree that Foegele is a piece of that but I’m not sure that Holloway can’t fill most of that gap in fairly short order – there are stylistic similarities to their games.
It is National Indigenous Peoples Day. As an Indigenous person, I have seen many Indigenous players become “almost” players. Players who almost had what it took to make the next step, but for whatever reason, just were not able to. One of those guys was my former linemate, Johnny. He was a player who was about as good a two way players as I’ve ever seen. Scrawny as a rail, but would often leave guys on the bad end of a yard sale. Could score big goals and was an exceptional team mate. Went to junior camp, and of course, as was the tradition in those days, if you were Indigenous, you were expected to fight or check, and often be lablled as, “Chief” He refused, and got sent home on the next bus. Today, Johnny has lots of struggles, addictions being at the forefront, and he does not even play today. One of many stories I have witnessed firsthand.
I have said for years that we are missing out on a huge pool of talent in this country, and if we continue to ignore the group with the highest birth rate, our status as a world hockey superpower is going to change.
Anyway, just wanted to share that with you lovely folks, and also to share a story that BC Hockey has written about me.
A Reignited Passion
An incredible story.
Are you seeing increased participation by Indigenous youth?
It seems there are more role models than was the case in the past.
Anecdotally I could confidently say yes, but I’m not sure of the actual numbers. When I see minor hockey associations do land acknowledgements and re-brand their logos, I know good things are happening. The whole dynamic around skilled Indigenous players is changing as well.
That’s great to hear and you should be very proud of your role in advancing the cause.
And with the role models, I think there were always role models, but any pioneer will tell you they aren’t. I mean, Michaelangelo probably thought he was third rate.
However, there were plenty of guys I looked up to because they were truly great hockey people and I always questioned why they didn’t get more involved in the game. Truth was, many of them learned to play in residential school, so while it was a refuge to many, I imagine it brought up some horrible stuff that happened outside the rink.
As I said though, kids today are born with that trauma and hurt in their DNA, but unlike generations past, they are born with a strength and resilience not seen in former generations.
That’s been the beauty of doing this work.
Progress is always slower than we would like but it’s great to hear that it is indeed happening.
That’s awesome, Ben!
Thanks LT!
Great story coach!
On another note, as a 1st year bantam, (I’m 50 now) I traveled to Fort St. James for a couple games with guys 3-4 years older than me because they needed a goalie. That Fort St. James team was one of the best Midget teams I ever played against. Completely destroyed us. 1987 or 88 I think.
Oh, I know exactly which group of kids that was. Those guys basically won provincials every year from Peewee all the way to Juvenille. A few of them went on to play major junior and quite a few of them played in the BCHL. Dominant team
That does not surprise me lol. Anyways, love your posts and all the best coaching again.
Stan Johnathan was a warrior and a classy individual who at 5’8” fought the likes of Behn Wilson, Bouchard etc Stan also scored 27 Goals in 77-78 3rd highest on a team that had 11 forwards score 20 or more.Goals. This record will stand the test of time. I seem to remember Bob Miller against the Habs on HNIC in Montreal score on wrist shot to be the record breaking 11th forward to hit 20. I think Bob grew up in the Provost area.
Thanks for posting, coach. (Always enjoy your contributions) I was hoping you’d post on this today – thank you. There are many reasons for Canada and Canadians to try and do better in relation with indigenous peoples. You brought home a lot through that personal story.
When my boys were testing the waters in hockey the place they went to was on our local reserve. I watched the local Indigenous people play, waiting before or after, I’m not sure if it was league or informal
I was blown away by how much passion and really good play was on display. They were not messing around in the games I saw. I realized how much love of hockey is in their community. On a more personal level. Massive pool of talent. It’s not the only thing that should be tapped far, far more. So much talent and passion
I hope the page is truly turning. Congrats to you CC on the recognition!!
Thanks for posting this and for sharing the story. “Give them food and water and surround them with love and they will flourish.” Wonderful. And provide opportunity and remove barriers. Not such a crazy coach after all. Pleased to have met you on the old al gore.
Other than Dick Tarnstrom (who never made any sense from his acquisition to them trading him away) I loved that defensive group.
Pitkanen was such a joy to watch. Souray was massively underappreciated. Gilbert emerged. Greene needed someone who knew how to unlock his game. Staios was above where he should be but was also classic steady. Grebeshkov could have been so much more.
Talent to spare. Unique things each could do superlatively.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lfQmrTXMQGg&t=78s
for viewing pleasure. its all 21 of connor browns goals in 20/21 season.
he played a ton with nick paul. 519mins and chris tierny 411 mins although he did get mins with stutzle and norris as well.
I have not watched this player a ton but he plays with pace, has great skating, high motor and great second effort on retrieving pucks and creating takeaways out of nothing.
He reminds me so much of zach hyman but less heavy on the boards. I like his compete level and his effort appears to be there consistently.
i always look at takeaways compared to giveaways per 60 and his numbers have been golden every year other than his 4 games in washington.
he did have a few shortys, some empty netters, and some flukey goals but this is not strictly a 3rd line banger, i think a competition between hoshot prospect dylan holloway, contract year foegele, and looking for performance bonus brown, could be a veeeery healthy thing for the empty top 6 spot.
his career average shooting % even strength is about 11.5%
His average shots per 60 in his 3 years (before ottowa) was 6.84.
think 15 mins a night.
15 x 82 games = 1230 mins
1230 / 60mins x 6.84= 140.22 shots. lets call it 140.
140 shots x 11.5% shooting percentage = 16.10 goals even strength.
I think if he came here and played on a skill line 16 5v5 goals would be easily attainable.
By comparison. Even strength goals.
Mcd had 38 goals last yr
Nuge had 21 goals last yr
Hyman had 20 goals last yr
Drat had 19 goals last yr
Kane had 15 goals last yr
Foegele had 12 goals last yr
and klim and ryan were tied with 11 Even strength goals.
This is a very good 5v5 player we are discussing who can contribute on either your 3rd or 2nd line and play good pk minutes.
the yr before.
drat with 34
mcd with 30
hyms with 21
kane with 17 (paced for 25+)
yammo with 16
ryan with foegele and jp tied with 10 each
I’m all for it if they can find contact terms that work.
Clearly the Oilers are an option for Brown but there will be a number of teams bidding and they can get creative with a bonus package and who knows how high on base other teams may be willing to go. Gregor seems to be on an island here but he thinks Brown will get a “real contract” in the $3MM range.
It would need to be a very low cap hit to have both Brown and Foegele on the team but I would definitely like it.
I don’t think Brown is in the price range
Seems to me Connor Brown is Warren Foegele at a different rate. Just visually and stylistically, they seem very similar.
I can’t believe the Oilers took Holloway when Mercer was on the board. THIS IS TOTAL MISMANAGEMENT BY HOLLAND et al.! #FIRETHEMALL
….am I doing this right, LT?
Excellent!
Ranking every team’s salary cap situation.
https://theathletic.com/4625691/2023/06/21/nhl-salary-cap-ranking-2023/?source=user_shared_article
If Broberg can’t step in to top 6, and Holloway top 9 this year,I see them as wasted picks
Broberg is already playing top six, and he played more games and more minutes than Desharnais at five-on-five. Had a better expected goals (58.7 percent), too. Second only to Ekholm, who played just 21 games.
The amount of time spent on burying European players drafted by the Oilers is incredible.
Broberg proved ready for that last year and was settling in very nicely – Ekholm came and then they “needed” Vinny to save the PK and the dynamic deployment changed.
I don’t think Vinny defends “better than” Broberg at 5 on 5 – different styles and I think Broberg needs to play. nightly, over Vinny.
Being a math blog, I’m surprised you had Smith above Bouchard. IIRC Bouchard posted one of the best draft seasons ever for an OHL defenseman.
Smith’s math was outstanding.
https://theathletic.com/342454/2018/05/04/lowetide-ty-smith-a-quality-fit-for-the-oilers-at-no-10-overall/
Better than Bouchard’s?
Did you read the piece? Smith’s defensive numbers were fantastic.
I did not. I’m no longer a subscriber.
Ah. Well that explains it. Smith’s defensive numbers towered over his fellow defenders. It was eye-popping and I placed Smith quite high because of it.
I remember that draft quite well. I was hoping Thin Hughes would fall to us due to his big brain and superlative skating. After that I was interested in either of the eventual NYI picks, Whalstrom or Dobson because both fit a need and both were reported to have good boots.
I wasn’t disappointed we drafted Old Man Bouch (he was next on my list), but one of the few I didn’t want was Smith. Reason being, he’s tiny. It’s one thing to dominate your teenage peers when you’re a smurf, it’s another thing entirely when you’re a rearguard in the fastest and most difficult men’s league on the planet.
I know math recommends, but the map isn’t the territory. For every Ennis, Cammalleri, St. Louis or Ellis, there are scores of players who couldn’t… make the jump, due to size. The NHL is punishing for above average sized humans, being pint sized is an enormous challenge to add on to the already difficult task of carving out a career.
Agreed. Undersized players need to be elite at every level, or just take a player that doesn’t have even more obstacles to overcome. It’s never worked out for our team for long
Yama is fading out because while he’s a good skater he lacks enough there, and he’s getting destroyed physically. It’s absolutely ridiculous that he tries to be physical. Even more ridiculous the Oilers aren’t trying to get him to a style that suits his abilities in the NHL. Or are encouraging it. They still value thuggery too much. It was cute in juniors, now it’s life altering
Picks like Bourgault and Lavoie were easy picks anyone could have made.
Broberg was a stretch and has not worked out well yet.
The better GM’s pick outside of the consensus sometimes and win.
Holland has been average in the draft since he’s been with Edmonton
Broberg is right on schedule. Two years in Sweden. A really good year in the AHL. And a solid rookie season in the NHL. It is time to play him.
He is right with all the D in his draft class, except for the two guys drafted ahead of him.
Broberg will be fine, as will Holloway. Broberg can play 15 minutes as a 3rd pair guy and Holloway can play in the top 9. In a cap tight world, once your prospects are capable, you stick them in the lineup and ship off the higher priced guys. That’s just the way it works.
Holland said why he reached on Bro. I think he’s going to be right
Holloway has improved well once settled, each step. He’s been hurt a lot and hopefully that’s not a thing, I think if he’s allowed to play he’ll eat Foegele and Yama’s lunches on the hurry. Maybe some other fellas as well
I agree with this but, as of now, remain unsure that Woodcroft/Manson will indeed play Broberg those minutes. The PK is a thing and, last we saw, they clearly trusted Vinny over Phillip.
Of course, Phillip will see ice and he may need to force himself up the depth chart – tough to “show that” with prior deployment but he may need to find a way (and as a high pedigree elite skater, he should be able to).
This kinda reminds me of when I still believed in the Austins, and was still conditioned by life through the pre-Katz team budget, where I actually (sorta, a little) hoped that support through the draft and farm wouldn’t punch ‘too high.’
I figured we had our core talent locked down. What we needed was useful dudes Oil can re-sign contract over contract who won’t demand too much.
Silly, I know.
More generally, do you have a summary of your feelings on Oiler drafting under Holland?
There are (vs. your lists) two first round reaches and one equally out-valued pick (Broberg +8, Holloway +11, Bourgault -8). Also the Lavoie ‘steal’ vs. your list.
Munzenberger was a reach at 90, but the Oilers still picked your #70 and #90 with later picks. Plus Tullio and Savoie the previous year taken 50+ spots below where you’d ranked them.
So there were some reach picks, but would it be fair to say overall the Oilers did a pretty good job of picking players that were endorsed by the math?
I tend to view the scouting director as the person who makes the decisions, so the 2019 draft is an outlier. I will say that Tyler Wright has done an excellent job imo, specifically drafting forwards with major upside outside the first round.
I don’t think his shutdown defensemen (Munzenberger, Yevseyev) are going to play top-four D if they make it, but his more complete defensive bet (Max Wanner) looks like quality.
The only downbeat is his first-round picks don’t bring enough offense.
NHLE’s in draft years for Holloway (13), Bourgault (32), Schaeffer (22) produced one player who we could reasonably project as a top-six forward in the NHL. Now Holloway has a chance, and did make progress, but for me that’s a bit of a problem area.
After the first round, his forwards selected are very good. Savoie, Tullio, Berezkin, Chiasson, Petrov, Lachance, even Maatta although I think they were looking for a future fourth-line center.
So, I like Wright so far. The worry is how low he’s willing to go in terms of projectable offense from his first-round picks.
Thanks for the replies, and that’s all very fair.
With Holloway I do think it may be reasonable to doubt the accuracy of his draft year NHLE a bit. He had an unusual path to the draft (AJHL then a young player in college) and his NHLEs since have been more fitting of his draft position (42 in NCAA and 28 in AHL).
It’s definitely true though that Holloway’s offense was not screaming mid-1st round pick.
Wow, I am very surprised to see that strong a take when the ‘math’ choice on the flip side was Kaliyev.
Hammering the Broberg pick vs. Zegras, Boldy, Caufield is more understandable.
So do we take this as Kaliyev >> Broberg (in your opinion) today? I don’t see that at all, but obviously don’t know exactly how you feel about each player.
I don’t get to change the rankings. Kaliyev had an NHLE of 40 in the OHL, that’s a strong number in the world’s best junior league.
Zegras (33 NHLE), Boldy (34 NHLE), Caufield (32 NHLE) all trailed Turcotte (44).
One of the things we all do, all of us, is remember certain things and allow others to fall away. Zegras has turned out very well, but he was the third player drafted from his team. Turcotte was the complementary player, and the 16 games were a clue, but most didn’t pick up on it.
That’s why publishing your work before the draft is important. It gives credibility when things work out as you suggest (I don’t mean you specifically).
What I have found, and most don’t want to hear, is that every model is flawed and a lot of this has to do with luck. Draft the best math kids, hope for the best.
Yes, no quarrel with your original ranking of Kaliyev based on his NHLE.
Since your look today incorporated how the picks turned out I assumed your ‘worst draft misstep of the McDavid era’ statement was being applied even with the benefit of hindsight (ie – you still feel that Broberg over your preferred pick Kaliyev, was a major misstep). Apologies for reading more into it than it sounds like was intended.
And agreed that luck plays a large role in drafting, but that math is an important guide.
Once players are drafted, I leave it for others to rain down blows on the organization.
I think Zegras goes top three in that draft, and you can’t discount that at all. He has turned out to be far more than expected. I credit Anaheim’s scouts, if their GM wasn’t busy giving away good players in the last half of the 2010’s they would be formidable.
I think the Kings were unlucky because Alex Turcotte was rated higher and hasn’t turned out (partly because of injury).
I think the Oilers drafted for need and that’s a poor plan. It’s worse than the DeBrincat gaffe imo BECAUSE there was so much available.
However, in order for me to hammer them over Zegras, I would have had to put him higher than expected. My list:
1 LC Jack Hughes (he went No. 1)
2 RW Kapu Kaako (he went No. 2)
3 LD Bowen Byram (he went No. 4)
4 LC Alex Turcotte (he went No. 5)
5 RW Arthur Kaliyev (he went No. 33)
6 RC Kirby Dach (he went No. 3)
7 RW Dylan Cozens (he went No. 7)
8 LC Trevor Zegras (he went No. 9)
9 RW Cole Caufield (he went No. 15)
10 LC Peyton Krebs (he went No. 17)
I think Kaliyev will have a breakout season and this race isn’t over, but for Broberg it’s more about what he can do for Edmonton as opposed to being the right choice on draft day. The most you could say is it was a risk, and if it works out then Holland can consider is a risk taken that didn’t cost the organization.
He can’t say that today. I just think that conversation is less interesting than considering what Broberg may eventually become.
I agree with you mostly, except drafting BPA is not at all clear after the very top, and given how sticky trading is it’s not so easy to trade your BPA for equivalent talent where you need it
The Oilers IMO are not good at evaluating quick enough to do this anyway. They usually run the tires right off prospect value and often still don’t seem to see the player well enough
Holland has converted:
Caleb Jones into Keith
Bear into Foegele
Lagesson into Kulak
Samorukov into Kostin
Schaeffer into Ekholm
Kesserling into Bjudstad and Dineen
Yes there were other pieces/considerations in many of these deals, but I think the Oilers understood pretty well the value of what they needed vs the value they were giving up.
I posted to similar effect the day before yesterday. I think it’s likely the org has turned a corner with respect to player evaluation.
We haven’t had pro scouting this strong in ages.
True but we do have to be fully disclosed:
Lagesson plus a 2nd….
Schaeffer plus a 1st round pick plus Tyson Barrie…..
Kesselring plus a 3rd round pick.
I referred to all that in the first sentence of my last paragraph, but thanks for adding the detail.
Yes, and as LT has regularly mentioned new GM, see ya old guys draftees. I hope you’re right
Old guys draftees who remain include:
Bouchard
Skinner
McLeod
Desharnais
I guess Yamamoto too for now (and not including McDavid, Draisaitl, Nurse, Nuge since that’s different).
Looks a hell of a lot better than the see ya group though, does it not?
Also, prospects who still remain and are bubbling under:
So he keeps the best ones for now? And Des fit an immediate need?
I guess I’m still stuck on ‘worst draft misstep’ a bit. It still seems to imply at least some judgement of the outcome for Broberg and the others.
Maybe I’m still misunderstanding you, but I wouldn’t feel comfortable concluding ‘worst draft misstep’ unless the judgement is that Broberg will not be a top 4 D.
Personally I’m nowhere close to making that judgement. He just had a tremendously successful rookie season in many ways, and IMO it remains probable that he does become a top 4.
Of those the Oilers passed on there are 3 (IMO) who we can say ARE top 6 forwards (Zegras, Boldy and Caufield). Those are the only 3 we can say are clearly ahead of Broberg today (again, IMO). Kaliyev is likely to become a top 6 forward, and may well break out this season, but those things have not happened yet. Broberg taking another step forward also seems likely.
And I’m not sure about drafting for need. Holland said it was to help build from the back end (“Stanley Cup teams have good defences, big defences, and it was a good opportunity to get a big defenceman with skill,” linked in DNBs article this morning).
I’ve always assumed Holland (based on his Detroit scouts and/or his European connections) believed Broberg was going to be the best player.
NHL teams had the D ranked higher than the public scouting services. Seider and Broberg are likely to have far more impactful careers than most of the forwards on that list.
Seider, arguably, already would go top 2 in a redraft. In ten years, maybe #1. Broberg, base case, is likely Jeff Petry or Jay Bouwmeester…i.e. a #3D, and if he is, in 10 years, he would easily be top 10 in a redraft.
And he still has the potential upside of a #2D, which would likely bump him into the top 5.
I think this may be right although, unless Brown truly does come in around the $1MM range (subject to bonuses that won’t limit the cap this season), I don’t think there is enough cap for even that (and to have a 22 player roster) – it would be close but we don’t know exactly what the the three RFAs will end up with.
While this could be the path, I do think that another external player will be added as this would have McLeod and Ryan as 3/4C and I’m not sure that is near optimal (mainly Ryan at C and no real cover).
again I ask what the cap is we still aren’t sure
The cap is $83.5MM and I have explained the normal. process (and timeline) and the situation this season to you twice in response to this post.
You ignore the answer and keep repeating the question – I’m not sure what you think you are hoping to accomplish.
That list takes me back. Theo Peckham… I did like him, although I’m pretty sure LT liked him more if memory serves.
Not sure if this was posted at the time but I did enjoy the interview with Ron:
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/video/ill-forever-be-grateful-theo-peckham-thankful-for-family-life-in-owen-sound/
Ah yes. Teddy Peckman.
Classic example of someone who should absolutely have been a player.
The question of how much it was on him and how much it was on the coaching and support staff of the time remains unanswered…but both failed given the tools.
I haven’t seen enough of Bourgault to make any bold statements. Looks like he has a good set of hands and a decent shot, but his number 1 asset appears to be his brain.
He seems like the kind of player who can think the game, and trade pucks, with high end offensive players. I think he has a good chance of becoming a nice complimentary winger for a guy like Draisaitl.
We probably have to wait 1 more year but I think he will be a better fit than a lot of the current options on the roster.
Like most of us my first and only good look at Bourgault was his Memorial Cup play…he was outstanding….played hurt through most of it. Very much reminded me of a young
P Bergeron…..great vision and passer…leadership by example. Plays in all zones and teams…..he will be a good one soon.
not to mention his responsible dzone play in bako and his work on the pk is exceptional and i feel like his speed is somewhat underrated by a lot of people.